live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 11, 2012.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:42
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19159.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-7William & Mary (299.0)CAAH74-59W100%0.0
11-9Lehigh (91.0)PatH78-73W100%0.0
11-13MD Baltimore County (339.0)AEH82-59W100%0.0
11-17Arizona (79.0)P12H72-81L0%0.0
11-18Texas A&M (165.0)B12H57-58L0%0.0
11-22St. Francis NY (210.0)NECH63-48W100%0.0
11-26Northeastern (172.0)CAAH64-78L0%0.0
12-1Kentucky (2.0)SECA81-59L0%0.0
12-5Detroit (126.0)HorzA69-63L0%0.0
12-17Fordham (240.0)A10H56-50W100%0.0
12-21Texas Pan American (314.0)GWCH66-61W100%0.0
12-27Providence (156.0)BEH91-67W100%0.0
12-31Connecticut (32.0)BEA83-69L0%0.0
1-3Louisville (13.0)BEH58-73L0%0.0
1-7Cincinnati (44.0)BEA55-57W100%0.0
1-11Marquette (9.0)BEA83-64L0%0.0
1-15Georgetown (15.0)BEH49-69L0%0.0
1-18South Florida (52.0)BEA64-49L0%0.0
1-21Villanova (121.0)BEH76-79L0%0.0
1-25West Virginia (57.0)BEH78-62W100%0.0
1-28Duke (5.0)ACCA83-76L0%0.0
2-1DePaul (198.0)BEA81-87W100%0.0
2-4Syracuse (1.0)BEH70-95L0%0.0
2-8Cincinnati (44.0)BEH54-76L0%0.0
2-12Georgetown (15.0)BEA71-61L0%0.0
2-14Seton Hall (68.0)BEA94-64L0%0.0
2-18UCLA (117.0)P12H66-63W100%0.0
2-20DePaul (198.0)BEH79-72W100%0.0
2-25Notre Dame (39.0)BEH61-58W100%0.0
2-29Pittsburgh (96.0)BEA89-69L0%0.0
3-3Rutgers (163.0)BEA61-58L0%0.0
3-6Pittsburgh (96.0)BEH59-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE25.9825.9833.5733.57-8.54-8.54
CincinnatiBE3.693.6971.8871.881.611.61
GeorgetownBE3.683.6871.4371.431.581.58
PittsburghBE3.663.6648.3948.39-0.12-0.12
DePaulBE3.633.6341.3841.38-0.63-0.63
LouisvilleBE2.262.2673.5373.531.061.06
Seton HallBE2.172.1761.2961.290.490.49
ConnecticutBE2.172.1759.3859.380.410.41
SyracuseBE2.172.1793.7593.751.901.90
MarquetteBE2.142.1477.4277.421.181.18
South FloridaBE2.142.1458.0658.060.350.35
Notre DameBE2.142.1468.7568.750.800.80
VillanovaBE2.142.1438.7138.71-0.48-0.48
ProvidenceBE2.122.1248.3948.39-0.07-0.07
RutgersBE2.122.1241.9441.94-0.34-0.34
West VirginiaBE2.122.1261.2961.290.480.48
William & MaryCAA1.661.6616.6716.67-1.11-1.11
NortheasternCAA1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
ArizonaP121.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
UCLAP121.631.6358.0658.060.260.26
LehighPat1.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.611.6125.9325.93-0.78-0.78
FordhamA101.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
MD Baltimore CountyAE1.591.5913.7913.79-1.15-1.15
St. Francis NYNEC1.591.5951.7251.720.050.05
DetroitHorz1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
KentuckySEC1.581.5893.9493.941.391.39
DukeACC1.561.5681.2581.250.980.98
Texas A&MB121.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
KansasB120.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
FloridaSEC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Chicago St.GWC0.150.1510.7110.71-0.12-0.12
ColgatePat0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
AlbanyAE0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Old DominionCAA0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
WagnerNEC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
PennsylvaniaIvy0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Arizona St.P120.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MemphisCUSA0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
La SalleA100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
MissouriB120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.120.126.676.67-0.11-0.11
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Southern CaliforniaP120.120.1218.7518.75-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.110.116.456.45-0.09-0.09
HowardMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
TempleA100.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Boston UniversityAE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
VermontAE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
HofstraCAA0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.100.103.123.12-0.10-0.10
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas TechB120.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
ColoradoP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaGWC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
BaylorB120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
IUPUISum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
XavierA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
ButlerHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. LouisA100.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
George MasonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Longwoodind0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0265.3865.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontASun0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00