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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:153.8
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:141
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-1
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:158
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1043.00.02%
19-1152.40.08%
18-1270.00.56%
17-1382.81.62%
16-1498.84.70%
15-15114.29.33%
14-16130.215.33%
13-17147.119.88%
12-18163.920.51%
11-19181.415.30%
10-20199.18.38%
9-21216.43.37%
8-22233.80.75%
7-23248.50.14%
6-24256.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14New Hampshire (158.0)AEH58-50W100%0.0
11-16Massachusetts (87.1)A10N62-71L0%0.0
11-20New Mexico (109.7)MWCN69-65W100%0.0
11-21West Virginia (25.6)B12N70-66L0%0.0
11-23Dayton (72.7)A10N53-65L0%0.0
12-1Marist (328.9)MAACH79-61W100%0.0
12-5Providence (80.8)BEH69-60W100%0.0
12-11Maine (324.1)AEH85-74W100%0.0
12-14Binghamton (342.6)AEH63-49W100%0.0
12-21USC (189.1)P12H0-075%7.8
12-29UMass Lowell (184.4)AEH0-076%8.2
1-3Duke (4.6)ACCA0-02%-24.7
1-6Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCH0-053%0.8
1-10Miami FL (23.0)ACCA0-07%-17.2
1-14Harvard (50.6)IvyH0-041%-2.6
1-17Virginia (7.3)ACCH0-011%-14.4
1-20Syracuse (71.5)ACCA0-015%-12.3
1-25Georgia Tech (89.6)ACCA0-025%-7.9
1-28Louisville (7.1)ACCH0-09%-15.4
1-31Clemson (159.7)ACCA0-033%-5.2
2-4Notre Dame (68.4)ACCA0-09%-15.5
2-7North Carolina (11.6)ACCH0-014%-12.7
2-11Syracuse (71.5)ACCH0-038%-3.6
2-15Miami FL (23.0)ACCH0-024%-8.5
2-18Florida St. (207.5)ACCA0-041%-2.5
2-21Notre Dame (68.4)ACCH0-028%-6.8
2-24Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCA0-025%-8.0
2-28North Carolina St. (40.3)ACCH0-032%-5.3
3-2Virginia Tech (212.0)ACCA0-043%-2.2
3-7Wake Forest (156.3)ACCH0-062%3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC27.6626.0457.1435.353.95-7.63
Notre DameACC0.813.9390.9171.250.661.67
Miami FLACC0.003.8790.0074.890.001.93
PittsburghACC0.003.8766.6751.730.000.13
SyracuseACC0.003.8766.6756.710.000.52
Florida St.ACC0.532.3450.0036.810.00-0.62
Virginia TechACC0.002.3255.5637.490.00-0.58
Georgia TechACC0.002.2977.7850.540.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.002.29100.0085.150.001.61
DukeACC0.002.29100.0086.770.001.68
VirginiaACC0.002.27100.0085.180.001.59
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2681.8264.000.000.63
ClemsonACC0.002.2666.6744.930.00-0.23
Wake ForestACC0.002.2450.0037.990.00-0.54
North CarolinaACC0.002.2370.0071.150.000.95
BinghamtonAE5.811.930.0012.29-5.81-1.45
ProvidenceBE5.831.8680.0055.043.500.19
MaineAE5.561.8512.5021.84-4.17-1.04
UMass LowellAE0.001.8455.5655.480.000.20
New HampshireAE5.561.8466.6767.111.850.63
MassachusettsA105.561.8355.5654.150.620.15
DaytonA105.561.7275.0069.092.780.66
HarvardIvy0.281.7285.7173.510.200.81
West VirginiaB125.561.7288.8965.844.320.55
New MexicoMWC5.561.6977.7860.623.090.36
USCP120.281.6960.0036.490.06-0.46
MaristMAAC5.561.6711.1119.25-4.32-1.03
VermontAE0.000.3044.4457.85-0.000.05
HartfordAE0.000.2950.0051.050.000.01
AlbanyAE0.250.2633.3348.89-0.08-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.250.2633.3354.74-0.080.02
UMBCAE0.000.2410.0020.91-0.00-0.14
ManhattanMAAC0.830.1922.2237.50-0.46-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1975.0065.410.000.06
CornellIvy0.280.1855.5648.240.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.1728.5731.23-0.00-0.06
Rhode IslandA100.250.1762.5073.190.060.08
DartmouthIvy0.710.1544.4447.53-0.08-0.01
BrownIvy0.250.1540.0033.79-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.670.1533.3342.19-0.22-0.02
ArmyPat0.560.1477.7868.780.310.05
Holy CrossPat0.000.1457.1453.130.000.01
FordhamA100.000.1428.5728.26-0.00-0.06
La SalleA100.000.1450.0049.960.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1460.0064.610.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1360.0064.930.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1387.5065.040.000.04
PennIvy0.560.1237.5033.00-0.14-0.04
NJITind0.310.1236.3640.98-0.08-0.02
BryantNEC0.400.1228.5747.24-0.17-0.01
ColgatePat0.670.1120.0043.08-0.40-0.02
ButlerBE0.310.1180.0072.550.190.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5037.96-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.530.1120.0021.58-0.32-0.06
CaliforniaP120.000.1190.0066.690.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.1187.5077.020.000.06
George MasonA100.560.1125.0025.93-0.28-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1166.6772.340.000.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1114.2930.74-0.00-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1155.5640.500.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1170.0072.830.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.560.1175.0071.730.280.05
RichmondA100.000.1155.5657.090.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0037.220.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0082.080.000.07
YaleIvy0.250.0972.7367.180.110.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0927.2737.85-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.710.0933.3344.71-0.24-0.01
RutgersB100.400.0960.0035.070.08-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.280.0966.6757.860.090.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0844.4449.65-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0890.0084.680.000.06
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0830.0029.80-0.11-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0052.800.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0855.5650.970.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.0850.0032.620.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0890.0067.260.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.080.0031.74-0.31-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.310.0877.7871.960.170.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0875.0068.680.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.280.0855.5661.390.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4439.74-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.340.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.560.0844.4456.51-0.060.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0860.0033.870.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.280.0837.5051.81-0.070.00
StanfordP120.000.0875.0057.570.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0872.7357.280.000.01
VCUA100.000.0870.0071.420.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0860.0056.560.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0825.0037.13-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.280.0866.6754.830.090.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0855.5647.870.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0830.0031.57-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.560.0833.3339.22-0.19-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.590.0850.0057.510.000.01
LSUSEC0.560.0880.0064.110.330.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.0850.0044.900.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.630.000.01
IowaB100.000.0872.7362.590.000.02
KentuckySEC0.250.08100.0094.790.250.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0840.0050.07-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0872.7367.750.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0872.7373.150.000.04
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.730.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3331.58-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0818.1828.02-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.0877.7876.240.000.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.360.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.820.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.590.0680.0069.620.350.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.670.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0636.3638.88-0.08-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.050.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.02-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0636.3664.92-0.080.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.13-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.590.0677.7865.390.330.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.480.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0537.5034.19-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.280.0540.0036.29-0.06-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0533.3349.71-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.310.0530.0028.50-0.12-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0590.9153.850.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0039.44-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0590.0073.870.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0542.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.0011.40-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.79-0.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.560.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.110.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0542.8655.64-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0528.5741.17-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.460.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.008.88-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0575.0078.480.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0540.0050.32-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0530.0043.91-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.930.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0588.8963.800.000.01
KansasB120.000.0588.8969.390.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0536.3633.67-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3327.70-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.280.0525.0038.92-0.14-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.550.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0577.7864.730.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0588.8963.660.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.050.008.63-0.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.050.0036.67-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0544.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0066.180.000.02
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.860.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0588.8955.910.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0516.6730.84-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0580.0070.960.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0371.4348.860.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.310.0385.7170.350.220.01
WagnerNEC0.310.0314.2933.54-0.22-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.0375.0067.580.150.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.030.0017.51-0.28-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.0371.4363.410.130.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5050.40-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.280.0314.2933.32-0.20-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.310.0318.1821.30-0.20-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.280.0333.3345.28-0.09-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.620.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.84-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0320.0029.81-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0328.5747.31-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.300.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.59-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.540.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0318.1844.62-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.280.0375.0069.820.140.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.91-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.050.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0325.0033.17-0.14-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0055.810.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5634.940.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.700.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1456.750.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02