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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:20.0
Current RPI:20
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:30
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-820.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Robert Morris (196.0)NECH95-64W100%0.0
11-12Radford (128.0)BSthH82-72W100%0.0
11-16Texas Southern (222.0)SWACH82-64W100%0.0
11-19Northeastern (55.0)CAAH80-55W100%0.0
11-23Gonzaga (21.0)WCCN86-59L0%0.0
11-24Stanford (86.0)P12N79-71W100%0.0
11-26Butler (41.0)BEN66-67L0%0.0
11-29Clemson (11.0)ACCH65-79L0%0.0
12-2Wisconsin (114.0)B10A58-83W100%0.0
12-4Michigan (12.0)B10H71-62W100%0.0
12-9William & Mary (94.0)CAAH97-62W100%0.0
12-16Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH80-67W100%0.0
12-19The Citadel (281.0)SCH94-65W100%0.0
12-23North Carolina (4.0)ACCN86-72L0%0.0
12-30Miami OH (159.0)MACH72-59W100%0.0
1-4Iowa (157.0)B10A81-92W100%0.0
1-7Michigan St. (14.0)B10H80-64W100%0.0
1-11Maryland (74.0)B10H91-69W100%0.0
1-14Rutgers (203.0)B10A46-68W100%0.0
1-17Northwestern (168.0)B10A65-71W100%0.0
1-20Minnesota (171.0)B10N49-67W100%0.0
1-22Nebraska (56.0)B10H64-59W100%0.0
1-25Penn St. (77.0)B10H79-82L0%0.0
1-30Indiana (125.0)B10H71-56W100%0.0
2-4Illinois (181.0)B10H75-67W100%0.0
2-7Purdue (9.0)B10A63-64W100%0.0
2-10Iowa (157.0)B10H82-64W100%0.0
2-15Penn St. (77.0)B10A79-56L0%0.0
2-18Michigan (12.0)B10A74-62L0%0.0
2-20Rutgers (203.0)B10H79-52W100%0.0
2-23Indiana (125.0)B10A78-80W100%0.0
3-2Penn St. (77.0)B10N68-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.1026.1071.4371.4311.1911.19
Penn St.B105.245.2458.0658.060.850.85
MichiganB103.803.8081.2581.252.372.37
IowaB103.793.7945.1645.16-0.37-0.37
RutgersB103.733.7345.1645.16-0.36-0.36
IndianaB103.703.7055.1755.170.380.38
PurdueB102.352.3584.8584.851.641.64
Michigan St.B102.262.2690.6290.621.831.83
NorthwesternB102.252.2546.6746.67-0.15-0.15
NebraskaB102.232.2370.9770.970.930.93
MarylandB102.232.2360.0060.000.450.45
MinnesotaB102.212.2148.3948.39-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB102.212.2143.3343.33-0.29-0.29
WisconsinB102.162.1646.8846.88-0.14-0.14
North CarolinaACC1.701.7070.5970.590.700.70
NortheasternCAA1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
ClemsonACC1.631.6370.9770.970.680.68
William & MaryCAA1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
ButlerBE1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Texas SouthernSWAC1.611.6145.4545.45-0.15-0.15
StanfordP121.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
GonzagaWCC1.591.5987.8887.881.201.20
Appalachian St.SB1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Miami OHMAC1.561.5646.6746.67-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Robert MorrisNEC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC1.561.5628.5728.57-0.67-0.67
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
DukeACC0.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
CampbellBSth0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
UCLAP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
TowsonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DelawareCAA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
SouthernSWAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1293.9493.940.100.10
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.129.689.68-0.09-0.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.08-0.08
PittsburghACC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Little RockSB0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.090.099.689.68-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
BYUWCC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00