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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:125.4
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:243
Current Record:13-7
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-798.614.65%
19-8114.133.70%
18-9130.831.69%
17-10150.515.63%
16-11172.03.88%
15-12194.20.43%
14-13218.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UC Santa Barbara (128.8)BWH81-75W100%0.0
11-19Ohio (213.9)MACH79-62W100%0.0
11-24Marist (329.8)MAACN58-43W100%0.0
11-25San Francisco (195.2)WCCN62-47W100%0.0
11-26Green Bay (59.1)HorzN45-59L0%0.0
11-30South Dakota St. (85.9)SumN58-71W100%0.0
12-7Massachusetts (78.8)A10N75-84W100%0.0
12-14FIU (197.9)CUSAH63-69L0%0.0
12-19Furman (299.4)SCH83-78W100%0.0
12-23Iona (63.5)MAACA86-67L0%0.0
12-28Xavier (28.3)BEA71-57L0%0.0
12-30Pittsburgh (95.9)ACCA71-54L0%0.0
1-5UC Santa Barbara (128.8)BWA63-50L0%0.0
1-10Stetson (332.4)ASunH72-50W100%0.0
1-14North Florida (184.0)ASunA80-64L0%0.0
1-17Jacksonville (344.8)ASunH79-50W100%0.0
1-22USC Upstate (202.9)ASunA68-71W100%0.0
1-24Kennesaw St. (320.5)ASunA48-54W100%0.0
1-29Lipscomb (278.8)ASunH78-62W100%0.0
1-31Northern Kentucky (246.8)ASunH74-64W100%0.0
2-7Stetson (332.4)ASunA0-083%10.3
2-12Northern Kentucky (246.8)ASunA0-065%4.2
2-14Lipscomb (278.8)ASunA0-069%5.5
2-19Kennesaw St. (320.5)ASunH0-096%18.7
2-21USC Upstate (202.9)ASunH0-068%5.0
2-25North Florida (184.0)ASunH0-065%4.3
2-28Jacksonville (344.8)ASunA0-091%14.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.3626.4367.0770.579.0010.87
Kennesaw St.ASun2.954.5628.5729.30-1.26-1.89
StetsonASun2.944.5522.2225.99-1.63-2.18
USC UpstateASun2.944.5568.4270.421.081.86
North FloridaASun2.874.5250.0057.020.000.63
JacksonvilleASun2.874.5220.0019.84-1.72-2.72
Northern KentuckyASun2.874.5136.8441.73-0.76-0.75
LipscombASun2.874.5138.8941.41-0.64-0.77
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.003.7041.1849.81-0.88-0.01
FIUCUSA2.692.0541.1843.10-0.47-0.28
IonaMAAC2.561.9471.4374.441.100.95
MaristMAAC2.501.9115.0017.29-1.75-1.25
MassachusettsA102.561.8860.0057.760.510.29
FurmanSC2.501.8527.7830.54-1.11-0.72
Green BayHorz2.501.8573.6874.611.180.91
OhioMAC2.501.8538.8936.73-0.56-0.49
PittsburghACC2.501.8560.0053.530.500.13
San FranciscoWCC2.501.8538.1041.83-0.60-0.30
South Dakota St.Sum2.501.8571.4372.691.070.84
XavierBE2.501.8561.9062.830.600.48
Florida A&MMEAC0.380.370.003.52-0.38-0.34
ChattanoogaSC0.250.2761.9060.960.060.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.260.2331.5831.34-0.10-0.09
SamfordSC0.310.2339.1337.63-0.07-0.06
HawaiiBW0.180.2261.9057.820.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.240.2252.3845.640.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.190.2125.0024.39-0.10-0.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.2119.0525.57-0.12-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.2038.1040.95-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.240.2035.2943.62-0.07-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.2025.0031.77-0.06-0.07
IPFWSum0.180.2042.1144.33-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.2033.3333.58-0.06-0.07
MercerSC0.250.2047.6252.00-0.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.250.1947.6253.91-0.010.02
ManhattanMAAC0.180.1850.0048.020.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.200.1766.6764.950.070.05
Wright St.Horz0.190.1745.0046.64-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1737.5041.05-0.05-0.03
UC DavisBW0.200.1777.7869.520.110.07
UC IrvineBW0.190.1757.8960.710.030.04
Cal PolyBW0.190.1644.4448.13-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.180.1642.8641.77-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.300.1650.0047.830.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1560.0063.450.050.04
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1515.0019.83-0.16-0.09
SienaMAAC0.180.1540.0037.25-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.130.1440.0039.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1414.2914.78-0.09-0.10
NorthwesternB100.120.1347.6242.03-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1345.0037.75-0.01-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.190.1342.1138.99-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.1322.7325.26-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.130.1342.1137.78-0.02-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1363.1661.830.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1352.3855.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1370.0064.720.050.04
ButlerBE0.110.1272.7371.820.050.05
SyracuseACC0.060.1266.6758.780.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.180.1257.8953.420.030.01
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1254.5555.020.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1255.0056.020.020.01
RiderMAAC0.170.1263.6464.840.050.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1243.4847.59-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.180.1228.5728.73-0.08-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.180.1245.0040.95-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.120.1052.3850.450.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1036.3643.14-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.120.1033.3338.47-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.130.1090.4888.270.100.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1075.0072.790.070.05
MissouriSEC0.120.1030.0028.64-0.05-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1072.2273.710.050.05
NebraskaB100.130.1057.1448.260.02-0.00
ToledoMAC0.130.1061.9060.170.030.02
LibertyBSth0.130.1010.5314.92-0.10-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1052.6353.920.010.01
VMISC0.130.1030.0034.92-0.05-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1090.9187.360.100.07
Georgia TechACC0.120.1047.6245.06-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.120.1076.1975.610.060.05
DavidsonA100.130.1072.2273.480.060.05
BuffaloMAC0.120.1070.0068.150.050.04
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1071.4366.420.080.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1060.0059.190.020.02
IUPUISum0.110.1036.3638.81-0.03-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1060.8757.630.030.01
OaklandHorz0.120.1040.0043.84-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1015.7921.13-0.08-0.06
BYUWCC0.170.0968.1868.210.060.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.0985.7180.350.090.06
DePaulBE0.180.0947.8342.09-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0945.0042.78-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.0972.7364.260.050.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0744.4443.51-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0766.6764.990.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0750.0051.140.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0757.8958.650.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0738.1038.64-0.01-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0781.8276.540.040.04
MemphisAmer0.060.0761.9061.480.010.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0752.3861.790.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0750.0054.030.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0757.8960.230.010.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.7831.47-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0715.0019.64-0.05-0.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0785.7175.730.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0742.8645.64-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0780.0073.740.040.03
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0785.7182.060.090.04
DenverSum0.110.0740.9144.93-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0740.9140.80-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.0766.6769.040.040.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0714.2917.22-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.060.0761.9062.540.010.02
KansasB120.130.0785.7177.830.090.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0720.0024.85-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.3853.270.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0733.3332.33-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0735.0037.17-0.03-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0750.0051.680.000.00
OregonP120.130.0766.6761.490.040.02
Oregon St.P120.130.0765.0059.830.040.01
PurdueB100.060.0763.6460.040.020.01
SeattleWAC0.130.0744.4447.73-0.01-0.00
SMUAmer0.130.0780.9577.890.080.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0752.6353.480.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0740.9142.86-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0747.6251.78-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0780.9579.380.040.04
VermontAE0.130.0752.3857.770.010.01
Washington St.P120.130.0747.6239.12-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0735.2930.55-0.02-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0768.4266.670.030.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0757.1456.520.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0760.8764.330.010.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0723.8134.41-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0731.8229.88-0.02-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0728.5731.94-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.130.0685.7184.620.090.04
AkronMAC0.000.0670.0066.170.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0672.2268.690.030.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0657.1447.870.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0675.0072.090.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0658.8258.130.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0695.4594.860.050.06
IllinoisB100.060.0663.6460.730.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0627.2727.36-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0635.0032.55-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.060.0635.0030.78-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0661.9060.760.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0049.030.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0676.1971.260.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0642.8640.14-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0614.2917.14-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0670.0065.890.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0638.8934.91-0.01-0.02
Saint LouisA100.120.0640.0035.39-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0666.6769.240.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0672.7368.500.030.02
CreightonBE0.000.0643.4838.74-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0631.5828.68-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0623.5324.33-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.120.0631.5830.42-0.04-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.0671.4367.480.050.02
La SalleA100.060.0657.1455.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0647.6243.52-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.120.0686.9682.950.090.04
Rhode IslandA100.060.0673.6869.970.030.02
Seton HallBE0.110.0671.4365.190.050.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0665.0059.420.000.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0690.4885.170.050.04
Wake ForestACC0.060.0645.4539.76-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0326.0929.52-0.03-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0359.0955.340.010.00
TCUB120.070.0366.6758.520.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0335.0037.26-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0330.0038.13-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0342.8649.26-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0310.0014.17-0.05-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0323.8124.55-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0333.3331.17-0.02-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0347.6248.60-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0315.0021.32-0.04-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0338.1038.01-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0376.1974.490.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0327.7832.64-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0380.9580.110.040.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0323.5325.88-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0322.2219.97-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.060.0378.9580.300.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0355.0055.140.010.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0344.4443.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0331.8237.46-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0335.7133.63-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0350.0054.040.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0338.8936.88-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0350.0046.310.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0331.8234.59-0.02-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0355.0053.850.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0357.8955.720.000.00
ArmyPat0.060.0365.0060.170.020.01
BucknellPat0.060.0350.0050.450.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0340.0037.61-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0335.2934.26-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0376.1971.460.030.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0345.0037.85-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0050.410.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0375.0073.880.000.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0361.9054.070.010.00
DaytonA100.060.0380.0077.350.040.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0342.1147.26-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0335.0034.77-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0368.7569.630.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0338.8939.92-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0372.7366.680.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0347.6244.77-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0354.5546.520.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0376.1967.840.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0380.9581.980.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0377.2774.970.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0365.2265.290.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0345.0049.35-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1460.410.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0376.1976.490.030.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0383.3384.640.040.02
VCUA100.000.0380.9579.010.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0395.0091.130.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0342.8636.75-0.01-0.01