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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Rhode Island

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:119.0
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:86
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15119.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Rhode Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13American (231.0)PatH65-42W100%0.0
11-17Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH55-58L0%0.0
11-21Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH73-45W100%0.0
11-24TCU (174.0)B12N66-60W100%0.0
11-25Maryland (14.0)B10N86-63L0%0.0
11-29Rider (242.0)MAACH82-57W100%0.0
12-2Holy Cross (248.0)PatH74-56W100%0.0
12-5Providence (40.0)BEH72-74L0%0.0
12-8Houston (87.0)AmerH67-57W100%0.0
12-13Nebraska (165.0)B10A70-67L0%0.0
12-19Iona (77.0)MAACH79-74W100%0.0
12-22Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA71-65L0%0.0
12-30Brown (312.0)IvyA85-88W100%0.0
1-2Saint Louis (206.0)A10H85-57W100%0.0
1-5Richmond (121.0)A10H77-65W100%0.0
1-10Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A72-67L0%0.0
1-13St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A69-64L0%0.0
1-16La Salle (232.0)A10H73-62W100%0.0
1-22George Washington (68.0)A10A62-58L0%0.0
1-27Fordham (176.0)A10H79-63W100%0.0
1-30Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H55-64L0%0.0
2-2Massachusetts (171.0)A10A61-56L0%0.0
2-6La Salle (232.0)A10A62-79W100%0.0
2-9George Mason (201.0)A10H81-63W100%0.0
2-12Dayton (21.0)A10H66-68L0%0.0
2-16VCU (37.0)A10A83-67L0%0.0
2-20Duquesne (162.0)A10H77-74W100%0.0
2-23Davidson (64.0)A10A65-54L0%0.0
2-27Dayton (21.0)A10A66-75W100%0.0
3-3Massachusetts (171.0)A10H68-50W100%0.0
3-5Fordham (176.0)A10A64-61L0%0.0
3-10Massachusetts (171.0)A10N62-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Rhode Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Rhode Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Rhode Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Rhode IslandA1026.1426.1450.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA105.315.3141.3841.38-0.92-0.92
Saint Joseph'sA103.873.8778.1278.122.182.18
La SalleA103.843.8428.5728.57-1.65-1.65
FordhamA103.763.7655.5655.560.420.42
DaytonA103.743.7480.0080.002.252.25
VCUA102.322.3269.7069.700.920.92
RichmondA102.282.2851.6151.610.070.07
St. BonaventureA102.252.2572.4172.411.011.01
DavidsonA102.232.2360.0060.000.450.45
DuquesneA102.212.2150.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA102.202.2035.4835.48-0.64-0.64
George WashingtonA102.202.2068.7568.750.830.83
George MasonA102.152.1535.4835.48-0.63-0.63
RiderMAAC1.741.7440.6240.62-0.33-0.33
ProvidenceBE1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
Cleveland St.Horz1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
MarylandB101.661.6674.1974.190.800.80
Old DominionCUSA1.661.6661.7661.760.390.39
Holy CrossPat1.641.6443.7543.75-0.21-0.21
ValparaisoHorz1.641.6479.3179.310.960.96
IonaMAAC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
AmericanPat1.631.6340.0040.00-0.33-0.33
NebraskaB101.611.6145.4545.45-0.15-0.15
BrownIvy1.611.6126.9226.92-0.74-0.74
HoustonAmer1.561.5673.3373.330.730.73
TCUB121.561.5637.5037.50-0.39-0.39
NiagaraMAAC0.220.2221.8821.88-0.12-0.12
ColgatePat0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.190.1979.4179.410.110.11
VillanovaBE0.190.1985.2985.290.140.14
PennIvy0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
UCFAmer0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
MaristMAAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Loyola MDPat0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
LehighPat0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ArmyPat0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
Penn St.B100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
PurdueB100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
RutgersB100.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
MaineAE0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
XavierBE0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0422.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0470.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02