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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:18.9
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:63
Current Record:20-5
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC Record:13-0
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-515.245.06%
25-620.039.91%
24-725.812.92%
23-835.22.00%
22-948.00.09%
21-1061.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Florida Atlantic (280.3)CUSAH82-55W100%0.0
11-17Kansas (4.3)B12N79-73W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (314.7)SWACH92-46W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Michigan (144.1)MACH89-65W100%0.0
11-26Boston College (234.4)ACCN99-68W100%0.0
11-27Boise St. (96.7)MWCN77-67W100%0.0
11-29Providence (50.3)BEN64-77W100%0.0
12-2Louisville (17.8)ACCH71-67W100%0.0
12-5Binghamton (308.8)AEH76-33W100%0.0
12-9Maryland Eastern Shore (276.1)MEACH78-35W100%0.0
12-12Florida (23.6)SECH58-52W100%0.0
12-19Northeastern (148.8)CAAA58-78W100%0.0
12-22Oakland (110.2)HorzN93-99W100%0.0
12-29Iowa (7.4)B10A83-70L0%0.0
1-2Minnesota (247.2)B10A61-69W100%0.0
1-7Illinois (157.5)B10H79-54W100%0.0
1-10Penn St. (132.8)B10A65-92W100%0.0
1-14Iowa (7.4)B10H59-76L0%0.0
1-17Wisconsin (59.0)B10A77-76L0%0.0
1-20Nebraska (149.4)B10H71-72L0%0.0
1-23Maryland (5.8)B10H74-65W100%0.0
1-28Northwestern (120.4)B10A45-76W100%0.0
1-31Rutgers (281.5)B10H96-62W100%0.0
2-6Michigan (47.1)B10A73-89W100%0.0
2-9Purdue (14.6)B10A82-81L0%0.0
2-14Indiana (39.1)B10H0-074%6.9
2-18Wisconsin (59.0)B10H0-088%13.0
2-23Ohio St. (90.9)B10A0-079%8.7
2-28Penn St. (132.8)B10H0-097%21.0
3-2Rutgers (281.5)B10A0-099%23.8
3-6Ohio St. (90.9)B10H0-092%15.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1426.0979.6580.6815.5016.01
Penn St.B102.473.8452.1749.890.11-0.01
Ohio St.B100.463.7860.0058.370.090.63
IowaB104.373.7880.9579.132.712.20
RutgersB102.373.7822.7321.74-1.29-2.14
WisconsinB102.293.7560.8757.040.500.53
IllinoisB102.382.3047.8345.58-0.10-0.20
PurdueB102.552.2779.1777.231.491.24
MarylandB102.462.2791.3086.572.031.66
NebraskaB102.502.2750.0049.140.00-0.04
IndianaB100.422.2579.1775.660.241.15
MichiganB102.462.2573.9169.021.180.85
NorthwesternB102.382.2566.6764.160.790.64
MinnesotaB102.332.2226.0928.17-1.11-0.97
Boston CollegeACC2.121.7230.4327.62-0.83-0.77
Eastern MichiganMAC2.121.7242.1145.09-0.34-0.17
OaklandHorz2.091.6770.8370.260.870.68
LouisvilleACC2.091.6782.6178.611.360.95
ProvidenceBE2.081.6675.0071.461.040.71
NortheasternCAA2.051.6447.8348.24-0.09-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.041.6423.8128.15-1.07-0.72
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.041.6430.4334.94-0.80-0.49
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.041.6425.0026.50-1.02-0.77
BinghamtonAE2.041.6421.7424.95-1.15-0.82
FloridaSEC2.041.6469.5768.540.800.61
Boise St.MWC2.001.6163.6462.690.550.41
KansasB122.001.6186.3681.921.451.03
Notre DameACC0.210.1870.8367.820.090.07
VermontAE0.210.1652.0054.870.010.02
UMass LowellAE0.170.1634.7835.64-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.260.1669.5764.900.100.05
GeorgetownBE0.170.1656.0052.840.020.01
Iowa St.B120.210.1670.8368.000.090.06
ClemsonACC0.130.1658.3358.370.020.03
CreightonBE0.120.1664.0062.040.030.04
MarquetteBE0.210.1664.0057.920.060.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1675.0072.630.060.07
VirginiaACC0.120.1683.3378.470.080.09
HowardMEAC0.130.1436.3638.93-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.160.1372.7367.630.080.05
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1345.8342.32-0.01-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.1325.0023.45-0.04-0.07
Wake ForestACC0.090.1341.6739.91-0.01-0.03
MissouriSEC0.160.1333.3330.27-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.170.1382.6177.520.110.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1359.0959.650.020.03
North CarolinaACC0.210.1383.3378.400.140.07
DePaulBE0.120.1333.3334.01-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.080.1366.6762.560.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.139.0917.14-0.10-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.090.1165.2260.580.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.1160.0057.640.010.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.180.1114.2920.65-0.13-0.07
DetroitHorz0.130.1147.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.119.0912.25-0.07-0.08
HartfordAE0.120.1125.0026.74-0.06-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.1152.1754.140.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1113.0413.56-0.09-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.1140.0045.48-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.170.1128.5732.73-0.07-0.04
Texas TechB120.130.1160.8755.300.030.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.1173.9172.580.040.05
DrexelCAA0.040.1113.6418.18-0.03-0.07
George WashingtonA100.090.1175.0071.920.040.05
HarvardIvy0.170.1135.0038.52-0.05-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1150.0049.050.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.090.1186.9682.580.060.07
Seton HallBE0.080.1170.8368.100.030.04
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1127.7829.16-0.06-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.104.357.72-0.15-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1030.4332.35-0.06-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1058.3359.960.020.02
DukeACC0.080.1075.0071.800.040.05
Green BayHorz0.080.1054.5556.010.010.01
VMISC0.040.1015.0016.73-0.03-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.120.1052.0048.860.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.1040.0040.34-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.1015.0018.11-0.03-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1020.0022.26-0.07-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.140.0956.5257.000.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0931.8232.69-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.040.0960.8762.080.010.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.0834.7833.05-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0840.9145.29-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.080.0824.0026.33-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0869.5770.070.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.120.0850.0049.490.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.120.0881.8282.620.080.05
North FloridaASun0.130.0865.2267.120.040.03
ArizonaP120.130.0879.1778.330.070.05
Colorado St.MWC0.130.0854.5552.540.010.00
MaineAE0.080.0833.3333.13-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.120.0857.1453.980.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0858.3360.690.010.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.0856.5262.820.020.02
UABCUSA0.090.0882.6179.390.060.05
UNLVMWC0.040.0852.1755.090.000.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.230.030.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0858.3356.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.130.0872.7371.660.060.03
ElonCAA0.120.0852.1750.420.010.00
TexasB120.090.0866.6762.210.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0843.4837.81-0.01-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0871.4368.750.020.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0829.1733.11-0.05-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.120.0821.7423.32-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.130.0879.1778.060.080.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.0821.7422.74-0.07-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0842.8646.35-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.0833.3335.05-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.120.0858.3357.220.020.01
TempleAmer0.080.0863.6459.710.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0887.5081.860.060.05
ButlerBE0.120.0870.8368.990.050.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.0955.220.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.040.0854.1751.980.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.085.007.22-0.07-0.07
VillanovaBE0.120.0887.5086.870.090.06
Ball St.MAC0.050.0660.8757.160.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0658.3358.480.020.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0676.0076.320.040.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.430.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0619.0525.90-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.040.0657.1455.290.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0623.8122.82-0.02-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.090.0647.6249.26-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.03-0.04
WyomingMWC0.040.0643.4842.47-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.040.0663.6461.480.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0556.0056.490.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0534.7840.89-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0525.0029.28-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.190.000.00
MontanaBSky0.090.0557.8962.320.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0566.6765.220.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0554.1754.110.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0583.3381.320.060.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0545.4546.21-0.01-0.00
BaylorB120.040.0573.9168.480.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0525.0030.04-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0563.6460.930.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0586.9682.150.060.03
DrakeMVC0.090.0520.8323.19-0.05-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0550.0051.910.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0545.4547.54-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0570.8369.490.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0580.0081.160.030.03
TCUB120.090.0545.8339.35-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0565.2264.370.030.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0565.2259.750.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0576.1973.410.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.740.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0571.4369.840.040.02
ArmyPat0.080.0554.1754.290.010.00
BryantNEC0.080.0525.0026.40-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.080.0533.3335.16-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0540.0042.12-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0541.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0535.0034.80-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.040.0552.1754.960.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0544.0045.35-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.040.0569.5765.310.020.02
DuquesneA100.040.0560.8756.360.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0521.7423.40-0.02-0.03
LSUSEC0.040.0562.5059.050.010.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0558.3359.360.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0569.5769.040.000.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0562.5058.920.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.040.0547.3749.90-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0550.0051.280.000.00
SamfordSC0.080.0541.6742.61-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0564.0064.110.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0537.5043.37-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0576.1972.310.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0568.1871.310.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.040.0581.8283.030.030.03
VCUA100.040.0573.9174.060.020.03
Wright St.Horz0.040.0556.5257.020.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0572.0071.540.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0530.4331.21-0.03-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0514.2924.86-0.06-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0536.8442.89-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0528.5733.35-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0550.0054.190.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0561.9065.310.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0545.4554.16-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.040.0329.1731.18-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.040.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.0011.96-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.89-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.040.0342.1140.18-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.230.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.040.0363.6461.640.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0359.0961.310.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0339.1338.56-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0325.0033.20-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.07-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0310.0013.14-0.03-0.02
OregonP120.040.0382.6179.250.030.02
PennIvy0.040.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.040.0340.0038.51-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0372.7370.400.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.040.0340.0036.70-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.680.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.040.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.040.0341.6739.62-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0354.1750.990.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5727.00-0.02-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0361.9056.450.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.680.020.01
SMUAmer0.040.0386.9682.900.030.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0373.9174.700.020.01
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.270.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0360.8755.970.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.040.0350.0053.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0042.85-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.040.0331.5831.04-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0386.9686.650.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0339.1341.03-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.040.0375.0076.190.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0347.6252.03-0.000.00
FordhamA100.040.0352.3850.750.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.130.030.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0352.9452.060.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0370.8368.590.000.01
IUPUISum0.040.0340.0039.76-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.82-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.03-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0343.4843.76-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.480.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0327.7834.45-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.260.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0363.6462.150.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.730.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.040.0334.7837.06-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0334.7832.42-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.9680.370.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0373.0872.640.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0375.0075.330.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.040.0333.3334.95-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0362.5060.110.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.040.0373.6874.680.020.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0384.2181.660.030.02
SeattleWAC0.040.0347.6245.00-0.00-0.00