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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:339
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-14
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:176



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22332.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH61-74L0%0.0
11-16UMBC (165.0)AEA90-68L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA83-82L0%0.0
11-23Rice (167.0)CUSAA80-58L0%0.0
11-26Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA91-66L0%0.0
11-29St. John's (140.0)BEA72-79W100%0.0
12-2Delaware (235.0)CAAA64-49L0%0.0
12-4SMU (13.0)AmerA74-60L0%0.0
12-8North Texas (339.0)CUSAA73-40L0%0.0
12-17Binghamton (311.0)AEA85-66L0%0.0
12-19Indiana (79.0)B10A103-56L0%0.0
12-22Iowa (81.0)B10A89-57L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (300.0)BWA77-66L0%0.0
1-7North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA53-55W100%0.0
1-10North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA68-69W100%0.0
1-14Hampton (283.0)MEACH77-85L0%0.0
1-16Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH70-75L0%0.0
1-21South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA74-64L0%0.0
1-23Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA94-79L0%0.0
1-28Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH68-81L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH74-82L0%0.0
2-1North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH82-65W100%0.0
2-4Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA82-88W100%0.0
2-6Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA77-80W100%0.0
2-11Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA45-56W100%0.0
2-13Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA83-75L0%0.0
2-20Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH54-65L0%0.0
2-25Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH64-65L0%0.0
3-2Howard (337.0)MEACH66-56W100%0.0
3-7Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACN62-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.1126.1133.3333.33-8.70-8.70
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.983.9825.0025.00-1.99-1.99
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.973.9775.0075.001.991.99
Florida A&MMEAC3.923.9215.3815.38-2.71-2.71
Morgan St.MEAC3.903.9044.4444.44-0.43-0.43
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.893.893.573.57-3.61-3.61
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.482.4835.4835.48-0.72-0.72
HowardMEAC2.432.4325.8125.81-1.18-1.18
Norfolk St.MEAC2.372.3746.6746.67-0.16-0.16
South Carolina St.MEAC2.322.3228.5728.57-0.99-0.99
Coppin St.MEAC2.322.3220.6920.69-1.36-1.36
Savannah St.MEAC2.282.2838.4638.46-0.53-0.53
HamptonMEAC2.262.2640.7440.74-0.42-0.42
RiceCUSA1.781.7863.3363.330.470.47
BinghamtonAE1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
St. John'sBE1.751.7543.7543.75-0.22-0.22
UMBCAE1.751.7555.5655.560.190.19
IowaB101.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Montana St.BSky1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
North TexasCUSA1.721.7218.5218.52-1.08-1.08
Texas SouthernSWAC1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
IndianaB101.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
DelawareCAA1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
HawaiiBW1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
SMUAmer1.671.6787.8887.881.261.26
East CarolinaAmer0.270.2745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.190.1928.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
RutgersB100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.150.1568.5768.570.060.06
HartfordAE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
StetsonASun0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
UCFAmer0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MemphisAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.070.0719.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01