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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:309.9
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:62
Current Record:0-7
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11194.80.04%
16-12218.00.43%
15-13239.81.06%
14-14257.33.46%
13-15274.77.77%
12-16290.413.62%
11-17305.217.34%
10-18316.420.01%
9-19325.616.24%
8-20333.211.08%
7-21338.95.48%
6-22343.02.49%
5-23346.60.75%
4-24347.30.17%
3-25348.70.03%
2-26351.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi St. (155.0)SECA78-74L0%0.0
11-18Vanderbilt (74.8)SECA75-52L0%0.0
11-21Butler (14.3)BEA91-55L0%0.0
11-24Bucknell (94.2)PatN84-58L0%0.0
11-25Sacred Heart (310.2)NECN61-59L0%0.0
11-30Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCA75-62L0%0.0
12-3Northern Kentucky (164.9)HorzH61-72L0%0.0
12-10Niagara (266.5)MAACA0-026%-7.9
12-14Evansville (186.0)MVCA0-013%-13.5
12-19Eastern Kentucky (155.6)OVCH0-031%-5.9
12-21Purdue (23.6)B10A0-00%-33.0
12-30Bowling Green (237.3)MACA0-018%-10.9
1-4Morgan St. (324.6)MEACA0-044%-1.9
1-7Savannah St. (345.5)MEACH0-082%11.2
1-9South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACH0-075%8.0
1-14North Carolina Central (161.9)MEACH0-026%-7.6
1-16Delaware St. (287.9)MEACA0-041%-2.8
1-21Hampton (312.6)MEACH0-058%2.5
1-23Coppin St. (342.9)MEACA0-068%5.7
1-28Bethune Cookman (340.5)MEACH0-074%7.8
1-30North Carolina A&T (343.1)MEACH0-079%9.5
2-4South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACA0-056%1.7
2-6Savannah St. (345.5)MEACA0-066%4.9
2-11Maryland Eastern Shore (294.9)MEACH0-058%2.6
2-18Florida A&M (345.3)MEACA0-061%3.2
2-20Bethune Cookman (340.5)MEACA0-055%1.5
2-25Howard (267.2)MEACH0-050%0.1
2-27Hampton (312.6)MEACA0-038%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC28.0626.130.0039.62-28.06-5.42
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.180.0018.54-0.00-2.63
HamptonMEAC0.004.1814.2942.03-0.00-0.67
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.180.0025.53-0.00-2.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.1212.5030.66-0.00-1.59
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.500.0016.63-0.00-1.67
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4625.0040.62-0.00-0.46
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.430.0034.29-0.00-0.76
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.430.0021.82-0.00-1.37
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.512.4262.5074.170.131.17
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4012.5036.32-0.00-0.66
HowardMEAC0.002.4016.6743.31-0.00-0.32
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.400.0020.60-0.00-1.41
EvansvilleMVC0.001.8850.0043.630.00-0.24
VanderbiltSEC7.951.8750.0045.000.00-0.19
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.8525.0039.36-0.00-0.39
Loyola ChicagoMVC7.141.8566.6757.362.380.27
BucknellPat7.991.8466.6769.552.660.72
ButlerBE7.901.84100.0073.967.900.88
Northern KentuckyHorz7.141.8250.0052.220.000.08
Mississippi St.SEC7.141.8171.4345.713.06-0.16
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.7950.0050.340.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7925.0034.46-0.00-0.56
PurdueB100.001.7977.7876.910.000.96
Sacred HeartNEC7.141.7937.5036.09-1.79-0.50
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2262.5060.090.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.2277.7886.650.000.16
Morehead St.OVC0.510.1816.6738.87-0.34-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1670.0050.010.000.00
IowaB100.000.1544.4438.41-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1557.1450.790.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.15100.0078.180.000.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1528.5731.07-0.00-0.06
St. John'sBE0.000.1544.4436.20-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1571.4365.470.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1542.8650.98-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.1537.5047.44-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.360.1530.0045.49-0.14-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.360.1522.2232.01-0.20-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.1333.3346.06-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1325.0030.02-0.00-0.05
UCFAmer0.450.1385.7175.800.320.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1277.7872.210.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1212.5026.05-0.00-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1260.0067.820.000.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1233.3352.49-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.420.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1237.5025.74-0.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0020.21-0.00-0.07
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4347.690.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1250.0050.170.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1255.5647.600.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1237.5047.57-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.1212.5028.64-0.00-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1262.5052.400.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1233.3352.03-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.400.1277.7864.250.220.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1285.7157.280.000.02
IndianaB100.000.1287.5074.510.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1211.1149.12-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.1250.0044.700.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.750.1262.5055.890.190.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1042.8643.55-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1071.4354.560.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1033.3351.98-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1025.0031.76-0.00-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.510.1060.0069.260.100.04
SamfordSC0.000.1062.5056.520.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1057.1433.200.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.1025.0026.46-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.920.000.06
Oregon St.P120.450.1025.0023.62-0.22-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.0975.0071.330.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0920.0060.00-0.000.02
RichmondA100.360.0950.0048.500.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0975.0055.480.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.510.0933.3336.67-0.17-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0942.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0937.5037.96-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7175.250.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.0962.5052.060.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0962.5044.840.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0977.7865.840.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0021.30-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0937.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0950.0060.950.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0985.7177.000.000.05
BelmontOVC0.400.0957.1464.500.060.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.690.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.400.0985.7169.920.280.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0937.5038.08-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.510.0937.5028.47-0.13-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.0966.6746.170.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0987.5050.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0928.5752.65-0.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.450.0950.0061.350.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.740.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.200.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0047.990.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.740.000.06
ArkansasSEC0.000.0987.5069.040.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0977.7872.930.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.0987.5082.220.000.06
LehighPat0.450.0937.5061.81-0.110.02
Northern ColoradoBSky1.200.0916.6740.32-0.80-0.02
NorthwesternB100.450.0975.0066.090.220.03
LafayettePat0.000.0942.8635.40-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0933.3350.05-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0716.6730.09-0.00-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0742.8657.52-0.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0788.8956.710.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0775.0056.270.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0777.7866.740.000.02
OregonP120.000.0775.0072.800.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0089.590.000.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.0737.5043.19-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0762.5062.080.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0071.340.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.33-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0662.5053.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0069.680.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.15-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5642.150.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.190.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.92-0.00-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.450.0620.0035.46-0.27-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.510.060.0032.29-0.51-0.02
DelawareCAA0.510.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1449.640.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.35-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0657.1429.760.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0043.770.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.400.0637.5044.87-0.10-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.450.0650.0056.890.000.01
UtahP120.450.0680.0058.220.270.01
HofstraCAA0.400.0655.5643.870.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.510.0666.6751.140.170.00
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.030.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0076.970.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.440.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.540.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.880.000.02
ArizonaP120.840.0677.7870.290.470.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1451.810.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0637.5044.42-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0628.5727.38-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5030.11-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.99-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.400.0622.2226.44-0.22-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.540.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.85-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.60-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
MinnesotaB100.400.0688.8966.920.310.02
NavyPat0.000.0633.3338.56-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.860.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.790.0633.3332.79-0.26-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3340.37-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.110.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.88-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.02-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0325.0043.29-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.090.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0375.0075.180.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.530.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0045.82-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5067.080.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.680.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.24-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0342.8650.82-0.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.510.0375.0050.980.260.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.510.030.0022.75-0.51-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.570.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.0342.8645.34-0.07-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.380.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0371.4355.570.000.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Washington St.P120.510.0342.8629.20-0.07-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.250.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.32-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.450.0312.5030.51-0.33-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.50-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.450.0320.0042.14-0.27-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.690.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0041.460.00-0.00
FordhamA100.400.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
La SalleA100.360.0357.1456.540.050.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0070.350.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.400.0320.0035.15-0.24-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.57-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.360.0377.7855.180.200.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0342.8663.63-0.000.01