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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:165.0
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:49
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:193



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19165.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Hampshire (193.0)AEH58-50W100%0.0
11-16Massachusetts (80.0)A10N62-71L0%0.0
11-20New Mexico (172.0)MWCN69-65W100%0.0
11-21West Virginia (24.0)B12N70-66L0%0.0
11-23Dayton (32.0)A10N53-65L0%0.0
12-1Marist (317.0)MAACH79-61W100%0.0
12-5Providence (22.0)BEH69-60W100%0.0
12-11Maine (339.0)AEH85-74W100%0.0
12-14Binghamton (332.0)AEH63-49W100%0.0
12-21USC (207.0)P12H71-75L0%0.0
12-29UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH70-47W100%0.0
1-3Duke (6.0)ACCA85-62L0%0.0
1-6Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCH60-61L0%0.0
1-10Miami FL (65.0)ACCA60-56L0%0.0
1-14Harvard (52.0)IvyH64-57W100%0.0
1-17Virginia (7.0)ACCH51-66L0%0.0
1-20Syracuse (69.0)ACCA69-61L0%0.0
1-25Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCA62-64W100%0.0
1-28Louisville (21.0)ACCH72-81L0%0.0
1-31Clemson (106.0)ACCA64-49L0%0.0
2-4Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA71-63L0%0.0
2-7North Carolina (11.0)ACCH68-79L0%0.0
2-11Syracuse (69.0)ACCH56-70L0%0.0
2-16Miami FL (65.0)ACCH86-89L0%0.0
2-18Florida St. (110.0)ACCA69-60L0%0.0
2-21Notre Dame (16.0)ACCH70-87L0%0.0
2-24Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA71-65L0%0.0
2-28North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCH79-63W100%0.0
3-2Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA59-66W100%0.0
3-7Wake Forest (150.0)ACCH79-61W100%0.0
3-10Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCN66-65W100%0.0
3-11North Carolina (11.0)ACCN81-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.0726.0734.4634.46-8.10-8.10
Notre DameACC3.853.8584.3884.382.652.65
North CarolinaACC3.783.7866.6766.671.261.26
Miami FLACC3.723.7261.2961.290.840.84
Georgia TechACC3.723.7241.3841.38-0.64-0.64
PittsburghACC3.683.6853.3353.330.250.25
SyracuseACC3.653.6555.1755.170.380.38
Florida St.ACC2.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC2.262.2634.3834.38-0.71-0.71
DukeACC2.252.2587.5087.501.691.69
North Carolina St.ACC2.242.2462.5062.500.560.56
LouisvilleACC2.232.2374.1974.191.081.08
VirginiaACC2.212.2190.3290.321.781.78
ClemsonACC2.192.1950.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC2.162.1641.9441.94-0.35-0.35
BinghamtonAE1.791.7917.2417.24-1.18-1.18
ProvidenceBE1.731.7368.7568.750.650.65
MaineAE1.721.7210.3410.34-1.37-1.37
New HampshireAE1.721.7260.7160.710.370.37
UMass LowellAE1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
MassachusettsA101.711.7151.6151.610.060.06
DaytonA101.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
HarvardIvy1.611.6176.9276.920.870.87
West VirginiaB121.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
USCP121.591.5935.4835.48-0.46-0.46
New MexicoMWC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
AlbanyAE0.290.2975.0075.000.150.15
HartfordAE0.290.2944.8344.83-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.260.2665.6265.620.080.08
UMBCAE0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
Rhode IslandA100.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
CornellIvy0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
La SalleA100.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
FloridaSEC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
ButlerBE0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
DavidsonA100.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Kansas St.B120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
NavyPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
LSUSEC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VMISC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0475.8675.860.020.02
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02