live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


La Salle

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:69.1
Current RPI:78
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:135
Current Record:17-7
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Probability of Auto Bid:10.57%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC Record:11-4
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:240



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-738.33.18%
23-848.914.12%
22-960.228.12%
21-1073.030.63%
20-1186.817.81%
19-12100.25.33%
18-13112.30.78%
17-14127.00.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Lafayette (210.2)PatH79-53W100%0.0
11-15Villanova (98.5)BEA76-69L0%0.0
11-19James Madison (251.6)CAAH92-83W100%0.0
11-22Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA73-69L0%0.0
11-25Robert Morris (111.2)NECH44-51L0%0.0
11-26Rider (213.8)MAACH82-70W100%0.0
11-30Northeastern (164.6)CAAH68-51W100%0.0
12-3Bucknell (71.1)PatH78-52W100%0.0
12-7Towson (304.8)CAAA51-89W100%0.0
12-10Army (293.1)PatH76-64W100%0.0
12-19Delaware (183.1)CAAA70-66L0%0.0
12-22Central Connecticut (236.3)NECA59-85W100%0.0
12-29Boston University (175.2)AEH70-53W100%0.0
12-31Hartford (328.5)AEH73-55W100%0.0
1-4Xavier (55.8)A10H80-70W100%0.0
1-8Massachusetts (76.4)A10H82-75W100%0.0
1-10Pennsylvania (113.9)IvyA57-68W100%0.0
1-14Dayton (77.1)A10A79-75L0%0.0
1-18Temple (24.4)A10A76-70L0%0.0
1-21Rhode Island (250.6)A10H80-66W100%0.0
1-25George Washington (196.4)A10H78-63W100%0.0
1-28Duquesne (79.5)A10A68-71W100%0.0
2-1Charlotte (140.3)A10H85-72W100%0.0
2-4Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10A70-66L0%0.0
2-8Richmond (135.3)A10A0-055%1.5
2-11St. Louis (32.0)A10H0-042%-2.3
2-18Massachusetts (76.4)A10A0-046%-1.0
2-22Temple (24.4)A10H0-056%1.6
2-25Fordham (243.2)A10A0-089%13.3
2-29George Washington (196.4)A10A0-074%6.9
3-3St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H0-072%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
La SalleA1026.0826.0072.8370.3111.9110.56
MassachusettsA102.443.7477.2771.571.331.61
TempleA102.403.7476.1975.281.261.89
George WashingtonA102.313.6936.3633.43-0.63-1.22
Saint Joseph'sA102.502.2360.8761.240.540.50
Rhode IslandA102.402.1821.7421.29-1.35-1.25
RichmondA100.362.1650.0048.610.00-0.06
DuquesneA102.392.1561.9058.360.570.36
FordhamA100.322.1340.9135.33-0.06-0.62
St. LouisA100.422.1377.2778.360.231.21
CharlotteA102.312.1252.3851.210.110.05
DaytonA102.312.1059.0959.620.420.40
XavierA102.312.1068.1865.940.840.67
St. BonaventureA100.232.1060.0060.200.050.43
DelawareCAA2.441.9145.4548.89-0.22-0.04
PennsylvaniaIvy2.481.8857.1458.730.350.33
James MadisonCAA2.401.8841.6741.52-0.40-0.32
Boston UniversityAE2.401.8350.0053.610.000.13
TowsonCAA2.221.834.175.43-2.03-1.63
NortheasternCAA2.301.8350.0050.290.000.01
VillanovaBE2.311.8342.8644.22-0.33-0.21
Robert MorrisNEC2.361.8066.6769.030.790.69
LafayettePat2.271.7845.4544.48-0.21-0.20
BucknellPat2.261.7877.2777.681.240.98
Central ConnecticutNEC2.261.7847.6247.39-0.11-0.09
ArmyPat2.271.7542.8643.26-0.32-0.24
PittsburghBE2.261.7559.0956.760.410.24
RiderMAAC2.261.7239.1339.80-0.49-0.35
HartfordAE2.171.6918.1821.71-1.38-0.96
George MasonCAA0.390.2776.0072.500.200.12
DrexelCAA0.350.2779.1778.100.200.15
AmericanPat0.230.2565.2263.790.070.07
HofstraCAA0.350.2432.0035.39-0.12-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.180.2221.7422.76-0.10-0.12
QuinnipiacNEC0.170.2256.5257.150.020.03
Georgia St.CAA0.220.2266.6769.690.070.08
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.270.2113.6416.35-0.19-0.14
Old DominionCAA0.300.2160.0058.290.060.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.220.2180.0078.060.130.12
ColgatePat0.140.2030.4329.50-0.05-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.180.2040.9142.05-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.140.2073.9174.910.070.10
BinghamtonAE0.220.190.004.02-0.22-0.18
Sacred HeartNEC0.230.1944.0045.89-0.03-0.02
MonmouthNEC0.270.1928.0028.91-0.12-0.08
VermontAE0.260.1960.0062.490.050.05
Loyola MDMAAC0.130.1977.2773.450.070.09
William & MaryCAA0.220.1912.5013.44-0.16-0.14
HarvardIvy0.130.1990.4887.910.110.14
NavyPat0.180.179.5213.19-0.15-0.12
WagnerNEC0.230.1682.6184.570.150.11
YaleIvy0.230.1672.2263.190.100.04
CornellIvy0.180.1636.8441.45-0.05-0.03
MaristMAAC0.270.1634.7833.43-0.08-0.05
SienaMAAC0.130.1645.4545.55-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1639.1336.10-0.05-0.05
SyracuseBE0.180.1695.8392.010.170.14
Stony BrookAE0.170.1666.6768.050.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.230.1647.3752.87-0.010.01
AlbanyAE0.180.1660.0060.420.040.03
BryantNEC0.180.148.3310.86-0.15-0.11
NiagaraMAAC0.090.1437.5041.54-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1447.6248.82-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.180.1327.2723.80-0.08-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.080.1336.3638.48-0.02-0.03
MaineAE0.130.1350.0049.730.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.130.1335.0038.58-0.04-0.03
DavidsonSC0.140.1376.1976.760.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1330.4326.44-0.05-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1368.0069.070.060.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1126.0928.60-0.06-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1156.5255.950.020.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.140.1133.3338.38-0.05-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.1168.4266.450.030.04
Penn St.B100.180.1141.6738.67-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.1114.2917.17-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.118.7012.13-0.15-0.08
St. John'sBE0.090.1143.4840.28-0.01-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1117.3919.81-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1181.8280.430.080.07
CincinnatiBE0.140.1169.5765.470.050.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.130.1121.7424.58-0.07-0.05
Seton HallBE0.140.1165.2263.740.040.03
South FloridaBE0.050.1154.5548.600.00-0.00
TexasB120.130.1160.8761.370.030.02
IonaMAAC0.090.1079.1780.100.050.06
Long IslandNEC0.130.0870.8371.050.060.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0834.7832.06-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0869.5765.870.050.03
BradleyMVC0.090.0824.0024.86-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0828.5734.20-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0835.2939.85-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0844.4441.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.090.0865.0060.020.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0840.9142.96-0.02-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.130.0869.5771.510.050.03
PurdueB100.090.0865.2260.580.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0855.0054.800.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0842.1149.81-0.02-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0847.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.090.0886.3683.090.070.05
MarquetteBE0.140.0879.1775.980.080.04
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.5554.300.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.090.0878.2672.660.050.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.0856.5250.270.010.00
RutgersBE0.050.0850.0046.810.00-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.090.0865.2265.170.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0637.5038.33-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0670.8364.420.020.02
RadfordBSth0.090.068.7013.10-0.08-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7364.430.000.02
The CitadelSC0.090.059.5211.44-0.07-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.040.0556.5255.200.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0569.5761.310.040.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.090.0571.4366.600.040.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.0552.3852.860.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0539.1342.12-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.090.0518.1822.22-0.06-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0554.1754.750.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0533.3335.97-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0575.0074.610.020.03
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0558.3359.980.010.01
ElonSC0.050.0550.0047.590.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7371.710.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0572.7368.280.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0559.0950.820.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0520.0019.96-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0530.0034.15-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0547.6246.46-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0538.1040.81-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0540.9139.82-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0518.1815.01-0.03-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0582.6180.420.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.000.0568.1863.990.000.01
DePaulBE0.090.0550.0042.830.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.9577.380.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0571.4373.350.040.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0525.0037.58-0.04-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0565.2262.650.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.040.0534.7833.46-0.01-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.020.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0361.9055.140.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0037.30-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.52-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.000.0319.0521.29-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0359.0957.760.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0381.8281.030.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0359.0954.700.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0321.7421.70-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0356.5253.100.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0331.8242.13-0.00-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.000.0322.2227.62-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.000.0369.5766.540.000.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0368.1869.100.020.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0335.0035.31-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0363.6456.710.010.00
MissouriB120.050.0391.3087.180.040.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
BelmontASun0.040.0369.5773.280.020.01
CreightonMVC0.040.0387.5085.410.030.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.6177.630.030.01
KansasB120.040.0378.2678.390.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0371.4369.050.020.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0327.2727.21-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.040.0372.7366.810.020.01
NebraskaB100.040.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.040.0381.8277.200.030.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.040.0363.6463.160.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.040.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.040.0360.8759.050.010.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0381.8276.800.030.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0345.0044.15-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.040.0334.7834.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0350.0051.530.000.00