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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:254.0
Current RPI:254
Expected SOS:326
Current SOS:326
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16254.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA78-74L0%0.0
11-18Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA75-52L0%0.0
11-21Butler (15.0)BEA91-55L0%0.0
11-24Bucknell (63.0)PatN84-58L0%0.0
11-25Sacred Heart (304.0)NECN61-59L0%0.0
11-30Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA75-62L0%0.0
12-3Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH61-72L0%0.0
12-10Niagara (275.0)MAACA65-61L0%0.0
12-14Evansville (188.0)MVCA85-66L0%0.0
12-19Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH87-80W100%0.0
12-21Purdue (19.0)B10A91-45L0%0.0
12-30Bowling Green (225.0)MACA86-77L0%0.0
1-4Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA58-56L0%0.0
1-11Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH80-76W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH57-72L0%0.0
1-16Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA70-75W100%0.0
1-21Hampton (283.0)MEACH79-62W100%0.0
1-23Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA64-74W100%0.0
1-28Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH73-66W100%0.0
1-30North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH83-69W100%0.0
2-4South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA62-65W100%0.0
2-6Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA87-92W100%0.0
2-11Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH75-69W100%0.0
2-15South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH81-70W100%0.0
2-18Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA65-77W100%0.0
2-20Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA75-65L0%0.0
2-25Howard (337.0)MEACH73-65W100%0.0
2-27Hampton (283.0)MEACA63-59L0%0.0
3-8South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH93-88W100%0.0
3-10Howard (337.0)MEACH68-53W100%0.0
3-11North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH59-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.2726.2750.3950.390.200.20
South Carolina St.MEAC5.455.4534.6234.62-1.68-1.68
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.933.9371.4371.431.681.68
HowardMEAC3.893.8926.6726.67-1.81-1.81
HamptonMEAC3.883.8842.3142.31-0.60-0.60
Savannah St.MEAC3.863.8644.0044.00-0.46-0.46
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.853.8525.0025.00-1.93-1.93
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.432.4338.7138.71-0.55-0.55
Coppin St.MEAC2.382.3824.1424.14-1.23-1.23
Florida A&MMEAC2.352.3518.5218.52-1.48-1.48
Morgan St.MEAC2.322.3242.8642.86-0.33-0.33
Delaware St.MEAC2.302.3027.5927.59-1.03-1.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.292.293.453.45-2.13-2.13
EvansvilleMVC1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
VanderbiltSEC1.691.6954.5554.550.150.15
Bowling GreenMAC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Northern KentuckyHorz1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
BucknellPat1.661.6675.7675.760.860.86
ButlerBE1.661.6673.3373.330.770.77
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
NiagaraMAAC1.611.6128.1228.12-0.71-0.71
PurdueB101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Sacred HeartNEC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
JacksonvilleASun0.220.2246.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.210.2187.8887.880.160.16
Texas A&MSEC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Holy CrossPat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
MarquetteBE0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
MichiganB100.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
AmericanPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00