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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:50.3
Current RPI:50
Expected SOS:88
Current SOS:72
Current Record:12-6
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-621.71.64%
23-729.07.83%
22-837.219.31%
21-945.825.87%
20-1054.823.04%
19-1165.214.29%
18-1277.85.94%
17-1392.91.63%
16-14110.90.37%
15-15132.00.06%
13-17163.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Niagara (187.6)MAACH75-77L0%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (292.8)SWACH72-58W100%0.0
11-20Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACH96-48W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (43.3)B10N61-63W100%0.0
11-25TCU (28.3)B12N79-89L0%0.0
11-29Siena (259.9)MAACA55-75W100%0.0
12-2Buffalo (34.0)MACA62-73W100%0.0
12-6Canisius (141.9)MAACA65-73W100%0.0
12-9Yale (203.6)IvyH75-67W100%0.0
12-16Vermont (57.0)AEN81-79W100%0.0
12-20Northeastern (80.9)CAAH84-65W100%0.0
12-22Syracuse (43.7)ACCA57-60W100%0.0
12-30Massachusetts (201.1)A10H98-78W100%0.0
1-3Dayton (112.2)A10A82-72L0%0.0
1-6Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10A85-78L0%0.0
1-10Fordham (280.6)A10H77-61W100%0.0
1-13Rhode Island (14.4)A10A87-73L0%0.0
1-19Davidson (82.5)A10A83-73L0%0.0
1-24Saint Joseph's (150.6)A10H0-077%8.1
1-28George Washington (201.7)A10H0-089%13.5
1-31George Mason (224.6)A10A0-079%8.8
2-3Duquesne (213.1)A10A0-071%6.1
2-7Saint Louis (178.1)A10H0-083%10.8
2-10Richmond (201.6)A10H0-087%12.7
2-13La Salle (181.9)A10A0-063%3.6
2-16Rhode Island (14.4)A10H0-046%-1.1
2-21Duquesne (213.1)A10H0-087%12.5
2-24VCU (128.6)A10A0-052%0.6
2-27Davidson (82.5)A10H0-062%3.4
3-3Saint Louis (178.1)A10A0-066%4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.3326.1170.0069.9010.5310.39
DuquesneA100.223.9470.0060.660.090.84
DavidsonA102.853.9156.2560.870.360.85
Rhode IslandA102.923.9182.3581.741.892.48
Saint LouisA100.233.9147.3748.44-0.01-0.12
Saint Joseph'sA102.993.8847.0650.93-0.180.07
La SalleA100.222.3640.0042.91-0.04-0.33
MassachusettsA103.072.3652.6348.340.16-0.08
RichmondA100.302.3631.5835.09-0.11-0.70
DaytonA103.002.3644.4449.26-0.33-0.04
FordhamA102.942.3633.3330.06-0.98-0.94
George WashingtonA100.242.3345.0044.56-0.02-0.25
George MasonA100.312.3045.0042.01-0.03-0.37
VCUA100.222.2760.0060.080.040.46
CanisiusMAAC2.921.8063.1662.350.770.45
NiagaraMAAC2.991.8055.0051.670.300.06
VermontAE3.001.7877.7879.781.671.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.921.7816.6721.67-1.95-1.01
SienaMAAC2.991.7831.5832.74-1.10-0.61
MarylandB103.001.7573.6867.571.420.62
BuffaloMAC2.991.7576.4777.491.580.96
Jackson St.SWAC2.921.7241.1844.98-0.52-0.17
SyracuseACC2.921.7272.2263.311.300.46
YaleIvy2.921.7243.7549.21-0.37-0.03
TCUB122.861.7072.2264.451.270.49
NortheasternCAA2.851.6966.6765.440.950.52
IonaMAAC0.440.2763.1666.880.110.09
HarvardIvy0.370.2537.5046.63-0.09-0.02
BucknellPat0.360.2561.9068.010.090.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.2231.5830.00-0.13-0.09
VirginiaACC0.230.2094.4485.440.210.14
CornellIvy0.210.1933.3333.36-0.07-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.220.1927.7840.88-0.10-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1944.4448.91-0.02-0.00
PennIvy0.070.1764.7162.780.020.04
MaineAE0.290.1710.5314.86-0.23-0.12
ManhattanMAAC0.210.1647.3748.17-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.210.1621.0521.99-0.12-0.09
College of CharlestonCAA0.220.1466.6765.620.070.04
NevadaMWC0.230.1485.7182.070.170.09
DelawareCAA0.230.1447.3743.04-0.01-0.02
AkronMAC0.230.1447.0644.91-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.1452.9460.270.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.150.1470.0060.460.060.03
ToledoMAC0.300.1466.6767.690.100.05
Holy CrossPat0.220.1426.3230.43-0.10-0.05
VMISC0.080.1425.0024.17-0.04-0.07
AlbanyAE0.220.1470.0068.050.090.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.1452.6350.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.1457.1460.400.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.070.1338.8944.14-0.01-0.02
RiderMAAC0.140.1365.0065.370.040.04
BrownIvy0.240.1150.0045.130.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1122.2227.33-0.09-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.140.1121.4326.21-0.08-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.150.1125.0028.25-0.07-0.05
HofstraCAA0.220.1157.8959.470.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0010.650.00-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.1155.5656.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.1121.0544.26-0.13-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.1164.7159.980.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1178.9576.760.080.06
Virginia TechACC0.150.1168.4257.780.050.02
OhioMAC0.140.1147.0648.44-0.01-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.1152.9452.230.000.00
New HampshireAE0.140.1129.4138.15-0.06-0.03
Penn St.B100.070.1161.9055.770.020.01
TempleAmer0.080.1152.6351.730.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1168.4255.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.070.1140.0030.87-0.01-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.0912.5025.47-0.12-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0810.5316.75-0.11-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0833.3337.22-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0830.0036.48-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.140.0852.6351.090.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0857.8966.250.020.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0836.8444.12-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0810.5327.310.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0880.0075.050.050.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0843.7554.090.000.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0875.0067.890.040.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0863.1666.000.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0830.0030.990.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.230.0861.1158.750.050.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0844.4444.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.0857.8953.190.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.150.0868.4254.090.050.01
ButlerBE0.070.0866.6763.070.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.0847.0641.45-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.0838.8946.68-0.03-0.01
UMBCAE0.140.0858.8258.360.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.080.009.150.00-0.07
Iowa St.B120.150.0861.1147.260.03-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0829.4139.62-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0844.4442.740.00-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0875.0070.270.030.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0855.0050.370.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.140.0829.4130.67-0.06-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.7490.310.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0833.3335.19-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0844.4441.15-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0884.2178.170.050.05
Florida St.ACC0.150.0873.6869.610.070.03
MinnesotaB100.210.0863.6457.640.060.01
KansasB120.150.0884.2179.740.100.05
Kansas St.B120.070.0873.6862.720.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0877.7869.360.040.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0876.4769.020.000.03
TexasB120.070.0863.1657.620.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4258.990.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0616.6724.29-0.05-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.440.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0620.0028.72-0.05-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0620.0032.260.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.150.0675.0070.690.080.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.960.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0683.3384.230.050.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0539.47-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0627.7831.67-0.07-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0650.0055.650.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.700.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.06-0.03
Ohio St.B100.140.0680.9576.520.090.03
WisconsinB100.080.0650.0046.260.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.150.069.5217.08-0.12-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0652.6343.120.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.76-0.04-0.01
LehighPat0.150.0638.8944.75-0.03-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0626.6729.04-0.07-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
MercerSC0.080.0644.4454.89-0.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0625.0028.02-0.08-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0618.7536.76-0.04-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0643.7545.340.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0689.4785.520.060.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0621.0525.980.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0652.6346.880.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9572.990.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.0083.180.050.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.0670.5975.930.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.13-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0657.8950.810.000.00
PurdueB100.070.0690.4888.380.060.04
RutgersB100.070.0657.8947.140.01-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0616.6724.46-0.05-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.1143.500.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0647.3742.18-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
Washington St.P120.080.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0589.4777.030.060.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0546.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.140.0566.6765.530.050.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0568.4260.530.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.140.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.020.01
BYUWCC0.140.0580.9576.230.080.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0550.0054.850.000.01
OklahomaB120.150.0577.7867.900.080.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0568.4254.090.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0550.0048.740.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0533.3336.920.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0578.9571.810.000.02
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.039.5217.940.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0355.0049.070.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0352.9457.320.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.50-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.870.020.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0327.7838.13-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.04-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0357.8950.680.000.00
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0373.6867.950.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6759.780.000.01
NJITASun0.080.0338.8942.60-0.02-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.940.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.970.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.980.030.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.900.020.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.540.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.530.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.650.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0317.6519.330.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.120.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.210.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.040.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6763.420.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.930.020.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6765.360.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0322.2227.510.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4257.770.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.050.020.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.46-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.630.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.900.020.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.550.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.35-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0346.6758.780.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01