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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:44



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1592.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH72-44W100%0.0
11-14American (310.0)PatH76-53W100%0.0
11-18USC (40.0)P12H63-65L0%0.0
11-24Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWN73-95W100%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCN65-68W100%0.0
11-27UCLA (16.0)P12N74-67L0%0.0
12-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH86-69W100%0.0
12-7Denver (207.0)SumH80-58W100%0.0
12-10South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH83-76W100%0.0
12-17Arizona (2.0)P12N63-67L0%0.0
12-21St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH81-58W100%0.0
12-29Tennessee (82.0)SECH63-73L0%0.0
1-3Kentucky (3.0)SECA100-58L0%0.0
1-7South Carolina (42.0)SECA79-68L0%0.0
1-11LSU (193.0)SECH92-62W100%0.0
1-14Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA67-59L0%0.0
1-17Arkansas (28.0)SECH60-62L0%0.0
1-21Georgia (52.0)SECH63-62W100%0.0
1-25Mississippi (77.0)SECA76-80W100%0.0
1-28West Virginia (24.0)B12A81-77L0%0.0
1-31Vanderbilt (44.0)SECH54-68L0%0.0
2-4LSU (193.0)SECA73-85W100%0.0
2-8Missouri (257.0)SECH76-73W100%0.0
2-11Florida (10.0)SECA71-62L0%0.0
2-16Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA72-67L0%0.0
2-18Auburn (113.0)SECH81-62W100%0.0
2-22Arkansas (28.0)SECA86-77L0%0.0
2-25Alabama (78.0)SECH56-53W100%0.0
2-28Missouri (257.0)SECA43-60W100%0.0
3-4Kentucky (3.0)SECH63-71L0%0.0
3-9Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA66-41L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.1326.1348.1248.12-0.98-0.98
VanderbiltSEC5.465.4651.6151.610.180.18
ArkansasSEC3.993.9971.8871.881.751.75
KentuckySEC3.923.9284.3884.382.692.69
MissouriSEC3.873.8726.6726.67-1.81-1.81
LSUSEC3.793.7934.4834.48-1.18-1.18
FloridaSEC2.352.3574.1974.191.141.14
AlabamaSEC2.342.3459.3859.380.440.44
MississippiSEC2.332.3362.5062.500.580.58
Mississippi St.SEC2.322.3248.3948.39-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
GeorgiaSEC2.282.2858.0658.060.370.37
TennesseeSEC2.282.2846.6746.67-0.15-0.15
South CarolinaSEC2.242.2466.6766.670.750.75
UCLAP121.831.8387.5087.501.381.38
ArizonaP121.791.7987.8887.881.351.35
USCP121.731.7371.8871.880.760.76
Northwestern St.Slnd1.721.7237.5037.50-0.43-0.43
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.651.6562.9662.960.430.43
St. Francis PANEC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat1.641.6427.5927.59-0.73-0.73
South Carolina St.MEAC1.641.6432.1432.14-0.59-0.59
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.641.6437.0437.04-0.42-0.42
Virginia TechACC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
DenverSum1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
West VirginiaB121.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.2551.7251.720.010.01
OregonP120.200.2084.8584.850.140.14
Arizona St.P120.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
Washington St.P120.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
OklahomaB120.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
MarquetteBE0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1219.2319.23-0.08-0.08
KansasB120.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
BelmontOVC0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
High PointBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ColoradoP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
ButlerBE0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0932.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UtahP120.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01