live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:164.0
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:70
Current Record:11-20
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:5-13
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-20164.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8American (118.0)PatH63-60W100%0.0
11-12Lamar (344.0)SlndA54-68W100%0.0
11-16Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH76-70W100%0.0
11-19St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH58-46W100%0.0
11-23Iona (59.0)MAACA89-73L0%0.0
11-26Princeton (122.0)IvyA71-66L0%0.0
11-30Rhode Island (155.0)A10H61-54W100%0.0
12-4South Florida (232.0)AmerH66-68L0%0.0
12-8Oklahoma (26.0)B12N66-81L0%0.0
12-22Iowa St. (7.0)B12N67-79L0%0.0
12-23Oregon St. (100.0)P12N58-54L0%0.0
12-25Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCN63-65W100%0.0
1-2Penn (284.0)IvyH80-77W100%0.0
1-4Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA71-66L0%0.0
1-9VCU (13.0)A10A71-57L0%0.0
1-11Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H80-84L0%0.0
1-15Massachusetts (23.0)A10H87-88L0%0.0
1-18Rhode Island (155.0)A10A71-69L0%0.0
1-22Fordham (226.0)A10A76-70L0%0.0
1-25George Washington (29.0)A10H69-75L0%0.0
2-1Saint Louis (27.0)A10A87-81L0%0.0
2-5Dayton (43.0)A10H67-84L0%0.0
2-8Duquesne (187.0)A10A68-74W100%0.0
2-12Massachusetts (23.0)A10A80-91W100%0.0
2-15St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H73-85L0%0.0
2-19Saint Louis (27.0)A10H85-89L0%0.0
2-26Richmond (75.0)A10H69-60W100%0.0
3-2George Washington (29.0)A10A66-58L0%0.0
3-6La Salle (98.0)A10A57-59W100%0.0
3-8Duquesne (187.0)A10H69-81L0%0.0
3-12Fordham (226.0)A10N67-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.1126.1133.7733.77-8.47-8.47
MassachusettsA103.843.8476.6776.672.052.05
Rhode IslandA103.843.8441.3841.38-0.66-0.66
FordhamA103.843.8427.5927.59-1.72-1.72
George WashingtonA103.813.8173.3373.331.781.78
Saint LouisA103.793.7979.3179.312.222.22
DuquesneA103.783.7840.7440.74-0.70-0.70
VCUA102.382.3875.7675.761.231.23
St. BonaventureA102.332.3351.6151.610.080.08
DaytonA102.332.3368.7568.750.870.87
Saint Joseph'sA102.302.3071.8871.881.011.01
La SalleA102.282.2850.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA102.282.2859.3859.380.430.43
St. Francis PANEC1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
PennIvy1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
Old DominionCUSA1.711.7146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Northern IowaMVC1.711.7151.7251.720.060.06
Iowa St.B121.691.6978.1278.120.950.95
IonaMAAC1.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
PrincetonIvy1.671.6769.2369.230.640.64
AmericanPat1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
OklahomaB121.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
Saint Mary'sWCC1.641.6467.7467.740.580.58
LamarSlnd1.611.6111.1111.11-1.25-1.25
Oregon St.P121.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
ManhattanMAAC0.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
BrownIvy0.190.1951.8551.850.010.01
West VirginiaB120.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
BaylorB120.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
HarvardIvy0.170.1786.2186.210.120.12
YaleIvy0.170.1751.8551.850.010.01
CornellIvy0.170.173.703.70-0.16-0.16
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
KansasB120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Penn St.B100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
LehighPat0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
BucknellPat0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
Washington St.P120.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01