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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:8.2
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:2
Current Record:16-5
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:17.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:10
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-51.61.09%
24-62.97.87%
23-74.922.64%
22-87.231.36%
21-910.223.69%
20-1015.110.67%
19-1121.82.43%
18-1229.80.23%
17-1340.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina (4.6)ACCN67-55L0%0.0
11-15Duke (4.2)ACCN74-69L0%0.0
11-18Texas Southern (244.5)SWACH76-41W100%0.0
11-20Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBH69-47W100%0.0
11-23Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzH68-55W100%0.0
11-27Eastern Michigan (246.9)MACA40-72W100%0.0
11-30Florida St. (21.9)ACCH65-49W100%0.0
12-7Central Connecticut (236.3)NECH89-69W100%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (27.9)WCCA67-74W100%0.0
12-17Bowling Green (155.1)MACH74-60W100%0.0
12-19Missouri Kansas City (240.4)SumH89-54W100%0.0
12-22Lehigh (109.7)PatH90-81W100%0.0
12-28Indiana (20.6)B10H80-65W100%0.0
12-31Nebraska (117.6)B10A55-68W100%0.0
1-3Wisconsin (21.8)B10A60-63W100%0.0
1-10Iowa (139.5)B10H95-61W100%0.0
1-14Northwestern (66.2)B10A81-74L0%0.0
1-17Michigan (25.3)B10A60-59L0%0.0
1-21Purdue (65.0)B10H83-58W100%0.0
1-25Minnesota (68.5)B10H68-52W100%0.0
1-31Illinois (39.4)B10A42-41L0%0.0
2-5Michigan (25.3)B10H0-084%10.7
2-8Penn St. (163.2)B10H0-097%20.3
2-11Ohio St. (3.4)B10A0-022%-8.3
2-16Wisconsin (21.8)B10H0-061%3.0
2-19Purdue (65.0)B10A0-067%4.8
2-22Minnesota (68.5)B10A0-072%6.2
2-25Nebraska (117.6)B10H0-096%18.8
2-28Indiana (20.6)B10A0-045%-1.4
3-4Ohio St. (3.4)B10H0-044%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1126.2177.1173.0714.1612.09
WisconsinB102.974.1078.2677.721.682.27
Ohio St.B100.534.0786.9686.760.392.99
IndianaB102.754.0478.2679.111.552.35
MichiganB102.794.0471.4367.421.201.41
MinnesotaB102.804.0272.7364.561.271.17
PurdueB102.854.0268.1863.621.041.09
NebraskaB102.694.0155.0049.980.27-0.00
IllinoisB102.752.5171.4363.241.180.67
NorthwesternB102.812.4860.0053.600.560.18
Penn St.B100.522.4641.6739.85-0.09-0.50
IowaB102.802.4656.5251.090.360.05
DukeACC2.491.8985.7182.531.781.23
Eastern MichiganMAC2.601.8142.8639.71-0.37-0.37
North CarolinaACC2.481.8086.3682.601.811.17
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz2.541.7859.0959.790.460.35
Texas SouthernSWAC2.541.7533.3343.58-0.85-0.22
Florida St.ACC2.491.7576.1974.181.300.85
Arkansas Little RockSB2.491.7245.4545.83-0.23-0.14
Missouri Kansas CitySum2.431.7236.3636.45-0.66-0.47
Bowling GreenMAC2.441.6950.0050.570.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC2.441.6947.6247.39-0.12-0.09
GonzagaWCC2.441.6985.7184.401.741.17
LehighPat2.381.6777.2777.591.300.92
Western MichiganMAC0.320.2240.9142.96-0.06-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.270.2256.5255.200.030.02
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2028.5734.20-0.09-0.06
ButlerHorz0.260.1950.0050.800.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.260.195.267.30-0.24-0.17
VirginiaACC0.160.1981.8276.800.100.10
Miami FLACC0.100.1965.0060.020.030.04
IUPUISum0.320.1734.7835.50-0.10-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1773.9175.490.080.09
Wake ForestACC0.220.1747.8343.66-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.1650.0058.160.000.03
MarylandACC0.210.1659.0950.820.040.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1670.8364.420.040.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1426.0928.60-0.05-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1465.2263.610.050.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.1441.6740.61-0.01-0.03
ColgatePat0.160.1430.4329.50-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.110.1430.0034.15-0.04-0.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.150.1435.0039.38-0.05-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.150.1435.0035.31-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.160.1424.0024.86-0.08-0.07
KentuckySEC0.150.1495.8392.570.140.12
ClemsonACC0.160.1450.0048.360.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1180.7780.750.130.07
South DakotaSum0.160.1126.3228.83-0.08-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1116.6723.02-0.07-0.06
OaklandSum0.110.1148.0050.21-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1152.6348.410.01-0.00
CreightonMVC0.160.1187.5085.410.120.08
Ball St.MAC0.110.1155.0057.410.010.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.1175.0076.000.050.06
BucknellPat0.100.1173.9175.000.050.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1161.9063.520.020.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.110.1125.0025.13-0.05-0.06
Iowa St.B120.160.1173.9168.430.070.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1117.6527.10-0.07-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1117.3924.41-0.07-0.06
TempleA100.160.1177.2775.060.090.05
Georgia TechACC0.220.1139.1342.12-0.05-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.1119.0525.52-0.03-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.1130.4326.44-0.02-0.05
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.160.1182.6181.440.100.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1152.3857.860.000.02
BryantNEC0.160.098.3310.86-0.13-0.07
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0956.5257.150.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.110.0921.7422.76-0.06-0.05
WagnerNEC0.110.0982.6184.570.070.06
ArmyPat0.110.0940.9141.72-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.110.0947.8349.03-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.110.0968.1867.910.040.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.0968.4266.450.040.03
DenverSB0.160.0970.8372.230.070.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.0930.0030.06-0.04-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0971.4369.050.020.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0959.0957.760.020.01
OhioMAC0.060.0981.8277.200.040.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0928.5726.30-0.05-0.04
LafayettePat0.050.0843.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.110.0819.0521.29-0.07-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0850.0051.530.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0838.1040.81-0.01-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.100.0813.6416.35-0.08-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.110.0869.5765.150.040.03
CornellIvy0.110.0836.8441.45-0.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.0850.0042.830.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0854.5554.300.000.01
HowardMEAC0.110.0818.1822.22-0.07-0.05
MarquetteBE0.100.0879.1775.980.060.04
Notre DameBE0.100.0865.2262.650.030.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0821.7424.58-0.06-0.04
WoffordSC0.100.0859.0957.930.020.01
XavierA100.110.0865.2263.740.030.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0882.6177.630.040.05
StetsonASun0.100.0831.8231.31-0.04-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.110.0866.6768.050.040.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0819.0524.61-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.100.0835.0039.29-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0842.1149.81-0.02-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0845.4544.02-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0878.2678.390.030.05
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0840.9139.56-0.01-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0668.0070.030.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.0644.0045.89-0.01-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.068.7012.13-0.09-0.04
MassachusettsA100.110.0673.9168.580.050.02
AmericanPat0.050.0665.2263.790.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0681.8280.430.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.060.0633.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.100.0640.9142.05-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0654.1754.750.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.068.708.99-0.09-0.05
NavyPat0.050.069.5213.19-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.050.0650.0050.010.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0655.0054.480.010.01
OregonP120.060.0669.5764.530.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.0631.8233.83-0.04-0.02
PortlandWCC0.110.0621.7421.70-0.06-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0620.8320.60-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0656.5253.770.010.00
Southern UtahSum0.100.0645.4544.30-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.060.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.110.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.100.0627.2723.80-0.05-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0617.3920.97-0.04-0.03
Long IslandNEC0.050.0670.8371.050.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.110.0628.0028.91-0.05-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.110.0647.3742.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.0652.3852.870.010.00
TulsaCUSA0.110.0660.8759.050.020.01
DuquesneA100.060.0659.0956.350.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.110.0662.5062.060.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.500.030.01
St. John'sBE0.110.0643.4840.28-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.110.0690.9183.850.090.04
GramblingSWAC0.050.0615.0015.73-0.04-0.04
MemphisCUSA0.050.0669.5771.510.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.0635.0040.78-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.064.005.26-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.050.0654.5556.790.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0566.6760.800.040.01
DrakeMVC0.100.0552.1750.090.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.110.0534.7833.46-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.058.7013.10-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0568.1869.100.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0527.2735.02-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.GWC0.100.054.769.95-0.09-0.04
DaytonA100.050.0560.8760.960.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0534.7838.77-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.050.0531.8232.75-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0579.1780.100.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.058.7011.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.0561.9067.230.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0538.8943.93-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0545.8346.68-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.000.0554.5556.090.000.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.000.0545.0044.15-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0534.7837.24-0.02-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0370.8368.820.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0337.5041.54-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0340.9134.50-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0345.4541.20-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.21-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.000.0383.3384.760.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.200.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
North DakotaGWC0.050.0333.3341.31-0.02-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.060.0357.1460.750.010.01
TroySB0.000.0328.5730.17-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0350.0048.170.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0356.5248.810.01-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.04-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0359.0957.280.010.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0365.2263.740.020.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0395.8392.010.050.02
BelmontASun0.050.0369.5773.280.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.01
ElonSC0.050.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0343.4843.82-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
MissouriB120.050.0391.3087.180.040.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0362.5062.490.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.03-0.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.600.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0356.5253.100.010.00
TexasB120.050.0360.8761.370.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01