live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:203.0
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:328
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14203.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA74-54L0%0.0
11-20Longwood (323.0)BSthN83-77W100%0.0
11-21Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA92-82L0%0.0
11-22Ball St. (179.0)MACN72-60L0%0.0
11-29Kansas St. (92.0)B12A68-66L0%0.0
12-5Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA67-79W100%0.0
12-7Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA69-54L0%0.0
12-12Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH81-74W100%0.0
12-16Duquesne (162.0)A10A83-68L0%0.0
12-19St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A64-45L0%0.0
12-22East Carolina (217.0)AmerA98-71L0%0.0
12-27Ohio St. (74.0)B10A73-57L0%0.0
12-30Akron (34.0)MACA78-68L0%0.0
1-2Miami OH (195.0)MACA67-71W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH91-75W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH92-85W100%0.0
1-16Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH90-79W100%0.0
1-18Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH68-63W100%0.0
1-23Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA87-74L0%0.0
1-25Hampton (155.0)MEACA62-67W100%0.0
1-30Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA41-56W100%0.0
2-6Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH88-83W100%0.0
2-8Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH82-78W100%0.0
2-13Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH57-60L0%0.0
2-20Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA58-62W100%0.0
2-22Howard (328.0)MEACA63-71W100%0.0
2-27Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA76-64L0%0.0
3-3Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH85-72W100%0.0
3-10Coppin St. (326.0)MEACN90-80W100%0.0
3-11Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA65-67W100%0.0
3-12Hampton (155.0)MEACN81-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.2026.2062.4162.416.506.50
Savannah St.MEAC3.963.9644.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Coppin St.MEAC3.953.9525.9325.93-1.90-1.90
HamptonMEAC3.933.9367.8667.861.401.40
Delaware St.MEAC3.903.9017.8617.86-2.51-2.51
Norfolk St.MEAC3.883.8848.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.883.8839.2939.29-0.83-0.83
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.853.8531.0331.03-1.46-1.46
Morgan St.MEAC2.422.4227.5927.59-1.08-1.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.352.3533.3333.33-0.78-0.78
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.342.3435.7135.71-0.67-0.67
HowardMEAC2.342.3434.4834.48-0.73-0.73
Florida A&MMEAC2.292.2923.0823.08-1.23-1.23
AkronMAC1.801.8075.0075.000.900.90
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.781.7844.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Ball St.MAC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
Miami OHMAC1.741.7438.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Kansas St.B121.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun1.701.7044.4444.44-0.19-0.19
DuquesneA101.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
East CarolinaAmer1.671.6735.4835.48-0.48-0.48
LongwoodBSth1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
St. BonaventureA101.661.6672.4172.410.750.75
College of CharlestonCAA1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
Ohio St.B101.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
OhioMAC0.230.2364.5264.520.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
ToledoMAC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
StetsonASun0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1862.8662.860.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1679.3179.310.090.09
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
LipscombASun0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
RichmondA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
DavidsonA100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
MissouriSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
UMBCAE0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Saint LouisA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Michigan St.B100.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
High PointBSth0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01