live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


La Salle

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:246
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:54
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:1-9
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-4
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17169.50.02%
10-18182.00.02%
9-19202.20.60%
8-20220.74.84%
7-21238.117.64%
6-22255.434.06%
5-23270.131.36%
4-24282.511.45%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Towson (153.8)CAAH78-76W100%0.0
11-17Rider (219.5)MAACH73-60W100%0.0
11-23Lafayette (312.8)PatH83-75W100%0.0
11-25Penn (276.2)IvyA80-64L0%0.0
12-2Hofstra (71.2)CAAH80-84L0%0.0
12-5Drexel (265.5)CAAH53-66L0%0.0
12-13Villanova (3.7)BEA76-47L0%0.0
12-22Miami FL (14.2)ACCH49-95L0%0.0
12-31Florida Gulf Coast (215.1)ASunA86-77L0%0.0
1-3Massachusetts (194.9)A10H67-74L0%0.0
1-6Fordham (187.5)A10A66-61L0%0.0
1-9Dayton (13.2)A10H61-57W100%0.0
1-13Richmond (108.9)A10A83-61L0%0.0
1-16Rhode Island (100.9)A10A73-62L0%0.0
1-20Temple (85.5)AmerN49-62L0%0.0
1-24Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10H48-69L0%0.0
1-26Duquesne (113.9)A10A87-60L0%0.0
1-30Dayton (13.2)A10A59-44L0%0.0
2-3VCU (37.0)A10H70-88L0%0.0
2-6Rhode Island (100.9)A10H62-79L0%0.0
2-10Davidson (71.2)A10A0-08%-15.7
2-13Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10A0-03%-20.6
2-17St. Bonaventure (49.8)A10H0-015%-11.3
2-21George Washington (45.1)A10A0-03%-19.9
2-24Fordham (187.5)A10H0-033%-4.8
2-27George Mason (183.5)A10H0-043%-1.9
3-2Saint Louis (200.1)A10H0-050%0.0
3-5Massachusetts (194.9)A10A0-018%-9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
La SalleA1026.3626.1413.3314.71-19.33-18.45
Saint Joseph'sA103.254.3981.8277.512.072.41
Rhode IslandA105.344.3252.3853.620.250.31
MassachusettsA102.964.2938.1035.63-0.70-1.23
FordhamA103.004.2552.6349.890.16-0.01
DaytonA105.184.2090.0084.664.142.91
St. BonaventureA100.562.5670.0068.530.220.95
George MasonA100.522.5134.7833.45-0.16-0.83
RichmondA102.842.4752.3852.980.140.15
George WashingtonA100.572.4778.2673.610.321.17
DuquesneA102.672.4761.9054.860.640.24
Saint LouisA100.452.4738.1032.83-0.11-0.85
VCUA102.732.4472.7373.041.241.13
DavidsonA100.402.4460.0056.670.080.33
DrexelCAA2.852.009.5215.11-2.30-1.40
PennIvy2.781.9935.2935.27-0.82-0.59
HofstraCAA2.671.9466.6764.050.890.55
TowsonCAA2.671.9468.1861.890.970.46
VillanovaBE2.621.9186.3685.911.911.37
TempleAmer2.621.9161.9058.420.620.32
LafayettePat2.571.8523.8124.93-1.35-0.93
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.561.8545.0050.15-0.260.01
RiderMAAC2.611.8443.4844.98-0.34-0.19
Miami FLACC2.501.7980.0074.651.500.88
College of CharlestonCAA0.340.2563.6460.930.090.05
William & MaryCAA0.280.2571.4369.840.120.10
DelawareCAA0.280.2521.7423.31-0.16-0.13
James MadisonCAA0.280.2569.5768.500.110.09
NortheasternCAA0.170.2245.8346.65-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.290.2172.2274.710.130.11
ProvidenceBE0.330.2075.0070.940.160.09
ElonCAA0.220.1952.1750.430.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1976.1973.380.120.09
North FloridaASun0.290.1965.2267.130.090.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.280.1950.0051.910.000.01
UCFAmer0.110.1852.3845.670.01-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.270.1756.5262.780.040.04
ColgatePat0.120.1645.4546.10-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.230.1565.2266.080.070.05
AmericanPat0.220.1530.4331.88-0.09-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1545.0043.21-0.01-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.170.1579.1780.780.100.09
IonaMAAC0.270.1559.0959.660.050.03
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1525.0025.47-0.05-0.07
VirginiaACC0.110.1582.6178.050.070.08
HarvardIvy0.130.1335.0038.53-0.04-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.170.1334.7837.18-0.05-0.03
BrownIvy0.180.1231.5831.01-0.07-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.050.1266.6765.220.020.04
Boston UniversityPat0.170.1254.1755.580.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1247.8348.91-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.170.1239.1338.32-0.04-0.03
St. John'sBE0.120.1226.0923.73-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1241.6743.87-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.110.1266.6767.270.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.170.1269.5764.880.070.04
MississippiSEC0.110.1265.2259.020.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1238.1041.91-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1259.0958.900.020.02
ButlerBE0.170.1269.5767.220.070.04
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1270.8370.930.070.05
CreightonBE0.170.1262.5059.780.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.1254.5552.810.020.01
HoustonAmer0.170.1272.7368.020.080.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.1254.1749.290.00-0.00
XavierBE0.170.1291.3084.380.140.08
NebraskaB100.220.1254.1751.820.020.00
NJITASun0.120.1054.1755.260.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.1023.8127.69-0.06-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.1042.1140.20-0.01-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1013.0413.54-0.10-0.07
NavyPat0.130.1062.5062.440.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.0915.0022.35-0.08-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.120.0930.4326.49-0.05-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.0934.7837.06-0.05-0.02
ArmyPat0.110.0952.1753.360.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0982.6178.690.040.05
PittsburghACC0.060.0976.1968.220.030.03
Penn St.B100.110.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.120.0960.8760.210.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0927.7834.49-0.05-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0920.8320.12-0.03-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.0921.7422.74-0.09-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.0934.7834.45-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.160.0987.5083.690.120.06
Seton HallBE0.110.0973.9169.840.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.0750.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0721.7423.40-0.03-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0725.0029.27-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0722.7323.25-0.03-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.070.0731.5831.77-0.03-0.02
YaleIvy0.070.0773.6874.620.030.03
OhioMAC0.060.0761.9059.420.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0621.7424.68-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.060.0654.5558.150.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0634.7834.00-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0666.6770.540.020.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.069.5213.53-0.10-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.0628.0030.73-0.06-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0686.3679.150.080.04
CaliforniaP120.060.0665.2262.900.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0650.0052.340.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.5043.36-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0672.7370.750.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0652.1751.940.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0650.0053.300.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.570.020.02
UMBCAE0.110.0624.0026.41-0.06-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0620.0026.76-0.06-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.0659.0953.030.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.110.0652.1755.930.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0621.0527.81-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0686.3685.030.080.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0672.7372.450.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0645.4542.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.110.0652.1753.310.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0638.1040.73-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.110.0681.8280.120.070.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0682.6177.730.000.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0660.8760.800.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.110.0631.8230.48-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0613.6415.80-0.08-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0663.6459.960.020.01
UtahP120.120.0672.7368.540.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0656.5260.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.0643.4840.60-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0669.5765.850.020.02
DukeACC0.110.0673.9170.060.050.02
HartfordAE0.050.0626.0926.50-0.02-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0654.1755.090.000.01
WisconsinB100.110.0660.8755.860.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0652.1753.070.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0638.1037.49-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.110.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0681.8283.030.070.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0619.0521.34-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0352.3847.050.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0371.4368.720.030.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0341.6741.24-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0377.2776.850.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0378.2678.040.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.070.0365.2261.080.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0352.3854.010.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.470.010.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3337.25-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0331.8229.14-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0365.2266.160.020.01
USCP120.060.0378.2673.060.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5731.37-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0326.0929.20-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0322.7327.18-0.03-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0380.9582.700.040.02
VermontAE0.000.0354.1757.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0338.8945.64-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.8758.450.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.750.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0359.0959.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.82-0.03-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.14-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.100.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0356.5257.280.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0317.3920.65-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0390.4885.570.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0372.0070.500.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0359.0953.130.010.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0333.3332.33-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0314.2915.47-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0382.6179.550.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0345.4546.29-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0372.7376.350.000.02
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.040.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.440.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0352.6350.230.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.11-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.290.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0321.7420.35-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.8346.87-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0356.5257.000.000.00