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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:90.0
Current RPI:90
Expected SOS:27
Current SOS:27
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:100



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1690.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wofford (129.0)SCA52-73W100%0.0
11-13Western Michigan (177.0)MACH78-60W100%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (85.0)MVCN65-69L0%0.0
11-17UTEP (293.0)CUSAN56-80W100%0.0
11-19Western Michigan (177.0)MACN66-79W100%0.0
11-27FIU (295.0)CUSAA61-78W100%0.0
11-30Temple (52.0)AmerN76-60L0%0.0
12-2Massachusetts (240.0)A10H76-70W100%0.0
12-6Wyoming (98.0)MWCH80-64W100%0.0
12-9Coastal Carolina (246.0)SBH80-78W100%0.0
12-19Clemson (11.0)ACCA64-48L0%0.0
12-31Mississippi (141.0)SECA74-69L0%0.0
1-3Missouri (43.0)SECH68-79L0%0.0
1-6Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH71-60W100%0.0
1-9Alabama (42.0)SECA76-62L0%0.0
1-13Georgia (79.0)SECA57-64W100%0.0
1-16Kentucky (10.0)SECH76-68W100%0.0
1-20Tennessee (8.0)SECH63-70L0%0.0
1-24Florida (46.0)SECA72-77W100%0.0
1-27Texas Tech (23.0)B12H63-70L0%0.0
1-31Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH76-81L0%0.0
2-3Texas A&M (29.0)SECA83-60L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas (30.0)SECA81-65L0%0.0
2-10Florida (46.0)SECH41-65L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee (8.0)SECA70-67L0%0.0
2-17Auburn (15.0)SECH84-75W100%0.0
2-21Georgia (79.0)SECH66-57W100%0.0
2-24Mississippi St. (73.0)SECA72-68L0%0.0
2-28LSU (95.0)SECH83-74W100%0.0
3-3Auburn (15.0)SECA79-70L0%0.0
3-7Mississippi (141.0)SECN85-84W100%0.0
3-8Arkansas (30.0)SECN69-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC26.1726.1748.6148.61-0.73-0.73
GeorgiaSEC3.853.8558.0658.060.620.62
ArkansasSEC3.833.8365.6265.621.201.20
TennesseeSEC3.823.8274.1974.191.851.85
MississippiSEC3.803.8036.6736.67-1.01-1.01
AuburnSEC3.773.7780.0080.002.262.26
Mississippi St.SEC3.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
FloridaSEC3.753.7563.3363.331.001.00
Western MichiganMAC3.123.1253.5753.570.220.22
AlabamaSEC2.312.3154.5554.550.210.21
KentuckySEC2.312.3172.7372.731.051.05
VanderbiltSEC2.262.2638.7138.71-0.51-0.51
MissouriSEC2.262.2660.0060.000.450.45
LSUSEC2.232.2356.6756.670.300.30
Texas A&MSEC2.182.1861.2961.290.490.49
TempleAmer1.681.6851.6151.610.050.05
ClemsonACC1.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
WoffordSC1.611.6162.0762.070.390.39
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
MassachusettsA101.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
UTEPCUSA1.591.5934.4834.48-0.49-0.49
Coastal CarolinaSB1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
FIUCUSA1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Texas TechB121.591.5971.8871.880.690.69
WyomingMWC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
North FloridaASun0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.180.1817.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1876.6776.670.090.09
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Georgia TechACC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.170.1771.4371.430.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
MercerSC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1280.6580.650.080.08
TroySB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
HoustonAmer0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Iowa St.B120.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
OklahomaB120.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
AkronMAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
FurmanSC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
BaylorB120.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
La SalleA100.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0963.3363.330.030.03
KansasB120.090.0979.4179.410.060.06
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0712.5012.50-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0782.7682.760.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
HarvardIvy0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PacificWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.020.0216.1316.13-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01