The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Notre Dame page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 8, 2010.

Notre Dame

Conference:		BE
Expected RPI:		75.1
Current RPI:		61
Expected SOS:		60
Current SOS:		60
Current Record:		17-7
Expected Record:		20-11
Current Conf Record:		6-5
Expected Conf Record:		9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		6-1
Current OOC Record:		11-2
Expected OOC Record:		11-2
Expected OOC RPI:		83
Expected OOC SOS:		250

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	30.6	0.08%
23-8	40.2	0.65%
22-9	49.4	4.88%
21-10	59.5	16.79%
20-11	70.4	31.65%
19-12	81.9	29.63%
18-13	95.5	14.09%
17-14	110.3	2.22%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	North Florida (224.0)	ASun	H	86-65	W	100%	0.0
11-16	St. Francis PA (313.2)	NEC	H	95-72	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Long Beach St. (141.3)	BW	H	82-62	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Liberty (253.0)	BSth	H	91-72	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Kennesaw St. (273.7)	ASun	H	80-62	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Northwestern (89.5)	B10	N	58-72	L	0%	0.0
11-28	St. Louis (123.7)	A10	N	64-52	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Idaho St. (275.5)	BSky	H	80-70	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Central Florida (193.8)	CUSA	H	90-72	W	100%	0.0
12-9	IUPUI (106.4)	Sum	H	93-70	W	100%	0.0
12-12	Loyola Marymount (205.8)	WCC	H	85-87	L	0%	0.0
12-19	UCLA (144.8)	P10	H	84-73	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Bucknell (275.4)	Pat	H	101-69	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Providence (97.7)	BE	H	93-78	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Connecticut (54.0)	BE	A	70-82	L	0%	0.0
1-5	South Florida (65.1)	BE	A	74-73	W	100%	0.0
1-9	West Virginia (5.3)	BE	H	70-68	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Cincinnati (61.6)	BE	A	58-60	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Syracuse (3.0)	BE	H	71-84	L	0%	0.0
1-23	DePaul (180.7)	BE	H	87-77	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Villanova (4.7)	BE	A	72-90	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Rutgers (162.0)	BE	A	73-74	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Cincinnati (61.6)	BE	H	83-65	W	100%	0.0
2-7	South Florida (65.1)	BE	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Seton Hall (72.8)	BE	A	0-0		32%	-5.1
2-14	St. John's (100.3)	BE	H	0-0		73%	6.5
2-17	Louisville (36.8)	BE	A	0-0		20%	-9.3
2-24	Pittsburgh (26.3)	BE	H	0-0		51%	0.2
2-27	Georgetown (8.5)	BE	A	0-0		16%	-10.7
3-3	Connecticut (54.0)	BE	H	0-0		56%	1.6
3-6	Marquette (53.4)	BE	A	0-0		17%	-10.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Notre Dame.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Notre Dame	BE	26.29	26.00	64.77	58.28	7.77	4.31
South Florida	BE	4.49	3.76	71.43	66.53	1.92	1.24
Cincinnati	BE	4.44	3.76	61.90	55.87	1.06	0.44
Providence	BE	2.49	2.20	54.55	48.22	0.23	-0.08
Syracuse	BE	2.45	2.15	95.65	91.03	2.23	1.76
Rutgers	BE	2.44	2.15	45.45	40.91	-0.22	-0.39
West Virginia	BE	2.40	2.18	86.36	82.20	1.75	1.40
Connecticut	BE	2.31	3.76	59.09	55.44	0.42	0.41
DePaul	BE	2.31	2.15	36.36	35.07	-0.63	-0.64
Central Florida	CUSA	2.27	1.75	50.00	46.09	0.00	-0.14
Long Beach St.	BW	2.22	1.69	45.00	47.33	-0.22	-0.09
Villanova	BE	2.22	2.15	90.91	84.81	1.82	1.50
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.18	1.70	45.45	40.83	-0.20	-0.31
Liberty	BSth	2.18	1.67	45.00	43.11	-0.22	-0.23
Northwestern	B10	2.18	1.67	68.18	66.86	0.79	0.56
Bucknell	Pat	2.17	1.67	39.13	40.59	-0.47	-0.31
North Florida	ASun	2.17	1.72	45.45	46.91	-0.20	-0.11
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.13	1.64	45.45	42.41	-0.19	-0.25
UCLA	P10	2.13	1.64	50.00	45.32	0.00	-0.15
St. Louis	A10	2.13	1.64	65.00	58.10	0.64	0.27
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.13	1.64	31.82	31.32	-0.77	-0.61
Idaho St.	BSky	2.08	1.61	20.00	24.92	-1.25	-0.81
IUPUI	Sum	2.08	1.61	68.18	69.41	0.76	0.63
Marquette	BE	0.50	2.18	65.22	65.56	0.15	0.68
Louisville	BE	0.41	2.17	65.22	61.41	0.12	0.50
St. John's	BE	0.36	2.15	54.55	49.99	0.03	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.36	2.15	77.27	73.08	0.20	0.99
Pittsburgh	BE	0.36	2.15	75.00	71.66	0.18	0.93
Seton Hall	BE	0.36	2.15	57.14	57.13	0.05	0.31
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.17	22.73	21.40	-0.12	-0.10
Lipscomb	ASun	0.23	0.16	52.17	56.49	0.01	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.16	45.45	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.19	0.12	68.18	70.36	0.07	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.19	0.11	52.38	54.78	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.19	0.14	60.00	63.84	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.16	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.14	56.52	59.88	0.02	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.11	27.27	25.31	-0.08	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.14	29.17	28.88	-0.08	-0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.11	17.39	20.22	-0.12	-0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.18	0.16	27.27	31.07	-0.08	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.08	45.00	48.64	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.08	56.52	50.43	0.02	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	21.74	24.91	-0.08	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.11	38.10	38.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.09	30.43	29.01	-0.06	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.08	77.27	70.95	0.08	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.09	36.36	40.06	-0.04	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.08	75.00	71.22	0.07	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.11	9.52	8.90	-0.11	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.08	73.91	72.54	0.07	0.04
Southern California	P10	0.14	0.11	60.87	59.64	0.03	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.08	45.00	43.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.08	20.00	24.03	-0.08	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.08	47.83	46.40	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.08	56.00	55.95	0.02	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.08	32.00	31.25	-0.05	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.11	81.82	83.61	0.09	0.07
Maryland	ACC	0.14	0.08	71.43	67.91	0.06	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.13	45.45	44.04	-0.01	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.11	41.67	42.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.08	75.00	73.71	0.07	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.11	61.90	65.68	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.11	33.33	33.42	-0.05	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.11	31.82	32.31	-0.05	-0.04
Stanford	P10	0.14	0.08	43.48	43.05	-0.02	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	14.29	15.66	-0.10	-0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.08	76.19	73.21	0.07	0.04
American	Pat	0.13	0.14	30.43	32.38	-0.05	-0.05
California	P10	0.13	0.08	65.22	68.43	0.04	0.03
Maine	AE	0.13	0.11	65.22	63.02	0.04	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.08	66.67	69.42	0.04	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.11	64.00	63.77	0.04	0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.08	43.48	43.79	-0.02	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.08	40.00	39.17	-0.03	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.06	39.13	43.30	-0.02	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.83	0.04	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.66	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.09	12.50	15.32	-0.07	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	73.91	76.68	0.05	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.09	21.05	22.44	-0.06	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.09	0.06	45.45	45.94	-0.01	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.06	44.00	43.19	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.14	82.61	82.34	0.06	0.09
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.06	47.62	49.07	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.06	62.50	57.77	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.05	54.55	55.03	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.11	95.65	88.68	0.09	0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.08	66.67	65.51	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.11	31.82	31.64	-0.03	-0.04
Oregon	P10	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.80	0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.09	0.11	79.17	77.01	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.09	0.05	23.08	25.74	-0.05	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.08	40.00	42.60	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.05	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.08	84.00	84.05	0.06	0.05
Campbell	ASun	0.09	0.11	57.14	58.73	0.01	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.05	50.00	52.27	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.05	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.14	50.00	53.72	0.00	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.05	45.45	47.50	-0.01	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.05	34.78	43.27	-0.03	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.05	66.67	59.01	0.03	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.08	72.00	70.67	0.04	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	42.86	45.29	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.34	0.04	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.11	39.13	41.52	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.05	43.48	47.69	-0.01	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.05	79.17	76.61	0.05	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.05	69.57	68.49	0.04	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.05	29.17	31.02	-0.04	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.05	47.06	53.81	-0.01	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.05	86.36	81.79	0.07	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.08	39.13	36.58	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.05	59.09	54.44	0.02	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.05	45.00	54.22	-0.01	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.05	8.70	10.07	-0.07	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.08	82.61	78.53	0.06	0.05
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.05	68.00	67.16	0.03	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.05	66.67	57.28	0.03	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.80	-0.04	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.44	0.04	0.05
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.08	54.17	57.60	0.01	0.01
Bryant	ind	0.09	0.11	0.00	4.21	-0.09	-0.10
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.05	29.17	29.51	-0.04	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.05	73.91	67.69	0.04	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.11	60.87	59.15	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.74	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.05	50.00	51.55	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.05	4.17	4.75	-0.08	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.01	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.05	56.52	51.91	0.01	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.08	16.00	21.66	-0.06	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.11	85.71	85.58	0.06	0.08
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.08	47.83	44.79	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	53.77	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	45.72	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.20	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	51.98	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	36.36	36.05	-0.01	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.10	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	78.26	71.74	0.03	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	20.00	21.93	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.06	18.18	19.17	-0.03	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	20.00	23.49	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	47.62	45.43	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	50.86	-0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	24.00	26.47	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	64.66	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.48	0.01	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	45.00	45.40	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	79.17	78.03	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	72.00	73.57	0.02	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	38.10	39.63	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.09	52.38	56.28	0.00	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	31.82	30.34	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	27.27	25.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.07	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.68	0.03	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	33.21	-0.01	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	33.33	36.46	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	MWC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.33	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	61.90	65.05	0.01	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	60.87	57.67	0.01	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.00	0.02	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.58	39.01	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.05	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P10	0.05	0.05	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	55.03	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	52.17	48.80	0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.81	27.30	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.16	-0.01	-0.00
Centenary	Sum	0.05	0.08	27.27	27.20	-0.02	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	39.13	41.23	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	59.09	52.86	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	15.79	22.91	-0.03	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.08	72.73	71.93	0.02	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.71	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	58.33	58.25	0.01	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.43	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.10	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	30.43	32.48	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.08	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.08	45.83	47.79	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.22	-0.03	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.46	0.02	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.08	40.91	34.85	-0.01	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	95.83	93.08	0.04	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.55	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	39.13	35.39	-0.01	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	64.63	0.01	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.11	39.13	47.68	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	63.64	58.35	0.01	0.00
New Orleans	SB	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.86	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	22.22	27.54	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	30.79	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	58.33	54.32	0.01	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.03	15.79	27.70	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.15	0.02	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	37.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	91.30	88.20	0.04	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.08	54.17	58.54	0.00	0.01
Oregon St.	P10	0.05	0.05	45.45	40.27	-0.00	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	16.67	19.93	-0.03	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	70.59	70.97	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	86.36	81.53	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	53.85	51.13	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	45.83	48.87	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	8.70	9.55	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.92	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	86.96	84.64	0.03	0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.33	58.90	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.14	79.17	77.60	0.03	0.08
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	81.82	75.63	0.03	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.84	0.02	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	12.00	18.83	-0.03	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	36.84	36.81	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.93	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P10	0.05	0.08	69.57	68.88	0.02	0.03
Washington St.	P10	0.05	0.05	63.64	58.77	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.59	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.18	66.69	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.08	78.26	78.94	0.03	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.71	-0.02	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	28.57	27.82	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.04	0.05	57.14	59.01	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.04	0.05	39.13	38.66	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.04	0.03	15.79	17.63	-0.03	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.04	0.05	26.09	31.04	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.00	0.03	57.14	61.39	0.00	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	52.17	48.42	0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.03	19.05	20.74	-0.00	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.03	65.22	64.72	0.00	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	73.91	69.55	0.00	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.00	0.03	27.78	26.81	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.03	45.00	48.32	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.05	33.33	30.81	-0.00	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.00	0.03	30.43	32.84	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	72.00	73.85	0.00	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.03	81.82	80.91	0.00	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.03	35.00	38.20	-0.00	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.06	68.18	68.11	0.00	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.00	0.05	34.78	32.21	-0.00	-0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.85	0.00	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.00	0.03	52.17	53.91	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.03	84.00	81.56	0.00	0.02
South Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	50.00	60.47	0.00	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.03	68.18	68.74	0.00	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.06	31.82	29.57	-0.00	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	81.82	72.56	0.00	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.00	0.03	68.18	66.42	0.00	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.00	0.03	54.17	56.01	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	79.17	77.29	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	66.67	67.98	0.00	0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Notre Dame	BE	26.29	26.00	64.77	58.28	7.77	4.31
Connecticut	BE	2.31	3.76	59.09	55.44	0.42	0.41
South Florida	BE	4.49	3.76	71.43	66.53	1.92	1.24
Cincinnati	BE	4.44	3.76	61.90	55.87	1.06	0.44
Providence	BE	2.49	2.20	54.55	48.22	0.23	-0.08
West Virginia	BE	2.40	2.18	86.36	82.20	1.75	1.40
Marquette	BE	0.50	2.18	65.22	65.56	0.15	0.68
Louisville	BE	0.41	2.17	65.22	61.41	0.12	0.50
Rutgers	BE	2.44	2.15	45.45	40.91	-0.22	-0.39
Pittsburgh	BE	0.36	2.15	75.00	71.66	0.18	0.93
Syracuse	BE	2.45	2.15	95.65	91.03	2.23	1.76
Villanova	BE	2.22	2.15	90.91	84.81	1.82	1.50
DePaul	BE	2.31	2.15	36.36	35.07	-0.63	-0.64
St. John's	BE	0.36	2.15	54.55	49.99	0.03	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.36	2.15	77.27	73.08	0.20	0.99
Seton Hall	BE	0.36	2.15	57.14	57.13	0.05	0.31
Central Florida	CUSA	2.27	1.75	50.00	46.09	0.00	-0.14
North Florida	ASun	2.17	1.72	45.45	46.91	-0.20	-0.11
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.18	1.70	45.45	40.83	-0.20	-0.31
Long Beach St.	BW	2.22	1.69	45.00	47.33	-0.22	-0.09
Northwestern	B10	2.18	1.67	68.18	66.86	0.79	0.56
Bucknell	Pat	2.17	1.67	39.13	40.59	-0.47	-0.31
Liberty	BSth	2.18	1.67	45.00	43.11	-0.22	-0.23
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.13	1.64	45.45	42.41	-0.19	-0.25
UCLA	P10	2.13	1.64	50.00	45.32	0.00	-0.15
St. Louis	A10	2.13	1.64	65.00	58.10	0.64	0.27
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.13	1.64	31.82	31.32	-0.77	-0.61
Idaho St.	BSky	2.08	1.61	20.00	24.92	-1.25	-0.81
IUPUI	Sum	2.08	1.61	68.18	69.41	0.76	0.63
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.23	0.17	22.73	21.40	-0.12	-0.10
Lipscomb	ASun	0.23	0.16	52.17	56.49	0.01	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.16	45.45	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.16	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.18	0.16	27.27	31.07	-0.08	-0.06
Belmont	ASun	0.19	0.14	60.00	63.84	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.14	56.52	59.88	0.02	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.14	29.17	28.88	-0.08	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.14	50.00	53.72	0.00	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	14.29	15.66	-0.10	-0.09
Temple	A10	0.05	0.14	79.17	77.60	0.03	0.08
American	Pat	0.13	0.14	30.43	32.38	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.14	82.61	82.34	0.06	0.09
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.13	45.45	44.04	-0.01	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.19	0.12	68.18	70.36	0.07	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.19	0.11	52.38	54.78	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.11	38.10	38.08	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P10	0.14	0.11	60.87	59.64	0.03	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.11	27.27	25.31	-0.08	-0.05
Campbell	ASun	0.09	0.11	57.14	58.73	0.01	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.11	17.39	20.22	-0.12	-0.07
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.11	31.82	31.64	-0.03	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.11	39.13	41.52	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.11	41.67	42.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.11	39.13	47.68	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.11	60.87	59.15	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.11	9.52	8.90	-0.11	-0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.11	81.82	83.61	0.09	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.11	61.90	65.68	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.11	33.33	33.42	-0.05	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.11	31.82	32.31	-0.05	-0.04
Bryant	ind	0.09	0.11	0.00	4.21	-0.09	-0.10
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.44	0.04	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.11	64.00	63.77	0.04	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.11	85.71	85.58	0.06	0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.11	95.65	88.68	0.09	0.08
Texas	B12	0.09	0.11	79.17	77.01	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.13	0.11	65.22	63.02	0.04	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.09	30.43	29.01	-0.06	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.09	21.05	22.44	-0.06	-0.05
Presbyterian	BSth	0.10	0.09	12.50	15.32	-0.07	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.09	52.38	56.28	0.00	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	21.74	24.91	-0.08	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.09	36.36	40.06	-0.04	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.08	45.00	48.64	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.08	56.52	50.43	0.02	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.08	20.00	24.03	-0.08	-0.04
Oregon	P10	0.09	0.08	54.55	48.80	0.01	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.08	77.27	70.95	0.08	0.03
Centenary	Sum	0.05	0.08	27.27	27.20	-0.02	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.08	72.73	71.93	0.02	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.08	32.00	31.25	-0.05	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.08	66.67	65.51	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.08	75.00	71.22	0.07	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.08	16.00	21.66	-0.06	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.01	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.08	66.67	69.42	0.04	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.08	54.17	58.54	0.00	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.08	43.48	43.79	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.74	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.08	73.91	72.54	0.07	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.08	47.83	44.79	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.08	45.00	43.94	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.08	82.61	78.53	0.06	0.05
Washington	P10	0.05	0.08	69.57	68.88	0.02	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.08	56.00	55.95	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.08	47.83	46.40	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.08	39.13	36.58	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.08	84.00	84.05	0.06	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.08	75.00	73.71	0.07	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.08	40.00	42.60	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.14	0.08	71.43	67.91	0.06	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.08	76.19	73.21	0.07	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.08	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.04
California	P10	0.13	0.08	65.22	68.43	0.04	0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.13	0.08	40.00	39.17	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.08	69.57	70.34	0.04	0.03
Stanford	P10	0.14	0.08	43.48	43.05	-0.02	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.08	54.17	57.60	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.08	45.83	47.79	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.08	72.00	70.67	0.04	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.08	78.26	78.94	0.03	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.08	40.91	34.85	-0.01	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.10	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.06	18.18	19.17	-0.03	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	20.00	23.49	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	42.86	44.37	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.66	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.71	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	45.00	45.40	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.06	79.17	78.03	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	38.10	39.63	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	61.90	65.05	0.01	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.06	69.57	66.83	0.04	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	73.91	76.68	0.05	0.03
Boise St.	WAC	0.09	0.06	45.45	45.94	-0.01	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	72.00	73.57	0.02	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.06	36.36	36.05	-0.01	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.06	39.13	43.30	-0.02	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.00	0.06	68.18	68.11	0.00	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	35.00	33.21	-0.01	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	33.33	36.46	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.06	62.50	57.77	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.06	44.00	43.19	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	20.00	21.93	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.06	47.62	49.07	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	30.43	32.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	50.86	-0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	42.86	45.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	31.82	30.34	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	34.27	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.92	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	86.96	84.64	0.03	0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.06	31.82	29.57	-0.00	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.80	-0.04	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.05	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.05	54.55	55.03	0.01	0.01