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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:89.0
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:72
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:183



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1589.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Dakota (255.0)SumH68-46W100%0.0
11-16Canisius (96.0)MAACH86-64W100%0.0
11-19Siena (193.0)MAACA72-70L0%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCN71-83W100%0.0
11-26Wagner (218.0)NECN70-67W100%0.0
11-27Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAN72-76L0%0.0
12-3UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH67-58W100%0.0
12-7Buffalo (106.0)MACA78-73L0%0.0
12-14Iona (59.0)MAACA89-102W100%0.0
12-17Wake Forest (113.0)ACCA77-62L0%0.0
12-21Niagara (302.0)MAACA72-74W100%0.0
12-30Delaware (65.0)CAAH80-73W100%0.0
1-4Cornell (334.0)IvyH81-57W100%0.0
1-8Richmond (75.0)A10H84-70W100%0.0
1-11Massachusetts (23.0)A10A73-68L0%0.0
1-15Saint Louis (27.0)A10A66-60L0%0.0
1-18George Washington (29.0)A10H71-79L0%0.0
1-22La Salle (98.0)A10H66-51W100%0.0
1-25Duquesne (187.0)A10A83-81L0%0.0
1-29Massachusetts (23.0)A10H78-65W100%0.0
2-5Richmond (75.0)A10A64-62L0%0.0
2-8Dayton (43.0)A10H69-72L0%0.0
2-12Fordham (226.0)A10A65-76W100%0.0
2-15George Mason (164.0)A10A73-85W100%0.0
2-19Duquesne (187.0)A10H71-67W100%0.0
2-22Rhode Island (155.0)A10H78-87L0%0.0
2-26La Salle (98.0)A10A75-67L0%0.0
3-1Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H74-83L0%0.0
3-8VCU (13.0)A10A86-67L0%0.0
3-13La Salle (98.0)A10N72-82W100%0.0
3-14Saint Louis (27.0)A10N68-71W100%0.0
3-15Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10N67-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1026.2026.2053.5753.571.871.87
La SalleA105.265.2650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA103.793.7970.9770.971.591.59
DuquesneA103.773.7740.7440.74-0.70-0.70
RichmondA103.743.7458.0658.060.600.60
Saint LouisA103.693.6982.7682.762.422.42
MassachusettsA103.693.6976.6776.671.971.97
DaytonA102.282.2868.7568.750.850.85
VCUA102.282.2875.7675.761.171.17
George MasonA102.262.2636.6736.67-0.60-0.60
Rhode IslandA102.262.2640.0040.00-0.45-0.45
George WashingtonA102.232.2374.1974.191.081.08
FordhamA102.202.2033.3333.33-0.73-0.73
SienaMAAC1.911.9145.1645.16-0.18-0.18
CanisiusMAAC1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
IonaMAAC1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
NiagaraMAAC1.741.7421.8821.88-0.98-0.98
UMass LowellAE1.641.6434.6234.62-0.51-0.51
WagnerNEC1.641.6462.0762.070.400.40
Southern IllinoisMVC1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
BuffaloMAC1.611.6162.9662.960.420.42
DelawareCAA1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Wake ForestACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy1.591.593.853.85-1.46-1.46
South DakotaSum1.591.5934.6234.62-0.49-0.49
Louisiana TechCUSA1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
ManhattanMAAC0.370.3778.1278.120.210.21
QuinnipiacMAAC0.290.2964.5264.520.090.09
MaristMAAC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.260.2628.5728.57-0.11-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
RiderMAAC0.240.2445.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.14-0.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.170.1730.3030.30-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
VermontAE0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Penn St.B100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
VillanovaBE0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
AlbanyAE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
UMBCAE0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.140.1451.8551.850.010.01
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
TempleAmer0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
NJITind0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.110.1151.8551.850.000.00
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01