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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:26.3
Current RPI:21
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:47
Current Record:15-4
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-44.80.20%
26-56.91.60%
25-69.75.83%
24-713.514.41%
23-819.222.83%
22-926.324.25%
21-1035.317.32%
20-1145.29.06%
19-1256.03.67%
18-1368.60.73%
17-1481.80.05%
16-1598.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10South Alabama (235.0)SBH75-50W100%0.0
11-14Maine (331.6)AEH83-44W100%0.0
11-18Boston College (99.6)ACCN64-75W100%0.0
11-19Northwestern (127.8)B10N49-85W100%0.0
11-22Wofford (117.5)SCH79-56W100%0.0
11-25Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH103-69W100%0.0
11-30Seton Hall (25.9)BEN89-79L0%0.0
12-5Nevada (15.1)MWCH82-76W100%0.0
12-13Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH82-53W100%0.0
12-16Rice (321.9)CUSAH73-53W100%0.0
12-19Florida Atlantic (239.8)CUSAH90-54W100%0.0
12-22Abilene Christian (227.7)SlndH74-47W100%0.0
12-29Baylor (58.6)B12H77-53W100%0.0
1-2Kansas (5.9)B12A73-85W100%0.0
1-6Kansas St. (67.7)B12H74-58W100%0.0
1-9Oklahoma (22.7)B12A75-65L0%0.0
1-13West Virginia (15.9)B12H72-71W100%0.0
1-17Texas (46.2)B12A67-58L0%0.0
1-20Iowa St. (107.1)B12A70-52L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12H0-081%9.8
1-27South Carolina (70.8)SECA0-067%4.9
1-31Texas (46.2)B12H0-073%6.9
2-3TCU (28.0)B12A0-046%-1.2
2-7Iowa St. (107.1)B12H0-086%11.9
2-10Kansas St. (67.7)B12A0-053%0.8
2-13Oklahoma (22.7)B12H0-066%4.7
2-17Baylor (58.6)B12A0-048%-0.7
2-21Oklahoma St. (94.5)B12A0-062%3.4
2-24Kansas (5.9)B12H0-047%-0.8
2-26West Virginia (15.9)B12A0-029%-6.0
3-3TCU (28.0)B12H0-068%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3626.3179.1071.0915.3411.10
TCUB120.564.0973.6867.140.271.40
BaylorB122.994.0964.7158.220.880.67
OklahomaB122.844.0976.4767.981.501.47
KansasB122.994.0788.8983.432.322.72
Kansas St.B122.924.0777.7865.421.621.26
Oklahoma St.B120.504.0768.4255.870.180.48
TexasB122.924.0761.1157.230.650.59
West VirginiaB122.994.0788.8981.132.322.53
Iowa St.B122.914.0758.8246.520.51-0.28
RiceCUSA2.631.6711.7618.31-2.01-1.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.631.6740.0039.13-0.53-0.36
MaineAE2.771.6711.1115.36-2.15-1.15
NorthwesternB102.701.6757.8952.060.430.07
Savannah St.MEAC2.701.6729.4135.73-1.11-0.48
NevadaMWC2.631.6690.0084.742.111.16
South CarolinaSEC0.081.6461.1152.560.020.08
Boston CollegeACC2.701.6468.4256.491.000.21
South AlabamaSB2.701.6452.9447.510.16-0.08
WoffordSC2.631.6473.3366.041.230.53
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.631.6156.2554.670.330.15
Kennesaw St.ASun2.631.6117.6525.87-1.70-0.78
Seton HallBE2.631.6173.6866.821.250.54
Texas A&MSEC0.140.2168.4263.960.050.06
Wichita St.Amer0.220.1978.9577.380.130.10
LipscombASun0.300.1752.9459.340.020.03
FIUCUSA0.160.1735.2935.54-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.150.1744.4446.65-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.290.167.1414.82-0.25-0.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1625.0028.01-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1621.0544.26-0.08-0.02
TulsaAmer0.140.1655.0053.320.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1636.8435.57-0.04-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.150.1411.1118.00-0.11-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1423.5325.64-0.08-0.07
UTSACUSA0.230.1441.1839.65-0.04-0.03
NJITASun0.140.1438.8942.61-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1373.6869.640.070.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.1335.2940.48-0.06-0.03
ButlerBE0.210.1366.6763.070.070.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.1368.4264.200.030.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.1368.4258.980.030.02
CreightonBE0.270.1375.0070.700.140.05
MissouriSEC0.140.1366.6763.200.050.04
KentuckySEC0.070.1373.6867.970.030.05
PittsburghACC0.070.1340.0030.87-0.01-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1145.0049.29-0.02-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1143.7549.13-0.02-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.117.6923.28-0.06-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.220.1166.6765.370.070.03
UTEPCUSA0.160.1133.3334.10-0.05-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.1127.7838.14-0.07-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1152.6355.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1133.3337.23-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1126.6729.040.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1129.4139.63-0.06-0.02
New HampshireAE0.070.1133.3340.08-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1112.5025.45-0.11-0.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1173.6871.560.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1172.2268.930.000.04
WisconsinB100.070.1150.0046.300.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.1152.6345.860.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.210.1194.7486.140.190.08
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1166.6755.940.000.01
MichiganB100.070.1176.1970.740.040.04
XavierBE0.140.1185.7180.080.100.06
New MexicoMWC0.140.1145.0048.56-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.200.1066.6759.820.070.02
Boise St.MWC0.140.1078.9576.990.080.06
AmericanPat0.140.1026.3228.11-0.07-0.05
Arizona St.P120.140.1078.9576.130.080.05
Oral RobertsSum0.070.1030.0032.52-0.03-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.1068.4261.230.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.0957.8966.260.020.03
North FloridaASun0.160.0931.5835.15-0.06-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.160.0927.7831.11-0.07-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.0950.0052.460.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.160.0978.9576.750.090.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0980.0078.850.090.05
StetsonASun0.150.0933.3336.93-0.05-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0944.4454.86-0.010.01
SamfordSC0.160.0927.7832.66-0.07-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0941.1838.47-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.220.0957.8950.210.040.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0977.7879.150.040.05
MinnesotaB100.150.0863.6457.630.040.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.0841.1839.16-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.150.0866.6765.520.050.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0883.3381.370.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.085.8819.35-0.07-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0857.8953.190.010.01
WashingtonP120.140.0870.0061.440.060.02
YaleIvy0.070.0841.1847.56-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.150.0852.6343.110.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.140.0850.0045.930.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0827.7831.71-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0815.7920.91-0.10-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.0842.1146.09-0.03-0.01
La SalleA100.200.0840.0042.69-0.04-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.0830.0033.47-0.08-0.03
IowaB100.070.0847.6244.02-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.089.5217.90-0.12-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0810.0019.63-0.06-0.05
FordhamA100.140.0831.5829.06-0.05-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0868.4254.070.050.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0845.0045.03-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0864.7159.990.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0842.1134.31-0.01-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0873.6865.260.030.02
DukeACC0.140.0889.4785.210.110.05
ProvidenceBE0.070.0870.0060.470.030.02
VCUA100.140.0860.0059.700.030.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0861.1156.830.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.130.0830.0039.93-0.05-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.77-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0652.9455.030.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.650.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0672.2274.710.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0637.5045.24-0.04-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.36-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0668.7567.600.030.02
VMISC0.080.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.370.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0671.4370.240.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.73-0.04-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.820.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3333.870.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.0660.0062.030.030.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.140.0637.5031.76-0.04-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.0580.0075.060.090.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0585.0083.200.050.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.0552.3848.530.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.140.0520.0032.25-0.08-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.140.0521.4326.35-0.08-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0589.4777.000.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0561.1158.700.020.01
MarylandB100.000.0570.0065.250.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0545.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0572.2258.920.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
OregonP120.070.0565.0063.850.020.01
Penn St.B100.130.0561.9055.760.030.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0527.7827.28-0.03-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0527.7840.97-0.03-0.01
USCP120.070.0571.4368.280.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0542.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0552.9452.230.000.00
ClemsonACC0.070.0584.2173.240.050.02
IndianaB100.130.0557.8950.710.020.00
RutgersB100.070.0555.0046.690.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0547.3746.09-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0544.4446.000.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0571.4374.660.000.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0545.0043.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0540.0043.35-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.0578.9569.790.080.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0521.0522.02-0.04-0.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.550.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0577.7870.480.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0010.670.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.29-0.05-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.0563.1661.020.000.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0510.5318.340.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0570.0070.570.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0573.6872.380.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0572.2272.980.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0542.1143.51-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0566.6768.730.000.02
St. John'sBE0.070.0547.3742.16-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0555.0050.370.010.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.700.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0568.4260.860.030.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0521.0524.75-0.04-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
Washington St.P120.070.0547.3741.44-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.0583.3381.430.090.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0545.0041.330.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0566.6763.420.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0558.8262.820.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0511.7612.81-0.05-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.060.0545.0045.49-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.490.010.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.890.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.300.030.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0363.1665.970.020.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0337.5046.69-0.02-0.00
High PointBSth0.080.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0352.6358.590.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.26-0.05-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.060.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.009.090.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.06-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
Little RockSB0.000.0322.2225.250.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.640.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.140.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.030.003.07-0.07-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.170.000.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.040.01
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.370.050.02
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0347.3748.77-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.030.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.57-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.36-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0368.4257.740.000.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.060.0358.8261.450.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0368.7563.990.020.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0364.7166.850.020.01
PacificWCC0.060.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0357.8958.850.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0333.3332.94-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0355.0052.470.010.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0358.8262.440.010.01