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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:98.1
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:171
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-1
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:67
Expected OOC SOS:70



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-338.60.07%
23-446.71.18%
22-556.24.45%
21-667.311.34%
20-780.420.34%
19-895.323.85%
18-9111.319.67%
17-10129.112.09%
16-11147.65.12%
15-12170.31.47%
14-13190.40.38%
13-14217.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWH81-75W100%0.0
11-19Ohio (199.5)MACH79-62W100%0.0
11-24Marist (333.7)MAACN58-43W100%0.0
11-25San Francisco (121.9)WCCN62-47W100%0.0
11-26Green Bay (53.0)HorzN45-59L0%0.0
11-30South Dakota St. (130.5)SumN58-71W100%0.0
12-7Massachusetts (93.1)A10N75-84W100%0.0
12-14FIU (164.5)CUSAH63-69L0%0.0
12-19Furman (279.1)SCH83-78W100%0.0
12-23Iona (95.6)MAACA0-031%-5.7
12-28Xavier (27.1)BEA0-013%-13.4
12-30Pittsburgh (115.2)ACCA0-035%-4.5
1-5UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWA0-024%-8.2
1-10Stetson (315.6)ASunH0-094%18.3
1-14North Florida (153.3)ASunA0-046%-1.1
1-17Jacksonville (339.4)ASunH0-098%23.6
1-22USC Upstate (165.3)ASunA0-046%-1.3
1-24Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunA0-086%12.7
1-29Lipscomb (261.2)ASunH0-088%14.0
1-31Northern Kentucky (216.9)ASunH0-086%12.8
2-7Stetson (315.6)ASunA0-080%10.0
2-12Northern Kentucky (216.9)ASunA0-065%4.5
2-14Lipscomb (261.2)ASunA0-069%5.6
2-19Kennesaw St. (311.4)ASunH0-096%21.1
2-21USC Upstate (165.3)ASunH0-073%7.1
2-25North Florida (153.3)ASunH0-073%7.2
2-28Jacksonville (339.4)ASunA0-090%15.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun27.7726.4370.7372.3011.5111.79
Kennesaw St.ASun0.314.5533.3330.27-0.10-1.80
StetsonASun0.314.5410.0028.32-0.25-1.97
USC UpstateASun0.314.5463.6469.320.081.76
JacksonvilleASun0.004.5210.0018.99-0.00-2.80
North FloridaASun0.004.5250.0059.160.000.83
Northern KentuckyASun0.004.5133.3344.64-0.00-0.48
LipscombASun0.004.5122.2239.85-0.00-0.92
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.563.7042.8665.95-0.791.18
FIUCUSA5.562.0537.5048.64-1.39-0.06
IonaMAAC0.001.9460.0069.210.000.75
MaristMAAC5.561.9110.0016.71-4.44-1.27
MassachusettsA105.561.8860.0054.241.110.16
FurmanSC5.561.8525.0033.03-2.78-0.63
Green BayHorz5.561.8571.4376.122.380.97
OhioMAC5.561.8550.0039.160.00-0.40
PittsburghACC0.001.8570.0051.340.000.05
San FranciscoWCC5.561.8555.5656.100.620.23
South Dakota St.Sum5.561.8577.7861.873.090.44
XavierBE0.001.8572.7366.920.000.63
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.370.0011.94-0.00-0.28
ChattanoogaSC0.000.2740.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.310.2336.3637.85-0.08-0.06
SamfordSC0.310.2333.3330.28-0.10-0.09
HawaiiBW0.530.2266.6754.470.180.02
Florida St.ACC0.250.2254.5541.980.02-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2122.2229.80-0.00-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.210.0023.69-0.00-0.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2044.4449.14-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.560.2037.5052.01-0.140.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2045.4543.23-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2018.1830.76-0.00-0.08
IPFWSum0.000.2050.0054.190.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.2042.8649.02-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.350.2044.4444.02-0.04-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1936.3650.71-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.510.1830.0038.01-0.20-0.04
BelmontOVC0.400.1863.6464.880.110.05
Wright St.Horz0.310.1760.0057.890.060.03
UC DavisBW0.310.1787.5068.000.230.06
Cal PolyBW0.280.1637.5041.94-0.07-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1644.4451.07-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.350.1654.5557.570.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.250.1555.5662.150.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1512.5029.51-0.00-0.06
SienaMAAC0.250.1533.3349.54-0.08-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.1455.5635.900.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.140.0015.00-0.00-0.09
Appalachian St.SB0.710.1337.5034.64-0.18-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1344.4437.40-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1363.6442.810.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1375.0058.160.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1318.1822.49-0.00-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.000.1337.5046.38-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1350.0043.310.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1333.3349.35-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1355.5655.280.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.400.1277.7865.110.220.04
ButlerBE0.000.1272.7367.960.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.1260.0058.120.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0037.64-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.250.1250.0058.370.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1244.4450.60-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1250.0053.250.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1236.3648.18-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.510.1266.6742.600.17-0.02
ColoradoP120.280.1066.6758.000.090.02
Morehead St.OVC0.350.1016.6737.21-0.23-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1063.6461.520.000.02
WisconsinB100.350.1090.9188.840.280.08
BuffaloMAC0.280.1077.7870.890.150.04
UMKCWAC0.280.1020.0040.84-0.17-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1040.0032.26-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.1060.0076.250.060.05
EvansvilleMVC1.020.1077.7872.060.570.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.310.1066.6762.580.100.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.310.1037.5050.31-0.080.00
LibertyBSth0.310.1025.0035.39-0.15-0.03
VMISC0.250.1033.3338.93-0.08-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1090.9183.090.000.07
DavidsonA100.000.1088.8977.320.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1080.0053.260.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1027.2732.45-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1077.7875.550.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.400.100.0027.67-0.40-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.1066.6754.130.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.1027.2728.86-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0061.480.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0970.0068.340.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.310.09100.0084.930.310.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.250.0960.0043.160.05-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.250.0975.0057.390.130.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0733.3341.02-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0790.9179.980.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0766.6758.210.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0760.0056.150.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0775.0067.140.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0785.7170.530.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0740.0048.02-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0771.4363.770.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0066.220.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.350.0762.5072.070.090.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0745.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0718.1820.86-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0790.9168.230.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0760.0062.070.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0730.0028.65-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0730.0031.48-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6744.720.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3361.74-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0737.5056.46-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0766.6764.770.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0714.2932.16-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0720.0035.33-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0781.8273.180.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0790.9170.080.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0720.0040.93-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0780.0073.540.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.350.07100.0078.210.350.04
DenverSum0.000.0745.4555.13-0.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0763.6465.220.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0770.0076.180.000.03
IowaB100.000.0766.6759.420.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0716.6743.20-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0037.570.00-0.02
KansasB120.350.0790.0070.680.280.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.37-0.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0044.08-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0770.0057.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0777.7856.220.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0766.6759.370.000.01
SeattleWAC0.350.0733.3343.83-0.12-0.01
SMUAmer0.350.0772.7375.710.160.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0766.6766.010.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0727.2738.30-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0740.0041.32-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0744.4457.69-0.000.01
Washington St.P120.350.0740.0028.13-0.07-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.88-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.310.06100.0087.090.310.05
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6765.500.000.02
Miami FLACC0.350.0681.8266.010.220.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.540.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.140.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.40-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0047.880.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.270.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.670.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0051.040.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5058.080.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.80-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0036.69-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0618.1825.30-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
Saint LouisA100.280.0660.0033.270.06-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0628.5727.11-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.220.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0654.5552.730.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0048.980.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.250.0691.6777.120.210.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6773.310.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.380.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.170.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.970.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.60-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8637.83-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.400.0318.1837.71-0.25-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.59-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.310.0345.4545.10-0.03-0.00
DrakeMVC0.350.0318.1819.46-0.22-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.350.0333.3337.91-0.12-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.310.03100.0067.700.310.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.330.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0355.5652.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.280.0316.6733.39-0.19-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.280.0311.1128.88-0.22-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0033.40-0.14-0.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0080.520.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.280.0354.5548.260.03-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.280.0316.6736.63-0.19-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.0333.3345.04-0.10-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.520.000.01
MontanaBSky0.280.0325.0052.35-0.140.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0390.0082.310.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.280.0350.0042.090.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.98-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0327.2735.36-0.13-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.250.0377.7868.780.140.01
BucknellPat0.250.0340.0036.66-0.05-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.250.0327.2729.17-0.11-0.01
PennIvy0.250.0337.5032.63-0.06-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.890.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.72-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2235.90-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.250.0385.7172.910.180.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.770.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.330.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0330.0029.75-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.250.0380.0063.910.150.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0360.0065.120.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.250.0370.0060.920.100.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0360.0057.700.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6778.020.000.02
VCUA100.000.0372.7375.740.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01