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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:213.0
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:150
Current SOS:150
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18213.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH72-57W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH61-51W100%0.0
11-17Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA76-64L0%0.0
11-20Stetson (328.0)ASunH73-50W100%0.0
11-22Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH82-62W100%0.0
11-25Mercer (192.0)SCN66-70L0%0.0
11-26Air Force (250.0)MWCN63-70W100%0.0
11-29Hampton (283.0)MEACH68-48W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH69-56W100%0.0
12-6Virginia (18.0)ACCA76-53L0%0.0
12-15College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH35-53L0%0.0
12-20UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA81-71L0%0.0
12-22Presbyterian (347.0)BSthH76-56W100%0.0
12-28South Florida (316.0)AmerH60-49W100%0.0
12-31SMU (13.0)AmerH44-75L0%0.0
1-3UCF (68.0)AmerA48-45L0%0.0
1-7Temple (137.0)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
1-11Houston (54.0)AmerH58-74L0%0.0
1-15Cincinnati (12.0)AmerH46-55L0%0.0
1-22Connecticut (118.0)AmerA72-65L0%0.0
1-25Tulsa (134.0)AmerH69-66W100%0.0
1-28Memphis (120.0)AmerA57-50L0%0.0
2-1SMU (13.0)AmerA86-46L0%0.0
2-4Tulane (296.0)AmerH74-65W100%0.0
2-11South Florida (316.0)AmerA64-57L0%0.0
2-15Temple (137.0)AmerH78-64W100%0.0
2-18UCF (68.0)AmerH58-61L0%0.0
2-21Tulane (296.0)AmerA73-76W100%0.0
2-26Tulsa (134.0)AmerA74-66L0%0.0
3-1Connecticut (118.0)AmerH66-62W100%0.0
3-5Houston (54.0)AmerA73-51L0%0.0
3-9Temple (137.0)AmerN69-80W100%0.0
3-10SMU (13.0)AmerN81-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.3726.3740.4640.46-5.03-5.03
SMUAmer5.335.3387.1087.103.963.96
TempleAmer5.265.2651.7251.720.180.18
ConnecticutAmer3.913.9146.6746.67-0.26-0.26
UCFAmer3.913.9163.3363.331.041.04
TulsaAmer3.843.8446.6746.67-0.26-0.26
South FloridaAmer3.843.8421.4321.43-2.19-2.19
TulaneAmer3.833.8320.6920.69-2.25-2.25
HoustonAmer3.813.8165.5265.521.181.18
CincinnatiAmer2.562.5684.8584.851.781.78
MemphisAmer2.442.4458.0658.060.390.39
Florida A&MMEAC1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.651.653.453.45-1.53-1.53
College of CharlestonCAA1.631.6371.8871.880.710.71
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.621.6275.8675.860.840.84
StetsonASun1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
HamptonMEAC1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.581.5883.8783.871.071.07
Air ForceMWC1.571.5733.3333.33-0.52-0.52
Grambling St.SWAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
VirginiaACC1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
CharlotteCUSA1.521.5239.2939.29-0.32-0.32
MercerSC1.521.5241.3841.38-0.26-0.26
PresbyterianBSth1.521.5211.1111.11-1.18-1.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.2837.5037.50-0.07-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
HowardMEAC0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1840.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
ElonCAA0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.170.1757.5857.580.030.03
DelawareCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
VillanovaBE0.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1619.2319.23-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
YaleIvy0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
George MasonA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.020.02
StanfordP120.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0718.5218.52-0.04-0.04
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
UC DavisBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0229.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0210.0010.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01