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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:77
Current SOS:77
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-516.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Binghamton (332.0)AEH82-39W100%0.0
11-16Navy (252.0)PatH92-53W100%0.0
11-19Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH104-67W100%0.0
11-22Massachusetts (80.0)A10N81-68W100%0.0
11-23Providence (22.0)BEN74-75L0%0.0
11-26Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH81-54W100%0.0
11-29Chicago St. (333.0)WACH90-42W100%0.0
12-3Michigan St. (23.0)B10H79-78W100%0.0
12-6Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH75-57W100%0.0
12-9Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH93-67W100%0.0
12-13Florida St. (110.0)ACCH83-63W100%0.0
12-20Purdue (55.0)B10N94-63W100%0.0
12-22Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH91-66W100%0.0
12-30Hartford (244.0)AEH87-60W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCH83-76W100%0.0
1-5North Carolina (11.0)ACCA70-71W100%0.0
1-10Virginia (7.0)ACCH56-62L0%0.0
1-14Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA59-62W100%0.0
1-17Miami FL (65.0)ACCH75-70W100%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA60-85W100%0.0
1-25North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA78-81W100%0.0
1-28Duke (6.0)ACCH77-73W100%0.0
1-31Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA76-72L0%0.0
2-4Boston College (165.0)ACCH71-63W100%0.0
2-7Duke (6.0)ACCA90-60L0%0.0
2-10Clemson (106.0)ACCA58-60W100%0.0
2-17Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH88-75W100%0.0
2-21Boston College (165.0)ACCA70-87W100%0.0
2-24Syracuse (69.0)ACCH60-65L0%0.0
3-4Louisville (21.0)ACCA59-71W100%0.0
3-7Clemson (106.0)ACCH81-67W100%0.0
3-12Miami FL (65.0)ACCN70-63W100%0.0
3-13Duke (6.0)ACCN64-74W100%0.0
3-14North Carolina (11.0)ACCN82-90W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.1526.1583.3383.3317.4417.44
DukeACC4.954.9593.3393.334.294.29
North CarolinaACC3.633.6372.7372.731.651.65
Boston CollegeACC3.623.6243.3343.33-0.48-0.48
Miami FLACC3.533.5367.7467.741.251.25
Georgia TechACC3.533.5341.3841.38-0.61-0.61
ClemsonACC3.483.4855.1755.170.360.36
Florida St.ACC2.182.1853.1253.120.140.14
North Carolina St.ACC2.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
Wake ForestACC2.132.1341.9441.94-0.34-0.34
Virginia TechACC2.112.1134.3834.38-0.66-0.66
LouisvilleACC2.102.1077.4277.421.151.15
SyracuseACC2.082.0856.6756.670.280.28
VirginiaACC2.082.0890.3290.321.681.68
PittsburghACC2.062.0654.8454.840.200.20
ProvidenceBE1.651.6565.6265.620.520.52
BinghamtonAE1.641.6417.2417.24-1.07-1.07
Michigan St.B101.581.5869.7069.700.620.62
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.571.5751.7251.720.050.05
MassachusettsA101.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
PurdueB101.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
NavyPat1.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
HartfordAE1.521.5246.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Grambling St.SWAC1.491.490.000.00-1.49-1.49
Chicago St.WAC1.471.4717.8617.86-0.95-0.95
Coppin St.MEAC1.471.4724.1424.14-0.76-0.76
Northern IllinoisMAC1.471.4746.4346.43-0.11-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
St. John'sBE0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
MaineAE0.170.1710.0010.00-0.14-0.14
New HampshireAE0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
RutgersB100.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
WisconsinB100.150.1591.1891.180.130.13
Ohio St.B100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Rhode IslandA100.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BucknellPat0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.090.0974.0774.070.040.04
La SalleA100.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
West VirginiaB120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0760.7160.710.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0459.2659.260.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0427.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.040.0461.7661.760.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
UCLAP120.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00