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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:65.3
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:8
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1020.60.15%
19-1127.91.59%
18-1239.48.01%
17-1352.521.70%
16-1464.532.38%
15-1576.825.84%
14-1690.59.31%
13-17105.21.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13High Point (197.9)BSthH77-73W100%0.0
11-19Utah (30.0)P12N63-73L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (177.4)SECN74-72W100%0.0
11-22Minnesota (244.7)B10N81-68W100%0.0
11-28Hawaii (89.4)BWH82-74W100%0.0
12-2Sam Houston St. (188.8)SlndH71-56W100%0.0
12-9Tennessee Martin (241.8)OVCH68-49W100%0.0
12-16South Dakota St. (41.1)SumH79-67W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.0)SWACH94-54W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas Little Rock (50.4)SBH65-53W100%0.0
12-29Richmond (108.5)A10H85-70W100%0.0
1-2Texas (27.6)B12H82-74W100%0.0
1-6Iowa St. (17.1)B12A76-69L0%0.0
1-9Kansas (5.9)B12H59-69L0%0.0
1-12Kansas St. (61.1)B12A83-70L0%0.0
1-16Baylor (29.7)B12H60-63L0%0.0
1-18TCU (166.0)B12A69-76W100%0.0
1-23West Virginia (8.7)B12H76-80L0%0.0
1-26Oklahoma (3.5)B12A91-67L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas (89.1)SECA75-68L0%0.0
2-3Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12H63-61W100%0.0
2-6Texas (27.6)B12A69-59L0%0.0
2-10Iowa St. (17.1)B12H0-041%-2.6
2-13Baylor (29.7)B12A0-025%-7.5
2-17Oklahoma (3.5)B12H0-029%-6.0
2-20Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A0-042%-2.1
2-23TCU (166.0)B12H0-081%9.4
2-27Kansas (5.9)B12A0-012%-12.8
3-2West Virginia (8.7)B12A0-010%-13.7
3-5Kansas St. (61.1)B12H0-056%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.2126.3253.4148.181.79-0.96
Oklahoma St.B122.964.2947.8343.18-0.13-0.58
TCUB122.914.2347.8341.36-0.13-0.73
West VirginiaB122.814.2381.8278.511.792.41
OklahomaB122.874.2386.3682.402.092.74
Iowa St.B122.814.2372.7369.381.281.64
Kansas St.B122.774.2059.0957.420.500.62
TexasB124.994.2068.1863.061.811.10
BaylorB122.764.2071.4364.941.181.25
KansasB122.764.2080.9576.431.712.22
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.431.8125.0026.51-1.21-0.85
MinnesotaB102.371.7527.2728.77-1.08-0.74
Mississippi St.SEC2.371.7542.8642.05-0.34-0.28
HawaiiBW2.371.7588.8984.851.841.22
South Dakota St.Sum2.371.7580.9579.721.471.04
Tennessee MartinOVC2.371.7550.0051.930.000.07
ArkansasSEC2.321.7250.0054.470.000.15
RichmondA102.321.7257.1456.370.330.22
Arkansas Little RockSB2.271.6795.0089.992.051.33
High PointBSth2.271.6757.8959.780.360.33
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.271.6747.3751.32-0.120.04
UtahP122.271.6768.1866.370.830.55
Texas A&MSEC0.400.3378.2678.050.220.18
VanderbiltSEC0.250.2256.5260.010.030.04
WashingtonP120.290.2265.2261.090.090.05
GeorgiaSEC0.210.2061.9056.690.050.03
FloridaSEC0.250.1965.2266.070.080.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1721.0527.79-0.09-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1745.4551.34-0.010.00
UMKCWAC0.250.1728.5732.70-0.11-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1772.7372.060.090.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.169.0917.12-0.12-0.11
MissouriSEC0.200.1634.7830.38-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.110.1572.7371.620.050.06
LongwoodBSth0.160.1522.7324.96-0.08-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1550.0049.770.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1439.1341.12-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1442.8639.19-0.02-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1431.8236.15-0.08-0.04
South DakotaSum0.150.1441.6741.24-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1440.9136.60-0.02-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1442.8646.36-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.150.1465.2260.250.050.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1465.2259.020.030.02
StanfordP120.240.1450.0046.620.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1445.4554.11-0.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.150.1447.8346.89-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.140.1354.1749.230.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1272.2275.580.050.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1235.0034.72-0.03-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1276.1972.290.080.05
CaliforniaP120.210.1165.2262.840.060.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1117.6526.67-0.10-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1163.6462.150.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1154.1755.070.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1126.0929.19-0.07-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1166.6770.550.050.05
HarvardIvy0.100.1135.0038.49-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.150.1182.6179.220.100.06
Oregon St.P120.150.1161.9056.420.040.01
Washington St.P120.100.1136.3631.98-0.03-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1115.0026.98-0.10-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.150.1170.8369.500.060.04
Saint LouisA100.100.1136.3633.47-0.03-0.04
KentuckySEC0.150.1173.9171.560.070.05
Michigan St.B100.150.1183.3383.030.100.07
ColoradoP120.100.1169.5765.360.040.03
George MasonA100.100.1134.7834.14-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.100.1145.8344.12-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.140.1169.5766.240.060.04
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1139.1337.73-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1150.0054.210.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1114.2920.64-0.07-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.140.1182.6178.660.090.06
SouthernSWAC0.150.1161.9065.300.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0960.0060.100.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0925.0026.86-0.05-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.0942.8650.39-0.020.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0923.8126.57-0.06-0.04
IPFWSum0.100.0970.8368.570.040.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0956.5256.320.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0952.9452.160.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0917.6529.21-0.07-0.04
SMUAmer0.100.0890.9186.160.090.06
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0854.1750.940.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0828.5726.96-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0838.1037.70-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0856.5253.240.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0860.8755.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0820.0022.32-0.06-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0852.0050.240.000.00
TulsaAmer0.100.0865.2261.430.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0859.0953.040.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0886.3679.140.040.05
Chicago St.WAC0.100.084.357.73-0.09-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.089.0912.25-0.08-0.06
IowaB100.050.0882.6180.590.030.05
Rhode IslandA100.100.0856.5256.630.010.01
StetsonASun0.100.0823.8127.69-0.05-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0840.0040.30-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0870.8370.840.040.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.0645.4547.56-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.110.0634.7836.50-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0650.0051.290.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0665.0063.440.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.120.0630.0034.56-0.05-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5728.54-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0630.0029.25-0.02-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.0618.1821.06-0.07-0.04
UC DavisBW0.060.0640.0036.76-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.100.0654.1751.800.010.00
IUPUISum0.100.0640.0039.79-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.0665.0069.270.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0640.9143.53-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.080.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.750.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.70-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.66-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.0633.3334.19-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.79-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0638.8938.50-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.0623.8126.67-0.06-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0668.1866.690.040.02
CreightonBE0.050.0662.5059.800.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.950.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0655.0052.260.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.430.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0639.1338.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.100.0679.1774.020.060.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.17-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.780.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0681.8276.750.060.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.300.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.620.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0666.6763.440.030.01
RutgersB100.000.0621.7420.35-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.0663.6459.840.030.01
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.910.020.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.360.040.04
DaytonA100.050.0586.3682.380.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.0543.4840.57-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0554.1751.850.010.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.5012.85-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.870.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0586.9686.690.040.04
ColgatePat0.050.0543.4844.80-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0552.3850.420.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0566.6765.220.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0573.9172.490.050.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0521.7423.39-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0550.0051.180.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.1733.74-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0547.3749.98-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0533.3335.08-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.090.0541.6742.60-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0552.1754.150.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0565.2259.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0513.6413.62-0.07-0.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.6178.070.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0536.8442.90-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0528.5733.37-0.04-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.0018.08-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0365.2266.170.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0327.2731.06-0.03-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.860.020.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.93-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.71-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0355.0054.530.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.19-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3333.02-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0372.0070.510.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0352.1751.940.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.73-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.54-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.00-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.29-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.35-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0366.6762.630.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.45-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0379.1778.350.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0354.1751.640.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.00
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.700.020.01
DuquesneA100.000.0363.6456.440.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.850.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.700.000.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.17-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.790.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.510.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.890.030.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.950.020.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.31-0.02-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.050.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.230.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.630.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.160.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.570.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0361.9059.450.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6245.00-0.00-0.00