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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:209.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:278
Current SOS:278
Current Record:16-13
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13209.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ohio (81.0)MACA85-75L0%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH104-101W100%0.0
11-22North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH73-60W100%0.0
11-23Bowling Green (200.0)MACH77-82L0%0.0
11-27Florida (55.0)SECA70-50L0%0.0
12-2Texas A&M (18.0)SECA75-65L0%0.0
12-6FIU (270.0)CUSAA76-84W100%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (171.0)A10H77-76W100%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH52-56L0%0.0
12-22Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH63-66L0%0.0
12-28South Dakota (197.0)SumA89-81L0%0.0
12-31La Salle (232.0)A10H86-77W100%0.0
1-9Stetson (303.0)ASunH82-53W100%0.0
1-14NJIT (207.0)ASunH82-78W100%0.0
1-16USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH85-56W100%0.0
1-21Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA74-79W100%0.0
1-24Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA91-75L0%0.0
1-27Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH69-78L0%0.0
1-30North Florida (161.0)ASunA82-76L0%0.0
2-1Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA83-80L0%0.0
2-6North Florida (161.0)ASunH81-65W100%0.0
2-11USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA64-71W100%0.0
2-13NJIT (207.0)ASunA68-59L0%0.0
2-18Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH82-67W100%0.0
2-20Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH68-63W100%0.0
2-25Stetson (303.0)ASunA80-73L0%0.0
3-1Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH74-64W100%0.0
3-3North Florida (161.0)ASunA56-89W100%0.0
3-6Stetson (303.0)ASunH80-78W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.5926.5953.7853.782.012.01
StetsonASun6.146.1425.9325.93-2.96-2.96
North FloridaASun6.096.0966.6766.672.032.03
Kennesaw St.ASun5.995.9934.6234.62-1.84-1.84
LipscombASun4.484.4831.0331.03-1.70-1.70
USC UpstateASun4.434.4326.9226.92-2.05-2.05
NJITASun4.424.4253.5753.570.320.32
JacksonvilleASun4.404.4038.4638.46-1.02-1.02
FIUCUSA1.931.9337.9337.93-0.46-0.46
Bowling GreenMAC1.841.8441.9441.94-0.30-0.30
Texas A&MSEC1.841.8475.7675.760.950.95
FloridaSEC1.841.8456.2556.250.230.23
MassachusettsA101.781.7845.1645.16-0.17-0.17
South Dakota St.Sum1.781.7876.6776.670.950.95
Youngstown St.Horz1.781.7831.0331.03-0.68-0.68
North DakotaBSky1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
La SalleA101.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
OhioMAC1.781.7863.3363.330.470.47
Louisiana TechCUSA1.751.7568.9768.970.660.66
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.3564.2964.290.100.10
LSUSEC0.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
IPFWSum0.290.2970.9770.970.120.12
Florida A&MMEAC0.270.2722.2222.22-0.15-0.15
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
NavyPat0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
IUPUISum0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.200.2076.4776.470.110.11
BelmontOVC0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
DenverSum0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
ArkansasSEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.180.1874.1974.190.080.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
DaytonA100.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.170.1770.5970.590.070.07
RichmondA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
Weber St.BSky0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Rhode IslandA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
BuffaloMAC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
MercerSC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0962.8662.860.020.02
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01