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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:292.4
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:131
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:3-6
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:26



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18228.80.13%
9-19250.32.67%
8-20269.213.78%
7-21286.534.04%
6-22301.635.60%
5-23315.413.77%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Alabama (70.1)SECA77-64L0%0.0
11-16LSU (86.5)SECA91-69L0%0.0
11-18Arizona St. (79.5)P12A91-53L0%0.0
11-21Samford (248.8)SCA77-65L0%0.0
11-23IUPUI (178.2)SumH71-63W100%0.0
11-24Belmont (82.7)OVCH55-80L0%0.0
11-28Tennessee St. (151.2)OVCH49-56L0%0.0
11-30Elon (138.0)CAAA103-93L0%0.0
12-2Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH61-41W100%0.0
12-5West Virginia (9.9)B12A87-54L0%0.0
12-16Louisville (17.8)ACCA94-57L0%0.0
12-18Chattanooga (41.8)SCA78-66L0%0.0
12-22Indiana (39.1)B10A99-72L0%0.0
12-30Mercer (132.1)SCH73-76L0%0.0
1-9Lipscomb (271.7)ASunH102-86W100%0.0
1-14Jacksonville (243.0)ASunA83-70L0%0.0
1-16North Florida (137.1)ASunA93-78L0%0.0
1-21Florida Gulf Coast (217.2)ASunH74-79L0%0.0
1-23Stetson (303.6)ASunH79-84L0%0.0
1-27USC Upstate (326.3)ASunA75-78W100%0.0
1-30NJIT (186.2)ASunH67-75L0%0.0
2-1USC Upstate (326.3)ASunH75-62W100%0.0
2-6NJIT (186.2)ASunA78-59L0%0.0
2-11North Florida (137.1)ASunH0-023%-8.1
2-13Jacksonville (243.0)ASunH0-050%0.1
2-18Stetson (303.6)ASunA0-042%-2.1
2-20Florida Gulf Coast (217.2)ASunA0-014%-11.8
2-25Lipscomb (271.7)ASunA0-026%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun26.2826.3419.5922.39-15.98-14.54
LipscombASun2.944.4826.0928.72-1.40-1.91
North FloridaASun2.814.4563.6465.470.771.37
StetsonASun2.804.4420.0023.64-1.68-2.34
JacksonvilleASun2.724.3847.6247.84-0.13-0.19
NJITASun4.744.3650.0051.950.000.17
USC UpstateASun4.734.3525.0025.11-2.36-2.16
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.654.3445.0048.61-0.27-0.12
Tennessee St.OVC2.372.0466.6763.820.790.56
BelmontOVC2.362.0066.6765.470.790.62
SamfordSC2.421.9839.1340.56-0.53-0.37
ChattanoogaSC2.361.9786.3686.161.721.42
Florida A&MMEAC2.321.9526.3226.13-1.10-0.93
MercerSC2.361.9168.1867.930.860.69
LSUSEC2.271.9160.8757.690.490.29
LouisvilleACC2.271.8878.2675.281.280.95
West VirginiaB122.231.8578.2677.331.261.01
AlabamaSEC2.221.8459.0954.450.400.16
Arizona St.P122.221.8252.1750.060.100.00
ElonCAA2.171.7950.0048.650.00-0.05
IndianaB102.171.7978.2673.201.230.83
IUPUISum2.171.7941.6741.14-0.36-0.32
The CitadelSC0.430.3231.8230.05-0.16-0.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.3031.8236.14-0.07-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.330.2924.0024.17-0.17-0.15
UNC GreensboroSC0.240.2827.2731.06-0.11-0.11
FIUCUSA0.250.2740.9145.29-0.05-0.02
FloridaSEC0.190.2566.6766.330.060.08
Texas A&MSEC0.290.2575.0075.330.140.13
Austin PeayOVC0.280.2540.0042.85-0.06-0.04
KentuckySEC0.270.2475.0072.630.140.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2265.2264.370.070.06
IPFWSum0.190.2270.8368.590.080.08
NavyPat0.250.2064.0064.480.070.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1959.0959.370.030.04
FurmanSC0.230.1954.1754.080.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1928.5731.30-0.06-0.07
WoffordSC0.230.1943.4846.22-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.230.1864.0057.920.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1850.0053.000.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1652.0050.230.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1650.0052.380.000.01
VMISC0.090.1615.0016.73-0.06-0.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1537.5043.37-0.05-0.02
IllinoisB100.140.1545.8344.11-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1586.9680.370.140.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1429.1733.11-0.04-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1341.6739.46-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1340.0038.97-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.1340.0040.34-0.04-0.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1341.6741.24-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1373.9174.700.070.06
South FloridaAmer0.140.1320.0019.76-0.08-0.08
DaytonA100.140.1386.9682.150.100.08
ClemsonACC0.190.1258.3358.370.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.140.1245.8346.63-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.130.1254.1751.780.010.00
South AlabamaSB0.180.1233.3334.19-0.06-0.04
AuburnSEC0.140.1239.1335.44-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.140.1275.0071.800.070.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1250.0049.050.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1052.1754.140.000.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.6461.480.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1026.0929.18-0.05-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1031.8232.69-0.04-0.03
WinthropBSth0.150.1065.0063.440.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0969.5764.900.040.03
RichmondA100.100.0956.5255.730.010.01
UMKCWAC0.140.0928.5732.73-0.06-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.0928.5733.35-0.06-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0939.1341.03-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0940.0043.42-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.090.0925.0026.74-0.05-0.04
Saint LouisA100.090.0934.7832.42-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.090.0934.7833.05-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0959.0955.220.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0963.6460.930.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.140.0970.8369.490.060.04
St. John'sBE0.140.0925.0023.45-0.07-0.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0970.8368.000.040.03
NebraskaB100.090.0952.0050.780.000.00
TexasB120.090.0966.6762.210.030.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0943.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0939.1341.11-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.130.0964.0062.040.040.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0970.8367.820.040.03
OklahomaB120.090.0986.9682.580.070.06
VirginiaACC0.090.0983.3378.470.060.05
Wake ForestACC0.140.0941.6739.91-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0725.0033.20-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0738.1037.70-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0750.0045.820.00-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0719.0520.33-0.03-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0771.4368.750.020.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0740.9139.26-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0747.3749.90-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0730.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0754.5552.540.010.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0721.7424.20-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0725.0026.87-0.05-0.03
UABCUSA0.100.0782.6179.390.060.04
UCFAmer0.050.0750.0044.680.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0743.4850.66-0.010.00
HoustonAmer0.100.0670.8367.980.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0671.4369.430.040.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0645.4549.69-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.6415.80-0.07-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.040.0647.8350.01-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.45-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.050.0673.9174.060.020.03
AkronMAC0.050.0682.6181.130.030.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0676.0076.320.050.03
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0656.0056.490.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.220.030.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.32-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0613.6418.18-0.03-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.18-0.02-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0665.2264.230.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0665.2260.580.030.01
LafayettePat0.090.0620.8321.68-0.05-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.650.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.680.020.03
ProvidenceBE0.090.0672.0069.150.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0630.4331.21-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0681.8282.620.060.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.090.0634.7835.64-0.03-0.02
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.33-0.05-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.410.020.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0681.8283.030.060.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.02
YaleIvy0.090.0673.6874.680.040.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MichiganB100.090.0670.8366.720.040.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.540.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0666.6762.560.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.21-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0658.3358.480.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0663.6462.150.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.920.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.250.060.03
PurdueB100.040.0680.0077.960.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0658.3359.960.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.330.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0673.9168.480.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0665.2262.830.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1751.980.000.00
IowaB100.000.0682.6180.520.000.04
KansasB120.090.0682.6179.190.060.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0658.3356.290.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0617.6529.03-0.06-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.580.030.04
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.23-0.05-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0645.8342.32-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0650.0046.530.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.35-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.300.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0656.5253.270.010.00
UNLVMWC0.090.0652.1755.090.000.01
USCP120.050.0678.2673.050.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.090.0662.5060.110.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0636.3631.98-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0662.5056.960.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0435.0034.80-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0414.2920.65-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.049.0912.25-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0459.0961.310.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0419.0525.90-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0414.2924.86-0.04-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0473.0872.640.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0452.1751.940.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.11-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.16-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
BYUWCC0.040.0366.6769.490.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.89-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0321.7422.74-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0361.9058.060.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.190.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.70-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.48-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.07-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.310.020.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.72-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0336.0034.92-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.190.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.160.010.00
ButlerBE0.040.0370.8368.990.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0357.8956.090.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0350.0049.600.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.760.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0358.3359.360.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.32-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.860.040.02
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.73-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.710.020.01
ColoradoP120.000.0369.5765.310.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.54-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0382.6177.520.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.400.030.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.05-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.450.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.67-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.070.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.620.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UtahP120.000.0370.8368.500.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01