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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:19.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-719.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UNC Asheville (130.0)BSthH84-60W100%0.0
11-13Nevada (17.0)MWCA88-81L0%0.0
11-19Holy Cross (265.0)PatH88-66W100%0.0
11-23Seton Hall (31.0)BEN74-75W100%0.0
11-24Virginia (1.0)ACCN55-70L0%0.0
11-28Brown (298.0)IvyH86-62W100%0.0
12-2Providence (32.0)BEH75-68W100%0.0
12-6Alabama (42.0)SECA68-64L0%0.0
12-16College of Charleston (57.0)CAAH68-62W100%0.0
12-21Iona (107.0)MAACH80-74W100%0.0
12-27Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunH80-60W100%0.0
12-30George Mason (201.0)A10H83-64W100%0.0
1-3La Salle (202.0)A10H74-62W100%0.0
1-6George Washington (195.0)A10A60-81W100%0.0
1-9Saint Louis (148.0)A10A65-72W100%0.0
1-13St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H87-73W100%0.0
1-17Massachusetts (240.0)A10H73-51W100%0.0
1-20Dayton (146.0)A10A74-88W100%0.0
1-24Fordham (290.0)A10A58-78W100%0.0
1-27Duquesne (259.0)A10H61-58W100%0.0
1-30Massachusetts (240.0)A10A83-85W100%0.0
2-2VCU (135.0)A10A68-81W100%0.0
2-9Davidson (47.0)A10H72-59W100%0.0
2-13Richmond (176.0)A10H85-67W100%0.0
2-16St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A77-74L0%0.0
2-20La Salle (202.0)A10A93-95W100%0.0
2-23Dayton (146.0)A10H81-56W100%0.0
2-27Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10H48-78L0%0.0
3-2Davidson (47.0)A10A63-61L0%0.0
3-9VCU (135.0)A10N76-67W100%0.0
3-10Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10N90-87W100%0.0
3-11Davidson (47.0)A10N57-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.2226.2278.9978.9915.2015.20
DavidsonA105.375.3765.5265.521.671.67
MassachusettsA103.883.8841.9441.94-0.63-0.63
St. BonaventureA103.863.8680.0080.002.312.31
VCUA103.833.8358.0658.060.620.62
La SalleA103.813.8143.3343.33-0.51-0.51
Saint Joseph'sA103.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA103.783.7848.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Saint LouisA102.372.3751.6151.610.080.08
George MasonA102.342.3450.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA102.312.3138.7138.71-0.52-0.52
FordhamA102.312.3130.0030.00-0.93-0.93
George WashingtonA102.292.2946.8846.88-0.14-0.14
DuquesneA102.252.2551.6151.610.070.07
ProvidenceBE1.711.7163.6463.640.470.47
VirginiaACC1.681.6893.7593.751.471.47
Holy CrossPat1.681.6840.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Seton HallBE1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
NevadaMWC1.641.6478.7978.790.940.94
IonaMAAC1.591.5962.5062.500.400.40
BrownIvy1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
AlabamaSEC1.561.5654.5554.550.140.14
College of CharlestonCAA1.561.5680.0080.000.940.94
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
UNC AshevilleBSth1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
HarvardIvy0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
BucknellPat0.220.2273.5373.530.100.10
VillanovaBE0.220.2288.2488.240.160.16
PennIvy0.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
SienaMAAC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
St. John'sBE0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
AuburnSEC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MarquetteBE0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
XavierBE0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
PrincetonIvy0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
AkronMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
MaineAE0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
TempleAmer0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
SyracuseACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
NavyPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
William & MaryCAA0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
LipscombASun0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
DePaulBE0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
CampbellBSth0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
LafayettePat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01