live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:31.0
Current RPI:31
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:27
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1131.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH87-56W100%0.0
11-17Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH86-78W100%0.0
11-21UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH83-57W100%0.0
11-26Monmouth (52.0)MAACN70-68L0%0.0
11-27Iowa (28.0)B10N62-68W100%0.0
11-29Alabama (73.0)SECN73-74L0%0.0
12-2Illinois (149.0)B10A79-84W100%0.0
12-8Stony Brook (59.0)AEH86-61W100%0.0
12-13Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH81-61W100%0.0
12-19Indiana (24.0)B10N80-73L0%0.0
12-21Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH87-78W100%0.0
12-29Liberty (264.0)BSthH73-56W100%0.0
1-2Virginia (3.0)ACCA77-66L0%0.0
1-7Boston College (250.0)ACCA54-82W100%0.0
1-9Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCH82-86L0%0.0
1-13Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH72-64W100%0.0
1-16Duke (20.0)ACCA91-95W100%0.0
1-20Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH83-81W100%0.0
1-23Boston College (250.0)ACCH76-49W100%0.0
1-28Syracuse (72.0)ACCA81-66L0%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (159.0)ACCH85-62W100%0.0
2-3Miami FL (9.0)ACCA79-70L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina (5.0)ACCH80-76W100%0.0
2-8Clemson (131.0)ACCA83-89W100%0.0
2-13Louisville (17.0)ACCH71-66W100%0.0
2-20Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA63-62L0%0.0
2-24Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA58-69W100%0.0
2-27Florida St. (82.0)ACCA77-56L0%0.0
3-2Miami FL (9.0)ACCH50-68L0%0.0
3-5North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH89-75W100%0.0
3-10Duke (20.0)ACCN84-79W100%0.0
3-11North Carolina (5.0)ACCN78-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.0826.0863.9763.977.297.29
North CarolinaACC3.763.7684.3884.382.582.58
DukeACC3.763.7674.1974.191.821.82
Boston CollegeACC3.713.7123.3323.33-1.98-1.98
Wake ForestACC3.703.7037.9337.93-0.89-0.89
Georgia TechACC3.693.6958.0658.060.590.59
Miami FLACC3.683.6876.6776.671.961.96
North Carolina St.ACC2.292.2950.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC2.292.2978.1278.121.291.29
Virginia TechACC2.242.2459.3859.380.420.42
Florida St.ACC2.242.2458.0658.060.360.36
ClemsonACC2.242.2456.6756.670.300.30
PittsburghACC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
SyracuseACC2.192.1958.0658.060.350.35
LouisvilleACC2.172.1776.6776.671.151.15
IndianaB101.761.7677.4277.420.960.96
IowaB101.681.6870.0070.000.670.67
UMass LowellAE1.661.6637.0437.04-0.43-0.43
IllinoisB101.661.6645.4545.45-0.15-0.15
Stony BrookAE1.621.6282.7682.761.061.06
MilwaukeeHorz1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
AlabamaSEC1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
LibertyBSth1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
MonmouthMAAC1.561.5678.7978.790.900.90
St. Francis PANEC1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
RutgersB100.220.2219.3519.35-0.14-0.14
MinnesotaB100.190.1925.8125.81-0.09-0.09
UMBCAE0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Green BayHorz0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
PurdueB100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
MichiganB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Michigan St.B100.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
NorthwesternB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
WisconsinB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
HartfordAE0.160.1628.1228.12-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
CornellIvy0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
NebraskaB100.150.1547.0647.06-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
MarylandB100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
AlbanyAE0.130.1374.1974.190.070.07
BinghamtonAE0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
DuquesneA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.120.1235.2935.29-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
WoffordSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
WagnerNEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
BryantNEC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
YaleIvy0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00