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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:99.6
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:73
Current Record:13-7
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-825.00.01%
22-934.80.12%
21-1044.10.70%
20-1154.73.04%
19-1265.710.20%
18-1379.519.88%
17-1495.626.15%
16-15114.823.35%
15-16135.212.46%
14-17155.23.71%
13-18172.70.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Maine (331.6)AEH85-65W100%0.0
11-12South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACH91-52W100%0.0
11-14Sacred Heart (316.1)NECH73-53W100%0.0
11-18Texas Tech (26.3)B12N64-75L0%0.0
11-19La Salle (182.0)A10N61-82W100%0.0
11-22Colgate (220.5)PatH83-79W100%0.0
11-25Providence (44.5)BEA86-66L0%0.0
11-29Nebraska (100.5)B10A71-62L0%0.0
12-2Hartford (253.5)AEA61-73W100%0.0
12-9Duke (3.1)ACCH89-84W100%0.0
12-12Columbia (278.6)IvyH81-66W100%0.0
12-17Central Connecticut (253.1)NECH84-65W100%0.0
12-23Richmond (201.6)A10H78-73W100%0.0
12-30Virginia (4.0)ACCA59-58L0%0.0
1-3Clemson (14.0)ACCH70-74L0%0.0
1-6Wake Forest (133.8)ACCH77-71W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina (5.5)ACCA96-66L0%0.0
1-13Dartmouth (318.5)IvyH86-72W100%0.0
1-15Florida St. (39.9)ACCH81-75W100%0.0
1-21Louisville (23.4)ACCA77-69L0%0.0
1-24Syracuse (44.3)ACCA0-024%-7.7
1-31Virginia Tech (82.6)ACCH0-044%-1.7
2-4Georgia Tech (145.8)ACCH0-066%4.7
2-6Notre Dame (57.8)ACCA0-016%-11.1
2-10Miami FL (25.8)ACCH0-035%-4.3
2-13Pittsburgh (187.4)ACCA0-066%4.5
2-17Notre Dame (57.8)ACCH0-034%-4.7
2-20North Carolina St. (104.0)ACCA0-033%-5.0
2-24Miami FL (25.8)ACCA0-017%-10.7
2-28Syracuse (44.3)ACCH0-045%-1.3
3-3Florida St. (39.9)ACCA0-015%-11.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC26.3426.0562.5051.826.580.95
Miami FLACC0.263.7877.7870.220.141.53
SyracuseACC0.273.7668.4260.960.100.82
Notre DameACC0.283.7663.1660.000.070.75
Florida St.ACC2.693.7577.7871.591.501.62
North Carolina St.ACC0.402.2265.0055.970.120.27
PittsburghACC0.202.2240.0030.76-0.04-0.85
Wake ForestACC2.762.2244.4441.86-0.31-0.36
Georgia TechACC0.132.2052.6343.430.01-0.29
North CarolinaACC2.762.2078.9574.231.601.06
Virginia TechACC0.262.2068.4257.800.100.34
LouisvilleACC2.632.2077.7868.781.460.82
ClemsonACC2.632.1983.3372.311.750.98
VirginiaACC2.632.1994.4485.662.341.56
DukeACC2.632.1794.4488.052.341.65
MaineAE2.921.8111.1115.36-2.27-1.25
DartmouthIvy2.631.7823.0827.40-1.42-0.81
Sacred HeartNEC2.781.7831.5834.62-1.02-0.55
ColumbiaIvy2.641.7321.4333.54-1.51-0.57
Central ConnecticutNEC2.631.7255.0050.150.260.01
HartfordAE2.691.7252.6347.570.14-0.08
ColgatePat2.581.7052.9452.920.150.10
La SalleA102.571.6942.1144.11-0.41-0.20
RichmondA102.631.6733.3335.55-0.88-0.48
Texas TechB122.571.6477.7870.871.430.68
ProvidenceBE2.561.6468.4259.150.940.30
South Carolina St.MEAC2.501.6429.4132.85-1.03-0.56
NebraskaB102.501.6165.0058.480.750.27
AlbanyAE0.440.2371.4370.240.190.09
BryantNEC0.340.229.5217.12-0.27-0.14
CornellIvy0.150.2033.3333.23-0.05-0.07
George WashingtonA100.130.1945.0043.48-0.01-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1942.1144.96-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.1841.1847.56-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.1852.9460.220.000.04
BrownIvy0.120.1850.0045.140.00-0.02
VermontAE0.280.1775.0077.850.140.09
NavyPat0.150.1760.0055.160.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.270.1736.8445.21-0.07-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.260.1742.1139.94-0.04-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.180.1633.3333.87-0.06-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.180.1640.0042.52-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.260.1631.5829.06-0.10-0.07
RutgersB100.190.1655.0046.690.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1633.3335.21-0.06-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1668.4254.070.050.01
Saint LouisA100.190.1647.3746.92-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.250.1652.9459.250.010.03
St. John'sBE0.240.1647.3742.16-0.01-0.02
PennIvy0.150.1564.7162.720.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.370.1435.0031.83-0.11-0.05
Loyola MDPat0.220.1422.2228.66-0.12-0.06
New HampshireAE0.090.1433.3340.08-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.200.1455.5655.540.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.140.1450.0053.260.000.01
BucknellPat0.260.1461.9068.020.060.05
Penn St.B100.140.1461.9055.760.030.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1364.7164.570.040.04
MassachusettsA100.190.1350.0046.810.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.190.1358.8261.450.030.03
DePaulBE0.120.1342.1134.31-0.02-0.04
IndianaB100.130.1357.8950.710.020.00
Michigan St.B100.190.1385.0083.200.130.09
MinnesotaB100.120.1363.6457.630.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.1368.4254.090.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.190.1383.3381.430.130.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1357.1460.410.020.03
NorthwesternB100.250.1355.0050.330.030.00
KansasB120.130.1384.2179.750.090.08
HarvardIvy0.180.1237.5046.69-0.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.150.1261.1160.440.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1152.6347.390.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.190.1126.3230.49-0.09-0.04
LehighPat0.140.1138.8944.75-0.03-0.01
VillanovaBE0.150.1194.7490.310.130.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1127.7834.50-0.06-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.119.5217.90-0.05-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1125.0031.45-0.07-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.1110.0019.630.00-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1155.5656.740.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.1150.0051.640.000.00
WisconsinB100.190.1150.0046.300.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.200.1173.6871.560.090.05
VCUA100.190.1160.0059.700.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1123.5332.57-0.10-0.04
George MasonA100.070.1145.0041.30-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.130.1084.2178.170.090.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6768.730.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.130.1072.2268.930.060.04
Seton HallBE0.130.1075.0067.890.070.04
LafayettePat0.130.0822.2227.47-0.07-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.0820.0041.73-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0847.3743.02-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.080.009.09-0.13-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0827.7827.10-0.03-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.190.0850.0045.870.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.0816.6724.91-0.09-0.04
The CitadelSC0.070.0818.7518.36-0.04-0.05
TulaneAmer0.130.0863.1657.890.030.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.0868.7567.600.050.03
DuquesneA100.060.0870.0058.090.030.01
IllinoisB100.130.0847.3744.27-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0880.9576.520.080.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0821.0544.26-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.180.0875.0070.700.090.03
MarylandB100.000.0870.0065.250.000.02
TexasB120.130.0863.1657.630.030.01
WoffordSC0.130.0868.7563.690.050.02
AmericanPat0.070.0626.3228.11-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.82-0.04-0.01
MaristMAAC0.130.0521.0522.02-0.07-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0550.0052.460.000.00
FurmanSC0.140.0566.6768.540.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0533.3333.77-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0515.7920.91-0.05-0.03
PortlandWCC0.130.0527.7827.28-0.06-0.02
RiderMAAC0.130.0565.0065.320.040.02
UCFAmer0.130.0568.4260.860.050.01
UCLAP120.070.0565.0062.050.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0561.1158.700.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.050.003.070.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0545.0041.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0538.8940.780.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0568.7563.990.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.0583.3381.370.090.03
LSUSEC0.000.0561.1153.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0572.2274.710.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0583.3384.240.000.04
North FloridaASun0.000.0531.5835.150.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0552.9455.030.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0541.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0578.9577.380.000.03
DaytonA100.070.0547.3750.94-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.130.0578.9572.990.070.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.0542.1146.09-0.02-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0561.1151.910.010.00
TempleAmer0.130.0552.6351.740.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.130.0538.8935.37-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0572.2274.930.000.03
ButlerBE0.060.0566.6763.070.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0546.6746.970.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.055.8819.35-0.06-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0064.110.000.01
IowaB100.000.0547.6244.020.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0561.1147.220.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0573.6862.720.030.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0573.6867.970.030.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0568.4260.550.020.01
MichiganB100.120.0576.1970.740.060.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0544.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0561.9065.160.000.02
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.910.040.02
PurdueB100.130.0590.4888.370.100.04
TCUB120.000.0573.6865.600.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0566.6767.700.000.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0563.1665.970.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0570.0061.440.030.01
XavierBE0.060.0585.7180.080.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0361.9063.140.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0316.6716.16-0.06-0.02
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.61-0.02-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0366.6765.640.020.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.05-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0347.0641.41-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0329.4139.630.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.450.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.00-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.050.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.14-0.03-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0048.980.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.490.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0325.0028.24-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0350.0054.190.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.750.040.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0361.1164.130.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0352.6358.590.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.650.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0380.0078.940.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0368.4264.200.020.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0371.4374.660.030.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0321.0525.970.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0342.1132.47-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.93-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.940.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.110.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.230.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.35-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.260.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
MercerSC0.060.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0352.6345.860.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0370.5973.150.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0323.5328.690.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.01-0.03-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.090.050.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0329.4134.76-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0357.8958.850.000.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.05-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.94-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.380.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.470.010.00
StanfordP120.060.0355.0050.370.010.00
StetsonASun0.060.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0370.5969.630.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0321.0524.750.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0345.0045.030.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.020.020.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.000.0325.0024.150.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0368.4269.250.000.01