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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:46.6
Current RPI:26
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:131
Current Record:19-3
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:33
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-316.61.28%
26-422.47.98%
25-530.720.19%
24-642.928.93%
23-755.824.79%
22-868.412.47%
21-981.73.71%
20-1096.30.60%
19-11112.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Norfolk St. (212.4)MEACH84-69W100%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (151.4)SumH84-66W100%0.0
11-20DePaul (163.9)BEN76-61W100%0.0
11-22Hofstra (71.2)CAAN94-84W100%0.0
11-23Tulsa (73.3)AmerN83-75W100%0.0
11-27Lipscomb (275.0)ASunH92-76W100%0.0
11-30Western Carolina (239.3)SCH76-53W100%0.0
12-5South Florida (242.2)AmerH81-63W100%0.0
12-15Drexel (265.5)CAAH79-54W100%0.0
12-18Clemson (100.4)ACCA59-65W100%0.0
12-22St. John's (227.9)BEN75-61W100%0.0
1-2Memphis (113.8)AmerH86-76W100%0.0
1-5Auburn (158.9)SECA69-81W100%0.0
1-9Vanderbilt (53.3)SECH69-65W100%0.0
1-13Alabama (82.8)SECA73-50L0%0.0
1-16Missouri (218.5)SECH81-72W100%0.0
1-19Mississippi (111.4)SECA74-77W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee (118.4)SECA78-69L0%0.0
1-26Mississippi St. (176.8)SECH84-74W100%0.0
1-30Alabama (82.8)SECH78-64W100%0.0
2-2Georgia (78.6)SECA69-56L0%0.0
2-6Texas A&M (21.8)SECA78-81W100%0.0
2-10LSU (81.4)SECH0-067%4.9
2-13Kentucky (19.7)SECH0-043%-1.8
2-16Missouri (218.5)SECA0-074%7.1
2-20Florida (24.1)SECH0-048%-0.7
2-24Tennessee (118.4)SECH0-075%7.5
2-27Mississippi St. (176.8)SECA0-058%2.1
3-3Georgia (78.6)SECH0-071%6.2
3-5Arkansas (88.9)SECA0-037%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.2126.1190.0079.3420.9715.32
AlabamaSEC4.953.9660.0053.240.990.26
GeorgiaSEC2.623.9360.0056.130.520.48
MissouriSEC2.693.9136.3631.57-0.73-1.44
Mississippi St.SEC2.573.9142.8642.04-0.37-0.62
TennesseeSEC2.633.8845.4545.81-0.24-0.33
MississippiSEC2.682.3868.1860.990.980.52
AuburnSEC2.632.3542.8637.88-0.38-0.57
ArkansasSEC0.352.3552.1755.710.020.27
KentuckySEC0.452.3573.9172.070.221.04
LSUSEC0.462.3265.2261.200.140.52
Texas A&MSEC2.532.3281.8280.641.611.42
VanderbiltSEC2.632.3259.0962.000.480.56
FloridaSEC0.362.3065.2266.540.110.76
ClemsonACC2.431.7863.6462.280.660.44
MemphisAmer2.371.7863.6462.830.650.46
South FloridaAmer2.321.7821.7420.79-1.31-1.04
DePaulBE2.321.7536.3635.63-0.63-0.50
TulsaAmer2.321.7566.6762.030.770.42
Norfolk St.MEAC2.431.7542.8651.02-0.350.04
St. John'sBE2.321.7527.2724.55-1.06-0.89
HofstraCAA2.381.7371.4367.621.020.61
DrexelCAA2.381.7214.2918.82-1.70-1.08
Oral RobertsSum2.321.7240.9142.64-0.42-0.25
LipscombASun2.271.6726.0930.31-1.09-0.66
Western CarolinaSC2.271.6730.0032.53-0.91-0.58
XavierBE0.400.2591.3084.380.330.17
Seton HallBE0.250.2273.9169.840.120.09
CincinnatiAmer0.350.2270.8370.930.150.09
TulaneAmer0.300.2233.3332.33-0.10-0.08
Florida St.ACC0.250.1969.5764.880.100.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.1954.5552.810.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1763.6460.930.060.04
WoffordSC0.200.1740.9145.38-0.04-0.02
Kansas St.B120.200.1660.8758.450.040.03
ButlerBE0.250.1669.5767.220.100.06
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1645.4542.00-0.01-0.03
HoustonAmer0.150.1672.7368.020.070.06
SMUAmer0.150.1690.4885.570.120.12
TempleAmer0.150.1663.6459.810.040.03
UCFAmer0.200.1652.3845.670.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.200.1569.5768.500.080.05
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1586.3685.030.110.10
NortheasternCAA0.100.1545.8346.65-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1421.7423.31-0.06-0.08
TowsonCAA0.200.1465.2259.750.060.03
Missouri St.MVC0.200.1439.1337.74-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.200.1465.2266.160.060.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1421.7423.40-0.09-0.07
NJITASun0.190.1454.1755.260.020.01
MarquetteBE0.150.1462.5056.260.040.02
ConnecticutAmer0.150.1472.7372.450.070.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1450.0049.100.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.150.1252.1750.430.010.00
High PointBSth0.160.1255.0057.470.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1276.1973.380.080.05
William & MaryCAA0.100.1271.4369.840.040.05
MercerSC0.110.1172.7370.750.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1159.0959.440.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1156.5256.310.010.01
WinthropBSth0.160.1165.0063.440.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.190.1122.7323.25-0.11-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1125.0033.22-0.08-0.04
BaylorB120.150.1172.7366.500.070.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1122.7327.18-0.08-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1147.6252.06-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1150.0049.850.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.1165.2267.130.010.04
CreightonBE0.150.1162.5059.780.040.02
GeorgetownBE0.150.1154.1752.340.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1175.0070.940.050.05
VillanovaBE0.050.1186.9686.370.040.08
Miami FLACC0.100.1180.9575.490.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1135.0035.99-0.04-0.03
DaytonA100.150.1186.3682.350.110.07
SouthernSWAC0.100.1165.0066.790.030.04
George WashingtonA100.150.1178.2674.360.080.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.1143.4840.60-0.01-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1145.4547.57-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.100.0954.1751.800.010.00
IUPUISum0.100.0940.0039.79-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.0952.3854.010.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0947.8350.14-0.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.150.0952.1751.940.010.00
IllinoisB100.100.0847.8344.55-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.100.0886.3682.100.070.05
Notre DameACC0.100.0869.5765.850.040.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0845.4554.10-0.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.150.0872.7376.350.070.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0830.4335.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0866.6762.630.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0847.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0831.5831.99-0.06-0.03
SyracuseACC0.150.0866.6762.570.050.02
Texas TechB120.050.0859.0953.130.010.01
NorthwesternB100.100.0866.6763.430.030.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0818.7526.45-0.06-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.100.0878.2676.870.060.04
FurmanSC0.050.0652.1753.310.000.00
IPFWSum0.100.0670.8368.570.040.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0663.6462.150.030.01
SamfordSC0.050.0639.1341.32-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.100.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.850.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0633.3331.30-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.0628.5731.90-0.05-0.02
VMISC0.110.0615.7917.42-0.07-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.100.0620.0020.47-0.06-0.03
IonaMAAC0.100.0659.0959.660.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.100.0660.8762.990.020.01
Penn St.B100.100.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.100.0676.1968.220.050.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0666.6766.540.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.35-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0657.1459.450.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0638.1040.73-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0026.76-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0645.4549.71-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.970.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.0672.2274.710.040.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.69-0.02-0.03
DetroitHorz0.100.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0682.6178.860.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.12-0.08-0.04
OhioMAC0.100.0661.9059.420.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.040.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0637.5040.51-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0675.0076.230.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.14-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.100.0680.9582.700.060.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.670.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0690.4886.860.080.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0630.4326.49-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0625.0024.37-0.05-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.750.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0628.5726.96-0.02-0.03
OregonP120.100.0681.8278.150.070.03
RutgersB100.100.0621.7420.35-0.06-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0573.9170.060.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0540.0039.00-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0582.6177.730.030.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0540.9139.32-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.100.0582.6179.430.060.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0533.3335.50-0.03-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.870.020.03
ArizonaP120.050.0579.1778.310.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0554.1751.650.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0542.8639.18-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0552.1753.360.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.1755.580.000.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8277.570.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0571.4368.720.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0550.0051.170.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0554.1751.820.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0563.1658.810.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0558.3354.170.010.00
PurdueB100.050.0579.1776.550.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0513.6415.80-0.07-0.04
TCUB120.050.0543.4837.22-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.100.0569.5762.640.040.01
TroySB0.100.0523.8126.69-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.780.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.340.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.14-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.12-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0341.6743.87-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.5213.53-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0321.0523.59-0.03-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.08-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.06-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.18-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6767.270.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.100.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.610.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.930.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.81-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.05-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.300.020.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.53-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.680.040.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.24-0.04-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0356.2556.100.010.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.030.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0325.0025.47-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.430.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0313.6413.63-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.290.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01
AmericanPat0.000.0330.4331.88-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0312.5012.85-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0323.8126.56-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0352.0050.260.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.21-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.7920.03-0.03-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0354.1750.940.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.070.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.21-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0317.6529.25-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0383.3383.010.000.02
NavyPat0.000.0362.5062.440.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.91-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0354.5554.550.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3334.19-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0315.0027.27-0.03-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.510.020.01
UCLAP120.000.0356.5253.250.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
VermontAE0.000.0354.1757.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0382.6179.550.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0356.5257.000.000.00