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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:346.0
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:346
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-15
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:347
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22346.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. John's (140.0)BEA100-53L0%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH75-72W100%0.0
11-20New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA89-73L0%0.0
11-22San Diego (205.0)WCCA96-91L0%0.0
11-25Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndN76-69L0%0.0
11-26Samford (170.0)SCA93-65L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA73-62L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH66-76L0%0.0
12-12South Florida (316.0)AmerA79-73L0%0.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA97-72L0%0.0
12-21UCF (68.0)AmerA71-41L0%0.0
1-4Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA104-91L0%0.0
1-7Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH63-69L0%0.0
1-9Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH73-76L0%0.0
1-14South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA78-74L0%0.0
1-16Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA76-82W100%0.0
1-21Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH79-82L0%0.0
1-28Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA73-66L0%0.0
2-1Stetson (328.0)ASunH67-76L0%0.0
2-4Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH82-88L0%0.0
2-6Howard (337.0)MEACH71-67W100%0.0
2-11Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA76-72L0%0.0
2-13Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA82-81L0%0.0
2-18Hampton (283.0)MEACH62-61W100%0.0
2-20Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH75-65W100%0.0
2-25North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA78-63L0%0.0
2-27North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA70-73W100%0.0
3-2Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH69-59W100%0.0
3-7Delaware St. (332.0)MEACN62-69W100%0.0
3-8North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACN95-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1726.1726.5626.56-12.27-12.27
Florida A&MMEAC4.064.0619.2319.23-2.50-2.50
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.054.0571.4371.431.741.74
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC4.034.0333.3333.33-1.34-1.34
Norfolk St.MEAC3.983.9848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Delaware St.MEAC3.983.9825.0025.00-1.99-1.99
Coppin St.MEAC3.903.9017.8617.86-2.50-2.50
HowardMEAC2.482.4825.8125.81-1.20-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.452.4528.5728.57-1.05-1.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.442.443.453.45-2.27-2.27
Morgan St.MEAC2.372.3742.8642.86-0.34-0.34
HamptonMEAC2.362.3644.4444.44-0.26-0.26
Savannah St.MEAC2.282.2838.4638.46-0.53-0.53
Kennesaw St.ASun1.901.9041.3841.38-0.33-0.33
JacksonvilleASun1.901.9044.4444.44-0.21-0.21
StetsonASun1.871.8725.0025.00-0.93-0.93
UCFAmer1.831.8364.5264.520.530.53
SamfordSC1.811.8151.6151.610.060.06
South FloridaAmer1.811.8120.6920.69-1.06-1.06
Nicholls St.Slnd1.771.7734.6234.62-0.55-0.55
New Mexico St.WAC1.751.7582.7682.761.151.15
San DiegoWCC1.751.7537.9337.93-0.42-0.42
St. John'sBE1.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Cleveland St.Horz1.691.6924.1424.14-0.88-0.88
East CarolinaAmer0.310.3145.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.2376.6776.670.120.12
North FloridaASun0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.200.2046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
MemphisAmer0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.140.1488.2488.240.100.10
UMBCAE0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
PacificWCC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0929.4129.41-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CampbellBSth0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01