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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:39.3
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:30
Current SOS:59
Current Record:6-3
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-48.00.02%
24-511.90.35%
23-615.22.33%
22-718.96.73%
21-823.313.41%
20-929.619.46%
19-1037.121.68%
18-1147.217.43%
17-1259.211.13%
16-1372.45.12%
15-1488.11.72%
14-15104.10.48%
13-16127.20.12%
12-17130.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Florida (153.3)ASunH81-56W100%0.0
11-18Baylor (11.0)B12H65-69L0%0.0
11-20Cornell (177.6)IvyN69-45W100%0.0
11-21Charlotte (85.6)CUSAN63-65L0%0.0
11-23Akron (153.5)MACN63-68L0%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (226.2)BSthH89-75W100%0.0
12-1Marshall (231.1)CUSAA59-77W100%0.0
12-6Oklahoma St. (29.8)B12H75-49W100%0.0
12-19Clemson (165.7)ACCH68-45W100%0.0
12-30North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACH0-0100%30.5
1-3Iowa St. (30.7)B12N0-052%0.7
1-7Florida (38.8)SECH0-064%4.3
1-10Mississippi (101.2)SECA0-067%5.0
1-13Alabama (90.0)SECH0-084%11.6
1-17Auburn (171.1)SECA0-078%9.2
1-20Tennessee (131.8)SECH0-090%15.0
1-24Kentucky (1.3)SECH0-016%-11.6
1-28LSU (69.7)SECA0-058%2.3
1-31Georgia (54.3)SECH0-076%8.2
2-3Arkansas (41.7)SECA0-045%-1.6
2-7Vanderbilt (103.7)SECA0-058%2.4
2-10Missouri (181.2)SECH0-095%18.7
2-14Kentucky (1.3)SECA0-04%-20.0
2-17Georgia (54.3)SECA0-050%-0.1
2-21Texas A&M (71.4)SECH0-080%9.7
2-24Alabama (90.0)SECA0-061%3.2
2-28Mississippi St. (226.2)SECH0-095%18.7
3-5Arkansas (41.7)SECH0-072%6.8
3-7Tennessee (131.8)SECA0-071%6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC27.6926.1258.5463.824.737.22
ArkansasSEC0.284.1080.0074.310.172.00
AlabamaSEC0.004.1066.6756.020.000.49
KentuckySEC0.004.07100.0096.730.003.81
GeorgiaSEC0.004.0462.5060.600.000.86
TennesseeSEC0.004.0455.5648.210.00-0.14
VanderbiltSEC0.282.4666.6758.770.090.43
AuburnSEC0.282.4450.0040.420.00-0.47
MissouriSEC0.002.4340.0033.18-0.00-0.82
LSUSEC0.282.4180.0064.630.170.70
Texas A&MSEC0.282.4170.0062.730.110.61
MississippiSEC0.002.4070.0053.240.000.16
Mississippi St.SEC0.002.4044.4438.50-0.00-0.55
FloridaSEC0.002.3863.6466.200.000.77
Iowa St.B120.001.9590.0066.100.000.63
BaylorB125.561.9088.8972.324.320.85
Oklahoma St.B125.561.87100.0065.275.560.57
CharlotteCUSA5.951.8550.0062.880.000.48
ClemsonACC5.561.8466.6745.411.85-0.17
MarshallCUSA5.561.8125.0037.83-2.78-0.44
North FloridaASun5.561.7855.5659.960.620.35
AkronMAC5.561.7555.5654.640.620.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.750.0024.52-0.00-0.89
UNC AshevilleBSth5.811.7516.6746.22-3.87-0.13
CornellIvy5.561.7262.5050.451.390.02
Kansas St.B120.000.3263.6440.190.00-0.06
KansasB120.000.3290.0070.680.000.13
West VirginiaB120.310.2390.9170.080.250.09
TCUB120.000.23100.0067.700.000.08
Texas TechB120.000.2390.0055.360.000.02
TexasB120.000.2390.9179.980.000.14
OklahomaB120.000.2070.0062.710.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.1844.4449.14-0.03-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1790.0082.310.000.11
Georgia TechACC0.000.1780.0053.260.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.310.1742.8636.81-0.04-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1563.6467.210.000.05
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1520.0040.93-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.400.1530.0036.69-0.16-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.400.1545.4537.60-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.280.1454.5541.980.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1442.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.590.1450.0047.880.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1454.5559.560.000.03
MercerSC0.000.1444.4444.02-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1450.0051.710.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.1477.7870.890.000.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1442.8626.99-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.1420.0052.97-0.170.01
Miami FLACC0.780.1481.8266.010.500.05
RadfordBSth0.000.1355.5658.650.000.02
WinthropBSth0.280.1225.0044.27-0.14-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1257.1470.520.000.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.280.1237.5050.31-0.070.00
LipscombASun0.000.1222.2238.44-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.560.120.0011.94-0.56-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1210.0018.05-0.00-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.1218.1827.33-0.20-0.05
Penn St.B101.150.1291.6755.310.960.01
YaleIvy0.000.1266.6761.820.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1266.6767.930.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1175.0061.480.000.03
XavierBE0.000.1172.7367.590.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.310.11100.0084.930.310.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.1130.0031.48-0.12-0.04
UCLAP120.000.1166.6754.480.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1172.7374.850.000.06
DaytonA100.000.1180.0069.770.000.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1140.0046.19-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.280.1025.0035.39-0.14-0.03
High PointBSth0.280.1066.6761.790.090.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3343.14-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.400.0971.4363.770.170.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0918.1830.76-0.18-0.03
PurdueB100.280.0966.6759.370.090.02
PennIvy0.000.0937.5032.63-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.530.0944.4451.07-0.060.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4450.41-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0975.0058.160.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.099.0917.12-0.00-0.06
Oregon St.P120.310.0977.7856.220.170.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0960.0033.270.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0954.5548.490.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6758.000.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0015.00-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0936.3646.72-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.98-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.250.0937.5034.64-0.06-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.0920.0044.37-0.17-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0034.33-0.00-0.03
TroySB0.000.0933.3339.85-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0845.4545.10-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0816.6740.27-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0043.93-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0025.85-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.710.0650.0037.570.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7870.160.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.17-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.74-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.260.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2229.80-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.310.0642.8648.87-0.04-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.00-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0690.9168.230.000.02
MemphisAmer0.590.0660.0062.070.120.01
NevadaMWC0.280.0611.1125.48-0.22-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.590.060.0039.10-0.59-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0660.0058.120.000.01
TulsaAmer0.310.0660.0056.620.060.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.74-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7367.960.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.540.000.05
IllinoisB100.280.0675.0065.140.140.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0048.980.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.65-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0067.830.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6777.120.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.280.0654.5532.590.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.80-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.380.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.32-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0633.3355.24-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0672.7375.740.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0655.5652.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.480.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.740.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.69-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.770.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.250.0670.0059.220.100.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3645.11-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0620.0026.07-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0057.390.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.710.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.710.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.57-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.400.0333.3337.91-0.13-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.60-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.280.0390.9183.090.230.02
NorthwesternB100.280.0363.6442.810.08-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.310.030.0011.24-0.31-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3334.04-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.39-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.310.0355.5662.150.030.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0333.3349.35-0.10-0.00
ColgatePat0.310.0320.0042.59-0.19-0.00
DrexelCAA0.310.0322.2235.90-0.17-0.01
George MasonA100.310.0333.3330.21-0.10-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.310.0333.3328.13-0.10-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.61-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0316.6737.21-0.21-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6735.27-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.250.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3648.18-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3349.54-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.36-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0320.0045.74-0.19-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.310.0350.0050.490.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0082.630.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0318.1837.71-0.18-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.600.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5745.89-0.12-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.530.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0318.1819.46-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.090.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0066.220.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0362.5072.070.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.620.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2935.86-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0337.5049.31-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0333.3361.74-0.090.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.47-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.280.0355.5655.280.030.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0044.08-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0051.780.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.0366.6778.020.090.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0388.8955.860.000.00
UMBCAE0.280.0318.1825.30-0.18-0.01
USCP120.280.0360.0036.410.06-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0354.5548.260.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0381.8273.180.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.030.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.280.0337.5031.88-0.07-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0370.0064.680.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0350.0058.070.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.0375.0052.140.000.00
DavidsonA100.250.0388.8977.320.200.02
George WashingtonA100.250.0366.6765.500.080.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.17-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0336.3648.28-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.440.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0337.5044.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1457.100.000.00