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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:156.3
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:239
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:11-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1241.50.02%
18-1359.00.08%
17-1470.20.41%
16-1583.01.22%
15-1697.73.22%
14-17111.97.43%
13-18127.613.66%
12-19144.118.78%
11-20160.520.56%
10-21177.716.98%
9-22194.610.82%
8-23211.75.02%
7-24226.21.48%
6-25240.40.25%
5-26258.80.05%
4-27260.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bethune Cookman (340.7)MEACH100-53W100%0.0
11-14Binghamton (258.3)AEH77-61W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (36.8)B10A92-86L0%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (48.7)B10N73-62L0%0.0
11-24VCU (43.3)A10N69-75L0%0.0
11-25Old Dominion (96.2)CUSAN63-55L0%0.0
11-29Delaware St. (288.6)MEACH72-79L0%0.0
12-2Tulane (283.8)AmerA75-95W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Northridge (259.3)BWH76-70W100%0.0
12-8Fordham (220.5)A10H0-077%8.9
12-11LIU Brooklyn (231.9)NECN0-081%10.3
12-18Penn St. (121.1)B10H0-058%2.5
12-21Syracuse (69.2)ACCA0-015%-12.3
12-29Butler (15.8)BEH0-023%-8.8
1-1DePaul (202.8)BEA0-056%1.7
1-4Creighton (23.6)BEH0-023%-8.7
1-7Xavier (15.9)BEA0-011%-14.8
1-9Georgetown (95.6)BEA0-026%-7.6
1-14Villanova (5.1)BEH0-012%-14.2
1-16DePaul (202.8)BEH0-075%8.0
1-22Seton Hall (74.0)BEA0-024%-8.6
1-25Providence (73.3)BEA0-027%-7.5
1-29Xavier (15.9)BEH0-024%-8.6
2-1Marquette (46.6)BEH0-028%-6.9
2-4Villanova (5.1)BEA0-04%-20.4
2-11Seton Hall (74.0)BEH0-042%-2.4
2-15Butler (15.8)BEA0-010%-15.1
2-21Marquette (46.6)BEA0-014%-13.2
2-25Georgetown (95.6)BEH0-045%-1.4
2-28Creighton (23.6)BEA0-011%-14.9
3-4Providence (73.3)BEH0-046%-1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE28.1426.3139.0233.26-6.18-8.81
GeorgetownBE0.004.1055.5646.880.00-0.26
ProvidenceBE0.004.0875.0056.300.000.51
VillanovaBE0.004.08100.0084.350.002.80
XavierBE0.004.0887.5070.140.001.64
ButlerBE0.004.07100.0073.800.001.94
CreightonBE0.004.07100.0076.240.002.14
DePaulBE0.004.0766.6735.810.00-1.16
MarquetteBE0.004.0775.0065.520.001.26
Seton HallBE0.004.0771.4353.890.000.32
MinnesotaB105.561.7485.7166.823.970.59
VCUA105.901.7071.4372.102.530.75
Michigan St.B105.561.6950.0057.110.000.24
Penn St.B100.001.6966.6746.650.00-0.11
Delaware St.MEAC5.561.670.0035.23-5.56-0.49
BinghamtonAE5.901.6757.1445.000.84-0.17
SyracuseACC0.001.6662.5061.410.000.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC5.561.6414.2932.32-3.97-0.58
FordhamA100.001.6450.0042.110.00-0.26
LIU BrooklynNEC0.001.6471.4357.060.000.23
Old DominionCUSA5.561.6466.6766.791.850.55
Cal St. NorthridgeBW5.561.6128.5744.87-2.38-0.17
TulaneAmer5.561.6114.2924.53-3.97-0.82
WisconsinB100.000.2977.7875.900.000.15
RutgersB100.000.2485.7145.270.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.2216.6744.42-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1987.5074.500.000.09
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1987.5082.460.000.12
NorthwesternB100.000.1975.0066.180.000.06
La SalleA100.000.1866.6755.480.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.1887.5068.530.000.07
PurdueB100.000.1875.0075.290.000.09
VermontAE0.000.1662.5071.360.000.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.350.1633.3332.88-0.12-0.06
IowaB100.000.1644.4438.90-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1675.0064.560.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1675.0066.440.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.1657.1444.820.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.1687.5059.220.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1450.0050.690.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1414.2938.31-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0035.97-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.140.0017.13-0.00-0.09
MaineAE0.000.1414.2924.18-0.00-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.350.1433.3339.82-0.12-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1316.6739.71-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.350.1350.0046.010.00-0.01
RichmondA100.400.1350.0048.260.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1375.0049.490.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1362.5069.240.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1342.8645.35-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.350.1357.1436.140.05-0.04
IllinoisB100.350.1362.5050.590.090.00
VirginiaACC0.000.1387.5078.760.000.07
Wake ForestACC0.000.1375.0054.510.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.110.0022.51-0.00-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1157.1471.550.000.05
New HampshireAE0.000.1157.1458.830.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1142.8645.99-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1185.7175.770.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1122.2241.58-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1133.3352.15-0.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.1171.4363.160.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.1144.4442.09-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1175.0055.960.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1112.5025.29-0.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.1175.0059.370.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3354.84-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1042.8644.97-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1055.5641.720.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1071.4358.620.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1062.5046.900.00-0.01
BaylorB120.660.10100.0076.260.660.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1057.1429.850.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1033.3352.72-0.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.350.090.0038.15-0.35-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.63-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.350.0980.0054.500.210.01
HartfordAE0.000.0822.2226.36-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.0822.2238.53-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0020.80-0.00-0.05
StanfordP120.350.0866.6758.230.120.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0842.8661.12-0.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0026.80-0.00-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0857.1432.990.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.350.0850.0041.890.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0833.3330.48-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.350.0875.0070.650.170.03
SMUAmer0.350.0866.6766.700.120.03
ColgatePat0.000.0812.5029.43-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.350.0862.5040.600.09-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0837.5033.64-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.310.0875.0068.820.150.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.350.0811.1148.45-0.27-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0051.170.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.310.080.0022.65-0.31-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.710.000.05
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.210.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.400.0887.5075.700.300.04
MissouriSEC0.350.0857.1442.470.05-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0875.0066.390.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.990.000.01
DukeACC0.310.0888.8978.500.240.04
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0077.540.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.75-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.59-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.480.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.480.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0031.64-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.61-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0628.5738.23-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.75-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.16-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.350.0642.8645.86-0.05-0.00
FIUCUSA0.350.0614.2935.75-0.25-0.02
CornellIvy0.350.0528.5729.87-0.15-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.660.0557.1471.900.090.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.690.0571.4363.370.300.01
AkronMAC0.000.0571.4368.960.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.73-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0566.6766.310.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.380.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0512.5030.38-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0571.4351.460.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0520.0022.08-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0542.8642.65-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.400.050.0020.36-0.40-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.63-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0577.7849.540.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.360.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0566.6740.560.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0557.1452.030.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0585.7177.980.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.21-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0542.8645.25-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.61-0.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0550.0041.280.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0520.0021.78-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.930.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0537.5037.68-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0575.0048.640.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0560.0058.500.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6739.56-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5737.13-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0042.070.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0542.8638.92-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0525.0020.75-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0037.680.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0562.5052.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8628.85-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.07-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0537.5034.91-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0566.6754.150.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8655.39-0.000.01
LSUSEC0.740.0571.4349.210.32-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0587.5076.180.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.350.0587.5081.950.260.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0550.0044.810.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0528.5723.79-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.350.0562.5067.400.090.02
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.33-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0555.5647.040.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.650.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0575.0062.390.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.680.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0571.4359.530.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.350.0587.5065.300.260.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.92-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0542.8635.20-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0542.8666.59-0.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0557.1459.300.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0571.4354.250.000.00
OregonP120.000.0575.0072.660.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0533.3356.59-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0571.4356.310.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0544.4441.39-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.11-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0057.680.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.350.0312.5029.50-0.26-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0046.05-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.350.0362.5058.520.090.01
PortlandWCC0.350.0357.1450.740.050.00
Texas A&MSEC0.350.0371.4366.220.150.01
UCLAP120.350.03100.0086.530.350.02
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.22-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.0328.5731.08-0.15-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.350.0362.5060.410.090.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0325.0030.31-0.17-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.0375.0069.430.170.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.350.0342.8637.07-0.05-0.01
SamfordSC0.350.0362.5056.380.090.00
San DiegoWCC0.350.0337.5031.16-0.09-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.79-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.990.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.350.0342.8656.77-0.050.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.350.0350.0066.260.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.140.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0316.6730.41-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.750.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.85-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.19-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.400.0312.5030.18-0.30-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.13-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.470.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.33-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.350.0340.0041.81-0.07-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.06-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.350.0371.4347.980.15-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1451.010.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.560.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.350.0342.8650.33-0.050.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.95-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.470.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.400.0342.8653.19-0.060.00
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.930.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.46-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.02-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.350.0385.7166.250.250.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.200.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.69-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.06-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.02-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.310.0387.5082.830.230.02
LibertyBSth0.350.0333.3348.14-0.12-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.78-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.550.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.310.030.0025.42-0.31-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.290.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.830.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5035.01-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7176.970.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.350.0325.0063.18-0.170.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.350.0357.1449.200.05-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.54-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.350.0357.1467.190.050.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7163.030.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0375.0086.690.150.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5052.110.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.81-0.00-0.01