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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:233.1
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:40
Current SOS:30
Current Record:6-18
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:0-12
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19172.30.03%
10-20189.10.43%
9-21203.54.53%
8-22218.521.81%
7-23234.143.71%
6-24247.829.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wagner (201.7)NECH66-57W100%0.0
11-16UMBC (321.1)AEH75-53W100%0.0
11-19Rutgers (280.8)B10H61-59W100%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (53.4)SECN92-55L0%0.0
11-24Indiana (31.4)B10N83-73L0%0.0
12-2Fordham (193.9)A10A73-57L0%0.0
12-6St. Francis NY (285.0)NECH63-56W100%0.0
12-9Niagara (307.1)MAACH48-44W100%0.0
12-13Syracuse (45.9)ACCH84-72W100%0.0
12-18Incarnate Word (188.7)SlndH51-73L0%0.0
12-20NJIT (184.9)ASunH74-83L0%0.0
12-22South Carolina (39.1)SECN75-61L0%0.0
12-31Creighton (78.8)BEH70-80L0%0.0
1-2Providence (50.6)BEA83-65L0%0.0
1-6Xavier (9.7)BEH66-74L0%0.0
1-9Marquette (118.1)BEA81-75L0%0.0
1-13Georgetown (70.0)BEH73-93L0%0.0
1-16Butler (48.0)BEA78-58L0%0.0
1-24Marquette (118.1)BEH73-78L0%0.0
1-27Seton Hall (55.2)BEA79-60L0%0.0
1-31Villanova (3.3)BEH53-68L0%0.0
2-3Xavier (9.7)BEA90-83L0%0.0
2-6Butler (48.0)BEH56-89L0%0.0
2-8Georgetown (70.0)BEA92-67L0%0.0
2-13Villanova (3.3)BEA0-01%-27.5
2-17DePaul (168.3)BEH0-044%-1.6
2-21Seton Hall (55.2)BEH0-014%-11.6
2-25DePaul (168.3)BEA0-022%-8.2
2-28Creighton (78.8)BEA0-05%-18.2
3-5Providence (50.6)BEH0-017%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.3926.3216.3616.08-17.75-17.85
CreightonBE2.734.2662.5059.610.680.82
Seton HallBE2.814.2669.5766.301.101.39
ProvidenceBE2.814.2470.8367.601.171.49
GeorgetownBE4.684.2352.1749.620.20-0.03
DePaulBE0.854.2333.3331.69-0.28-1.55
MarquetteBE4.724.2160.8754.981.030.42
VillanovaBE2.684.2186.9685.961.983.03
ButlerBE4.634.2068.1866.781.681.41
XavierBE4.674.2086.3680.553.402.57
RutgersB102.211.8022.7321.04-1.21-1.04
WagnerNEC2.211.7863.6464.840.600.53
NJITASun2.211.7854.1754.060.180.14
St. Francis NYNEC2.221.7541.6744.99-0.37-0.18
South CarolinaSEC2.131.7586.3679.751.551.04
IndianaB102.171.7579.1774.881.270.87
SyracuseACC2.171.7270.8366.230.900.56
UMBCAE2.121.7024.0026.73-1.10-0.79
VanderbiltSEC2.131.6956.5258.640.280.29
FordhamA102.081.6750.0048.870.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd2.081.6750.0050.100.000.00
NiagaraMAAC2.081.6725.0025.43-1.04-0.82
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.2352.1753.720.010.02
BryantNEC0.210.2224.0024.92-0.11-0.11
NebraskaB100.220.2252.0050.760.010.00
WisconsinB100.340.2262.5057.000.080.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.2150.0051.280.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.300.1941.6739.90-0.05-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.220.1712.5013.27-0.17-0.13
PurdueB100.240.1780.0077.910.140.10
George WashingtonA100.140.1775.0071.960.070.07
MaineAE0.260.1732.0031.16-0.09-0.06
MassachusettsA100.130.1743.4842.40-0.02-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1729.1726.69-0.07-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.220.1780.0081.160.130.10
TennesseeSEC0.180.1650.0048.130.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.130.1645.8344.07-0.01-0.02
IUPUISum0.210.1638.4638.50-0.05-0.04
HartfordAE0.170.1624.0024.55-0.09-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1452.1751.830.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1442.3146.12-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.150.1486.9682.620.110.09
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1483.3381.280.120.09
UMass LowellAE0.170.1437.5037.69-0.04-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.220.1460.8755.980.050.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.1459.0955.160.020.01
MissouriSEC0.180.1433.3330.28-0.06-0.05
RiderMAAC0.130.1440.0042.04-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.210.1473.0873.780.090.07
AuburnSEC0.180.1439.1335.45-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1440.9143.32-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.1480.0081.560.050.09
IowaB100.170.1479.1778.880.100.08
BrownIvy0.170.1331.5831.01-0.06-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.1226.9228.60-0.04-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.170.1233.3336.31-0.06-0.03
La SalleA100.090.1119.0520.30-0.06-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.090.1158.3357.250.020.02
DaytonA100.180.1186.9682.160.130.07
South FloridaAmer0.130.1120.0019.73-0.08-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1145.4543.23-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.170.1122.7327.39-0.09-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1172.0071.570.080.05
KentuckySEC0.090.1175.0072.610.040.05
NorthwesternB100.040.1164.0062.090.010.03
Penn St.B100.040.1150.0046.770.00-0.01
MichiganB100.170.1170.8366.750.070.04
MississippiSEC0.130.1162.5058.940.030.02
Stony BrookAE0.170.1182.6183.010.110.07
Chicago St.WAC0.080.114.357.72-0.08-0.09
Florida St.ACC0.040.1166.6763.300.010.03
MinnesotaB100.080.1125.0027.26-0.04-0.05
StanfordP120.040.1147.6244.06-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.1165.2262.370.030.03
LSUSEC0.170.1162.5059.080.040.02
MarylandB100.130.1187.5083.660.100.07
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1175.0075.340.070.05
Arizona St.P120.120.1154.1751.700.010.00
DukeACC0.170.1175.0071.840.080.05
LipscombASun0.130.0928.0030.49-0.06-0.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0962.5064.120.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.0825.0026.38-0.06-0.04
ColgatePat0.130.0843.4844.90-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0814.2920.64-0.07-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.1754.090.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.130.0872.7370.410.060.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0843.4850.64-0.010.00
ClemsonACC0.130.0858.3358.400.020.01
Miami FLACC0.130.0882.6177.580.080.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0843.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0860.0055.560.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0831.8232.68-0.02-0.03
FloridaSEC0.040.0866.6766.320.010.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.0837.5042.32-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.0870.8370.130.050.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0854.1752.000.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.0829.1733.75-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0845.4554.18-0.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0852.0054.860.000.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.460.060.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0735.0034.83-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0750.0049.760.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0730.0029.13-0.02-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.0718.1821.11-0.08-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0772.2275.600.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0776.1972.370.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0625.0029.89-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0622.2231.22-0.06-0.02
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.63-0.03-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0656.5255.820.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0634.7832.39-0.01-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0650.0052.870.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.040.0621.7422.42-0.02-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0660.8756.270.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0620.8321.68-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0686.3684.220.000.04
BradleyMVC0.040.0612.0011.95-0.03-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.040.0631.5831.68-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.8323.28-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.069.5210.67-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0647.8351.92-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0634.7833.02-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0631.8235.12-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0616.6719.49-0.06-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0614.2914.91-0.06-0.04
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.040.0622.7324.38-0.02-0.03
USCP120.090.0678.2673.130.050.03
VMISC0.090.0619.0519.67-0.05-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.08-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0673.9176.700.020.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0654.1753.810.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0550.0052.940.000.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0536.3638.97-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0579.1775.990.020.03
AkronMAC0.040.0582.6181.140.030.03
ArizonaP120.040.0579.1778.290.020.03
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0540.0042.85-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0568.0066.640.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.040.0524.0026.44-0.02-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0542.3144.53-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0525.0024.93-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0560.8760.240.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0572.0073.080.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0515.0018.13-0.06-0.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0535.0038.57-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0560.8760.670.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0550.0054.180.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0545.8343.78-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0521.7424.25-0.02-0.03
New HampshireAE0.040.0559.0956.870.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0583.3378.380.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.040.0531.8232.46-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0570.8367.930.030.02
PennIvy0.040.0538.8937.69-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0572.7367.600.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0523.8125.49-0.04-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0534.7834.97-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0552.1754.100.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0523.8122.86-0.04-0.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0565.3864.970.030.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0562.5063.450.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0577.2773.930.050.03
UTSACUSA0.040.0513.0412.96-0.03-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0531.5832.04-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0366.6764.780.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0326.3232.40-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.67-0.04-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0327.2728.16-0.03-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0340.0045.20-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0314.2924.90-0.04-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.19-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0361.9058.170.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.350.020.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.510.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0366.6765.240.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.600.010.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.620.020.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.0416.42-0.03-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.770.020.01
LibertyBSth0.040.0334.7836.53-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0358.3359.310.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0341.6742.39-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.700.020.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0373.9168.450.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0350.0045.770.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0328.5734.11-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.040.0345.4543.87-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.05-0.01-0.00
ElonCAA0.040.0350.0050.070.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.040.0370.8368.660.020.01
KansasB120.040.0382.6179.200.030.02
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.040.0333.3335.18-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0352.1753.440.000.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.460.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0329.1733.11-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0327.2726.45-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.040.0358.3363.180.010.01
TexasB120.040.0366.6762.200.010.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.730.010.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0352.1755.070.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.040.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0330.4332.26-0.02-0.01