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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:21.1
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:23
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:38



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-47.30.53%
26-510.16.40%
25-613.521.68%
24-718.330.66%
23-824.724.71%
22-932.911.90%
21-1042.43.42%
20-1152.10.58%
19-1263.00.09%
18-1373.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Robert Morris (151.8)NECH95-64W100%0.0
11-12Radford (143.9)BSthH82-72W100%0.0
11-16Texas Southern (208.3)SWACH82-64W100%0.0
11-19Northeastern (79.5)CAAH80-55W100%0.0
11-23Gonzaga (33.3)WCCN86-59L0%0.0
11-24Stanford (89.2)P12N79-71W100%0.0
11-26Butler (37.4)BEN66-67L0%0.0
11-29Clemson (14.0)ACCH65-79L0%0.0
12-2Wisconsin (128.8)B10A58-83W100%0.0
12-4Michigan (37.6)B10H71-62W100%0.0
12-9William & Mary (95.1)CAAH97-62W100%0.0
12-16Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH80-67W100%0.0
12-19The Citadel (314.7)SCH94-65W100%0.0
12-23North Carolina (5.5)ACCN86-72L0%0.0
12-30Miami OH (185.4)MACH72-59W100%0.0
1-4Iowa (156.8)B10A81-92W100%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (21.5)B10H80-64W100%0.0
1-11Maryland (45.2)B10H91-69W100%0.0
1-14Rutgers (187.9)B10A46-68W100%0.0
1-17Northwestern (127.8)B10A65-71W100%0.0
1-20Minnesota (98.1)B10N49-67W100%0.0
1-22Nebraska (100.5)B10H0-083%10.7
1-25Penn St. (114.6)B10H0-076%8.0
1-30Indiana (115.7)B10H0-082%10.2
2-4Illinois (161.2)B10H0-084%11.0
2-7Purdue (6.5)B10A0-015%-11.5
2-10Iowa (156.8)B10H0-084%10.9
2-15Penn St. (114.6)B10A0-056%1.6
2-18Michigan (37.6)B10A0-040%-2.9
2-20Rutgers (187.9)B10H0-089%13.9
2-23Indiana (115.7)B10A0-063%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.2926.1076.3473.2213.8512.12
IowaB102.563.8450.0046.490.00-0.27
MichiganB102.683.8180.0073.641.611.80
Penn St.B100.353.7861.9057.250.080.55
IndianaB100.353.7857.8952.390.050.18
RutgersB102.733.7557.8949.650.43-0.03
Michigan St.B102.682.2889.4785.972.111.64
PurdueB100.462.2890.4888.480.371.75
MarylandB102.662.2773.6867.501.260.80
IllinoisB100.352.2547.3745.25-0.02-0.21
MinnesotaB102.562.2566.6759.550.850.43
NebraskaB100.292.2566.6761.250.100.51
NorthwesternB102.442.2557.8952.060.380.09
WisconsinB102.442.1952.6347.840.13-0.09
North CarolinaACC2.621.7778.9574.231.520.86
NortheasternCAA2.511.7066.6765.470.840.53
ClemsonACC2.501.6983.3372.311.670.75
William & MaryCAA2.441.6768.7562.290.920.41
StanfordP122.501.6757.8952.050.400.07
ButlerBE2.441.6765.0061.840.730.39
Texas SouthernSWAC2.501.6722.2245.74-1.39-0.14
GonzagaWCC2.441.6480.0082.701.471.07
Appalachian St.SB2.381.6135.2938.61-0.70-0.37
Miami OHMAC2.381.6150.0042.890.00-0.23
RadfordBSth2.381.6161.1160.950.530.35
Robert MorrisNEC2.381.6160.0062.430.480.40
The CitadelSC2.381.6120.0019.07-1.43-1.00
James MadisonCAA0.470.2025.0028.24-0.23-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1823.5332.57-0.09-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1865.0056.340.050.02
Western CarolinaSC0.320.1738.8935.37-0.07-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.190.1673.6869.640.090.06
Virginia TechACC0.190.1668.4257.740.070.03
DePaulBE0.250.1642.1134.31-0.04-0.05
Seton HallBE0.120.1675.0067.890.060.06
DukeACC0.060.1689.4785.210.050.11
Notre DameACC0.180.1663.1661.020.050.03
ElonCAA0.200.1452.6351.080.010.00
HofstraCAA0.200.1457.8959.490.030.03
DrexelCAA0.130.1430.0030.99-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.140.1447.0647.41-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.1378.9569.790.040.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1310.5316.75-0.09-0.09
UCLAP120.180.1365.0062.050.050.03
Chicago St.WAC0.180.130.003.07-0.18-0.12
CreightonBE0.170.1375.0070.700.090.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.1327.7840.97-0.05-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.1266.6765.640.020.04
DelawareCAA0.130.1247.3743.02-0.01-0.02
High PointBSth0.140.1243.7549.23-0.02-0.00
TowsonCAA0.070.1263.1665.970.020.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.1222.2227.33-0.03-0.05
FurmanSC0.190.1166.6768.540.060.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1127.7831.110.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1146.6746.970.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.120.1147.0648.41-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.1183.3381.370.120.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1152.6343.110.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.180.1136.8445.21-0.05-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1150.0048.730.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.120.119.5217.12-0.09-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1152.3848.530.01-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.119.5217.90-0.05-0.07
SyracuseACC0.120.1168.4261.230.050.02
TexasB120.170.1163.1657.630.040.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1121.0523.51-0.07-0.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1040.0030.870.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.1016.6724.26-0.04-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1036.8444.11-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1068.4260.550.040.02
VMISC0.140.0925.0024.15-0.07-0.05
SamfordSC0.140.0927.7832.66-0.06-0.03
WoffordSC0.130.0968.7563.690.050.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.0855.5656.740.020.01
AkronMAC0.070.0847.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0852.9452.230.010.00
Little RockSB0.060.0822.2225.25-0.03-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.0844.4444.92-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0835.0026.12-0.02-0.04
VCUA100.120.0860.0059.700.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.0838.8940.78-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0816.6716.16-0.04-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.0852.6358.590.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0845.0041.30-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.130.0872.2274.930.060.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0862.5058.690.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.120.0842.1132.47-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.130.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0852.6351.690.000.00
HartfordAE0.130.0850.0045.930.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.120.0861.1147.220.03-0.00
BucknellPat0.180.0861.9068.020.040.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0840.0042.52-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0841.1839.16-0.01-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.0820.0023.34-0.07-0.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0810.5327.29-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.120.0831.5835.15-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0842.1140.46-0.01-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0865.0054.670.040.01
FloridaSEC0.180.0873.6871.560.080.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.0838.8943.43-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.0877.7870.480.060.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.0830.0033.47-0.05-0.03
VirginiaACC0.120.0894.7486.140.110.06
ArizonaP120.060.0880.0078.940.040.05
BYUWCC0.060.0880.9576.240.040.04
ColoradoP120.060.0860.0053.720.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.0855.0048.980.01-0.00
KansasB120.120.0884.2179.750.080.05
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0840.0043.35-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0870.5973.150.020.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0830.0032.52-0.02-0.03
PacificWCC0.120.0845.0044.47-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.120.0827.7827.28-0.05-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.0870.0060.470.040.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0865.0065.320.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0863.1657.540.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.120.0837.5033.78-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0847.3742.160.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.110.0894.7490.310.100.06
WashingtonP120.120.0870.0061.440.050.02
Washington St.P120.120.0847.3741.44-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.120.0885.7180.080.080.05
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0677.7879.150.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0644.4454.860.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0668.7567.600.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.0620.0041.73-0.08-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.140.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0650.0045.870.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0657.8950.210.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.030.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0668.4263.650.030.02
UMBCAE0.130.0655.5655.540.010.01
MaristMAAC0.070.0621.0522.02-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.0627.7834.50-0.06-0.02
TCUB120.130.0673.6865.600.060.02
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.860.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0658.8249.760.02-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0625.0031.45-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0650.0054.190.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0627.7827.10-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0650.0059.450.000.01
DavidsonA100.130.0558.8261.450.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0544.4446.00-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.120.0566.6768.730.040.02
HarvardIvy0.120.0537.5046.69-0.03-0.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0566.6767.700.020.02
TulaneAmer0.130.0563.1657.890.030.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.0545.0045.49-0.01-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.130.0542.8635.24-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0521.0525.97-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0544.4446.020.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0533.3333.77-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0561.1153.170.010.00
NJITASun0.060.0538.8942.61-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0541.1838.47-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0557.8953.190.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0517.6523.86-0.04-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0570.0071.230.020.02
TempleAmer0.120.0552.6351.740.010.00
ValparaisoMVC0.060.0547.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0512.5025.45-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0578.9576.130.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.0568.4264.200.040.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0530.0036.500.00-0.01
BaylorB120.120.0561.1156.090.030.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0542.1139.940.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0536.8431.12-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0520.0032.250.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0545.0043.480.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0568.4254.070.020.00
IUPUIHorz0.060.0527.7829.83-0.03-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0527.7829.10-0.03-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.050.0010.67-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0542.1144.960.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0529.4134.76-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.120.0561.9065.160.030.02
OregonP120.060.0565.0063.850.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0510.5318.34-0.04-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.120.0558.8263.210.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0521.0539.48-0.04-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0590.4888.960.050.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0533.3332.94-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0572.2272.980.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0533.3335.21-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0552.9459.250.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.930.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0568.4263.960.000.01
UABCUSA0.060.0561.1164.130.010.01
USCP120.060.0571.4368.280.030.02
UtahP120.060.0563.1659.710.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0564.7164.570.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0568.4270.810.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.750.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.520.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.700.020.00
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0350.0053.260.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0385.7182.090.040.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0358.8262.440.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0336.8435.57-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0375.0077.850.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0340.0042.69-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0322.2228.66-0.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0315.7920.91-0.04-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0383.3384.240.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
OklahomaB120.060.0377.7867.910.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0361.1151.910.010.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.500.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0378.9571.810.030.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0373.6865.260.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.4258.980.020.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0323.5328.21-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0361.9063.140.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.090.00-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0333.3336.48-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0370.0058.090.020.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0329.4133.930.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0338.8946.05-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.080.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0337.5037.68-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.035.8819.35-0.05-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.037.6920.09-0.05-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0316.6724.91-0.04-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0352.9459.340.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0323.5328.69-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0357.1453.050.010.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0318.7536.82-0.04-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.650.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0344.4450.08-0.010.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0357.8950.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.220.000.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0358.8262.820.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0328.5729.94-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.760.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.930.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0333.3333.87-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0311.1118.00-0.04-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0361.1156.830.010.00
YaleIvy0.060.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00