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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:21.2
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:83
Current SOS:64
Current Record:17-3
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:12-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-310.97.95%
27-414.522.73%
26-519.130.32%
25-624.822.73%
24-731.911.48%
23-840.13.95%
22-949.50.70%
21-1060.70.12%
20-1162.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Florida (243.4)ASunH98-66W100%0.0
11-14Duke (3.1)ACCN81-88L0%0.0
11-19Stony Brook (188.8)AEH93-71W100%0.0
11-23DePaul (187.2)BEN51-73W100%0.0
11-24Connecticut (102.7)AmerN77-57W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (5.3)ACCN63-45W100%0.0
11-30Notre Dame (57.5)ACCH81-63W100%0.0
12-3Nebraska (100.4)B10H86-57W100%0.0
12-5Rutgers (185.2)B10A52-62W100%0.0
12-9Southern Utah (264.9)BSkyH88-63W100%0.0
12-16Oakland (137.7)HorzN73-86W100%0.0
12-18Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH107-62W100%0.0
12-21Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH102-60W100%0.0
12-29Cleveland St. (322.1)HorzH111-61W100%0.0
12-31Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH108-52W100%0.0
1-4Maryland (43.3)B10H91-61W100%0.0
1-7Ohio St. (21.0)B10A80-64L0%0.0
1-10Rutgers (185.2)B10H76-72W100%0.0
1-13Michigan (38.7)B10H72-82L0%0.0
1-19Indiana (115.9)B10H85-57W100%0.0
1-22Illinois (159.6)B10A0-084%11.0
1-26Wisconsin (130.2)B10H0-091%15.1
1-28Maryland (43.3)B10A0-066%4.6
1-31Penn St. (113.7)B10H0-090%14.3
2-3Indiana (115.9)B10A0-082%10.2
2-6Iowa (157.0)B10A0-084%10.9
2-10Purdue (6.5)B10H0-054%1.2
2-13Minnesota (98.6)B10A0-077%8.3
2-17Northwestern (126.0)B10A0-077%8.4
2-20Illinois (159.6)B10H0-094%17.4
2-25Wisconsin (130.2)B10A0-078%8.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.4426.1080.7781.9916.2716.70
IllinoisB100.253.8647.3746.65-0.01-0.26
RutgersB105.193.8464.7150.501.530.04
IndianaB102.693.8361.1153.660.600.28
WisconsinB100.323.7850.0048.400.00-0.12
MarylandB102.693.7873.6868.771.271.42
NebraskaB102.632.3070.0061.781.050.54
MichiganB102.882.2873.6869.251.360.88
Ohio St.B102.822.2880.0075.731.691.17
PurdueB100.322.2890.4889.800.261.81
NorthwesternB100.252.2755.0051.330.030.06
IowaB100.462.2547.6244.95-0.02-0.23
MinnesotaB100.382.2263.6458.800.100.39
Penn St.B100.192.2261.9057.300.040.32
North CarolinaACC2.691.7784.2177.551.840.98
Notre DameACC2.691.7766.6763.160.900.47
Stony BrookAE2.761.7541.1848.35-0.49-0.06
DukeACC2.571.7588.8984.702.001.21
DePaulBE2.571.7244.4435.50-0.29-0.50
Cleveland St.Horz2.691.7221.0524.16-1.56-0.89
Long Beach St.BW2.641.6742.1144.83-0.42-0.17
OaklandHorz2.561.6765.0067.340.770.58
Southern UtahBSky2.561.6740.0035.08-0.51-0.50
ConnecticutAmer2.571.6455.5648.970.29-0.03
North FloridaASun2.561.6433.3336.46-0.85-0.44
Houston BaptistSlnd2.501.616.2520.09-2.19-0.96
Savannah St.MEAC2.501.6129.4135.73-1.03-0.46
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.1921.0523.50-0.15-0.10
SyracuseACC0.250.1868.4261.270.090.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.180.003.12-0.13-0.17
DetroitHorz0.260.1621.0525.98-0.15-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.310.1646.6746.98-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.200.1675.0067.890.100.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.330.169.5217.94-0.27-0.10
Virginia TechACC0.070.1668.4257.780.030.02
ButlerBE0.190.1666.6763.070.060.04
VirginiaACC0.130.1694.4485.440.120.11
Wake ForestACC0.130.1644.4441.15-0.01-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.1677.7869.360.070.06
Green BayHorz0.120.1625.0027.94-0.06-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1645.0047.05-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1668.4257.770.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.210.1470.0060.460.080.03
Miami FLACC0.130.1376.4769.020.070.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1323.5332.62-0.10-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.260.1342.1132.48-0.04-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.260.1373.6869.610.120.05
Georgia TechACC0.190.1352.6343.120.01-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1342.1145.97-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1368.4255.060.070.01
IUPUIHorz0.060.1327.7829.84-0.03-0.05
MarquetteBE0.070.1368.4260.530.020.03
ClemsonACC0.190.1384.2173.210.130.06
PittsburghACC0.130.1340.0030.87-0.03-0.05
NJITASun0.200.1138.8942.60-0.04-0.02
MissouriSEC0.130.1166.6763.200.040.03
HartfordAE0.200.1152.6346.880.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.1158.8258.360.010.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1127.7831.670.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.000.1129.4130.670.00-0.04
BucknellPat0.190.1161.9068.010.050.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.260.1152.3848.520.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1189.4785.520.100.08
Wichita St.Amer0.200.1178.9577.360.120.06
CreightonBE0.060.1175.0070.690.030.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1166.6773.240.040.05
Wright St.Horz0.060.1168.4269.240.020.04
XavierBE0.070.1185.7180.080.050.06
SouthernSWAC0.070.1127.7840.97-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.130.1147.3742.18-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1052.6351.730.000.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0970.5973.140.030.04
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0833.3333.80-0.04-0.03
Oregon St.P120.200.0857.8950.810.030.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0873.6865.280.040.03
LipscombASun0.070.0852.9459.360.000.02
StetsonASun0.060.0833.3336.92-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0811.1117.96-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.200.0861.1158.750.040.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0818.7536.76-0.04-0.02
LSUSEC0.190.0861.1153.160.040.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0844.4442.74-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.140.0810.5327.31-0.11-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0815.7920.92-0.09-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0843.7554.090.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.080.009.15-0.13-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0827.7831.12-0.06-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.130.0817.6523.89-0.08-0.04
BaylorB120.070.0861.1156.090.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.140.0820.0032.26-0.08-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0810.5316.75-0.10-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.130.0852.6351.700.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0835.0026.14-0.02-0.04
VillanovaBE0.130.0894.7490.310.120.06
ArizonaP120.130.0880.0078.980.080.05
StanfordP120.180.0855.0050.370.020.00
UCLAP120.060.0865.0062.040.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.0868.4264.200.050.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0830.0032.53-0.02-0.03
UCFAmer0.130.0868.4260.880.050.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0868.4270.810.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.03-0.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.080.0664.7166.850.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0611.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0656.2557.400.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.250.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.067.6920.090.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.850.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0628.5731.27-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0650.0051.480.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0643.7549.10-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.280.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.0662.5058.700.040.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.0610.5318.34-0.11-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0610.0019.62-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0629.4134.76-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.070.0658.8263.210.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.0642.1144.97-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0644.4448.91-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.0652.9455.040.010.01
VCUA100.130.0660.0059.690.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0670.0068.050.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.76-0.04-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.86-0.05-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0629.4138.150.00-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0673.6877.120.030.03
FloridaSEC0.130.0573.6871.550.060.02
New OrleansSlnd0.130.0537.5045.22-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.130.0541.1839.65-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.130.0568.7563.620.050.01
BrownIvy0.070.0550.0045.130.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0516.6724.29-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0583.3381.350.050.03
St. Francis PANEC0.140.0552.9459.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0568.4263.980.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.130.0564.7159.980.040.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0544.4445.980.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.130.059.5217.08-0.11-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0523.5328.210.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0556.2556.810.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0517.6519.33-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.130.0531.5829.06-0.05-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0541.1843.41-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0568.4254.090.020.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0570.0071.230.000.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0568.7563.960.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0544.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0538.8943.43-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0517.6517.230.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0568.4263.640.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0545.0048.56-0.01-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0583.3384.230.000.04
OhioMAC0.060.0547.0648.44-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0566.6768.700.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0526.3231.520.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0557.8953.190.010.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0558.8262.450.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0530.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0570.5969.610.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.0547.0641.45-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0557.1453.220.010.00
OregonP120.130.0565.0063.830.040.01
PortlandWCC0.130.0527.7827.30-0.06-0.02
TexasB120.130.0563.1657.620.030.01
ToledoMAC0.120.0566.6767.690.040.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0550.0051.360.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.120.0552.9452.230.010.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0555.0049.070.00-0.00
KansasB120.120.0584.2179.740.080.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0565.0058.490.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0572.2268.920.030.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.0521.0544.26-0.07-0.01
TulaneAmer0.130.0563.1657.900.030.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0555.0053.290.010.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0538.8935.35-0.01-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0541.1847.510.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.970.050.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.460.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.620.000.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.650.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0345.0049.270.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.860.000.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.440.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.360.020.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0357.8959.470.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0340.0042.57-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.710.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.21-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0366.6763.420.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.0322.2228.670.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.900.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0330.0033.490.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0384.2178.170.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4258.990.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.030.050.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.160.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0343.7545.340.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.070.0350.0051.040.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0360.0053.730.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0358.8261.440.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.94-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.140.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.680.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.350.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.490.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0380.9583.260.040.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.120.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0337.5046.630.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0361.1147.260.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0321.0521.99-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7840.88-0.03-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0344.4446.64-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.180.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0341.1839.130.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0361.1160.790.010.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0365.0065.370.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0357.1460.400.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.790.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0070.630.000.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0372.2272.970.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0335.2940.480.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.1666.000.020.01
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0366.6766.010.020.01