St. Bonaventure

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	72.0
Current RPI:	72
Expected SOS:	112
Current SOS:	112
Current Record:	20-11
Expected Record:	20-11
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	119
Expected OOC SOS:	191

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-11	72.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Cornell (181.0)	Ivy	H	79-58	W	100%
11-18	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	67-64	L	0%
11-21	Siena (218.0)	MAAC	A	58-64	W	100%
11-27	Virginia Tech (116.0)	ACC	A	73-64	L	0%
12-1	Arkansas St. (222.0)	SB	H	52-58	L	0%
12-3	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	60-66	W	100%
12-7	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	48-43	L	0%
12-10	Canisius (333.0)	MAAC	H	81-62	W	100%
12-18	Loyola MD (77.0)	MAAC	H	76-66	W	100%
12-20	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	N	65-67	L	0%
12-23	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	H	82-58	W	100%
12-30	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	A	70-72	W	100%
1-4	George Washington (188.0)	A10	H	66-56	W	100%
1-7	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	66-52	L	0%
1-11	Dayton (81.0)	A10	H	81-73	W	100%
1-14	Xavier (41.0)	A10	A	77-64	L	0%
1-21	Fordham (240.0)	A10	H	95-51	W	100%
1-25	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	A	66-72	W	100%
1-28	Richmond (127.0)	A10	H	62-47	W	100%
2-1	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	A	86-62	L	0%
2-8	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	A	76-67	L	0%
2-11	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	H	69-48	W	100%
2-15	Temple (19.0)	A10	H	70-76	L	0%
2-18	Rhode Island (257.0)	A10	H	81-61	W	100%
2-22	Fordham (240.0)	A10	A	63-89	W	100%
2-25	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	A	56-72	W	100%
2-29	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	H	98-93	W	100%
3-3	La Salle (90.0)	A10	A	71-61	L	0%
3-9	Saint Joseph's (69.0)	A10	N	71-68	W	100%
3-10	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	N	84-80	W	100%
3-11	Xavier (41.0)	A10	N	56-67	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Bonaventure	A10	26.11	26.11	67.67	67.67	9.23	9.23
Massachusetts	A10	3.90	3.90	67.74	67.74	1.38	1.38
Rhode Island	A10	3.82	3.82	24.14	24.14	-1.97	-1.97
Xavier	A10	3.79	3.79	64.52	64.52	1.10	1.10
Saint Joseph's	A10	3.79	3.79	64.52	64.52	1.10	1.10
Fordham	A10	3.76	3.76	37.04	37.04	-0.98	-0.98
Duquesne	A10	3.76	3.76	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	2.31	2.31	64.52	64.52	0.67	0.67
St. Louis	A10	2.30	2.30	76.67	76.67	1.23	1.23
Temple	A10	2.28	2.28	76.67	76.67	1.22	1.22
La Salle	A10	2.23	2.23	62.50	62.50	0.56	0.56
Richmond	A10	2.23	2.23	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Charlotte	A10	2.22	2.22	44.83	44.83	-0.23	-0.23
George Washington	A10	2.20	2.20	33.33	33.33	-0.73	-0.73
Siena	MAAC	1.90	1.90	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Niagara	MAAC	1.88	1.88	43.75	43.75	-0.23	-0.23
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.84	1.84	77.42	77.42	1.01	1.01
Canisius	MAAC	1.82	1.82	17.24	17.24	-1.19	-1.19
Buffalo	MAC	1.75	1.75	66.67	66.67	0.58	0.58
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.69	1.69	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Illinois	B10	1.67	1.67	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	1.67	1.67	42.31	42.31	-0.26	-0.26
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.66	1.66	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Arkansas St.	SB	1.64	1.64	37.50	37.50	-0.41	-0.41
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.64	1.64	21.43	21.43	-0.94	-0.94
Manhattan	MAAC	0.29	0.29	62.50	62.50	0.07	0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.28	0.28	78.12	78.12	0.16	0.16
Fairfield	MAAC	0.26	0.26	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.25	0.25	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.23	16.13	16.13	-0.16	-0.16
Rider	MAAC	0.23	0.23	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.21	0.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.19	0.19	86.21	86.21	0.14	0.14
Bowling Green	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.13	93.94	93.94	0.11	0.11
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.11	6.45	6.45	-0.10	-0.10
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	65.38	65.38	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	3.12	3.12	-0.07	-0.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	21.88	21.88	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00