Texas A&M

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	154.9
Current RPI:	145
Expected SOS:	74
Current SOS:	91
Current Record:	11-10
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	211
Expected OOC SOS:	324

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-11	84.4	0.08%
17-12	98.4	0.75%
16-13	112.7	3.83%
15-14	127.4	13.14%
14-15	143.1	26.23%
13-16	160.9	32.00%
12-17	179.9	19.24%
11-18	199.5	4.72%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-9	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	H	81-59	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	83-58	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Mississippi St. (41.7)	SEC	N	69-60	L	0%	0.0
11-18	St. John's (151.1)	BE	A	57-58	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	56-43	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	56-44	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	H	55-42	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	64-37	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	67-54	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Florida (14.9)	SEC	N	84-64	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	58-65	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	61-52	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	H	50-74	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	61-51	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	H	67-54	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Missouri (11.7)	B12	A	70-51	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	H	81-75	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Kansas (8.8)	B12	A	64-54	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	H	76-61	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Baylor (6.8)	B12	H	60-63	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	A	64-53	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Texas (58.4)	B12	H	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-11	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	0-0		18%	-9.9
2-14	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	A	0-0		68%	5.0
2-18	Missouri (11.7)	B12	H	0-0		18%	-10.1
2-22	Kansas (8.8)	B12	H	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-25	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	A	0-0		33%	-4.7
2-28	Kansas St. (45.9)	B12	H	0-0		31%	-5.6
3-3	Oklahoma (89.8)	B12	A	0-0		28%	-6.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas A&M	B12	26.27	26.35	44.58	39.95	-2.85	-5.30
Texas	B12	3.03	4.42	59.09	59.73	0.55	0.86
Texas Tech	B12	3.04	4.41	33.33	26.69	-1.01	-2.06
Iowa St.	B12	2.91	4.39	72.73	66.88	1.32	1.48
Oklahoma St.	B12	3.02	4.38	47.62	41.23	-0.14	-0.77
Baylor	B12	5.24	4.38	90.00	82.69	4.19	2.86
Kansas	B12	2.91	4.36	77.27	77.35	1.59	2.38
Missouri	B12	2.91	4.36	90.91	86.91	2.38	3.22
Kansas St.	B12	2.91	4.35	71.43	67.10	1.25	1.49
Oklahoma	B12	2.91	4.35	61.90	56.03	0.69	0.53
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.68	2.00	19.05	21.86	-1.66	-1.13
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.56	1.90	27.78	30.93	-1.14	-0.73
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.55	1.90	50.00	52.78	0.00	0.11
Rice	CUSA	2.60	1.89	45.00	44.48	-0.26	-0.21
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.59	1.84	77.27	71.41	1.41	0.79
Southern	SWAC	2.50	1.82	47.37	47.84	-0.13	-0.08
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.44	1.79	17.65	23.95	-1.58	-0.93
Florida	SEC	2.43	1.75	81.82	76.89	1.55	0.94
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.43	1.75	9.09	9.32	-1.99	-1.43
Liberty	BSth	2.38	1.72	28.57	28.21	-1.02	-0.75
St. John's	BE	2.38	1.72	45.45	41.62	-0.22	-0.29
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.35	0.30	76.19	75.94	0.18	0.16
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.36	0.27	35.00	40.78	-0.11	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.26	0.27	55.00	54.48	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.30	0.25	57.14	60.75	0.04	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.31	0.24	22.22	27.62	-0.17	-0.11
North Texas	SB	0.27	0.23	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.39	0.23	65.22	65.17	0.12	0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.35	0.21	19.05	25.52	-0.22	-0.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.35	0.21	27.78	29.58	-0.16	-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.23	0.21	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.27	0.21	25.00	23.75	-0.14	-0.11
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.20	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.08
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.18	0.19	17.39	24.41	-0.12	-0.09
Grambling	SWAC	0.24	0.19	15.00	15.73	-0.17	-0.13
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.23	0.19	31.82	42.13	-0.09	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.24	0.18	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.17	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.17	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.14
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.16	30.00	37.30	-0.08	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.15	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.21	0.15	12.50	13.44	-0.16	-0.11
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.14	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.14	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	17.65	27.10	-0.08	-0.06
Tulane	CUSA	0.24	0.13	61.90	58.59	0.06	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.12	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.17	0.12	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.12	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.12	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.12	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.16	0.12	28.57	30.17	-0.07	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.07
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.11	10.00	14.93	-0.13	-0.08
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.16	0.11	36.36	39.72	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.16	0.11	73.91	74.91	0.08	0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.11	63.64	56.71	0.04	0.02
Providence	BE	0.16	0.11	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.11	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	69.57	65.47	0.04	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	71.43	73.35	0.05	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.11	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.09	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.11	0.09	70.83	72.23	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.09	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.09	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.09	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.11	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.09	38.10	42.78	-0.04	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.08	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.06
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.08	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.08	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.08	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.08	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.04	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.05	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.04	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.06	85.71	82.18	0.05	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.07	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.09	-0.05
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.06	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.09	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.11	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.06	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.03	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.05	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.00	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.00	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.03	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.03	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.04	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01