Texas Tech

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	233.7
Current RPI:	232
Expected SOS:	68
Current SOS:	99
Current Record:	7-15
Expected Record:	8-22
Current Conf Record:	0-10
Expected Conf Record:	1-17
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	227
Expected OOC SOS:	303

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	184.5	0.23%
10-20	202.9	2.23%
9-21	217.7	15.40%
8-22	231.3	41.45%
7-23	244.3	40.68%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	90-85	W	100%	0.0
11-16	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	69-64	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	H	66-54	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	N	60-49	L	0%	0.0
11-25	DePaul (187.2)	BE	N	76-70	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	N	61-70	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	54-61	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	75-69	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	87-59	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	72-56	L	0%	0.0
12-27	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)	ind	H	74-58	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	H	62-54	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	A	67-59	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Baylor (6.8)	B12	H	60-73	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Kansas (8.8)	B12	H	46-81	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	A	67-54	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	A	64-55	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	H	52-76	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	H	47-69	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	63-50	L	0%	0.0
1-31	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	H	63-80	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	74-57	L	0%	0.0
2-7	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	A	0-0		3%	-20.7
2-11	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	H	0-0		23%	-8.0
2-14	Texas A&M (154.9)	B12	H	0-0		32%	-5.0
2-18	Kansas (8.8)	B12	A	0-0		1%	-27.4
2-22	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	0-0		5%	-18.3
2-25	Texas (58.4)	B12	H	0-0		10%	-14.2
2-27	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	0-0		2%	-23.4
3-3	Missouri (11.7)	B12	H	0-0		5%	-18.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Tech	B12	26.26	26.35	26.04	20.79	-12.58	-15.39
Texas A&M	B12	2.90	4.27	50.00	43.35	0.00	-0.57
Texas	B12	2.84	4.25	59.09	59.04	0.52	0.77
Oklahoma St.	B12	5.01	4.24	40.00	36.47	-1.00	-1.15
Oklahoma	B12	2.83	4.24	57.14	52.29	0.40	0.19
Iowa St.	B12	2.78	4.22	72.73	66.41	1.26	1.38
Kansas	B12	2.73	4.22	77.27	76.92	1.49	2.27
Missouri	B12	2.78	4.22	90.91	86.45	2.28	3.07
Baylor	B12	2.84	4.21	90.48	82.75	2.30	2.76
Kansas St.	B12	2.78	4.21	71.43	66.12	1.19	1.36
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.56	1.88	19.05	21.86	-1.58	-1.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.44	1.81	50.00	52.78	0.00	0.10
North Texas	SB	2.43	1.78	52.63	52.01	0.13	0.07
Grambling	SWAC	2.38	1.73	15.79	16.31	-1.63	-1.16
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.39	1.73	29.41	30.76	-0.98	-0.66
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.32	1.72	80.00	80.11	1.39	1.04
Troy	SB	2.33	1.70	30.00	31.38	-0.93	-0.63
Texas Christian	MWC	2.33	1.70	55.00	47.74	0.23	-0.08
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.27	1.67	50.00	49.71	0.00	-0.01
DePaul	BE	2.27	1.67	47.62	40.86	-0.11	-0.30
Indiana St.	MVC	2.27	1.67	54.55	52.59	0.21	0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	2.27	1.67	45.45	41.72	-0.21	-0.28
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.34	0.29	26.32	29.79	-0.16	-0.12
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.34	0.29	76.19	75.94	0.18	0.15
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.32	0.27	57.14	60.75	0.05	0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.33	0.24	8.70	8.99	-0.27	-0.20
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.22	0.23	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.26	0.22	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.23	0.21	22.22	27.62	-0.13	-0.09
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.22	0.20	35.00	40.78	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.31	0.19	56.52	55.20	0.04	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.20	0.19	65.22	65.17	0.06	0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.16	0.18	25.00	23.75	-0.08	-0.09
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.22	0.18	78.26	72.34	0.12	0.08
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.26	0.17	17.39	24.41	-0.17	-0.09
Missouri St.	MVC	0.25	0.17	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.16	0.16	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.15	61.90	67.23	0.04	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.15	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.23	0.15	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.17	0.15	19.05	25.52	-0.10	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.21	0.14	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.14	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.13	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.12	27.78	29.87	-0.06	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.22	0.12	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.16	0.12	70.83	72.23	0.07	0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.12	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.12	19.05	24.61	-0.10	-0.06
Southern Utah	Sum	0.15	0.12	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.12	69.57	65.15	0.07	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.12	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.22	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.05	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.12	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.11	81.82	81.03	0.10	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.11	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.11	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.11	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.11	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.15	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.11	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.08
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.11	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.07
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.11	18.18	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.11	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.11	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.11	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.10	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.10	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.10	83.33	84.76	0.11	0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.05	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.15	0.09	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.09	43.48	43.31	-0.02	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.10	0.09	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.09	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.09	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.08	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.08	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.08	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.08	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.08	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.08	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.08	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.08	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.08	-0.06
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.08	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.06	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.06	35.00	37.47	-0.03	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.21	-0.02	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.05	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.04	0.05	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.04	0.05	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.05	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.05	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.05	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.04	0.05	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.00	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.04	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01