Delaware St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	279.9
Current RPI:	276
Expected SOS:	323
Current SOS:	294
Current Record:	6-11
Expected Record:	10-16
Current Conf Record:	5-3
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	4.14%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-7
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	300
Expected OOC SOS:	149

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-11	206.1	0.07%
14-12	221.1	0.73%
13-13	237.5	4.30%
12-14	256.6	14.29%
11-15	273.2	25.63%
10-16	286.8	29.55%
9-17	297.4	17.90%
8-18	307.2	6.48%
7-19	316.9	1.00%
6-20	324.5	0.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	A	70-52	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Notre Dame (66.5)	BE	A	93-69	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	85-62	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Eastern Kentucky (207.4)	OVC	H	57-43	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	68-78	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	A	72-65	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Delaware (183.1)	CAA	H	42-58	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Tennessee St. (155.4)	OVC	H	55-59	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Georgia (132.0)	SEC	A	58-51	L	0%	0.0
12-31	George Washington (196.4)	A10	A	77-59	L	0%	0.0
1-4	North Carolina St. (62.9)	ACC	A	78-44	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	60-63	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	59-60	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	H	65-51	W	100%	0.0
1-28	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	A	70-76	W	100%	0.0
1-30	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	A	41-56	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	67-50	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-11	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	A	0-0		26%	-7.0
2-13	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		29%	-6.0
2-15	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	A	0-0		20%	-9.0
2-18	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	A	0-0		30%	-5.7
2-20	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-25	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	0-0		80%	9.1
2-27	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		53%	0.7
3-1	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	0-0		88%	13.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Delaware St.	MEAC	26.29	26.21	37.97	42.10	-6.32	-4.14
Hampton	MEAC	0.20	4.57	36.36	38.02	-0.05	-1.10
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	6.37	4.57	16.67	17.65	-4.25	-2.95
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.35	4.56	25.00	35.91	-0.17	-1.29
Norfolk St.	MEAC	3.22	4.56	71.43	71.89	1.38	2.00
Howard	MEAC	3.37	4.53	14.29	19.30	-2.41	-2.78
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.35	2.73	42.11	48.81	-0.06	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	3.62	2.60	41.18	45.68	-0.64	-0.22
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.27	2.57	10.00	15.05	-0.22	-1.80
Florida A&M	MEAC	3.53	2.57	20.00	23.20	-2.12	-1.38
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3.45	2.51	35.00	38.63	-1.03	-0.57
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	3.45	2.51	35.00	40.74	-1.04	-0.46
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	3.22	2.10	52.17	53.58	0.14	0.15
Tennessee St.	OVC	3.06	2.06	54.55	51.37	0.28	0.06
Delaware	CAA	3.01	2.06	45.45	48.89	-0.27	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	3.14	2.05	36.36	40.13	-0.86	-0.41
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.09	2.02	69.57	63.24	1.21	0.54
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	1.99	34.78	37.65	-0.00	-0.49
George Washington	A10	3.09	1.99	31.82	29.74	-1.12	-0.81
Georgia	SEC	3.07	1.99	42.86	39.17	-0.44	-0.43
Wagner	NEC	3.02	1.96	81.82	84.02	1.92	1.33
Notre Dame	BE	3.01	1.96	63.64	61.41	0.82	0.45
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.34	0.79	52.38	57.86	0.02	0.12
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.23	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.10
American	Pat	0.21	0.20	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.26	0.20	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.20	75.00	75.78	0.10	0.10
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.20	27.27	27.21	-0.03	-0.09
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.20	12.50	13.44	-0.14	-0.15
Morehead St.	OVC	0.25	0.20	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.20	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.17	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.17	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.15
Kansas St.	B12	0.28	0.17	72.73	68.28	0.13	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.20	0.17	60.87	59.76	0.04	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.31	0.17	33.33	35.97	-0.10	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.27	0.17	81.82	76.80	0.17	0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.13	0.16	26.32	29.71	-0.06	-0.07
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.16	79.17	75.98	0.12	0.09
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.14	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.27	0.13	73.91	74.91	0.13	0.07
Navy	Pat	0.21	0.13	9.52	13.19	-0.17	-0.10
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.13	68.18	63.99	0.07	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.13	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.13	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.19	0.13	79.17	78.10	0.11	0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.13	70.83	71.05	0.08	0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	56.00	55.65	0.02	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.78	34.61	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.13	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.13	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.19	0.13	86.96	83.16	0.14	0.09
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.13	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.13	44.00	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.19	0.13	30.43	26.44	-0.07	-0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.19	0.13	59.09	50.82	0.03	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.13	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.10	4.00	5.26	-0.06	-0.09
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.22	0.10	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.21	0.10	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.04	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.10	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.10	4.35	9.66	-0.17	-0.08
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.10	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.21	0.10	61.90	58.59	0.05	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.10	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.10	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.10	80.95	77.38	0.04	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.21	0.10	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.10	32.00	35.39	-0.05	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.10	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.10	8.70	13.10	-0.05	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.10	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.10	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.13	0.10	8.33	10.86	-0.11	-0.08
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.10	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.10	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.10	70.83	68.82	0.05	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.10	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.19	0.10	80.00	78.06	0.12	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.10	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.09	65.00	60.02	0.04	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.17	0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.07	59.09	54.70	0.00	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.07	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.07	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.07	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.00	0.07	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.07	0.07	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	78.26	78.39	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.07	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.00	0.07	13.64	16.35	-0.00	-0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.00	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.00	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.16	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.07	42.86	45.80	-0.02	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.07	0.07	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.00	0.07	56.52	53.77	0.00	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.08	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	90.91	83.85	0.06	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.14	0.07	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.07	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.07	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.07	90.91	87.74	0.11	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.07	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.07	17.65	27.10	-0.08	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.07	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.07	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.00	0.07	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.07	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.07	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.07	76.00	72.50	0.07	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	28.52	-0.04	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.07	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.07	28.00	28.91	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.00	0.07	26.09	28.60	-0.00	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.07	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.13	0.07	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.07	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.00	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.07	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.13	0.07	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.07	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.07	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.07	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.06	0.07	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.05	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.02
California	P12	0.13	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.07	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.06	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.05	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.06	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.04	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.04	65.22	60.58	0.00	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.00	0.04	27.27	26.95	-0.00	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.04	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.04	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.04	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.03	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.06	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.07	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.00	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.00	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.00	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.03	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.00	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.05	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.03	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.04	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.04	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.00	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.07	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.04	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.05	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.04	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01