Delaware St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	263.0
Current RPI:	263
Expected SOS:	324
Current SOS:	324
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-8
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	229
Expected OOC SOS:	175

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	263.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	73-69	W	100%
11-18	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	87-48	L	0%
11-20	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	69-50	L	0%
11-23	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	N	63-62	L	0%
11-24	Navy (308.0)	Pat	N	63-53	L	0%
11-28	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	84-51	L	0%
12-1	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	H	76-66	W	100%
12-8	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	67-73	W	100%
12-15	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	80-76	L	0%
12-19	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	71-43	L	0%
12-29	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	79-50	L	0%
1-2	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	51-53	W	100%
1-5	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	A	86-51	L	0%
1-19	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	A	58-53	L	0%
1-23	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	63-46	W	100%
1-26	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	52-68	W	100%
1-28	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	A	48-57	W	100%
2-2	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	43-54	L	0%
2-4	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	53-44	W	100%
2-9	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	74-56	L	0%
2-11	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	85-84	L	0%
2-16	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	57-43	W	100%
2-18	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	52-50	W	100%
2-23	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	56-60	L	0%
2-25	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	50-57	L	0%
3-2	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	A	53-56	W	100%
3-4	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	66-47	L	0%
3-7	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	62-60	L	0%
3-12	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	N	73-61	W	100%
3-14	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	60-63	W	100%
3-15	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	N	78-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Delaware St.	MEAC	26.34	26.34	47.45	47.45	-1.35	-1.35
Howard	MEAC	5.45	5.45	23.08	23.08	-2.93	-2.93
Hampton	MEAC	5.43	5.43	42.86	42.86	-0.78	-0.78
Morgan St.	MEAC	3.99	3.99	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Norfolk St.	MEAC	3.94	3.94	63.33	63.33	1.05	1.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	3.88	3.88	3.85	3.85	-3.58	-3.58
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3.85	3.85	53.12	53.12	0.24	0.24
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.46	2.46	23.33	23.33	-1.31	-1.31
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.33	2.33	38.71	38.71	-0.53	-0.53
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.27	2.27	66.67	66.67	0.76	0.76
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.27	2.27	21.43	21.43	-1.29	-1.29
South Carolina St.	MEAC	2.23	2.23	11.11	11.11	-1.74	-1.74
Pittsburgh	BE	1.75	1.75	74.19	74.19	0.84	0.84
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.74	1.74	70.00	70.00	0.70	0.70
Northwestern	B10	1.74	1.74	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Maryland	ACC	1.72	1.72	63.64	63.64	0.47	0.47
Wagner	NEC	1.72	1.72	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.71	1.71	20.00	20.00	-1.03	-1.03
Illinois St.	MVC	1.71	1.71	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Navy	Pat	1.66	1.66	20.69	20.69	-0.98	-0.98
Penn St.	B10	1.66	1.66	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
Arkansas	SEC	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Marshall	CUSA	1.64	1.64	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Delaware	CAA	1.64	1.64	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.80	0.80	54.84	54.84	0.08	0.08
American	Pat	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.27	0.27	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
Central Florida	CUSA	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Cincinnati	BE	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Radford	BSth	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.15	0.15	58.82	58.82	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.13	0.13	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Boston University	AE	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01