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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:69
Current Record:19-15
Expected Record:19-15
Current Conf Record:9-12
Expected Conf Record:9-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1596.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Maine (338.0)AEH85-65W100%0.0
11-12South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-14Sacred Heart (321.0)NECH73-53W100%0.0
11-18Texas Tech (23.0)B12N64-75L0%0.0
11-19La Salle (202.0)A10N61-82W100%0.0
11-22Colgate (185.0)PatH83-79W100%0.0
11-25Providence (32.0)BEA86-66L0%0.0
11-29Nebraska (56.0)B10A71-62L0%0.0
12-2Hartford (198.0)AEA61-73W100%0.0
12-9Duke (7.0)ACCH89-84W100%0.0
12-12Columbia (316.0)IvyH81-66W100%0.0
12-17Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH84-65W100%0.0
12-23Richmond (176.0)A10H78-73W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (1.0)ACCA59-58L0%0.0
1-3Clemson (11.0)ACCH70-74L0%0.0
1-6Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH77-71W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina (4.0)ACCA96-66L0%0.0
1-13Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH86-72W100%0.0
1-15Florida St. (54.0)ACCH81-75W100%0.0
1-21Louisville (38.0)ACCA77-69L0%0.0
1-24Syracuse (45.0)ACCA81-63L0%0.0
1-31Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH80-85L0%0.0
2-4Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH80-72W100%0.0
2-6Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA96-85L0%0.0
2-10Miami FL (28.0)ACCH72-70W100%0.0
2-13Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA58-81W100%0.0
2-17Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH67-84L0%0.0
2-20North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA82-66L0%0.0
2-24Miami FL (28.0)ACCA79-78L0%0.0
2-28Syracuse (45.0)ACCH85-70W100%0.0
3-3Florida St. (54.0)ACCA85-76L0%0.0
3-6Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCN87-77W100%0.0
3-7North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCN87-91W100%0.0
3-8Clemson (11.0)ACCN90-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.1126.1153.7953.791.981.98
Notre DameACC3.593.5954.8454.840.350.35
ClemsonACC3.563.5670.0070.001.421.42
North Carolina St.ACC3.533.5366.6766.671.181.18
SyracuseACC3.513.5161.2961.290.790.79
Georgia TechACC3.513.5143.3343.33-0.47-0.47
Florida St.ACC3.513.5165.5265.521.091.09
Miami FLACC3.513.5172.4172.411.571.57
North CarolinaACC2.222.2270.5970.590.920.92
VirginiaACC2.152.1593.7593.751.881.88
Wake ForestACC2.152.1536.6736.67-0.57-0.57
LouisvilleACC2.112.1159.3859.380.400.40
PittsburghACC2.112.1125.8125.81-1.02-1.02
Virginia TechACC2.092.0964.5264.520.610.61
DukeACC2.082.0881.2581.251.301.30
MaineAE1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
DartmouthIvy1.621.6224.0024.00-0.84-0.84
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
ColumbiaIvy1.581.5828.0028.00-0.69-0.69
Central ConnecticutNEC1.571.5745.1645.16-0.15-0.15
HartfordAE1.571.5760.0060.000.310.31
ColgatePat1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
La SalleA101.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
RichmondA101.521.5238.7138.71-0.34-0.34
South Carolina St.MEAC1.521.5227.5927.59-0.68-0.68
ProvidenceBE1.501.5060.6160.610.320.32
Texas TechB121.501.5071.8871.880.650.65
NebraskaB101.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
BryantNEC0.220.229.689.68-0.17-0.17
AlbanyAE0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
YaleIvy0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.180.1840.7440.74-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
George WashingtonA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.160.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Penn St.B100.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
WagnerNEC0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
RutgersB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1439.3939.39-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Saint LouisA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
St. John'sBE0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.08-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
VillanovaBE0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
FloridaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MinnesotaB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
HarvardIvy0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
DavidsonA100.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
West VirginiaB120.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
DePaulBE0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
DuquesneA100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
WoffordSC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.060.0684.8584.850.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
PortlandWCC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0410.7110.71-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.040.043.333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
OaklandHorz0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
TCUB120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
ButlerBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00