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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:298
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20277.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9St. Bonaventure (139.0)A10A65-55L0%0.0
11-13Tulane (175.0)CUSAA65-55L0%0.0
11-15New Orleans (346.0)indA65-71W100%0.0
11-20Kent St. (131.0)MACA69-68L0%0.0
11-23Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumN81-93W100%0.0
11-24Valparaiso (58.0)HorzA77-64L0%0.0
11-27North Florida (230.0)ASunH65-71L0%0.0
12-1Florida A&M (331.0)MEACA75-67L0%0.0
12-3Stetson (220.0)ASunH86-63W100%0.0
12-12Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA72-62L0%0.0
12-15Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA89-40L0%0.0
12-21Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH51-67L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA79-63L0%0.0
1-7Florida International (111.0)SBA74-72L0%0.0
1-12North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH72-60W100%0.0
1-14North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH66-75L0%0.0
1-19South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACA52-60W100%0.0
1-21Savannah St. (166.0)MEACA43-40L0%0.0
1-26Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH52-68L0%0.0
1-28Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACH58-57W100%0.0
2-2Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH67-65W100%0.0
2-9North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACA65-55L0%0.0
2-11North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACA81-75L0%0.0
2-18Howard (334.0)MEACH64-50W100%0.0
2-23South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH85-75W100%0.0
2-25Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH72-58W100%0.0
3-2Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACA62-61L0%0.0
3-4Hampton (287.0)MEACA75-66L0%0.0
3-7Coppin St. (313.0)MEACA69-61L0%0.0
3-12Coppin St. (313.0)MEACN89-78W100%0.0
3-13Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACA68-70W100%0.0
3-15Morgan St. (236.0)MEACN82-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1926.1940.0040.00-5.24-5.24
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.923.9253.1253.120.240.24
Florida A&MMEAC3.873.8718.5218.52-2.44-2.44
Savannah St.MEAC3.863.8655.1755.170.400.40
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.763.7665.3865.381.161.16
South Carolina St.MEAC3.763.7615.3815.38-2.60-2.60
Coppin St.MEAC3.663.6620.6920.69-2.15-2.15
Norfolk St.MEAC3.663.6666.6766.671.221.22
Morgan St.MEAC2.362.3651.6151.610.080.08
Delaware St.MEAC2.252.2540.0040.00-0.45-0.45
HowardMEAC2.232.2321.4321.43-1.28-1.28
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.202.207.417.41-1.87-1.87
HamptonMEAC2.182.1843.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Central FloridaCUSA1.741.7460.7160.710.370.37
North FloridaASun1.741.7436.6736.67-0.46-0.46
StetsonASun1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Florida InternationalSB1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
ValparaisoHorz1.641.6477.4277.420.900.90
PittsburghBE1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
Youngstown St.Horz1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
TulaneCUSA1.621.6254.8454.840.160.16
Kent St.MAC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Nebraska OmahaSum1.591.5935.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Louisiana St.SEC1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
New Orleansind1.561.5619.0519.05-0.97-0.97
St. BonaventureA101.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.230.2348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1810.0010.00-0.15-0.15
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
South FloridaBE0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1571.4371.430.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.1584.8584.850.100.10
Seton HallBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
WagnerNEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
HoustonCUSA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MemphisCUSA0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
FloridaSEC0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.130.1353.8553.850.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistGWC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.120.1280.6580.650.080.08
CincinnatiBE0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MarylandACC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
MissouriSEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Arizona St.P120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
OaklandSum0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.100.1038.4638.46-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
AmericanPat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
UABCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckySB0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.WAC0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
TroySB0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0453.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Notre DameBE0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas San AntonioWAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01