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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:36.2
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:63
Current SOS:29
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:262



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-12.50.04%
27-24.90.07%
26-36.40.54%
25-48.62.04%
24-512.35.95%
23-617.311.52%
22-723.417.84%
21-832.020.32%
20-942.118.47%
19-1053.812.32%
18-1167.76.56%
17-1280.62.97%
16-1396.90.99%
15-14112.90.27%
14-15134.70.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Navy (290.2)PatA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Duke (3.6)ACCN81-71L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (214.4)MVCH87-52W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (196.8)WCCH79-52W100%0.0
11-27Rider (209.8)MAACN0-093%17.8
12-3Notre Dame (62.1)ACCA0-043%-2.2
12-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (318.9)SWACH0-099%30.5
12-14Oakland (253.4)HorzH0-097%22.3
12-17Eastern Michigan (155.5)MACH0-094%18.3
12-20Texas Southern (243.6)SWACH0-098%24.6
12-22The Citadel (324.3)SCH0-099%29.1
12-30Maryland (43.9)B10H0-069%5.9
1-5Indiana (90.4)B10H0-079%9.6
1-8Iowa (42.3)B10A0-041%-2.8
1-11Northwestern (171.8)B10H0-094%19.1
1-17Maryland (43.9)B10A0-046%-1.3
1-21Penn St. (130.4)B10H0-089%15.0
1-24Nebraska (80.9)B10A0-059%2.7
1-27Rutgers (231.6)B10A0-091%15.8
2-1Michigan (41.5)B10H0-067%5.3
2-7Illinois (53.3)B10H0-071%6.8
2-10Northwestern (171.8)B10A0-084%11.9
2-14Ohio St. (33.4)B10H0-061%3.3
2-17Michigan (41.5)B10A0-044%-1.8
2-22Illinois (53.3)B10A0-049%-0.4
2-26Minnesota (89.2)B10H0-078%9.3
3-1Wisconsin (5.6)B10A0-019%-10.4
3-4Purdue (48.3)B10H0-068%5.5
3-7Indiana (90.4)B10A0-058%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1032.5026.1372.2271.4314.4411.20
MichiganB100.004.1075.0068.250.001.50
NorthwesternB100.004.0883.3341.570.00-0.69
MarylandB100.004.08100.0073.860.001.95
IllinoisB100.004.08100.0066.900.001.38
IndianaB100.004.0780.0058.870.000.72
PurdueB100.002.4483.3369.810.000.97
RutgersB100.002.4450.0025.040.00-1.22
Ohio St.B100.002.41100.0075.930.001.25
WisconsinB100.002.41100.0086.670.001.77
NebraskaB100.002.4175.0053.750.000.18
IowaB100.002.3866.6766.060.000.77
Penn St.B100.002.3883.3349.670.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.002.3550.0056.480.000.30
Notre DameACC1.251.8483.3369.610.830.72
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.840.0042.09-0.00-0.29
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.81100.0054.190.000.15
OaklandHorz0.001.8116.6727.27-0.00-0.82
DukeACC12.501.81100.0083.0512.501.20
NavyPat12.501.7925.0031.00-6.25-0.68
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.7816.6732.75-0.00-0.61
The CitadelSC0.001.750.0029.90-0.00-0.71
Loyola ChicagoMVC12.501.72100.0042.3812.50-0.26
RiderMAAC0.001.7250.0048.270.00-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC12.501.7250.0041.280.00-0.30
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.220.0015.65-0.00-0.15
VMISC0.000.1825.0036.44-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.180.0027.64-0.00-0.08
SyracuseACC0.000.1780.0068.140.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.17100.0079.150.000.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.170.0020.69-0.00-0.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.150.0028.63-0.00-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1566.6753.510.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.15100.0054.940.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1540.0026.51-0.00-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.000.15100.0077.900.000.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1520.0031.23-0.00-0.06
BucknellPat0.000.1533.3335.82-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1450.0052.150.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1420.0043.55-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.1450.0065.300.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1460.0050.770.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1460.0057.880.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0035.41-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0033.69-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.14100.0049.260.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1475.0067.420.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1340.0048.44-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC1.040.1225.0027.83-0.52-0.05
ToledoMAC0.000.1240.0060.24-0.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1275.0043.690.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1240.0038.71-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1250.0047.220.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1260.0058.400.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1266.6759.500.000.02
OregonP120.000.1260.0063.060.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0077.100.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1260.0036.000.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1225.0039.50-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1175.0062.480.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1166.6751.600.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.1120.0038.01-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0079.800.000.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0062.99-0.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0071.480.000.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1140.0052.52-0.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0042.16-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0073.600.000.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0032.51-0.00-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1025.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1050.0049.570.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0950.0067.000.000.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0088.520.000.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.0966.6755.570.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3335.00-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0980.0077.430.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.0966.6751.430.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0950.0040.550.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0075.690.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0975.0077.520.000.05
LehighPat0.000.0920.0042.40-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0920.0034.26-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0031.85-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0925.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0920.0041.72-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.190.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0069.410.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0920.0039.02-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC1.040.0940.0032.41-0.21-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.290.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0966.6756.860.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0030.79-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.090.0045.08-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0916.6745.77-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0940.0036.41-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.08-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0880.0074.900.000.04
ElonCAA0.000.0840.0039.53-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.080.0026.01-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0825.0036.41-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.08100.0065.430.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6758.830.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0750.0025.330.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0733.3354.15-0.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3331.37-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0051.720.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.830.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0775.0049.940.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0750.0058.990.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.060.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0024.98-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0068.330.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.110.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
NortheasternCAA1.250.0680.0066.690.750.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.47-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.110.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.02-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0016.41-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.520.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.31-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.730.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0066.080.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0060.080.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0640.0031.26-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0033.15-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.18-0.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0620.0029.79-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0023.29-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.700.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3361.50-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4357.180.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0046.16-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE1.250.060.0022.97-1.25-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.800.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3359.02-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE1.250.06100.0066.691.250.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0058.520.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0027.57-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0030.92-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0051.010.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3330.11-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3339.40-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.280.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0625.0034.11-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0053.810.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.110.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0046.02-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.980.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0024.09-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.630.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.91-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0066.35-0.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0061.400.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.60-0.00-0.02
StanfordP121.040.0680.0070.970.620.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.30-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.63-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW2.080.0325.0033.19-1.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.46-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.26-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC2.080.0360.0055.090.420.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3329.54-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.94-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.670.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.150.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
UTSACUSA3.120.0333.3329.25-1.04-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.25-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0061.080.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.970.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0050.040.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.350.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.690.000.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6759.280.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2931.08-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.34-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.95-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.990.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0325.0040.45-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0041.79-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3345.71-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0064.150.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.83-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.550.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.110.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.42-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0034.56-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.68-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.340.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0340.0057.50-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.360.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0030.81-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.66-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0350.0071.940.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0027.68-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0047.310.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth1.040.030.0022.89-1.04-0.02
TempleAmer1.040.0360.0050.320.210.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.270.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.120.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01