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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:23.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:23-11
Expected Record:23-11
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:56
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-1123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Navy (252.0)PatA59-64W100%0.0
11-18Duke (6.0)ACCN81-71L0%0.0
11-21Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH87-52W100%0.0
11-24Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH79-52W100%0.0
11-27Rider (140.0)MAACN45-77W100%0.0
11-28Marquette (147.0)BEN68-79W100%0.0
11-30Kansas (2.0)B12N56-61L0%0.0
12-3Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA79-78L0%0.0
12-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH85-52W100%0.0
12-14Oakland (155.0)HorzH87-61W100%0.0
12-17Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH66-46W100%0.0
12-20Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH64-71L0%0.0
12-22The Citadel (327.0)SCH82-56W100%0.0
12-30Maryland (13.0)B10H66-68L0%0.0
1-5Indiana (61.0)B10H70-50W100%0.0
1-8Iowa (43.0)B10A61-75W100%0.0
1-11Northwestern (125.0)B10H84-77W100%0.0
1-17Maryland (13.0)B10A75-59L0%0.0
1-21Penn St. (108.0)B10H66-60W100%0.0
1-24Nebraska (158.0)B10A79-77L0%0.0
1-29Rutgers (178.0)B10A51-71W100%0.0
2-1Michigan (81.0)B10H76-66W100%0.0
2-7Illinois (73.0)B10H54-59L0%0.0
2-10Northwestern (125.0)B10A44-68W100%0.0
2-14Ohio St. (41.0)B10H59-56W100%0.0
2-17Michigan (81.0)B10A67-80W100%0.0
2-22Illinois (73.0)B10A53-60W100%0.0
2-26Minnesota (98.0)B10H90-96L0%0.0
3-1Wisconsin (4.0)B10A68-61L0%0.0
3-4Purdue (55.0)B10H72-66W100%0.0
3-7Indiana (61.0)B10A72-74W100%0.0
3-13Ohio St. (41.0)B10N76-67W100%0.0
3-14Maryland (13.0)B10N58-62W100%0.0
3-15Wisconsin (4.0)B10N80-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1926.1965.6365.638.188.18
MarylandB105.005.0083.3383.333.333.33
IndianaB103.663.6664.5264.521.061.06
MichiganB103.643.6451.7251.720.130.13
WisconsinB103.633.6390.6290.622.952.95
Ohio St.B103.583.5874.1974.191.731.73
NorthwesternB103.573.5750.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB103.563.5660.0060.000.710.71
Penn St.B102.192.1954.5554.550.200.20
PurdueB102.192.1965.6265.620.680.68
RutgersB102.152.1532.2632.26-0.76-0.76
NebraskaB102.152.1540.0040.00-0.43-0.43
IowaB102.122.1267.7467.740.750.75
MinnesotaB102.122.1251.6151.610.070.07
Notre DameACC1.581.5884.8584.851.101.10
DukeACC1.581.5887.5087.501.181.18
OaklandHorz1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC1.561.5663.6463.640.430.43
MarquetteBE1.561.5641.9441.94-0.25-0.25
Eastern MichiganMAC1.541.5458.6258.620.270.27
NavyPat1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
RiderMAAC1.521.5267.7467.740.540.54
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.511.5138.7138.71-0.34-0.34
The CitadelSC1.491.4930.7730.77-0.57-0.57
KansasB121.491.4975.7675.760.770.77
Santa ClaraWCC1.491.4941.3841.38-0.26-0.26
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.471.4758.6258.620.250.25
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1818.7518.75-0.11-0.11
Iowa St.B120.180.1875.7675.760.090.09
VMISC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.160.1694.1294.120.140.14
Georgia TechACC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1490.9190.910.120.12
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
ButlerBE0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1390.6290.620.110.11
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.130.000.00-0.13-0.13
BaylorB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
FurmanSC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
BucknellPat0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ColgatePat0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
ClemsonACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
PittsburghACC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
St. John'sBE0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas TechB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
WagnerNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
FordhamA100.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
ArizonaP120.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
NJITind0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ElonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0775.8675.860.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
HartfordAE0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0430.7730.77-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.026.906.90-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IPFWSum0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01