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Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:39.9
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:19
Current SOS:17
Current Record:13-7
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:4-3
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-714.50.23%
22-819.22.84%
21-924.511.51%
20-1030.922.72%
19-1138.327.59%
18-1247.020.64%
17-1358.810.27%
16-1473.23.46%
15-1587.80.64%
14-16102.40.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Navy (263.4)PatA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Duke (8.2)ACCN81-71L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (125.2)MVCH87-52W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (192.4)WCCH79-52W100%0.0
11-27Rider (154.3)MAACN45-77W100%0.0
11-28Marquette (128.6)BEN68-79W100%0.0
11-30Kansas (3.7)B12N56-61L0%0.0
12-3Notre Dame (23.6)ACCA79-78L0%0.0
12-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (304.3)SWACH85-52W100%0.0
12-14Oakland (175.7)HorzH87-61W100%0.0
12-17Eastern Michigan (142.8)MACH66-46W100%0.0
12-20Texas Southern (151.1)SWACH64-71L0%0.0
12-22The Citadel (319.1)SCH82-56W100%0.0
12-30Maryland (21.8)B10H66-68L0%0.0
1-5Indiana (46.3)B10H70-50W100%0.0
1-8Iowa (52.3)B10A61-75W100%0.0
1-11Northwestern (151.4)B10H84-77W100%0.0
1-17Maryland (21.8)B10A75-59L0%0.0
1-21Penn St. (106.4)B10H66-60W100%0.0
1-24Nebraska (109.0)B10A79-77L0%0.0
2-1Michigan (84.9)B10H0-084%10.9
2-7Illinois (74.2)B10H0-073%6.6
2-10Northwestern (151.4)B10A0-072%6.4
2-14Ohio St. (25.7)B10H0-046%-1.1
2-17Michigan (84.9)B10A0-064%4.0
2-22Illinois (74.2)B10A0-049%-0.2
2-26Minnesota (91.8)B10H0-074%7.0
3-1Wisconsin (6.9)B10A0-015%-11.3
3-4Purdue (82.3)B10H0-073%6.8
3-7Indiana (46.3)B10A0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.3826.1060.7160.855.655.66
IllinoisB100.303.9161.9061.730.070.92
NorthwesternB102.623.9152.6345.580.14-0.35
MichiganB100.263.9060.0054.340.050.34
MarylandB105.183.8884.2176.063.552.02
IndianaB102.803.8875.0069.371.401.50
Ohio St.B100.372.3276.1977.330.191.27
WisconsinB100.372.3290.0087.400.301.74
PurdueB100.362.2961.9059.820.090.45
NebraskaB102.622.2957.8947.590.41-0.11
IowaB102.562.2768.4265.350.940.70
Penn St.B102.562.2470.0055.961.020.27
MinnesotaB100.302.2457.1455.340.040.24
Notre DameACC2.631.7890.4885.372.131.26
Texas SouthernSWAC2.621.7742.1155.59-0.410.20
Eastern MichiganMAC2.561.7560.0059.390.510.33
OaklandHorz2.701.7542.1145.24-0.43-0.17
DukeACC2.561.7584.2181.141.751.09
NavyPat2.631.7336.8437.03-0.69-0.45
RiderMAAC2.631.7265.0064.540.790.50
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.561.7230.0037.77-1.03-0.42
MarquetteBE2.501.7252.6345.930.13-0.14
The CitadelSC2.561.7031.2532.95-0.96-0.58
KansasB122.561.6984.2176.781.750.91
Santa ClaraWCC2.561.6950.0042.570.00-0.25
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.501.6761.1160.510.560.35
RutgersB100.360.6847.6238.09-0.02-0.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.2110.0015.23-0.20-0.15
Georgia TechACC0.300.1950.0046.850.00-0.01
VMISC0.330.1831.5837.72-0.12-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1710.5319.81-0.11-0.10
VillanovaBE0.000.1790.0084.550.000.12
SyracuseACC0.060.1666.6758.780.020.03
Iowa St.B120.310.1678.9569.410.180.06
GeorgetownBE0.250.1670.0065.320.100.05
ButlerBE0.120.1671.4370.620.050.07
LouisvilleACC0.120.1685.0078.450.090.09
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.160.006.63-0.12-0.14
UNC GreensboroSC0.210.1516.6722.15-0.14-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1461.1156.280.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.1431.5830.47-0.05-0.06
BucknellPat0.120.1452.3852.420.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.1473.3372.260.090.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1415.7918.45-0.09-0.09
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1490.4885.060.150.10
SMUAmer0.120.1480.0077.750.070.08
PittsburghACC0.180.1460.0052.080.040.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1425.0037.83-0.06-0.03
BaylorB120.130.1373.6869.340.060.05
North CarolinaACC0.120.1380.9576.520.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1325.0031.57-0.06-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.120.1331.5844.71-0.04-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1316.6721.96-0.12-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1236.8441.48-0.04-0.02
FurmanSC0.140.1223.5328.46-0.07-0.05
ToledoMAC0.130.1260.0058.630.030.02
OhioMAC0.200.1238.8935.54-0.04-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.200.1241.1838.38-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.1140.0042.29-0.01-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.190.1152.3845.690.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.1145.0044.02-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.190.1145.0037.54-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.250.1163.1654.180.070.01
AmericanPat0.060.1152.3853.960.000.01
OregonP120.000.1165.0058.730.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.180.1175.0065.020.090.03
St. John'sBE0.130.1163.1658.150.030.02
Texas TechB120.190.1152.3840.070.01-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.1160.0052.320.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1138.8943.44-0.03-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.1142.8638.96-0.01-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.1141.1837.75-0.01-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.1157.1446.820.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.120.1170.0066.060.050.03
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1152.3854.030.010.01
North FloridaASun0.130.1152.6360.390.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.180.1168.4260.940.070.02
VirginiaACC0.180.11100.0094.050.180.09
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.1164.2967.500.020.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1121.0533.09-0.07-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0963.1662.030.020.02
SamfordSC0.070.0936.3636.07-0.02-0.03
WoffordSC0.140.0973.6873.930.060.04
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0931.5834.35-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0935.0034.45-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.210.0973.6866.800.100.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.0925.0025.38-0.06-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0965.0067.660.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.0995.0094.600.120.08
PepperdineWCC0.130.0957.8956.300.020.01
ArizonaP120.060.0990.4887.950.050.07
NJITind0.060.0952.3854.420.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.190.0872.2268.860.080.03
ArmyPat0.130.0866.6762.850.040.02
ColgatePat0.060.0838.1043.87-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0878.9577.900.040.05
LafayettePat0.130.0857.8959.760.020.02
LehighPat0.120.0847.3750.38-0.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0826.3229.12-0.03-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0814.2917.10-0.00-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.060.0845.0046.63-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.120.0868.4263.640.040.02
ValparaisoHorz0.120.0880.0079.170.070.05
CreightonBE0.130.0845.4540.73-0.01-0.02
Arizona St.P120.180.0852.3853.760.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.0820.0027.27-0.11-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0847.3742.62-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.180.0814.2915.28-0.13-0.06
ElonCAA0.130.0845.0042.60-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.120.0830.0029.50-0.05-0.03
FordhamA100.180.0823.5324.53-0.09-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0840.0038.72-0.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0833.3330.18-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0859.0956.180.020.01
OklahomaB120.060.0865.0066.210.020.03
TexasB120.130.0870.0067.330.050.03
WagnerNEC0.180.0827.7832.07-0.08-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.0870.5973.610.050.04
LamarSlnd0.120.0837.5037.57-0.03-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0658.8259.230.010.01
MercerSC0.070.0647.3751.58-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0635.2936.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0628.5727.73-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0620.0021.30-0.04-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.0675.0069.810.070.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0060.080.000.01
PacificWCC0.070.0638.8934.76-0.01-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0652.6349.050.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0678.9573.970.040.03
San DiegoWCC0.070.0645.0045.99-0.01-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0640.0041.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0638.1036.84-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.130.0690.0088.070.110.05
NortheasternCAA0.130.0663.6464.390.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.130.0638.8937.23-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0668.4266.040.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.140.0620.0024.50-0.08-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0638.8942.63-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.0650.0053.490.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0641.1842.32-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0636.8432.80-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0668.4269.340.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0635.2932.46-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.130.0623.5327.86-0.07-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.120.069.5215.05-0.10-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.120.065.5611.57-0.11-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0638.1045.39-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.120.0633.3334.33-0.04-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0652.3843.960.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.0636.8439.84-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0625.0033.04-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0670.0063.300.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.0658.8257.890.020.01
XavierBE0.060.0666.6765.800.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0514.2916.99-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.120.0563.1657.290.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0526.3226.62-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0557.8962.550.010.01
FloridaSEC0.130.0555.0055.300.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0571.4369.460.000.02
HartfordAE0.120.0550.0050.690.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0538.4633.54-0.01-0.02
IonaMAAC0.120.0571.4374.820.050.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0525.0025.63-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0547.3747.26-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0510.0013.95-0.05-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0515.7923.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0572.2277.810.050.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0557.8956.810.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0547.6250.25-0.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0542.1138.13-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0570.0059.680.030.01
TempleAmer0.130.0566.6763.830.040.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.0561.1162.910.030.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0585.0075.810.000.03
WinthropBSth0.120.0547.0651.86-0.010.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0547.3750.37-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0523.0835.92-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0516.6725.24-0.04-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0572.2269.130.030.02
StanfordP120.120.0575.0071.410.060.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.50-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0328.5733.02-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0376.4771.620.040.01
DaytonA100.080.0384.2179.480.050.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0350.0050.450.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0333.3331.74-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.030.001.52-0.07-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0360.0052.530.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.0357.8955.900.010.00
UTSACUSA0.070.0343.7543.15-0.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3738.08-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0363.1666.660.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0354.5556.900.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0055.540.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0340.0037.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.030.003.43-0.06-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0373.6872.660.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0373.6866.480.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0358.3365.200.010.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0347.0649.50-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.8956.480.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0370.5967.510.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0344.4443.32-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0347.3738.48-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0355.0045.900.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0326.3232.93-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0342.1151.50-0.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0361.1160.440.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.0347.0648.27-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0350.0050.950.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0331.5832.45-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0327.7826.35-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0333.3334.41-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0052.160.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0376.1969.640.030.01
IPFWSum0.000.0335.2938.10-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0338.1040.98-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0359.0958.280.000.00
KentuckySEC0.060.03100.0098.450.060.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0316.6723.31-0.04-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0352.6353.060.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0347.3749.83-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0350.0061.990.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0357.1462.500.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0315.0023.69-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.1160.430.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0316.6717.50-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0343.7542.94-0.01-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0340.0045.19-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0347.0654.30-0.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0340.0041.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0355.0055.350.010.00
USCP120.060.0347.3740.18-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.060.0383.3383.740.040.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0352.6353.030.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0326.3236.50-0.03-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0340.0037.06-0.01-0.01