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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:324.0
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:223
Current Record:4-25
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:3-15
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-13
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:305
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
4-25324.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH57-73L0%0.0
11-9Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH60-68L0%0.0
11-10FIU (202.0)CUSAH58-66L0%0.0
11-14Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA78-55L0%0.0
11-19Chattanooga (243.0)SCA69-73W100%0.0
11-24IPFW (115.0)SumH66-76L0%0.0
11-29Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA95-67L0%0.0
12-1Kent St. (213.0)MACA68-51L0%0.0
12-16Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA74-57L0%0.0
12-18Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA73-55L0%0.0
12-22Indiana (102.0)B10A90-66L0%0.0
12-30North Florida (189.0)ASunA85-60L0%0.0
1-1Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA86-66L0%0.0
1-4East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH55-71L0%0.0
1-6USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH68-58W100%0.0
1-10Mercer (81.0)ASunA83-46L0%0.0
1-16Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA88-83L0%0.0
1-18Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA82-69L0%0.0
1-23Stetson (333.0)ASunH65-68L0%0.0
1-25Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH62-83L0%0.0
1-31USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA65-48L0%0.0
2-2East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA86-73L0%0.0
2-7Mercer (81.0)ASunH68-75L0%0.0
2-14Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH69-67W100%0.0
2-16Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH73-76L0%0.0
2-21Stetson (333.0)ASunA63-67W100%0.0
2-23Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA78-68L0%0.0
2-27Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH69-71L0%0.0
3-1North Florida (189.0)ASunH77-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun26.3326.3314.3914.39-18.75-18.75
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.584.5860.0060.000.920.92
MercerASun4.534.5372.4172.412.032.03
USC UpstateASun4.534.5355.1755.170.470.47
East Tennessee St.ASun4.504.5050.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun4.444.4420.6920.69-2.60-2.60
North FloridaASun4.444.4442.8642.86-0.63-0.63
LipscombASun4.404.4044.4444.44-0.49-0.49
JacksonvilleASun4.404.4030.7730.77-1.69-1.69
Northern KentuckyASun4.384.3828.5728.57-1.88-1.88
FIUCUSA1.891.8944.4444.44-0.21-0.21
ChattanoogaSC1.871.8753.5753.570.130.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.841.8470.0070.000.740.74
Youngstown St.Horz1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
Kent St.MAC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Georgia SouthernSC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.48-0.48
IndianaB101.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
CincinnatiAmer1.781.7881.2581.251.111.11
Georgia TechACC1.781.7846.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Mississippi St.SEC1.781.7840.6240.62-0.33-0.33
IPFWSum1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
SamfordSC0.280.2833.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
FurmanSC0.200.2025.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
UCFAmer0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.12-0.12
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
MississippiSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
FloridaSEC0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
DavidsonSC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
ClemsonACC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
NebraskaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Appalachian St.SC0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
DenverSum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
ElonSC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01