live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:256.8
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:216
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-9
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8107.50.04%
20-9127.20.05%
19-10146.40.40%
18-11163.30.94%
17-12178.83.04%
16-13197.36.67%
15-14216.010.95%
14-15235.415.37%
13-16255.718.49%
12-17274.516.99%
11-18291.312.94%
10-19307.47.95%
9-20320.83.93%
8-21331.61.57%
7-22340.60.48%
6-23345.10.16%
5-24349.00.01%
4-25351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Penn (314.3)IvyA75-77W100%0.0
11-19North Texas (226.6)CUSAA62-55L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas (31.5)SECA99-71L0%0.0
11-26Iona (63.9)MAACA0-08%-17.2
11-28Wake Forest (119.6)ACCA0-010%-15.6
12-2Hawaii (230.0)BWA0-024%-8.4
12-7Delaware (307.7)CAAA0-049%-0.2
12-10Campbell (294.0)BSthH0-071%6.6
12-13Rhode Island (99.7)A10A0-010%-15.5
12-17St. Francis NY (207.7)NECA0-025%-8.2
12-20Oregon (48.1)P12A0-03%-22.0
12-28Temple (122.2)AmerA0-013%-13.7
1-10Morgan St. (267.5)MEACH0-059%2.8
1-12Howard (296.8)MEACA0-044%-1.7
1-17South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACH0-070%6.4
1-19Savannah St. (288.2)MEACH0-075%8.2
1-24North Carolina A&T (333.3)MEACA0-062%3.8
1-26North Carolina Central (167.1)MEACA0-017%-11.6
1-31South Carolina St. (288.1)MEACA0-047%-0.8
2-3NJIT (302.9)indA0-049%-0.2
2-7Bethune Cookman (320.2)MEACH0-074%7.7
2-9Florida A&M (344.6)MEACH0-086%12.8
2-14Maryland Eastern Shore (324.0)MEACA0-057%2.1
2-16Coppin St. (271.6)MEACH0-071%6.8
2-21Hampton (275.1)MEACA0-038%-3.8
2-23Norfolk St. (233.2)MEACA0-033%-5.2
2-28Maryland Eastern Shore (324.0)MEACH0-078%9.3
3-2Hampton (275.1)MEACH0-061%3.4
3-5Coppin St. (271.6)MEACA0-049%-0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC33.3326.1253.8552.182.561.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.0316.6729.83-0.00-1.63
HamptonMEAC0.004.0020.0044.24-0.00-0.46
Coppin St.MEAC0.003.990.0028.22-0.00-1.74
South Carolina St.MEAC0.003.990.0034.16-0.00-1.26
HowardMEAC0.002.420.0037.61-0.00-0.60
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3933.3346.52-0.00-0.17
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.390.0041.07-0.00-0.43
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.3425.0039.77-0.00-0.48
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.3440.0034.56-0.00-0.72
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.310.0021.75-0.00-1.30
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.300.0022.11-0.00-1.29
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.300.0068.57-0.000.85
NJITind0.001.9020.0026.96-0.00-0.88
ArkansasSEC16.671.81100.0073.7416.670.86
IonaMAAC2.781.8175.0073.311.390.84
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.790.0055.15-0.000.18
OregonP120.001.7975.0067.720.000.63
TempleAmer0.001.7850.0051.770.000.06
North TexasCUSA16.671.7850.0036.450.00-0.48
Wake ForestACC2.781.7860.0044.030.56-0.21
DelawareCAA0.001.750.0019.44-0.00-1.07
PennIvy16.671.750.0025.59-16.67-0.86
CampbellBSth0.001.720.0031.51-0.00-0.64
HawaiiBW0.001.7260.0049.900.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.001.72100.0058.090.000.28
FordhamA100.000.220.0024.54-0.00-0.11
TowsonCAA0.000.2180.0059.570.000.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.180.0066.25-0.000.06
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0073.380.000.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1833.3340.10-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.16100.0054.620.000.01
La SalleA100.000.15100.0054.280.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.15100.0060.950.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1540.0053.80-0.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.1575.0066.800.000.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1533.3344.46-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.15100.0065.880.000.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6753.640.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1580.0074.980.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0074.230.000.07
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1550.0054.950.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1340.0043.71-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1333.3367.83-0.000.05
MichiganB100.000.13100.0070.020.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1250.0037.880.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0031.34-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1233.3354.48-0.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.120.0038.08-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.120.0045.75-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1275.0047.460.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1233.3335.09-0.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0056.070.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1250.0054.870.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6753.410.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0040.14-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0063.820.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0027.43-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1275.0070.270.000.05
RiderMAAC2.780.1250.0047.540.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1266.6733.810.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1150.0035.290.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1060.0041.560.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1050.0034.540.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0029.28-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.100.0055.80-0.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.1066.6757.060.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0034.81-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.1075.0055.840.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.10100.0062.840.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.1075.0069.180.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0920.0035.87-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0920.0037.46-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0980.0061.930.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0975.0065.610.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0933.3337.47-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3350.07-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0966.6745.370.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.030.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0966.6765.570.000.03
VCUA100.000.0975.0067.590.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0925.0057.73-0.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0933.3330.55-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0966.6747.180.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.090.0042.28-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6746.440.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0058.760.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0078.600.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0072.950.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3349.79-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0050.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0975.0056.870.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.47-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0038.810.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0042.83-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.090.0033.27-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0920.0033.06-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0960.0057.920.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0920.0035.62-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0065.950.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0032.210.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.090.0033.80-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0933.3324.20-0.00-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0940.0050.01-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0960.0051.710.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0031.81-0.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0055.660.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0047.530.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0052.27-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.08100.0085.500.000.06
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0069.360.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0733.3364.13-0.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0733.3334.36-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0052.91-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.070.0017.71-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.480.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6752.810.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.130.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0034.020.00-0.02
LafayettePat2.780.0775.0064.541.390.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0016.93-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.32-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0035.180.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0070.800.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.570.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.13-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0055.640.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0666.6764.880.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.790.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0059.10-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.730.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.810.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0022.70-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3327.72-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.270.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0650.0037.390.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0072.970.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.70-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0043.570.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0036.18-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0026.270.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0074.960.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.400.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.140.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0050.880.000.00
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.030.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0043.250.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0044.98-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0075.310.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6745.890.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.700.000.02
USCP120.000.0640.0028.54-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3328.67-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0056.780.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0072.030.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0081.370.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.290.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd2.780.060.0029.60-2.78-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.62-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.57-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.660.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0051.910.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.400.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0043.080.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0666.6766.090.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6751.260.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0041.580.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3360.10-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0029.26-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6768.540.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.950.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0037.06-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0040.65-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0039.51-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0051.940.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6774.460.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0071.170.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.100.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0029.07-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3360.92-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3322.95-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0325.0038.68-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.960.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0033.20-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0375.0057.780.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.130.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.27-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3339.78-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.770.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6756.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0040.20-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.95-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.56-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3342.50-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.31-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6756.740.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0061.740.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3352.75-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0066.65-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0050.64-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.240.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0380.0043.930.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0049.160.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0366.6735.400.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.470.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0050.400.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0026.64-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0065.370.000.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0066.880.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0375.0058.190.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC2.780.030.0064.44-2.780.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.53-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0320.0035.82-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0074.040.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0325.0042.98-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0047.380.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0067.390.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0087.980.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0066.640.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0035.54-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.97-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3343.01-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.180.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6749.970.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0076.960.000.01