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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:172.1
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:56
Current SOS:41
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:1-7
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.06%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:204



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1390.00.02%
16-14108.50.24%
15-15121.61.83%
14-16136.68.17%
13-17152.820.18%
12-18170.129.73%
11-19187.125.21%
10-20202.212.27%
9-21216.02.34%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Western Carolina (259.9)SCH75-50W100%0.0
11-15Elon (223.5)SCA58-53L0%0.0
11-20Tennessee St. (155.4)OVCH63-64L0%0.0
11-22Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH61-57W100%0.0
11-25North Carolina (4.6)ACCN87-62L0%0.0
11-26Southern California (232.8)P12N63-60L0%0.0
12-1Providence (146.8)BEH67-76L0%0.0
12-4Clemson (148.3)ACCA55-58W100%0.0
12-13Presbyterian (253.5)BSthH66-58W100%0.0
12-17Ohio St. (3.4)B10H66-74L0%0.0
12-21Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)SlndH62-43W100%0.0
12-28Wofford (173.4)SCH57-45W100%0.0
12-31South Carolina Upstate (159.3)ASunH72-66W100%0.0
1-3South Carolina St. (337.8)MEACH79-51W100%0.0
1-7Kentucky (4.3)SECA79-64L0%0.0
1-10Vanderbilt (31.5)SECH57-67L0%0.0
1-14Florida (14.9)SECH65-79L0%0.0
1-21Auburn (147.6)SECA63-52L0%0.0
1-25Alabama (30.4)SECH56-54W100%0.0
1-28Mississippi (70.0)SECA66-62L0%0.0
2-2Florida (14.9)SECA74-66L0%0.0
2-4Kentucky (4.3)SECH52-86L0%0.0
2-8Tennessee (136.4)SECA0-026%-6.9
2-11Arkansas (65.9)SECA0-021%-9.0
2-15Georgia (132.0)SECH0-061%3.0
2-18Louisiana St. (85.2)SECH0-045%-1.5
2-22Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA0-012%-13.0
2-25Tennessee (136.4)SECH0-049%-0.1
2-29Mississippi St. (41.7)SECH0-037%-3.6
3-3Georgia (132.0)SECA0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.3226.1131.6332.37-9.67-9.21
FloridaSEC4.753.9980.9576.092.942.08
GeorgiaSEC0.493.9945.4540.47-0.04-0.76
KentuckySEC4.703.9695.4592.064.273.33
VanderbiltSEC2.473.9468.1863.910.901.10
TennesseeSEC0.393.9345.4543.42-0.04-0.52
ArkansasSEC0.462.3069.5764.680.180.68
MississippiSEC2.522.2461.9055.220.600.23
Mississippi St.SEC0.302.2278.2672.650.171.00
AlabamaSEC2.472.2171.4371.481.060.95
AuburnSEC2.472.2154.5547.050.22-0.13
Louisiana St.SEC0.352.2159.0957.340.060.32
North CarolinaACC2.531.8486.3682.601.841.20
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.521.8352.3860.160.120.37
Western CarolinaSC2.481.8236.3638.57-0.68-0.41
WoffordSC2.371.8161.9059.990.560.36
ElonSC2.371.7847.3745.57-0.12-0.16
Ohio St.B102.421.7586.3684.971.761.22
Southern CaliforniaP122.271.7221.7422.64-1.28-0.94
Tennessee St.OVC2.371.7254.5551.370.220.05
South Carolina UpstateASun2.321.7257.1458.090.330.28
PresbyterianBSth2.321.7042.8645.27-0.33-0.16
ClemsonACC2.271.6952.3850.030.110.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.271.6929.4130.76-0.94-0.65
ProvidenceBE2.271.6754.5548.610.21-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC2.271.6710.5315.48-1.79-1.15
FurmanSC0.260.2647.6248.83-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.300.2627.2735.02-0.14-0.08
College of CharlestonSC0.270.2358.3359.980.040.05
The CitadelSC0.270.239.5211.44-0.22-0.18
Appalachian St.SC0.210.2035.0039.29-0.06-0.04
NC GreensboroSC0.160.2034.7833.46-0.05-0.07
SamfordSC0.250.2033.3335.26-0.08-0.06
DavidsonSC0.200.2076.1976.760.110.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.1970.8364.420.090.06
DukeACC0.150.1986.3683.090.110.13
North FloridaASun0.300.1945.8346.68-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.1939.1342.12-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.200.1768.1867.640.070.06
JacksonvilleASun0.250.1717.3922.00-0.17-0.09
VirginiaACC0.110.1781.8276.800.070.09
Florida St.ACC0.250.1672.7371.710.110.07
ArizonaP120.200.1666.6768.550.070.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1534.7838.42-0.05-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1525.0023.75-0.08-0.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.210.1440.0041.30-0.04-0.03
LamarSlnd0.210.1461.9067.230.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1450.0051.730.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1419.0522.37-0.13-0.08
WinthropBSth0.100.1434.7834.61-0.03-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.148.708.99-0.09-0.12
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1452.3852.860.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.100.1415.0015.73-0.07-0.09
WisconsinB100.200.1475.0073.970.100.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.1419.0525.52-0.12-0.07
MarquetteBE0.150.1479.1775.980.090.07
LouisvilleBE0.190.1378.2672.660.110.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.124.359.66-0.09-0.10
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.1234.7838.77-0.05-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1233.3335.97-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1272.2271.970.070.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.1235.2939.85-0.01-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.128.7011.67-0.13-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.160.1145.0046.13-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.110.1130.0027.84-0.04-0.05
RadfordBSth0.150.118.7013.10-0.12-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1117.6527.10-0.10-0.05
MercerASun0.100.1170.8371.640.040.05
CincinnatiBE0.050.1169.5765.470.020.03
PittsburghBE0.110.1160.8758.160.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.1183.3384.760.100.08
StetsonASun0.150.1131.8231.31-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.150.1147.8343.66-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.000.1169.5771.510.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.100.1130.0034.15-0.04-0.04
Notre DameBE0.050.1165.2262.650.020.03
OaklandSum0.050.1148.0050.21-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.1175.0074.610.020.05
ConnecticutBE0.000.1168.1863.990.000.03
MarylandACC0.100.1159.0950.820.020.00
Miami FLACC0.150.1165.0060.020.050.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1161.9055.140.020.01
XavierA100.050.1165.2263.740.020.03
Penn St.B100.200.1141.6738.67-0.03-0.02
RutgersBE0.150.1150.0046.810.00-0.01
IndianaB100.190.1175.0075.780.100.06
KansasB120.190.1178.2678.390.110.06
SyracuseBE0.200.1195.8392.010.180.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0941.1842.61-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0955.0054.480.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.110.0934.7834.48-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0955.0060.330.010.02
High PointBSth0.150.0931.8232.75-0.06-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0938.1042.78-0.03-0.01
BelmontASun0.100.0969.5773.280.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.0925.0037.58-0.08-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0952.3857.860.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.0945.0044.15-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.160.0957.1453.120.020.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.150.0819.0524.61-0.09-0.04
DaytonA100.150.0860.8760.960.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0835.0040.78-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.150.0873.9168.430.070.03
PurdueB100.100.0865.2260.580.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.0830.0037.30-0.06-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0817.3924.41-0.07-0.04
ColoradoP120.050.0866.6762.650.020.02
DePaulBE0.100.0850.0042.830.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0831.8242.13-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.0856.5255.200.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.150.0830.4326.44-0.06-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.100.0880.9577.380.060.04
South FloridaBE0.100.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0872.7366.810.020.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0876.1972.910.030.04
MonmouthNEC0.100.0828.0028.91-0.04-0.03
NebraskaB100.150.0852.3846.680.01-0.01
OregonP120.100.0869.5764.530.040.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0863.6463.160.030.02
St. John'sBE0.140.0843.4840.28-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MB120.100.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.0841.6740.61-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0627.7829.87-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0647.6247.18-0.01-0.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0622.2227.62-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.110.069.5213.19-0.09-0.04
CampbellBSth0.100.0656.0055.650.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0627.2727.21-0.02-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.06100.0094.550.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0633.3337.25-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0638.8943.93-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0660.8759.760.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0685.7178.050.070.03
BradleyMVC0.100.0624.0024.86-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0643.4843.82-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0690.9183.850.050.04
OklahomaB120.060.0659.0954.700.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0662.5061.500.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0616.6723.02-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0673.9175.490.000.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0643.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.0550.0056.760.000.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.000.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.100.0554.1749.440.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0571.4373.350.040.03
North TexasSB0.000.0550.0050.010.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.0565.2263.740.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0552.3852.870.000.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.100.0557.1449.540.01-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0530.4331.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0543.4844.25-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.9175.000.020.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0581.8280.430.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0572.7364.430.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
LafayettePat0.050.0543.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.090.0577.2773.450.050.03
MaristMAAC0.090.0534.7833.43-0.03-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0569.5761.310.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0582.6181.440.060.03
Old DominionCAA0.090.0560.0058.290.020.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0521.7421.70-0.05-0.03
RiderMAAC0.100.0537.5038.52-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0569.5768.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.100.0540.9139.82-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
WashingtonP120.050.0569.5766.540.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0550.0048.170.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.000.0565.2265.170.000.02
YaleIvy0.100.0572.2263.190.040.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0326.3229.79-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0347.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0318.1821.13-0.04-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.060.0376.1975.940.030.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.000.0357.1460.750.000.01
Texas TechB120.060.0331.8225.98-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.060.0360.8759.050.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0355.0054.800.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0373.9168.580.030.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0366.6769.690.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0336.3638.48-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0318.1822.22-0.04-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0368.1869.680.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8641.13-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0334.7832.06-0.02-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0335.0035.26-0.00-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.420.030.02
AkronMAC0.000.0368.1867.910.000.01
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.038.3310.86-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.01
CharlotteA100.000.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0345.4544.02-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0354.5554.300.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.13-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.000.0336.3639.72-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.05-0.01-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0320.8320.60-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.050.0360.8761.370.010.01
TroySB0.000.0328.5730.17-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.01-0.03-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.000.0350.0052.930.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.000.0354.5557.690.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
VillanovaBE0.000.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00