Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	94.0
Current RPI:	94
Expected SOS:	211
Current SOS:	211
Current Record:	22-10
Expected Record:	22-10
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	16-5
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	57
Expected OOC SOS:	25

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-10	94.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	A	80-57	L	0%
11-13	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	H	63-51	W	100%
11-18	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	88-67	L	0%
11-21	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	50-48	W	100%
11-22	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	72-66	W	100%
11-24	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	79-68	L	0%
11-28	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	62-86	W	100%
12-1	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	H	65-50	W	100%
12-4	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	83-72	L	0%
12-13	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	76-73	W	100%
12-22	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	84-78	L	0%
12-31	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	59-68	W	100%
1-2	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	77-70	L	0%
1-5	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	78-55	W	100%
1-7	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	75-73	W	100%
1-10	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	71-72	W	100%
1-12	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	85-75	L	0%
1-17	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	78-87	L	0%
1-19	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	73-54	W	100%
1-25	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	96-65	W	100%
1-31	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	75-89	W	100%
2-2	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	78-81	W	100%
2-7	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	67-43	W	100%
2-9	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	74-49	W	100%
2-14	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	53-60	W	100%
2-16	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	84-74	L	0%
2-22	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	80-71	L	0%
2-28	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	60-57	W	100%
3-2	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	67-49	W	100%
3-6	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	N	73-63	W	100%
3-8	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	N	72-58	W	100%
3-9	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	75-88	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	26.59	26.59	74.24	74.24	12.89	12.89
Stetson	ASun	5.74	5.74	48.15	48.15	-0.21	-0.21
Mercer	ASun	5.73	5.73	68.97	68.97	2.17	2.17
North Florida	ASun	5.62	5.62	42.86	42.86	-0.80	-0.80
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.24	4.24	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.21	4.21	27.59	27.59	-1.89	-1.89
Jacksonville	ASun	4.18	4.18	42.86	42.86	-0.60	-0.60
Lipscomb	ASun	4.18	4.18	33.33	33.33	-1.39	-1.39
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.11	4.11	10.71	10.71	-3.23	-3.23
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.10	4.10	44.00	44.00	-0.49	-0.49
Miami FL	ACC	1.74	1.74	84.38	84.38	1.20	1.20
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.72	1.72	75.76	75.76	0.88	0.88
Florida International	SB	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Duke	ACC	1.63	1.63	83.87	83.87	1.11	1.11
Samford	SC	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.59	1.59	29.03	29.03	-0.67	-0.67
Toledo	MAC	1.59	1.59	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
Iowa St.	B12	1.56	1.56	65.62	65.62	0.49	0.49
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.56	1.56	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Maine	AE	1.56	1.56	32.14	32.14	-0.56	-0.56
St. John's	BE	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.20	0.20	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.10	-0.10
Chattanooga	SC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Furman	SC	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Georgia	SEC	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00