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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


La Salle

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:90.1
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:25
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:71
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-49.00.01%
24-514.00.02%
23-621.50.15%
22-728.80.50%
21-835.31.75%
20-943.84.58%
19-1053.18.97%
18-1165.314.71%
17-1279.318.28%
16-1393.818.19%
15-14109.814.80%
14-15127.29.62%
13-16144.15.46%
12-17164.02.11%
11-18182.10.64%
10-19204.70.17%
9-20217.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Temple (51.5)AmerA97-92L0%0.0
11-15Delaware (225.1)CAAH74-68W100%0.0
11-19Texas Southern (105.6)SWACH76-77L0%0.0
11-27Drexel (217.5)CAAA78-89W100%0.0
11-30Lehigh (107.9)PatH89-81W100%0.0
12-3Bucknell (94.2)PatH83-73W100%0.0
12-6Villanova (5.1)BEN79-89L0%0.0
12-10Georgetown (97.5)BEN0-038%-3.8
12-17Florida Gulf Coast (87.6)ASunH0-062%3.6
12-22Mercer (185.3)SCA0-062%3.8
12-30Dayton (38.8)A10A0-019%-10.4
1-4Saint Louis (286.5)A10H0-092%16.7
1-7Duquesne (244.3)A10H0-082%11.2
1-12Rhode Island (34.2)A10A0-021%-9.6
1-15George Washington (187.8)A10H0-076%8.7
1-19Davidson (68.7)A10H0-051%0.3
1-22VCU (43.9)A10A0-024%-8.5
1-25Penn (143.8)IvyH0-068%5.8
1-28Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10A0-048%-0.5
2-1Massachusetts (109.7)A10H0-064%4.3
2-4George Mason (191.5)A10A0-061%3.4
2-8Fordham (219.4)A10A0-060%3.2
2-11Richmond (173.6)A10H0-070%6.2
2-15St. Bonaventure (60.5)A10A0-029%-6.5
2-18Saint Joseph's (126.8)A10H0-068%5.7
2-21Rhode Island (34.2)A10H0-039%-3.3
2-26Massachusetts (109.7)A10A0-043%-2.0
3-1Saint Louis (286.5)A10A0-081%10.4
3-4Fordham (219.4)A10H0-078%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
La SalleA1028.1326.1251.6154.950.912.58
Saint Joseph'sA100.844.2242.8645.60-0.12-0.37
MassachusettsA100.454.1171.4358.990.190.74
Rhode IslandA100.004.0866.6770.440.001.67
FordhamA100.004.0550.0042.430.00-0.61
Saint LouisA100.004.0225.0024.70-0.00-2.03
George MasonA100.002.4762.5046.750.00-0.16
DavidsonA100.002.4471.4363.490.000.66
St. BonaventureA100.002.4375.0070.340.000.99
DuquesneA100.002.4140.0039.91-0.00-0.49
RichmondA100.362.4150.0049.130.00-0.04
DaytonA100.002.4071.4373.010.001.11
George WashingtonA100.002.3855.5642.770.00-0.34
VCUA100.002.3575.0072.820.001.07
TempleAmer7.141.9271.4363.643.060.53
VillanovaBE7.141.90100.0084.237.141.30
PennIvy0.841.8933.3357.62-0.280.29
DrexelCAA7.141.8757.1442.891.02-0.27
BucknellPat7.141.8177.7872.883.970.83
MercerSC0.001.7842.8648.03-0.00-0.07
DelawareCAA7.141.7860.0043.191.43-0.24
GeorgetownBE0.001.7855.5647.110.00-0.10
LehighPat7.141.7842.8664.10-1.020.50
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.7257.1472.440.000.77
Texas SouthernSWAC7.141.7242.8665.26-1.020.53
LafayettePat0.840.2642.8635.40-0.12-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.000.2337.5047.44-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.2277.7859.940.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.450.2120.0060.00-0.270.04
HarvardIvy0.000.2033.3349.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.450.2012.5030.17-0.33-0.08
UCFAmer0.400.2085.7175.800.280.10
St. John'sBE0.000.2044.4436.20-0.00-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.400.1766.6761.690.130.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1733.3346.06-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.450.1542.8663.63-0.060.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1525.0030.02-0.00-0.06
NavyPat0.000.1533.3338.56-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.800.1530.0045.49-0.32-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3379.920.000.09
ArmyPat0.000.1542.8650.29-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1555.5643.870.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1542.8653.80-0.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1583.3377.290.000.08
AmericanPat0.000.1512.5028.64-0.00-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1512.5030.11-0.00-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.000.1542.8645.85-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.1462.5054.660.000.01
XavierBE0.450.1487.5070.880.330.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1457.1450.790.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.1475.0054.480.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1487.5082.440.000.09
ButlerBE0.360.14100.0074.830.360.07
DePaulBE0.000.1471.4337.680.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.1250.0043.770.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1242.8643.78-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.1211.1132.47-0.00-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0020.72-0.00-0.07
VMISC0.000.120.0016.56-0.00-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1228.5727.38-0.00-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.450.1262.5067.590.110.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1242.8655.07-0.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.1244.4443.25-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1233.3350.05-0.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.1262.5056.520.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1175.0075.180.000.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1162.5066.500.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1157.1433.200.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.800.1122.2232.01-0.45-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0047.990.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.540.000.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1177.7864.250.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0020.63-0.00-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0942.8643.55-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0962.5060.090.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0944.4451.58-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0944.4441.55-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0977.7872.930.000.04
BaylorB120.000.09100.0076.070.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0911.1149.12-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3340.37-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0971.4355.570.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0944.4434.60-0.00-0.03
RutgersB100.450.0987.5050.250.330.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.740.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0970.0050.010.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0950.0071.340.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0866.6746.170.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.750.0877.7855.180.420.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0812.5033.18-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.90-0.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0842.8644.90-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0814.2943.08-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.450.0857.1449.420.06-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0625.0026.46-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.360.0662.5055.890.090.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0677.7866.740.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.600.0633.3336.67-0.20-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0675.0066.120.220.02
BradleyMVC0.600.0637.5025.74-0.15-0.03
HartfordAE0.450.0622.2226.44-0.25-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC1.040.0612.5037.11-0.78-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.360.0655.5646.770.04-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0657.1464.500.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.99-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.450.0625.0035.75-0.22-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0644.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.860.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.42-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.190.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0050.170.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1449.640.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.450.0688.8967.470.350.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0061.350.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0688.8956.710.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4347.690.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0056.270.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8645.98-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.770.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0025.31-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.82-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0620.0035.15-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0628.5752.65-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0328.5738.92-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0360.0058.780.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0375.0047.520.22-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.450.0337.5043.19-0.11-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.600.0337.5028.47-0.15-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.600.0357.1453.860.090.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0357.1450.730.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.49-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.450.0337.5044.87-0.11-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.450.0377.7872.210.250.01
North TexasCUSA0.450.0333.3331.35-0.15-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.49-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.51-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5737.54-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
ArizonaP120.450.0377.7870.290.250.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.07-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.450.0371.4363.080.190.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.690.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.54-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0387.5075.730.000.01
New HampshireAE0.450.0362.5062.120.110.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.360.030.0036.38-0.36-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.360.0316.6740.32-0.24-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.010.000.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0048.980.00-0.00
PurdueB100.400.0377.7877.640.220.02
RiceCUSA0.450.0375.0070.570.220.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0060.950.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.840.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
West VirginiaB120.450.0385.7183.250.320.02
Western MichiganMAC0.400.0316.6735.90-0.26-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.01