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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:249.1
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:23
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-974.00.01%
18-1082.00.01%
17-1190.00.02%
16-12118.60.19%
15-13132.60.62%
14-14155.32.12%
13-15174.14.39%
12-16196.79.37%
11-17217.814.11%
10-18239.517.62%
9-19260.518.57%
8-20280.514.68%
7-21298.610.25%
6-22312.15.17%
5-23325.52.02%
4-24334.10.68%
3-25340.20.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oregon (39.4)P12A107-65L0%0.0
11-16Illinois (42.0)B10A114-56L0%0.0
11-19Notre Dame (36.7)ACCA104-67L0%0.0
11-23Denver (124.2)SumA0-012%-14.2
12-3Towson (170.2)CAAA0-019%-10.4
12-6Hampton (241.8)MEACA0-028%-6.8
12-8Norfolk St. (240.6)MEACA0-030%-6.1
12-10Hofstra (137.4)CAAH0-031%-6.0
12-14Connecticut (14.8)AmerA0-02%-25.3
12-22Michigan (46.1)B10A0-03%-23.1
12-23Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACA0-021%-9.5
12-28Evansville (102.1)MVCA0-010%-15.6
12-30Eastern Kentucky (128.3)OVCH0-029%-6.5
1-3Akron (100.7)MACA0-010%-15.1
1-10Howard (305.9)MEACA0-043%-2.2
1-17Bethune Cookman (325.7)MEACH0-071%6.5
1-19Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH0-086%12.9
1-24North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACA0-012%-13.9
1-26North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACA0-056%1.8
1-31Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACA0-056%1.8
2-2Morgan St. (264.9)MEACH0-055%1.5
2-7South Carolina St. (291.4)MEACH0-067%5.4
2-9Savannah St. (241.4)MEACH0-060%3.2
2-14Howard (305.9)MEACH0-066%5.0
2-16Delaware St. (249.4)MEACA0-033%-5.3
2-21Norfolk St. (240.6)MEACH0-053%1.1
2-28Morgan St. (264.9)MEACA0-032%-5.7
3-5Delaware St. (249.4)MEACH0-056%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC32.6426.130.0037.17-32.64-6.71
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.2033.3344.91-0.00-0.43
Morgan St.MEAC0.004.170.0039.20-0.00-0.90
Delaware St.MEAC0.004.1433.3343.76-0.00-0.52
HowardMEAC0.004.140.0034.74-0.00-1.26
HamptonMEAC0.002.5425.0050.84-0.000.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4820.0027.23-0.00-1.13
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.450.0032.70-0.00-0.85
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.4250.0041.800.00-0.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.420.0037.41-0.00-0.61
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.390.0018.42-0.00-1.51
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.390.0023.43-0.00-1.27
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.380.0071.36-0.001.02
TowsonCAA0.001.9475.0052.930.000.11
IllinoisB1016.671.91100.0065.9716.670.61
MichiganB100.001.91100.0063.150.000.50
HofstraCAA0.001.9166.6762.600.000.48
OregonP1216.671.91100.0070.4216.670.78
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.85100.0063.830.000.51
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.85100.0048.120.00-0.07
AkronMAC0.001.8266.6762.810.000.47
ConnecticutAmer0.001.79100.0075.410.000.91
DenverSum0.001.7950.0060.490.000.37
EvansvilleMVC0.001.79100.0062.530.000.45
Notre DameACC16.671.79100.0073.7816.670.85
IUPUISum0.000.2350.0031.810.00-0.08
Miami FLACC0.000.22100.0073.530.000.10
NJITind0.000.2225.0025.21-0.00-0.11
Michigan St.B100.000.1966.6771.600.000.08
James MadisonCAA0.000.1866.6746.540.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1866.6744.970.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1825.0056.39-0.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.180.0029.55-0.00-0.07
ElonCAA0.000.1833.3341.21-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1666.6734.100.00-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1650.0056.270.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.16100.0072.420.000.07
ToledoMAC2.780.1633.3364.19-0.930.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.16100.0045.990.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.150.0036.19-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.1575.0047.170.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.1550.0053.100.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1366.6773.760.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.130.0036.36-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.130.0028.50-0.00-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0054.710.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.13100.0070.980.000.05
FordhamA100.000.130.0035.11-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.13100.0071.340.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.130.0056.24-0.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.13100.0051.050.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0075.720.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.12100.0065.060.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.12100.0042.120.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0044.810.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3336.55-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.12100.0060.550.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.120.0035.36-0.00-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.1266.6733.180.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.120.0032.23-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0071.440.000.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6748.790.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1050.0051.860.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.100.0027.82-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.100.0031.61-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.10100.0064.500.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0063.820.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0046.020.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1066.6752.030.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.09100.0061.500.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6760.610.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0933.3354.70-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0950.0033.700.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0052.610.000.00
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0950.0037.560.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0069.320.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0068.880.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.040.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0057.540.000.01
DetroitHorz2.780.0933.3354.50-0.930.01
IowaB100.000.0950.0065.570.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0056.330.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0950.0054.900.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0950.0044.170.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0033.55-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.830.000.04
StanfordP120.000.0975.0071.090.000.04
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.07-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0063.070.000.02
USCP120.000.0950.0027.780.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0933.3332.78-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0975.0068.160.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6752.320.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0046.040.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0950.0051.120.000.00
DukeACC0.000.09100.0086.130.000.06
NavyPat2.080.090.0032.62-2.08-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0033.25-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0038.59-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0725.0059.16-0.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0071.840.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0725.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0073.290.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.640.000.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3359.57-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.56-0.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0640.0040.58-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6758.190.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
Austin PeayOVC2.780.060.0031.23-2.78-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB2.780.060.0046.56-2.78-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0080.090.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.19-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3357.45-0.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0045.790.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0056.240.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.290.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0042.57-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0050.76-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0046.730.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0062.510.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.850.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.620.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.630.000.03
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.620.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6758.230.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.74-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0038.370.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0053.840.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.480.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0053.080.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.850.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0018.48-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.98-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0032.48-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0032.70-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0035.71-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0060.550.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0065.140.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6760.720.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.160.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.34-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0033.75-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0053.10-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0050.420.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.330.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.08-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0055.87-0.000.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6769.700.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0325.0037.31-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.89-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6749.590.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
BinghamtonAE2.080.030.0034.71-2.08-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0025.43-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.84-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA102.080.0375.0060.411.040.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.670.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3364.76-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0045.12-0.00-0.00