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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:233.7
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:99
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:0-10
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:227
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19184.50.23%
10-20202.92.23%
9-21217.715.40%
8-22231.341.45%
7-23244.340.68%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Troy (274.9)SBH90-85W100%0.0
11-16North Texas (203.3)SBH69-64W100%0.0
11-20Stephen F. Austin (244.7)SlndH66-54W100%0.0
11-24Indiana St. (133.0)MVCN60-49L0%0.0
11-25DePaul (187.2)BEN76-70L0%0.0
11-27Wake Forest (171.6)ACCN61-70L0%0.0
12-1Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)SlndA54-61W100%0.0
12-6Texas Christian (123.7)MWCA75-69L0%0.0
12-18Grambling (341.3)SWACH87-59W100%0.0
12-22Oral Roberts (43.6)SumA72-56L0%0.0
12-27Cal St. Bakersfield (210.9)indH74-58W100%0.0
12-30Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)SlndH62-54W100%0.0
1-4Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A67-59L0%0.0
1-7Baylor (6.8)B12H60-73L0%0.0
1-11Kansas (8.8)B12H46-81L0%0.0
1-14Texas A&M (154.9)B12A67-54L0%0.0
1-17Oklahoma (89.8)B12A64-55L0%0.0
1-21Iowa St. (39.6)B12H52-76L0%0.0
1-25Kansas St. (45.9)B12H47-69L0%0.0
1-28Missouri (11.7)B12A63-50L0%0.0
1-31Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12H63-80L0%0.0
2-4Texas (58.4)B12A74-57L0%0.0
2-7Kansas St. (45.9)B12A0-03%-20.7
2-11Oklahoma (89.8)B12H0-023%-8.0
2-14Texas A&M (154.9)B12H0-032%-5.0
2-18Kansas (8.8)B12A0-01%-27.4
2-22Iowa St. (39.6)B12A0-05%-18.3
2-25Texas (58.4)B12H0-010%-14.2
2-27Baylor (6.8)B12A0-02%-23.4
3-3Missouri (11.7)B12H0-05%-18.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.2626.3526.0420.79-12.58-15.39
Texas A&MB122.904.2750.0043.350.00-0.57
TexasB122.844.2559.0959.040.520.77
Oklahoma St.B125.014.2440.0036.47-1.00-1.15
OklahomaB122.834.2457.1452.290.400.19
Iowa St.B122.784.2272.7366.411.261.38
KansasB122.734.2277.2776.921.492.27
MissouriB122.784.2290.9186.452.283.07
BaylorB122.844.2190.4882.752.302.76
Kansas St.B122.784.2171.4366.121.191.36
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.561.8819.0521.86-1.58-1.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.441.8150.0052.780.000.10
North TexasSB2.431.7852.6352.010.130.07
GramblingSWAC2.381.7315.7916.31-1.63-1.16
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.391.7329.4130.76-0.98-0.66
Oral RobertsSum2.321.7280.0080.111.391.04
TroySB2.331.7030.0031.38-0.93-0.63
Texas ChristianMWC2.331.7055.0047.740.23-0.08
Cal St. Bakersfieldind2.271.6750.0049.710.00-0.01
DePaulBE2.271.6747.6240.86-0.11-0.30
Indiana St.MVC2.271.6754.5552.590.210.09
Wake ForestACC2.271.6745.4541.72-0.21-0.28
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.340.2926.3229.79-0.16-0.12
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.340.2976.1975.940.180.15
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.320.2757.1460.750.050.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.330.248.708.99-0.27-0.20
Northwestern St.Slnd0.220.2355.0054.480.020.02
RiceCUSA0.260.2247.6246.46-0.01-0.02
Texas St.Slnd0.230.2122.2227.62-0.13-0.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.2035.0040.78-0.07-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.310.1956.5255.200.040.02
West VirginiaBE0.200.1965.2265.170.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1825.0023.75-0.08-0.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.1878.2672.340.120.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.1717.3924.41-0.17-0.09
Missouri St.MVC0.250.1754.1757.200.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.160.1633.3337.16-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.170.1561.9067.230.040.05
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.1536.3639.72-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.230.1545.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1519.0525.52-0.10-0.07
HoustonCUSA0.210.1447.6244.63-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1450.0058.160.000.02
Western KentuckySB0.170.1334.7834.48-0.05-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.1227.7829.87-0.06-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1241.1842.61-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.220.1252.3852.870.010.01
DenverSB0.160.1270.8372.230.070.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1243.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.160.1219.0524.61-0.10-0.06
Southern UtahSum0.150.1245.4544.30-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.170.1269.5765.150.070.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1216.6723.02-0.07-0.06
TulsaCUSA0.220.1260.8759.050.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1231.8242.13-0.04-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.160.1181.8281.030.100.07
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1185.7178.050.080.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1134.7832.06-0.03-0.04
St. John'sBE0.110.1143.4840.28-0.01-0.02
DrakeMVC0.150.1152.1750.090.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1162.5061.500.040.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.150.1138.1037.86-0.04-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.150.1168.1869.100.060.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1110.0014.93-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.100.1186.3683.090.070.07
HowardMEAC0.100.1118.1822.22-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1171.4373.350.040.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1170.8364.420.060.03
UCLAP120.100.1154.5556.790.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1037.5038.33-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1054.1754.750.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.170.1083.3384.760.110.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.0930.0037.30-0.05-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.150.0950.0056.760.000.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0982.6181.440.070.06
Texas El PasoCUSA0.120.0943.4843.31-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0930.0033.20-0.04-0.03
MississippiSEC0.160.0963.6456.710.040.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.0942.8641.13-0.01-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0945.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0947.6247.18-0.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.0950.0048.170.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.100.0863.6463.160.030.02
OaklandSum0.140.0848.0050.21-0.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0838.1042.78-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.100.0869.5765.470.040.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.0819.0521.29-0.06-0.05
PittsburghBE0.150.0860.8758.160.030.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0865.2263.740.030.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0825.0025.13-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0828.5734.20-0.02-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.0880.9577.380.060.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.088.7011.67-0.08-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.100.0886.9683.160.070.05
Notre DameBE0.050.0865.2262.650.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0856.5250.270.010.00
South FloridaBE0.100.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
VillanovaBE0.100.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.0652.3852.860.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.110.0659.0957.280.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0665.0066.700.030.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0621.0522.46-0.06-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0669.5768.900.040.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.050.0633.3338.38-0.02-0.01
PacificBW0.100.0635.0037.47-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0631.8232.75-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0638.8943.93-0.03-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0617.6527.10-0.04-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0666.6760.800.020.01
CreightonMVC0.050.0687.5085.410.040.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0682.6177.630.040.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0662.5062.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0627.2727.21-0.02-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0682.6180.420.060.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0676.1970.730.030.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0669.5761.310.040.01
NebraskaB100.100.0652.3846.680.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.800.030.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0630.4331.43-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0630.4326.44-0.02-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0655.0060.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0642.1149.81-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0634.7832.08-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0639.1342.12-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0633.3333.88-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0678.2672.660.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0620.0019.96-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0645.8346.68-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
St. LouisA100.050.0677.2777.670.030.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
StanfordP120.100.0669.5768.290.040.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0575.0074.610.020.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0576.1976.760.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0572.7364.430.020.02
IowaB100.050.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.040.0535.0035.31-0.01-0.02
IUPUISum0.040.0534.7835.50-0.01-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0595.8392.570.050.05
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
LipscombASun0.050.0543.4843.82-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0570.8371.640.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0572.7366.810.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0534.7835.20-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.050.059.5213.19-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0537.5041.54-0.01-0.01
North DakotaGWC0.050.0533.3341.31-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0561.9063.520.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.0031.54-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0586.9685.460.040.04
Old DominionCAA0.050.0560.0058.290.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0520.8320.60-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0526.3228.83-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0573.9175.490.040.03
TempleA100.050.0577.2775.060.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.054.005.26-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0534.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0552.6348.410.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0512.5013.44-0.04-0.04
BelmontASun0.050.0369.5773.280.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0355.0054.800.010.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0359.0957.760.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0330.0034.15-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.070.0369.5764.530.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.66-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0345.0041.76-0.00-0.01
NevadaWAC0.000.0380.9576.420.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0331.8233.83-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0327.2726.95-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0354.5557.690.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.000.00
ButlerHorz0.000.0350.0050.800.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0368.1869.680.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.034.769.95-0.05-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.000.0368.1863.990.000.01
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0334.7838.77-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0340.0041.30-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0379.1775.980.000.01
MarylandACC0.050.0359.0950.820.010.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0365.0060.020.000.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.02
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
AkronMAC0.000.0368.1867.910.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0333.3335.97-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0381.8281.490.030.02
XavierA100.040.0365.2263.740.010.01