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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:31.0
Current RPI:31
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:55
Current Record:24-9
Expected Record:24-9
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:36
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-931.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Dartmouth (305.0)IvyH84-61W100%0.0
11-14Marist (276.0)MAACH107-65W100%0.0
11-16Brown (284.0)IvyH79-72W100%0.0
11-19Cincinnati (12.0)AmerN76-71W100%0.0
11-20Duke (6.0)ACCN65-75L0%0.0
11-25Belmont (61.0)OVCH82-73W100%0.0
11-29Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA65-62L0%0.0
12-3Providence (56.0)BEA63-60L0%0.0
12-6Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAH51-39W100%0.0
12-10Houston (54.0)AmerA82-77L0%0.0
12-18Holy Cross (204.0)PatH65-54W100%0.0
12-22William & Mary (110.0)CAAH73-62W100%0.0
12-30Saint Louis (238.0)A10A56-90W100%0.0
1-3Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H88-58W100%0.0
1-6Dayton (30.0)A10A67-64L0%0.0
1-12La Salle (133.0)A10H75-87L0%0.0
1-15Massachusetts (195.0)A10H79-77W100%0.0
1-21Duquesne (267.0)A10A69-90W100%0.0
1-25Richmond (80.0)A10A73-62L0%0.0
1-28St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10H71-59W100%0.0
1-31George Washington (102.0)A10H82-70W100%0.0
2-3Davidson (93.0)A10A59-70W100%0.0
2-7Massachusetts (195.0)A10A62-70W100%0.0
2-10Dayton (30.0)A10H74-75L0%0.0
2-15Fordham (215.0)A10H43-53L0%0.0
2-18George Mason (103.0)A10A74-77W100%0.0
2-21La Salle (133.0)A10A56-67W100%0.0
2-25VCU (22.0)A10H69-59W100%0.0
3-1Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A49-68W100%0.0
3-4Davidson (93.0)A10H73-70W100%0.0
3-10St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N74-63W100%0.0
3-11Davidson (93.0)A10N84-60W100%0.0
3-12VCU (22.0)A10N63-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.2326.2372.4872.4811.7911.79
DavidsonA105.195.1958.6258.620.900.90
MassachusettsA103.803.8048.3948.39-0.12-0.12
VCUA103.753.7581.2581.252.342.34
St. BonaventureA103.723.7266.6766.671.241.24
Saint Joseph'sA103.703.7037.9337.93-0.89-0.89
La SalleA103.693.6950.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA103.693.6975.0075.001.841.84
RichmondA102.272.2761.2961.290.510.51
George MasonA102.252.2561.2961.290.510.51
Saint LouisA102.232.2337.5037.50-0.56-0.56
FordhamA102.232.2336.6736.67-0.60-0.60
George WashingtonA102.232.2359.3859.380.420.42
DuquesneA102.182.1832.2632.26-0.77-0.77
BrownIvy1.641.6440.7440.74-0.30-0.30
Old DominionCUSA1.641.6463.3363.330.440.44
DartmouthIvy1.621.6226.9226.92-0.75-0.75
MaristMAAC1.621.6225.8125.81-0.78-0.78
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5987.8887.881.211.21
ProvidenceBE1.591.5961.2961.290.360.36
Holy CrossPat1.581.5848.3948.39-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer1.581.5866.6766.670.530.53
DukeACC1.561.5676.4776.470.830.83
William & MaryCAA1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
BelmontOVC1.521.5280.7780.770.930.93
ValparaisoHorz1.521.5273.3373.330.710.71
HarvardIvy0.250.2561.5461.540.060.06
TempleAmer0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.200.2078.5778.570.120.12
UCFAmer0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
MercerSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
CornellIvy0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
DelawareCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1230.3030.30-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
LipscombASun0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
VermontAE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ArmyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BaylorB120.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01