live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:69.6
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:49
Current SOS:209
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:68
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-34.00.01%
24-44.00.01%
23-59.00.26%
22-613.20.95%
21-718.92.58%
20-826.26.36%
19-935.210.49%
18-1046.915.87%
17-1160.818.14%
16-1276.416.26%
15-1394.213.24%
14-14113.18.31%
13-15134.04.67%
12-16154.91.92%
11-17172.80.71%
10-18196.00.14%
9-19200.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northwestern St. (199.8)SlndH109-68W100%0.0
11-20Dayton (37.7)A10N55-53L0%0.0
11-28New Orleans (289.5)SlndH0-097%21.9
12-3Sam Houston St. (190.3)SlndH0-088%14.0
12-6Arizona St. (63.5)P12H0-062%3.8
12-9Baylor (25.2)B12A0-027%-7.4
12-13Youngstown St. (279.9)HorzH0-093%17.4
12-20Kansas St. (67.8)B12N0-049%-0.3
12-30Mercer (212.5)SCH0-091%16.0
1-3Hartford (288.9)AEH0-096%21.4
1-6Alabama (85.3)SECA0-045%-1.6
1-10Kentucky (4.1)SECH0-027%-7.4
1-13Mississippi St. (220.3)SECH0-089%14.5
1-17LSU (56.4)SECA0-039%-3.3
1-21Missouri (88.2)SECH0-067%5.1
1-24Tennessee (156.2)SECA0-059%2.8
1-27Auburn (176.7)SECA0-065%4.8
1-31Vanderbilt (149.8)SECH0-078%9.1
2-4Mississippi (62.8)SECA0-039%-3.5
2-7Missouri (88.2)SECA0-043%-2.0
2-11Georgia (77.0)SECH0-067%5.1
2-14Florida (29.0)SECH0-045%-1.4
2-17LSU (56.4)SECH0-063%3.9
2-21South Carolina (75.7)SECA0-039%-3.2
2-24Arkansas (29.0)SECA0-026%-7.6
2-28Auburn (176.7)SECH0-084%12.0
3-3Florida (29.0)SECA0-024%-8.5
3-7Alabama (85.3)SECH0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC43.7526.1937.5056.24-10.943.27
LSUSEC0.004.28100.0064.510.001.24
AuburnSEC0.004.2850.0038.080.00-1.02
AlabamaSEC0.004.22100.0057.840.000.66
FloridaSEC0.004.2150.0068.870.001.59
MissouriSEC0.004.2166.6754.350.000.37
ArkansasSEC0.002.56100.0074.640.001.26
KentuckySEC0.002.56100.0085.680.001.83
GeorgiaSEC0.002.5650.0055.280.000.27
TennesseeSEC0.002.5650.0043.970.00-0.31
VanderbiltSEC0.002.55100.0049.590.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.002.5566.6760.270.000.52
South CarolinaSEC0.002.5266.6757.850.000.40
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.49100.0037.700.00-0.61
Northwestern St.Slnd25.001.920.0054.35-25.000.17
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.920.0062.82-0.000.49
BaylorB120.001.91100.0070.240.000.77
Kansas St.B120.001.91100.0060.330.000.39
New OrleansSlnd0.001.890.0035.53-0.00-0.55
MercerSC0.001.8550.0055.720.000.21
DaytonA1025.001.84100.0071.3725.000.79
Arizona St.P120.001.79100.0062.400.000.44
HartfordAE0.001.7966.6739.380.00-0.38
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.790.0037.69-0.00-0.44
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.300.0045.95-0.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.2850.0045.040.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.25100.0061.300.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.2250.0058.400.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.22100.0049.980.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.220.0038.86-0.00-0.05
KansasB120.000.2150.0060.040.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.210.0021.38-0.00-0.12
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.210.0066.74-0.000.07
TCUB120.000.19100.0054.380.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.190.0045.35-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.18100.0067.060.000.06
XavierBE0.000.18100.0070.050.000.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.180.0035.44-0.00-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.180.0039.93-0.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.180.0053.19-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.150.0031.43-0.00-0.06
TexasB120.000.15100.0084.350.000.10
ColoradoP120.000.15100.0068.310.000.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.140.0031.05-0.00-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.140.0025.74-0.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.000.140.0033.91-0.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.13100.0068.930.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1350.0052.080.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.120.0054.91-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1250.0059.510.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.1250.0046.570.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0053.410.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0070.580.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.120.0041.47-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.12100.0064.410.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.110.0041.07-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.1050.0065.490.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.100.0048.48-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0036.86-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.100.0058.87-0.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.10100.0051.730.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0055.69-0.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1050.0040.830.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0048.49-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0950.0063.340.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0053.31-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.09100.0050.010.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.09100.0063.480.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.090.0037.06-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0056.950.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0023.67-0.00-0.05
LipscombASun0.000.090.0040.22-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0044.49-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0933.3334.10-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0063.86-0.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0966.6747.950.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0044.490.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0024.870.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3333.83-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0027.81-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0750.0044.060.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.29-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.38-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.750.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0064.020.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0038.23-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0051.650.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.69-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.480.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0036.83-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0066.43-0.000.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.340.000.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0022.72-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0039.66-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3331.05-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.57-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0076.230.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0650.0066.190.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0057.080.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.48-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0070.520.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0038.380.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0650.0061.050.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0060.930.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0070.930.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0061.020.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0045.250.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6757.250.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.060.0041.28-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.320.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0046.350.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0055.200.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.87-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.060.0044.62-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.06100.0078.150.000.03
StanfordP120.000.06100.0059.450.000.01
UtahP120.000.0650.0063.450.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0450.0062.850.000.01
IndianaB100.000.04100.0064.540.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0466.6749.560.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0450.0060.330.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0450.0067.190.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.270.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0028.940.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0052.100.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC6.250.030.0038.55-6.25-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.880.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0057.160.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0040.980.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0044.790.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3324.67-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.03100.0071.490.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0061.790.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.030.0051.35-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0058.910.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.64-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0034.320.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0029.100.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0070.180.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0055.360.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.320.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3337.88-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.86-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.72-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.360.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0045.27-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.25-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0035.31-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0087.640.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0046.51-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0065.41-0.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0016.22-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.720.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3364.95-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.99-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.150.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.28-0.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.370.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0050.460.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0063.690.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0033.98-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0026.57-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.970.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.810.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0039.97-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.73-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0333.3351.93-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.890.000.00
USCP120.000.0333.3326.65-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.080.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.030.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0046.460.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.68-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6762.170.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0350.0061.730.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.510.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0333.3350.61-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0077.610.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.81-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0067.660.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.990.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3369.45-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6755.190.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0043.010.00-0.00