La Salle

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	69.1
Current RPI:	78
Expected SOS:	123
Current SOS:	135
Current Record:	17-7
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	6-3
Expected Conf Record:	10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	10.57%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	11-4
Expected OOC Record:	11-4
Expected OOC RPI:	98
Expected OOC SOS:	240

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-7	38.3	3.18%
23-8	48.9	14.12%
22-9	60.2	28.12%
21-10	73.0	30.63%
20-11	86.8	17.81%
19-12	100.2	5.33%
18-13	112.3	0.78%
17-14	127.0	0.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Lafayette (210.2)	Pat	H	79-53	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Villanova (98.5)	BE	A	76-69	L	0%	0.0
11-19	James Madison (251.6)	CAA	H	92-83	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	73-69	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	44-51	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	82-70	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	68-51	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	78-52	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Towson (304.8)	CAA	A	51-89	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Army (293.1)	Pat	H	76-64	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Delaware (183.1)	CAA	A	70-66	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	59-85	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	70-53	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	73-55	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Xavier (55.8)	A10	H	80-70	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	H	82-75	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Pennsylvania (113.9)	Ivy	A	57-68	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Dayton (77.1)	A10	A	79-75	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Temple (24.4)	A10	A	76-70	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	H	80-66	W	100%	0.0
1-25	George Washington (196.4)	A10	H	78-63	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Duquesne (79.5)	A10	A	68-71	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	H	85-72	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	A	70-66	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Richmond (135.3)	A10	A	0-0		55%	1.5
2-11	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	H	0-0		42%	-2.3
2-18	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	A	0-0		46%	-1.0
2-22	Temple (24.4)	A10	H	0-0		56%	1.6
2-25	Fordham (243.2)	A10	A	0-0		89%	13.3
2-29	George Washington (196.4)	A10	A	0-0		74%	6.9
3-3	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	H	0-0		72%	6.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
La Salle	A10	26.08	26.00	72.83	70.31	11.91	10.56
Massachusetts	A10	2.44	3.74	77.27	71.57	1.33	1.61
Temple	A10	2.40	3.74	76.19	75.28	1.26	1.89
George Washington	A10	2.31	3.69	36.36	33.43	-0.63	-1.22
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.50	2.23	60.87	61.24	0.54	0.50
Rhode Island	A10	2.40	2.18	21.74	21.29	-1.35	-1.25
Richmond	A10	0.36	2.16	50.00	48.61	0.00	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	2.39	2.15	61.90	58.36	0.57	0.36
Fordham	A10	0.32	2.13	40.91	35.33	-0.06	-0.62
St. Louis	A10	0.42	2.13	77.27	78.36	0.23	1.21
Charlotte	A10	2.31	2.12	52.38	51.21	0.11	0.05
Dayton	A10	2.31	2.10	59.09	59.62	0.42	0.40
Xavier	A10	2.31	2.10	68.18	65.94	0.84	0.67
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.23	2.10	60.00	60.20	0.05	0.43
Delaware	CAA	2.44	1.91	45.45	48.89	-0.22	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.48	1.88	57.14	58.73	0.35	0.33
James Madison	CAA	2.40	1.88	41.67	41.52	-0.40	-0.32
Boston University	AE	2.40	1.83	50.00	53.61	0.00	0.13
Towson	CAA	2.22	1.83	4.17	5.43	-2.03	-1.63
Northeastern	CAA	2.30	1.83	50.00	50.29	0.00	0.01
Villanova	BE	2.31	1.83	42.86	44.22	-0.33	-0.21
Robert Morris	NEC	2.36	1.80	66.67	69.03	0.79	0.69
Lafayette	Pat	2.27	1.78	45.45	44.48	-0.21	-0.20
Bucknell	Pat	2.26	1.78	77.27	77.68	1.24	0.98
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.26	1.78	47.62	47.39	-0.11	-0.09
Army	Pat	2.27	1.75	42.86	43.26	-0.32	-0.24
Pittsburgh	BE	2.26	1.75	59.09	56.76	0.41	0.24
Rider	MAAC	2.26	1.72	39.13	39.80	-0.49	-0.35
Hartford	AE	2.17	1.69	18.18	21.71	-1.38	-0.96
George Mason	CAA	0.39	0.27	76.00	72.50	0.20	0.12
Drexel	CAA	0.35	0.27	79.17	78.10	0.20	0.15
American	Pat	0.23	0.25	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.35	0.24	32.00	35.39	-0.12	-0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.18	0.22	21.74	22.76	-0.10	-0.12
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.17	0.22	56.52	57.15	0.02	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.22	0.22	66.67	69.69	0.07	0.08
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.27	0.21	13.64	16.35	-0.19	-0.14
Old Dominion	CAA	0.30	0.21	60.00	58.29	0.06	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.22	0.21	80.00	78.06	0.13	0.12
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.20	30.43	29.50	-0.05	-0.08
Holy Cross	Pat	0.18	0.20	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.20	73.91	74.91	0.07	0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.22	0.19	0.00	4.02	-0.22	-0.18
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.23	0.19	44.00	45.89	-0.03	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.27	0.19	28.00	28.91	-0.12	-0.08
Vermont	AE	0.26	0.19	60.00	62.49	0.05	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.13	0.19	77.27	73.45	0.07	0.09
William & Mary	CAA	0.22	0.19	12.50	13.44	-0.16	-0.14
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.19	90.48	87.91	0.11	0.14
Navy	Pat	0.18	0.17	9.52	13.19	-0.15	-0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.23	0.16	82.61	84.57	0.15	0.11
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.16	72.22	63.19	0.10	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.18	0.16	36.84	41.45	-0.05	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.27	0.16	34.78	33.43	-0.08	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.16	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.22	0.16	39.13	36.10	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.18	0.16	95.83	92.01	0.17	0.14
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.16	66.67	68.05	0.06	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.16	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.18	0.16	60.00	60.42	0.04	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.18	0.14	8.33	10.86	-0.15	-0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.14	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.13	27.27	23.80	-0.08	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.13	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.13	0.13	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.13	0.13	35.00	38.58	-0.04	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.14	0.13	76.19	76.76	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	30.43	26.44	-0.05	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.18	0.13	68.00	69.07	0.06	0.05
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.11	26.09	28.60	-0.06	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.18	0.11	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.14	0.11	33.33	38.38	-0.05	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.11	68.42	66.45	0.03	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.11	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.11	14.29	17.17	-0.07	-0.07
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.18	0.11	8.70	12.13	-0.15	-0.08
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.11	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.11	81.82	80.43	0.08	0.07
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.11	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.11	21.74	24.58	-0.07	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.11	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.13	0.11	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.10	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.06
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.08	70.83	71.05	0.06	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.08	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.08	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.08	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	35.29	39.85	-0.03	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.08	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.08	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.08	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.08	69.57	71.51	0.05	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.08	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.08	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.08	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.08	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.08	79.17	75.98	0.08	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.08	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.04
Providence	BE	0.09	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.08	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.05	9.52	11.44	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.05	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.05	71.43	66.60	0.04	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.05	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.05	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.05	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.05	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.05	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.05	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.05	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	25.00	37.58	-0.04	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.05	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.00	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.00	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.00	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.00	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.00	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.03	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.04	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.04	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.04	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.02	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.04	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.00	0.03	27.27	27.21	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.04	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.04	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00