live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:57
Current Record:27-7
Expected Record:27-7
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-722.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Drexel (247.0)CAAH82-81W100%0.0
11-15Niagara (315.0)MAACH73-62W100%0.0
11-18Buffalo (90.0)MACH89-67W100%0.0
11-21Florida (55.0)SECN63-74L0%0.0
11-22Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN66-64W100%0.0
12-1Villanova (4.0)BEH72-86L0%0.0
12-4Columbia (132.0)IvyA78-80W100%0.0
12-8Princeton (39.0)IvyH62-50W100%0.0
12-13Temple (60.0)AmerA65-66W100%0.0
12-19Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH79-65W100%0.0
12-22Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCN62-79W100%0.0
12-29Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH78-68W100%0.0
1-2Richmond (121.0)A10A73-77W100%0.0
1-5VCU (37.0)A10H82-85L0%0.0
1-10Rhode Island (119.0)A10H72-67W100%0.0
1-13George Mason (201.0)A10A73-87W100%0.0
1-16Fordham (176.0)A10H80-55W100%0.0
1-20Penn (283.0)IvyN60-75W100%0.0
1-24La Salle (232.0)A10A48-69W100%0.0
1-27Massachusetts (171.0)A10H78-70W100%0.0
1-30Rhode Island (119.0)A10A55-64W100%0.0
2-3St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H73-83L0%0.0
2-6Fordham (176.0)A10A60-82W100%0.0
2-10George Washington (68.0)A10A66-84W100%0.0
2-13La Salle (232.0)A10H88-62W100%0.0
2-17Dayton (21.0)A10H79-70W100%0.0
2-20Davidson (64.0)A10A99-93L0%0.0
2-24Massachusetts (171.0)A10A57-74W100%0.0
2-28Saint Louis (206.0)A10H77-63W100%0.0
3-2St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10N98-90L0%0.0
3-5Duquesne (162.0)A10H70-78L0%0.0
3-11George Washington (68.0)A10N86-80W100%0.0
3-12Dayton (21.0)A10N79-82W100%0.0
3-13VCU (37.0)A10N74-87W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.1726.1775.8875.8813.5513.55
La SalleA103.723.7228.5728.57-1.59-1.59
MassachusettsA103.673.6746.6746.67-0.24-0.24
Rhode IslandA103.643.6456.6756.670.490.49
VCUA103.643.6471.8871.881.591.59
DaytonA103.603.6083.3383.332.402.40
St. BonaventureA103.593.5971.4371.431.541.54
FordhamA103.573.5759.2659.260.660.66
George WashingtonA103.553.5574.1974.191.721.72
RichmondA102.262.2651.6151.610.070.07
DavidsonA102.242.2460.0060.000.450.45
Saint LouisA102.192.1935.4835.48-0.64-0.64
DuquesneA102.172.1746.6746.67-0.14-0.14
George MasonA102.152.1535.4835.48-0.62-0.62
PennIvy1.721.7238.4638.46-0.40-0.40
Old DominionCUSA1.651.6564.7164.710.490.49
ColumbiaIvy1.601.6067.8667.860.570.57
BuffaloMAC1.581.5859.3859.380.300.30
PrincetonIvy1.581.5880.7780.770.970.97
VillanovaBE1.571.5784.8584.851.091.09
TempleAmer1.571.5767.7467.740.560.56
DrexelCAA1.551.5520.6920.69-0.91-0.91
NiagaraMAAC1.541.5422.5822.58-0.84-0.84
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
FloridaSEC1.491.4956.2556.250.190.19
Illinois St.MVC1.471.4756.6756.670.200.20
Virginia TechACC1.471.4759.3859.380.280.28
BrownIvy0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
HarvardIvy0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
RiderMAAC0.170.1739.3939.39-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
UCFAmer0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
LafayettePat0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
VirginiaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TowsonCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
St. John'sBE0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
PittsburghACC0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Seton HallBE0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0443.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
RutgersB100.040.0419.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
ToledoMAC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0222.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02