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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:206.5
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:321
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11174.38.89%
16-12190.929.15%
15-13208.536.54%
14-14227.719.88%
13-15249.25.04%
12-16271.20.49%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13College of Charleston (94.7)CAAA74-54L0%0.0
11-20Longwood (319.1)BSthN83-77W100%0.0
11-21Eastern Kentucky (197.3)OVCA92-82L0%0.0
11-22Ball St. (156.5)MACN72-60L0%0.0
11-29Kansas St. (61.1)B12A68-66L0%0.0
12-5Florida A&M (347.3)MEACA67-79W100%0.0
12-7Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACA69-54L0%0.0
12-12Jacksonville (242.7)ASunH81-74W100%0.0
12-16Duquesne (112.9)A10A83-68L0%0.0
12-19St. Bonaventure (52.0)A10A64-45L0%0.0
12-22East Carolina (186.0)AmerA98-71L0%0.0
12-27Ohio St. (96.3)B10A73-57L0%0.0
12-30Akron (35.4)MACA78-68L0%0.0
1-2Miami OH (232.8)MACA67-71W100%0.0
1-9North Carolina Central (321.4)MEACH91-75W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACH92-85W100%0.0
1-16Delaware St. (349.1)MEACH90-79W100%0.0
1-18Maryland Eastern Shore (275.3)MEACH68-63W100%0.0
1-23Norfolk St. (207.4)MEACA87-74L0%0.0
1-25Hampton (193.0)MEACA62-67W100%0.0
1-30Delaware St. (349.1)MEACA41-56W100%0.0
2-6Coppin St. (327.5)MEACH88-83W100%0.0
2-8Morgan St. (332.4)MEACH82-78W100%0.0
2-13Savannah St. (329.3)MEACH0-083%10.3
2-20Maryland Eastern Shore (275.3)MEACA0-050%-0.1
2-22Howard (297.7)MEACA0-048%-0.6
2-27Savannah St. (329.3)MEACA0-063%3.6
3-3Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACH0-073%6.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.2326.1360.6762.315.606.44
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.674.1928.5734.13-1.14-1.33
Delaware St.MEAC4.604.1510.0013.16-3.68-3.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.644.1538.1038.58-0.15-0.95
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.574.1430.4334.37-1.01-1.30
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.572.5030.4334.28-1.00-0.79
Coppin St.MEAC2.662.4815.0021.46-1.86-1.41
Morgan St.MEAC2.522.4320.0026.85-1.51-1.12
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.512.4326.3234.50-1.19-0.75
HamptonMEAC2.572.4261.9063.680.610.66
Norfolk St.MEAC2.522.4040.9148.89-0.46-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC2.632.4026.3226.14-1.24-1.15
HowardMEAC0.492.3936.3638.43-0.13-0.55
AkronMAC2.371.9780.9579.341.471.16
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.321.9550.0048.530.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC2.371.9461.9057.820.560.30
Miami OHMAC2.271.9033.3331.52-0.76-0.70
JacksonvilleASun2.281.8852.3851.770.110.07
Kansas St.B122.271.8859.0956.980.410.26
East CarolinaAmer2.271.8540.9140.07-0.41-0.37
DuquesneA102.231.8561.9054.930.530.18
LongwoodBSth2.271.8523.8125.89-1.19-0.89
St. BonaventureA102.221.8570.0067.840.890.66
College of CharlestonCAA2.221.8161.9059.490.530.34
Ohio St.B102.171.7956.5252.590.280.09
OhioMAC0.200.2461.9059.450.050.05
ToledoMAC0.240.2459.0960.100.040.05
StetsonASun0.200.2223.8127.69-0.10-0.10
BuffaloMAC0.250.2159.0958.870.040.04
CampbellBSth0.200.2028.5729.64-0.09-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.240.1956.5262.790.030.05
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1850.0051.190.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.140.1863.6459.460.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1863.1658.810.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.1620.0019.67-0.03-0.10
MissouriSEC0.090.1634.7830.38-0.03-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.1682.6181.140.130.10
UMBCAE0.140.1624.0026.33-0.07-0.07
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1566.6765.220.050.05
RichmondA100.150.1554.5554.490.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.200.1536.8441.40-0.05-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1582.6178.890.060.09
Western MichiganMAC0.200.1533.3335.47-0.07-0.04
DaytonA100.150.1586.3682.380.110.10
Saint LouisA100.200.1536.3633.47-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.190.1552.3845.690.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.190.1582.6179.560.120.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1552.3847.040.01-0.01
UtahP120.100.1369.5767.490.040.05
TowsonCAA0.200.1365.2259.750.060.03
William & MaryCAA0.150.1371.4369.860.060.05
BaylorB120.050.1372.7366.460.020.04
LipscombASun0.150.1325.0029.27-0.07-0.05
DelawareCAA0.150.1321.7423.33-0.08-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.140.1222.7323.24-0.08-0.07
MassachusettsA100.050.1240.9139.35-0.01-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1276.1973.410.070.06
DavidsonA100.200.1260.0057.950.040.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1270.8370.840.040.05
MarylandB100.140.1287.5083.700.100.08
Michigan St.B100.050.1283.3383.030.030.08
TCUB120.100.1245.8339.31-0.01-0.03
TempleAmer0.190.1263.6459.840.050.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1021.7423.39-0.06-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1065.2267.160.030.03
HoustonAmer0.160.1069.5766.530.060.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.1050.0054.210.000.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1065.0063.440.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1054.5550.100.010.00
High PointBSth0.100.1055.0057.480.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.1050.0051.290.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0955.0052.260.010.00
AmericanPat0.090.0930.4331.91-0.04-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.0965.2264.210.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0940.9143.53-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.0950.0051.180.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.100.0931.8230.06-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.150.0945.8341.65-0.01-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0925.0024.35-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.100.0970.8369.500.040.04
George MasonA100.150.0934.7834.14-0.05-0.03
Iowa St.B120.100.0973.9170.050.050.04
PittsburghACC0.090.0976.1968.210.050.03
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0950.0049.450.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0947.8350.14-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.100.0990.9186.160.080.07
PurdueB100.090.0979.1776.510.050.05
MichiganB100.100.0969.5766.240.040.03
NebraskaB100.100.0954.1751.850.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0978.2674.430.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0945.8342.26-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0921.7420.35-0.03-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0968.1866.690.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.0922.7327.19-0.08-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.0915.0018.08-0.10-0.06
MemphisAmer0.090.0960.8760.780.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0742.8639.19-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0740.0039.00-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0782.6179.220.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.100.0752.1751.940.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0726.0929.19-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.0747.6252.07-0.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0754.1755.240.000.01
NavyPat0.100.0662.5062.390.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0659.0959.350.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0620.0022.32-0.06-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.14-0.08-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.0672.2274.700.040.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0660.0060.100.020.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.56-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0625.0026.86-0.02-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0665.2266.170.030.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0665.2262.840.030.02
IowaB100.050.0682.6180.590.030.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.720.040.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0665.2266.070.030.02
IPFWSum0.100.0670.8368.570.040.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0623.8126.57-0.05-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0642.8642.01-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0631.5831.08-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.1754.120.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.100.0661.9059.630.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.770.010.00
LamarSlnd0.100.0630.0029.25-0.04-0.03
PennIvy0.100.0638.8937.62-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.42-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
VirginiaACC0.100.0682.6178.070.060.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0652.1751.960.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.45-0.03-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0624.0024.50-0.05-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0633.3335.08-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0656.5256.630.010.01
VCUA100.100.0673.9173.910.050.03
BelmontOVC0.040.0666.6766.540.010.02
IUPUISum0.100.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0650.0052.350.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0627.7834.19-0.04-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0666.6762.630.010.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.27-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0634.7840.93-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.560.040.03
Penn St.B100.090.0650.0046.710.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0673.9172.490.040.03
IllinoisB100.090.0645.8344.12-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.600.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.440.020.02
OklahomaB120.090.0686.9682.610.070.04
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.220.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.170.010.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0633.3332.31-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0665.2261.430.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0435.0034.72-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0440.0040.30-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0440.9145.29-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0441.6742.60-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0415.0026.98-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0472.0070.510.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.800.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.08-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.300.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.360.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.850.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.36-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0322.7324.79-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0321.0527.79-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.1140.18-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.76-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0335.0038.49-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0384.2181.700.000.02
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.020.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.12-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0381.8276.750.030.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.040.010.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.10-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.27-0.01-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0334.7837.17-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.140.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.140.030.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.580.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.90-0.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.940.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0337.5040.54-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.73-0.03-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0354.5556.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.760.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.70-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.74-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0313.6415.79-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.360.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.340.040.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.660.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.060.020.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.70-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.840.010.00