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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:344.0
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:350
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-13
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:349
Expected OOC SOS:344



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21344.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (102.0)P12A49-39L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (176.0)MAACA73-50L0%0.0
11-22Towson (281.0)CAAN63-42L0%0.0
11-23Central Connecticut (342.0)NECN60-65W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH56-74L0%0.0
11-30UCF (257.0)AmerA75-67L0%0.0
12-3North Florida (162.0)ASunH56-63L0%0.0
12-6Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH52-47W100%0.0
12-8South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA71-66L0%0.0
12-15Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA60-50L0%0.0
12-19Mercer (212.0)SCA67-46L0%0.0
12-30The Citadel (327.0)SCA51-47L0%0.0
1-3Ball St. (284.0)MACA51-48L0%0.0
1-10Hampton (251.0)MEACH56-58L0%0.0
1-12Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH55-79L0%0.0
1-17Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA53-58W100%0.0
1-19Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA58-65W100%0.0
1-24Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH70-74L0%0.0
1-26Howard (255.0)MEACH42-45L0%0.0
1-31Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA44-61W100%0.0
2-3Stetson (335.0)ASunH72-77L0%0.0
2-7Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA70-75W100%0.0
2-14North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH51-65L0%0.0
2-16North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH78-56W100%0.0
2-21Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH64-57W100%0.0
2-25Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA58-49L0%0.0
2-28North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA72-49L0%0.0
3-2North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA67-50L0%0.0
3-5South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH72-62W100%0.0
3-10Coppin St. (311.0)MEACN60-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1126.1131.2531.25-9.79-9.79
Florida A&MMEAC4.034.037.417.41-3.43-3.43
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.973.9774.0774.071.911.91
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.943.9421.4321.43-2.25-2.25
Coppin St.MEAC3.943.9421.4321.43-2.25-2.25
South Carolina St.MEAC3.913.9127.5927.59-1.75-1.75
Delaware St.MEAC2.412.4150.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC2.362.3621.4321.43-1.35-1.35
Norfolk St.MEAC2.322.3256.6756.670.310.31
HamptonMEAC2.322.3246.8846.88-0.15-0.15
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.302.3054.8454.840.220.22
Morgan St.MEAC2.292.2923.3323.33-1.22-1.22
HowardMEAC2.262.2642.8642.86-0.32-0.32
StetsonASun1.951.9518.5218.52-1.23-1.23
North FloridaASun1.871.8763.3363.330.500.50
JacksonvilleASun1.841.8425.0025.00-0.92-0.92
TowsonCAA1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
MercerSC1.731.7350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
The CitadelSC1.721.7226.9226.92-0.79-0.79
Central ConnecticutNEC1.721.7216.6716.67-1.15-1.15
UCFAmer1.701.7035.7135.71-0.48-0.48
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6955.5655.560.190.19
Arizona St.P121.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
Ball St.MAC1.671.6717.8617.86-1.07-1.07
USC UpstateASun0.420.4263.3363.330.110.11
Northern KentuckyASun0.260.2639.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2065.5265.520.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
LipscombASun0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
FurmanSC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
VMISC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1760.7160.710.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1427.2727.27-0.06-0.06
HoustonAmer0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
ElonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
NJITind0.130.1356.0056.000.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1118.7518.75-0.07-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UMBCAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0971.4371.430.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01