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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:9-23
Expected Record:9-23
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-23219.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH73-79L0%0.0
11-15Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
11-20Stony Brook (176.0)AEH82-75W100%0.0
11-22Towson (88.0)CAAH80-70W100%0.0
11-25Kansas St. (57.0)B12N54-72L0%0.0
11-26Richmond (80.0)A10N67-54L0%0.0
12-3Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH88-70W100%0.0
12-7Harvard (143.0)IvyH66-74L0%0.0
12-9Hartford (327.0)AEH63-65L0%0.0
12-12Auburn (113.0)SECN72-71W100%0.0
12-18Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH82-75W100%0.0
12-21Fairfield (180.0)MAACN83-89L0%0.0
12-23Providence (56.0)BEH79-67W100%0.0
1-1Syracuse (84.0)ACCH96-81W100%0.0
1-3Wake Forest (38.0)ACCA79-66L0%0.0
1-7Duke (6.0)ACCA93-82L0%0.0
1-11North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCH74-66W100%0.0
1-14Syracuse (84.0)ACCA76-53L0%0.0
1-18Virginia (18.0)ACCH54-71L0%0.0
1-21North Carolina (5.0)ACCH82-90L0%0.0
1-25Miami FL (41.0)ACCA78-77L0%0.0
1-29Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCA85-79L0%0.0
1-31Wake Forest (38.0)ACCH80-85L0%0.0
2-4Louisville (7.0)ACCH67-90L0%0.0
2-8Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCH72-83L0%0.0
2-11Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA65-54L0%0.0
2-14Notre Dame (23.0)ACCH76-84L0%0.0
2-20Florida St. (14.0)ACCA104-72L0%0.0
2-25Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCH75-91L0%0.0
3-1Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA82-66L0%0.0
3-4Clemson (69.0)ACCA82-68L0%0.0
3-7Wake Forest (38.0)ACCN92-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.0826.0819.8619.86-15.72-15.72
Wake ForestACC5.225.2255.1755.170.540.54
Virginia TechACC3.733.7366.6766.671.241.24
Notre DameACC3.683.6871.8871.881.611.61
SyracuseACC3.633.6356.6756.670.480.48
DukeACC2.262.2676.4776.471.201.20
Florida St.ACC2.242.2475.0075.001.121.12
ClemsonACC2.212.2151.6151.610.070.07
VirginiaACC2.212.2167.7467.740.780.78
North Carolina St.ACC2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC2.192.1964.5264.520.640.64
PittsburghACC2.172.1746.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Georgia TechACC2.162.1650.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC2.162.1674.1974.191.051.05
North CarolinaACC2.142.1478.1278.121.201.20
DartmouthIvy1.671.6726.9226.92-0.77-0.77
HartfordAE1.671.6725.8125.81-0.81-0.81
FairfieldMAAC1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
RichmondA101.641.6461.2961.290.370.37
Stony BrookAE1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
HarvardIvy1.621.6260.0060.000.320.32
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
TowsonCAA1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
ProvidenceBE1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
Nicholls St.Slnd1.591.5934.6234.62-0.49-0.49
AuburnSEC1.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
Kansas St.B121.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
YaleIvy0.240.2460.7160.710.050.05
MaineAE0.220.2219.3519.35-0.14-0.14
UMBCAE0.220.2257.1457.140.030.03
VillanovaBE0.190.1991.1891.180.160.16
VermontAE0.180.1884.8584.850.130.13
George WashingtonA100.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
PennIvy0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1738.4638.46-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
AlbanyAE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
XavierBE0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.143.333.33-0.13-0.13
NortheasternCAA0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
BinghamtonAE0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
UMass LowellAE0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
Loyola MDPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.120.1278.5778.570.070.07
MaristMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
BaylorB120.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
ColgatePat0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MarquetteBE0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01