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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:350.3
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:308
Current Record:0-19
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:0-6
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-20
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21332.50.02%
7-22341.90.21%
6-23345.51.55%
5-24348.16.29%
4-25349.516.32%
3-26350.427.95%
2-27350.828.42%
1-28351.015.52%
-0-29351.03.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13DePaul (187.0)BEA81-57L0%0.0
11-15Fort Wayne (189.6)SumA85-71L0%0.0
11-16Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA95-55L0%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (62.0)SCA81-57L0%0.0
11-27Troy (207.3)SBA95-64L0%0.0
11-29Binghamton (281.9)AEH64-85L0%0.0
12-2East Carolina (279.7)AmerA63-57L0%0.0
12-6UMBC (174.2)AEH60-81L0%0.0
12-9Duquesne (212.1)A10A97-48L0%0.0
12-17Delaware (224.8)CAAH59-68L0%0.0
12-19Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA74-68L0%0.0
12-22Nebraska (100.5)B10A85-68L0%0.0
12-27Penn (172.9)IvyA105-52L0%0.0
1-3North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACH62-65L0%0.0
1-6South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACH60-63L0%0.0
1-8North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACH66-76L0%0.0
1-12Hampton (287.4)MEACA78-56L0%0.0
1-15Florida A&M (340.3)MEACA94-89L0%0.0
1-20Bethune Cookman (288.3)MEACH78-85L0%0.0
1-22Morgan St. (312.3)MEACA0-016%-11.2
1-27Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH0-037%-3.6
2-3North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACA0-07%-16.1
2-5North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACA0-011%-13.9
2-12Norfolk St. (292.1)MEACA0-012%-13.1
2-17Florida A&M (340.3)MEACH0-049%-0.3
2-19Coppin St. (342.5)MEACH0-052%0.6
2-24Howard (331.8)MEACA0-013%-12.3
2-26Maryland Eastern Shore (335.1)MEACA0-033%-4.9
3-1Morgan St. (312.3)MEACH0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.3726.110.009.06-26.37-21.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.774.0552.9453.930.160.32
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.704.0140.0050.73-0.540.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.294.0129.4136.75-0.12-1.06
Florida A&MMEAC2.704.005.2615.77-2.42-2.74
Coppin St.MEAC0.362.399.5216.90-0.29-1.58
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.372.3915.7919.26-0.26-1.47
HowardMEAC0.372.3810.5325.17-0.29-1.18
Savannah St.MEAC0.162.3627.7833.49-0.07-0.78
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.772.3247.0650.76-0.160.04
South Carolina St.MEAC2.702.3023.5329.28-1.43-0.95
Norfolk St.MEAC0.232.3018.7534.92-0.14-0.69
HamptonMEAC2.632.2614.2939.48-1.88-0.48
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.931.8838.8944.08-0.65-0.22
BinghamtonAE2.631.8538.8937.79-0.58-0.45
DuquesneA102.771.8468.4256.701.020.25
East Tennessee St.SC2.781.8276.4778.411.471.03
East CarolinaAmer2.701.8138.8930.06-0.60-0.72
UMBCAE2.631.8152.9453.900.150.14
Fort WayneSum2.771.7850.0049.830.00-0.01
TroySB2.771.7831.2540.64-1.04-0.33
DePaulBE2.701.7538.8932.05-0.60-0.63
PennIvy2.631.7562.5061.380.660.40
PittsburghACC2.701.7536.8428.57-0.71-0.75
DelawareCAA2.631.7244.4440.98-0.29-0.31
NebraskaB102.631.7265.0058.480.790.29
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.2170.0071.230.060.09
TowsonCAA0.220.2163.1665.970.060.07
GeorgetownBE0.140.2068.4254.070.050.02
George MasonA100.220.1945.0041.30-0.02-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.210.1835.0026.12-0.06-0.09
George WashingtonA100.150.1845.0043.48-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.210.1860.0055.160.040.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.1536.8445.21-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.290.1566.6773.210.100.07
The CitadelSC0.150.1518.7518.36-0.09-0.09
IllinoisB100.210.1547.3744.27-0.01-0.02
CornellIvy0.280.1533.3333.23-0.09-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.210.1552.3848.530.01-0.00
FordhamA100.200.1431.5829.06-0.08-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.200.1452.6343.110.01-0.02
Penn St.B100.200.1461.9055.760.050.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1342.1143.51-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.290.1273.6867.970.140.04
DetroitHorz0.140.1221.0525.97-0.08-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.160.1264.7159.990.050.02
AlbanyAE0.140.1271.4370.240.060.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1266.6765.370.050.04
HartfordAE0.140.1250.0045.930.00-0.01
MaineAE0.140.1210.5314.83-0.11-0.09
New HampshireAE0.140.1233.3340.08-0.05-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.140.1233.3333.87-0.05-0.04
VermontAE0.070.1275.0077.850.040.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.1242.1144.96-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1244.4450.31-0.020.00
SouthernSWAC0.150.1227.7840.97-0.07-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.1284.2178.170.050.07
XavierBE0.230.1285.7180.080.160.07
JacksonvilleASun0.220.1233.3333.77-0.07-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.210.1222.2227.33-0.12-0.05
YaleIvy0.140.1241.1847.56-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.270.1233.3336.93-0.09-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1220.0023.34-0.08-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.140.1268.4257.740.050.02
Green BayHorz0.140.1225.0027.94-0.07-0.05
MercerSC0.140.1244.4454.86-0.020.01
CreightonBE0.060.1275.0070.700.030.05
RutgersB100.070.1155.0046.690.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.130.1177.7870.480.070.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0917.6519.30-0.04-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0952.6347.520.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.170.0927.7838.14-0.07-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.0928.5731.26-0.06-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0950.0054.190.000.01
OaklandHorz0.140.0961.9065.160.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0983.3381.370.000.06
SMUAmer0.070.0970.0070.570.030.04
IndianaB100.070.0957.8950.710.010.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0994.7486.140.080.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.0966.6765.640.050.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0921.4326.35-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.150.0966.6768.540.050.03
PresbyterianBSth0.150.0927.7827.10-0.06-0.04
RadfordBSth0.140.0957.8958.850.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.0968.7567.600.050.03
MarylandB100.070.0970.0065.250.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0921.0523.51-0.08-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0989.4785.550.050.06
ClemsonACC0.070.0984.2173.240.050.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0952.6347.390.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.140.0950.0054.890.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0950.0051.640.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.0955.0052.470.010.00
UCFAmer0.210.0968.4260.860.080.02
VMISC0.140.0925.0024.15-0.07-0.05
VillanovaBE0.150.0994.7490.310.130.07
Michigan St.B100.130.0985.0083.200.090.06
Notre DameACC0.140.0963.1661.020.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.0965.0054.670.040.01
DaytonA100.140.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6768.730.000.03
WisconsinB100.140.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.130.0947.3742.16-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0668.4263.650.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.01-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.52-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.180.0665.0065.320.050.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.380.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0672.2272.980.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.50-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0633.3337.23-0.03-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.0645.0045.03-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0666.6765.520.030.02
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.250.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0626.6729.040.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0650.0045.870.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0647.0641.41-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.110.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.140.0661.1160.440.030.01
ColgatePat0.140.0650.0051.030.000.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.190.040.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0678.9576.750.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0626.3228.110.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0620.0032.25-0.05-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0652.6351.080.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0636.8444.11-0.04-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0637.5046.690.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.490.010.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
IUPUIHorz0.070.0627.7829.83-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0670.0068.220.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0058.540.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.220.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.0641.1839.16-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0652.9460.220.000.01
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6351.740.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0635.2940.48-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0663.1657.890.000.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.320.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.37-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.380.040.03
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.690.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0668.4269.250.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.140.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
La SalleA100.140.0640.0042.69-0.03-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.340.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.140.0644.4446.65-0.02-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.36-0.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0668.4260.550.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0670.0060.470.030.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0067.890.000.02
NorthwesternB100.130.0655.0050.330.010.00
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.850.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.700.010.01
DukeACC0.130.0689.4785.210.100.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.790.040.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0663.6457.630.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.920.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.950.030.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.92-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0680.0078.850.040.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.230.020.01
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.630.020.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.260.030.02
AkronMAC0.070.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0370.0068.300.040.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0311.1115.29-0.07-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0358.8249.760.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0331.5832.720.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0344.4444.920.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0357.1453.050.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0363.1657.540.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0357.8950.210.010.00
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.130.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0360.0062.030.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0316.6724.260.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.880.020.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.930.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.20-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.45-0.04-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0355.0048.980.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.970.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0380.9583.260.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0347.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0361.1147.220.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
LafayettePat0.080.0322.2227.47-0.04-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.52-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.16-0.05-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.660.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0330.0033.47-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.700.030.01
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.050.020.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.44-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0327.7827.28-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
High PointBSth0.070.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0384.2179.750.040.02
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0321.0522.02-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MichiganB100.060.0376.1970.740.030.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.67-0.07-0.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.060.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.410.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.020.00
PurdueB100.060.0390.4888.370.050.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0383.3381.430.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.700.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01