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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:185.3
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:45
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:180
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16120.20.10%
14-17139.00.85%
13-18152.94.77%
12-19166.116.27%
11-20179.629.31%
10-21193.430.63%
9-22206.915.19%
8-23220.72.87%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colgate (228.4)PatH53-66L0%0.0
11-16Mercer (130.1)SCA69-60L0%0.0
11-19Mississippi (111.1)SECN68-62W100%0.0
11-20Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12N68-71W100%0.0
11-22Virginia (6.3)ACCN83-66L0%0.0
11-25Manhattan (227.6)MAACA69-67L0%0.0
11-28Wright St. (156.7)HorzH66-39W100%0.0
12-2Towson (154.8)CAAA75-54L0%0.0
12-5Penn (277.1)IvyH63-44W100%0.0
12-8Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCH65-73L0%0.0
12-12James Madison (82.6)CAAA69-46L0%0.0
12-19Longwood (319.1)BSthH75-70W100%0.0
12-22Wagner (190.7)NECH71-60W100%0.0
1-2VCU (37.0)A10A71-47L0%0.0
1-6St. Bonaventure (52.0)A10H58-77L0%0.0
1-9Davidson (71.7)A10A81-75L0%0.0
1-13Saint Joseph's (33.1)A10H73-87L0%0.0
1-17Saint Louis (201.5)A10A79-92W100%0.0
1-20Fordham (189.5)A10A73-62L0%0.0
1-22Duquesne (112.9)A10H75-86L0%0.0
1-31George Washington (45.0)A10H70-76L0%0.0
2-3Richmond (108.5)A10A74-78W100%0.0
2-6Dayton (13.2)A10H64-98L0%0.0
2-9Rhode Island (100.3)A10A0-011%-13.4
2-13Davidson (71.7)A10H0-036%-3.8
2-17Saint Louis (201.5)A10H0-067%4.7
2-21Massachusetts (196.3)A10A0-033%-4.7
2-24VCU (37.0)A10H0-015%-11.4
2-27La Salle (259.8)A10A0-057%1.9
3-1George Washington (45.0)A10A0-09%-14.7
3-5Richmond (108.5)A10H0-030%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.1326.1232.4332.21-9.18-9.29
RichmondA102.623.9357.1455.890.370.46
George WashingtonA102.573.8877.2772.981.401.78
VCUA102.583.8872.7372.621.171.75
DavidsonA102.613.8757.8956.120.410.47
Saint LouisA102.523.7938.1034.68-0.60-1.16
DuquesneA102.582.2961.9054.930.610.23
FordhamA102.562.2952.6350.490.130.02
La SalleA100.452.2620.0019.61-0.27-1.38
Saint Joseph'sA102.492.2481.8278.191.591.26
MassachusettsA100.452.2440.9138.41-0.08-0.52
DaytonA102.482.2485.7181.771.771.42
St. BonaventureA102.522.2370.0067.841.010.80
Rhode IslandA100.352.2156.5255.550.050.25
TowsonCAA2.311.7563.6458.310.630.29
James MadisonCAA2.271.7269.5768.450.890.64
LongwoodBSth2.271.6923.8125.89-1.19-0.82
MercerSC2.231.6768.1867.980.810.60
Oklahoma St.B122.271.6747.8343.67-0.10-0.21
PennIvy2.221.6741.1839.07-0.39-0.36
MississippiSEC2.221.6768.1860.990.810.37
Northern IowaMVC2.221.6752.1753.520.100.12
VirginiaACC2.221.6681.8277.311.410.91
ColgatePat2.231.6440.9142.75-0.41-0.24
ManhattanMAAC2.231.6440.0039.87-0.45-0.33
WagnerNEC2.171.6166.6767.440.720.56
Wright St.Horz2.171.6159.0959.030.400.29
DrexelCAA0.290.1913.6418.14-0.21-0.12
LafayettePat0.150.1721.7422.99-0.09-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1763.6460.930.050.04
HofstraCAA0.190.1765.2264.210.060.05
AmericanPat0.190.1630.4331.91-0.07-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.190.1671.4369.860.080.06
West VirginiaB120.190.1682.6179.560.120.09
FloridaSEC0.190.1665.2266.070.060.05
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1656.5262.790.020.04
ColumbiaIvy0.150.1466.6765.220.050.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1440.0042.12-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.1437.5043.36-0.05-0.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1465.2262.840.050.04
RadfordBSth0.140.1450.0051.290.000.00
UCFAmer0.100.1452.3845.690.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.190.1352.1751.630.010.00
BradleyMVC0.230.1312.5012.85-0.17-0.10
North FloridaASun0.150.1365.2267.160.040.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1360.8758.370.030.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1213.0413.55-0.12-0.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1128.0030.74-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1150.0051.900.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1179.1780.720.090.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1147.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.150.1134.7837.17-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1128.5731.26-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1119.0525.89-0.12-0.05
UMBCAE0.190.1124.0026.33-0.10-0.05
VillanovaBE0.150.1186.9686.360.110.08
NiagaraMAAC0.200.1124.0024.50-0.11-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1150.0052.350.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1182.6178.660.060.06
PittsburghACC0.150.1176.1968.210.080.04
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1125.0026.86-0.05-0.05
ArmyPat0.140.1154.1754.570.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1145.4547.56-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1134.7836.50-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.140.1121.7423.33-0.08-0.06
ElonCAA0.140.1152.1750.420.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.090.1145.8346.64-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1176.1973.410.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.1152.1751.960.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.1179.1776.080.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1172.0070.510.060.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.1172.7376.360.040.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1173.9169.840.070.04
TCUB120.140.1145.8339.31-0.01-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1147.8350.14-0.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.150.1159.0958.870.030.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1140.9136.60-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.1159.0953.170.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1070.8370.840.040.04
CornellIvy0.050.0942.1140.18-0.01-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.0931.5831.76-0.04-0.03
NavyPat0.150.0962.5062.390.040.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0935.0038.49-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.160.0920.8324.10-0.09-0.04
BucknellPat0.100.0954.5558.170.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.150.0954.1754.120.010.01
MaineAE0.150.0933.3333.12-0.05-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0931.5831.08-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.0972.2274.700.050.04
CanisiusMAAC0.160.0944.0045.27-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.0934.7837.06-0.04-0.02
SienaMAAC0.160.0964.0064.140.040.02
TempleAmer0.110.0863.6459.840.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0854.1755.570.000.01
LehighPat0.090.0836.3639.78-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.0840.0045.50-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0850.0049.450.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.090.0839.1338.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0860.8760.760.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0852.1754.150.010.01
SyracuseACC0.150.0866.6762.580.050.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0881.8276.750.030.04
ChattanoogaSC0.140.0886.9686.690.110.06
FurmanSC0.100.0854.1754.070.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0859.0959.640.030.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0868.0067.980.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0821.7422.73-0.03-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0881.8283.040.030.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0840.9143.34-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.0852.1755.940.000.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0858.3358.410.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0843.4840.57-0.01-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0854.1750.940.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0839.1337.73-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0854.1749.230.01-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0875.0071.700.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0869.5764.850.040.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0873.9170.050.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.140.0845.4551.34-0.010.00
Penn St.B100.100.0850.0046.710.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0847.8346.89-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0673.6874.680.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0625.0026.39-0.02-0.03
CampbellBSth0.100.0628.5729.64-0.04-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.93-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0652.0050.240.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.010.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.480.000.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0622.7324.79-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0636.3636.08-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.100.0625.0023.34-0.05-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0665.2266.170.030.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.010.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0623.8126.57-0.05-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0614.2920.64-0.07-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0630.4326.54-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0647.6252.07-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0659.0959.350.010.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0654.5556.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.23-0.04-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0633.3335.08-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0641.6742.60-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0631.8230.06-0.03-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0627.2731.06-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.0016.70-0.03-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.36-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.100.0560.8760.780.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.0531.8230.47-0.04-0.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0558.3354.120.020.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0533.3335.47-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.100.0591.3084.340.080.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0557.8956.080.010.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0573.9171.560.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0536.8442.90-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0531.8236.15-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0521.7423.66-0.05-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0575.0076.230.020.03
HartfordAE0.050.0525.0026.76-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0543.4842.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.180.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0527.7834.19-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.3920.66-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0523.8127.69-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.0559.0953.040.020.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0070.940.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0513.6415.79-0.07-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0556.5260.010.010.01
BaylorB120.090.0572.7366.460.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0534.7834.54-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0561.9056.690.010.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.600.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0571.4369.420.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0540.9140.65-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0534.7830.38-0.01-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0586.9682.610.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.059.0917.12-0.04-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0521.7420.35-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0520.0019.67-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0566.6762.220.020.01
WisconsinB100.050.0560.8755.840.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.25-0.05-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0365.2261.090.020.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.300.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.220.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.100.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0357.1453.980.010.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.390.040.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.64-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.37-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.30-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.19-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0352.3847.040.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.39-0.03-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.70-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.31-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0321.0527.79-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.420.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0362.5059.800.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.00-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.700.030.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0336.3638.93-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.590.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0320.0022.32-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.730.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.580.020.01
Washington St.P120.050.0336.3631.98-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.69-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0369.5766.530.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
LSUSEC0.050.0365.2260.250.010.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.700.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0354.1751.850.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.140.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.430.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.70-0.02-0.01