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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:90.6
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:329
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:99
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-516.30.03%
22-619.70.16%
21-726.30.64%
20-831.41.95%
19-941.05.17%
18-1050.08.80%
17-1161.513.73%
16-1274.715.45%
15-1390.517.02%
14-14107.514.26%
13-15125.611.14%
12-16145.36.51%
11-17165.53.17%
10-18186.71.26%
9-19203.90.49%
8-20228.60.17%
7-21235.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Niagara (180.5)MAACH75-77L0%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH72-58W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (25.7)B10N0-023%-8.8
11-29Siena (227.7)MAACA0-073%7.3
12-2Buffalo (79.2)MACA0-046%-1.3
12-6Canisius (227.2)MAACA0-070%6.2
12-9Yale (127.9)IvyH0-069%5.9
12-16Vermont (75.8)AEN0-048%-0.7
12-20Northeastern (149.4)CAAH0-076%8.4
12-22Syracuse (45.7)ACCA0-022%-9.3
12-30Massachusetts (194.1)A10H0-077%9.0
1-3Dayton (77.6)A10A0-037%-4.0
1-6Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10A0-039%-3.3
1-10Fordham (245.6)A10H0-084%12.1
1-13Rhode Island (26.4)A10A0-020%-9.9
1-19Davidson (46.9)A10A0-027%-7.5
1-24Saint Joseph's (94.6)A10H0-059%2.7
1-28George Washington (163.9)A10H0-075%7.9
1-31George Mason (191.3)A10A0-060%2.9
2-3Duquesne (253.1)A10A0-070%6.2
2-7Saint Louis (146.5)A10H0-071%6.5
2-10Richmond (219.9)A10H0-082%10.8
2-13La Salle (107.5)A10A0-048%-0.7
2-16Rhode Island (26.4)A10H0-037%-3.9
2-21Duquesne (253.1)A10H0-084%12.2
2-24VCU (92.7)A10A0-033%-5.3
2-27Davidson (46.9)A10H0-045%-1.5
3-3Saint Louis (146.5)A10A0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1037.5026.1730.0054.81-15.002.52
Rhode IslandA100.004.2250.0073.390.001.97
DuquesneA100.004.22100.0049.380.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.004.2266.6754.420.000.37
DavidsonA100.004.21100.0070.550.001.73
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.1866.6760.210.000.85
MassachusettsA100.002.5650.0042.800.00-0.37
FordhamA100.002.5633.3336.870.00-0.67
RichmondA100.002.550.0030.720.00-0.98
La SalleA100.002.5575.0051.170.000.06
DaytonA100.002.5566.6762.120.000.62
George WashingtonA100.002.5366.6746.590.00-0.17
George MasonA100.002.4975.0049.220.00-0.04
VCUA100.002.4666.6766.560.000.81
CanisiusMAAC0.001.9333.3346.860.00-0.12
NiagaraMAAC25.001.930.0050.18-25.000.01
VermontAE0.001.9166.6774.910.000.95
SienaMAAC0.001.900.0037.400.00-0.48
BuffaloMAC0.001.87100.0061.260.000.42
SyracuseACC0.001.85100.0061.710.000.43
MarylandB100.001.85100.0071.550.000.80
Jackson St.SWAC25.001.820.0046.14-25.00-0.14
NortheasternCAA0.001.8250.0050.380.000.01
YaleIvy0.001.8225.0055.790.000.21
IonaMAAC0.000.3025.0059.770.000.06
BucknellPat0.000.280.0061.460.000.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2325.0032.490.00-0.08
HarvardIvy0.000.2133.3354.200.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.2133.3334.680.00-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2166.6759.740.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2133.3348.640.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.1933.3349.350.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.180.0013.450.00-0.13
ManhattanMAAC0.000.18100.0055.280.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.170.0023.830.00-0.09
ToledoMAC0.000.16100.0064.120.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.1650.0048.680.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.160.0051.010.000.00
VMISC0.000.1533.3327.450.00-0.07
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0074.140.000.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1566.6768.790.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.1575.0064.570.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.15100.0072.510.000.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.15100.0059.250.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.150.0036.070.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1566.6754.900.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1566.6755.210.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.13100.0078.910.000.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1350.0050.360.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.13100.0039.270.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.1333.3348.480.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0056.600.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1233.3353.190.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.120.0031.810.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.12100.0048.790.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0018.970.00-0.08
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0033.700.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1275.0056.120.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.120.0048.110.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.12100.0060.400.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0028.770.00-0.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1233.3334.560.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.100.0028.720.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0037.120.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3345.540.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.09100.0066.010.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0067.950.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0082.960.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0022.610.00-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.09100.0039.920.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.910.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0966.6773.200.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0933.3339.360.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0055.040.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.090.0047.400.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0066.710.000.03
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0925.0038.080.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0933.3335.210.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3350.840.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0950.0042.730.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0975.0052.360.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0975.0045.290.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0925.0035.000.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0074.500.000.04
MinnesotaB106.250.09100.0071.706.250.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.09100.0068.200.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0975.0061.940.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0066.990.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0030.910.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.070.0045.640.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0069.320.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0054.590.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.060.0064.600.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
MercerSC6.250.0675.0076.253.120.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0633.3326.430.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0050.870.000.00
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0059.870.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0085.360.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0666.6766.970.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.060.0030.230.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0065.140.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0051.410.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.03100.0078.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.030.0047.690.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0375.0048.770.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.030.0040.830.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0333.3357.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.030.0021.970.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0049.250.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.03100.0044.740.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0050.310.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01