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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:299.0
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:304
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20299.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA85-39L0%0.0
11-18South Carolina (42.0)SECA92-50L0%0.0
11-22Syracuse (84.0)ACCA101-59L0%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (204.0)PatA73-57L0%0.0
11-26Monmouth (49.0)MAACN86-62L0%0.0
12-6Miami FL (41.0)ACCA82-46L0%0.0
12-10Texas A&M (92.0)SECA83-76L0%0.0
12-13Clemson (69.0)ACCA93-65L0%0.0
12-16Furman (96.0)SCA67-69W100%0.0
12-22Saint Mary's (17.0)WCCA74-47L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA89-85L0%0.0
1-4Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA75-59L0%0.0
1-14Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH78-74W100%0.0
1-16Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH82-86L0%0.0
1-21Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH74-64W100%0.0
1-23Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH75-77L0%0.0
1-25Hampton (283.0)MEACA66-68W100%0.0
1-28Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA92-69L0%0.0
1-30Howard (337.0)MEACA68-77W100%0.0
2-4Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH62-65L0%0.0
2-6Hampton (283.0)MEACH64-93L0%0.0
2-11North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA85-62L0%0.0
2-13North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA65-72W100%0.0
2-15Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA81-70L0%0.0
2-18Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH84-79W100%0.0
2-25Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH75-64W100%0.0
3-2Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA95-88L0%0.0
3-7Florida A&M (349.0)MEACN82-78W100%0.0
3-8Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA93-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.2426.2436.5936.59-7.04-7.04
Norfolk St.MEAC5.835.8342.8642.86-0.83-0.83
HamptonMEAC4.144.1442.3142.31-0.64-0.64
Coppin St.MEAC4.094.0921.4321.43-2.34-2.34
Savannah St.MEAC4.094.0936.0036.00-1.14-1.14
Florida A&MMEAC4.064.0619.2319.23-2.50-2.50
HowardMEAC2.542.5425.8125.81-1.23-1.23
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.542.5427.5927.59-1.14-1.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.482.4835.4835.48-0.72-0.72
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.472.4772.4172.411.111.11
Morgan St.MEAC2.462.4642.8642.86-0.35-0.35
Delaware St.MEAC2.402.4027.5927.59-1.08-1.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.392.393.453.45-2.23-2.23
SyracuseACC1.891.8954.8454.840.180.18
ClemsonACC1.861.8651.6151.610.060.06
South CarolinaSEC1.861.8666.6766.670.620.62
JacksonvilleASun1.841.8444.4444.44-0.20-0.20
MonmouthMAAC1.811.8181.2581.251.131.13
Holy CrossPat1.811.8145.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Miami FLACC1.801.8064.5264.520.520.52
Texas A&MSEC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC1.751.7587.5087.501.311.31
FurmanSC1.721.7265.5265.520.540.54
Saint Mary'sWCC1.721.7287.1087.101.281.28
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
East CarolinaAmer0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1630.3030.30-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
BYUWCC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
LSUSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
North CarolinaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00