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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:67.0
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:84
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:58
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1167.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH109-68W100%0.0
11-20Dayton (32.0)A10N55-53L0%0.0
11-21College of Charleston (298.0)CAAN50-59W100%0.0
11-23New Mexico (172.0)MWCN51-64W100%0.0
11-28New Orleans (326.0)SlndH87-65W100%0.0
12-3Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH66-63W100%0.0
12-6Arizona St. (102.0)P12H72-71W100%0.0
12-9Baylor (10.0)B12A77-63L0%0.0
12-13Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH81-63W100%0.0
12-20Kansas St. (100.0)B12A71-64L0%0.0
12-30Mercer (212.0)SCH65-50W100%0.0
1-3Hartford (244.0)AEH58-49W100%0.0
1-6Alabama (85.0)SECA65-44L0%0.0
1-10Kentucky (1.0)SECH64-70L0%0.0
1-13Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH74-70W100%0.0
1-17LSU (57.0)SECA64-67W100%0.0
1-21Missouri (218.0)SECH62-50W100%0.0
1-24Tennessee (96.0)SECA61-67W100%0.0
1-27Auburn (129.0)SECA61-71W100%0.0
1-31Vanderbilt (104.0)SECH69-58W100%0.0
2-4Mississippi (60.0)SECA69-59L0%0.0
2-7Missouri (218.0)SECA61-83W100%0.0
2-11Georgia (38.0)SECH53-62L0%0.0
2-14Florida (72.0)SECH63-62W100%0.0
2-17LSU (57.0)SECH68-62W100%0.0
2-21South Carolina (91.0)SECA52-62W100%0.0
2-24Arkansas (19.0)SECA81-75L0%0.0
2-28Auburn (129.0)SECH80-55W100%0.0
3-3Florida (72.0)SECA66-62L0%0.0
3-7Alabama (85.0)SECH60-61L0%0.0
3-12Auburn (129.0)SECN59-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.1426.1463.1663.166.886.88
AuburnSEC5.525.5241.9441.94-0.89-0.89
LSUSEC3.943.9473.3373.331.841.84
AlabamaSEC3.873.8751.7251.720.130.13
FloridaSEC3.853.8548.3948.39-0.12-0.12
MissouriSEC3.823.8227.5927.59-1.71-1.71
KentuckySEC2.412.41100.00100.002.412.41
ArkansasSEC2.352.3575.7675.761.211.21
South CarolinaSEC2.342.3451.6151.610.080.08
GeorgiaSEC2.332.3364.5264.520.680.68
TennesseeSEC2.312.3151.6151.610.070.07
VanderbiltSEC2.292.2960.0060.000.460.46
MississippiSEC2.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
Mississippi St.SEC2.282.2840.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Northwestern St.Slnd1.731.7357.6957.690.270.27
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
BaylorB121.711.7170.9770.970.720.72
Kansas St.B121.711.7145.1645.16-0.17-0.17
New OrleansSlnd1.701.7032.0032.00-0.61-0.61
Arizona St.P121.661.6654.8454.840.160.16
College of CharlestonCAA1.661.6628.1228.12-0.73-0.73
MercerSC1.661.6653.3353.330.110.11
DaytonA101.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
HartfordAE1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
New MexicoMWC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.2840.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Texas TechB120.250.2540.6240.62-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.230.2386.6786.670.170.17
KansasB120.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
TCUB120.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.206.906.90-0.18-0.18
Iowa St.B120.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
West VirginiaB120.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.200.2064.7164.710.060.06
OklahomaB120.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1826.9226.92-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
XavierBE0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
ClemsonACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.090.09
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1242.3142.31-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
FurmanSC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0262.9662.960.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01