Saint Joseph's

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	82.0
Current RPI:	82
Expected SOS:	89
Current SOS:	89
Current Record:	18-13
Expected Record:	18-13
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	67
Expected OOC SOS:	128

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	82.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	61-35	W	100%
11-16	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	N	70-79	W	100%
11-17	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	N	66-73	L	0%
11-20	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	75-56	W	100%
11-28	American (278.0)	Pat	H	74-55	W	100%
12-1	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	80-51	L	0%
12-4	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	A	55-67	W	100%
12-11	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	65-61	L	0%
12-22	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	57-60	L	0%
12-28	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	96-91	W	100%
12-31	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	49-63	W	100%
1-5	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	60-70	W	100%
1-9	Butler (22.0)	A10	H	66-72	L	0%
1-12	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	A	66-74	W	100%
1-17	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	92-86	L	0%
1-19	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	79-59	W	100%
1-23	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	H	64-73	L	0%
1-26	Xavier (87.0)	A10	H	59-49	W	100%
1-30	Fordham (228.0)	A10	A	62-66	W	100%
2-2	Temple (42.0)	A10	H	70-69	W	100%
2-6	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	60-54	L	0%
2-9	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	A	80-62	L	0%
2-13	Richmond (92.0)	A10	H	61-55	W	100%
2-16	La Salle (46.0)	A10	A	76-64	L	0%
2-23	George Washington (147.0)	A10	H	71-59	W	100%
2-27	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	70-53	L	0%
3-2	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	82-56	W	100%
3-6	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	H	81-44	W	100%
3-9	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	52-40	L	0%
3-14	Xavier (87.0)	A10	N	57-58	W	100%
3-15	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	N	82-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Saint Joseph's	A10	25.95	25.95	58.65	58.65	4.49	4.49
Fordham	A10	3.72	3.72	24.14	24.14	-1.92	-1.92
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	3.72	3.72	75.00	75.00	1.86	1.86
Xavier	A10	3.71	3.71	58.62	58.62	0.64	0.64
Butler	A10	2.23	2.23	75.00	75.00	1.12	1.12
Massachusetts	A10	2.21	2.21	64.52	64.52	0.64	0.64
La Salle	A10	2.18	2.18	68.97	68.97	0.83	0.83
St. Louis	A10	2.17	2.17	81.25	81.25	1.36	1.36
Temple	A10	2.15	2.15	74.19	74.19	1.04	1.04
Charlotte	A10	2.15	2.15	64.52	64.52	0.62	0.62
Dayton	A10	2.13	2.13	53.33	53.33	0.14	0.14
George Washington	A10	2.13	2.13	44.83	44.83	-0.22	-0.22
Richmond	A10	2.12	2.12	58.06	58.06	0.34	0.34
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.10	2.10	46.43	46.43	-0.15	-0.15
Duquesne	A10	2.08	2.08	27.59	27.59	-0.93	-0.93
Rhode Island	A10	2.07	2.07	28.57	28.57	-0.89	-0.89
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.93	1.93	30.00	30.00	-0.77	-0.77
Harvard	Ivy	1.80	1.80	69.23	69.23	0.69	0.69
Fairfield	MAAC	1.77	1.77	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Yale	Ivy	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Iona	MAAC	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
Villanova	BE	1.71	1.71	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Drexel	CAA	1.71	1.71	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Notre Dame	BE	1.66	1.66	75.76	75.76	0.86	0.86
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
Florida St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
American	Pat	1.61	1.61	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
Creighton	MVC	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Manhattan	MAAC	0.28	0.28	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.25	0.25	59.26	59.26	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.23	0.23	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.22	0.22	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Brown	Ivy	0.22	0.22	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.12	-0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.17	0.17	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	7.14	7.14	-0.11	-0.11
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01