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Through games of Feb 26, 2017.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:228.3
Current RPI:228
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:183
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:219
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16208.11.82%
14-17220.030.98%
13-18232.767.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Grambling St. (327.9)SWACH72-57W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina A&T (350.7)MEACH61-51W100%0.0
11-17Charlotte (238.7)CUSAA76-64L0%0.0
11-20Stetson (332.0)ASunH73-50W100%0.0
11-22Florida A&M (348.4)MEACH82-62W100%0.0
11-25Mercer (194.6)SCN66-70L0%0.0
11-26Air Force (254.8)MWCN63-70W100%0.0
11-29Hampton (299.3)MEACH68-48W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (192.6)MEACH69-56W100%0.0
12-6Virginia (19.4)ACCA76-53L0%0.0
12-15College of Charleston (66.4)CAAH35-53L0%0.0
12-20UNC Wilmington (34.0)CAAA81-71L0%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (345.2)BSthH76-56W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (305.9)AmerH60-49W100%0.0
12-31SMU (16.5)AmerH44-75L0%0.0
1-3UCF (78.1)AmerA48-45L0%0.0
1-7Temple (124.1)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
1-11Houston (49.9)AmerH58-74L0%0.0
1-15Cincinnati (14.1)AmerH46-55L0%0.0
1-22Connecticut (100.5)AmerA72-65L0%0.0
1-25Tulsa (119.3)AmerH69-66W100%0.0
1-28Memphis (114.5)AmerA57-50L0%0.0
2-1SMU (16.5)AmerA86-46L0%0.0
2-4Tulane (291.2)AmerH74-65W100%0.0
2-11South Florida (305.9)AmerA64-57L0%0.0
2-15Temple (124.1)AmerH78-64W100%0.0
2-18UCF (78.1)AmerH58-61L0%0.0
2-21Tulane (291.2)AmerA73-76W100%0.0
2-26Tulsa (119.3)AmerA74-66L0%0.0
3-1Connecticut (100.5)AmerH0-028%-6.1
3-5Houston (49.9)AmerA0-06%-16.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.2726.2839.1337.28-5.71-6.68
UCFAmer4.184.0362.9663.861.081.12
South FloridaAmer4.124.0024.0023.38-2.14-2.13
TempleAmer4.153.9850.0051.060.000.08
SMUAmer4.093.9885.1985.592.882.83
HoustonAmer2.483.9870.3768.691.011.49
TulsaAmer4.093.9850.0048.980.00-0.08
TulaneAmer4.113.9719.2319.37-2.53-2.43
ConnecticutAmer2.483.9746.1545.48-0.19-0.36
CincinnatiAmer2.542.5085.7184.951.821.75
MemphisAmer2.492.5060.7160.140.530.51
Florida A&MMEAC1.951.8120.0020.48-1.17-1.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.861.760.001.89-1.86-1.69
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.821.7379.1780.261.061.05
StetsonASun1.851.7229.6329.63-0.75-0.70
College of CharlestonCAA1.841.7272.4172.410.830.77
HamptonMEAC1.821.7041.6743.27-0.30-0.23
Air ForceMWC1.791.6734.6233.65-0.55-0.55
Grambling St.SWAC1.791.6741.6743.84-0.30-0.21
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.781.6782.1482.141.151.07
VirginiaACC1.761.6466.6767.050.590.56
CharlotteCUSA1.721.6140.0040.14-0.34-0.32
MercerSC1.721.6140.7441.56-0.32-0.27
PresbyterianBSth1.721.6111.5411.54-1.33-1.24
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.260.2919.2322.18-0.16-0.16
Delaware St.MEAC0.290.2625.0026.00-0.15-0.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.260.2333.3335.14-0.09-0.07
HowardMEAC0.230.2018.5220.52-0.15-0.12
Savannah St.MEAC0.200.2036.0035.98-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.2046.1546.81-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.2039.2939.29-0.05-0.04
ElonCAA0.210.1955.1755.170.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.180.1751.8551.850.010.01
DelawareCAA0.180.1634.4834.48-0.06-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.150.1650.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.150.1665.3865.550.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.1620.8321.37-0.11-0.09
George WashingtonA100.180.1655.1754.140.020.01
VillanovaBE0.180.1690.0089.570.140.13
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1525.9326.04-0.06-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1548.1547.90-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1530.7730.93-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.160.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.160.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1453.5753.570.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.160.1446.1545.04-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.150.1425.9325.45-0.07-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.1470.3769.030.060.05
James MadisonCAA0.150.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.06
MassachusettsA100.150.1348.2847.58-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.1157.1457.140.010.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1136.0040.25-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1153.5754.970.010.01
RiderMAAC0.130.1154.8454.840.010.01
North FloridaASun0.090.1133.3333.33-0.03-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1155.1754.740.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1121.4322.56-0.07-0.06
SamfordSC0.090.1153.5752.980.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1129.6331.85-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.090.1132.1431.69-0.03-0.04
NJITASun0.120.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.120.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.120.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.1167.8666.120.030.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1155.5656.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.120.1160.0060.000.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.1125.9325.17-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.120.1153.5752.450.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1182.7682.760.080.07
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1158.3359.230.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.1182.7681.210.060.07
Texas St.SB0.120.1156.0054.920.010.01
PennIvy0.120.1148.0049.55-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.090.1151.7250.150.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0977.7877.780.050.05
FurmanSC0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
VMISC0.090.0915.3816.50-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0944.8345.81-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0832.0030.44-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.100.0825.0025.17-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0846.4345.93-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0857.1457.140.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0860.7163.340.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0851.8551.280.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.0858.6258.150.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0878.5778.180.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0829.6328.06-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.090.0813.7913.43-0.07-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0825.9325.10-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0857.1455.730.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0850.0052.370.000.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0856.6757.420.010.01
IowaB100.090.0855.1754.140.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0862.0762.540.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0871.4371.670.040.04
George MasonA100.060.0860.7159.910.010.02
La SalleA100.090.0851.8553.370.000.01
OklahomaB120.090.0835.7135.48-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0867.8668.280.020.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0879.3177.540.050.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.3178.510.050.04
YaleIvy0.090.0858.3360.030.010.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0860.0060.000.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0624.0025.26-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0659.2658.100.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.067.698.10-0.03-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0626.9228.27-0.02-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0654.1752.440.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0621.4322.28-0.04-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0614.8114.35-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0667.8668.870.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0617.2420.08-0.02-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0623.0822.49-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0664.2964.650.020.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0644.4445.74-0.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0679.3179.350.040.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0685.7186.430.040.04
AkronMAC0.060.0678.5778.180.040.03
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0655.1755.170.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0662.9663.840.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0657.6957.830.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0648.2847.22-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0650.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0679.3179.090.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0646.1546.13-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0686.2186.570.020.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0648.0046.19-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.060.0651.8551.300.000.00
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.4833.87-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0644.4445.15-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0651.8551.850.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0655.5655.160.010.01
UABCUSA0.060.0550.0052.300.000.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0575.8674.710.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0546.6745.71-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0575.8673.450.020.03
CornellIvy0.030.0523.0823.48-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.030.0569.5767.060.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0551.7251.720.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0542.3141.71-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0579.3179.060.040.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0550.0049.680.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0540.0038.77-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0521.4321.43-0.04-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0540.0039.27-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0565.5265.520.010.02
St. John'sBE0.060.0544.8343.89-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0552.0053.480.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0583.3383.330.020.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0571.4370.190.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0586.6786.670.050.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0572.0072.040.030.02
DePaulBE0.060.0531.0330.04-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0540.0041.22-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.060.0565.5265.140.020.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0559.2659.260.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0535.7136.08-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.060.0548.1546.78-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.060.0557.1456.900.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0516.0016.70-0.04-0.03
USCP120.060.0572.4173.260.030.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0358.6257.980.010.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0375.0075.780.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0360.7161.450.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0051.170.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0375.8676.270.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0357.1456.880.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0323.0824.04-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0074.310.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0342.3142.60-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0344.4445.02-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.0436.94-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.5753.810.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0366.6765.560.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0355.1754.850.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0380.7781.310.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0364.2963.720.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.440.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0359.2658.390.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0344.4445.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0331.0329.49-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0367.8666.480.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0375.8674.140.020.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0371.4369.290.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0350.0049.020.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0342.8642.02-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4639.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0379.3179.350.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0330.4330.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0367.8666.170.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.0760.370.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0348.2847.91-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0362.0762.620.010.01