Boston College

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	244.0
Current RPI:	244
Expected SOS:	83
Current SOS:	83
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-1
Current OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC RPI:	269
Expected OOC SOS:	161

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	244.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	New Hampshire (296.0)	AE	H	67-64	W	100%
11-18	Holy Cross (177.0)	Pat	N	86-64	L	0%
11-21	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	H	46-82	L	0%
11-24	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	N	62-51	L	0%
11-25	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	N	66-62	W	100%
11-27	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	N	57-75	L	0%
11-30	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	H	54-62	L	0%
12-3	Boston University (190.0)	AE	H	61-75	L	0%
12-8	Providence (156.0)	BE	A	64-57	L	0%
12-11	Stony Brook (152.0)	AE	H	66-51	W	100%
12-18	Bryant (340.0)	NEC	H	75-55	W	100%
12-21	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	H	83-73	W	100%
12-29	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	46-67	L	0%
1-2	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	H	72-78	L	0%
1-7	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	83-60	L	0%
1-12	Clemson (151.0)	ACC	H	59-57	W	100%
1-14	Virginia Tech (116.0)	ACC	H	61-59	W	100%
1-19	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	A	76-62	L	0%
1-21	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	H	56-71	L	0%
1-26	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	A	66-49	L	0%
1-29	Miami FL (60.0)	ACC	H	54-76	L	0%
2-1	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	H	51-56	L	0%
2-4	Georgia Tech (197.0)	ACC	A	51-47	L	0%
2-8	Florida St. (11.0)	ACC	H	64-60	W	100%
2-12	Virginia Tech (116.0)	ACC	A	66-65	L	0%
2-16	Maryland (105.0)	ACC	A	81-65	L	0%
2-19	Duke (5.0)	ACC	H	50-75	L	0%
2-25	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	A	85-56	L	0%
2-29	Georgia Tech (197.0)	ACC	H	56-52	W	100%
3-3	Miami FL (60.0)	ACC	A	77-56	L	0%
3-8	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	N	78-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boston College	ACC	26.14	26.14	20.86	20.86	-15.23	-15.23
North Carolina St.	ACC	5.42	5.42	61.29	61.29	1.22	1.22
Miami FL	ACC	3.85	3.85	58.62	58.62	0.66	0.66
Georgia Tech	ACC	3.83	3.83	34.48	34.48	-1.19	-1.19
Wake Forest	ACC	3.80	3.80	37.93	37.93	-0.92	-0.92
Virginia Tech	ACC	3.78	3.78	48.39	48.39	-0.12	-0.12
Florida St.	ACC	2.34	2.34	75.00	75.00	1.17	1.17
North Carolina	ACC	2.33	2.33	84.85	84.85	1.63	1.63
Maryland	ACC	2.27	2.27	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Clemson	ACC	2.27	2.27	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
Duke	ACC	2.26	2.26	81.25	81.25	1.41	1.41
Virginia	ACC	2.23	2.23	70.00	70.00	0.89	0.89
New Hampshire	AE	1.80	1.80	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Rhode Island	A10	1.79	1.79	20.00	20.00	-1.07	-1.07
Boston University	AE	1.78	1.78	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	1.77	1.77	65.62	65.62	0.55	0.55
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.75	1.75	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Stony Brook	AE	1.75	1.75	72.41	72.41	0.78	0.78
Providence	BE	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Holy Cross	Pat	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	1.69	1.69	85.71	85.71	1.21	1.21
St. Louis	A10	1.69	1.69	76.67	76.67	0.90	0.90
Bryant	NEC	1.69	1.69	6.90	6.90	-1.46	-1.46
New Mexico	MWC	1.64	1.64	80.65	80.65	1.00	1.00
Penn St.	B10	1.61	1.61	35.48	35.48	-0.47	-0.47
UC Riverside	BW	1.61	1.61	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Hartford	AE	0.27	0.27	29.03	29.03	-0.11	-0.11
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.25	0.25	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Albany	AE	0.24	0.24	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.24	0.24	67.65	67.65	0.09	0.09
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.23	0.23	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Maine	AE	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.21	0.21	65.38	65.38	0.07	0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	6.45	6.45	-0.16	-0.16
Brown	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.33	23.33	-0.10	-0.10
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Syracuse	BE	0.17	0.17	93.94	93.94	0.15	0.15
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.15	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.14	0.14	13.79	13.79	-0.10	-0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.04	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01