live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:55.5
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:87
Current SOS:255
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-16.00.02%
29-25.80.04%
28-37.70.21%
27-410.90.95%
26-515.33.10%
25-621.06.33%
24-728.611.36%
23-837.715.50%
22-948.718.46%
21-1061.516.56%
20-1176.612.86%
19-1293.07.84%
18-13111.04.14%
17-14129.31.92%
16-15146.60.49%
15-16168.20.18%
14-17198.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Binghamton (268.9)AEH82-39W100%0.0
11-16Navy (283.8)PatH92-53W100%0.0
11-19Coppin St. (287.5)MEACH104-67W100%0.0
11-22Massachusetts (42.6)A10N0-064%4.5
11-23Providence (44.3)BEN0-058%2.5
11-26Grambling St. (341.3)SWACH0-0100%32.1
11-29Chicago St. (284.6)WACH0-098%24.6
12-3Michigan St. (43.0)B10H0-062%3.5
12-6Fairleigh Dickinson (294.0)NECH0-098%25.1
12-9Mount St. Mary's (290.9)NECH0-098%24.2
12-13Florida St. (79.9)ACCH0-073%7.3
12-20Purdue (62.0)B10N0-058%2.3
12-22Northern Illinois (209.2)MACH0-094%19.1
12-30Hartford (288.9)AEH0-098%24.5
1-3Georgia Tech (98.1)ACCH0-080%10.1
1-5North Carolina (19.2)ACCA0-032%-5.6
1-10Virginia (28.8)ACCH0-061%3.3
1-14Georgia Tech (98.1)ACCA0-060%2.9
1-17Miami FL (29.5)ACCH0-063%3.9
1-22Virginia Tech (179.4)ACCA0-074%7.5
1-25North Carolina St. (53.0)ACCA0-047%-1.0
1-28Duke (3.1)ACCH0-031%-5.8
1-31Pittsburgh (71.9)ACCA0-052%0.7
2-4Boston College (158.7)ACCH0-088%14.0
2-7Duke (3.1)ACCA0-014%-13.0
2-10Clemson (133.6)ACCA0-061%3.3
2-17Wake Forest (108.4)ACCH0-082%11.0
2-21Boston College (158.7)ACCA0-071%6.8
2-24Syracuse (22.7)ACCH0-054%1.1
3-4Louisville (13.8)ACCA0-025%-8.1
3-7Clemson (133.6)ACCH0-081%10.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC34.7226.09100.0066.3734.728.54
Boston CollegeACC0.003.8366.6742.840.00-0.55
DukeACC0.003.78100.0085.610.002.69
Georgia TechACC0.003.78100.0051.530.000.12
ClemsonACC0.003.7750.0047.910.00-0.16
Wake ForestACC0.002.2866.6748.950.00-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.002.2750.0057.940.000.36
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.25100.0061.380.000.51
SyracuseACC0.002.2566.6771.470.000.97
North CarolinaACC0.002.24100.0067.650.000.79
Miami FLACC0.002.24100.0069.420.000.87
PittsburghACC0.002.22100.0057.690.000.34
LouisvilleACC0.002.19100.0077.690.001.21
Virginia TechACC0.002.19100.0043.850.00-0.27
VirginiaACC0.002.19100.0067.860.000.78
ProvidenceBE6.941.81100.0063.706.940.50
BinghamtonAE16.671.780.0039.64-16.67-0.37
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.730.0034.00-0.00-0.55
Michigan St.B102.781.7250.0067.390.000.60
MassachusettsA100.001.72100.0064.420.000.50
PurdueB100.001.70100.0061.690.000.40
HartfordAE0.001.6766.6739.440.00-0.35
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.6750.0036.360.00-0.46
NavyPat16.671.670.0031.78-16.67-0.61
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.640.0022.15-0.00-0.91
Chicago St.WAC0.001.610.0027.48-0.00-0.73
Coppin St.MEAC16.671.610.0030.08-16.67-0.64
Northern IllinoisMAC0.001.61100.0047.620.00-0.08
MaineAE0.000.200.0022.72-0.00-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2033.3337.88-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.170.0039.66-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.1733.3331.05-0.00-0.07
RutgersB100.000.1750.0034.150.00-0.05
IllinoisB102.780.17100.0060.932.780.04
IndianaB100.000.17100.0064.540.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.16100.0053.570.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0038.55-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.140.0034.44-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.140.0046.79-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1450.0037.010.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.140.0048.12-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1450.0064.020.000.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.1450.0063.340.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.14100.0061.790.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.1450.0051.350.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.14100.0044.320.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.14100.0058.890.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1450.0063.260.000.04
MichiganB100.000.14100.0067.240.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0073.880.000.07
MinnesotaB100.000.1450.0062.330.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.120.0035.57-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1250.0066.190.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.11100.0050.480.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.110.0036.81-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.110.0043.54-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0044.49-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.110.0055.09-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.110.0044.27-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1125.0030.26-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1166.6739.300.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.1166.6773.790.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1150.0067.810.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.1133.3347.64-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.11100.0067.780.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.11100.0039.730.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1150.0054.560.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.110.0027.81-0.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.11100.0081.830.000.07
ManhattanMAAC0.000.110.0057.31-0.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1150.0050.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0016.22-0.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0933.3334.62-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.86-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.090.0036.23-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0933.3335.35-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0950.0055.200.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0062.880.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0019.35-0.00-0.05
LafayettePat0.000.0966.6764.300.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0045.250.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0950.0054.500.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0066.730.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0950.0061.050.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0032.81-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.09100.0063.800.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.650.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.08100.0071.490.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.080.0015.48-0.00-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.080.0063.68-0.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.080.0038.34-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.08100.0074.610.000.04
DaytonA100.000.08100.0072.390.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0850.0043.510.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0833.3334.10-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.08100.0070.520.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.550.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.08100.0049.500.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.08100.0051.780.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3333.83-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0055.970.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.08100.0068.990.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0833.3333.86-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.080.0032.76-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0057.160.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0850.0068.630.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0085.280.000.06
La SalleA100.000.08100.0056.340.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0055.750.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0850.0065.490.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0068.630.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.08100.0053.320.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0850.0061.220.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.68-0.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.38-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0037.190.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6762.170.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0040.980.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.87-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0650.0054.530.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0633.3350.61-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0057.950.000.01
LehighPat0.000.060.0039.97-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0034.320.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0666.6761.240.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.99-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.72-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6757.950.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0028.940.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.510.000.01
USCP120.000.0633.3326.65-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0050.460.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0043.010.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0056.380.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0062.600.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.43-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0029.100.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0069.58-0.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0650.0040.820.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.060.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.05100.0044.790.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0550.0061.290.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0533.3350.49-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0046.460.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.050.0054.91-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0550.0051.650.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.050.0051.69-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.05100.0071.680.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.050.0048.49-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.05100.0076.230.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0550.0038.380.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0550.0043.770.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0550.0024.870.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.05100.0057.150.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0046.51-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0550.0067.190.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.05100.0067.060.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.05100.0059.250.000.01
FordhamA100.000.050.0036.83-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.05100.0065.390.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0550.0058.740.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.05100.0044.020.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.05100.0070.050.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0044.770.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0044.490.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.080.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0061.570.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0047.13-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0061.730.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0042.76-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.850.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.11-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.340.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0060.93-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.210.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0058.910.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.720.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0055.290.000.00
OregonP122.780.03100.0064.922.780.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.360.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.78-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0060.330.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0350.0059.620.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.35-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0070.580.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0045.27-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0333.3357.17-0.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0038.06-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.86-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3328.81-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.17-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0070.930.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.360.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0041.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0036.86-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0046.350.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.29-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0043.990.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0067.300.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3343.60-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.680.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.98-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0058.500.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0065.830.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0333.3324.67-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.60-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.790.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.44-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.54-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.860.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.740.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0052.100.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0039.830.00-0.01