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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:201.0
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:89
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-5
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21201.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colgate (241.0)PatH53-66L0%0.0
11-16Mercer (194.0)SCA69-60L0%0.0
11-19Mississippi (96.0)SECN68-62W100%0.0
11-20Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12N68-71W100%0.0
11-22Virginia (3.0)ACCN83-66L0%0.0
11-25Manhattan (229.0)MAACA69-67L0%0.0
11-28Wright St. (146.0)HorzH66-39W100%0.0
12-2Towson (150.0)CAAA75-54L0%0.0
12-5Penn (283.0)IvyH63-44W100%0.0
12-8Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH65-73L0%0.0
12-12James Madison (103.0)CAAA69-46L0%0.0
12-19Longwood (323.0)BSthH75-70W100%0.0
12-22Wagner (185.0)NECH71-60W100%0.0
1-2VCU (37.0)A10A71-47L0%0.0
1-6St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10H58-77L0%0.0
1-9Davidson (64.0)A10A81-75L0%0.0
1-13Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10H73-87L0%0.0
1-17Saint Louis (206.0)A10A79-92W100%0.0
1-20Fordham (176.0)A10A73-62L0%0.0
1-22Duquesne (162.0)A10H75-86L0%0.0
1-31George Washington (68.0)A10H70-76L0%0.0
2-3Richmond (121.0)A10A74-78W100%0.0
2-6Dayton (21.0)A10H64-98L0%0.0
2-9Rhode Island (119.0)A10A81-63L0%0.0
2-13Davidson (64.0)A10H60-59W100%0.0
2-17Saint Louis (206.0)A10H77-79L0%0.0
2-21Massachusetts (171.0)A10A70-64L0%0.0
2-24VCU (37.0)A10H76-69W100%0.0
2-27La Salle (232.0)A10A76-68L0%0.0
3-1George Washington (68.0)A10A74-52L0%0.0
3-5Richmond (121.0)A10H83-73W100%0.0
3-9Saint Louis (206.0)A10N78-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.1326.1331.2531.25-9.80-9.80
Saint LouisA105.255.2531.0331.03-1.99-1.99
VCUA103.863.8671.8871.881.691.69
RichmondA103.843.8453.3353.330.260.26
George WashingtonA103.833.8367.7467.741.361.36
DavidsonA103.833.8362.0762.070.920.92
Saint Joseph'sA102.282.2878.7978.791.311.31
La SalleA102.262.2624.1424.14-1.17-1.17
DaytonA102.252.2577.4277.421.231.23
DuquesneA102.252.2546.6746.67-0.15-0.15
FordhamA102.252.2553.5753.570.160.16
MassachusettsA102.232.2341.9441.94-0.36-0.36
St. BonaventureA102.222.2272.4172.411.001.00
Rhode IslandA102.152.1551.6151.610.070.07
TowsonCAA1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
James MadisonCAA1.661.6663.3363.330.440.44
LongwoodBSth1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
MississippiSEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
MercerSC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
PennIvy1.611.6138.4638.46-0.37-0.37
Northern IowaMVC1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
VirginiaACC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
ColgatePat1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
ManhattanMAAC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
WagnerNEC1.561.5670.0070.000.620.62
Wright St.Horz1.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
DrexelCAA0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
William & MaryCAA0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Kansas St.B120.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
LafayettePat0.160.1620.0020.00-0.09-0.09
HofstraCAA0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Georgia TechACC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
North FloridaASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ArmyPat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
RiderMAAC0.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
RadfordBSth0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1212.9012.90-0.09-0.09
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Loyola MDPat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
AuburnSEC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
LehighPat0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
FurmanSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Penn St.B100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
DetroitHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0282.1482.140.020.02
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01