Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	206.9
Current RPI:	207
Expected SOS:	238
Current SOS:	267
Current Record:	11-11
Expected Record:	14-14
Current Conf Record:	7-5
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.69%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	241
Expected OOC SOS:	234

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-11	145.5	0.52%
16-12	164.1	4.55%
15-13	182.8	17.57%
14-14	201.5	33.00%
13-15	218.9	29.92%
12-16	236.8	12.58%
11-17	254.2	1.85%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	73-72	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	68-59	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	A	65-64	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Miami FL (64.4)	ACC	A	60-50	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	73-67	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	77-74	L	0%	0.0
12-3	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	H	72-63	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Nebraska (117.6)	B10	A	51-50	L	0%	0.0
12-19	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	H	75-80	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	H	83-80	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	84-72	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	A	76-54	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	A	55-62	W	100%	0.0
1-7	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	H	81-88	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	77-66	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	A	80-84	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	A	95-53	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	A	85-92	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Longwood (311.5)	ind	H	101-58	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Kennesaw St. (317.6)	ASun	H	92-74	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Mercer (98.0)	ASun	H	66-75	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	A	55-65	W	100%	0.0
2-6	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	0-0		40%	-2.6
2-11	Belmont (70.5)	ASun	H	0-0		20%	-9.1
2-13	Lipscomb (208.1)	ASun	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-17	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	0-0		75%	7.3
2-23	South Carolina Upstate (159.3)	ASun	A	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-25	East Tennessee St. (190.6)	ASun	A	0-0		32%	-5.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	26.44	26.41	52.13	50.38	1.12	0.20
North Florida	ASun	3.03	4.58	43.48	44.31	-0.40	-0.52
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	3.02	4.58	52.38	54.12	0.14	0.38
Belmont	ASun	3.01	4.55	68.18	72.09	1.10	2.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	5.15	4.55	9.52	12.51	-4.17	-3.41
Mercer	ASun	5.15	4.55	68.18	69.61	1.87	1.79
Jacksonville	ASun	5.14	4.55	19.05	23.63	-3.18	-2.40
Lipscomb	ASun	3.01	4.55	45.45	45.84	-0.27	-0.38
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.96	4.54	55.00	54.32	0.30	0.39
Stetson	ASun	3.06	4.54	33.33	32.75	-1.02	-1.57
Miami FL	ACC	2.37	1.90	63.16	58.59	0.62	0.33
Maryland	ACC	2.33	1.85	57.14	49.12	0.33	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	2.33	1.85	55.00	47.74	0.23	-0.08
Toledo	MAC	2.32	1.85	40.00	42.26	-0.46	-0.29
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.33	1.82	36.84	42.30	-0.61	-0.28
Longwood	ind	2.33	1.82	31.58	28.92	-0.86	-0.77
Nebraska	B10	2.33	1.82	50.00	44.78	0.00	-0.19
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.27	1.82	35.00	35.64	-0.68	-0.52
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.27	1.79	76.19	72.50	1.19	0.80
Maine	AE	2.27	1.79	52.63	51.64	0.12	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.20	0.22	72.73	71.71	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.26	0.22	60.87	59.76	0.06	0.04
Troy	SB	0.16	0.19	28.57	30.17	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.20	0.18	38.10	42.78	-0.05	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.18	82.61	77.63	0.13	0.10
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.20	0.18	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.21	0.18	19.05	24.61	-0.13	-0.09
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.18	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.21	0.18	69.57	71.51	0.08	0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.21	0.18	86.96	85.46	0.15	0.13
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.18	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.17	0.16	35.00	39.29	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.15	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.21	0.15	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.16	0.15	19.05	25.52	-0.10	-0.08
Illinois	B10	0.16	0.15	72.73	64.43	0.07	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.25	0.15	27.27	35.02	-0.11	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.26	0.15	60.87	59.05	0.06	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.20	0.15	68.18	69.10	0.07	0.06
Samford	SC	0.25	0.15	33.33	35.26	-0.08	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.15	86.36	83.09	0.07	0.10
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.20	0.15	39.13	42.12	-0.04	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.15	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.13	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.13	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.16	0.13	10.00	14.93	-0.12	-0.09
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.12	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.12	19.05	22.37	-0.06	-0.07
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.12	34.78	38.42	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.16	0.12	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.19	0.12	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.12	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.21	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.10	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.12	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.12	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.08
Missouri	B12	0.19	0.12	91.30	87.18	0.16	0.09
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.10	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.17	0.10	13.64	16.35	-0.12	-0.07
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.10	35.00	38.58	-0.03	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.11	0.10	60.00	60.42	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.16	0.09	17.39	19.81	-0.10	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.09	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.09	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.09	59.09	57.93	0.03	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.09	9.52	13.19	-0.12	-0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.15	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.05	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.09	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.17	0.09	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.09	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.09	70.83	64.42	0.05	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.09	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.06	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.09	73.91	75.49	0.07	0.05
Binghamton	AE	0.11	0.07	0.00	4.02	-0.11	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.11	0.07	27.27	23.80	-0.05	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.07	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.07	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.07	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.07	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.06	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.06	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.04	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.06	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.11	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.05	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.10	0.06	26.09	28.60	-0.05	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.11	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.08	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.06	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.00	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.00	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.00	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.00	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.00	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02