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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:69.0
Current RPI:69
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1369.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Western Kentucky (189.0)SBA61-72W100%0.0
11-17Georgia Tech (197.0)ACCN66-53W100%0.0
11-18Seton Hall (68.0)BEN78-70L0%0.0
11-20Tulsa (120.0)CUSAN79-75W100%0.0
11-23Iona (40.0)MAACA104-99L0%0.0
11-26Penn St. (161.0)B10H65-47W100%0.0
11-30Drexel (64.0)CAAH62-49W100%0.0
12-4American (142.0)PatA66-60L0%0.0
12-7Boston University (190.0)AEH75-68W100%0.0
12-10Creighton (24.0)MVCH80-71W100%0.0
12-17Villanova (121.0)BEH74-58W100%0.0
12-21Coppin St. (276.0)MEACH81-72W100%0.0
12-28Morgan St. (286.0)MEACH81-50W100%0.0
12-31Harvard (35.0)IvyA74-69L0%0.0
1-4Duquesne (109.0)A10A82-84W100%0.0
1-7Charlotte (167.0)A10H52-57L0%0.0
1-11Fordham (240.0)A10H80-62W100%0.0
1-14Massachusetts (76.0)A10A71-62L0%0.0
1-18Xavier (41.0)A10A68-55L0%0.0
1-21Pennsylvania (98.0)IvyA84-80L0%0.0
1-25Dayton (81.0)A10H77-63W100%0.0
1-28Temple (19.0)A10A78-60L0%0.0
2-1Richmond (127.0)A10A60-70W100%0.0
2-4La Salle (90.0)A10H70-66W100%0.0
2-8St. Louis (31.0)A10H60-72L0%0.0
2-11Massachusetts (76.0)A10H73-62W100%0.0
2-15Rhode Island (257.0)A10A69-80W100%0.0
2-18George Washington (188.0)A10A66-73W100%0.0
2-22Richmond (127.0)A10H49-52L0%0.0
2-25Temple (19.0)A10H82-72W100%0.0
2-29St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10A98-93L0%0.0
3-6Charlotte (167.0)A10H80-64W100%0.0
3-9St. Bonaventure (72.0)A10N71-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.0426.0460.4360.435.435.43
MassachusettsA103.593.5967.7467.741.271.27
RichmondA103.563.5650.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA103.563.5662.0762.070.860.86
TempleA103.563.5679.3179.312.092.09
CharlotteA103.543.5442.8642.86-0.51-0.51
La SalleA102.192.1965.6265.620.680.68
XavierA102.152.1562.5062.500.540.54
FordhamA102.102.1035.7135.71-0.60-0.60
George WashingtonA102.102.1033.3333.33-0.70-0.70
DuquesneA102.092.0951.7251.720.070.07
Rhode IslandA102.072.0723.3323.33-1.10-1.10
DaytonA102.072.0764.5264.520.600.60
St. LouisA102.072.0776.6776.671.101.10
VillanovaBE1.711.7141.9441.94-0.28-0.28
PennsylvaniaIvy1.661.6660.0060.000.330.33
HarvardIvy1.641.6485.7185.711.171.17
Coppin St.MEAC1.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Boston UniversityAE1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC1.601.6032.1432.14-0.57-0.57
AmericanPat1.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
IonaMAAC1.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
Seton HallBE1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
TulsaCUSA1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
Georgia TechACC1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
Penn St.B101.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
CreightonMVC1.541.5487.5087.501.151.15
Western KentuckySB1.541.5446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
DrexelCAA1.521.5284.3884.381.041.04
HamptonMEAC0.230.2336.3636.36-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.220.2240.7440.74-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.220.2229.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.210.2182.3582.350.140.14
SienaMAAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
PurdueB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
DavidsonSC0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
BrownIvy0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.150.1565.3865.380.050.05
IllinoisB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
TowsonCAA0.140.143.123.12-0.13-0.13
Wake ForestACC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
NorthwesternB100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
RutgersBE0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutBE0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
VermontAE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
MarylandACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
LafayettePat0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1283.8783.870.080.08
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South FloridaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1231.2531.25-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
HartfordAE0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.120.1216.1316.13-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
SyracuseBE0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
MemphisCUSA0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
RiceCUSA0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.106.456.45-0.08-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
CincinnatiBE0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.090.0974.2974.290.050.05
BradleyMVC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
ColgatePat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0796.4396.430.070.07
George MasonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MercerASun0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UtahP120.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
MaineAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.070.0716.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.CAA0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
DenverSB0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
North TexasSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TroySB0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Seattleind0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Longwoodind0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MissouriB120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
NevadaWAC0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0281.8281.820.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01