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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:30.0
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:81
Current Record:22-8
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-830.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Binghamton (299.0)AEH63-53W100%0.0
11-17Syracuse (72.0)ACCA79-66L0%0.0
11-21Loyola MD (255.0)PatH94-82W100%0.0
11-24Canisius (220.0)MAACA73-77W100%0.0
11-28Hofstra (54.0)CAAH83-89L0%0.0
12-2Buffalo (90.0)MACA58-60W100%0.0
12-5Ohio (81.0)MACH81-68W100%0.0
12-8Vermont (126.0)AEH80-68W100%0.0
12-19South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH64-45W100%0.0
12-22Siena (104.0)MAACA73-70L0%0.0
12-30Niagara (315.0)MAACH82-68W100%0.0
1-2Davidson (64.0)A10H97-85W100%0.0
1-6George Mason (201.0)A10A58-77W100%0.0
1-9Massachusetts (171.0)A10A77-88W100%0.0
1-13Rhode Island (119.0)A10H69-64W100%0.0
1-16Duquesne (162.0)A10A95-88L0%0.0
1-19Dayton (21.0)A10H79-85L0%0.0
1-24VCU (37.0)A10A84-76L0%0.0
1-31Richmond (121.0)A10H84-68W100%0.0
2-3Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A73-83W100%0.0
2-7Saint Louis (206.0)A10H65-62W100%0.0
2-10Fordham (176.0)A10A72-76W100%0.0
2-13George Washington (68.0)A10H64-57W100%0.0
2-17La Salle (232.0)A10A71-64L0%0.0
2-20Dayton (21.0)A10A72-79W100%0.0
2-24Duquesne (162.0)A10H80-76W100%0.0
2-27Massachusetts (171.0)A10H85-83W100%0.0
3-2Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10N98-90W100%0.0
3-5Saint Louis (206.0)A10A67-76W100%0.0
3-11Davidson (64.0)A10N86-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.1026.1074.6374.6312.8512.85
Saint Joseph'sA104.074.0784.3884.382.802.80
DuquesneA104.014.0148.2848.28-0.14-0.14
DaytonA104.014.0180.0080.002.412.41
Saint LouisA103.993.9936.6736.67-1.06-1.06
DavidsonA103.983.9862.0762.070.960.96
MassachusettsA103.963.9646.6746.67-0.26-0.26
VCUA102.502.5069.7069.700.990.99
La SalleA102.482.4824.1424.14-1.28-1.28
George WashingtonA102.422.4271.8871.881.061.06
Rhode IslandA102.402.4054.8454.840.230.23
RichmondA102.382.3851.6151.610.080.08
George MasonA102.372.3735.4835.48-0.69-0.69
FordhamA102.342.3457.1457.140.330.33
BuffaloMAC1.901.9059.3859.380.360.36
NiagaraMAAC1.871.8722.5822.58-1.02-1.02
SienaMAAC1.851.8562.5062.500.460.46
CanisiusMAAC1.851.8543.7543.75-0.23-0.23
VermontAE1.801.8062.5062.500.450.45
HofstraCAA1.741.7470.9770.970.730.73
BinghamtonAE1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
OhioMAC1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
South Carolina St.MEAC1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Loyola MDPat1.691.6931.0331.03-0.64-0.64
SyracuseACC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
ManhattanMAAC0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.230.2368.7568.750.090.09
Miami OHMAC0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.210.2139.3939.39-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2179.4179.410.120.12
UMBCAE0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
PittsburghACC0.190.1964.5264.520.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.190.1980.0080.000.110.11
HartfordAE0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1862.8662.860.050.05
ColgatePat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
MaineAE0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
AlbanyAE0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
AkronMAC0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
DrexelCAA0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
North FloridaASun0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
LafayettePat0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
AmericanPat0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
CornellIvy0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01