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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:119
Current SOS:119
Current Record:21-9
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:114
Expected OOC SOS:215



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-966.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UMass Lowell (266.0)AEH72-56W100%0.0
11-22Nebraska (158.0)B10H66-62W100%0.0
11-27Kansas (2.0)B12N60-76L0%0.0
11-28Santa Clara (202.0)WCCN66-44W100%0.0
11-30Georgia Tech (153.0)ACCN64-61L0%0.0
12-6Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA43-75W100%0.0
12-10Providence (22.0)BEA68-60L0%0.0
12-13Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH83-44W100%0.0
12-20Detroit (205.0)HorzH69-55W100%0.0
12-31Brown (248.0)IvyH80-60W100%0.0
1-3Saint Louis (272.0)A10A53-65W100%0.0
1-7Fordham (238.0)A10H68-65W100%0.0
1-10Duquesne (222.0)A10A60-61W100%0.0
1-13VCU (15.0)A10H60-65L0%0.0
1-17Massachusetts (80.0)A10A60-56L0%0.0
1-22La Salle (101.0)A10H59-47W100%0.0
1-25St. Bonaventure (121.0)A10H53-48W100%0.0
1-28Fordham (238.0)A10A63-64W100%0.0
1-31George Washington (84.0)A10H59-55W100%0.0
2-8Richmond (56.0)A10A74-79W100%0.0
2-11Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A65-64L0%0.0
2-14Saint Louis (272.0)A10H81-68W100%0.0
2-18Massachusetts (80.0)A10H75-59W100%0.0
2-21George Mason (221.0)A10A56-71W100%0.0
2-25Davidson (35.0)A10H59-60L0%0.0
2-28La Salle (101.0)A10A56-59W100%0.0
3-3Dayton (32.0)A10A75-59L0%0.0
3-7Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H78-68W100%0.0
3-13George Washington (84.0)A10N71-58W100%0.0
3-14Dayton (32.0)A10N56-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.1726.1769.8569.8510.3910.39
DaytonA104.104.1074.1974.191.981.98
La SalleA104.104.1054.8454.840.400.40
FordhamA104.094.0932.1432.14-1.46-1.46
MassachusettsA104.074.0753.3353.330.270.27
Saint Joseph'sA104.024.0241.3841.38-0.69-0.69
George WashingtonA103.973.9767.7467.741.411.41
Saint LouisA103.963.9634.4834.48-1.23-1.23
VCUA102.522.5273.5373.531.181.18
DuquesneA102.512.5137.9337.93-0.61-0.61
St. BonaventureA102.482.4860.0060.000.500.50
George MasonA102.402.4027.5927.59-1.08-1.08
DavidsonA102.402.4075.8675.861.241.24
RichmondA102.352.3561.2961.290.530.53
UMass LowellAE1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
ProvidenceBE1.751.7565.6265.620.550.55
BrownIvy1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Georgia TechACC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Delaware St.MEAC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
KansasB121.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
NebraskaB101.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Santa ClaraWCC1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Southern MissCUSA1.671.6726.9226.92-0.77-0.77
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.200.2094.1294.120.180.18
Penn St.B100.190.1952.9452.940.010.01
PennIvy0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
VirginiaACC0.180.1890.6290.620.150.15
VermontAE0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
DrexelCAA0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
St. John'sBE0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.1087.100.100.10
Florida St.ACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
CornellIvy0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
UMBCAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.110.1193.9493.940.100.10
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
RiderMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0627.2727.27-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01