Grambling

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	347.0
Current RPI:	347
Expected SOS:	344
Current SOS:	344
Current Record:	0-28
Expected Record:	0-28
Current Conf Record:	0-19
Expected Conf Record:	0-19
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	0-19
Current OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC RPI:	339
Expected OOC SOS:	238

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
0-28	347.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grambling.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	92-49	L	0%
11-11	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	78-51	L	0%
11-13	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	80-54	L	0%
11-17	Houston (197.0)	CUSA	A	87-47	L	0%
11-20	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	91-56	L	0%
12-8	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	85-54	L	0%
12-11	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	92-42	L	0%
12-15	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	A	93-45	L	0%
12-20	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	60-38	L	0%
1-2	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	78-53	L	0%
1-4	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	69-56	L	0%
1-6	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	43-82	L	0%
1-8	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	46-80	L	0%
1-12	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	60-44	L	0%
1-14	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	95-50	L	0%
1-19	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	46-57	L	0%
1-26	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	H	67-79	L	0%
1-28	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	50-65	L	0%
2-2	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	59-31	L	0%
2-4	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	78-53	L	0%
2-9	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	53-63	L	0%
2-11	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	52-80	L	0%
2-16	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	77-38	L	0%
2-23	Arkansas Pine Bluff (202.0)	SWAC	A	61-45	L	0%
2-25	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	90-68	L	0%
2-28	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	47-74	L	0%
3-2	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	62-74	L	0%
3-13	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	N	59-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grambling's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Grambling's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Grambling.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Grambling	SWAC	26.49	26.49	0.00	0.00	-26.49	-26.49
Alabama A&M	SWAC	6.37	6.37	23.08	23.08	-3.43	-3.43
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.86	4.86	34.48	34.48	-1.51	-1.51
Southern	SWAC	4.73	4.73	66.67	66.67	1.58	1.58
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.73	4.73	33.33	33.33	-1.58	-1.58
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.65	4.65	24.14	24.14	-2.41	-2.41
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.65	4.65	23.33	23.33	-2.48	-2.48
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.62	4.62	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.59	4.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.58	4.58	11.54	11.54	-3.52	-3.52
Houston	CUSA	1.99	1.99	58.62	58.62	0.34	0.34
Texas Tech	B12	1.90	1.90	33.33	33.33	-0.63	-0.63
Ball St.	MAC	1.85	1.85	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.82	1.82	35.71	35.71	-0.52	-0.52
Miami OH	MAC	1.82	1.82	24.14	24.14	-0.94	-0.94
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.82	1.82	70.97	70.97	0.76	0.76
Auburn	SEC	1.79	1.79	25.81	25.81	-0.86	-0.86
Oregon St.	P12	1.79	1.79	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.79	1.79	84.62	84.62	1.24	1.24
Texas Christian	B12	0.27	0.27	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Akron	MAC	0.24	0.24	80.65	80.65	0.15	0.15
Texas A&M	SEC	0.24	0.24	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.18	0.18	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Detroit	Horz	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.14	0.14	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
California	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01