Kennesaw St.

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	341.0
Current RPI:	341
Expected SOS:	280
Current SOS:	280
Current Record:	3-27
Expected Record:	3-27
Current Conf Record:	2-16
Expected Conf Record:	2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-18
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	319
Expected OOC SOS:	218

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-27	341.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Tennessee (59.0)	SEC	A	76-67	L	0%
11-12	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	65-67	W	100%
11-16	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	85-71	L	0%
11-17	Radford (316.0)	BSth	N	58-67	L	0%
11-18	Towson (157.0)	CAA	N	69-63	L	0%
11-21	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	46-62	L	0%
11-24	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	51-65	L	0%
12-1	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	65-63	L	0%
12-16	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	H	52-66	L	0%
12-19	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	85-57	L	0%
12-21	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	70-47	L	0%
12-23	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	59-43	L	0%
12-31	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	59-68	L	0%
1-2	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	60-70	L	0%
1-5	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	83-75	W	100%
1-10	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	99-92	L	0%
1-12	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	81-72	L	0%
1-17	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	54-66	L	0%
1-19	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	60-70	L	0%
1-24	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	79-72	L	0%
1-26	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	64-53	L	0%
2-1	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	66-42	L	0%
2-7	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	52-60	L	0%
2-9	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	75-68	W	100%
2-14	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	79-70	L	0%
2-16	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	79-67	L	0%
2-21	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	54-64	L	0%
2-23	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	55-70	L	0%
2-28	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	91-77	L	0%
3-2	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	67-49	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Kennesaw St.	ASun	26.32	26.32	9.42	9.42	-21.36	-21.36
Mercer	ASun	4.41	4.41	66.67	66.67	1.47	1.47
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.38	4.38	66.67	66.67	1.46	1.46
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.32	4.32	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
North Florida	ASun	4.32	4.32	34.48	34.48	-1.34	-1.34
Stetson	ASun	4.32	4.32	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Jacksonville	ASun	4.30	4.30	39.29	39.29	-0.92	-0.92
Lipscomb	ASun	4.29	4.29	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.27	4.27	24.14	24.14	-2.21	-2.21
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.20	4.20	36.00	36.00	-1.18	-1.18
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.78	1.78	70.00	70.00	0.71	0.71
Georgia Southern	SC	1.77	1.77	36.67	36.67	-0.47	-0.47
Chattanooga	SC	1.77	1.77	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.75	1.75	22.22	22.22	-0.97	-0.97
Radford	BSth	1.75	1.75	32.14	32.14	-0.62	-0.62
Pittsburgh	BE	1.74	1.74	74.19	74.19	0.84	0.84
Charlotte	A10	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Towson	CAA	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	14.81	14.81	-1.21	-1.21
Notre Dame	BE	1.72	1.72	72.73	72.73	0.78	0.78
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Tennessee	SEC	1.67	1.67	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Georgia	SEC	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.20	0.20	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.19	0.19	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.19	0.19	81.82	81.82	0.12	0.12
Furman	SC	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.17	0.17	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Samford	SC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.14	0.14	21.43	21.43	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02