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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:178.0
Current RPI:178
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:330
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:16-1
Expected Conf Record:16-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:20-3
Current OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:262


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11178.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Rhode Island (201.0)A10A55-67W100%0.0
11-12Seton Hall (138.0)BEA78-65L0%0.0
11-15Longwood (332.0)BSthA66-78W100%0.0
11-17Loyola MD (99.0)MAACN65-49L0%0.0
11-18Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumN63-57L0%0.0
11-24Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCA68-44L0%0.0
11-26Morehead St. (172.0)OVCA73-67L0%0.0
11-29St. Francis NY (207.0)NECH85-79W100%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (166.0)MEACA45-55W100%0.0
12-3South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACA72-78W100%0.0
12-9MD Baltimore County (298.0)AEH83-66W100%0.0
12-11Illinois (40.0)B10A64-54L0%0.0
12-15North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA84-62L0%0.0
12-23Iona (98.0)MAACA100-72L0%0.0
12-29East Carolina (100.0)CUSAA74-63L0%0.0
1-2Ball St. (233.0)MACA62-61L0%0.0
1-5Navy (308.0)PatH74-68W100%0.0
1-12Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACA58-63W100%0.0
1-14Howard (334.0)MEACA49-54W100%0.0
1-19Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH75-68W100%0.0
1-21Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH73-71W100%0.0
1-26Hampton (287.0)MEACH74-67W100%0.0
2-2Coppin St. (313.0)MEACA70-80W100%0.0
2-4Morgan St. (236.0)MEACA59-64W100%0.0
2-9Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH74-56W100%0.0
2-11Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACH85-63W100%0.0
2-18Hampton (287.0)MEACA59-62W100%0.0
2-23Delaware St. (263.0)MEACA56-60W100%0.0
3-2Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH62-61W100%0.0
3-4Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH69-58W100%0.0
3-7North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH55-48W100%0.0
3-13Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH68-70L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.1226.1271.5371.5311.2511.25
Delaware St.MEAC3.823.8244.8344.83-0.39-0.39
Morgan St.MEAC3.793.7956.6756.670.510.51
Coppin St.MEAC3.763.7624.1424.14-1.95-1.95
HamptonMEAC3.713.7148.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.683.687.697.69-3.11-3.11
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.663.6636.6736.67-0.98-0.98
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.232.2354.5554.550.200.20
HowardMEAC2.232.2321.4321.43-1.27-1.27
Savannah St.MEAC2.152.1556.6756.670.290.29
Florida A&MMEAC2.092.0921.4321.43-1.20-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.092.0914.8114.81-1.47-1.47
Loyola MDMAAC1.711.7164.5264.520.500.50
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.711.7170.0070.000.680.68
Seton HallBE1.661.6643.7543.75-0.21-0.21
MD Baltimore CountyAE1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
IllinoisB101.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
LongwoodBSth1.611.6120.0020.00-0.97-0.97
Morehead St.OVC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
NavyPat1.611.6124.1424.14-0.83-0.83
IonaMAAC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
Rhode IslandA101.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
Missouri Kansas CitySum1.591.5920.0020.00-0.95-0.95
St. Francis NYNEC1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Ball St.MAC1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
East CarolinaCUSA1.561.5652.0052.000.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.561.5669.7069.700.620.62
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.630.6367.8667.860.230.23
MarshallCUSA0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.210.2170.5970.590.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA0.190.1962.0762.070.050.05
MarylandACC0.180.1864.7164.710.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
ColgatePat0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
PittsburghBE0.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
LibertyBSth0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
RadfordBSth0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
South DakotaSum0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
CampbellBSth0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.130.1348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
QuinnipiacNEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Ohio St.B100.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
High PointBSth0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1257.6957.690.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
VermontAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LafayettePat0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaBE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
BucknellPat0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
ClemsonACC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
RutgersBE0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
AkronMAC0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
StetsonASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
OaklandSum0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MichiganB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteA100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
XavierA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DenverWAC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.7593.750.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Notre DameBE0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00