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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:302.6
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:339
Current SOS:319
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15243.20.32%
13-16261.94.60%
12-17279.815.95%
11-18296.128.34%
10-19311.029.50%
9-20323.816.21%
8-21333.94.65%
7-22340.40.42%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Tennessee Martin (241.1)OVCA79-86W100%0.0
11-21Richmond (108.7)A10A89-64L0%0.0
11-23West Virginia (8.7)B12A97-44L0%0.0
11-26Stetson (305.1)ASunN83-70L0%0.0
11-27Sam Houston St. (188.6)SlndN46-71L0%0.0
12-7South Carolina St. (210.4)MEACH69-54W100%0.0
12-12Akron (35.0)MACA81-60L0%0.0
12-16The Citadel (303.5)SCH87-99L0%0.0
12-19Toledo (147.0)MACA102-68L0%0.0
12-22UCF (193.1)AmerA101-96L0%0.0
12-28Brown (291.8)IvyA81-73L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville (242.5)ASunA74-70L0%0.0
1-3Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA74-53L0%0.0
1-9Hampton (201.5)MEACA75-70L0%0.0
1-11Norfolk St. (212.3)MEACA70-72W100%0.0
1-16Coppin St. (321.3)MEACH54-62L0%0.0
1-18Morgan St. (329.8)MEACH62-50W100%0.0
1-23Maryland Eastern Shore (267.6)MEACA74-72L0%0.0
1-26Howard (290.3)MEACA70-68L0%0.0
1-30Florida A&M (348.6)MEACH88-56W100%0.0
2-2Savannah St. (333.7)MEACH62-59W100%0.0
2-6Delaware St. (348.0)MEACH85-56W100%0.0
2-13North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACA0-035%-4.2
2-15North Carolina A&T (334.7)MEACA0-049%-0.4
2-20Florida A&M (348.6)MEACA0-069%5.3
2-22Stetson (305.1)ASunA0-039%-3.1
2-27North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACH0-059%2.5
2-29North Carolina A&T (334.7)MEACH0-072%6.2
3-3South Carolina St. (210.4)MEACA0-027%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1826.2233.7240.63-8.52-4.91
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.544.0929.1732.66-0.22-1.42
South Carolina St.MEAC2.764.0452.3854.570.130.37
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.434.0125.0031.57-0.22-1.48
Florida A&MMEAC2.654.0122.2224.26-1.47-2.07
StetsonASun2.593.6320.0023.45-1.55-1.93
Savannah St.MEAC2.602.4536.8437.42-0.68-0.62
Delaware St.MEAC2.592.3810.0014.00-2.07-1.72
HamptonMEAC2.712.3555.0057.910.270.37
Norfolk St.MEAC2.612.3242.8651.03-0.370.05
Morgan St.MEAC2.662.3221.0527.73-1.54-1.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.602.2827.2732.79-1.18-0.79
Coppin St.MEAC2.702.2810.5319.25-2.13-1.40
HowardMEAC2.542.2535.0038.54-0.76-0.52
JacksonvilleASun2.491.9847.6247.93-0.12-0.08
AkronMAC2.431.8580.9579.341.511.08
West VirginiaB122.381.8281.8278.871.511.05
RichmondA102.381.8252.3852.920.110.11
ToledoMAC2.321.8157.1458.690.330.31
The CitadelSC2.331.7930.0028.76-0.93-0.76
UCFAmer2.331.7950.0043.770.00-0.22
Grand CanyonWAC2.381.7981.8280.441.521.09
BrownIvy2.271.7227.7828.40-1.01-0.74
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.271.7242.1147.44-0.36-0.09
Tennessee MartinOVC2.271.7250.0051.940.000.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.2921.7423.40-0.12-0.15
USC UpstateASun0.160.2822.7323.25-0.09-0.15
North FloridaASun0.220.2665.2267.140.070.09
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2443.4842.01-0.03-0.04
HoustonAmer0.110.2369.5766.510.040.07
LipscombASun0.160.2225.0029.27-0.08-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.210.2131.8230.48-0.08-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1947.6252.07-0.010.01
NJITASun0.110.1954.1755.250.010.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.260.1952.0050.250.010.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1828.5731.89-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.260.1860.8758.470.060.03
Central MichiganMAC0.210.1850.0051.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1759.0958.880.020.03
FIUCUSA0.160.1640.9145.30-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1666.6762.620.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.1550.0051.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.260.1556.5262.780.030.04
Ball St.MAC0.150.1563.6459.240.040.03
Texas TechB120.210.1559.0953.120.040.01
FloridaSEC0.150.1565.2266.090.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1433.3335.09-0.05-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.1463.6459.440.010.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1331.5831.80-0.04-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.170.1352.1751.940.010.01
SamfordSC0.110.1339.1341.32-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1336.8438.39-0.04-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.1359.0959.440.010.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.170.1340.0039.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.1340.9143.53-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.170.1372.2274.710.070.06
SMUAmer0.220.1390.9186.130.180.09
South FloridaAmer0.220.1220.0019.66-0.13-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.160.1266.6765.210.050.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1236.8441.44-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1233.3335.48-0.05-0.03
OhioMAC0.150.1261.9059.430.040.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1163.1658.790.040.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1015.0027.26-0.08-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1072.0070.510.050.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1047.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.1016.6720.13-0.03-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.050.1065.0066.790.010.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.1040.9140.65-0.01-0.02
IPFWSum0.110.1070.8368.570.040.04
CampbellBSth0.170.0928.5729.65-0.07-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0921.0527.82-0.03-0.04
CornellIvy0.110.0942.1140.16-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0935.0038.52-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.170.0965.2262.880.050.02
LamarSlnd0.110.0931.5831.96-0.04-0.03
PennIvy0.110.0938.8937.66-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.0966.6767.690.040.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.0963.6460.940.030.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.0972.7371.620.070.04
UMKCWAC0.100.0928.5732.71-0.04-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.0914.2915.46-0.11-0.06
WoffordSC0.100.0940.9145.38-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.110.0955.0052.290.010.00
DuquesneA100.050.0963.6456.430.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.0922.7324.97-0.06-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.0971.4368.970.040.03
CincinnatiAmer0.110.0970.8370.840.050.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.0917.3920.66-0.06-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0924.0024.57-0.03-0.05
MassachusettsA100.160.0940.9139.36-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.110.0963.6459.840.030.02
BaylorB120.110.0972.7366.500.050.03
Iowa St.B120.110.0973.9170.060.050.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0934.7840.92-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0979.1776.550.030.05
DavidsonA100.110.0960.0057.960.020.01
George WashingtonA100.110.0978.2674.420.060.04
James MadisonCAA0.150.0970.8369.500.060.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0952.3847.040.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0947.8344.37-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.100.0943.4837.22-0.01-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0954.1749.270.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0760.8760.240.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0771.4368.710.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0738.1037.44-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.110.0665.2259.750.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.0626.0929.20-0.05-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0631.5831.79-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0652.6350.220.000.00
MaristMAAC0.110.0622.7324.73-0.06-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.260.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0614.2917.92-0.08-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0670.5975.550.020.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0675.0071.500.030.03
YaleIvy0.120.0673.6874.650.060.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0642.8639.19-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.110.0634.7830.36-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0654.5550.110.010.00
UtahP120.110.0669.5767.480.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.110.0671.4369.840.050.02
AmericanPat0.100.0630.4331.89-0.04-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.0654.1752.340.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0625.0024.36-0.05-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.13-0.08-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0686.3685.030.080.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.73-0.05-0.05
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
MercerSC0.110.0672.7370.750.050.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0665.2268.610.030.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0658.3354.160.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0615.7917.42-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0628.5731.36-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.0656.5256.610.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.100.0624.0026.41-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0625.0026.87-0.05-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.52-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0622.7327.19-0.06-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.770.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.70-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.6415.80-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.34-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0665.2261.450.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0672.7372.030.040.03
VirginiaACC0.110.0682.6178.050.070.03
DetroitHorz0.110.0647.6245.85-0.01-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0682.6178.890.070.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0636.3633.47-0.01-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.74-0.06-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0634.7834.15-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0615.7920.03-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.100.0654.5556.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0663.6462.140.000.01
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.900.020.03
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.570.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0686.3682.100.040.04
TexasB120.050.0669.5762.630.020.01
CreightonBE0.060.0362.5059.780.010.01
IowaB100.060.0382.6180.580.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0347.6252.67-0.000.00
OregonP120.060.0382.6179.210.040.02
BryantNEC0.060.0325.0026.37-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0313.0413.54-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0339.1338.34-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0356.2556.100.010.00
MaineAE0.060.0334.7834.00-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.24-0.04-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0362.5062.450.010.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0355.0053.180.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.45-0.04-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0375.0070.940.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0338.1041.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.47-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.230.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.670.040.02
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.480.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0342.8641.97-0.01-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.310.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.270.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.11-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0363.6465.030.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.240.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.1754.130.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.660.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.23-0.05-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.040.02
MichiganB100.050.0369.5766.220.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.020.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.810.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.12-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.3679.150.040.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0386.3682.380.000.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.730.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.45-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.420.020.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.76-0.03-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.9686.370.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01