George Mason

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	82.0
Current RPI:	82
Expected SOS:	185
Current SOS:	185
Current Record:	24-9
Expected Record:	24-9
Current Conf Record:	15-5
Expected Conf Record:	15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-2
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	120
Expected OOC SOS:	237

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-9	82.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	H	92-90	W	100%
11-14	Florida International (251.0)	SB	N	76-79	L	0%
11-15	Monmouth (236.0)	NEC	N	71-39	W	100%
11-19	Florida Atlantic (207.0)	SB	A	80-75	L	0%
11-21	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	H	74-48	W	100%
11-22	Albany (215.0)	AE	H	66-46	W	100%
11-30	Bucknell (88.0)	Pat	H	61-57	W	100%
12-3	Towson (311.0)	CAA	A	53-65	W	100%
12-6	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	A	68-48	L	0%
12-10	Radford (329.0)	BSth	A	61-76	W	100%
12-21	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	H	64-75	L	0%
12-23	Manhattan (149.0)	MAAC	H	81-61	W	100%
12-30	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	A	76-84	W	100%
1-2	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	70-56	W	100%
1-5	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	A	54-63	W	100%
1-7	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	61-58	W	100%
1-12	Drexel (64.0)	CAA	A	60-53	L	0%
1-14	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	A	83-89	W	100%
1-18	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	H	89-63	W	100%
1-21	Towson (311.0)	CAA	H	72-60	W	100%
1-23	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	H	67-61	W	100%
1-25	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	A	50-55	W	100%
1-28	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	89-79	W	100%
2-1	Delaware (153.0)	CAA	A	65-60	L	0%
2-4	Old Dominion (103.0)	CAA	H	54-50	W	100%
2-8	Hofstra (263.0)	CAA	H	72-62	W	100%
2-11	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	A	69-75	W	100%
2-14	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	H	62-61	W	100%
2-18	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	75-71	W	100%
2-22	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	85-82	L	0%
2-25	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	A	89-77	L	0%
3-3	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	N	61-59	W	100%
3-4	Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)	CAA	N	74-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
George Mason	CAA	26.26	26.26	74.82	74.82	13.03	13.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	5.26	5.26	83.87	83.87	3.56	3.56
Georgia St.	CAA	3.86	3.86	70.00	70.00	1.55	1.55
Hofstra	CAA	3.84	3.84	33.33	33.33	-1.28	-1.28
NC Wilmington	CAA	3.83	3.83	34.48	34.48	-1.19	-1.19
Delaware	CAA	3.81	3.81	58.62	58.62	0.66	0.66
Towson	CAA	3.81	3.81	3.33	3.33	-3.55	-3.55
Old Dominion	CAA	3.79	3.79	64.52	64.52	1.10	1.10
James Madison	CAA	3.76	3.76	40.00	40.00	-0.75	-0.75
Drexel	CAA	2.44	2.44	81.25	81.25	1.52	1.52
Northeastern	CAA	2.34	2.34	43.33	43.33	-0.31	-0.31
William & Mary	CAA	2.29	2.29	16.67	16.67	-1.53	-1.53
Rhode Island	A10	1.71	1.71	23.33	23.33	-0.91	-0.91
Manhattan	MAAC	1.68	1.68	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.66	1.66	32.14	32.14	-0.59	-0.59
Florida International	SB	1.61	1.61	25.93	25.93	-0.78	-0.78
Brown	Ivy	1.61	1.61	24.14	24.14	-0.83	-0.83
Virginia	ACC	1.59	1.59	70.00	70.00	0.63	0.63
Albany	AE	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
Radford	BSth	1.56	1.56	13.79	13.79	-1.13	-1.13
Monmouth	NEC	1.56	1.56	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Duquesne	A10	1.54	1.54	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	1.52	1.52	74.19	74.19	0.73	0.73
College of Charleston	SC	1.52	1.52	63.33	63.33	0.40	0.40
Lamar	Slnd	1.52	1.52	67.74	67.74	0.54	0.54
Western Kentucky	SB	0.27	0.27	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.24	0.24	63.64	63.64	0.07	0.07
Boston University	AE	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Binghamton	AE	0.19	0.19	6.45	6.45	-0.16	-0.16
Maryland	ACC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Siena	MAAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Dayton	A10	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	7.14	7.14	-0.10	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	86.21	86.21	0.07	0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	94.12	94.12	0.08	0.08
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	65.38	65.38	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01