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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:322.4
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:301
Current Record:3-14
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:2-2
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-13
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14242.00.01%
14-15254.10.09%
13-16265.50.58%
12-17280.42.85%
11-18296.68.72%
10-19309.915.94%
9-20321.322.77%
8-21330.222.43%
7-22336.516.35%
6-23340.87.26%
5-24343.92.49%
4-25346.30.48%
3-26349.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (111.1)SWACH61-74L0%0.0
11-16UMBC (170.3)AEA90-68L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (111.3)SBA83-82L0%0.0
11-23Rice (146.8)CUSAA80-58L0%0.0
11-26Montana St. (290.3)BSkyA91-66L0%0.0
11-29St. John's (152.1)BEA72-79W100%0.0
12-2Delaware (280.8)CAAA64-49L0%0.0
12-4SMU (31.8)AmerA74-60L0%0.0
12-8North Texas (303.8)CUSAA73-40L0%0.0
12-17Binghamton (278.3)AEA85-66L0%0.0
12-19Indiana (46.3)B10A103-56L0%0.0
12-22Iowa (120.2)B10A89-57L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (309.1)BWA77-66L0%0.0
1-7North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACA53-55W100%0.0
1-10North Carolina Central (195.5)MEACA68-69W100%0.0
1-14Hampton (308.1)MEACH77-85L0%0.0
1-16Norfolk St. (310.3)MEACH70-75L0%0.0
1-21South Carolina St. (301.8)MEACA0-036%-4.1
1-23Savannah St. (325.1)MEACA0-040%-2.7
1-28Florida A&M (348.3)MEACH0-072%6.5
1-30North Carolina Central (195.5)MEACH0-015%-11.4
2-1North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACH0-067%4.8
2-4Bethune Cookman (346.5)MEACA0-044%-1.8
2-6Florida A&M (348.3)MEACA0-051%0.3
2-11Morgan St. (316.8)MEACA0-031%-5.6
2-13Coppin St. (328.2)MEACA0-050%0.1
2-20Morgan St. (316.8)MEACH0-052%0.6
2-25Maryland Eastern Shore (305.0)MEACH0-046%-1.0
3-2Howard (324.7)MEACH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.5026.1328.0035.98-11.66-7.33
Morgan St.MEAC0.184.0137.5043.52-0.04-0.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.044.010.0014.24-3.04-2.87
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.0112.5018.48-0.00-2.53
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.134.0064.2975.160.892.01
HowardMEAC0.002.4112.5027.86-0.00-1.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.282.4112.5033.14-0.21-0.81
Savannah St.MEAC0.272.3825.0030.88-0.13-0.91
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.072.3812.5023.22-0.06-1.27
Coppin St.MEAC0.092.3522.2224.68-0.05-1.19
Norfolk St.MEAC3.042.2913.3333.29-2.23-0.76
HamptonMEAC3.132.2821.4337.72-1.79-0.56
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.2514.2927.91-0.00-0.99
RiceCUSA3.211.8460.0064.830.640.55
BinghamtonAE3.111.8233.3335.84-1.04-0.51
UMBCAE3.031.8260.0057.200.610.26
St. John'sBE3.031.7947.3739.87-0.16-0.36
IowaB102.941.7855.5649.480.33-0.02
Montana St.BSky3.121.7825.0036.66-1.56-0.48
North TexasCUSA3.031.7821.4329.66-1.73-0.73
Texas SouthernSWAC3.121.7847.0665.10-0.180.54
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.111.7860.0061.230.620.40
IndianaB102.941.7564.7162.590.870.44
DelawareCAA2.941.7225.0024.99-1.47-0.86
HawaiiBW2.941.7235.7142.04-0.84-0.27
SMUAmer2.941.7277.7875.831.630.89
East CarolinaAmer0.360.2847.3741.50-0.02-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2129.4134.19-0.11-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.440.2127.7830.30-0.20-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1956.2553.390.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.1862.5068.380.020.07
Old DominionCUSA0.260.1861.1162.130.060.04
RutgersB100.260.1855.5643.040.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.1761.1150.520.020.00
MichiganB100.150.1763.1658.050.040.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1652.9453.520.010.01
HartfordAE0.190.1631.5829.33-0.07-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.1662.5060.130.020.03
AlbanyAE0.170.1550.0058.130.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.170.1542.1140.69-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.180.1550.0052.280.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.160.1535.2928.89-0.05-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1520.0019.56-0.06-0.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.1540.0046.09-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.1583.3381.270.050.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1525.0029.58-0.08-0.06
Seton HallBE0.260.1466.6758.200.090.02
PurdueB100.250.1478.9576.880.140.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.1358.8257.810.050.02
MaineAE0.090.1321.0521.89-0.05-0.07
New HampshireAE0.090.1353.3357.140.010.02
VermontAE0.180.1373.6877.320.090.07
William & MaryCAA0.100.1242.8647.01-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1255.5660.000.010.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1252.9455.270.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1243.7543.61-0.01-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.1225.0027.36-0.04-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.270.1223.0831.10-0.14-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.190.1243.7543.54-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1247.3745.13-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1231.2545.29-0.07-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1261.1156.520.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.1237.5051.02-0.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1268.7570.380.070.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1272.2271.190.000.05
ButlerBE0.250.1284.2178.350.170.07
MemphisAmer0.150.1272.2264.100.070.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.1252.6348.200.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.1188.2471.860.060.05
MinnesotaB100.170.1178.9570.200.100.05
SamfordSC0.000.0964.7159.940.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.2935.32-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.180.0957.8953.010.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.190.0922.2236.04-0.11-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.0961.1159.200.040.02
LSUSEC0.180.0956.2539.360.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0912.5021.92-0.07-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0921.4327.22-0.06-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.0943.7550.72-0.020.00
DrexelCAA0.180.0935.2935.36-0.05-0.03
Texas St.SB0.100.0953.3345.900.01-0.01
UtahP120.180.0966.6764.760.060.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0918.7523.94-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0914.2927.70-0.06-0.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0944.4445.45-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0925.0028.48-0.05-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.0977.7866.990.000.03
VCUA100.170.0977.7873.850.090.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.0950.0051.390.000.00
Notre DameACC0.160.0988.8977.880.130.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0917.6524.66-0.06-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0966.6761.460.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.160.0888.2486.400.120.06
IllinoisB100.080.0861.1153.510.020.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0863.1657.650.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0811.1123.08-0.06-0.04
NebraskaB100.160.0850.0043.400.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0878.9569.140.040.03
TulaneAmer0.150.0823.5320.64-0.08-0.05
RichmondA100.190.0764.7158.500.060.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0664.7160.770.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0678.9582.970.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.200.0660.0066.160.040.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0643.7537.62-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.0631.2526.54-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0618.7520.55-0.06-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0628.5731.55-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.190.0626.3227.81-0.09-0.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0657.8952.820.010.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0636.8448.43-0.02-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0676.4762.130.050.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0620.0029.49-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0640.0040.94-0.02-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0646.6745.23-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0633.3340.05-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0047.940.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0636.8436.59-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.0647.0640.40-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0652.9454.870.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.0650.0058.480.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0615.3827.49-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0640.0049.62-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.0682.3582.810.120.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0635.7136.20-0.03-0.02
Texas TechB120.190.0676.4763.780.100.02
TroySB0.100.0647.0648.08-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.190.0658.8263.680.030.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0643.7538.33-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0664.7161.950.020.01
AkronMAC0.000.0682.3575.750.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0623.5329.83-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0664.7165.910.030.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0677.7870.840.050.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0656.2559.190.010.01
ElonCAA0.000.0647.0649.73-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0653.3355.950.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0664.7147.100.03-0.00
IdahoBSky0.090.0635.7144.05-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.090.066.6718.54-0.07-0.04
Little RockSB0.090.0656.2551.270.010.00
MassachusettsA100.090.0661.1159.260.020.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0652.6360.470.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0662.5060.110.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0666.6763.280.030.02
PacificWCC0.090.0638.8934.93-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0653.8554.520.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0621.4326.05-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0627.7824.41-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.170.0657.8957.060.030.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0668.7563.220.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0688.2484.340.070.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0653.8564.270.010.02
North CarolinaACC0.180.0684.2180.540.120.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.0623.5324.34-0.10-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.170.0623.5328.53-0.09-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.170.0630.7743.73-0.07-0.01
La SalleA100.170.0666.6762.100.060.01
North DakotaBSky0.160.0646.1554.02-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.170.0663.1651.670.040.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.066.2511.84-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0618.7528.13-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0621.4336.57-0.05-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0637.5043.18-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0694.4484.830.070.04
DePaulBE0.150.0642.1130.44-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.160.0683.3377.690.110.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0617.6535.23-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0665.0055.340.000.01
TCUB120.160.0681.2565.210.100.02
TempleAmer0.080.0652.6353.230.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0656.2551.290.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0694.7489.210.070.04
XavierBE0.070.0672.2267.530.030.02
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0054.870.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0347.3748.91-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0063.130.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0373.6874.110.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0388.2487.500.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0381.2572.840.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0352.9450.980.000.00
Kansas St.B120.100.0376.4759.460.050.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0331.5839.38-0.04-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.0373.3373.820.050.02
BucknellPat0.090.0368.4271.120.030.01
DuquesneA100.090.0350.0042.010.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0375.0076.830.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0333.3333.25-0.03-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0344.4443.48-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0364.7161.540.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0370.5958.350.040.01
NavyPat0.090.0341.1843.66-0.02-0.00
OregonP120.000.0388.2482.680.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0317.6514.96-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0342.1142.60-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0358.8264.270.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6721.64-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.090.0335.2930.56-0.03-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0344.4442.66-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.090.0341.1845.53-0.02-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0311.7616.64-0.07-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0327.7834.21-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.090.0316.6723.33-0.06-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0320.0024.59-0.06-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0368.7573.530.030.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0376.4777.760.050.02
Loyola MDPat0.090.0350.0047.030.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0388.2484.470.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0360.0061.060.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0331.2542.02-0.03-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0355.5655.700.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.190.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0034.710.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0338.8934.53-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0337.5045.11-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0368.4268.140.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0356.2551.860.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0356.2553.600.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0364.7158.480.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0361.1163.000.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0358.3361.490.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0323.0830.99-0.05-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0357.8962.290.010.01
IUPUISum0.000.0335.2942.44-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5653.980.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0331.5829.24-0.03-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0337.5034.43-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0322.2227.20-0.05-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0346.1551.20-0.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0317.6521.39-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0333.3342.17-0.03-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0033.65-0.05-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0323.5321.77-0.05-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.38-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0312.5019.01-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0335.7148.97-0.03-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0377.7877.180.000.02
Washington St.P120.090.0350.0035.480.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0357.1465.270.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0388.8983.150.060.02
BaylorB120.080.0394.1280.670.070.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0362.5063.040.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0353.3361.460.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0357.1458.850.010.00
FordhamA100.070.0335.2931.88-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0368.7569.290.030.01
KansasB120.080.0394.4481.660.070.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0343.7549.94-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0331.2537.17-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0327.7834.92-0.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.5649.850.01-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0352.9447.220.00-0.00
USCP120.080.0384.2172.830.050.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0333.3333.44-0.03-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0381.2576.190.050.01