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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Ohio St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:30.8
Current RPI:15
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:102



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-22.60.08%
28-35.90.36%
27-48.11.74%
26-511.14.44%
25-614.99.62%
24-719.215.15%
23-824.718.64%
22-931.318.75%
21-1039.814.89%
20-1149.68.94%
19-1260.34.79%
18-1373.51.80%
17-1489.30.52%
16-15102.30.22%
15-16118.00.04%
14-17136.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ohio St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Navy (221.2)PatA68-78W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
11-17Providence (75.1)BEH72-67W100%0.0
11-21Western Carolina (291.4)SCH66-38W100%0.0
11-23Jackson St. (300.4)SWACH78-47W100%0.0
11-25Marshall (88.7)CUSAH111-70W100%0.0
11-30Virginia (4.7)ACCA63-61L0%0.0
12-3Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH0-099%26.8
12-6Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAH0-097%23.4
12-10Connecticut (143.2)AmerH0-089%14.9
12-17UCLA (19.0)P12N0-039%-3.2
12-20Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-098%24.4
12-22UNC Asheville (105.8)BSthH0-093%17.6
1-1Illinois (134.7)B10A0-072%7.1
1-5Purdue (28.6)B10H0-051%0.4
1-8Minnesota (46.1)B10A0-052%0.6
1-12Wisconsin (29.2)B10A0-031%-5.9
1-15Michigan St. (41.5)B10H0-064%4.3
1-18Nebraska (94.1)B10A0-067%5.1
1-22Northwestern (60.3)B10H0-068%5.5
1-25Minnesota (46.1)B10H0-071%6.8
1-28Iowa (164.3)B10A0-071%6.6
1-31Maryland (99.7)B10H0-083%11.6
2-4Michigan (45.6)B10A0-043%-2.1
2-8Rutgers (182.4)B10H0-092%17.0
2-11Maryland (99.7)B10A0-067%5.4
2-14Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-044%-1.9
2-18Nebraska (94.1)B10H0-083%11.3
2-23Wisconsin (29.2)B10H0-051%0.3
2-28Penn St. (136.8)B10A0-075%8.0
3-4Indiana (20.3)B10H0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ohio St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ohio St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ohio St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ohio St.B1028.9126.1088.0070.5121.9710.71
Michigan St.B100.003.8450.0062.650.000.97
MinnesotaB100.003.8385.7167.570.001.35
NebraskaB100.003.8050.0044.960.00-0.38
WisconsinB100.003.7875.0074.870.001.88
MarylandB100.003.7885.7158.770.000.66
MichiganB100.002.3071.4366.850.000.78
IowaB100.512.2842.8644.84-0.07-0.24
RutgersB100.002.2783.3346.040.00-0.18
NorthwesternB100.002.2271.4367.340.000.77
Penn St.B100.002.2262.5044.590.00-0.24
IllinoisB100.002.2257.1443.170.00-0.30
IndianaB100.002.2283.3375.940.001.15
PurdueB100.002.2271.4375.320.001.12
MarshallCUSA8.931.73100.0061.668.930.40
Western CarolinaSC8.931.7320.0019.64-5.36-1.05
Jackson St.SWAC8.931.700.0044.12-8.93-0.20
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.931.7080.0078.265.360.96
UCLAP120.001.69100.0084.310.001.16
VirginiaACC7.651.66100.0081.947.651.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.6642.8638.86-0.00-0.37
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.6450.0066.900.000.55
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.6420.0035.44-0.00-0.48
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.6420.0035.61-0.00-0.47
ProvidenceBE7.651.6483.3358.155.100.27
ConnecticutAmer0.001.6133.3339.76-0.00-0.33
NavyPat7.141.6133.3345.18-2.38-0.16
GeorgetownBE0.000.1950.0047.560.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1828.5733.92-0.00-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0024.77-0.00-0.08
PittsburghACC0.000.1685.7155.550.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0076.650.000.09
MarquetteBE0.600.1671.4363.090.260.04
HowardMEAC0.000.140.0038.26-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1483.3357.990.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC1.020.1466.6758.420.340.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1466.6751.090.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1485.7180.960.000.09
FurmanSC0.000.1420.0049.38-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.1416.6735.65-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer1.110.1485.7159.740.790.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1412.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1485.7162.920.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1371.4354.520.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1385.7180.010.000.08
FIUCUSA0.000.1116.6733.69-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1185.7173.010.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.1157.1461.940.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.1125.0056.92-0.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1175.0047.510.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1140.0067.95-0.000.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.600.1150.0052.140.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1125.0039.28-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1116.6736.35-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.600.1171.4365.740.260.04
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5750.20-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3353.85-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1120.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.510.1150.0051.260.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC1.020.1128.5734.18-0.44-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC1.020.1116.6729.36-0.68-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1116.6732.62-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.000.1185.7176.170.000.06
Green BayHorz0.000.1133.3348.71-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1183.3378.430.000.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1166.6770.140.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1185.7162.410.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1185.7175.950.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1080.0035.960.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.1087.5078.680.000.06
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0083.120.000.07
Notre DameACC0.000.10100.0075.010.000.05
ArizonaP120.000.1085.7170.990.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.10100.0075.690.000.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0933.3323.33-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6732.240.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0840.0037.65-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0833.3345.58-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0840.0030.80-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0850.0053.530.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0816.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0860.0052.760.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0850.0054.490.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0866.6769.810.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.080.0019.51-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.0860.0070.500.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0023.46-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0850.0071.330.000.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0816.6730.27-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0041.31-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0866.6772.440.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0857.1469.300.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0871.4355.750.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0840.0050.71-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0883.3356.560.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0816.6733.82-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0857.1448.240.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0871.4366.730.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0828.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0857.1436.050.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0814.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
NJITASun0.000.0842.8650.32-0.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0642.8638.05-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
MissouriSEC0.600.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0685.7169.010.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.510.0662.5056.500.130.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0583.3369.840.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0512.5022.55-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0542.8650.36-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0557.1447.320.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0571.4350.570.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0557.1448.600.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0583.3363.610.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.600.0520.0041.93-0.36-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0550.0038.430.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0550.0045.410.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0566.6761.340.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0583.3351.920.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0019.30-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0528.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0525.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0514.2928.66-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0550.0036.240.00-0.01
USCP120.000.05100.0075.380.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0557.1464.940.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0557.1448.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0571.4386.030.000.04
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.600.0350.0056.430.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.510.0350.0061.810.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.510.0340.0057.97-0.100.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.510.0380.0055.340.310.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.600.0380.0068.320.360.01
YaleIvy0.510.0333.3364.14-0.170.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0371.4359.850.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.510.0350.0057.480.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
VermontAE0.510.0362.5071.630.130.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0022.69-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.45-0.00-0.01