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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:336.5
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:307
Current Record:3-18
Expected Record:5-23
Current Conf Record:0-9
Expected Conf Record:2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-15
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-19298.00.01%
8-20311.80.73%
7-21322.74.48%
6-22331.216.50%
5-23336.633.05%
4-24339.732.91%
3-25341.312.31%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Virginia (39.8)ACCA75-38L0%0.0
11-19Gardner Webb (269.3)BSthH73-68W100%0.0
11-22Baylor (6.6)B12A70-50L0%0.0
11-26Kennesaw St. (318.8)ASunA98-104W100%0.0
11-29Georgia St. (123.3)CAAH54-85L0%0.0
12-2Longwood (318.3)indA92-81L0%0.0
12-5Norfolk St. (130.0)MEACA82-67L0%0.0
12-10Gardner Webb (269.3)BSthA87-57L0%0.0
12-17Pittsburgh (68.6)BEA69-55L0%0.0
12-21Oklahoma (93.0)B12A83-48L0%0.0
12-29Hawaii (186.2)WACA100-73L0%0.0
1-3South Carolina (172.6)SECA79-51L0%0.0
1-7Morgan St. (276.6)MEACH68-73L0%0.0
1-9Coppin St. (215.7)MEACH61-82L0%0.0
1-14Bethune Cookman (264.7)MEACA82-76L0%0.0
1-16Florida A&M (324.7)MEACA86-69L0%0.0
1-21Savannah St. (210.3)MEACA83-53L0%0.0
1-24Hampton (310.6)MEACA78-66L0%0.0
1-30Howard (301.0)MEACH76-82L0%0.0
2-4Savannah St. (210.3)MEACH60-73L0%0.0
2-6Longwood (318.3)indH74-58W100%0.0
2-11North Carolina A&T (272.6)MEACA0-017%-10.4
2-13North Carolina Central (229.3)MEACA0-06%-16.6
2-18Bethune Cookman (264.7)MEACH0-029%-6.0
2-20Florida A&M (324.7)MEACH0-052%0.4
2-25North Carolina A&T (272.6)MEACH0-036%-3.8
2-27North Carolina Central (229.3)MEACH0-018%-10.0
3-1Delaware St. (273.1)MEACA0-012%-12.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.4526.3314.9416.27-18.55-17.76
Savannah St.MEAC5.254.3150.0055.310.000.46
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.654.2833.3337.67-0.88-1.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.444.2831.8231.89-0.16-1.55
Florida A&MMEAC2.604.2419.0520.82-1.61-2.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.394.2442.1142.39-0.06-0.64
Gardner WebbBSth4.873.6733.3337.90-1.62-0.89
Longwoodind4.873.6626.3223.85-2.31-1.91
HamptonMEAC3.002.4431.8235.01-1.09-0.73
Norfolk St.MEAC2.832.4068.1869.371.030.93
Delaware St.MEAC0.262.3938.8939.63-0.06-0.50
HowardMEAC2.762.3718.1822.88-1.76-1.28
Coppin St.MEAC2.862.3538.8947.77-0.63-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC2.812.3420.0031.21-1.69-0.88
BaylorB122.491.9190.4883.352.011.27
OklahomaB122.501.8854.5552.350.230.09
VirginiaACC2.491.8580.9575.991.540.96
HawaiiWAC2.381.8555.0051.280.240.05
Georgia St.CAA2.381.7965.2268.660.720.67
Kennesaw St.ASun2.381.798.7011.27-1.97-1.38
PittsburghBE2.381.7960.8758.170.520.29
South CarolinaSEC2.381.7938.1037.52-0.57-0.45
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.320.7119.0519.39-0.20-0.43
North FloridaASun0.270.2548.0048.07-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.320.2530.4329.57-0.12-0.10
IndianaB100.260.2275.0075.730.130.12
ChattanoogaSC0.370.2227.2735.05-0.17-0.07
Virginia Military InstBSth0.270.2245.0044.18-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.270.2254.1747.950.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.2050.0051.750.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.220.1939.1342.16-0.05-0.03
CampbellBSth0.210.1957.6958.270.030.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.160.1890.9187.780.130.14
ClemsonACC0.270.1847.8345.51-0.01-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.210.1820.8323.61-0.12-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1635.0040.74-0.05-0.03
Seattleind0.050.1622.2232.99-0.03-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.100.1647.8343.63-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1647.8350.66-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.200.1527.2727.33-0.09-0.07
High PointBSth0.260.1531.8232.81-0.09-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.1517.3920.75-0.14-0.09
WinthropBSth0.260.1534.7834.75-0.08-0.05
KansasB120.210.1578.2678.420.120.09
Kansas St.B120.210.1573.9168.410.100.06
MissouriB120.210.1591.6787.920.170.11
Oklahoma St.B120.210.1547.8342.67-0.01-0.02
CharlotteA100.110.1350.0049.460.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.1370.8364.530.020.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1333.3338.39-0.04-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.1382.6184.580.030.09
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.1344.4441.65-0.01-0.02
NevadaWAC0.170.1380.9576.420.110.07
AkronMAC0.050.1368.1867.980.020.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.1347.8347.36-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1369.5765.880.070.04
OhioMAC0.110.1381.8277.180.070.07
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.1371.4366.550.020.04
ButlerHorz0.210.1250.0050.810.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1255.0060.350.010.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.1268.4268.620.080.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.1225.0028.48-0.03-0.05
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1268.1867.720.040.04
RadfordBSth0.100.128.7013.12-0.09-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.160.1252.0048.780.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.210.1280.9577.450.130.07
South FloridaBE0.050.1254.5548.540.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.150.1212.5013.42-0.11-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.160.1269.5765.180.060.04
LipscombASun0.150.1243.4843.89-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.210.1279.1778.050.120.07
Iowa St.B120.050.1270.8366.500.020.04
TexasB120.050.1262.5062.200.010.03
Texas A&MB120.160.1250.0045.200.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.110.1230.4325.84-0.04-0.06
San Jose St.WAC0.180.1027.2726.96-0.08-0.05
OregonP120.050.1069.5764.490.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.1081.8281.500.040.06
NavyPat0.170.109.5213.17-0.13-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1056.5253.060.010.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.170.1075.0076.020.080.05
TowsonCAA0.170.104.005.27-0.15-0.09
Seton HallBE0.110.0965.2263.650.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0945.4541.17-0.00-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.050.0947.6244.58-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0934.7837.27-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.110.0962.5062.070.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0940.9143.65-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0960.8759.850.020.02
WisconsinB100.160.0975.0074.010.080.04
MarquetteBE0.150.0980.0076.670.090.05
Virginia TechACC0.110.0956.5255.220.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.0940.0040.17-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0986.9683.300.040.06
South Carolina UpstateASun0.150.0956.5256.800.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0945.4544.56-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.100.0966.6765.980.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0744.4448.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0762.5062.420.030.02
ArmyPat0.110.0740.9141.68-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.110.0727.2723.78-0.05-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0717.3919.76-0.07-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.0714.2917.12-0.08-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.078.7012.14-0.09-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.0734.7835.19-0.03-0.02
North DakotaGWC0.000.0733.3341.30-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.060.0665.2262.350.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.420.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.000.069.0912.82-0.00-0.05
CreightonMVC0.000.0684.0082.620.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0647.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.060.0639.1344.46-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0650.0051.460.000.00
IowaB100.000.0654.1749.410.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0642.8643.52-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0634.7833.38-0.00-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.110.0682.6181.430.070.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0669.5769.000.020.02
PacificBW0.110.0635.0037.55-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0647.3752.90-0.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0647.6246.51-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0647.6248.48-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.060.0650.0052.950.000.00
XavierA100.110.0665.2263.690.030.02
Notre DameBE0.050.0665.2262.670.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0656.5255.970.010.01
AmericanPat0.100.0665.2263.790.030.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0660.0058.300.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.110.0625.0025.08-0.06-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.0626.0928.61-0.05-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.330.020.02
RiderMAAC0.100.0640.0039.70-0.02-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.0657.1449.570.02-0.00
BelmontASun0.050.0670.8373.740.020.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.0650.0052.040.000.00
FloridaSEC0.110.0679.1776.620.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0672.7371.570.020.03
George MasonCAA0.100.0676.0072.480.050.03
KentuckySEC0.110.0696.0093.530.100.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.270.010.01
MarylandACC0.000.0660.8753.440.000.00
MercerASun0.050.0672.0072.220.020.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0678.2672.280.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0639.1336.12-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0647.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.0654.5557.710.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0680.0078.080.060.03
CincinnatiBE0.100.0669.5765.370.040.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0668.0070.060.040.02
RutgersBE0.100.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.050.0679.1774.200.030.03
IllinoisB100.060.0469.5761.840.020.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0478.2674.290.040.02
PurdueB100.060.0462.5060.780.020.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0334.7832.05-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0347.6248.81-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0350.0056.750.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0340.9144.29-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0359.0957.690.010.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.060.0313.0414.47-0.04-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0371.4373.990.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.03100.0094.580.060.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6463.170.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0356.5253.760.010.00
UC DavisBW0.060.030.005.31-0.06-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.060.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4547.09-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.84-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0369.5770.160.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0330.4326.42-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.010.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0382.6179.930.040.02
ElonSC0.050.0352.3849.770.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.73-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.11-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0342.8643.11-0.01-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0332.0035.39-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0331.8232.98-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0318.1823.34-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0344.4445.20-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0366.6763.500.020.01
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.330.020.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.680.010.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0352.1758.490.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.110.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0363.6457.790.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0355.0054.450.010.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.770.030.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.75-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.61-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.480.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0330.0033.22-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.88-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.20-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.110.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.31-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.64-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.51-0.02-0.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.700.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.74-0.00-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.980.030.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0357.1460.720.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.18-0.02-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.590.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.40-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0356.5257.200.010.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0357.6958.540.010.00
DePaulBE0.050.0347.8342.19-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.380.010.00
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.830.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.450.020.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.800.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.75-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0343.4840.24-0.00-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.000.050.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00