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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:96
Expected SOS:34
Current SOS:34
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:166


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1596.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Detroit (63.0)HorzH77-74W100%0.0
11-15College of Charleston (133.0)SCA53-64W100%0.0
11-16Murray St. (110.0)OVCN72-67L0%0.0
11-18Baylor (71.0)B12N78-97L0%0.0
11-21Holy Cross (251.0)PatH65-53W100%0.0
11-24Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)ASunH79-68W100%0.0
11-29South Carolina (222.0)SECH89-65W100%0.0
12-1NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCH57-49W100%0.0
12-4San Francisco (167.0)WCCA81-65L0%0.0
12-8Fordham (228.0)A10H58-47W100%0.0
12-15St. Francis NY (207.0)NECN77-60W100%0.0
12-21NC Asheville (217.0)BSthH65-72L0%0.0
1-2Villanova (52.0)BEA98-86L0%0.0
1-5Cincinnati (50.0)BEA52-53W100%0.0
1-9Rutgers (109.0)BEH56-58L0%0.0
1-12Georgetown (11.0)BEH51-67L0%0.0
1-15Notre Dame (35.0)BEH67-63W100%0.0
1-19DePaul (204.0)BEA62-71W100%0.0
1-23Rutgers (109.0)BEA60-72W100%0.0
1-27Seton Hall (138.0)BEH71-67W100%0.0
1-30DePaul (204.0)BEH79-74W100%0.0
2-2Georgetown (11.0)BEA68-56L0%0.0
2-6Connecticut (49.0)BEH71-65W100%0.0
2-10Syracuse (14.0)BEA77-58L0%0.0
2-14Louisville (3.0)BEA72-58L0%0.0
2-20South Florida (156.0)BEH69-54W100%0.0
2-24Pittsburgh (44.0)BEH47-63L0%0.0
3-2Providence (91.0)BEA62-59L0%0.0
3-5Notre Dame (35.0)BEA66-40L0%0.0
3-9Marquette (13.0)BEH67-69L0%0.0
3-13Villanova (52.0)BEH53-66L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.0526.0547.4847.48-1.31-1.31
Notre DameBE3.863.8675.0075.001.931.93
RutgersBE3.853.8548.2848.28-0.13-0.13
VillanovaBE3.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
DePaulBE3.813.8136.6736.67-1.01-1.01
GeorgetownBE3.803.8079.3179.312.232.23
SyracuseBE2.372.3773.5373.531.121.12
LouisvilleBE2.332.3384.8584.851.631.63
ProvidenceBE2.302.3053.3353.330.150.15
CincinnatiBE2.302.3068.7568.750.860.86
PittsburghBE2.292.2974.1974.191.111.11
Seton HallBE2.282.2846.8846.88-0.14-0.14
MarquetteBE2.242.2473.3373.331.051.05
ConnecticutBE2.222.2268.9768.970.840.84
South FloridaBE2.222.2240.0040.00-0.44-0.44
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC1.741.7450.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat1.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
FordhamA101.661.6623.3323.33-0.89-0.89
College of CharlestonSC1.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
DetroitHorz1.661.6662.0762.070.400.40
St. Francis NYNEC1.651.6541.3841.38-0.28-0.28
San FranciscoWCC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
NC AshevilleBSth1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
BaylorB121.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Murray St.OVC1.611.6164.2964.290.460.46
South CarolinaSEC1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
MonmouthNEC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
ColgatePat0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.GWC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
LafayettePat0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
AmericanPat0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
MississippiSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
LehighPat0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Brigham YoungWCC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
TempleA100.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1210.0010.00-0.10-0.10
KentuckySEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
ArmyPat0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
TexasB120.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
StetsonASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.7593.750.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacNEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MaineAE0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
ElonSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
New Orleansind0.060.0618.1818.18-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0628.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ButlerA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonCAA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00