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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:227.0
Current RPI:227
Expected SOS:313
Current SOS:313
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:171



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14227.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA95-83L0%0.0
11-18East Carolina (216.0)CUSAN76-74L0%0.0
11-19UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthN80-78W100%0.0
11-25Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECN70-62W100%0.0
12-1LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA74-72L0%0.0
12-5Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH91-87W100%0.0
12-7Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH59-45W100%0.0
12-15Boston University (84.0)PatA82-86W100%0.0
12-19Seattle (267.0)WACN70-67L0%0.0
12-23Virginia (8.0)ACCA66-56L0%0.0
12-30Hawaii (160.0)BWA77-66L0%0.0
1-3Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH84-104L0%0.0
1-11Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA62-66W100%0.0
1-13Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA56-58W100%0.0
1-18Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH70-87L0%0.0
1-20Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH83-71W100%0.0
1-25South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA73-61L0%0.0
1-27Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA49-56W100%0.0
2-1Miami FL (110.0)ACCA64-49L0%0.0
2-8Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA53-64W100%0.0
2-10Howard (323.0)MEACH75-49W100%0.0
2-15Hampton (204.0)MEACH73-79L0%0.0
2-22Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA68-73W100%0.0
2-24Howard (323.0)MEACA60-66W100%0.0
3-1Hampton (204.0)MEACA61-53L0%0.0
3-3Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
3-6North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH70-76L0%0.0
3-10Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACN78-74W100%0.0
3-13Savannah St. (273.0)MEACN57-47W100%0.0
3-14North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACN68-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC26.3426.3456.7656.763.563.56
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.635.6320.0020.00-3.38-3.38
Coppin St.MEAC4.154.1537.9337.93-1.00-1.00
HamptonMEAC4.144.1457.1457.140.590.59
HowardMEAC4.094.0920.6920.69-2.40-2.40
Morgan St.MEAC4.084.0848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.064.0682.7682.762.662.66
Savannah St.MEAC3.953.9539.2939.29-0.85-0.85
Delaware St.MEAC2.452.4525.9325.93-1.18-1.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.342.3417.2417.24-1.53-1.53
South Carolina St.MEAC2.332.3322.2222.22-1.30-1.30
Florida A&MMEAC2.332.3341.3841.38-0.40-0.40
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.871.8748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC1.771.7750.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC1.771.7728.5728.57-0.76-0.76
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.751.7532.1432.14-0.62-0.62
VirginiaACC1.751.7581.8281.821.111.11
Texas SouthernSWAC1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Boston UniversityPat1.701.7072.7372.730.770.77
East CarolinaCUSA1.701.7042.8642.86-0.24-0.24
UNC AshevilleBSth1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW1.671.6760.7160.710.360.36
SeattleWAC1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.810.8125.8125.81-0.39-0.39
NJITind0.260.2636.0036.00-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.2561.7661.760.060.06
WagnerNEC0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
AmericanPat0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
MarylandACC0.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.200.2056.6756.670.030.03
PittsburghACC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
Oregon St.P120.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.170.1745.4545.45-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1716.1316.13-0.11-0.11
Old DominionCUSA0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
NavyPat0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
CampbellBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01