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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:216.3
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:217
Current Record:3-5
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1184.60.07%
17-12104.80.37%
16-13124.40.99%
15-14140.63.34%
14-15160.57.29%
13-16180.812.95%
12-17201.218.72%
11-18221.919.62%
10-19241.317.91%
9-20260.111.10%
8-21276.45.34%
7-22290.81.81%
6-23304.30.42%
5-24310.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNC Asheville (224.1)BSthH79-83L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (43.7)HorzN49-66L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (258.3)MWCN52-58W100%0.0
11-26Hawaii (219.5)BWN75-73L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (309.7)NECH74-59W100%0.0
12-3Florida Atlantic (175.4)CUSAA72-63L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina (11.6)ACCA108-64L0%0.0
12-13James Madison (122.0)CAAH70-58W100%0.0
12-20UNC Wilmington (119.0)CAAA0-021%-9.4
12-22Florida A&M (348.9)MEACH0-097%21.6
12-28UNC Greensboro (282.7)SCH0-073%7.0
12-31Tulane (152.3)AmerH0-055%1.4
1-3South Florida (169.1)AmerA0-028%-6.9
1-6Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA0-010%-15.3
1-14Houston (204.7)AmerH0-064%4.1
1-17SMU (35.6)AmerA0-07%-17.2
1-24Tulsa (100.2)AmerH0-043%-2.2
1-28Memphis (85.7)AmerA0-014%-12.7
2-1Cincinnati (49.1)AmerH0-029%-6.6
2-4Connecticut (71.3)AmerA0-011%-14.1
2-7UCF (253.3)AmerH0-076%8.3
2-10Memphis (85.7)AmerH0-037%-4.0
2-14Temple (105.5)AmerA0-020%-9.7
2-18Tulsa (100.2)AmerA0-018%-10.9
2-21South Florida (169.1)AmerH0-056%1.9
2-25Connecticut (71.3)AmerH0-032%-5.4
2-28UCF (253.3)AmerA0-048%-0.5
3-5Temple (105.5)AmerH0-047%-1.0
3-8Houston (204.7)AmerA0-035%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer27.9926.3232.3535.20-9.88-7.79
UCFAmer0.524.2855.5634.730.06-1.31
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2850.0056.040.000.52
MemphisAmer0.004.2755.5658.980.000.77
South FloridaAmer0.004.2744.4443.84-0.00-0.53
TempleAmer0.004.2763.6454.860.000.41
CincinnatiAmer0.004.2677.7868.390.001.57
HoustonAmer0.004.2671.4348.700.00-0.11
TulsaAmer0.004.2660.0055.830.000.50
SMUAmer0.002.6870.0070.560.001.10
TulaneAmer0.002.6887.5055.140.000.28
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.8150.0052.770.000.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA6.251.7940.0050.89-1.250.03
James MadisonCAA6.251.7977.7862.813.470.46
UNC GreensboroSC0.311.7822.2238.13-0.17-0.42
Central ConnecticutNEC6.251.7825.0031.87-3.12-0.65
North CarolinaACC6.251.7566.6770.682.080.73
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.720.0012.68-0.00-1.29
Fresno St.MWC6.251.7233.3330.87-2.08-0.66
Green BayHorz6.251.7271.4377.652.680.95
HawaiiBW6.251.7262.5053.101.560.11
UNC AshevilleBSth6.251.720.0043.00-6.25-0.24
HofstraCAA0.000.2077.7878.540.000.12
TowsonCAA0.350.2066.6751.430.120.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.2044.4470.08-0.030.08
DetroitHorz0.000.1844.4448.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.450.1830.0037.28-0.18-0.05
ElonCAA0.520.1837.5047.87-0.13-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1750.0044.900.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.170.007.39-0.00-0.15
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1781.8264.110.000.05
DukeACC0.000.17100.0087.140.000.13
High PointBSth0.350.1662.5056.410.090.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1618.1821.30-0.00-0.09
StetsonASun0.520.1510.0027.42-0.42-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.350.1520.0034.08-0.21-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1511.1144.04-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.1560.0064.620.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.1550.0037.510.00-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.1557.1456.750.000.02
CampbellBSth0.310.1225.0044.59-0.16-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.310.1220.0026.57-0.19-0.06
DavidsonA100.310.1287.5077.020.230.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1244.4445.64-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1210.0018.58-0.00-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1266.6762.620.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1216.6719.68-0.00-0.07
Boise St.MWC0.000.1275.0068.680.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.1277.7873.370.000.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.350.1240.0046.73-0.07-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1225.0037.13-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1266.6757.860.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1288.8963.660.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1244.4445.59-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1270.0072.830.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.08
BryantNEC0.000.1128.5747.24-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1133.3344.71-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1150.0062.270.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1114.2933.54-0.00-0.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1025.0034.77-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.450.0971.4363.890.190.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0920.0041.46-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0945.4544.07-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.310.0950.0055.810.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.310.0942.8638.75-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4451.04-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.310.0937.5046.78-0.08-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0937.5064.43-0.000.03
VMISC0.000.0933.3339.22-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0980.0069.620.000.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0942.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.350.0920.0038.24-0.21-0.02
HarvardIvy0.520.0985.7172.940.370.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.28-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.450.0950.0038.000.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0910.0018.01-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0918.1835.99-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1828.02-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0920.0029.81-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0955.5638.600.05-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0972.7367.750.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.390.0918.1846.16-0.25-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6743.780.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0922.2240.44-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0014.79-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0918.1844.62-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0085.330.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.0990.0090.940.000.07
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.750.000.00
FloridaSEC0.310.0960.0064.930.060.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.0830.0039.44-0.12-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.0850.0058.360.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0757.1470.590.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0737.5050.40-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0728.5747.31-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.450.0760.0064.610.090.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.63-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.20-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.390.0662.5071.290.100.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.07-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.28-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.020.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0642.8643.10-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.500.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.600.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.660.0610.0030.45-0.53-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.700.0677.7871.110.390.03
MaristMAAC0.660.0610.0018.61-0.53-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.59-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.58-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7876.240.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
Miami FLACC0.390.0690.0075.520.310.03
PittsburghACC0.350.0666.6752.340.120.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.050.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.560.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0620.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.340.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0655.5661.790.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.02-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.600.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.84-0.00-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.20-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.350.0644.4456.51-0.040.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.580.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0677.7870.120.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.400.000.02
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.17-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0650.0049.960.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.310.0690.0084.680.250.04
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0655.5640.500.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.690.000.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3354.74-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.080.000.04
VirginiaACC0.310.06100.0085.310.310.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.95-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0680.0070.960.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.450.0362.5064.260.110.01
BYUWCC0.350.0366.6767.300.120.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0011.40-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.390.0320.0019.99-0.23-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.390.0375.0071.730.200.01
GeorgiaSEC0.520.0362.5059.510.130.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.79-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.350.0350.0053.850.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.390.0390.9188.390.320.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8638.11-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.960.000.01
CaliforniaP120.310.0390.0066.690.250.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0336.3644.53-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.91-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.12-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.550.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0336.3664.92-0.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.91-0.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.310.0340.0050.78-0.060.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5757.26-0.000.00
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0038.180.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.310.0375.0058.430.160.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5065.040.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.62-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.310.0388.8955.910.240.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.310.0328.5736.95-0.13-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.79-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.310.0380.0072.550.190.01
ColgatePat0.310.0320.0043.08-0.19-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.350.0344.4439.74-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.350.0350.0051.050.000.00
IowaB100.310.0372.7362.590.140.01
KentuckySEC0.310.03100.0094.790.310.02
MarylandB100.350.0390.9167.660.280.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3640.98-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.890.000.01
RichmondA100.310.0355.5657.090.030.00
RiderMAAC0.350.0350.0052.800.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.800.000.00
UCLAP120.310.0372.7357.280.140.00
UMBCAE0.350.0310.0020.91-0.28-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01