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Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:316
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-511.00.01%
23-718.80.12%
22-822.90.62%
21-929.71.98%
20-1039.54.75%
19-1151.99.76%
18-1266.015.80%
17-1381.720.20%
16-1498.718.85%
15-15115.814.81%
14-16133.68.12%
13-17151.13.64%
12-18170.01.12%
11-19181.90.20%
10-20197.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola MD (294.6)PatH71-59W100%0.0
11-18LSU (68.4)SECA69-64L0%0.0
11-22Missouri St. (192.1)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern St. (265.3)SlndH75-64W100%0.0
11-30Air Force (108.7)MWCH63-62W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (186.5)SECH46-44W100%0.0
12-10Fresno St. (258.4)MWCH73-56W100%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (285.5)SWACH79-51W100%0.0
12-17South Carolina St. (307.1)MEACH101-39W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (295.9)SWACH72-51W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Chicago (117.2)MVCN0-065%4.5
12-29North Texas (242.4)CUSAH0-093%17.1
1-3Texas (5.4)B12H0-024%-8.4
1-5West Virginia (23.4)B12H0-045%-1.6
1-10Kansas (7.8)B12A0-017%-11.0
1-14Kansas St. (133.5)B12A0-049%-0.2
1-17TCU (66.4)B12H0-055%1.4
1-21Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12A0-022%-9.2
1-24Iowa St. (37.1)B12H0-050%-0.0
1-28Oklahoma (18.5)B12A0-015%-12.0
1-31West Virginia (23.4)B12A0-019%-10.3
2-4Kansas St. (133.5)B12H0-077%8.5
2-7Iowa St. (37.1)B12A0-023%-8.7
2-10Kansas (7.8)B12H0-042%-2.2
2-14Texas (5.4)B12A0-07%-17.2
2-17Baylor (10.4)B12H0-036%-4.3
2-21Oklahoma (18.5)B12H0-039%-3.3
2-25TCU (66.4)B12A0-027%-7.4
2-28Oklahoma St. (28.6)B12H0-048%-0.5
3-6Baylor (10.4)B12A0-013%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1227.9826.3490.0049.3622.38-0.33
Oklahoma St.B120.284.2688.8963.790.221.18
OklahomaB120.504.2477.7866.930.281.44
TCUB120.284.24100.0067.440.281.48
West VirginiaB120.254.2490.0067.400.201.48
BaylorB120.284.2490.0073.680.222.01
KansasB120.004.2188.8969.150.001.61
Kansas St.B120.004.2160.0037.160.00-1.08
TexasB120.004.2190.0081.450.002.65
Iowa St.B120.004.2188.8963.390.001.13
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.001.920.0041.11-5.00-0.34
LSUSEC5.001.7877.7862.832.780.46
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC5.361.7620.0039.73-3.21-0.36
North TexasCUSA0.001.7542.8638.06-0.00-0.42
Missouri St.MVC5.001.7342.8641.86-0.71-0.28
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.7375.0060.900.000.38
Air ForceMWC5.231.7266.6763.951.740.48
Northwestern St.Slnd5.001.720.0038.38-5.00-0.40
AuburnSEC5.001.7250.0037.150.00-0.44
Fresno St.MWC5.001.7033.3330.65-1.67-0.66
Loyola MDPat5.001.6737.5028.55-1.25-0.71
South Carolina St.MEAC5.001.6722.2231.06-2.78-0.63
Texas A&MSEC0.500.2577.7865.880.280.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.2510.0018.50-0.00-0.16
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.2511.1144.75-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.2333.3332.70-0.00-0.08
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2266.6766.120.000.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.220.0034.05-0.00-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.2025.0048.53-0.13-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.360.200.009.00-0.36-0.16
MissouriSEC0.000.2044.4431.92-0.00-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1955.5645.620.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.1866.6777.530.090.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1820.0045.49-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.1820.0020.26-0.00-0.11
ArkansasSEC0.000.1777.7871.770.000.08
TulsaAmer0.590.1760.0056.900.120.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.160.0028.56-0.00-0.07
LafayettePat0.000.1675.0070.210.000.07
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0095.110.000.15
EvansvilleMVC0.250.1577.7871.170.140.06
Colorado St.MWC0.310.15100.0078.490.310.08
UNLVMWC0.000.1475.0049.970.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.1442.8637.71-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1418.1827.79-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1416.6744.58-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.280.1416.6726.71-0.19-0.07
MemphisAmer0.280.1455.5660.240.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1466.6754.650.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1462.5059.500.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1460.0064.140.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1470.0052.530.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1266.6764.740.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3333.03-0.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1290.0078.440.000.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1254.5544.640.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.540.000.09
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1220.0046.54-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1275.0069.170.000.05
NevadaMWC0.000.1211.1125.05-0.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1270.0058.740.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1270.0073.030.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.007.81-0.00-0.10
Utah St.MWC0.000.1260.0052.190.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.310.1244.4445.51-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1250.0047.740.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.1190.9167.370.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.1150.0045.370.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.230.1172.7373.190.100.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1114.2929.35-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0028.67-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1133.3363.11-0.000.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1175.0060.310.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1125.0026.38-0.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.1172.7362.430.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1122.2242.00-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1150.0039.610.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1150.0057.700.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1140.0050.17-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0018.32-0.00-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1016.6719.31-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0940.0046.66-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.780.0957.1470.410.110.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.250.0950.0073.610.000.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0914.2933.59-0.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.360.0977.7868.880.200.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0977.7873.540.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0954.5559.120.000.02
WashingtonP120.250.09100.0071.400.250.04
Old DominionCUSA0.250.0990.0081.790.200.05
CreightonBE0.000.0975.0051.760.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0933.3334.61-0.09-0.03
Oregon St.P120.280.0977.7855.570.150.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0875.0059.530.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.360.0844.4455.60-0.040.01
ButlerBE0.280.0880.0072.370.170.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0825.0038.65-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.310.0840.0028.84-0.06-0.04
CaliforniaP120.250.0890.9168.690.200.03
Texas St.SB0.280.0850.0050.060.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.250.0828.5742.44-0.11-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0875.0057.490.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0017.19-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.500.0672.7367.410.230.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.0618.1831.71-0.16-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0638.4644.31-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.0642.8652.90-0.040.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0063.510.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.320.000.03
ColoradoP120.630.0666.6757.620.210.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0064.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3342.54-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.30-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.07-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.100.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0637.5047.68-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.61-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0642.8626.94-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.250.0630.0036.94-0.10-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.480.069.0929.87-0.39-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0662.5071.350.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.120.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3665.17-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.32-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.230.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.540.000.04
ClemsonACC0.530.0560.0044.120.11-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0082.300.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0566.6742.760.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0522.2231.52-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.590.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0522.2238.12-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.59-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0581.8264.670.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0555.5656.260.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0533.3343.01-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0566.6752.850.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0572.7363.770.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0555.5659.230.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.430.000.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0053.130.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0062.120.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0563.6455.560.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0015.18-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0537.5064.18-0.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0555.5655.500.000.01
UtahP120.000.0577.7879.680.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0555.5638.620.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.93-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7875.790.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.24-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.680.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.500.0333.3345.26-0.17-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.59-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.67-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.680.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.250.030.0012.00-0.25-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.06-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0366.6762.500.080.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4550.81-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.03-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1836.00-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.34-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4469.77-0.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0350.0053.240.000.00
The CitadelSC0.360.0316.6730.30-0.24-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.090.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0385.7161.910.000.01
VirginiaACC0.250.03100.0085.760.250.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.0342.8638.37-0.04-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.310.0333.3339.29-0.10-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.270.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.85-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.110.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.800.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.310.0344.4446.81-0.03-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.770.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.280.0340.0033.52-0.06-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.250.0342.8638.86-0.04-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.280.0362.5064.770.070.01
CornellIvy0.280.0355.5648.170.03-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0337.5038.43-0.06-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4440.07-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.250.0310.0018.65-0.20-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.0337.5038.31-0.07-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0336.3647.56-0.07-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0038.110.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.250.0375.0057.990.130.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0355.5640.440.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.280.0333.3348.90-0.09-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.14-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.280.0366.6758.330.090.00
UC IrvineBW0.250.0337.5046.89-0.06-0.00
UMBCAE0.280.0310.0020.97-0.22-0.02
WinthropBSth0.280.0325.0044.57-0.14-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0380.0070.970.000.01
AkronMAC0.230.0360.0056.170.050.00
Central MichiganMAC0.230.0385.7170.370.160.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.250.0337.5050.60-0.060.00
HawaiiBW0.230.0366.6754.760.080.00
High PointBSth0.230.0362.5056.220.060.00
HoustonAmer0.230.0371.4347.640.10-0.00
MassachusettsA100.250.0360.0055.280.050.00
OhioMAC0.230.0342.8637.74-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.230.0380.0070.970.140.01