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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:161.0
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:310
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-6
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:112
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11161.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois (149.0)B10A81-93W100%0.0
11-16UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH106-84W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (17.0)ACCA89-61L0%0.0
11-24Saint Louis (206.0)A10A70-57L0%0.0
11-27Hartford (292.0)AEA60-81W100%0.0
11-28St. Francis NY (276.0)NECN65-78W100%0.0
12-2LSU (94.0)SECA119-108L0%0.0
12-5Dayton (21.0)A10A86-71L0%0.0
12-14FIU (270.0)CUSAH94-72W100%0.0
12-16Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
12-19Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH87-70W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas (133.0)SECA97-72L0%0.0
12-30VCU (37.0)A10A80-68L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA77-82W100%0.0
1-6Stetson (303.0)ASunA79-97W100%0.0
1-9Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH83-68W100%0.0
1-14Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH95-83W100%0.0
1-16Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH93-78W100%0.0
1-21USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA62-78W100%0.0
1-24NJIT (207.0)ASunA80-94W100%0.0
1-30Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH82-76W100%0.0
2-1Stetson (303.0)ASunH82-86L0%0.0
2-6Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA81-65L0%0.0
2-11Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunA101-91L0%0.0
2-13Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA94-87L0%0.0
2-18NJIT (207.0)ASunH107-71W100%0.0
2-20USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH81-78W100%0.0
2-25Jacksonville (289.0)ASunA80-81W100%0.0
3-1USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH92-69W100%0.0
3-3Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH56-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.4726.4767.9767.979.519.51
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.885.8853.8553.850.450.45
USC UpstateASun5.745.7428.0028.00-2.52-2.52
StetsonASun4.364.3625.0025.00-2.18-2.18
Kennesaw St.ASun4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
LipscombASun4.284.2831.0331.03-1.62-1.62
NJITASun4.224.2257.1457.140.600.60
JacksonvilleASun4.214.2146.1546.15-0.32-0.32
Saint LouisA101.851.8532.2632.26-0.66-0.66
FIUCUSA1.841.8437.9337.93-0.44-0.44
LouisvilleACC1.831.8373.3373.330.850.85
Florida A&MMEAC1.811.8123.0823.08-0.98-0.98
St. Francis NYNEC1.801.8046.6746.67-0.12-0.12
LSUSEC1.781.7856.2556.250.220.22
DaytonA101.771.7777.4277.420.970.97
HartfordAE1.751.7529.0329.03-0.73-0.73
VCUA101.741.7469.7069.700.690.69
ArkansasSEC1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB101.671.6745.4545.45-0.15-0.15
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6719.2319.23-1.03-1.03
Texas A&MSEC0.300.3076.4776.470.160.16
Tennessee St.OVC0.270.2764.2964.290.080.08
FloridaSEC0.250.2557.5857.580.040.04
NavyPat0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
La SalleA100.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
MassachusettsA100.190.1943.7543.75-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.170.1780.6580.650.100.10
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
AlbanyAE0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
George MasonA100.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
DuquesneA100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.130.1373.3373.330.060.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.1379.4179.410.070.07
DavidsonA100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1170.0070.000.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.08-0.08
ProvidenceBE0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
YaleIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
ToledoMAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
LafayettePat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00