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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


La Salle

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:124.5
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:109
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-941.00.08%
21-1051.00.48%
20-1161.91.70%
19-1273.94.36%
18-1387.19.04%
17-14100.515.26%
16-15115.319.05%
15-16130.418.39%
14-17146.515.14%
13-18163.09.59%
12-19179.04.39%
11-20197.61.79%
10-21215.50.62%
9-22225.80.06%
8-23241.30.03%
7-24253.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Colgate (192.1)PatH57-52W100%0.0
11-18Quinnipiac (247.3)MAACA58-60W100%0.0
11-22Saint Peter's (225.7)MAACH59-50W100%0.0
11-25St. Francis NY (239.3)NECH73-60W100%0.0
11-28Virginia (7.1)ACCN64-56L0%0.0
11-29Vanderbilt (85.5)SECN55-68L0%0.0
12-3Villanova (16.8)BEH70-84L0%0.0
12-6Temple (119.2)AmerN58-57L0%0.0
12-13Drexel (224.2)CAAA55-65W100%0.0
12-16American (98.4)PatH66-68L0%0.0
12-20Towson (194.4)CAAA0-053%0.9
12-23Hofstra (70.8)CAAA0-018%-10.9
12-30Penn (276.5)IvyH0-085%12.3
1-3George Mason (224.4)A10A0-058%2.4
1-7Massachusetts (90.0)A10H0-059%2.7
1-10George Washington (74.0)A10H0-046%-1.3
1-14Dayton (73.0)A10A0-023%-8.6
1-17Fordham (261.7)A10H0-088%13.8
1-22Rhode Island (65.3)A10A0-015%-12.4
1-27Saint Joseph's (196.2)A10H0-081%10.5
1-31St. Bonaventure (104.3)A10A0-029%-6.5
2-5Richmond (92.2)A10H0-056%1.7
2-8Massachusetts (90.0)A10A0-030%-6.2
2-11VCU (27.3)A10A0-015%-12.4
2-14Davidson (31.0)A10H0-032%-5.6
2-18Duquesne (215.3)A10H0-078%9.2
2-22Saint Louis (272.2)A10A0-071%6.7
2-25Fordham (261.7)A10A0-066%4.8
2-28Rhode Island (65.3)A10H0-039%-3.4
3-4Saint Joseph's (196.2)A10A0-055%1.5
3-7Dayton (73.0)A10H0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
La SalleA1027.7626.1244.2348.56-3.20-0.75
Saint Joseph'sA100.813.9755.5640.420.09-0.76
FordhamA100.003.8828.5728.07-0.00-1.70
MassachusettsA100.003.8760.0055.040.000.39
Rhode IslandA100.003.8562.5072.720.001.75
DaytonA100.003.8177.7870.060.001.53
Saint LouisA100.002.3055.5631.730.00-0.84
St. BonaventureA100.002.2975.0064.430.000.66
VCUA100.532.2770.0070.640.210.94
George WashingtonA100.282.2466.6767.310.090.78
DuquesneA100.002.2433.3339.47-0.00-0.47
DavidsonA100.002.2487.5077.230.001.22
RichmondA100.002.2250.0056.590.000.29
George MasonA100.002.2225.0025.36-0.00-1.09
TempleAmer5.501.7855.5652.510.610.09
DrexelCAA5.001.7728.5738.68-2.14-0.40
TowsonCAA0.251.7566.6751.540.080.05
VillanovaBE5.251.75100.0081.685.251.11
PennIvy0.251.7537.5033.03-0.06-0.59
HofstraCAA0.001.7277.7877.390.000.94
VirginiaACC5.001.70100.0085.605.001.21
AmericanPat5.251.6955.5663.890.580.47
VanderbiltSEC5.001.6771.4359.182.140.31
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.001.6740.0049.19-1.00-0.03
ColgatePat5.001.6722.2244.00-2.78-0.20
QuinnipiacMAAC5.001.6642.8647.65-0.71-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC5.001.6128.5749.05-2.14-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2544.4456.62-0.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2525.0037.01-0.00-0.06
SienaMAAC0.310.2537.5051.38-0.080.01
DelawareCAA0.250.240.008.21-0.25-0.20
James MadisonCAA0.530.2466.6753.260.180.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.2475.0061.240.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2250.0045.540.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.2266.6772.270.000.10
Boston UniversityPat0.540.2233.3342.09-0.18-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1914.2932.16-0.16-0.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1940.0058.50-0.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.1910.0018.60-0.00-0.12
William & MaryCAA0.000.1957.1456.250.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1950.0061.890.000.04
BrownIvy0.480.1740.0034.21-0.10-0.05
CornellIvy0.560.1755.5648.540.06-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.250.1741.6743.24-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.1777.7851.200.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.250.1662.5064.640.060.05
ElonCAA0.000.1637.5048.77-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.1620.0021.16-0.00-0.09
ProvidenceBE0.000.1672.7352.480.000.01
LehighPat0.250.1642.8651.80-0.040.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.1633.3326.81-0.00-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1628.5741.09-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.250.1625.0040.22-0.13-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.1455.5654.360.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.1490.9154.340.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1433.3340.42-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.1485.7173.700.000.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1445.4551.71-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.1475.0069.750.000.05
RutgersB101.130.1360.0035.390.23-0.04
ArmyPat0.310.1377.7869.100.170.05
BucknellPat0.250.1340.0036.16-0.05-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1366.6741.850.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC1.130.1350.0056.650.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.1133.3343.17-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.310.1170.0064.560.120.03
PrincetonIvy0.230.1127.2737.98-0.10-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1187.5064.670.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.250.1142.8655.87-0.040.01
WagnerNEC0.000.1114.2933.61-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.310.1150.0060.040.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.310.1144.4440.58-0.03-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.1157.1452.850.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1122.2230.95-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC1.130.110.0017.65-1.13-0.07
Seton HallBE0.230.1188.8964.060.180.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1157.1456.000.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.310.1166.6759.740.100.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1180.0063.530.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0950.0032.740.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0944.4447.41-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.280.0890.9167.920.230.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0822.2236.43-0.15-0.02
KansasB120.000.0888.8969.900.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.250.080.0011.93-0.25-0.06
PittsburghACC0.000.0862.5053.840.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0833.3343.11-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.310.0836.3641.92-0.09-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0850.0030.140.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6755.560.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.340.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0866.6751.450.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0857.1447.630.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.0850.0057.760.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0877.7866.040.000.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0837.5037.71-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0866.6739.030.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0890.0079.360.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0887.5080.890.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6757.080.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0857.1445.530.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0037.860.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0844.4433.13-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.0877.7861.940.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0890.9171.250.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0875.0065.380.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0850.0048.280.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6742.930.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.450.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.310.0675.0069.770.160.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.940.000.02
CampbellBSth0.250.0614.2944.11-0.18-0.01
Miami FLACC0.310.0690.0075.840.250.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.650.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0037.020.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.560.0533.3348.50-0.19-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0510.0021.35-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.540.0550.0050.920.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0510.0040.34-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.02-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0575.0066.870.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0528.5746.92-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0544.4455.06-0.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0583.3366.520.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.780.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0562.5059.380.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0590.0091.020.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0520.0020.84-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0085.390.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0522.2227.10-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.250.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0550.0049.220.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0537.5048.43-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0014.53-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.250.05100.0087.520.250.04
IllinoisB100.500.0570.0066.410.200.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.500.0570.0066.510.200.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0537.5054.91-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0580.0072.430.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0566.6767.890.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.370.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5037.27-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0575.0070.980.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0555.5647.220.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6770.530.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0555.5657.230.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0580.0071.140.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0320.0026.45-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.310.0366.6757.220.100.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0050.98-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1129.36-0.00-0.01
USCP120.310.0360.0037.100.06-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0011.08-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0322.2227.64-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0311.1121.00-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.510.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7868.030.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0050.490.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.85-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0067.550.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00
Arizona St.P120.250.0360.0053.940.050.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0337.5032.05-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.310.0388.8975.070.240.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0033.87-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.65-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0051.980.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.250.0344.4449.79-0.03-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.460.000.02
LibertyBSth0.310.0328.5732.96-0.13-0.01
LipscombASun0.310.0325.0042.82-0.16-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.46-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0320.0047.17-0.15-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.42-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.250.0357.1464.630.040.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0022.93-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.250.0388.8984.020.190.02
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.009.06-0.25-0.02
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.400.140.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.06-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.900.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1454.620.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0050.220.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0328.5726.77-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.310.0322.2245.74-0.17-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.930.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0342.8633.13-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.440.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5055.430.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3358.570.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0320.0026.66-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0013.85-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0059.030.000.00
MichiganB100.250.0355.5642.720.03-0.00
OregonP120.000.0362.5057.800.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0371.4360.450.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0054.960.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.43-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
UNLVMWC0.250.0371.4350.790.110.00