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Through games of Feb 4, 2016.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:105.0
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:88
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1056.50.33%
20-1167.63.33%
19-1279.714.42%
18-1393.428.07%
17-14109.830.10%
16-15127.917.17%
15-16145.85.53%
14-17162.90.90%
13-18178.80.13%
12-19195.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13American (256.6)PatH65-42W100%0.0
11-17Valparaiso (35.6)HorzH55-58L0%0.0
11-21Cleveland St. (273.2)HorzH73-45W100%0.0
11-24TCU (175.8)B12N66-60W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (8.3)B10N86-63L0%0.0
11-29Rider (225.8)MAACH82-57W100%0.0
12-2Holy Cross (285.4)PatH74-56W100%0.0
12-5Providence (41.3)BEH72-74L0%0.0
12-8Houston (99.3)AmerH67-57W100%0.0
12-13Nebraska (148.5)B10A70-67L0%0.0
12-19Iona (140.8)MAACH79-74W100%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (145.3)CUSAA71-65L0%0.0
12-30Brown (295.6)IvyA85-88W100%0.0
1-2Saint Louis (197.4)A10H85-57W100%0.0
1-5Richmond (113.1)A10H77-65W100%0.0
1-10Saint Joseph's (38.4)A10A72-67L0%0.0
1-13St. Bonaventure (50.1)A10A69-64L0%0.0
1-16La Salle (259.5)A10H73-62W100%0.0
1-22George Washington (52.6)A10A62-58L0%0.0
1-27Fordham (177.6)A10H79-63W100%0.0
1-30Saint Joseph's (38.4)A10H55-64L0%0.0
2-2Massachusetts (191.8)A10A61-56L0%0.0
2-6La Salle (259.5)A10A0-086%11.6
2-9George Mason (186.5)A10H0-087%12.4
2-12Dayton (14.6)A10H0-045%-1.4
2-16VCU (29.7)A10A0-021%-8.7
2-20Duquesne (101.9)A10H0-077%8.1
2-23Davidson (80.7)A10A0-050%-0.1
2-27Dayton (14.6)A10A0-023%-8.0
3-3Massachusetts (191.8)A10H0-085%11.6
3-5Fordham (177.6)A10A0-060%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.2826.1248.8453.34-0.611.75
La SalleA102.593.9022.2221.95-1.44-2.19
Saint Joseph'sA104.883.8980.0075.862.932.01
MassachusettsA102.713.8840.0038.64-0.54-0.88
FordhamA102.603.8561.1156.940.580.53
DaytonA100.403.8085.7182.310.282.46
St. BonaventureA102.482.2968.4267.990.920.82
RichmondA102.662.2755.0055.520.270.25
VCUA100.492.2777.2776.710.271.21
DuquesneA100.282.2466.6760.010.090.45
Saint LouisA102.382.2440.0034.54-0.48-0.69
George MasonA100.382.2136.3636.07-0.10-0.62
George WashingtonA102.492.2176.1970.731.310.92
DavidsonA100.272.2157.8955.610.040.25
RiderMAAC2.591.8140.9143.68-0.47-0.23
ProvidenceBE2.441.7277.2771.031.330.72
Cleveland St.Horz2.431.7223.8124.21-1.27-0.89
Old DominionCUSA2.431.7252.3860.670.120.37
Holy CrossPat2.391.7042.8641.13-0.34-0.30
ValparaisoHorz2.381.7080.0082.421.431.10
AmericanPat2.321.6933.3333.88-0.77-0.55
IonaMAAC2.431.6960.0059.770.490.33
MarylandB102.421.6986.3681.131.761.05
BrownIvy2.371.6731.2530.86-0.89-0.64
NebraskaB102.321.6450.0049.940.00-0.00
HoustonAmer2.271.6176.1970.351.190.66
TCUB122.271.6147.6239.10-0.11-0.35
NiagaraMAAC0.330.2426.0926.65-0.16-0.11
ColgatePat0.320.2242.8643.53-0.05-0.03
PennIvy0.230.2031.2532.68-0.09-0.07
LafayettePat0.210.1923.8125.23-0.11-0.10
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1945.0043.24-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.260.1986.3685.330.190.13
HarvardIvy0.160.1738.8942.86-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.280.1719.0521.34-0.17-0.09
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1652.1754.440.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.270.1668.7573.150.100.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.330.1640.0042.55-0.07-0.02
TempleAmer0.210.1661.9058.400.050.03
UCFAmer0.110.1655.0047.190.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.1678.2680.340.030.10
Loyola MDPat0.160.1431.8234.36-0.06-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.1431.8233.76-0.08-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1461.9062.050.030.03
DrexelCAA0.220.1414.2918.59-0.16-0.09
ArmyPat0.150.1454.5555.990.010.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.1454.5555.190.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1443.4845.72-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.200.1438.1037.49-0.05-0.03
SienaMAAC0.110.1465.2266.710.030.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.260.1327.2732.87-0.12-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.210.1357.1457.530.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1373.9173.090.070.06
CreightonBE0.150.1360.8759.050.030.02
Penn St.B100.100.1347.8343.65-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.100.1382.6178.230.070.07
MaineAE0.180.1236.3635.58-0.05-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1168.4265.480.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1145.0049.60-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1150.0050.870.000.00
BucknellPat0.150.1152.3856.750.010.02
DetroitHorz0.160.1145.0044.39-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.115.267.23-0.14-0.10
LehighPat0.100.1130.0036.11-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.150.1165.2265.220.050.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1130.0032.46-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.110.1166.6767.310.040.04
Green BayHorz0.110.1157.1457.880.020.02
SMUAmer0.220.1190.4885.540.180.08
St. John'sBE0.110.1127.2724.41-0.05-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.170.1156.5253.440.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.210.1154.5553.540.020.01
HartfordAE0.200.1126.0926.47-0.10-0.05
IowaB100.100.1181.8279.900.060.06
North FloridaASun0.050.1168.1869.350.020.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1166.6763.490.050.03
WisconsinB100.050.1160.8755.900.010.01
XavierBE0.050.1190.9184.430.040.07
Illinois St.MVC0.200.1052.1747.620.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.150.104.7614.00-0.14-0.08
RutgersB100.150.1022.7320.68-0.08-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0913.6413.79-0.09-0.06
New HampshireAE0.170.0952.6351.510.010.00
HofstraCAA0.120.0968.1865.430.040.03
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0831.8226.63-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.0880.9575.610.070.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0863.6457.320.020.01
BelmontOVC0.160.0869.5770.030.060.03
TulsaAmer0.110.0863.6459.930.030.02
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0847.6249.34-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0836.3642.18-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0872.7372.460.050.04
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0829.4138.46-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.100.0880.9577.010.060.04
WagnerNEC0.100.0861.9063.360.020.02
MichiganB100.100.0872.7367.970.040.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0863.6456.050.010.01
Ohio St.B100.100.0858.3354.130.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.150.0820.8320.11-0.09-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0870.0069.350.020.03
FloridaSEC0.160.0868.1867.800.060.03
IllinoisB100.100.0847.8344.51-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0882.6177.360.030.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0859.0955.560.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.0847.8350.56-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.150.0882.6181.380.100.05
Texas TechB120.110.0861.9054.010.030.01
West VirginiaB120.110.0881.8278.720.070.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0847.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.0810.0014.87-0.12-0.05
DePaulBE0.100.0836.3634.96-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0850.0045.740.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0872.7368.660.050.03
TennesseeSEC0.150.0850.0048.260.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0647.0643.12-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0635.2933.93-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.130.0670.5972.600.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.7922.52-0.04-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0652.3853.800.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0665.0068.740.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
BryantNEC0.120.0626.0927.58-0.06-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0663.6461.820.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0652.3854.240.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0686.3680.670.040.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0680.0070.310.000.02
AkronMAC0.110.0680.9579.160.070.03
OhioMAC0.110.0660.0057.940.020.01
Oregon St.P120.110.0660.0054.580.020.01
MercerSC0.000.0571.4370.590.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0554.5555.310.010.01
LSUSEC0.100.0563.6459.440.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0541.6746.85-0.02-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0547.6252.95-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0576.1976.210.050.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1452.310.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0550.0054.850.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0516.6724.28-0.04-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0585.7184.560.000.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0563.6462.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.000.0554.5553.780.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0540.0042.58-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0528.5728.87-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0514.2916.31-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0533.3332.42-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0559.0962.730.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0554.5552.770.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0569.5768.670.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.0522.38-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0526.0927.82-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.3921.76-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0552.1754.150.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0533.3333.55-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0576.1967.340.030.02
ButlerBE0.100.0568.1866.480.040.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0555.5650.840.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0572.7368.840.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0565.2256.540.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.0068.920.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0521.0529.17-0.06-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0530.0029.47-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0590.4884.910.040.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0525.0028.19-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0510.5325.36-0.08-0.03
TexasB120.100.0568.1861.760.040.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0581.8276.020.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.0552.1747.260.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0361.9059.920.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0350.0053.080.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0029.91-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.220.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0355.0048.830.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.05-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0322.7323.65-0.03-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.320.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0373.9170.210.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0340.9139.23-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0340.9138.03-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.220.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0331.8235.17-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.0082.450.030.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0347.6257.24-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0357.1457.580.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0340.0049.72-0.01-0.00
VermontAE0.060.0356.5258.380.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0335.2944.50-0.02-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.70-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0381.8281.000.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.99-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0381.8277.490.030.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0359.0958.570.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.6252.91-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0310.0015.31-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.92-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0359.0958.090.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.35-0.03-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0029.52-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0318.1822.84-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0375.0073.480.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0334.7841.60-0.02-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0325.0029.75-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0345.4547.97-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0320.8325.00-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0315.0015.65-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0345.4542.13-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0376.1979.640.030.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0340.9140.45-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0378.2677.230.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.61-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.038.709.78-0.04-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0372.7369.900.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0373.9176.040.020.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0368.1863.240.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.26-0.01-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0361.1158.310.010.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0331.8232.90-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.210.030.01
NJITASun0.050.0352.1754.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.48-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0352.3853.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0340.9143.36-0.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0333.3333.65-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0381.8278.320.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.98-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0368.1862.170.020.01