Coppin St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	214.5
Current RPI:	203
Expected SOS:	303
Current SOS:	239
Current Record:	8-11
Expected Record:	12-13
Current Conf Record:	7-3
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	16.26%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	302
Expected OOC SOS:	125

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-11	184.6	15.45%
13-12	204.5	36.16%
12-13	223.5	31.38%
11-14	242.9	13.93%
10-15	261.6	2.76%
9-16	276.8	0.30%
8-17	297.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	78-68	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	A	92-65	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Connecticut (27.1)	BE	A	87-70	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Purdue (65.0)	B10	A	78-57	L	0%	0.0
12-11	Illinois (39.4)	B10	A	80-63	L	0%	0.0
12-14	Towson (304.8)	CAA	H	71-57	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	A	74-63	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	A	81-72	L	0%	0.0
12-29	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	N	81-66	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	A	77-83	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	A	72-60	L	0%	0.0
1-9	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	A	61-82	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	H	83-66	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	H	66-74	L	0%	0.0
1-21	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	77-57	W	100%	0.0
1-23	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	H	92-93	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	A	70-73	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	A	82-87	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	A	86-88	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Delaware St. (279.9)	MEAC	H	0-0		74%	7.0
2-13	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	H	0-0		91%	14.6
2-18	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	0-0		88%	12.7
2-22	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		65%	4.3
2-27	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	0-0		76%	7.9
3-1	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	A	0-0		51%	0.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Coppin St.	MEAC	26.39	26.22	50.57	55.09	0.30	2.67
Morgan St.	MEAC	3.43	4.74	26.32	39.14	-1.62	-1.03
Hampton	MEAC	5.76	4.72	40.00	41.23	-1.15	-0.83
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.32	4.71	20.00	20.25	-0.19	-2.80
Norfolk St.	MEAC	5.70	4.71	70.00	71.13	2.28	1.99
Howard	MEAC	3.25	4.67	19.05	23.46	-2.01	-2.48
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.32	2.84	35.29	40.40	-0.09	-0.55
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.13	2.64	50.00	56.36	0.00	0.34
South Carolina St.	MEAC	3.18	2.64	10.53	15.48	-2.51	-1.82
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.88	2.63	41.18	45.68	-0.51	-0.23
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.83	2.61	30.00	34.93	-1.13	-0.79
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.33	2.61	38.10	42.55	-0.08	-0.39
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.76	2.11	60.87	61.24	0.60	0.47
Charlotte	A10	2.76	2.07	47.62	47.64	-0.13	-0.10
Illinois	B10	2.69	2.06	71.43	63.24	1.15	0.55
Purdue	B10	2.69	2.06	63.64	59.27	0.73	0.38
Oklahoma	B12	2.70	2.04	57.14	53.14	0.39	0.13
Connecticut	BE	2.63	2.00	66.67	62.75	0.88	0.51
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.63	2.00	76.19	72.50	1.38	0.90
San Jose St.	WAC	2.63	2.00	23.81	24.34	-1.38	-1.03
Towson	CAA	2.63	2.00	4.17	5.43	-2.41	-1.78
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.34	0.75	19.05	22.37	-0.21	-0.41
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.25	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.09
American	Pat	0.23	0.24	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.18	0.24	75.00	75.78	0.09	0.12
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.24	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.29	0.23	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.18	0.21	72.73	68.28	0.08	0.08
Longwood	ind	0.19	0.21	30.00	27.84	-0.07	-0.09
Xavier	A10	0.24	0.20	65.22	63.74	0.07	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.24	0.17	79.17	75.98	0.14	0.09
Kansas	B12	0.23	0.17	78.26	78.39	0.13	0.10
William & Mary	CAA	0.23	0.17	12.50	13.44	-0.17	-0.12
Drexel	CAA	0.28	0.17	79.17	78.10	0.16	0.09
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.16	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.19	0.15	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.19	0.14	34.78	38.77	-0.06	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.14	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.25	0.14	57.14	53.12	0.04	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.14	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.14	9.52	13.19	-0.10	-0.10
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.14	37.50	38.52	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.18	0.14	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.14	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.18	0.14	80.95	77.38	0.11	0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.18	0.14	13.64	16.35	-0.13	-0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.14	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.14	90.91	83.85	0.10	0.09
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.14	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.18	0.14	62.50	62.06	0.04	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.24	0.14	69.57	65.15	0.09	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.17	0.13	79.17	80.10	0.10	0.08
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.13	60.00	59.06	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.23	0.13	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.13	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.17	0.13	73.91	68.58	0.08	0.05
Temple	A10	0.17	0.13	77.27	75.06	0.09	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.18	0.13	75.00	73.97	0.09	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.13	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.13	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.13	0.11	82.61	84.57	0.09	0.08
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.11	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.11	81.82	77.20	0.08	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.11	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.11	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.11	65.22	62.65	0.04	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.13	0.10	82.61	81.44	0.08	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.10	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.10	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.12	0.10	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.10	68.00	69.07	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.10	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.06
Rutgers	BE	0.18	0.10	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.10	70.83	68.82	0.07	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.18	0.10	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.10	91.30	87.18	0.10	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.10	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.18	0.10	26.32	29.71	-0.08	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.10	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.10	69.57	61.31	0.07	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.10	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.10	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.07
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.08	70.83	64.42	0.03	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.07	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.07	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.07	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.00	0.07	73.91	74.91	0.00	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	100.00	94.55	0.07	0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.00	0.07	42.86	45.80	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.00	0.07	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.00	0.07	61.90	58.59	0.00	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.00	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.00	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.07	8.70	11.67	-0.10	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.07	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.12	0.07	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.07	17.39	19.81	-0.08	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.07	25.00	28.52	-0.00	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.07	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.12	0.07	70.83	71.05	0.05	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.07	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.07	26.09	28.60	-0.06	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.07	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.07	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.07	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.07	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.07	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.07	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.07	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.07	38.10	40.81	-0.03	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.07	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.07	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.11	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.09	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.07	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.07	28.57	26.30	-0.05	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.07	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.12	0.07	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.07	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.07	65.00	60.02	0.04	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.07	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.00	0.07	20.83	20.60	-0.00	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.07	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.07	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.07	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.07	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.12	0.07	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.07	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.06
Texas	B12	0.00	0.07	60.87	61.37	0.00	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.07	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.07	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.07	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.09	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.07	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.04	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.04	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.04	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.04	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.04	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.04	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.04	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.04	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.00	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.06	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.05	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.00	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.06	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.04	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.04	0.02
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.02	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.04	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00