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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:233.9
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:62
Current SOS:54
Current Record:7-16
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:0-10
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18167.70.03%
12-19180.20.16%
11-20193.51.93%
10-21208.48.36%
9-22222.624.30%
8-23237.439.72%
7-24251.125.49%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14St. Francis NY (283.5)NECH75-49W100%0.0
11-19Central Connecticut (350.4)NECH82-57W100%0.0
11-22Harvard (212.3)IvyH69-56W100%0.0
11-26Michigan St. (17.6)B10N99-68L0%0.0
11-27UC Irvine (69.3)BWN67-80L0%0.0
11-29Santa Clara (263.5)WCCN62-45L0%0.0
12-2Penn St. (131.0)B10H58-67L0%0.0
12-6UMass Lowell (275.1)AEH66-68L0%0.0
12-9Providence (44.9)BEA66-51L0%0.0
12-13Maine (301.0)AEH91-60W100%0.0
12-19Delaware (274.4)CAAH69-61W100%0.0
12-22Fordham (187.9)A10N55-64W100%0.0
12-30New Hampshire (198.8)AEH72-67W100%0.0
1-2Duke (21.5)ACCH64-81L0%0.0
1-7Notre Dame (40.1)ACCH54-82L0%0.0
1-13Syracuse (53.0)ACCA62-40L0%0.0
1-16Pittsburgh (45.1)ACCA84-61L0%0.0
1-20Miami FL (12.9)ACCH53-67L0%0.0
1-23Notre Dame (40.1)ACCA76-49L0%0.0
1-26Florida St. (46.8)ACCH62-72L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina (10.8)ACCA89-62L0%0.0
2-3Virginia (6.1)ACCA61-47L0%0.0
2-6Louisville (16.1)ACCA79-47L0%0.0
2-9North Carolina (10.8)ACCH0-05%-18.3
2-14Syracuse (53.0)ACCH0-015%-11.1
2-17Clemson (100.6)ACCA0-06%-16.6
2-21Wake Forest (126.6)ACCA0-019%-9.7
2-23Virginia Tech (127.6)ACCH0-031%-5.3
2-27Georgia Tech (88.1)ACCH0-019%-9.5
3-2North Carolina St. (117.2)ACCA0-08%-15.2
3-5Clemson (100.6)ACCH0-018%-10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.2026.0522.7719.59-14.27-15.84
Notre DameACC4.693.7666.6763.411.561.01
SyracuseACC2.513.7665.2260.500.760.79
North CarolinaACC2.413.7581.8277.391.532.06
ClemsonACC0.433.7360.8758.270.090.62
Georgia TechACC0.432.2352.1750.620.020.03
LouisvilleACC2.462.2281.8276.991.561.20
Florida St.ACC2.422.2268.1863.680.880.61
Miami FLACC2.462.2080.9575.941.521.14
North Carolina St.ACC0.382.2050.0047.660.00-0.10
VirginiaACC2.512.2081.8277.291.601.20
DukeACC2.362.1972.7369.041.070.84
Wake ForestACC0.432.1943.4839.20-0.06-0.47
PittsburghACC2.462.1975.0067.091.230.75
Virginia TechACC0.382.1754.1748.620.03-0.06
UMass LowellAE2.421.8128.5730.18-1.04-0.72
MaineAE2.381.7936.3635.22-0.65-0.53
Central ConnecticutNEC2.371.7513.6414.02-1.72-1.26
New HampshireAE2.271.7357.8955.230.360.18
Michigan St.B102.311.7282.6182.451.511.11
St. Francis NYNEC2.271.6939.1344.86-0.49-0.17
FordhamA102.271.6757.8954.220.360.14
ProvidenceBE2.271.6773.9169.971.090.67
Penn St.B102.221.6647.8344.97-0.10-0.17
UC IrvineBW2.221.6471.4370.640.950.68
Santa ClaraWCC2.221.6427.2728.72-1.01-0.70
HarvardIvy2.221.6436.8439.94-0.58-0.33
DelawareCAA2.171.6122.7324.15-1.19-0.83
HartfordAE0.390.2826.0926.50-0.18-0.13
BinghamtonAE0.300.2321.7424.67-0.17-0.11
Stony BrookAE0.290.2380.9582.700.180.15
BryantNEC0.340.2225.0026.37-0.17-0.10
RutgersB100.140.2221.7420.35-0.08-0.13
VermontAE0.250.2054.1757.520.020.03
AlbanyAE0.200.2075.0075.850.100.10
UMBCAE0.200.2024.0026.41-0.10-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.240.1947.8348.91-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.200.1942.1140.16-0.03-0.04
NorthwesternB100.190.1866.6763.420.060.05
IowaB100.280.1882.6180.580.180.11
BrownIvy0.190.1731.5831.05-0.07-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.240.1773.9172.480.120.07
MassachusettsA100.150.1740.9139.36-0.03-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.240.1750.0051.910.000.01
WagnerNEC0.230.1763.6465.030.060.05
NortheasternCAA0.240.1645.8346.66-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.230.1650.0049.440.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.100.1640.9145.38-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.190.1626.0923.72-0.09-0.08
IndianaB100.190.1679.1774.020.110.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1434.7837.07-0.06-0.04
ColgatePat0.150.1445.4546.10-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.140.1352.1750.420.010.00
VillanovaBE0.190.1386.9686.370.140.10
IllinoisB100.190.1345.8344.11-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1354.1752.340.010.01
WisconsinB100.140.1360.8755.840.030.02
DartmouthIvy0.210.1231.5831.79-0.08-0.04
YaleIvy0.090.1173.6874.650.040.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.1140.0045.51-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1128.0030.73-0.06-0.04
DavidsonA100.100.1160.0057.960.020.02
DuquesneA100.100.1163.6456.430.030.01
William & MaryCAA0.140.1171.4369.840.060.04
VCUA100.150.1173.9173.900.070.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.1159.0953.030.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1145.4551.35-0.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.1145.4554.11-0.000.01
MinnesotaB100.090.1126.0927.82-0.04-0.05
DePaulBE0.140.1034.7834.45-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.090.1054.1751.810.010.00
Ohio St.B100.090.1058.3354.160.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.1028.5731.89-0.02-0.04
MarylandB100.140.1087.5083.690.100.07
MichiganB100.140.1069.5766.220.050.03
Boston UniversityPat0.160.0954.1755.570.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.160.0939.1338.34-0.03-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0966.6765.210.030.03
PennIvy0.100.0938.8937.66-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.100.0820.0020.45-0.06-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.0872.2274.710.050.04
RichmondA100.050.0854.5554.490.000.01
BYUWCC0.100.0866.6769.500.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.0856.5256.610.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.0882.6178.890.070.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0863.6460.940.030.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.220.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0839.1338.57-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.100.0825.0028.89-0.05-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0885.7185.390.070.06
George WashingtonA100.150.0878.2674.420.080.04
NJITASun0.140.0854.1755.250.010.01
KansasB120.150.0881.8277.570.090.05
Saint LouisA100.090.0836.3633.47-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0813.6418.14-0.03-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0859.0959.640.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0845.8341.65-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0871.4368.970.020.03
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0875.0076.240.070.04
LibertyBSth0.140.0834.7836.50-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0820.8323.63-0.05-0.04
MarquetteBE0.090.0862.5056.260.020.01
PurdueB100.100.0879.1776.550.060.04
TempleAmer0.090.0863.6459.840.030.02
FloridaSEC0.140.0865.2266.090.040.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0861.9056.690.000.01
BucknellPat0.050.0854.5558.140.000.01
ButlerBE0.140.0869.5767.230.050.03
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0834.7840.92-0.03-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0833.3337.25-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0856.5253.240.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0891.3084.380.040.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0836.8441.44-0.04-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0833.3332.34-0.02-0.03
George MasonA100.100.0634.7834.15-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0642.8641.97-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0678.2676.810.050.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.500.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0640.0038.50-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0631.8229.14-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0654.5550.110.010.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.750.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0676.1973.400.050.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0512.5012.85-0.07-0.04
ArizonaP120.090.0579.1778.330.050.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0559.0958.880.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0563.6459.440.030.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0530.4335.11-0.04-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.66-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0530.0034.56-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.0032.27-0.01-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.54-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0584.2181.670.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0543.4842.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0540.9140.65-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0579.1780.760.060.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0525.0033.21-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0525.0026.87-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0586.3679.150.000.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0540.0036.77-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0542.8650.41-0.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0522.7323.25-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0513.6413.62-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0530.4332.35-0.04-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0552.1755.930.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.0563.6462.530.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0522.7327.19-0.05-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0565.2260.270.000.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0565.2267.140.030.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0568.0067.970.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0515.0027.26-0.03-0.02
UtahP120.100.0569.5767.480.040.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.0545.0046.77-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0582.6179.550.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0526.0929.20-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0562.5059.780.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0554.1754.130.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.8758.470.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0573.9171.550.050.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0540.9143.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.1755.080.000.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0550.0051.270.000.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0573.9169.830.020.02
TexasB120.050.0569.5762.630.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0578.2678.050.030.03
VMISC0.050.0515.7917.42-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.89-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.130.040.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.040.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0338.1040.73-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0352.1753.380.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.5213.52-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0325.0029.27-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0322.7324.73-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0355.0054.530.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0338.1037.44-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.76-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.36-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.880.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0360.0060.090.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0322.7324.04-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.750.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0320.0026.74-0.03-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0340.9149.27-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.430.010.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.210.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0338.1041.93-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0356.5260.000.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0035.77-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.1751.660.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0359.0959.440.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0315.7920.03-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.140.030.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0354.5556.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0355.0057.480.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0373.9170.060.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0039.79-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0024.36-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0331.5831.96-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0334.7830.36-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0329.1733.15-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.120.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3334.19-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0382.6179.420.000.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.30-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0365.0063.440.000.01