Pennsylvania

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	98.0
Current RPI:	98
Expected SOS:	105
Current SOS:	105
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	11-3
Expected Conf Record:	11-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	8-9
Expected OOC Record:	8-9
Expected OOC RPI:	129
Expected OOC SOS:	51

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	98.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pennsylvania.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	A	45-59	W	100%
11-14	Temple (19.0)	A10	H	67-73	L	0%
11-17	Rider (199.0)	MAAC	A	72-78	W	100%
11-19	Robert Morris (99.0)	NEC	H	66-60	W	100%
11-22	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	H	65-71	L	0%
11-25	Pittsburgh (96.0)	BE	H	58-78	L	0%
11-26	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	58-60	L	0%
11-29	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	75-72	W	100%
12-3	Villanova (121.0)	BE	A	73-65	L	0%
12-7	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	69-60	W	100%
12-10	UCLA (117.0)	P12	N	77-73	L	0%
12-23	Marist (223.0)	MAAC	H	84-71	W	100%
12-29	Davidson (66.0)	SC	A	75-70	L	0%
1-1	Duke (5.0)	ACC	A	85-55	L	0%
1-4	Lafayette (195.0)	Pat	A	73-78	W	100%
1-10	La Salle (90.0)	A10	H	57-68	L	0%
1-13	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	A	64-66	W	100%
1-14	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	A	52-64	W	100%
1-21	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	H	84-80	W	100%
1-30	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	H	82-67	W	100%
2-3	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	A	60-53	L	0%
2-4	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	48-65	W	100%
2-10	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	H	50-56	L	0%
2-11	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	H	58-55	W	100%
2-17	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	73-66	W	100%
2-18	Columbia (186.0)	Ivy	H	61-59	W	100%
2-24	Dartmouth (328.0)	Ivy	A	54-57	W	100%
2-25	Harvard (35.0)	Ivy	A	54-55	W	100%
3-2	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	H	54-43	W	100%
3-3	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	H	68-47	W	100%
3-6	Princeton (87.0)	Ivy	A	62-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pennsylvania's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pennsylvania's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pennsylvania.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pennsylvania	Ivy	26.23	26.23	58.94	58.94	4.69	4.69
Princeton	Ivy	3.99	3.99	61.54	61.54	0.92	0.92
Columbia	Ivy	3.99	3.99	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	3.95	3.95	25.00	25.00	-1.97	-1.97
Harvard	Ivy	3.94	3.94	88.89	88.89	3.07	3.07
Cornell	Ivy	3.94	3.94	44.00	44.00	-0.47	-0.47
Dartmouth	Ivy	3.92	3.92	14.81	14.81	-2.76	-2.76
Yale	Ivy	3.91	3.91	66.67	66.67	1.30	1.30
Rider	MAAC	1.90	1.90	41.94	41.94	-0.31	-0.31
La Salle	A10	1.87	1.87	62.50	62.50	0.47	0.47
Manhattan	MAAC	1.83	1.83	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Lafayette	Pat	1.80	1.80	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Delaware	CAA	1.80	1.80	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
Temple	A10	1.79	1.79	76.67	76.67	0.95	0.95
Marist	MAAC	1.77	1.77	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.77	1.77	62.50	62.50	0.44	0.44
Wagner	NEC	1.77	1.77	80.00	80.00	1.06	1.06
Robert Morris	NEC	1.76	1.76	72.73	72.73	0.80	0.80
Villanova	BE	1.74	1.74	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Pittsburgh	BE	1.74	1.74	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	1.71	1.71	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
Duke	ACC	1.66	1.66	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.64	1.64	13.79	13.79	-1.19	-1.19
Davidson	SC	1.64	1.64	76.67	76.67	0.87	0.87
UCLA	P12	1.61	1.61	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Monmouth	NEC	0.31	0.31	37.50	37.50	-0.08	-0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.31	0.31	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.30	0.30	71.88	71.88	0.13	0.13
American	Pat	0.30	0.30	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.29	0.29	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.27	0.27	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	6.67	6.67	-0.23	-0.23
Boston University	AE	0.27	0.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.25	0.25	67.65	67.65	0.09	0.09
Siena	MAAC	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.22	0.22	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Hartford	AE	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Rhode Island	A10	0.22	0.22	22.58	22.58	-0.12	-0.12
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.21	81.82	81.82	0.13	0.13
Towson	CAA	0.20	0.20	3.12	3.12	-0.19	-0.19
Canisius	MAAC	0.20	0.20	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.20	0.20	16.13	16.13	-0.14	-0.14
Stony Brook	AE	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Colgate	Pat	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.18	10.34	10.34	-0.15	-0.15
Long Island	NEC	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
George Washington	A10	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.18	0.18	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	6.45	6.45	-0.14	-0.14
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
St. John's	BE	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	18.75	18.75	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00