live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:342.9
Current RPI:322
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:189
Current Record:0-8
Expected Record:5-24
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-14
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:117



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16264.70.03%
12-17277.20.05%
11-18297.60.29%
10-19310.00.99%
9-20321.33.25%
8-21331.27.35%
7-22338.113.71%
6-23342.920.08%
5-24346.320.06%
4-25348.417.65%
3-26349.510.69%
2-27350.24.59%
1-28350.61.13%
0-29350.90.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hofstra (237.3)CAAA74-72L0%0.0
11-14Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA78-58L0%0.0
11-16Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBA89-59L0%0.0
11-17BYU (66.1)WCCA96-59L0%0.0
11-18Utah (80.8)P12A94-51L0%0.0
11-21Ball St. (212.5)MACN77-79L0%0.0
11-25Grand Canyon (187.1)WACA70-37L0%0.0
11-30Georgetown (104.0)BEA96-44L0%0.0
12-4Clemson (68.2)ACCA0-00%-32.4
12-7Akron (74.5)MACA0-01%-28.1
12-10Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-03%-22.3
12-20Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBH0-021%-9.8
12-22Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECA0-06%-18.9
1-4South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-046%-1.1
1-7Florida A&M (346.2)MEACA0-034%-4.9
1-9Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACA0-030%-6.4
1-14North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH0-049%-0.5
1-16Howard (291.2)MEACA0-015%-12.6
1-23Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-033%-5.3
1-28Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-040%-3.0
1-30Hampton (332.8)MEACA0-021%-9.6
2-4Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACA0-016%-11.8
2-6North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACH0-09%-16.0
2-11Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACH0-049%-0.3
2-13Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-036%-4.2
2-18South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACA0-027%-7.3
2-20Savannah St. (339.8)MEACA0-031%-6.0
2-27Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA0-022%-9.2
3-2Hampton (332.8)MEACH0-039%-3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC29.0026.130.0020.02-29.00-15.67
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.040.0024.93-0.00-2.02
HamptonMEAC0.004.010.0031.31-0.00-1.50
Morgan St.MEAC0.003.9816.6734.65-0.00-1.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.003.9816.6729.70-0.00-1.62
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.410.0037.29-0.00-0.61
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.410.0022.47-0.00-1.33
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.370.0021.83-0.00-1.34
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3516.6735.37-0.00-0.69
HowardMEAC0.392.340.0036.58-0.39-0.63
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.340.0032.39-0.00-0.83
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.3466.6774.770.001.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.310.0023.34-0.00-1.23
Ball St.MAC6.701.8440.0050.69-1.340.03
BuffaloMAC0.001.8440.0049.27-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB6.701.8116.6737.28-4.46-0.46
AkronMAC0.001.8183.3368.800.000.68
ClemsonACC0.001.7966.6751.870.000.07
BYUWCC7.141.7866.6767.622.380.63
ValparaisoHorz7.221.7883.3373.554.810.84
GeorgetownBE6.251.7542.8645.81-0.89-0.15
Louisiana MonroeSB0.001.7520.0030.94-0.00-0.67
Grand CanyonWAC6.251.7240.0054.69-1.250.16
HofstraCAA6.251.7250.0038.500.00-0.40
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.001.7212.5047.47-0.00-0.09
UtahP126.251.7266.6759.482.080.33
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2733.3343.64-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.2150.0045.410.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1957.1459.480.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1675.0047.510.00-0.01
OregonP120.840.1571.4366.730.360.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1540.0055.44-0.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1520.0036.00-0.00-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1525.0039.28-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1550.0051.820.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1550.0033.010.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1580.0068.320.000.05
XavierBE0.000.15100.0074.800.000.07
St. John'sBE0.000.1528.5733.92-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.390.1585.7168.390.280.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1557.1464.940.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1566.6756.360.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1550.0055.850.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1516.6736.45-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.1271.4359.850.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1228.5730.29-0.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1271.4368.100.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.450.1260.0058.950.090.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1266.6770.140.000.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1250.0052.140.000.01
ButlerBE0.780.12100.0075.690.780.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.12100.0089.040.000.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1216.6730.27-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0054.490.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.1260.0067.410.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.1260.0057.900.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1266.6761.340.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.1250.0043.310.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1228.5727.50-0.00-0.05
WagnerNEC0.000.1233.3353.85-0.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1233.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC1.410.1266.6756.020.470.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.1242.8638.05-0.06-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0076.650.000.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1028.5723.76-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0971.4386.030.000.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0920.0048.38-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0950.0047.990.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0957.1455.810.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6732.240.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.26-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0971.4365.740.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0080.780.000.06
Stony BrookAE0.000.0916.6733.82-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0983.3374.620.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.450.0925.0063.95-0.220.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.520.0962.5043.960.13-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0933.3338.19-0.15-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0916.6735.65-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0920.0042.63-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0983.3350.740.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.920.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0017.30-0.00-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0983.3357.990.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0916.6729.36-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0950.0059.670.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.450.0962.5056.500.110.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0940.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0050.290.000.00
Southern UtahBSky1.410.090.0023.26-1.41-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.450.0971.4352.370.190.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.970.0933.3326.75-0.32-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.0928.5750.20-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.0971.4363.090.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0049.010.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0983.3358.030.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0837.5036.24-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0783.3363.610.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0775.0059.100.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0757.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0750.0036.820.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.03
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.780.0650.0062.460.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.780.060.0033.43-0.78-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0683.3344.770.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
WisconsinB100.390.0675.0073.840.200.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.450.0666.6769.810.150.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0642.8642.47-0.06-0.01
DukeACC0.520.0687.5078.680.390.03
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
MarylandB100.390.0685.7156.490.280.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.450.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.520.0633.3346.81-0.17-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.520.0350.0060.380.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.520.0342.8635.68-0.07-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.520.0357.1440.590.07-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0314.2934.56-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6754.380.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0375.0064.960.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.450.0371.4370.330.190.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.450.0357.1447.220.06-0.00
VermontAE0.450.0362.5071.630.110.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.390.0383.3356.560.260.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.390.0333.3338.20-0.13-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.450.0350.0053.560.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02