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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:206.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:238
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:8-2
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13185.621.75%
15-14200.939.32%
14-15216.627.04%
13-16232.99.67%
12-17249.62.01%
11-18265.60.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina (40.7)SECA84-69L0%0.0
11-20Indiana St. (158.5)MVCN61-70L0%0.0
11-21Ohio (95.8)MACN71-93L0%0.0
11-23DePaul (167.1)BEN82-78L0%0.0
11-30Northern Arizona (322.2)BSkyA66-70W100%0.0
12-7Coppin St. (327.3)MEACA56-88W100%0.0
12-13Northern Kentucky (247.3)HorzA81-60L0%0.0
12-15Cincinnati (47.3)AmerA75-59L0%0.0
12-17Evansville (75.1)MVCA84-70L0%0.0
12-21UTEP (234.5)CUSAA76-85W100%0.0
12-22UC Irvine (69.0)BWN62-80L0%0.0
12-29Old Dominion (139.5)CUSAA68-57L0%0.0
1-2Alabama (70.1)SECA68-49L0%0.0
1-5Princeton (53.0)IvyH74-83L0%0.0
1-9Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
1-11Bethune Cookman (301.5)MEACH70-72L0%0.0
1-16North Carolina Central (320.6)MEACA79-88W100%0.0
1-18North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACA68-75W100%0.0
1-23South Carolina St. (207.1)MEACH87-74W100%0.0
1-25Savannah St. (328.2)MEACH92-73W100%0.0
1-30Hampton (194.4)MEACA86-76L0%0.0
2-6Howard (297.1)MEACA92-99W100%0.0
2-8Maryland Eastern Shore (276.1)MEACA70-76W100%0.0
2-13Morgan St. (332.0)MEACH0-082%9.9
2-20Delaware St. (349.1)MEACA0-086%11.6
2-22Coppin St. (327.3)MEACH0-090%13.7
2-24Morgan St. (332.0)MEACA0-062%3.3
2-29Howard (297.1)MEACH0-081%9.4
3-3Hampton (194.4)MEACH0-069%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.1326.1451.3355.690.692.97
Morgan St.MEAC0.494.1119.0525.73-0.30-1.99
HamptonMEAC2.744.1057.1460.990.390.90
HowardMEAC2.474.0138.1041.18-0.59-0.71
Coppin St.MEAC2.574.0015.0021.94-1.80-2.25
Delaware St.MEAC0.452.429.0912.18-0.37-1.83
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.622.3730.4334.94-1.03-0.71
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.632.3630.4334.26-1.03-0.74
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.522.3228.5733.86-1.08-0.75
Savannah St.MEAC2.572.3240.0039.21-0.51-0.50
South Carolina St.MEAC2.522.3254.5556.150.230.29
Florida A&MMEAC2.532.2526.3226.13-1.20-1.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.522.2526.3234.53-1.19-0.70
Old DominionCUSA2.221.8754.5561.580.200.43
EvansvilleMVC2.311.8173.9175.371.110.92
South CarolinaSEC2.311.8186.3679.701.681.08
Northern ArizonaBSky2.221.7910.5313.65-1.76-1.30
PrincetonIvy2.221.7970.5973.710.920.85
UTEPCUSA2.231.7954.5553.730.200.13
CincinnatiAmer2.171.7970.8370.590.910.74
AlabamaSEC2.271.7859.0954.450.410.16
Indiana St.MVC2.261.7847.8347.80-0.10-0.08
DePaulBE2.221.7530.4331.74-0.87-0.64
Northern KentuckyHorz2.221.7530.0032.55-0.89-0.61
UC IrvineBW2.221.7571.4370.680.950.72
OhioMAC2.171.7261.9060.100.520.35
AkronMAC0.200.1982.6181.130.130.12
Southern IllinoisMVC0.240.1873.0872.640.110.08
UC RiversideBW0.100.1845.8341.65-0.01-0.03
TulsaAmer0.240.1866.6764.730.080.05
ColumbiaIvy0.090.1666.6765.220.030.05
William & MaryCAA0.150.1571.4369.840.060.06
MissouriSEC0.190.1533.3330.27-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1543.4843.76-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.200.1550.0051.190.000.00
XavierBE0.230.1587.5081.860.170.09
DrakeMVC0.180.1520.8323.19-0.11-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.180.1573.9176.740.090.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1352.0050.230.010.00
TowsonCAA0.050.1365.2259.750.020.02
Kansas St.B120.140.1358.3356.290.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.1342.1140.18-0.01-0.02
HarvardIvy0.110.1335.0038.52-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.140.1264.0062.040.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1282.6181.130.060.08
HoustonAmer0.150.1270.8367.980.060.04
ToledoMAC0.200.1260.8762.080.040.03
Ball St.MAC0.190.1260.8757.160.040.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1240.9145.29-0.03-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.1286.9682.900.070.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.1231.8230.15-0.02-0.05
HawaiiBW0.050.1284.2181.660.030.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1271.4368.750.060.04
PurdueB100.140.1280.0077.960.090.07
South FloridaAmer0.190.1220.0019.76-0.11-0.07
BradleyMVC0.090.1212.0011.96-0.07-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.090.1254.1750.990.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1245.8343.68-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1237.5037.41-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1256.0055.420.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.1256.5257.000.010.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.1241.6739.46-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.180.1270.8368.990.070.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1145.4546.21-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1131.5832.01-0.05-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1134.7840.89-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.1040.0043.42-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.1054.5550.110.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0950.0049.850.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0939.1341.03-0.03-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0928.5729.64-0.02-0.04
Iowa St.B120.100.0970.8368.000.040.03
AmericanPat0.090.0929.1731.18-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.110.0931.5831.04-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0921.7422.74-0.06-0.05
PennIvy0.060.0938.8937.69-0.01-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0981.8283.030.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0966.6767.710.020.03
RiderMAAC0.060.0940.0042.12-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.095.007.22-0.09-0.08
WinthropBSth0.100.0965.0063.440.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0947.6249.35-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.090.0924.0026.33-0.05-0.04
ClemsonACC0.150.0958.3358.370.020.02
OregonP120.150.0982.6179.250.100.05
Miami OHMAC0.050.0934.7833.05-0.01-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.0983.3381.320.100.06
Kent St.MAC0.140.0965.2260.580.040.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0950.0045.820.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.0956.0052.840.020.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.0945.0049.23-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.140.0950.0044.680.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0950.0053.000.000.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0939.1335.44-0.02-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0966.6766.330.020.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0959.0955.220.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0975.0072.630.020.04
LSUSEC0.090.0962.5059.050.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0965.2268.590.040.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0972.0069.150.040.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0925.0023.45-0.02-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.090.0963.6459.710.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.7327.18-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.050.0913.6413.63-0.03-0.06
MemphisAmer0.130.0858.3359.360.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0833.3333.07-0.02-0.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0828.5729.66-0.02-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0765.2262.830.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0752.3850.750.000.00
IowaB100.050.0782.6180.520.030.04
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.18-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.050.0669.5765.310.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0631.5831.74-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.0652.3854.070.010.01
Green BayHorz0.100.0654.5556.010.010.01
IdahoBSky0.110.0654.5554.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0645.0046.11-0.01-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0659.0959.650.020.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.320.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.75-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.12-0.03-0.04
OaklandHorz0.100.0668.0067.990.040.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.32-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.230.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.020.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0673.6874.680.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0621.7423.40-0.06-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0650.0054.190.000.01
UtahP120.050.0670.8368.500.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0614.2924.86-0.07-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0620.0022.26-0.06-0.03
MarylandB100.110.0687.5083.690.080.04
MichiganB100.050.0670.8366.720.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.0679.1778.060.060.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0625.0030.04-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0655.0057.460.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0642.8642.01-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0640.9139.26-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.280.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.16-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0683.3378.470.000.04
WagnerNEC0.000.0663.6465.020.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0690.4886.910.080.04
Boise St.MWC0.100.0660.8760.530.020.01
LipscombASun0.110.0625.0029.28-0.05-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0613.6415.80-0.07-0.04
Washington St.P120.100.0636.3631.98-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.0672.7370.400.040.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0660.0057.640.020.01
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.73-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0669.5764.900.040.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0663.6461.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0665.2264.230.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.69-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0624.0025.67-0.05-0.03
NebraskaB100.040.0652.0050.780.000.00
RichmondA100.100.0656.5255.730.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.55-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0633.3330.60-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0645.4551.39-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0664.0057.920.010.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.920.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0630.4331.21-0.04-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.100.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0675.0075.330.050.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0642.8650.41-0.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0658.3359.960.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.870.030.04
UC DavisBW0.050.0640.0036.70-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0675.0071.920.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0671.4369.430.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0624.0024.57-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0682.6179.390.060.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0628.5731.30-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0673.9172.580.020.03
VCUA100.090.0673.9174.060.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0335.0034.80-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.120.020.01
SamfordSC0.050.0341.6742.61-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.23-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.480.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.97-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.20-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.310.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.330.030.02
BucknellPat0.060.0352.1754.960.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0350.0051.910.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.880.030.02
LafayettePat0.060.0320.8321.68-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0334.7836.51-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0382.6177.520.040.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.380.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.90-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0328.5727.00-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.72-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0340.9143.25-0.01-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0381.8282.620.040.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.360.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0321.7423.32-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.110.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.03-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.28-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.630.020.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.160.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.05-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.47-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.35-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.660.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.73-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0354.5552.540.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.150.030.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.18-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.11-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.17-0.02-0.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.760.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.56-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.820.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0325.0028.89-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.380.040.02
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.530.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0336.8437.57-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0327.2731.06-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.310.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.45-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.220.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.040.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01