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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:262.8
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:169
Current Record:6-12
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:1-6
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:302



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14150.00.01%
14-15166.20.09%
13-16194.20.53%
12-17212.32.98%
11-18229.09.76%
10-19247.221.46%
9-20264.429.89%
8-21280.823.58%
7-22294.510.07%
6-23305.41.62%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNC Asheville (215.5)BSthH79-83L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (59.1)HorzN49-66L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (221.9)MWCN52-58W100%0.0
11-26Hawaii (186.4)BWN75-73L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (342.7)NECH74-59W100%0.0
12-3Florida Atlantic (237.4)CUSAA72-63L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina (9.7)ACCA108-64L0%0.0
12-13James Madison (157.8)CAAH70-58W100%0.0
12-20UNC Wilmington (159.2)CAAA66-54L0%0.0
12-22Florida A&M (350.6)MEACH75-57W100%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (328.2)SCH71-50W100%0.0
12-31Tulane (176.6)AmerH59-67L0%0.0
1-3South Florida (234.3)AmerA58-50L0%0.0
1-6Cincinnati (26.3)AmerA69-48L0%0.0
1-14Houston (257.9)AmerH66-61W100%0.0
1-17SMU (18.5)AmerA77-54L0%0.0
1-24Tulsa (40.5)AmerH64-66L0%0.0
1-28Memphis (73.6)AmerA70-58L0%0.0
2-1Cincinnati (26.3)AmerH0-014%-12.0
2-4Connecticut (67.9)AmerA0-08%-15.7
2-7UCF (233.2)AmerH0-063%3.7
2-10Memphis (73.6)AmerH0-024%-7.9
2-14Temple (55.4)AmerA0-010%-14.3
2-18Tulsa (40.5)AmerA0-07%-16.1
2-21South Florida (234.3)AmerH0-059%2.6
2-25Connecticut (67.9)AmerH0-021%-8.8
2-28UCF (233.2)AmerA0-039%-3.2
3-5Temple (55.4)AmerH0-025%-7.5
3-8Houston (257.9)AmerA0-035%-4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.2326.3127.7826.50-11.66-12.37
ConnecticutAmer0.404.2857.8957.430.060.64
UCFAmer0.564.2840.0038.58-0.11-0.98
MemphisAmer3.254.2660.0059.630.650.82
TempleAmer0.404.2668.1863.860.151.18
South FloridaAmer3.124.2625.0029.20-1.56-1.77
HoustonAmer3.184.2642.1137.45-0.50-1.07
CincinnatiAmer2.984.2673.6872.551.411.92
TulsaAmer3.114.2578.9571.701.801.85
SMUAmer3.182.6780.0077.101.911.45
TulaneAmer3.182.6755.0049.610.32-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.851.8152.6352.140.150.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.781.7933.3338.70-0.93-0.40
James MadisonCAA2.781.7959.0958.590.510.31
UNC GreensboroSC2.911.7815.7920.37-1.99-1.06
Central ConnecticutNEC2.781.7813.6414.15-2.02-1.28
North CarolinaACC2.851.7576.1974.141.490.85
Florida A&MMEAC2.781.720.003.65-2.78-1.60
Fresno St.MWC2.781.7242.1138.96-0.44-0.38
Green BayHorz2.781.7273.6874.611.320.85
HawaiiBW2.781.7260.0056.370.560.22
UNC AshevilleBSth2.781.7241.1846.61-0.49-0.12
HofstraCAA0.330.2060.8764.330.070.06
TowsonCAA0.190.2045.4543.46-0.02-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.200.2068.4275.790.070.10
UABCUSA0.290.1847.6251.78-0.010.01
ElonCAA0.290.1842.8641.77-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.140.1840.9140.80-0.02-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1726.0929.52-0.06-0.07
DelawareCAA0.130.1723.8124.22-0.07-0.09
North Carolina St.ACC0.200.1760.8757.630.040.03
DukeACC0.000.1785.7184.620.000.12
StetsonASun0.220.1521.0524.70-0.13-0.08
High PointBSth0.270.1573.6870.440.130.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1514.2917.22-0.10-0.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1525.0031.77-0.06-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1521.0537.92-0.08-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.130.1565.0066.400.040.05
Florida St.ACC0.130.1552.3845.640.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.250.1563.1667.030.070.05
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1485.7185.840.140.10
CampbellBSth0.280.1225.0031.87-0.14-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.210.1223.8126.18-0.11-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1252.3853.270.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.220.1219.0518.75-0.14-0.08
DavidsonA100.130.1272.2273.480.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.1275.0072.790.030.05
WyomingMWC0.200.1280.0073.740.120.06
UC IrvineBW0.210.1257.8960.710.030.03
DrexelCAA0.200.1235.0034.77-0.06-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.190.1265.2265.290.060.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.1233.3331.62-0.05-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.1268.4269.350.030.05
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1265.0059.110.040.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1250.0051.680.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.210.1276.1976.490.110.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.1142.1147.26-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.060.1150.0050.410.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1138.1038.01-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.070.1155.0057.310.010.02
WagnerNEC0.190.1135.0035.71-0.06-0.03
LibertyBSth0.150.1010.5314.92-0.12-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0957.8958.650.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.220.0942.8645.64-0.03-0.01
RadfordBSth0.140.0965.0065.260.040.03
VMISC0.140.0930.0034.92-0.06-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0933.3333.58-0.05-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.210.0945.4539.76-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.160.0968.7569.630.060.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0923.5325.88-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.0935.0037.26-0.04-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.0980.9579.380.080.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0915.7923.17-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0931.8229.88-0.03-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0976.1974.490.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.0959.0962.480.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.140.0944.4448.13-0.02-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0910.0019.57-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0923.8134.41-0.07-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.0914.2918.51-0.10-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0919.0526.06-0.08-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.0931.8234.59-0.05-0.03
Texas TechB120.140.0950.0039.860.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0942.1149.83-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.200.0985.7180.350.140.05
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0936.3643.14-0.04-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.0931.8237.46-0.05-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.130.0995.4594.860.120.08
UNLVMWC0.000.0957.1455.960.000.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0957.1456.520.010.01
NebraskaB100.140.0857.1448.260.02-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.0825.0035.18-0.07-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.0850.0053.730.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.0836.3640.54-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.160.0742.8649.26-0.02-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0761.1163.600.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0752.6353.920.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0720.0024.85-0.05-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0768.4266.670.030.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0744.4450.36-0.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.160.0680.9580.110.100.04
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0615.7915.85-0.05-0.04
FIUCUSA0.150.0644.4445.13-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0661.9060.960.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0652.3855.840.000.01
FurmanSC0.070.0626.3229.40-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.140.0666.6769.040.050.02
MercerSC0.070.0647.6252.00-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0633.3332.33-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.070.0640.0043.84-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0639.1337.63-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0627.7831.47-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0676.1975.610.040.03
Wright St.Horz0.070.0645.0046.64-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0671.4366.420.060.02
IndianaB100.140.0672.7366.680.060.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0645.0037.85-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0685.7182.060.050.04
CreightonBE0.070.0643.4838.74-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0661.5465.360.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0647.3754.12-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0635.0035.67-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.140.0622.2225.27-0.08-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0666.6763.050.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0619.0525.57-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.070.0666.6768.000.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.001.43-0.07-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.070.0655.0055.140.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0670.0065.890.030.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0630.0038.13-0.05-0.01
MaristMAAC0.140.0614.2916.72-0.10-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.0635.0045.71-0.04-0.01
ClemsonACC0.130.0661.9054.070.030.00
MonmouthMAAC0.130.0654.5555.020.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.0659.0962.580.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0660.0059.190.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0672.2268.690.030.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0631.5831.34-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.0622.7325.26-0.07-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0652.9454.540.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0680.0077.350.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0635.7133.63-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0647.6253.91-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0680.9581.980.040.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0671.4365.190.030.02
StanfordP120.000.0671.4368.260.000.02
TexasB120.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0626.3228.59-0.03-0.02
UC DavisBW0.070.0677.7869.520.040.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0642.1137.78-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7175.730.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0668.4268.150.000.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0661.9055.030.020.01
AmericanPat0.000.0652.3854.050.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0675.0071.710.030.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0627.2726.92-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0657.1454.710.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0630.0032.78-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0647.6245.06-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0647.6244.77-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7177.830.000.03
La SalleA100.000.0657.1455.610.000.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0666.6764.710.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0647.6251.62-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.120.0677.2777.460.070.03
PennIvy0.000.0635.2934.26-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0645.0042.78-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0683.3384.640.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.070.0659.0963.450.010.01
VCUA100.070.0680.9579.010.040.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0690.4885.170.000.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0695.0091.130.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0635.2930.55-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0663.6464.030.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0355.5654.030.010.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0352.6360.480.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0370.0064.270.030.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0338.8934.91-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0352.6353.480.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0322.2219.97-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6769.240.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0344.4443.28-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0310.0014.17-0.06-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0323.8124.55-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0358.8258.130.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0365.0068.010.020.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0359.0955.340.010.00
OhioMAC0.070.0336.8435.46-0.02-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0390.4888.270.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0336.8436.52-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0376.1971.460.030.01
CaliforniaP120.070.0357.1447.870.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0372.2273.710.030.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0347.6248.94-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0338.1038.64-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0344.4446.08-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.070.0341.1838.51-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0355.0056.280.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0356.5257.100.010.00
MichiganB100.070.0360.0052.430.010.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0345.0037.75-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0352.3861.790.000.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0352.3857.760.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0345.0049.35-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0350.0054.030.000.00
PacificWCC0.070.0335.0030.78-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0361.9060.760.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0350.0047.830.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0365.0059.420.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0338.1040.95-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0347.6258.74-0.000.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0062.930.030.01
BYUWCC0.070.0368.1868.210.020.01
ColoradoP120.070.0352.3850.450.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0336.3640.39-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0345.0040.95-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0336.8435.82-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0372.7371.820.030.01
ColgatePat0.060.0340.9145.99-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0328.5728.73-0.03-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0347.6248.60-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0361.9062.540.020.01
KentuckySEC0.060.03100.0098.420.060.03
MarylandB100.060.0381.8276.540.040.01
NJITind0.060.0352.3854.270.000.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0386.9682.950.050.02
RichmondA100.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0363.6464.840.020.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6758.780.020.00
UCLAP120.060.0359.0957.470.010.00
UMBCAE0.060.0314.2917.14-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0342.8636.75-0.01-0.01