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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:261.0
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:231
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20261.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8California (63.0)P12A83-64L0%0.0
11-10Oregon St. (100.0)P12A73-78W100%0.0
11-18Wagner (218.0)NECH87-102L0%0.0
11-29Michigan (11.0)B10A87-45L0%0.0
12-1Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA86-51L0%0.0
12-7Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA54-73W100%0.0
12-11UMBC (327.0)AEH91-71W100%0.0
12-14Richmond (75.0)A10A71-49L0%0.0
12-20Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAN88-74L0%0.0
12-21Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCN61-72L0%0.0
12-28Toledo (38.0)MACA85-66L0%0.0
12-31Akron (93.0)MACA77-66L0%0.0
1-4Towson (95.0)CAAH79-81L0%0.0
1-11Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH53-75L0%0.0
1-13South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH75-69W100%0.0
1-18Hampton (204.0)MEACA68-71W100%0.0
1-20Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA83-71L0%0.0
1-25North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA87-63L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA54-70W100%0.0
2-1Hampton (204.0)MEACH76-79L0%0.0
2-3Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH54-53W100%0.0
2-8Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA50-58W100%0.0
2-10Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH77-82L0%0.0
2-15Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA82-71L0%0.0
2-19Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA78-69L0%0.0
2-22Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH68-73L0%0.0
3-1Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH67-68L0%0.0
3-3Howard (323.0)MEACH86-69W100%0.0
3-11Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACN75-68W100%0.0
3-12Hampton (204.0)MEACN77-83W100%0.0
3-14Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN79-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC26.3126.3137.7537.75-6.45-6.45
Morgan St.MEAC5.555.5542.8642.86-0.79-0.79
HamptonMEAC5.495.4962.9662.961.421.42
Norfolk St.MEAC4.014.0150.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.983.9815.3815.38-2.76-2.76
Delaware St.MEAC3.873.8726.9226.92-1.79-1.79
HowardMEAC2.452.4520.0020.00-1.47-1.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.402.4083.3383.331.601.60
Florida A&MMEAC2.342.3437.9337.93-0.56-0.56
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.262.2617.2417.24-1.48-1.48
South Carolina St.MEAC2.262.2625.9325.93-1.09-1.09
Savannah St.MEAC2.242.2434.4834.48-0.70-0.70
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.212.2126.6726.67-1.03-1.03
Oregon St.P121.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
TowsonCAA1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
UMBCAE1.701.7028.5728.57-0.73-0.73
AkronMAC1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
ToledoMAC1.661.6680.6580.651.021.02
MichiganB101.641.6475.0075.000.820.82
CaliforniaP121.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
GonzagaWCC1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
Jacksonville St.OVC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
RichmondA101.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
WagnerNEC1.611.6158.6258.620.280.28
OhioMAC0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
William & MaryCAA0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
NJITind0.190.1936.0036.00-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
DaytonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
NavyPat0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
MarylandACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
La SalleA100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Washington St.P120.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
AmericanPat0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
George WashingtonA100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
IowaB100.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00