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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:91.0
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:37
Current SOS:37
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:132



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1691.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Florida (162.0)ASunH81-56W100%0.0
11-18Baylor (10.0)B12H65-69L0%0.0
11-20Cornell (227.0)IvyN69-45W100%0.0
11-21Charlotte (211.0)CUSAN63-65L0%0.0
11-23Akron (115.0)MACN63-68L0%0.0
11-26UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH89-75W100%0.0
12-1Marshall (296.0)CUSAA59-77W100%0.0
12-6Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H75-49W100%0.0
12-19Clemson (106.0)ACCH68-45W100%0.0
12-30North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH91-54W100%0.0
1-3Iowa St. (9.0)B12N60-64W100%0.0
1-7Florida (72.0)SECH68-72L0%0.0
1-10Mississippi (60.0)SECA65-49L0%0.0
1-13Alabama (85.0)SECH68-66W100%0.0
1-17Auburn (129.0)SECA71-68L0%0.0
1-20Tennessee (96.0)SECH62-66L0%0.0
1-24Kentucky (1.0)SECH43-58L0%0.0
1-28LSU (57.0)SECA64-58L0%0.0
1-31Georgia (38.0)SECH67-50W100%0.0
2-3Arkansas (19.0)SECA75-55L0%0.0
2-7Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA65-50L0%0.0
2-10Missouri (218.0)SECH65-60W100%0.0
2-14Kentucky (1.0)SECA77-43L0%0.0
2-17Georgia (38.0)SECA58-64W100%0.0
2-21Texas A&M (67.0)SECH52-62L0%0.0
2-24Alabama (85.0)SECA59-51L0%0.0
2-28Mississippi St. (216.0)SECH81-68W100%0.0
3-5Arkansas (19.0)SECH74-78L0%0.0
3-7Tennessee (96.0)SECA49-60W100%0.0
3-11Missouri (218.0)SECN63-54W100%0.0
3-12Mississippi (60.0)SECN58-60W100%0.0
3-13Georgia (38.0)SECN74-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.2326.2346.5846.58-1.80-1.80
GeorgiaSEC5.315.3168.9768.972.022.02
ArkansasSEC3.983.9875.0075.001.991.99
KentuckySEC3.883.88100.00100.003.883.88
MississippiSEC3.783.7863.3363.331.011.01
TennesseeSEC3.783.7850.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC3.783.7855.1755.170.390.39
MissouriSEC3.783.7827.5927.59-1.69-1.69
AuburnSEC2.422.4239.3939.39-0.51-0.51
VanderbiltSEC2.342.3456.6756.670.310.31
FloridaSEC2.322.3246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Mississippi St.SEC2.292.2940.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Texas A&MSEC2.272.2763.3363.330.600.60
LSUSEC2.272.2767.7467.740.800.80
Iowa St.B121.761.7678.1278.120.990.99
BaylorB121.711.7170.9770.970.720.72
Oklahoma St.B121.711.7158.6258.620.290.29
CharlotteCUSA1.671.6741.9441.94-0.27-0.27
ClemsonACC1.661.6653.3353.330.110.11
MarshallCUSA1.631.6331.0331.03-0.62-0.62
North FloridaASun1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
AkronMAC1.591.5957.5857.580.240.24
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
UNC AshevilleBSth1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
CornellIvy1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
KansasB120.310.3176.4776.470.170.17
Kansas St.B120.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
West VirginiaB120.220.2271.8871.880.100.10
TCUB120.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
TexasB120.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
Texas TechB120.200.2040.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
USC UpstateASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
LipscombASun0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
Western CarolinaSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
LibertyBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.040.04
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0755.5655.560.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0286.6786.670.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01