live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Notre Dame

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:49
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-935.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Evansville (106.0)MVCH58-49W100%0.0
11-12Monmouth (282.0)NECH84-57W100%0.0
11-16Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10N70-79L0%0.0
11-17Brigham Young (69.0)WCCN78-68W100%0.0
11-21George Washington (147.0)A10H65-48W100%0.0
11-24St. Francis PA (322.0)NECH69-52W100%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (320.0)GWCH92-65W100%0.0
11-29Kentucky (56.0)SECH64-50W100%0.0
12-8Brown (241.0)IvyH84-57W100%0.0
12-15Purdue (136.0)B10N81-68W100%0.0
12-17IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH74-62W100%0.0
12-19Kennesaw St. (341.0)ASunH85-57W100%0.0
12-21Niagara (123.0)MAACH89-67W100%0.0
1-5Seton Hall (138.0)BEH93-74W100%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (50.0)BEA60-66W100%0.0
1-12Connecticut (49.0)BEH58-65L0%0.0
1-15St. John's (96.0)BEA67-63L0%0.0
1-19Rutgers (109.0)BEH69-66W100%0.0
1-21Georgetown (11.0)BEH47-63L0%0.0
1-26South Florida (156.0)BEA65-73W100%0.0
1-30Villanova (52.0)BEH65-60W100%0.0
2-2DePaul (204.0)BEA71-79W100%0.0
2-4Syracuse (14.0)BEA63-47L0%0.0
2-9Louisville (3.0)BEH104-101W100%0.0
2-13DePaul (204.0)BEH82-78W100%0.0
2-16Providence (91.0)BEA71-54L0%0.0
2-18Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA42-51W100%0.0
2-24Cincinnati (50.0)BEH62-41W100%0.0
3-2Marquette (13.0)BEA72-64L0%0.0
3-5St. John's (96.0)BEH66-40W100%0.0
3-9Louisville (3.0)BEA73-57L0%0.0
3-13Rutgers (109.0)BEN69-61W100%0.0
3-14Marquette (13.0)BEN65-73W100%0.0
3-15Louisville (3.0)BEN69-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameBE26.1626.1671.7471.7411.3711.37
LouisvilleBE4.964.9687.1087.103.683.68
RutgersBE3.583.5851.7251.720.120.12
DePaulBE3.553.5536.6736.67-0.95-0.95
CincinnatiBE3.523.5270.9770.971.481.48
St. John'sBE3.523.5251.7251.720.120.12
MarquetteBE3.473.4775.8675.861.791.79
SyracuseBE2.232.2373.5373.531.051.05
VillanovaBE2.202.2061.2961.290.500.50
Seton HallBE2.162.1646.8846.88-0.13-0.13
GeorgetownBE2.162.1680.0080.001.301.30
PittsburghBE2.142.1477.4277.421.171.17
South FloridaBE2.112.1140.0040.00-0.42-0.42
ProvidenceBE2.092.0953.3353.330.140.14
ConnecticutBE2.072.0765.5265.520.640.64
MonmouthNEC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
George WashingtonA101.541.5444.8344.83-0.16-0.16
St. Francis PANEC1.541.5417.8617.86-0.99-0.99
KentuckySEC1.541.5467.7467.740.540.54
NiagaraMAAC1.521.5261.2961.290.340.34
Saint Joseph'sA101.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
BrownIvy1.521.5246.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun1.521.5210.3410.34-1.20-1.20
Chicago St.GWC1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.501.5046.6746.67-0.10-0.10
PurdueB101.491.4948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Brigham YoungWCC1.471.4766.6766.670.490.49
EvansvilleMVC1.471.4756.6756.670.200.20
FordhamA100.190.1922.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.170.1748.0048.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
IonaMAAC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
XavierA100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
ButlerA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Long IslandNEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
ColgatePat0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonSC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
HarvardIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.097.147.14-0.08-0.08
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TempleA100.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
MissouriSEC0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
SamfordSC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
LipscombASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
DrakeMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
NavyPat0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MaineAE0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0417.8617.86-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
George MasonCAA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01