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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:346.5
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:335
Current Record:2-14
Expected Record:7-21
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-15
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:344
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15311.00.01%
12-16319.20.20%
11-17330.21.00%
10-18337.33.81%
9-19342.29.26%
8-20345.219.14%
7-21347.224.37%
6-22348.422.22%
5-23349.413.24%
4-24350.15.40%
3-25350.61.19%
2-26350.90.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. John's (152.1)BEA100-53L0%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (292.9)ASunH75-72W100%0.0
11-20New Mexico St. (63.5)WACA89-73L0%0.0
11-22San Diego (189.0)WCCA96-91L0%0.0
11-25Nicholls St. (253.6)SlndN76-69L0%0.0
11-26Samford (141.0)SCA93-65L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (221.6)HorzA73-62L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (256.0)ASunH66-76L0%0.0
12-12South Florida (286.9)AmerA79-73L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (187.5)OVCA97-72L0%0.0
12-21UCF (73.8)AmerA71-41L0%0.0
1-4Savannah St. (325.1)MEACA104-91L0%0.0
1-7Morgan St. (316.8)MEACH63-69L0%0.0
1-9Coppin St. (328.2)MEACH73-76L0%0.0
1-14South Carolina St. (301.8)MEACA78-74L0%0.0
1-16Florida A&M (348.3)MEACA76-82W100%0.0
1-21Maryland Eastern Shore (305.0)MEACH0-042%-2.4
1-28Norfolk St. (310.3)MEACA0-023%-8.2
2-1Stetson (327.3)ASunH0-047%-0.7
2-4Delaware St. (322.4)MEACH0-056%1.8
2-6Howard (324.7)MEACH0-049%-0.4
2-11Coppin St. (328.2)MEACA0-046%-1.3
2-13Maryland Eastern Shore (305.0)MEACA0-022%-8.6
2-18Hampton (308.1)MEACH0-043%-2.1
2-20Norfolk St. (310.3)MEACH0-043%-1.9
2-25North Carolina Central (195.5)MEACA0-04%-19.0
2-27North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACA0-040%-2.7
3-2Florida A&M (348.3)MEACH0-068%5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.5026.1515.1524.63-18.47-13.27
Florida A&MMEAC3.784.2713.3320.28-2.77-2.54
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.094.1512.5031.31-0.07-1.55
Coppin St.MEAC3.334.1317.6521.71-2.16-2.34
Norfolk St.MEAC0.204.0918.7533.28-0.12-1.37
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.372.490.0012.79-0.37-1.85
HowardMEAC0.182.4612.5027.70-0.14-1.10
Delaware St.MEAC0.082.4617.6529.07-0.05-1.03
Morgan St.MEAC3.222.4633.3342.54-1.07-0.37
Savannah St.MEAC3.332.4420.0029.32-2.00-1.01
HamptonMEAC0.102.4326.6739.42-0.05-0.51
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.4260.0071.850.001.06
South Carolina St.MEAC3.412.397.6926.42-2.88-1.13
JacksonvilleASun3.332.0553.3351.600.220.07
Kennesaw St.ASun3.312.0431.2535.45-1.24-0.59
StetsonASun0.282.0125.0026.42-0.14-0.95
UCFAmer3.331.9776.4765.851.760.63
SamfordSC3.521.9562.5058.510.880.33
South FloridaAmer3.401.9431.2526.35-1.28-0.92
Nicholls St.Slnd3.491.9130.7733.74-1.34-0.62
San DiegoWCC3.421.8843.7538.27-0.43-0.44
New Mexico St.WAC3.421.8887.5083.872.571.27
Cleveland St.Horz3.211.8223.5331.86-1.70-0.66
St. John'sBE3.121.8242.1136.53-0.49-0.49
Tennessee MartinOVC3.211.8252.9454.120.190.15
East CarolinaAmer0.280.3247.3741.50-0.01-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1952.9455.270.010.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.1968.7573.530.030.09
LipscombASun0.090.1941.1847.63-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.100.1941.1845.41-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1918.7530.24-0.06-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.100.1950.0047.440.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.290.1643.7537.62-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.1658.8257.810.020.03
MemphisAmer0.190.1572.2264.100.080.04
George WashingtonA100.180.1550.0047.550.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1588.2486.400.070.11
GeorgetownBE0.160.1552.6348.200.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1333.3333.25-0.03-0.04
RiderMAAC0.180.1357.8953.010.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1361.1163.000.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.180.1318.7523.94-0.11-0.07
IowaB100.190.1357.8951.110.030.00
MichiganB100.090.1263.1658.050.020.02
UMBCAE0.090.1262.5058.780.020.02
PacificWCC0.180.1238.8934.93-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.080.1284.2178.350.050.07
AkronMAC0.090.1282.3575.750.060.06
BYUWCC0.180.1268.4268.140.070.04
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1277.7877.180.100.07
HoustonAmer0.280.1272.2271.190.120.05
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1237.5043.18-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.090.1252.6353.230.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1256.2551.290.000.00
TulaneAmer0.260.1223.5320.64-0.14-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.1062.5060.130.050.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.2935.32-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.200.1064.7160.770.060.02
FurmanSC0.200.1050.0054.870.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.1088.2487.500.160.07
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1078.9582.970.060.06
PurdueB100.090.1078.9576.880.050.05
UMKCWAC0.180.1038.8940.00-0.04-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.1033.3333.44-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.1070.5958.350.040.02
SeattleWAC0.090.1040.0037.09-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.190.1043.7541.38-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0950.0034.710.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0943.7543.61-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0956.2553.600.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0975.0076.830.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.0922.2227.20-0.10-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0918.7520.55-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0933.3330.24-0.03-0.04
CampbellBSth0.190.0946.6745.23-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0975.0074.750.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0950.0047.940.00-0.00
MercerSC0.180.0935.2944.11-0.05-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0923.5324.34-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.090.0935.2930.56-0.03-0.04
MassachusettsA100.180.0961.1159.260.040.02
AmericanPat0.000.0923.5329.83-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.0955.5653.980.020.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0968.7563.220.030.02
SMUAmer0.090.0978.9576.610.050.05
MarquetteBE0.000.0966.6761.460.000.02
VillanovaBE0.160.0994.7489.210.150.07
William & MaryCAA0.100.0742.8647.01-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.200.0781.2572.840.130.03
BucknellPat0.000.0768.4271.120.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0753.3361.460.010.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0722.2230.92-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0716.6718.35-0.06-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0744.4443.48-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.0723.0830.99-0.06-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0049.630.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0764.7161.540.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0723.0831.10-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.180.0757.8958.050.030.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0746.1551.20-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0726.3227.81-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.0725.0033.65-0.06-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0742.1142.60-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.0737.5051.02-0.020.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0740.0044.61-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0744.4442.66-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.100.0783.3381.270.070.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0743.7550.72-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.100.0612.5021.92-0.07-0.04
SyracuseACC0.190.0657.8952.820.030.00
Florida St.ACC0.200.0688.8978.090.160.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0625.0029.58-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0662.5062.570.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.190.0658.8264.270.030.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.0662.5065.730.040.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0661.1159.200.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.170.0664.7165.910.050.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0623.5328.53-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.090.0664.7156.190.030.01
BelmontOVC0.170.0673.3373.080.080.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0637.5045.11-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.170.0663.1663.680.050.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0629.4127.58-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0617.6524.31-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.170.0650.0042.010.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0643.7548.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.0621.4327.22-0.10-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0096.930.000.06
Green BayHorz0.090.0656.2554.680.010.01
HofstraCAA0.090.0644.4445.45-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0652.9451.000.010.00
KentuckySEC0.170.0688.8987.430.140.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0625.0028.48-0.04-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0662.5068.380.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0636.8448.43-0.02-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0647.0655.40-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0626.6732.18-0.04-0.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0670.5972.950.040.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0623.5321.77-0.05-0.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0042.260.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0627.7824.41-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0661.1158.720.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0650.0046.700.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0627.7834.92-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.090.0666.6764.760.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0676.4762.130.000.01
WoffordSC0.090.0626.6739.94-0.04-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0658.8254.920.020.01
VMISC0.000.0614.2915.94-0.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.0640.0046.09-0.04-0.00
Penn St.B100.180.0661.1150.520.040.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0637.5038.14-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0661.1162.130.020.01
VCUA100.080.0677.7873.850.040.03
CreightonBE0.080.0694.4484.830.070.04
DePaulBE0.160.0642.1130.44-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0665.0055.340.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0666.6758.200.000.01
XavierBE0.080.0672.2267.530.030.02
Holy CrossPat0.110.0447.3748.91-0.01-0.00
Miami FLACC0.110.0475.0063.130.060.01
MonmouthMAAC0.110.0473.6874.110.050.02
Texas A&MSEC0.110.0452.9450.980.010.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.55-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0376.4759.460.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0360.0066.160.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0364.7158.500.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0331.5839.38-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0352.9453.520.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0373.3373.820.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0330.7736.84-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0350.0044.340.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.100.0356.2555.630.010.00
DenverSum0.100.0361.1157.840.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0330.7743.73-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.100.0364.7161.950.030.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0331.2545.29-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0322.2236.04-0.05-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0356.2539.360.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.100.0331.5829.24-0.04-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.000.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0331.2526.54-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0361.1156.520.000.00
OregonP120.100.0388.2482.680.070.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0317.6514.96-0.06-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0360.0061.060.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0316.6721.64-0.07-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0335.7148.97-0.03-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0346.1553.09-0.010.00
Texas TechB120.110.0376.4763.780.060.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0350.0058.480.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0362.5057.030.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0318.7528.13-0.06-0.01
BrownIvy0.100.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0368.7569.290.000.01
High PointBSth0.100.0333.3340.05-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0336.8436.59-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0337.5043.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.100.0355.5643.040.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.100.0350.0052.280.000.00
WagnerNEC0.100.0340.0049.62-0.02-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0317.6524.66-0.06-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0340.0040.94-0.02-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0346.1546.03-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.090.0347.0649.73-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0364.7147.100.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0358.3361.490.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0340.0044.11-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0376.4777.760.050.02
IndianaB100.000.0366.6763.790.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0335.2942.44-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0347.0648.25-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0388.2471.860.000.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0361.1155.110.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0329.4138.85-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0331.2539.90-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0362.5060.110.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0317.6521.39-0.06-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0360.0053.490.020.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0388.8977.880.000.02
OhioMAC0.090.0366.6767.310.030.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0362.5066.040.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0355.5649.850.01-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0327.7829.38-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.230.000.01
TroySB0.090.0347.0648.08-0.01-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0314.2927.70-0.07-0.01
UCLAP120.090.0394.7489.340.080.02
USCP120.090.0384.2172.830.060.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.3745.13-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0331.2536.83-0.03-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0377.7870.840.050.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0337.5034.43-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0342.8648.03-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0335.2931.88-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0363.1657.650.020.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0378.9570.200.050.01