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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Pennsylvania

Conference:Ivy
Expected RPI:280.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:204
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:6-8
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:3-14
Expected OOC Record:3-14
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:177



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22280.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pennsylvania.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9MD Baltimore County (298.0)AEH80-75W100%0.0
11-12Delaware (141.0)CAAN84-69L0%0.0
11-13Fairfield (173.0)MAACN53-62L0%0.0
11-17Drexel (206.0)CAAH59-61L0%0.0
11-19Fordham (228.0)A10N68-70L0%0.0
11-20Lehigh (107.0)PatA73-66L0%0.0
11-28Binghamton (336.0)AEH65-54W100%0.0
12-1Penn St. (186.0)B10A58-47L0%0.0
12-8Villanova (52.0)BEH55-68L0%0.0
12-21Delaware (141.0)CAAA83-60L0%0.0
12-29Wagner (126.0)NECA68-63L0%0.0
1-2Butler (22.0)A10A70-57L0%0.0
1-5La Salle (46.0)A10A74-57L0%0.0
1-8Lafayette (153.0)PatH83-85L0%0.0
1-12Princeton (124.0)IvyA65-53L0%0.0
1-17NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCA53-54W100%0.0
1-19Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A79-59L0%0.0
1-23Temple (42.0)A10A76-69L0%0.0
2-1Columbia (273.0)IvyH62-58W100%0.0
2-2Cornell (248.0)IvyH69-71L0%0.0
2-8Yale (198.0)IvyH59-68L0%0.0
2-9Brown (241.0)IvyH71-48W100%0.0
2-15Harvard (93.0)IvyA73-54L0%0.0
2-16Dartmouth (294.0)IvyA57-67W100%0.0
2-22Cornell (248.0)IvyA71-79W100%0.0
2-23Columbia (273.0)IvyA58-41L0%0.0
3-1Dartmouth (294.0)IvyH64-69L0%0.0
3-2Harvard (93.0)IvyH75-72W100%0.0
3-8Brown (241.0)IvyA64-66W100%0.0
3-9Yale (198.0)IvyA79-65L0%0.0
3-12Princeton (124.0)IvyH58-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Pennsylvania's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Pennsylvania's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Pennsylvania.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
PennsylvaniaIvy26.3126.3130.0730.07-10.49-10.49
PrincetonIvy4.034.0356.0056.000.480.48
HarvardIvy3.983.9868.0068.001.431.43
CornellIvy3.973.9739.2939.29-0.85-0.85
YaleIvy3.963.9637.0437.04-1.03-1.03
BrownIvy3.953.9548.0048.00-0.16-0.16
ColumbiaIvy3.953.9537.5037.50-0.99-0.99
DartmouthIvy3.933.9328.0028.00-1.73-1.73
DelawareCAA3.383.3854.8454.840.330.33
Saint Joseph'sA101.931.9356.6756.670.260.26
FordhamA101.911.9120.0020.00-1.15-1.15
La SalleA101.841.8468.9768.970.700.70
LafayettePat1.841.8453.1253.120.110.11
VillanovaBE1.831.8358.0658.060.300.30
DrexelCAA1.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
TempleA101.821.8270.9770.970.760.76
BinghamtonAE1.781.787.147.14-1.53-1.53
ButlerA101.741.7475.0075.000.870.87
LehighPat1.741.7467.8667.860.620.62
FairfieldMAAC1.721.7254.5554.550.160.16
WagnerNEC1.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
MD Baltimore CountyAE1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B101.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
BucknellPat0.420.4284.3884.380.290.29
ArmyPat0.370.3750.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.370.3734.3834.38-0.11-0.11
Holy CrossPat0.370.3740.0040.00-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.340.3428.5728.57-0.15-0.15
VermontAE0.310.3165.6265.620.100.10
BryantNEC0.280.2863.3363.330.080.08
AmericanPat0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
RiderMAAC0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
MaineAE0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.220.2219.3519.35-0.14-0.14
Boston UniversityAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.220.2231.0331.03-0.08-0.08
ManhattanMAAC0.220.2243.7543.75-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
HartfordAE0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
ElonSC0.210.2163.3363.330.050.05
XavierA100.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
George MasonCAA0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.200.2058.8258.820.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.190.1976.6776.670.100.10
Long IslandNEC0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.190.1927.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Virginia CommonwealthA100.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
St. BonaventureA100.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.180.1881.8281.820.110.11
Old DominionCAA0.170.1716.6716.67-0.12-0.12
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
SyracuseBE0.160.1674.2974.290.080.08
St. Francis PANEC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
MonmouthNEC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
CharlotteA100.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
PittsburghBE0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
DaytonA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1422.5822.58-0.07-0.07
NorthwesternB100.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
RichmondA100.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
DukeACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
NC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
ConnecticutBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
RiceCUSA0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Notre DameBE0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MaristMAAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
WisconsinB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.090.0918.1818.18-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
RutgersBE0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IndianaB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
DePaulBE0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Seton HallBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
IowaB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
South FloridaBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North TexasSB0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
KansasB120.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01