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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:343.0
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:336
Current Record:5-25
Expected Record:5-25
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-19
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:304



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-25343.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12South Florida (232.0)AmerA91-65L0%0.0
11-17UCF (220.0)AmerA83-63L0%0.0
11-21FIU (202.0)CUSAH67-82L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA79-56L0%0.0
11-27Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA66-52L0%0.0
11-29Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACN80-89L0%0.0
11-30Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyA65-60L0%0.0
12-3Stetson (333.0)ASunA56-52L0%0.0
12-7Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA59-45L0%0.0
12-9Hampton (204.0)MEACA85-52L0%0.0
12-14Akron (93.0)MACA84-56L0%0.0
12-17Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA71-59L0%0.0
12-21North Florida (189.0)ASunA68-64L0%0.0
12-30Detroit (230.0)HorzA73-53L0%0.0
1-3Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA65-51L0%0.0
1-11North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH67-70L0%0.0
1-13North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH49-64L0%0.0
1-18Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA70-60L0%0.0
1-20South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA69-67L0%0.0
1-25Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH69-63W100%0.0
1-27Howard (323.0)MEACH58-47W100%0.0
2-1Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH40-50L0%0.0
2-3South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH91-59W100%0.0
2-8North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA77-54L0%0.0
2-10North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA71-72W100%0.0
2-15Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH67-79L0%0.0
2-22Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH75-80L0%0.0
3-1Morgan St. (225.0)MEACA65-61L0%0.0
3-6Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA68-70W100%0.0
3-11Coppin St. (261.0)MEACN75-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1126.1118.2518.25-16.58-16.58
Savannah St.MEAC4.094.0932.1432.14-1.46-1.46
Florida A&MMEAC4.084.0839.2939.29-0.88-0.88
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.064.0682.7682.762.662.66
South Carolina St.MEAC4.004.0023.0823.08-2.15-2.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.983.9824.1424.14-2.06-2.06
Norfolk St.MEAC2.342.3451.7251.720.080.08
Coppin St.MEAC2.342.3433.3333.33-0.78-0.78
Morgan St.MEAC2.332.3346.6746.67-0.16-0.16
HowardMEAC2.332.3320.0020.00-1.40-1.40
HamptonMEAC2.282.2858.6258.620.390.39
Delaware St.MEAC2.282.2822.2222.22-1.26-1.26
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.222.2218.5218.52-1.40-1.40
StetsonASun1.861.8620.0020.00-1.12-1.12
South FloridaAmer1.831.8335.4835.48-0.53-0.53
North FloridaASun1.831.8344.8344.83-0.19-0.19
FIUCUSA1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
DetroitHorz1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
UCFAmer1.771.7735.7135.71-0.51-0.51
Youngstown St.Horz1.751.7539.2939.29-0.38-0.38
New Mexico St.WAC1.751.7572.7372.730.790.79
AkronMAC1.751.7562.5062.500.440.44
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.751.7528.1228.12-0.76-0.76
Colorado St.MWC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Northern ColoradoBSky1.741.7453.5753.570.120.12
Northern IllinoisMAC1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
JacksonvilleASun0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.250.2562.5062.500.060.06
NJITind0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
RutgersAmer0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UICHorz0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
TempleAmer0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1430.0030.00-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
SMUAmer0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
NebraskaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02