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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:95.5
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:4
Current SOS:12
Current Record:9-10
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-8
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:25



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1132.00.01%
18-1234.50.11%
17-1344.10.48%
16-1453.52.20%
15-1563.47.79%
14-1675.517.35%
13-1788.825.59%
12-18104.224.16%
11-19120.515.75%
10-20138.25.60%
9-21153.90.95%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10New Orleans (217.6)SlndH77-61W100%0.0
11-14Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH80-55W100%0.0
11-16Nebraska (102.7)B10H79-56W100%0.0
11-23Oregon St. (144.1)P12N77-82W100%0.0
11-24Missouri (45.8)SECN82-90L0%0.0
11-26UCF (69.1)AmerN43-46W100%0.0
12-2Sacred Heart (315.8)NECH90-55W100%0.0
12-5Grand Canyon (148.5)WACN60-68W100%0.0
12-8Arizona St. (31.6)P12N82-70L0%0.0
12-17Iona (95.1)MAACH69-59W100%0.0
12-20Saint Joseph's (150.4)A10N77-73W100%0.0
12-28Providence (44.3)BEH72-94L0%0.0
12-31Seton Hall (25.7)BEA75-70L0%0.0
1-3Creighton (29.5)BEA78-71L0%0.0
1-6DePaul (187.4)BEH74-91L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (144.1)BEH66-69L0%0.0
1-13Villanova (1.9)BEH71-78L0%0.0
1-17Xavier (6.2)BEA88-82L0%0.0
1-20Georgetown (144.1)BEA93-89L0%0.0
1-23Creighton (29.5)BEH0-034%-4.6
1-27Butler (37.6)BEA0-025%-7.7
1-30Xavier (6.2)BEH0-032%-5.3
2-3Duke (3.0)ACCH0-016%-11.1
2-7Villanova (1.9)BEA0-05%-18.2
2-10Marquette (52.9)BEH0-050%0.0
2-14DePaul (187.4)BEA0-056%1.5
2-21Marquette (52.9)BEA0-028%-6.4
2-24Seton Hall (25.7)BEH0-043%-2.0
2-28Butler (37.6)BEH0-046%-1.2
3-3Providence (44.3)BEA0-032%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.4326.3241.1837.22-4.66-6.73
ProvidenceBE2.964.2468.4258.831.090.75
VillanovaBE2.984.2494.4489.812.643.38
XavierBE3.044.2485.0079.782.132.52
CreightonBE3.164.2473.6869.841.491.68
DePaulBE3.034.2438.8931.59-0.67-1.56
Seton HallBE2.964.2173.6867.171.401.45
ButlerBE0.544.2166.6762.930.181.09
MarquetteBE0.474.2168.4260.500.170.88
GeorgetownBE5.534.2064.7150.681.630.06
Central ConnecticutNEC2.701.7855.0050.140.270.01
Arizona St.P122.761.7877.7875.331.540.90
Sacred HeartNEC2.701.7731.5834.63-0.99-0.55
NebraskaB102.771.7566.6761.470.920.40
Oregon St.P122.701.7261.1152.610.600.09
UCFAmer2.761.7272.2262.931.230.45
Saint Joseph'sA102.701.7252.9453.420.160.12
MissouriSEC2.701.6964.7161.880.790.40
DukeACC0.001.6789.4785.280.001.18
Grand CanyonWAC2.631.6773.6873.761.250.79
IonaMAAC2.631.6763.1666.340.690.54
New OrleansSlnd2.631.6740.0047.05-0.53-0.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2242.1144.98-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.320.1923.5332.57-0.17-0.07
WagnerNEC0.200.1964.7164.560.060.06
OregonP120.210.1765.0063.810.060.05
IllinoisB100.270.1745.0043.62-0.03-0.02
NorthwesternB100.260.1755.0050.370.030.00
UtahP120.210.1663.1659.720.060.03
Rhode IslandA100.200.1683.3381.450.130.10
RiderMAAC0.190.1665.0065.330.060.05
Saint LouisA100.140.1647.3746.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.120.1650.0046.270.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.250.1665.0054.600.080.01
MaineAE0.340.1410.5314.83-0.27-0.10
UCLAP120.140.1465.0062.050.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.190.1457.1460.410.030.03
ColoradoP120.200.1460.0053.720.040.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.1442.1146.09-0.03-0.01
TempleAmer0.210.1452.6351.740.010.00
VCUA100.140.1460.0059.710.030.03
WashingtonP120.070.1470.0061.460.030.03
PurdueB100.060.1490.4888.390.050.10
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1452.9459.250.010.03
RutgersB100.130.1355.0046.650.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.1250.0051.390.000.00
HoustonAmer0.150.1178.9573.000.090.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1110.0016.77-0.17-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.070.110.003.06-0.07-0.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.200.1115.0020.28-0.14-0.07
SyracuseACC0.200.1168.4261.280.080.03
ArizonaP120.140.1180.0078.940.080.06
Washington St.P120.070.1147.3741.43-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.1178.9577.380.000.06
Long Beach St.BW0.270.1140.0043.34-0.05-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.130.1178.9569.820.080.04
BaylorB120.130.1157.8953.280.020.01
BryantNEC0.130.119.5217.12-0.10-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1189.4785.550.100.08
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1152.6347.380.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.140.1180.9583.260.080.07
La SalleA100.070.1140.0042.69-0.01-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1140.0042.51-0.01-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.1150.0050.860.000.00
MassachusettsA100.140.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.130.1185.7183.760.090.07
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1127.7841.03-0.06-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1133.3335.21-0.06-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1136.8435.58-0.04-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.1121.0523.52-0.04-0.06
IndianaB100.070.1160.0052.880.010.01
MinnesotaB100.130.1163.6457.610.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.1123.5328.71-0.03-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1144.4450.08-0.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0952.9455.030.000.01
MemphisAmer0.150.0965.0058.540.050.01
SMUAmer0.150.0970.0070.610.060.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.095.8819.39-0.13-0.05
RichmondA100.140.0931.5834.35-0.05-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.200.089.5217.86-0.16-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.0855.5657.250.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.200.0844.4446.66-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0866.6766.030.000.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0836.8431.11-0.02-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0866.6755.900.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0842.1145.98-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0861.1153.190.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0847.0641.38-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0855.0050.330.010.00
USCP120.070.0871.4368.300.030.03
YaleIvy0.130.0841.1847.61-0.02-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.080.008.42-0.13-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0829.4133.93-0.02-0.03
MaristMAAC0.130.0821.0521.99-0.07-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.130.0829.4134.78-0.05-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0841.1839.14-0.01-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0863.1661.000.020.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.130.0844.4444.91-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.0822.2227.46-0.08-0.04
NJITASun0.130.0838.8942.58-0.03-0.01
PennIvy0.070.0864.7162.690.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0852.9460.230.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.0872.2268.930.060.03
BrownIvy0.130.0850.0045.130.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0866.6768.540.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0866.6763.130.000.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0881.8276.870.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0858.8263.210.000.02
TexasB120.000.0865.0058.600.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.067.6920.08-0.07-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.24-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.067.1414.820.00-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.067.6923.24-0.07-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.0680.0078.870.090.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.200.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.0610.5326.29-0.11-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0633.3333.76-0.05-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.250.040.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.76-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.140.0616.6716.15-0.09-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.070.0668.4259.020.030.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0617.6527.34-0.04-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0625.0026.030.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0668.4264.160.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.130.0661.9063.170.030.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0638.8944.07-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.070.0645.0041.29-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.130.0630.0032.58-0.05-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0673.6868.040.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.880.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0657.1453.040.010.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.26-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0628.5729.93-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.75-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0635.0026.13-0.02-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.750.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.970.030.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0660.0062.010.010.01
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.870.000.03
West VirginiaB120.140.0680.0076.040.090.03
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0542.1132.46-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0573.6871.600.030.02
HartfordAE0.130.0550.0045.930.00-0.00
KansasB120.130.0584.2179.760.090.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0531.5840.82-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.130.0533.3336.93-0.04-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.130.0533.3333.87-0.04-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0571.4374.670.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0520.0032.24-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0577.7879.160.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0525.0043.18-0.03-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0557.8959.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0516.6724.900.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0568.4263.610.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0576.1972.570.000.02
Penn St.B100.060.0561.9055.820.010.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0540.0030.880.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0536.8445.19-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.750.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0570.0060.400.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0542.1140.460.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0542.8635.220.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0568.4270.820.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0352.9452.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.900.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0383.3381.420.050.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0361.9065.150.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0343.7549.110.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.850.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.150.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0310.0019.62-0.05-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.03-0.02-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.19-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.26-0.07-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0317.6534.76-0.04-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0347.0654.68-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.530.020.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.84-0.04-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.250.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0333.3339.89-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4776.990.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.93-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0361.9068.000.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.12-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.34-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.94-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0370.0058.090.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.71-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.93-0.04-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.70-0.02-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0343.7540.91-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0357.8946.220.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.210.030.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0375.0065.320.030.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.87-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.05-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.220.020.01
OhioMAC0.070.0347.0648.43-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0335.0031.820.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.44-0.05-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.830.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.020.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0326.3230.45-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.77-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0366.6767.670.020.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.870.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.430.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7160.010.020.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.790.020.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.180.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.33-0.04-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0352.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.660.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6243.940.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.410.000.01
MichiganB100.060.0376.1970.800.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.350.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.400.000.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.110.000.02