Kennesaw St.

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	331.0
Current RPI:	331
Expected SOS:	224
Current SOS:	224
Current Record:	2-28
Expected Record:	2-28
Current Conf Record:	0-18
Expected Conf Record:	0-18
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-10
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	287
Expected OOC SOS:	211

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
2-28	331.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	85-31	L	0%
11-14	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	A	68-55	L	0%
11-18	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	A	59-65	W	100%
11-26	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	98-104	L	0%
12-1	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	98-52	L	0%
12-3	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	A	75-52	L	0%
12-15	Missouri (10.0)	B12	A	104-67	L	0%
12-17	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	78-55	L	0%
12-19	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	74-51	L	0%
12-22	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	N	68-81	L	0%
12-23	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	N	65-69	W	100%
12-30	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	A	71-63	L	0%
1-2	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	H	62-66	L	0%
1-4	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	H	55-62	L	0%
1-7	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	A	68-53	L	0%
1-9	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	A	73-69	L	0%
1-13	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	A	81-51	L	0%
1-18	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	A	74-63	L	0%
1-21	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	H	50-66	L	0%
1-23	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	H	68-76	L	0%
1-28	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	A	92-74	L	0%
1-30	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	A	75-59	L	0%
2-4	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	59-64	L	0%
2-6	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	H	58-70	L	0%
2-10	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	H	57-61	L	0%
2-14	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	H	75-76	L	0%
2-18	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	A	81-77	L	0%
2-20	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	A	73-71	L	0%
2-23	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	50-90	L	0%
2-25	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	H	71-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Kennesaw St.	ASun	26.31	26.31	8.45	8.45	-21.86	-21.86
Belmont	ASun	4.38	4.38	77.42	77.42	2.40	2.40
Mercer	ASun	4.38	4.38	63.33	63.33	1.17	1.17
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.37	4.37	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.37	4.37	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	4.31	4.31	35.71	35.71	-1.23	-1.23
North Florida	ASun	4.29	4.29	44.83	44.83	-0.44	-0.44
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.26	4.26	57.14	57.14	0.61	0.61
Jacksonville	ASun	4.26	4.26	21.43	21.43	-2.43	-2.43
Stetson	ASun	4.20	4.20	23.08	23.08	-2.26	-2.26
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.81	1.81	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.78	1.78	3.57	3.57	-1.65	-1.65
Charlotte	A10	1.72	1.72	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Missouri St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Auburn	SEC	1.72	1.72	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Chattanooga	SC	1.72	1.72	28.57	28.57	-0.74	-0.74
Missouri	B12	1.72	1.72	87.88	87.88	1.30	1.30
Ohio	MAC	1.70	1.70	78.12	78.12	0.95	0.95
St. Mary's	WCC	1.69	1.69	82.76	82.76	1.11	1.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.69	1.69	20.69	20.69	-0.99	-0.99
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.67	1.67	7.14	7.14	-1.43	-1.43
Wisconsin	B10	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.37	0.37	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.31	0.31	63.33	63.33	0.08	0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.24	0.24	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	96.43	96.43	0.21	0.21
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.20	0.20	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Appalachian St.	SC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
Samford	SC	0.17	0.17	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.14	0.14	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02