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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:329.0
Current RPI:329
Expected SOS:312
Current SOS:312
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21329.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA68-50L0%0.0
11-13Clemson (79.0)ACCA58-37L0%0.0
11-19George Washington (29.0)A10A94-50L0%0.0
11-25Delaware (65.0)CAAH70-80L0%0.0
11-30Buffalo (106.0)MACA65-55L0%0.0
12-4Dayton (43.0)A10A56-46L0%0.0
12-7Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH54-73L0%0.0
12-15Howard (323.0)MEACN64-62L0%0.0
12-17Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A75-43L0%0.0
12-30St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH57-60L0%0.0
1-2Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthH66-65W100%0.0
1-4Campbell (316.0)BSthA60-70W100%0.0
1-11Hampton (204.0)MEACH60-73L0%0.0
1-13Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH56-58L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA62-52L0%0.0
1-20North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA66-55L0%0.0
1-27NJIT (308.0)indH59-65L0%0.0
2-1Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA77-64L0%0.0
2-3Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA54-53L0%0.0
2-8South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH61-53W100%0.0
2-10Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH79-59W100%0.0
2-15Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA67-79W100%0.0
2-17Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
2-22Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH84-71W100%0.0
2-24Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH59-56W100%0.0
3-1Howard (323.0)MEACH53-55L0%0.0
3-6Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA84-70L0%0.0
3-11Florida A&M (295.0)MEACN65-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.1226.1223.3923.39-13.90-13.90
Morgan St.MEAC4.314.3148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Coppin St.MEAC4.294.2931.0331.03-1.63-1.63
HowardMEAC4.234.2313.7913.79-3.06-3.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.194.1915.3815.38-2.90-2.90
Florida A&MMEAC4.164.1635.7135.71-1.19-1.19
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.692.6983.3383.331.791.79
Norfolk St.MEAC2.622.6251.7251.720.090.09
HamptonMEAC2.612.6158.6258.620.450.45
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.532.5323.3323.33-1.35-1.35
Savannah St.MEAC2.442.4437.9337.93-0.59-0.59
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.442.4417.2417.24-1.60-1.60
South Carolina St.MEAC2.442.4425.9325.93-1.17-1.17
NJITind1.961.9633.3333.33-0.65-0.65
Georgia TechACC1.931.9346.8846.88-0.12-0.12
ClemsonACC1.901.9061.2961.290.430.43
DaytonA101.871.8768.7568.750.700.70
St. Francis NYNEC1.851.8553.3353.330.120.12
CampbellBSth1.841.8433.3333.33-0.61-0.61
Gardner WebbBSth1.821.8251.7251.720.060.06
DelawareCAA1.821.8272.7372.730.830.83
George WashingtonA101.811.8174.1974.190.880.88
BuffaloMAC1.791.7962.9662.960.460.46
Oklahoma St.B121.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
LibertyBSth0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
RadfordBSth0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
WinthropBSth0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
MarylandACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
FordhamA100.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
RichmondA100.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
VMIBSth0.150.1555.5655.560.020.02
AkronMAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
High PointBSth0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
ToledoMAC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
La SalleA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Georgia SouthernSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
OhioMAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Oregon St.P120.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
MassachusettsA100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Notre DameACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
FIUCUSA0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.040.0417.2417.24-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02