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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:84.3
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:33
Current SOS:296
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:93
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-510.00.03%
23-614.70.15%
22-717.40.63%
21-827.01.86%
20-935.84.65%
19-1046.28.73%
18-1159.113.61%
17-1272.917.23%
16-1387.617.94%
15-14102.515.37%
14-15118.010.46%
13-16134.75.61%
12-17151.22.36%
11-18169.60.93%
10-19191.00.37%
9-20215.50.04%
8-21229.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14NJIT (291.7)indH77-58W100%0.0
11-19LIU Brooklyn (272.9)NECH66-53W100%0.0
11-26Minnesota (89.7)B10H70-61W100%0.0
12-2Niagara (272.3)MAACH0-095%19.6
12-6Syracuse (34.5)ACCA0-020%-9.9
12-10Fairleigh Dickinson (287.5)NECH0-096%20.4
12-14Fordham (261.1)A10H0-092%17.0
12-19Saint Mary's (47.5)WCCH0-055%1.5
12-22Long Beach St. (74.9)BWH0-068%5.7
12-28Tulane (234.3)AmerN0-082%10.9
12-31Seton Hall (47.9)BEA0-032%-5.5
1-3Butler (32.4)BEH0-042%-2.3
1-6Villanova (27.3)BEH0-040%-3.0
1-14Providence (33.7)BEA0-027%-7.3
1-18DePaul (222.3)BEA0-074%7.5
1-21Marquette (150.0)BEH0-077%9.0
1-25Duke (3.9)ACCH0-020%-10.3
1-28Creighton (67.3)BEA0-035%-4.6
1-31Providence (33.7)BEH0-049%-0.2
2-3Butler (32.4)BEA0-022%-9.5
2-7Creighton (67.3)BEH0-058%2.6
2-11DePaul (222.3)BEH0-089%14.7
2-14Xavier (11.5)BEA0-016%-11.8
2-17Georgetown (37.0)BEA0-028%-6.9
2-21Seton Hall (47.9)BEH0-055%1.6
2-23Xavier (11.5)BEH0-035%-4.7
2-28Georgetown (37.0)BEH0-051%0.3
3-4Marquette (150.0)BEA0-056%1.9
3-7Villanova (27.3)BEA0-020%-10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE31.5326.38100.0051.0431.530.55
VillanovaBE0.004.45100.0076.400.002.35
CreightonBE0.004.42100.0062.090.001.07
XavierBE0.004.41100.0079.040.002.56
MarquetteBE1.674.4160.0040.510.33-0.84
ProvidenceBE0.004.39100.0066.210.001.42
ButlerBE0.004.3880.0071.650.001.90
Seton HallBE0.004.38100.0063.620.001.19
DePaulBE0.004.3866.6726.000.00-2.10
GeorgetownBE0.004.3880.0063.600.001.19
NJITind16.671.8725.0031.37-8.33-0.70
SyracuseACC0.001.8780.0067.560.000.66
LIU BrooklynNEC16.671.820.0046.20-16.67-0.14
Long Beach St.BW0.001.8140.0055.40-0.000.20
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.001.7833.3339.93-0.00-0.36
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.78100.0072.230.000.79
DukeACC0.001.78100.0083.420.001.19
FordhamA100.001.720.0026.91-0.00-0.80
MinnesotaB1016.671.7266.6756.985.560.24
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7233.3331.14-0.00-0.65
TulaneAmer0.001.7266.6740.630.00-0.32
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.220.0052.73-0.000.01
MaineAE1.670.210.0019.84-1.67-0.13
WisconsinB100.000.21100.0087.590.000.16
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1833.3347.83-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1825.0036.14-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA102.780.1850.0036.580.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.1760.0050.480.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.1783.3369.110.000.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.160.0030.72-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1625.0045.71-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE1.670.1550.0063.340.000.04
IndianaB100.000.1580.0056.380.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1575.0069.240.000.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1520.0040.88-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.1575.0066.060.000.05
LehighPat0.000.1420.0041.82-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.1466.6751.440.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1480.0074.090.000.07
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1440.0038.03-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.1233.3346.36-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1225.0033.76-0.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1260.0050.240.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.120.0044.93-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1214.2930.86-0.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1266.6741.200.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.12100.0062.000.000.03
RutgersB100.000.1250.0024.450.00-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1275.0044.850.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.12100.0056.910.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.1283.3366.830.000.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.1266.6756.430.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0018.96-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0064.460.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.1275.0052.330.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1275.0055.470.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1260.0055.660.000.01
LouisvilleACC2.080.12100.0078.392.080.07
OklahomaB120.000.1180.0070.540.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1160.0057.910.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1140.0038.97-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.880.000.06
UMass LowellAE1.670.1060.0041.750.33-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0950.0067.630.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3334.34-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6739.60-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0057.880.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0933.3366.19-0.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3351.25-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0074.590.000.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0049.08-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0950.0052.540.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0920.0050.32-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.340.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0933.3361.73-0.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0068.20-0.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0980.0070.930.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0925.0043.15-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0069.780.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0940.0032.81-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0966.6765.220.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0980.0071.340.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.0983.3338.760.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0019.53-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.390.000.04
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0067.700.000.03
PennIvy0.000.090.0023.53-0.00-0.05
Stony BrookAE2.780.0960.0068.620.560.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0933.3329.78-0.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0940.0031.76-0.00-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0035.980.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0053.990.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0725.0045.04-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0760.0061.400.000.01
UMBCAE2.080.060.0027.48-2.08-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.35-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0064.010.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.17-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.400.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3337.74-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0067.380.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.300.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0062.400.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0088.610.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4356.020.000.01
KansasB120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.280.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0050.720.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.980.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.100.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0059.430.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0625.0037.88-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3352.29-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0052.620.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3364.43-0.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0640.0037.90-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3332.18-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0023.83-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6764.030.000.02
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.310.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.070.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0660.0037.710.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.810.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0060.510.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.440.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.22-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0034.06-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.39-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3367.57-0.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0633.3346.25-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.680.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.400.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0056.120.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0640.0043.47-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0680.0075.550.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.17-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0035.88-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.41-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.890.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0054.380.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0053.040.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0067.79-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0675.0039.180.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.79-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0666.6746.480.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.180.000.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0023.09-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3335.76-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0050.620.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.470.000.04
NavyPat0.000.0620.0030.56-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0064.840.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0073.330.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.65-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0325.0039.20-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0040.20-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.17-0.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.120.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0070.920.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0067.100.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0037.69-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0063.970.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0046.860.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0079.050.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0048.100.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0036.05-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0325.0035.86-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0333.3337.71-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0360.0068.830.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.38-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.46-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0065.590.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.530.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0057.930.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0047.99-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA2.080.0340.0045.07-0.42-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.05-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8641.73-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0023.49-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02