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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:93.4
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:50
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:79
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-336.60.35%
23-444.02.05%
22-554.17.76%
21-665.315.24%
20-779.720.35%
19-894.021.55%
18-9111.816.51%
17-10130.49.55%
16-11151.94.32%
15-12173.91.55%
14-13198.50.60%
13-14216.00.11%
12-15235.80.04%
11-16241.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida (9.6)SECA80-59L0%0.0
11-16UT Arlington (72.7)SBH85-72W100%0.0
11-18Baylor (11.5)B12A81-72L0%0.0
11-20Michigan St. (41.5)B10A78-77L0%0.0
11-23Binghamton (270.8)AEH69-53W100%0.0
11-25Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH68-67W100%0.0
12-4Georgia Southern (167.0)SBA0-061%3.4
12-9Siena (144.9)MAACH0-073%7.5
12-11FIU (267.5)CUSAH0-087%13.7
12-13Georgia Southern (167.0)SBH0-079%9.6
12-17La Salle (107.7)A10A0-043%-2.1
12-20Louisiana Tech (111.7)CUSAA0-041%-2.8
12-28Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA0-072%6.9
1-7Stetson (322.2)ASunA0-087%13.7
1-12Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunA0-085%12.3
1-14Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA0-078%9.4
1-19USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH0-093%17.4
1-21NJIT (192.6)ASunH0-082%10.8
1-25North Florida (270.2)ASunA0-079%9.7
1-28Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH0-082%11.2
1-30North Florida (270.2)ASunH0-091%15.9
2-4Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-066%5.0
2-9Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-090%15.5
2-11Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunH0-094%18.5
2-16NJIT (192.6)ASunA0-065%4.7
2-18USC Upstate (277.8)ASunA0-082%11.2
2-23Stetson (322.2)ASunH0-095%19.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun28.3526.4150.0075.520.0013.48
North FloridaASun0.524.5714.2933.04-0.37-1.55
StetsonASun0.004.5428.5729.76-0.00-1.84
JacksonvilleASun0.004.5457.1462.190.001.11
LipscombASun0.004.5114.2934.40-0.00-1.41
NJITASun0.004.5142.8652.14-0.000.19
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.5128.5731.79-0.00-1.64
USC UpstateASun0.004.5133.3340.25-0.00-0.88
Georgia SouthernSB0.003.7750.0046.550.00-0.26
FIUCUSA0.602.2516.6734.44-0.40-0.70
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.9520.0034.62-0.00-0.60
FloridaSEC8.331.9285.7174.505.950.94
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.9240.0068.26-0.000.70
UT ArlingtonSB8.331.9266.6767.262.780.66
BinghamtonAE8.851.9150.0042.460.00-0.29
Long Beach St.BW8.931.880.0040.71-8.93-0.35
Michigan St.B108.931.8842.8660.31-1.280.39
BaylorB128.851.88100.0073.588.850.89
La SalleA100.001.8560.0051.590.000.06
SienaMAAC0.001.8528.5751.30-0.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.3683.3361.150.000.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.260.0023.46-0.00-0.14
Georgia St.SB0.000.2360.0067.410.000.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.2266.6761.340.000.05
MinnesotaB100.600.2285.7165.670.430.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2016.6731.91-0.00-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.000.2066.6751.090.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.2025.0043.26-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.2028.5728.46-0.00-0.08
MercerSC0.520.1950.0053.050.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1920.0036.00-0.00-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1928.5739.44-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1920.0032.60-0.00-0.07
TroySB0.000.1933.3332.23-0.00-0.07
ColgatePat0.000.1720.0041.31-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1783.3355.200.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.1666.6756.020.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1685.7173.010.000.08
UABCUSA0.000.1657.1461.940.000.04
BelmontOVC0.520.1640.0061.37-0.100.04
IowaB100.000.1642.8644.33-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1614.2928.66-0.00-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.000.1640.0030.80-0.00-0.06
Texas St.SB0.000.1650.0043.310.00-0.02
FordhamA100.600.1657.1443.680.09-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.600.1683.3362.840.400.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0042.710.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0033.54-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.1340.0027.05-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0024.32-0.00-0.07
Miami FLACC0.520.1371.4365.740.220.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1320.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.1316.6733.82-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1383.3370.360.000.05
UMass LowellAE0.000.1325.0040.81-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1380.0055.340.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1342.8637.60-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1385.7169.010.000.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1333.3323.33-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3336.31-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.1383.3358.080.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.1342.8635.68-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1360.0070.140.000.05
MichiganB100.000.1371.4366.530.000.04
PurdueB100.000.1371.4374.450.000.06
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0047.990.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1360.0052.760.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.1360.0057.900.000.02
TexasB120.600.1250.0036.240.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.12100.0080.780.000.08
KansasB120.520.1285.7176.170.370.06
DavidsonA100.000.1083.3368.880.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1050.0047.560.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1057.1440.590.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6732.240.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1040.0043.86-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1071.4349.770.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1050.0064.840.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1083.3359.600.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1066.6765.810.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1042.8634.17-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.1071.4363.570.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1014.2934.56-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.940.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.1050.0045.920.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1025.0034.47-0.00-0.03
VermontAE0.000.1062.5071.630.000.04
VCUA101.190.1085.7178.150.850.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1085.7168.390.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.600.0957.1467.020.090.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.520.0966.6770.740.170.04
OklahomaB120.000.0983.3351.920.000.00
KentuckySEC0.520.09100.0086.250.520.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0052.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0059.670.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0733.3338.76-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0757.1447.320.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3353.29-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.77-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0771.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0725.0024.28-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0771.4355.750.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0740.0041.65-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0042.420.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0785.7180.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0775.0047.510.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0720.0034.22-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6770.930.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0712.5022.55-0.00-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2929.81-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0750.0051.820.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0733.3331.87-0.00-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0716.6725.61-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0750.0057.480.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0766.6769.810.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0049.010.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0660.0070.500.000.03
CornellIvy0.600.0628.5730.63-0.26-0.02
St. John'sBE1.120.0628.5733.92-0.48-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
LouisvilleACC1.120.0685.7175.950.800.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.600.060.0019.30-0.60-0.04
Wichita St.MVC1.040.0671.4386.030.450.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.520.0687.5078.680.390.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.600.0340.0037.65-0.12-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.600.0312.5048.98-0.45-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.520.0385.7180.010.370.02
OregonP120.600.0371.4366.730.260.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.600.0350.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
UCLAP120.520.03100.0083.550.520.02
WashingtonP120.520.0357.1452.630.070.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.02
ArizonaP120.520.0385.7170.990.370.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.520.03100.0091.060.520.02
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.520.030.0024.77-0.52-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.520.0371.4354.520.220.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01