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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:137.0
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:261
Current Record:19-10
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:12-4
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10137.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH81-75W100%0.0
11-19Ohio (231.0)MACH79-62W100%0.0
11-24Marist (317.0)MAACN58-43W100%0.0
11-25San Francisco (181.0)WCCN62-47W100%0.0
11-26Green Bay (54.0)HorzN45-59L0%0.0
11-30South Dakota St. (90.0)SumN58-71W100%0.0
12-7Massachusetts (80.0)A10N75-84W100%0.0
12-14FIU (217.0)CUSAH63-69L0%0.0
12-19Furman (293.0)SCH83-78W100%0.0
12-23Iona (51.0)MAACA86-67L0%0.0
12-28Xavier (30.0)BEA71-57L0%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCA71-54L0%0.0
1-5UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA63-50L0%0.0
1-10Stetson (335.0)ASunH72-50W100%0.0
1-14North Florida (162.0)ASunA80-64L0%0.0
1-17Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH79-50W100%0.0
1-22USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA68-71W100%0.0
1-24Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA48-54W100%0.0
1-29Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH78-62W100%0.0
1-31Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH74-64W100%0.0
2-7Stetson (335.0)ASunA51-67W100%0.0
2-12Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA59-65W100%0.0
2-14Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA74-76W100%0.0
2-19Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH54-53W100%0.0
2-21USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH86-72W100%0.0
2-25North Florida (162.0)ASunH62-76L0%0.0
2-28Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA75-67L0%0.0
3-3Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH81-63W100%0.0
3-5USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH62-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.5426.5465.8965.898.438.43
USC UpstateASun6.096.0966.6766.672.032.03
JacksonvilleASun5.945.9423.0823.08-3.20-3.20
North FloridaASun4.494.4962.0762.071.081.08
Kennesaw St.ASun4.394.3928.5728.57-1.88-1.88
LipscombASun4.394.3942.3142.31-0.68-0.68
StetsonASun4.354.3523.0823.08-2.34-2.34
Northern KentuckyASun4.334.3342.3142.31-0.67-0.67
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.453.4557.1457.140.490.49
FIUCUSA1.931.9343.3343.33-0.26-0.26
IonaMAAC1.801.8075.7675.760.930.93
MaristMAAC1.771.7722.5822.58-0.97-0.97
MassachusettsA101.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
FurmanSC1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
Green BayHorz1.721.7272.4172.410.770.77
OhioMAC1.721.7234.4834.48-0.54-0.54
PittsburghACC1.721.7254.8454.840.170.17
San FranciscoWCC1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
South Dakota St.Sum1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
XavierBE1.721.7260.6160.610.370.37
Florida A&MMEAC0.380.386.906.90-0.33-0.33
ChattanoogaSC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
SamfordSC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.2324.1424.14-0.12-0.12
ManhattanMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.2130.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
IPFWSum0.210.2148.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
IdahoBSky0.180.1839.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
UCFAmer0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
UC DavisBW0.140.1479.3179.310.080.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
ElonCAA0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
WoffordSC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
ColoradoP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.090.0981.8281.820.050.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
TexasB120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
KansasB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02