Michigan St.

Conference:	B10
Expected RPI:	9.0
Current RPI:	9
Expected SOS:	3
Current SOS:	3
Current Record:	24-8
Expected Record:	24-8
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	21
Expected OOC SOS:	50

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-8	9.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	N	66-62	L	0%
11-13	Kansas (5.0)	B12	N	64-67	W	100%
11-18	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	69-41	W	100%
11-20	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	74-70	W	100%
11-23	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	70-52	W	100%
11-25	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	63-60	W	100%
11-28	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	A	67-59	L	0%
12-1	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	84-39	W	100%
12-5	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	76-44	W	100%
12-8	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	73-61	W	100%
12-18	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	53-64	W	100%
12-22	Texas (116.0)	B12	H	67-56	W	100%
12-31	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	A	76-63	L	0%
1-5	Purdue (136.0)	B10	H	84-61	W	100%
1-10	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	59-62	W	100%
1-13	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	H	66-56	W	100%
1-16	Penn St. (186.0)	B10	A	72-81	W	100%
1-19	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	H	59-56	W	100%
1-22	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	47-49	W	100%
1-27	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	75-70	L	0%
1-31	Illinois (40.0)	B10	H	80-75	W	100%
2-6	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	H	61-50	W	100%
2-9	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	65-78	W	100%
2-12	Michigan (20.0)	B10	H	75-52	W	100%
2-16	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	64-73	W	100%
2-19	Indiana (8.0)	B10	H	68-72	L	0%
2-24	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	68-60	L	0%
3-3	Michigan (20.0)	B10	A	58-57	L	0%
3-7	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	H	58-43	W	100%
3-10	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	H	71-61	W	100%
3-15	Iowa (79.0)	B10	N	59-56	W	100%
3-16	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	N	61-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Michigan St.	B10	26.26	26.26	75.76	75.76	13.53	13.53
Ohio St.	B10	5.45	5.45	80.00	80.00	3.27	3.27
Wisconsin	B10	3.99	3.99	71.88	71.88	1.74	1.74
Nebraska	B10	3.96	3.96	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
Indiana	B10	3.92	3.92	80.65	80.65	2.40	2.40
Iowa	B10	3.87	3.87	67.74	67.74	1.37	1.37
Michigan	B10	3.87	3.87	80.00	80.00	2.32	2.32
Purdue	B10	3.82	3.82	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	3.81	3.81	63.33	63.33	1.02	1.02
Illinois	B10	2.45	2.45	65.62	65.62	0.77	0.77
Northwestern	B10	2.40	2.40	41.94	41.94	-0.39	-0.39
Penn St.	B10	2.37	2.37	33.33	33.33	-0.79	-0.79
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Kansas	B12	1.68	1.68	87.88	87.88	1.27	1.27
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Oakland	Sum	1.64	1.64	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	1.64	1.64	67.86	67.86	0.59	0.59
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.61	1.61	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
Texas	B12	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	1.56	1.56	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Connecticut	BE	1.56	1.56	65.52	65.52	0.48	0.48
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.56	1.56	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	1.56	1.56	81.25	81.25	0.98	0.98
West Virginia	B12	0.22	0.22	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Central Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Duke	ACC	0.17	0.17	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	17.86	17.86	-0.08	-0.08
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01