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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


St. Bonaventure

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:143.4
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:263
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-629.00.04%
22-746.80.15%
21-850.00.56%
20-962.71.48%
19-1077.54.75%
18-1192.87.93%
17-12110.113.25%
16-13127.517.02%
15-14145.818.24%
14-15166.015.29%
13-16185.210.44%
12-17204.96.29%
11-18223.73.01%
10-19246.11.15%
9-20259.10.31%
8-21275.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Dartmouth (291.9)IvyH77-57W100%0.0
11-19Siena (145.2)MAACH70-73L0%0.0
11-22Canisius (141.3)MAACH59-53W100%0.0
11-25Jackson St. (312.2)SWACH0-092%17.1
11-29Niagara (307.0)MAACN0-087%13.5
12-3Buffalo (78.0)MACH0-061%3.3
12-6Ohio (113.5)MACA0-040%-3.0
12-13Pittsburgh (105.0)ACCA0-027%-7.4
12-20Binghamton (276.6)AEA0-073%7.3
12-22Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACH0-095%19.6
12-30Delaware (278.2)CAAA0-069%6.0
1-3Massachusetts (50.9)A10A0-025%-8.2
1-8Dayton (42.8)A10H0-038%-3.7
1-11Richmond (51.7)A10A0-020%-10.2
1-14George Mason (227.3)A10H0-084%11.7
1-18Saint Joseph's (207.8)A10H0-077%8.9
1-22Duquesne (158.3)A10A0-041%-2.8
1-25Rhode Island (105.2)A10A0-033%-5.4
1-31La Salle (114.1)A10H0-061%3.2
2-4Davidson (105.2)A10A0-031%-5.8
2-7VCU (21.9)A10H0-031%-6.0
2-11Massachusetts (50.9)A10H0-047%-1.1
2-14Dayton (42.8)A10A0-018%-10.9
2-18Richmond (51.7)A10H0-040%-3.0
2-21Saint Joseph's (207.8)A10A0-056%1.8
2-25George Washington (34.3)A10A0-012%-14.1
2-28Duquesne (158.3)A10H0-064%4.4
3-4Saint Louis (78.6)A10A0-027%-7.4
3-7Fordham (224.6)A10H0-077%8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. BonaventureA1034.7226.1546.1551.31-2.670.68
MassachusettsA102.784.1375.0060.131.390.84
DuquesneA100.004.13100.0053.010.000.25
DaytonA100.004.0766.6769.470.001.59
Saint Joseph'sA100.004.0750.0037.370.00-1.03
RichmondA100.004.0466.6767.270.001.40
FordhamA100.002.520.0035.56-0.00-0.73
George WashingtonA100.002.4766.6776.100.001.29
La SalleA100.002.46100.0054.340.000.21
DavidsonA100.002.4650.0052.460.000.12
Saint LouisA100.002.44100.0064.860.000.73
VCUA100.002.43100.0073.720.001.15
Rhode IslandA100.002.43100.0055.790.000.28
George MasonA100.002.4025.0020.07-0.00-1.44
NiagaraMAAC0.001.9333.3324.47-0.00-0.99
SienaMAAC16.671.930.0058.20-16.670.32
CanisiusMAAC16.671.93100.0058.6716.670.33
BuffaloMAC0.001.8866.6761.350.000.43
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.001.8520.0028.58-0.00-0.79
PittsburghACC0.001.8266.6749.990.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.001.8150.0056.130.000.22
BinghamtonAE0.001.750.0034.98-0.00-0.53
DartmouthIvy16.671.720.0036.96-16.67-0.45
DelawareCAA0.001.720.0029.50-0.00-0.71
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.7233.3337.96-0.00-0.42
ManhattanMAAC0.000.3633.3357.45-0.000.05
IonaMAAC0.000.2666.6766.670.000.09
VermontAE5.560.2433.3358.93-1.850.04
MaristMAAC0.000.240.0034.55-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.2250.0034.510.00-0.07
CornellIvy0.000.2140.0040.58-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2166.6758.230.000.03
PennIvy0.000.210.0025.60-0.00-0.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2166.6763.960.000.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.210.0028.32-0.00-0.09
HowardMEAC0.000.210.0035.51-0.00-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.18100.0061.500.000.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1866.6734.100.00-0.06
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1825.0031.12-0.00-0.07
RiderMAAC0.000.1866.6751.290.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.170.0032.23-0.00-0.06
VillanovaBE0.000.17100.0065.270.000.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.17100.0071.440.000.07
Penn St.B100.000.1575.0047.170.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.15100.0049.250.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0075.720.000.08
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1550.0041.480.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.14100.0080.090.000.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6748.790.00-0.00
HartfordAE4.170.1275.0042.502.08-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1266.6763.730.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0046.020.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0070.980.000.05
NJITind0.000.1225.0025.21-0.00-0.06
AlbanyAE0.000.1233.3362.56-0.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1233.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1225.0041.91-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.120.0036.19-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0069.670.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.12100.0072.860.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.1250.0067.960.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0074.620.000.06
HofstraCAA0.000.1266.6762.810.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.100.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0072.420.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0041.59-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1233.3346.79-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6746.540.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1266.6744.970.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0059.190.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0925.0037.31-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.090.0018.23-0.00-0.06
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0041.97-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0040.91-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0045.990.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0933.3364.76-0.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0030.790.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3343.68-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0933.3359.57-0.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0925.0056.39-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3364.19-0.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0054.710.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0053.080.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0032.69-0.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0975.0053.860.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0031.92-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0925.0033.97-0.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0950.0038.370.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0950.0031.980.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.50-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0950.0041.630.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0650.0062.620.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0666.6773.760.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0066.100.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0633.3322.74-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0073.290.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.16-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3336.55-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.360.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0078.630.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6755.980.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0675.0068.160.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.17-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.33-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0666.6733.180.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.190.000.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.84-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.44-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0675.0060.550.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.15-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.72-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.74-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0048.00-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.07-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0325.0035.71-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0086.130.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
LehighPat2.780.030.0036.87-2.78-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.530.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0032.48-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0071.090.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0333.3355.40-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0085.100.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.890.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0025.08-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.03-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00