Virginia Commonwealth

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	77.2
Current RPI:	85
Expected SOS:	201
Current SOS:	229
Current Record:	20-5
Expected Record:	24-7
Current Conf Record:	11-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	29.95%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	83
Expected OOC SOS:	199

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-5	58.1	10.35%
25-6	67.7	29.10%
24-7	79.1	35.89%
23-8	90.9	19.10%
22-9	102.6	5.05%
21-10	114.4	0.50%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Commonwealth.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	63-57	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Seton Hall (53.1)	BE	N	69-54	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	N	60-73	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	N	69-64	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	45-68	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Alabama (30.4)	SEC	A	72-64	L	0%	0.0
11-30	South Florida (96.1)	BE	H	69-46	W	100%	0.0
12-4	George Washington (196.4)	A10	N	60-75	W	100%	0.0
12-9	Richmond (135.3)	A10	H	73-51	W	100%	0.0
12-17	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	H	87-64	W	100%	0.0
12-20	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	68-49	W	100%	0.0
12-22	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	68-80	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	75-76	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	A	63-80	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	H	53-55	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	A	64-58	L	0%	0.0
1-12	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	H	65-45	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Delaware (183.1)	CAA	A	55-68	W	100%	0.0
1-19	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	H	69-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	H	61-48	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	H	61-49	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	42-67	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Georgia St. (125.1)	CAA	A	58-59	W	100%	0.0
2-1	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	A	78-87	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	59-56	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Towson (304.8)	CAA	H	0-0		99%	28.1
2-11	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	A	0-0		55%	1.4
2-14	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	A	0-0		51%	0.1
2-17	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	H	0-0		63%	3.5
2-22	NC Wilmington (207.8)	CAA	A	0-0		78%	8.5
2-25	George Mason (94.6)	CAA	H	0-0		74%	6.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Commonwealth's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Virginia Commonwealth's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia Commonwealth.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	26.40	26.26	80.67	78.92	16.20	15.19
Old Dominion	CAA	2.58	4.00	62.50	60.76	0.65	0.86
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.66	3.94	40.91	37.97	-0.48	-0.95
William & Mary	CAA	4.50	3.92	13.64	14.40	-3.27	-2.79
George Mason	CAA	0.66	3.92	76.00	74.89	0.34	1.95
Towson	CAA	2.58	3.89	4.17	5.60	-2.37	-3.46
Georgia St.	CAA	4.50	3.87	68.18	71.10	1.64	1.63
Hofstra	CAA	4.46	3.87	34.78	37.83	-1.36	-0.94
Western Kentucky	SB	4.00	3.23	38.10	37.03	-0.95	-0.84
James Madison	CAA	2.66	2.44	41.67	41.52	-0.44	-0.41
Drexel	CAA	2.67	2.39	78.26	77.35	1.51	1.31
Delaware	CAA	2.54	2.39	50.00	52.46	0.00	0.12
Northeastern	CAA	2.66	2.38	50.00	50.29	0.00	0.01
Richmond	A10	2.21	1.80	52.17	50.10	0.10	0.00
George Washington	A10	2.13	1.72	36.36	33.19	-0.58	-0.58
South Florida	BE	2.08	1.69	57.14	50.28	0.30	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	2.08	1.69	36.36	34.66	-0.57	-0.52
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	1.66	62.50	62.33	0.01	0.41
Alabama	SEC	2.04	1.64	66.67	68.03	0.68	0.59
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.05	1.64	36.36	40.13	-0.56	-0.32
Seton Hall	BE	2.05	1.64	63.64	62.48	0.56	0.41
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.04	1.64	22.73	23.57	-1.11	-0.87
UAB	CUSA	2.04	1.64	42.86	41.24	-0.29	-0.29
Akron	MAC	2.00	1.61	71.43	70.25	0.86	0.65
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.30	0.30	36.36	39.72	-0.08	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.34	0.24	27.27	27.21	-0.15	-0.11
Rhode Island	A10	0.29	0.24	20.83	20.60	-0.17	-0.14
Florida International	SB	0.26	0.22	33.33	37.16	-0.09	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.26	0.22	62.50	62.49	0.06	0.05
La Salle	A10	0.21	0.21	70.83	68.82	0.09	0.08
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.21	68.00	69.07	0.04	0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.19	83.33	84.76	0.09	0.13
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.16	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.16	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.16	60.00	62.49	0.03	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.16	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.08
Furman	SC	0.17	0.14	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.13	0.14	28.57	30.17	-0.06	-0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.18	0.14	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.14	34.78	32.06	-0.04	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.18	0.14	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.18	0.14	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.14	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.14	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.14	24.00	24.86	-0.07	-0.07
St. John's	BE	0.17	0.14	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.17	0.13	18.18	22.22	-0.11	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.04	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.13	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.17	0.13	81.82	80.43	0.11	0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.16	0.13	70.83	71.05	0.07	0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.13	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.13	79.17	80.10	0.12	0.08
Davidson	SC	0.13	0.11	76.19	76.76	0.07	0.06
Illinois St.	MVC	0.04	0.11	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.11	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.05
Samford	SC	0.13	0.11	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.13	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.08	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.13	0.11	40.00	41.30	-0.03	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.04	0.11	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.11	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.11	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.07
Boston University	AE	0.17	0.11	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.11	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.04	0.11	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.11	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.11	71.43	69.05	0.06	0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.11	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.11	30.00	34.15	-0.05	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.09	0.11	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.11	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.11	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.11	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.11	73.91	75.00	0.04	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.11	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.11	91.30	87.18	0.10	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.11	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.04	0.11	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.08	100.00	94.55	0.13	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.08	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.08	85.71	82.18	0.06	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.08	38.10	40.81	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.08	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.04	0.08	68.00	70.03	0.01	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.08	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.08	9.52	11.44	-0.10	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.08	17.65	27.10	-0.09	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.08	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.13	0.08	73.91	74.91	0.06	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.08	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.04	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.08	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.01
Temple	A10	0.09	0.08	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.13	0.08	68.18	63.99	0.05	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.08	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.08	19.05	22.37	-0.08	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.08	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.08	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.08	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.07
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.08	30.43	29.50	-0.05	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.08	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.08	82.61	84.57	0.08	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.08	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.08	0.00	4.02	-0.12	-0.07
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.08	78.26	78.39	0.05	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.08	95.83	92.57	0.08	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.04	0.08	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.04	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.04	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.04	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.09	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.04	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.06	8.70	12.13	-0.07	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.09	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.07	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.09	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.04	0.06	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.04	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.05	86.36	83.09	0.06	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.04	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.05	17.39	22.00	-0.06	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.05	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.05	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.05	33.33	37.25	-0.03	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.05	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.04	0.05	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.05	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.08	0.05	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.04	0.05	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.05	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.05	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.05	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.05	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.05	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.05	56.52	54.22	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.05	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.04	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.05	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.05	21.74	21.70	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.05	10.00	14.93	-0.07	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.05	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.05	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.05	69.57	66.54	0.03	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.05	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.05	77.27	77.67	0.02	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.00	0.05	60.00	60.42	0.00	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.05	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.00	0.05	27.27	23.80	-0.00	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.05	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.05	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.04	0.05	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.05	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.00	0.05	35.00	38.58	-0.00	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.04	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.04	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.04	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.00	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.00	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.04	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.00	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.00	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.04	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.04	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.04	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.04	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.03	86.96	83.16	0.03	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.00	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.00	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.00	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.04	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.02	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.04	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.04	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00