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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:189.3
Current RPI:186
Expected SOS:133
Current SOS:243
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-749.00.01%
21-979.40.05%
20-1091.20.12%
19-11104.30.93%
18-12118.52.87%
17-13134.56.83%
16-14153.212.14%
15-15171.617.33%
14-16189.420.05%
13-17208.417.48%
12-18226.812.66%
11-19246.05.94%
10-20260.82.64%
9-21276.40.77%
8-22289.80.14%
7-23303.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Towson (157.6)CAAH61-67L0%0.0
11-18Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECH76-78L0%0.0
11-21Houston (37.7)AmerN56-93L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (194.9)MACN79-75W100%0.0
11-23Bradley (272.5)MVCN77-66W100%0.0
11-26James Madison (255.3)CAAH80-77W100%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (117.4)MVCA50-54W100%0.0
12-3Mercer (184.8)SCH79-68W100%0.0
12-7Penn St. (121.4)B10A0-022%-9.4
12-10Penn (143.1)IvyA0-028%-7.1
12-12Longwood (332.7)BSthH0-092%16.6
12-22Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH0-092%16.6
12-30VCU (41.9)A10H0-024%-8.6
1-4Massachusetts (108.8)A10H0-043%-2.2
1-7St. Bonaventure (59.0)A10A0-014%-13.2
1-10Saint Joseph's (127.9)A10A0-028%-6.9
1-14Saint Louis (286.9)A10H0-081%10.4
1-22Richmond (176.7)A10A0-030%-6.3
1-25George Washington (189.2)A10H0-058%2.5
1-28Massachusetts (108.8)A10A0-024%-8.4
2-1Saint Louis (286.9)A10A0-064%4.2
2-4La Salle (94.8)A10H0-041%-2.6
2-8Davidson (68.7)A10A0-015%-12.3
2-11Fordham (222.3)A10H0-061%3.3
2-14Richmond (176.7)A10H0-050%-0.0
2-18Rhode Island (37.3)A10H0-022%-9.4
2-21Dayton (37.2)A10A0-08%-16.8
2-26George Washington (189.2)A10A0-038%-3.8
3-1Duquesne (228.7)A10H0-064%4.2
3-4VCU (41.9)A10A0-011%-14.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1028.4926.1154.7644.462.71-2.89
George WashingtonA100.003.9755.5640.970.00-0.72
RichmondA100.003.9650.0047.370.00-0.21
VCUA100.003.9475.0072.380.001.76
Saint LouisA100.003.8928.5723.51-0.00-2.06
MassachusettsA100.003.8971.4358.050.000.63
La SalleA100.002.3866.6755.430.000.26
DavidsonA100.452.3871.4362.390.190.59
DuquesneA100.002.3544.4442.23-0.00-0.37
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.3342.8644.39-0.00-0.26
Rhode IslandA100.002.3362.5068.820.000.88
St. BonaventureA100.002.3271.4369.840.000.92
DaytonA100.002.3271.4372.840.001.06
FordhamA100.002.3050.0041.380.00-0.40
James MadisonCAA6.251.8114.2931.73-4.46-0.66
Penn St.B100.001.7566.6745.360.00-0.16
BradleyMVC6.251.7350.0028.920.00-0.73
MercerSC6.251.7250.0049.460.00-0.02
PennIvy0.001.7233.3355.97-0.000.21
HoustonAmer6.251.7283.3377.534.170.95
Northern IowaMVC6.251.7240.0054.80-1.250.17
TowsonCAA6.251.7233.3351.58-2.080.05
LongwoodBSth0.391.6920.0022.32-0.23-0.94
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.451.6914.2932.07-0.32-0.61
Kent St.MAC6.251.6766.6756.232.080.21
Mount St. Mary'sNEC6.251.670.0046.47-6.25-0.12
HarvardIvy0.000.2220.0046.79-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.2275.0064.920.000.07
DrexelCAA0.000.2050.0040.600.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.350.2057.1449.130.05-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.450.1922.2241.71-0.25-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.1985.7176.240.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.840.1971.4368.050.360.07
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1775.0086.710.000.12
DelawareCAA0.450.1750.0041.990.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.450.1762.5043.220.11-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1680.0054.540.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.1450.0071.070.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.1433.3348.07-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1425.0063.27-0.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1460.0067.760.000.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1471.4358.920.000.03
VMISC0.000.140.0016.78-0.00-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.000.1442.8647.11-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1466.6761.550.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1433.3339.94-0.00-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1433.3332.92-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.450.1450.0044.400.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1483.3377.100.000.08
William & MaryCAA0.000.1433.3346.01-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0020.55-0.00-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1257.1467.260.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0019.67-0.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1242.8650.11-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.590.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1242.8644.71-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3379.850.000.07
WoffordSC0.890.110.0034.81-0.89-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.390.1150.0066.300.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.1162.5056.520.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1166.6766.340.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.1171.4359.470.000.02
MarylandB100.450.1187.5059.330.330.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1187.5082.360.000.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1116.6739.78-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0023.69-0.00-0.06
St. John'sBE0.000.1137.5037.03-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1116.6744.34-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.1162.5050.710.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0020.75-0.00-0.06
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3354.47-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.450.0928.5734.28-0.19-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0955.5646.970.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0942.8642.62-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.450.0928.5729.95-0.19-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.0987.5062.040.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
AkronMAC0.450.0871.4368.980.190.03
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0877.7849.900.25-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.450.0857.1429.790.06-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.21-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.0825.0031.41-0.22-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.080.0025.23-0.45-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0837.5047.91-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0825.0030.23-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.890.0814.2938.26-0.64-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.350.0862.5067.390.090.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0837.5047.37-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.450.0871.4349.170.19-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0875.0056.590.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0048.810.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.370.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0837.5033.74-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0837.5052.01-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1433.230.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.350.0842.8645.94-0.05-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0820.0022.75-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.450.0857.1450.080.060.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5059.310.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.010.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.350.0887.5068.020.260.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.41-0.000.02
XavierBE1.040.0687.5070.890.780.02
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.520.0662.5040.460.13-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.960.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.390.0671.4351.460.170.00
FloridaSEC0.450.0687.5075.240.330.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.04
LehighPat0.000.0642.8666.67-0.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.170.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.450.0677.7871.970.250.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
South DakotaSum0.890.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0675.0054.490.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.350.0585.7166.190.250.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0528.5731.44-0.19-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0588.8978.400.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.040.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0562.5051.790.000.00
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.590.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0550.0043.560.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0512.5029.71-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0587.5065.250.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0060.620.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.490.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0571.4355.820.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0516.6729.81-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.050.0034.47-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.350.0575.0066.460.170.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5076.230.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0542.8646.14-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0049.180.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.340.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0514.2926.74-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.920.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0522.2238.49-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0562.5066.900.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.050.0024.64-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0371.4359.880.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0314.2924.15-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0325.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.520.0371.4348.350.22-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0325.0039.59-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.520.0366.6754.050.170.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.450.0342.8643.60-0.06-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0350.0046.240.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.740.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.030.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.390.0371.4363.930.170.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.390.0350.0062.380.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.390.0375.0071.470.200.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.450.0342.8638.63-0.06-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.450.0328.5738.15-0.19-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
VermontAE0.450.0362.5071.320.110.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.350.0371.4368.070.150.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
West VirginiaB120.350.0385.7183.660.250.02