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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Norfolk St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:178.5
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:301
Current SOS:300
Current Record:5-5
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-788.00.08%
21-8102.00.56%
20-9115.82.88%
19-10130.37.98%
18-11147.315.49%
17-12164.620.44%
16-13183.421.04%
15-14203.216.09%
14-15223.69.04%
13-16244.84.50%
12-17262.91.33%
11-18283.00.45%
10-19296.10.10%
8-21324.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Norfolk St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Virginia (7.3)ACCA67-39L0%0.0
11-19Boston University (203.6)PatH63-71L0%0.0
11-22Texas Southern (226.8)SWACH76-66W100%0.0
11-25Vanderbilt (89.5)SECA63-53L0%0.0
11-28St. Francis NY (268.3)NECN70-72W100%0.0
11-29Saint Peter's (224.5)MAACA58-60W100%0.0
12-2Hofstra (65.7)CAAA88-74L0%0.0
12-6Morgan St. (303.9)MEACH85-65W100%0.0
12-8Coppin St. (335.0)MEACH88-69W100%0.0
12-13Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECA67-64L0%0.0
12-19Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyH0-067%5.0
12-22James Madison (122.0)CAAA0-026%-7.4
12-30Baylor (10.6)B12A0-03%-22.5
1-3Georgia (54.3)SECA0-09%-16.1
1-6Princeton (236.6)IvyA0-036%-4.2
1-10Florida A&M (348.9)MEACA0-089%14.4
1-12Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACA0-068%5.4
1-17North Carolina Central (148.9)MEACH0-052%0.5
1-19North Carolina A&T (335.7)MEACH0-091%15.7
1-24South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACA0-069%5.8
1-26Savannah St. (320.4)MEACA0-076%8.2
1-31Hampton (246.4)MEACH0-073%7.3
2-7Howard (275.2)MEACH0-079%9.4
2-9Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACH0-079%9.6
2-14Morgan St. (303.9)MEACA0-057%2.1
2-21Coppin St. (335.0)MEACA0-083%11.4
2-23Delaware St. (247.9)MEACH0-080%9.9
3-2Howard (275.2)MEACA0-052%0.7
3-5Hampton (246.4)MEACA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Norfolk St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Norfolk St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Norfolk St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Norfolk St.MEAC27.7226.0952.5061.811.396.16
HamptonMEAC0.514.0540.0051.03-0.100.08
Coppin St.MEAC5.284.040.0015.30-5.28-2.81
Morgan St.MEAC5.004.0220.0037.04-3.00-1.04
HowardMEAC0.004.0230.0044.64-0.00-0.43
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.312.3941.6745.11-0.05-0.23
Delaware St.MEAC0.282.3840.0047.68-0.06-0.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.3244.4470.91-0.000.97
South Carolina St.MEAC0.252.3220.0029.77-0.15-0.94
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.3020.0034.15-0.00-0.73
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.300.0012.41-0.00-1.73
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.300.0023.65-0.00-1.21
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.3018.1828.16-0.00-1.00
HofstraCAA5.281.8475.0077.832.641.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.8240.0051.37-0.000.05
St. Francis NYNEC5.001.8125.0041.84-2.50-0.30
VanderbiltSEC5.001.8171.4359.042.140.33
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.001.8128.5735.74-2.14-0.52
James MadisonCAA0.251.8170.0060.360.100.37
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.281.7840.0048.70-1.06-0.05
VirginiaACC5.001.78100.0084.805.001.24
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7862.5058.400.000.30
BaylorB120.591.7890.0073.070.470.82
Texas SouthernSWAC5.001.7512.5046.11-3.75-0.14
Boston UniversityPat5.231.7525.0040.05-2.61-0.35
PrincetonIvy0.231.7527.2736.92-0.10-0.46
TowsonCAA0.510.2666.6751.430.170.01
Tennessee St.OVC1.070.230.0016.85-1.07-0.15
NJITind0.280.2136.3640.98-0.08-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1722.2230.85-0.00-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1728.5741.17-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1757.1456.750.000.02
ElonCAA0.230.1737.5047.87-0.06-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.1560.0065.400.000.05
IllinoisB100.280.1572.7365.930.130.05
CornellIvy0.000.1555.5648.240.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1560.0064.620.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.310.1550.0038.000.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1460.0037.220.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1433.3344.71-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1450.0058.360.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1450.0062.270.000.04
WagnerNEC0.280.1414.2933.54-0.20-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1462.5064.260.000.04
RiderMAAC0.230.1450.0052.800.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.230.1455.5638.130.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1450.0044.900.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.280.1466.6757.860.090.02
La SalleA101.070.1450.0049.960.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.140.007.39-0.00-0.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1242.8655.64-0.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.1290.0075.520.000.06
FordhamA100.000.1228.5728.26-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.590.1290.9171.890.480.05
BucknellPat0.310.1240.0036.29-0.06-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.1250.0055.810.000.01
HarvardIvy0.280.1285.7172.940.200.05
PennIvy0.000.1237.5033.00-0.00-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1210.0018.01-0.00-0.08
KentuckySEC0.280.12100.0094.790.280.10
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5747.24-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0039.44-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1262.5064.770.000.03
LibertyBSth0.510.1225.0034.77-0.25-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.1218.1844.62-0.18-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0028.26-0.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1170.0052.610.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1144.4456.51-0.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1144.4436.35-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.280.1160.0064.930.060.03
RutgersB101.070.1160.0035.070.21-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.280.1150.0046.150.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0033.84-0.00-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1122.2237.50-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0037.13-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1150.0053.700.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0920.0026.33-0.00-0.04
LafayettePat0.000.0975.0069.820.000.04
Loyola MDPat0.310.0933.3327.70-0.10-0.04
OregonP120.280.0966.6758.060.090.01
ArmyPat0.280.0977.7868.780.150.03
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0043.08-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0928.5731.23-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0920.0021.58-0.00-0.05
RichmondA100.000.0955.5657.090.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0910.0020.91-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.0910.0027.42-0.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.330.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.0980.0064.110.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0988.8955.910.000.01
HoustonAmer0.230.0971.4348.860.10-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6757.800.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0972.7367.180.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0937.5034.19-0.07-0.03
BrownIvy0.230.0940.0033.79-0.05-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0910.0018.58-0.22-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0988.8981.310.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.960.000.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0928.5757.26-0.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.0944.4449.65-0.03-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0936.3664.92-0.000.03
Seton HallBE0.540.0990.0067.260.430.03
Stony BrookAE0.280.0933.3354.74-0.090.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6754.660.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.350.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0977.7865.390.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0971.4357.100.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6772.340.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.0981.8264.110.180.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.080.0039.41-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.130.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0637.5047.71-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.280.0650.0057.510.000.01
DenverSum0.280.0650.0054.230.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4363.410.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
MarylandB100.250.0690.9167.660.200.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.280.060.0011.87-0.28-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.0633.3349.71-0.08-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.400.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
IndianaB100.280.0680.0057.630.170.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.310.0625.0042.64-0.16-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.59-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0662.5066.700.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.710.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2933.32-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.830.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.32-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.180.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.17-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.20-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.870.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.77-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.230.0690.0078.050.180.03
Penn St.B100.230.0690.9153.850.190.00
UC IrvineBW0.230.0637.5046.78-0.06-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8643.10-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.0666.6777.030.090.03
GonzagaWCC0.280.0690.0090.940.220.05
VCUA100.250.0670.0071.420.100.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.24-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.230.0655.5661.390.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.74-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.230.0614.2930.74-0.16-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.81-0.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.620.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.280.0357.1464.620.040.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.280.0355.5654.360.030.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
ArizonaP120.310.03100.0080.590.310.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0053.820.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.93-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0371.4361.370.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.007.84-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5634.940.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0377.7873.370.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.58-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.240.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.020.000.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0330.0029.80-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.250.0366.6766.340.080.01
GeorgetownBE0.280.0366.6759.460.090.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.43-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.69-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.730.140.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.420.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.310.0320.0041.46-0.19-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.960.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0344.4448.88-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.230.0350.0051.050.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
LamarSlnd0.280.0314.2934.12-0.20-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.57-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0372.7373.150.000.01
SMUAmer0.280.0370.0071.330.110.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.0344.4444.78-0.03-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.410.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02