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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:155.0
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:86
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18155.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Maine (330.0)AEH97-77W100%0.0
11-11SMU (53.0)AmerA89-58L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH72-59W100%0.0
11-19Arizona (2.0)P12A87-59L0%0.0
11-23UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH79-68W100%0.0
11-25UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH73-56W100%0.0
11-26McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH76-71W100%0.0
11-30George Mason (164.0)A10A61-54L0%0.0
12-5Providence (40.0)BEH49-50L0%0.0
12-8Detroit (230.0)HorzA70-68L0%0.0
12-22New Hampshire (340.0)AEH62-45W100%0.0
12-28Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH64-77L0%0.0
1-2Brown (229.0)IvyA66-75W100%0.0
1-4LSU (83.0)SECA70-74W100%0.0
1-7Saint Louis (27.0)A10H58-59L0%0.0
1-11George Washington (29.0)A10A69-56L0%0.0
1-15La Salle (98.0)A10A72-62L0%0.0
1-18George Mason (164.0)A10H71-69W100%0.0
1-22Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A61-57L0%0.0
1-25Dayton (43.0)A10H88-76W100%0.0
2-1Fordham (226.0)A10A85-79L0%0.0
2-6VCU (13.0)A10A68-52L0%0.0
2-9Massachusetts (23.0)A10H68-73L0%0.0
2-12Dayton (43.0)A10A76-69L0%0.0
2-15Duquesne (187.0)A10H71-83L0%0.0
2-19Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H54-57L0%0.0
2-22St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A78-87W100%0.0
2-26Massachusetts (23.0)A10A70-67L0%0.0
3-1Richmond (75.0)A10H66-43W100%0.0
3-5Fordham (226.0)A10H77-65W100%0.0
3-13Massachusetts (23.0)A10N65-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.1626.1638.9338.93-5.79-5.79
MassachusettsA105.425.4272.4172.412.432.43
Saint Joseph'sA103.913.9170.9770.971.641.64
George MasonA103.843.8434.4834.48-1.19-1.19
DaytonA103.833.8370.9770.971.611.61
FordhamA103.803.8031.0331.03-1.44-1.44
St. BonaventureA102.332.3354.8454.840.230.23
George WashingtonA102.332.3374.1974.191.131.13
VCUA102.272.2775.7675.761.171.17
DuquesneA102.252.2539.2939.29-0.48-0.48
Saint LouisA102.252.2580.0080.001.351.35
RichmondA102.252.2559.3859.380.420.42
La SalleA102.222.2246.6746.67-0.15-0.15
UMass LowellAE1.811.8134.6234.62-0.56-0.56
New HampshireAE1.791.7917.8617.86-1.15-1.15
MaineAE1.781.7818.5218.52-1.12-1.12
ProvidenceBE1.771.7766.6766.670.590.59
LSUSEC1.771.7761.2961.290.400.40
BrownIvy1.691.6953.8553.850.130.13
McNeese St.Slnd1.661.6626.9226.92-0.77-0.77
SMUAmer1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.76-0.76
ArizonaP121.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
DetroitHorz1.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
UNC AshevilleBSth1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.280.2868.7568.750.100.10
VermontAE0.270.2766.6766.670.090.09
BinghamtonAE0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
AlbanyAE0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
UMBCAE0.230.2327.5927.59-0.10-0.10
HartfordAE0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
NJITind0.200.2036.0036.00-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
YaleIvy0.140.1451.8551.850.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
HarvardIvy0.110.1186.2186.210.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.08-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.030.03
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00