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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:327.8
Current RPI:316
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:209
Current Record:3-18
Expected Record:5-21
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-10
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-18293.10.88%
7-19309.111.22%
6-20322.432.04%
5-21332.635.46%
4-22339.417.57%
3-23343.62.82%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCA107-80L0%0.0
11-15Iowa (8.5)B10A103-68L0%0.0
11-28Towson (166.3)CAAH77-81L0%0.0
12-2Akron (32.3)MACA77-71L0%0.0
12-5Hampton (194.9)MEACH71-74L0%0.0
12-7Norfolk St. (206.4)MEACH56-88L0%0.0
12-9Kansas St. (70.4)B12A83-58L0%0.0
12-13Fordham (194.4)A10A92-55L0%0.0
12-18San Francisco (230.8)WCCA96-93L0%0.0
12-19California (35.8)P12A84-51L0%0.0
12-21Eastern Michigan (148.2)MACH62-73L0%0.0
12-28Creighton (78.4)BEA102-77L0%0.0
12-30Iowa St. (21.1)B12A104-84L0%0.0
1-9Howard (295.1)MEACA72-63L0%0.0
1-16Bethune Cookman (300.8)MEACA54-62W100%0.0
1-18Florida A&M (347.6)MEACA66-70W100%0.0
1-27North Carolina A&T (335.6)MEACH73-68W100%0.0
1-30Maryland Eastern Shore (274.6)MEACH81-83L0%0.0
2-1Morgan St. (331.9)MEACA83-43L0%0.0
2-6South Carolina St. (208.4)MEACA88-83L0%0.0
2-8Savannah St. (327.9)MEACA72-63L0%0.0
2-13Howard (295.1)MEACH0-046%-1.0
2-15Delaware St. (349.0)MEACH0-077%7.9
2-22Norfolk St. (206.4)MEACA0-010%-13.7
2-27Morgan St. (331.9)MEACH0-048%-0.4
3-3Delaware St. (349.0)MEACA0-055%1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC26.1026.1418.6823.47-16.35-13.87
Norfolk St.MEAC2.814.4740.9147.40-0.51-0.23
Morgan St.MEAC2.814.4615.0022.05-1.97-2.49
Delaware St.MEAC0.494.439.0910.61-0.40-3.49
HowardMEAC2.704.3933.3336.04-0.90-1.23
HamptonMEAC2.862.6757.1459.800.410.52
South Carolina St.MEAC2.902.6750.0052.440.000.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.862.6326.0931.39-1.37-0.98
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.872.5433.3337.42-0.96-0.64
Savannah St.MEAC2.852.5435.0035.19-0.86-0.75
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.762.5130.4334.22-1.08-0.79
Florida A&MMEAC2.712.4026.3226.13-1.28-1.14
Kansas St.B122.532.0556.5254.840.330.20
AkronMAC2.552.0381.8280.481.621.24
Iowa St.B122.482.0269.5766.890.970.68
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.491.9948.0047.57-0.10-0.10
TowsonCAA2.441.9960.8756.210.530.25
San FranciscoWCC2.381.9950.0047.270.00-0.11
Eastern MichiganMAC2.431.9636.8441.03-0.64-0.35
IowaB102.431.9578.2678.161.371.10
CaliforniaP122.381.9265.2263.600.720.52
CreightonBE2.381.9262.5060.810.600.42
FordhamA102.381.9250.0048.860.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.430.6525.0033.24-0.21-0.22
Old DominionCUSA0.160.2358.3363.160.030.06
Central MichiganMAC0.280.2047.6249.39-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.270.2054.1754.420.020.02
TCUB120.050.1945.8339.36-0.00-0.04
West VirginiaB120.250.1979.1778.100.150.11
William & MaryCAA0.160.1768.1867.120.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.210.1760.8757.170.050.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.1745.8341.64-0.01-0.03
ToledoMAC0.160.1760.8762.070.030.04
MassachusettsA100.160.1743.4842.42-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.110.1765.2260.710.030.04
OhioMAC0.100.1765.2263.630.030.05
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1772.0071.570.070.07
UtahP120.160.1770.8368.530.060.06
PurdueB100.200.1680.0077.900.120.09
BaylorB120.210.1673.9168.450.100.06
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1645.8342.30-0.01-0.02
OklahomaB120.250.1686.9682.620.180.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1460.0057.680.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1483.3382.090.070.09
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1445.4543.17-0.01-0.02
UMBCAE0.150.1323.0825.89-0.08-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.160.1334.7832.89-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.210.1380.0081.550.120.08
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1368.1865.570.060.04
RichmondA100.160.1356.5255.820.020.02
DelawareCAA0.100.1325.0024.91-0.05-0.07
RutgersB100.150.1321.7420.33-0.09-0.08
MichiganB100.050.1370.8366.750.020.04
NebraskaB100.100.1352.0050.770.000.00
ColoradoP120.200.1370.8365.570.080.04
DePaulBE0.150.1333.3334.02-0.05-0.04
KansasB120.100.1282.6179.210.060.07
TexasB120.100.1266.6762.200.030.03
Texas TechB120.150.1260.8755.310.030.01
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1147.8348.57-0.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.110.1131.8232.07-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.1054.1754.210.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1031.8232.68-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1031.8230.08-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.109.5212.09-0.09-0.08
PrincetonIvy0.110.1073.6875.880.050.05
La SalleA100.110.1019.0520.30-0.07-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1083.3381.270.110.06
MissouriSEC0.160.1033.3330.27-0.05-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1060.8758.910.030.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.1063.6461.560.010.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1050.0045.860.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.110.1050.0046.760.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1081.8281.780.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1045.4554.18-0.010.01
VirginiaACC0.110.1083.3378.460.070.06
OregonP120.160.1079.1777.220.090.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.1031.8235.12-0.04-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1077.2773.930.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1045.4551.69-0.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1041.6739.50-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.1025.0023.43-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1065.2264.330.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.1056.0052.860.020.01
IndianaB100.100.1080.0075.690.060.05
MarquetteBE0.050.0964.0057.890.010.01
VillanovaBE0.150.0987.5086.850.110.07
Arizona St.P120.100.0956.0053.630.010.01
North FloridaASun0.120.0762.5064.110.030.02
AmericanPat0.100.0729.1731.18-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.100.0768.0070.260.040.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0766.6767.660.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0723.8129.52-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0740.0039.00-0.01-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0760.8756.270.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0779.1777.510.060.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0738.1039.12-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0785.0083.450.040.05
High PointBSth0.060.0757.1459.870.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0741.6741.18-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0723.8125.99-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0758.3360.910.010.01
PortlandWCC0.100.0738.4638.04-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0752.1754.090.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0756.0055.750.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0738.4641.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0730.4328.20-0.02-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0733.3332.04-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.0772.7370.390.050.03
WagnerNEC0.060.0760.8762.520.010.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.0752.1753.740.000.01
George MasonA100.110.0733.3333.62-0.04-0.02
DaytonA100.110.0787.5083.730.080.04
LongwoodBSth0.100.0721.7424.59-0.06-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0760.0055.570.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0760.8755.980.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0713.0416.41-0.07-0.04
ElonCAA0.050.0750.0050.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0772.0073.080.020.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0766.6766.780.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0750.0049.490.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0772.0071.330.020.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0730.0029.17-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.0748.0048.59-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0736.8437.30-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0786.9680.430.040.04
StetsonASun0.050.0722.7327.37-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0765.2262.360.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0769.5770.020.020.03
DavidsonA100.050.0761.9058.180.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0727.2728.15-0.05-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0734.7832.39-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.100.0787.5083.680.070.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0750.0050.500.000.00
MississippiSEC0.100.0662.5058.940.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0645.0049.16-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0668.0066.640.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0624.0024.16-0.02-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.150.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0652.1753.440.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0668.1865.190.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.06-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0660.8759.830.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.910.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0631.5832.03-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0680.0078.730.030.04
ButlerBE0.050.0670.8368.990.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.770.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.130.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.0670.8368.090.040.02
StanfordP120.100.0647.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0675.0075.350.050.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.840.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0435.0034.87-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0440.0040.34-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0439.1342.98-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0470.8367.980.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0425.0026.38-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0440.0041.68-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0414.2924.87-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0473.0872.610.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0440.9138.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0442.8641.32-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0450.0054.220.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0420.0019.72-0.03-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0425.0028.14-0.03-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0445.4543.88-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0445.4549.06-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0479.1776.000.030.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0458.3358.580.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0418.1821.06-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0465.3865.500.020.01
SMUAmer0.050.0486.9682.930.040.02
VermontAE0.060.0452.0054.840.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0466.6763.790.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0329.1726.68-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0312.5013.26-0.04-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0354.5555.550.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0375.0071.980.030.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0350.0051.280.000.00
MaineAE0.060.0332.0031.17-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.700.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0368.1871.340.020.01
VCUA100.060.0370.8371.030.020.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.0011.95-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0330.0030.54-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.100.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0333.3336.30-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0352.1751.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0330.4329.49-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.81-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.78-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.06-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0343.4845.20-0.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.690.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.620.020.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.25-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0323.0823.85-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.910.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.0415.26-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0314.2914.92-0.03-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.700.020.02
WisconsinB100.000.0362.5056.990.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.68-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0383.3383.710.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.71-0.05-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0354.5552.530.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0355.5652.480.010.00
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.4543.98-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0344.0043.56-0.01-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0354.1752.980.000.00
USCP120.000.0375.0071.140.000.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.0412.96-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0334.7831.64-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00