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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:285.3
Current RPI:253
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:157
Current Record:1-7
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11161.50.02%
17-12176.60.15%
16-13197.41.05%
15-14217.62.98%
14-15236.46.67%
13-16255.112.08%
12-17272.917.64%
11-18289.119.24%
10-19303.216.97%
9-20315.112.03%
8-21325.26.90%
7-22332.32.96%
6-23339.21.00%
5-24342.30.24%
4-25346.80.04%
3-26348.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (104.8)SWACH61-74L0%0.0
11-16UMBC (207.9)AEA90-68L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA83-82L0%0.0
11-23Rice (88.9)CUSAA80-58L0%0.0
11-26Montana St. (176.6)BSkyA91-66L0%0.0
11-29St. John's (151.8)BEA72-79W100%0.0
12-2Delaware (219.8)CAAA64-49L0%0.0
12-4SMU (59.0)AmerA74-60L0%0.0
12-8North Texas (299.2)CUSAA0-037%-3.9
12-17Binghamton (256.1)AEA0-033%-5.1
12-19Indiana (20.4)B10A0-00%-31.2
12-22Iowa (195.6)B10A0-08%-17.1
12-29Hawaii (273.6)BWA0-019%-10.6
1-7North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACA0-060%3.2
1-9North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACA0-014%-12.7
1-14Hampton (315.2)MEACH0-059%2.6
1-16Norfolk St. (313.7)MEACH0-061%3.4
1-21South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACA0-054%1.3
1-23Savannah St. (346.4)MEACA0-067%5.2
1-28Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-078%9.5
1-30North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACH0-030%-6.5
2-1North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACH0-078%9.5
2-4Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACA0-054%1.3
2-6Florida A&M (345.5)MEACA0-060%3.2
2-11Morgan St. (329.9)MEACA0-045%-1.5
2-13Coppin St. (343.7)MEACA0-068%5.7
2-20Morgan St. (329.9)MEACH0-066%4.8
2-25Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH0-059%2.6
3-2Howard (263.6)MEACH0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC28.6326.1321.8845.02-16.11-2.60
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.010.0020.02-0.00-2.40
Morgan St.MEAC0.004.0114.2937.77-0.00-0.98
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.000.0021.94-0.00-2.25
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.0057.1470.990.001.68
HowardMEAC0.002.4116.6744.12-0.00-0.28
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.622.410.0034.22-0.62-0.76
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.392.3714.2931.69-0.28-0.87
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.370.0018.08-0.00-1.51
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.350.0016.61-0.00-1.57
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.320.0035.84-0.00-0.66
HamptonMEAC0.002.3114.2942.72-0.00-0.34
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.310.0026.41-0.00-1.09
RiceCUSA7.161.8471.4370.453.070.75
UMBCAE6.251.8275.0052.793.120.10
BinghamtonAE0.391.8250.0042.700.00-0.26
St. John'sBE6.251.7942.8638.26-0.89-0.42
IowaB100.001.7837.5035.92-0.00-0.50
Montana St.BSky7.091.7840.0061.04-1.420.39
North TexasCUSA0.001.7833.3329.24-0.00-0.74
Texas SouthernSWAC7.091.7842.8665.18-1.010.54
Louisiana LafayetteSB7.161.7866.6762.652.390.45
IndianaB100.001.7587.5073.660.000.83
DelawareCAA6.251.7240.0039.92-1.25-0.35
HawaiiBW0.001.7250.0049.230.00-0.03
SMUAmer6.251.7262.5065.751.560.54
East CarolinaAmer0.000.2777.7849.900.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.620.2125.0030.23-0.31-0.08
James MadisonCAA1.750.2112.5030.68-1.31-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1957.1459.280.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1850.0071.020.000.08
Old DominionCUSA0.390.1871.4368.050.170.06
RutgersB100.000.1885.7145.370.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1766.6746.420.00-0.01
MichiganB100.350.1775.0066.460.170.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.1628.5738.15-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.1622.2226.33-0.00-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1628.5742.90-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1642.8643.60-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1542.8661.11-0.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1522.2238.49-0.00-0.04
TowsonCAA0.000.1542.8653.19-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1557.1433.230.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.1577.7876.040.000.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1525.0031.41-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1571.4354.560.000.01
PurdueB100.000.1475.0075.340.000.07
MaineAE0.000.1314.2924.15-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.1357.1458.840.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1342.8650.12-0.000.00
VermontAE0.000.1362.5071.320.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.520.1257.1453.990.070.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1225.0038.83-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1233.3346.01-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1228.5728.24-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.450.120.0017.61-0.45-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1271.4351.460.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1225.0020.78-0.00-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1237.5035.09-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1214.2943.58-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1287.5068.610.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.1240.0058.82-0.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.1262.5067.390.100.04
HoustonAmer0.000.1285.7178.280.000.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1275.0055.500.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1255.5647.890.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.440.000.06
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.330.000.02
MinnesotaB100.840.1187.5068.020.630.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0038.27-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0962.5056.520.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.350.090.0033.85-0.35-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.0950.0043.390.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0928.5741.52-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0971.4355.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.170.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0950.0048.810.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0920.0035.47-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0950.0040.600.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.350.0933.3352.11-0.120.00
UCFAmer0.000.0985.7176.240.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0962.5043.220.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.69-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.390.0975.0073.060.200.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.390.0942.8655.09-0.060.01
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0077.380.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0975.0066.410.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.360.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0862.5050.710.000.00
Michigan St.B100.390.0855.5658.610.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0025.23-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0066.170.000.03
TulaneAmer0.390.0812.5023.93-0.29-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0742.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0728.5733.77-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.070.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0032.52-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.27-0.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.990.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0655.5646.970.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3354.47-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.960.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5641.690.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5076.230.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0642.8637.34-0.06-0.02
Texas TechB120.390.0687.5062.040.290.01
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.010.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0612.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.01-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
UtahP120.520.0675.0059.790.260.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.520.0633.3336.74-0.17-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.390.060.0039.53-0.39-0.01
La SalleA100.910.0666.6755.540.300.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3354.32-0.000.00
PittsburghACC0.350.0675.0049.180.17-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.590.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
DuquesneA100.620.0344.4442.03-0.07-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
NavyPat0.620.0325.0037.38-0.31-0.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0366.6766.340.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.92-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.540.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0342.8645.94-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.520.0342.8627.96-0.07-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.390.0325.0043.41-0.20-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.520.0342.8630.92-0.07-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
Washington St.P120.520.0342.8628.98-0.07-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.41-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.390.0375.0068.370.200.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.350.0342.8656.04-0.050.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.0342.8660.54-0.050.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.350.0350.0056.740.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.63-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.0357.1449.130.06-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
USCP120.350.03100.0076.680.350.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02