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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:1
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:3
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:16-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-312.30.03%
22-417.00.17%
21-524.90.79%
20-633.32.45%
19-746.06.34%
18-857.610.65%
17-972.914.53%
16-1088.717.71%
15-11106.017.48%
14-12123.814.18%
13-13142.18.66%
12-14162.44.24%
11-15184.91.89%
10-16204.40.56%
9-17226.90.24%
8-18252.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UMass Lowell (250.1)AEH72-56W100%0.0
11-22Nebraska (80.9)B10H66-62W100%0.0
11-27Kansas (29.0)B12N0-029%-6.6
12-6Southern Miss (156.5)CUSAA0-057%2.0
12-10Providence (31.2)BEA0-021%-9.8
12-13Delaware St. (276.9)MEACH0-093%17.6
12-20Detroit (111.7)HorzH0-067%5.2
12-31Brown (251.5)IvyH0-088%14.0
1-3Saint Louis (170.3)A10A0-056%1.9
1-7Fordham (257.3)A10H0-088%14.4
1-10Duquesne (146.7)A10A0-049%-0.3
1-13VCU (23.7)A10H0-039%-3.2
1-17Massachusetts (41.1)A10A0-028%-7.2
1-22La Salle (98.1)A10H0-067%5.1
1-25St. Bonaventure (145.7)A10H0-072%6.8
1-28Fordham (257.3)A10A0-073%7.2
1-31George Washington (70.1)A10H0-048%-0.7
2-8Richmond (62.2)A10A0-029%-6.7
2-11Saint Joseph's (187.2)A10A0-063%4.1
2-14Saint Louis (170.3)A10H0-077%9.0
2-18Massachusetts (41.1)A10H0-050%0.0
2-21George Mason (226.8)A10A0-070%6.4
2-25Davidson (76.9)A10H0-055%1.5
2-28La Salle (98.1)A10A0-043%-2.0
3-3Dayton (56.0)A10A0-026%-7.7
3-7Saint Joseph's (187.2)A10H0-083%11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1030.6326.18100.0059.0530.634.74
MassachusettsA100.004.6383.3366.980.001.57
FordhamA102.504.620.0026.51-2.50-2.17
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.6060.0040.390.00-0.88
La SalleA100.004.60100.0057.440.000.68
Saint LouisA100.004.5075.0047.340.00-0.24
DaytonA100.002.7575.0071.050.001.16
DuquesneA100.002.71100.0054.460.000.24
St. BonaventureA100.002.7075.0052.940.000.16
VCUA100.002.6880.0073.490.001.26
George MasonA100.002.6720.0021.44-0.00-1.53
RichmondA100.002.6450.0063.810.000.73
George WashingtonA100.002.6475.0069.880.001.05
DavidsonA100.002.6466.6762.490.000.66
UMass LowellAE25.002.0675.0043.6812.50-0.26
ProvidenceBE0.002.02100.0066.270.000.66
BrownIvy0.001.9920.0038.97-0.00-0.44
Delaware St.MEAC0.001.9225.0040.83-0.00-0.35
DetroitHorz0.001.9260.0059.300.000.36
KansasB120.001.9266.6758.870.000.34
NebraskaB1025.001.92100.0055.2725.000.20
Southern MissCUSA0.001.9266.6751.160.000.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.2714.2931.08-0.00-0.10
PennIvy0.000.230.0023.29-0.00-0.12
VillanovaBE0.000.22100.0077.100.000.12
VermontAE0.000.2050.0065.840.000.06
TempleAmer0.000.1960.0050.320.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.1783.3348.410.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1725.0045.71-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1625.0048.57-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1633.3361.50-0.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1620.0036.68-0.00-0.04
VirginiaACC0.000.16100.0073.600.000.08
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1640.0038.08-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.14100.0071.860.000.06
CornellIvy0.000.1442.8640.94-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.140.0036.14-0.00-0.04
NJITind2.500.1420.0029.79-1.50-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.130.0035.63-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0022.97-0.00-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1380.0074.520.000.06
HarvardIvy0.000.1366.6773.440.000.06
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0058.520.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1380.0079.380.000.08
Florida St.ACC0.000.1340.0038.71-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1380.0066.690.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1060.0067.390.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0065.110.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.1033.3345.71-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1025.0037.52-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.000.100.0027.57-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1075.0043.690.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1050.0032.470.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0039.18-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1025.0041.79-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1050.0063.440.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.1050.0065.760.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1080.0070.280.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0027.68-0.00-0.04
OklahomaB120.000.1075.0064.910.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.10100.0069.720.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0084.900.000.07
Wright St.Horz0.000.1066.6756.860.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.1066.6759.500.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1020.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1020.0031.23-0.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.1060.0055.990.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1025.0049.12-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.1060.0063.060.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.100.0051.96-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0060.970.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1050.0052.730.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1066.6726.420.00-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.10100.0061.350.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0077.900.000.05
Seton HallBE0.000.10100.0064.150.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0983.3369.220.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0071.830.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6749.610.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0725.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0072.490.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3329.25-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0720.0043.55-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0775.0038.820.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0775.0064.980.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0780.0051.800.000.00
IowaB100.000.0766.6765.830.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0750.0055.290.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0750.0052.150.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0783.3339.590.00-0.01
Ohio St.B102.500.07100.0074.752.500.03
Sacred HeartNEC2.500.0725.0034.11-1.25-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0086.460.000.05
MaineAE0.000.070.0019.27-0.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0034.56-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0740.0053.46-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0771.4357.180.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0775.0066.610.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0733.3330.18-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0760.0057.880.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0750.0024.520.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0766.6740.010.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0725.0053.31-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.07100.0070.110.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.64-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0019.74-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0077.520.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0716.6745.77-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0775.0062.480.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0750.0046.630.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0045.580.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0716.6726.44-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0766.6751.430.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0061.400.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0034.53-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3354.73-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0740.0047.86-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.120.000.01
TexasB120.000.07100.0080.270.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0733.3350.63-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0775.0045.520.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0775.0055.290.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.07100.0053.810.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0750.0040.550.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0720.0034.26-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0061.080.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0079.750.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0061.670.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.070.000.05
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.24-0.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0666.6751.600.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0039.02-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.810.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3339.40-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.520.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0049.14-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0031.26-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0033.15-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.700.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.990.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0071.480.000.03
BYUWCC0.000.0650.0067.000.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.810.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0480.0058.430.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0450.0042.970.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0460.0067.690.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0450.0044.930.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0450.0047.310.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0433.3330.44-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.040.0043.61-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0030.92-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0333.3346.61-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd3.120.030.0022.25-3.12-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.79-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0066.080.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.110.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0375.0072.040.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.01-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum3.120.0350.0050.040.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0375.0067.420.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun3.120.0325.0039.50-1.56-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.600.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0320.0038.27-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0046.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0030.90-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.110.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.180.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.42-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0066.110.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0360.0060.080.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0022.02-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.87-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0066.35-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.45-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0046.840.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.60-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0375.0055.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0056.00-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.450.000.02
VMISC0.000.0325.0036.44-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.51-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.260.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0340.0026.51-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0380.0076.610.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.830.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.980.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.230.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0079.800.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0320.0029.93-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0065.430.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6755.570.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0325.0046.64-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.110.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00