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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:291.4
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:125
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11133.00.01%
16-12163.90.20%
15-13178.50.57%
14-14198.41.43%
13-15220.43.77%
12-16241.78.12%
11-17262.112.96%
10-18282.116.41%
9-19299.218.55%
8-20314.415.76%
7-21327.111.45%
6-22336.16.41%
5-23342.23.15%
4-24346.20.95%
3-25348.70.21%
2-26349.30.03%
1-27351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Washington (96.8)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (96.1)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-18Virginia (14.7)ACCA75-55L0%0.0
11-29Georgia Southern (223.2)SBA0-022%-9.5
12-2Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthA0-012%-14.1
12-6Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH0-082%11.0
12-8Bethune Cookman (325.7)MEACH0-065%4.7
12-11College of Charleston (127.4)CAAA0-08%-16.8
12-14Coastal Carolina (149.0)BSthH0-028%-6.9
12-17Texas Tech (160.3)B12A0-09%-16.0
12-19Houston (116.2)AmerA0-07%-18.0
12-22Abilene Christian (322.6)SlndN0-056%1.9
12-31Fordham (224.6)A10A0-018%-10.8
1-3Eastern Kentucky (128.3)OVCA0-010%-15.6
1-10North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACA0-09%-15.8
1-12North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACA0-050%-0.1
1-17Delaware St. (249.4)MEACA0-028%-7.1
1-19Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACA0-050%-0.1
1-24Norfolk St. (240.6)MEACH0-047%-0.8
1-26Hampton (241.8)MEACH0-045%-1.5
1-31Delaware St. (249.4)MEACH0-050%0.0
2-7Coppin St. (249.1)MEACA0-033%-5.4
2-9Morgan St. (264.9)MEACA0-026%-7.5
2-14Savannah St. (241.4)MEACA0-031%-5.9
2-21Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACH0-072%7.1
2-23Howard (305.9)MEACH0-060%3.2
2-28Savannah St. (241.4)MEACH0-054%1.3
3-6Bethune Cookman (325.7)MEACA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC39.5826.210.0036.87-39.58-6.89
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.1720.0027.00-0.00-1.92
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.1450.0040.530.00-0.78
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.1333.3343.33-0.00-0.55
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.110.0036.44-0.00-1.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.003.570.0062.14-0.000.87
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.450.0018.29-0.00-1.55
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.450.0023.21-0.00-1.31
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.450.0032.43-0.00-0.86
HowardMEAC0.002.440.0035.36-0.00-0.72
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.440.0039.22-0.00-0.53
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.440.0071.24-0.001.04
HamptonMEAC0.002.4125.0051.43-0.000.07
Norfolk St.MEAC2.082.4133.3345.60-0.69-0.21
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.88100.0063.080.000.49
FordhamA100.001.880.0033.39-0.00-0.62
HoustonAmer0.001.85100.0064.060.000.52
VirginiaACC16.671.82100.0074.8516.670.90
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.820.0028.18-0.00-0.79
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.7925.0055.16-0.000.18
Georgia SouthernSB0.001.790.0045.28-0.00-0.17
San FranciscoWCC16.671.790.0060.58-16.670.38
Texas TechB120.001.7966.6745.380.00-0.16
WashingtonP1216.671.79100.0055.9716.670.21
CampbellBSth0.000.230.0030.19-0.00-0.09
WinthropBSth0.000.2050.0060.360.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.19100.0073.530.000.09
TowsonCAA0.000.1875.0053.860.000.01
NJITind0.000.1825.0025.21-0.00-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1766.6768.980.000.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.160.0028.50-0.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.160.0032.07-0.00-0.06
UCFAmer0.000.16100.0046.730.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.16100.0071.440.000.07
TulaneAmer0.000.1650.0035.040.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.16100.0052.610.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1550.0033.700.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1566.6733.180.00-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1450.0054.970.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.1475.0055.790.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1433.3335.41-0.00-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1433.3322.74-0.00-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.0024.77-0.00-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1433.3345.63-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1450.0062.580.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1433.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0025.73-0.00-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.130.0031.61-0.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1333.3346.93-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1350.0049.760.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0078.630.000.07
Rhode IslandA100.000.13100.0056.240.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.13100.0051.050.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1266.6762.810.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1266.6754.240.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1275.0060.550.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0041.630.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA2.080.1266.6746.540.69-0.01
VCUA100.000.12100.0073.570.000.06
DelawareCAA0.000.120.0029.55-0.00-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0019.92-0.00-0.06
UCLAP120.000.10100.0062.510.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6740.400.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1050.0031.810.00-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0039.36-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1033.3321.74-0.00-0.06
BYUWCC0.000.10100.0070.030.000.04
MarylandB100.000.10100.0064.500.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.1050.0029.910.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.10100.0050.830.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0063.820.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0067.100.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0071.830.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1066.6748.330.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.1066.6760.720.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.10100.0046.040.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0975.0054.790.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0966.6753.050.000.01
La SalleA100.000.09100.0053.840.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0056.330.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0966.6758.230.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0056.24-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0076.190.000.05
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0053.040.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0033.55-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0047.13-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0950.0053.100.000.01
BaylorB120.000.09100.0069.300.000.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0933.3336.55-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0950.0058.120.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0080.090.000.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6752.550.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.090.0036.19-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6744.970.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.09100.0045.790.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0028.08-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.09100.0067.570.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0766.6755.980.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0033.25-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0057.63-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.070.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6748.850.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.070.0045.18-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0057.060.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.48-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.07100.0073.290.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6773.760.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0087.190.000.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0052.260.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.070.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3327.10-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0725.0059.16-0.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0051.660.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0766.6767.990.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0750.0044.850.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0034.07-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0050.76-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.160.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6768.230.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.040.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.840.000.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.830.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.640.000.03
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0675.0060.410.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0037.110.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.03
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.700.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.00-0.000.00
George WashingtonA102.080.0666.6776.510.690.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3357.45-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0074.620.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.36-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0068.160.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0061.790.000.01
NavyPat0.000.060.0032.62-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3343.68-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.740.000.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.850.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0433.3336.99-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0044.91-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0050.420.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.250.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0069.320.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0049.250.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0070.980.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0071.340.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC4.170.0333.3349.04-1.39-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.64-0.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3364.76-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.480.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.130.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0065.570.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0053.10-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.990.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.790.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.070.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0070.850.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.890.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0031.980.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.860.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.15-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01