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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1267.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Wisconsin (6.0)B10N86-75L0%0.0
11-15Wagner (218.0)NECH73-57W100%0.0
11-19Bucknell (167.0)PatH67-63W100%0.0
11-22Monmouth (292.0)MAACH64-54W100%0.0
11-26Longwood (337.0)BSthH65-47W100%0.0
11-29Penn St. (114.0)B10N82-89L0%0.0
11-30Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCN69-58W100%0.0
12-7Fordham (226.0)A10H104-58W100%0.0
12-15Syracuse (16.0)ACCH63-68L0%0.0
12-18San Francisco (68.0)WCCH81-57W100%0.0
12-21Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH96-87W100%0.0
12-28Columbia (130.0)IvyN65-59W100%0.0
12-31Xavier (47.0)BEA70-60L0%0.0
1-4Georgetown (69.0)BEA77-60L0%0.0
1-11Villanova (5.0)BEH67-74L0%0.0
1-14DePaul (154.0)BEA77-75L0%0.0
1-16Providence (40.0)BEH83-84L0%0.0
1-18Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH69-55W100%0.0
1-23Seton Hall (128.0)BEH77-76W100%0.0
1-25Butler (150.0)BEA52-69W100%0.0
1-28Creighton (10.0)BEA63-60L0%0.0
2-1Marquette (92.0)BEH74-59W100%0.0
2-4Providence (40.0)BEA76-86W100%0.0
2-9Creighton (10.0)BEH70-65W100%0.0
2-13Seton Hall (128.0)BEA67-68W100%0.0
2-16Georgetown (69.0)BEH82-60W100%0.0
2-18Butler (150.0)BEH77-52W100%0.0
2-22Villanova (5.0)BEA57-54L0%0.0
2-25Xavier (47.0)BEH53-65L0%0.0
3-2DePaul (154.0)BEH72-64W100%0.0
3-8Marquette (92.0)BEA90-91W100%0.0
3-13Providence (40.0)BEH74-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.3226.3257.1457.143.763.76
ProvidenceBE5.565.5667.7467.741.971.97
Seton HallBE4.144.1453.1253.120.260.26
CreightonBE4.114.1180.6580.652.522.52
DePaulBE4.054.0535.4835.48-1.17-1.17
XavierBE4.044.0460.0060.000.810.81
MarquetteBE4.024.0256.6756.670.540.54
VillanovaBE4.014.0186.6786.672.942.94
GeorgetownBE3.993.9955.1755.170.410.41
ButlerBE3.983.9846.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Penn St.B101.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
MonmouthMAAC1.681.6835.4835.48-0.49-0.49
SyracuseACC1.661.6683.8783.871.121.12
ColumbiaIvy1.651.6562.0762.070.400.40
DartmouthIvy1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
WisconsinB101.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
LongwoodBSth1.621.6214.8114.81-1.14-1.14
BucknellPat1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
FordhamA101.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
WagnerNEC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Georgia TechACC1.591.5950.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC1.561.5665.5265.520.480.48
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
PennIvy0.240.2428.5728.57-0.10-0.10
PrincetonIvy0.210.2170.3770.370.090.09
BrownIvy0.210.2151.8551.850.010.01
La SalleA100.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1922.5822.58-0.10-0.10
YaleIvy0.180.1851.8551.850.010.01
ColgatePat0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
IowaB100.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
MinnesotaB100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
VermontAE0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
IllinoisB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.150.1575.0075.000.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
MaristMAAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
HarvardIvy0.140.1486.2186.210.100.10
CornellIvy0.140.143.703.70-0.13-0.13
High PointBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Ohio St.B100.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
MassachusettsA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
IndianaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
NebraskaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
MaineAE0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
USCP120.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1087.1087.100.070.07
ClemsonACC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00