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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:288.0
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:342
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18288.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA79-86W100%0.0
11-21Richmond (121.0)A10A89-64L0%0.0
11-23West Virginia (10.0)B12A97-44L0%0.0
11-26Stetson (303.0)ASunN83-70L0%0.0
11-27Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndN46-71L0%0.0
12-7South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH69-54W100%0.0
12-12Akron (34.0)MACA81-60L0%0.0
12-16The Citadel (322.0)SCH87-99L0%0.0
12-19Toledo (182.0)MACA102-68L0%0.0
12-22UCF (219.0)AmerA101-96L0%0.0
12-28Brown (312.0)IvyA81-73L0%0.0
12-31Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA74-70L0%0.0
1-3Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA74-53L0%0.0
1-9Hampton (155.0)MEACA75-70L0%0.0
1-11Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA70-72W100%0.0
1-16Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH54-62L0%0.0
1-18Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH62-50W100%0.0
1-23Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA74-72L0%0.0
1-26Howard (328.0)MEACA70-68L0%0.0
1-30Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH88-56W100%0.0
2-2Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH62-59W100%0.0
2-6Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH85-56W100%0.0
2-13North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA90-66L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA77-83W100%0.0
2-20Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA54-55W100%0.0
2-22Stetson (303.0)ASunA94-96W100%0.0
2-27North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH69-61W100%0.0
2-29North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH62-52W100%0.0
3-3South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA85-72L0%0.0
3-10Savannah St. (277.0)MEACN50-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.1826.1845.1645.16-2.53-2.53
Savannah St.MEAC4.044.0448.1548.15-0.15-0.15
South Carolina St.MEAC4.014.0155.1755.170.410.41
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.993.9934.4834.48-1.24-1.24
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.983.9833.3333.33-1.33-1.33
Florida A&MMEAC3.953.9524.0024.00-2.05-2.05
StetsonASun3.503.5025.0025.00-1.75-1.75
HamptonMEAC2.392.3965.5265.520.740.74
Coppin St.MEAC2.362.3621.4321.43-1.35-1.35
Norfolk St.MEAC2.342.3450.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC2.342.3417.2417.24-1.53-1.53
HowardMEAC2.282.2831.0331.03-0.87-0.87
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.282.2826.6726.67-1.07-1.07
Morgan St.MEAC2.282.2827.5927.59-1.02-1.02
JacksonvilleASun1.891.8940.7440.74-0.35-0.35
AkronMAC1.781.7875.0075.000.890.89
West VirginiaB121.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
RichmondA101.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7278.5778.570.980.98
The CitadelSC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
UCFAmer1.721.7237.9337.93-0.42-0.42
BrownIvy1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC1.671.6756.6756.670.220.22
LipscombASun0.280.2832.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.260.2631.0331.03-0.10-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.250.2525.0025.00-0.13-0.13
North FloridaASun0.230.2363.3363.330.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
NJITASun0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.220.2237.5037.50-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.200.2070.9770.970.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
FIUCUSA0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.140.1424.2424.24-0.07-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1464.2964.290.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.030.03
FloridaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.060.06
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
CampbellBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
CornellIvy0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0922.8622.86-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
IPFWSum0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02