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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:39.1
Current RPI:57
Expected SOS:41
Current SOS:41
Current Record:8-4
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:120



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-49.00.01%
26-510.90.23%
25-614.61.13%
24-717.94.55%
23-822.210.88%
22-927.518.59%
21-1034.421.70%
20-1143.019.14%
19-1254.013.32%
18-1366.46.65%
17-1480.42.63%
16-1594.80.92%
15-16108.80.19%
14-17123.00.04%
13-18139.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Navy (318.0)PatA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Duke (4.7)ACCN81-71L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (131.5)MVCH87-52W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (220.1)WCCH79-52W100%0.0
11-27Rider (187.6)MAACN45-77W100%0.0
11-28Marquette (100.5)BEN68-79W100%0.0
11-30Kansas (6.8)B12N56-61L0%0.0
12-3Notre Dame (51.1)ACCA79-78L0%0.0
12-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (298.3)SWACH85-52W100%0.0
12-14Oakland (230.4)HorzH87-61W100%0.0
12-17Eastern Michigan (108.0)MACH66-46W100%0.0
12-20Texas Southern (172.2)SWACH64-71L0%0.0
12-22The Citadel (314.8)SCH0-099%25.5
12-30Maryland (35.6)B10H0-071%6.6
1-5Indiana (56.9)B10H0-076%8.3
1-8Iowa (60.5)B10A0-045%-1.4
1-11Northwestern (155.0)B10H0-092%16.8
1-17Maryland (35.6)B10A0-043%-1.9
1-21Penn St. (95.4)B10H0-091%15.3
1-24Nebraska (104.2)B10A0-067%5.3
1-27Rutgers (168.6)B10A0-085%12.1
2-1Michigan (149.4)B10H0-090%15.2
2-7Illinois (57.7)B10H0-074%7.4
2-10Northwestern (155.0)B10A0-076%8.2
2-14Ohio St. (14.3)B10H0-044%-1.7
2-17Michigan (149.4)B10A0-072%6.7
2-22Illinois (57.7)B10A0-046%-1.2
2-26Minnesota (39.4)B10H0-068%5.4
3-1Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-012%-13.7
3-4Purdue (76.2)B10H0-075%7.8
3-7Indiana (56.9)B10A0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1027.5226.1061.5465.466.358.07
MichiganB100.263.8350.0041.920.00-0.62
IllinoisB100.003.8175.0066.760.001.28
MarylandB100.003.8191.6774.680.001.88
NorthwesternB100.003.8163.6444.550.00-0.41
IndianaB100.213.8181.8264.810.131.13
WisconsinB100.422.2890.9188.780.341.76
Ohio St.B100.212.2781.8283.020.131.50
RutgersB100.002.2754.5533.200.00-0.76
PurdueB100.172.2766.6760.380.060.47
NebraskaB100.002.2466.6744.440.00-0.25
IowaB100.002.2266.6759.310.000.41
Penn St.B100.002.2291.6756.600.000.29
MinnesotaB100.002.1980.0069.440.000.85
Notre DameACC4.381.7290.9175.823.580.89
Texas SouthernSWAC4.171.7211.1151.69-3.240.06
Eastern MichiganMAC4.361.7085.7168.713.110.63
OaklandHorz4.431.6930.0033.42-1.77-0.56
DukeACC4.171.69100.0086.304.171.23
NavyPat4.341.6722.2223.30-2.41-0.89
RiderMAAC4.611.6754.5554.720.420.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.171.6620.0039.15-2.50-0.36
MarquetteBE4.171.6666.6751.101.390.04
The CitadelSC0.211.6414.2932.73-0.15-0.57
KansasB124.341.6488.8970.123.380.66
Santa ClaraWCC4.341.6450.0038.330.00-0.38
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.171.6185.7161.002.980.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.219.0917.38-0.00-0.14
Georgia TechACC0.380.1880.0053.820.230.01
VMISC0.210.1733.3338.75-0.07-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.160.0013.95-0.17-0.12
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0083.420.000.11
SyracuseACC0.000.1660.0057.780.000.02
Iowa St.B120.190.1690.0065.820.150.05
ButlerBE0.000.1672.7368.580.000.06
GeorgetownBE0.210.1670.0059.760.080.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.16100.0084.350.000.11
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.160.009.03-0.17-0.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.260.1420.0034.83-0.16-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1455.5652.210.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1485.7170.650.140.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.1430.0028.63-0.00-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1490.9183.170.000.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.1418.1820.68-0.17-0.08
BucknellPat0.000.1440.0037.24-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.260.1316.6743.50-0.17-0.02
SMUAmer0.210.1372.7375.960.090.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1360.0043.870.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.190.1370.0052.280.080.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.130.0028.78-0.21-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0034.55-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0026.25-0.00-0.06
BaylorB120.210.1390.0073.480.170.06
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1350.0058.250.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.1372.7374.520.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0089.960.000.10
Western CarolinaSC0.190.1227.2743.96-0.09-0.01
FurmanSC0.210.1122.2231.93-0.12-0.04
ToledoMAC0.190.1163.6461.500.050.03
Florida St.ACC0.170.1154.5541.660.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1130.0029.93-0.00-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1142.8633.60-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.1140.0047.83-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1160.0038.340.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.190.1190.0055.400.150.01
TennesseeSEC0.860.1155.5646.470.10-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.1163.6464.150.000.03
OregonP120.000.1170.0057.400.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.380.1175.0057.450.190.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1133.3343.26-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1188.8965.680.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1045.4537.63-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1028.5761.90-0.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1040.0034.38-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1063.6440.220.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1081.8266.060.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1050.0057.910.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1080.0058.040.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.100.0039.01-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.260.0933.3337.25-0.09-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0940.0049.35-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0938.4634.30-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0977.7875.500.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.260.0977.7858.610.140.01
OhioMAC0.190.0942.8637.93-0.03-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.0945.4543.17-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0870.0068.400.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.210.0890.9190.730.170.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.0866.6755.760.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.440.0866.6773.340.150.04
ArizonaP120.190.08100.0082.820.190.05
CreightonBE0.000.0869.2349.070.00-0.00
NJITind0.210.0841.6743.31-0.03-0.01
AkronMAC0.190.0860.0056.450.040.01
ArmyPat0.210.0880.0067.350.120.03
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0877.7878.340.000.05
LafayettePat0.210.0866.6768.370.070.03
LehighPat0.170.0844.4455.25-0.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0830.0030.65-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0018.31-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.190.0881.8272.960.120.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0860.0057.740.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0881.8263.950.000.02
Arizona St.P120.210.0854.5549.050.02-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.170.0816.6735.21-0.12-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0860.0038.770.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.0820.0027.60-0.10-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.0860.0076.800.040.04
ElonCAA0.210.0844.4451.04-0.020.00
FairfieldMAAC0.210.0840.0037.46-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0828.5727.36-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0850.0051.710.000.00
LamarSlnd0.210.0814.2936.23-0.15-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0830.0037.19-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0032.37-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0061.160.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0870.0062.800.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0836.3647.95-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0890.9180.170.000.05
WagnerNEC0.000.0812.5031.01-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.340.000.02
MercerSC0.000.0644.4443.16-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.11-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0630.0032.35-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.54-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0073.040.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5545.090.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.130.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.65-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.450.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0050.570.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0662.5057.910.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.750.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0645.4552.17-0.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.190.0650.0055.800.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.440.0670.0059.740.180.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7871.240.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.260.0620.0025.91-0.16-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.260.0614.2930.32-0.19-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.210.0650.0055.090.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.210.0666.6764.890.070.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.58-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0640.0051.94-0.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0650.0049.140.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.190.0566.6754.450.060.00
BinghamtonAE0.380.050.0010.55-0.38-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.360.050.0011.31-0.36-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.190.0516.6737.43-0.13-0.01
PennIvy0.380.0537.5033.40-0.10-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.210.0555.5665.160.020.02
DePaulBE0.000.0560.0034.330.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0525.0034.43-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0572.7367.750.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0518.1825.24-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0520.0029.06-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0560.0064.660.000.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.0537.5039.38-0.04-0.01
FloridaSEC0.420.0563.6464.970.110.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0566.6765.780.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0566.6762.820.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0536.3645.36-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.170.0554.5553.240.020.00
High PointBSth0.190.0566.6761.820.060.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0516.6736.42-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.170.0560.0069.180.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0533.3328.70-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.059.0915.53-0.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0520.0046.45-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0512.5029.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0550.0071.160.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0550.0053.920.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0555.5660.570.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0518.1827.26-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.170.0533.3349.48-0.06-0.00
StanfordP120.210.0566.6758.210.070.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0068.320.000.02
TempleAmer0.210.0563.6456.720.060.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0563.6467.200.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0566.6758.480.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.9170.260.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0525.0044.51-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0345.4545.06-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.260.0314.2914.63-0.19-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.220.000.01
DaytonA100.260.0380.0069.340.160.01
TulaneAmer0.260.0388.8956.070.200.00
UTSACUSA0.260.0337.5035.62-0.07-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0337.5041.68-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.230.0336.3637.27-0.06-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0016.07-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.920.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.780.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.230.030.006.54-0.23-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.230.0354.5548.690.02-0.00
Washington St.P120.230.0345.4530.45-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.190.0366.6771.560.060.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.210.0338.4644.44-0.05-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0360.0047.200.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6763.320.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0340.0046.92-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.280.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.800.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0342.8649.26-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0377.7872.900.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.0316.6733.12-0.13-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.9168.430.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0043.91-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.030.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.210.0350.0058.340.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0046.480.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0048.150.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2236.02-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5033.78-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.190.0362.5041.050.05-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.440.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0327.2728.77-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0363.6456.310.000.00
KentuckySEC0.210.03100.0096.240.210.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.55-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.170.0354.5551.400.020.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.0333.3340.88-0.06-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.240.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0333.3361.51-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.210.0354.5559.550.020.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.75-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0054.280.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.210.030.008.70-0.21-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.170.0333.3341.93-0.06-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0330.0042.78-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0035.75-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.210.0337.5064.62-0.050.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0050.260.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6750.030.000.00
USCP120.000.0363.6440.160.00-0.01
UtahP120.210.0380.0080.490.120.02