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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:53
Current SOS:53
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-932.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Vermont (101.0)AEA64-74W100%0.0
11-13Marist (250.0)MAACH81-62W100%0.0
11-16Creighton (10.0)BEH79-83L0%0.0
11-28LSU (83.0)SECN65-82L0%0.0
11-29Siena (193.0)MAACN78-66W100%0.0
12-1Washington St. (224.0)P12N72-67W100%0.0
12-4Temple (175.0)AmerA77-69L0%0.0
12-7Villanova (5.0)BEH68-98L0%0.0
12-18Drexel (132.0)CAAH75-55W100%0.0
12-21Loyola MD (274.0)PatA77-88W100%0.0
12-29Boston University (84.0)PatH73-67W100%0.0
12-31Binghamton (325.0)AEH71-44W100%0.0
1-4Denver (139.0)SumH53-52W100%0.0
1-8Massachusetts (23.0)A10A66-62L0%0.0
1-11George Mason (164.0)A10A80-84W100%0.0
1-15Duquesne (187.0)A10H84-75W100%0.0
1-18Penn (284.0)IvyA68-85W100%0.0
1-22Rhode Island (155.0)A10H61-57W100%0.0
1-25Richmond (75.0)A10A77-62L0%0.0
1-29Dayton (43.0)A10A57-60W100%0.0
2-1Massachusetts (23.0)A10H73-68W100%0.0
2-5Saint Louis (27.0)A10H49-65L0%0.0
2-8VCU (13.0)A10H69-62W100%0.0
2-15La Salle (98.0)A10A64-75W100%0.0
2-19Rhode Island (155.0)A10A54-57W100%0.0
2-22Fordham (226.0)A10H87-72W100%0.0
2-25Dayton (43.0)A10H79-53W100%0.0
3-1St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A74-83W100%0.0
3-5George Washington (29.0)A10A76-71L0%0.0
3-9La Salle (98.0)A10H63-71L0%0.0
3-14Dayton (43.0)A10N70-67W100%0.0
3-15St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10N67-48W100%0.0
3-16VCU (13.0)A10N61-65W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.1726.1771.7071.7011.3611.36
DaytonA105.055.0576.6776.672.692.69
St. BonaventureA103.683.6856.6756.670.490.49
La SalleA103.683.6848.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Rhode IslandA103.673.6744.8344.83-0.38-0.38
MassachusettsA103.653.6576.6776.671.951.95
VCUA103.583.5881.2581.252.242.24
George WashingtonA102.222.2274.1974.191.081.08
RichmondA102.202.2056.2556.250.280.28
FordhamA102.202.2033.3333.33-0.73-0.73
George MasonA102.162.1636.6736.67-0.58-0.58
Saint LouisA102.152.1580.0080.001.291.29
DuquesneA102.112.1142.8642.86-0.30-0.30
SienaMAAC1.711.7148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE1.661.6687.1087.101.231.23
PennIvy1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
TempleAmer1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
LSUSEC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
BinghamtonAE1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5972.7372.730.720.72
MaristMAAC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
VermontAE1.591.5968.9768.970.600.60
CreightonBE1.591.5978.1278.120.890.89
Loyola MDPat1.581.5835.7135.71-0.45-0.45
DenverSum1.521.5251.7251.720.050.05
DrexelCAA1.521.5255.1755.170.160.16
Washington St.P121.521.5231.0331.03-0.57-0.57
ProvidenceBE0.310.3167.6567.650.110.11
UMass LowellAE0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Stony BrookAE0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
IonaMAAC0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
New HampshireAE0.200.2017.2417.24-0.13-0.13
LafayettePat0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2021.2121.21-0.11-0.11
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
QuinnipiacMAAC0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
UMBCAE0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.16-0.16
AlbanyAE0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
HartfordAE0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
MaineAE0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.150.1586.2186.210.110.11
WagnerNEC0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
RiderMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
ButlerBE0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
BrownIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
ArmyPat0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
Penn St.B100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ElonSC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0482.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00