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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


East Carolina

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:173.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:295
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:155
Expected OOC SOS:284



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-744.50.02%
23-855.00.03%
22-966.10.11%
21-1079.40.49%
20-1192.71.49%
19-12108.53.97%
18-13126.48.72%
17-14144.114.82%
16-15163.119.33%
15-16181.620.78%
14-17201.615.42%
13-18220.99.44%
12-19240.03.87%
11-20259.01.24%
10-21274.60.26%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Grambling St. (338.4)SWACH72-57W100%0.0
11-14North Carolina A&T (343.1)MEACH61-51W100%0.0
11-17Charlotte (185.0)CUSAA76-64L0%0.0
11-20Stetson (323.3)ASunH73-50W100%0.0
11-22Florida A&M (345.3)MEACH82-62W100%0.0
11-25Mercer (185.3)SCN66-70L0%0.0
11-26Air Force (168.0)MWCN63-70W100%0.0
11-29Hampton (312.6)MEACH68-48W100%0.0
12-3North Carolina Central (161.9)MEACH69-56W100%0.0
12-6Virginia (8.7)ACCA76-53L0%0.0
12-15College of Charleston (117.3)CAAH0-056%1.8
12-20UNC Wilmington (48.9)CAAA0-020%-10.0
12-22Presbyterian (327.2)BSthH0-095%19.9
12-28South Florida (264.5)AmerH0-079%9.8
12-31SMU (58.7)AmerH0-029%-6.5
1-3UCF (46.2)AmerA0-013%-13.7
1-7Temple (51.5)AmerA0-018%-10.8
1-11Houston (41.9)AmerH0-022%-9.3
1-15Cincinnati (18.6)AmerH0-014%-13.0
1-22Connecticut (118.0)AmerA0-028%-7.0
1-25Tulsa (189.4)AmerH0-066%4.8
1-28Memphis (138.5)AmerA0-028%-7.0
2-1SMU (58.7)AmerA0-014%-12.8
2-4Tulane (284.4)AmerH0-080%10.0
2-11South Florida (264.5)AmerA0-062%3.5
2-15Temple (51.5)AmerH0-035%-4.6
2-18UCF (46.2)AmerH0-027%-7.5
2-21Tulane (284.4)AmerA0-062%3.8
2-26Tulsa (189.4)AmerA0-045%-1.4
3-1Connecticut (118.0)AmerH0-047%-0.8
3-5Houston (41.9)AmerA0-010%-15.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East CarolinaAmer28.3126.2967.6546.209.99-2.00
UCFAmer0.314.0485.7175.480.222.06
South FloridaAmer0.364.0157.1433.460.05-1.33
SMUAmer0.003.9866.6765.850.001.26
HoustonAmer0.003.9875.0074.540.001.96
TempleAmer0.003.9875.0064.230.001.13
TulaneAmer0.003.9812.5023.46-0.00-2.11
ConnecticutAmer0.003.9842.8643.60-0.00-0.51
TulsaAmer0.003.9850.0037.170.00-1.02
CincinnatiAmer0.002.5187.5082.320.001.62
MemphisAmer0.002.5175.0055.740.000.29
Florida A&MMEAC5.671.810.0023.33-5.67-0.97
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.311.760.0021.37-5.31-1.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC5.001.7371.4377.012.140.93
StetsonASun5.711.7228.5727.44-2.45-0.78
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.7266.6762.300.000.42
HamptonMEAC5.001.7016.6744.42-3.33-0.19
Air ForceMWC5.671.6766.6749.821.89-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC5.631.6728.5732.94-2.41-0.57
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.001.6783.3377.200.000.91
VirginiaACC5.311.6487.5077.693.980.91
CharlotteCUSA5.001.6157.1448.800.71-0.04
MercerSC5.001.6133.3345.81-1.67-0.14
PresbyterianBSth0.001.6128.5725.14-0.00-0.80
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2912.5031.01-0.00-0.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.2612.5037.11-0.00-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.230.0034.54-0.00-0.07
HowardMEAC0.000.2016.6743.53-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.200.0019.08-0.31-0.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.2025.0041.19-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.360.2025.0030.02-0.18-0.08
ElonCAA0.310.1962.5054.660.080.02
William & MaryCAA0.360.1733.3346.06-0.12-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.1650.0056.890.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1650.0041.700.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.1644.4443.25-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.160.0017.92-0.00-0.10
George WashingtonA100.000.1655.5642.150.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.16100.0084.740.000.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0017.16-0.00-0.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.150.0036.38-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.150.0026.22-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.670.1428.5734.49-0.29-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.310.1444.4441.55-0.03-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.710.1462.5060.090.180.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1433.3351.98-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.360.1440.0058.88-0.070.03
The CitadelSC0.310.1450.0030.320.00-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.630.1471.4355.570.270.02
James MadisonCAA0.310.1412.5030.17-0.23-0.05
MassachusettsA100.000.1371.4358.170.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1242.8639.64-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1128.5746.79-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.310.1114.2943.08-0.22-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.310.1162.5053.550.080.01
RiderMAAC0.360.1157.1450.790.050.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1112.5034.49-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.010.000.01
Ohio St.B100.590.1177.7862.010.330.03
Western CarolinaSC0.310.1128.5723.02-0.13-0.06
SamfordSC0.000.1162.5056.520.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1112.5033.18-0.00-0.04
Texas St.SB0.000.1150.0044.180.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4347.690.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.1144.4451.58-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.310.1120.0022.88-0.19-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1157.1436.370.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.000.1150.0041.460.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1155.5643.870.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.910.000.07
TowsonCAA0.000.1142.8653.80-0.000.01
PennIvy0.000.1133.3356.66-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1175.0048.980.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0950.0071.340.000.04
High PointBSth0.000.0937.5044.87-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.310.0925.0023.62-0.16-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0942.8657.52-0.000.01
VMISC0.000.090.0016.56-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.360.0937.5035.03-0.09-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0828.5738.92-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.310.0862.5044.840.08-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0842.8650.33-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0811.1132.47-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0850.0066.380.000.03
DavidsonA100.670.0871.4362.990.290.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0885.7157.280.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.310.0837.5028.47-0.08-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0820.0017.37-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.310.0877.7855.180.170.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0883.3379.920.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0862.5062.080.000.02
IowaB100.590.0844.4438.41-0.07-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.590.0877.7859.940.330.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.180.000.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.560.000.01
George MasonA100.360.0862.5046.490.09-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0857.1456.540.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0871.4348.030.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6770.400.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0888.8967.470.000.03
West VirginiaB120.280.0885.7183.250.200.05
YaleIvy0.280.0842.8663.63-0.040.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0842.8660.66-0.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0038.50-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0021.92-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0662.5071.850.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.310.0616.6730.09-0.21-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.710.0642.8643.55-0.10-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.32-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.310.0614.2935.05-0.22-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0067.820.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.400.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0657.1472.530.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0662.5066.500.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.75-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0070.570.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.44-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0677.7886.650.000.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.360.0630.0045.49-0.14-0.01
FloridaSEC0.360.0677.7872.930.200.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
AkronMAC0.710.0671.4368.930.310.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0657.1443.930.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.600.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0045.82-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.260.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5042.780.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0628.5752.65-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0550.0059.840.000.01
Notre DameACC0.360.05100.0076.970.360.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0555.5637.870.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0587.5069.040.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0528.5730.43-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0533.3349.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0587.5075.690.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0047.520.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.05-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0516.6738.83-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0550.0046.820.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0544.4436.20-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0562.5071.400.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.500.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0550.0064.910.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0571.4337.680.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.080.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0577.7865.840.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0562.5062.120.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.34-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0566.6758.600.000.01
TCUB120.000.05100.0060.950.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.050.0033.71-0.00-0.02
USCP120.000.05100.0076.400.000.03
Kansas St.B120.360.0388.8956.710.280.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.0362.5052.400.080.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.310.0357.1453.860.040.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
RichmondA100.360.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.360.0337.5043.19-0.09-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.740.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0362.5070.890.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.310.0357.1454.200.040.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.83-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0042.770.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.46-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.90-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0371.4360.090.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.65-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.360.0360.0058.900.070.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0362.5058.130.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.360.0375.0069.680.180.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.360.0357.1459.020.050.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.660.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0333.3338.56-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0050.980.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0070.350.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.280.0312.5026.05-0.21-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.99-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0047.990.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0377.7872.210.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01