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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


South Carolina

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:19.4
Current RPI:13
Expected SOS:48
Current SOS:86
Current Record:8-0
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:8-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:11
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-01.00.03%
29-12.50.27%
28-23.61.38%
27-35.84.86%
26-48.710.44%
25-512.116.94%
24-616.320.03%
23-720.918.90%
22-826.313.71%
21-933.67.80%
20-1042.23.69%
19-1152.11.39%
18-1264.20.46%
17-1375.10.07%
16-1493.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisiana Tech (102.7)CUSAH85-76W100%0.0
11-13Holy Cross (196.9)PatH81-49W100%0.0
11-15Monmouth (68.0)MAACH70-69W100%0.0
11-18South Carolina St. (307.5)MEACH92-50W100%0.0
11-23Michigan (38.7)B10H61-46W100%0.0
11-26Syracuse (52.7)ACCN64-50W100%0.0
12-1Vermont (86.8)AEH68-50W100%0.0
12-4FIU (262.2)CUSAH70-54W100%0.0
12-12Seton Hall (75.4)BEN0-068%5.6
12-17South Florida (267.6)AmerA0-093%18.1
12-21Clemson (70.5)ACCH0-075%8.0
12-30Memphis (147.9)AmerA0-075%8.0
1-4Georgia (71.7)SECA0-061%3.4
1-7Texas A&M (42.8)SECH0-066%4.8
1-11Tennessee (130.0)SECA0-072%7.1
1-14Mississippi (120.3)SECH0-089%14.6
1-18Florida (9.5)SECH0-053%0.8
1-21Kentucky (9.3)SECA0-021%-9.9
1-24Auburn (88.3)SECH0-084%11.7
1-28Missouri (183.4)SECA0-078%9.3
2-1LSU (93.4)SECA0-071%6.7
2-4Georgia (71.7)SECH0-079%9.7
2-7Alabama (122.0)SECH0-083%11.4
2-11Mississippi St. (152.0)SECA0-079%9.6
2-15Arkansas (43.1)SECH0-072%6.8
2-18Vanderbilt (79.2)SECA0-063%4.0
2-21Florida (9.5)SECA0-032%-5.5
2-25Tennessee (130.0)SECH0-087%13.4
2-28Mississippi St. (152.0)SECH0-091%15.9
3-4Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-076%8.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South CarolinaSEC28.6026.10100.0078.2928.6014.77
MississippiSEC0.003.9775.0050.630.000.05
FloridaSEC0.003.9487.5076.470.002.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.003.9475.0050.370.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.003.9357.1453.610.000.28
TennesseeSEC0.003.9340.0042.60-0.00-0.58
AlabamaSEC0.002.3557.1452.980.000.14
KentuckySEC0.002.3587.5082.910.001.55
AuburnSEC0.002.3385.7158.820.000.41
VanderbiltSEC0.002.3250.0046.550.00-0.16
Texas A&MSEC0.002.3066.6767.280.000.79
ArkansasSEC0.002.3085.7167.450.000.80
LSUSEC0.002.3071.4349.870.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.002.2957.1443.240.00-0.31
ClemsonACC0.001.8171.4355.870.000.21
MemphisAmer0.001.8075.0056.500.000.23
South Carolina St.MEAC7.481.800.0028.17-7.48-0.79
SyracuseACC7.661.7883.3368.925.100.67
MonmouthMAAC7.711.7885.7172.975.510.82
Holy CrossPat7.711.7542.8648.95-1.10-0.04
Seton HallBE0.001.7271.4355.340.000.18
South FloridaAmer0.001.7257.1434.180.00-0.54
FIUCUSA6.251.7016.6737.30-4.17-0.43
Louisiana TechCUSA6.251.7060.0073.551.250.80
MichiganB106.251.6785.7168.674.460.62
VermontAE6.251.6771.4373.782.680.79
Georgia TechACC0.000.2257.1436.010.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.450.1912.5034.79-0.33-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.390.1985.7162.990.280.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.1720.0035.47-0.00-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1725.0020.78-0.00-0.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1787.5076.230.000.09
UCFAmer0.000.1785.7176.240.000.09
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1633.3339.61-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.390.1685.7178.280.280.09
MarquetteBE0.390.1675.0066.410.200.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1687.5081.960.000.10
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.140.0035.95-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.1450.0059.920.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.1475.0066.100.000.04
TulaneAmer0.000.1412.5023.93-0.00-0.07
TexasB120.000.1457.1438.680.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1487.5065.250.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.780.1428.5736.95-0.33-0.04
WisconsinB100.450.1477.7876.040.250.07
OklahomaB120.000.1471.4348.350.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1116.6730.34-0.00-0.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1125.0029.54-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.1133.3356.24-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1171.4351.460.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1157.1471.940.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1175.0064.920.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1150.0038.050.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1183.3379.850.000.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0041.92-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1187.5070.890.000.05
NebraskaB100.520.1157.1444.890.07-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.11100.0074.440.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.390.1175.0056.590.200.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1175.0054.490.000.01
SMUAmer0.390.1166.6766.860.130.04
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0076.630.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0091.920.000.09
LehighPat0.000.1142.8666.67-0.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1157.1429.790.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.1188.8978.400.000.06
LouisvilleACC0.000.1187.5075.590.000.06
MaristMAAC0.390.1144.4434.65-0.04-0.03
MercerSC0.000.1142.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.13-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.64-0.00-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.520.090.0034.47-0.52-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0957.1471.520.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0071.470.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0971.4368.050.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.09-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0887.5082.360.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0877.7849.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0855.5641.690.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0871.4363.930.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.450.0850.0043.560.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0820.0037.65-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0812.5033.04-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0875.0072.250.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.0850.0048.810.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.450.0871.4357.970.190.01
AlbanyAE0.390.0842.8661.11-0.060.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0871.4373.040.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0855.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0850.0060.620.000.02
KansasB120.000.0887.5075.860.000.04
MaineAE0.000.0814.2924.15-0.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.390.0857.1458.840.060.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0837.5037.03-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0814.2931.35-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0862.5050.710.000.00
IowaB100.000.0837.5037.74-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0875.0049.180.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0837.5052.01-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.08100.0086.690.000.06
ArmyPat0.000.0842.8650.09-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0850.0064.350.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0842.8654.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0866.6766.340.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.390.0837.5044.39-0.10-0.01
ColgatePat0.450.0812.5029.71-0.33-0.03
MassachusettsA100.390.0871.4358.600.170.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0887.5068.020.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0875.0054.670.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.450.0657.1459.280.060.01
Wichita St.MVC0.620.0675.0086.710.310.04
HowardMEAC0.390.0616.6744.34-0.26-0.01
ElonCAA0.450.0671.4359.470.190.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.520.0685.7162.220.370.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.450.0628.5728.24-0.19-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.390.0625.0030.23-0.20-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0633.3352.11-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.33-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.06-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0628.5738.15-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.540.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.840.000.04
WoffordSC0.390.060.0034.81-0.39-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0525.0038.83-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0550.0056.740.000.01
HarvardIvy0.390.0520.0046.79-0.23-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0542.8646.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.390.0562.5043.220.10-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0051.040.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0077.380.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0585.7145.370.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0587.5062.040.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0544.4441.30-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0585.7174.990.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0587.5078.510.000.03
BaylorB120.000.05100.0076.590.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0542.8627.96-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.390.0528.5729.95-0.17-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0571.4359.880.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.490.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.030.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0533.3333.36-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0566.6761.330.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0542.8645.94-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0525.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.390.0511.1148.19-0.30-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0550.0061.240.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0525.0037.38-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0022.31-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.340.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.420.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0525.0055.33-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.520.0312.5033.65-0.39-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.41-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.520.0342.8650.12-0.070.00
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.450.0342.8638.17-0.06-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.92-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6761.550.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1450.080.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0316.6739.78-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0044.400.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.060.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.300.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
YaleIvy0.390.0342.8663.41-0.060.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.390.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0371.4370.210.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.070.000.01
IUPUISum0.390.0337.5051.64-0.100.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0328.5732.62-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.310.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0337.5033.74-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3354.47-0.000.00