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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:68.9
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:61
Current SOS:270
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-411.50.06%
26-516.70.23%
25-620.40.69%
24-725.62.64%
23-832.45.56%
22-941.110.73%
21-1051.116.30%
20-1163.118.84%
19-1276.417.83%
18-1390.613.24%
17-14105.78.05%
16-15121.33.95%
15-16138.71.40%
14-17156.70.37%
13-18170.30.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndH93-67W100%0.0
11-15North Texas (300.2)CUSAH70-43W100%0.0
11-19Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH90-71W100%0.0
11-22Auburn (96.0)SECN67-65L0%0.0
11-23Utah St. (105.4)MWCN51-75W100%0.0
11-25Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyH91-58W100%0.0
11-30Incarnate Word (248.1)SlndH69-48W100%0.0
12-3Rice (102.7)CUSAH0-087%13.5
12-7UTSA (302.7)CUSAH0-098%25.9
12-14Nicholls St. (267.2)SlndH0-099%27.4
12-17Richmond (173.8)A10A0-077%8.8
12-21Longwood (325.2)BSthH0-099%30.7
12-30Iowa St. (31.7)B12A0-025%-8.0
1-3West Virginia (16.0)B12H0-029%-6.6
1-7Kansas (7.5)B12A0-019%-10.7
1-10Kansas St. (99.4)B12H0-070%6.5
1-14Oklahoma (70.0)B12A0-046%-1.3
1-18TCU (53.5)B12H0-067%5.2
1-21Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12H0-063%4.0
1-25Baylor (11.5)B12A0-027%-7.5
1-28LSU (94.2)SECH0-082%11.2
2-1Texas (135.5)B12A0-063%3.9
2-4Oklahoma (70.0)B12H0-066%4.9
2-7TCU (53.5)B12A0-047%-1.0
2-11Kansas (7.5)B12H0-035%-4.5
2-13Baylor (11.5)B12H0-046%-1.3
2-18West Virginia (16.0)B12A0-014%-12.7
2-20Iowa St. (31.7)B12H0-044%-1.8
2-25Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A0-043%-2.2
3-1Texas (135.5)B12H0-080%10.1
3-4Kansas St. (99.4)B12A0-051%0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1230.0126.3380.0059.4518.014.98
TexasB121.194.1150.0036.760.00-1.09
OklahomaB120.004.1083.3352.480.000.20
TCUB120.004.10100.0060.630.000.87
KansasB120.004.0885.7176.380.002.15
Kansas St.B120.004.0885.7157.040.000.57
West VirginiaB120.004.0883.3380.710.002.50
BaylorB120.004.07100.0075.210.002.05
Iowa St.B120.004.0771.4369.230.001.57
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0783.3357.240.000.59
Incarnate WordSlnd7.141.820.0039.50-7.14-0.38
AuburnSEC7.651.8080.0053.714.590.13
RiceCUSA2.081.7685.7171.011.490.74
Houston BaptistSlnd7.141.740.0040.12-7.14-0.34
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.7142.8638.64-0.00-0.39
North TexasCUSA7.141.7050.0031.940.00-0.61
Idaho St.BSky8.251.6716.6730.87-5.50-0.64
UTSACUSA0.001.6728.5729.42-0.00-0.69
Eastern KentuckyOVC8.251.6750.0048.450.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.001.6671.4350.880.000.03
Utah St.MWC7.651.6460.0055.541.530.18
LongwoodBSth0.001.6125.0025.59-0.00-0.79
RichmondA100.001.6157.1449.480.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.2450.0058.600.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.24100.0069.770.000.10
UABCUSA0.000.2157.1461.940.000.05
LamarSlnd0.510.2160.0043.970.10-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.2125.0030.93-0.00-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.210.0034.01-0.00-0.07
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2033.3323.33-0.00-0.10
UNLVMWC0.000.2071.4349.590.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1966.6765.810.000.06
ArkansasSEC0.000.1983.3362.840.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1950.0056.430.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1825.0056.71-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1866.6754.380.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1825.0053.29-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1814.2929.15-0.00-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1740.0067.95-0.000.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1657.1467.020.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1666.6756.020.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1466.6751.090.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1350.0027.250.00-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.130.0019.30-0.00-0.08
VCUA100.000.1385.7178.150.000.08
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1371.4386.030.000.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1371.4346.010.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.1385.7156.490.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1366.6766.100.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0020.01-0.00-0.08
New MexicoMWC1.400.1271.4358.670.600.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1125.0033.54-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1116.6733.69-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1120.0034.39-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1183.3359.600.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.1160.0058.950.100.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1125.0043.26-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.510.1142.8634.17-0.07-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1120.0048.38-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1133.3336.31-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1150.0064.840.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1183.3361.490.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1157.1447.320.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1116.6740.71-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1166.6751.460.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1187.5075.320.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.1183.3368.880.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0024.77-0.00-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1112.5048.98-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0086.250.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.000.1025.0034.47-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0039.35-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1071.4356.050.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0985.7159.740.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0058.980.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.080.0028.15-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0885.7173.010.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0820.0054.94-0.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0883.3375.060.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0871.4366.220.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0850.0062.460.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0833.3346.81-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0857.1464.940.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.080.0033.58-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0833.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0816.6732.62-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3338.76-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.080.0034.18-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0825.0039.28-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0833.3326.75-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.000.080.0021.15-0.00-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.600.0671.4368.660.260.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0616.6736.35-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
NJITASun1.110.0642.8650.32-0.160.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.02
PurdueB101.190.0571.4374.450.510.03
Georgia St.SB1.110.0560.0067.410.220.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0514.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.280.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0585.7180.960.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0021.30-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0557.1443.680.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0557.1444.160.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0091.060.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0550.0066.170.000.02
IowaB100.000.0542.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0061.590.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0585.7180.010.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0024.19-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0557.1469.300.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0525.0056.92-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0540.0027.05-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0560.0039.200.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
North FloridaASun0.600.0514.2931.71-0.43-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0533.3348.71-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0557.1442.660.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0550.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0520.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0550.0052.140.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0528.5750.51-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0571.4363.570.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0082.550.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0516.6718.96-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0022.69-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.890.0371.4363.090.380.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
DrexelCAA0.710.0342.8636.82-0.10-0.01
HartfordAE0.710.0312.5022.55-0.54-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.710.0316.6727.03-0.48-0.01
RutgersB100.710.0383.3344.770.48-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.600.0350.0054.690.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
IUPUISum0.510.0328.5747.72-0.22-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.510.0383.3377.170.340.02
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.600.0333.3338.20-0.20-0.01