Pennsylvania

Conference:	Ivy
Expected RPI:	280.0
Current RPI:	280
Expected SOS:	204
Current SOS:	204
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	6-8
Expected Conf Record:	6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	3-14
Expected OOC Record:	3-14
Expected OOC RPI:	288
Expected OOC SOS:	177

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	280.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pennsylvania.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	80-75	W	100%
11-12	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	N	84-69	L	0%
11-13	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	N	53-62	L	0%
11-17	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	59-61	L	0%
11-19	Fordham (228.0)	A10	N	68-70	L	0%
11-20	Lehigh (107.0)	Pat	A	73-66	L	0%
11-28	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	65-54	W	100%
12-1	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	58-47	L	0%
12-8	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	55-68	L	0%
12-21	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	83-60	L	0%
12-29	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	68-63	L	0%
1-2	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	70-57	L	0%
1-5	La Salle (46.0)	A10	A	74-57	L	0%
1-8	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	83-85	L	0%
1-12	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	A	65-53	L	0%
1-17	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	53-54	W	100%
1-19	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	A	79-59	L	0%
1-23	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	76-69	L	0%
2-1	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	62-58	W	100%
2-2	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	69-71	L	0%
2-8	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	59-68	L	0%
2-9	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	71-48	W	100%
2-15	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	73-54	L	0%
2-16	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	57-67	W	100%
2-22	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	A	71-79	W	100%
2-23	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	A	58-41	L	0%
3-1	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	H	64-69	L	0%
3-2	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	75-72	W	100%
3-8	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	A	64-66	W	100%
3-9	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	A	79-65	L	0%
3-12	Princeton (124.0)	Ivy	H	58-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pennsylvania's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Pennsylvania's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Pennsylvania.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Pennsylvania	Ivy	26.31	26.31	30.07	30.07	-10.49	-10.49
Princeton	Ivy	4.03	4.03	56.00	56.00	0.48	0.48
Harvard	Ivy	3.98	3.98	68.00	68.00	1.43	1.43
Cornell	Ivy	3.97	3.97	39.29	39.29	-0.85	-0.85
Yale	Ivy	3.96	3.96	37.04	37.04	-1.03	-1.03
Brown	Ivy	3.95	3.95	48.00	48.00	-0.16	-0.16
Columbia	Ivy	3.95	3.95	37.50	37.50	-0.99	-0.99
Dartmouth	Ivy	3.93	3.93	28.00	28.00	-1.73	-1.73
Delaware	CAA	3.38	3.38	54.84	54.84	0.33	0.33
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.93	1.93	56.67	56.67	0.26	0.26
Fordham	A10	1.91	1.91	20.00	20.00	-1.15	-1.15
La Salle	A10	1.84	1.84	68.97	68.97	0.70	0.70
Lafayette	Pat	1.84	1.84	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Villanova	BE	1.83	1.83	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
Drexel	CAA	1.82	1.82	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Temple	A10	1.82	1.82	70.97	70.97	0.76	0.76
Binghamton	AE	1.78	1.78	7.14	7.14	-1.53	-1.53
Butler	A10	1.74	1.74	75.00	75.00	0.87	0.87
Lehigh	Pat	1.74	1.74	67.86	67.86	0.62	0.62
Fairfield	MAAC	1.72	1.72	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Wagner	NEC	1.70	1.70	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.67	1.67	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	1.64	1.64	30.00	30.00	-0.66	-0.66
Bucknell	Pat	0.42	0.42	84.38	84.38	0.29	0.29
Army	Pat	0.37	0.37	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.37	0.37	34.38	34.38	-0.11	-0.11
Holy Cross	Pat	0.37	0.37	40.00	40.00	-0.07	-0.07
New Hampshire	AE	0.34	0.34	28.57	28.57	-0.15	-0.15
Vermont	AE	0.31	0.31	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Bryant	NEC	0.28	0.28	63.33	63.33	0.08	0.08
American	Pat	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Northeastern	CAA	0.24	0.24	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.23	0.23	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.22	0.22	19.35	19.35	-0.14	-0.14
Boston University	AE	0.22	0.22	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.22	0.22	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Hartford	AE	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Elon	SC	0.21	0.21	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.20	0.20	58.82	58.82	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.19	0.19	76.67	76.67	0.10	0.10
Long Island	NEC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.19	0.19	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.18	0.18	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.18	0.18	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.12	-0.12
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.16	0.16	74.29	74.29	0.08	0.08
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.09	0.09	18.18	18.18	-0.06	-0.06
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01