South Carolina St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	336.5
Current RPI:	334
Expected SOS:	320
Current SOS:	307
Current Record:	3-18
Expected Record:	5-23
Current Conf Record:	0-9
Expected Conf Record:	2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.04%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-15
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	279
Expected OOC SOS:	239

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-19	298.0	0.01%
8-20	311.8	0.73%
7-21	322.7	4.48%
6-22	331.2	16.50%
5-23	336.6	33.05%
4-24	339.7	32.91%
3-25	341.3	12.31%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Virginia (39.8)	ACC	A	75-38	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	H	73-68	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Baylor (6.6)	B12	A	70-50	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	A	98-104	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Georgia St. (123.3)	CAA	H	54-85	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Longwood (318.3)	ind	A	92-81	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Norfolk St. (130.0)	MEAC	A	82-67	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Gardner Webb (269.3)	BSth	A	87-57	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Pittsburgh (68.6)	BE	A	69-55	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Oklahoma (93.0)	B12	A	83-48	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Hawaii (186.2)	WAC	A	100-73	L	0%	0.0
1-3	South Carolina (172.6)	SEC	A	79-51	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Morgan St. (276.6)	MEAC	H	68-73	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Coppin St. (215.7)	MEAC	H	61-82	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Bethune Cookman (264.7)	MEAC	A	82-76	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Florida A&M (324.7)	MEAC	A	86-69	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Savannah St. (210.3)	MEAC	A	83-53	L	0%	0.0
1-24	Hampton (310.6)	MEAC	A	78-66	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Howard (301.0)	MEAC	H	76-82	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Savannah St. (210.3)	MEAC	H	60-73	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Longwood (318.3)	ind	H	74-58	W	100%	0.0
2-11	North Carolina A&T (272.6)	MEAC	A	0-0		17%	-10.4
2-13	North Carolina Central (229.3)	MEAC	A	0-0		6%	-16.6
2-18	Bethune Cookman (264.7)	MEAC	H	0-0		29%	-6.0
2-20	Florida A&M (324.7)	MEAC	H	0-0		52%	0.4
2-25	North Carolina A&T (272.6)	MEAC	H	0-0		36%	-3.8
2-27	North Carolina Central (229.3)	MEAC	H	0-0		18%	-10.0
3-1	Delaware St. (273.1)	MEAC	A	0-0		12%	-12.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Carolina St.	MEAC	26.45	26.33	14.94	16.27	-18.55	-17.76
Savannah St.	MEAC	5.25	4.31	50.00	55.31	0.00	0.46
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.65	4.28	33.33	37.67	-0.88	-1.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.44	4.28	31.82	31.89	-0.16	-1.55
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.60	4.24	19.05	20.82	-1.61	-2.47
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.39	4.24	42.11	42.39	-0.06	-0.64
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.87	3.67	33.33	37.90	-1.62	-0.89
Longwood	ind	4.87	3.66	26.32	23.85	-2.31	-1.91
Hampton	MEAC	3.00	2.44	31.82	35.01	-1.09	-0.73
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.83	2.40	68.18	69.37	1.03	0.93
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.26	2.39	38.89	39.63	-0.06	-0.50
Howard	MEAC	2.76	2.37	18.18	22.88	-1.76	-1.28
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.86	2.35	38.89	47.77	-0.63	-0.10
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.81	2.34	20.00	31.21	-1.69	-0.88
Baylor	B12	2.49	1.91	90.48	83.35	2.01	1.27
Oklahoma	B12	2.50	1.88	54.55	52.35	0.23	0.09
Virginia	ACC	2.49	1.85	80.95	75.99	1.54	0.96
Hawaii	WAC	2.38	1.85	55.00	51.28	0.24	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	2.38	1.79	65.22	68.66	0.72	0.67
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.38	1.79	8.70	11.27	-1.97	-1.38
Pittsburgh	BE	2.38	1.79	60.87	58.17	0.52	0.29
South Carolina	SEC	2.38	1.79	38.10	37.52	-0.57	-0.45
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.32	0.71	19.05	19.39	-0.20	-0.43
North Florida	ASun	0.27	0.25	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.32	0.25	30.43	29.57	-0.12	-0.10
Indiana	B10	0.26	0.22	75.00	75.73	0.13	0.12
Chattanooga	SC	0.37	0.22	27.27	35.05	-0.17	-0.07
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.27	0.22	45.00	44.18	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.27	0.22	54.17	47.95	0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.20	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.22	0.19	39.13	42.16	-0.05	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.21	0.19	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.18	90.91	87.78	0.13	0.14
Clemson	ACC	0.27	0.18	47.83	45.51	-0.01	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.21	0.18	20.83	23.61	-0.12	-0.10
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.17	0.16	35.00	40.74	-0.05	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.16	22.22	32.99	-0.03	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.16	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.16	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.20	0.15	27.27	27.33	-0.09	-0.07
High Point	BSth	0.26	0.15	31.82	32.81	-0.09	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.21	0.15	17.39	20.75	-0.14	-0.09
Winthrop	BSth	0.26	0.15	34.78	34.75	-0.08	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.21	0.15	78.26	78.42	0.12	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.21	0.15	73.91	68.41	0.10	0.06
Missouri	B12	0.21	0.15	91.67	87.92	0.17	0.11
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.21	0.15	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.13	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.13	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.13	33.33	38.39	-0.04	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.13	82.61	84.58	0.03	0.09
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.13	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.17	0.13	80.95	76.42	0.11	0.07
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.13	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.21	0.13	47.83	47.36	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.17	0.13	69.57	65.88	0.07	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.13	81.82	77.18	0.07	0.07
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.13	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.21	0.12	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.12	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.21	0.12	68.42	68.62	0.08	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.12	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.12	68.18	67.72	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.12	8.70	13.12	-0.09	-0.09
Providence	BE	0.16	0.12	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.21	0.12	80.95	77.45	0.13	0.07
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.12	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.15	0.12	12.50	13.42	-0.11	-0.09
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.12	69.57	65.18	0.06	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.15	0.12	43.48	43.89	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.12	79.17	78.05	0.12	0.07
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.12	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.04
Texas	B12	0.05	0.12	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.16	0.12	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.12	30.43	25.84	-0.04	-0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.18	0.10	27.27	26.96	-0.08	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.10	69.57	64.49	0.02	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.10	81.82	81.50	0.04	0.06
Navy	Pat	0.17	0.10	9.52	13.17	-0.13	-0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.10	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.17	0.10	75.00	76.02	0.08	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.17	0.10	4.00	5.27	-0.15	-0.09
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.09	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.09	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.09	34.78	37.27	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.09	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.09	60.87	59.85	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.09	75.00	74.01	0.08	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.09	80.00	76.67	0.09	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.09	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.09	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.09	86.96	83.30	0.04	0.06
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.09	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.09	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.09	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	44.44	48.16	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.07	62.50	62.42	0.03	0.02
Army	Pat	0.11	0.07	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.07	27.27	23.78	-0.05	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.07	17.39	19.76	-0.07	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.07	14.29	17.12	-0.08	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.07	8.70	12.14	-0.09	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.07	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.07	33.33	41.30	-0.00	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.06	9.09	12.82	-0.00	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.00	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.06	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.06	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.06	34.78	33.38	-0.00	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.06	82.61	81.43	0.07	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.11	0.06	35.00	37.55	-0.03	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.06	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.69	0.03	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.03	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.08	-0.06	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.06	26.09	28.61	-0.05	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	40.00	39.70	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.06	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	76.00	72.48	0.05	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.10	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.06	39.13	36.12	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.10	0.06	80.00	78.08	0.06	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.06	68.00	70.06	0.04	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.04	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.04	78.26	74.29	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.04	62.50	60.78	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.03	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.03	40.91	44.29	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.00	0.03	71.43	73.99	0.00	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.06	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.03	31.82	33.75	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.03	0.00	5.31	-0.06	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.04	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.11	-0.02	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.64	-0.02	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.00	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.05	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00