East Carolina

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	158.4
Current RPI:	163
Expected SOS:	73
Current SOS:	102
Current Record:	8-10
Expected Record:	10-15
Current Conf Record:	3-6
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.25%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	152
Expected OOC SOS:	182

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-10	83.5	0.02%
14-11	97.2	0.46%
13-12	112.8	3.49%
12-13	128.4	12.97%
11-14	145.8	28.44%
10-15	165.8	32.00%
9-16	186.2	18.67%
8-17	203.6	3.94%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	76-74	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Appalachian St. (249.5)	SC	N	47-67	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	A	63-58	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	H	64-76	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Massachusetts (76.4)	A10	H	58-63	L	0%	0.0
12-16	NC Greensboro (256.3)	SC	A	62-71	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	76-51	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	69-55	W	100%	0.0
12-29	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	84-76	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	78-76	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	63-81	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	67-70	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	70-56	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	82-76	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	60-72	L	0%	0.0
1-28	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	A	66-73	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	H	62-43	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	82-68	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	H	0-0		28%	-6.4
2-11	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	A	0-0		23%	-7.9
2-18	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	A	0-0		30%	-5.7
2-22	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	0-0		11%	-13.1
2-25	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-29	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	0-0		46%	-1.2
3-3	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	0-0		37%	-3.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Carolina	CUSA	26.29	26.21	40.48	39.30	-5.01	-5.61
Memphis	CUSA	0.66	4.80	69.57	70.91	0.26	2.01
Central Florida	CUSA	3.22	4.78	70.00	65.19	1.29	1.45
Marshall	CUSA	0.51	4.76	59.09	59.30	0.09	0.88
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	5.68	4.76	84.21	80.86	3.89	2.94
UAB	CUSA	3.17	4.76	42.86	41.55	-0.45	-0.80
Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.17	2.69	40.91	41.35	-0.58	-0.47
Tulsa	CUSA	3.17	2.69	59.09	57.64	0.58	0.41
Southern Methodist	CUSA	3.16	2.69	40.00	39.21	-0.63	-0.58
Houston	CUSA	3.15	2.69	45.00	42.58	-0.32	-0.40
Rice	CUSA	3.03	2.69	50.00	48.18	0.00	-0.10
Tulane	CUSA	0.58	2.69	61.90	58.43	0.14	0.45
Campbell	BSth	3.05	2.19	54.17	54.12	0.25	0.18
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.04	2.15	36.36	40.16	-0.83	-0.42
Charlotte	A10	2.92	2.14	47.62	47.64	-0.14	-0.10
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.95	2.14	76.47	74.97	1.56	1.07
Appalachian St.	SC	2.95	2.10	36.84	40.80	-0.78	-0.39
NC Greensboro	SC	2.92	2.07	36.36	34.66	-0.80	-0.64
Old Dominion	CAA	2.84	2.07	58.33	56.90	0.47	0.29
Massachusetts	A10	2.84	2.03	72.73	67.50	1.29	0.71
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.84	2.03	41.18	45.68	-0.50	-0.18
High Point	BSth	0.32	0.36	31.82	32.75	-0.12	-0.12
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.33	0.25	33.33	37.25	-0.11	-0.06
College of Charleston	SC	0.33	0.25	58.33	59.98	0.06	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.33	0.22	55.00	60.33	0.03	0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.25	0.22	68.18	67.64	0.09	0.08
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.25	0.21	45.00	44.15	-0.02	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.18	0.21	34.78	34.61	-0.05	-0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.39	0.20	69.57	68.90	0.15	0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.25	0.20	65.00	60.02	0.08	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.20	69.57	73.28	0.00	0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	100.00	94.55	0.20	0.18
Liberty	BSth	0.19	0.18	27.27	27.21	-0.09	-0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.27	0.18	40.91	43.66	-0.05	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.19	0.18	27.27	35.02	-0.09	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.26	0.18	8.70	13.10	-0.21	-0.13
Elon	SC	0.19	0.18	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.17	20.83	20.60	-0.07	-0.10
George Washington	A10	0.19	0.17	34.78	32.08	-0.06	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.24	0.17	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.18	0.17	80.00	78.06	0.11	0.09
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.17	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.05
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.17	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.16	80.95	77.38	0.04	0.09
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.16	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.15	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.20	0.15	9.52	11.44	-0.16	-0.11
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.15	10.00	14.93	-0.10	-0.10
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.14	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.02
Samford	SC	0.20	0.14	33.33	35.26	-0.07	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.14	34.78	37.24	-0.06	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.25	0.14	76.19	76.76	0.13	0.07
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.14	72.73	71.71	0.08	0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.19	0.14	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.20	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.26	0.14	66.67	60.80	0.09	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.14	87.50	85.41	0.13	0.10
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.18	0.13	62.50	62.49	0.05	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	19.05	25.52	-0.08	-0.06
Towson	CAA	0.23	0.13	4.00	5.26	-0.21	-0.12
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.22	0.11	19.05	22.37	-0.14	-0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.11	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.11	20.00	19.96	-0.09	-0.07
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.20	0.11	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.13	0.11	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.20	0.11	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.14	0.11	40.00	41.30	-0.03	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.10	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.10	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.10	16.67	23.02	-0.09	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.10	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.10	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.09
Temple	A10	0.13	0.10	77.27	75.06	0.07	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.20	0.10	42.86	43.45	-0.03	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.10	83.33	84.76	0.08	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.20	0.10	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.18	0.10	25.00	28.52	-0.09	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.10	30.43	31.43	-0.08	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.19	0.10	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.10	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.10	82.61	80.42	0.08	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.19	0.10	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.10	70.83	68.82	0.05	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.10	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.17	0.10	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.07	0.08	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.07	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.07	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.07	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.07	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.07	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.14	0.07	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.07	0.07	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.13	0.07	18.18	21.13	-0.08	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.13	0.07	22.22	27.62	-0.07	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.07	18.18	22.22	-0.08	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.07	69.57	65.15	0.05	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.07	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.13	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.07	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.00	0.07	30.00	37.30	-0.00	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.07	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
Denver	SB	0.13	0.07	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.07	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.07	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.07	17.39	22.00	-0.04	-0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.07	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.07	4.35	9.66	-0.06	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.06	0.07	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.07	35.00	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.07	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.07	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.07	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.07	17.39	24.41	-0.08	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.07	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.07	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.07	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.07	60.00	59.06	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.07	77.27	77.67	0.07	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.06	33.33	35.97	-0.00	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.06	76.00	72.50	0.06	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.00	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.00	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.00	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.00	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.00	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.05
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.04	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.04	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.04	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.04	25.00	37.58	-0.04	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.04	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.04	82.61	84.57	0.05	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.04	69.57	61.31	0.03	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.04	86.96	83.16	0.05	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.04	39.13	42.12	-0.00	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.04	15.00	15.73	-0.05	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.04	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.00	0.04	9.52	13.19	-0.00	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.07	0.04	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.04	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.04	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.07	0.04	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.07	0.04	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.04	19.05	24.61	-0.00	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.04	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.03	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.07	0.03	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.04	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.03	4.76	9.95	-0.05	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.03	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01