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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:250.0
Current RPI:250
Expected SOS:60
Current SOS:60
Current Record:7-25
Expected Record:7-25
Current Conf Record:0-19
Expected Conf Record:0-19
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:257



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-25250.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH75-49W100%0.0
11-19Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH82-57W100%0.0
11-22Harvard (193.0)IvyH69-56W100%0.0
11-26Michigan St. (12.0)B10N99-68L0%0.0
11-27UC Irvine (75.0)BWN67-80L0%0.0
11-29Santa Clara (251.0)WCCN62-45L0%0.0
12-2Penn St. (125.0)B10H58-67L0%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (261.0)AEH66-68L0%0.0
12-9Providence (40.0)BEA66-51L0%0.0
12-13Maine (317.0)AEH91-60W100%0.0
12-19Delaware (274.0)CAAH69-61W100%0.0
12-22Fordham (176.0)A10N55-64W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (177.0)AEH72-67W100%0.0
1-2Duke (20.0)ACCH64-81L0%0.0
1-7Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH54-82L0%0.0
1-13Syracuse (72.0)ACCA62-40L0%0.0
1-16Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA84-61L0%0.0
1-20Miami FL (9.0)ACCH53-67L0%0.0
1-23Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA76-49L0%0.0
1-26Florida St. (82.0)ACCH62-72L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina (5.0)ACCA89-62L0%0.0
2-3Virginia (3.0)ACCA61-47L0%0.0
2-6Louisville (17.0)ACCA79-47L0%0.0
2-9North Carolina (5.0)ACCH65-68L0%0.0
2-14Syracuse (72.0)ACCH61-75L0%0.0
2-17Clemson (131.0)ACCA65-54L0%0.0
2-21Wake Forest (159.0)ACCA74-48L0%0.0
2-23Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCH56-71L0%0.0
2-27Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCH71-76L0%0.0
3-2North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCA73-72L0%0.0
3-5Clemson (131.0)ACCH50-66L0%0.0
3-8Florida St. (82.0)ACCN88-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.0426.0415.3315.33-18.05-18.05
North CarolinaACC3.733.7381.2581.252.332.33
Florida St.ACC3.713.7156.6756.670.490.49
Notre DameACC3.713.7163.3363.330.990.99
SyracuseACC3.683.6856.6756.670.490.49
ClemsonACC3.663.6651.7251.720.130.13
Georgia TechACC2.222.2256.2556.250.280.28
VirginiaACC2.222.2278.1278.121.251.25
PittsburghACC2.212.2163.3363.330.590.59
DukeACC2.192.1968.7568.750.820.82
North Carolina St.ACC2.192.1946.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Miami FLACC2.192.1977.4277.421.201.20
Virginia TechACC2.172.1756.2556.250.270.27
LouisvilleACC2.142.1473.3373.331.001.00
Wake ForestACC2.142.1433.3333.33-0.71-0.71
UMass LowellAE1.741.7433.3333.33-0.58-0.58
MaineAE1.731.7327.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Central ConnecticutNEC1.691.6914.2914.29-1.21-1.21
New HampshireAE1.671.6760.7160.710.360.36
Michigan St.B101.661.6684.8584.851.161.16
St. Francis NYNEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
FordhamA101.621.6257.1457.140.230.23
ProvidenceBE1.611.6168.7568.750.610.61
Penn St.B101.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
Santa ClaraWCC1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
HarvardIvy1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
DelawareCAA1.561.5624.1424.14-0.81-0.81
HartfordAE0.260.2628.1228.12-0.11-0.11
VermontAE0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.210.2180.0080.000.130.13
BryantNEC0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
RutgersB100.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
IowaB100.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
AlbanyAE0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
UMBCAE0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
CornellIvy0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
NorthwesternB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
BrownIvy0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1670.5970.590.060.06
MassachusettsA100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
VillanovaBE0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Ohio St.B100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
DePaulBE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
IllinoisB100.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarylandB100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
DartmouthIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
RichmondA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DuquesneA100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
PennIvy0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0735.2935.29-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0218.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01