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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


St. Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:32.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:94
Current SOS:86
Current Record:17-5
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:39.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:187



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-521.817.07%
23-627.736.43%
22-735.232.20%
21-845.211.78%
20-957.12.24%
19-1070.50.26%
18-1186.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Tennessee St. (155.4)OVCH71-37W100%0.0
11-15Southern Illinois (227.1)MVCA42-61W100%0.0
11-20Washington (69.1)P12H77-64W100%0.0
11-24Boston College (248.2)ACCN62-51W100%0.0
11-25Villanova (98.5)BEN80-68W100%0.0
11-27Oklahoma (89.8)B12N83-63W100%0.0
11-29Loyola Marymount (107.0)WCCA75-68L0%0.0
12-3Portland (215.5)WCCH73-53W100%0.0
12-7Vermont (173.1)AEH62-43W100%0.0
12-17Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH65-35W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas St. (228.9)SBH70-46W100%0.0
12-27Texas Southern (244.5)SWACH71-39W100%0.0
12-31New Mexico (30.8)MWCA64-60L0%0.0
1-4Dayton (77.1)A10A79-72L0%0.0
1-7George Washington (196.4)A10H78-56W100%0.0
1-11Temple (24.4)A10H67-72L0%0.0
1-14Charlotte (140.3)A10A67-68W100%0.0
1-21Duquesne (79.5)A10H68-41W100%0.0
1-25Xavier (55.8)A10A68-73W100%0.0
1-28Massachusetts (76.4)A10A72-59L0%0.0
2-1St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H86-62W100%0.0
2-4Dayton (77.1)A10H58-50W100%0.0
2-8Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10A0-060%2.9
2-11La Salle (69.1)A10A0-058%2.3
2-15Richmond (135.3)A10H0-090%13.9
2-18Fordham (243.2)A10H0-099%25.7
2-25Rhode Island (250.6)A10A0-093%16.1
2-28Xavier (55.8)A10H0-081%9.6
3-3Duquesne (79.5)A10A0-071%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. LouisA1026.2126.0278.4179.7314.8915.47
DaytonA104.753.9761.9061.741.130.93
XavierA102.633.9768.1867.610.961.40
DuquesneA102.533.9461.9059.440.600.74
St. BonaventureA102.572.3063.1661.250.680.52
Rhode IslandA100.412.2820.8321.05-0.24-1.32
La SalleA100.452.2770.8369.720.190.90
Saint Joseph'sA100.402.2762.5063.250.100.60
TempleA102.472.2776.1974.201.301.10
CharlotteA102.472.2752.3851.210.120.06
MassachusettsA102.472.2772.7367.501.120.79
RichmondA100.312.2450.0049.760.00-0.01
FordhamA100.312.2440.9135.70-0.06-0.64
George WashingtonA102.482.2436.3633.19-0.68-0.75
PortlandWCC2.371.8122.7322.51-1.29-1.00
Boston CollegeACC2.371.8131.8227.35-0.86-0.82
VillanovaBE2.321.8147.6247.67-0.11-0.08
Loyola MarymountWCC2.321.7957.1456.200.330.22
Texas SouthernSWAC2.331.7933.3343.58-0.78-0.23
Alabama St.SWAC2.321.7831.5838.68-0.86-0.40
Southern IllinoisMVC2.321.7836.3633.21-0.63-0.60
Arkansas St.SB2.331.7539.1339.65-0.51-0.36
WashingtonP122.321.7572.7368.831.060.66
New MexicoMWC2.321.7580.9580.351.441.06
OklahomaB122.271.7261.9056.580.540.23
Tennessee St.OVC2.271.7259.0955.070.410.17
VermontAE2.271.7262.5064.570.570.50
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.2128.5726.30-0.13-0.10
Boston UniversityAE0.190.2048.0051.88-0.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.200.1881.8281.490.130.11
CincinnatiBE0.210.1769.5765.470.080.05
HarvardIvy0.200.1790.4887.910.160.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1517.6527.10-0.10-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.1550.0058.160.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.150.15100.0094.550.150.13
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1525.0037.58-0.08-0.04
Washington St.P120.200.1550.0048.170.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.150.1530.0034.15-0.06-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.150.1447.8343.66-0.01-0.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.150.1275.0076.000.080.06
PepperdineWCC0.150.1231.8233.83-0.06-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.1233.3333.82-0.03-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.200.1256.5253.770.030.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.100.1290.9187.740.080.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1260.8759.760.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.210.1233.3333.88-0.07-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1216.6723.02-0.07-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1217.3924.41-0.07-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1233.3335.97-0.07-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.110.1215.0015.73-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1219.0525.52-0.07-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1235.0040.78-0.05-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.1245.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.150.1225.0028.52-0.08-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1254.1757.200.010.02
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1240.9142.96-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.100.1234.7834.48-0.03-0.04
SienaMAAC0.150.1245.4545.55-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.210.1268.4266.450.080.04
Florida InternationalSB0.160.1233.3337.16-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.100.1266.6768.550.030.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1247.6248.82-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1254.1754.750.010.01
UCLAP120.100.1254.5556.790.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.110.1256.5255.200.010.01
Penn St.B100.100.1241.6738.67-0.02-0.03
PittsburghBE0.050.1260.8758.160.010.02
Kansas St.B120.200.1272.7368.280.090.04
Miami FLACC0.150.1265.0060.020.050.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.1239.1342.12-0.01-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1147.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.150.1165.2263.740.050.03
TexasB120.050.1160.8761.370.010.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1154.5556.840.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0934.7838.42-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.0983.3384.760.100.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.094.359.66-0.13-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.100.0942.8641.13-0.01-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.160.0945.4544.02-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0965.2263.610.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0928.5734.20-0.07-0.03
ClemsonACC0.160.0950.0048.360.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.150.0936.3639.72-0.04-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.0972.7371.710.050.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.0970.8364.420.060.03
North TexasSB0.150.0950.0050.010.000.00
UtahP120.150.0918.1815.01-0.09-0.06
BradleyMVC0.150.0924.0024.86-0.08-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0966.6760.800.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.150.0982.6180.420.100.05
Georgia St.CAA0.100.0966.6769.690.030.03
CreightonMVC0.050.0987.5085.410.040.06
George MasonCAA0.050.0976.0072.500.030.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0968.0070.030.020.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0930.4331.43-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.150.0969.5765.150.060.03
MemphisCUSA0.100.0969.5771.510.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0945.4540.70-0.01-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0925.0025.13-0.05-0.04
SyracuseBE0.100.0995.8392.010.090.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0942.1149.81-0.02-0.00
DavidsonSC0.100.0976.1976.760.050.05
BaylorB120.100.0990.9183.850.080.06
DenverSB0.150.0970.8372.230.060.04
DukeACC0.100.0986.3683.090.070.06
MarquetteBE0.150.0979.1775.980.090.04
MissouriB120.100.0991.3087.180.090.06
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0980.7780.750.060.05
PurdueB100.100.0965.2260.580.030.02
Seattleind0.140.0923.5333.28-0.08-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.090.004.02-0.05-0.08
DelawareCAA0.100.0947.8350.65-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0956.5250.270.010.00
South FloridaBE0.100.0954.5548.600.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0840.0040.18-0.01-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.084.005.26-0.09-0.08
AmericanPat0.050.0865.2263.790.020.02
New HampshireAE0.140.0835.0038.58-0.04-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0866.6768.050.030.03
HartfordAE0.090.0817.3920.97-0.06-0.05
IonaMAAC0.050.0879.1780.100.030.05
MaineAE0.050.0850.0049.730.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0650.0051.730.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0626.3229.71-0.05-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0635.2939.85-0.03-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.0647.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.110.0677.2773.450.060.03
NevadaWAC0.100.0680.9576.420.060.03
North CarolinaACC0.100.0686.9683.160.070.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0655.0054.480.010.01
OhioMAC0.100.0681.8277.200.060.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0647.6247.18-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0655.5658.010.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0668.1867.910.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0652.1750.090.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.060.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0656.5254.220.010.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0682.6181.440.030.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0669.5768.900.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0662.5061.500.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0685.7178.050.040.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.38-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0681.8280.430.040.04
IllinoisB100.060.0672.7364.430.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0637.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.410.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.0644.4441.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.100.0661.9067.230.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0628.0028.91-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0643.4840.28-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0636.3638.48-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0668.1869.100.040.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0650.0050.800.000.00
CaliforniaP120.100.0675.0074.610.050.03
ColoradoP120.100.0666.6762.650.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.5554.300.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0645.4541.20-0.00-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0657.1453.120.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.0630.0030.06-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9168.430.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0635.0035.31-0.01-0.02
KansasB120.100.0678.2678.390.060.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0671.4373.350.020.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.068.708.99-0.08-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.100.0678.2672.660.060.03
MarylandACC0.050.0659.0950.820.010.00
MinnesotaB100.100.0669.5761.310.040.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0663.6456.710.030.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0639.1336.10-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6463.160.010.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.0654.5556.090.010.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0652.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0631.8225.98-0.02-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0669.5765.870.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0652.6348.410.01-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0645.4545.70-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.090.0656.5257.150.010.01
RutgersBE0.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0644.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0680.0078.060.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0660.0060.420.010.01
BucknellPat0.000.0673.9175.000.000.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0613.6416.35-0.03-0.04
Old DominionCAA0.050.0660.0058.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0672.2263.190.020.01
BelmontASun0.050.0369.5773.280.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.010.00
CornellIvy0.060.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0359.0959.720.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.04-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0330.4329.50-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0373.9174.910.000.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.000.0319.0521.29-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0368.0069.070.000.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.0041.76-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
North DakotaGWC0.050.0333.3341.31-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.04-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0322.2227.62-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.380.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0334.7835.50-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0333.3338.38-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
Notre DameBE0.000.0365.2262.650.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0347.6246.46-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0330.0033.20-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0352.3852.870.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.000.0328.5730.17-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.02
West VirginiaBE0.050.0365.2265.170.020.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
ArmyPat0.000.0340.9141.72-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0327.2723.80-0.00-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.17-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0379.1778.100.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.13-0.04-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0332.0035.39-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0343.4842.95-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0327.2727.21-0.00-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0337.5038.52-0.00-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.000.0360.8759.050.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0312.5013.44-0.00-0.02