Southern Methodist

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	214.4
Current RPI:	206
Expected SOS:	142
Current SOS:	141
Current Record:	8-13
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	2-7
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.15%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	192
Expected OOC SOS:	233

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-14	144.3	0.26%
14-15	164.2	2.09%
13-16	181.9	9.66%
12-17	198.9	21.35%
11-18	214.5	29.96%
10-19	229.5	23.61%
9-20	244.1	11.05%
8-21	257.8	2.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Methodist.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-14	Colorado St. (33.3)	MWC	N	75-56	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	N	52-54	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	65-64	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	62-56	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	N	64-55	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Georgia Southern (228.1)	SC	H	55-49	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	63-69	W	100%	0.0
12-15	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	N	58-59	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	A	65-84	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	N	58-68	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	73-65	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Mississippi (70.0)	SEC	A	50-48	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	55-57	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	H	52-68	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	70-64	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	H	70-54	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Memphis (25.8)	CUSA	A	63-45	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	A	80-74	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	H	60-66	L	0%	0.0
2-1	East Carolina (158.4)	CUSA	A	62-43	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Central Florida (72.7)	CUSA	H	52-59	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	0-0		54%	1.2
2-11	Rice (177.4)	CUSA	A	0-0		29%	-6.1
2-15	UAB (140.0)	CUSA	H	0-0		50%	-0.1
2-18	Marshall (61.3)	CUSA	H	0-0		29%	-6.0
2-22	Tulane (174.9)	CUSA	H	0-0		44%	-1.7
2-25	Houston (233.1)	CUSA	A	0-0		36%	-3.9
2-29	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	0-0		9%	-15.0
3-3	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	H	0-0		48%	-0.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Methodist's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Methodist's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Methodist.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Methodist	CUSA	26.25	26.17	39.18	36.96	-5.68	-6.83
Tulsa	CUSA	5.27	4.23	61.90	59.70	1.25	0.82
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.89	4.17	40.91	40.96	-0.52	-0.75
Houston	CUSA	2.82	4.14	50.00	45.60	0.00	-0.36
Rice	CUSA	2.77	4.14	45.00	43.46	-0.28	-0.54
Tulane	CUSA	2.76	4.11	60.00	57.09	0.55	0.58
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.52	2.42	85.71	81.85	0.37	1.54
Memphis	CUSA	2.61	2.36	68.18	70.56	0.95	0.97
UAB	CUSA	0.34	2.33	40.91	39.45	-0.06	-0.49
Marshall	CUSA	0.38	2.33	59.09	59.32	0.07	0.43
Central Florida	CUSA	2.72	2.33	70.00	65.37	1.09	0.72
East Carolina	CUSA	2.71	2.32	41.18	39.29	-0.48	-0.50
Texas Christian	MWC	0.38	2.03	57.14	49.68	0.05	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	2.59	1.90	18.18	25.22	-1.65	-0.94
Colorado St.	MWC	2.43	1.87	65.00	59.35	0.73	0.35
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.59	1.87	15.00	22.86	-1.81	-1.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.48	1.84	45.00	45.00	-0.25	-0.18
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.59	1.84	45.45	45.83	-0.24	-0.15
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.54	1.81	42.86	38.66	-0.36	-0.41
Fresno St.	WAC	2.44	1.78	36.36	42.61	-0.66	-0.26
Mississippi	SEC	2.38	1.78	61.90	55.22	0.57	0.19
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.48	1.78	80.00	80.11	1.49	1.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.38	1.75	52.38	50.71	0.11	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	2.38	1.72	42.11	42.95	-0.38	-0.24
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.38	1.72	50.00	48.99	0.00	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.32	0.32	69.57	68.90	0.13	0.12
Southern	SWAC	0.27	0.30	45.00	46.13	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.32	0.24	57.14	60.75	0.05	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.22	0.24	15.00	15.73	-0.15	-0.16
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.22	0.21	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.22	0.21	17.65	27.10	-0.14	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.22	0.21	16.67	23.02	-0.15	-0.11
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.18	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.18	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.11
Auburn	SEC	0.22	0.18	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.17	0.15	20.00	19.96	-0.10	-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.15	18.18	21.13	-0.11	-0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.15	100.00	94.55	0.11	0.13
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.15	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.06
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.15	81.82	81.03	0.07	0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.15	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.11	0.15	69.57	73.28	0.04	0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.15	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.15	69.57	65.15	0.07	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.15	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.15	35.00	40.78	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.15	31.82	42.13	-0.06	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.14	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.14	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.26	0.14	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.13	59.09	57.93	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.12	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.12	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.12	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.07
Denver	SB	0.16	0.12	70.83	72.23	0.07	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.05	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.12	27.78	29.58	-0.10	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.12	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.12	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.21	0.12	70.83	71.64	0.09	0.05
Texas	B12	0.11	0.12	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.11	0.12	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.16	0.12	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.16	0.12	55.00	54.48	0.02	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.12	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.12	8.70	8.99	-0.18	-0.10
Oakland	Sum	0.15	0.12	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.11	0.12	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.12	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.06
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	27.27	26.95	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.16	0.12	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.12	30.43	31.43	-0.06	-0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.12	31.82	25.98	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.12	0.10	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.08
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.09	31.82	31.31	-0.04	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.09	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.09	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.09	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.09	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.09	19.05	24.61	-0.04	-0.05
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.09	91.30	87.18	0.09	0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.09	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.06	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.09	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.09	34.78	35.20	-0.05	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.09	65.00	60.02	0.05	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.16	0.09	90.91	83.85	0.13	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.10	0.09	87.50	85.41	0.08	0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.16	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.08	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.16	0.09	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.09	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.09	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.08	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.08	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.13	0.07	35.00	39.29	-0.04	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.07	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.07	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.04
Furman	SC	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.12	0.07	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.07	9.52	11.44	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.12	0.07	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.06	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.12	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.04	0.02
Troy	SB	0.00	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.00	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.07	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.03	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.03	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	30.00	33.20	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.05	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.00	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.00	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.00	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.00	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.00	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01