live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:103.0
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:117
Current Record:19-13
Expected Record:19-13
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:259



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-13103.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Towson (88.0)CAAH61-67L0%0.0
11-18Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH76-78L0%0.0
11-21Houston (54.0)AmerN56-93L0%0.0
11-22Kent St. (142.0)MACN79-75W100%0.0
11-23Bradley (220.0)MVCN77-66W100%0.0
11-26James Madison (255.0)CAAH80-77W100%0.0
11-30Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA50-54W100%0.0
12-3Mercer (192.0)SCH79-68W100%0.0
12-7Penn St. (101.0)B10A66-85W100%0.0
12-10Penn (203.0)IvyA60-79W100%0.0
12-12Longwood (343.0)BSthH97-60W100%0.0
12-22Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH75-59W100%0.0
12-30VCU (22.0)A10H64-73L0%0.0
1-4Massachusetts (195.0)A10H86-81W100%0.0
1-7St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A82-72L0%0.0
1-10Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A67-75W100%0.0
1-14Saint Louis (238.0)A10H56-63L0%0.0
1-22Richmond (80.0)A10A77-82W100%0.0
1-25George Washington (102.0)A10H68-87L0%0.0
1-28Massachusetts (195.0)A10A74-76W100%0.0
2-1Saint Louis (238.0)A10A76-74L0%0.0
2-4La Salle (133.0)A10H95-75W100%0.0
2-8Davidson (93.0)A10A69-76W100%0.0
2-11Fordham (215.0)A10H73-67W100%0.0
2-14Richmond (80.0)A10H93-70W100%0.0
2-18Rhode Island (31.0)A10H74-77L0%0.0
2-21Dayton (30.0)A10A83-70L0%0.0
2-26George Washington (102.0)A10A83-74L0%0.0
3-1Duquesne (267.0)A10H63-62W100%0.0
3-4VCU (22.0)A10A72-60L0%0.0
3-9Fordham (215.0)A10N82-71W100%0.0
3-10VCU (22.0)A10N71-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.1726.1757.5957.593.973.97
VCUA105.325.3274.1974.192.582.58
RichmondA103.893.8966.6766.671.301.30
George WashingtonA103.853.8554.8454.840.370.37
Saint LouisA103.733.7332.2632.26-1.33-1.33
MassachusettsA103.713.7148.3948.39-0.12-0.12
FordhamA103.713.7141.3841.38-0.64-0.64
DavidsonA102.362.3654.8454.840.230.23
Rhode IslandA102.322.3271.8871.881.011.01
La SalleA102.292.2951.7251.720.080.08
DuquesneA102.292.2932.2632.26-0.81-0.81
Saint Joseph'sA102.272.2736.6736.67-0.61-0.61
St. BonaventureA102.262.2661.2961.290.510.51
DaytonA102.232.2375.8675.861.161.16
James MadisonCAA1.691.6929.0329.03-0.71-0.71
Penn St.B101.631.6346.8846.88-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC1.621.6238.7138.71-0.36-0.36
PennIvy1.611.6148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
MercerSC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
HoustonAmer1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Northern IowaMVC1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
TowsonCAA1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
LongwoodBSth1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
Kent St.MAC1.561.5663.6463.640.430.43
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.561.5654.5554.550.140.14
HarvardIvy0.230.2361.5461.540.050.05
DrexelCAA0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
TempleAmer0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1942.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.180.1878.5778.570.100.10
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1578.1278.120.090.09
LibertyBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
DelawareCAA0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
VMISC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0744.4444.44-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.050.05
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TCUB120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01