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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:48.5
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:38
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:55
Expected OOC SOS:27



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-68.20.04%
24-712.60.23%
23-814.41.24%
22-918.93.34%
21-1023.87.77%
20-1130.013.19%
19-1237.817.95%
18-1346.619.08%
17-1457.815.89%
16-1570.311.81%
15-1683.85.91%
14-1798.82.52%
13-18113.30.77%
12-19134.80.22%
11-20139.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona (35.7)P12N63-65L0%0.0
11-15Kentucky (9.3)SECN48-69L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi Valley St. (316.3)SWACH100-53W100%0.0
11-20Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunH78-77W100%0.0
11-23St. John's (151.8)BEN73-62W100%0.0
11-24Baylor (8.1)B12N58-73L0%0.0
11-25Wichita St. (33.4)MVCN77-72W100%0.0
11-29Duke (9.9)ACCA78-69L0%0.0
12-3Oral Roberts (290.8)SumH80-76W100%0.0
12-6Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzH0-096%21.4
12-10Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH0-098%24.2
12-18Northeastern (182.8)CAAH0-092%17.0
12-21Oakland (95.3)HorzH0-077%8.8
12-27Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-041%-2.6
12-30Northwestern (51.2)B10H0-059%2.7
1-4Rutgers (168.4)B10H0-088%14.0
1-7Penn St. (121.4)B10A0-064%4.2
1-11Minnesota (36.2)B10H0-062%3.7
1-15Ohio St. (39.3)B10A0-037%-4.0
1-21Indiana (20.4)B10A0-024%-8.3
1-24Purdue (28.0)B10H0-041%-2.7
1-29Michigan (38.7)B10H0-054%1.3
2-2Nebraska (86.3)B10A0-057%2.1
2-7Michigan (38.7)B10A0-034%-5.0
2-11Iowa (195.6)B10H0-084%12.0
2-14Ohio St. (39.3)B10H0-058%2.3
2-18Purdue (28.0)B10A0-023%-8.9
2-23Nebraska (86.3)B10H0-076%8.4
2-25Wisconsin (22.2)B10H0-039%-3.3
3-1Illinois (93.1)B10A0-056%1.7
3-5Maryland (85.4)B10A0-057%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1028.1526.0951.3555.490.762.86
Ohio St.B100.003.8487.5069.710.001.51
MinnesotaB100.353.8187.5069.380.261.48
NebraskaB100.003.8057.1445.730.00-0.32
MichiganB100.003.7875.0067.180.001.30
PurdueB100.003.7575.0075.840.001.94
Penn St.B100.312.3066.6746.760.10-0.15
NorthwesternB100.312.2775.0067.000.150.77
WisconsinB100.002.2777.7876.550.001.21
IndianaB100.312.2787.5074.450.231.11
IowaB100.002.2537.5038.47-0.00-0.52
MarylandB100.002.2487.5059.900.000.44
IllinoisB100.002.2262.5050.930.000.04
RutgersB100.002.1985.7146.510.00-0.15
OaklandHorz0.401.7285.7179.080.281.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.7242.8639.40-0.00-0.36
St. John'sBE5.561.6942.8638.26-0.79-0.40
BaylorB126.351.67100.0075.786.350.86
Oral RobertsSum5.901.670.0023.13-5.90-0.90
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC5.561.660.0026.07-5.56-0.80
NortheasternCAA0.001.6450.0045.660.00-0.14
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.901.6466.6774.711.970.81
DukeACC5.561.6487.5077.684.170.91
ArizonaP125.561.6171.4367.312.380.56
KentuckySEC5.561.6185.7182.223.971.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.6125.0028.44-0.00-0.70
Wichita St.MVC5.561.6185.7189.703.971.28
UCLAP120.350.24100.0086.690.350.17
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.1928.5731.44-0.15-0.07
KansasB120.310.1987.5075.860.230.10
LouisvilleACC0.690.1887.5075.590.520.09
NJITASun0.000.1650.0049.780.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.1637.5051.64-0.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0076.630.000.09
SouthernSWAC0.000.1640.0058.82-0.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.140.0021.22-0.00-0.08
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1457.1453.990.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1425.0030.23-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1442.8651.95-0.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1485.7174.990.000.07
Wright St.Horz0.000.1462.5051.790.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.1471.4348.350.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.990.000.03
TexasB120.000.1357.1438.680.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1387.5065.250.000.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1314.2943.58-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.350.1362.5040.460.09-0.02
ButlerBE0.350.13100.0074.440.350.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1375.0066.410.000.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1387.5081.960.000.08
Notre DameACC0.000.13100.0077.380.000.07
LipscombASun0.000.1212.5033.04-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.1150.0046.020.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.400.1142.8643.60-0.06-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1142.8645.44-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1128.5732.62-0.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.310.1171.4370.210.130.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.110.0016.68-0.00-0.07
FloridaSEC0.400.1187.5075.240.300.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0013.46-0.00-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1116.6738.58-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.310.000.01
West VirginiaB120.310.1185.7183.660.220.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1140.0041.12-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1157.1449.130.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.070.000.04
DePaulBE0.000.1066.6735.430.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1055.5647.890.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1071.4355.820.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.350.1050.0066.300.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.1071.4354.560.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.310.1042.8658.58-0.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1011.1148.19-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1075.0056.590.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1050.0046.240.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0084.840.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.1087.5078.510.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.280.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0950.0071.020.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0825.0039.59-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0842.8655.09-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.400.0871.4358.920.170.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0860.0058.590.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0850.0046.410.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0816.6730.34-0.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.400.0862.5067.390.100.03
MississippiSEC0.400.0875.0048.500.20-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0885.7170.060.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0871.4373.490.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0842.8638.63-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0850.0040.600.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0887.5059.310.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0828.5738.15-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0842.8653.19-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0820.0022.75-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.0833.3356.24-0.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1452.030.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0857.1436.010.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0019.67-0.00-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.0871.4359.470.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0862.5043.220.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0833.3352.84-0.000.00
VCUA100.690.0875.0073.060.350.04
William & MaryCAA0.310.0833.3346.01-0.10-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0833.3339.61-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0816.6739.78-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0816.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.350.080.0034.47-0.35-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0857.1442.530.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0875.0049.180.00-0.00
XavierBE0.350.0887.5070.890.260.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0885.7166.190.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.450.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0812.5030.39-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.0812.5037.99-0.26-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0814.2931.28-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.850.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0871.4366.700.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0875.0054.490.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.740.060.0038.27-0.74-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.740.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.740.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0622.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.01-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0514.2931.35-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0571.4356.250.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.350.0550.0058.040.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0533.3336.74-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.350.0537.5044.39-0.09-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.350.0575.0054.670.170.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0542.8654.90-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0542.8627.96-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0566.6761.550.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0542.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.760.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.11-0.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0512.5030.68-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.05100.0061.680.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5062.040.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0583.3377.100.000.03
FordhamA100.000.0550.0041.310.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.310.0557.1454.360.040.00
LSUSEC0.350.0571.4349.170.15-0.00
MaineAE0.310.0514.2924.15-0.22-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0514.2938.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0051.040.000.00
OregonP120.350.0575.0072.250.170.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.050.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0575.0066.370.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0585.7162.220.000.01
DuquesneA100.350.0544.4442.03-0.04-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0550.0060.620.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.660.05100.0091.920.660.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.310.0533.3348.07-0.10-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0571.4363.930.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0571.4354.860.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.050.0017.61-0.00-0.03
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.050.0035.95-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0557.1471.520.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0542.8645.56-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0566.6766.860.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.060.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.310.0522.2238.49-0.17-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0557.1467.260.000.02
USCP120.000.05100.0076.680.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0542.8650.06-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0557.1452.370.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0542.8628.98-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
MontanaBSky0.400.0325.0048.10-0.20-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0328.5741.52-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.64-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.92-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.350.0371.4360.540.150.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5729.95-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.350.030.0027.12-0.35-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.320.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0316.6729.80-0.21-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.0314.2932.19-0.25-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.0342.8660.54-0.050.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.310.0344.4434.65-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.450.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.350.0316.6739.20-0.23-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0371.4368.050.150.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.310.0362.5069.130.080.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.350.0337.5033.74-0.09-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.350.0333.3332.35-0.12-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6739.49-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.350.0325.0055.33-0.170.00
TulaneAmer0.350.0312.5023.93-0.26-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01