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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:44.0
Current RPI:44
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:24
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:43
Expected OOC SOS:69



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14NJIT (159.0)indH77-58W100%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH66-53W100%0.0
11-26Minnesota (98.0)B10H70-61W100%0.0
11-28Gonzaga (8.0)WCCH66-73L0%0.0
12-2Niagara (287.0)MAACH70-57W100%0.0
12-6Syracuse (69.0)ACCA57-69W100%0.0
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH74-52W100%0.0
12-14Fordham (238.0)A10H74-53W100%0.0
12-19Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCH53-47W100%0.0
12-22Long Beach St. (111.0)BWH66-49W100%0.0
12-28Tulane (214.0)AmerN82-57W100%0.0
12-31Seton Hall (97.0)BEA78-67L0%0.0
1-3Butler (31.0)BEH69-73L0%0.0
1-6Villanova (3.0)BEH72-90L0%0.0
1-14Providence (22.0)BEA70-83W100%0.0
1-18DePaul (197.0)BEA71-67L0%0.0
1-21Marquette (147.0)BEH60-57W100%0.0
1-25Duke (6.0)ACCH68-77L0%0.0
1-28Creighton (151.0)BEA77-74L0%0.0
1-31Providence (22.0)BEH75-66W100%0.0
2-3Butler (31.0)BEA85-62L0%0.0
2-7Creighton (151.0)BEH84-66W100%0.0
2-11DePaul (197.0)BEH86-78W100%0.0
2-14Xavier (30.0)BEA70-78W100%0.0
2-17Georgetown (25.0)BEA79-57L0%0.0
2-21Seton Hall (97.0)BEH85-72W100%0.0
2-23Xavier (30.0)BEH58-57W100%0.0
2-28Georgetown (25.0)BEH81-70W100%0.0
3-4Marquette (147.0)BEA51-67W100%0.0
3-7Villanova (3.0)BEA105-68L0%0.0
3-12Providence (22.0)BEH57-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.3426.3459.5459.545.035.03
ProvidenceBE5.685.6870.0070.002.272.27
VillanovaBE4.314.3193.7593.753.773.77
XavierBE4.284.2865.6265.621.341.34
GeorgetownBE4.214.2168.9768.971.601.60
CreightonBE4.204.2041.9441.94-0.68-0.68
MarquetteBE4.204.2043.3343.33-0.56-0.56
ButlerBE4.174.1766.6766.671.391.39
DePaulBE4.124.1236.6736.67-1.10-1.10
Seton HallBE4.124.1251.7251.720.140.14
NJITind1.741.7458.3358.330.290.29
SyracuseACC1.741.7460.0060.000.350.35
Long Beach St.BW1.731.7346.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Saint Mary'sWCC1.711.7171.4371.430.730.73
LIU BrooklynNEC1.701.7041.3841.38-0.29-0.29
GonzagaWCC1.671.6793.7593.751.461.46
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
DukeACC1.661.6687.5087.501.251.25
FordhamA101.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
MinnesotaB101.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
NiagaraMAAC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
TulaneAmer1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Notre DameACC0.200.2085.2985.290.140.14
MaineAE0.190.1910.0010.00-0.16-0.16
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.180.1891.1891.180.150.15
AlbanyAE0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
TempleAmer0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1416.1316.13-0.10-0.10
St. Francis PANEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1347.0647.06-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
MassachusettsA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
LehighPat0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
BryantNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
PacificWCC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
La SalleA100.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
PennIvy0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
NavyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
ArmyPat0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02