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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:57.9
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:29
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:21-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:191



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-320.20.46%
24-424.22.94%
23-531.49.37%
22-639.317.02%
21-749.822.75%
20-862.521.41%
19-976.314.28%
18-1092.37.55%
17-11109.43.06%
16-12127.80.91%
15-13146.20.19%
14-14174.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UMass Lowell (202.7)AEH72-56W100%0.0
11-22Nebraska (104.2)B10H66-62W100%0.0
11-27Kansas (6.8)B12N60-76L0%0.0
11-28Santa Clara (220.1)WCCN66-44W100%0.0
11-30Georgia Tech (76.2)ACCN64-61L0%0.0
12-6Southern Miss (287.9)CUSAA43-75W100%0.0
12-10Providence (66.3)BEA68-60L0%0.0
12-13Delaware St. (240.1)MEACH83-44W100%0.0
12-20Detroit (167.0)HorzH69-55W100%0.0
12-31Brown (250.7)IvyH0-096%20.9
1-3Saint Louis (249.9)A10A0-089%14.0
1-7Fordham (254.5)A10H0-097%21.6
1-10Duquesne (237.3)A10A0-081%10.4
1-13VCU (15.8)A10H0-057%2.2
1-17Massachusetts (100.7)A10A0-061%3.2
1-22La Salle (103.0)A10H0-083%11.1
1-25St. Bonaventure (97.2)A10H0-080%9.9
1-28Fordham (254.5)A10A0-087%13.0
1-31George Washington (74.3)A10H0-072%6.9
2-8Richmond (74.7)A10A0-053%0.8
2-11Saint Joseph's (172.4)A10A0-077%8.6
2-14Saint Louis (249.9)A10H0-097%22.6
2-18Massachusetts (100.7)A10H0-084%11.7
2-21George Mason (192.5)A10A0-079%9.3
2-25Davidson (28.3)A10H0-059%2.5
2-28La Salle (103.0)A10A0-059%2.6
3-3Dayton (70.7)A10A0-049%-0.2
3-7Saint Joseph's (172.4)A10H0-093%17.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1027.5626.1564.8673.448.1912.26
MassachusettsA100.234.3054.5553.050.020.26
FordhamA100.284.2928.5728.83-0.12-1.81
La SalleA100.004.2754.5555.050.000.43
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.2660.0044.960.00-0.43
Saint LouisA100.004.1763.6438.330.00-0.97
DaytonA100.002.5780.0069.990.001.03
DuquesneA100.282.5137.5034.34-0.07-0.79
St. BonaventureA100.002.5077.7867.040.000.85
VCUA100.002.4872.7377.120.001.35
George MasonA100.002.4833.3330.05-0.00-0.99
RichmondA100.002.4560.0058.320.000.41
George WashingtonA100.002.4566.6767.140.000.84
DavidsonA100.002.4588.8978.140.001.38
UMass LowellAE5.561.9155.5652.120.620.08
ProvidenceBE5.561.8772.7356.032.530.23
BrownIvy0.231.8540.0035.48-0.05-0.54
Georgia TechACC5.561.8277.7852.233.090.08
Delaware St.MEAC5.561.7940.0048.37-1.11-0.06
DetroitHorz5.561.7944.4449.54-0.62-0.02
KansasB125.561.7988.8970.124.320.72
NebraskaB105.561.7975.0045.642.78-0.16
Santa ClaraWCC5.561.7950.0038.330.00-0.42
Southern MissCUSA5.561.7942.8628.82-0.79-0.76
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.2538.4644.44-0.06-0.03
PennIvy0.250.2137.5033.40-0.06-0.07
VillanovaBE0.000.20100.0083.420.000.14
VermontAE0.000.1840.0053.58-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.18100.0089.960.000.14
Boston CollegeACC0.230.1860.0038.770.05-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1863.6456.720.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1691.6755.080.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1630.0043.77-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1530.0037.19-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1533.3349.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.350.1522.2236.02-0.19-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.310.1570.0059.740.120.03
Florida St.ACC0.540.1554.5541.660.05-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.280.1566.6758.480.090.02
Notre DameACC0.230.1591.6776.600.190.08
MarylandB100.000.1391.6772.610.000.06
NJITind0.560.1341.6743.31-0.09-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1354.5564.030.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1327.2735.54-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.280.1250.0048.150.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.280.1250.0046.480.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.230.120.0010.55-0.23-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.000.1290.9190.730.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1290.0082.040.000.08
BYUWCC0.000.1270.0068.400.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.1288.8965.680.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.1275.0063.910.000.03
IonaMAAC0.250.1260.0069.180.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.250.1245.4537.63-0.02-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0975.0065.050.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0950.0060.240.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0918.1825.24-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.620.090.0032.85-0.62-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0950.0051.800.000.00
AlbanyAE0.230.0940.0054.66-0.050.01
Michigan St.B100.590.0966.6766.950.200.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0966.6755.760.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.230.0940.0055.83-0.050.01
NorthwesternB100.280.0963.6442.700.08-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0970.0052.280.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0933.3341.93-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0960.0057.740.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0972.7374.520.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0930.0040.39-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1820.68-0.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.0980.0063.750.000.02
RiderMAAC0.860.0950.0052.960.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0940.0051.94-0.000.00
OregonP120.530.0970.0057.400.210.01
YaleIvy0.230.0966.6763.060.080.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0930.0029.93-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0023.75-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.280.0987.5085.130.210.06
CreightonBE0.310.0969.2349.070.12-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.590.0955.5646.470.07-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0963.6464.150.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0960.0064.660.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0960.0034.330.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.9183.170.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.0970.0062.800.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0936.3647.95-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0981.8263.950.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.0930.0042.78-0.10-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0990.9170.260.000.04
MarquetteBE0.280.0960.0049.390.06-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.280.0970.0059.760.110.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0772.7367.570.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0754.5548.910.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0730.0035.75-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0763.6472.270.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0737.5035.62-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.0616.6743.50-0.23-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.250.0650.0041.130.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0654.5553.240.000.00
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.65-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0610.0022.40-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0068.200.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0058.250.000.01
Ohio St.B100.280.0681.8282.150.180.04
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.450.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0050.570.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5057.910.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.750.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0645.4552.17-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.760.000.05
CampbellBSth0.250.0625.0043.91-0.13-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0645.4545.06-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.250.0666.6754.450.080.01
MichiganB100.280.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0612.5029.75-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0654.5532.610.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.280.0655.5660.570.030.01
UCFAmer0.280.0655.5635.910.03-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.280.0630.0041.58-0.11-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6769.260.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.250.060.008.46-0.25-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0677.7878.340.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0030.65-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.26-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8272.960.000.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.310.0670.0064.920.120.02
ArkansasSEC0.250.0680.0072.430.150.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.280.0675.0067.220.140.02
ToledoMAC0.280.0663.6461.500.080.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.060.0028.78-0.28-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0630.0032.35-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0043.870.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0641.6751.30-0.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0637.5039.38-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.93-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0915.53-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0644.4437.49-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0612.5026.95-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0670.0059.860.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5545.090.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.44-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.060.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0061.160.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.480.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7368.580.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0670.0076.570.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.820.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.220.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.510.06100.0096.240.510.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0680.0058.040.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0053.920.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0068.320.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.9180.170.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.400.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.200.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.350.0370.0052.050.140.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0340.0047.08-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8648.12-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.350.0366.6771.560.120.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.55-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.350.0350.0054.280.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.53-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.350.0342.8640.42-0.05-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2914.63-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0337.5041.68-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.0336.3637.27-0.08-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.030.0016.07-0.31-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.310.0380.0076.780.190.02
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.040.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0322.2247.34-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.0350.0055.090.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0333.3343.26-0.10-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.240.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0038.92-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.310.030.006.54-0.31-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0355.5665.160.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0026.86-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0366.6764.890.100.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.280.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.310.0354.5548.690.03-0.00
Washington St.P120.310.0345.4530.45-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.5549.050.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0320.0029.06-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0337.5050.46-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0377.7871.240.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0320.0027.60-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.84-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.009.03-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0350.0049.140.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0025.91-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.21-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7361.760.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0354.5559.550.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0350.0071.160.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0043.53-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.01-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.0340.0041.10-0.06-0.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.75-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0333.3338.71-0.09-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.340.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.740.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.160.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0366.6763.320.090.01
IPFWSum0.280.0350.0054.440.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.63-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.340.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0360.0057.780.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0370.0061.360.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.280.0363.6467.200.080.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.340.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0363.6464.930.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.340.000.01
FloridaSEC0.280.0363.6464.970.080.01
High PointBSth0.000.0366.6761.820.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0061.400.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0327.2728.77-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6456.310.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0377.7858.610.000.00
LafayettePat0.280.0366.6768.370.090.01
NavyPat0.230.0320.0022.49-0.14-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0360.0062.090.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5064.62-0.070.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6750.030.000.00
UtahP120.280.0380.0080.490.170.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1457.190.000.00