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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:61.9
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:82
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-316.60.16%
26-420.80.91%
25-526.22.99%
24-632.67.88%
23-740.313.51%
22-850.019.16%
21-961.419.67%
20-1073.716.16%
19-1188.111.06%
18-12102.95.21%
17-13119.52.18%
16-14133.60.82%
15-15159.70.21%
14-16169.60.05%
13-17188.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12St. Francis PA (251.0)NECH92-82W100%0.0
11-17Florida (9.6)SECA73-66L0%0.0
11-21Little Rock (161.3)SBN68-65L0%0.0
11-22Central Michigan (157.8)MACN102-71W100%0.0
11-23Pepperdine (185.5)WCCN63-89W100%0.0
11-30Siena (144.9)MAACH81-74W100%0.0
12-3Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-084%12.1
12-6Hofstra (237.3)CAAA0-083%11.6
12-10UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH0-065%4.7
12-17Niagara (304.2)MAACN0-094%18.4
12-19Army (208.3)PatH0-091%15.8
12-22Canisius (211.7)MAACH0-092%16.8
12-30Massachusetts (108.4)A10A0-059%2.7
1-3Dayton (36.4)A10H0-050%-0.1
1-7George Mason (200.3)A10H0-089%14.7
1-11Richmond (173.8)A10A0-064%4.4
1-14Fordham (205.9)A10H0-086%13.2
1-17Saint Louis (278.6)A10A0-087%13.4
1-24Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10H0-078%9.2
1-28Rhode Island (33.6)A10A0-034%-5.1
2-1Duquesne (255.5)A10A0-081%10.5
2-4VCU (31.1)A10H0-050%0.0
2-8Saint Louis (278.6)A10H0-095%19.6
2-11George Washington (176.1)A10A0-068%5.5
2-15La Salle (107.7)A10H0-077%8.7
2-18Dayton (36.4)A10A0-030%-6.2
2-22Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10A0-060%3.1
2-25Duquesne (255.5)A10H0-092%16.7
2-28Davidson (48.3)A10A0-038%-3.8
3-4Massachusetts (108.4)A10H0-077%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1029.1726.1166.6770.379.7210.64
DuquesneA100.834.0037.5036.10-0.21-1.11
Saint LouisA100.003.9433.3327.96-0.00-1.74
DaytonA100.003.9366.6773.360.001.84
MassachusettsA100.003.9283.3359.860.000.77
Saint Joseph'sA100.003.9150.0047.910.00-0.16
Rhode IslandA100.002.3671.4370.470.000.97
La SalleA100.002.3560.0052.790.000.13
FordhamA100.002.3357.1444.720.00-0.25
George WashingtonA100.602.3357.1444.550.09-0.25
George MasonA100.002.3257.1444.040.00-0.28
VCUA100.002.3185.7179.090.001.34
RichmondA100.002.2757.1449.050.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.002.2783.3369.110.000.87
CanisiusMAAC0.001.8633.3342.63-0.00-0.27
SienaMAAC8.331.8333.3352.19-2.780.08
NiagaraMAAC0.001.8016.6727.72-0.00-0.80
Central MichiganMAC9.861.7880.0058.375.920.30
BuffaloMAC0.001.7840.0052.17-0.000.08
Little RockSB9.721.7550.0056.390.000.22
HofstraCAA0.001.7557.1441.370.00-0.30
PepperdineWCC9.861.7260.0036.481.97-0.47
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.7283.3378.630.000.99
St. Francis PANEC8.331.7250.0045.490.00-0.16
FloridaSEC8.331.7085.7174.505.950.83
ArmyPat0.001.6733.3346.88-0.00-0.10
RiderMAAC0.000.2450.0047.990.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.2242.8636.82-0.00-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2233.3338.19-0.00-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1983.3362.080.000.05
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1971.4371.570.000.08
MaristMAAC0.000.1942.8635.68-0.00-0.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1960.0052.760.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1725.0039.28-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1742.8650.36-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.1750.0052.330.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.690.1740.0055.44-0.140.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.170.0028.15-0.00-0.07
TempleAmer0.000.1671.4363.570.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0086.250.000.12
IonaMAAC0.000.1660.0070.140.000.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1616.6734.31-0.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1440.0037.65-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1450.0051.820.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1475.0067.660.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1462.5056.500.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1440.0040.65-0.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.1442.8647.69-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1450.0054.490.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1466.6756.020.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1471.4346.010.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.1220.0034.22-0.00-0.04
LehighPat0.000.1233.3367.01-0.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1216.6729.36-0.00-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1242.8638.05-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1150.0033.010.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1160.0057.170.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.040.000.09
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6736.45-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1133.3353.85-0.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3380.700.000.07
LafayettePat0.000.1133.3331.87-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.520.1150.0053.050.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1142.8642.47-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.1140.0057.97-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.600.110.0024.25-0.60-0.06
ColgatePat0.000.1120.0041.31-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3340.49-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.1150.0049.010.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.1171.4368.660.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1160.0070.500.000.05
ElonCAA0.000.1183.3358.030.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.1157.1448.240.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.110.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1162.5043.960.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.110.0024.32-0.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0912.5048.98-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.830.0916.6735.65-0.56-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0983.3357.990.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0920.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0985.7168.390.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.830.0914.2929.15-0.60-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0966.6761.340.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.30-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0980.0068.320.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.090.0021.15-0.00-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0850.0053.530.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.520.08100.0091.060.520.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0820.0032.60-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.08100.0083.120.000.06
BelmontOVC0.520.0840.0061.37-0.100.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.520.0850.0071.330.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0860.0067.410.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0017.30-0.00-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0866.6765.810.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0063.95-0.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0871.4356.280.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0880.0055.340.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0816.6730.27-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0866.6754.380.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.320.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0883.3374.620.000.04
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.830.0625.0024.66-0.42-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.690.0633.3348.71-0.23-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0628.5743.62-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0671.4358.670.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.690.0620.0054.94-0.420.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
KansasB120.600.0685.7176.170.430.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0550.0042.420.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0587.5078.680.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0585.7173.010.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0583.3344.770.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0528.5733.92-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.630.000.02
AlbanyAE0.600.0550.0060.380.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0583.3362.840.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.050.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.050.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0528.5730.29-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.770.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.520.0571.4365.740.220.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0080.780.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0525.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.600.0550.0064.840.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0542.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0550.0043.490.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0585.7155.890.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0557.1455.810.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0557.1440.590.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0550.0046.670.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.050.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0571.4386.030.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
NJITASun0.830.0342.8650.32-0.120.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0357.1436.050.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.690.0333.3335.92-0.23-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.830.0340.0050.88-0.170.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.690.0325.0040.37-0.35-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.690.0314.2928.66-0.50-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0333.3340.39-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0314.2933.07-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0385.7163.780.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0074.460.000.01
CornellIvy0.600.0328.5730.63-0.26-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.520.0314.2931.71-0.37-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Seton HallBE0.520.0371.4354.520.220.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01