Grambling

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	341.0
Current RPI:	341
Expected SOS:	341
Current SOS:	341
Current Record:	4-24
Expected Record:	4-24
Current Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Conf Record:	4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-15
Current OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC RPI:	334
Expected OOC SOS:	182

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-24	341.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	88-42	L	0%
11-14	Mississippi (61.0)	SEC	A	69-39	L	0%
11-16	Utah Valley (230.0)	GWC	A	64-34	L	0%
11-19	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	H	45-75	L	0%
11-26	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	86-44	L	0%
11-30	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	A	69-37	L	0%
12-18	Texas Tech (241.0)	B12	A	87-59	L	0%
12-20	North Texas (200.0)	SB	A	82-40	L	0%
12-22	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	A	85-53	L	0%
12-29	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	A	69-37	L	0%
1-3	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	H	62-73	L	0%
1-5	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	H	60-55	W	100%
1-7	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	A	72-59	L	0%
1-9	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	A	71-72	W	100%
1-14	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	H	57-61	L	0%
1-16	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	N	64-81	L	0%
1-21	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	A	80-67	L	0%
1-28	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	A	55-60	W	100%
1-30	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	A	77-59	L	0%
2-4	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	53-57	L	0%
2-6	Alcorn St. (335.0)	SWAC	H	55-57	L	0%
2-11	Texas Southern (234.0)	SWAC	A	72-54	L	0%
2-13	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	A	71-52	L	0%
2-18	Jackson St. (322.0)	SWAC	H	60-63	L	0%
2-25	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	H	60-79	L	0%
2-27	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	53-68	L	0%
3-1	Alabama St. (308.0)	SWAC	A	63-61	L	0%
3-3	Alabama A&M (342.0)	SWAC	A	72-75	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Grambling's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Grambling.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Grambling	SWAC	26.38	26.38	18.46	18.46	-16.64	-16.64
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.77	4.77	61.29	61.29	1.08	1.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.76	4.76	41.94	41.94	-0.77	-0.77
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.66	4.66	32.26	32.26	-1.65	-1.65
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.64	4.64	23.08	23.08	-2.50	-2.50
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.62	4.62	14.29	14.29	-3.30	-3.30
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.59	4.59	33.33	33.33	-1.53	-1.53
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.58	4.58	29.63	29.63	-1.87	-1.87
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.57	4.57	20.83	20.83	-2.67	-2.67
Southern	SWAC	4.53	4.53	46.15	46.15	-0.35	-0.35
Arkansas	SEC	2.12	2.12	54.84	54.84	0.21	0.21
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.99	1.99	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Mississippi	SEC	1.98	1.98	59.38	59.38	0.37	0.37
Houston	CUSA	1.93	1.93	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
North Texas	SB	1.90	1.90	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	1.88	1.88	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	1.87	1.87	55.56	55.56	0.21	0.21
Texas Christian	MWC	1.87	1.87	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Texas Tech	B12	1.85	1.85	23.33	23.33	-0.98	-0.98
Washington St.	P12	1.79	1.79	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Alabama	SEC	0.26	0.26	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.26	0.26	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.25	0.25	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.23	0.23	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
South Alabama	SB	0.19	0.19	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	B12	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Denver	SB	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	94.12	94.12	0.10	0.10
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.09	18.75	18.75	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01