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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:219.0
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:124
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:274
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19219.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH79-83L0%0.0
11-24Green Bay (54.0)HorzN49-66L0%0.0
11-25Fresno St. (182.0)MWCN52-58W100%0.0
11-26Hawaii (152.0)BWN75-73L0%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH74-59W100%0.0
12-3Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAA72-63L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina (11.0)ACCA108-64L0%0.0
12-13James Madison (148.0)CAAH70-58W100%0.0
12-20UNC Wilmington (145.0)CAAA66-54L0%0.0
12-22Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH75-57W100%0.0
12-28UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH71-50W100%0.0
12-31Tulane (214.0)AmerH59-67L0%0.0
1-3South Florida (273.0)AmerA58-50L0%0.0
1-6Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA69-48L0%0.0
1-14Houston (239.0)AmerH66-61W100%0.0
1-17SMU (12.0)AmerA77-54L0%0.0
1-24Tulsa (45.0)AmerH64-66L0%0.0
1-28Memphis (83.0)AmerA70-58L0%0.0
2-1Cincinnati (37.0)AmerH50-46W100%0.0
2-4Connecticut (77.0)AmerA65-52L0%0.0
2-7UCF (257.0)AmerH67-49W100%0.0
2-10Memphis (83.0)AmerH64-53W100%0.0
2-14Temple (34.0)AmerA66-53L0%0.0
2-18Tulsa (45.0)AmerA69-58L0%0.0
2-21South Florida (273.0)AmerH73-60W100%0.0
2-25Connecticut (77.0)AmerH49-60L0%0.0
2-28UCF (257.0)AmerA66-71W100%0.0
3-5Temple (34.0)AmerH56-70L0%0.0
3-8Houston (239.0)AmerA72-54L0%0.0
3-12UCF (257.0)AmerN81-80W100%0.0
3-13SMU (12.0)AmerN74-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.3726.3734.6534.65-8.10-8.10
UCFAmer5.635.6342.3142.31-0.87-0.87
ConnecticutAmer4.254.2556.2556.250.530.53
SMUAmer4.224.2280.0080.002.532.53
TempleAmer4.154.1567.7467.741.471.47
HoustonAmer4.134.1340.0040.00-0.83-0.83
TulsaAmer4.114.1168.9768.971.561.56
MemphisAmer4.104.1056.6756.670.550.55
CincinnatiAmer4.094.0970.0070.001.641.64
South FloridaAmer4.094.0924.1424.14-2.12-2.12
TulaneAmer2.582.5844.8344.83-0.27-0.27
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.701.7023.0823.08-0.91-0.91
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
James MadisonCAA1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
UNC GreensboroSC1.661.6627.5927.59-0.75-0.75
Central ConnecticutNEC1.661.6616.6716.67-1.11-1.11
North CarolinaACC1.641.6467.6567.650.580.58
Florida A&MMEAC1.611.617.147.14-1.38-1.38
Fresno St.MWC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Green BayHorz1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
HawaiiBW1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
UNC AshevilleBSth1.611.6140.7440.74-0.30-0.30
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
DetroitHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1875.8675.860.090.09
TowsonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1827.2727.27-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1730.0030.00-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
ElonCAA0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
DelawareCAA0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
DukeACC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
High PointBSth0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
DavidsonA100.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
WyomingMWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
NortheasternCAA0.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.1087.100.090.09
LibertyBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
BryantNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01