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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:51.0
Current RPI:49
Expected SOS:79
Current SOS:82
Current Record:15-6
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-622.01.30%
22-727.79.19%
21-838.724.62%
20-951.131.56%
19-1062.722.18%
18-1174.48.86%
17-1288.52.06%
16-13103.60.21%
15-14123.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Binghamton (307.7)AEH63-53W100%0.0
11-17Syracuse (53.0)ACCA79-66L0%0.0
11-21Loyola MD (231.0)PatH94-82W100%0.0
11-24Canisius (216.9)MAACA73-77W100%0.0
11-28Hofstra (74.5)CAAH83-89L0%0.0
12-2Buffalo (86.0)MACA58-60W100%0.0
12-5Ohio (108.9)MACH81-68W100%0.0
12-8Vermont (150.4)AEH80-68W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina St. (210.4)MEACH64-45W100%0.0
12-22Siena (100.1)MAACA73-70L0%0.0
12-30Niagara (308.0)MAACH82-68W100%0.0
1-2Davidson (71.2)A10H97-85W100%0.0
1-6George Mason (184.2)A10A58-77W100%0.0
1-9Massachusetts (194.6)A10A77-88W100%0.0
1-13Rhode Island (101.3)A10H69-64W100%0.0
1-16Duquesne (113.9)A10A95-88L0%0.0
1-19Dayton (13.3)A10H79-85L0%0.0
1-24VCU (37.1)A10A84-76L0%0.0
1-31Richmond (108.7)A10H84-68W100%0.0
2-3Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10A73-83W100%0.0
2-7Saint Louis (200.1)A10H65-62W100%0.0
2-10Fordham (187.9)A10A0-060%2.6
2-13George Washington (45.0)A10H0-053%0.8
2-17La Salle (258.6)A10A0-084%10.8
2-20Dayton (13.3)A10A0-019%-9.7
2-24Duquesne (113.9)A10H0-076%7.7
2-27Massachusetts (194.6)A10H0-084%10.9
3-2Saint Joseph's (32.4)A10H0-051%0.2
3-5Saint Louis (200.1)A10A0-074%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.1026.1271.4368.8611.199.86
Saint Joseph'sA102.804.1186.3682.632.032.68
DuquesneA102.824.1161.9056.030.670.50
DaytonA102.654.0885.7181.781.902.59
Saint LouisA102.814.0838.1034.93-0.67-1.23
MassachusettsA102.714.0542.8641.60-0.39-0.68
La SalleA100.532.4720.0020.61-0.32-1.45
Rhode IslandA102.652.4559.0958.500.480.42
VCUA102.762.4272.7373.031.251.11
FordhamA100.422.4155.0052.730.040.13
George MasonA102.762.3936.3635.29-0.75-0.70
George WashingtonA100.492.3978.2675.340.271.21
DavidsonA102.812.3863.1660.110.740.48
RichmondA102.702.3657.1456.360.390.30
BuffaloMAC2.631.9561.9060.910.630.43
SienaMAAC2.681.9262.5062.920.670.50
NiagaraMAAC2.631.9225.0025.39-1.31-0.95
CanisiusMAAC2.581.8945.8346.82-0.22-0.12
VermontAE2.581.8756.5259.500.340.35
HofstraCAA2.481.8163.6462.940.680.47
BinghamtonAE2.481.8122.7325.55-1.36-0.89
OhioMAC2.381.7865.0061.550.710.41
South Carolina St.MEAC2.441.7852.3855.270.120.19
Loyola MDPat2.431.7536.3638.48-0.66-0.40
SyracuseACC2.381.7265.2261.310.720.39
ManhattanMAAC0.340.2342.8641.97-0.05-0.04
RiderMAAC0.240.2340.0042.11-0.05-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.290.2279.1780.760.170.14
Miami OHMAC0.160.2131.8230.48-0.06-0.08
UMBCAE0.210.2024.0026.41-0.11-0.10
HartfordAE0.200.2026.0926.50-0.10-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.190.2054.1754.130.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.310.2056.5262.780.040.05
MaristMAAC0.240.2022.7324.73-0.13-0.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.290.2038.1037.44-0.07-0.05
IonaMAAC0.190.1960.8760.730.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1938.1041.93-0.05-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.260.1880.9582.700.160.12
ColgatePat0.200.1845.4546.10-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.210.1754.1755.570.020.02
AlbanyAE0.250.1775.0075.850.120.09
TowsonCAA0.160.1565.2259.750.050.03
AkronMAC0.160.1581.8280.030.100.09
MaineAE0.150.1534.7834.00-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.160.1513.6418.14-0.11-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1547.8348.91-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.220.1463.6459.440.060.03
PennIvy0.160.1438.8937.66-0.03-0.04
PittsburghACC0.160.1476.1968.220.090.05
Florida St.ACC0.160.1469.5764.890.060.04
North FloridaASun0.160.1465.2267.140.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1263.6460.940.050.03
Ball St.MAC0.160.1263.6459.240.040.02
LafayettePat0.100.1222.7324.04-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1247.6252.07-0.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1230.4335.11-0.04-0.03
ArmyPat0.160.1252.1753.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.1252.3847.040.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.150.1255.0053.180.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.100.1231.8232.67-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.110.1271.4369.840.050.05
UCFAmer0.110.1252.3845.700.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.210.1270.8369.500.090.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1236.8441.44-0.04-0.02
AmericanPat0.160.1230.4331.89-0.06-0.04
LehighPat0.200.1233.3337.25-0.07-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1127.7834.50-0.05-0.04
CornellIvy0.200.1142.1140.16-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.160.1165.2266.090.050.04
Georgia TechACC0.160.1152.1751.590.010.00
Penn St.B100.100.1150.0046.740.00-0.01
DukeACC0.200.1173.9170.040.100.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0931.8236.14-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0938.1040.73-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.110.0960.8758.470.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.0950.0052.350.000.00
DelawareCAA0.110.0921.7423.32-0.06-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.0945.8346.66-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.0963.1658.790.040.02
LongwoodBSth0.160.0922.7324.97-0.09-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.0929.1733.15-0.06-0.03
BucknellPat0.100.0954.5558.140.010.01
ElonCAA0.150.0952.1750.420.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.100.0939.1338.34-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0952.1751.960.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0950.0049.440.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.110.0959.0960.070.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0930.4326.50-0.02-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.110.0982.6178.690.070.05
St. John'sBE0.100.0926.0923.72-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.050.0963.6459.840.010.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0986.9686.370.040.06
HarvardIvy0.100.0935.0038.52-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0960.8760.240.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0982.6177.740.040.05
MississippiSEC0.110.0965.2259.020.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.0975.0070.940.050.04
VirginiaACC0.100.0882.6178.050.070.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.0854.1749.270.01-0.00
WisconsinB100.150.0860.8755.840.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.36-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.069.5213.52-0.09-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0635.0035.98-0.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0613.0413.54-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0640.9149.27-0.02-0.00
CaliforniaP120.110.0665.2262.880.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0640.0045.51-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0662.5062.450.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0666.6762.620.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.400.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0634.7840.92-0.03-0.01
MercerSC0.110.0672.7370.750.050.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0681.8276.740.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0650.0051.170.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.0633.3335.48-0.04-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0621.7422.74-0.06-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.030.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0652.1755.930.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0621.0527.82-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.3685.030.040.04
CreightonBE0.050.0662.5059.780.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
IowaB100.050.0682.6180.580.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.13-0.04-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0617.3920.66-0.04-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.80-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0672.0070.510.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.37-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.15-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0656.5260.000.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0645.4546.30-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0672.7376.360.020.03
XavierBE0.050.0691.3084.380.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.100.0631.5831.79-0.04-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.0654.1755.080.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.0631.5831.05-0.04-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0670.8370.840.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.210.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.930.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.710.020.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0650.0051.270.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.01-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0352.3854.010.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0051.910.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.58-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.470.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0026.74-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.21-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6770.540.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0328.5731.36-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0320.8323.63-0.03-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.19-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0347.6252.67-0.000.00
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0350.0051.170.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0366.6763.420.020.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.07-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.040.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0365.2261.450.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.060.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.02
StetsonASun0.050.0323.8127.69-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.120.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0382.6179.550.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.650.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.37-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
DePaulBE0.000.0334.7834.45-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0354.1752.340.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.510.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.50-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.810.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.09-0.04-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0321.7420.35-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0373.9169.830.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.66-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.050.0343.4837.22-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.030.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01