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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:18.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:51
Current SOS:51
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:16
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-818.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH104-64W100%0.0
11-16Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH100-58W100%0.0
11-19Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndH95-70W100%0.0
11-21UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH75-47W100%0.0
11-25Texas (27.0)B12N73-84W100%0.0
11-26Gonzaga (46.0)WCCN61-62W100%0.0
11-27Syracuse (72.0)ACCN67-74L0%0.0
12-2Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH75-65W100%0.0
12-5Arizona St. (99.0)P12A67-54L0%0.0
12-12Kansas St. (92.0)B12H78-68W100%0.0
12-19Baylor (25.0)B12H80-61W100%0.0
12-29Cal Poly (236.0)BWH82-63W100%0.0
1-2Arkansas (133.0)SECH92-69W100%0.0
1-6Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA60-61W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee (143.0)SECA88-92W100%0.0
1-12Florida (55.0)SECH71-68W100%0.0
1-16Georgia (62.0)SECA45-79W100%0.0
1-19LSU (94.0)SECH71-57W100%0.0
1-23Missouri (222.0)SECH66-53W100%0.0
1-27Arkansas (133.0)SECA74-71L0%0.0
1-30Iowa St. (23.0)B12H72-62W100%0.0
2-4Vanderbilt (63.0)SECA77-60L0%0.0
2-6South Carolina (65.0)SECH78-81L0%0.0
2-10Alabama (73.0)SECA63-62L0%0.0
2-13LSU (94.0)SECA76-71L0%0.0
2-16Mississippi (96.0)SECH71-56W100%0.0
2-20Kentucky (11.0)SECH79-77W100%0.0
2-24Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH68-66W100%0.0
2-27Missouri (222.0)SECA69-84W100%0.0
3-1Auburn (175.0)SECA63-81W100%0.0
3-5Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH76-67W100%0.0
3-11Florida (55.0)SECN72-66W100%0.0
3-12LSU (94.0)SECN71-38W100%0.0
3-13Kentucky (11.0)SECN77-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.2026.2076.8176.8114.0514.05
LSUSEC5.005.0060.0060.001.001.00
FloridaSEC3.653.6561.2961.290.820.82
KentuckySEC3.653.6578.1278.122.052.05
ArkansasSEC3.603.6050.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC3.583.5860.0060.000.720.72
Mississippi St.SEC3.513.5148.2848.28-0.12-0.12
MissouriSEC3.513.5134.4834.48-1.09-1.09
TennesseeSEC2.292.2945.4545.45-0.21-0.21
GeorgiaSEC2.252.2561.2961.290.510.51
AlabamaSEC2.202.2054.8454.840.210.21
MississippiSEC2.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
South CarolinaSEC2.112.1173.3373.330.990.99
AuburnSEC2.082.0836.6736.67-0.56-0.56
Kansas St.B121.701.7053.1253.120.110.11
TexasB121.701.7064.5264.520.490.49
BaylorB121.701.7067.7467.740.600.60
Iowa St.B121.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.571.5757.1457.140.220.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.541.5479.3179.310.900.90
USC UpstateASun1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
Arizona St.P121.511.5145.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Cal PolyBW1.501.5029.6329.63-0.61-0.61
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.501.5033.3333.33-0.50-0.50
GonzagaWCC1.491.4980.6580.650.910.91
UNC AshevilleBSth1.491.4966.6766.670.500.50
SyracuseACC1.471.4758.0658.060.240.24
KansasB120.320.3287.8887.880.240.24
Texas TechB120.280.2861.2961.290.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.270.2737.5037.50-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.270.2778.1278.120.150.15
North FloridaASun0.270.2763.3363.330.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.240.2431.0331.03-0.09-0.09
TCUB120.230.2336.3636.36-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.230.2376.4776.470.120.12
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1920.8320.83-0.11-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1482.1482.140.090.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1426.9226.92-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
StanfordP120.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
WashingtonP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
NavyPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1083.8783.870.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0922.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
USCP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0757.6957.690.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
OregonP120.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0724.2424.24-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
RichmondA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0479.4179.410.030.03
VermontAE0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0474.1974.190.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01