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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:33.3
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:21
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:8-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-714.72.27%
22-819.913.50%
21-925.728.95%
20-1034.932.30%
19-1147.217.40%
18-1259.45.06%
17-1371.10.51%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. Francis PA (237.8)NECH87-56W100%0.0
11-17Milwaukee (166.2)HorzH86-78W100%0.0
11-21UMass Lowell (262.4)AEH83-57W100%0.0
11-26Monmouth (40.4)MAACN70-68L0%0.0
11-27Iowa (7.4)B10N62-68W100%0.0
11-29Alabama (70.1)SECN73-74L0%0.0
12-2Illinois (157.5)B10A79-84W100%0.0
12-8Stony Brook (45.2)AEH86-61W100%0.0
12-13Loyola Chicago (232.7)MVCH81-61W100%0.0
12-19Indiana (39.1)B10N80-73L0%0.0
12-21Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzH87-78W100%0.0
12-29Liberty (262.3)BSthH73-56W100%0.0
1-2Virginia (5.8)ACCA77-66L0%0.0
1-7Boston College (234.4)ACCA54-82W100%0.0
1-9Pittsburgh (46.9)ACCH82-86L0%0.0
1-13Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCH72-64W100%0.0
1-16Duke (17.5)ACCA91-95W100%0.0
1-20Virginia Tech (132.3)ACCH83-81W100%0.0
1-23Boston College (234.4)ACCH76-49W100%0.0
1-28Syracuse (52.6)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (131.2)ACCH85-62W100%0.0
2-3Miami FL (11.0)ACCA79-70L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina (11.0)ACCH80-76W100%0.0
2-8Clemson (109.2)ACCA83-89W100%0.0
2-13Louisville (17.8)ACCH0-039%-3.1
2-20Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCA0-052%0.6
2-24Wake Forest (131.2)ACCA0-073%6.8
2-27Florida St. (46.1)ACCA0-044%-1.5
3-2Miami FL (11.0)ACCH0-048%-0.4
3-5North Carolina St. (118.3)ACCH0-077%8.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.1526.0569.0065.919.948.29
Boston CollegeACC4.523.8831.8228.57-1.64-1.66
Wake ForestACC2.473.8843.4841.82-0.32-0.63
Georgia TechACC2.433.8556.5253.920.320.30
Miami FLACC2.483.8581.8277.651.582.13
ClemsonACC2.482.3260.8760.390.540.48
Virginia TechACC2.482.3054.1750.490.210.02
Florida St.ACC0.442.3069.5765.220.170.70
DukeACC2.472.2978.2674.191.401.11
LouisvilleACC0.442.2779.1776.570.251.21
SyracuseACC2.562.2765.2261.310.780.51
North Carolina St.ACC0.352.2750.0049.920.00-0.00
VirginiaACC2.522.2782.6177.721.641.26
North CarolinaACC2.472.2786.9681.011.831.41
PittsburghACC2.432.2671.4366.481.040.75
IndianaB102.211.8678.2673.201.250.86
UMass LowellAE2.261.7836.3636.96-0.62-0.46
IowaB102.131.7886.3683.301.551.18
IllinoisB102.171.7547.8345.58-0.09-0.15
Stony BrookAE2.171.7385.7185.801.551.24
MilwaukeeHorz2.131.7261.9061.780.510.41
Youngstown St.Horz2.131.7231.8233.50-0.77-0.57
AlabamaSEC2.131.6959.0954.450.390.15
LibertyBSth2.081.6736.3637.86-0.57-0.40
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.081.6747.8345.24-0.09-0.16
MonmouthMAAC2.081.6779.1780.531.221.02
St. Francis PANEC2.081.6752.3851.320.100.04
RutgersB100.310.2521.7420.34-0.17-0.15
MinnesotaB100.220.1925.0027.23-0.11-0.09
WisconsinB100.220.1962.5056.960.060.03
Michigan St.B100.220.1980.0081.580.130.12
UMBCAE0.140.1824.0026.33-0.07-0.08
MaineAE0.180.1833.3333.13-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.180.1857.1453.980.030.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.175.007.22-0.16-0.15
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1737.5043.37-0.04-0.02
Green BayHorz0.140.1754.5556.010.010.02
PurdueB100.230.1780.0077.960.140.09
CornellIvy0.220.1742.1140.18-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.220.1764.0062.090.060.04
MichiganB100.180.1670.8366.720.070.06
NebraskaB100.180.1652.0050.780.010.00
Penn St.B100.180.1650.0046.760.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.140.1576.0076.320.070.08
BinghamtonAE0.190.1520.8324.09-0.11-0.08
HartfordAE0.190.1525.0026.74-0.09-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1421.7422.74-0.08-0.08
DetroitHorz0.190.1447.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.1413.0413.56-0.17-0.10
OaklandHorz0.180.1468.0067.990.070.05
DuquesneA100.190.1460.8756.360.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.1443.4843.76-0.01-0.02
MarylandB100.140.1487.5083.690.100.09
VCUA100.130.1473.9174.060.060.07
LSUSEC0.090.1462.5059.050.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.1450.0053.000.000.01
Ohio St.B100.170.1460.0055.540.030.02
VermontAE0.140.1252.0054.870.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.140.1272.2274.680.060.06
WagnerNEC0.130.1263.6465.020.040.03
LehighPat0.180.1239.1342.82-0.04-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1133.3335.05-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1181.8283.030.090.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1156.5257.020.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1158.3359.960.020.02
WinthropBSth0.140.1165.0063.440.040.03
NortheasternCAA0.090.1145.8346.63-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1173.9176.740.060.06
FloridaSEC0.050.1166.6766.330.020.04
TulaneAmer0.130.1136.0034.92-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1159.0955.220.020.01
KentuckySEC0.090.1175.0072.630.040.05
UCLAP120.130.1156.5253.270.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.1127.2731.06-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.130.1143.4846.22-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.140.0954.1755.260.010.01
AmericanPat0.140.0929.1731.18-0.06-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0947.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0934.7837.06-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0928.0030.70-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0965.2266.190.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0923.8126.56-0.05-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0945.4547.54-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0925.0026.87-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.140.0965.2260.580.040.02
BryantNEC0.140.0925.0026.40-0.07-0.04
High PointBSth0.090.0955.0057.460.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0950.0051.280.000.00
ToledoMAC0.130.0960.8762.080.030.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0960.0060.100.020.02
BradleyMVC0.130.0912.0011.96-0.10-0.06
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.8323.19-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0871.4369.840.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0856.0055.420.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0857.8961.760.010.02
South CarolinaSEC0.130.0886.9680.370.100.05
XavierBE0.090.0887.5081.860.070.05
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0824.0024.57-0.05-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0830.4331.21-0.05-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0834.7840.89-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.130.0886.9682.150.100.05
UtahP120.090.0870.8368.500.040.03
BucknellPat0.040.0852.1754.960.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0814.2924.86-0.03-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0887.5086.870.070.06
Iowa St.B120.130.0870.8368.000.050.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0821.7423.40-0.05-0.04
MissouriSEC0.090.0833.3330.27-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.090.0843.4844.89-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.130.0854.1754.110.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.0856.0052.840.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.130.0872.0069.150.060.03
SienaMAAC0.130.0864.0064.110.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0650.0051.910.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.02-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.230.010.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.74-0.04-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.21-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0675.0076.190.020.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0654.1750.990.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.600.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0637.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0673.0872.640.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0626.0929.18-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0673.9172.580.040.03
LamarSlnd0.090.0630.0029.28-0.03-0.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0613.6413.63-0.06-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.040.020.01
DavidsonA100.090.0661.9058.060.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0650.0052.380.000.00
South DakotaSum0.090.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0628.5731.30-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0670.8368.990.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0619.0520.33-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.45-0.03-0.04
RichmondA100.040.0656.5255.730.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0524.0024.17-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0545.4551.39-0.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0575.0075.330.040.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0545.4554.16-0.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0528.5732.73-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0579.1778.060.050.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0544.0045.35-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0521.7423.32-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0559.0959.370.010.01
ElonCAA0.090.0552.1750.420.000.00
FordhamA100.090.0552.3850.750.000.00
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.52-0.03-0.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0560.8760.750.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0542.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0521.7424.20-0.05-0.03
North FloridaASun0.040.0565.2267.120.010.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0536.3636.20-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0540.0042.12-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0540.9143.25-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0525.0023.45-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0582.6179.390.060.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0572.7371.660.040.02
USCP120.080.0578.2673.050.050.02
YaleIvy0.090.0573.6874.680.040.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.16-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.490.010.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.080.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.780.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.070.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.03-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.28-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0358.3360.690.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.90-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.040.0331.8229.13-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0365.2262.830.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3334.01-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.18-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.70-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.920.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.010.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.920.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0318.1821.12-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.20-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0363.6461.480.000.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.250.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0322.7323.25-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.35-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.1751.670.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5257.000.010.00
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0386.9686.650.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.6418.18-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.0043.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0340.0038.97-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.11-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0382.6181.130.000.02
IPFWSum0.040.0370.8368.590.020.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0039.76-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0358.3356.290.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0340.9143.75-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0363.6462.150.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0383.3381.320.030.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0334.7832.42-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0341.6742.61-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3334.19-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.76-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.400.020.01
TempleAmer0.040.0363.6459.710.010.01
TexasB120.040.0366.6762.210.010.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.090.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.040.0347.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3334.95-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.040.0315.0016.73-0.03-0.02