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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:26.0
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:167
Current Record:7-0
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:7-0
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-11.00.01%
29-23.60.25%
28-35.61.17%
27-48.43.25%
26-511.98.09%
25-615.314.62%
24-719.819.11%
23-825.219.14%
22-931.715.35%
21-1039.910.64%
20-1150.35.26%
19-1262.12.25%
18-1375.40.66%
17-1485.20.17%
16-1596.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Bryant (194.6)NECH89-64W100%0.0
11-16Seattle (250.2)WACH92-49W100%0.0
11-18Loyola MD (218.3)PatH83-48W100%0.0
11-21Colorado (84.8)P12N83-89W100%0.0
11-22Northwestern (60.3)B10N66-70W100%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (292.4)WACH91-60W100%0.0
11-29Iowa (164.3)B10H92-78W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH0-0100%35.9
12-6Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH0-091%16.4
12-10Villanova (7.4)BEN0-039%-3.4
12-17Purdue (28.6)B10N0-049%-0.2
12-19Colgate (231.7)PatH0-098%25.7
12-28Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACH0-097%22.0
12-31Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA0-065%4.5
1-4Louisville (6.5)ACCH0-049%-0.4
1-7Clemson (68.2)ACCH0-080%10.2
1-12Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-047%-0.9
1-14Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCA0-059%2.9
1-18Florida St. (50.8)ACCA0-056%1.7
1-21Syracuse (39.6)ACCH0-062%3.7
1-24Virginia (4.7)ACCH0-039%-3.3
1-28Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA0-082%10.9
1-30Duke (8.6)ACCH0-045%-1.4
2-4North Carolina (5.9)ACCA0-024%-8.4
2-7Wake Forest (59.3)ACCH0-082%10.8
2-11Florida St. (50.8)ACCH0-074%7.9
2-14Boston College (245.5)ACCA0-093%17.8
2-18North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-074%7.8
2-26Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCH0-092%17.1
3-1Boston College (245.5)ACCH0-098%23.9
3-4Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-029%-6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC29.2426.04100.0072.2429.2411.58
Georgia TechACC0.003.7566.6741.640.00-0.63
LouisvilleACC0.003.7585.7176.980.002.02
Boston CollegeACC0.003.7350.0028.810.00-1.58
Florida St.ACC0.003.7385.7164.300.001.07
SyracuseACC0.002.2766.6771.220.000.96
VirginiaACC0.512.24100.0083.300.511.49
Wake ForestACC0.512.2471.4353.550.220.16
ClemsonACC0.002.2266.6754.620.000.21
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.1971.4351.390.000.06
DukeACC0.002.1987.5079.480.001.29
Virginia TechACC0.002.1985.7163.680.000.60
PittsburghACC0.002.1985.7156.230.000.27
Miami FLACC0.002.1971.4366.180.000.71
North CarolinaACC0.002.1785.7180.150.001.31
PurdueB100.001.8071.4375.240.000.91
NorthwesternB107.651.7783.3368.425.100.65
IowaB107.141.7250.0045.810.00-0.14
Chicago St.WAC7.141.700.0017.96-7.14-1.09
SeattleWAC7.651.7025.0044.34-3.83-0.19
ColgatePat0.001.7020.0042.68-0.00-0.25
VillanovaBE0.001.69100.0083.850.001.15
Loyola MDPat7.141.6740.0041.99-1.43-0.27
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.670.0025.18-0.00-0.83
ColoradoP127.861.6483.3361.915.240.39
BryantNEC7.651.6433.3351.93-2.550.06
Fort WayneSum0.001.6166.6773.330.000.75
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.001.6160.0054.470.000.14
IndianaB100.000.2483.3375.060.000.12
Penn St.B100.000.2462.5043.960.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.2157.1442.660.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2050.0056.260.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1950.0053.530.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1850.0043.610.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.1633.3331.87-0.00-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.600.1683.3362.080.400.04
WisconsinB100.890.1675.0073.840.450.08
MarylandB100.000.1685.7156.490.000.02
RutgersB100.000.1683.3344.770.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.510.1525.0024.28-0.26-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.730.1466.6751.460.580.00
BucknellPat0.000.1475.0067.660.000.05
NavyPat0.000.1428.5743.62-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1416.6735.65-0.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.1442.8647.69-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.130.0034.23-0.00-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1316.6729.36-0.00-0.06
XavierBE0.000.13100.0074.800.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1371.4356.280.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1350.0061.590.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1385.7165.670.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0059.670.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1260.0058.950.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0022.69-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1133.3348.73-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.1133.3345.58-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.1133.3367.01-0.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.1180.0035.960.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0047.990.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.77-0.00-0.05
WoffordSC0.510.110.0033.58-0.51-0.04
CreightonBE0.600.11100.0076.650.600.06
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1142.8638.05-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1171.4371.570.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1087.5075.320.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1071.4366.530.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.1085.7172.660.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1042.8637.25-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0061.810.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.510.090.0024.77-0.51-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.0928.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB1.730.0820.0032.60-1.04-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0857.1452.630.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.600.0883.3357.990.400.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0812.5048.98-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0019.51-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.600.0837.5034.65-0.15-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0816.6736.35-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0866.6758.420.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.600.0816.6733.82-0.40-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0054.490.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0883.3363.610.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0820.0034.22-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0880.0068.320.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0039.28-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0875.0059.100.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0842.8635.68-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0814.2926.81-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.510.0833.3364.14-0.170.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0825.0038.72-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0023.47-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0857.1444.160.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.080.0043.04-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0883.3355.200.000.01
ButlerBE0.510.08100.0075.690.510.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0850.0047.560.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.080.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.510.0871.4354.520.220.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0828.5733.92-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0871.4363.570.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0840.0055.44-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0871.4363.090.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.710.0683.3374.620.480.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0575.0047.510.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.0528.5730.29-0.22-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.050.0024.19-0.51-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3341.52-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0542.8642.47-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0550.0051.260.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.600.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5750.51-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0540.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0514.2928.66-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0575.0061.040.000.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0540.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0528.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0557.1436.050.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0562.5056.500.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0583.3358.030.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0571.4368.970.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0516.6725.61-0.00-0.03
NJITASun0.000.0542.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0514.2931.71-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0540.0057.97-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0533.3336.31-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
TexasB121.020.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0520.0036.00-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0055.850.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0533.3340.39-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0512.5022.55-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0020.01-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0520.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0550.0046.780.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0557.1455.810.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0533.3323.33-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0583.3370.360.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0557.1467.020.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0571.4386.030.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0560.0070.500.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.890.0350.0050.290.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
OaklandHorz0.890.0383.3378.430.600.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
BrownIvy0.510.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.510.0383.3361.490.340.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.510.03100.0091.060.510.02
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.030.0021.30-0.51-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0366.6769.810.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.00
MemphisAmer0.510.0385.7159.740.360.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0371.4349.590.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01