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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:308.6
Current RPI:325
Expected SOS:305
Current SOS:338
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-9
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13188.90.08%
14-14216.90.39%
13-15236.21.43%
12-16257.14.14%
11-17274.68.25%
10-18291.914.71%
9-19306.219.90%
8-20318.520.39%
7-21327.915.76%
6-22334.99.70%
5-23340.23.86%
4-24343.81.17%
3-25346.50.19%
2-26349.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Iowa (164.3)B10A91-74L0%0.0
11-16Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACA75-72L0%0.0
11-19UMBC (212.5)AEA93-85L0%0.0
11-22Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH79-72W100%0.0
11-26Chattanooga (104.3)SCH71-88L0%0.0
11-28South Florida (269.8)AmerA71-69L0%0.0
11-30Florida A&M (346.2)MEACA74-76W100%0.0
12-3Michigan (45.6)B10A0-01%-27.8
12-14Rider (212.4)MAACA0-019%-10.4
12-17Massachusetts (108.4)A10A0-07%-17.3
12-20Pacific (155.8)WCCA0-012%-14.0
12-22North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACH0-074%7.7
12-28Mercer (163.6)SCH0-028%-7.0
1-2Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCA0-08%-16.9
1-7Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA0-031%-6.0
1-12Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunH0-015%-12.3
1-14Stetson (322.2)ASunH0-065%4.5
1-19North Florida (270.2)ASunA0-032%-5.6
1-21Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-019%-10.4
1-25NJIT (192.6)ASunH0-035%-4.5
1-28USC Upstate (277.8)ASunA0-036%-4.2
1-30NJIT (192.6)ASunA0-019%-10.7
2-4USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH0-057%2.0
2-9Stetson (322.2)ASunA0-044%-1.7
2-11Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA0-06%-18.5
2-16Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH0-036%-4.2
2-18North Florida (270.2)ASunH0-052%0.5
2-23Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun29.1226.3434.4832.14-9.04-9.41
StetsonASun0.604.4528.5726.94-0.26-2.05
JacksonvilleASun0.004.4557.1458.470.000.75
LipscombASun0.004.3914.2931.05-0.00-1.66
NJITASun0.004.3642.8648.56-0.00-0.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.3550.0069.900.001.73
North FloridaASun0.004.3514.2929.59-0.00-1.78
USC UpstateASun0.004.3533.3336.96-0.00-1.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC7.142.040.0029.39-7.14-0.84
Florida A&MMEAC7.742.040.0024.36-7.74-1.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.000.0024.26-0.00-1.03
RiderMAAC0.601.9150.0046.900.00-0.12
Tennessee St.OVC0.001.8883.3369.520.000.73
South FloridaAmer7.741.8860.0029.821.55-0.76
IowaB107.141.8833.3342.48-2.38-0.28
MassachusettsA100.001.8883.3356.930.000.26
PacificWCC0.001.8750.0047.680.00-0.09
MercerSC0.001.8550.0052.370.000.09
ChattanoogaSC7.141.8560.0068.701.430.69
Alabama St.SWAC7.141.8216.6735.79-4.76-0.52
MichiganB100.001.8171.4365.440.000.56
UMBCAE7.141.7975.0053.623.570.13
The CitadelSC0.000.2940.0027.05-0.00-0.13
FIUCUSA0.000.2616.6733.69-0.00-0.09
Delaware St.MEAC0.710.2216.6736.35-0.48-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.710.220.0034.23-0.71-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.600.2275.0047.510.30-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.600.2050.0045.410.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.510.1957.1447.320.07-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1940.0061.37-0.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1920.0041.93-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1914.2928.66-0.00-0.08
SamfordSC0.600.1957.1455.810.090.02
HowardMEAC0.000.190.0038.26-0.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.000.1983.3374.620.000.09
AuburnSEC0.000.1683.3355.200.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.1687.5075.320.000.08
Air ForceMWC0.600.1650.0042.710.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.160.0027.77-0.00-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.000.1625.0040.81-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1666.6758.420.000.03
La SalleA100.000.1560.0051.780.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1520.0049.38-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.1571.4363.570.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1550.0061.590.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1571.4374.450.000.07
BinghamtonAE0.000.1342.8640.94-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1342.8646.78-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6756.020.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0033.54-0.00-0.04
ColgatePat0.000.1320.0041.31-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.1383.3361.150.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.1316.6733.82-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6737.09-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1333.3338.76-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0018.22-0.00-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.130.0038.35-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1366.6775.370.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.1383.3368.880.000.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1385.7180.960.000.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1383.3380.700.000.08
VMISC0.000.130.0021.15-0.00-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1316.6718.96-0.00-0.08
WoffordSC0.000.130.0033.58-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.120.0034.18-0.00-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.120.0024.19-0.51-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.1242.8635.68-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1228.5750.51-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.1257.1443.680.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0070.140.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1285.7165.670.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1260.0052.760.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.1275.0073.840.000.06
IllinoisB100.000.1257.1442.660.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1250.0043.610.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1050.0052.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.600.1020.0034.39-0.36-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.510.1040.0067.95-0.100.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1040.0041.65-0.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1057.1440.590.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.600.1025.0034.47-0.30-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0912.5022.55-0.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.510.0925.0024.28-0.26-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0937.5036.24-0.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0960.0067.410.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0928.5734.18-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.600.0928.5727.50-0.26-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.510.0985.7159.740.360.02
George MasonA100.000.0957.1442.940.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0983.3375.060.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0983.3344.770.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0750.0060.380.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0783.3362.840.000.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0074.460.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0766.6751.090.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0750.0047.560.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0771.4349.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0716.6725.61-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.0771.4365.740.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0750.0057.480.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0757.1464.940.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0762.5071.630.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0742.8637.60-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.510.0614.2928.15-0.36-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0633.3331.87-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
DuquesneA100.710.0637.5034.65-0.18-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
TroySB0.600.0633.3332.23-0.20-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.510.0642.8634.17-0.07-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.600.0614.2929.15-0.43-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.510.0616.6730.02-0.34-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.510.06100.0075.010.510.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0660.0057.170.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0633.3353.85-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
NavyPat0.710.0328.5743.62-0.31-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0054.490.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0357.1448.410.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.600.0385.7168.390.430.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.600.0328.5739.44-0.26-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.600.0371.4368.100.260.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.600.0342.8637.25-0.09-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.600.0385.7180.010.430.02
St. John'sBE0.600.0328.5733.92-0.26-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.600.0383.3358.030.400.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
TCUB120.510.03100.0059.480.510.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
Seton HallBE0.510.0371.4354.520.220.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
VirginiaACC0.510.03100.0082.550.510.02