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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:323
Current Record:7-21
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-15
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21331.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Marshall (276.0)CUSAA85-69L0%0.0
11-12Michigan (11.0)B10A93-59L0%0.0
11-17Nebraska (48.0)B10A83-57L0%0.0
11-19Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA91-59L0%0.0
11-25Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH67-83L0%0.0
12-3Clemson (79.0)ACCA65-49L0%0.0
12-7Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH61-79L0%0.0
12-17Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH83-78W100%0.0
12-23Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA61-47L0%0.0
12-30Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA58-68W100%0.0
1-3South Carolina (140.0)SECA82-75L0%0.0
1-8Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH78-71W100%0.0
1-11Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA73-56L0%0.0
1-13Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA75-69L0%0.0
1-18Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH72-78L0%0.0
1-20Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH69-67W100%0.0
1-25Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH73-61W100%0.0
1-27Hampton (204.0)MEACH56-67L0%0.0
2-1Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA59-63W100%0.0
2-3Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA91-59L0%0.0
2-8Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA61-53L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH53-67L0%0.0
2-17North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH75-70W100%0.0
2-22Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH65-75L0%0.0
3-1North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA86-44L0%0.0
3-3North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA62-60L0%0.0
3-6Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA69-50L0%0.0
3-10Savannah St. (273.0)MEACN61-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.3726.3724.5824.58-13.41-13.41
Savannah St.MEAC6.016.0129.6329.63-2.45-2.45
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.344.3482.7682.762.852.85
Florida A&MMEAC4.344.3439.2939.29-0.93-0.93
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.284.2824.1424.14-2.22-2.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.284.2814.2914.29-3.06-3.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.603.6064.2964.291.031.03
Nebraska OmahaSum3.573.5744.0044.00-0.43-0.43
Norfolk St.MEAC2.502.5055.1755.170.260.26
Coppin St.MEAC2.502.5033.3333.33-0.83-0.83
Morgan St.MEAC2.442.4446.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Delaware St.MEAC2.442.4422.2222.22-1.35-1.35
HamptonMEAC2.412.4158.6258.620.420.42
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.352.3518.5218.52-1.48-1.48
ClemsonACC1.901.9061.2961.290.430.43
MichiganB101.871.8775.0075.000.940.94
JacksonvilleASun1.851.8533.3333.33-0.62-0.62
Georgia SouthernSC1.841.8436.6736.67-0.49-0.49
South CarolinaSEC1.841.8439.3939.39-0.39-0.39
NebraskaB101.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
MarshallCUSA1.811.8126.6726.67-0.85-0.85
HowardMEAC0.770.7719.3519.35-0.47-0.47
North FloridaASun0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.270.2756.6756.670.040.04
NJITind0.240.2436.0036.00-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
StetsonASun0.210.2122.5822.58-0.12-0.12
MinnesotaB100.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
CampbellBSth0.210.2132.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
IUPUISum0.190.1910.3410.34-0.15-0.15
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
FIUCUSA0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
Georgia TechACC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
MississippiSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Ohio St.B100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
AuburnSEC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.150.1555.5655.560.020.02
RadfordBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UABCUSA0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
PittsburghACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
HawaiiBW0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
The CitadelSC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
DavidsonSC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0724.0024.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01