live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


La Salle

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:98.0
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:44
Current SOS:44
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:68



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1698.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Manhattan (60.0)MAACH90-99L0%0.0
11-12Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACH73-67W100%0.0
11-16Siena (193.0)MAACH78-74W100%0.0
11-19Penn St. (114.0)B10A79-72L0%0.0
11-22Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN78-59W100%0.0
11-24Providence (40.0)BEN63-71L0%0.0
11-25Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCN50-65L0%0.0
12-4Hartford (234.0)AEH75-62W100%0.0
12-7Stony Brook (165.0)AEN65-57W100%0.0
12-15Villanova (5.0)BEA73-52L0%0.0
12-19Wagner (218.0)NECH80-54W100%0.0
12-22Miami FL (110.0)ACCA71-58L0%0.0
1-4Penn (284.0)IvyA57-76W100%0.0
1-9George Washington (29.0)A10H76-72W100%0.0
1-12Duquesne (187.0)A10A56-75W100%0.0
1-15Rhode Island (155.0)A10H72-62W100%0.0
1-18Temple (175.0)AmerH74-68W100%0.0
1-22St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A66-51L0%0.0
1-25VCU (13.0)A10H89-97L0%0.0
1-29George Washington (29.0)A10A69-47L0%0.0
2-1Duquesne (187.0)A10H71-63W100%0.0
2-5Massachusetts (23.0)A10A79-67L0%0.0
2-8Saint Louis (27.0)A10H63-65L0%0.0
2-15Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H64-75L0%0.0
2-19Dayton (43.0)A10A65-53L0%0.0
2-22Richmond (75.0)A10A62-49L0%0.0
2-26St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10H75-67W100%0.0
3-1Fordham (226.0)A10A62-64W100%0.0
3-6George Mason (164.0)A10H57-59L0%0.0
3-9Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A63-71W100%0.0
3-13St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10N72-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
La SalleA1026.1026.1046.7646.76-1.69-1.69
St. BonaventureA105.435.4351.7251.720.190.19
Saint Joseph'sA103.913.9174.1974.191.891.89
George WashingtonA103.783.7876.6776.672.022.02
DuquesneA103.783.7844.4444.44-0.42-0.42
VCUA102.322.3275.7675.761.201.20
MassachusettsA102.302.3074.1974.191.111.11
George MasonA102.282.2833.3333.33-0.76-0.76
RichmondA102.252.2556.2556.250.280.28
FordhamA102.242.2433.3333.33-0.75-0.75
Saint LouisA102.222.2280.0080.001.331.33
DaytonA102.222.2268.7568.750.830.83
Rhode IslandA102.222.2243.3343.33-0.30-0.30
SienaMAAC1.871.8748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ManhattanMAAC1.821.8277.4277.421.001.00
PennIvy1.791.7929.6329.63-0.73-0.73
VillanovaBE1.761.7687.1087.101.311.31
QuinnipiacMAAC1.761.7666.6766.670.590.59
WagnerNEC1.741.7462.0762.070.420.42
Penn St.B101.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
TempleAmer1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
HartfordAE1.711.7153.1253.120.110.11
ProvidenceBE1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
Stony BrookAE1.711.7170.9770.970.720.72
Miami FLACC1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.330.3368.7568.750.120.12
MaristMAAC0.310.3138.7138.71-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.280.2821.2121.21-0.16-0.16
MonmouthMAAC0.260.2634.3834.38-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
MaineAE0.250.2517.8617.86-0.16-0.16
VermontAE0.250.2566.6766.670.080.08
RiderMAAC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2321.8821.88-0.13-0.13
CreightonBE0.220.2278.7978.790.130.13
UMBCAE0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.17-0.17
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
BinghamtonAE0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
MarylandACC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
DelawareCAA0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
IPFWSum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00