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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:18.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:13
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:86



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-818.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH98-56W100%0.0
11-12Kentucky (17.0)SECN78-74W100%0.0
11-15Columbia (130.0)IvyH62-53W100%0.0
11-18Portland (178.0)WCCH82-67W100%0.0
11-22Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCN96-77W100%0.0
11-23Oklahoma (26.0)B12N87-76W100%0.0
11-29Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH98-65W100%0.0
12-4North Carolina (25.0)ACCH65-79L0%0.0
12-14Oakland (181.0)HorzN67-63W100%0.0
12-17North Florida (189.0)ASunH78-48W100%0.0
12-21Texas (36.0)B12A78-92W100%0.0
12-28New Orleans (260.0)SlndH101-48W100%0.0
12-31Penn St. (114.0)B10A63-79W100%0.0
1-4Indiana (102.0)B10A56-73W100%0.0
1-7Ohio St. (24.0)B10H72-68W100%0.0
1-11Minnesota (50.0)B10H87-75W100%0.0
1-15Northwestern (123.0)B10A40-54W100%0.0
1-18Illinois (70.0)B10A62-78W100%0.0
1-21Indiana (102.0)B10H71-66W100%0.0
1-25Michigan (11.0)B10H75-80L0%0.0
1-28Iowa (56.0)B10A69-71W100%0.0
2-1Georgetown (69.0)BEN64-60L0%0.0
2-6Penn St. (114.0)B10H82-67W100%0.0
2-9Wisconsin (6.0)B10A60-58L0%0.0
2-13Northwestern (123.0)B10H85-70W100%0.0
2-16Nebraska (48.0)B10H51-60L0%0.0
2-20Purdue (145.0)B10A79-94W100%0.0
2-23Michigan (11.0)B10A79-70L0%0.0
3-1Illinois (70.0)B10H46-53L0%0.0
3-6Iowa (56.0)B10H86-76W100%0.0
3-9Ohio St. (24.0)B10A69-67L0%0.0
3-14Northwestern (123.0)B10N67-51W100%0.0
3-15Wisconsin (6.0)B10N75-83W100%0.0
3-16Michigan (11.0)B10N55-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.3326.3374.0774.0712.6812.68
MichiganB105.125.1276.6776.672.732.73
NorthwesternB105.085.0846.6746.67-0.34-0.34
IndianaB103.763.7656.6756.670.500.50
IllinoisB103.743.7458.0658.060.600.60
IowaB103.723.7265.5265.521.161.16
Ohio St.B103.723.7275.0075.001.861.86
WisconsinB103.713.7180.6580.652.282.28
Penn St.B103.623.6250.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB102.382.3861.2961.290.540.54
NebraskaB102.302.3060.0060.000.460.46
PurdueB102.282.2848.3948.39-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC1.561.5670.9770.970.660.66
North FloridaASun1.561.5648.2848.28-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd1.551.5538.1038.10-0.37-0.37
OaklandHorz1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
TexasB121.541.5471.8871.880.670.67
McNeese St.Slnd1.541.5426.9226.92-0.71-0.71
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
OklahomaB121.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
PortlandWCC1.501.5050.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy1.491.4962.0762.070.360.36
KentuckySEC1.491.4972.7372.730.680.68
Virginia TechACC1.491.4930.0030.00-0.60-0.60
GeorgetownBE1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
West VirginiaB120.230.2353.1253.120.010.01
Notre DameACC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.200.2078.7978.790.120.12
Houston BaptistSlnd0.180.1814.8114.81-0.12-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
DePaulBE0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
BaylorB120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
PennIvy0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
DukeACC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
MarquetteBE0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
FloridaSEC0.130.1394.1294.120.120.12
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
StanfordP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
MissouriSEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
PittsburghACC0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
BryantNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
LipscombASun0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0710.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.040.0485.2985.290.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0470.9770.970.020.02
IPFWSum0.040.0467.7467.740.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.0430.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.040.0480.6580.650.030.03
UNLVMWC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0434.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0478.5778.570.020.02
WyomingMWC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.020.023.573.57-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00