live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:224.6
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:122
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12129.00.02%
18-13140.00.09%
17-14159.70.72%
16-15176.82.88%
15-16193.28.93%
14-17208.618.94%
13-18222.825.52%
12-19236.423.60%
11-20249.013.84%
10-21261.04.71%
9-22275.60.74%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Lafayette (310.3)PatH67-65W100%0.0
11-12Louisville (24.8)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
11-16Binghamton (270.4)AEH69-57W100%0.0
11-18Cal St. Northridge (334.7)BWH78-73W100%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (159.7)CUSAN64-77L0%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (103.9)MWCN79-73L0%0.0
11-29James Madison (277.3)CAAA72-76W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (17.4)SECA79-63L0%0.0
12-6William & Mary (96.1)CAAH70-77L0%0.0
12-9North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
12-12Georgia Southern (118.9)SBH51-74L0%0.0
12-17Penn St. (113.7)B10H54-72L0%0.0
12-22Morgan St. (312.1)MEACH86-79W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (14.4)A10A83-64L0%0.0
1-3Massachusetts (201.1)A10A72-80W100%0.0
1-7Davidson (82.5)A10H59-86L0%0.0
1-10Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10H81-79W100%0.0
1-13Saint Louis (178.1)A10H86-81W100%0.0
1-17George Washington (201.7)A10A80-68L0%0.0
1-20Duquesne (213.1)A10A95-89L0%0.0
1-27VCU (128.6)A10H0-033%-5.0
1-31St. Bonaventure (50.3)A10H0-021%-8.8
2-3Richmond (201.6)A10A0-030%-5.7
2-7Fordham (280.6)A10A0-048%-0.6
2-10George Washington (201.7)A10H0-055%1.5
2-14Dayton (112.2)A10H0-035%-4.3
2-17La Salle (181.9)A10A0-023%-8.4
2-21Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10A0-018%-10.3
2-24Massachusetts (201.1)A10H0-051%0.3
2-28VCU (128.6)A10A0-015%-11.4
3-3Richmond (201.6)A10H0-052%0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.3726.1139.7736.89-5.39-6.84
George WashingtonA102.913.8742.1141.50-0.46-0.66
RichmondA100.263.8431.5832.61-0.10-1.33
VCUA100.193.8160.0058.570.040.65
MassachusettsA102.703.7952.6348.320.14-0.13
Saint Joseph'sA102.633.7852.9452.400.150.18
DaytonA100.332.2847.3750.46-0.020.02
La SalleA100.262.2540.0041.57-0.05-0.38
DavidsonA102.632.2556.2560.060.330.45
FordhamA100.212.2531.5828.26-0.08-0.98
St. BonaventureA100.272.2366.6768.370.090.82
DuquesneA102.632.2368.4256.710.970.30
Saint LouisA102.772.2250.0048.520.00-0.07
Rhode IslandA102.692.2282.3580.751.741.37
Morgan St.MEAC2.781.7531.2541.14-1.04-0.31
James MadisonCAA2.651.7326.3229.22-1.25-0.72
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.711.7018.7520.05-1.70-1.02
BinghamtonAE2.711.7047.0644.27-0.16-0.19
Penn St.B102.631.6960.0054.290.530.15
William & MaryCAA2.631.6762.5058.440.660.28
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.571.6446.6756.17-0.170.20
Fresno St.MWC2.571.6464.7162.060.760.40
AuburnSEC2.501.6488.8976.271.940.86
Georgia SouthernSB2.501.6164.7164.120.740.46
LafayettePat2.501.6123.5328.53-1.32-0.69
Louisiana TechCUSA2.501.6150.0053.700.000.12
LouisvilleACC2.501.6176.4768.331.320.59
BucknellPat0.140.2461.9068.010.030.09
Old DominionCUSA0.140.2278.9576.760.080.12
TowsonCAA0.220.2063.1666.000.060.06
MaineAE0.200.1910.5314.86-0.16-0.13
HarvardIvy0.190.1837.5046.63-0.05-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.170.009.15-0.21-0.14
DrexelCAA0.210.1730.0030.99-0.08-0.06
DelawareCAA0.140.1747.3743.04-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.200.1757.8959.470.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.200.1626.3230.43-0.10-0.06
VirginiaACC0.140.1694.4485.440.130.11
TempleAmer0.200.1652.6351.730.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.220.1527.7834.50-0.10-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.360.1442.1143.50-0.06-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1415.7920.92-0.09-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.140.1420.0041.76-0.08-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1410.5327.31-0.11-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.1422.2227.33-0.04-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1466.6765.620.020.04
NortheasternCAA0.200.1463.1663.180.050.04
VermontAE0.000.1473.6877.120.000.07
PennIvy0.070.1464.7162.780.020.03
UABCUSA0.130.1461.1164.130.030.04
PrincetonIvy0.200.1352.9460.270.010.03
Appalachian St.SB0.210.1333.3337.22-0.07-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.130.1366.6765.530.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.130.1373.6869.610.060.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.1210.0019.62-0.06-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.129.5217.94-0.17-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1255.5656.710.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.280.1152.6347.360.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.140.1152.6351.090.010.00
NevadaMWC0.210.1185.7182.070.150.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.1183.3381.350.040.07
CornellIvy0.270.1133.3333.36-0.09-0.04
VillanovaBE0.140.1194.7490.310.120.09
AlabamaSEC0.200.1168.4258.990.070.02
New HampshireAE0.130.1129.4138.15-0.05-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.1129.4130.67-0.03-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.1144.4441.15-0.01-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.200.1170.0060.460.080.02
VMISC0.140.1125.0024.17-0.07-0.05
Seton HallBE0.140.1175.0067.890.070.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1168.4255.060.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1066.6755.930.040.01
Miami FLACC0.060.1076.4769.020.030.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.1061.1151.900.010.00
PittsburghACC0.190.1040.0030.87-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.220.0968.4263.640.080.02
NavyPat0.140.0960.0055.160.030.01
Cal PolyBW0.140.0923.5328.21-0.08-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.140.0940.0043.34-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.0970.0071.230.090.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0918.7536.76-0.09-0.02
ArmyPat0.140.0961.1160.530.030.02
ColgatePat0.140.0950.0051.040.000.00
HawaiiBW0.150.0968.7563.960.060.02
Loyola MDPat0.140.0922.2228.67-0.08-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.0829.4133.22-0.09-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.200.0850.0047.670.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0842.1145.97-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0816.6724.46-0.10-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0823.5325.63-0.07-0.04
UTSACUSA0.130.0841.1839.65-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0880.9576.520.050.04
AlbanyAE0.140.0870.0068.050.060.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0872.2274.700.060.04
South AlabamaSB0.070.0850.0045.900.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.0868.4264.200.050.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0836.8431.12-0.02-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.0831.5830.00-0.05-0.03
TexasB120.070.0863.1657.620.020.01
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.320.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0857.1453.220.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.0852.6350.250.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.140.0868.4257.780.050.01
MichiganB100.000.0875.0070.270.000.03
MinnesotaB100.120.0863.6457.640.030.01
NorthwesternB100.120.0855.0050.370.010.00
RiderMAAC0.120.0865.0065.370.040.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0846.6758.78-0.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0650.0052.440.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.7831.670.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0626.3228.14-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.160.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0656.2556.810.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0645.0041.34-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.150.0643.7540.93-0.02-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0658.8262.830.010.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.450.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0630.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0617.6523.89-0.05-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0670.5969.610.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0673.6865.280.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0661.1156.830.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0647.3748.17-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.070.0673.6865.590.030.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0684.2178.170.050.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.0630.0033.49-0.06-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0647.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.130.0656.2557.400.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0627.7831.12-0.03-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0641.1838.460.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0638.8946.68-0.02-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0658.8258.360.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0633.3334.11-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.26-0.04-0.03
MontanaBSky0.130.0570.5973.140.050.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.070.0547.0644.91-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0577.7879.160.040.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0535.2935.57-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0540.0042.57-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0580.0075.050.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0589.4785.520.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0568.4254.090.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0570.0068.220.000.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0547.3742.18-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.690.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0550.0042.180.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.130.0543.7545.34-0.02-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0573.6871.550.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0572.2258.940.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.130.0570.5975.930.050.03
RutgersB100.000.0557.8947.140.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.070.0530.0031.69-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0533.3335.19-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0568.4261.270.000.01
BYUWCC0.060.0580.9576.230.040.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0536.8444.120.00-0.01
IndianaB100.130.0557.8950.680.020.00
IowaB100.060.0547.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0573.6862.720.030.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0573.6867.950.030.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0568.4260.530.000.01
NebraskaB100.060.0566.6759.780.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0568.4257.770.020.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0531.5835.150.00-0.02
PurdueB100.070.0590.4888.380.060.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0568.4263.980.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0538.8935.35-0.01-0.02
XavierBE0.060.0585.7180.080.040.03
MississippiSEC0.070.0552.6345.860.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.27-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.14-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0326.3231.52-0.04-0.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.880.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0330.0036.48-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.970.040.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.03-0.02-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.830.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0311.7612.810.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.04-0.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.870.020.00
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0320.0028.72-0.04-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.680.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.250.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.700.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0363.1666.880.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0326.6729.040.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.420.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.230.050.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.69-0.05-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0350.0055.650.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.750.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.900.000.01
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0360.0060.340.000.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.450.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0366.6773.240.020.01
OhioMAC0.000.0347.0648.440.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.810.010.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0361.1160.790.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0390.4888.940.000.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.190.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.900.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0364.7164.540.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0352.9452.230.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.510.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.070.039.5217.08-0.06-0.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.210.050.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0320.0032.26-0.04-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0323.5332.62-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0350.0054.850.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.160.000.00
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.890.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.030.0010.65-0.06-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0330.0032.53-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.400.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.920.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.550.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0350.0046.260.00-0.00