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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:339.3
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:299
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-13
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:311



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11242.20.04%
16-12261.00.08%
15-13278.80.33%
14-14296.41.00%
13-15311.62.96%
12-16322.56.37%
11-17331.112.11%
10-18337.716.71%
9-19342.419.32%
8-20345.617.60%
7-21348.012.35%
6-22349.26.93%
5-23350.03.03%
4-24350.60.91%
3-25350.90.22%
2-26350.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. John's (151.8)BEA100-53L0%0.0
11-16Kennesaw St. (309.0)ASunH75-72W100%0.0
11-20New Mexico St. (118.0)WACA89-73L0%0.0
11-22San Diego (236.9)WCCA96-91L0%0.0
11-25Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndN76-69L0%0.0
11-26Samford (166.0)SCA93-65L0%0.0
12-3Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzA73-62L0%0.0
12-5Jacksonville (204.9)ASunH0-023%-8.8
12-12South Florida (267.6)AmerA0-015%-12.4
12-17Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCA0-011%-14.6
12-21UCF (45.0)AmerA0-01%-29.9
1-4Savannah St. (346.4)MEACA0-052%0.7
1-7Morgan St. (329.9)MEACH0-051%0.3
1-9Coppin St. (343.7)MEACH0-074%7.5
1-14South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACA0-040%-3.2
1-16Florida A&M (345.5)MEACA0-046%-1.3
1-21Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH0-044%-1.8
1-28Norfolk St. (313.7)MEACA0-027%-7.4
2-1Stetson (319.1)ASunH0-049%-0.3
2-4Delaware St. (285.3)MEACH0-046%-1.3
2-6Howard (263.6)MEACH0-035%-4.7
2-11Coppin St. (343.7)MEACA0-054%1.3
2-13Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACA0-025%-8.1
2-18Hampton (315.2)MEACH0-044%-1.9
2-20Norfolk St. (313.7)MEACH0-046%-1.1
2-25North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACA0-08%-17.2
2-27North Carolina A&T (343.5)MEACA0-046%-1.3
3-2Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-066%5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC28.2526.1413.0433.37-20.88-8.70
Florida A&MMEAC0.454.270.0020.85-0.45-2.49
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.140.0032.08-0.00-1.49
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.120.0015.72-0.00-2.82
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.120.0033.84-0.00-1.33
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.490.0019.55-0.00-1.52
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.490.0025.84-0.00-1.20
HowardMEAC0.002.4616.6743.60-0.00-0.31
Delaware St.MEAC0.452.4612.5037.41-0.33-0.62
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4614.2937.87-0.00-0.60
HamptonMEAC0.002.4614.2942.15-0.00-0.39
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.430.0017.53-0.00-1.58
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.4257.1470.710.001.00
Kennesaw St.ASun7.142.0428.5731.35-3.06-0.76
JacksonvilleASun0.002.0457.1458.610.000.35
StetsonASun0.002.0128.5727.40-0.00-0.91
UCFAmer0.511.9885.7175.440.361.01
SamfordSC8.551.9557.1454.961.220.19
South FloridaAmer0.451.9457.1431.380.06-0.72
Nicholls St.Slnd8.481.9133.3334.92-2.83-0.58
San DiegoWCC8.551.8828.5728.77-3.66-0.80
New Mexico St.WAC8.551.8871.4369.043.660.72
Cleveland St.Horz7.141.8216.6728.99-4.76-0.76
St. John'sBE7.141.8228.5734.93-3.06-0.55
Tennessee MartinOVC0.511.8275.0053.460.260.13
East CarolinaAmer0.000.3277.7849.900.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2042.8650.12-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1957.1471.940.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.1912.5033.04-0.00-0.07
NJITASun0.000.1950.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1912.5034.79-0.00-0.06
USC UpstateASun0.000.1944.4441.30-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.450.1657.1448.500.06-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1657.1453.990.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1655.5641.690.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1575.0055.500.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.450.1587.5082.360.330.10
GeorgetownBE0.000.1555.5647.890.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.1320.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1342.8658.58-0.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1350.0050.840.000.00
IowaB100.450.1337.5037.74-0.11-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1350.0048.810.00-0.00
MichiganB100.450.1375.0066.460.220.04
UMBCAE0.450.1380.0054.540.270.01
PacificWCC0.000.1242.8646.14-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.1262.5066.900.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.990.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.1285.7178.280.000.07
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0074.440.000.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1233.3339.61-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.1275.0064.920.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0038.050.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.450.1212.5023.93-0.33-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1042.8643.60-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1062.5052.330.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1022.2221.23-0.00-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.510.1057.1429.790.07-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.450.1071.4360.540.190.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1075.0086.710.000.07
SeattleWAC0.000.1016.6739.49-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.1071.4357.970.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1028.5741.52-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0971.4354.860.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0925.0038.83-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3379.850.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.0933.3356.24-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0928.5732.62-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.330.000.07
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0928.5723.12-0.00-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8638.17-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0914.2931.35-0.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.450.0942.8639.20-0.06-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0975.0075.340.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0975.0048.030.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.450.0971.4373.040.190.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3346.38-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0942.8647.76-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0950.0041.990.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.350.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.000.0971.4358.600.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0950.0046.410.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0971.4356.260.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0975.0066.410.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0742.8660.54-0.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0712.5030.39-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.75-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0725.0043.41-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0041.540.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0017.61-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.450.0762.5058.450.110.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0740.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0720.0041.92-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0740.0058.82-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6757.300.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0777.7876.040.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.510.0671.4363.930.220.02
San Diego St.MWC0.450.0660.0069.120.090.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.04
BucknellPat0.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.74-0.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.990.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0671.4355.820.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.510.0675.0066.370.260.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.510.0637.5044.39-0.13-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.510.0644.4442.03-0.06-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1450.080.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0616.6730.34-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0642.8651.95-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0662.5043.220.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.510.0687.5082.800.380.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3330.44-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
Saint LouisA100.450.0628.5723.78-0.19-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0628.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.420.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.450.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.450.0671.4368.050.190.02
VCUA100.450.0675.0073.060.220.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.80-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.37-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.450.030.0038.27-0.45-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0344.4434.65-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.0312.5033.65-0.33-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5646.970.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0342.8646.48-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0371.4359.470.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0360.0067.760.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.510.0357.1454.360.070.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0312.5023.75-0.33-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.85-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.450.03100.0086.690.450.02
USCP120.450.03100.0076.680.450.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0337.5035.09-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.450.0355.5658.610.050.00
MinnesotaB100.450.0387.5068.020.330.01