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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:225.0
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:297
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16225.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina (65.0)SECA84-69L0%0.0
11-20Indiana St. (172.0)MVCN61-70L0%0.0
11-21Ohio (81.0)MACN71-93L0%0.0
11-23DePaul (198.0)BEN82-78L0%0.0
11-30Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyA66-70W100%0.0
12-7Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA56-88W100%0.0
12-13Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA81-60L0%0.0
12-15Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA75-59L0%0.0
12-17Evansville (93.0)MVCA84-70L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (215.0)CUSAA76-85W100%0.0
12-22UC Irvine (75.0)BWN62-80L0%0.0
12-29Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA68-57L0%0.0
1-2Alabama (73.0)SECA68-49L0%0.0
1-5Princeton (39.0)IvyH74-83L0%0.0
1-9Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
1-11Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH70-72L0%0.0
1-16North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA79-88W100%0.0
1-18North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA68-75W100%0.0
1-23South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH87-74W100%0.0
1-25Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH92-73W100%0.0
1-30Hampton (155.0)MEACA86-76L0%0.0
2-6Howard (328.0)MEACA92-99W100%0.0
2-8Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA70-76W100%0.0
2-13Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH79-73W100%0.0
2-20Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA67-64L0%0.0
2-22Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH85-77W100%0.0
2-24Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA89-72L0%0.0
2-29Howard (328.0)MEACH84-66W100%0.0
3-3Hampton (155.0)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
3-9North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH66-47W100%0.0
3-11South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH65-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.1526.1551.7751.770.930.93
HamptonMEAC3.993.9967.8667.861.421.42
Morgan St.MEAC3.923.9225.0025.00-1.96-1.96
South Carolina St.MEAC3.883.8855.1755.170.400.40
Coppin St.MEAC3.873.8725.9325.93-1.86-1.86
HowardMEAC3.853.8535.7135.71-1.10-1.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.823.8237.0437.04-0.99-0.99
Savannah St.MEAC2.342.3450.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.342.3430.0030.00-0.94-0.94
Delaware St.MEAC2.312.3113.7913.79-1.67-1.67
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.302.3033.3333.33-0.77-0.77
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.272.2737.9337.93-0.55-0.55
Florida A&MMEAC2.232.2323.0823.08-1.20-1.20
Old DominionCUSA1.741.7461.7661.760.410.41
EvansvilleMVC1.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
South CarolinaSEC1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
Indiana St.MVC1.691.6943.3343.33-0.22-0.22
CincinnatiAmer1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Northern ArizonaBSky1.671.6711.1111.11-1.30-1.30
PrincetonIvy1.671.6776.9276.920.900.90
UTEPCUSA1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
AlabamaSEC1.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
DePaulBE1.641.6426.6726.67-0.76-0.76
Northern KentuckyHorz1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
UC IrvineBW1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
OhioMAC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
AkronMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
MarshallCUSA0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
XavierBE0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
MissouriSEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
FIUCUSA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
ClemsonACC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00