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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:308
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:20-3
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-8128.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marquette (9.0)BEA99-68L0%0.0
11-18Drexel (64.0)CAAN56-61W100%0.0
11-20Texas Christian (114.0)MWCN53-66W100%0.0
11-21Marquette (9.0)BEN59-57L0%0.0
11-27Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCH70-63W100%0.0
12-3Savannah St. (191.0)MEACH60-58W100%0.0
12-5South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACH82-67W100%0.0
12-11Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCA73-60L0%0.0
12-14Long Island (80.0)NECH73-62W100%0.0
12-18Illinois St. (100.0)MVCA68-36L0%0.0
12-20Toledo (246.0)MACA70-72W100%0.0
12-23St. Francis NY (210.0)NECA74-84W100%0.0
1-1Navy (327.0)PatA65-71W100%0.0
1-7Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)MEACH78-72W100%0.0
1-9Howard (284.0)MEACH68-48W100%0.0
1-14Morgan St. (286.0)MEACA89-90W100%0.0
1-16Coppin St. (276.0)MEACA66-74W100%0.0
1-21Hampton (306.0)MEACA75-80W100%0.0
1-24Morehead St. (166.0)OVCH69-75L0%0.0
1-28Morgan St. (286.0)MEACH76-59W100%0.0
1-30Coppin St. (276.0)MEACH82-87L0%0.0
2-4Delaware St. (249.0)MEACA67-50L0%0.0
2-6Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)MEACA60-72W100%0.0
2-11Hampton (306.0)MEACH70-62W100%0.0
2-15Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH63-73L0%0.0
2-20Longwood (332.0)indH66-52W100%0.0
2-25Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACA72-75W100%0.0
2-27Florida A&M (316.0)MEACA70-79W100%0.0
3-1North Carolina A&T (289.0)MEACA65-72W100%0.0
3-7Howard (284.0)MEACN71-61W100%0.0
3-9Florida A&M (316.0)MEACN58-46W100%0.0
3-10Bethune Cookman (239.0)MEACN73-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.3026.3076.2576.2513.8113.81
HamptonMEAC3.933.9338.7138.71-0.89-0.89
HowardMEAC3.853.8532.1432.14-1.37-1.37
Delaware St.MEAC3.833.8344.0044.00-0.46-0.46
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.803.8022.2222.22-2.11-2.11
Morgan St.MEAC3.793.7933.3333.33-1.26-1.26
Coppin St.MEAC3.773.7737.5037.50-0.94-0.94
Florida A&MMEAC3.763.7627.5927.59-1.69-1.69
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.753.7551.6151.610.120.12
MarquetteBE3.123.1276.6776.671.671.67
South Carolina St.MEAC2.242.2410.7110.71-1.76-1.76
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.192.1932.1432.14-0.78-0.78
Savannah St.MEAC2.182.1865.5265.520.680.68
Longwoodind1.721.7223.0823.08-0.92-0.92
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.701.7048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
NavyPat1.651.657.417.41-1.40-1.40
Morehead St.OVC1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC1.641.6459.3859.380.310.31
Long IslandNEC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
DrexelCAA1.561.5684.3884.381.071.07
Texas ChristianMWC1.561.5655.1755.170.160.16
ToledoMAC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
Virginia TechACC1.561.5646.8846.88-0.10-0.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.810.8146.4346.43-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
AmericanPat0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
VirginiaACC0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
DelawareCAA0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
QuinnipiacNEC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.180.1832.0032.00-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.170.1716.1316.13-0.12-0.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
LehighPat0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
RiceCUSA0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Kansas St.B120.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
LibertyBSth0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCAA0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
RutgersBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
TowsonCAA0.110.113.123.12-0.10-0.10
Notre DameBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
WyomingMWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1196.4396.430.100.10
LafayettePat0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1037.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
WinthropBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CreightonMVC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
AuburnSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
PittsburghBE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
RiderMAAC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
BaylorB120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
BradleyMVC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
CharlotteA100.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seattleind0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
XavierA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
North DakotaGWC0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MissouriB120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ButlerHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
TempleA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
OaklandSum0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00