Rhode Island

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	257.0
Current RPI:	257
Expected SOS:	107
Current SOS:	107
Current Record:	7-24
Expected Record:	7-24
Current Conf Record:	4-12
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-3
Current OOC Record:	3-12
Expected OOC Record:	3-12
Expected OOC RPI:	289
Expected OOC SOS:	196

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-24	257.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	George Mason (82.0)	CAA	A	92-90	L	0%
11-15	Texas (50.0)	B12	A	100-90	L	0%
11-20	Nebraska (154.0)	B10	A	83-63	L	0%
11-25	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	85-73	W	100%
11-26	Boston University (190.0)	AE	H	64-70	L	0%
11-27	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	H	45-67	L	0%
11-30	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	65-56	L	0%
12-4	Maine (282.0)	AE	H	74-76	L	0%
12-7	Virginia Tech (116.0)	ACC	H	67-78	L	0%
12-10	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	96-64	L	0%
12-18	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	H	65-68	L	0%
12-23	Providence (156.0)	BE	H	61-80	L	0%
12-29	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	N	79-60	W	100%
12-30	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	65-54	L	0%
1-2	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	A	72-78	W	100%
1-7	Richmond (127.0)	A10	H	53-70	L	0%
1-11	George Washington (188.0)	A10	A	69-61	L	0%
1-14	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	H	71-78	L	0%
1-18	Fordham (240.0)	A10	A	66-64	L	0%
1-21	La Salle (90.0)	A10	A	80-66	L	0%
1-25	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	H	66-72	L	0%
1-28	Dayton (81.0)	A10	A	81-86	W	100%
2-1	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	H	81-78	W	100%
2-4	Temple (19.0)	A10	H	56-73	L	0%
2-8	Xavier (41.0)	A10	A	84-66	L	0%
2-11	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	A	73-66	L	0%
2-15	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	H	69-80	L	0%
2-18	St. Bonaventure (72.0)	A10	A	81-61	L	0%
2-25	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	H	64-62	W	100%
2-29	Fordham (240.0)	A10	H	78-58	W	100%
3-3	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	A	89-83	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Rhode Island	A10	25.96	25.96	21.09	21.09	-15.01	-15.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	3.82	3.82	62.07	62.07	0.92	0.92
Massachusetts	A10	3.77	3.77	67.74	67.74	1.34	1.34
Fordham	A10	3.66	3.66	33.33	33.33	-1.22	-1.22
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.20	2.20	59.38	59.38	0.41	0.41
La Salle	A10	2.20	2.20	62.50	62.50	0.55	0.55
Xavier	A10	2.18	2.18	62.50	62.50	0.55	0.55
Temple	A10	2.18	2.18	76.67	76.67	1.16	1.16
Duquesne	A10	2.17	2.17	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
St. Louis	A10	2.15	2.15	80.00	80.00	1.29	1.29
Dayton	A10	2.13	2.13	64.52	64.52	0.62	0.62
George Washington	A10	2.13	2.13	30.00	30.00	-0.85	-0.85
Richmond	A10	2.10	2.10	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Charlotte	A10	2.10	2.10	41.38	41.38	-0.36	-0.36
Boston University	AE	1.82	1.82	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	1.82	1.82	71.88	71.88	0.80	0.80
Hofstra	CAA	1.81	1.81	32.26	32.26	-0.64	-0.64
James Madison	CAA	1.81	1.81	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Boston College	ACC	1.79	1.79	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Georgia St.	CAA	1.76	1.76	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Brown	Ivy	1.75	1.75	20.69	20.69	-1.03	-1.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Maine	AE	1.69	1.69	37.04	37.04	-0.44	-0.44
Yale	Ivy	1.67	1.67	64.00	64.00	0.47	0.47
Providence	BE	1.67	1.67	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Texas	B12	1.66	1.66	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Central Florida	CUSA	1.61	1.61	65.52	65.52	0.50	0.50
Nebraska	B10	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Harvard	Ivy	0.30	0.30	86.21	86.21	0.22	0.22
Delaware	CAA	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.25	0.25	82.35	82.35	0.16	0.16
Northeastern	CAA	0.25	0.25	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Drexel	CAA	0.23	0.23	81.82	81.82	0.14	0.14
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.23	0.23	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Towson	CAA	0.22	0.22	3.12	3.12	-0.21	-0.21
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.22	0.22	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Cornell	Ivy	0.19	0.19	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	6.45	6.45	-0.16	-0.16
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.18	0.18	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.18	0.18	16.13	16.13	-0.12	-0.12
Albany	AE	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.16	0.16	93.94	93.94	0.14	0.14
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	NEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	64.29	64.29	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00