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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:42.8
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:49
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:57
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-48.30.10%
25-511.50.47%
24-614.82.22%
23-719.25.77%
22-824.411.28%
21-930.517.45%
20-1038.220.41%
19-1147.517.92%
18-1258.712.58%
17-1371.36.86%
16-1485.93.42%
15-15103.21.11%
14-16119.00.33%
13-17133.80.06%
12-18162.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH72-44W100%0.0
11-14American (290.4)PatH76-53W100%0.0
11-18USC (37.0)P12H63-65L0%0.0
11-24Cal St. Northridge (259.5)BWN73-95W100%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (66.6)ACCN65-68W100%0.0
11-27UCLA (15.7)P12N74-67L0%0.0
12-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndH0-094%18.2
12-7Denver (246.0)SumH0-096%20.7
12-10South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACH0-0100%32.0
12-17Arizona (35.7)P12N0-053%0.9
12-21St. Francis PA (277.5)NECH0-098%25.2
12-29Tennessee (130.0)SECH0-084%11.7
1-3Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-017%-11.5
1-7South Carolina (19.4)SECA0-034%-4.8
1-11LSU (93.4)SECH0-083%11.3
1-14Mississippi St. (152.0)SECA0-075%8.0
1-17Arkansas (43.1)SECH0-067%5.2
1-21Georgia (71.7)SECH0-075%8.0
1-25Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-071%6.7
1-28West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-013%-13.7
1-31Vanderbilt (79.2)SECH0-076%8.6
2-4LSU (93.4)SECA0-066%5.0
2-8Missouri (183.4)SECH0-088%13.9
2-11Florida (9.5)SECA0-028%-7.1
2-16Vanderbilt (79.2)SECA0-058%2.4
2-18Auburn (88.3)SECH0-080%10.0
2-22Arkansas (43.1)SECA0-046%-1.1
2-25Alabama (122.0)SECH0-079%9.8
2-28Missouri (183.4)SECA0-074%7.6
3-4Kentucky (9.3)SECH0-033%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC28.6026.1157.1463.934.097.27
MissouriSEC0.833.9757.1444.190.12-0.46
ArkansasSEC0.003.9685.7167.760.001.41
KentuckySEC0.463.9387.5083.330.352.62
VanderbiltSEC0.003.9350.0047.160.00-0.22
LSUSEC0.003.9171.4350.860.000.07
FloridaSEC0.002.3587.5075.340.001.19
Mississippi St.SEC0.832.3375.0048.810.42-0.06
AuburnSEC0.002.3385.7158.690.000.40
MississippiSEC0.002.3375.0049.160.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.002.3257.1452.860.000.13
TennesseeSEC0.002.3240.0041.97-0.00-0.37
South CarolinaSEC0.002.30100.0079.310.001.35
GeorgiaSEC0.002.2957.1452.960.000.14
UCLAP128.931.86100.0086.248.931.35
ArizonaP120.001.8375.0069.080.000.70
Northwestern St.Slnd8.331.7825.0043.66-4.17-0.23
USCP128.331.77100.0075.888.330.92
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.001.7075.0063.690.000.47
AmericanPat8.331.7016.6732.47-5.56-0.59
St. Francis PANEC0.601.7033.3341.35-0.20-0.29
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.690.0028.15-0.00-0.74
Cal St. NorthridgeBW8.801.6933.3344.55-2.93-0.18
Virginia TechACC8.331.69100.0065.168.330.51
DenverSum0.001.6742.8646.46-0.00-0.12
West VirginiaB120.001.6785.7183.530.001.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.2425.0055.33-0.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.2262.5040.460.00-0.04
OregonP120.000.1975.0072.250.000.09
ClemsonACC0.000.1771.4354.860.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1625.0022.93-0.00-0.09
North FloridaASun0.000.1612.5034.79-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1657.1438.680.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.1657.1452.370.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.1642.8628.98-0.00-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0035.95-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1457.1471.520.000.06
OklahomaB120.830.1471.4348.350.36-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1411.1148.19-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1471.4354.310.000.01
StanfordP120.600.1466.6758.060.200.02
Texas TechB120.000.1487.5062.040.000.03
KansasB120.000.1487.5075.860.000.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0017.61-0.00-0.08
LamarSlnd0.000.1350.0041.540.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0058.040.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.460.120.0032.52-0.46-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.520.120.0033.85-0.52-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.1237.5047.37-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.1242.8666.67-0.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1175.0066.100.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1175.0066.410.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.1166.6766.340.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.1171.4370.210.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1157.1458.940.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1185.7178.280.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.960.000.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1185.7162.220.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.070.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1187.5068.020.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.39-0.00-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1042.8637.34-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.12-0.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1040.0054.54-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1025.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8641.51-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.520.0940.0041.93-0.10-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.460.090.0038.27-0.46-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.070.000.01
WagnerNEC0.600.0933.3354.47-0.200.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.47-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0971.4366.700.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0975.0086.710.000.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0937.5033.74-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.600.090.0016.68-0.60-0.06
New MexicoMWC1.190.0962.5058.450.300.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.520.0942.8655.09-0.070.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0022.31-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.010.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0812.5033.04-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0825.0020.78-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0875.0054.490.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0857.1429.790.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0862.5050.710.000.00
MichiganB100.600.0875.0066.460.300.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.300.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0887.5078.510.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0871.4373.040.000.04
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.920.000.07
High PointBSth0.600.0842.8646.48-0.09-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5059.310.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.590.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0885.7174.990.000.04
ColoradoP120.000.0875.0062.620.000.02
UtahP120.000.0875.0059.790.000.02
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.590.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0850.0064.350.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.440.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0887.5076.230.000.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0833.3332.35-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.08100.0061.680.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.670.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.330.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.450.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.970.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.830.0620.0035.47-0.50-0.02
HowardMEAC0.600.0616.6744.34-0.40-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.92-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0616.6739.78-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0614.2926.74-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
PortlandWCC1.060.0650.0054.070.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8654.90-0.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5029.71-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0637.5051.64-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3333.36-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.94-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0625.0037.38-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1458.840.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6739.20-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0671.4368.050.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0525.0038.83-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0588.8978.400.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0587.5065.250.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0060.620.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0055.500.000.01
MontanaBSky0.520.0525.0048.10-0.26-0.00
NebraskaB101.060.0557.1444.890.15-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.980.0537.5031.23-0.25-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0562.5052.330.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0544.4441.30-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.600.050.0016.78-0.60-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0533.3336.74-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0528.5731.44-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0562.5043.220.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0542.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0585.7170.060.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.390.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.600.0312.5029.15-0.45-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.600.0342.8645.56-0.09-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.600.0371.4368.980.260.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
MarylandB100.600.0387.5059.330.450.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6757.300.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.840.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.65-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.520.0362.5066.900.130.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
MaineAE0.600.0314.2924.15-0.43-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.590.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.150.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.06-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.520.0366.6766.860.170.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0350.0030.350.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.540.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.260.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.320.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0342.8660.54-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.23-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
PacificWCC0.460.0342.8646.14-0.07-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0350.0059.920.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01