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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


East Carolina

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:196
Current SOS:196
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:248



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16216.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA84-85W100%0.0
11-18Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN76-74W100%0.0
11-19Duke (9.0)ACCA83-74L0%0.0
11-25McNeese St. (272.0)SlndN91-62W100%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthN81-70W100%0.0
12-1UNC Wilmington (281.0)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-14North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH84-71W100%0.0
12-19VMI (211.0)BSthH103-94W100%0.0
12-21North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA90-79L0%0.0
12-29Georgia St. (76.0)SBH82-89L0%0.0
1-2Campbell (316.0)BSthA71-79W100%0.0
1-11Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH70-81L0%0.0
1-16Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAA78-67L0%0.0
1-18FIU (202.0)CUSAA68-64L0%0.0
1-23Tulane (223.0)CUSAH54-59L0%0.0
1-25Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH46-60L0%0.0
1-30Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA84-67L0%0.0
2-1UAB (152.0)CUSAA67-74W100%0.0
2-6UTEP (103.0)CUSAH47-58L0%0.0
2-8UTSA (306.0)CUSAH81-71W100%0.0
2-13Tulsa (73.0)CUSAA76-58L0%0.0
2-15North Texas (195.0)CUSAA53-51L0%0.0
2-20Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAH75-68W100%0.0
2-22Rice (299.0)CUSAH67-55W100%0.0
2-27Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH75-68W100%0.0
3-2Marshall (276.0)CUSAA64-61L0%0.0
3-6Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA68-47L0%0.0
3-11UTSA (306.0)CUSAN79-76W100%0.0
3-12UTEP (103.0)CUSAA77-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaCUSA26.0026.0045.0445.04-2.58-2.58
Old DominionCUSA4.024.0245.1645.16-0.39-0.39
UTEPCUSA4.004.0065.5265.521.241.24
UTSACUSA3.983.9824.0024.00-2.07-2.07
Louisiana TechCUSA2.382.3881.2581.251.491.49
CharlotteCUSA2.352.3556.6756.670.310.31
MarshallCUSA2.352.3526.6726.67-1.09-1.09
Southern MissCUSA2.342.3480.0080.001.411.41
TulsaCUSA2.322.3262.5062.500.580.58
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.322.3270.0070.000.930.93
TulaneCUSA2.292.2948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.292.2924.1424.14-1.19-1.19
North TexasCUSA2.292.2942.8642.86-0.33-0.33
UABCUSA2.262.2657.1457.140.320.32
FIUCUSA2.262.2644.4444.44-0.25-0.25
RiceCUSA2.262.2618.5218.52-1.42-1.42
Georgia St.SB1.931.9373.3373.330.900.90
UNC AshevilleBSth1.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.861.8620.6920.69-1.09-1.09
North Carolina St.ACC1.841.8460.6160.610.390.39
DukeACC1.831.8375.7675.760.940.94
VMIBSth1.821.8257.6957.690.280.28
McNeese St.Slnd1.781.7826.9226.92-0.82-0.82
UNC GreensboroSC1.781.7839.2939.29-0.38-0.38
Norfolk St.MEAC1.751.7555.1755.170.180.18
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.751.7526.6726.67-0.82-0.82
Georgia SouthernSC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.230.2313.3313.33-0.17-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.2283.8783.870.150.15
RadfordBSth0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
ElonSC0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
High PointBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Charleston SouthernBSth0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1646.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
WinthropBSth0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SC0.140.1419.2319.23-0.09-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Western KentuckySB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1214.8114.81-0.09-0.09
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1293.1093.100.100.10
Rhode IslandA100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
ClemsonACC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01