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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:191.3
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:266
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:182
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-640.00.01%
23-746.60.05%
22-858.60.08%
21-979.50.58%
20-1092.11.25%
19-11111.23.45%
18-12128.46.22%
17-13147.39.59%
16-14166.214.29%
15-15185.716.75%
14-16205.116.50%
13-17222.613.36%
12-18241.59.52%
11-19257.44.80%
10-20272.42.23%
9-21287.00.94%
8-22294.90.29%
7-23304.60.07%
6-24315.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Lafayette (326.5)PatH67-65W100%0.0
11-12Louisville (28.0)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
11-16Binghamton (282.5)AEH69-57W100%0.0
11-18Cal St. Northridge (271.1)BWH78-73W100%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (113.7)CUSAN0-042%-2.5
11-29James Madison (261.3)CAAA0-059%2.7
12-3Auburn (91.7)SECA0-019%-10.7
12-6William & Mary (230.9)CAAH0-073%7.4
12-9North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACH0-083%11.5
12-12Georgia Southern (105.3)SBH0-051%0.3
12-17Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-033%-5.3
12-22Morgan St. (319.1)MEACH0-093%17.9
12-30Rhode Island (26.4)A10A0-09%-15.8
1-3Massachusetts (194.1)A10A0-040%-2.9
1-7Davidson (46.9)A10H0-027%-7.4
1-10Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10H0-040%-3.2
1-13Saint Louis (146.5)A10H0-052%0.6
1-17George Washington (163.9)A10A0-037%-4.0
1-20Duquesne (253.1)A10A0-051%0.3
1-27VCU (92.7)A10H0-033%-5.2
1-31St. Bonaventure (90.6)A10H0-040%-2.9
2-3Richmond (219.9)A10A0-046%-1.1
2-7Fordham (245.6)A10A0-051%0.2
2-10George Washington (163.9)A10H0-057%2.0
2-14Dayton (77.6)A10H0-037%-3.9
2-17La Salle (107.5)A10A0-029%-6.6
2-21Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10A0-022%-9.2
2-24Massachusetts (194.1)A10H0-060%3.1
2-28VCU (92.7)A10A0-017%-11.2
3-3Richmond (219.9)A10H0-066%4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1034.9026.1675.0045.0517.45-2.59
George WashingtonA100.004.0366.6745.360.00-0.37
RichmondA100.003.990.0029.230.00-1.66
VCUA100.003.9666.6765.980.001.27
MassachusettsA100.003.9450.0041.630.00-0.66
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.9366.6758.810.000.69
DaytonA100.002.3866.6762.130.000.58
FordhamA100.002.3633.3335.710.00-0.67
DavidsonA100.002.35100.0069.960.000.94
La SalleA100.002.3575.0050.500.000.02
Saint LouisA100.002.3366.6753.570.000.17
St. BonaventureA100.002.3350.0054.260.000.20
DuquesneA100.002.33100.0047.630.00-0.11
Rhode IslandA100.002.3250.0072.590.001.05
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.8133.3336.24-0.52-0.50
James MadisonCAA0.001.790.0031.480.00-0.66
Penn St.B100.001.75100.0060.170.000.36
BinghamtonAE12.501.7333.3339.49-4.17-0.36
William & MaryCAA0.001.7233.3335.530.00-0.50
Cal St. NorthridgeBW12.501.700.0042.40-12.50-0.26
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.700.0050.500.000.02
AuburnSEC0.001.7066.6749.610.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.001.67100.0065.070.000.50
LafayettePat12.501.670.0022.78-12.50-0.91
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.67100.0063.790.000.46
LouisvilleACC12.501.67100.0065.8912.500.53
BucknellPat0.000.260.0061.460.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2175.0072.950.000.10
MaineAE0.000.200.0013.450.00-0.15
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.180.0021.590.00-0.10
TowsonCAA0.000.1850.0066.710.000.06
DelawareCAA0.000.1850.0048.680.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1833.3339.360.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.17100.0056.600.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.150.0025.140.00-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.150.0036.490.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1550.0050.360.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.15100.0078.750.000.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1566.6768.790.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1550.0049.480.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.1566.6774.120.000.07
HamptonMEAC0.000.150.0048.070.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.150.0046.080.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.150.0028.720.00-0.06
HofstraCAA0.000.1575.0056.120.000.02
PennIvy0.000.1533.3349.350.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.140.0051.010.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1450.0065.140.000.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.14100.0048.790.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0074.140.000.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.14100.0068.200.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1433.3354.200.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0022.840.00-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0018.400.00-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0028.770.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1266.6748.280.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.1233.3350.840.000.00
VillanovaBE2.080.12100.0082.962.080.08
Wake ForestACC0.000.1225.0035.000.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0061.320.000.03
VMISC0.000.1233.3327.450.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.120.0048.110.00-0.00
CornellIvy1.560.1133.3334.68-0.52-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.11100.0067.950.000.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.1150.0042.730.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0064.570.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0074.500.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.000.11100.0053.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1175.0058.930.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1133.3334.560.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0966.6749.100.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0933.3345.780.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.090.0045.640.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0950.0048.410.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0950.0052.870.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6768.320.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0950.0053.620.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0950.0050.310.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.090.0038.210.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.09100.0075.130.000.04
TexasB120.000.09100.0063.830.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.09100.0072.510.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0975.0045.290.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.090.0055.380.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0055.040.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0850.0051.840.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0825.0032.490.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0866.6755.210.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.08100.0071.700.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.08100.0059.250.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0875.0061.940.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0035.130.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.170.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0650.0051.070.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0633.3346.090.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3346.410.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0666.6757.400.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC1.560.06100.0051.901.560.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0078.910.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.060.0030.350.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.060.0037.310.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0052.900.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0059.240.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0666.6771.200.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0045.730.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0051.410.000.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.06100.0053.790.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6740.070.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0533.3341.220.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0575.0071.830.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0054.680.000.01
PurdueB100.000.05100.0085.360.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0030.910.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.320.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.050.0021.380.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC3.120.0350.0060.060.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0034.730.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0069.320.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3336.410.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6728.760.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0366.6773.200.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
NJITASun2.080.0333.3333.21-0.69-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0325.0054.930.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0029.290.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.970.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum3.120.030.0035.76-3.12-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01