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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:34.2
Current RPI:38
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:29
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:30
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-35.70.06%
26-48.50.53%
25-512.02.52%
24-615.97.16%
23-720.413.13%
22-825.719.85%
21-932.219.90%
20-1040.616.91%
19-1150.410.89%
18-1262.05.89%
17-1374.82.30%
16-1491.80.63%
15-15107.50.15%
14-16125.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dartmouth (319.6)IvyH84-61W100%0.0
11-14Marist (246.8)MAACH107-65W100%0.0
11-16Brown (264.6)IvyH79-72W100%0.0
11-19Cincinnati (18.6)AmerN76-71W100%0.0
11-20Duke (8.4)ACCN65-75L0%0.0
11-25Belmont (107.2)OVCH82-73W100%0.0
11-29Valparaiso (72.3)HorzA65-62L0%0.0
12-3Providence (61.9)BEA63-60L0%0.0
12-6Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAH51-39W100%0.0
12-10Houston (41.9)AmerA0-034%-5.1
12-18Holy Cross (195.1)PatH0-094%18.5
12-22William & Mary (171.5)CAAH0-090%15.2
12-30Saint Louis (286.5)A10A0-092%16.8
1-3Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10H0-084%12.2
1-6Dayton (38.8)A10A0-037%-3.9
1-12La Salle (90.1)A10H0-079%9.6
1-15Massachusetts (109.7)A10H0-081%10.7
1-21Duquesne (244.3)A10A0-083%11.3
1-25Richmond (173.6)A10A0-070%6.4
1-28St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10H0-070%6.2
1-31George Washington (187.8)A10H0-090%15.1
2-3Davidson (68.7)A10A0-052%0.5
2-7Massachusetts (109.7)A10A0-064%4.5
2-10Dayton (38.8)A10H0-058%2.3
2-15Fordham (219.4)A10H0-091%15.9
2-18George Mason (191.5)A10A0-079%9.8
2-21La Salle (90.1)A10A0-061%3.3
2-25VCU (43.9)A10H0-064%4.2
3-1Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10A0-069%5.9
3-4Davidson (68.7)A10H0-071%6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1028.1226.1264.5270.658.1710.79
MassachusettsA100.004.0071.4360.320.000.83
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.9442.8646.91-0.00-0.24
La SalleA100.003.9457.1458.480.000.67
DavidsonA100.003.8971.4364.800.001.15
DaytonA100.003.8871.4374.810.001.93
VCUA100.002.3775.0074.150.001.14
FordhamA100.002.3650.0042.760.00-0.34
St. BonaventureA100.002.3675.0071.730.001.03
Saint LouisA100.002.3425.0024.53-0.00-1.19
RichmondA100.352.3350.0049.140.00-0.04
George MasonA100.002.3362.5047.380.00-0.12
DuquesneA100.002.3140.0039.92-0.00-0.46
George WashingtonA100.002.3155.5643.210.00-0.31
BrownIvy6.521.8155.5645.400.72-0.17
Old DominionCUSA6.021.7871.4368.792.580.67
MaristMAAC6.571.7850.0035.750.00-0.51
DartmouthIvy6.211.780.0021.52-6.21-1.01
CincinnatiAmer5.831.75100.0085.195.831.23
ProvidenceBE5.831.7575.0058.612.920.30
HoustonAmer0.001.7575.0075.480.000.89
Holy CrossPat0.001.7537.5048.81-0.00-0.04
DukeACC5.861.7288.8979.404.561.01
William & MaryCAA0.281.7233.3347.44-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC5.561.6766.6766.981.850.57
ValparaisoHorz5.561.6783.3374.393.700.81
HarvardIvy0.000.2833.3349.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.2875.0064.820.000.08
PennIvy0.000.2633.3356.66-0.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.2020.0060.00-0.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.1985.7175.800.000.10
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1842.8643.78-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1750.0041.460.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0084.740.000.12
CornellIvy0.000.1528.5730.43-0.00-0.06
DelawareCAA0.000.1550.0041.700.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.350.1512.5030.17-0.26-0.06
MercerSC0.000.1442.8647.68-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.280.1414.2923.40-0.20-0.08
BucknellPat0.000.1470.0070.530.000.06
St. John'sBE0.350.1444.4436.20-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.620.1466.6746.170.21-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1457.1450.790.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.1242.8663.63-0.000.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1266.6761.690.000.03
TowsonCAA0.350.1242.8653.80-0.050.01
LipscombASun1.140.1211.1132.47-0.89-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1128.5731.07-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1162.5050.630.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.460.1157.1429.760.07-0.05
VermontAE0.620.1162.5071.400.150.05
AlabamaSEC0.400.1157.1451.740.060.00
NiagaraMAAC0.590.1125.0035.75-0.29-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1155.5647.600.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.1137.5061.81-0.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.910.000.07
AlbanyAE0.620.1142.8660.66-0.090.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.310.1128.5737.54-0.13-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1142.8644.90-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.1142.8635.40-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.310.1175.0056.270.150.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0047.990.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.1166.6766.650.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1112.5023.82-0.00-0.06
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0037.700.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1137.5044.42-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.1133.3350.05-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1157.1433.200.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0955.5643.870.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.290.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.0962.5054.660.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7169.920.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0933.3336.67-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0922.2226.44-0.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.400.0955.5646.770.04-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0937.5048.85-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0937.5037.96-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.400.0937.5035.03-0.10-0.03
FloridaSEC0.670.0977.7872.930.370.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0928.5746.79-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.350.0987.5075.690.260.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5075.730.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.920.000.05
VMISC0.000.090.0016.56-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.310.0862.5062.120.080.02
FairfieldMAAC0.460.0862.5055.890.120.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0828.5727.38-0.12-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0816.6730.09-0.19-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.560.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0862.5060.090.000.02
KansasB120.280.0888.8977.470.220.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.380.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0850.0071.340.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0870.0050.010.000.00
LSUSEC0.350.0871.4347.690.15-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0862.5053.550.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0050.980.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0842.8650.29-0.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0061.350.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0822.2232.01-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0857.1450.860.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0877.7855.180.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6743.53-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.830.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5030.11-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0888.8967.470.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0842.8645.85-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0877.7866.740.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0877.7872.210.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.63-0.00-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.310.0820.0035.15-0.19-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0828.5752.65-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0887.5070.880.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.980.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.280.0622.2246.51-0.15-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0058.720.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.460.0620.0021.92-0.28-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.400.0642.8633.51-0.06-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1449.640.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.770.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.280.0625.0041.19-0.14-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0655.5637.870.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.130.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.090.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.730.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.590.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.590.0612.5026.05-0.44-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0612.5033.18-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5052.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.400.0550.0050.170.000.00
BYUWCC0.400.0562.5067.080.100.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.08-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.99-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0587.5082.220.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.400.050.0025.31-0.40-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3340.37-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.840.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0580.0054.190.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0512.5028.64-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.07-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.540.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0571.4337.680.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.370.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.590.0542.8658.24-0.080.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.540.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0030.02-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0577.7864.250.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0533.3338.56-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0048.980.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.350.0562.5056.520.090.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0575.0054.480.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0562.5062.080.000.01
VirginiaACC0.310.0588.8978.430.240.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0064.910.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0362.5052.400.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0060.950.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0328.5724.39-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.35-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.400.030.0017.16-0.40-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.49-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.400.0375.0072.800.200.01
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.79-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.90-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.070.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.350.0325.0040.78-0.17-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.310.0325.0031.76-0.15-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
Iowa St.B120.350.0375.0071.330.170.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.280.0360.0058.780.060.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.01
Ohio St.B100.310.0377.7862.010.170.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02