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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:30.7
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:216
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:60
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-23.40.08%
26-35.00.61%
25-46.61.97%
24-59.45.56%
23-613.410.56%
22-718.516.52%
21-824.820.30%
20-933.518.60%
19-1044.012.89%
18-1156.97.57%
17-1271.83.36%
16-1388.11.45%
15-14107.90.37%
14-15119.10.13%
13-16155.00.01%
12-17170.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Navy (271.4)PatA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Duke (2.5)ACCN81-71L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH87-52W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (167.4)WCCH0-091%16.4
11-27Rider (192.3)MAACN0-091%16.4
12-3Notre Dame (36.7)ACCA0-037%-3.9
12-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (312.0)SWACH0-099%29.5
12-14Oakland (245.0)HorzH0-096%21.1
12-17Eastern Michigan (175.9)MACH0-095%19.9
12-20Texas Southern (260.8)SWACH0-098%25.8
12-22The Citadel (328.2)SCH0-099%29.8
12-30Maryland (57.7)B10H0-074%7.8
1-5Indiana (67.9)B10H0-077%8.8
1-8Iowa (38.6)B10A0-041%-2.7
1-11Northwestern (169.8)B10H0-093%17.7
1-17Maryland (57.7)B10A0-052%0.6
1-21Penn St. (122.0)B10H0-087%13.6
1-24Nebraska (84.0)B10A0-059%2.8
1-27Rutgers (170.5)B10A0-079%9.6
2-1Michigan (46.1)B10H0-070%6.4
2-7Illinois (42.0)B10H0-069%6.0
2-10Northwestern (169.8)B10A0-081%10.5
2-14Ohio St. (38.8)B10H0-066%4.8
2-17Michigan (46.1)B10A0-047%-0.8
2-22Illinois (42.0)B10A0-046%-1.2
2-26Minnesota (62.9)B10H0-074%7.7
3-1Wisconsin (6.2)B10A0-021%-9.6
3-4Purdue (64.5)B10H0-076%8.4
3-7Indiana (67.9)B10A0-055%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1037.0826.1466.6771.0312.3610.99
MichiganB100.004.11100.0066.160.001.33
IllinoisB100.004.09100.0068.860.001.54
NorthwesternB100.004.09100.0044.200.00-0.47
MarylandB100.004.09100.0066.480.001.35
IndianaB100.004.09100.0063.970.001.14
RutgersB100.002.4550.0038.120.00-0.58
PurdueB100.002.44100.0061.850.000.58
Ohio St.B100.002.42100.0072.570.001.09
WisconsinB100.002.42100.0085.110.001.70
NebraskaB100.002.4266.6752.740.000.13
IowaB100.002.3950.0065.800.000.76
Penn St.B100.002.3975.0048.360.00-0.08
MinnesotaB100.002.3666.6762.610.000.60
Notre DameACC2.081.84100.0075.022.080.92
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.840.0038.41-0.00-0.43
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.82100.0050.950.000.03
OaklandHorz0.001.810.0033.50-0.00-0.60
DukeACC16.671.81100.0085.6616.671.29
NavyPat16.671.790.0033.83-16.67-0.58
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.7825.0035.12-0.00-0.53
The CitadelSC0.001.750.0029.18-0.00-0.73
Loyola ChicagoMVC16.671.720.0040.08-16.67-0.34
RiderMAAC0.001.7266.6752.810.000.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.001.7250.0046.310.00-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.230.0018.48-0.00-0.14
VMISC0.000.1933.3339.27-0.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.180.0033.68-0.00-0.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1775.0068.160.000.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.170.0025.50-0.00-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.17100.0078.630.000.10
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.150.0032.70-0.00-0.05
BucknellPat0.000.1525.0035.71-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.15100.0054.710.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1566.6734.100.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1525.0035.65-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1566.6758.230.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1533.3336.99-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.1550.0068.880.000.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.140.0038.72-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1450.0051.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1466.6750.790.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.140.0031.92-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.14100.0053.080.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.14100.0073.290.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0049.23-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.1233.3325.18-0.00-0.06
ToledoMAC0.000.1233.3364.19-0.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0046.020.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1266.6752.030.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1233.3354.50-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1233.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.12100.0045.990.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.1250.0054.620.000.01
OregonP120.000.12100.0071.440.000.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1233.3340.99-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.1266.6733.180.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0047.13-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.1125.0037.31-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.630.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0041.59-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0063.44-0.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0061.850.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0073.530.000.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0039.15-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0075.720.000.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.100.0046.61-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1025.0031.88-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1050.0051.860.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0087.190.000.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.09100.0050.830.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0975.0075.140.000.05
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0056.270.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0072.420.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0925.0035.61-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0069.320.000.04
LehighPat0.000.090.0036.87-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0034.81-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.730.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0066.100.000.03
ColgatePat0.000.0933.3341.16-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0067.49-0.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.090.0033.14-0.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0933.3357.45-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.090.0028.32-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0966.6754.020.000.01
FairfieldMAAC1.670.0925.0031.12-0.83-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0966.6758.650.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.090.0035.36-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.090.0045.12-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.090.0035.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0925.0051.56-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0041.480.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6768.230.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.080.0034.03-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0070.030.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3327.10-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.260.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.910.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0051.660.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.830.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6748.330.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.07100.0062.040.000.02
NortheasternCAA2.080.06100.0071.442.080.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.36-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0085.100.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3359.57-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.360.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0675.0064.270.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0650.0031.980.00-0.02
NJITind0.000.0625.0025.21-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0042.680.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.17-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0633.3322.74-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3343.68-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3346.93-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.670.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0034.55-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.07-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0666.6763.960.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.64-0.000.01
ProvidenceBE2.080.06100.0069.672.080.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0040.40-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0025.43-0.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0675.0042.500.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6754.240.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0633.3340.91-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.540.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.060.0036.19-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.73-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0051.050.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0065.270.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0038.370.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
StanfordP121.670.0675.0071.090.830.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0056.39-0.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0057.480.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.58-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0019.92-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.850.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0366.6746.620.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0375.0053.860.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.830.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0063.720.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0350.0031.810.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.01-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3349.04-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6748.790.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0035.64-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.060.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0041.97-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0069.300.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0034.71-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6746.540.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3336.55-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0325.0066.02-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0333.3345.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth1.670.030.0024.77-1.67-0.01
TempleAmer1.670.0350.0053.100.000.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0081.740.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01