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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:65.0
Current RPI:65
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:126
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:29
Expected OOC SOS:271



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-865.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH84-69W100%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH84-66W100%0.0
11-20DePaul (198.0)BEN76-61W100%0.0
11-22Hofstra (54.0)CAAN94-84W100%0.0
11-23Tulsa (58.0)AmerN83-75W100%0.0
11-27Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH92-76W100%0.0
11-30Western Carolina (166.0)SCH76-53W100%0.0
12-5South Florida (230.0)AmerH81-63W100%0.0
12-15Drexel (247.0)CAAH79-54W100%0.0
12-18Clemson (131.0)ACCA59-65W100%0.0
12-22St. John's (246.0)BEN75-61W100%0.0
1-2Memphis (139.0)AmerH86-76W100%0.0
1-5Auburn (175.0)SECA69-81W100%0.0
1-9Vanderbilt (63.0)SECH69-65W100%0.0
1-13Alabama (73.0)SECA73-50L0%0.0
1-16Missouri (222.0)SECH81-72W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi (96.0)SECA74-77W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee (143.0)SECA78-69L0%0.0
1-26Mississippi St. (154.0)SECH84-74W100%0.0
1-30Alabama (73.0)SECH78-64W100%0.0
2-2Georgia (62.0)SECA69-56L0%0.0
2-6Texas A&M (18.0)SECA78-81W100%0.0
2-10LSU (94.0)SECH94-83W100%0.0
2-13Kentucky (11.0)SECH62-89L0%0.0
2-16Missouri (222.0)SECA72-67L0%0.0
2-20Florida (55.0)SECH73-69W100%0.0
2-24Tennessee (143.0)SECH84-58W100%0.0
2-27Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA68-58L0%0.0
3-3Georgia (62.0)SECH72-74L0%0.0
3-5Arkansas (133.0)SECA61-76W100%0.0
3-11Georgia (62.0)SECN64-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.1426.1474.0574.0512.5712.57
GeorgiaSEC5.475.4755.1755.170.570.57
AlabamaSEC3.883.8856.6756.670.520.52
Mississippi St.SEC3.853.8544.8344.83-0.40-0.40
TennesseeSEC3.833.8343.7543.75-0.48-0.48
MissouriSEC3.803.8031.0331.03-1.44-1.44
KentuckySEC2.412.4175.7675.761.241.24
MississippiSEC2.372.3764.5264.520.690.69
AuburnSEC2.332.3336.6736.67-0.62-0.62
Texas A&MSEC2.322.3278.7978.791.331.33
LSUSEC2.312.3159.3859.380.430.43
ArkansasSEC2.292.2951.6151.610.070.07
FloridaSEC2.292.2959.3859.380.430.43
VanderbiltSEC2.282.2861.2961.290.520.52
MemphisAmer1.741.7457.5857.580.260.26
ClemsonACC1.741.7456.6756.670.230.23
TulsaAmer1.711.7166.6766.670.570.57
South FloridaAmer1.711.7125.0025.00-0.86-0.86
HofstraCAA1.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
DePaulBE1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
St. John'sBE1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Norfolk St.MEAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Oral RobertsSum1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
LipscombASun1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Western CarolinaSC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
XavierBE0.230.2384.3884.380.160.16
Seton HallBE0.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
Georgia TechACC0.230.2357.5857.580.030.03
TulaneAmer0.220.2235.2935.29-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.200.2068.7568.750.080.08
WoffordSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1884.3884.380.130.13
Florida St.ACC0.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Kansas St.B120.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
HoustonAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
SMUAmer0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
UCFAmer0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ElonCAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1376.6776.670.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
DelawareCAA0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
BaylorB120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
MercerSC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01