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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:306.7
Current RPI:283
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:160
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13188.60.07%
14-14205.20.30%
13-15224.61.09%
12-16247.13.17%
11-17268.37.85%
10-18287.314.29%
9-19303.019.88%
8-20315.920.11%
7-21325.317.15%
6-22333.110.19%
5-23339.44.40%
4-24344.41.27%
3-25347.60.20%
2-26349.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Washington (39.9)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (123.6)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-18Virginia (7.3)ACCA75-55L0%0.0
11-29Georgia Southern (136.0)SBA71-58L0%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (135.8)BSthA66-52L0%0.0
12-6Florida A&M (348.9)MEACH70-61W100%0.0
12-8Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACH71-66W100%0.0
12-11College of Charleston (183.9)CAAA50-47L0%0.0
12-14Coastal Carolina (135.8)BSthH43-57L0%0.0
12-17Texas Tech (87.7)B12A101-39L0%0.0
12-19Houston (204.7)AmerA0-013%-13.3
12-22Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndN0-062%3.6
12-31Fordham (260.3)A10A0-020%-9.9
1-3Eastern Kentucky (173.8)OVCA0-08%-16.6
1-10North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACA0-06%-18.5
1-12North Carolina A&T (335.7)MEACA0-039%-3.2
1-17Delaware St. (247.9)MEACA0-022%-9.0
1-19Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACA0-021%-9.3
1-24Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH0-031%-5.8
1-26Hampton (246.4)MEACH0-040%-2.9
1-31Delaware St. (247.9)MEACH0-049%-0.3
2-7Coppin St. (335.0)MEACA0-054%1.2
2-9Morgan St. (303.9)MEACA0-025%-8.1
2-14Savannah St. (320.4)MEACA0-043%-2.0
2-21Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACH0-048%-0.6
2-23Howard (275.2)MEACH0-047%-0.8
2-28Savannah St. (320.4)MEACH0-072%6.7
3-6Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACA0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC28.6826.1917.6533.09-18.56-8.86
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.1641.6742.88-0.00-0.59
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.1318.1826.90-0.00-1.91
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.1240.0045.42-0.00-0.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC5.004.1022.2234.17-2.78-1.30
Coastal CarolinaBSth10.003.5740.0068.14-2.001.30
Florida A&MMEAC5.002.440.0012.80-5.00-1.81
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.440.0021.81-0.00-1.37
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.440.0013.64-0.00-1.77
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.4344.4469.15-0.000.93
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4318.1834.64-0.00-0.75
HowardMEAC0.002.4330.0043.58-0.00-0.31
Norfolk St.MEAC0.252.4050.0055.890.000.28
HamptonMEAC0.002.4040.0049.99-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.8842.8654.24-0.000.16
FordhamA100.001.8828.5726.34-0.00-0.89
HoustonAmer0.001.8571.4347.490.00-0.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.8216.6718.98-0.00-1.13
VirginiaACC5.001.82100.0084.805.001.26
College of CharlestonCAA5.001.7944.4443.07-0.56-0.25
Georgia SouthernSB5.001.7960.0061.121.000.40
San FranciscoWCC5.001.7944.4452.20-0.560.08
Texas TechB125.001.7987.5054.393.750.16
WashingtonP125.001.79100.0070.855.000.74
CampbellBSth0.250.2325.0044.59-0.13-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.2028.5747.31-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.1990.0075.520.000.10
NJITind0.000.1836.3640.98-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.250.1866.6751.430.080.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1725.0034.77-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.250.1737.5050.40-0.060.00
StetsonASun0.690.1610.0027.42-0.56-0.07
UCFAmer0.670.1655.5634.940.07-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.160.0016.85-0.25-0.10
TulaneAmer0.000.1687.5054.790.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.1528.5731.23-0.00-0.06
OregonP120.000.1566.6758.060.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.250.1562.5066.700.060.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1555.5638.130.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1442.8649.98-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.1462.5056.410.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1420.0026.57-0.00-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.710.1433.3345.28-0.24-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.008.63-0.00-0.11
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1414.2945.19-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.1350.0055.810.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1355.5638.600.00-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.1320.0039.70-0.15-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.530.1336.3644.53-0.14-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1362.5073.190.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.1233.3349.71-0.08-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1260.0037.220.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0085.330.000.09
USC UpstateASun0.280.1260.0064.620.060.04
LSUSEC0.280.1280.0064.110.170.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1250.0038.000.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1277.7878.540.000.07
VCUA100.250.1270.0071.420.100.05
DelawareCAA0.000.120.007.39-0.00-0.10
James MadisonCAA0.250.1270.0060.790.100.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0017.51-0.00-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0036.67-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1037.5034.19-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.990.1044.4436.35-0.11-0.03
UCLAP120.710.1072.7357.280.320.01
IUPUISum0.000.1020.0026.33-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.420.1072.7365.930.190.03
South FloridaAmer0.420.1044.4444.78-0.05-0.01
MarylandB100.250.0990.9167.660.200.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0910.0018.01-0.00-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0940.0050.78-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.300.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0977.7869.190.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0955.5659.990.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0056.800.000.01
La SalleA100.250.0950.0049.960.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.250.0944.4456.51-0.030.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0975.0058.430.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0937.5038.60-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.250.0966.6754.830.080.01
JacksonvilleASun0.250.0910.0018.58-0.20-0.06
North FloridaASun0.250.0944.4456.91-0.030.01
San DiegoWCC0.280.0954.5557.300.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0922.2240.44-0.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0963.6455.600.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.250.0950.0057.510.000.01
Arizona St.P120.250.0960.0053.820.050.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.79-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0971.4357.100.000.01
PacificWCC0.280.0950.0038.180.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0987.5077.020.000.05
The CitadelSC0.250.0916.6730.84-0.17-0.03
BaylorB120.000.0990.0073.870.000.04
ColoradoP120.250.0966.6758.240.080.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0065.410.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.0910.0020.91-0.00-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1456.750.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0977.7867.290.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0937.5037.96-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0988.8981.310.000.06
West VirginiaB120.250.0990.0066.940.200.03
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3345.50-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.710.0744.4451.58-0.080.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.290.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0742.8652.71-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.710.0770.0052.610.290.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0050.330.000.00
TroySB0.000.0733.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5654.950.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.970.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0771.4363.890.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0775.0074.340.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0714.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0718.1846.16-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0074.000.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0711.1144.04-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0049.620.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0725.0028.68-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.420.0744.4451.04-0.050.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.790.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.630.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.500.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.280.060.0037.73-0.28-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8643.10-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.250.0677.7871.110.140.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.250.0666.6766.340.080.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.50-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0622.2230.85-0.14-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.43-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.410.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
George MasonA100.250.0625.0025.93-0.13-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.24-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.280.0666.6745.670.09-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.530.0666.6777.030.180.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.250.0660.0064.610.050.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
UtahP120.000.0677.7879.480.000.04
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.86-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.29-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.58-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0318.1844.62-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0038.46-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8642.32-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0054.230.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5051.81-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5065.040.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.26-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.19-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.250.0342.8638.75-0.04-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.250.0375.0071.730.130.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
MontanaBSky0.250.0325.0052.09-0.130.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0336.3664.92-0.080.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.400.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.0328.5757.26-0.120.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.250.0350.0041.830.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.20-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
WyomingMWC0.280.0377.7873.370.150.01
Air ForceMWC0.280.0357.1461.670.040.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0080.590.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0330.0029.80-0.11-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.350.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.030.008.88-0.28-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.280.0340.0050.07-0.060.00
Loyola MDPat0.280.0333.3327.70-0.09-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.870.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.280.0337.5040.20-0.07-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.050.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.280.030.0039.41-0.28-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0052.800.000.00
RutgersB100.250.0360.0035.070.05-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0370.0072.830.110.01
San Jose St.MWC0.280.030.007.84-0.28-0.03
SeattleWAC0.280.0337.5046.50-0.07-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3354.74-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.78-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.280.0366.6772.670.090.01
FurmanSC0.250.0325.0029.59-0.13-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.250.0377.7865.390.140.01