live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:198.7
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:97
Current Record:10-14
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15138.30.06%
15-16155.61.04%
14-17170.69.94%
13-18186.127.85%
12-19202.337.10%
11-20219.020.47%
10-21236.13.53%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Grambling St. (346.1)SWACH61-53W100%0.0
11-16Charlotte (238.9)CUSAH88-74W100%0.0
11-20California (43.8)P12A70-62L0%0.0
11-23San Diego St. (54.0)MWCA79-54L0%0.0
11-26Arkansas Little Rock (49.3)SBN46-54L0%0.0
11-27Stetson (303.6)ASunN93-73W100%0.0
12-1Florida Atlantic (280.3)CUSAH74-48W100%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (326.3)ASunH82-71W100%0.0
12-7College of Charleston (95.1)CAAA77-73L0%0.0
12-13North Carolina A&T (334.8)MEACH71-60W100%0.0
12-16UNC Wilmington (62.0)CAAH78-73W100%0.0
12-20James Madison (84.4)CAAA67-61L0%0.0
12-22South Carolina St. (207.1)MEACH98-71W100%0.0
1-2UCF (196.9)AmerH68-71L0%0.0
1-5Tulsa (55.7)AmerA55-43L0%0.0
1-9Temple (84.7)AmerA78-60L0%0.0
1-13SMU (16.4)AmerH55-79L0%0.0
1-16UCF (196.9)AmerA89-69L0%0.0
1-19Tulsa (55.7)AmerH69-84L0%0.0
1-24Memphis (120.6)AmerA83-84W100%0.0
1-27Temple (84.7)AmerH64-61W100%0.0
1-30Houston (95.7)AmerH93-97L0%0.0
2-7Connecticut (36.1)AmerA85-67L0%0.0
2-10Tulane (228.6)AmerH92-100L0%0.0
2-13Cincinnati (47.3)AmerA0-04%-18.5
2-16South Florida (245.3)AmerH0-076%7.5
2-21SMU (16.4)AmerA0-03%-20.5
2-24Tulane (228.6)AmerA0-042%-2.2
2-27Cincinnati (47.3)AmerH0-014%-11.9
3-2South Florida (245.3)AmerA0-053%0.9
3-6Memphis (120.6)AmerH0-031%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.3826.2736.0035.38-7.39-7.68
MemphisAmer2.554.0360.8761.090.550.89
UCFAmer4.624.0245.0040.58-0.46-0.76
TulsaAmer4.714.0063.6462.211.290.98
South FloridaAmer0.594.0020.0018.66-0.35-2.51
TulaneAmer2.573.9733.3331.88-0.86-1.44
CincinnatiAmer0.633.9772.0070.210.281.60
TempleAmer4.533.9765.0060.411.360.83
SMUAmer2.623.9686.3681.781.902.52
ConnecticutAmer2.572.4672.7371.661.171.07
HoustonAmer2.572.4669.5766.881.010.83
College of CharlestonCAA2.221.7661.9059.480.530.33
James MadisonCAA2.181.7369.5768.440.850.64
StetsonASun2.231.7325.0028.80-1.11-0.73
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.271.7330.4334.26-0.89-0.54
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.171.7280.0076.231.300.90
USC UpstateASun2.181.7023.8124.14-1.14-0.88
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.221.6923.8128.15-1.16-0.74
Arkansas Little RockSB2.221.6990.0086.441.771.24
Grambling St.SWAC2.171.6915.7918.80-1.48-1.06
South Carolina St.MEAC2.171.6754.5556.150.200.21
CharlotteCUSA2.171.6736.3642.25-0.59-0.26
San Diego St.MWC2.181.6768.1869.000.790.63
CaliforniaP122.131.6463.6461.590.580.38
DelawareCAA0.280.2821.7423.32-0.16-0.15
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.2331.8236.14-0.07-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.190.2050.0049.850.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.230.2065.2264.230.070.06
NortheasternCAA0.240.2045.8346.63-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.230.2052.1750.420.010.00
NJITASun0.100.1754.1755.260.010.02
DrexelCAA0.280.1713.6418.18-0.20-0.11
TowsonCAA0.190.1765.2259.750.060.03
William & MaryCAA0.190.1771.4369.840.080.07
SouthernSWAC0.190.1661.9065.310.050.05
UABCUSA0.140.1682.6179.390.090.10
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.1638.1037.70-0.02-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1618.1821.12-0.11-0.09
George WashingtonA100.090.1675.0071.920.050.07
Southern MissCUSA0.180.1631.5832.01-0.07-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1686.9680.370.100.10
LipscombASun0.190.1525.0029.28-0.10-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.149.0917.14-0.11-0.09
FIUCUSA0.190.1440.9145.29-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.230.149.0912.25-0.19-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1468.1871.310.050.06
Ohio St.B100.190.1460.0055.540.040.02
DavidsonA100.230.1461.9058.060.060.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.190.1471.4368.750.080.05
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1326.0929.18-0.07-0.06
UtahP120.230.1370.8368.500.100.05
MarshallCUSA0.180.1350.0051.190.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1247.6252.03-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1221.7423.40-0.08-0.06
North FloridaASun0.150.1265.2267.120.040.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1240.0038.97-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.190.1131.8230.05-0.07-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.190.1134.7833.05-0.06-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1136.8442.89-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.1124.0025.67-0.03-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.1125.0025.09-0.04-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.130.1159.0961.310.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1125.0033.20-0.07-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1125.0030.04-0.09-0.04
WyomingMWC0.130.1143.4842.47-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.1119.0525.90-0.03-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.1143.4850.66-0.010.00
TroySB0.100.1123.8126.72-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.050.1128.5729.66-0.02-0.04
ButlerBE0.090.1170.8368.990.040.04
ColoradoP120.140.1169.5765.310.050.03
MichiganB100.140.1170.8366.720.060.04
North CarolinaACC0.140.1183.3378.400.090.06
Oregon St.P120.130.1161.9056.450.030.01
StanfordP120.140.1150.0046.530.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0968.1865.160.060.03
NavyPat0.140.0964.0064.480.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0952.0050.230.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.140.0954.5552.540.010.00
CampbellBSth0.140.0828.5729.64-0.06-0.03
West VirginiaB120.140.0879.1778.060.080.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0829.1733.74-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.140.0856.5255.730.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0842.8646.35-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.0827.2731.06-0.06-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.140.0856.0052.840.020.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.0814.2920.65-0.10-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0871.4369.430.040.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0852.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0813.6413.63-0.03-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.0810.0013.14-0.11-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0828.5731.30-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0865.2260.580.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0839.1341.11-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0833.3333.07-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0856.5262.820.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0845.4546.21-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0878.2676.880.030.04
New HampshireAE0.090.0857.1453.980.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0845.0049.23-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.35-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0650.0054.190.000.01
MarquetteBE0.100.0664.0057.920.030.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.26-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.16-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.100.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0650.0051.280.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.69-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0636.3638.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.090.0662.5059.050.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.23-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0660.8760.530.010.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0663.6461.640.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.090.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.065.007.22-0.09-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.760.010.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0640.9139.26-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.690.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.82-0.02-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.100.0633.3334.19-0.03-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0636.8437.57-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0672.7371.660.040.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0652.1755.090.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0647.6249.26-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0582.6177.520.060.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0582.6181.130.060.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0547.8350.01-0.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0531.5831.04-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0550.0051.910.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0550.0049.600.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0560.8760.750.020.01
La SalleA100.090.0519.0520.33-0.06-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0525.0027.23-0.05-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0537.5037.41-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0563.6461.480.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0545.8342.32-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.090.0538.8937.69-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0583.3381.320.060.03
TCUB120.050.0545.8339.35-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0587.5086.870.000.04
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0573.9176.740.040.03
WisconsinB100.090.0562.5056.960.020.01
YaleIvy0.050.0573.6874.680.020.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0576.0076.320.000.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.1778.330.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0554.1751.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0556.0056.490.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0550.0045.820.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.040.0520.8323.19-0.02-0.03
FurmanSC0.090.0554.1754.080.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0554.1751.980.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0570.8368.000.000.02
IUPUISum0.040.0540.0039.76-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0575.0072.630.000.02
LibertyBSth0.040.0534.7836.51-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0542.8642.01-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0569.5769.040.020.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0562.5058.920.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0543.4843.76-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0552.0050.780.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0527.7834.45-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0550.0049.050.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.040.0586.9682.580.030.03
OregonP120.050.0582.6179.250.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0528.0030.70-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0570.8368.100.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0513.6415.80-0.03-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0514.2924.86-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0572.2275.620.020.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0566.6762.560.030.01
VCUA100.000.0573.9174.060.000.03
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5060.110.010.01
XavierBE0.000.0587.5081.860.000.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.370.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.590.020.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.330.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.100.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.360.010.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.400.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0343.4837.81-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.900.020.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.39-0.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.1455.290.010.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.13-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.300.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5257.000.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0366.6766.330.010.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.70-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0340.0045.48-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0324.0024.57-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0363.6462.150.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0333.3335.05-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.040.0380.0077.960.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0358.3357.220.010.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0360.8762.080.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0314.2915.45-0.03-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0313.0413.56-0.03-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.060.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.690.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.06-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.380.030.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6245.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.210.020.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.41-0.010.00
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.270.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0334.7835.64-0.01-0.01
USCP120.000.0378.2673.050.000.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.01
Washington St.P120.000.0336.3631.98-0.00-0.01