live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Notre Dame

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:66.5
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:36
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:2.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-829.70.38%
22-937.73.79%
21-1047.315.38%
20-1158.428.42%
19-1271.329.91%
18-1385.216.49%
17-1498.94.84%
16-15111.80.76%
15-16129.00.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
11-14Detroit (181.7)HorzH59-53W100%0.0
11-16Sam Houston St. (286.0)SlndH74-41W100%0.0
11-18Delaware St. (279.9)MEACH93-69W100%0.0
11-21Missouri (11.7)B12N87-58L0%0.0
11-22Georgia (132.0)SECN61-57L0%0.0
11-27Bryant (334.0)NECH84-59W100%0.0
11-30Gonzaga (27.9)WCCA73-53L0%0.0
12-4Maryland (112.8)ACCN78-71L0%0.0
12-8Maine (261.2)AEH87-78W100%0.0
12-10Dartmouth (320.3)IvyH65-47W100%0.0
12-17Indiana (20.6)B10N58-69L0%0.0
12-19Sacred Heart (242.3)NECH106-65W100%0.0
12-27Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH72-59W100%0.0
1-4Cincinnati (89.8)BEA71-55L0%0.0
1-7Louisville (25.3)BEA65-67W100%0.0
1-10South Florida (96.1)BEH60-49W100%0.0
1-14Connecticut (27.1)BEH53-67L0%0.0
1-16Rutgers (141.7)BEA65-58L0%0.0
1-21Syracuse (2.1)BEH67-58W100%0.0
1-25Seton Hall (53.1)BEA42-55W100%0.0
1-29Connecticut (27.1)BEA48-50W100%0.0
2-4Marquette (15.5)BEH76-59W100%0.0
2-8West Virginia (31.4)BEA0-027%-6.7
2-11DePaul (187.2)BEH0-086%11.9
2-15Rutgers (141.7)BEH0-075%7.4
2-18Villanova (98.5)BEA0-043%-1.9
2-22West Virginia (31.4)BEH0-050%0.0
2-25St. John's (151.1)BEA0-063%3.6
2-27Georgetown (13.9)BEA0-019%-9.8
3-2Providence (146.8)BEH0-079%8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameBE26.2325.9961.2959.905.925.15
RutgersBE2.563.7847.8345.74-0.11-0.32
ConnecticutBE4.643.7370.0064.991.861.12
West VirginiaBE0.383.7365.2265.420.111.15
Seton HallBE2.562.1968.1865.930.930.70
St. John'sBE0.382.1743.4840.39-0.05-0.42
ProvidenceBE0.422.1756.5251.260.050.05
CincinnatiBE2.462.1768.1864.320.890.62
SyracuseBE2.362.17100.0095.072.361.96
DePaulBE0.382.1750.0043.840.00-0.27
PittsburghBE2.402.1763.6460.100.660.44
VillanovaBE0.372.1745.4545.71-0.03-0.19
MarquetteBE2.412.1482.6178.521.571.22
LouisvilleBE2.362.1481.8275.081.501.07
South FloridaBE2.412.1457.1450.280.340.01
GeorgetownBE0.382.1480.9577.230.241.16
BryantNEC2.231.728.7011.23-1.84-1.33
Sacred HeartNEC2.221.7245.8347.41-0.18-0.09
DartmouthIvy2.261.6915.0017.79-1.59-1.09
GeorgiaSEC2.291.6742.8639.17-0.33-0.36
MaineAE2.271.6752.6351.640.120.05
Delaware St.MEAC2.221.6437.5041.44-0.56-0.28
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.171.6452.3860.160.100.33
MissouriB122.171.6490.9186.751.781.21
DetroitHorz2.171.6450.0050.780.000.03
GonzagaWCC2.171.6180.9580.831.350.99
IndianaB102.171.6173.9174.971.040.81
MarylandACC2.171.6157.1449.120.31-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.171.6127.7830.93-0.97-0.62
WagnerNEC0.300.1982.6184.570.190.13
AlbanyAE0.250.1760.0060.420.050.03
BrownIvy0.190.1627.2723.80-0.09-0.09
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.200.1613.6416.35-0.14-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.190.1666.6768.050.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.250.1640.9142.05-0.05-0.03
FloridaSEC0.190.1682.6177.630.120.09
Miami FLACC0.090.1665.0060.020.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.090.1436.3638.48-0.02-0.03
New HampshireAE0.150.1435.0038.58-0.04-0.03
ButlerHorz0.240.1450.0050.800.000.00
YaleIvy0.190.1472.2263.190.080.04
TennesseeSEC0.240.1345.4544.66-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1326.0928.60-0.09-0.06
MonmouthNEC0.130.1328.0028.91-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.140.1395.8392.570.130.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1368.0070.030.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1356.5255.950.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1321.7422.76-0.08-0.07
HowardMEAC0.110.1218.1822.22-0.07-0.06
VermontAE0.160.1160.0062.490.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1168.1869.680.060.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1181.8280.430.100.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.1118.1821.13-0.04-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.160.1139.1342.12-0.04-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.1168.1869.100.050.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1170.8364.420.080.03
MercerASun0.200.1170.8371.640.080.05
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1155.0054.800.020.01
HarvardIvy0.200.1190.4887.910.160.08
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.1154.5556.840.000.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.1156.5257.720.010.02
Texas A&MB120.100.1152.3846.150.00-0.01
KansasB120.100.1178.2678.390.050.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.090.1133.3338.38-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.1147.3752.87-0.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.190.1130.0037.30-0.08-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.1169.5765.150.060.03
IllinoisB100.150.1172.7364.430.070.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.1178.2672.340.030.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1117.3924.41-0.06-0.05
MississippiSEC0.140.1163.6456.710.040.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.1140.9139.56-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.1116.6723.02-0.03-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1130.4326.44-0.03-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.1145.4545.70-0.02-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.180.1156.5257.150.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1169.5765.870.060.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.108.7012.13-0.11-0.08
Iowa St.B120.100.1073.9168.430.050.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.1059.0957.280.020.02
BaylorB120.050.1090.9183.850.040.07
Kansas St.B120.050.1072.7368.280.020.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.1059.0959.720.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0948.0051.88-0.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.160.090.004.02-0.16-0.08
HartfordAE0.100.0917.3920.97-0.06-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.100.0933.3333.82-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.160.0834.7832.08-0.05-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0842.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0819.0522.37-0.07-0.05
MemphisCUSA0.050.0869.5771.510.020.04
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0856.5253.770.010.01
CornellIvy0.100.0836.8441.45-0.03-0.01
Longwoodind0.100.0830.0027.84-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0819.0521.29-0.06-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0828.5726.30-0.02-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0855.0054.480.010.01
TexasB120.150.0860.8761.370.030.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0835.0039.38-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0841.6740.61-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.150.0865.2263.740.040.02
ArizonaP120.090.0866.6768.550.030.03
AuburnSEC0.150.0856.5248.810.02-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.150.0872.7371.710.070.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.0886.9683.160.070.05
AkronMAC0.050.0868.1867.910.020.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0876.1972.910.050.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0880.7780.750.030.05
DukeACC0.050.0886.3683.090.040.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0854.5554.300.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.0861.9055.140.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0845.0046.13-0.00-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0869.5761.310.020.02
Penn St.B100.140.0841.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0831.8225.98-0.02-0.04
WisconsinB100.140.0875.0073.970.070.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0845.4540.70-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.090.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.090.0859.0954.700.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0620.0019.96-0.08-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0037.58-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.0633.3334.47-0.04-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0647.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0676.1975.940.030.03
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.110.0657.1460.750.020.01
Texas St.Slnd0.060.0622.2227.62-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0647.8350.65-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0656.5253.100.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0634.7838.77-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0638.8943.93-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0610.0014.93-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0634.7833.43-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.110.0633.3335.26-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0673.9175.490.050.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0661.9067.230.010.02
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0637.5041.54-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0620.8320.60-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0665.2263.790.000.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.020.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0630.0030.06-0.04-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0659.0957.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.0631.8233.83-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.100.0621.7421.70-0.06-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0665.2263.610.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0640.9142.96-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0650.0051.530.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0534.7835.50-0.01-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0552.3857.860.000.01
ArmyPat0.100.0540.9141.72-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0547.6248.82-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.100.0573.9175.000.050.03
ColgatePat0.100.0530.4329.50-0.04-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0517.6527.10-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0550.0056.760.000.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0571.4366.600.040.02
ColoradoP120.100.0566.6762.650.030.01
GramblingSWAC0.050.0515.0015.73-0.03-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0519.0525.52-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.0568.1867.640.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.0040.78-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0562.5062.490.010.01
TempleA100.050.0577.2775.060.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0531.8242.13-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0581.8276.800.000.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0580.0078.060.060.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.0575.0074.610.050.03
Chicago St.GWC0.050.054.769.95-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.050.0570.8368.820.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
Old DominionCAA0.100.0560.0058.290.020.01
RadfordBSth0.100.058.7013.10-0.08-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.000.0519.0524.61-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0556.5255.200.010.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0534.7834.61-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0540.9134.50-0.01-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.060.010.01
IowaB100.050.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4369.050.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0571.4373.350.040.02
MichiganB100.090.0572.7366.810.040.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0554.1757.200.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0545.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.090.0586.9685.460.070.04
PurdueB100.050.0565.2260.580.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0560.8759.760.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0512.5013.44-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0338.1042.78-0.02-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0051.730.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0327.7829.87-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.02
North TexasSB0.060.0350.0050.010.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0327.7829.58-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0338.1040.81-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0340.0040.18-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0330.4331.43-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.035.267.30-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.030.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
Southern UtahSum0.050.0345.4544.30-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.000.0377.2777.670.000.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0321.7424.58-0.03-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.030.005.37-0.05-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8639.66-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.02-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0345.4544.02-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0334.7838.42-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
LafayettePat0.040.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
LipscombASun0.040.0343.4843.82-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.050.039.5213.19-0.04-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0362.5061.500.000.01
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
UCLAP120.000.0354.5556.790.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.01-0.01