South Carolina St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	342.0
Current RPI:	342
Expected SOS:	289
Current SOS:	289
Current Record:	4-24
Expected Record:	4-24
Current Conf Record:	2-15
Expected Conf Record:	2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-13
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	309
Expected OOC SOS:	198

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-24	342.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	65-67	L	0%
11-18	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	77-74	W	100%
11-20	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	55-83	L	0%
11-24	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	72-63	L	0%
11-28	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	74-72	W	100%
12-3	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	72-78	L	0%
12-8	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	61-46	L	0%
12-12	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	70-61	L	0%
12-17	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	102-51	L	0%
12-19	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	90-46	L	0%
12-23	Clemson (185.0)	ACC	A	77-41	L	0%
1-5	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	80-69	L	0%
1-12	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	A	76-60	L	0%
1-14	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	A	79-58	L	0%
1-19	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	52-60	L	0%
1-21	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	77-89	L	0%
1-26	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	49-64	L	0%
1-30	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	H	60-64	L	0%
2-4	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	A	57-45	L	0%
2-9	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	50-46	L	0%
2-16	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	72-70	W	100%
2-18	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	52-71	L	0%
2-23	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	85-75	L	0%
2-25	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	A	75-72	L	0%
3-2	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	58-35	L	0%
3-4	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	A	62-54	L	0%
3-7	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	62-60	W	100%
3-11	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	N	61-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Carolina St.	MEAC	26.28	26.28	10.17	10.17	-20.94	-20.94
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	4.50	4.50	53.12	53.12	0.28	0.28
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	4.30	4.30	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
Florida A&M	MEAC	4.28	4.28	14.81	14.81	-3.01	-3.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.27	4.27	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Morgan St.	MEAC	4.26	4.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	4.25	4.25	65.38	65.38	1.31	1.31
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	3.62	3.62	47.83	47.83	-0.16	-0.16
Albany	AE	3.57	3.57	68.75	68.75	1.34	1.34
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.47	2.47	43.33	43.33	-0.33	-0.33
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.41	2.41	20.00	20.00	-1.45	-1.45
Hampton	MEAC	2.40	2.40	43.33	43.33	-0.32	-0.32
Howard	MEAC	2.39	2.39	17.86	17.86	-1.54	-1.54
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.38	2.38	64.52	64.52	0.69	0.69
South Carolina	SEC	1.95	1.95	41.94	41.94	-0.32	-0.32
Clemson	ACC	1.90	1.90	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Jacksonville	ASun	1.87	1.87	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Iowa	B10	1.85	1.85	62.50	62.50	0.46	0.46
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.85	1.85	6.90	6.90	-1.59	-1.59
Maryland	ACC	1.84	1.84	63.64	63.64	0.50	0.50
Missouri	SEC	1.84	1.84	68.75	68.75	0.69	0.69
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.75	0.75	7.14	7.14	-0.64	-0.64
Utah Valley	GWC	0.32	0.32	35.71	35.71	-0.09	-0.09
North Florida	ASun	0.29	0.29	38.71	38.71	-0.07	-0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.24	0.24	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.21	0.21	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.20	0.20	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
New Orleans	ind	0.20	0.20	18.18	18.18	-0.13	-0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.18	0.18	76.67	76.67	0.10	0.10
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.17	0.17	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.16	0.16	23.33	23.33	-0.09	-0.09
Maine	AE	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	6.90	6.90	-0.09	-0.09
Hartford	AE	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01