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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Grambling

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:347.0
Current RPI:347
Expected SOS:344
Current SOS:344
Current Record:0-28
Expected Record:0-28
Current Conf Record:0-19
Expected Conf Record:0-19
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:0-19
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:238



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
0-28347.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzA92-49L0%0.0
11-11Ball St. (233.0)MACA78-51L0%0.0
11-13Miami OH (258.0)MACA80-54L0%0.0
11-17Houston (197.0)CUSAA87-47L0%0.0
11-20Texas Tech (214.0)B12A91-56L0%0.0
12-8Oregon St. (181.0)P12A85-54L0%0.0
12-11Auburn (252.0)SECA92-42L0%0.0
12-15Southern Mississippi (31.0)CUSAA93-45L0%0.0
12-20Stephen F. Austin (65.0)SlndA60-38L0%0.0
1-2Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACA78-53L0%0.0
1-4Alabama St. (328.0)SWACA69-56L0%0.0
1-6Southern (180.0)SWACH43-82L0%0.0
1-8Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACH46-80L0%0.0
1-12Prairie View A&M (315.0)SWACA60-44L0%0.0
1-14Texas Southern (184.0)SWACA95-50L0%0.0
1-19Jackson St. (309.0)SWACH46-57L0%0.0
1-26Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACH67-79L0%0.0
1-28Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACH50-65L0%0.0
2-2Southern (180.0)SWACA59-31L0%0.0
2-4Alcorn St. (311.0)SWACA78-53L0%0.0
2-9Prairie View A&M (315.0)SWACH53-63L0%0.0
2-11Texas Southern (184.0)SWACH52-80L0%0.0
2-16Jackson St. (309.0)SWACA77-38L0%0.0
2-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)SWACA61-45L0%0.0
2-25Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)SWACA90-68L0%0.0
2-28Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACH47-74L0%0.0
3-2Alabama St. (328.0)SWACH62-74L0%0.0
3-13Alabama A&M (329.0)SWACN59-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grambling's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grambling.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
GramblingSWAC26.4926.490.000.00-26.49-26.49
Alabama A&MSWAC6.376.3723.0823.08-3.43-3.43
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.864.8634.4834.48-1.51-1.51
SouthernSWAC4.734.7366.6766.671.581.58
Jackson St.SWAC4.734.7333.3333.33-1.58-1.58
Alabama St.SWAC4.654.6524.1424.14-2.41-2.41
Alcorn St.SWAC4.654.6523.3323.33-2.48-2.48
Texas SouthernSWAC4.624.6251.7251.720.160.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.594.5950.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.584.5811.5411.54-3.52-3.52
HoustonCUSA1.991.9958.6258.620.340.34
Texas TechB121.901.9033.3333.33-0.63-0.63
Ball St.MAC1.851.8546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Cleveland St.Horz1.821.8235.7135.71-0.52-0.52
Miami OHMAC1.821.8224.1424.14-0.94-0.94
Southern MississippiCUSA1.821.8270.9770.970.760.76
AuburnSEC1.791.7925.8125.81-0.86-0.86
Oregon St.P121.791.7941.9441.94-0.29-0.29
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.791.7984.6284.621.241.24
Texas ChristianB120.270.2732.2632.26-0.10-0.10
AkronMAC0.240.2480.6580.650.150.15
Texas A&MSEC0.240.2454.5554.550.020.02
Iowa St.B120.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
Texas El PasoCUSA0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Washington St.P120.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
UABCUSA0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1557.6957.690.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
MississippiSEC0.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
WashingtonP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
RiceCUSA0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Arizona St.P120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
OregonP120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
Chicago St.GWC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Middle TennesseeSB0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
TroySB0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
MemphisCUSA0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
CaliforniaP120.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
StanfordP120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
OklahomaB120.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
OhioMAC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0953.8553.850.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
UCLAP120.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
ArizonaP120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
MissouriSEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.070.079.689.68-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North TexasSB0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.067.147.14-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TexasB120.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
SyracuseBE0.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
TempleA100.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
UtahP120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01