Ohio St.

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	3.4
Current RPI:	4
Expected SOS:	7
Current SOS:	21
Current Record:	20-3
Expected Record:	26-5
Current Conf Record:	8-2
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	49.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	12-1
Expected OOC Record:	12-1
Expected OOC RPI:	9
Expected OOC SOS:	97

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
28-3	1.4	17.09%
27-4	2.2	36.39%
26-5	3.9	29.09%
25-6	6.1	13.51%
24-7	9.2	3.29%
23-8	13.0	0.57%
22-9	21.6	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	73-42	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Florida (14.9)	SEC	H	81-74	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	85-41	W	100%	0.0
11-21	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	85-50	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Virginia Military Inst (264.1)	BSth	H	107-74	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	80-47	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Duke (4.2)	ACC	H	85-63	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Texas Pan American (309.3)	GWC	H	64-35	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Kansas (8.8)	B12	A	78-67	L	0%	0.0
12-14	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	82-58	W	100%	0.0
12-17	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	A	66-74	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	H	70-50	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	H	69-40	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	H	87-54	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	74-70	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	H	71-40	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	47-76	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Illinois (39.4)	B10	A	79-74	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Indiana (20.6)	B10	H	80-63	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	A	45-79	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Penn St. (163.2)	B10	H	78-54	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Michigan (25.3)	B10	H	64-49	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	52-58	W	100%	0.0
2-7	Purdue (65.0)	B10	H	0-0		93%	16.4
2-11	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	H	0-0		78%	8.3
2-14	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	0-0		85%	11.1
2-18	Michigan (25.3)	B10	A	0-0		79%	8.8
2-21	Illinois (39.4)	B10	H	0-0		94%	17.1
2-25	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	H	0-0		77%	7.9
2-29	Northwestern (66.2)	B10	A	0-0		89%	13.1
3-4	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	0-0		56%	1.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Ohio St.	B10	26.32	26.21	89.41	87.17	20.75	19.48
Michigan St.	B10	0.48	3.94	76.19	75.73	0.25	2.03
Michigan	B10	2.59	3.94	76.19	70.83	1.36	1.64
Illinois	B10	2.42	3.92	71.43	65.22	1.04	1.19
Wisconsin	B10	2.71	3.89	78.26	78.27	1.53	2.20
Northwestern	B10	2.52	3.89	65.00	58.67	0.76	0.67
Nebraska	B10	4.72	3.88	57.89	50.14	0.75	0.01
Indiana	B10	4.73	3.86	77.27	77.56	2.58	2.13
Minnesota	B10	0.43	2.41	69.57	62.84	0.17	0.62
Penn St.	B10	2.70	2.38	43.48	39.96	-0.35	-0.48
Purdue	B10	0.42	2.38	65.22	62.38	0.13	0.59
Iowa	B10	2.51	2.36	56.52	51.09	0.33	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	2.47	1.78	43.48	42.01	-0.32	-0.28
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.37	1.75	57.14	58.09	0.34	0.28
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.38	1.75	20.00	25.56	-1.43	-0.86
North Florida	ASun	2.37	1.75	47.83	48.29	-0.10	-0.06
Florida	SEC	2.42	1.75	86.36	80.22	1.76	1.06
Duke	ACC	2.27	1.75	90.48	85.86	1.84	1.25
South Carolina	SEC	2.32	1.69	42.86	40.93	-0.33	-0.31
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.31	1.69	20.00	26.43	-1.39	-0.80
Valparaiso	Horz	2.26	1.67	68.18	65.88	0.82	0.53
Lamar	Slnd	2.23	1.64	65.00	69.63	0.67	0.65
Miami OH	MAC	2.22	1.64	31.58	35.41	-0.82	-0.48
Kansas	B12	2.22	1.64	77.27	77.67	1.21	0.91
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	2.17	1.61	47.37	45.92	-0.11	-0.13
Kentucky	SEC	0.33	0.24	95.83	92.57	0.31	0.20
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.19	0.22	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.25	0.21	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.23	0.19	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.28	0.19	31.82	31.31	-0.10	-0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.18	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.12
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.20	0.16	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.24	0.16	69.57	73.28	0.10	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.16	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.16	8.70	11.67	-0.12	-0.12
Lipscomb	ASun	0.19	0.16	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.19	0.16	19.05	21.29	-0.12	-0.09
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.16	35.00	39.38	-0.06	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.14	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.14	4.76	9.95	-0.13	-0.11
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.14	28.57	34.20	-0.06	-0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.20	0.14	87.50	85.41	0.15	0.10
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	17.39	22.00	-0.09	-0.08
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.13	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.20	0.13	25.00	25.13	-0.10	-0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.13	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.13	90.91	83.85	0.12	0.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.13	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.13	72.73	71.71	0.04	0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.19	0.13	73.91	68.43	0.09	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.13	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.18	0.13	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.15	0.11	40.91	43.66	-0.03	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.11	34.78	38.77	-0.04	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.21	0.11	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.15	0.11	81.82	77.20	0.10	0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.21	0.11	16.67	23.02	-0.14	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.11	17.65	27.10	-0.07	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.11	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.11	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.11	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.14	0.11	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.11	30.00	30.06	-0.06	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.14	0.11	70.83	71.64	0.06	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.11	5.26	7.30	-0.08	-0.09
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.11	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.11	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.11	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.11	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.11	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.11	66.67	68.05	0.05	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.11	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.10	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.10	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.07
NC Asheville	BSth	0.16	0.09	68.18	67.64	0.06	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.13	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.16	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.09	38.10	40.81	-0.04	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.09	33.33	41.31	-0.03	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.09	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.09	68.18	67.91	0.04	0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.08	13.64	16.35	-0.11	-0.06
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.08	27.78	29.58	-0.04	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.08	27.78	29.87	-0.07	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.08	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.08	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.08	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.08	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.14	0.08	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.08	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.08	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.08	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.08	4.00	5.26	-0.09	-0.07
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.08	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.08	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.08	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.08	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.08	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.08	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.08	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.08	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.08	18.18	22.22	-0.09	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.08	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.05	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.05	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.05	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.00	0.05	43.48	44.25	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.00	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.00	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.05	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.05	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.05	38.89	43.93	-0.00	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.05	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.05	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.05	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.00	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.00	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.00	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.04	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01