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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:12.1
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:93
Current Record:8-1
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-12.80.86%
29-24.24.96%
28-36.213.65%
27-48.621.12%
26-511.324.19%
25-614.717.77%
24-718.910.91%
23-824.84.47%
22-930.91.53%
21-1041.40.41%
20-1155.50.11%
19-1274.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMass Lowell (181.9)AEH92-55W100%0.0
11-18Marquette (103.6)BEH74-63W100%0.0
11-23Sacred Heart (163.4)NECH106-48W100%0.0
11-26Campbell (225.7)BSthH91-64W100%0.0
11-28James Madison (158.0)CAAH73-56W100%0.0
12-2Louisville (6.8)ACCA64-55L0%0.0
12-6Colgate (192.1)PatH70-50W100%0.0
12-10High Point (161.7)BSthH97-43W100%0.0
12-13Morehead St. (205.8)OVCH87-71W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina A&T (336.2)MEACH0-0100%38.1
12-20North Carolina (11.7)ACCN0-056%1.7
12-22Miami OH (280.4)MACH0-0100%31.0
12-27Wright St. (129.2)HorzH0-098%23.3
12-30Iowa (46.8)B10H0-086%12.7
1-3Illinois (46.3)B10H0-085%12.4
1-6Minnesota (49.5)B10A0-065%4.5
1-10Indiana (78.8)B10A0-074%7.5
1-13Michigan (132.7)B10H0-096%21.1
1-17Iowa (46.8)B10A0-062%3.7
1-22Northwestern (143.6)B10A0-087%13.5
1-25Indiana (78.8)B10H0-092%16.5
1-29Maryland (45.6)B10H0-089%14.6
2-4Purdue (60.3)B10A0-063%3.8
2-8Rutgers (157.4)B10A0-093%17.9
2-11Penn St. (94.7)B10H0-097%21.7
2-14Michigan St. (32.0)B10A0-053%1.0
2-22Michigan (132.7)B10A0-085%12.1
2-26Nebraska (113.5)B10H0-096%21.1
3-1Purdue (60.3)B10H0-086%12.8
3-4Penn St. (94.7)B10A0-086%12.8
3-8Wisconsin (5.7)B10H0-056%1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1027.8826.1088.8983.7721.6917.63
IndianaB100.313.8180.0060.350.190.79
IowaB100.003.7872.7365.190.001.15
PurdueB100.003.7872.7366.000.001.21
Penn St.B100.003.7590.9157.490.000.56
MichiganB100.003.7555.5645.180.00-0.36
RutgersB100.002.3360.0036.350.00-0.64
MinnesotaB100.312.3077.7865.880.170.73
WisconsinB100.312.2890.9189.770.251.81
Michigan St.B100.312.2770.0071.770.120.99
NorthwesternB100.002.2766.6745.790.00-0.19
IllinoisB100.002.2570.0068.130.000.82
MarylandB100.002.2590.9169.820.000.89
NebraskaB100.002.2266.6744.380.00-0.25
CampbellBSth6.491.7516.6745.74-4.33-0.15
Sacred HeartNEC6.851.7557.1459.760.980.34
LouisvilleACC5.561.74100.0084.915.561.22
James MadisonCAA6.581.7375.0055.043.290.17
North CarolinaACC0.001.7270.0072.560.000.77
High PointBSth5.561.7071.4357.562.380.26
ColgatePat6.611.6922.2244.00-3.67-0.20
Miami OHMAC0.001.6722.2228.02-0.00-0.73
MarquetteBE5.561.6662.5048.851.39-0.04
UMass LowellAE5.901.6462.5056.371.480.21
Wright St.Horz0.001.6455.5654.980.000.16
Morehead St.OVC5.561.6122.2248.86-3.09-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.610.0023.75-0.00-0.85
SyracuseACC0.000.1966.6757.080.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1742.8656.16-0.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.310.1622.2227.64-0.17-0.07
BucknellPat0.000.1640.0036.16-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.1680.0072.430.000.07
VirginiaACC0.310.16100.0086.080.310.11
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1550.0046.750.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.280.150.009.06-0.28-0.12
WinthropBSth0.000.1433.3351.71-0.000.00
RadfordBSth0.310.1450.0054.960.000.01
NJITind0.930.1436.3641.92-0.25-0.02
OaklandHorz0.280.1430.0031.51-0.11-0.05
New HampshireAE0.280.1457.1464.630.040.04
UMBCAE0.000.1410.0021.35-0.00-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1425.0033.31-0.00-0.05
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0082.270.000.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1483.3366.520.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.1340.0058.50-0.060.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.1318.1827.73-0.20-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.1366.6759.740.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.310.1377.7851.200.170.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1355.5638.250.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.520.000.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1380.0063.530.000.04
North FloridaASun0.000.1350.0061.230.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.1390.9171.250.000.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1362.5053.840.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1266.6772.470.000.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1214.2945.16-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1128.5732.96-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1160.0062.380.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1150.0053.430.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1171.4377.180.000.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.1166.6765.150.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0014.53-0.00-0.08
ClemsonACC0.350.1166.6745.880.12-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.350.1122.2238.58-0.19-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.350.1157.1456.250.050.01
BrownIvy0.000.1140.0034.21-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.590.1155.5648.540.07-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1144.4469.77-0.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6770.530.000.04
AmericanPat0.280.1160.0065.090.060.03
FordhamA100.310.1128.5727.72-0.13-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1120.0037.42-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1144.4449.79-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1110.0018.39-0.00-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.590.1125.0038.94-0.29-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1160.0056.480.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1150.0033.140.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.1037.5048.77-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1025.0037.29-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1090.0075.840.000.05
AlbanyAE0.280.0833.3348.50-0.09-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.280.080.0011.93-0.28-0.06
HartfordAE0.350.0850.0050.920.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0837.5048.43-0.08-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0820.0020.84-0.00-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0833.3334.02-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0880.0069.650.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0871.4367.660.130.03
Boston UniversityPat0.310.0833.3342.09-0.10-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0875.0066.870.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0872.7351.370.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0855.5639.260.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0019.38-0.00-0.05
OregonP120.000.0862.5057.800.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0871.4360.170.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6741.850.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.400.0850.0045.540.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.310.0844.4447.41-0.03-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0833.3338.84-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0844.4433.13-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0833.3331.09-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.350.0857.1452.850.050.00
LafayettePat0.350.0875.0069.750.170.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0887.5064.670.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0855.5665.940.000.03
UABCUSA0.280.0833.3338.27-0.09-0.02
Arizona St.P120.590.0860.0053.940.120.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0875.0069.770.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0822.2230.95-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0828.5741.09-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0820.0021.16-0.00-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0833.3343.11-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0888.8964.060.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0825.0047.42-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0842.8655.87-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0814.2933.61-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0857.1456.130.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0888.8964.670.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0844.4431.46-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0890.0079.360.000.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0811.1145.10-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.540.000.02
HawaiiBW0.350.0666.6753.390.120.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.0611.1129.23-0.27-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.00-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.310.0662.5072.760.080.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5054.91-0.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0015.96-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.280.0675.0065.380.140.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.400.0633.3340.42-0.13-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.350.0611.1130.96-0.27-0.02
RichmondA100.660.0650.0056.190.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.380.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0637.5051.76-0.080.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0622.2245.74-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.930.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.73-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0013.10-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0017.65-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
DavidsonA100.400.0587.5076.910.300.03
FIUCUSA0.310.0550.0054.480.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0522.2231.80-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0550.0056.650.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0577.7869.100.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5746.92-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6739.030.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0542.8651.80-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0525.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3326.81-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0537.5037.71-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0033.19-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0550.0037.020.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0572.7352.480.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0580.0071.140.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0533.3347.31-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0583.3363.180.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0049.220.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0562.5054.950.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0520.0033.83-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.890.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.21-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.310.0537.5037.27-0.08-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6776.390.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0011.08-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0540.0044.19-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0577.7877.550.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0520.0026.66-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0038.270.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0094.460.000.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2932.21-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.62-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0039.09-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0555.5656.150.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0575.0061.240.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0571.4360.450.000.01
TexasB120.000.0590.0081.780.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0566.6751.390.000.00
USCP120.000.0560.0037.100.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3639.31-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.0371.4364.440.120.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.81-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0333.3343.17-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0370.0066.510.110.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0058.490.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0387.5080.890.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0322.2236.43-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.24-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.280.0371.4350.790.120.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.02-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.640.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.570.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0029.22-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.380.000.01
La SalleA100.280.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0337.5045.72-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.13-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.17-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.310.0357.1445.530.04-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2242.30-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0370.0064.560.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0065.960.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4450.93-0.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.780.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0360.0064.120.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.900.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0330.0028.28-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.27-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.790.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0037.01-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7868.030.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8964.140.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0345.4551.71-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.60-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.450.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6729.59-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.85-0.00-0.01