live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:207.0
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:47
Current SOS:47
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:213
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24207.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Providence (40.0)BEA82-78L0%0.0
11-10Massachusetts (23.0)A10N73-86L0%0.0
11-14Toledo (38.0)MACH92-95L0%0.0
11-17Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH82-79W100%0.0
11-21Connecticut (22.0)AmerN70-72L0%0.0
11-22Washington (104.0)P12N78-89W100%0.0
11-26Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH75-67W100%0.0
12-4Purdue (145.0)B10A88-67L0%0.0
12-8USC (176.0)P12A78-62L0%0.0
12-12Maryland (78.0)ACCH80-88L0%0.0
12-22Auburn (169.0)SECA77-67L0%0.0
12-28VCU (13.0)A10N50-69L0%0.0
1-1Harvard (46.0)IvyA73-58L0%0.0
1-4Clemson (79.0)ACCH60-62L0%0.0
1-11Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA59-62W100%0.0
1-13Syracuse (16.0)ACCH59-69L0%0.0
1-18North Carolina (25.0)ACCA82-71L0%0.0
1-21Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCH60-68L0%0.0
1-29Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCH76-52W100%0.0
2-1Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA76-73L0%0.0
2-5Virginia (8.0)ACCA77-67L0%0.0
2-8Duke (9.0)ACCH68-89L0%0.0
2-13Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA74-71L0%0.0
2-16Notre Dame (136.0)ACCH69-73L0%0.0
2-19Syracuse (16.0)ACCA59-62W100%0.0
2-22Miami FL (110.0)ACCA69-42L0%0.0
2-26Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCH59-66L0%0.0
3-1Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA72-80W100%0.0
3-4Florida St. (54.0)ACCH70-74L0%0.0
3-9North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA78-68L0%0.0
3-12Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCN73-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.0826.0823.1823.18-13.99-13.99
Georgia TechACC5.365.3643.3343.33-0.71-0.71
Notre DameACC3.793.7943.3343.33-0.51-0.51
Virginia TechACC3.773.7731.0331.03-1.43-1.43
SyracuseACC3.743.7486.6786.672.742.74
ClemsonACC2.362.3661.2961.290.530.53
DukeACC2.332.3375.7675.761.201.20
VirginiaACC2.312.3181.8281.821.471.47
Miami FLACC2.292.2950.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC2.282.2850.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC2.262.2672.7372.731.031.03
Wake ForestACC2.262.2653.1253.120.140.14
Florida St.ACC2.262.2658.0658.060.360.36
North Carolina St.ACC2.262.2660.6160.610.480.48
North CarolinaACC2.212.2170.9770.970.920.92
VCUA101.741.7475.7675.760.900.90
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
MassachusettsA101.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
ConnecticutAmer1.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
ProvidenceBE1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
HarvardIvy1.661.6685.7185.711.191.19
WashingtonP121.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
USCP121.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
ToledoMAC1.641.6480.6580.651.011.01
AuburnSEC1.641.6444.8344.83-0.17-0.17
PurdueB101.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6116.6716.67-1.08-1.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
St. John'sBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
FordhamA100.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
George WashingtonA100.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
CornellIvy0.160.163.703.70-0.14-0.14
ColoradoP120.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
CaliforniaP120.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
DaytonA100.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
RichmondA100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
BryantNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
Oregon St.P120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
MinnesotaB100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
OregonP120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
VMIBSth0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
La SalleA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
SMUAmer0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00