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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:90.8
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:68
Current Record:16-10
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1047.00.03%
20-1157.71.42%
19-1269.59.67%
18-1381.629.42%
17-1494.940.02%
16-15109.519.43%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Mount St. Mary's (226.5)NECH76-54W100%0.0
11-17Grambling St. (347.6)SWACH82-55W100%0.0
11-20UT Arlington (97.2)SBH68-73L0%0.0
11-24Louisiana Tech (109.9)CUSAH74-82L0%0.0
11-27Memphis (133.4)AmerN81-76L0%0.0
12-1Virginia (6.0)ACCH58-64L0%0.0
12-5VMI (330.8)SCH89-62W100%0.0
12-8Air Force (236.0)MWCH74-50W100%0.0
12-12Connecticut (38.6)AmerA75-55L0%0.0
12-16Northern Illinois (122.0)MACH67-54W100%0.0
12-19Kentucky (13.3)SECN74-67W100%0.0
12-22Mercer (144.2)SCH64-44W100%0.0
12-27South Carolina St. (228.1)MEACH73-57W100%0.0
12-30Minnesota (240.1)B10H78-63W100%0.0
1-3Illinois (157.2)B10H75-73W100%0.0
1-6Northwestern (117.4)B10A56-65W100%0.0
1-10Indiana (29.3)B10A85-60L0%0.0
1-13Rutgers (282.2)B10H94-68W100%0.0
1-16Maryland (8.8)B10A100-65L0%0.0
1-21Purdue (17.7)B10A75-64L0%0.0
1-25Penn St. (137.4)B10H66-46W100%0.0
1-28Illinois (157.2)B10A63-68W100%0.0
1-31Maryland (8.8)B10H61-66L0%0.0
2-4Wisconsin (48.7)B10A79-68L0%0.0
2-9Northwestern (117.4)B10H71-63W100%0.0
2-13Rutgers (282.2)B10A69-79W100%0.0
2-16Michigan (41.0)B10H0-041%-2.4
2-21Nebraska (146.3)B10A0-038%-3.4
2-23Michigan St. (18.7)B10H0-021%-8.7
2-28Iowa (8.2)B10H0-026%-6.9
3-6Michigan St. (18.7)B10A0-08%-15.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1026.3426.1056.3650.153.350.08
MarylandB104.303.8382.6179.222.802.24
RutgersB104.113.8022.7321.32-2.24-2.18
IllinoisB104.153.7847.8346.45-0.18-0.27
Michigan St.B100.463.7880.0081.230.282.36
NorthwesternB104.273.7870.8367.111.781.29
Penn St.B102.272.2850.0047.390.00-0.12
MinnesotaB102.302.2726.0928.15-1.10-0.99
WisconsinB102.462.2762.5058.670.620.39
MichiganB100.542.2572.0069.050.240.86
NebraskaB100.582.2553.8551.300.040.06
PurdueB102.272.2276.0075.181.181.12
IndianaB102.352.2279.1775.011.371.11
IowaB100.462.2279.1778.980.271.29
MemphisAmer2.131.7554.1755.210.180.18
ConnecticutAmer2.081.7570.8369.650.870.69
UT ArlingtonSB2.051.7068.1870.860.750.71
Louisiana TechCUSA2.051.7072.7371.360.930.72
VMISC2.001.6920.0020.48-1.20-1.00
Grambling St.SWAC2.051.6915.0017.77-1.43-1.09
MercerSC1.971.6866.6767.710.660.59
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.001.6746.1548.84-0.15-0.04
Air ForceMWC1.921.6143.4839.14-0.25-0.35
KentuckySEC1.921.6179.1776.931.120.87
Northern IllinoisMAC1.921.6165.0062.450.580.40
South Carolina St.MEAC1.921.6152.1753.010.080.10
VirginiaACC1.921.6179.1776.431.120.85
FurmanSC0.240.1757.6956.200.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.210.1734.7836.09-0.06-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.240.1752.0048.970.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1719.2321.27-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1628.0031.38-0.05-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.240.164.177.54-0.22-0.14
MissouriSEC0.240.1636.0032.69-0.07-0.06
TempleAmer0.190.1665.2262.390.060.04
The CitadelSC0.160.1529.1729.25-0.07-0.06
SamfordSC0.120.1538.4640.25-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1484.0085.050.100.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1413.0418.03-0.13-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.1423.0825.64-0.02-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.1442.8643.95-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1440.0039.42-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.160.1360.0059.840.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.150.1383.3378.350.100.08
TulaneAmer0.190.1338.4637.32-0.04-0.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1372.0070.180.070.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1312.0012.46-0.12-0.10
LouisvilleACC0.080.1376.0073.910.040.06
UMass LowellAE0.190.1337.5037.69-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.040.1387.5084.290.030.09
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1373.0871.580.050.06
FloridaSEC0.080.1364.0062.910.020.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1336.0037.33-0.05-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1258.3358.870.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1226.0928.44-0.06-0.05
WoffordSC0.170.1248.0048.31-0.01-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1142.8641.45-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.170.1163.6465.350.050.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.1113.0414.58-0.06-0.08
South DakotaSum0.160.1142.3143.13-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.120.1134.7836.55-0.04-0.03
George WashingtonA100.160.1172.0070.430.070.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1147.8349.74-0.01-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.160.1140.0039.15-0.03-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1150.0050.880.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1150.0050.520.000.00
CreightonBE0.120.1165.3863.470.040.03
GeorgetownBE0.150.1153.8551.690.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.1029.1726.62-0.03-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.080.1073.0870.170.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.1020.0019.75-0.05-0.06
UCFAmer0.080.1047.8343.65-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.130.0979.1779.050.080.05
Ball St.MAC0.040.0962.5059.920.010.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0931.8236.20-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0947.8352.95-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0934.7834.89-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0832.0033.77-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.5456.600.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0830.4331.63-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0830.4332.18-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.0055.750.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.0813.6413.35-0.09-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.080.0860.0060.920.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.120.0828.5730.34-0.05-0.03
UNLVMWC0.080.0854.1755.730.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.0824.0027.56-0.06-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0857.1460.240.010.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0852.0052.860.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0862.5061.440.010.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0825.0026.16-0.02-0.04
MississippiSEC0.120.0864.0061.040.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0829.6330.87-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.120.0880.0078.010.070.04
Illinois St.MVC0.120.0856.0054.070.010.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0882.6177.560.030.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0856.0055.660.010.01
St. John'sBE0.120.0824.0023.69-0.06-0.04
TexasB120.080.0864.0061.080.020.02
BryantNEC0.040.0823.0823.72-0.02-0.04
DukeACC0.120.0876.0073.090.060.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0872.0069.230.030.03
LehighPat0.110.0839.1342.78-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0866.6766.290.010.03
SyracuseACC0.120.0868.0064.130.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0824.0026.42-0.02-0.04
DePaulBE0.110.0833.3333.86-0.04-0.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0872.0068.870.030.03
KansasB120.040.0883.3381.420.030.05
Loyola MDPat0.110.0832.0033.46-0.04-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.040.0848.0045.69-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.0064.280.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0860.0060.860.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0635.0039.98-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0645.4545.84-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.090.0665.2264.670.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0647.8355.29-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0662.5063.370.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0641.6744.46-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0633.3331.74-0.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0668.0066.750.030.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0641.6743.11-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0630.4334.38-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0640.9141.22-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0628.5735.02-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0662.5059.800.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0656.0057.240.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0618.1823.04-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0618.1825.29-0.05-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0652.1751.940.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0660.8760.120.010.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0659.0956.770.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0622.7322.58-0.04-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.040.0647.6249.23-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.040.0612.5012.74-0.03-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0641.6741.64-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0560.8756.210.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0548.1547.52-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0540.0043.15-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0536.0035.97-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0566.6764.740.010.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0548.0050.99-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0537.5034.54-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0572.0066.650.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0528.0028.34-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0556.0059.610.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0586.9686.020.030.04
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0539.1338.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0512.0012.00-0.06-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0523.8129.48-0.04-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0525.0024.93-0.04-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.040.0566.6763.280.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0540.9139.87-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0552.3851.410.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0580.7781.920.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0552.0049.600.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.080.0575.0077.280.040.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0538.4641.33-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0570.8368.070.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.040.0539.1337.90-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.040.0540.0038.79-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.040.0526.0926.58-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.040.0531.8233.29-0.01-0.02
ElonCAA0.040.0548.0048.33-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0558.3360.350.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0572.7367.670.030.02
VillanovaBE0.040.0588.0086.620.030.04
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0530.0030.99-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0529.1730.14-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.040.0562.5059.270.010.01
BucknellPat0.070.0550.0052.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0565.2264.150.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0556.0055.650.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0576.0076.260.040.03
IUPUISum0.080.0538.4638.52-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0550.0051.400.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0564.0061.350.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0526.3232.38-0.04-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0558.3358.450.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0560.0061.790.020.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0550.0049.050.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.080.0583.3380.440.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0520.0022.33-0.04-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0583.3378.690.050.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0540.0043.52-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0562.5063.810.020.01
YaleIvy0.080.0576.1976.290.040.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0334.7834.91-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0365.3865.340.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0322.7322.61-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0347.8343.64-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.540.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0330.4329.85-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0358.3356.810.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0369.5767.210.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0362.5060.760.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0323.8124.32-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.340.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0345.8346.51-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0356.0054.680.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0320.8322.68-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0345.8351.18-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0373.9172.090.020.01
ArmyPat0.040.0356.0055.430.000.00
DavidsonA100.040.0359.0955.710.010.00
DenverSum0.040.0350.0048.570.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.8351.11-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0369.5769.090.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0366.6768.770.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0370.8370.070.020.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0374.0773.100.020.01
UC DavisBW0.040.0336.3634.16-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0343.4844.22-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.040.0368.0065.640.010.01
DaytonA100.000.0387.5083.680.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0320.0022.69-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0350.0050.420.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0352.0050.510.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0347.6248.51-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0350.0053.010.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0340.0039.49-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0360.0059.940.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0330.4332.19-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0348.0043.71-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0375.0075.150.020.01
Texas TechB120.040.0362.5058.360.010.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0380.0078.490.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0370.8373.510.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0365.2264.480.010.01
XavierBE0.000.0388.0084.240.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0335.0034.88-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
AmericanPat0.040.0328.0030.05-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0356.0053.620.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0338.4640.70-0.01-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0357.6958.190.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0342.3144.54-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.040.0312.5015.98-0.03-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0337.5038.17-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0360.8757.660.010.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0354.1756.890.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0355.5652.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.040.0372.0069.300.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0369.2369.940.010.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0347.8345.05-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0321.0529.38-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0341.6741.41-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0354.1755.060.000.00
New HampshireAE0.040.0359.0956.880.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0317.3920.09-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.040.0357.6957.310.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.040.0342.8646.51-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0350.0051.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.040.0366.6766.950.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0312.5014.81-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0318.1825.82-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0372.0072.950.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0372.7371.580.020.01
UCLAP120.040.0354.1753.010.000.00
UMBCAE0.040.0323.0825.88-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.040.0372.0071.480.020.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.040.0360.0059.040.010.00