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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:41.0
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:69
Current SOS:69
Current Record:23-10
Expected Record:23-10
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1041.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH92-55W100%0.0
11-18Marquette (147.0)BEH74-63W100%0.0
11-23Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH106-48W100%0.0
11-26Campbell (323.0)BSthH91-64W100%0.0
11-28James Madison (148.0)CAAH73-56W100%0.0
12-2Louisville (21.0)ACCA64-55L0%0.0
12-6Colgate (194.0)PatH70-50W100%0.0
12-10High Point (89.0)BSthH97-43W100%0.0
12-13Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH87-71W100%0.0
12-17North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH97-55W100%0.0
12-20North Carolina (11.0)ACCN82-74L0%0.0
12-22Miami OH (229.0)MACH93-55W100%0.0
12-27Wright St. (264.0)HorzH100-55W100%0.0
12-30Iowa (43.0)B10H65-71L0%0.0
1-3Illinois (73.0)B10H77-61W100%0.0
1-6Minnesota (98.0)B10A72-74W100%0.0
1-10Indiana (61.0)B10A69-66L0%0.0
1-13Michigan (81.0)B10H71-52W100%0.0
1-17Iowa (43.0)B10A76-67L0%0.0
1-22Northwestern (125.0)B10A67-69W100%0.0
1-25Indiana (61.0)B10H82-70W100%0.0
1-29Maryland (13.0)B10H80-56W100%0.0
2-4Purdue (55.0)B10A60-58L0%0.0
2-8Rutgers (178.0)B10A60-79W100%0.0
2-11Penn St. (108.0)B10H75-55W100%0.0
2-14Michigan St. (23.0)B10A59-56L0%0.0
2-22Michigan (81.0)B10A64-57L0%0.0
2-26Nebraska (158.0)B10H81-57W100%0.0
3-1Purdue (55.0)B10H65-61W100%0.0
3-4Penn St. (108.0)B10A67-77W100%0.0
3-8Wisconsin (4.0)B10H48-72L0%0.0
3-12Minnesota (98.0)B10N79-73W100%0.0
3-13Michigan St. (23.0)B10N76-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.1126.1167.4467.449.119.11
Michigan St.B103.683.6865.6265.621.151.15
Penn St.B103.683.6856.2556.250.460.46
MinnesotaB103.683.6856.6756.670.490.49
PurdueB103.663.6664.5264.521.061.06
IndianaB103.663.6661.2961.290.830.83
IowaB103.633.6363.3363.330.970.97
MichiganB103.613.6148.2848.28-0.12-0.12
WisconsinB102.312.3190.9190.911.891.89
RutgersB102.242.2432.2632.26-0.79-0.79
MarylandB102.232.2384.3884.381.531.53
NorthwesternB102.212.2148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB102.192.1961.2961.290.500.50
NebraskaB102.162.1643.3343.33-0.29-0.29
LouisvilleACC1.671.6774.1974.190.810.81
CampbellBSth1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
Sacred HeartNEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
North CarolinaACC1.631.6367.6567.650.580.58
James MadisonCAA1.621.6261.2961.290.370.37
High PointBSth1.591.5970.3770.370.650.65
ColgatePat1.591.5948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE1.581.5841.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Miami OHMAC1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
UMass LowellAE1.541.5440.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Wright St.Horz1.541.5432.1432.14-0.55-0.55
Morehead St.OVC1.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.521.5224.1424.14-0.78-0.78
Gardner WebbBSth0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
SyracuseACC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
VirginiaACC0.160.1690.6290.620.130.13
Notre DameACC0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
UMBCAE0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
LongwoodBSth0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
VillanovaBE0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
ButlerBE0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
WinthropBSth0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
NJITind0.130.1356.0056.000.020.02
New HampshireAE0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
BrownIvy0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
CornellIvy0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0918.7518.75-0.06-0.06
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
KansasB120.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0429.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00