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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:136.0
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:66
Current SOS:66
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17136.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Miami OH (161.0)MACH74-62W100%0.0
11-10Stetson (333.0)ASunH80-49W100%0.0
11-17Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH70-83L0%0.0
11-22Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH84-69W100%0.0
11-24Army (235.0)PatH93-60W100%0.0
12-1Cornell (334.0)IvyH101-67W100%0.0
12-3Iowa (56.0)B10A98-93L0%0.0
12-7Delaware (65.0)CAAH80-75W100%0.0
12-9Bryant (177.0)NECH70-59W100%0.0
12-11North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH69-73L0%0.0
12-14Indiana (102.0)B10N72-79W100%0.0
12-21Ohio St. (24.0)B10N61-64L0%0.0
12-29Canisius (96.0)MAACH87-81W100%0.0
1-4Duke (9.0)ACCH79-77W100%0.0
1-7North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCH70-77L0%0.0
1-11Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA74-69L0%0.0
1-15Maryland (78.0)ACCA74-66L0%0.0
1-19Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH70-63W100%0.0
1-21Florida St. (54.0)ACCA76-74L0%0.0
1-25Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA65-58L0%0.0
1-28Virginia (8.0)ACCH53-68L0%0.0
2-1Boston College (207.0)ACCH76-73W100%0.0
2-3Syracuse (16.0)ACCA61-55L0%0.0
2-8North Carolina (25.0)ACCH62-73L0%0.0
2-11Clemson (79.0)ACCH68-64W100%0.0
2-16Boston College (207.0)ACCA69-73W100%0.0
2-19Miami FL (110.0)ACCA71-64L0%0.0
2-22Virginia (8.0)ACCA70-49L0%0.0
2-26Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH65-62W100%0.0
3-1Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH81-85L0%0.0
3-3North Carolina (25.0)ACCA63-61L0%0.0
3-12Wake Forest (113.0)ACCN81-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.0326.0339.2339.23-5.61-5.61
Georgia TechACC3.713.7148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC3.683.6881.2581.252.302.30
Wake ForestACC3.683.6848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
Boston CollegeACC3.683.6824.1424.14-1.90-1.90
North CarolinaACC3.653.6570.0070.001.461.46
DukeACC2.262.2678.7978.791.301.30
PittsburghACC2.232.2372.7372.731.021.02
ClemsonACC2.232.2364.5264.520.650.65
North Carolina St.ACC2.212.2160.6160.610.470.47
SyracuseACC2.192.1983.8783.871.481.48
Florida St.ACC2.182.1858.0658.060.350.35
Virginia TechACC2.162.1630.0030.00-0.86-0.86
MarylandACC2.162.1650.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B101.741.7472.7372.730.790.79
DelawareCAA1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
North Dakota St.Sum1.661.6677.7877.780.920.92
BryantNEC1.641.6456.6756.670.220.22
IndianaB101.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
IowaB101.631.6360.0060.000.330.33
Santa ClaraWCC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
CornellIvy1.591.593.853.85-1.46-1.46
StetsonASun1.591.5923.3323.33-0.85-0.85
ArmyPat1.591.5948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
Indiana St.MVC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Miami OHMAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Michigan St.B100.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
IllinoisB100.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
MichiganB100.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
NorthwesternB100.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
DavidsonSC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
NebraskaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
ColgatePat0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Penn St.B100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.100.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Holy CrossPat0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
MassachusettsA100.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
SienaMAAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.080.0851.8551.850.000.00
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00