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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:51.0
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:9
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:64
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1451.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona (2.0)P12N63-65L0%0.0
11-15Kentucky (3.0)SECN48-69L0%0.0
11-18Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH100-53W100%0.0
11-20Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH78-77W100%0.0
11-23St. John's (140.0)BEN73-62W100%0.0
11-24Baylor (11.0)B12N58-73L0%0.0
11-25Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN77-72W100%0.0
11-29Duke (6.0)ACCA78-69L0%0.0
12-3Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH80-76W100%0.0
12-6Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH77-57W100%0.0
12-10Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH71-63W100%0.0
12-18Northeastern (136.0)CAAH73-81L0%0.0
12-21Oakland (109.0)HorzH77-65W100%0.0
12-27Minnesota (20.0)B10A74-75W100%0.0
12-30Northwestern (50.0)B10H61-52W100%0.0
1-4Rutgers (177.0)B10H93-65W100%0.0
1-7Penn St. (101.0)B10N72-63L0%0.0
1-11Minnesota (20.0)B10H65-47W100%0.0
1-15Ohio St. (90.0)B10A72-67L0%0.0
1-21Indiana (79.0)B10A82-75L0%0.0
1-24Purdue (19.0)B10H73-84L0%0.0
1-29Michigan (25.0)B10H70-62W100%0.0
2-2Nebraska (107.0)B10A61-72W100%0.0
2-7Michigan (25.0)B10A86-57L0%0.0
2-11Iowa (81.0)B10H77-66W100%0.0
2-14Ohio St. (90.0)B10H74-66W100%0.0
2-18Purdue (19.0)B10A80-63L0%0.0
2-23Nebraska (107.0)B10H88-72W100%0.0
2-26Wisconsin (35.0)B10H84-74W100%0.0
3-1Illinois (62.0)B10A73-70L0%0.0
3-4Maryland (36.0)B10A63-60L0%0.0
3-9Penn St. (101.0)B10N78-51W100%0.0
3-10Minnesota (20.0)B10N63-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1526.1554.2054.202.202.20
MinnesotaB105.155.1576.6776.672.752.75
MichiganB103.743.7469.7069.701.471.47
Penn St.B103.733.7345.1645.16-0.36-0.36
Ohio St.B103.663.6653.3353.330.240.24
NebraskaB103.633.6339.2939.29-0.78-0.78
PurdueB103.613.6176.6776.671.921.92
WisconsinB102.252.2575.7675.761.161.16
NorthwesternB102.222.2269.7069.700.880.88
IndianaB102.212.2153.1253.120.140.14
MarylandB102.172.1773.3373.331.011.01
RutgersB102.172.1745.1645.16-0.21-0.21
IllinoisB102.162.1653.3353.330.140.14
IowaB102.152.1558.0658.060.350.35
Youngstown St.Horz1.641.6435.4835.48-0.48-0.48
OaklandHorz1.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
St. John'sBE1.631.6343.7543.75-0.20-0.20
BaylorB121.571.5776.6776.670.840.84
Oral RobertsSum1.561.5622.2222.22-0.87-0.87
DukeACC1.561.5676.4776.470.830.83
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.561.5622.5822.58-0.86-0.86
NortheasternCAA1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.541.5479.3179.310.900.90
ArizonaP121.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
KentuckySEC1.521.5284.8584.851.061.06
Tennessee TechOVC1.521.5234.4834.48-0.47-0.47
Wichita St.MVC1.521.5290.6290.621.231.23
UCLAP120.230.2387.8887.880.170.17
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleACC0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.170.1787.5087.500.120.12
SouthernSWAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
CreightonBE0.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
IUPUISum0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
VillanovaBE0.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
GeorgetownBE0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
ButlerBE0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
South DakotaSum0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1023.0823.08-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
StetsonASun0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.106.906.90-0.08-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TowsonCAA0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
WashingtonP120.040.0429.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0261.5461.540.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01