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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:222.0
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:164
Current Record:14-18
Expected Record:14-18
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-18222.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)HorzH82-75W100%0.0
11-16Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH87-71W100%0.0
11-19Rider (145.0)MAACH88-76W100%0.0
11-21Elon (174.0)SCH53-65L0%0.0
11-24Missouri St. (203.0)MVCN74-67W100%0.0
11-25Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBN62-74W100%0.0
11-29St. John's (96.0)BEA89-65L0%0.0
12-2Clemson (185.0)ACCH55-64L0%0.0
12-7Jacksonville (281.0)ASunH91-74W100%0.0
12-19Appalachian St. (265.0)SCH74-69W100%0.0
12-22Manhattan (183.0)MAACA57-63W100%0.0
12-29Presbyterian (340.0)BSthH76-60W100%0.0
1-5South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH80-69W100%0.0
1-9Mississippi St. (232.0)SECA56-54L0%0.0
1-12Auburn (252.0)SECH71-74L0%0.0
1-16Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA73-82W100%0.0
1-19Vanderbilt (120.0)SECH51-58L0%0.0
1-22Missouri (36.0)SECA71-65L0%0.0
1-26Arkansas (89.0)SECH75-54W100%0.0
1-30Florida (7.0)SECA75-36L0%0.0
2-2Georgia (140.0)SECH56-67L0%0.0
2-5Kentucky (56.0)SECA77-55L0%0.0
2-10Tennessee (59.0)SECH61-66L0%0.0
2-14Louisiana St. (86.0)SECH46-64L0%0.0
2-16Alabama (60.0)SECA68-58L0%0.0
2-20Mississippi (47.0)SECH63-62W100%0.0
2-23Georgia (140.0)SECA62-54L0%0.0
2-28Missouri (36.0)SECH68-90L0%0.0
3-2Texas A&M (102.0)SECA74-56L0%0.0
3-6Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH79-72W100%0.0
3-9Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA74-64L0%0.0
3-13Mississippi St. (232.0)SECN59-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.1326.1338.0338.03-6.26-6.26
Mississippi St.SEC5.225.2227.5927.59-2.34-2.34
Louisiana St.SEC3.783.7862.0762.070.910.91
MissouriSEC3.763.7667.7467.741.331.33
GeorgiaSEC3.713.7143.3343.33-0.49-0.49
VanderbiltSEC3.713.7145.1645.16-0.36-0.36
MississippiSEC2.342.3478.7978.791.341.34
FloridaSEC2.312.3178.1278.121.301.30
TennesseeSEC2.292.2961.2961.290.520.52
AlabamaSEC2.272.2761.2961.290.510.51
Texas A&MSEC2.242.2453.1253.120.140.14
ArkansasSEC2.212.2161.2961.290.500.50
KentuckySEC2.192.1964.5264.520.640.64
AuburnSEC2.162.1625.8125.81-1.05-1.05
JacksonvilleASun1.741.7441.3841.38-0.30-0.30
South Carolina St.MEAC1.711.7114.8114.81-1.20-1.20
Appalachian St.SC1.691.6946.4346.43-0.12-0.12
RiderMAAC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
PresbyterianBSth1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz1.641.6420.6920.69-0.96-0.96
Arkansas Little RockSB1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
Morgan St.MEAC1.621.6254.8454.840.160.16
ClemsonACC1.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
ElonSC1.621.6262.0762.070.390.39
ManhattanMAAC1.611.6145.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Missouri St.MVC1.591.5930.0030.00-0.64-0.64
St. John'sBE1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.210.2117.2417.24-0.14-0.14
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
DavidsonSC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
MarquetteBE0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
IonaMAAC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticSB0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeSB0.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
NC GreensboroSC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
East Tennessee St.ASun0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
VillanovaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
LouisvilleBE0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
The CitadelSC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1010.0010.00-0.08-0.08
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
LipscombASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
RutgersBE0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Texas San AntonioWAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0848.0048.00-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Notre DameBE0.070.0773.5373.530.040.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
South FloridaBE0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.070.0718.1818.18-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Texas El PasoCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Virginia CommonwealthA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
SyracuseBE0.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.057.147.14-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
OregonP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PittsburghBE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCAA0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Texas TechB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
St. LouisA100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00