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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:31
Current SOS:31
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:185



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-923.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Bryant (285.0)NECH89-64W100%0.0
11-16Seattle (287.0)WACH92-49W100%0.0
11-18Loyola MD (212.0)PatH83-48W100%0.0
11-21Colorado (99.0)P12N83-89W100%0.0
11-22Northwestern (50.0)B10N66-70W100%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (318.0)WACH91-60W100%0.0
11-29Iowa (81.0)B10H92-78W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH107-53W100%0.0
12-6Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH87-72W100%0.0
12-10Villanova (1.0)BEN74-66L0%0.0
12-17Purdue (19.0)B10N86-81L0%0.0
12-19Colgate (294.0)PatH77-62W100%0.0
12-28Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACH63-55W100%0.0
12-31Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA77-78W100%0.0
1-4Louisville (7.0)ACCH77-70W100%0.0
1-7Clemson (69.0)ACCH75-70W100%0.0
1-12Miami FL (41.0)ACCA62-67W100%0.0
1-14Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA71-76W100%0.0
1-18Florida St. (14.0)ACCA83-80L0%0.0
1-21Syracuse (84.0)ACCH84-66W100%0.0
1-24Virginia (18.0)ACCH54-71L0%0.0
1-28Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA62-60L0%0.0
1-30Duke (6.0)ACCH74-84L0%0.0
2-5North Carolina (5.0)ACCN83-76L0%0.0
2-7Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH88-81W100%0.0
2-11Florida St. (14.0)ACCH84-72W100%0.0
2-14Boston College (219.0)ACCA76-84W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA72-81W100%0.0
2-26Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCH64-60W100%0.0
3-1Boston College (219.0)ACCH82-66W100%0.0
3-4Louisville (7.0)ACCA71-64L0%0.0
3-9Virginia (18.0)ACCN71-58W100%0.0
3-10Florida St. (14.0)ACCN73-77W100%0.0
3-11Duke (6.0)ACCN69-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.1526.1570.5570.5510.7510.75
Florida St.ACC4.934.9380.0080.002.962.96
DukeACC3.603.6075.7675.761.861.86
VirginiaACC3.553.5570.0070.001.421.42
LouisvilleACC3.533.5376.6776.671.881.88
Georgia TechACC3.493.4951.7251.720.120.12
Boston CollegeACC3.463.4630.0030.00-1.39-1.39
Wake ForestACC2.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
PittsburghACC2.162.1650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.152.1570.9770.970.900.90
ClemsonACC2.152.1554.8454.840.210.21
SyracuseACC2.132.1358.0658.060.340.34
Miami FLACC2.122.1267.7467.740.750.75
North CarolinaACC2.122.1278.1278.121.191.19
North Carolina St.ACC2.062.0648.3948.39-0.07-0.07
PurdueB101.631.6377.4277.420.890.89
NorthwesternB101.611.6169.7069.700.630.63
IowaB101.581.5858.0658.060.260.26
VillanovaBE1.561.5690.9190.911.281.28
Chicago St.WAC1.551.5510.7110.71-1.22-1.22
SeattleWAC1.541.5438.4638.46-0.36-0.36
ColgatePat1.541.5430.0030.00-0.62-0.62
Loyola MDPat1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.521.523.453.45-1.41-1.41
ColoradoP121.501.5058.0658.060.240.24
BryantNEC1.491.4936.6736.67-0.40-0.40
Fort WayneSum1.471.4759.2659.260.270.27
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.471.4761.2961.290.330.33
IndianaB100.230.2354.5554.550.020.02
Penn St.B100.230.2345.4545.45-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
LafayettePat0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
WisconsinB100.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
NebraskaB100.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
RutgersB100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1410.0010.00-0.11-0.11
IonaMAAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
MinnesotaB100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
LehighPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
NavyPat0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0761.5461.540.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.040.0446.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.040.0487.5087.500.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
UNLVMWC0.040.0434.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00