live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:102.8
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:215
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:324



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-429.60.08%
24-537.50.61%
23-647.82.18%
22-758.25.93%
21-871.212.29%
20-985.518.36%
19-10100.721.03%
18-11117.218.59%
17-12133.911.28%
16-13151.96.25%
15-14170.52.31%
14-15190.00.84%
13-16207.60.20%
12-17233.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Dartmouth (184.4)IvyH77-57W100%0.0
11-19Siena (197.4)MAACH70-73L0%0.0
11-22Canisius (126.9)MAACH59-53W100%0.0
11-25Jackson St. (284.8)SWACH79-71W100%0.0
11-29Niagara (274.7)MAACN59-74W100%0.0
12-3Buffalo (46.6)MACH72-63W100%0.0
12-6Ohio (199.6)MACA70-80W100%0.0
12-13Pittsburgh (115.7)ACCA58-54L0%0.0
12-20Binghamton (342.6)AEA0-091%15.7
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACH0-092%16.4
12-30Delaware (332.9)CAAA0-091%16.1
1-3Massachusetts (87.1)A10A0-036%-4.1
1-8Dayton (72.7)A10H0-058%2.4
1-11Richmond (87.3)A10A0-034%-5.0
1-14George Mason (222.5)A10H0-087%13.5
1-18Saint Joseph's (189.6)A10H0-085%12.3
1-22Duquesne (255.0)A10A0-068%5.5
1-25Rhode Island (65.0)A10A0-020%-10.1
1-31La Salle (124.4)A10H0-071%6.6
2-4Davidson (32.7)A10A0-015%-12.0
2-7VCU (25.9)A10H0-045%-1.4
2-11Massachusetts (87.1)A10H0-065%4.6
2-14Dayton (72.7)A10A0-029%-6.4
2-18Richmond (87.3)A10H0-063%3.8
2-21Saint Joseph's (189.6)A10A0-062%3.6
2-25George Washington (81.1)A10A0-026%-7.4
2-28Duquesne (255.0)A10H0-089%14.2
3-4Saint Louis (269.4)A10A0-077%8.8
3-7Fordham (260.3)A10H0-091%15.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1028.0026.1470.5965.7611.538.24
MassachusettsA100.744.1260.0056.070.150.50
DuquesneA100.354.1128.5731.97-0.15-1.48
DaytonA100.004.0677.7871.100.001.72
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.0655.5641.510.00-0.69
RichmondA100.004.0355.5657.450.000.60
FordhamA100.392.5028.5728.98-0.17-1.05
George WashingtonA100.002.4666.6766.090.000.79
La SalleA100.002.4550.0050.670.000.03
DavidsonA100.452.4587.5076.740.331.31
Saint LouisA100.002.4360.0034.250.00-0.76
VCUA100.002.4270.0071.980.001.07
Rhode IslandA100.002.4262.5072.920.001.11
George MasonA100.002.3925.0026.41-0.00-1.13
NiagaraMAAC6.941.9316.6731.83-4.63-0.70
SienaMAAC6.251.9328.5750.09-2.680.00
CanisiusMAAC7.091.9362.5063.581.770.52
BuffaloMAC6.601.8885.7171.504.710.81
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.8441.6745.54-0.00-0.16
PittsburghACC6.701.8262.5050.751.670.03
OhioMAC6.251.8150.0039.570.00-0.38
BinghamtonAE0.001.750.0011.97-0.00-1.33
DartmouthIvy6.251.7250.0049.290.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.001.720.007.35-0.00-1.47
Jackson St.SWAC6.251.7220.0046.11-3.75-0.13
ManhattanMAAC0.350.3522.2237.50-0.19-0.09
IonaMAAC0.000.2666.6772.340.000.12
VermontAE0.740.2444.4457.85-0.080.04
MaristMAAC0.000.2410.0018.61-0.00-0.15
UMass LowellAE0.350.2155.5654.360.040.02
CornellIvy0.350.2155.5648.240.04-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2144.4456.51-0.000.03
PennIvy0.000.2137.5033.00-0.00-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.390.2144.4449.65-0.04-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.790.2136.3647.13-0.22-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.2030.0043.91-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.2066.6742.100.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1875.0067.580.000.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.1830.0028.50-0.00-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1844.4439.74-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.390.1850.0052.800.000.01
DrexelCAA0.390.1725.0037.13-0.20-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1766.6757.860.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0082.080.000.11
Penn St.B100.000.1590.9153.850.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1571.4363.410.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0085.310.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1488.8981.310.000.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1250.0053.700.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.1260.0056.560.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1285.7170.350.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.1271.4361.370.000.03
NJITind0.000.1236.3640.98-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.390.1230.0039.44-0.16-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1250.0044.900.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.790.1250.0051.050.000.00
AlbanyAE0.390.1233.3348.89-0.13-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.1285.7172.940.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.1210.0020.91-0.00-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1240.0046.73-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.1272.7353.260.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.1277.7851.350.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.1275.0071.730.220.05
HofstraCAA0.280.1277.7878.540.160.07
James MadisonCAA0.000.1270.0060.790.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1257.1456.750.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1263.6455.600.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1190.0078.050.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.1190.9171.890.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0031.74-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1150.0037.510.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.1181.8264.110.180.03
BrownIvy0.000.0940.0033.79-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0927.2737.85-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0937.5041.20-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.350.0911.1121.08-0.27-0.05
New HampshireAE0.350.0957.1464.620.050.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0962.5054.980.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0950.0062.270.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.350.0933.3354.74-0.120.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0960.0059.420.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.450.090.0028.26-0.45-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.450.0920.0038.24-0.27-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6751.430.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3342.19-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0928.5741.17-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.390.0933.3327.70-0.13-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0920.0029.81-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.008.88-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0055.810.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0038.000.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.350.0620.0026.57-0.21-0.03
St. John'sBE0.450.0687.5065.040.330.02
BelmontOVC0.450.0660.0062.970.090.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.87-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5747.24-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.280.0642.8627.08-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.29-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0043.08-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1453.130.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0620.0021.58-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.960.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.30-0.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.390.0662.5054.970.100.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.500.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.410.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.33-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.01-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0618.1835.99-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.08-0.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.130.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.450.0337.5034.19-0.11-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.450.0377.7871.110.250.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.350.0357.1456.900.050.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.350.0355.5638.600.04-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MercerSC0.350.0337.5042.45-0.09-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0040.880.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5634.940.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.110.00-0.01
LehighPat0.350.0337.5047.71-0.09-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0390.0067.260.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0322.2241.92-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.22-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.600.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.09-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.390.0336.3644.53-0.11-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.390.03100.0094.790.390.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0023.71-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0360.0049.500.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.390.0355.5654.950.040.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0387.5085.320.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.670.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.280.0320.0019.99-0.17-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.890.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0012.36-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HawaiiBW0.350.0366.6754.830.120.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.310.000.01
IndianaB100.350.0380.0057.630.210.00
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0310.0018.58-0.23-0.02
Kansas St.B120.350.0360.0037.220.07-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.280.0342.8652.71-0.040.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.0372.7367.750.130.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.0371.4359.920.120.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.340.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
SamfordSC0.350.0333.3331.58-0.12-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.350.0370.0072.830.140.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.280.0344.4444.78-0.03-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.44-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.700.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.790.000.00
UABCUSA0.280.0330.0037.28-0.11-0.01