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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:11
Current SOS:11
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:45
Expected OOC SOS:134


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-710.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Albany (130.0)AEH82-60W100%0.0
11-17Rhode Island (201.0)A10N58-69W100%0.0
11-18Washington (88.0)P12N66-77W100%0.0
11-23Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH91-45W100%0.0
11-28Duke (1.0)ACCA73-68L0%0.0
12-1Northern Kentucky (264.0)ASunH70-43W100%0.0
12-8Long Beach St. (115.0)BWH89-55W100%0.0
12-12Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH85-45W100%0.0
12-15NC Asheville (217.0)BSthH90-72W100%0.0
12-18Winthrop (269.0)BSthH65-55W100%0.0
12-22Kansas (5.0)B12H66-74L0%0.0
12-29Chicago St. (320.0)GWCH87-44W100%0.0
1-2Nebraska (104.0)B10H70-44W100%0.0
1-5Illinois (40.0)B10A74-55L0%0.0
1-8Purdue (136.0)B10A64-74W100%0.0
1-13Michigan (20.0)B10H56-53W100%0.0
1-19Michigan St. (9.0)B10A59-56L0%0.0
1-22Iowa (79.0)B10H72-63W100%0.0
1-26Penn St. (186.0)B10A51-65W100%0.0
1-29Wisconsin (32.0)B10H58-49W100%0.0
2-2Nebraska (104.0)B10A56-63W100%0.0
2-5Michigan (20.0)B10A76-74L0%0.0
2-10Indiana (8.0)B10H68-81L0%0.0
2-14Northwestern (168.0)B10H69-59W100%0.0
2-17Wisconsin (32.0)B10A71-49L0%0.0
2-20Minnesota (34.0)B10H71-45W100%0.0
2-24Michigan St. (9.0)B10H68-60W100%0.0
2-28Northwestern (168.0)B10A53-63W100%0.0
3-5Indiana (8.0)B10A58-67W100%0.0
3-10Illinois (40.0)B10H68-55W100%0.0
3-15Nebraska (104.0)B10N71-50W100%0.0
3-16Michigan St. (9.0)B10N61-58W100%0.0
3-17Wisconsin (32.0)B10N50-43W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.3926.3978.8378.8315.2215.22
WisconsinB105.325.3270.9770.972.232.23
Michigan St.B105.285.2879.3179.313.103.10
NebraskaB105.245.2450.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB103.823.8280.0080.002.292.29
IllinoisB103.823.8264.5264.521.111.11
IndianaB103.803.8083.8783.872.572.57
NorthwesternB103.683.6843.3343.33-0.49-0.49
MinnesotaB102.422.4264.5264.520.700.70
IowaB102.402.4065.6265.620.750.75
PurdueB102.352.3548.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B102.352.3533.3333.33-0.78-0.78
KansasB121.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
NC AshevilleBSth1.571.5746.4346.43-0.11-0.11
WinthropBSth1.571.5740.7440.74-0.29-0.29
AlbanyAE1.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
DukeACC1.541.5483.8783.871.041.04
Missouri Kansas CitySum1.541.5423.3323.33-0.82-0.82
WashingtonP121.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
Chicago St.GWC1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
Long Beach St.BW1.521.5258.6258.620.260.26
Northern KentuckyASun1.521.5242.3142.31-0.23-0.23
Rhode IslandA101.521.5228.5728.57-0.65-0.65
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
Nebraska OmahaSum0.240.2434.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Southern CaliforniaP120.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
ButlerA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
OregonP120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
CreightonMVC0.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
OaklandSum0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MarylandACC0.120.1264.7164.710.030.03
Miami FLACC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Wake ForestACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1142.3142.31-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
BrownIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
Texas TechB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
StanfordP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
Texas ChristianB120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Washington St.P120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
TempleA100.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
UCLAP120.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0548.0048.00-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.7593.750.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0385.1985.190.020.02
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ElonSC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01