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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:339.2
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:340
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-15
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:350
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10225.00.01%
18-11253.10.09%
17-12273.30.31%
16-13290.40.81%
15-14302.52.08%
14-15314.44.72%
13-16324.99.00%
12-17333.312.50%
11-18339.916.24%
10-19344.417.19%
9-20347.714.86%
8-21349.410.95%
7-22350.46.39%
6-23350.83.26%
5-24351.01.22%
4-25350.90.28%
3-26351.00.05%
2-27351.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (269.0)WACA92-74L0%0.0
11-16North Texas (285.9)CUSAA90-78L0%0.0
11-19Georgia Tech (108.5)ACCA0-01%-27.4
11-21Grambling St. (328.3)SWACH0-063%3.9
11-30Jacksonville (315.7)ASunA0-029%-6.7
12-2Florida Atlantic (273.2)CUSAA0-020%-10.1
12-8Boston University (212.1)PatH0-024%-8.4
12-12Cal Poly (242.5)BWH0-031%-6.0
12-14South Florida (296.3)AmerA0-023%-8.8
12-16Kennesaw St. (294.0)ASunA0-023%-8.8
12-19Washington (146.1)P12A0-04%-20.6
12-22Washington St. (180.4)P12A0-07%-17.7
1-3South Carolina St. (317.2)MEACH0-059%2.6
1-6Howard (252.7)MEACA0-021%-9.7
1-8Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACA0-043%-2.1
1-13Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-074%7.9
1-15Stetson (321.2)ASunA0-026%-7.6
1-20Delaware St. (346.5)MEACA0-054%1.3
1-27Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACA0-027%-7.4
1-29Hampton (281.6)MEACA0-023%-8.7
2-3Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH0-068%5.5
2-5Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACH0-045%-1.4
2-10Maryland Eastern Shore (320.1)MEACH0-063%3.9
2-12North Carolina Central (279.7)MEACH0-041%-2.8
2-17Coppin St. (329.3)MEACA0-048%-0.5
2-19Morgan St. (319.1)MEACA0-042%-2.4
2-24Savannah St. (300.1)MEACH0-064%4.2
2-26North Carolina A&T (286.8)MEACH0-048%-0.6
3-1Florida A&M (335.5)MEACA0-056%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC34.3826.120.0038.79-34.38-5.85
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.000.0021.520.00-2.28
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.000.0017.270.00-2.61
Norfolk St.MEAC0.003.960.0041.230.00-0.70
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.003.960.0027.300.00-1.80
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.390.0033.780.00-0.78
HowardMEAC0.002.390.0044.910.00-0.24
HamptonMEAC0.002.380.0046.980.00-0.14
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.3733.3334.280.00-0.75
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.3666.6748.140.00-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.330.0024.730.00-1.18
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.330.0048.870.00-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.330.0020.730.00-1.36
Georgia TechACC0.001.920.0056.140.000.24
JacksonvilleASun0.001.910.0028.020.00-0.84
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.880.0029.630.00-0.77
StetsonASun0.001.8833.3332.080.00-0.67
North TexasCUSA25.001.880.0034.38-25.00-0.59
South FloridaAmer0.001.8566.6727.160.00-0.85
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC25.001.8433.3333.03-8.33-0.63
WashingtonP120.001.8250.0045.180.00-0.18
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.810.0030.130.00-0.72
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.810.0032.610.00-0.63
Washington St.P120.001.78100.0039.890.00-0.36
Boston UniversityPat0.001.720.0046.650.00-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.001.7233.3336.800.00-0.46
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.27100.0075.130.000.14
North FloridaASun0.000.250.0036.690.00-0.07
GeorgetownBE0.000.24100.0058.070.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2366.6773.200.000.10
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2275.0072.950.000.10
East CarolinaAmer0.000.2033.3334.490.00-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.1933.3349.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.1933.3333.210.00-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.190.0039.010.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.190.0024.970.00-0.09
SeattleWAC0.000.1833.3350.150.000.00
OregonP120.000.17100.0076.200.000.09
RiceCUSA0.000.1633.3336.410.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.16100.0047.670.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.160.0030.350.00-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.150.0051.690.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.1566.6740.170.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.1575.0049.860.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.1575.0061.940.000.04
NavyPat0.000.1550.0052.870.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0044.630.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.130.0045.640.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.1266.6757.400.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.120.0044.500.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
VirginiaACC0.000.12100.0074.140.000.06
UCFAmer0.000.12100.0061.780.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.12100.0052.860.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.1266.6742.260.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.12100.0067.160.000.04
UCLAP120.000.12100.0064.910.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.11100.0082.350.000.07
ConnecticutAmer0.000.11100.0056.360.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0074.500.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.100.0040.830.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.10100.0062.630.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6749.100.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.10100.0078.750.000.06
HawaiiBW0.000.10100.0053.460.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1033.3353.300.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0933.3338.350.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0933.3360.630.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0052.380.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.09100.0071.560.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3342.010.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.090.0024.440.00-0.05
NebraskaB106.250.0966.6740.072.08-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.09100.0052.950.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.09100.0054.680.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0925.0054.930.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0050.360.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0044.830.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0975.0076.250.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0925.0047.800.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3353.520.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0966.6771.200.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0925.0040.490.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.09100.0054.960.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0066.710.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0035.130.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0750.0051.070.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0733.3331.840.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3350.220.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0071.740.000.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6768.790.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0046.410.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.0650.0053.620.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.060.0061.460.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0650.0050.310.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0066.010.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.060.0021.970.00-0.03
LehighPat0.000.0666.6751.580.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.06100.0057.270.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.060.0038.210.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0068.280.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0016.000.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.060.0041.210.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0042.670.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0069.320.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.120.060.0046.00-3.12-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0060.430.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0062.760.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
Wichita St.Amer0.000.06100.0082.290.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0633.3334.560.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0026.180.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6753.670.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0050.670.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0066.530.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
RutgersB100.000.06100.0046.880.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0069.350.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0063.830.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.06100.0054.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0064.720.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0625.0035.000.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.030.0031.910.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0333.3347.670.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.03100.0060.010.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0350.0059.190.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0333.3335.310.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd3.120.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Texas St.SB3.120.0333.3346.09-1.04-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0333.3351.560.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0034.730.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0039.740.00-0.01