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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:109
Current SOS:109
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15139.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH65-55W100%0.0
11-14Cornell (248.0)IvyA68-72W100%0.0
11-17Canisius (112.0)MAACA72-69L0%0.0
11-24Niagara (123.0)MAACN75-80W100%0.0
11-28Ohio (67.0)MACA69-64L0%0.0
12-1Buffalo (215.0)MACH82-79W100%0.0
12-4Siena (295.0)MAACH58-43W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas St. (163.0)SBA73-70L0%0.0
12-15Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH87-53W100%0.0
12-19The Citadel (330.0)SCH97-57W100%0.0
12-22North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA92-73L0%0.0
12-31Iona (98.0)MAACH74-93L0%0.0
1-5Colorado St. (18.0)MWCA85-64L0%0.0
1-9George Washington (147.0)A10A78-59L0%0.0
1-12Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)A10H65-72L0%0.0
1-16Xavier (87.0)A10H64-66L0%0.0
1-19Temple (42.0)A10A78-81W100%0.0
1-23Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10A64-73W100%0.0
1-26St. Louis (15.0)A10H57-67L0%0.0
2-2Duquesne (229.0)A10H68-60W100%0.0
2-6Butler (22.0)A10A77-58L0%0.0
2-9Rhode Island (201.0)A10A61-67W100%0.0
2-13La Salle (46.0)A10H66-69L0%0.0
2-16Richmond (92.0)A10A83-80L0%0.0
2-20Massachusetts (57.0)A10H99-94W100%0.0
2-23Duquesne (229.0)A10A71-78W100%0.0
3-2Charlotte (68.0)A10H104-83W100%0.0
3-6Dayton (114.0)A10A75-63L0%0.0
3-9Fordham (228.0)A10H72-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1025.8625.8648.1248.12-0.97-0.97
DuquesneA103.833.8328.5728.57-1.64-1.64
MassachusettsA102.332.3367.7467.740.830.83
ButlerA102.282.2875.0075.001.141.14
Virginia CommonwealthA102.252.2575.7675.761.161.16
TempleA102.252.2574.1974.191.091.09
Saint Joseph'sA102.242.2460.0060.000.450.45
La SalleA102.242.2468.9768.970.850.85
St. LouisA102.242.2481.2581.251.401.40
DaytonA102.222.2253.3353.330.150.15
XavierA102.222.2253.3353.330.150.15
CharlotteA102.222.2267.7467.740.790.79
RichmondA102.222.2254.8454.840.210.21
FordhamA102.192.1920.0020.00-1.32-1.32
George WashingtonA102.192.1941.3841.38-0.38-0.38
Rhode IslandA102.162.1628.5728.57-0.93-0.93
IonaMAAC2.002.0059.3859.380.370.37
SienaMAAC2.002.0025.8125.81-0.97-0.97
NiagaraMAAC1.971.9761.2961.290.440.44
CanisiusMAAC1.961.9656.6756.670.260.26
BuffaloMAC1.861.8638.7138.71-0.42-0.42
OhioMAC1.831.8371.8871.880.800.80
North Carolina St.ACC1.781.7869.7069.700.700.70
Arkansas St.SB1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Cleveland St.Horz1.751.7539.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Colorado St.MWC1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
CornellIvy1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
The CitadelSC1.721.7222.2222.22-0.96-0.96
ManhattanMAAC0.350.3543.7543.75-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.270.2759.3859.380.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.270.2755.8855.880.030.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
RiderMAAC0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
MaristMAAC0.240.2432.2632.26-0.09-0.09
PennsylvaniaIvy0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Florida St.ACC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Wake ForestACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.120.1278.1278.120.060.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
PittsburghBE0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
YaleIvy0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckySB0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
VermontAE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
New Orleansind0.110.1118.1818.18-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
BucknellPat0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
North TexasSB0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
StetsonASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
AmericanPat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
NC GreensboroSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
HartfordAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.WAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01