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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:269
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:91
Expected OOC SOS:21



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Virginia (7.0)ACCA67-39L0%0.0
11-19Boston University (198.0)PatH63-71L0%0.0
11-22Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH76-66W100%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA63-53L0%0.0
11-28St. Francis NY (170.0)NECN70-72W100%0.0
11-29Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACA58-60W100%0.0
12-2Hofstra (174.0)CAAA88-74L0%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH85-65W100%0.0
12-8Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH88-69W100%0.0
12-13Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA67-64L0%0.0
12-19Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyH81-62W100%0.0
12-22James Madison (148.0)CAAA71-74W100%0.0
12-30Baylor (10.0)B12A92-51L0%0.0
1-3Georgia (38.0)SECA63-50L0%0.0
1-6Princeton (191.0)IvyA71-61L0%0.0
1-10Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA51-75W100%0.0
1-12Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA55-79W100%0.0
1-17North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH56-60L0%0.0
1-19North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH74-60W100%0.0
1-24South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA63-76W100%0.0
1-26Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA54-70W100%0.0
1-31Hampton (251.0)MEACH63-60W100%0.0
2-7Howard (255.0)MEACH72-69W100%0.0
2-9Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH64-82L0%0.0
2-14Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA73-70L0%0.0
2-21Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA81-99W100%0.0
2-23Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH81-71W100%0.0
3-2Howard (255.0)MEACA61-59L0%0.0
3-5Hampton (251.0)MEACA69-80W100%0.0
3-11South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACN68-54W100%0.0
3-13Hampton (251.0)MEACN64-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.1626.1662.9462.946.776.77
HamptonMEAC5.505.5050.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC3.873.8720.6920.69-2.27-2.27
Coppin St.MEAC3.863.8625.0025.00-1.93-1.93
HowardMEAC3.823.8244.4444.44-0.42-0.42
South Carolina St.MEAC3.803.8031.0331.03-1.44-1.44
Delaware St.MEAC2.482.4850.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.352.3554.8454.840.230.23
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.272.2775.0075.001.141.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.252.2531.0331.03-0.85-0.85
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.222.2224.1424.14-1.15-1.15
Savannah St.MEAC2.222.2225.0025.00-1.11-1.11
Florida A&MMEAC2.172.177.147.14-1.86-1.86
HofstraCAA1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
Northern ArizonaBSky1.711.7158.0658.060.280.28
James MadisonCAA1.711.7161.2961.290.390.39
St. Francis NYNEC1.691.6968.7568.750.630.63
VirginiaACC1.691.6990.3290.321.361.36
VanderbiltSEC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.671.6748.4848.48-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
BaylorB121.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
Boston UniversityPat1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
PrincetonIvy1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.2510.3410.34-0.20-0.20
TowsonCAA0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
NJITind0.200.2056.0056.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1527.2727.27-0.07-0.07
ElonCAA0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
CornellIvy0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
FordhamA100.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
BucknellPat0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
PennIvy0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1018.7518.75-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
FloridaSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ColgatePat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01