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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:320.0
Current RPI:320
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:333
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22320.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Washington (126.0)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-16San Francisco (181.0)WCCA91-52L0%0.0
11-18Virginia (7.0)ACCA75-55L0%0.0
11-29Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA71-58L0%0.0
12-2Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthA66-52L0%0.0
12-6Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH70-61W100%0.0
12-8Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH71-66W100%0.0
12-11College of Charleston (298.0)CAAA50-47L0%0.0
12-14Coastal Carolina (124.0)BSthH43-57L0%0.0
12-17Texas Tech (183.0)B12A101-39L0%0.0
12-20Houston (239.0)AmerA63-71W100%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndN65-59L0%0.0
12-23Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyN66-56L0%0.0
12-31Fordham (238.0)A10A74-54L0%0.0
1-3Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA63-52L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA76-45L0%0.0
1-12North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA50-52W100%0.0
1-17Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA60-49L0%0.0
1-19Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA72-73W100%0.0
1-24Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH63-76L0%0.0
1-26Hampton (251.0)MEACH65-56W100%0.0
1-31Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH78-74W100%0.0
2-7Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA77-74L0%0.0
2-9Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA55-43L0%0.0
2-14Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA53-56W100%0.0
2-21Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH56-68L0%0.0
2-23Howard (255.0)MEACH65-75L0%0.0
2-28Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH57-68L0%0.0
3-5Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA72-62L0%0.0
3-10North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACN63-54W100%0.0
3-11Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACN68-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.2026.2032.8532.85-8.99-8.99
Delaware St.MEAC3.893.8948.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Savannah St.MEAC3.833.8322.2222.22-2.13-2.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.813.8125.0025.00-1.91-1.91
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.803.8056.6756.670.510.51
Norfolk St.MEAC3.803.8055.1755.170.390.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.783.7828.5728.57-1.62-1.62
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.233.2366.6766.671.081.08
HamptonMEAC2.402.4050.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.332.3375.0075.001.161.16
Coppin St.MEAC2.332.3320.6920.69-1.36-1.36
HowardMEAC2.292.2942.8642.86-0.33-0.33
Morgan St.MEAC2.272.2720.0020.00-1.36-1.36
Florida A&MMEAC2.252.257.147.14-1.93-1.93
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.721.7259.2659.260.320.32
HoustonAmer1.691.6941.9441.94-0.27-0.27
FordhamA101.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
VirginiaACC1.661.6690.3290.321.341.34
Southern UtahBSky1.641.6429.6329.63-0.67-0.67
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
Texas TechB121.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
College of CharlestonCAA1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
Georgia SouthernSB1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
San FranciscoWCC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
WashingtonP121.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.180.1824.1424.14-0.10-0.10
UNC AshevilleBSth0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Miami FLACC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
TulaneAmer0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
NJITind0.150.1556.0056.000.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
StetsonASun0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
LibertyBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
UCFAmer0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
HofstraCAA0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
High PointBSth0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1118.7518.75-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01