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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:85.0
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:243
Current Record:23-7
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:86
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-785.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida (10.0)SECN80-59L0%0.0
11-16UT Arlington (45.0)SBH85-72W100%0.0
11-18Baylor (11.0)B12A81-72L0%0.0
11-20Michigan St. (51.0)B10A78-77L0%0.0
11-23Binghamton (311.0)AEH69-53W100%0.0
11-25Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH68-67W100%0.0
12-4Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA82-85W100%0.0
12-9Siena (122.0)MAACH73-69W100%0.0
12-11FIU (338.0)CUSAH82-63W100%0.0
12-13Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH59-72L0%0.0
12-17La Salle (133.0)A10A84-80L0%0.0
12-20Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA78-79W100%0.0
12-28Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAA62-75W100%0.0
1-7Stetson (328.0)ASunA88-89W100%0.0
1-12Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA75-78W100%0.0
1-14Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA80-84W100%0.0
1-19USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH60-62L0%0.0
1-21NJIT (290.0)ASunH84-71W100%0.0
1-25North Florida (217.0)ASunA82-86W100%0.0
1-28Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH78-56W100%0.0
1-30North Florida (217.0)ASunH74-59W100%0.0
2-4Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA57-67W100%0.0
2-9Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH60-65L0%0.0
2-11Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH75-63W100%0.0
2-16NJIT (290.0)ASunA73-80W100%0.0
2-18USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA89-97W100%0.0
2-23Stetson (328.0)ASunH80-70W100%0.0
2-27Stetson (328.0)ASunH87-57W100%0.0
3-2Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH74-62W100%0.0
3-5North Florida (217.0)ASunH77-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.6326.6375.6975.6913.6913.69
North FloridaASun5.975.9740.7440.74-1.11-1.11
Kennesaw St.ASun5.865.8644.4444.44-0.65-0.65
StetsonASun5.835.8330.7730.77-2.24-2.24
LipscombASun4.334.3357.1457.140.620.62
JacksonvilleASun4.304.3050.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun4.274.2746.1546.15-0.33-0.33
NJITASun4.244.2433.3333.33-1.41-1.41
Georgia SouthernSB3.393.3953.5753.570.240.24
FIUCUSA2.072.0717.8617.86-1.33-1.33
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
FloridaSEC1.751.7574.1974.190.850.85
Louisiana TechCUSA1.731.7370.0070.000.690.69
UT ArlingtonSB1.721.7276.6776.670.920.92
BinghamtonAE1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
Long Beach St.BW1.701.7041.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Michigan St.B101.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
BaylorB121.691.6976.6776.670.900.90
La SalleA101.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
SienaMAAC1.671.6751.5251.520.050.05
South AlabamaSB0.340.3440.0040.00-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.2817.8617.86-0.18-0.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.2326.6726.67-0.11-0.11
TroySB0.220.2258.8258.820.040.04
MinnesotaB100.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
Georgia St.SB0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
IowaB100.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
MercerSC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Texas St.SB0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Stony BrookAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.143.333.33-0.13-0.13
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
RadfordBSth0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Miami FLACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
FordhamA100.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
RiderMAAC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
IonaMAAC0.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
DavidsonA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
RiceCUSA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Little RockSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
TexasB120.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
OklahomaB120.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01