live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:26.8
Current RPI:27
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:75
Current Record:20-4
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-417.99.88%
26-521.930.27%
25-626.834.93%
24-733.819.18%
23-844.25.16%
22-955.20.57%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Drexel (274.6)CAAH82-81W100%0.0
11-15Niagara (307.1)MAACH73-62W100%0.0
11-18Buffalo (91.4)MACH89-67W100%0.0
11-21Florida (23.5)SECN63-74L0%0.0
11-22Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN66-64W100%0.0
12-1Villanova (3.3)BEH72-86L0%0.0
12-4Columbia (124.9)IvyA78-80W100%0.0
12-8Princeton (51.7)IvyH62-50W100%0.0
12-13Temple (73.2)AmerA65-66W100%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (111.2)MVCH79-65W100%0.0
12-22Virginia Tech (130.3)ACCN62-79W100%0.0
12-29Maryland Eastern Shore (274.8)MEACH78-68W100%0.0
1-2Richmond (104.3)A10A73-77W100%0.0
1-5VCU (45.6)A10H82-85L0%0.0
1-10Rhode Island (96.7)A10H72-67W100%0.0
1-13George Mason (191.9)A10A73-87W100%0.0
1-16Fordham (193.9)A10H80-55W100%0.0
1-20Penn (276.4)IvyN60-75W100%0.0
1-24La Salle (259.3)A10A48-69W100%0.0
1-27Massachusetts (181.5)A10H78-70W100%0.0
1-30Rhode Island (96.7)A10A55-64W100%0.0
2-3St. Bonaventure (45.3)A10H73-83L0%0.0
2-6Fordham (193.9)A10A60-82W100%0.0
2-10George Washington (56.0)A10A66-84W100%0.0
2-13La Salle (259.3)A10H0-097%21.2
2-17Dayton (13.7)A10H0-055%1.5
2-20Davidson (71.1)A10A0-059%2.5
2-24Massachusetts (181.5)A10A0-075%7.5
2-28Saint Louis (209.6)A10H0-095%18.0
3-2St. Bonaventure (45.3)A10A0-052%0.5
3-5Duquesne (113.8)A10H0-085%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.2926.1279.0378.0315.2614.64
La SalleA102.683.9620.0021.76-1.61-2.24
Rhode IslandA104.633.8963.6461.191.260.87
MassachusettsA102.503.8945.4544.55-0.23-0.42
FordhamA104.573.8557.8954.590.720.35
St. BonaventureA102.533.8571.4370.141.091.55
DaytonA100.382.3086.9683.460.281.54
RichmondA102.632.2959.0957.740.480.36
VCUA102.552.2769.5770.091.000.91
George MasonA102.512.2434.7834.75-0.76-0.68
DuquesneA100.232.2460.8757.700.050.35
Saint LouisA100.352.2434.7833.34-0.11-0.75
George WashingtonA102.452.2178.2674.361.381.08
DavidsonA100.322.2161.9058.810.080.39
PennIvy2.371.8941.1839.14-0.42-0.41
Old DominionCUSA2.391.8060.8765.280.520.55
ColumbiaIvy2.131.7670.0067.570.850.62
PrincetonIvy2.141.7376.4777.571.130.95
VillanovaBE2.191.7386.9686.411.621.26
TempleAmer2.191.7368.1864.520.800.50
BuffaloMAC2.221.7259.0959.030.400.31
DrexelCAA2.191.7013.6417.02-1.59-1.12
NiagaraMAAC2.171.6925.0025.43-1.09-0.83
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.181.6730.4334.96-0.85-0.50
FloridaSEC2.131.6465.2265.200.650.50
Illinois St.MVC2.081.6158.3355.950.350.19
Virginia TechACC2.081.6154.1750.550.170.02
BrownIvy0.290.2531.5831.01-0.11-0.10
HarvardIvy0.210.2335.0038.57-0.06-0.05
RiderMAAC0.240.1940.0042.04-0.05-0.03
CornellIvy0.100.1842.1140.24-0.02-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.170.1831.5831.68-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.170.1873.6874.620.080.09
HofstraCAA0.190.1766.6766.770.060.06
Miami FLACC0.150.1782.6177.580.100.09
DelawareCAA0.230.1725.0024.93-0.11-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.280.1645.4543.23-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.130.1650.0044.650.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.220.1672.0069.130.100.06
LafayettePat0.210.1420.8321.68-0.12-0.08
TowsonCAA0.180.1462.5057.730.050.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.250.1452.1753.720.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.149.0912.26-0.12-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.1452.1754.130.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1450.0052.870.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.190.1450.0051.280.000.00
HowardMEAC0.140.1436.3638.97-0.04-0.03
MarylandB100.230.1487.5083.660.170.09
St. John'sBE0.180.1425.0023.45-0.09-0.07
PittsburghACC0.090.1472.7367.600.040.05
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.3144.53-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.180.1352.0054.860.010.01
IonaMAAC0.220.1360.8760.670.050.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.1329.1733.11-0.09-0.04
MississippiSEC0.180.1362.5058.940.040.02
VirginiaACC0.210.1383.3378.460.140.07
BinghamtonAE0.150.1124.0026.44-0.08-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.180.1172.0071.320.080.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.1168.1867.110.030.04
OhioMAC0.050.1163.6461.470.010.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1140.9143.32-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.090.1180.0081.160.050.07
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1154.1754.090.010.01
SienaMAAC0.130.1165.3864.970.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1156.0055.450.020.01
AmericanPat0.170.1129.1731.19-0.07-0.04
CreightonBE0.130.1164.0062.070.040.03
HoustonAmer0.130.1170.8367.980.060.04
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1172.0071.570.080.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1054.1752.000.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.0912.5013.27-0.12-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0960.8758.900.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0914.2920.64-0.10-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0826.9228.60-0.05-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0843.4850.64-0.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0829.1726.69-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.140.0843.4844.90-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0852.1753.440.000.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0858.3356.290.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0883.3378.380.060.05
Penn St.B100.090.0850.0046.770.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0819.0525.90-0.05-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0868.0064.090.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0837.5042.32-0.02-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.0821.7424.60-0.08-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0850.0049.480.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0834.7833.02-0.01-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0826.3232.40-0.02-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0873.0872.610.020.04
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0873.9176.700.020.04
GeorgetownBE0.090.0856.0052.870.010.00
AkronMAC0.090.0882.6181.140.060.05
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.400.010.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0862.5064.120.010.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0820.0019.73-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.090.0870.8369.000.040.03
DukeACC0.130.0875.0071.840.070.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0875.0072.610.040.04
TCUB120.130.0845.8339.36-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.0883.3379.820.080.05
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0858.3359.970.010.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0841.6739.90-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.130.0879.1778.100.080.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0845.4546.08-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.040.0887.5081.850.030.05
DePaulBE0.090.0833.3334.02-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0866.6763.300.030.02
NebraskaB100.130.0852.0050.760.010.00
Seton HallBE0.130.0870.8368.080.050.03
BucknellPat0.110.0652.1754.940.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0659.0961.280.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.110.0682.6183.010.070.04
ElonCAA0.050.0650.0050.070.000.00
MaineAE0.100.0632.0031.16-0.04-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0648.0048.60-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0677.2773.930.050.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0668.1871.350.040.02
LibertyBSth0.100.0634.7836.53-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.100.0664.0064.460.030.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0666.6764.780.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0633.3335.18-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.090.0645.8348.12-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.040.0566.6767.110.010.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0586.9680.420.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0531.8236.11-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0552.1751.830.000.00
UMBCAE0.040.0523.0825.87-0.02-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0580.0081.560.050.03
MissouriSEC0.040.0533.3330.28-0.01-0.02
NorthwesternB100.090.0564.0062.090.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0556.0056.510.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0550.0045.770.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.040.0512.0011.95-0.03-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0029.89-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0570.8370.130.040.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0520.8323.28-0.05-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0541.6739.49-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0540.0043.39-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0572.0073.080.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0565.2260.600.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0545.8343.78-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0558.3359.310.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0537.5037.41-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0560.8762.080.020.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0566.6764.700.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0560.8755.980.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0550.0052.940.000.00
HartfordAE0.040.0524.0024.55-0.02-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0570.8367.970.040.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0579.1775.990.020.03
WisconsinB100.090.0562.5057.000.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0521.7422.75-0.05-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0559.0955.160.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0541.6739.59-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.040.0562.5059.080.010.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0521.7424.25-0.02-0.03
MarquetteBE0.040.0564.0057.890.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0550.0051.110.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0568.1867.730.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0531.8232.46-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0545.8342.30-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0580.0077.910.050.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0534.7834.97-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0552.1754.100.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0527.2728.16-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0550.0048.130.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0582.6183.030.060.03
LipscombASun0.060.0328.0030.49-0.03-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0362.5060.140.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0354.5555.550.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0357.1459.870.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0331.8234.54-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.23-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0336.8442.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0383.3383.710.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0356.0054.430.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.039.5210.67-0.03-0.02
IowaB100.000.0379.1778.880.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0360.8762.470.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0320.0022.25-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.89-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0358.3360.900.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0323.8125.49-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0369.5770.090.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0316.6719.49-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0373.9174.640.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0313.0415.26-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0340.0043.49-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0322.7327.39-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0050.500.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0368.1865.170.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0336.0034.84-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.520.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.30-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.780.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0354.1754.290.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.45-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0355.0053.670.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.13-0.03-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0372.7370.520.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.77-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0370.8367.930.020.01
OklahomaB120.040.0386.9682.620.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.34-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.040.0347.6244.06-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.340.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0354.1754.200.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.0412.96-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.040.0360.8762.520.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0354.1753.810.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01