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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:43
Current SOS:43
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1590.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Navy (208.0)PatA68-78W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
11-17Providence (56.0)BEH72-67W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (271.0)SCH66-38W100%0.0
11-23Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH78-47W100%0.0
11-25Marshall (112.0)CUSAH111-70W100%0.0
11-30Virginia (18.0)ACCA63-61L0%0.0
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH70-62W100%0.0
12-6Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH77-79L0%0.0
12-10Connecticut (118.0)AmerH64-60W100%0.0
12-17UCLA (16.0)P12N86-73L0%0.0
12-20Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH77-40W100%0.0
12-22UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthH79-77W100%0.0
1-1Illinois (62.0)B10A75-70L0%0.0
1-5Purdue (19.0)B10H75-76L0%0.0
1-8Minnesota (20.0)B10A78-68L0%0.0
1-12Wisconsin (35.0)B10A89-66L0%0.0
1-15Michigan St. (51.0)B10H72-67W100%0.0
1-18Nebraska (107.0)B10A66-67W100%0.0
1-22Northwestern (50.0)B10H72-74L0%0.0
1-25Minnesota (20.0)B10H78-72W100%0.0
1-28Iowa (81.0)B10A85-72L0%0.0
1-31Maryland (36.0)B10H71-77L0%0.0
2-4Michigan (25.0)B10A66-70W100%0.0
2-8Rutgers (177.0)B10H70-64W100%0.0
2-11Maryland (36.0)B10A86-77L0%0.0
2-14Michigan St. (51.0)B10A74-66L0%0.0
2-18Nebraska (107.0)B10H57-58L0%0.0
2-23Wisconsin (35.0)B10H83-73W100%0.0
2-28Penn St. (101.0)B10A70-71W100%0.0
3-4Indiana (79.0)B10H92-96L0%0.0
3-8Rutgers (177.0)B10N57-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.0826.0847.8647.86-1.12-1.12
Michigan St.B103.783.7858.0658.060.610.61
MinnesotaB103.773.7774.1974.191.831.83
RutgersB103.753.7543.3343.33-0.50-0.50
WisconsinB103.753.7575.0075.001.871.87
MarylandB103.703.7072.4172.411.661.66
NebraskaB103.703.7035.7135.71-1.06-1.06
MichiganB102.362.3670.5970.590.970.97
NorthwesternB102.322.3266.6766.670.770.77
Penn St.B102.272.2746.8846.88-0.14-0.14
IowaB102.252.2554.8454.840.220.22
IndianaB102.212.2153.1253.120.140.14
IllinoisB102.162.1653.3353.330.140.14
PurdueB102.162.1677.4277.421.191.19
MarshallCUSA1.701.7057.5857.580.260.26
Western CarolinaSC1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
Jackson St.SWAC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
UCLAP121.641.6487.5087.501.231.23
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
VirginiaACC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.611.6125.9325.93-0.77-0.77
UNC AshevilleBSth1.591.5972.4172.410.710.71
ProvidenceBE1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
ConnecticutAmer1.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
NavyPat1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
PittsburghACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
MarquetteBE0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Miami FLACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
FurmanSC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
OaklandHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.050.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0218.5218.52-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01