Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Here are Forecasts of what the RPI/Records will be on Monday, Feb. 1 for all of the BracketBuster teams.

How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

New! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated at least weekly)

Through games of Jan 31, 2010.

Home Teams:

	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50	51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
15	15.0	Northern Iowa	MVC	0.6313	0.5348	92	19-2	19-2	0-0	1-1	5-0	9-1	4-0	9-1	46	218	15	0.0	NaN
18	18.0	Butler	Horz	0.6300	0.5613	47	18-4	18-4	1-1	1-2	1-1	12-0	3-0	7-4	27	7	18	0.0	NaN
55	55.0	Utah St.	WAC	0.5799	0.5242	116	15-6	15-6	1-0	0-1	3-3	4-2	7-0	9-4	78	142	55	0.0	NaN
56	56.0	Northeastern	CAA	0.5784	0.5603	49	14-8	14-8	0-1	1-2	4-1	2-4	7-0	5-6	70	10	56	0.0	NaN
60	60.0	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.5751	0.5126	137	15-5	15-5	1-0	2-1	3-3	1-2	9-0	8-1	18	93	60	0.0	NaN
70	70.0	Kent St.	MAC	0.5686	0.5371	87	13-7	13-7	0-2	1-0	1-2	7-3	4-0	8-5	53	36	70	0.0	NaN
83	83.0	Missouri St.	MVC	0.5557	0.5150	131	15-7	15-7	0-2	0-1	2-0	5-4	8-0	10-1	48	254	83	0.0	NaN
86	86.0	Iona	MAAC	0.5535	0.4990	168	16-6	16-6	0-0	0-4	1-0	7-2	8-0	8-3	88	219	86	0.0	NaN
92	92.0	Murray St.	OVC	0.5495	0.4296	317	18-3	18-3	0-1	0-0	0-1	5-1	13-0	5-3	100	238	92	0.0	NaN
96	96.0	Pacific	BW	0.5474	0.4839	202	14-6	14-6	0-1	1-2	1-0	2-2	10-1	7-5	111	154	96	0.0	NaN
105	105.0	George Mason	CAA	0.5392	0.4906	182	15-7	15-7	0-2	1-1	0-1	3-2	11-1	5-6	210	167	105	0.0	NaN
107	107.0	Bradley	MVC	0.5373	0.5620	45	10-11	10-11	0-2	0-2	4-2	2-5	4-0	5-5	132	59	107	0.0	NaN
110	110.0	Creighton	MVC	0.5356	0.5514	66	11-11	11-11	0-3	1-2	1-2	4-4	5-0	5-6	198	133	110	0.0	NaN
117	117.0	Austin Peay	OVC	0.5303	0.5310	100	11-10	11-10	0-2	0-1	0-1	5-6	6-0	4-6	89	20	117	0.0	NaN
118	118.0	Illinois St.	MVC	0.5286	0.4788	217	15-7	15-7	0-1	1-1	0-1	6-4	8-0	9-2	171	340	118	0.0	NaN
124	124.0	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.5239	0.5016	160	13-9	13-9	1-2	0-1	1-1	4-5	7-0	6-4	121	190	124	0.0	NaN
143	143.0	St. Peter's	MAAC	0.5137	0.4818	206	13-9	13-9	0-0	0-2	1-1	6-2	6-4	5-5	229	298	143	0.0	NaN
147	147.0	Southern Illinois	MVC	0.5111	0.5039	157	11-9	11-9	0-1	0-2	1-1	4-5	6-0	7-2	113	312	147	0.0	NaN
149	149.0	Cleveland St.	Horz	0.5106	0.5642	40	8-12	8-12	0-4	0-2	1-1	3-5	4-0	2-8	174	2	149	0.0	NaN
151	151.0	Ohio	MAC	0.5098	0.5242	117	10-10	10-10	0-1	0-0	0-3	5-6	5-0	8-5	96	104	151	0.0	NaN
152	152.0	Miami OH	MAC	0.5085	0.5625	44	8-13	8-13	0-4	0-2	1-1	4-5	3-1	3-10	202	26	152	0.0	NaN
154	154.0	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.5082	0.4595	260	13-8	13-8	0-1	0-1	0-1	3-3	10-2	6-4	140	227	154	0.0	NaN
155	155.0	Bowling Green	MAC	0.5080	0.4951	173	9-9	9-9	0-2	0-0	1-0	3-7	5-0	6-5	151	244	155	0.0	NaN
160	160.0	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.5048	0.4946	175	11-10	11-10	0-3	0-0	0-2	5-5	6-0	6-4	131	259	160	0.0	NaN
164	164.0	Appalachian St.	SC	0.5040	0.4827	205	10-9	10-9	0-0	0-2	2-0	4-3	4-4	4-5	120	88	164	0.0	NaN
168	168.0	Detroit	Horz	0.5032	0.4695	243	13-8	13-8	0-2	0-0	0-0	9-4	4-2	6-4	187	293	168	0.0	NaN
174	174.0	Hofstra	CAA	0.4983	0.5225	119	10-12	10-12	0-1	0-5	0-4	2-4	8-0	6-5	122	112	174	0.0	NaN
175	175.0	Vermont	AE	0.4982	0.4278	320	15-8	15-8	0-0	0-1	0-1	6-2	9-4	9-5	158	317	175	0.0	NaN
179	179.0	Radford	BSth	0.4941	0.4818	207	9-10	9-10	0-2	0-2	0-1	3-1	6-5	2-6	178	11	179	0.0	NaN
180	180.0	Montana St.	BSky	0.4937	0.4814	211	9-10	9-10	0-0	0-0	0-3	4-4	5-3	3-6	232	250	180	0.0	NaN
182	182.0	Idaho	WAC	0.4917	0.5005	163	8-10	8-10	0-0	0-0	1-6	2-1	5-3	6-4	119	265	182	0.0	NaN
183	183.0	Fresno St.	WAC	0.4912	0.5142	134	10-12	10-12	0-1	0-1	1-4	4-2	5-4	6-7	206	196	183	0.0	NaN
185	185.0	Central Michigan	MAC	0.4905	0.4603	259	9-9	9-9	0-1	0-0	1-0	2-6	6-2	4-7	231	255	185	0.0	NaN
188	188.0	Ball St.	MAC	0.4877	0.4817	209	10-9	10-9	0-3	0-1	1-0	5-2	4-3	5-6	218	193	188	0.0	NaN
191	191.0	Canisius	MAAC	0.4865	0.4788	218	11-11	11-11	0-0	0-1	1-0	4-7	6-3	5-6	219	285	191	0.0	NaN
202	202.0	Loyola MD	MAAC	0.4762	0.4715	234	10-12	10-12	0-1	0-2	0-1	3-7	7-1	7-3	130	322	202	0.0	NaN
206	206.0	Boise St.	WAC	0.4749	0.4717	232	10-11	10-11	0-0	0-0	0-5	4-5	6-1	8-4	184	325	206	0.0	NaN
210	210.0	Delaware	CAA	0.4730	0.5440	80	6-16	6-16	0-2	0-4	0-4	3-3	3-4	4-7	161	46	210	0.0	NaN
211	211.0	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.4727	0.4724	229	8-10	8-10	0-0	0-1	1-3	2-3	5-3	4-6	199	194	211	0.0	NaN
221	221.0	Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.4666	0.4590	261	9-11	9-11	0-0	0-0	0-2	2-8	7-1	4-4	237	309	221	0.0	NaN
223	223.0	Manhattan	MAAC	0.4660	0.5091	143	7-15	7-15	0-1	0-3	0-2	3-9	4-1	5-5	175	224	223	0.0	NaN
229	229.0	Hawaii	WAC	0.4634	0.5337	95	8-13	8-13	0-2	0-2	1-4	1-4	6-1	6-6	214	105	229	0.0	NaN
241	241.0	Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.4541	0.4799	214	8-13	8-13	0-1	0-0	0-2	3-6	5-4	5-8	222	185	241	0.0	NaN
245	245.0	Georgia St.	CAA	0.4510	0.4828	204	8-14	8-14	0-0	0-2	0-3	1-5	7-4	5-6	230	266	245	0.0	NaN
253	253.0	UC Irvine	BW	0.4413	0.4710	240	7-13	7-13	0-1	0-0	0-2	2-4	5-6	4-6	225	223	253	0.0	NaN
266	266.0	UC Riverside	BW	0.4306	0.4672	246	6-13	6-13	0-1	0-1	0-2	3-4	3-5	4-6	209	226	266	0.0	NaN
268	268.0	Evansville	MVC	0.4294	0.5037	158	5-15	5-15	0-2	0-0	0-4	1-9	4-0	5-4	239	321	268	0.0	NaN
272	272.0	Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.4272	0.4544	276	8-11	8-11	0-0	0-2	0-2	2-2	6-5	2-6	328	274	272	0.0	NaN
307	307.0	Gardner Webb	BSth	0.4025	0.4863	190	3-15	3-15	0-2	0-1	0-2	0-4	3-6	0-7	262	15	307	0.0	NaN

Road Teams:

	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50	51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
43	43.0	Siena	MAAC	0.5964	0.5081	146	19-4	19-4	0-3	0-0	2-1	8-0	9-0	7-4	106	176	43	0.0	NaN
46	46.0	Old Dominion	CAA	0.5943	0.5347	93	17-6	17-6	1-0	2-3	2-2	4-1	9-0	8-4	35	19	46	0.0	NaN
48	48.0	Wichita St.	MVC	0.5915	0.5072	150	18-4	18-4	1-1	1-0	2-0	8-3	6-0	10-1	90	313	48	0.0	NaN
51	51.0	William & Mary	CAA	0.5836	0.5351	90	14-6	14-6	1-0	2-2	1-2	5-0	5-2	7-2	21	67	51	0.0	NaN
67	67.0	Nevada	WAC	0.5703	0.5586	54	12-8	12-8	0-1	0-1	3-5	4-1	5-0	7-5	63	30	67	0.0	NaN
73	73.0	Western Carolina	SC	0.5670	0.4844	201	14-5	14-5	0-1	1-1	2-0	4-1	7-2	7-2	33	110	73	0.0	NaN
74	74.0	Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.5663	0.4721	231	18-4	18-4	0-1	0-0	3-2	5-1	10-0	12-2	81	304	74	0.0	NaN
82	82.0	New Mexico St.	WAC	0.5563	0.5334	96	12-8	12-8	0-2	0-1	3-2	2-2	7-1	6-6	138	115	82	0.0	NaN
88	88.0	Indiana St.	MVC	0.5530	0.5421	81	12-9	12-9	0-2	0-1	0-1	9-4	3-1	7-3	64	111	88	0.0	NaN
94	94.0	College of Charleston	SC	0.5486	0.4944	176	14-8	14-8	0-1	0-1	2-1	2-4	10-1	5-6	139	70	94	0.0	NaN
101	101.0	Buffalo	MAC	0.5434	0.5194	121	10-7	10-7	0-1	0-0	0-1	5-5	5-0	6-4	91	116	101	0.0	NaN
102	102.0	Drexel	CAA	0.5418	0.5376	85	12-11	12-11	0-3	0-4	3-2	2-3	7-1	5-7	148	78	102	0.0	NaN
113	113.0	Wright St.	Horz	0.5335	0.4866	189	14-8	14-8	0-1	0-0	1-3	6-4	7-0	7-4	105	213	113	0.0	NaN
116	116.0	Akron	MAC	0.5310	0.4832	203	14-6	14-6	0-1	0-1	0-1	8-3	6-0	9-4	144	233	116	0.0	NaN
119	119.0	Morehead St.	OVC	0.5284	0.4789	216	13-7	13-7	0-1	0-0	0-4	4-1	9-1	3-5	156	51	119	0.0	NaN
123	123.0	San Jose St.	WAC	0.5240	0.5013	161	11-9	11-9	0-0	0-1	3-3	1-2	7-3	6-5	145	231	123	0.0	NaN
127	127.0	Long Beach St.	BW	0.5236	0.5378	84	8-11	8-11	0-4	0-1	1-1	3-0	4-5	4-7	51	3	127	0.0	NaN
128	128.0	Fairfield	MAAC	0.5231	0.4628	256	15-7	15-7	0-1	0-2	0-1	3-3	12-0	7-3	124	295	128	0.0	NaN
131	131.0	Western Michigan	MAC	0.5226	0.5280	107	10-9	10-9	0-1	0-0	4-3	1-4	5-1	7-5	72	42	131	0.0	NaN
132	132.0	Rider	MAAC	0.5222	0.4979	169	13-11	13-11	0-1	0-1	1-4	4-4	8-1	7-5	107	151	132	0.0	NaN
133	133.0	Morgan St.	MEAC	0.5207	0.4333	307	15-7	15-7	0-0	0-2	0-1	2-3	13-1	8-7	155	273	133	0.0	NaN
134	134.0	Oral Roberts	Sum	0.5200	0.5018	159	12-10	12-10	1-1	1-1	0-5	1-1	9-2	4-7	129	31	134	0.0	NaN
145	145.0	Valparaiso	Horz	0.5114	0.5192	122	8-12	8-12	0-3	0-0	0-1	4-7	4-1	2-7	233	141	145	0.0	NaN
162	162.0	Niagara	MAAC	0.5042	0.4997	165	12-12	12-12	0-0	0-1	0-2	6-8	6-1	7-5	154	241	162	0.0	NaN
165	165.0	Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.5040	0.4847	199	10-9	10-9	0-2	0-0	0-0	5-6	5-1	7-1	69	296	165	0.0	NaN
167	167.0	Boston University	AE	0.5033	0.4947	174	11-11	11-11	0-2	0-2	1-2	1-5	9-0	5-7	164	64	167	0.0	NaN
173	173.0	Drake	MVC	0.5000	0.5255	113	11-12	11-12	0-1	1-2	1-1	4-7	5-1	5-7	266	262	173	0.0	NaN
178	178.0	UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.4946	0.4743	224	10-8	10-8	0-1	0-1	2-1	0-2	8-3	4-5	190	164	178	0.0	NaN
193	193.0	Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.4851	0.4732	226	10-10	10-10	0-1	0-0	0-4	2-2	8-3	4-5	159	170	193	0.0	NaN
200	200.0	Winthrop	BSth	0.4764	0.4663	248	9-10	9-10	0-0	0-3	0-1	1-4	8-2	2-6	241	172	200	0.0	NaN
209	209.0	NC Wilmington	CAA	0.4731	0.5274	109	7-15	7-15	0-1	1-2	1-5	1-5	5-2	4-7	201	101	209	0.0	NaN
231	231.0	South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.4634	0.4391	302	7-8	7-8	0-0	0-1	0-2	0-2	7-3	3-5	169	208	231	0.0	NaN
239	239.0	James Madison	CAA	0.4571	0.4545	274	10-12	10-12	0-0	1-3	1-3	1-4	8-3	7-4	227	345	239	0.0	NaN
240	240.0	Youngstown St.	Horz	0.4551	0.5048	155	6-13	6-13	0-3	0-0	0-1	2-9	4-0	4-4	149	144	240	0.0	NaN
247	247.0	Northern Illinois	MAC	0.4494	0.4643	251	8-11	8-11	0-2	0-0	0-3	2-4	6-2	4-8	283	277	247	0.0	NaN
248	248.0	Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.4475	0.4435	291	8-10	8-10	0-0	0-1	1-1	2-4	5-4	6-5	207	288	248	0.0	NaN
259	259.0	Cal Poly	BW	0.4341	0.4360	304	8-12	8-12	0-1	0-1	0-1	1-3	7-6	3-9	329	327	259	0.0	NaN
260	260.0	New Hampshire	AE	0.4330	0.4429	294	7-11	7-11	0-1	0-1	0-1	1-4	6-4	4-6	270	297	260	0.0	NaN
281	281.0	UC Davis	BW	0.4218	0.4428	295	6-12	6-12	0-0	0-0	0-1	1-6	5-5	2-8	330	318	281	0.0	NaN
282	282.0	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.4214	0.4712	239	5-15	5-15	0-0	0-0	0-2	0-10	5-3	2-7	274	212	282	0.0	NaN
283	283.0	Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.4207	0.5110	140	4-16	4-16	0-2	0-0	0-0	1-13	3-1	3-6	253	192	283	0.0	NaN
284	284.0	Tennessee St.	OVC	0.4204	0.5012	162	4-19	4-19	0-1	0-1	0-3	1-9	3-5	3-9	224	127	284	0.0	NaN
285	285.0	Towson	CAA	0.4198	0.4853	196	5-16	5-16	0-0	0-2	0-2	1-9	4-3	3-7	301	252	285	0.0	NaN
298	298.0	Elon	SC	0.4145	0.4876	187	3-16	3-16	0-1	0-1	0-2	0-5	3-7	1-9	278	149	298	0.0	NaN
312	312.0	Toledo	MAC	0.3991	0.5103	142	2-18	2-18	0-1	0-2	0-3	0-8	2-4	2-11	298	152	312	0.0	NaN
314	314.0	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.3984	0.4887	185	2-18	2-18	0-1	0-0	0-3	1-6	1-8	2-14	318	240	314	0.0	NaN
321	321.0	Presbyterian	BSth	0.3956	0.4868	188	3-19	3-19	0-0	0-3	0-4	0-5	3-7	1-10	272	95	321	0.0	NaN
335	335.0	Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.3740	0.4858	195	1-17	1-17	0-0	0-2	0-3	0-6	1-6	0-7	333	161	335	0.0	NaN
336	336.0	Marist	MAAC	0.3717	0.4862	191	1-21	1-21	0-0	0-1	0-1	0-12	1-7	0-10	345	294	336	0.0	NaN

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com