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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:23.7
Current RPI:202
Expected SOS:57
Current SOS:162
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:50
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-12.10.08%
27-24.20.99%
26-36.64.68%
25-49.710.39%
24-513.917.20%
23-619.020.11%
22-725.419.16%
21-832.713.55%
20-942.07.72%
19-1052.93.90%
18-1164.61.62%
17-1282.20.46%
16-13100.60.12%
15-14112.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Florida (249.2)ASunH98-66W100%0.0
11-14Duke (6.8)ACCN81-88L0%0.0
11-19Stony Brook (185.8)AEH0-098%23.7
11-23DePaul (198.3)BEN0-092%16.9
11-30Notre Dame (31.0)ACCH0-064%4.4
12-3Nebraska (165.0)B10H0-094%18.4
12-5Rutgers (181.4)B10A0-085%12.6
12-9Southern Utah (304.1)BSkyH0-0100%32.8
12-16Oakland (109.5)HorzN0-088%14.4
12-18Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-099%29.0
12-21Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-096%21.0
12-29Cleveland St. (268.1)HorzH0-099%28.4
12-31Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH0-0100%36.9
1-4Maryland (25.7)B10H0-071%6.7
1-7Ohio St. (85.4)B10A0-069%6.1
1-10Rutgers (181.4)B10H0-094%18.6
1-13Michigan (60.4)B10H0-079%9.7
1-19Indiana (137.3)B10H0-091%15.9
1-22Illinois (84.8)B10A0-071%6.7
1-26Wisconsin (36.5)B10H0-070%6.4
1-28Maryland (25.7)B10A0-052%0.7
1-31Penn St. (87.4)B10H0-086%13.2
2-3Indiana (137.3)B10A0-080%9.9
2-6Iowa (98.1)B10A0-070%6.2
2-10Purdue (9.2)B10H0-049%-0.2
2-13Minnesota (39.3)B10A0-053%0.8
2-17Northwestern (80.7)B10A0-068%5.8
2-20Illinois (84.8)B10H0-085%12.7
2-25Wisconsin (36.5)B10A0-051%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1030.6326.1537.5075.67-7.6613.42
IllinoisB100.004.15100.0061.920.000.99
IndianaB100.004.1233.3343.110.00-0.57
RutgersB100.004.12100.0049.490.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.004.0666.6768.960.001.54
MarylandB100.004.06100.0074.230.001.97
NorthwesternB100.002.4575.0055.880.000.29
PurdueB100.002.45100.0086.590.001.79
NebraskaB100.002.4566.6741.280.00-0.43
MichiganB102.502.43100.0063.172.500.64
IowaB100.002.42100.0059.250.000.45
Ohio St.B100.002.42100.0060.920.000.53
Penn St.B100.002.40100.0062.010.000.58
MinnesotaB100.002.40100.0072.520.001.08
DePaulBE0.001.8433.3332.160.00-0.66
Notre DameACC0.001.84100.0075.140.000.93
Stony BrookAE0.001.840.0049.010.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8433.3334.700.00-0.56
DukeACC25.001.81100.0082.9925.001.20
Southern UtahBSky0.001.7833.3328.130.00-0.78
OaklandHorz0.001.7866.6767.430.000.62
Long Beach St.BW0.001.7650.0052.810.000.10
North FloridaASun25.001.750.0038.05-25.00-0.42
Houston BaptistSlnd0.001.720.0040.430.00-0.33
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.720.0026.070.00-0.83
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.007.670.00-0.17
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.200.0027.250.00-0.09
North CarolinaACC0.000.18100.0078.160.000.10
Seton HallBE0.000.18100.0067.950.000.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.17100.0053.280.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.170.0044.830.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.17100.0060.010.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1575.0061.940.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.1575.0064.570.000.04
ButlerBE0.000.1575.0052.360.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0074.140.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1550.0050.870.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.15100.0062.240.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.15100.0066.990.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1525.0035.000.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0022.840.00-0.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.150.0044.950.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1450.0048.410.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.140.0029.290.00-0.06
IUPUIHorz0.000.140.0032.200.00-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1275.0045.290.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0067.460.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.120.0057.520.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0054.590.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0054.680.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0074.500.000.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1266.6757.890.000.02
NJITASun0.000.1233.3333.210.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0034.040.00-0.04
XavierBE0.000.12100.0078.990.000.07
PittsburghACC0.000.1233.3334.560.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.120.0052.900.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.12100.0068.200.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.1225.0040.490.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.1233.3326.430.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC3.120.120.0044.63-3.12-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1250.0042.730.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.11100.0070.960.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.110.0041.210.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0950.0060.130.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0933.3345.540.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0029.620.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0933.3349.220.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0933.3333.620.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.0933.3331.840.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.09100.0054.960.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0028.770.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.09100.0064.720.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.090.0039.010.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.090.0061.460.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0022.610.00-0.05
BaylorB120.000.09100.0061.110.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0049.250.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0925.0038.080.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3342.010.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3334.490.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6756.330.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.080.0023.260.00-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.170.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6742.260.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0044.130.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0048.130.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0035.130.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.060.0040.830.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0058.070.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.500.0625.0047.80-1.25-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0666.6757.400.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3353.300.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3350.220.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.06100.0039.920.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0042.810.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0082.350.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.06100.0072.510.000.03
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0044.500.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.060.0013.450.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.060.0048.110.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0666.6774.120.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.06100.0082.910.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0050.360.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0029.880.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.060.0030.230.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0036.830.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0066.490.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0021.010.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0083.700.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.700.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0333.3357.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
FloridaSEC2.500.03100.0080.232.500.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.03100.0064.470.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
VCUA102.500.0366.6766.590.830.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0028.720.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3341.010.00-0.01
ElonCAA3.120.0333.3350.84-1.040.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.030.0038.210.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.030.0037.310.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC3.120.0350.0060.430.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.03100.0060.370.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0066.710.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02