Bethune Cookman

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	239.0
Current RPI:	239
Expected SOS:	319
Current SOS:	319
Current Record:	16-17
Expected Record:	16-17
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-6
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	304
Expected OOC SOS:	210

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-17	239.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	A	65-60	L	0%
11-14	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	A	76-74	L	0%
11-21	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	H	55-65	L	0%
11-27	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	75-51	L	0%
11-29	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	A	61-56	L	0%
12-3	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	74-59	W	100%
12-10	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	53-51	L	0%
12-14	Baylor (8.0)	B12	A	69-42	L	0%
12-17	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	77-52	L	0%
12-19	Stanford (97.0)	P12	A	75-56	L	0%
12-22	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	N	52-61	W	100%
12-23	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	N	59-67	L	0%
1-2	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	A	67-41	L	0%
1-7	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	A	56-59	W	100%
1-9	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	A	69-64	L	0%
1-14	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	82-76	W	100%
1-16	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	H	68-62	W	100%
1-21	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	A	59-60	W	100%
1-23	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	A	55-67	W	100%
1-28	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	A	68-62	L	0%
2-4	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	92-79	W	100%
2-6	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	H	79-81	L	0%
2-8	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	H	84-76	W	100%
2-13	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	A	67-73	W	100%
2-18	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	59-70	W	100%
2-20	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	A	67-44	L	0%
2-25	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	H	72-75	L	0%
2-27	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	H	74-64	W	100%
3-1	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	H	88-80	W	100%
3-6	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	N	62-53	W	100%
3-8	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	N	60-59	W	100%
3-9	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	N	81-72	W	100%
3-10	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	N	73-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	26.46	26.46	53.15	53.15	1.67	1.67
South Carolina St.	MEAC	5.21	5.21	11.54	11.54	-4.01	-4.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	5.19	5.19	44.00	44.00	-0.62	-0.62
Florida A&M	MEAC	3.91	3.91	24.14	24.14	-2.02	-2.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.87	3.87	64.29	64.29	1.11	1.11
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3.78	3.78	33.33	33.33	-1.26	-1.26
Norfolk St.	MEAC	3.64	3.64	73.33	73.33	1.70	1.70
Hampton	MEAC	3.63	3.63	38.71	38.71	-0.82	-0.82
Houston Baptist	GWC	3.03	3.03	24.00	24.00	-1.58	-1.58
Howard	MEAC	2.23	2.23	31.03	31.03	-0.85	-0.85
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.14	2.14	40.00	40.00	-0.43	-0.43
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.14	2.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.13	2.13	21.43	21.43	-1.22	-1.22
North Florida	ASun	1.74	1.74	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Stetson	ASun	1.74	1.74	25.93	25.93	-0.84	-0.84
Jacksonville	ASun	1.67	1.67	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
Baylor	B12	1.62	1.62	78.12	78.12	0.91	0.91
Central Florida	CUSA	1.59	1.59	65.52	65.52	0.49	0.49
St. Mary's	WCC	1.59	1.59	82.76	82.76	1.04	1.04
Auburn	SEC	1.59	1.59	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.57	1.57	20.69	20.69	-0.92	-0.92
Illinois St.	MVC	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
Stanford	P12	1.52	1.52	64.52	64.52	0.44	0.44
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.52	1.52	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.74	0.74	31.03	31.03	-0.28	-0.28
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.33	0.33	6.67	6.67	-0.29	-0.29
Longwood	ind	0.25	0.25	22.22	22.22	-0.14	-0.14
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.21	0.21	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.20	0.20	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.19	0.19	10.71	10.71	-0.15	-0.15
Indiana	B10	0.18	0.18	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.18	0.18	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.18	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	34.62	34.62	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	96.43	96.43	0.09	0.09
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	83.87	83.87	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	18.75	18.75	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00