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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:91.0
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:112
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:138
Expected OOC SOS:175



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1291.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH92-82W100%0.0
11-17Florida (10.0)SECN73-66L0%0.0
11-21Little Rock (243.0)SBN68-65L0%0.0
11-22Central Michigan (216.0)MACN102-71W100%0.0
11-23Pepperdine (245.0)WCCN63-89W100%0.0
11-30Siena (122.0)MAACH81-74W100%0.0
12-3Buffalo (146.0)MACH90-84W100%0.0
12-6Hofstra (196.0)CAAA75-81W100%0.0
12-10UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAH80-81L0%0.0
12-17Niagara (275.0)MAACN79-69W100%0.0
12-19Army (266.0)PatH92-83W100%0.0
12-22Canisius (171.0)MAACH101-106L0%0.0
12-30Massachusetts (195.0)A10A77-89W100%0.0
1-3Dayton (30.0)A10H74-90L0%0.0
1-7George Mason (103.0)A10H82-72W100%0.0
1-11Richmond (80.0)A10A78-61L0%0.0
1-14Fordham (215.0)A10N73-53W100%0.0
1-17Saint Louis (238.0)A10A52-71W100%0.0
1-24Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H67-63W100%0.0
1-28Rhode Island (31.0)A10A71-59L0%0.0
2-1Duquesne (267.0)A10A64-71W100%0.0
2-4VCU (22.0)A10H77-83L0%0.0
2-8Saint Louis (238.0)A10H70-55W100%0.0
2-11George Washington (102.0)A10A76-70L0%0.0
2-15La Salle (133.0)A10H83-65W100%0.0
2-18Dayton (30.0)A10A76-72L0%0.0
2-22Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10A77-83W100%0.0
2-25Duquesne (267.0)A10H80-77W100%0.0
2-28Davidson (93.0)A10A68-63L0%0.0
3-4Massachusetts (195.0)A10H60-56W100%0.0
3-9Massachusetts (195.0)A10N73-60W100%0.0
3-10Rhode Island (31.0)A10N74-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.1826.1860.8160.815.665.66
MassachusettsA105.305.3050.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA103.843.8470.9770.971.611.61
DuquesneA103.813.8133.3333.33-1.27-1.27
Saint Joseph'sA103.803.8037.9337.93-0.92-0.92
Saint LouisA103.793.7938.7138.71-0.86-0.86
DaytonA103.753.7575.0075.001.881.88
DavidsonA102.302.3051.6151.610.070.07
La SalleA102.292.2951.7251.720.080.08
VCUA102.272.2775.7675.761.171.17
George WashingtonA102.272.2756.2556.250.280.28
George MasonA102.262.2661.2961.290.510.51
FordhamA102.222.2240.0040.00-0.44-0.44
RichmondA102.192.1961.2961.290.500.50
CanisiusMAAC1.731.7353.1253.120.110.11
SienaMAAC1.711.7151.5251.520.050.05
NiagaraMAAC1.681.6831.2531.25-0.63-0.63
Central MichiganMAC1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
BuffaloMAC1.661.6651.7251.720.060.06
Little RockSB1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
HofstraCAA1.631.6346.6746.67-0.11-0.11
PepperdineWCC1.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
St. Francis PANEC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC1.591.5974.1974.190.770.77
ArmyPat1.561.5640.0040.00-0.31-0.31
RiderMAAC0.240.2454.5554.550.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2181.8281.820.140.14
MaristMAAC0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
DrexelCAA0.200.2025.8125.81-0.10-0.10
William & MaryCAA0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1931.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
DelawareCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
IonaMAAC0.160.1664.7164.710.050.05
ToledoMAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
BucknellPat0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
KentuckySEC0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
MississippiSEC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
HarvardIvy0.120.1261.5461.540.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.123.333.33-0.11-0.11
ProvidenceBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LafayettePat0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
WinthropBSth0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
MercerSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
UMBCAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
HoustonAmer0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
BrownIvy0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00