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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:163.0
Current RPI:41
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:49
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:183
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-827.00.01%
21-951.40.08%
20-1059.80.33%
19-1172.11.30%
18-1289.13.23%
17-13107.67.02%
16-14125.211.29%
15-15144.616.70%
14-16163.918.85%
13-17182.016.94%
12-18199.412.22%
11-19215.57.25%
10-20231.63.04%
9-21248.01.20%
8-22260.10.43%
7-23277.00.08%
6-24284.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Loyola MD (265.4)PatH71-59W100%0.0
11-18LSU (72.8)SECA69-64L0%0.0
11-22Missouri St. (136.8)MVCH80-68W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern St. (181.5)SlndH0-074%7.6
11-30Air Force (198.9)MWCH0-071%6.7
12-3Auburn (155.3)SECH0-064%4.2
12-10Fresno St. (207.7)MWCH0-074%7.7
12-14Prairie View A&M (287.0)SWACH0-089%14.7
12-17South Carolina St. (290.5)MEACH0-091%16.0
12-19Arkansas Pine Bluff (325.7)SWACH0-095%19.8
12-22Loyola Chicago (238.4)MVCN0-071%6.7
12-29North Texas (220.9)CUSAH0-080%10.1
1-3Texas (6.8)B12H0-016%-12.2
1-5West Virginia (23.3)B12H0-030%-6.4
1-10Kansas (22.2)B12A0-013%-13.6
1-14Kansas St. (111.4)B12A0-026%-7.5
1-17TCU (158.4)B12H0-057%2.0
1-21Oklahoma St. (84.7)B12A0-024%-8.5
1-24Iowa St. (61.9)B12H0-037%-4.0
1-28Oklahoma (43.2)B12A0-015%-12.6
1-31West Virginia (23.3)B12A0-013%-13.6
2-4Kansas St. (111.4)B12H0-049%-0.4
2-7Iowa St. (61.9)B12A0-018%-11.2
2-10Kansas (22.2)B12H0-030%-6.4
2-14Texas (6.8)B12A0-05%-19.3
2-17Baylor (33.0)B12H0-032%-5.6
2-21Oklahoma (43.2)B12H0-032%-5.5
2-25TCU (158.4)B12A0-033%-5.1
2-28Oklahoma St. (84.7)B12H0-046%-1.3
3-6Baylor (33.0)B12A0-014%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1233.3326.3866.6738.9511.11-5.83
Oklahoma St.B120.004.30100.0052.370.000.20
West VirginiaB120.004.28100.0071.420.001.83
TCUB120.004.28100.0054.350.000.37
BaylorB120.004.27100.0066.800.001.44
OklahomaB120.004.2766.6761.300.000.97
TexasB120.004.25100.0080.950.002.63
Iowa St.B120.004.24100.0061.320.000.96
KansasB120.004.2450.0061.290.000.96
Kansas St.B120.004.2466.6749.220.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.001.920.0040.40-0.00-0.37
LSUSEC16.671.7866.6756.765.560.24
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.7620.0029.17-0.00-0.73
North TexasCUSA0.001.7666.6740.570.00-0.33
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.730.0038.06-0.00-0.41
Missouri St.MVC16.671.73100.0054.8016.670.17
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.730.0054.76-0.000.16
Air ForceMWC0.001.7250.0046.010.00-0.14
AuburnSEC0.001.7266.6741.150.00-0.30
Fresno St.MWC0.001.700.0033.15-0.00-0.57
Loyola MDPat16.671.6766.6733.525.56-0.55
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.670.0034.58-0.00-0.51
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2675.0069.220.000.10
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.260.0037.29-0.00-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.260.0019.05-0.00-0.16
BradleyMVC0.000.2433.3323.14-0.00-0.13
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2340.0049.19-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.230.0038.43-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.210.0043.51-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.2066.6746.610.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.200.0025.81-0.00-0.10
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.190.0035.17-0.00-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.180.0066.50-0.000.06
DrakeMVC0.000.180.0024.98-0.00-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.18100.0073.710.000.08
LafayettePat0.000.1775.0065.250.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.17100.0088.080.000.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.38-0.00-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.000.15100.0062.980.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.15100.0062.400.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1575.0051.200.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.150.0066.86-0.000.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1550.0037.730.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1450.0042.910.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1425.0040.26-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1433.3328.24-0.00-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.14100.0059.020.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1475.0056.300.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1466.6768.430.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1450.0042.760.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1475.0054.940.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1275.0063.000.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1266.6766.540.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1266.6749.820.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1233.3347.23-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1260.0056.390.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0071.230.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.12100.0081.220.000.08
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0017.40-0.00-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1240.0050.84-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1275.0061.320.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.12100.0084.310.000.08
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0032.53-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1233.3348.17-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1266.6752.480.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1250.0046.140.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0017.97-0.00-0.07
UMKCWAC0.000.1125.0044.56-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.11100.0050.370.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0041.94-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0063.27-0.000.03
George MasonA100.000.1120.0021.84-0.00-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1140.0054.34-0.000.01
IowaB100.000.1150.0065.830.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1125.0050.35-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1175.0070.770.000.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0033.26-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0028.04-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0070.560.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0064.030.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0033.64-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0063.150.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3344.23-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.730.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0066.600.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0975.0067.590.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0966.6747.490.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0065.55-0.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0033.50-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA2.080.0975.0070.901.040.04
Weber St.BSky2.080.090.0051.68-2.080.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3346.72-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0875.0069.780.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0866.6752.830.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0866.6748.940.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0875.0070.150.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0021.40-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0071.590.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.44-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.880.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0038.29-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.560.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0060.180.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0028.32-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0048.750.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0065.190.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.060.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.100.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0054.200.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3343.07-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.690.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3361.17-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0036.00-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.47-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.770.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0058.69-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.820.000.02
LehighPat0.000.060.0032.42-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0032.30-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.60-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0058.810.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6751.350.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.140.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0056.35-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.560.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.000.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0046.960.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3324.24-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3349.44-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0026.81-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.62-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.78-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.050.0043.50-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0550.0054.510.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.05100.0061.860.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0045.000.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0533.3340.10-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3344.62-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0575.0056.830.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0566.6732.890.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.04-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0580.0077.570.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0024.68-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0051.850.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0063.440.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0350.0063.270.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6749.380.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0035.550.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.170.030.0037.26-4.17-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.940.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0034.58-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0056.01-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3333.24-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.740.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0333.3342.08-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.66-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.380.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0043.690.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.24-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.48-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.590.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.35-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.81-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0023.10-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0052.16-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.12-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.51-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0021.84-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.20-0.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.520.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.160.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.32-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE2.080.03100.0060.162.080.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0050.440.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6764.690.000.01
CornellIvy2.080.0333.3337.81-0.69-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.83-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3360.02-0.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3365.28-0.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.410.000.01
UMBCAE2.080.030.0038.34-2.08-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0075.510.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth2.080.0350.0063.170.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0061.870.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0070.240.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.990.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.060.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.430.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0054.910.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0054.620.000.00