East Carolina

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	100.0
Current RPI:	100
Expected SOS:	92
Current SOS:	92
Current Record:	14-12
Expected Record:	14-12
Current Conf Record:	9-8
Expected Conf Record:	9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-2
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	132
Expected OOC SOS:	129

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-12	100.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	76-73	W	100%
11-20	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	82-72	W	100%
11-26	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	53-62	W	100%
12-1	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	76-64	L	0%
12-15	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	93-87	L	0%
12-18	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	62-60	W	100%
12-22	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	A	88-81	L	0%
12-29	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	74-63	W	100%
1-2	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	81-86	L	0%
1-9	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	67-54	L	0%
1-12	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	H	88-85	W	100%
1-16	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	H	89-78	W	100%
1-19	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	77-56	L	0%
1-23	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	85-91	W	100%
1-26	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	H	67-68	L	0%
1-30	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	H	68-75	L	0%
2-2	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	63-79	W	100%
2-9	Central Florida (103.0)	CUSA	A	83-73	L	0%
2-13	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	H	74-61	W	100%
2-16	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	82-86	L	0%
2-20	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	63-72	W	100%
2-23	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	A	69-72	W	100%
3-2	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	A	88-69	L	0%
3-6	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	H	88-85	W	100%
3-9	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	H	86-79	W	100%
3-14	Tulsa (127.0)	CUSA	A	79-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Carolina	CUSA	26.17	26.17	54.39	54.39	2.30	2.30
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	4.73	4.73	70.00	70.00	1.89	1.89
Memphis	CUSA	4.71	4.71	87.50	87.50	3.54	3.54
UAB	CUSA	4.67	4.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	4.58	4.58	37.93	37.93	-1.11	-1.11
Central Florida	CUSA	4.54	4.54	62.96	62.96	1.18	1.18
Tulsa	CUSA	4.52	4.52	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Tulane	CUSA	2.72	2.72	58.06	58.06	0.44	0.44
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.70	2.70	54.84	54.84	0.26	0.26
Houston	CUSA	2.66	2.66	62.07	62.07	0.64	0.64
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.66	2.66	46.67	46.67	-0.18	-0.18
Rice	CUSA	2.63	2.63	14.29	14.29	-1.88	-1.88
Appalachian St.	SC	2.02	2.02	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
Campbell	BSth	2.02	2.02	34.48	34.48	-0.63	-0.63
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.02	2.02	62.07	62.07	0.49	0.49
North Carolina	ACC	2.02	2.02	68.75	68.75	0.76	0.76
NC Greensboro	SC	1.99	1.99	25.00	25.00	-0.99	-0.99
Georgia St.	CAA	1.98	1.98	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Charlotte	A10	1.95	1.95	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Massachusetts	A10	1.95	1.95	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.92	1.92	67.74	67.74	0.68	0.68
Georgia Southern	SC	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Christian	B12	0.22	0.22	32.26	32.26	-0.08	-0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.21	0.21	81.82	81.82	0.14	0.14
Elon	SC	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.19	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Longwood	BSth	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.11	-0.11
Northeastern	CAA	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Davidson	SC	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	A10	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
South Florida	BE	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.09	-0.09
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Butler	A10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01