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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:217.0
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20217.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH61-53W100%0.0
11-16Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH88-74W100%0.0
11-20California (16.0)P12A70-62L0%0.0
11-23San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA79-54L0%0.0
11-26Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBN46-54L0%0.0
11-27Stetson (303.0)ASunN93-73W100%0.0
12-1Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH74-48W100%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH82-71W100%0.0
12-7College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA77-73L0%0.0
12-13North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH71-60W100%0.0
12-16UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH78-73W100%0.0
12-20James Madison (103.0)CAAA67-61L0%0.0
12-22South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH98-71W100%0.0
1-2UCF (219.0)AmerH68-71L0%0.0
1-5Tulsa (58.0)AmerA55-43L0%0.0
1-9Temple (60.0)AmerA78-60L0%0.0
1-13SMU (13.0)AmerH55-79L0%0.0
1-16UCF (219.0)AmerA89-69L0%0.0
1-19Tulsa (58.0)AmerH69-84L0%0.0
1-24Memphis (139.0)AmerA83-84W100%0.0
1-27Temple (60.0)AmerH64-61W100%0.0
1-30Houston (87.0)AmerH93-97L0%0.0
2-7Connecticut (32.0)AmerA85-67L0%0.0
2-10Tulane (227.0)AmerH92-100L0%0.0
2-13Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA75-60L0%0.0
2-16South Florida (230.0)AmerH52-69L0%0.0
2-21SMU (13.0)AmerA74-63L0%0.0
2-24Tulane (227.0)AmerA73-79W100%0.0
2-27Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH56-65L0%0.0
3-2South Florida (230.0)AmerA39-52W100%0.0
3-6Memphis (139.0)AmerH53-83L0%0.0
3-10South Florida (230.0)AmerN66-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer26.2826.2834.2534.25-8.28-8.28
South FloridaAmer5.455.4520.0020.00-3.27-3.27
MemphisAmer4.034.0356.2556.250.500.50
TulaneAmer3.993.9934.3834.38-1.25-1.25
TempleAmer3.953.9566.6766.671.321.32
UCFAmer3.943.9435.7135.71-1.13-1.13
TulsaAmer3.913.9162.0762.070.940.94
CincinnatiAmer3.883.8866.6766.671.291.29
SMUAmer3.853.8582.1482.142.472.47
ConnecticutAmer2.522.5269.7069.700.990.99
HoustonAmer2.442.4470.0070.000.980.98
College of CharlestonCAA1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6979.3179.310.990.99
StetsonASun1.671.6727.5927.59-0.75-0.75
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
James MadisonCAA1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
USC UpstateASun1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6423.3323.33-0.87-0.87
Arkansas Little RockSB1.641.6486.6786.671.201.20
Grambling St.SWAC1.631.6314.8114.81-1.15-1.15
South Carolina St.MEAC1.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
CharlotteCUSA1.611.6143.7543.75-0.20-0.20
San Diego St.MWC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
CaliforniaP121.591.5968.7568.750.600.60
DelawareCAA0.300.3023.3323.33-0.16-0.16
HofstraCAA0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
NortheasternCAA0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
ElonCAA0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.170.1780.6580.650.110.11
George WashingtonA100.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
LipscombASun0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
TowsonCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
UtahP120.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
DavidsonA100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
Ohio St.B100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Oregon St.P120.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
TroySB0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1062.8662.860.030.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01