live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:32.1
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:44
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.20.04%
29-23.20.24%
28-35.41.02%
27-48.33.86%
26-511.88.14%
25-616.613.60%
24-722.517.91%
23-830.018.51%
22-939.315.68%
21-1050.210.74%
20-1163.06.13%
19-1277.12.62%
18-1391.91.15%
17-14106.10.27%
16-15119.00.05%
15-16171.00.01%
14-17151.00.01%
13-18186.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UMass Lowell (254.2)AEH92-55W100%0.0
11-18Marquette (172.6)BEH74-63W100%0.0
11-23Sacred Heart (305.7)NECH106-48W100%0.0
11-26Campbell (292.5)BSthH0-099%28.2
11-28James Madison (214.3)CAAH0-097%22.1
12-2Louisville (12.7)ACCA0-027%-7.5
12-6Colgate (213.2)PatH0-097%22.4
12-10High Point (148.5)BSthH0-096%20.7
12-13Morehead St. (164.2)OVCH0-093%17.7
12-17North Carolina A&T (322.8)MEACH0-099%30.4
12-20North Carolina (17.8)ACCN0-047%-0.8
12-22Miami OH (259.2)MACH0-098%25.5
12-27Wright St. (131.8)HorzH0-092%16.9
12-30Iowa (46.6)B10H0-067%5.4
1-3Illinois (47.9)B10H0-071%6.6
1-6Minnesota (74.0)B10A0-055%1.4
1-10Indiana (88.9)B10A0-058%2.5
1-13Michigan (39.0)B10H0-068%5.6
1-17Iowa (46.6)B10A0-044%-1.8
1-22Northwestern (159.1)B10A0-081%10.6
1-25Indiana (88.9)B10H0-079%9.7
1-29Maryland (40.4)B10H0-069%6.0
2-4Purdue (51.0)B10A0-046%-1.3
2-8Rutgers (229.7)B10A0-091%16.0
2-11Penn St. (130.5)B10H0-090%15.3
2-14Michigan St. (31.5)B10A0-038%-3.7
2-22Michigan (39.0)B10A0-045%-1.6
2-26Nebraska (77.9)B10H0-080%10.2
3-1Purdue (51.0)B10H0-069%5.9
3-4Penn St. (130.5)B10A0-075%8.1
3-8Wisconsin (7.1)B10H0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1031.5326.11100.0071.9031.5311.44
IndianaB100.003.8280.0059.930.000.76
IowaB100.003.8060.0065.670.001.19
PurdueB100.003.7980.0068.780.001.42
Penn St.B100.003.7783.3350.130.000.01
MichiganB100.003.7675.0068.080.001.36
RutgersB100.002.3450.0024.920.00-1.17
MinnesotaB100.002.3166.6759.990.000.46
NorthwesternB100.002.29100.0044.810.00-0.24
WisconsinB100.002.29100.0085.280.001.61
IllinoisB100.002.26100.0066.970.000.77
MarylandB100.002.26100.0073.470.001.06
Michigan St.B100.002.2675.0072.800.001.03
NebraskaB100.002.2375.0054.480.000.20
CampbellBSth0.001.750.0032.93-0.00-0.60
Sacred HeartNEC18.331.7550.0034.600.00-0.54
LouisvilleACC0.001.75100.0079.700.001.04
James MadisonCAA0.001.7375.0049.250.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.001.72100.0070.480.000.70
High PointBSth0.001.7075.0059.020.000.31
ColgatePat0.001.6925.0040.97-0.00-0.31
Miami OHMAC0.001.6750.0031.050.00-0.63
MarquetteBE16.671.6466.6739.045.56-0.36
Wright St.Horz0.001.6466.6758.590.000.28
UMass LowellAE19.441.6475.0044.139.72-0.19
Morehead St.OVC0.001.6120.0055.09-0.000.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.610.0028.31-0.00-0.70
SyracuseACC0.000.1980.0067.890.000.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1740.0058.90-0.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1625.0020.71-0.00-0.10
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0058.780.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.1633.3336.66-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1566.6754.260.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.150.0022.61-0.00-0.08
RadfordBSth0.000.1433.3352.31-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1433.3354.56-0.000.01
NJITind3.750.1420.0028.08-2.25-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1433.3340.07-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0078.020.000.08
OaklandHorz0.000.1420.0029.38-0.00-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.14100.0051.400.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.1433.3349.68-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.140.0028.76-0.00-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.14100.0049.350.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.14100.0084.950.000.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1440.0033.07-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.1480.0071.450.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.14100.0061.980.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1366.6747.140.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1350.0050.280.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0075.610.000.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.120.0066.25-0.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1233.3350.48-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1225.0029.87-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1175.0071.930.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1160.0059.230.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1166.6769.740.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.1166.6754.040.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.110.0064.97-0.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.110.0027.54-0.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1160.0052.120.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.110.0028.01-0.00-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1175.0056.430.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.11100.0057.240.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.110.0039.00-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.1120.0038.78-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.1160.0057.160.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1133.3336.17-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1120.0045.09-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1160.0066.000.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.11100.0044.550.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1140.0066.55-0.000.04
FordhamA101.670.110.0026.74-1.67-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1150.0043.080.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0081.280.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.000.1166.6749.780.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1150.0031.510.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1020.0035.41-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0060.560.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0925.0037.50-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.030.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC2.080.0966.6741.550.69-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0833.3361.54-0.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.080.0024.20-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE2.780.0880.0051.981.670.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0820.0031.41-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.08100.0065.620.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.08100.0062.250.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0875.0064.740.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3345.50-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0875.0055.300.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0875.0064.660.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0031.72-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0833.3344.17-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0840.0039.52-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0825.0055.20-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0840.0040.15-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0860.0063.180.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0054.250.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0825.0031.38-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0860.0047.180.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0866.6761.780.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0820.0031.41-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0043.52-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0860.0068.250.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0052.47-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.080.0036.25-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.08100.0055.470.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0833.3337.42-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.08100.0066.730.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0875.0065.570.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0036.72-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.080.0050.30-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0825.0044.79-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.08100.0052.850.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0038.95-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.080.0030.42-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.080.0043.63-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6772.650.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.080.0017.79-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.0875.0063.470.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.720.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0021.34-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.58-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum2.080.0650.0049.860.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
Rhode IslandA101.670.06100.0060.981.670.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0066.080.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.10-0.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0023.12-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0666.6762.900.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0625.0050.46-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.740.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.830.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0025.13-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0666.6744.670.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0550.0043.100.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0525.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.050.0032.36-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.05100.0053.790.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0566.6753.920.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0533.3346.41-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0533.3333.84-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0089.550.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0525.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.050.0034.32-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.05100.0069.380.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0550.0055.150.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.75-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0540.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0560.0057.210.000.01
LehighPat0.000.050.0035.78-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.050.0044.90-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0540.0028.76-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0533.3340.46-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0053.310.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.98-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.050.0018.08-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0575.0073.980.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0540.0047.31-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0560.0066.760.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0525.0037.60-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0036.60-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0046.130.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.05100.0072.230.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.05100.0073.990.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0566.6754.750.000.00
TexasB120.000.05100.0080.120.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0580.0058.000.000.01
USCP120.000.0550.0028.900.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.72-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0030.030.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.31-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0046.48-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.570.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.110.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.09-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.980.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.82-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.56-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.48-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3340.34-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.15-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.63-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.58-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0064.500.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0044.920.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.30-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.91-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0044.83-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.70-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.110.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01