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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:332.5
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:329
Current Record:2-8
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-12
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:335



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12235.00.01%
16-13265.50.11%
15-14283.50.69%
14-15297.42.18%
13-16309.25.73%
12-17319.010.78%
11-18327.516.61%
10-19334.020.78%
9-20339.618.76%
8-21343.813.31%
7-22346.77.14%
6-23348.82.78%
5-24349.80.89%
4-25350.60.19%
3-26351.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (94.4)P12A49-39L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (174.6)MAACA73-50L0%0.0
11-22Towson (194.4)CAAN63-42L0%0.0
11-23Central Connecticut (310.2)NECN60-65W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (146.2)OVCH56-74L0%0.0
11-30UCF (273.3)AmerA75-67L0%0.0
12-3North Florida (141.0)ASunH56-63L0%0.0
12-6Jacksonville (341.9)ASunH52-47W100%0.0
12-8South Carolina St. (278.1)MEACA71-66L0%0.0
12-15Grand Canyon (286.0)WACA60-50L0%0.0
12-19Mercer (255.8)SCA0-017%-11.1
12-30The Citadel (319.3)SCA0-027%-7.2
1-3Ball St. (169.8)MACA0-07%-17.4
1-10Hampton (250.6)MEACH0-043%-2.0
1-12Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACH0-032%-5.4
1-17Coppin St. (335.6)MEACA0-056%1.7
1-19Morgan St. (295.3)MEACA0-024%-8.3
1-24Maryland Eastern Shore (263.3)MEACH0-051%0.2
1-26Howard (275.8)MEACH0-051%0.2
1-31Florida A&M (348.6)MEACA0-064%4.2
2-3Stetson (310.7)ASunH0-058%2.4
2-7Delaware St. (278.0)MEACA0-028%-7.0
2-14North Carolina Central (153.3)MEACH0-022%-9.0
2-16North Carolina A&T (336.2)MEACH0-070%6.1
2-21Florida A&M (348.6)MEACH0-087%13.2
2-25Savannah St. (318.7)MEACA0-044%-1.8
2-28North Carolina Central (153.3)MEACA0-06%-17.9
3-2North Carolina A&T (336.2)MEACA0-040%-2.9
3-6South Carolina St. (278.1)MEACH0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC27.8726.1219.0534.18-17.25-8.26
Florida A&MMEAC0.534.180.0012.24-0.53-3.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.030.0021.31-0.00-2.31
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.0244.4468.51-0.001.49
South Carolina St.MEAC5.003.9612.5033.65-3.75-1.29
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.4218.1826.68-0.00-1.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.3641.6743.04-0.00-0.33
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3333.3339.29-0.00-0.50
Morgan St.MEAC0.282.3220.0036.10-0.17-0.65
Coppin St.MEAC0.282.320.0013.42-0.28-1.70
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3050.0056.260.000.29
HamptonMEAC0.002.3044.4449.53-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.002.2933.3342.94-0.00-0.32
StetsonASun0.312.0011.1128.87-0.24-0.84
North FloridaASun5.001.9142.8659.80-0.710.37
JacksonvilleASun5.001.910.0014.36-5.00-1.36
TowsonCAA5.561.8462.5049.711.39-0.01
MercerSC0.001.7937.5039.61-0.00-0.37
Grand CanyonWAC5.001.7833.3342.19-1.67-0.28
The CitadelSC0.001.7816.6727.87-0.00-0.79
Central ConnecticutNEC5.561.7825.0031.98-2.78-0.64
MonmouthMAAC5.561.7837.5055.18-1.390.18
UCFAmer5.001.7642.8627.55-0.71-0.79
Tennessee MartinOVC5.001.7566.6766.421.670.58
Arizona St.P125.001.7255.5652.400.560.08
Ball St.MAC0.001.7233.3345.62-0.00-0.15
USC UpstateASun0.310.4366.6765.150.100.13
Northern KentuckyASun0.360.2825.0033.31-0.18-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2230.0028.28-0.00-0.09
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1971.4364.440.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1975.0070.980.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.1925.0042.82-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.280.1877.7877.550.150.10
VMISC0.000.1633.3338.85-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1633.3339.81-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.280.1633.3331.09-0.09-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1642.8655.73-0.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.280.1550.0045.540.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.1583.3358.570.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1540.0065.07-0.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.280.1537.5037.27-0.07-0.04
FordhamA100.280.1528.5727.72-0.12-0.07
MarylandB100.810.1590.9167.920.660.05
NJITind0.000.1536.3641.92-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1425.0047.42-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.310.1344.4433.13-0.03-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1344.4450.93-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.1325.0029.22-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1322.2238.58-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1322.2245.74-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.1375.0077.280.000.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1375.0065.380.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1320.0026.66-0.00-0.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1350.0059.030.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.590.1260.0064.120.120.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1210.0018.39-0.00-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1240.0049.29-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.560.1266.6772.470.190.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.1271.4360.170.000.02
TempleAmer0.280.1260.0054.040.060.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1211.1129.23-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6753.260.000.01
ElonCAA0.310.1237.5048.77-0.08-0.00
OregonP120.000.1262.5057.800.000.02
UMBCAE0.560.1210.0021.35-0.44-0.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1137.5037.71-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.280.1145.4551.71-0.030.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0922.2231.80-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.280.0910.0040.34-0.22-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.310.0950.0051.980.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5639.260.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.0950.0050.190.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.920.0920.0020.84-0.55-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0983.3366.520.000.03
South FloridaAmer0.280.0950.0048.280.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0987.5054.670.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0054.480.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0933.3359.83-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0017.65-0.00-0.06
WyomingMWC0.000.0977.7873.060.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0920.0026.45-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.250.0983.3363.180.170.02
VirginiaACC0.280.09100.0086.080.280.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0033.140.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0054.960.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.310.0962.5064.900.080.03
NavyPat0.000.0920.0021.16-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.250.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0957.1456.000.000.01
SMUAmer0.280.0966.6770.530.090.04
WashingtonP120.280.09100.0070.570.280.04
MarquetteBE0.610.0955.5647.220.07-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0957.1456.250.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.530.0966.6755.560.180.01
Chicago St.WAC0.250.090.0011.59-0.25-0.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0987.5080.890.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.090.008.21-0.00-0.07
DetroitHorz0.000.0950.0053.430.000.01
UtahP120.000.0977.7880.520.000.05
IonaMAAC0.280.0966.6772.270.090.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0936.3647.60-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0828.5741.09-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0825.0037.01-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.280.0844.4440.58-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0842.8655.87-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0814.2933.61-0.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.370.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0058.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.650.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.06-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4447.24-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.310.0687.5076.910.230.03
IPFWSum0.280.0657.1456.130.040.01
LongwoodBSth0.360.0622.2227.64-0.20-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.480.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0066.870.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.840.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.280.0644.4449.60-0.03-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5047.890.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0655.5655.960.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.950.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3351.71-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.280.0642.8633.13-0.04-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.250.0675.0069.770.130.02
IllinoisB100.000.0670.0066.410.000.02
IndianaB100.250.0680.0057.560.150.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.660.000.02
LibertyBSth0.310.0628.5732.96-0.13-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0690.0079.360.250.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.65-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0655.5665.940.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.380.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0688.8984.020.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0655.5631.620.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.870.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5045.72-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0642.8644.96-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3341.10-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0633.3338.84-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.250.0671.4360.450.110.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8644.92-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7173.700.000.03
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.38-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.250.0677.7866.040.140.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.29-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0675.0061.240.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0640.0058.50-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.930.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5746.92-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0065.960.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0061.890.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6757.220.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0040.22-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.280.0610.0018.60-0.22-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0050.490.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0637.5046.01-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0633.3343.11-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0057.760.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.38-0.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0671.4361.160.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1459.520.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0370.0070.960.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.360.0320.0033.83-0.21-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.430.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0047.17-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.360.0366.6742.930.12-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0337.5048.43-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.540.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0344.4455.06-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.380.000.01
FloridaSEC0.280.0360.0064.780.060.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8656.16-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0011.08-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0038.270.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0357.1447.630.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.280.0380.0063.530.170.01
NorthwesternB100.310.0366.6744.720.10-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.250.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0037.020.00-0.01
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.400.140.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0056.190.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0377.7875.600.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.43-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0311.1143.47-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.5657.230.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.650.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.090.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.340.000.01
BaylorB120.000.0388.8975.070.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.09-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0314.2944.11-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0077.640.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0344.4447.41-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.250.0316.6733.31-0.17-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0366.6773.810.000.01
KentuckySEC0.250.03100.0094.460.250.03
Montana St.BSky0.250.0325.0027.78-0.13-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0366.6758.510.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.150.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.73-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8638.51-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.98-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5072.760.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6725.01-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8964.060.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.080.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0357.1445.530.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1145.10-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0337.5064.38-0.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.0355.5655.850.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.540.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0037.860.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0322.2230.22-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.280.0366.6759.740.090.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.340.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0371.4356.890.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.90-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0034.21-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0340.0036.16-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.250.0320.0042.53-0.15-0.00
HartfordAE0.280.0350.0050.920.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8651.80-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0328.5722.66-0.11-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.390.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.650.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.470.000.00
UNLVMWC0.250.0371.4350.790.110.00
USCP120.000.0360.0037.100.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.110.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.270.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.86-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.280.0390.0067.550.220.01