live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas Tech

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:36
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:160



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18121.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH76-61W100%0.0
11-11Northern Arizona (247.0)BSkyH88-68W100%0.0
11-14Alabama (124.0)SECA76-64L0%0.0
11-18Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH80-71W100%0.0
11-21South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH68-54W100%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCN53-76L0%0.0
11-26Houston (143.0)AmerN64-76W100%0.0
11-29UTSA (306.0)CUSAH94-64W100%0.0
12-3Arizona (2.0)P12A79-58L0%0.0
12-15Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH79-57W100%0.0
12-18LSU (83.0)SECH69-71L0%0.0
12-21Arizona St. (44.0)P12A76-62L0%0.0
12-30Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH100-69W100%0.0
1-4Iowa St. (7.0)B12H62-73L0%0.0
1-6West Virginia (88.0)B12H86-89L0%0.0
1-11Texas (36.0)B12A67-64L0%0.0
1-15Baylor (30.0)B12H82-72W100%0.0
1-18TCU (212.0)B12A49-60W100%0.0
1-22West Virginia (88.0)B12A87-81L0%0.0
1-25Oklahoma (26.0)B12H65-74L0%0.0
1-28Kansas St. (51.0)B12A66-58L0%0.0
2-1TCU (212.0)B12H60-54W100%0.0
2-8Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H65-61W100%0.0
2-12Oklahoma (26.0)B12A60-68W100%0.0
2-15Iowa St. (7.0)B12A70-64L0%0.0
2-18Kansas (3.0)B12H63-64L0%0.0
2-22Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A84-62L0%0.0
2-25Kansas St. (51.0)B12H56-60L0%0.0
3-1Baylor (30.0)B12A59-49L0%0.0
3-5Kansas (3.0)B12A82-57L0%0.0
3-8Texas (36.0)B12H59-53W100%0.0
3-12Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N80-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas TechB1226.3326.3338.8138.81-5.89-5.89
Oklahoma St.B125.515.5163.3363.331.471.47
BaylorB124.154.1567.7467.741.471.47
Iowa St.B124.104.1077.4277.422.252.25
TexasB124.084.0870.9770.971.711.71
KansasB124.074.0770.9770.971.711.71
Kansas St.B124.034.0360.0060.000.810.81
OklahomaB124.024.0273.3373.331.881.88
West VirginiaB124.024.0250.0050.000.000.00
TCUB124.014.0125.9325.93-1.93-1.93
Houston BaptistSlnd1.671.6715.3815.38-1.16-1.16
Central ArkansasSlnd1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
AlabamaSEC1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
ArizonaP121.641.6487.8887.881.241.24
Texas SouthernSWAC1.621.6258.0658.060.260.26
Northern ArizonaBSky1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
LSUSEC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
UTSACUSA1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
Arizona St.P121.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
HoustonAmer1.591.5953.1253.120.100.10
PittsburghACC1.561.5672.7372.730.710.71
South Dakota St.Sum1.561.5659.2659.260.290.29
ColoradoP120.280.2867.6567.650.100.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.270.2753.5753.570.020.02
StanfordP120.220.2263.6463.640.060.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
TulsaCUSA0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1741.1841.18-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.8114.81-0.11-0.11
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
KentuckySEC0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1493.1093.100.120.12
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
PurdueB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
South DakotaSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
LehighPat0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
OregonP120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00