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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:287.3
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:351
Current Record:9-9
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:5-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-10
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9222.40.05%
19-10231.21.26%
18-11246.15.40%
17-12260.913.80%
16-13276.623.11%
15-14291.925.34%
14-15306.418.23%
13-16318.48.90%
12-17329.23.00%
11-18337.00.85%
10-19340.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACA92-74L0%0.0
11-16North Texas (217.7)CUSAA90-78L0%0.0
11-19Georgia Tech (145.6)ACCA65-62L0%0.0
11-21Grambling St. (286.7)SWACH87-78W100%0.0
11-30Jacksonville (300.2)ASunA66-77W100%0.0
12-2Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAA93-75L0%0.0
12-8Boston University (202.6)PatH87-90L0%0.0
12-12Cal Poly (282.2)BWH67-53W100%0.0
12-14South Florida (296.0)AmerA83-63L0%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA81-74L0%0.0
12-19Washington (77.2)P12A106-55L0%0.0
12-22Washington St. (167.1)P12A86-58L0%0.0
1-3South Carolina St. (325.8)MEACH86-80W100%0.0
1-6Howard (331.0)MEACA87-92W100%0.0
1-8Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACA84-89W100%0.0
1-13Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH99-81W100%0.0
1-15Stetson (305.8)ASunA62-74W100%0.0
1-20Delaware St. (350.2)MEACA78-85W100%0.0
1-27Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACA0-036%-4.0
1-29Hampton (287.5)MEACA0-027%-6.7
2-3Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH0-081%9.6
2-5Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACH0-059%2.4
2-10Maryland Eastern Shore (334.5)MEACH0-083%10.6
2-12North Carolina Central (268.1)MEACH0-048%-0.6
2-17Coppin St. (342.3)MEACA0-061%3.2
2-19Morgan St. (312.1)MEACA0-042%-2.1
2-24Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH0-069%5.5
2-26North Carolina A&T (240.7)MEACH0-056%1.7
3-1Florida A&M (340.4)MEACA0-059%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.3526.1060.2658.225.414.29
Coppin St.MEAC0.143.999.5217.18-0.12-2.62
Florida A&MMEAC3.003.9910.5319.55-2.37-2.43
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.853.9616.6721.84-1.90-2.23
Norfolk St.MEAC0.083.9518.7535.54-0.05-1.14
South Carolina St.MEAC3.072.3829.4132.80-1.27-0.82
Morgan St.MEAC0.212.3729.4138.93-0.09-0.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.222.3555.5657.170.020.34
HamptonMEAC0.222.3520.0040.57-0.13-0.44
HowardMEAC2.992.3411.1128.28-2.33-1.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.152.3327.7834.63-0.06-0.72
Delaware St.MEAC2.922.320.009.47-2.92-1.88
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.152.3243.7554.17-0.020.19
Georgia TechACC3.071.9250.0041.220.00-0.34
JacksonvilleASun2.931.9135.2935.10-0.86-0.57
Kennesaw St.ASun3.001.8811.7622.03-2.30-1.05
StetsonASun2.921.8835.2938.34-0.86-0.44
North TexasCUSA2.991.8741.1844.74-0.53-0.20
South FloridaAmer3.011.8531.5823.68-1.11-0.97
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC3.001.8442.1143.06-0.47-0.26
WashingtonP122.931.8168.4260.151.080.37
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.851.8133.3335.29-0.95-0.53
Grambling St.SWAC3.001.8138.8945.64-0.67-0.16
Washington St.P122.851.7847.0640.19-0.17-0.35
Boston UniversityPat2.781.7247.0651.43-0.160.05
Cal PolyBW2.781.7225.0029.25-1.39-0.72
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2770.0071.230.080.11
North FloridaASun0.220.2531.5835.15-0.08-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.300.2468.4254.090.110.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.2257.8966.250.040.07
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2178.9576.760.140.11
East CarolinaAmer0.290.2042.1132.48-0.05-0.07
LipscombASun0.230.1952.9459.360.010.04
NJITASun0.150.1938.8942.60-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.1911.1117.96-0.12-0.12
FIUCUSA0.230.1835.2935.57-0.07-0.05
SeattleWAC0.370.1857.8954.500.060.02
OregonP120.000.1765.0063.830.000.05
RiceCUSA0.150.1511.1117.69-0.11-0.10
DuquesneA100.220.1570.0058.100.090.02
AmericanPat0.220.1526.3228.14-0.11-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.310.1533.3334.11-0.10-0.05
NavyPat0.080.1560.0055.160.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.140.1527.7840.97-0.06-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.140.1468.4257.780.050.02
CaliforniaP120.230.1436.8431.12-0.06-0.05
StanfordP120.230.1455.0050.370.020.00
CharlotteCUSA0.230.1223.5325.63-0.12-0.06
UC DavisBW0.150.1258.8262.450.030.03
UCFAmer0.220.1268.4260.880.080.03
VirginiaACC0.070.1294.4485.440.060.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1238.8943.43-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.220.1270.0070.630.090.05
ConnecticutAmer0.080.1152.6347.390.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.220.1176.4769.020.120.04
UCLAP120.300.1165.0062.040.090.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1189.4785.520.050.08
ColoradoP120.150.1160.0053.730.030.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1157.8950.810.000.00
UtahP120.070.1161.1158.950.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0945.0043.49-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0968.4263.640.000.03
Texas TechB120.160.0978.9571.810.090.04
UABCUSA0.160.0961.1164.130.040.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0917.6519.33-0.05-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0931.5832.72-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0911.1115.30-0.11-0.06
NebraskaB100.230.0966.6759.780.080.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0957.8953.190.020.01
UTSACUSA0.160.0941.1839.65-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.150.0968.7563.960.060.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0963.1657.540.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.150.0930.0039.93-0.06-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.230.0960.0062.030.050.02
Arkansas St.SB0.230.0927.7831.12-0.10-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0968.4257.770.060.01
YaleIvy0.230.0941.1847.51-0.04-0.00
LibertyBSth0.150.0952.9457.320.010.01
Green BayHorz0.150.0925.0027.94-0.07-0.04
MercerSC0.150.0944.4454.89-0.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0942.1144.970.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0984.2178.170.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0916.6724.29-0.05-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0921.0544.26-0.09-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0952.3848.520.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0984.2173.210.000.04
UMBCAE0.070.0958.8258.360.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0641.1843.41-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.350.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0670.0068.420.030.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0665.0065.370.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.1143.500.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.1666.000.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0644.4442.74-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.150.0652.6351.700.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.360.030.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0642.1145.97-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0628.5731.27-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0672.2274.700.040.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0635.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0664.7159.980.000.01
ArmyPat0.080.0661.1160.530.020.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0689.4777.030.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0658.8249.760.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0661.9068.010.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0656.2556.810.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0650.0051.040.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0626.3230.43-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.860.00-0.01
LehighPat0.080.0638.8944.75-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.260.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0043.340.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0677.7871.650.000.03
Loyola MDPat0.080.0622.2228.67-0.04-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.220.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0657.1460.400.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0638.8946.680.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0617.6523.890.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0670.5969.610.030.02
LafayettePat0.000.0622.2227.510.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.0666.6765.620.050.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0633.3337.22-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.610.040.02
Wright St.Horz0.150.0668.4269.240.060.02
IdahoBSky0.160.0664.7166.850.050.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.22-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.120.00-0.06
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.690.040.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.160.040.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0670.0068.220.030.02
MarylandB100.070.0670.0065.320.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0683.3384.230.000.04
PennIvy0.150.0664.7162.780.040.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0629.4127.74-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.700.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.980.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.067.6923.28-0.12-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.71-0.04-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.010.020.02
ElonCAA0.150.0652.6351.090.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0668.4255.060.030.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.140.0680.9583.260.090.04
IndianaB100.140.0657.8950.680.020.00
PittsburghACC0.150.0640.0030.87-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0678.9577.360.040.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0612.5025.47-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0630.0036.480.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0010.650.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0539.47-0.04-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0680.0078.980.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0678.9576.130.000.03
USCP120.150.0671.4368.300.060.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0661.1158.750.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0620.0023.360.00-0.03
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0678.9572.990.040.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0665.0058.490.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.940.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.930.030.03
Notre DameACC0.150.0663.1661.050.040.01
OhioMAC0.000.0647.0648.440.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0661.9055.770.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0657.8947.140.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0680.0078.860.040.03
TexasB120.070.0663.1657.620.020.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0663.1657.900.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0655.0053.290.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0673.6865.280.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0644.4441.150.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0366.6763.070.030.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.130.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0338.8944.14-0.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.470.010.01
IllinoisB100.000.0347.3744.270.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0347.3748.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0345.0047.05-0.01-0.00
MinnesotaB100.090.0363.6457.640.020.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0341.1839.13-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.080.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0326.3231.520.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0370.0068.050.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0362.5058.700.020.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0366.6763.420.030.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
MaineAE0.080.0310.5314.86-0.06-0.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0363.1663.180.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0333.3332.96-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0329.4130.67-0.03-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0320.0028.72-0.05-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.500.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0054.850.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0383.3381.350.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0385.0083.180.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.480.000.00
OklahomaB120.080.0377.7867.900.040.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0361.1160.790.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0352.6350.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0318.7518.400.00-0.02
TroySB0.070.0335.2942.76-0.02-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0346.6758.78-0.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0350.0046.260.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0343.7540.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.080.0327.7829.84-0.03-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0326.6729.04-0.03-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0350.0051.650.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0390.4888.940.060.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0358.8262.830.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.690.010.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.650.030.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.03-0.02-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.930.020.00
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.740.050.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0327.7829.11-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.140.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.050.040.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.460.030.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.270.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.730.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.920.030.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.620.030.01