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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:224.0
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:52
Current SOS:61
Current Record:2-6
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-3
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1480.00.01%
14-15105.80.08%
13-16123.30.23%
12-17140.51.14%
11-18158.93.35%
10-19178.98.48%
9-20197.515.03%
8-21216.221.42%
7-22234.321.81%
6-23252.416.07%
5-24268.58.66%
4-25282.43.06%
3-26297.10.63%
2-27307.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cornell (180.9)IvyH60-68L0%0.0
11-16Princeton (239.3)IvyH63-60W100%0.0
11-20West Virginia (26.8)B12N91-65L0%0.0
11-21New Mexico (110.1)MWCN58-69L0%0.0
11-23College of Charleston (185.8)CAAN60-61L0%0.0
11-29Manhattan (288.5)MAACH64-63W100%0.0
12-3Old Dominion (48.2)CUSAH69-75L0%0.0
12-6Northern Iowa (36.0)MVCA71-65L0%0.0
12-20Iona (81.7)MAACH0-029%-6.4
12-23Wright St. (128.3)HorzA0-019%-10.3
12-31Oklahoma (19.0)B12A0-02%-23.7
1-3La Salle (126.5)A10H0-042%-2.4
1-8Richmond (88.0)A10A0-011%-14.3
1-11Massachusetts (88.2)A10H0-035%-4.5
1-14St. Bonaventure (106.1)A10A0-013%-13.3
1-17George Washington (78.4)A10A0-08%-16.8
1-24Davidson (32.1)A10H0-015%-12.5
1-29Saint Louis (268.1)A10H0-076%8.4
1-31Duquesne (254.7)A10A0-038%-3.7
2-4VCU (25.4)A10H0-018%-10.6
2-7Saint Joseph's (193.4)A10A0-033%-5.3
2-11Davidson (32.1)A10A0-04%-21.2
2-14Richmond (88.0)A10H0-032%-5.5
2-18Fordham (260.8)A10H0-072%6.8
2-21Rhode Island (61.4)A10H0-018%-10.7
2-25Dayton (74.6)A10A0-010%-15.4
2-28Saint Louis (268.1)A10A0-049%-0.4
3-4George Washington (78.4)A10H0-025%-8.0
3-7VCU (25.4)A10A0-05%-19.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1027.5826.1315.7922.51-18.87-14.37
VCUA100.664.2170.0070.370.261.71
RichmondA100.664.1850.0055.570.000.47
DavidsonA100.004.1487.5075.970.002.15
George WashingtonA100.004.1266.6765.430.001.27
Saint LouisA100.004.0660.0033.750.00-1.32
DuquesneA100.002.4628.5730.11-0.00-0.98
MassachusettsA100.352.4360.0055.220.070.25
DaytonA100.002.4077.7869.180.000.92
FordhamA100.002.3928.5728.27-0.00-1.04
St. BonaventureA100.002.3975.0064.200.000.68
Rhode IslandA100.002.3962.5073.270.001.11
La SalleA100.002.3750.0049.500.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.002.3755.5639.260.00-0.51
ManhattanMAAC6.251.8425.0039.07-3.12-0.40
Northern IowaMVC6.251.8488.8977.374.861.00
Old DominionCUSA6.251.8487.5080.474.691.12
College of CharlestonCAA6.561.8144.4442.80-0.73-0.26
IonaMAAC0.001.8166.6772.440.000.81
West VirginiaB126.561.8188.8965.655.100.57
CornellIvy6.251.7850.0046.750.00-0.12
PrincetonIvy6.251.7830.0039.12-2.50-0.39
OklahomaB120.001.7877.7866.280.000.58
New MexicoMWC6.251.7266.6757.012.080.24
Wright St.Horz0.001.7255.5652.800.000.10
SienaMAAC0.000.2337.5051.47-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.2114.2931.11-0.00-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.310.2155.5665.660.030.06
VirginiaACC0.000.20100.0085.770.000.15
CanisiusMAAC0.350.2050.0061.650.000.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2036.3647.27-0.08-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1841.6744.37-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.1837.5032.89-0.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.310.1744.4456.70-0.030.02
DrexelCAA0.350.1725.0037.61-0.17-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.350.1766.6757.570.120.03
Penn St.B100.350.1590.9154.060.280.01
BrownIvy0.000.1540.0033.85-0.00-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.1544.4447.44-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.1530.0044.01-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1585.7172.940.000.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.350.1550.0053.700.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1537.5048.87-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.280.1445.4552.00-0.030.01
KansasB120.000.1488.8969.540.000.06
MaristMAAC0.350.1410.0018.78-0.28-0.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1437.5045.89-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1433.3332.85-0.00-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.350.1466.6764.900.120.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1457.1456.560.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.350.1255.5654.600.040.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1262.5065.190.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.1270.0064.820.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1260.0062.430.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.350.1244.4439.99-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1133.3332.03-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1160.0049.650.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1187.5085.210.000.08
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0038.030.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.1190.0073.960.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.620.1166.6741.940.21-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1188.8964.130.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0037.340.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.230.000.03
TCUB120.000.11100.0066.280.000.04
TexasB120.000.1190.0081.760.000.07
Texas TechB120.000.1188.8955.730.000.01
LSUSEC0.660.1177.7862.380.370.03
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0082.310.000.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.1170.0060.810.000.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0944.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1821.69-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.310.0980.0069.840.190.04
PittsburghACC0.350.0966.6752.270.120.00
CampbellBSth0.310.0925.0044.80-0.16-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.690.090.0012.01-0.69-0.07
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.520.00-0.02
RutgersB100.350.0960.0034.930.07-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0975.0070.220.000.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0937.5041.33-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.310.0933.3338.88-0.10-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.350.090.0023.23-0.35-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0957.1454.700.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0950.0059.880.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0955.5648.830.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.090.008.74-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0055.940.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.310.0925.0038.24-0.16-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.620.0977.7865.350.350.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0975.0060.600.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.42-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.620.0857.1456.210.090.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0877.7878.200.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0881.8264.060.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0866.6751.310.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.710.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.56-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0051.40-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.470.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1128.93-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.040.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4544.47-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0032.16-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.080.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.0636.3638.88-0.09-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.090.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.35-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0032.540.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.340.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6738.970.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.81-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.68-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0021.05-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.880.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.0620.0029.28-0.19-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.0628.5741.30-0.12-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.350.0633.3327.49-0.12-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.0620.0037.19-0.19-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.280.060.007.87-0.28-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.280.0666.6772.280.090.03
ColgatePat0.350.0620.0042.80-0.21-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.350.0650.0037.400.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.600.0675.0069.390.300.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.280.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.510.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.970.000.03
DenverSum0.310.0650.0053.980.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0020.14-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.48-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0650.0039.320.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.310.0636.3664.92-0.090.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.04-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0670.0072.770.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0024.33-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.71-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.090.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.12-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.660.0637.5050.07-0.160.00
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0053.790.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.310.0655.5638.100.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.420.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4364.070.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.250.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.18-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0666.6759.200.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.890.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0037.67-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.160.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.160.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.82-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8650.31-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.700.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.830.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.81-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.75-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.530.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0350.0062.870.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.520.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.580.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0322.2245.85-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.0066.470.230.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.280.0375.0074.350.140.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0310.0041.11-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.05-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0325.0042.50-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.370.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.280.0354.5557.610.030.00
South CarolinaSEC0.350.0362.5064.360.090.01
Stony BrookAE0.280.0337.5055.05-0.070.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.600.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.05-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3341.58-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.470.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.030.0017.71-0.31-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.600.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.540.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.350.0362.5071.700.090.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.070.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.37-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.310.0316.6733.24-0.21-0.01
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.590.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0040.49-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.310.0333.3345.26-0.10-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0370.0066.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4444.99-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6752.510.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.65-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0337.5038.03-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.75-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.310.0325.0032.64-0.16-0.01
North FloridaASun0.310.0344.4456.92-0.030.00
NorthwesternB100.310.0360.0040.460.06-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0037.61-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4444.76-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.93-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.0366.6777.710.100.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.680.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3338.24-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.410.000.00
USCP120.310.0360.0037.230.06-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0072.030.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.24-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.430.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.060.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.780.000.01
FurmanSC0.310.0325.0029.26-0.16-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.760.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.310.0325.0033.13-0.16-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.750.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.77-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.310.0316.6730.49-0.21-0.01