live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 1, 2015.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:320.6
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:331
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:7-8
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20311.730.19%
8-21324.469.81%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Washington (116.1)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (194.7)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-18Virginia (3.4)ACCA75-55L0%0.0
11-29Georgia Southern (125.1)SBA71-58L0%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (152.6)BSthA66-52L0%0.0
12-6Florida A&M (350.2)MEACH70-61W100%0.0
12-8Bethune Cookman (338.8)MEACH71-66W100%0.0
12-11College of Charleston (300.9)CAAA50-47L0%0.0
12-14Coastal Carolina (152.6)BSthH43-57L0%0.0
12-17Texas Tech (176.2)B12A101-39L0%0.0
12-20Houston (270.3)AmerA63-71W100%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (323.5)SlndN65-59L0%0.0
12-23Southern Utah (303.0)BSkyN66-56L0%0.0
12-31Fordham (235.4)A10A74-54L0%0.0
1-3Eastern Kentucky (150.0)OVCA63-52L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina Central (111.7)MEACA76-45L0%0.0
1-12North Carolina A&T (338.6)MEACA50-52W100%0.0
1-17Delaware St. (235.4)MEACA60-49L0%0.0
1-19Maryland Eastern Shore (190.9)MEACA72-73W100%0.0
1-24Norfolk St. (152.0)MEACH63-76L0%0.0
1-26Hampton (280.8)MEACH65-56W100%0.0
1-31Delaware St. (235.4)MEACH78-74W100%0.0
2-7Coppin St. (314.6)MEACA77-74L0%0.0
2-9Morgan St. (335.6)MEACA55-43L0%0.0
2-14Savannah St. (319.7)MEACA53-56W100%0.0
2-21Maryland Eastern Shore (190.9)MEACH56-68L0%0.0
2-23Howard (259.5)MEACH65-75L0%0.0
2-28Savannah St. (319.7)MEACH57-68L0%0.0
3-6Bethune Cookman (338.8)MEACA0-031%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.1826.1732.2632.86-9.29-8.97
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.144.0257.1458.240.590.66
Savannah St.MEAC4.063.9925.0025.95-2.03-1.92
Delaware St.MEAC4.063.9840.0041.57-0.81-0.67
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.313.9630.7731.28-0.89-1.48
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.573.4562.5062.500.890.86
Florida A&MMEAC2.352.353.704.72-2.17-2.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.352.3523.0823.48-1.26-1.25
Coppin St.MEAC2.382.3519.2320.04-1.46-1.41
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.312.3575.0076.581.151.25
HowardMEAC2.402.3544.0044.10-0.29-0.28
Morgan St.MEAC2.382.3521.4321.07-1.36-1.36
Norfolk St.MEAC2.342.3257.6957.660.360.36
HamptonMEAC2.312.3246.1545.60-0.18-0.20
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.921.8561.5461.540.440.43
HoustonAmer1.881.8137.0437.59-0.49-0.45
FordhamA101.881.8128.0029.14-0.83-0.76
Southern UtahBSky1.821.7628.0029.19-0.80-0.73
VirginiaACC1.821.7596.3094.351.681.56
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.821.7520.8320.68-1.06-1.03
Texas TechB121.821.7541.3840.10-0.31-0.35
College of CharlestonCAA1.791.7223.3323.33-0.95-0.92
Georgia SouthernSB1.791.7269.5767.590.700.61
San FranciscoWCC1.791.7239.2939.29-0.38-0.37
WashingtonP121.791.7251.8550.670.070.02
CampbellBSth0.230.2225.0025.00-0.12-0.11
WinthropBSth0.210.1953.8553.850.020.01
Miami FLACC0.200.1862.0761.930.050.04
NJITind0.160.1854.1754.180.010.01
TowsonCAA0.150.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.05
LibertyBSth0.170.1614.8114.81-0.12-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1651.8551.850.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1553.5754.690.010.01
StetsonASun0.130.1522.2222.22-0.07-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1510.3410.34-0.13-0.12
UCFAmer0.130.1540.7440.68-0.02-0.03
DuquesneA100.130.1534.6233.88-0.04-0.05
Kansas St.B120.160.1550.0048.820.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.130.1548.1548.96-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.160.1572.4171.800.070.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1559.2659.260.020.03
Virginia TechACC0.150.1434.4834.77-0.05-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1361.5461.540.030.03
High PointBSth0.140.1370.3770.370.060.05
LongwoodBSth0.140.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1360.0059.390.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1322.2222.22-0.08-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1342.3142.31-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.140.1364.2964.290.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.130.1273.0872.290.060.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1253.5753.570.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1233.3334.09-0.03-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1250.0050.330.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.1279.3177.780.060.07
USC UpstateASun0.130.1262.9662.960.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1233.3334.53-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.130.1272.4171.340.060.05
Wake ForestACC0.130.1244.8343.35-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
VCUA100.130.1272.4172.030.060.05
DelawareCAA0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.120.1161.2961.290.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.107.697.75-0.09-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.110.1025.9327.36-0.05-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1037.0437.19-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.100.1060.0060.820.020.02
IUPUISum0.100.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.100.0939.2938.91-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0962.0761.980.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0968.0066.540.030.03
MarylandB100.100.0982.7682.190.070.06
BYUWCC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0946.1547.40-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0950.0049.020.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0925.0026.97-0.05-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0917.2420.21-0.07-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.0974.0775.600.050.05
La SalleA100.100.0951.7251.500.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0954.8454.840.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0968.9768.270.040.03
MemphisAmer0.100.0958.6256.820.020.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0969.2369.510.040.03
HawaiiBW0.100.0960.7160.840.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0925.0025.00-0.03-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0960.7160.710.010.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0966.6766.670.030.03
TulsaAmer0.100.0977.7875.110.060.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0951.7252.550.000.00
PacificWCC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
TempleAmer0.100.0968.9768.620.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0960.7160.300.020.02
DavidsonA100.100.0976.9276.700.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.100.0946.1544.42-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0930.7730.77-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0946.4346.72-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0940.7440.42-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.060.0955.5656.790.010.01
UMBCAE0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0975.0074.800.030.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0978.5779.260.050.05
ElonCAA0.090.0841.3841.38-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0871.4370.330.040.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0875.8674.180.050.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0742.8642.04-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0738.4639.08-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.040.0767.8668.250.010.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0753.8555.410.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0765.5264.790.020.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0741.6741.69-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0730.7731.17-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0755.5655.060.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0664.2964.290.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0640.7440.36-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0678.5777.420.040.03
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0615.3816.36-0.05-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0661.9061.010.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0665.5264.540.020.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0645.8344.51-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0633.3331.68-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0658.6257.160.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0623.0823.78-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0658.6259.650.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0642.8641.90-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0675.0074.360.040.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0629.6331.53-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0653.8555.980.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0640.0040.15-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0685.7185.710.050.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0668.9768.760.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0657.6958.420.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0635.7134.55-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0662.0762.640.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0682.7681.280.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0651.7249.620.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0646.1544.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0679.3178.080.040.03
Ball St.MAC0.030.0623.0824.74-0.02-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0616.1316.13-0.02-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.3393.330.050.05
IonaMAAC0.070.0677.4277.420.040.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.030.0651.7251.720.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0628.0028.98-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0629.6328.88-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0654.5554.790.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0657.1455.070.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0662.0759.850.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0644.8346.86-0.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0658.6255.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0675.0075.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0658.6258.890.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0657.1456.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0678.5778.530.040.03
StanfordP120.060.0664.2961.970.020.01
UtahP120.030.0677.7878.800.020.03
Washington St.P120.060.0642.8641.46-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0671.4370.550.030.02
KansasB120.060.0679.3177.530.030.03
NavyPat0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0659.2658.590.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.060.0658.6257.150.010.01
TexasB120.060.0658.6259.340.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0693.1092.710.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.040.0344.8343.41-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0324.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0335.7138.37-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.560.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0360.7160.050.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0344.4444.54-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0352.0052.010.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0344.0044.87-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0334.7838.23-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0339.2939.43-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.1549.32-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.47-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0328.5731.49-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1820.75-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0367.8665.680.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0384.0084.150.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.5754.430.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0330.7731.11-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0344.0045.85-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0315.3814.80-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.24-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.86-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0367.8666.170.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.5265.610.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.2962.980.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0362.9664.230.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0342.3142.97-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0372.4172.010.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0346.1547.65-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.35-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0357.1459.490.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.450.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0370.3768.780.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0389.6689.930.030.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0335.7136.97-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0324.1423.76-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0389.6688.510.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.990.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0341.3840.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.001.25-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.00-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0339.2940.47-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0362.0761.400.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0332.0031.17-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0334.4833.27-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.0075.360.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.17-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.0047.71-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0324.0024.53-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.6958.360.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.9337.15-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.220.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0342.3142.08-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0344.4443.81-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0340.7442.96-0.01-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0371.4369.990.010.01