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Through games of Mar 1, 2015.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:176.2
Current RPI:176
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:53
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:145
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17153.53.16%
13-18176.996.84%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola MD (262.9)PatH71-59W100%0.0
11-18LSU (41.7)SECA69-64L0%0.0
11-22Missouri St. (230.1)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern St. (172.9)SlndH75-64W100%0.0
11-30Air Force (246.0)MWCH63-62W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (152.4)SECH46-44W100%0.0
12-10Fresno St. (188.2)MWCH73-56W100%0.0
12-14Prairie View A&M (267.3)SWACH79-51W100%0.0
12-17South Carolina St. (320.6)MEACH101-39W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.3)SWACH72-51W100%0.0
12-22Loyola Chicago (127.9)MVCN44-62L0%0.0
12-23Houston (270.3)AmerN69-82L0%0.0
12-29North Texas (211.2)CUSAH60-45W100%0.0
1-3Texas (47.8)B12H61-70L0%0.0
1-5West Virginia (19.9)B12H67-78L0%0.0
1-10Kansas (2.8)B12A86-54L0%0.0
1-14Kansas St. (83.1)B12A58-51L0%0.0
1-17TCU (121.5)B12H42-62L0%0.0
1-21Oklahoma St. (42.5)B12A63-43L0%0.0
1-24Iowa St. (17.7)B12H78-73W100%0.0
1-28Oklahoma (15.2)B12A81-36L0%0.0
1-31West Virginia (19.9)B12A77-58L0%0.0
2-4Kansas St. (83.1)B12H64-47W100%0.0
2-7Iowa St. (17.7)B12A75-38L0%0.0
2-10Kansas (2.8)B12H51-73L0%0.0
2-14Texas (47.8)B12A56-41L0%0.0
2-17Baylor (9.5)B12H49-54L0%0.0
2-21Oklahoma (15.2)B12H75-79L0%0.0
2-25TCU (121.5)B12A71-54L0%0.0
2-28Oklahoma St. (42.5)B12H63-62W100%0.0
3-6Baylor (9.5)B12A0-03%-19.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3626.3233.0532.38-8.94-9.28
Oklahoma St.B124.154.1260.0059.230.830.76
OklahomaB124.134.1069.2368.211.591.49
TCUB124.124.1055.5654.190.460.34
West VirginiaB124.124.1074.0772.391.981.84
BaylorB122.574.1074.0773.111.241.89
KansasB124.094.0877.7875.982.272.12
Kansas St.B124.164.0850.0048.740.00-0.10
TexasB124.134.0855.5656.530.460.53
Iowa St.B124.094.0773.0872.021.891.79
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.901.8542.3144.44-0.29-0.21
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.791.7234.4835.64-0.56-0.49
LSUSEC1.781.7271.4370.380.760.70
North TexasCUSA1.761.7048.0046.07-0.07-0.13
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.731.6755.5655.560.190.19
Missouri St.MVC1.731.6733.3333.33-0.58-0.56
Northwestern St.Slnd1.731.6757.1457.070.250.24
Air ForceMWC1.691.6744.0043.70-0.20-0.21
HoustonAmer1.721.6733.3334.14-0.57-0.53
AuburnSEC1.721.6640.7440.25-0.32-0.32
Fresno St.MWC1.671.6446.1545.37-0.13-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC1.701.6429.6329.66-0.69-0.67
Loyola MDPat1.671.6139.2939.29-0.36-0.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.270.2717.2420.21-0.18-0.16
Texas A&MSEC0.240.2471.4369.990.100.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.230.2457.1459.490.030.04
BradleyMVC0.230.2223.3323.33-0.12-0.12
TulsaAmer0.240.2277.7875.110.130.11
South CarolinaSEC0.210.2248.1548.35-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.180.2144.4443.53-0.02-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.2034.7838.23-0.06-0.05
MemphisAmer0.180.1958.6256.820.030.03
MissouriSEC0.180.1925.0026.34-0.09-0.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.190.001.25-0.21-0.18
TennesseeSEC0.170.1850.0048.870.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1784.0084.150.090.12
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1729.6331.53-0.06-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.150.1774.0775.600.070.09
DrakeMVC0.180.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.160.1779.3178.080.090.09
RiceCUSA0.180.1632.0031.17-0.07-0.06
LafayettePat0.170.1657.1457.140.020.02
KentuckySEC0.170.16100.0099.560.170.16
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1615.3814.80-0.10-0.11
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1482.1481.280.100.09
EvansvilleMVC0.150.1462.0762.070.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1424.0023.51-0.08-0.07
UNLVMWC0.150.1453.5754.430.010.01
UTSACUSA0.120.1444.0045.85-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.140.1330.7731.72-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1326.9227.66-0.07-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.150.1357.1456.280.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1335.7138.37-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1367.8666.170.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1360.7160.300.030.03
FloridaSEC0.140.1348.2847.45-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.140.1365.5264.790.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1228.5731.49-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.130.1226.9225.66-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.130.1248.2848.79-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1275.0075.360.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.130.120.000.17-0.13-0.11
Utah St.MWC0.130.1262.9661.630.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1290.0090.000.100.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.120.1289.6689.660.090.09
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1153.5753.570.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1150.0050.770.000.00
MarylandB100.120.1182.7682.190.080.07
VanderbiltSEC0.090.1157.1457.450.010.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1165.5265.360.040.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1125.8125.81-0.06-0.05
George MasonA100.120.1129.6328.88-0.05-0.04
IowaB100.120.1165.5265.610.040.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1139.2940.08-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1039.2939.32-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1029.1730.80-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.1063.6464.230.020.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1042.8645.00-0.02-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0918.1820.75-0.07-0.05
LamarSlnd0.100.0945.8344.51-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0970.3768.780.040.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0975.0074.360.050.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0840.7442.15-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0878.5779.260.050.05
CreightonBE0.090.0844.8343.41-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0848.1548.96-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0865.3865.380.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.090.0857.1456.760.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0837.0437.66-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.090.0872.4171.600.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0840.7440.42-0.01-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0859.2659.120.010.01
WashingtonP120.090.0853.5752.320.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0864.2962.980.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0833.3331.68-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.090.0842.8641.46-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0858.6255.620.020.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0840.0040.15-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.090.0868.9768.620.030.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0841.6741.69-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.090.0864.2961.970.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.067.697.75-0.06-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0675.8676.580.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0633.3334.09-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0653.8555.410.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0644.8346.86-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0667.8669.220.010.02
ColoradoP120.060.0646.4346.72-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0629.6331.52-0.01-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.6757.710.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0526.9226.02-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0553.5754.380.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0524.1423.70-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0568.9768.270.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0567.8668.250.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0562.0761.980.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0562.9664.230.010.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0578.5778.530.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0525.0026.97-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0540.7440.68-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0560.0060.820.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0589.6687.980.050.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0537.0437.86-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0557.1455.070.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0560.7160.840.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0589.6689.930.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0535.7136.97-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0566.6765.970.020.02
LipscombASun0.060.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0554.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0558.6258.890.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0566.6766.670.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0562.0761.400.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0565.5264.180.020.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0564.2964.290.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0573.0872.290.030.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0567.7467.740.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0510.3410.34-0.05-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0553.8554.380.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0555.5655.060.010.01
UtahP120.060.0577.7878.800.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0534.4834.77-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0579.3179.310.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0361.9061.010.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0360.0059.390.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0353.8555.980.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0380.0079.420.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0342.8642.04-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0352.0052.010.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0340.7440.36-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0324.0025.00-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0361.5458.960.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.24-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.70-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.90-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0344.4444.54-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.56-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.030.0330.7731.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0370.8368.830.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0344.4444.03-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0346.1546.10-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0322.2222.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.450.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.690.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.90-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0362.0759.850.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.6958.360.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.4394.540.030.02
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.93-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0375.0075.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0385.7185.710.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0324.0024.53-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0360.0060.270.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0358.6257.160.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0360.7160.050.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0375.0073.770.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.19-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02