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Through games of Feb 26, 2015.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:322.0
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:254
Current SOS:240
Current Record:5-21
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:5-9
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:308
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21308.813.13%
6-22320.346.41%
5-23328.340.45%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oregon (41.5)P12A107-65L0%0.0
11-16Illinois (64.9)B10A114-56L0%0.0
11-19Notre Dame (29.4)ACCA104-67L0%0.0
11-23Denver (231.0)SumA80-54L0%0.0
12-3Towson (270.5)CAAA84-76L0%0.0
12-6Hampton (289.9)MEACA71-52L0%0.0
12-8Norfolk St. (151.8)MEACA88-69L0%0.0
12-10Hofstra (167.2)CAAH64-105L0%0.0
12-14Connecticut (73.7)AmerA106-85L0%0.0
12-22Michigan (87.1)B10A72-56L0%0.0
12-23Eastern Michigan (164.0)MACA87-64L0%0.0
12-28Evansville (102.0)MVCA85-80L0%0.0
12-30Eastern Kentucky (155.2)OVCH63-66L0%0.0
1-3Akron (130.3)MACA79-62L0%0.0
1-10Howard (245.2)MEACA71-69L0%0.0
1-17Bethune Cookman (337.8)MEACH53-58L0%0.0
1-19Florida A&M (350.3)MEACH87-75W100%0.0
1-24North Carolina Central (112.7)MEACA79-77L0%0.0
1-26North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACA71-84W100%0.0
1-31Maryland Eastern Shore (194.1)MEACA92-82L0%0.0
2-2Morgan St. (331.9)MEACH80-67W100%0.0
2-7South Carolina St. (313.8)MEACH77-74W100%0.0
2-9Savannah St. (328.0)MEACH70-73L0%0.0
2-14Howard (245.2)MEACH60-77L0%0.0
2-16Delaware St. (228.4)MEACA92-96W100%0.0
2-21Norfolk St. (151.8)MEACH81-99L0%0.0
2-28Morgan St. (331.9)MEACA0-034%-4.3
3-5Delaware St. (228.4)MEACH0-039%-3.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC26.0826.1020.9122.16-15.18-14.53
Norfolk St.MEAC4.354.1956.0056.090.520.51
Morgan St.MEAC2.544.1625.9325.45-1.22-2.04
Delaware St.MEAC2.474.1244.0044.93-0.30-0.42
HowardMEAC4.324.1243.4844.65-0.56-0.44
HamptonMEAC2.472.5240.0039.53-0.49-0.53
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.522.4753.5754.630.180.23
South Carolina St.MEAC2.512.4430.7732.21-0.96-0.87
Savannah St.MEAC2.472.4120.8322.32-1.44-1.33
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.472.4028.0029.17-1.09-1.00
Florida A&MMEAC2.482.383.855.22-2.29-2.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.442.3820.0023.06-1.46-1.28
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.432.3773.9176.441.161.25
TowsonCAA2.061.9335.7136.85-0.59-0.51
IllinoisB102.071.9159.2659.950.380.38
OregonP122.031.9170.3768.220.830.69
HofstraCAA2.061.9162.0762.170.500.46
MichiganB102.071.9148.0048.21-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.001.8560.0060.910.400.40
Eastern MichiganMAC2.001.8552.1751.740.090.06
AkronMAC1.961.8257.6958.130.300.30
ConnecticutAmer1.921.7957.6956.880.300.25
DenverSum1.921.7940.7440.61-0.36-0.34
EvansvilleMVC1.921.7962.9662.260.500.44
Notre DameACC1.921.7982.1480.691.241.10
IUPUISum0.260.2234.4835.30-0.08-0.07
Miami FLACC0.260.2264.2963.100.070.06
NJITind0.140.2254.1754.130.010.02
Michigan St.B100.220.1867.8665.890.080.06
William & MaryCAA0.210.1861.5462.630.050.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1832.1432.12-0.05-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.170.1860.0059.190.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.200.1826.6726.81-0.09-0.08
ElonCAA0.160.1839.2939.48-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.150.1640.7440.56-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.150.1634.6233.72-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1640.0040.27-0.04-0.03
ToledoMAC0.150.1664.2963.780.040.04
UMBCAE0.180.1514.2914.93-0.13-0.11
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1593.1090.930.120.12
TempleAmer0.110.1568.9768.670.040.06
Penn St.B100.140.1553.5750.650.010.00
BelmontOVC0.140.1362.9664.060.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1310.7110.56-0.12-0.10
Ball St.MAC0.110.1324.0025.19-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1357.6956.870.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1355.5656.230.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1266.6764.480.040.04
FordhamA100.150.1232.0032.35-0.05-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1268.9768.490.040.05
USC UpstateASun0.150.1265.3865.140.050.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1266.6766.670.050.04
Ohio St.B100.150.1271.4371.530.060.05
VirginiaACC0.140.1296.3094.650.130.11
HoustonAmer0.110.1233.3335.14-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1250.0050.940.000.00
NorthwesternB100.070.1250.0048.140.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1216.6716.91-0.09-0.08
PurdueB100.100.1267.8664.720.040.03
DrexelCAA0.130.1237.0436.04-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.130.1263.3363.510.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1259.2659.110.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1235.7134.80-0.03-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1035.7134.86-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1078.2676.740.070.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0933.3332.84-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.110.0962.9663.060.030.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0961.5460.520.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0982.1481.480.050.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0972.0070.110.050.04
BuffaloMAC0.110.0966.6767.400.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0967.8667.390.040.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0960.7158.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.110.0936.0034.76-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.110.0924.1424.87-0.05-0.05
StetsonASun0.110.0923.0822.37-0.06-0.05
IndianaB100.110.0965.5264.530.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.0950.0049.870.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0925.0024.46-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.110.0974.0773.870.050.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0946.4346.69-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.110.0964.2964.530.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0922.2221.87-0.06-0.05
RutgersB100.070.0934.4833.30-0.02-0.03
SyracuseACC0.110.0964.2960.140.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0942.8641.84-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.110.0989.2987.910.080.07
Arizona St.P120.110.0953.5754.190.010.01
BryantNEC0.110.0950.0049.830.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0938.4638.60-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0974.0774.220.030.04
SMUAmer0.070.0981.4880.500.050.06
StanfordP120.070.0966.6764.450.020.03
WashingtonP120.100.0955.5654.230.010.01
DetroitHorz0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0921.4322.23-0.04-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.070.0960.0059.760.010.02
USCP120.100.0935.7135.30-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0955.5653.670.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0946.4345.05-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0992.8691.360.090.07
South FloridaAmer0.100.0925.9328.09-0.05-0.04
DukeACC0.100.0989.2988.120.080.07
NavyPat0.100.0935.7135.96-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0753.8553.040.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0751.8551.850.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8644.45-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0737.0436.30-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0617.8620.58-0.05-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0685.1984.500.050.04
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0628.0029.37-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0644.0044.59-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0655.5656.610.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0657.1458.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0625.9327.35-0.04-0.03
WinthropBSth0.080.0652.0053.540.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0677.7874.890.040.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0622.2222.17-0.04-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0633.3337.77-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0667.8667.610.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.070.0630.7730.30-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.040.0682.1478.240.020.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0644.4445.40-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0625.9326.74-0.02-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0665.3865.380.020.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0628.5728.58-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6765.750.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0651.8551.680.000.00
HawaiiBW0.040.0660.7160.790.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0660.7160.580.010.01
IonaMAAC0.040.0679.3179.020.020.04
IPFWSum0.070.0648.0049.56-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0655.5656.450.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0634.6235.46-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0659.2660.570.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0648.0045.31-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0651.8552.250.000.00
PennIvy0.040.0630.4330.03-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0645.8346.48-0.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0672.0070.730.020.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0644.8345.10-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0639.2940.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0646.4345.83-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0670.3770.390.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0631.0332.37-0.03-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0652.0053.140.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0655.5657.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0655.5656.260.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0689.2988.690.050.05
WyomingMWC0.070.0673.0870.020.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0678.5776.950.020.03
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0653.3354.170.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0646.1547.77-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0642.3142.56-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.070.0651.7252.130.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0634.6234.47-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.070.0655.1754.540.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0673.9170.390.030.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0657.1456.730.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0677.7878.470.040.03
WisconsinB100.070.0689.2987.430.060.04
LibertyBSth0.030.0615.3815.98-0.02-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0655.5654.350.000.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0640.7441.17-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0659.2658.430.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0666.6767.390.010.02
TulsaAmer0.070.0676.9273.060.040.03
UC RiversideBW0.030.0648.0046.54-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0658.6260.540.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0644.4441.78-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0652.1753.790.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0622.2224.13-0.04-0.03
La SalleA100.070.0653.5753.000.000.00
VCUA100.070.0675.0074.480.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0633.3334.43-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0660.7161.360.010.01
BYUWCC0.040.0371.4369.470.020.01
CreightonBE0.040.0346.4344.30-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0325.0026.59-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.03100.0099.450.040.03
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.4322.46-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.040.0350.0048.930.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0338.4639.97-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.040.0325.9326.41-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0381.4880.340.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0329.6330.57-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0355.5655.370.000.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0348.2846.44-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.040.0371.4369.990.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0325.0024.40-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0366.6766.660.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0316.0015.15-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0338.4639.23-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0342.8645.64-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.1481.330.020.02
FIUCUSA0.040.0342.3140.94-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0342.3141.77-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0374.0774.330.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0316.0017.21-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.040.0350.0050.620.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0362.9665.170.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.0030.33-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0319.0521.41-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0344.0045.59-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.040.0338.4638.56-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.4442.95-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0337.0436.55-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.040.0346.4346.30-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.040.0341.3839.54-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.040.0332.0032.30-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0333.3333.99-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0359.2657.470.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0331.0334.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0357.1454.110.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0344.4444.97-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0346.4346.88-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0369.2367.760.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0351.8551.810.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0367.8666.100.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0352.1751.310.000.00
TexasB120.040.0360.7160.420.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0352.0052.970.000.00
UtahP120.030.0380.7780.900.020.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0378.5775.030.020.01
YaleIvy0.040.0368.0068.020.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0314.2916.10-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0340.0039.77-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0315.3815.96-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.7250.710.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.001.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.030.0348.1547.52-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.29-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0342.8642.49-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0357.1456.560.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9326.68-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.2962.960.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.8667.070.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.8555.830.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0351.8551.130.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0364.2964.460.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0333.3332.95-0.01-0.01