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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:98
Current SOS:98
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:104
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14124.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH93-67W100%0.0
11-15North Texas (339.0)CUSAH70-43W100%0.0
11-19Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH90-71W100%0.0
11-22Auburn (113.0)SECN67-65L0%0.0
11-23Utah St. (181.0)MWCN51-75W100%0.0
11-25Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH91-58W100%0.0
11-30Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH69-48W100%0.0
12-3Rice (167.0)CUSAH85-84W100%0.0
12-7UTSA (264.0)CUSAH87-50W100%0.0
12-14Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH89-46W100%0.0
12-17Richmond (80.0)A10A72-79W100%0.0
12-21Longwood (343.0)BSthH91-60W100%0.0
12-30Iowa St. (21.0)B12A63-56L0%0.0
1-3West Virginia (24.0)B12H77-76W100%0.0
1-7Kansas (4.0)B12A85-68L0%0.0
1-10Kansas St. (57.0)B12H66-65W100%0.0
1-14Oklahoma (168.0)B12A84-75L0%0.0
1-18TCU (67.0)B12H75-69W100%0.0
1-21Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H64-83L0%0.0
1-25Baylor (11.0)B12A65-61L0%0.0
1-28LSU (193.0)SECH77-64W100%0.0
2-1Texas (156.0)B12A62-58L0%0.0
2-4Oklahoma (168.0)B12H77-69W100%0.0
2-7TCU (67.0)B12A62-61L0%0.0
2-11Kansas (4.0)B12H79-80L0%0.0
2-13Baylor (11.0)B12H84-78W100%0.0
2-18West Virginia (24.0)B12A83-74L0%0.0
2-20Iowa St. (21.0)B12H80-82L0%0.0
2-25Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A80-63L0%0.0
3-1Texas (156.0)B12H67-57W100%0.0
3-4Kansas St. (57.0)B12A61-48L0%0.0
3-8Texas (156.0)B12N52-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3426.3450.8550.850.450.45
TexasB125.545.5430.0030.00-2.22-2.22
TCUB124.124.1254.8454.840.400.40
West VirginiaB124.124.1278.1278.122.322.32
Iowa St.B124.094.0967.7467.741.451.45
Kansas St.B124.044.0461.2961.290.910.91
OklahomaB124.014.0134.4834.48-1.25-1.25
KansasB123.993.9986.6786.672.932.93
Oklahoma St.B123.993.9958.6258.620.690.69
BaylorB123.993.9979.3179.312.342.34
Incarnate WordSlnd1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
AuburnSEC1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
RiceCUSA1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
Houston BaptistSlnd1.681.6852.0052.000.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd1.661.6638.4638.46-0.38-0.38
North TexasCUSA1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
UTSACUSA1.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Idaho St.BSky1.621.6213.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
LSUSEC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Utah St.MWC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
LongwoodBSth1.561.5614.8114.81-1.10-1.10
RichmondA101.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.230.2360.7160.710.050.05
UABCUSA0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
LamarSlnd0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
New OrleansSlnd0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1936.0036.00-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
MarylandB100.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1219.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
FIUCUSA0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
MissouriSEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
VMISC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00