live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:36.0
Current RPI:36
Expected SOS:10
Current SOS:10
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:14
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1236.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13High Point (158.0)BSthH77-73W100%0.0
11-19Utah (8.0)P12N63-73L0%0.0
11-20Mississippi St. (154.0)SECN74-72W100%0.0
11-22Minnesota (257.0)B10N81-68W100%0.0
11-28Hawaii (80.0)BWH82-74W100%0.0
12-2Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndH71-56W100%0.0
12-9Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH68-49W100%0.0
12-16South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH79-67W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH94-54W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH65-53W100%0.0
12-29Richmond (121.0)A10H85-70W100%0.0
1-2Texas (27.0)B12H82-74W100%0.0
1-6Iowa St. (23.0)B12A76-69L0%0.0
1-9Kansas (1.0)B12H59-69L0%0.0
1-12Kansas St. (92.0)B12A83-70L0%0.0
1-16Baylor (25.0)B12H60-63L0%0.0
1-18TCU (174.0)B12A69-76W100%0.0
1-23West Virginia (10.0)B12H76-80L0%0.0
1-26Oklahoma (6.0)B12A91-67L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas (133.0)SECA75-68L0%0.0
2-3Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H63-61W100%0.0
2-6Texas (27.0)B12A69-59L0%0.0
2-10Iowa St. (23.0)B12H85-82W100%0.0
2-13Baylor (25.0)B12A66-84W100%0.0
2-17Oklahoma (6.0)B12H65-63W100%0.0
2-20Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A61-71W100%0.0
2-23TCU (174.0)B12H83-79W100%0.0
2-27Kansas (1.0)B12A67-58L0%0.0
3-2West Virginia (10.0)B12A90-68L0%0.0
3-5Kansas St. (92.0)B12H80-71W100%0.0
3-9TCU (174.0)B12N62-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3326.3358.4058.404.424.42
TCUB125.715.7136.6736.67-1.52-1.52
West VirginiaB124.274.2775.0075.002.132.13
KansasB124.224.2287.1087.103.133.13
Oklahoma St.B124.194.1940.0040.00-0.84-0.84
OklahomaB124.194.1980.0080.002.512.51
Kansas St.B124.174.1751.6151.610.130.13
BaylorB124.174.1766.6766.671.391.39
Iowa St.B124.144.1466.6766.671.381.38
TexasB124.124.1263.3363.331.101.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.741.7425.0025.00-0.87-0.87
South Dakota St.Sum1.711.7180.0080.001.031.03
MinnesotaB101.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
Mississippi St.SEC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
HawaiiBW1.691.6986.2186.211.221.22
ArkansasSEC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
RichmondA101.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB1.611.6190.0090.001.291.29
High PointBSth1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.611.6153.5753.570.120.12
UtahP121.611.6175.0075.000.810.81
Texas A&MSEC0.300.3076.4776.470.160.16
WashingtonP120.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
FloridaSEC0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
LongwoodBSth0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
MissouriSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1332.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1020.8320.83-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
George MasonA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Saint LouisA100.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0856.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01