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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:345.0
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:316
Current Record:5-25
Expected Record:5-25
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-15
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:342
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-25345.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Delaware (274.0)CAAH56-62L0%0.0
11-17Penn (283.0)IvyH54-60L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska (165.0)B10A75-60L0%0.0
11-21Lamar (337.0)SlndH66-77L0%0.0
11-24UC Riverside (267.0)BWA81-55L0%0.0
11-27Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA80-59L0%0.0
11-29San Francisco (228.0)WCCA67-47L0%0.0
12-4Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA82-38L0%0.0
12-12Michigan (56.0)B10A80-33L0%0.0
12-15Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA88-59L0%0.0
12-19Temple (60.0)AmerA78-63L0%0.0
12-22Utah (8.0)P12A105-58L0%0.0
12-28TCU (174.0)B12A75-47L0%0.0
1-9Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA63-58L0%0.0
1-16South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA90-79L0%0.0
1-18Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA64-47L0%0.0
1-20Howard (328.0)MEACH67-71L0%0.0
1-25North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH57-55W100%0.0
1-27North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH71-60W100%0.0
1-30South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH41-56L0%0.0
2-6Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA85-56L0%0.0
2-8Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA96-95L0%0.0
2-13Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH75-71W100%0.0
2-15Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA67-71W100%0.0
2-20Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH67-64W100%0.0
2-22Hampton (155.0)MEACH72-82L0%0.0
2-27Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA74-65L0%0.0
2-29Hampton (155.0)MEACA79-65L0%0.0
3-3Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH62-72L0%0.0
3-7Savannah St. (277.0)MEACN63-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.1026.1015.3215.32-18.10-18.10
South Carolina St.MEAC4.034.0351.7251.720.140.14
HamptonMEAC4.004.0064.2964.291.141.14
Savannah St.MEAC4.004.0044.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Coppin St.MEAC3.943.9422.2222.22-2.19-2.19
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.923.9227.5927.59-1.76-1.76
Morgan St.MEAC2.472.4724.1424.14-1.28-1.28
Norfolk St.MEAC2.392.3950.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.342.3437.9337.93-0.56-0.56
HowardMEAC2.342.3431.0331.03-0.89-0.89
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.322.3233.3333.33-0.77-0.77
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.312.3135.7135.71-0.66-0.66
Florida A&MMEAC2.252.2519.2319.23-1.39-1.39
San FranciscoWCC1.781.7846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Old DominionCUSA1.781.7861.7661.760.420.42
UC RiversideBW1.761.7636.6736.67-0.47-0.47
TempleAmer1.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
UtahP121.751.7575.0075.000.880.88
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7578.5778.571.001.00
Fresno St.MWC1.731.7370.9770.970.720.72
LamarSlnd1.721.7224.0024.00-0.89-0.89
DelawareCAA1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
PennIvy1.691.6934.6234.62-0.52-0.52
NebraskaB101.691.6945.4545.45-0.15-0.15
MichiganB101.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
TCUB121.671.6734.3834.38-0.52-0.52
Kansas St.B120.220.2251.5251.520.010.01
PurdueB100.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
William & MaryCAA0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
RiceCUSA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
MarylandB100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1472.4172.410.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
CaliforniaP120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
SMUAmer0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
WashingtonP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ColoradoP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
NorthwesternB100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
CampbellBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01