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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:349.1
Current RPI:350
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:310
Current Record:2-20
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:2-7
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-15
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21329.00.03%
7-22337.80.49%
6-23343.53.51%
5-24347.014.08%
4-25348.930.78%
3-26350.135.24%
2-27350.715.86%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware (274.3)CAAH56-62L0%0.0
11-17Penn (277.1)IvyH54-60L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska (145.2)B10A75-60L0%0.0
11-21Lamar (336.6)SlndH66-77L0%0.0
11-24UC Riverside (264.1)BWA81-55L0%0.0
11-27Fresno St. (124.1)MWCA80-59L0%0.0
11-29San Francisco (227.6)WCCA67-47L0%0.0
12-4Old Dominion (140.4)CUSAA82-38L0%0.0
12-12Michigan (47.8)B10A80-33L0%0.0
12-15Grand Canyon (100.8)WACA88-59L0%0.0
12-19Temple (85.9)AmerA78-63L0%0.0
12-22Utah (30.0)P12A105-58L0%0.0
12-28TCU (166.0)B12A75-47L0%0.0
1-9Morgan St. (332.4)MEACA63-58L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina St. (206.5)MEACA90-79L0%0.0
1-18Savannah St. (329.3)MEACA64-47L0%0.0
1-20Howard (297.7)MEACH67-71L0%0.0
1-25North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACH57-55W100%0.0
1-27North Carolina Central (321.4)MEACH71-60W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina St. (206.5)MEACH41-56L0%0.0
2-6Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACA85-56L0%0.0
2-8Florida A&M (347.3)MEACA96-95L0%0.0
2-13Maryland Eastern Shore (275.3)MEACH0-032%-5.0
2-15Coppin St. (327.5)MEACA0-023%-7.9
2-20Norfolk St. (207.4)MEACH0-014%-11.6
2-22Hampton (193.0)MEACH0-019%-9.5
2-27Maryland Eastern Shore (275.3)MEACA0-014%-11.7
2-29Hampton (193.0)MEACA0-07%-16.1
3-3Coppin St. (327.5)MEACH0-045%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.2426.146.9810.34-22.58-20.73
South Carolina St.MEAC4.814.0147.6250.63-0.230.05
HamptonMEAC0.524.0159.0959.270.090.74
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.464.0129.1730.54-0.19-1.56
Coppin St.MEAC0.473.9714.2916.89-0.33-2.63
Morgan St.MEAC2.682.4715.0023.14-1.88-1.33
Norfolk St.MEAC0.472.4243.4849.40-0.06-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.642.3828.5733.87-1.13-0.77
HowardMEAC2.482.3833.3336.67-0.83-0.63
Savannah St.MEAC2.642.3835.0035.20-0.79-0.70
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.592.3330.4334.28-1.01-0.73
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.582.2526.3234.50-1.22-0.70
Florida A&MMEAC2.592.2321.0521.97-1.50-1.25
San FranciscoWCC2.371.8552.3848.250.11-0.06
Old DominionCUSA2.331.8454.5561.550.210.43
UC RiversideBW2.441.8243.4839.64-0.32-0.38
Grand CanyonWAC2.321.8281.8280.441.481.11
TempleAmer2.431.8161.9058.450.580.31
Fresno St.MWC2.381.7960.0058.190.480.29
UtahP122.381.7968.1866.370.860.58
LamarSlnd2.371.7826.3226.43-1.12-0.84
DelawareCAA2.321.7518.1820.59-1.48-1.03
NebraskaB102.321.7552.1750.250.100.01
PennIvy2.321.7535.2935.22-0.68-0.52
MichiganB102.321.7568.1865.080.840.53
TCUB122.271.7243.4837.29-0.30-0.44
Kansas St.B120.100.2460.8758.370.020.04
PurdueB100.250.2079.1776.510.140.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.310.1935.0034.72-0.09-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1866.6765.220.030.06
William & MaryCAA0.200.1871.4369.860.090.07
RiceCUSA0.210.1828.5729.68-0.09-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1652.0050.240.010.00
AkronMAC0.150.1681.8280.030.100.09
PrincetonIvy0.060.1672.2274.700.030.08
TowsonCAA0.150.1665.2259.750.050.03
HoustonAmer0.210.1669.5766.530.080.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.1550.0049.770.00-0.00
IowaB100.100.1582.6180.590.060.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.200.1566.6767.690.070.05
SMUAmer0.150.1590.9186.160.120.11
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1582.6178.890.110.09
East CarolinaAmer0.250.1543.4842.00-0.03-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.200.1570.8370.840.090.06
MarylandB100.100.1487.5083.700.070.10
JacksonvilleASun0.210.1350.0049.850.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.100.1265.2262.840.030.03
AmericanPat0.000.1230.4331.91-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.210.1215.0026.98-0.15-0.06
Iowa St.B120.050.1273.9170.050.020.05
ColoradoP120.050.1269.5765.360.020.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1263.6460.930.040.03
OregonP120.210.1282.6179.220.140.07
South FloridaAmer0.160.1220.0019.67-0.09-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.160.1250.0051.180.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.1228.5728.54-0.09-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1272.7372.060.070.05
VillanovaBE0.160.1286.9686.360.120.09
Ohio St.B100.100.1258.3354.120.020.01
WashingtonP120.160.1265.2261.090.050.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1283.3383.030.060.08
RutgersB100.200.1221.7420.35-0.11-0.07
MinnesotaB100.150.1126.0927.81-0.07-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.200.1134.7840.93-0.06-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.1150.0046.710.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.1018.1821.06-0.04-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1045.0049.42-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.0914.2915.45-0.11-0.07
CornellIvy0.050.0942.1140.18-0.01-0.02
HarvardIvy0.110.0935.0038.49-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0962.5059.800.010.02
BrownIvy0.110.0931.5831.08-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0910.0013.14-0.00-0.07
MissouriSEC0.050.0934.7830.38-0.02-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.060.0952.1751.940.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.0920.0022.32-0.09-0.05
DrexelCAA0.060.0913.6418.14-0.05-0.06
PacificWCC0.110.0925.0028.89-0.05-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.110.0956.5257.280.010.01
BYUWCC0.100.0966.6769.510.030.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0939.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.0930.4331.18-0.06-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0924.0026.33-0.03-0.04
BaylorB120.100.0972.7366.460.050.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0984.2181.700.070.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0942.8650.39-0.010.00
ElonCAA0.100.0952.1750.420.000.00
UNLVMWC0.160.0950.0055.190.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.0930.0034.56-0.04-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0933.3335.08-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0972.7371.620.020.04
UCFAmer0.100.0952.3845.690.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.150.0959.0958.870.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0973.9172.490.050.04
West VirginiaB120.100.0982.6179.560.060.05
WisconsinB100.050.0960.8755.840.010.01
IndianaB100.100.0879.1774.020.060.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0866.6763.440.020.02
TexasB120.140.0866.6762.220.050.02
Texas TechB120.100.0859.0953.170.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.0856.5256.630.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0736.8441.40-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0755.0052.260.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0752.9452.160.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0717.6529.21-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0772.2275.580.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.0740.0040.30-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.110.0628.5729.64-0.05-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0621.0527.79-0.06-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.0661.9065.300.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0626.0929.19-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.76-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0642.8646.36-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0665.0063.440.000.02
YaleIvy0.060.0673.6874.680.030.03
FIUCUSA0.110.0640.9145.29-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.0641.6742.60-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0645.0046.12-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.0654.1749.230.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.0663.6459.220.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0650.0051.190.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.100.0663.6456.440.030.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0678.2676.800.060.03
LongwoodBSth0.100.0622.7324.96-0.05-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.0631.8230.47-0.04-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0665.2268.620.030.02
PortlandWCC0.100.0640.0038.51-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.7185.390.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.13-0.02-0.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6245.00-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.0671.4368.950.040.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.70-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0671.4368.720.050.02
La SalleA100.110.0620.0020.45-0.07-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.46-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0675.0076.230.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0654.1754.120.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0656.0052.770.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.210.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.500.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0660.8763.000.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.0645.8346.64-0.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0676.1968.210.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.110.0625.0022.75-0.05-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.69-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0676.1973.410.050.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0645.0046.78-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0643.4846.23-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.49-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.350.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0650.0051.900.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0661.9059.450.010.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0659.0960.100.020.01
BradleyMVC0.100.0612.5012.85-0.07-0.04
RichmondA100.100.0654.5554.490.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0635.0032.27-0.03-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0645.4551.34-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.780.010.01
Oregon St.P120.100.0661.9056.420.020.01
StanfordP120.100.0650.0046.620.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.430.020.01
UC DavisBW0.090.0640.0036.76-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3631.98-0.01-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.12-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0681.8276.750.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0624.0024.50-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.090.0681.8277.600.060.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3333.02-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0686.9682.610.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0645.8342.26-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.069.0917.12-0.08-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.090.0647.8346.89-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.27-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0321.7423.39-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0365.2267.160.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0372.0070.510.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0358.3358.410.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0359.0959.350.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0340.9143.53-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.210.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.19-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.67-0.04-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0336.3636.08-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0376.1972.290.030.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0320.8324.10-0.04-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.0413.55-0.05-0.02
George MasonA100.060.0334.7834.14-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.060.0321.7422.99-0.04-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0362.5062.390.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0328.0030.74-0.03-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.23-0.05-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.080.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.300.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.290.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0382.6178.070.040.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0359.0953.040.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.54-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0352.3850.420.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0334.7834.54-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0352.1751.960.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.760.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0322.7324.79-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.140.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.1751.640.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.39-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.170.020.01
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.700.020.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.070.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.08-0.03-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.570.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.460.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.660.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0333.3332.31-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.240.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.050.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.340.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.69-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.080.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.940.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0377.2776.870.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5831.99-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.410.030.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.62-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.910.020.01