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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:319.0
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:301
Current SOS:301
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:4-11
Expected Conf Record:4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC Record:4-11
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22319.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Syracuse (69.0)ACCA89-42L0%0.0
11-16California (95.0)P12A93-59L0%0.0
11-19Mercer (212.0)SCA74-66L0%0.0
11-21North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA68-55L0%0.0
11-22Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACN83-80W100%0.0
11-26Samford (305.0)SCH84-71W100%0.0
11-29Chattanooga (112.0)SCH77-69W100%0.0
12-2FIU (217.0)CUSAA59-38L0%0.0
12-6Kent St. (94.0)MACH46-58L0%0.0
12-8Butler (31.0)BEA93-51L0%0.0
12-17Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA84-90W100%0.0
12-20UMBC (346.0)AEH53-66L0%0.0
12-22Elon (259.0)CAAH65-67L0%0.0
12-27Illinois (73.0)B10A93-45L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA73-62L0%0.0
1-10USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA68-65L0%0.0
1-14Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA76-72L0%0.0
1-17Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH77-91L0%0.0
1-22Stetson (335.0)ASunH88-82W100%0.0
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH48-54L0%0.0
1-29North Florida (162.0)ASunA86-67L0%0.0
1-31Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA50-51W100%0.0
2-7USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH46-74L0%0.0
2-12Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH78-65W100%0.0
2-14North Florida (162.0)ASunH51-67L0%0.0
2-19Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA54-53L0%0.0
2-21Stetson (335.0)ASunA56-61W100%0.0
2-26Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH53-78L0%0.0
2-28Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA94-75L0%0.0
3-3USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA90-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun26.3526.3527.9427.94-11.63-11.63
USC UpstateASun5.835.8359.2659.261.081.08
North FloridaASun4.324.3262.0762.071.041.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.254.2562.9662.961.101.10
LipscombASun4.254.2534.6234.62-1.31-1.31
Northern KentuckyASun4.194.1934.6234.62-1.29-1.29
JacksonvilleASun4.164.1625.9325.93-2.00-2.00
StetsonASun4.164.1623.0823.08-2.24-2.24
ChattanoogaSC1.921.9268.9768.970.730.73
FIUCUSA1.871.8743.3343.33-0.25-0.25
SamfordSC1.831.8340.0040.00-0.37-0.37
MercerSC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
Tennessee St.OVC1.731.737.147.14-1.48-1.48
Kent St.MAC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
CaliforniaP121.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
North Dakota St.Sum1.721.7268.9768.970.650.65
ElonCAA1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Alcorn St.SWAC1.721.7217.2417.24-1.13-1.13
ButlerBE1.691.6967.7467.740.600.60
SyracuseACC1.691.6956.6756.670.230.23
IllinoisB101.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
UMBCAE1.671.6710.3410.34-1.32-1.32
Florida A&MMEAC0.340.346.906.90-0.29-0.29
FurmanSC0.280.2829.0329.03-0.12-0.12
Austin PeayOVC0.250.2521.4321.43-0.15-0.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.250.2548.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.250.2526.6726.67-0.11-0.11
NorthwesternB100.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
IowaB100.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
VMISC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.160.1629.6329.63-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
TexasB120.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
OhioMAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
PittsburghACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.020.02
XavierBE0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
IdahoBSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
ToledoMAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01