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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:146.0
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:263
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-7
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:241
Expected OOC SOS:245



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12146.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Nebraska (48.0)B10A79-55L0%0.0
11-12Hartford (234.0)AEH65-51W100%0.0
11-15Furman (339.0)SCA69-70W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA82-62L0%0.0
12-1Iona (59.0)MAACH72-90L0%0.0
12-7FIU (202.0)CUSAA72-61L0%0.0
12-14Samford (313.0)SCH83-51W100%0.0
12-17South Florida (232.0)AmerA68-66L0%0.0
12-19Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA66-53L0%0.0
12-22Florida A&M (295.0)MEACN68-77W100%0.0
12-23Radford (240.0)BSthN64-63L0%0.0
12-30Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH60-56W100%0.0
1-1Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH75-62W100%0.0
1-5Stetson (333.0)ASunA55-68W100%0.0
1-9North Florida (189.0)ASunA75-79W100%0.0
1-11Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA76-69L0%0.0
1-16USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH63-60W100%0.0
1-18East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH90-62W100%0.0
1-23Mercer (81.0)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
1-25Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA62-83W100%0.0
1-31Stetson (333.0)ASunH71-68W100%0.0
2-6Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH100-71W100%0.0
2-8North Florida (189.0)ASunH73-46W100%0.0
2-13East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA89-81L0%0.0
2-15USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA80-84W100%0.0
2-21Mercer (81.0)ASunH75-61W100%0.0
2-23Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH78-68W100%0.0
2-27Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA92-71L0%0.0
3-1Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA72-92W100%0.0
3-4Stetson (333.0)ASunH77-55W100%0.0
3-6East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH69-64W100%0.0
3-9Mercer (81.0)ASunH60-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.5926.5965.1565.158.068.06
MercerASun5.735.7375.0075.002.862.86
East Tennessee St.ASun5.715.7155.1755.170.590.59
StetsonASun5.705.7025.0025.00-2.85-2.85
USC UpstateASun4.244.2458.6258.620.730.73
JacksonvilleASun4.234.2334.6234.62-1.30-1.30
LipscombASun4.184.1848.1548.15-0.15-0.15
North FloridaASun4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun4.154.1514.8114.81-2.92-2.92
Northern KentuckyASun4.114.1132.1432.14-1.47-1.47
Florida A&MMEAC1.771.7741.3841.38-0.31-0.31
SamfordSC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
FIUCUSA1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
South FloridaAmer1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Mississippi St.SEC1.671.6740.6240.62-0.31-0.31
FurmanSC1.611.6126.9226.92-0.75-0.75
HartfordAE1.561.5653.1253.120.100.10
IonaMAAC1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
NebraskaB101.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
North Carolina St.ACC1.561.5660.6160.610.330.33
RadfordBSth1.561.5658.6258.620.270.27
ChattanoogaSC0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.2316.6716.67-0.15-0.15
Austin PeayOVC0.230.2335.7135.71-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
DavidsonSC0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
IndianaB100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
UCFAmer0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
The CitadelSC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
WoffordSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
FloridaSEC0.130.1394.1294.120.120.12
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1319.2319.23-0.08-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
ClemsonACC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.090.09
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
YaleIvy0.100.1051.8551.850.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.2121.21-0.06-0.06
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01