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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:234.2
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:334
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12113.70.14%
15-13130.00.67%
14-14147.41.71%
13-15165.94.30%
12-16185.48.34%
11-17205.314.67%
10-18225.618.38%
9-19244.619.76%
8-20262.615.51%
7-21278.49.57%
6-22294.74.98%
5-23305.81.44%
4-24317.10.41%
3-25324.20.10%
2-26329.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthH79-83L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (83.4)HorzN49-66L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (254.7)MWCN52-58W100%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (319.9)NECH0-080%10.1
12-3Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAA0-038%-3.7
12-7North Carolina (17.8)ACCA0-03%-23.2
12-13James Madison (214.3)CAAH0-061%3.3
12-20UNC Wilmington (169.9)CAAA0-033%-5.4
12-22Florida A&M (344.8)MEACH0-090%15.6
12-28UNC Greensboro (323.1)SCH0-080%10.0
12-31Tulane (236.1)AmerH0-060%3.0
1-3South Florida (116.3)AmerA0-019%-10.4
1-6Cincinnati (75.6)AmerA0-014%-13.1
1-14Houston (134.2)AmerH0-039%-3.4
1-17SMU (36.8)AmerA0-06%-18.6
1-24Tulsa (85.1)AmerH0-030%-6.4
1-28Memphis (59.7)AmerA0-08%-16.7
2-1Cincinnati (75.6)AmerH0-031%-5.9
2-4Connecticut (24.9)AmerA0-05%-19.6
2-7UCF (187.3)AmerH0-051%0.2
2-10Memphis (59.7)AmerH0-021%-9.6
2-14Temple (133.4)AmerA0-022%-9.3
2-18Tulsa (85.1)AmerA0-013%-13.6
2-21South Florida (116.3)AmerH0-039%-3.2
2-25Connecticut (24.9)AmerH0-015%-12.4
2-28UCF (187.3)AmerA0-028%-7.0
3-5Temple (133.4)AmerH0-043%-2.1
3-8Houston (134.2)AmerA0-019%-10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer32.6426.3529.4130.56-13.44-10.24
ConnecticutAmer0.004.4575.0068.910.001.68
UCFAmer0.004.45100.0047.990.00-0.18
TempleAmer0.004.4360.0048.720.00-0.11
South FloridaAmer0.004.4375.0053.100.000.27
HoustonAmer0.004.4366.6759.550.000.85
MemphisAmer0.004.4350.0066.020.001.42
CincinnatiAmer0.004.43100.0057.820.000.69
TulsaAmer0.004.4275.0057.900.000.70
SMUAmer0.002.7940.0065.57-0.000.87
TulaneAmer0.002.7966.6738.370.00-0.65
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.8866.6746.400.00-0.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.850.0037.44-0.00-0.46
James MadisonCAA0.001.8575.0048.050.00-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.850.0028.29-0.00-0.80
Central ConnecticutNEC0.001.850.0030.76-0.00-0.71
North CarolinaACC0.001.82100.0068.880.000.69
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.790.0021.76-0.00-1.01
Fresno St.MWC16.671.790.0026.27-16.67-0.85
Green BayHorz16.671.7950.0068.530.000.66
UNC AshevilleBSth16.671.790.0048.50-16.67-0.05
HofstraCAA0.000.2160.0066.760.000.07
TowsonCAA0.000.2180.0058.000.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1960.0059.230.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.1933.3344.17-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.1950.0043.080.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1840.0052.47-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.18100.0061.980.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.180.0018.08-0.00-0.11
DukeACC0.000.18100.0084.950.000.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1620.0031.41-0.00-0.06
StetsonASun0.000.160.0032.66-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1666.6754.040.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1520.0030.80-0.00-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.000.1540.0039.52-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.150.0028.11-0.00-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.000.1575.0056.430.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.150.0064.97-0.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.130.0031.79-0.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1375.0056.990.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0020.71-0.00-0.08
DavidsonA100.000.1350.0053.610.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1366.6749.540.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0031.74-0.00-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1380.0063.110.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1325.0036.61-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.13100.0083.950.000.09
WyomingMWC0.000.13100.0067.780.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0024.22-0.00-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1250.0050.520.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.12100.0087.570.000.09
DrexelCAA0.000.1220.0035.41-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.12100.0072.230.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.1250.0055.150.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1225.0044.79-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.120.0043.63-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.120.0044.90-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.1025.0029.87-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1040.0038.29-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1066.6751.550.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC2.780.1066.6757.980.930.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1025.0050.46-0.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1033.3352.31-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1075.0055.300.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1050.0043.100.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1025.0031.38-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC2.780.1060.0047.180.56-0.01
VMISC0.000.1033.3338.23-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0966.6774.280.000.05
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3330.02-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0053.43-0.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.500.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0085.190.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0017.79-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0039.00-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0940.0033.07-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.72-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0980.0070.940.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0050.30-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.54-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0920.0043.52-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.770.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3346.11-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0925.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0933.3333.44-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0740.0058.90-0.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0067.050.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0725.0037.50-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0720.0029.38-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0733.3354.56-0.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0766.6756.780.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0733.3345.50-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0068.250.000.02
EvansvilleMVC4.860.0766.6762.901.620.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.61-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6749.780.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0725.0040.73-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0081.280.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.570.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.600.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0060.560.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3323.56-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.06100.0053.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0633.3353.13-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.850.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.34-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.280.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6756.850.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0040.15-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0061.090.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0680.0076.700.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6731.76-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.500.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0030.030.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0052.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.45-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.43-0.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0025.51-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0053.310.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0074.680.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0675.0071.680.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.82-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0053.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0066.080.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.120.000.04
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0675.0065.600.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3337.42-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0666.6760.800.000.01
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.940.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0660.0037.460.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0078.020.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0019.97-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0027.00-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
WisconsinB102.780.03100.0084.262.780.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0060.830.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0375.0055.820.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.750.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0034.200.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.11-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky2.080.0320.0050.95-1.250.00
OhioMAC0.000.0366.6752.600.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3330.38-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC2.080.0366.6754.750.690.00
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0073.980.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0340.0047.31-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0045.09-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0046.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.290.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.550.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.400.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0067.55-0.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.20-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0050.700.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0366.6744.670.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.95-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0057.70-0.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.960.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0325.0039.71-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.22-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0072.100.000.01
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0028.76-0.00-0.01