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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:217.2
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:216
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:14-12
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:9-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-11188.514.77%
14-12207.539.29%
13-13227.332.55%
12-14249.211.28%
11-15269.61.99%
10-16288.40.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Ohio (95.8)MACA85-75L0%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (258.9)HorzH104-101W100%0.0
11-22North Dakota (210.8)BSkyH73-60W100%0.0
11-23Bowling Green (198.5)MACH77-82L0%0.0
11-27Florida (23.6)SECA70-50L0%0.0
12-2Texas A&M (27.5)SECA75-65L0%0.0
12-6FIU (233.7)CUSAA76-84W100%0.0
12-13Massachusetts (195.2)A10H77-76W100%0.0
12-19South Dakota St. (46.0)SumH52-56L0%0.0
12-22Louisiana Tech (129.7)CUSAH63-66L0%0.0
12-28South Dakota (192.1)SumA89-81L0%0.0
12-31La Salle (260.5)A10H86-77W100%0.0
1-9Stetson (303.6)ASunH82-53W100%0.0
1-14NJIT (186.2)ASunH82-78W100%0.0
1-16USC Upstate (326.3)ASunH85-56W100%0.0
1-21Kennesaw St. (292.4)ASunA74-79W100%0.0
1-24Lipscomb (271.7)ASunA91-75L0%0.0
1-27Jacksonville (243.0)ASunH69-78L0%0.0
1-30North Florida (137.1)ASunA82-76L0%0.0
2-1Jacksonville (243.0)ASunA83-80L0%0.0
2-6North Florida (137.1)ASunH81-65W100%0.0
2-11USC Upstate (326.3)ASunA0-077%8.1
2-13NJIT (186.2)ASunA0-040%-2.7
2-18Lipscomb (271.7)ASunH0-077%8.2
2-20Kennesaw St. (292.4)ASunH0-086%11.8
2-25Stetson (303.6)ASunA0-072%6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.3326.3743.6850.57-3.330.30
North FloridaASun5.244.7166.6768.441.751.74
StetsonASun3.064.7025.0028.83-1.53-1.99
JacksonvilleASun5.234.7045.0045.84-0.52-0.39
USC UpstateASun2.954.7023.8124.19-1.55-2.43
LipscombASun2.914.6821.7426.91-1.64-2.16
NJITASun2.914.6856.5257.140.380.67
Kennesaw St.ASun2.914.6822.7324.67-1.59-2.37
FIUCUSA2.602.1042.8646.91-0.37-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC2.552.0647.6243.88-0.12-0.25
FloridaSEC2.542.0365.2265.200.770.62
Texas A&MSEC2.482.0373.9174.501.190.99
Youngstown St.Horz2.501.9931.8233.50-0.91-0.66
MassachusettsA102.441.9942.8640.61-0.35-0.37
South DakotaSum2.431.9939.1339.14-0.53-0.43
North DakotaBSky2.491.9950.0051.900.000.08
OhioMAC2.441.9961.9060.100.580.40
South Dakota St.Sum2.431.9972.7373.771.100.95
La SalleA102.441.9920.0021.09-1.46-1.15
Louisiana TechCUSA2.441.9670.0067.630.970.69
Tennessee St.OVC0.270.3168.1865.160.100.09
IPFWSum0.320.2870.8368.590.130.10
LSUSEC0.250.2662.5059.050.060.05
NavyPat0.270.2464.0064.480.070.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.320.2425.0025.09-0.16-0.12
Kent St.MAC0.260.2365.2260.580.080.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.2131.8236.14-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.200.2040.0039.76-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.150.2068.0066.660.050.07
DenverSum0.200.2054.1751.780.020.01
AkronMAC0.160.2082.6181.130.100.12
Miami OHMAC0.160.2034.7833.05-0.05-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1763.6462.150.040.04
West VirginiaB120.160.1779.1778.060.090.10
UABCUSA0.110.1782.6179.390.070.10
Western MichiganMAC0.220.1731.8232.69-0.08-0.06
DaytonA100.270.1786.9682.150.200.11
RichmondA100.220.1756.5255.730.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1739.1341.11-0.04-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.1721.7422.74-0.12-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1759.0959.650.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.1760.0057.640.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1722.7327.18-0.09-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.1683.3381.320.110.10
ArkansasSEC0.250.1650.0053.000.000.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1675.0072.630.050.07
MississippiSEC0.210.1662.5058.920.050.03
Weber St.BSky0.230.1465.0069.230.070.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1441.6739.46-0.02-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1440.0038.97-0.02-0.03
The CitadelSC0.110.1431.8230.05-0.04-0.06
UMKCWAC0.160.1428.5732.73-0.07-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1420.0019.76-0.09-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.160.1479.1776.070.090.07
Florida St.ACC0.210.1469.5764.900.080.04
Saint LouisA100.160.1434.7832.42-0.05-0.05
VCUA100.160.1473.9174.060.080.06
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1340.0042.85-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1386.9686.650.070.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1340.0043.42-0.03-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.200.1358.3358.480.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1337.5043.37-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1327.7829.16-0.05-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1371.4369.430.050.05
FordhamA100.110.1352.3850.750.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.170.1358.3357.220.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1356.5257.000.000.02
UTSACUSA0.110.1313.6413.63-0.08-0.10
Wright St.Horz0.160.1356.5257.020.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.1352.1751.940.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1372.7370.400.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.100.1360.8755.970.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1386.9680.370.070.08
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1258.3359.960.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1152.3854.070.010.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1058.3358.370.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1050.0044.680.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1029.1733.11-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.110.1052.1750.420.000.00
IllinoisB100.150.1045.8344.11-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.160.1058.3356.290.030.01
LafayettePat0.110.1020.8321.68-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.100.1054.1751.670.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.160.1060.8757.160.040.01
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1047.6249.35-0.01-0.00
DetroitHorz0.160.1047.6245.85-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1050.0051.190.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.1033.3333.07-0.02-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.1028.5729.66-0.02-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1031.5832.01-0.06-0.04
ToledoMAC0.160.1060.8762.080.030.02
UMBCAE0.100.1024.0026.33-0.05-0.05
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1056.0056.490.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1072.0069.150.050.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0959.0955.220.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0943.4843.76-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0933.3330.27-0.02-0.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0754.5554.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0745.0046.11-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0757.8962.320.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0740.9143.75-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0728.5727.00-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0726.0929.18-0.05-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0754.5552.540.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0724.0024.17-0.06-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.0721.7424.20-0.06-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0764.0057.920.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0725.0026.87-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.0752.1754.140.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.0727.2731.06-0.05-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0765.0063.440.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0742.1145.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.100.0725.0026.74-0.05-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0779.1774.060.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0769.5769.040.020.03
SamfordSC0.050.0741.6742.61-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0714.2915.45-0.07-0.05
MinnesotaB100.100.0725.0027.23-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.110.0761.9058.060.030.01
DuquesneA100.060.0760.8756.360.010.01
George MasonA100.000.0733.3333.70-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0775.0071.920.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0776.0076.320.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.0734.7840.89-0.03-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0766.6765.220.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0754.5556.010.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.075.007.22-0.05-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.0750.0054.190.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0745.8346.63-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0733.3335.05-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0768.0067.990.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0756.5262.820.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0772.2274.680.020.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0730.4331.21-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0750.0049.490.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0725.0023.45-0.02-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0781.8282.620.030.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0765.2264.370.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0734.7835.64-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.100.0781.8283.030.070.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0745.4546.21-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0773.6874.680.020.03
Miami FLACC0.110.0782.6177.520.070.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.0747.8348.87-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0727.7834.45-0.05-0.02
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.960.060.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0412.0011.96-0.05-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0410.0013.14-0.05-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0456.0055.420.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0431.5837.72-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0415.0015.32-0.04-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0462.5056.960.020.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0313.6418.18-0.04-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0365.2264.230.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
PennIvy0.060.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0363.6459.710.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.300.010.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0365.2259.750.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
VillanovaBE0.060.0387.5086.870.040.03
AmericanPat0.050.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.09-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.710.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0331.8230.15-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.19-0.03-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0315.0018.11-0.04-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0357.8961.760.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0358.3359.360.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.57-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.20-0.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.820.020.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0360.0055.540.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.039.0917.14-0.05-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.310.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0366.6764.730.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.090.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0368.1871.310.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.040.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.480.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.880.030.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8368.000.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.32-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.04-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.210.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.310.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.190.020.01
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00