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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:42
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1042.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAH85-76W100%0.0
11-13Holy Cross (204.0)PatH81-49W100%0.0
11-15Monmouth (49.0)MAACH70-69W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH92-50W100%0.0
11-23Michigan (25.0)B10H61-46W100%0.0
11-26Syracuse (84.0)ACCN64-50W100%0.0
12-1Vermont (46.0)AEH68-50W100%0.0
12-4FIU (338.0)CUSAH70-54W100%0.0
12-12Seton Hall (43.0)BEN67-64L0%0.0
12-17South Florida (316.0)AmerA66-77W100%0.0
12-21Clemson (69.0)ACCH60-62L0%0.0
12-30Memphis (120.0)AmerA70-54L0%0.0
1-4Georgia (52.0)SECA61-67W100%0.0
1-7Texas A&M (92.0)SECH79-68W100%0.0
1-11Tennessee (82.0)SECA60-70W100%0.0
1-14Mississippi (77.0)SECH67-56W100%0.0
1-18Florida (10.0)SECH57-53W100%0.0
1-21Kentucky (3.0)SECA85-69L0%0.0
1-24Auburn (113.0)SECH98-69W100%0.0
1-28Missouri (257.0)SECA53-63W100%0.0
2-1LSU (193.0)SECA63-88W100%0.0
2-4Georgia (52.0)SECH77-75W100%0.0
2-7Alabama (78.0)SECH86-90L0%0.0
2-11Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA73-77W100%0.0
2-15Arkansas (28.0)SECH76-83L0%0.0
2-18Vanderbilt (44.0)SECA71-62L0%0.0
2-21Florida (10.0)SECA81-66L0%0.0
2-25Tennessee (82.0)SECH82-55W100%0.0
2-28Mississippi St. (150.0)SECH63-57W100%0.0
3-4Mississippi (77.0)SECA75-70L0%0.0
3-10Alabama (78.0)SECN53-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.0826.0865.9365.938.318.31
AlabamaSEC3.933.9354.8454.840.380.38
Mississippi St.SEC3.903.9053.3353.330.260.26
GeorgiaSEC3.903.9060.0060.000.780.78
MississippiSEC3.883.8861.2961.290.880.88
TennesseeSEC3.853.8551.7251.720.130.13
FloridaSEC3.823.8276.6776.672.042.04
KentuckySEC2.392.3984.8584.851.671.67
VanderbiltSEC2.342.3454.5554.550.210.21
ArkansasSEC2.312.3172.7372.731.051.05
MissouriSEC2.312.3125.8125.81-1.12-1.12
AuburnSEC2.292.2958.0658.060.370.37
LSUSEC2.292.2933.3333.33-0.76-0.76
Texas A&MSEC2.242.2453.3353.330.150.15
ClemsonACC1.771.7751.6151.610.060.06
MemphisAmer1.741.7458.0658.060.280.28
South Carolina St.MEAC1.741.7432.1432.14-0.62-0.62
MonmouthMAAC1.721.7284.3884.381.181.18
SyracuseACC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
Holy CrossPat1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
South FloridaAmer1.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
Louisiana TechCUSA1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
FIUCUSA1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
MichiganB101.611.6170.5970.590.660.66
VermontAE1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
Georgia TechACC0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
MarquetteBE0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
UABCUSA0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1587.8887.880.120.12
Miami FLACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
HoustonAmer0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
WisconsinB100.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
TexasB120.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
DukeACC0.130.1377.1477.140.070.07
Florida St.ACC0.130.1375.7675.760.060.06
OklahomaB120.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
TempleAmer0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1096.9796.970.100.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
OregonP120.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MercerSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
SMUAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
ProvidenceBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MaineAE0.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
ArmyPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
BucknellPat0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.060.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00