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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Boston College

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:233.9
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:317
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-2
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1499.00.01%
15-16141.90.15%
14-17151.50.54%
13-18171.62.18%
12-19188.36.15%
11-20206.412.78%
10-21223.120.19%
9-22239.124.72%
8-23253.919.19%
7-24268.310.23%
6-25281.13.27%
5-26290.50.55%
4-27292.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndH73-79L0%0.0
11-15Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
11-20Stony Brook (275.0)AEH82-75W100%0.0
11-22Towson (157.6)CAAH80-70W100%0.0
11-25Kansas St. (77.0)B12N54-72L0%0.0
11-26Richmond (176.7)A10N67-54L0%0.0
12-3Dartmouth (319.5)IvyH88-70W100%0.0
12-7Harvard (205.8)IvyH0-053%0.9
12-9Hartford (327.4)AEH0-086%12.9
12-12Auburn (88.3)SECN0-022%-9.2
12-18Sacred Heart (320.3)NECH0-086%13.1
12-21Fairfield (144.8)MAACN0-043%-2.2
12-23Providence (74.5)BEH0-026%-7.8
1-1Syracuse (52.7)ACCH0-013%-13.8
1-3Wake Forest (54.7)ACCA0-010%-15.3
1-7Duke (9.9)ACCA0-01%-27.1
1-11North Carolina St. (109.7)ACCH0-033%-5.3
1-14Syracuse (52.7)ACCA0-05%-20.0
1-18Virginia (8.6)ACCH0-04%-21.5
1-21North Carolina (5.3)ACCH0-03%-22.6
1-25Miami FL (46.9)ACCA0-04%-20.5
1-29Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCA0-08%-16.7
1-31Wake Forest (54.7)ACCH0-023%-9.1
2-4Louisville (7.2)ACCH0-05%-19.3
2-8Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCH0-028%-7.0
2-11Georgia Tech (191.7)ACCA0-028%-7.1
2-14Notre Dame (23.3)ACCH0-07%-17.6
2-20Florida St. (40.7)ACCA0-06%-19.1
2-25Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCH0-019%-10.4
3-1Notre Dame (23.3)ACCA0-02%-23.9
3-4Clemson (70.5)ACCA0-09%-16.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston CollegeACC28.5326.0541.3822.09-4.92-14.54
Virginia TechACC0.003.7685.7161.320.000.85
Wake ForestACC0.453.7575.0052.410.220.18
Notre DameACC0.003.73100.0076.140.001.95
SyracuseACC0.003.7371.4365.000.001.12
Florida St.ACC0.002.2287.5064.270.000.63
North Carolina St.ACC0.002.2275.0050.500.000.02
ClemsonACC0.002.2271.4353.610.000.16
LouisvilleACC0.002.2287.5074.960.001.11
VirginiaACC0.002.2287.5077.900.001.24
Georgia TechACC0.002.2257.1434.760.00-0.68
DukeACC0.002.1988.8977.720.001.22
Miami FLACC0.002.1975.0065.080.000.66
PittsburghACC0.002.1975.0048.420.00-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.002.1787.5081.460.001.36
DartmouthIvy7.141.730.0021.35-7.14-0.99
HartfordAE0.001.7222.2226.73-0.00-0.80
FairfieldMAAC0.601.6971.4359.970.260.34
Stony BrookAE7.651.6933.3339.51-2.55-0.35
HarvardIvy0.001.6720.0046.78-0.00-0.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.001.6737.5034.40-0.00-0.52
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC7.141.670.0035.75-7.14-0.47
RichmondA107.141.6742.8646.43-1.02-0.12
TowsonCAA7.651.6450.0055.030.000.17
ProvidenceBE0.001.6475.0056.000.000.20
Nicholls St.Slnd7.141.6433.3334.92-2.38-0.49
AuburnSEC0.001.6185.7156.770.000.22
Kansas St.B127.141.6185.7157.955.100.26
UMBCAE0.510.2480.0054.540.310.02
MaineAE0.000.2414.2924.15-0.00-0.13
YaleIvy0.000.2342.8663.41-0.000.06
VermontAE0.000.2062.5071.320.000.08
VillanovaBE0.000.18100.0084.840.000.13
ColumbiaIvy0.510.1842.8642.62-0.07-0.03
PennIvy0.000.1833.3356.57-0.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1855.5646.970.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.1828.5729.95-0.00-0.07
George WashingtonA100.510.1755.5641.690.06-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.1725.0047.82-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.1657.1458.840.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC1.400.1622.2241.71-0.78-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.140.0020.75-0.00-0.08
Texas TechB120.000.1387.5062.040.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.130.0027.12-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.510.1342.8645.94-0.07-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1375.0070.620.000.06
UMass LowellAE0.000.1322.2238.49-0.00-0.03
MarylandB101.910.1387.5059.331.430.02
XavierBE0.000.1387.5070.890.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1371.4363.170.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1314.2926.74-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0063.27-0.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.510.1150.0044.400.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.1150.0041.310.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.600.1144.4434.65-0.07-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1137.5047.37-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA1.550.1171.4368.050.670.04
HamptonMEAC1.400.1114.2942.67-1.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.600.1162.5069.130.150.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1157.1464.030.000.03
BucknellPat0.450.1166.6766.340.150.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1171.4355.820.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.1142.8661.11-0.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.1150.0043.560.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1150.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1157.1450.420.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1162.5043.220.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1166.6761.550.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3354.47-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1157.1452.030.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.170.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.01-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1087.5075.240.000.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1012.5034.79-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.1071.4348.350.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.10100.0078.850.000.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1040.0041.12-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.1012.5029.71-0.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1055.5647.890.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.1075.0075.340.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.1037.5037.03-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.510.0942.8650.12-0.070.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.510.0914.2932.19-0.36-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.460.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0820.0035.47-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0825.0034.40-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0825.0035.09-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0828.5736.95-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
George MasonA100.510.0862.5046.900.13-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0842.8646.48-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0812.5030.68-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0871.4356.260.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0883.3377.100.000.04
VCUA100.000.0875.0073.060.000.04
VMISC0.450.080.0016.78-0.45-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3339.94-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0825.0038.83-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0850.0040.600.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0871.4359.470.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0828.5734.28-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0816.6739.78-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0837.5037.74-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0871.4368.070.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.420.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0885.7183.660.000.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0816.6729.80-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0842.8654.90-0.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0833.3332.92-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.08100.0076.630.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0850.0056.740.000.01
KansasB120.000.0887.5075.860.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.800.000.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.310.000.01
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.680.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0877.7876.040.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0041.540.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
UCFAmer0.510.0685.7176.240.360.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.61-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.510.0662.5056.520.130.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.510.0614.2938.26-0.36-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.39-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.510.0571.4360.540.220.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.510.0575.0086.710.260.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0562.5058.450.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0550.0030.350.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.050.0034.81-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0544.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0542.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.450.0528.5723.78-0.19-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.93-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.440.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.75-0.00-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.620.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6735.430.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.840.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0571.4370.210.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0533.3352.11-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0542.8658.58-0.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0562.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.490.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.050.0038.27-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0511.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.450.0542.8655.09-0.060.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0516.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0585.7170.060.000.02
TexasB120.000.0557.1438.680.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0342.8660.54-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.600.0320.0021.80-0.36-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.0371.4363.930.220.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.0375.0070.180.260.01
San DiegoWCC0.510.0337.5031.23-0.13-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.0350.0071.020.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0377.7849.900.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.34-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.31-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Green BayHorz0.450.0342.8651.95-0.060.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3333.36-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.450.030.0016.68-0.45-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01