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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:304.2
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:35
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:1



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13169.50.04%
13-14198.40.41%
12-15220.11.28%
11-16242.14.04%
10-17264.29.17%
9-18284.615.07%
8-19301.819.88%
7-20316.519.47%
6-21327.516.46%
5-22336.08.63%
4-23341.43.99%
3-24346.01.22%
2-25347.90.32%
1-26351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA85-39L0%0.0
11-18South Carolina (17.4)SECA92-50L0%0.0
11-22Syracuse (39.6)ACCA101-59L0%0.0
11-25Holy Cross (183.0)PatA73-57L0%0.0
11-26Monmouth (65.5)MAACN86-62L0%0.0
12-6Miami FL (45.8)ACCA0-00%-33.0
12-10Texas A&M (42.0)SECA0-00%-31.4
12-13Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-01%-28.1
12-16Furman (185.5)SCA0-09%-16.4
12-22Saint Mary's (14.7)WCCA0-00%-33.9
12-31Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-012%-14.3
1-4Coppin St. (342.9)MEACA0-054%1.1
1-7Hampton (332.8)MEACA0-033%-5.4
1-9Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-027%-7.3
1-14Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACH0-063%4.0
1-16Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH0-064%4.4
1-21Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-050%0.1
1-23Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-054%1.2
1-28Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACA0-026%-7.6
1-30Howard (291.2)MEACA0-024%-8.4
2-4Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-046%-1.1
2-6Hampton (332.8)MEACH0-053%0.8
2-11North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACA0-07%-18.0
2-13North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACA0-042%-2.4
2-18Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-073%7.3
2-25Florida A&M (346.2)MEACH0-068%5.5
3-2Savannah St. (339.8)MEACA0-044%-1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC28.6926.140.0031.35-28.69-9.75
HamptonMEAC0.004.360.0032.32-0.00-1.54
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.340.0036.44-0.00-1.18
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.340.0016.85-0.00-2.88
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.330.0022.47-0.00-2.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.5816.6731.72-0.00-0.94
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.5516.6736.76-0.00-0.67
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.520.0023.11-0.00-1.35
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.510.0023.12-0.00-1.35
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.712.510.0032.77-0.71-0.87
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4816.6735.86-0.00-0.70
HowardMEAC0.002.480.0036.92-0.00-0.65
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.4866.6774.680.001.22
ClemsonACC0.002.0166.6751.890.000.08
SyracuseACC12.142.0060.0069.152.430.77
South CarolinaSEC12.262.00100.0080.1112.261.21
JacksonvilleASun0.001.9557.1458.370.000.33
Holy CrossPat12.261.9433.3345.94-4.09-0.16
MonmouthMAAC12.261.9466.6770.624.090.80
Miami FLACC0.001.9171.4364.570.000.56
Wichita St.MVC10.001.8866.6785.553.331.34
Texas A&MSEC0.001.8866.6764.940.000.56
FurmanSC0.001.8520.0047.88-0.00-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.85100.0088.660.001.43
Virginia TechACC0.000.2285.7162.920.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1866.6739.720.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1775.0047.510.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1728.5730.29-0.00-0.07
RiderMAAC0.000.1650.0047.990.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1671.4343.020.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1657.1448.860.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.710.1671.4349.770.31-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.1616.6735.65-0.00-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1666.6754.380.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1550.0027.250.00-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1585.7162.410.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.710.1585.7175.950.510.08
William & MaryCAA0.000.1440.0055.44-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.1428.5728.26-0.00-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1383.3380.700.000.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.1357.1455.810.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1385.7159.740.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1314.2931.71-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1316.6718.96-0.00-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1333.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1366.6754.420.000.01
MichiganB100.710.1371.4366.530.310.04
BYUWCC0.000.1371.4368.660.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1350.0045.920.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.1375.0067.660.000.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1316.6727.03-0.00-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.000.1350.0047.560.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1242.8635.68-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0075.010.000.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1287.5075.320.000.06
DukeACC0.000.1287.5078.680.000.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1271.4350.570.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1271.4352.370.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1285.7180.010.000.07
PittsburghACC0.000.1285.7155.550.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1050.0045.410.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1028.5734.18-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.1042.8644.33-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1060.0070.500.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1042.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1050.0052.140.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1071.4368.970.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1033.3343.64-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1025.0063.95-0.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6732.240.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1028.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1033.3345.60-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1028.5727.50-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1042.8638.05-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1057.1444.160.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0049.010.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1066.6758.420.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0928.5733.92-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0950.0053.050.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.090.0033.58-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0933.3338.19-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6756.020.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.07
MississippiSEC0.000.0971.4346.010.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0925.0034.47-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0928.5743.62-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0082.550.000.06
ArmyPat0.000.0933.3345.58-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0950.0053.530.000.01
ColgatePat0.830.0920.0041.31-0.50-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.710.0916.6734.31-0.48-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0042.710.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0720.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0750.0071.330.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0785.7155.890.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0714.2933.07-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0742.8650.32-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0771.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0728.5723.76-0.00-0.04
RichmondA100.000.0757.1448.600.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0725.0039.28-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.990.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0716.6729.36-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0716.6733.82-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0733.3338.20-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0750.0056.430.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0075.690.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0771.4374.450.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0783.3368.880.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0716.6733.69-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
WisconsinB100.830.0675.0073.840.420.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0683.3361.490.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.710.0640.0067.95-0.140.02
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.02
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0642.8642.47-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
HarvardIvy0.710.060.0043.04-0.71-0.01
MassachusettsA100.710.0683.3358.080.480.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0683.3355.200.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0640.0057.49-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.710.0628.5730.63-0.31-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0633.3367.01-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3333.15-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.710.030.0039.35-0.71-0.01
Michigan St.B100.710.0350.0061.590.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.710.0360.0039.200.14-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.02
VermontAE0.710.0362.5071.630.180.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.02
AlbanyAE0.710.0350.0060.380.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.710.0342.8636.82-0.10-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01