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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:293.5
Current RPI:198
Expected SOS:278
Current SOS:176
Current Record:4-7
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:5-10
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12163.00.02%
16-13177.30.07%
15-14193.30.35%
14-15219.61.35%
13-16240.64.63%
12-17260.810.75%
11-18278.916.69%
10-19295.522.05%
9-20307.521.08%
8-21317.413.75%
7-22325.36.61%
6-23332.02.17%
5-24337.40.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Syracuse (72.7)ACCA89-42L0%0.0
11-16California (57.4)P12A93-59L0%0.0
11-19Mercer (249.1)SCA74-66L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota St. (163.6)SumA68-55L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (331.1)SWACN83-80W100%0.0
11-26Samford (323.6)SCH84-71W100%0.0
11-29Chattanooga (207.2)SCH77-69W100%0.0
12-2FIU (136.9)CUSAA59-38L0%0.0
12-6Kent St. (117.7)MACH46-58L0%0.0
12-8Butler (25.7)BEA93-51L0%0.0
12-17Youngstown St. (213.1)HorzA84-90W100%0.0
12-20UMBC (335.5)AEH0-070%6.1
12-22Elon (190.1)CAAH0-030%-6.1
12-27Illinois (48.3)B10A0-01%-27.5
12-31Tennessee St. (326.9)OVCA0-037%-3.8
1-10USC Upstate (178.4)ASunA0-08%-16.3
1-14Northern Kentucky (268.9)ASunA0-026%-7.6
1-17Lipscomb (240.6)ASunH0-042%-2.5
1-22Stetson (310.0)ASunH0-059%2.8
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (91.3)ASunH0-015%-12.0
1-29North Florida (157.2)ASunA0-08%-16.4
1-31Jacksonville (337.4)ASunA0-048%-0.5
2-7USC Upstate (178.4)ASunH0-026%-7.5
2-12Jacksonville (337.4)ASunH0-076%8.3
2-14North Florida (157.2)ASunH0-026%-7.7
2-19Florida Gulf Coast (91.3)ASunA0-04%-20.8
2-21Stetson (310.0)ASunA0-031%-6.0
2-25Northern Kentucky (268.9)ASunH0-054%1.2
2-28Lipscomb (240.6)ASunA0-017%-11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun27.7926.3341.8634.27-4.52-8.29
Northern KentuckyASun0.254.2725.0030.98-0.13-1.62
LipscombASun0.004.2625.0040.14-0.00-0.84
North FloridaASun0.004.2444.4454.91-0.000.42
JacksonvilleASun0.194.2410.0016.86-0.15-2.81
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.284.2475.0069.950.141.69
StetsonASun0.284.2411.1126.85-0.22-1.96
USC UpstateASun0.284.2460.0063.130.061.11
ChattanoogaSC4.772.0050.0053.010.000.12
FIUCUSA4.551.9242.8653.04-0.650.12
SamfordSC4.551.9036.3632.45-1.24-0.67
MercerSC4.551.8428.5739.77-1.95-0.38
Youngstown St.Horz4.871.8250.0046.120.00-0.14
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.790.0015.30-0.00-1.24
Kent St.MAC4.751.7966.6760.021.580.36
ElonCAA0.001.7937.5047.37-0.00-0.09
CaliforniaP125.081.7888.8965.353.950.55
ButlerBE4.801.7577.7871.552.670.76
North Dakota St.Sum4.551.7550.0054.740.000.17
Alcorn St.SWAC4.771.750.0029.75-4.77-0.71
SyracuseACC4.771.7562.5056.191.190.22
IllinoisB100.001.7272.7364.850.000.51
UMBCAE0.001.7210.0020.72-0.00-1.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.340.0012.28-0.00-0.26
Austin PeayOVC0.190.2822.2230.96-0.11-0.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2850.0049.770.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.790.2440.0050.16-0.160.00
FurmanSC0.190.2425.0029.26-0.09-0.10
NorthwesternB100.230.2460.0040.460.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.2422.2237.53-0.11-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.220.0023.23-0.00-0.12
BelmontOVC0.000.2260.0062.430.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2220.0034.02-0.00-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.2150.0052.290.000.01
IowaB100.790.2172.7362.590.360.05
IPFWSum0.000.1957.1456.730.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1871.4364.070.000.05
The CitadelSC0.250.1816.6730.49-0.17-0.07
VMISC0.470.1833.3338.88-0.16-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1822.2245.85-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1877.7876.160.000.09
TexasB120.760.1690.0081.760.610.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.1637.5064.54-0.070.05
OhioMAC0.280.1650.0037.520.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.280.1655.5653.800.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1550.0037.400.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.250.1590.9188.430.210.11
PittsburghACC0.190.1566.6752.270.060.01
PurdueB100.190.1572.7363.690.090.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1357.1454.700.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.1355.5635.040.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1375.0078.710.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1310.0041.11-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1350.0039.320.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1244.4431.65-0.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.400.1222.2242.15-0.22-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1218.1846.19-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1260.0059.520.000.02
AkronMAC0.250.1260.0056.780.050.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.280.1260.0061.810.060.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1262.5066.710.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1277.7878.200.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1255.5638.460.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.1266.6743.830.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.1280.0071.020.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1244.4444.99-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0082.310.000.07
South DakotaSum0.210.1020.0039.57-0.12-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1075.0060.600.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6757.580.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.230.0927.2737.77-0.10-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0936.3638.88-0.08-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0910.0018.78-0.00-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6776.500.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0977.7851.090.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0990.9167.700.000.03
WyomingMWC0.230.0977.7873.090.130.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.320.0918.1821.69-0.21-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.060.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0950.0050.820.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.35-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.320.0960.0049.650.06-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6751.310.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3338.24-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.230.0911.1121.17-0.18-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.230.0950.0046.160.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.440.0970.0066.610.180.03
Loyola MDPat0.480.0933.3327.49-0.16-0.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0087.440.000.06
Seton HallBE0.280.0988.8963.530.220.02
GeorgetownBE0.230.0866.6759.320.080.02
MichiganB100.250.0855.5642.690.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.250.0887.5064.520.190.02
DenverSum0.000.0750.0053.980.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.18-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.33-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0744.4444.76-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.79-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.36-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.33-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.040.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.81-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.380.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.530.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0610.0018.04-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5756.75-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.62-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.01-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.38-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.96-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.760.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.250.0650.0032.540.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.280.0655.5661.640.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6772.280.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6755.660.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0642.8632.44-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.870.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.07-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.05-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.56-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.120.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0032.16-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0650.0048.630.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.840.000.02
MontanaBSky0.480.0625.0051.40-0.240.00
Central MichiganMAC0.210.0685.7170.330.150.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.0671.4363.540.090.02
LongwoodBSth0.210.0620.0026.68-0.12-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.460.0630.0039.75-0.18-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.210.0677.7865.350.110.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.85-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0628.5736.94-0.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0012.01-0.00-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.080.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.340.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.660.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.74-0.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.61-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.67-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.250.0662.5059.460.060.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.810.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.24-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.510.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.570.000.01
RiceCUSA0.280.0616.6725.04-0.19-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0637.5055.05-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0655.5654.600.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0650.0053.700.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0650.0059.880.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5648.830.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.280.06100.0085.210.280.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.890.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.770.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.190.0650.0038.030.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.830.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.270.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6738.970.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.470.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.230.0633.3332.85-0.08-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.640.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.760.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.120.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.230.0670.0071.470.090.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6759.200.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7352.880.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.410.000.01
USCP120.000.0660.0037.230.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.100.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0072.030.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0029.07-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.250.0325.0027.83-0.13-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.250.0325.0032.64-0.13-0.01
TroySB0.280.0333.3340.58-0.09-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.210.0366.6764.900.070.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.320.0342.8638.50-0.05-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2231.12-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.250.0366.6770.610.080.01
Colorado St.MWC0.280.03100.0077.970.280.02
DartmouthIvy0.280.0344.4447.44-0.03-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.12-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0044.01-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.540.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0342.8652.31-0.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0040.49-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.320.0371.4359.600.140.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.37-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.19-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.81-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0033.280.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
PacificWCC0.280.0342.8638.32-0.04-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.27-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0024.33-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0344.4447.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0322.2240.77-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.280.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.33-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.04-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5055.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.320.0370.0064.820.130.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.0320.0028.69-0.11-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.80-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3345.26-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.190.030.008.71-0.19-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.060.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.960.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.85-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.230.0342.8638.02-0.03-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0311.1129.64-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.80-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.70-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.590.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0330.0029.48-0.09-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.250.0357.1452.640.040.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0049.99-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.230.0312.5024.75-0.17-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.750.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
OklahomaB120.230.0377.7867.330.130.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0049.720.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.930.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0377.7879.670.000.02