La Salle

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	46.0
Current RPI:	46
Expected SOS:	77
Current SOS:	77
Current Record:	21-9
Expected Record:	21-9
Current Conf Record:	11-6
Expected Conf Record:	11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	40
Expected OOC SOS:	100

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-9	46.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for La Salle.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	73-66	W	100%
11-18	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	74-81	L	0%
11-20	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	51-64	W	100%
11-25	Villanova (52.0)	BE	H	77-74	W	100%
11-29	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	52-63	W	100%
12-5	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	H	82-57	W	100%
12-8	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	64-66	W	100%
12-15	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	A	74-66	L	0%
12-20	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	88-74	W	100%
12-22	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	100-71	W	100%
12-29	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	52-80	W	100%
1-2	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	76-59	L	0%
1-5	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	74-57	W	100%
1-9	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	74-65	L	0%
1-12	Richmond (92.0)	A10	H	71-59	W	100%
1-16	Dayton (114.0)	A10	H	72-70	W	100%
1-19	Xavier (87.0)	A10	A	70-63	L	0%
1-23	Butler (22.0)	A10	H	54-53	W	100%
1-26	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	61-69	W	100%
1-30	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	H	60-61	L	0%
2-2	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	71-80	W	100%
2-9	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	89-53	W	100%
2-13	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	A	66-69	W	100%
2-16	Saint Joseph's (82.0)	A10	H	76-64	W	100%
2-21	Temple (42.0)	A10	A	82-74	L	0%
2-24	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	65-72	W	100%
3-2	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	H	97-64	W	100%
3-6	George Washington (147.0)	A10	H	84-70	W	100%
3-9	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	78-54	L	0%
3-15	Butler (22.0)	A10	N	58-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

La Salle's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

La Salle's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against La Salle.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
La Salle	A10	25.90	25.90	71.97	71.97	11.38	11.38
Butler	A10	3.87	3.87	77.42	77.42	2.12	2.12
George Washington	A10	3.79	3.79	46.43	46.43	-0.27	-0.27
Massachusetts	A10	2.31	2.31	64.52	64.52	0.67	0.67
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.25	2.25	60.00	60.00	0.45	0.45
St. Louis	A10	2.25	2.25	81.25	81.25	1.40	1.40
Temple	A10	2.22	2.22	70.97	70.97	0.93	0.93
Charlotte	A10	2.22	2.22	64.52	64.52	0.65	0.65
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	2.20	2.20	78.79	78.79	1.27	1.27
Xavier	A10	2.20	2.20	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
Fordham	A10	2.17	2.17	23.33	23.33	-1.16	-1.16
Dayton	A10	2.17	2.17	56.67	56.67	0.29	0.29
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.17	2.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	2.15	2.15	27.59	27.59	-0.96	-0.96
Richmond	A10	2.14	2.14	58.06	58.06	0.35	0.35
Rhode Island	A10	2.12	2.12	28.57	28.57	-0.91	-0.91
Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.90	1.90	30.00	30.00	-0.76	-0.76
Siena	MAAC	1.85	1.85	25.81	25.81	-0.90	-0.90
Delaware	CAA	1.85	1.85	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Iona	MAAC	1.83	1.83	62.50	62.50	0.46	0.46
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.81	1.81	32.14	32.14	-0.64	-0.64
Northeastern	CAA	1.80	1.80	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Rider	MAAC	1.79	1.79	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.78	1.78	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Villanova	BE	1.77	1.77	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Penn St.	B10	1.75	1.75	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Hartford	AE	1.72	1.72	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Miami FL	ACC	1.72	1.72	81.25	81.25	1.07	1.07
Bucknell	Pat	1.69	1.69	83.87	83.87	1.15	1.15
Manhattan	MAAC	0.29	0.29	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.29	0.29	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.29	0.29	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.24	0.24	58.82	58.82	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.23	0.23	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.23	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.22	0.22	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	19.35	19.35	-0.11	-0.11
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.16	0.16	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.14	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.14	0.14	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.14	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.14	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.08	0.08	18.18	18.18	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01