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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:140.0
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:55
Current Record:14-20
Expected Record:14-20
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:90



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-20140.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Longwood (337.0)BSthH82-44W100%0.0
11-12Baylor (30.0)B12A66-64L0%0.0
11-17Clemson (79.0)ACCA71-57L0%0.0
11-24FIU (202.0)CUSAH84-72W100%0.0
12-6Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A79-52L0%0.0
12-17Manhattan (60.0)MAACH68-86L0%0.0
12-19USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH68-74L0%0.0
12-22Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCN71-78W100%0.0
12-23Boise St. (82.0)MWCN80-54L0%0.0
12-25Akron (93.0)MACN69-59W100%0.0
12-28Akron (93.0)MACH78-45W100%0.0
12-30Marshall (276.0)CUSAH92-65W100%0.0
1-3South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH82-75W100%0.0
1-8Florida (1.0)SECA74-58L0%0.0
1-11LSU (83.0)SECH68-71L0%0.0
1-15Texas A&M (148.0)SECA75-67L0%0.0
1-18Mississippi (94.0)SECH74-75L0%0.0
1-22Georgia (74.0)SECA97-76L0%0.0
1-25Missouri (49.0)SECA82-74L0%0.0
1-29Texas A&M (148.0)SECH80-52W100%0.0
2-1Mississippi (94.0)SECA75-71L0%0.0
2-5Auburn (169.0)SECH74-79L0%0.0
2-8Tennessee (42.0)SECA72-53L0%0.0
2-13Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH65-59W100%0.0
2-15Alabama (124.0)SECH67-66W100%0.0
2-19Arkansas (77.0)SECA71-64L0%0.0
2-22Georgia (74.0)SECH56-73L0%0.0
2-26Auburn (169.0)SECA83-67L0%0.0
3-1Kentucky (17.0)SECH72-67W100%0.0
3-4Florida (1.0)SECH46-72L0%0.0
3-8Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA62-74W100%0.0
3-12Auburn (169.0)SECN56-74W100%0.0
3-13Arkansas (77.0)SECN69-71W100%0.0
3-14Tennessee (42.0)SECN59-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.2526.2536.9936.99-6.83-6.83
AuburnSEC4.984.9844.4444.44-0.55-0.55
TennesseeSEC3.653.6560.0060.000.730.73
FloridaSEC3.633.6393.7593.753.183.18
GeorgiaSEC3.563.5656.6756.670.470.47
MississippiSEC3.543.5454.8454.840.340.34
ArkansasSEC3.543.5466.6766.671.181.18
Texas A&MSEC3.513.5153.3353.330.230.23
AkronMAC2.992.9967.7467.741.061.06
KentuckySEC2.272.2772.7372.731.031.03
Mississippi St.SEC2.232.2343.7543.75-0.28-0.28
MissouriSEC2.202.2065.6265.620.690.69
AlabamaSEC2.182.1840.0040.00-0.44-0.44
LSUSEC2.162.1658.0658.060.350.35
VanderbiltSEC2.162.1650.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC1.621.6261.2961.290.360.36
MarshallCUSA1.591.5930.0030.00-0.64-0.64
Saint Mary'sWCC1.541.5467.7467.740.550.55
BaylorB121.541.5465.6265.620.480.48
South Carolina St.MEAC1.521.5225.9325.93-0.73-0.73
USC UpstateASun1.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
Boise St.MWC1.521.5258.0658.060.240.24
Oklahoma St.B121.521.5262.5062.500.380.38
FIUCUSA1.491.4948.1548.15-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth1.471.4714.8114.81-1.03-1.03
ManhattanMAAC1.471.4777.4277.420.810.81
Iowa St.B120.250.2578.7978.790.150.15
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
OklahomaB120.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
OhioMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
TCUB120.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Texas TechB120.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.160.1664.2964.290.050.05
KansasB120.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
XavierBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.040.0481.2581.250.030.03
TroySB0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
RichmondA100.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0478.7978.790.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0293.1093.100.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0239.2939.29-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01