Texas Tech

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	214.0
Current RPI:	214
Expected SOS:	98
Current SOS:	98
Current Record:	11-20
Expected Record:	11-20
Current Conf Record:	4-16
Expected Conf Record:	4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	275
Expected OOC SOS:	318

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-20	214.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	89-79	W	100%
11-14	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	91-63	W	100%
11-20	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	91-56	W	100%
11-26	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	84-75	W	100%
12-1	Arizona (16.0)	P12	H	57-85	L	0%
12-4	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	75-69	W	100%
12-16	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	75-80	L	0%
12-19	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	H	62-66	L	0%
12-22	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	H	62-77	L	0%
12-28	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	85-74	W	100%
12-31	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	70-56	W	100%
1-5	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	53-62	W	100%
1-8	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	48-82	L	0%
1-12	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	46-60	L	0%
1-16	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	81-63	L	0%
1-19	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	79-45	L	0%
1-23	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	56-51	W	100%
1-26	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	73-57	L	0%
2-2	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	61-77	L	0%
2-5	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	H	59-68	L	0%
2-9	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	75-48	L	0%
2-13	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	67-91	L	0%
2-16	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	66-64	L	0%
2-20	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	71-86	L	0%
2-23	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	86-66	L	0%
2-25	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	75-55	L	0%
3-2	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	H	72-63	W	100%
3-4	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	79-42	L	0%
3-9	Texas (116.0)	B12	H	69-71	L	0%
3-13	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	N	69-71	W	100%
3-14	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	91-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Tech	B12	26.45	26.45	27.27	27.27	-12.02	-12.02
Kansas	B12	5.80	5.80	83.87	83.87	3.93	3.93
West Virginia	B12	5.74	5.74	37.93	37.93	-1.39	-1.39
Iowa St.	B12	4.31	4.31	67.74	67.74	1.53	1.53
Kansas St.	B12	4.30	4.30	77.42	77.42	2.36	2.36
Oklahoma	B12	4.25	4.25	62.07	62.07	1.03	1.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	4.23	4.23	73.33	73.33	1.97	1.97
Texas	B12	4.23	4.23	46.67	46.67	-0.28	-0.28
Baylor	B12	4.20	4.20	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Texas Christian	B12	4.20	4.20	34.48	34.48	-1.30	-1.30
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.81	1.81	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.80	1.80	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.75	1.75	54.55	54.55	0.16	0.16
Grambling	SWAC	1.72	1.72	0.00	0.00	-1.72	-1.72
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.71	1.71	21.43	21.43	-0.98	-0.98
Arizona St.	P12	1.69	1.69	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Arizona	P12	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.66	1.66	35.71	35.71	-0.47	-0.47
Alabama	SEC	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	37.04	37.04	-0.42	-0.42
Northern Kentucky	ASun	1.61	1.61	42.31	42.31	-0.25	-0.25
Southern	SWAC	0.29	0.29	68.97	68.97	0.11	0.11
Gonzaga	WCC	0.28	0.28	93.75	93.75	0.24	0.24
Colorado	P12	0.25	0.25	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.24	0.24	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
UCLA	P12	0.23	0.23	73.53	73.53	0.11	0.11
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.22	0.22	17.86	17.86	-0.14	-0.14
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.20	0.20	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	28.12	28.12	-0.08	-0.08
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.18	0.18	9.68	9.68	-0.15	-0.15
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.14	0.14	85.19	85.19	0.10	0.10
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.02	0.02	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01