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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


St. John's

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:49
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:246



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19140.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH100-53W100%0.0
11-14Binghamton (311.0)AEH77-61W100%0.0
11-18Minnesota (20.0)B10A92-86L0%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (51.0)B10N73-62L0%0.0
11-24VCU (22.0)A10N69-75L0%0.0
11-25Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAN63-55L0%0.0
11-29Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH72-79L0%0.0
12-2Tulane (296.0)AmerA75-95W100%0.0
12-5Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH76-70W100%0.0
12-8Fordham (215.0)A10H90-62W100%0.0
12-11LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECN74-73L0%0.0
12-18Penn St. (101.0)B10H76-92L0%0.0
12-21Syracuse (84.0)ACCA60-93W100%0.0
12-29Butler (15.0)BEH76-73W100%0.0
1-1DePaul (239.0)BEA73-79W100%0.0
1-4Creighton (26.0)BEH72-85L0%0.0
1-7Xavier (37.0)BEA97-82L0%0.0
1-9Georgetown (106.0)BEA83-55L0%0.0
1-14Villanova (1.0)BEH57-70L0%0.0
1-16DePaul (239.0)BEH78-68W100%0.0
1-22Seton Hall (43.0)BEA86-73L0%0.0
1-25Providence (56.0)BEA86-91W100%0.0
1-29Xavier (37.0)BEH77-82L0%0.0
2-1Marquette (60.0)BEH86-72W100%0.0
2-4Villanova (1.0)BEA92-79L0%0.0
2-11Seton Hall (43.0)BEH78-70W100%0.0
2-15Butler (15.0)BEA110-86L0%0.0
2-21Marquette (60.0)BEA93-71L0%0.0
2-25Georgetown (106.0)BEH86-80W100%0.0
2-28Creighton (26.0)BEA82-68L0%0.0
3-4Providence (56.0)BEH75-86L0%0.0
3-8Georgetown (106.0)BEH74-73W100%0.0
3-9Villanova (1.0)BEH67-108L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. John'sBE26.3926.3938.4138.41-6.12-6.12
VillanovaBE5.445.4490.3290.324.394.39
GeorgetownBE5.365.3644.8344.83-0.55-0.55
CreightonBE4.034.0370.9770.971.691.69
XavierBE4.024.0259.3859.380.750.75
Seton HallBE3.993.9966.6766.671.331.33
ProvidenceBE3.923.9263.3363.331.041.04
DePaulBE3.923.9230.0030.00-1.57-1.57
MarquetteBE3.923.9262.0762.070.950.95
ButlerBE3.913.9175.8675.862.022.02
MinnesotaB101.651.6571.8871.880.720.72
Michigan St.B101.631.6356.2556.250.200.20
Penn St.B101.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
Delaware St.MEAC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
VCUA101.591.5975.7675.760.820.82
SyracuseACC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.571.5727.5927.59-0.70-0.70
BinghamtonAE1.561.5632.1432.14-0.56-0.56
LIU BrooklynNEC1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
FordhamA101.541.5440.0040.00-0.31-0.31
Old DominionCUSA1.541.5460.0060.000.310.31
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.521.5237.0437.04-0.39-0.39
TulaneAmer1.521.5220.0020.00-0.91-0.91
WisconsinB100.280.2873.5373.530.130.13
HowardMEAC0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
RutgersB100.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
IndianaB100.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
NorthwesternB100.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
MichiganB100.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
TempleAmer0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Ohio St.B100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
NebraskaB100.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.150.1584.8584.850.100.10
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
RichmondA100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
George MasonA100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.120.1219.3519.35-0.08-0.08
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
LafayettePat0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
LehighPat0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0460.7160.710.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01