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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Saint Joseph's

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:104
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH57-58L0%0.0
11-17Drexel (243.0)CAAA49-52W100%0.0
11-19Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA94-42L0%0.0
11-22Vermont (203.0)AEH68-60W100%0.0
11-25LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH74-70W100%0.0
11-27Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAN59-62L0%0.0
12-3Temple (34.0)AmerH58-56W100%0.0
12-6Villanova (3.0)BEA74-46L0%0.0
12-9Loyola MD (270.0)PatH68-42W100%0.0
12-20Marist (317.0)MAACA58-75W100%0.0
12-29Denver (232.0)SumA77-73L0%0.0
1-3George Washington (84.0)A10H60-64L0%0.0
1-7Duquesne (222.0)A10A71-68L0%0.0
1-10VCU (15.0)A10A89-74L0%0.0
1-14Fordham (238.0)A10H66-55W100%0.0
1-18St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10A70-61L0%0.0
1-21Massachusetts (80.0)A10H62-56W100%0.0
1-24Penn (254.0)IvyH52-56L0%0.0
1-27La Salle (101.0)A10A53-48L0%0.0
1-31Davidson (35.0)A10H75-70W100%0.0
2-3Saint Louis (272.0)A10A68-61L0%0.0
2-7George Mason (221.0)A10H58-54W100%0.0
2-11Rhode Island (66.0)A10H65-64W100%0.0
2-15Fordham (238.0)A10A69-55L0%0.0
2-19Dayton (32.0)A10A68-64L0%0.0
2-21St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H60-70L0%0.0
2-25Massachusetts (80.0)A10A71-82W100%0.0
2-28Richmond (56.0)A10H57-63L0%0.0
3-4La Salle (101.0)A10H55-50W100%0.0
3-7Rhode Island (66.0)A10A78-68L0%0.0
3-12St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10N60-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint Joseph'sA1026.1726.1739.5339.53-5.48-5.48
St. BonaventureA105.405.4053.5753.570.390.39
La SalleA104.034.0351.6151.610.130.13
MassachusettsA103.953.9556.6756.670.530.53
Rhode IslandA103.893.8971.4371.431.671.67
FordhamA103.893.8928.5728.57-1.67-1.67
DaytonA102.472.4775.0075.001.231.23
VCUA102.362.3673.5373.531.111.11
DuquesneA102.302.3034.4834.48-0.72-0.72
George WashingtonA102.292.2962.5062.500.570.57
Saint LouisA102.282.2830.0030.00-0.91-0.91
RichmondA102.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
DavidsonA102.272.2779.3179.311.331.33
George MasonA102.252.2527.5927.59-1.01-1.01
TempleAmer1.741.7471.8871.880.760.76
VillanovaBE1.741.7493.9493.941.531.53
PennIvy1.741.7429.6329.63-0.71-0.71
LIU BrooklynNEC1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
DrexelCAA1.661.6639.2939.29-0.36-0.36
MaristMAAC1.641.6422.5822.58-0.90-0.90
VermontAE1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
DenverSum1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
GonzagaWCC1.611.6193.7593.751.411.41
Loyola MDPat1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Western KentuckyCUSA1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
SienaMAAC0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
DelawareCAA0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
St. John'sBE0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
WagnerNEC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
TowsonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.130.1374.0774.070.060.06
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Penn St.B100.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
UMBCAE0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
BYUWCC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
BrownIvy0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.08-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
NavyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
RiderMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00