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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:196.2
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:106
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1180.50.04%
18-1291.00.22%
17-13105.60.93%
16-14123.02.50%
15-15140.16.36%
14-16157.811.69%
13-17176.517.36%
12-18196.219.96%
11-19214.818.02%
10-20233.312.80%
9-21251.46.86%
8-22269.42.52%
7-23283.70.63%
6-24297.00.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Fairleigh Dickinson (259.1)NECH57-58L0%0.0
11-17Drexel (224.2)CAAA49-52W100%0.0
11-19Gonzaga (12.3)WCCA94-42L0%0.0
11-22Vermont (165.7)AEH68-60W100%0.0
11-25LIU Brooklyn (256.9)NECH74-70W100%0.0
11-27Western Kentucky (153.8)CUSAN59-62L0%0.0
12-3Temple (119.2)AmerH58-56W100%0.0
12-6Villanova (16.8)BEA74-46L0%0.0
12-9Loyola MD (298.3)PatH68-42W100%0.0
12-20Marist (330.3)MAACA0-062%3.5
12-29Denver (189.8)SumA0-028%-7.0
1-3George Washington (74.0)A10H0-027%-7.3
1-7Duquesne (215.3)A10A0-031%-5.8
1-10VCU (27.3)A10A0-06%-18.4
1-14Fordham (261.7)A10H0-075%7.8
1-18St. Bonaventure (104.3)A10A0-014%-12.5
1-21Massachusetts (90.0)A10H0-039%-3.3
1-24Penn (276.5)IvyA0-041%-2.7
1-27La Salle (124.5)A10A0-019%-10.5
1-31Davidson (31.0)A10H0-016%-11.6
2-3Saint Louis (272.2)A10A0-052%0.7
2-7George Mason (224.4)A10H0-067%5.3
2-11Rhode Island (65.3)A10H0-021%-9.4
2-15Fordham (261.7)A10A0-046%-1.2
2-19Dayton (73.0)A10A0-011%-14.6
2-21St. Bonaventure (104.3)A10H0-038%-3.6
2-25Massachusetts (90.0)A10A0-015%-12.2
2-28Richmond (92.2)A10H0-036%-4.3
3-4La Salle (124.5)A10H0-045%-1.5
3-7Rhode Island (65.3)A10A0-06%-18.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1027.9326.1451.3539.440.75-5.52
La SalleA100.904.1050.0048.660.00-0.11
MassachusettsA100.004.0260.0053.840.000.31
FordhamA100.003.9828.5726.79-0.00-1.85
Rhode IslandA100.003.9862.5071.720.001.73
St. BonaventureA100.003.9275.0063.980.001.10
DaytonA100.002.3877.7868.900.000.90
Saint LouisA100.002.3555.5631.070.00-0.89
RichmondA100.002.3250.0055.920.000.28
VCUA100.282.3270.0070.350.110.94
DuquesneA100.002.3233.3337.74-0.00-0.57
George WashingtonA100.002.2966.6766.640.000.76
George MasonA100.002.2925.0025.69-0.00-1.11
DavidsonA100.002.2987.5076.650.001.22
TempleAmer6.181.8166.6755.852.060.21
VillanovaBE5.831.80100.0081.685.831.14
PennIvy0.281.8037.5031.40-0.07-0.67
LIU BrooklynNEC5.831.7528.5741.66-2.50-0.29
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.561.7216.6738.90-3.70-0.38
DrexelCAA5.561.7228.5738.68-2.38-0.39
MaristMAAC0.001.7010.0017.92-0.00-1.09
VermontAE5.561.6957.1462.260.790.42
DenverSum0.001.6744.4454.45-0.000.15
GonzagaWCC5.561.6788.8990.714.321.36
Loyola MDPat5.561.6737.5027.76-1.39-0.74
Western KentuckyCUSA5.561.6742.8647.34-0.79-0.09
SienaMAAC0.660.2837.5051.38-0.160.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.2155.5654.360.000.02
DelawareCAA0.280.200.008.21-0.28-0.17
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.2041.6743.24-0.05-0.03
St. John'sBE1.020.2087.5064.670.770.06
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2025.0037.01-0.00-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.350.2050.0061.890.000.05
WagnerNEC0.350.1814.2933.61-0.25-0.06
BryantNEC0.350.1828.5746.92-0.15-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1714.2932.16-0.00-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1725.0047.42-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.280.1766.6751.390.090.00
IonaMAAC0.000.1766.6772.270.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1772.7352.480.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1590.9154.340.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.1544.4447.41-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.150.0011.93-0.00-0.11
CornellIvy0.660.1555.5648.540.07-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1533.3343.11-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1542.8655.87-0.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.690.1537.5054.91-0.170.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.310.1537.5037.71-0.08-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1444.4456.62-0.000.02
HarvardIvy0.350.1485.7173.700.250.07
HofstraCAA0.000.1477.7877.550.000.08
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1487.5080.890.000.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1475.0061.240.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0086.080.000.10
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1436.3647.60-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.1437.5046.01-0.09-0.01
AmericanPat0.280.1460.0065.090.060.04
BrownIvy0.000.1240.0034.21-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.350.1250.0032.740.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1255.5665.940.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1250.0045.540.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.710.1262.5064.640.180.03
PrincetonIvy0.400.1227.2737.98-0.18-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1222.2230.95-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.400.1275.0069.750.200.05
New HampshireAE0.350.1257.1464.630.050.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1250.0057.760.000.02
UMBCAE0.310.1210.0021.35-0.25-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1233.3340.42-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1233.3343.17-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1250.0041.450.00-0.02
LehighPat0.620.1142.8651.80-0.090.00
BucknellPat0.280.1140.0036.16-0.06-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1175.0060.540.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0042.53-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1190.0079.360.000.07
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1166.6741.850.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.1166.6767.890.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0940.0058.50-0.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0970.0064.560.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0054.480.000.01
MaineAE0.350.0911.1121.00-0.27-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5048.77-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.200.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.350.0975.0069.770.170.03
NavyPat0.000.0920.0021.16-0.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0962.5053.840.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6753.260.000.01
KansasB120.000.0988.8969.900.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1456.250.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.020.00-0.02
NJITind0.350.0936.3641.92-0.09-0.01
BelmontOVC0.350.0960.0062.380.070.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0945.4551.71-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0977.7869.100.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3342.09-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0957.1454.620.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0928.5726.77-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.0820.0026.66-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4440.58-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0871.4356.890.000.01
Notre DameACC0.400.0890.9171.250.320.04
UCFAmer0.000.0850.0030.140.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.310.0880.0072.430.190.04
DePaulBE0.000.0866.6739.030.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0888.8964.060.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0871.4360.450.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0857.1456.000.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0875.0070.980.000.03
SMUAmer0.280.0866.6770.530.090.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0875.0065.380.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.50-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0051.980.000.00
HartfordAE0.350.0650.0050.920.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.94-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.920.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6742.930.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0622.2236.43-0.00-0.02
USCP120.350.0660.0037.100.07-0.02
RutgersB100.400.0660.0035.390.08-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.350.0675.0066.870.170.02
MississippiSEC0.350.0666.6751.450.120.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1452.850.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.130.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5051.76-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.150.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.67-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0040.86-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.71-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0670.0066.510.110.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.85-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.310.0666.6757.080.100.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0628.5722.66-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.51-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0675.0049.190.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.870.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.60-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0550.0059.030.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.370.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5037.27-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0544.4433.13-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0577.7861.940.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0555.5647.220.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0550.0048.280.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0555.5657.230.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0580.0071.140.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0320.0026.45-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.350.0322.2231.80-0.19-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0314.2944.11-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.350.0366.6757.220.120.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
Miami FLACC0.350.0390.0075.840.280.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.49-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.350.0377.7864.850.190.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0050.98-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.350.0350.0058.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.650.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.73-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6725.01-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.150.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8635.74-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.640.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.53-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0011.08-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0316.6733.31-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0322.2227.64-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.510.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0039.09-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7868.030.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0371.4361.160.000.01
Texas TechB120.310.0387.5047.890.23-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0067.550.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.060.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.02-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.280.03100.0080.930.280.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.340.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3332.44-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0383.3366.520.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0028.54-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0362.5059.380.070.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0020.84-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0357.1447.630.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.0342.8643.01-0.04-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.06-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0311.1143.47-0.22-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0050.220.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7866.040.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0311.1145.10-0.22-0.00
UCLAP120.280.0372.7357.470.130.00
Washington St.P120.280.0340.0028.86-0.06-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.930.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.43-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.280.03100.0087.520.280.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5055.430.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3358.570.000.00
IllinoisB100.280.0370.0066.410.110.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
MichiganB100.280.0355.5642.720.03-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0380.0063.530.000.01
OregonP120.000.0362.5057.800.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0054.960.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.43-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
UNLVMWC0.280.0371.4350.790.120.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0037.860.00-0.01