live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:48
Current Record:29-5
Expected Record:29-5
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:7
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-512.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH82-55W100%0.0
11-17Kansas (1.0)B12N79-73W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH92-46W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH89-65W100%0.0
11-26Boston College (250.0)ACCN99-68W100%0.0
11-27Boise St. (101.0)MWCN77-67W100%0.0
11-29Providence (40.0)BEN64-77W100%0.0
12-2Louisville (17.0)ACCH71-67W100%0.0
12-5Binghamton (299.0)AEH76-33W100%0.0
12-9Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH78-35W100%0.0
12-12Florida (55.0)SECH58-52W100%0.0
12-19Northeastern (109.0)CAAA58-78W100%0.0
12-22Oakland (116.0)HorzN93-99W100%0.0
12-29Iowa (28.0)B10A83-70L0%0.0
1-2Minnesota (257.0)B10A61-69W100%0.0
1-7Illinois (149.0)B10H79-54W100%0.0
1-10Penn St. (125.0)B10A65-92W100%0.0
1-14Iowa (28.0)B10H59-76L0%0.0
1-17Wisconsin (43.0)B10A77-76L0%0.0
1-20Nebraska (165.0)B10H71-72L0%0.0
1-23Maryland (14.0)B10H74-65W100%0.0
1-28Northwestern (115.0)B10A45-76W100%0.0
1-31Rutgers (294.0)B10H96-62W100%0.0
2-6Michigan (56.0)B10A73-89W100%0.0
2-9Purdue (15.0)B10A82-81L0%0.0
2-14Indiana (24.0)B10H88-69W100%0.0
2-18Wisconsin (43.0)B10H69-57W100%0.0
2-23Ohio St. (74.0)B10A62-81W100%0.0
2-28Penn St. (125.0)B10H88-57W100%0.0
3-2Rutgers (294.0)B10A66-97W100%0.0
3-5Ohio St. (74.0)B10H91-76W100%0.0
3-11Ohio St. (74.0)B10N81-54W100%0.0
3-12Maryland (14.0)B10N64-61W100%0.0
3-13Purdue (15.0)B10N66-62W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1926.1985.0685.0618.3718.37
Ohio St.B105.015.0166.6766.671.671.67
PurdueB103.633.6378.1278.122.042.04
MarylandB103.623.6280.0080.002.172.17
Penn St.B103.603.6053.3353.330.240.24
WisconsinB103.533.5363.3363.330.940.94
IowaB103.533.5365.5265.521.091.09
RutgersB103.533.5320.6920.69-2.07-2.07
NebraskaB102.272.2745.4545.45-0.21-0.21
IllinoisB102.272.2745.4545.45-0.21-0.21
MichiganB102.222.2265.6265.620.690.69
NorthwesternB102.152.1564.5264.520.620.62
IndianaB102.112.1180.6580.651.291.29
MinnesotaB102.082.0826.6726.67-0.97-0.97
Eastern MichiganMAC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
OaklandHorz1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
LouisvilleACC1.521.5276.6776.670.810.81
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
ProvidenceBE1.521.5271.8871.880.660.66
FloridaSEC1.511.5159.3859.380.280.28
NortheasternCAA1.491.4954.8454.840.140.14
BinghamtonAE1.491.4927.5927.59-0.67-0.67
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.491.4923.3323.33-0.80-0.80
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.491.4925.0025.00-0.75-0.75
Boise St.MWC1.471.4762.0762.070.350.35
KansasB121.471.4790.6290.621.191.19
Florida St.ACC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
VermontAE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Notre DameACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
VirginiaACC0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
GeorgetownBE0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
UMass LowellAE0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
HowardMEAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
PittsburghACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Iowa St.B120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
SyracuseACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1162.8662.860.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Miami FLACC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
DePaulBE0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ButlerBE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0929.1729.17-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
Texas TechB120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Rhode IslandA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0710.7110.71-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0456.0056.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01