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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:74.0
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1374.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH76-54W100%0.0
11-17Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH82-55W100%0.0
11-20UT Arlington (105.0)SBH68-73L0%0.0
11-24Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH74-82L0%0.0
11-27Memphis (139.0)AmerN81-76L0%0.0
12-1Virginia (3.0)ACCH58-64L0%0.0
12-5VMI (316.0)SCH89-62W100%0.0
12-8Air Force (226.0)MWCH74-50W100%0.0
12-12Connecticut (32.0)AmerA75-55L0%0.0
12-16Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH67-54W100%0.0
12-19Kentucky (11.0)SECN74-67W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (194.0)SCH64-44W100%0.0
12-27South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
12-30Minnesota (257.0)B10H78-63W100%0.0
1-3Illinois (149.0)B10H75-73W100%0.0
1-6Northwestern (115.0)B10A56-65W100%0.0
1-10Indiana (24.0)B10A85-60L0%0.0
1-13Rutgers (294.0)B10H94-68W100%0.0
1-16Maryland (14.0)B10A100-65L0%0.0
1-21Purdue (15.0)B10A75-64L0%0.0
1-25Penn St. (125.0)B10H66-46W100%0.0
1-28Illinois (149.0)B10A63-68W100%0.0
1-31Maryland (14.0)B10H61-66L0%0.0
2-4Wisconsin (43.0)B10A79-68L0%0.0
2-9Northwestern (115.0)B10H71-63W100%0.0
2-13Rutgers (294.0)B10A69-79W100%0.0
2-16Michigan (56.0)B10H76-66W100%0.0
2-20Nebraska (165.0)B10A62-65W100%0.0
2-23Michigan St. (12.0)B10H62-81L0%0.0
2-28Iowa (28.0)B10H68-64W100%0.0
3-5Michigan St. (12.0)B10A91-76L0%0.0
3-10Penn St. (125.0)B10N79-75W100%0.0
3-11Michigan St. (12.0)B10N81-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.1526.1555.9455.943.113.11
Michigan St.B105.165.1683.8783.873.493.49
MarylandB103.703.7073.3373.331.731.73
Penn St.B103.663.6653.3353.330.240.24
IllinoisB103.643.6446.8846.88-0.23-0.23
RutgersB103.633.6320.6920.69-2.13-2.13
NorthwesternB103.613.6166.6766.671.201.20
NebraskaB102.272.2748.4848.48-0.07-0.07
MichiganB102.242.2465.6265.620.700.70
PurdueB102.232.2375.7675.761.151.15
MinnesotaB102.192.1926.6726.67-1.02-1.02
WisconsinB102.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
IowaB102.182.1870.0070.000.870.87
IndianaB102.122.1277.4277.421.161.16
MemphisAmer1.661.6654.5554.550.150.15
ConnecticutAmer1.651.6569.7069.700.650.65
VMISC1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
UT ArlingtonSB1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Louisiana TechCUSA1.591.5968.9768.970.600.60
Grambling St.SWAC1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
MercerSC1.571.5756.6756.670.210.21
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.561.5643.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Air ForceMWC1.521.5241.3841.38-0.26-0.26
KentuckySEC1.521.5278.7978.790.870.87
Northern IllinoisMAC1.521.5260.7160.710.320.32
South Carolina St.MEAC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
VirginiaACC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1822.8622.86-0.10-0.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
SamfordSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
FurmanSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1424.2424.24-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
North CarolinaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
MissouriSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
FloridaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
UMass LowellAE0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Notre DameACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
ProvidenceBE0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
KansasB120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UCFAmer0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
IUPUISum0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
YaleIvy0.040.0477.7877.780.020.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00