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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:126.8
Current RPI:74
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:5
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-934.20.08%
20-1044.30.17%
19-1149.21.09%
18-1261.22.46%
17-1373.65.31%
16-1487.19.43%
15-15101.715.05%
14-16117.618.09%
13-17134.616.94%
12-18151.914.21%
11-19169.99.39%
10-20190.04.62%
9-21208.82.28%
8-22230.70.68%
7-23246.80.16%
6-24267.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Toledo (172.5)MACH77-76W100%0.0
11-14Columbia (246.3)IvyH85-65W100%0.0
11-18Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCN71-57W100%0.0
11-20Mississippi (121.1)SECN81-68L0%0.0
11-21North Carolina St. (110.5)ACCN73-63L0%0.0
11-30Temple (51.5)AmerH72-78L0%0.0
12-3Villanova (5.1)BEA88-57L0%0.0
12-11Drexel (217.5)CAAA0-061%3.4
12-14Princeton (110.3)IvyA0-034%-5.0
12-18Illinois St. (64.6)MVCA0-021%-9.8
12-22Lafayette (276.3)PatH0-089%14.4
12-30George Washington (187.8)A10H0-069%6.0
1-3Rhode Island (34.2)A10A0-016%-12.2
1-7Fordham (219.4)A10A0-052%0.6
1-10George Mason (191.5)A10H0-072%7.0
1-14Richmond (173.6)A10H0-062%3.6
1-18Massachusetts (109.7)A10A0-035%-4.6
1-21Penn (143.8)IvyA0-040%-3.1
1-24St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10A0-022%-9.1
1-28La Salle (90.1)A10H0-052%0.5
1-31Davidson (68.7)A10H0-042%-2.3
2-4Fordham (219.4)A10H0-072%6.8
2-7Dayton (38.8)A10A0-014%-13.0
2-11Massachusetts (109.7)A10H0-056%1.7
2-14VCU (43.9)A10A0-018%-11.1
2-18La Salle (90.1)A10A0-032%-5.7
2-22St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10H0-041%-2.8
2-25Saint Louis (286.5)A10A0-074%7.8
3-1Rhode Island (34.2)A10H0-031%-5.9
3-4Duquesne (244.3)A10A0-058%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1028.2026.1235.4845.59-8.19-2.31
La SalleA100.844.0857.1456.400.120.52
MassachusettsA100.894.0371.4358.410.380.68
Rhode IslandA100.003.9466.6769.950.001.57
FordhamA100.003.9250.0041.880.00-0.64
St. BonaventureA100.003.9175.0070.490.001.60
Saint LouisA100.002.3325.0023.93-0.00-1.22
DuquesneA100.002.3340.0039.08-0.00-0.51
George MasonA100.002.3362.5047.130.00-0.13
DavidsonA100.002.3371.4363.180.000.61
DaytonA100.002.3371.4372.820.001.06
VCUA100.002.3175.0072.620.001.04
George WashingtonA100.002.3055.5642.530.00-0.34
RichmondA100.002.3050.0048.850.00-0.05
PennIvy0.841.9933.3356.52-0.280.26
TempleAmer7.141.8671.4363.643.060.51
PrincetonIvy0.001.8520.0059.75-0.000.36
VillanovaBE7.141.81100.0084.237.141.24
ColumbiaIvy7.141.7950.0045.530.00-0.16
DrexelCAA0.001.7850.0041.550.00-0.30
LafayettePat0.401.7842.8636.28-0.06-0.49
Loyola ChicagoMVC7.591.7883.3360.935.060.39
Illinois St.MVC0.001.7260.0067.380.000.60
MississippiSEC7.141.7271.4346.263.06-0.13
North Carolina St.ACC7.651.7071.4349.353.28-0.02
ToledoMAC7.141.7042.8649.21-1.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.3333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.2550.0043.770.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.250.0020.72-0.00-0.14
CornellIvy0.000.2228.5730.43-0.00-0.09
YaleIvy0.000.2242.8663.63-0.000.06
UCFAmer0.400.1985.7175.800.280.10
BucknellPat0.000.1870.0070.530.000.07
BradleyMVC0.000.1737.5025.74-0.00-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.000.1737.5047.44-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1657.1450.790.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1677.7859.940.000.03
LehighPat0.000.1537.5061.81-0.000.04
ArmyPat0.510.1542.8650.29-0.070.00
EvansvilleMVC0.450.1550.0045.130.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1533.3352.49-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1557.1449.420.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1577.7886.650.000.11
Miami FLACC0.000.1477.7866.740.000.05
HofstraCAA0.510.1455.5643.870.06-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.1483.3377.290.300.08
St. John'sBE0.000.1444.4436.20-0.00-0.04
NavyPat0.000.1233.3338.56-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0020.21-0.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1242.8650.98-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
ColgatePat0.510.1212.5030.11-0.38-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1142.8647.68-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1128.5727.38-0.00-0.05
DelawareCAA0.000.1150.0041.700.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1155.5647.600.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.400.1166.6761.690.130.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1175.0058.720.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.1112.5030.17-0.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3346.06-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1175.0075.180.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1162.5066.500.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1187.5082.440.000.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.340.1187.5075.731.000.06
Wake ForestACC0.400.1177.7855.180.220.01
CreightonBE0.890.11100.0076.540.890.06
AmericanPat0.000.0912.5028.64-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.450.0942.8655.07-0.060.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0942.8645.85-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.510.0975.0054.480.260.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0045.49-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0944.4438.15-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0957.1450.860.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.450.0875.0055.480.220.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0883.3379.920.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.960.080.0022.75-0.96-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.03-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0857.1454.200.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0825.0035.75-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0887.5050.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0842.8653.80-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.740.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0862.5044.840.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0887.5081.910.000.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0850.0050.170.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0837.5044.42-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0890.0080.060.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0877.7872.930.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0822.2232.01-0.25-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0833.3350.05-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3340.37-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.400.0816.6735.90-0.26-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.170.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0871.4337.680.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.450.0888.8967.470.350.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.370.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.450.0875.0056.270.220.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.63-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1433.200.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0677.7872.210.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.510.0628.5737.54-0.22-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0628.5746.79-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0662.5055.890.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0060.950.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.700.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.380.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.450.0612.5026.05-0.33-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.44-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.450.0662.5052.060.110.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.340.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.99-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.60-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.51-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.760.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0580.0054.190.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0585.7157.280.000.01
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.070.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.05100.0074.830.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0542.8644.90-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0570.0050.010.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1451.810.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0061.350.000.01
IllinoisB100.450.0566.6751.140.150.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0030.02-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.220.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4347.690.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0577.7864.250.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0047.520.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.890.0525.0048.70-0.45-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0048.980.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.650.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.180.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.700.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0520.0035.15-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0588.8978.430.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.500.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.880.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8660.66-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0314.2923.40-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.510.0337.5043.19-0.13-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0362.5070.890.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0333.3351.57-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.510.030.0032.29-0.51-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.510.030.0036.38-0.51-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.510.0360.0069.260.100.01
Washington St.P120.510.0342.8629.20-0.07-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.450.0337.5048.85-0.11-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0337.5044.87-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0362.5053.550.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0312.5033.18-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.450.0337.5038.08-0.11-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.08-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.07-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.450.0342.8643.55-0.06-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.450.0362.5062.120.110.01
PurdueB100.400.0377.7877.640.220.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
West VirginiaB120.450.0385.7183.250.320.02