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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:97.7
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:198
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:19-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:76



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-022.00.01%
24-129.00.14%
23-234.90.85%
22-346.03.10%
21-456.58.69%
20-570.016.03%
19-685.821.51%
18-7103.020.77%
17-8122.314.70%
16-9142.99.04%
15-10165.43.49%
14-11189.01.22%
13-12214.70.38%
12-13243.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UC Santa Barbara (136.8)BWH81-75W100%0.0
11-19Ohio (114.5)MACH79-62W100%0.0
11-24Marist (271.2)MAACN43-58W100%0.0
11-30South Dakota St. (175.7)SumN0-066%4.9
12-7Massachusetts (53.0)A10N0-041%-2.8
12-14FIU (205.4)CUSAH0-083%11.3
12-19Furman (314.2)SCH0-096%21.0
12-23Iona (63.9)MAACA0-031%-5.8
12-28Xavier (9.8)BEA0-010%-15.4
12-30Pittsburgh (105.2)ACCA0-031%-6.1
1-5UC Santa Barbara (136.8)BWA0-043%-2.2
1-10Stetson (306.9)ASunH0-092%17.2
1-14North Florida (227.1)ASunA0-065%4.7
1-17Jacksonville (332.3)ASunH0-096%21.2
1-22USC Upstate (238.4)ASunA0-065%4.5
1-24Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunA0-087%13.6
1-29Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH0-085%12.4
1-31Northern Kentucky (259.1)ASunH0-089%14.8
2-7Stetson (306.9)ASunA0-080%10.0
2-12Northern Kentucky (259.1)ASunA0-074%7.6
2-14Lipscomb (239.9)ASunA0-067%5.2
2-19Kennesaw St. (323.5)ASunH0-096%20.7
2-21USC Upstate (238.4)ASunH0-084%11.7
2-25North Florida (227.1)ASunH0-084%11.8
2-28Jacksonville (332.3)ASunA0-088%14.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun36.1126.49100.0077.2136.1114.42
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.9220.0027.07-0.00-2.26
StetsonASun0.004.910.0034.82-0.00-1.49
USC UpstateASun0.004.9166.6755.860.000.58
JacksonvilleASun0.004.880.0024.83-0.00-2.46
North FloridaASun0.004.880.0046.54-0.00-0.34
Northern KentuckyASun0.004.8833.3341.48-0.00-0.83
LipscombASun0.004.870.0044.89-0.00-0.50
UC Santa BarbaraBW16.674.000.0058.07-16.670.65
FIUCUSA0.002.2250.0044.510.00-0.24
IonaMAAC0.002.1075.0074.100.001.01
MaristMAAC16.672.060.0035.06-16.67-0.62
MassachusettsA100.002.0380.0062.020.000.49
FurmanSC0.002.0033.3324.74-0.00-1.01
OhioMAC16.672.00100.0057.7716.670.31
PittsburghACC0.002.0066.6750.930.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.002.0033.3350.60-0.000.02
XavierBE0.002.00100.0079.890.001.20
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.400.0021.49-0.00-0.23
ChattanoogaSC0.000.290.0046.88-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2633.3334.36-0.00-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.000.2525.0042.98-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.2540.0039.62-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.230.0033.26-0.00-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2366.6745.370.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.220.0022.66-0.00-0.12
IdahoBSky0.000.2250.0046.080.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2225.0039.30-0.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.2266.6760.760.000.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.210.0036.18-0.00-0.06
ManhattanMAAC0.000.2025.0052.27-0.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1975.0071.990.000.08
UC DavisBW0.000.19100.0043.480.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1960.0050.930.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1925.0052.91-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1733.3324.20-0.00-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1766.6756.820.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1733.3360.10-0.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1550.0034.540.00-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1540.0043.71-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.1533.3367.83-0.000.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0029.28-0.00-0.06
NorthwesternB100.000.15100.0041.460.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.15100.0047.530.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0027.43-0.00-0.07
Appalachian St.SB4.170.1550.0026.270.00-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.15100.0047.400.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1475.0066.130.000.05
MercerSC0.000.1433.3352.75-0.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1440.0038.36-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1450.0043.250.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.14100.0059.940.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0065.950.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1440.0038.53-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1466.6753.410.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1440.0033.57-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1450.0054.950.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1466.6766.090.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1450.0047.540.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.140.0028.50-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0043.080.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.1175.0050.400.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1133.3335.09-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1150.0065.370.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1166.6759.480.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.11100.0071.240.000.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1125.0046.39-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1133.3337.04-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1175.0058.190.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1150.0050.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.11100.0051.910.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.1166.6757.340.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1140.0059.10-0.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.1150.0053.850.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0076.960.000.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0031.92-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1150.0034.020.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.11100.0060.870.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.1033.3341.47-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.10100.0081.370.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.10100.0071.170.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1050.0037.880.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0866.6756.740.000.01
KansasB124.170.0866.6758.821.390.01
OregonP120.000.0875.0068.720.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0866.6745.890.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0825.0040.14-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0825.0044.61-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0850.0069.360.000.03
TexasB120.000.08100.0079.170.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.08100.0050.840.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0833.3358.52-0.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0833.3328.67-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0775.0069.590.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0058.710.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.170.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.950.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0050.790.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0775.0074.330.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.030.000.02
MarylandB100.000.07100.0066.670.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0066.640.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0766.6732.480.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0720.0053.69-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6752.810.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.070.0050.64-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0775.0062.270.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0740.0050.01-0.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0032.210.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.070.0026.64-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.12-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.07100.0070.420.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0733.3354.64-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0084.620.000.05
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0066.880.000.03
DukeACC0.000.07100.0085.500.000.05
DenverSum0.000.0766.6764.880.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0766.6768.660.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0775.0066.800.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0725.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0033.20-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0766.6746.410.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3348.25-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.070.0036.85-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6751.260.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0733.3333.50-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6774.460.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0068.180.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.130.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0036.280.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0061.740.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.880.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0035.180.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0750.0045.420.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0065.090.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0051.940.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0733.3342.50-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.070.0038.08-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0073.380.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0733.3343.21-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0766.6757.060.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0054.620.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0766.6738.720.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0780.0072.950.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0760.0045.520.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0024.54-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.70-0.00-0.04
La SalleA100.000.06100.0054.280.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0059.320.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0420.0029.26-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0433.3346.31-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0440.0053.80-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.04100.0063.550.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0466.6762.260.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.04100.0043.380.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.04100.0057.580.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0466.6747.180.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0466.6753.220.000.00
ArmyPat2.780.04100.0066.402.780.01
BucknellPat2.780.0420.0035.82-1.67-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0420.0035.87-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.040.0028.35-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.040.0043.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.040.0024.67-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0466.6772.280.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0475.0060.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0058.760.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0051.710.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0040.470.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0064.010.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.960.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.030.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3368.63-0.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0070.800.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0325.0057.73-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0029.78-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.980.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.72-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0065.66-0.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.270.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.390.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.230.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0366.6733.810.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0074.590.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6768.540.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0072.970.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.62-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.730.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0375.0047.380.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.290.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0075.310.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.030.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0067.590.000.01