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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:128
Current SOS:128
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13121.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Dartmouth (186.0)IvyH77-57W100%0.0
11-19Siena (261.0)MAACH70-73L0%0.0
11-22Canisius (180.0)MAACH59-53W100%0.0
11-25Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH79-71W100%0.0
11-29Niagara (287.0)MAACN59-74W100%0.0
12-3Buffalo (28.0)MACH72-63W100%0.0
12-6Ohio (231.0)MACA70-80W100%0.0
12-13Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA58-54L0%0.0
12-20Binghamton (332.0)AEA51-69W100%0.0
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH80-82L0%0.0
12-30Delaware (253.0)CAAA82-77L0%0.0
1-3Massachusetts (80.0)A10A55-69W100%0.0
1-8Dayton (32.0)A10H61-78L0%0.0
1-11Richmond (56.0)A10A60-41L0%0.0
1-14George Mason (221.0)A10H75-55W100%0.0
1-18Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10H70-61W100%0.0
1-22Duquesne (222.0)A10A97-100W100%0.0
1-25Rhode Island (66.0)A10A53-48L0%0.0
1-31La Salle (101.0)A10H56-66L0%0.0
2-4Davidson (35.0)A10A61-62W100%0.0
2-7VCU (15.0)A10H73-71W100%0.0
2-11Massachusetts (80.0)A10H53-55L0%0.0
2-14Dayton (32.0)A10A75-61L0%0.0
2-18Richmond (56.0)A10H56-71L0%0.0
2-21Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A60-70W100%0.0
2-25George Washington (84.0)A10A69-46L0%0.0
2-28Duquesne (222.0)A10H92-75W100%0.0
3-4Saint Louis (272.0)A10A48-64W100%0.0
3-7Fordham (238.0)A10H66-52W100%0.0
3-12Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10N60-49W100%0.0
3-13Dayton (32.0)A10N75-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.2626.2656.9556.953.653.65
DaytonA105.465.4673.3373.332.552.55
Saint Joseph'sA105.405.4046.4346.43-0.39-0.39
DuquesneA103.933.9339.2939.29-0.84-0.84
MassachusettsA103.923.9253.3353.330.260.26
RichmondA103.813.8156.6756.670.510.51
VCUA102.462.4676.4776.471.301.30
FordhamA102.452.4531.0331.03-0.93-0.93
La SalleA102.432.4350.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA102.402.4068.9768.970.910.91
George WashingtonA102.392.3962.5062.500.600.60
Saint LouisA102.362.3633.3333.33-0.79-0.79
DavidsonA102.352.3579.3179.311.381.38
George MasonA102.282.2827.5927.59-1.02-1.02
SienaMAAC1.821.8233.3333.33-0.61-0.61
NiagaraMAAC1.821.8227.5927.59-0.82-0.82
CanisiusMAAC1.791.7955.1755.170.190.19
BuffaloMAC1.751.7574.1974.190.850.85
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
PittsburghACC1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
OhioMAC1.691.6934.4834.48-0.52-0.52
BinghamtonAE1.641.6417.2417.24-1.07-1.07
DartmouthIvy1.611.6151.8551.850.060.06
DelawareCAA1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
Jackson St.SWAC1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
ManhattanMAAC0.320.3259.3859.380.060.06
IonaMAAC0.260.2676.4776.470.140.14
VermontAE0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
MaristMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.13-0.13
PennIvy0.210.2132.1432.14-0.08-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1847.0647.06-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
DrexelCAA0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.180.1894.1294.120.160.16
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Penn St.B100.130.1352.9452.940.010.01
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1371.4371.430.060.06
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.120.1290.6290.620.100.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.110.1174.0774.070.050.05
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Notre DameACC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.070.000.00-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
AmericanPat0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00