live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog

Here are Forecasts of what the RPI/Records will be on Monday, January 30, 2012 for all 142 BracketBuster teams.

How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column. Through games of Jan 29, 2012.


Home Teams:

ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
1414.0CreightonMVC0.62290.529210320-220-21-02-05-28-04-010-121157140.0NaN
3333.0Murray St.OVC0.60540.473822718-018-01-01-01-05-010-09-0490330.0NaN
4949.0Oral RobertsSum0.58590.492817720-420-40-21-02-18-19-08-476153490.0NaN
5454.0IonaMAAC0.58180.503814417-517-50-00-04-28-25-18-32972540.0NaN
5555.0Cleveland St.Horz0.58140.498015717-417-40-01-02-17-27-19-228125550.0NaN
6464.0South Dakota St.Sum0.57510.496716615-615-60-00-21-16-28-16-477167640.0NaN
6868.0DavidsonSC0.56940.502214614-514-51-10-10-15-18-15-4457680.0NaN
7070.0OhioMAC0.56900.488818516-416-40-00-13-14-29-011-274260700.0NaN
7979.0Missouri St.MVC0.56000.56484112-1012-101-30-23-14-44-06-57945790.0NaN
8383.0Loyola MDMAAC0.55570.469024516-516-50-10-01-26-29-07-368220830.0NaN
8484.0Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.55510.477221418-518-50-00-22-16-210-09-373207840.0NaN
8989.0New Mexico St.WAC0.55240.518711714-714-70-21-10-25-18-19-584111890.0NaN
9090.0Weber St.BSky0.55200.458327514-414-40-10-20-02-012-16-367139900.0NaN
102102.0George MasonCAA0.54000.456027818-518-50-00-11-26-111-18-41252441020.0NaN
105105.0Kent St.MAC0.53760.477621313-613-61-00-00-44-28-09-3882371050.0NaN
106106.0MontanaBSky0.53620.479021013-613-60-11-00-21-211-15-51231141060.0NaN
107107.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.53540.53868411-911-90-32-30-02-27-15-61671221070.0NaN
110110.0ManhattanMAAC0.53440.464725416-716-70-20-01-14-311-17-51322711100.0NaN
119119.0Illinois St.MVC0.52940.504314214-814-80-10-24-15-25-28-31432911190.0NaN
122122.0Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.52860.505613712-912-90-30-00-25-47-05-51051291220.0NaN
123123.0North Dakota St.Sum0.52610.471023712-712-70-00-20-15-17-35-31272901230.0NaN
124124.0ButlerHorz0.52410.528910411-1111-110-20-22-13-46-25-696191240.0NaN
138138.0Charleston SouthernBSth0.51470.459827211-711-70-10-20-02-29-23-41081411380.0NaN
140140.0Coastal CarolinaBSth0.51410.432331712-512-50-00-01-02-49-13-32193101400.0NaN
144144.0Utah St.WAC0.50990.501014812-1012-100-01-20-43-18-38-71491931440.0NaN
152152.0NortheasternCAA0.50600.482819711-1011-100-00-00-54-57-04-61281401520.0NaN
160160.0Georgia St.CAA0.49950.451128914-814-80-00-02-31-311-28-32223411600.0NaN
161161.0Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.49940.5511617-127-120-20-11-23-63-12-611021610.0NaN
162162.0EvansvilleMVC0.49880.52961029-119-110-20-22-13-54-14-52402121620.0NaN
177177.0Northwestern St.Slnd0.48920.46362569-99-90-10-10-22-47-14-71651741770.0NaN
186186.0AlbanyAE0.48260.411333814-914-90-10-00-20-514-18-61633111860.0NaN
187187.0VermontAE0.48230.451328813-1013-100-00-20-24-59-16-81781811870.0NaN
188188.0Bowling GreenMAC0.48200.50411438-118-111-10-01-31-55-25-72002051880.0NaN
190190.0Louisiana TechWAC0.48150.49341739-119-110-10-00-43-46-26-71802351900.0NaN
191191.0Austin PeayOVC0.48040.51281248-148-140-00-60-11-37-42-10220301910.0NaN
197197.0IdahoWAC0.47750.47922099-109-100-00-10-23-36-45-72422861970.0NaN
198198.0BradleyMVC0.47740.5640446-176-170-40-21-52-33-35-7148511980.0NaN
200200.0Cal St. FullertonBW0.47720.412733511-711-70-00-20-01-210-36-42263362000.0NaN
203203.0Eastern KentuckyOVC0.47660.453328611-1111-110-00-20-21-410-36-61993082030.0NaN
216216.0Missouri Kansas CitySum0.47290.49711638-148-140-20-30-12-36-55-51121772160.0NaN
219219.0Ball St.MAC0.47040.411833611-711-70-00-00-32-29-27-42383422190.0NaN
220220.0UC RiversideBW0.46950.47212328-118-110-10-10-24-44-34-71811592200.0NaN
222222.0DetroitHorz0.46930.479320810-1110-110-00-20-35-55-14-62081492220.0NaN
227227.0DelawareCAA0.46570.48042019-129-120-10-02-31-66-24-62713022270.0NaN
235235.0Appalachian St.SC0.46120.48072007-117-110-10-10-22-25-52-6195712350.0NaN
238238.0McNeese St.Slnd0.45900.46502536-106-100-10-10-11-65-11-8253822380.0NaN
242242.0Morgan St.MEAC0.45640.51031295-135-130-10-20-41-34-32-9211382420.0NaN
244244.0HofstraCAA0.45450.52031137-167-160-00-02-41-94-36-61871612440.0NaN
252252.0UC IrvineBW0.44940.48301966-126-120-10-20-30-46-22-82801182520.0NaN
255255.0Central MichiganMAC0.44780.47662156-136-130-10-20-30-36-44-82121882550.0NaN
257257.0Miami OHMAC0.44670.5416804-144-140-10-23-20-51-43-8241762570.0NaN
259259.0Virginia Military InstBSth0.44660.42893228-108-100-10-00-10-68-22-52892842590.0NaN
260260.0Jacksonville St.OVC0.44650.47452237-137-130-10-10-21-66-33-72451992600.0NaN
264264.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.44580.49731605-125-120-20-10-40-15-42-714682640.0NaN
267267.0Gardner WebbBSth0.44100.44682918-138-130-10-00-02-86-43-72913252670.0NaN
269269.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.43920.44462957-117-110-00-30-01-36-55-52313322690.0NaN
273273.0South DakotaSum0.43540.48301954-144-140-00-20-31-43-52-42673192730.0NaN
277277.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.43030.41153377-97-90-00-00-11-46-42-73313332770.0NaN
279279.0MaineAE0.43000.40483399-109-100-00-10-10-49-45-51792932790.0NaN
291291.0Sam Houston St.Slnd0.41620.47532204-134-130-00-00-40-74-22-82841382910.0NaN
294294.0PacificBW0.41430.47122365-135-130-00-10-22-33-72-83021752940.0NaN
295295.0St. Peter'sMAAC0.41180.49231784-184-180-00-20-31-93-41-103081122950.0NaN
297297.0Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.40790.44752904-134-130-00-10-20-44-62-72752752970.0NaN
309309.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.39770.45302873-153-150-10-00-20-83-42-83002653090.0NaN
315315.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.38990.46282593-133-130-00-20-01-32-80-73392263150.0NaN
317317.0New HampshireAE0.38850.41603326-136-130-00-00-11-65-64-63033243170.0NaN
319319.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.38660.41933295-115-110-00-00-11-54-53-63053093190.0NaN
323323.0Northern ArizonaBSky0.38230.45492833-163-160-00-10-20-53-82-82942093230.0NaN
327327.0CanisiusMAAC0.37970.44163034-174-170-10-00-50-44-73-73193383270.0NaN
334334.0RadfordBSth0.37040.47422252-202-200-10-00-10-92-91-9292563340.0NaN
336336.0Sacramento St.BSky0.36790.42553244-144-140-00-00-30-34-83-63183313360.0NaN

Road Teams:

ExpectedRPISOSSOS RankCurrentProjected1-2526-5051-100101-200200+Non Conf ForecastsCurrentOver-
OverallRPI RankTeamConfForecastForecastForecastW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LW-LRPISOSRPIRatedt-stat
1919.0St. Mary'sWCC0.61990.522611019-219-21-12-03-13-010-09-250150190.0NaN
3131.0Wichita St.MVC0.60610.54357617-417-41-20-12-111-03-08-22429310.0NaN
3434.0Long Beach St.BW0.60420.54647014-614-60-31-21-06-16-05-6231340.0NaN
5858.0Northern IowaMVC0.57890.57681913-913-91-21-13-26-42-09-21017580.0NaN
5959.0AkronMAC0.57850.53818613-713-70-11-12-43-17-07-69465590.0NaN
6060.0NevadaWAC0.57850.494217016-316-30-10-12-15-09-09-389206600.0NaN
8686.0DrexelCAA0.55460.472123317-517-50-00-12-27-18-18-3106266860.0NaN
9797.0DrakeMVC0.54600.54766612-912-90-22-20-35-15-16-4124164970.0NaN
9898.0BuffaloMAC0.54550.497316111-611-60-10-12-34-05-16-4109170980.0NaN
112112.0ValparaisoHorz0.53300.485119313-813-80-10-03-15-35-35-51512151120.0NaN
113113.0Indiana St.MVC0.53280.515612112-912-90-11-21-36-14-28-2802551130.0NaN
120120.0LamarSlnd0.52940.487719011-811-80-20-10-14-37-17-557751200.0NaN
127127.0OaklandSum0.52350.53888311-1211-120-10-31-42-48-05-6107521270.0NaN
129129.0NC AshevilleBSth0.52320.476521713-713-70-10-10-14-39-12-6235811290.0NaN
130130.0College of CharlestonSC0.52320.518911612-912-90-00-11-26-35-38-317111300.0NaN
131131.0Old DominionCAA0.52260.504614114-914-90-20-01-35-48-05-7158321310.0NaN
136136.0Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.51580.429032114-514-50-10-00-14-210-17-51412721360.0NaN
137137.0UC Santa BarbaraBW0.51470.49771589-79-70-20-30-12-07-13-5117201370.0NaN
145145.0Western MichiganMAC0.50920.5314979-119-110-30-01-52-06-35-8103131450.0NaN
146146.0FairfieldMAAC0.50800.502114711-1011-100-00-20-43-48-05-6119621460.0NaN
147147.0Youngstown St.Horz0.50770.49321749-99-90-00-01-32-46-23-52172451470.0NaN
159159.0WoffordSC0.49980.446729312-812-80-10-00-15-27-45-51702801590.0NaN
164164.0Morehead St.OVC0.49780.50841319-119-110-10-12-22-45-34-7150921640.0NaN
172172.0Stony BrookAE0.49250.431331812-712-70-10-10-04-28-34-62662671720.0NaN
175175.0Boston UniversityAE0.49060.479520711-1211-120-00-10-62-49-14-102041211750.0NaN
176176.0CampbellBSth0.48990.441830113-1013-100-10-00-23-410-35-62062981760.0NaN
178178.0Tennessee TechOVC0.48890.459927111-911-90-10-10-22-29-36-51752641780.0NaN
180180.0Western IllinoisSum0.48860.47002419-89-80-10-10-22-07-43-31362331800.0NaN
183183.0Texas San AntonioSlnd0.48400.425332512-712-70-11-00-03-18-56-61732611830.0NaN
184184.0SienaMAAC0.48350.499115210-1110-110-00-02-54-34-35-52132491840.0NaN
185185.0Cal PolyBW0.48320.454228411-911-90-20-20-03-28-37-41312561850.0NaN
189189.0NC WilmingtonCAA0.48160.50741328-138-130-00-00-63-45-34-61441071890.0NaN
192192.0NiagaraMAAC0.48000.51181279-149-140-10-01-70-68-05-72051921920.0NaN
204204.0Fresno St.WAC0.47640.51361227-147-140-00-00-52-75-26-81551472040.0NaN
208208.0Eastern MichiganMAC0.47520.46692499-119-110-20-00-43-16-44-92462342080.0NaN
209209.0Tennessee St.OVC0.47450.437230911-1011-100-10-20-12-39-35-61762222090.0NaN
211211.0Eastern WashingtonBSky0.47380.48022028-128-120-20-00-21-57-34-71691952110.0NaN
212212.0Portland St.BSky0.47360.48331948-118-110-00-00-41-47-34-61611692120.0NaN
213213.0HawaiiWAC0.47330.468224711-911-90-21-01-12-37-37-62723062130.0NaN
218218.0Wright St.Horz0.47110.488218810-1210-120-20-00-23-77-14-72251272180.0NaN
231231.0RiderMAAC0.46320.48121989-149-140-10-00-52-67-23-92581712310.0NaN
232232.0Southern IllinoisMVC0.46260.51291237-147-140-10-50-24-53-13-73132992320.0NaN
239239.0IUPU Fort WayneSum0.45730.49711647-117-110-00-20-32-45-23-31542502390.0NaN
240240.0Southern UtahSum0.45700.435731210-1010-100-10-10-21-39-33-53273402400.0NaN
246246.0James MadisonCAA0.45350.455828110-1210-120-00-00-23-77-37-42013132460.0NaN
261261.0Montana St.BSky0.44650.41323349-99-90-00-10-10-19-63-63103342610.0NaN
263263.0Idaho St.BSky0.44600.49621676-146-140-00-11-40-45-51-103111262630.0NaN
271271.0Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.43770.41693309-99-90-10-00-12-37-43-73173232710.0NaN
274274.0IUPUISum0.43310.50521386-156-150-10-20-12-54-64-61901132740.0NaN
278278.0WinthropBSth0.43020.46022707-147-140-10-10-20-67-41-8252572780.0NaN
280280.0PresbyterianBSth0.42960.47222317-137-130-10-00-11-76-45-41341782800.0NaN
281281.0San Jose St.WAC0.42670.47482226-156-150-00-10-31-65-56-82622892810.0NaN
282282.0MaristMAAC0.42580.47062407-147-140-10-00-41-66-35-62432472820.0NaN
284284.0ToledoMAC0.42280.43313158-118-110-10-00-23-25-66-62683052840.0NaN
285285.0Central ArkansasSlnd0.42230.44322985-115-110-10-00-21-34-53-62472622850.0NaN
288288.0High PointBSth0.42040.46202646-146-140-00-00-32-64-52-63011912880.0NaN
292292.0TowsonCAA0.41530.5449731-221-220-20-10-51-90-50-12304422920.0NaN
301301.0Illinois ChicagoHorz0.40400.46632505-145-140-00-00-22-63-63-52872963010.0NaN
302302.0Loyola ChicagoHorz0.40390.46282604-164-160-00-20-10-64-74-52302953020.0NaN
306306.0William & MaryCAA0.39910.47662163-193-190-10-00-30-83-71-103362973060.0NaN
310310.0Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.39710.46292584-164-160-10-00-22-72-61-113322303100.0NaN
313313.0Delaware St.MEAC0.39140.42533264-114-110-00-00-30-34-51-83071323130.0NaN
314314.0Tennessee MartinOVC0.39120.49801561-201-200-00-40-11-40-111-102851023140.0NaN
318318.0Texas St.Slnd0.38780.44422964-124-120-00-00-10-54-63-62822823180.0NaN
324324.0LibertyBSth0.38220.41963285-155-150-00-00-00-95-62-73303183240.0NaN
325325.0HartfordAE0.38080.44173024-174-170-00-00-20-94-60-123432783250.0NaN
330330.0HamptonMEAC0.37820.39843437-147-140-00-00-10-47-94-93153283300.0NaN
331331.0MD Baltimore CountyAE0.37650.44293003-173-170-10-00-10-93-61-113292513310.0NaN
338338.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.36470.47422241-161-160-00-00-20-61-80-103412533380.0NaN
343343.0UC DavisBW0.33240.44322990-190-190-10-10-10-50-110-113443073430.0NaN
344344.0BinghamtonAE0.32710.43613110-210-210-10-00-20-60-120-123422763440.0NaN

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data and Jeff Sagarin for the use of "PREDICTOR" to generate probabilities.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: rpiforecast@gmail.com