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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:41.5
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:17
Current SOS:66
Current Record:8-1
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-34.00.01%
26-47.00.14%
25-59.60.57%
24-613.11.82%
23-716.64.77%
22-821.19.74%
21-926.615.31%
20-1033.819.23%
19-1143.118.36%
18-1254.614.56%
17-1367.48.95%
16-1481.74.16%
15-1598.61.80%
14-16115.70.39%
13-17133.30.13%
12-18141.20.04%
11-19157.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14NJIT (216.8)indH77-58W100%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECH66-53W100%0.0
11-26Minnesota (42.8)B10H70-61W100%0.0
11-28Gonzaga (11.4)WCCH66-73L0%0.0
12-2Niagara (279.6)MAACH70-57W100%0.0
12-6Syracuse (70.4)ACCA57-69W100%0.0
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECH74-52W100%0.0
12-14Fordham (257.2)A10H74-53W100%0.0
12-19Saint Mary's (110.0)WCCH53-47W100%0.0
12-22Long Beach St. (86.1)BWH0-080%10.0
12-28Tulane (155.0)AmerN0-083%11.2
12-31Seton Hall (38.0)BEA0-035%-4.5
1-3Butler (36.1)BEH0-055%1.4
1-6Villanova (14.8)BEH0-045%-1.3
1-14Providence (64.0)BEA0-043%-2.0
1-18DePaul (197.3)BEA0-071%6.6
1-21Marquette (100.7)BEH0-078%8.9
1-25Duke (4.4)ACCH0-027%-7.3
1-28Creighton (113.1)BEA0-054%1.2
1-31Providence (64.0)BEH0-071%6.3
2-3Butler (36.1)BEA0-028%-6.9
2-7Creighton (113.1)BEH0-079%9.6
2-11DePaul (197.3)BEH0-090%14.9
2-14Xavier (27.1)BEA0-027%-7.2
2-17Georgetown (47.0)BEA0-036%-4.2
2-21Seton Hall (38.0)BEH0-063%3.9
2-23Xavier (27.1)BEH0-054%1.1
2-28Georgetown (47.0)BEH0-064%4.2
3-4Marquette (100.7)BEA0-052%0.6
3-7Villanova (14.8)BEA0-020%-9.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE27.7926.3480.0060.5516.675.56
VillanovaBE0.284.28100.0084.070.282.91
ButlerBE0.004.2772.7368.610.001.59
XavierBE0.004.2772.7368.130.001.55
GeorgetownBE0.004.2670.0059.900.000.84
CreightonBE0.354.2575.0053.440.170.29
MarquetteBE0.234.2560.0049.970.05-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.004.2275.0058.370.000.71
Seton HallBE0.004.2190.0068.560.001.56
DePaulBE0.004.2160.0035.250.00-1.24
NJITind5.861.8045.4545.50-0.53-0.16
SyracuseACC5.561.8066.6760.051.850.36
Long Beach St.BW0.001.8036.3651.78-0.000.06
Saint Mary'sWCC5.561.7871.4360.232.380.36
LIU BrooklynNEC5.791.7637.5046.64-1.45-0.12
GonzagaWCC5.561.7390.0090.224.441.39
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.561.7242.8641.12-0.79-0.31
DukeACC0.001.72100.0087.540.001.29
FordhamA105.561.6733.3328.12-1.85-0.73
MinnesotaB105.561.6788.8970.174.320.67
NiagaraMAAC5.561.6714.2930.56-3.97-0.65
TulaneAmer0.001.6788.8957.250.000.24
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2130.0043.15-0.09-0.03
MaineAE0.540.2011.1120.80-0.42-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA100.910.2060.0043.160.18-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.2090.9188.840.000.15
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1730.0039.59-0.00-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1733.3341.20-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.1754.5557.570.000.03
TempleAmer0.310.1763.6456.430.080.02
Notre DameACC0.350.1691.6777.120.290.09
Central ConnecticutNEC0.230.1520.0027.29-0.14-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1555.5665.210.000.05
AlbanyAE0.230.1540.0055.01-0.050.01
BYUWCC0.000.1470.0068.340.000.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.350.1436.3648.18-0.09-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1466.6765.500.000.04
MichiganB100.510.1450.0040.450.00-0.03
LehighPat0.310.1444.4454.06-0.030.01
IndianaB100.000.1481.8263.330.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.280.1445.4537.60-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1366.6742.600.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1372.7374.850.000.07
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5745.89-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1255.5660.980.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1212.5030.56-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.400.1238.4644.61-0.09-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1255.5638.270.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6755.670.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.1270.0051.040.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1244.4436.80-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1225.0023.40-0.00-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1250.0054.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.1154.5552.730.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1154.5552.490.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1166.6773.310.000.05
Cal PolyBW0.600.1137.5041.94-0.15-0.02
RutgersB100.350.1154.5532.590.03-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1160.0061.600.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1140.0041.32-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.59-0.00-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1170.0064.680.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0056.620.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.530.1162.5059.050.130.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1166.6767.300.000.04
PittsburghACC0.350.1170.0051.780.140.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.1180.0053.260.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.280.11100.0084.930.280.08
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6744.720.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1155.5646.290.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1166.6764.770.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1154.5541.980.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1181.8266.010.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.1170.0062.710.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.860.1050.0050.490.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0930.0038.01-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.400.0950.0058.370.000.01
SienaMAAC0.400.0933.3349.54-0.13-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0960.0047.170.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0966.6761.820.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6735.27-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.400.0991.6755.310.330.01
UC IrvineBW0.350.0937.5046.38-0.09-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0960.0062.070.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0850.0058.070.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0840.0037.64-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0866.6758.320.000.01
DelawareCAA0.350.080.008.56-0.35-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.350.0836.3648.28-0.09-0.00
VCUA100.000.0872.7375.740.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0811.1125.48-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.280.0825.0033.40-0.14-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0881.8282.250.000.05
PennIvy0.000.0837.5032.63-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.310.0833.3355.24-0.100.01
IowaB100.280.0866.6759.420.090.02
IllinoisB100.000.0875.0065.140.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.810.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0866.6778.020.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0833.3328.79-0.09-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.280.0833.3328.13-0.09-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0038.030.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.230.0637.5034.06-0.06-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.350.0666.6767.650.120.02
UMBCAE0.280.0618.1825.30-0.18-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.280.0645.4549.62-0.03-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.510.0657.1453.770.070.00
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.02
DavidsonA100.350.0688.8977.320.270.03
St. BonaventureA100.350.0677.7865.110.190.02
MarylandB100.400.0690.9168.230.320.02
CanisiusMAAC0.350.0655.5662.150.040.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.070.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.000.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.46-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0663.6465.220.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.310.0650.0060.410.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8633.27-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4450.60-0.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5658.650.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0053.250.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.30-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.250.0672.7375.710.110.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.0620.0045.74-0.15-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.280.060.0034.33-0.28-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0075.440.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0618.1822.49-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.31-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.37-0.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.370.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0687.5068.000.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5063.95-0.000.02
UCLAP120.250.0666.6754.480.080.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.480.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3637.85-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0522.2231.81-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6754.130.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0550.0039.790.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0563.6464.880.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.050.0011.24-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.000.0540.0033.80-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0540.0036.66-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0017.69-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0540.0049.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0560.0043.890.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0540.0043.04-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0577.7870.160.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0530.0029.75-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0527.2728.86-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.05100.0096.290.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0550.0047.880.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0570.0052.600.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0540.0032.26-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0560.0065.120.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0520.0022.16-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0550.0071.260.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0061.480.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.81-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0527.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0533.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0560.0071.280.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0086.080.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0031.89-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.350.0377.7872.890.190.01
ColumbiaIvy0.350.0366.6767.930.120.01
DenverSum0.350.0345.4555.13-0.030.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.0333.3361.74-0.120.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0370.0060.920.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.350.0333.3341.02-0.12-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0360.0057.700.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0033.270.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8648.87-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.350.0377.7870.890.190.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3337.91-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.310.0344.4450.41-0.030.00
HartfordAE0.350.0350.0050.620.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0370.0076.180.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0316.6743.20-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.760.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.039.0917.12-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.14-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.250.03100.0082.630.250.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.0342.8641.81-0.04-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
SeattleWAC0.280.0333.3343.83-0.09-0.00
TexasB120.000.0390.9179.980.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0320.0052.97-0.150.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.330.000.00
Washington St.P120.250.0340.0028.13-0.05-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.280.0320.0040.93-0.17-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.0350.0051.710.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.9169.030.230.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.59-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0344.4451.07-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0372.7367.520.130.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.60-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0363.6461.520.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.550.000.01