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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:201.0
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:61
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21201.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH55-67L0%0.0
11-12Virginia Tech (177.0)ACCA69-50L0%0.0
11-17Ohio St. (10.0)B10N58-69L0%0.0
11-18Seton Hall (138.0)BEN60-55L0%0.0
11-23Loyola MD (99.0)MAACH54-58L0%0.0
11-25Auburn (252.0)SECA72-78W100%0.0
11-28George Mason (162.0)CAAH52-55L0%0.0
12-1Vermont (134.0)AEH76-66W100%0.0
12-6Providence (91.0)BEA72-57L0%0.0
12-15Southern Methodist (219.0)CUSAH72-50W100%0.0
12-22Georgia St. (209.0)CAAH65-60W100%0.0
12-27St. Mary's (29.0)WCCA82-59L0%0.0
1-4Brown (241.0)IvyH59-47W100%0.0
1-9Richmond (92.0)A10A64-61L0%0.0
1-12Charlotte (68.0)A10H50-58L0%0.0
1-19St. Louis (15.0)A10A80-82W100%0.0
1-23George Washington (147.0)A10H65-66L0%0.0
1-26Fordham (228.0)A10A66-63L0%0.0
1-30Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H64-70L0%0.0
2-2Butler (22.0)A10A75-68L0%0.0
2-6Massachusetts (57.0)A10A81-53L0%0.0
2-9St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10H61-67L0%0.0
2-13Dayton (114.0)A10H75-72W100%0.0
2-16Duquesne (229.0)A10A62-67W100%0.0
2-20Xavier (87.0)A10H42-55L0%0.0
2-24La Salle (46.0)A10H65-72L0%0.0
3-2Temple (42.0)A10A76-70L0%0.0
3-6Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A81-44L0%0.0
3-9Massachusetts (57.0)A10H66-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1025.8525.8525.1725.17-12.83-12.83
MassachusettsA103.943.9463.3363.331.051.05
ButlerA102.272.2775.0075.001.141.14
Virginia CommonwealthA102.272.2775.7675.761.171.17
St. LouisA102.242.2484.3884.381.541.54
XavierA102.222.2253.3353.330.150.15
George WashingtonA102.222.2241.3841.38-0.38-0.38
TempleA102.222.2270.9770.970.930.93
Saint Joseph'sA102.222.2256.6756.670.300.30
CharlotteA102.222.2264.5264.520.640.64
DaytonA102.222.2256.6756.670.300.30
RichmondA102.222.2254.8454.840.210.21
La SalleA102.192.1968.9768.970.830.83
DuquesneA102.162.1627.5927.59-0.97-0.97
FordhamA102.162.1620.0020.00-1.30-1.30
St. BonaventureA102.162.1646.4346.43-0.15-0.15
ProvidenceBE1.861.8653.3353.330.120.12
Seton HallBE1.811.8143.7543.75-0.23-0.23
George MasonCAA1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
Norfolk St.MEAC1.781.7864.5264.520.520.52
AuburnSEC1.751.7529.0329.03-0.73-0.73
BrownIvy1.751.7546.1546.15-0.13-0.13
Georgia St.CAA1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDMAAC1.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
Ohio St.B101.721.7278.1278.120.970.97
Southern MethodistCUSA1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
St. Mary'sWCC1.721.7280.6580.651.061.06
VermontAE1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
Virginia TechACC1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
NortheasternCAA0.270.2762.5062.500.070.07
HarvardIvy0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
SienaMAAC0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.200.2058.8258.820.030.03
AlbanyAE0.190.1970.5970.590.080.08
TowsonCAA0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
HofstraCAA0.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
IonaMAAC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
VillanovaBE0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1670.5970.590.070.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1653.8553.850.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Miami FLACC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
DukeACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
YaleIvy0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Notre DameBE0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
MaineAE0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
SyracuseBE0.130.1374.2974.290.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
New HampshireAE0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
PittsburghBE0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
RiderMAAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
CincinnatiBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MemphisCUSA0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
South FloridaBE0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.7593.750.090.09
MarquetteBE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
KansasB120.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
WashingtonP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
CornellIvy0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
BucknellPat0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
PacificBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DePaulBE0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
ElonSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
NebraskaB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0548.0048.00-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TroySB0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01