live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:24.0
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:16
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:12-9
Expected Conf Record:12-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-924.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH89-50W100%0.0
11-12Ohio (87.0)MACH79-69W100%0.0
11-16Marquette (92.0)BEA35-52W100%0.0
11-20American (118.0)PatH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Wyoming (135.0)MWCH65-50W100%0.0
11-29North Florida (189.0)ASunH99-64W100%0.0
12-4Maryland (78.0)ACCH76-60W100%0.0
12-7Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH74-56W100%0.0
12-11Bryant (177.0)NECH86-48W100%0.0
12-14North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH79-62W100%0.0
12-18Delaware (65.0)CAAH76-64W100%0.0
12-21Notre Dame (136.0)ACCN61-64W100%0.0
12-27Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH71-31W100%0.0
12-31Purdue (145.0)B10A69-78W100%0.0
1-4Nebraska (48.0)B10H84-53W100%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (18.0)B10A72-68L0%0.0
1-12Iowa (56.0)B10H74-84L0%0.0
1-16Minnesota (50.0)B10A63-53L0%0.0
1-20Nebraska (48.0)B10A68-62L0%0.0
1-23Illinois (70.0)B10H62-55W100%0.0
1-29Penn St. (114.0)B10H70-71L0%0.0
2-1Wisconsin (6.0)B10A58-59W100%0.0
2-4Iowa (56.0)B10A69-76W100%0.0
2-8Purdue (145.0)B10H67-49W100%0.0
2-11Michigan (11.0)B10H60-70L0%0.0
2-15Illinois (70.0)B10A39-48W100%0.0
2-19Northwestern (123.0)B10H76-60W100%0.0
2-22Minnesota (50.0)B10H64-46W100%0.0
2-27Penn St. (114.0)B10A65-63L0%0.0
3-2Indiana (102.0)B10A72-64L0%0.0
3-9Michigan St. (18.0)B10H69-67W100%0.0
3-13Purdue (145.0)B10N63-61W100%0.0
3-14Nebraska (48.0)B10N67-71W100%0.0
3-15Michigan (11.0)B10N72-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.3426.3471.1371.1311.1311.13
PurdueB105.105.1051.7251.720.180.18
NebraskaB105.075.0764.2964.291.451.45
MichiganB103.793.7974.1974.191.831.83
Michigan St.B103.723.7278.1278.122.092.09
Penn St.B103.723.7243.3343.33-0.50-0.50
IllinoisB103.703.7061.2961.290.830.83
MinnesotaB103.693.6960.0060.000.740.74
IowaB103.643.6462.0762.070.880.88
NorthwesternB102.342.3443.7543.75-0.29-0.29
WisconsinB102.342.3481.2581.251.461.46
IndianaB102.312.3151.6151.610.070.07
Notre DameACC1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
Central ConnecticutNEC1.591.5935.7135.71-0.45-0.45
DelawareCAA1.541.5475.7675.760.800.80
North Dakota St.Sum1.541.5481.4881.480.970.97
North FloridaASun1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC1.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
Morgan St.MEAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC1.491.4968.7568.750.560.56
MarquetteBE1.491.4954.8454.840.140.14
AmericanPat1.471.4764.5264.520.430.43
Louisiana MonroeSB1.471.4736.0036.00-0.41-0.41
WyomingMWC1.471.4755.1755.170.150.15
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1617.8617.86-0.10-0.10
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.070.07
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
ButlerBE0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
BrownIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
MassachusettsA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
BucknellPat0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
StetsonASun0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
The CitadelSC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
ArizonaP120.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
AuburnSEC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0464.2964.290.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0481.2581.250.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0470.5970.590.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0246.1546.15-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00