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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:204.0
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:281
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17204.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Penn (254.0)IvyA75-77W100%0.0
11-19North Texas (224.0)CUSAA62-55L0%0.0
11-21Arkansas (19.0)SECA99-71L0%0.0
11-26Iona (51.0)MAACA126-76L0%0.0
11-28Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA65-72W100%0.0
12-2Hawaii (152.0)BWA75-60L0%0.0
12-7Delaware (253.0)CAAA53-66W100%0.0
12-10Campbell (323.0)BSthH55-70L0%0.0
12-13Rhode Island (66.0)A10A83-44L0%0.0
12-17St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA64-72W100%0.0
12-20Oregon (27.0)P12A83-70L0%0.0
12-28Temple (34.0)AmerA66-56L0%0.0
1-10Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH69-73L0%0.0
1-12Howard (255.0)MEACA76-79W100%0.0
1-17South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH60-49W100%0.0
1-19Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH59-50W100%0.0
1-24North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA52-67W100%0.0
1-26North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA55-54L0%0.0
1-31South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA78-74L0%0.0
2-3NJIT (159.0)indA69-51L0%0.0
2-7Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH70-75L0%0.0
2-9Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH90-74W100%0.0
2-14Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA85-91W100%0.0
2-16Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH92-96L0%0.0
2-21Hampton (251.0)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
2-23Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA81-71L0%0.0
2-28Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH65-69L0%0.0
3-2Hampton (251.0)MEACH85-75W100%0.0
3-5Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA92-104W100%0.0
3-9Savannah St. (331.0)MEACN64-58W100%0.0
3-12Howard (255.0)MEACN60-65W100%0.0
3-13North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACN57-63W100%0.0
3-14Hampton (251.0)MEACN82-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.2626.2655.2155.212.742.74
HamptonMEAC5.205.2050.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.713.7156.6756.670.490.49
HowardMEAC3.703.7048.1548.15-0.14-0.14
Coppin St.MEAC3.683.6821.4321.43-2.10-2.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.663.6677.7877.782.032.03
South Carolina St.MEAC3.653.6527.5927.59-1.64-1.64
Savannah St.MEAC3.633.6325.9325.93-1.75-1.75
Norfolk St.MEAC2.332.3356.6756.670.310.31
Morgan St.MEAC2.252.2520.0020.00-1.35-1.35
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.192.1924.1424.14-1.13-1.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.192.1927.5927.59-0.98-0.98
Florida A&MMEAC2.142.147.147.14-1.84-1.84
NJITind1.711.7154.1754.170.140.14
ArkansasSEC1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
IonaMAAC1.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
St. Francis NYNEC1.571.5768.7568.750.590.59
TempleAmer1.571.5768.7568.750.590.59
OregonP121.571.5771.8871.880.680.68
North TexasCUSA1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
Wake ForestACC1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
DelawareCAA1.541.5434.4834.48-0.48-0.48
PennIvy1.541.5433.3333.33-0.51-0.51
CampbellBSth1.521.5221.4321.43-0.87-0.87
HawaiiBW1.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
Rhode IslandA101.521.5268.9768.970.570.57
FordhamA100.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
WinthropBSth0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
DuquesneA100.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
IllinoisB100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Miami FLACC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
CornellIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
MemphisAmer0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MaristMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
AmericanPat0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Texas TechB120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.04100.00100.000.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0425.8125.81-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01