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Through games of Nov 23, 2014.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:39.5
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:54
Current SOS:186
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-23.20.04%
27-34.30.13%
26-47.00.79%
25-510.32.62%
24-614.36.47%
23-718.811.13%
22-825.715.81%
21-933.718.31%
20-1043.317.46%
19-1154.513.38%
18-1268.47.30%
17-1383.23.98%
16-1498.21.70%
15-15117.40.55%
14-16134.30.28%
13-17149.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern St. (181.5)SlndH109-68W100%0.0
11-20Dayton (41.0)A10N55-53L0%0.0
11-21College of Charleston (142.0)CAAN50-59W100%0.0
11-23New Mexico (121.2)MWCN51-64W100%0.0
11-28New Orleans (288.7)SlndH0-098%24.8
12-3Sam Houston St. (160.8)SlndH0-090%15.1
12-6Arizona St. (90.0)P12H0-076%8.3
12-9Baylor (33.0)B12A0-039%-3.4
12-13Youngstown St. (259.1)HorzH0-095%20.0
12-20Kansas St. (111.4)B12N0-068%5.5
12-30Mercer (210.4)SCH0-094%18.6
1-3Hartford (271.5)AEH0-098%24.6
1-6Alabama (64.7)SECA0-050%-0.1
1-10Kentucky (2.6)SECH0-029%-6.7
1-13Mississippi St. (172.6)SECH0-088%14.2
1-17LSU (72.8)SECA0-053%1.0
1-21Missouri (114.1)SECH0-080%10.1
1-24Tennessee (163.9)SECA0-069%5.9
1-27Auburn (155.3)SECA0-070%6.4
1-31Vanderbilt (131.2)SECH0-082%11.1
2-4Mississippi (84.9)SECA0-054%1.4
2-7Missouri (114.1)SECA0-060%2.9
2-11Georgia (74.7)SECH0-074%7.6
2-14Florida (27.3)SECH0-055%1.5
2-17LSU (72.8)SECH0-075%8.1
2-21South Carolina (105.2)SECA0-054%1.1
2-24Arkansas (32.7)SECA0-035%-4.5
2-28Auburn (155.3)SECH0-087%13.6
3-3Florida (27.3)SECA0-032%-5.6
3-7Alabama (64.7)SECH0-072%7.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC32.1926.1572.2267.4414.319.12
LSUSEC0.004.0275.0059.790.000.79
AuburnSEC0.003.9966.6742.440.00-0.60
AlabamaSEC0.003.93100.0060.500.000.83
MissouriSEC0.003.9366.6747.820.00-0.17
FloridaSEC0.003.9366.6769.320.001.52
ArkansasSEC0.002.39100.0074.010.001.15
KentuckySEC0.002.38100.0088.650.001.84
VanderbiltSEC0.002.38100.0051.540.000.07
GeorgiaSEC0.002.3875.0057.370.000.35
TennesseeSEC0.002.3850.0043.190.00-0.32
MississippiSEC0.002.3875.0055.270.000.25
South CarolinaSEC0.002.3540.0049.30-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.32100.0048.210.00-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd12.501.790.0055.86-12.500.21
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.7950.0066.090.000.58
Kansas St.B120.001.7866.6750.750.000.03
BaylorB120.001.78100.0067.720.000.63
New OrleansSlnd0.001.760.0033.86-0.00-0.57
MercerSC0.001.7333.3355.49-0.000.19
College of CharlestonCAA12.501.7250.0056.150.000.21
DaytonA1012.501.7266.6771.934.170.75
Arizona St.P120.001.67100.0057.880.000.26
HartfordAE0.001.6775.0042.150.00-0.26
New MexicoMWC12.501.6775.0058.346.250.28
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.6740.0039.37-0.00-0.35
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.280.0043.51-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.2666.6746.580.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.23100.0062.120.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.230.0021.40-0.00-0.13
OklahomaB123.120.2166.6762.381.040.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.200.0037.29-0.00-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.20100.0053.290.000.01
KansasB120.000.2050.0062.480.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.20100.0071.890.000.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.190.0066.50-0.000.06
TCUB120.000.18100.0054.380.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.180.0049.00-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.17100.0075.510.000.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.170.0033.26-0.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.170.0035.17-0.00-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1650.0063.270.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1475.0054.620.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.140.0033.50-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.14100.0081.510.000.09
ColoradoP120.000.1466.6760.880.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0028.04-0.00-0.06
LamarSlnd0.000.130.0033.64-0.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.130.0024.68-0.00-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1250.0063.440.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1225.0044.56-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.1275.0069.430.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1175.0051.200.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1150.0050.440.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.11100.0070.780.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1166.6757.190.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1150.0054.200.000.01
UCLAP120.000.11100.0065.190.000.03
ConnecticutAmer2.810.1175.0070.771.410.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1133.3342.08-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1133.3341.23-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1180.0059.220.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1166.6746.700.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0051.850.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0077.570.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0950.0051.920.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0029.00-0.00-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.090.0048.44-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.090.0046.47-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC1.250.0933.3324.24-0.42-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.090.0027.66-0.00-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.000.0933.3365.28-0.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0933.3353.24-0.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0920.0034.58-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0039.080.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0062.980.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0925.0043.02-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0026.20-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.090.0043.50-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3346.72-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0052.480.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0065.55-0.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0079.170.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.0850.0042.650.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0825.0066.60-0.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.08100.0048.750.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0850.0042.910.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0875.0061.320.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0880.0061.870.000.02
OregonP120.000.08100.0069.430.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth1.250.0850.0063.170.000.02
George MasonA102.500.0820.0021.84-1.50-0.05
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0039.12-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.04-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0034.75-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.97-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.690.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3363.61-0.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0028.81-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3348.37-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.33-0.000.02
MaineAE0.000.060.0017.44-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0041.80-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0660.0041.500.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0038.34-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.75-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6758.100.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0625.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0026.81-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0052.940.000.00
VCUA100.000.06100.0074.410.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.72-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.770.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.770.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3348.17-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6752.020.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.310.000.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0046.140.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.480.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.81-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0675.0065.560.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.380.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.000.000.01
Boston CollegeACC2.810.0640.0038.78-0.56-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.780.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0053.680.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0023.10-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.88-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0054.720.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0070.900.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0081.220.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6753.120.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0070.150.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3343.07-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0640.0028.63-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.560.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0051.68-0.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0070.560.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0533.3361.17-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0550.0053.570.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0550.0050.460.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.050.0020.55-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.50-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0575.0067.090.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6746.160.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.05100.0075.190.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0566.6746.380.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0366.6763.860.000.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.410.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.260.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0050.84-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0071.590.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6767.580.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.83-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3328.24-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0031.430.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0060.160.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.28-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.990.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.590.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6766.540.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0067.590.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.19-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3323.98-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.860.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.10-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0073.060.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6765.840.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.350.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.58-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3331.17-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0028.09-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0375.0070.240.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0043.24-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3323.14-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3337.81-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.81-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.980.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0050.35-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6752.830.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.86-0.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0019.05-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6747.490.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0021.84-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.85-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0366.6737.040.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0017.97-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.380.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3347.36-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.080.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC1.560.030.0041.94-1.56-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0060.050.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW1.250.0333.3335.65-0.42-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0055.730.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0028.27-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.47-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0063.150.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6776.480.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.640.000.01
Idaho St.BSky1.250.030.0028.67-1.25-0.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0032.42-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3326.52-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3341.27-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0060.180.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6732.670.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3347.23-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0056.01-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.740.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0058.810.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0366.6765.070.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0038.210.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.40-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.730.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.62-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.32-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.27-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.490.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.49-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0366.6764.690.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.23-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.240.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.99-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0071.350.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.840.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0069.230.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.67-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0056.830.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6748.230.00-0.00