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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:325.7
Current RPI:233
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:108
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-12
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:340
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10196.40.05%
18-11220.40.14%
17-12237.80.51%
16-13255.31.57%
15-14276.63.22%
14-15291.96.41%
13-16306.910.61%
12-17319.515.47%
11-18330.217.32%
10-19337.415.82%
9-20343.012.56%
8-21346.58.54%
7-22348.84.73%
6-23349.91.93%
5-24350.50.85%
4-25350.90.21%
3-26351.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Arizona St. (89.9)P12A49-39L0%0.0
11-21Monmouth (147.4)MAACA73-50L0%0.0
11-22Towson (170.2)CAAN63-42L0%0.0
11-23Central Connecticut (300.7)NECN0-044%-1.9
11-25Tennessee Martin (309.1)OVCH0-060%3.2
11-30UCF (198.7)AmerA0-013%-13.7
12-3North Florida (220.5)ASunH0-038%-3.8
12-6Jacksonville (333.3)ASunH0-069%5.8
12-8South Carolina St. (291.4)MEACA0-035%-4.7
12-15Grand Canyon (256.1)WACA0-020%-10.0
12-19Mercer (227.2)SCA0-019%-10.4
12-30The Citadel (328.2)SCA0-041%-2.6
1-3Ball St. (233.5)MACA0-022%-9.4
1-10Hampton (241.8)MEACH0-041%-2.6
1-12Norfolk St. (240.6)MEACH0-044%-1.9
1-17Coppin St. (249.1)MEACA0-029%-6.5
1-19Morgan St. (264.9)MEACA0-024%-8.6
1-24Maryland Eastern Shore (328.8)MEACH0-069%6.0
1-26Howard (305.9)MEACH0-057%2.1
1-31Florida A&M (346.8)MEACA0-059%2.7
2-3Stetson (312.6)ASunH0-059%2.7
2-7Delaware St. (249.4)MEACA0-025%-8.2
2-14North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACH0-021%-9.7
2-16North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACH0-069%6.0
2-21Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH0-080%9.9
2-25Savannah St. (241.4)MEACA0-028%-7.0
2-28North Carolina Central (153.1)MEACA0-08%-16.9
3-2North Carolina A&T (324.5)MEACA0-046%-1.2
3-6South Carolina St. (291.4)MEACH0-058%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC32.6426.140.0037.69-32.64-6.44
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.200.0017.35-0.00-2.74
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.040.0022.77-0.00-2.20
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.020.0070.84-0.001.68
South Carolina St.MEAC0.003.970.0031.09-0.00-1.50
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.4450.0040.600.00-0.46
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.3720.0027.69-0.00-1.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3433.3343.46-0.00-0.31
Morgan St.MEAC2.082.340.0039.12-2.08-0.51
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.340.0032.31-0.00-0.83
HamptonMEAC0.002.3125.0051.30-0.000.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3133.3345.46-0.00-0.21
HowardMEAC0.002.310.0035.23-0.00-0.68
StetsonASun0.002.000.0031.73-0.00-0.73
JacksonvilleASun0.001.910.0024.80-0.00-0.96
North FloridaASun0.001.910.0046.55-0.00-0.13
TowsonCAA16.671.8466.6752.265.560.08
MercerSC0.001.7950.0051.170.000.04
The CitadelSC0.001.790.0026.85-0.00-0.83
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.7850.0048.690.00-0.05
Central ConnecticutNEC4.861.780.0034.66-4.86-0.55
MonmouthMAAC16.671.7850.0056.830.000.24
UCFAmer0.001.76100.0045.230.00-0.17
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7550.0033.480.00-0.58
Arizona St.P1216.671.72100.0054.8216.670.17
Ball St.MAC0.001.720.0034.81-0.00-0.52
USC UpstateASun0.000.43100.0051.050.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.2833.3340.99-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2220.0026.89-0.00-0.10
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.2050.0052.290.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.19100.0072.860.000.09
LipscombASun0.000.190.0042.80-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1866.6762.810.000.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.160.0033.25-0.00-0.05
VMISC0.000.1633.3339.27-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.1625.0031.88-0.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.16100.0064.090.000.04
MarylandB100.000.15100.0064.500.000.04
HoustonAmer0.000.15100.0065.060.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1525.0056.39-0.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1525.0066.02-0.000.05
FordhamA100.000.150.0035.11-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.150.0033.55-0.00-0.05
NJITind0.000.1525.0025.21-0.00-0.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.140.0056.24-0.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0063.820.000.04
IUPUISum0.000.1350.0031.810.00-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.130.0046.61-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3325.18-0.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0032.70-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0049.23-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.1375.0075.140.000.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1333.3346.79-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.120.0046.56-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.120.0063.56-0.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.12100.0070.980.000.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.120.0031.63-0.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.000.1250.0053.100.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6746.540.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.12100.0071.440.000.05
UMBCAE0.000.120.0036.19-0.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3336.55-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1166.6751.290.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3336.99-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0031.23-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1050.0037.760.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0034.98-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.090.0031.61-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0950.0054.290.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0925.0035.65-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0049.250.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.09100.0046.040.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0950.0035.040.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0075.720.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0966.6733.180.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0043.160.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0053.10-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0028.50-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0070.850.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0028.76-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0046.020.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0045.990.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.62-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0933.3340.91-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.09100.0080.090.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0057.540.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0076.190.000.05
SMUAmer0.000.0950.0068.880.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0933.3354.50-0.000.01
UtahP120.000.0966.6769.700.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0966.6744.970.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC2.780.090.0025.43-2.78-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.090.0029.55-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.000.0933.3341.21-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.670.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0933.3357.45-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0850.0038.370.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3343.68-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0825.0031.12-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.080.0045.12-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.850.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.48-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.07100.0073.290.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.840.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0633.3341.92-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6758.190.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0633.3322.74-0.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.730.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0073.530.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0054.710.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
AlabamaSEC2.080.06100.0058.782.080.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3321.74-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.100.000.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.330.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.790.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0633.3355.40-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6749.370.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.60-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.830.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6760.720.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0071.090.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0666.6748.790.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.900.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.84-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0034.55-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.07-0.00-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0666.6763.960.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0037.890.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0028.32-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.64-0.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.890.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0366.6773.760.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0035.64-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.550.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0069.300.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.550.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6768.980.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.50-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0366.6752.030.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0366.6754.240.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.630.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0375.0060.550.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0366.6734.100.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0074.620.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0350.0056.270.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0080.630.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0034.07-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6753.050.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0366.6754.020.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0350.0044.170.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0375.0054.790.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.34-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.260.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.51-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0059.530.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0044.810.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0047.170.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.830.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0063.070.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.630.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
LehighPat0.000.030.0036.87-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC2.780.0333.3327.10-0.93-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0053.210.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0065.270.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.58-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0325.0037.31-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
West VirginiaB122.780.03100.0067.572.780.01