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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:149.9
Current RPI:167
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:217
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:5-0
Expected Conf Record:13-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-4
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:191
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8124.019.78%
19-9142.136.66%
18-10160.027.62%
17-11177.412.15%
16-12194.53.22%
15-13211.10.51%
14-14227.00.04%
13-15251.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (119.2)MVCH98-87W100%0.0
11-13Siena (267.3)MAACA53-86W100%0.0
11-18Bowling Green (189.0)MACA83-80L0%0.0
11-21Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAA85-72L0%0.0
11-24Denver (272.4)SumH79-71W100%0.0
11-25Navy (219.9)PatH70-54W100%0.0
11-26St. Francis NY (283.4)NECH75-51W100%0.0
12-2Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAH76-81L0%0.0
12-5Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAH88-92L0%0.0
12-9UT Arlington (121.1)SBA78-85W100%0.0
12-16Oral Roberts (219.5)SumH64-83L0%0.0
12-19FIU (288.5)CUSAA91-88L0%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (18.2)AmerA75-65L0%0.0
12-27Rhode Island (14.2)A10A80-60L0%0.0
1-6Stetson (306.0)ASunH90-52W100%0.0
1-11USC Upstate (335.3)ASunH75-58W100%0.0
1-13NJIT (276.2)ASunH68-54W100%0.0
1-18Lipscomb (132.1)ASunA83-88W100%0.0
1-20Kennesaw St. (313.5)ASunA49-66W100%0.0
1-24North Florida (242.2)ASunA0-077%8.2
1-27Jacksonville (302.1)ASunH0-095%17.8
1-29North Florida (242.2)ASunH0-091%14.6
2-3Jacksonville (302.1)ASunA0-085%11.4
2-8NJIT (276.2)ASunA0-072%6.5
2-10USC Upstate (335.3)ASunA0-087%12.3
2-15Kennesaw St. (313.5)ASunH0-093%16.4
2-17Lipscomb (132.1)ASunH0-076%7.9
2-22Stetson (306.0)ASunA0-080%9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.5226.4257.6567.544.069.27
USC UpstateASun2.934.4311.7618.91-2.24-2.76
North FloridaASun0.374.4031.5836.61-0.14-1.18
StetsonASun3.014.4035.2939.10-0.88-0.96
LipscombASun2.844.3956.2563.330.361.17
JacksonvilleASun0.304.3733.3335.63-0.10-1.25
Kennesaw St.ASun2.784.3717.6526.62-1.80-2.04
NJITASun2.784.3741.1844.87-0.49-0.45
Middle TennesseeCUSA5.423.6468.7572.852.031.66
FIUCUSA2.932.0431.2533.15-1.10-0.69
DenverSum2.911.9835.2937.93-0.86-0.48
NavyPat2.861.9263.1657.070.750.27
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.861.9133.3335.27-0.95-0.56
Oral RobertsSum2.701.8526.3229.94-1.28-0.74
Bowling GreenMAC2.701.8556.2547.950.34-0.08
St. Francis NYNEC2.771.8535.2936.51-0.81-0.50
Illinois St.MVC2.631.7950.0047.730.00-0.08
Rhode IslandA102.631.7982.3580.791.701.10
SienaMAAC2.631.7930.0030.93-1.05-0.68
UT ArlingtonSB2.631.7963.1664.150.690.51
Wichita St.Amer2.631.7977.7876.601.460.95
UABCUSA0.310.2561.1164.150.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.310.2352.9452.670.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.2350.0052.500.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2278.9576.770.140.12
North TexasCUSA0.070.2244.4446.66-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.2211.1117.68-0.05-0.14
Fort WayneSum0.210.2052.6351.680.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2044.4450.31-0.020.00
BelmontOVC0.300.2071.4374.670.130.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.300.2035.2940.46-0.09-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1923.5325.63-0.08-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1952.6355.280.010.02
MarshallCUSA0.150.1968.4263.610.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1941.1838.47-0.03-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1968.4270.820.050.08
South DakotaSum0.220.1773.6872.400.100.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.1672.2272.970.090.08
CampbellBSth0.220.1647.0647.41-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.300.1635.0026.13-0.09-0.08
Miami FLACC0.210.1677.7870.410.120.06
IonaMAAC0.210.1560.0064.130.040.04
TulsaAmer0.270.1555.0053.330.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1325.0028.02-0.07-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1357.8953.220.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1342.8635.22-0.01-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.1338.8940.78-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.220.1363.6457.610.060.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.1323.5332.57-0.04-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.1340.0042.51-0.01-0.02
MichiganB100.000.1376.1970.800.000.05
WagnerNEC0.150.1364.7164.560.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.220.1368.4259.020.080.02
BrownIvy0.220.1350.0045.130.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.150.1370.0058.090.060.02
South AlabamaSB0.220.1350.0045.850.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.1372.2274.940.030.06
Missouri St.MVC0.220.1370.0068.290.090.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.1342.1144.98-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.160.1333.3334.10-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.160.1341.1839.66-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.140.1350.0051.030.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.1366.6765.390.020.04
LafayettePat0.140.1322.2227.46-0.08-0.06
UCFAmer0.070.1368.4260.830.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.1346.6747.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1238.8944.070.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.200.1221.0521.99-0.11-0.07
BryantNEC0.200.129.5217.12-0.16-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.200.1230.0032.58-0.08-0.04
Kansas St.B120.140.1075.0065.320.070.03
Texas TechB120.160.1078.9571.750.090.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.1045.0047.06-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1025.0031.44-0.07-0.04
DrexelCAA0.150.1030.0030.97-0.06-0.04
Green BayHorz0.150.1025.0027.93-0.08-0.04
Seton HallBE0.150.1075.0067.910.070.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1052.6358.610.010.02
CreightonBE0.140.1075.0070.720.070.04
UMKCWAC0.140.1021.0524.76-0.08-0.05
HofstraCAA0.140.0957.8959.500.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.0941.1839.14-0.03-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0961.1158.710.000.02
VCUA100.000.0960.0059.710.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.220.0927.7831.08-0.10-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0957.1460.410.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0952.6347.500.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.220.0952.6345.860.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.220.0970.5975.960.090.05
ArmyPat0.140.0961.1160.440.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0944.4450.08-0.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.140.0966.6768.750.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.140.0950.0050.860.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0942.1146.09-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.0966.6765.630.070.03
BucknellPat0.060.0961.9068.000.010.03
LehighPat0.130.0938.8944.74-0.03-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0723.5328.71-0.04-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0790.4888.390.060.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0772.2268.930.030.03
TexasB120.080.0765.0058.600.020.01
ButlerBE0.070.0766.6763.070.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0731.5832.710.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0773.6869.660.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0768.4254.080.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0766.6755.900.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0770.0068.210.030.02
MercerSC0.070.0744.4454.87-0.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0763.6459.480.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0755.5657.250.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0765.0056.350.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0711.1115.300.00-0.05
RutgersB100.070.0755.0046.650.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0727.7832.67-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0757.8954.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0736.8432.75-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0726.3230.450.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.87-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0770.0061.460.030.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0780.0076.040.040.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0768.4269.260.000.03
YaleIvy0.070.0741.1847.61-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.150.0711.7612.80-0.12-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.600.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0610.0019.620.00-0.04
LSUSEC0.000.0661.1153.190.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.7183.760.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.880.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.150.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.0630.0033.48-0.06-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0652.9459.250.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.660.000.02
Little RockSB0.130.0622.2225.19-0.07-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0668.4254.040.050.01
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.03-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0661.1151.910.030.00
Notre DameACC0.140.0663.1661.000.040.01
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.92-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.150.0689.4776.990.120.03
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.890.020.01
DavidsonA100.000.0658.8261.440.000.01
DaytonA100.070.0647.3750.94-0.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.140.0644.4446.03-0.02-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.910.00-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0640.0042.69-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.200.040.03
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.150.0647.0641.38-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.140.0685.7182.120.100.04
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.430.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.150.0652.9460.230.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0655.0052.480.010.00
USCP120.150.0671.4368.300.060.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0647.3748.770.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.150.0636.8435.58-0.04-0.02
BYUWCC0.140.0680.9576.240.080.03
AmericanPat0.070.0625.0026.03-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0631.5836.23-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0650.0053.280.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0627.7838.12-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.380.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6765.550.000.02
HoustonAmer0.140.0678.9573.000.080.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.420.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.12-0.03-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.66-0.04-0.03
SMUAmer0.070.0670.0070.610.030.02
TempleAmer0.000.0652.6351.740.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
MemphisAmer0.060.0665.0058.540.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0657.1453.040.020.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0661.9063.170.010.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7841.030.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.0635.0031.82-0.04-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0350.0047.650.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0358.8257.130.010.00
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.790.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0368.4264.160.020.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.150.030.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.150.020.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0310.5318.34-0.05-0.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0363.1665.980.020.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.710.020.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.29-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0317.6534.76-0.05-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.350.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.93-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0366.6767.670.000.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.110.070.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0352.9452.250.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0357.8953.280.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.20-0.03-0.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.11-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.24-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.86-0.05-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.00-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0342.1132.46-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7868.030.040.01
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0331.5836.43-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.070.0338.8944.43-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.870.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0371.4370.250.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0378.9569.820.040.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0365.0065.330.000.01
VermontAE0.060.0375.0077.870.030.02