George Mason

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	162.0
Current RPI:	162
Expected SOS:	170
Current SOS:	170
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	70
Expected OOC SOS:	35

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	162.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	H	63-59	W	100%
11-13	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	61-56	L	0%
11-16	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	N	52-49	W	100%
11-18	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	N	70-69	L	0%
11-19	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	N	58-74	W	100%
11-24	Boston University (148.0)	AE	H	48-45	W	100%
11-28	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	52-55	W	100%
12-2	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	N	69-62	L	0%
12-4	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	74-63	W	100%
12-8	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	77-82	L	0%
12-22	Richmond (92.0)	A10	N	64-67	W	100%
12-29	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	61-57	L	0%
1-3	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	74-84	L	0%
1-5	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	66-73	W	100%
1-10	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	71-46	W	100%
1-12	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	82-74	L	0%
1-15	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	68-57	W	100%
1-19	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	57-46	W	100%
1-23	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	67-77	W	100%
1-27	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	71-51	L	0%
1-31	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	54-58	L	0%
2-2	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	63-74	W	100%
2-4	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	74-85	W	100%
2-9	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	72-79	L	0%
2-14	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	62-68	W	100%
2-16	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	60-78	L	0%
2-20	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	50-79	W	100%
2-23	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	60-58	W	100%
2-26	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	81-85	L	0%
3-2	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	A	82-77	L	0%
3-9	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	N	60-54	W	100%
3-10	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	N	69-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
George Mason	CAA	26.40	26.40	55.56	55.56	2.93	2.93
Northeastern	CAA	5.52	5.52	58.62	58.62	0.95	0.95
Drexel	CAA	5.46	5.46	42.86	42.86	-0.78	-0.78
James Madison	CAA	4.12	4.12	62.50	62.50	1.03	1.03
Delaware	CAA	4.08	4.08	54.84	54.84	0.39	0.39
Hofstra	CAA	3.98	3.98	20.69	20.69	-2.33	-2.33
Old Dominion	CAA	3.97	3.97	17.86	17.86	-2.55	-2.55
William & Mary	CAA	3.97	3.97	44.44	44.44	-0.44	-0.44
Towson	CAA	3.93	3.93	57.14	57.14	0.56	0.56
Georgia St.	CAA	2.50	2.50	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.46	2.46	28.57	28.57	-1.06	-1.06
Richmond	A10	1.77	1.77	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Boston University	AE	1.71	1.71	60.71	60.71	0.37	0.37
Virginia	ACC	1.71	1.71	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.67	1.67	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
Rhode Island	A10	1.61	1.61	28.57	28.57	-0.69	-0.69
Maryland	ACC	1.61	1.61	63.64	63.64	0.44	0.44
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	1.59	1.59	84.85	84.85	1.11	1.11
Mercer	ASun	1.59	1.59	67.74	67.74	0.56	0.56
Bucknell	Pat	1.56	1.56	83.87	83.87	1.06	1.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
South Florida	BE	1.56	1.56	36.67	36.67	-0.42	-0.42
Vermont	AE	0.31	0.31	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Maine	AE	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
La Salle	A10	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.17	0.17	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.17	0.17	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Hartford	AE	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Davidson	SC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.13	0.13	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	6.90	6.90	-0.09	-0.09
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01