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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:162.0
Current RPI:162
Expected SOS:323
Current SOS:323
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-5
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:301



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11162.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina (91.0)SECA81-56L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (125.0)B10A69-67L0%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA66-49L0%0.0
11-25Liberty (347.0)BSthN77-57W100%0.0
11-26Elon (259.0)CAAN72-65W100%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA56-63W100%0.0
12-6Purdue (55.0)B10A70-73W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH80-82L0%0.0
12-17Florida St. (110.0)ACCA93-77L0%0.0
12-19Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA65-83W100%0.0
12-22Iowa (43.0)B10A80-70L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA87-84L0%0.0
12-31Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA65-60L0%0.0
1-2Alabama (85.0)SECA76-61L0%0.0
1-10Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA63-86W100%0.0
1-14Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunH80-64W100%0.0
1-17Stetson (335.0)ASunA65-80W100%0.0
1-22Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA66-74W100%0.0
1-24Lipscomb (271.0)ASunA66-75W100%0.0
1-29Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH86-67W100%0.0
1-31USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH74-79L0%0.0
2-6Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH77-50W100%0.0
2-12USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA80-63L0%0.0
2-14Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunA51-67W100%0.0
2-19Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH93-78W100%0.0
2-21Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH88-69W100%0.0
2-25Florida Gulf Coast (137.0)ASunA62-76W100%0.0
2-28Stetson (335.0)ASunH86-71W100%0.0
3-3Stetson (335.0)ASunH81-67W100%0.0
3-5Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH71-57W100%0.0
3-8USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH63-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.6326.6370.9270.9211.1411.14
LipscombASun5.795.7944.0044.00-0.69-0.69
USC UpstateASun5.775.7762.9662.961.501.50
StetsonASun5.725.7224.0024.00-2.98-2.98
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.204.2070.3770.371.711.71
Kennesaw St.ASun4.184.1828.5728.57-1.79-1.79
JacksonvilleASun4.184.1825.9325.93-2.01-2.01
Northern KentuckyASun4.174.1742.3142.31-0.64-0.64
Tennessee TechOVC3.373.3730.7730.77-1.30-1.30
Florida A&MMEAC1.981.987.147.14-1.69-1.69
Austin PeayOVC1.841.8418.5218.52-1.16-1.16
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.811.8131.0331.03-0.69-0.69
NorthwesternB101.801.8045.1645.16-0.17-0.17
AlabamaSEC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
IowaB101.711.7164.5264.520.500.50
Florida St.ACC1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
South CarolinaSEC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC1.661.6690.6290.621.351.35
PurdueB101.661.6665.6265.620.520.52
LibertyBSth1.611.6114.8114.81-1.14-1.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.350.3523.3323.33-0.19-0.19
BelmontOVC0.320.3267.7467.740.110.11
FIUCUSA0.300.3045.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.280.2810.3410.34-0.23-0.23
ChattanoogaSC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
UCFAmer0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.210.2191.1891.180.170.17
IllinoisB100.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.200.2046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
NebraskaB100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
IPFWSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Penn St.B100.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
PrincetonIvy0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
TexasB120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1175.8675.860.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
RutgersB100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.060.06
BradleyMVC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00