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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:96.8
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:29
Current SOS:135
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-821.70.23%
20-930.00.83%
19-1039.02.38%
18-1148.45.57%
17-1261.39.81%
16-1374.414.98%
15-1489.117.54%
14-15103.617.01%
13-16119.414.70%
12-17135.79.16%
11-18152.24.81%
10-19170.32.18%
9-20186.80.63%
8-21195.00.11%
7-22225.00.04%
6-23245.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Florida (204.1)ASunH81-56W100%0.0
11-18Baylor (25.0)B12H65-69L0%0.0
11-20Cornell (270.0)IvyN69-45W100%0.0
11-21Charlotte (70.3)CUSAN63-65L0%0.0
11-23Akron (94.2)MACN63-68L0%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (197.4)BSthH0-089%14.8
12-1Marshall (166.9)CUSAA0-063%4.0
12-6Oklahoma St. (75.6)B12H0-060%3.0
12-19Clemson (118.4)ACCH0-064%4.3
12-30North Carolina A&T (322.8)MEACH0-097%23.3
1-3Iowa St. (48.3)B12N0-037%-3.9
1-7Florida (23.1)SECH0-038%-3.8
1-10Mississippi (99.5)SECA0-044%-1.8
1-13Alabama (63.9)SECH0-060%2.9
1-17Auburn (185.4)SECA0-064%4.4
1-20Tennessee (155.6)SECH0-077%8.7
1-24Kentucky (2.7)SECH0-016%-11.9
1-28LSU (88.5)SECA0-041%-2.8
1-31Georgia (78.8)SECH0-062%3.6
2-3Arkansas (18.7)SECA0-018%-11.2
2-7Vanderbilt (126.3)SECA0-048%-0.6
2-10Missouri (158.8)SECH0-078%9.3
2-14Kentucky (2.7)SECA0-06%-19.1
2-17Georgia (78.8)SECA0-038%-3.6
2-21Texas A&M (49.2)SECH0-051%0.3
2-24Alabama (63.9)SECA0-036%-4.3
2-28Mississippi St. (179.4)SECH0-081%10.4
3-5Arkansas (18.7)SECH0-037%-4.0
3-7Tennessee (155.6)SECA0-055%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC30.3326.1432.0046.65-10.92-1.75
ArkansasSEC0.004.12100.0081.590.002.60
AlabamaSEC0.004.1280.0059.480.000.78
KentuckySEC0.004.09100.0089.580.003.24
GeorgiaSEC0.004.0675.0056.250.000.51
TennesseeSEC0.004.0550.0043.790.00-0.50
VanderbiltSEC0.002.48100.0052.880.000.14
MissouriSEC0.002.4540.0037.23-0.00-0.63
AuburnSEC0.002.4550.0035.480.00-0.71
LSUSEC0.002.4360.0056.090.000.30
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.42100.0048.360.00-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.002.4275.0067.700.000.86
MississippiSEC0.002.4275.0052.610.000.13
FloridaSEC0.002.3966.6771.880.001.04
Iowa St.B120.001.9675.0063.490.000.53
BaylorB1210.001.90100.0069.4410.000.74
Oklahoma St.B120.001.87100.0055.670.000.21
CharlotteCUSA10.001.8550.0067.190.000.64
ClemsonACC0.001.8460.0052.680.000.10
MarshallCUSA0.001.8166.6750.240.000.01
North FloridaASun10.001.7833.3350.08-3.330.00
AkronMAC10.001.7550.0064.820.000.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.750.0028.24-0.00-0.76
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.7533.3352.07-0.000.07
CornellIvy10.001.7240.0037.46-2.00-0.43
Kansas St.B120.000.3360.0057.210.000.05
KansasB120.000.2666.6760.800.000.06
Texas TechB120.000.2475.0045.460.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.24100.0070.280.000.10
TexasB120.000.23100.0080.120.000.14
OklahomaB120.000.2166.6756.850.000.03
TCUB120.000.21100.0057.870.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1866.6744.670.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.17100.0049.350.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1780.0074.570.000.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1766.6739.910.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1666.6754.040.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.150.0038.95-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1525.0050.46-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1533.3353.13-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1525.0047.03-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.1540.0039.52-0.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.1560.0047.180.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1566.6749.540.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.150.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1425.0040.73-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1475.0064.660.000.04
Miami FLACC3.000.14100.0081.283.000.09
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1466.6750.750.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3352.31-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.120.0066.25-0.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.1233.3354.56-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0024.22-0.00-0.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1240.0058.90-0.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.120.0042.35-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.120.0021.34-0.00-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1240.0033.07-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.12100.0061.980.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1275.0065.600.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.1233.3344.17-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1225.0037.50-0.00-0.03
Penn St.B102.830.1283.3348.031.89-0.00
XavierBE0.000.12100.0079.400.000.07
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1275.0064.500.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0079.500.000.07
DaytonA100.000.1175.0071.680.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1125.0045.33-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.11100.0065.220.000.03
LibertyBSth1.250.1025.0029.87-0.62-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1075.0056.990.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0966.6757.980.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.07-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0025.13-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0980.0067.040.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0975.0047.410.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0059.500.000.02
PennIvy0.000.090.0025.91-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0975.0064.740.000.03
TroySB0.000.090.0042.64-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0043.100.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd1.250.090.0046.74-1.25-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.37-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0933.3346.11-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0054.250.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3330.02-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0025.530.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0840.0052.47-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.08100.0069.870.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0047.30-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.79-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0079.080.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.30-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.66-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.38-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0064.97-0.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0032.36-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0046.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0067.350.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6744.530.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.250.060.0040.78-1.25-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.54-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.06100.0072.100.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0620.0038.78-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0085.190.000.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6774.280.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0039.42-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0650.0066.080.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.34-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0680.0067.890.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0070.940.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.870.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0062.250.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0030.040.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0680.0071.450.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0620.0029.38-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.63-0.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0058.000.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6753.920.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.950.000.04
ElonCAA1.000.0650.0043.080.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.510.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0066.91-0.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0055.20-0.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0060.830.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0047.31-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.890.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0021.79-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.970.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3333.84-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.61-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC1.250.03100.0073.991.250.02
NorthwesternB101.250.03100.0043.951.25-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0030.030.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.11-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0045.09-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0039.00-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.680.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0028.11-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6755.870.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.830.0325.0039.71-0.42-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
DrexelCAA0.830.0320.0035.41-0.50-0.01
George MasonA100.830.0320.0022.51-0.50-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0051.72-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0064.410.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.830.0340.0028.76-0.17-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.43-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0340.0067.55-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3359.03-0.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.250.030.0067.43-1.250.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6738.430.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0375.0059.380.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.550.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.430.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.76-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0055.150.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.790.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.560.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0027.00-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0084.950.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0067.050.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.280.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0320.0050.95-0.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.550.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0325.0036.61-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0350.0050.280.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.52-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE1.000.030.0028.76-1.00-0.01
USCP121.000.0350.0028.900.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.300.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.610.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0025.51-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0054.27-0.000.00