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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:217.0
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:157
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19217.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Auburn (113.0)SECA83-66L0%0.0
11-16Miami FL (41.0)ACCH56-94L0%0.0
11-18LSU (193.0)SECA78-70L0%0.0
11-25North Dakota (144.0)BSkyN76-75W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACN77-54L0%0.0
11-27Wright St. (115.0)HorzA75-67L0%0.0
12-1Florida (10.0)SECH60-91L0%0.0
12-3Syracuse (84.0)ACCA77-71L0%0.0
12-10Arkansas (28.0)SECA91-76L0%0.0
12-12UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA98-84L0%0.0
12-18Connecticut (118.0)AmerA80-59L0%0.0
12-21FIU (338.0)CUSAA78-54L0%0.0
12-29Ball St. (169.0)MACH68-73L0%0.0
1-7Jacksonville (291.0)ASunA64-80W100%0.0
1-12USC Upstate (229.0)ASunA65-73W100%0.0
1-14NJIT (290.0)ASunA84-78L0%0.0
1-19Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunH86-84W100%0.0
1-21Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH90-84W100%0.0
1-25Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH82-86L0%0.0
1-28Stetson (328.0)ASunA88-74L0%0.0
1-30Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA74-59L0%0.0
2-4Stetson (328.0)ASunH96-64W100%0.0
2-9NJIT (290.0)ASunH91-69W100%0.0
2-11USC Upstate (229.0)ASunH71-84L0%0.0
2-16Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA82-93W100%0.0
2-18Kennesaw St. (259.0)ASunA85-68L0%0.0
2-23Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH73-69W100%0.0
2-27Jacksonville (291.0)ASunH77-74W100%0.0
3-2Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA85-91W100%0.0
3-5Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA77-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.5826.5839.2339.23-5.72-5.72
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.975.9774.0774.072.882.88
LipscombASun5.865.8662.9662.961.521.52
JacksonvilleASun5.825.8252.0052.000.230.23
Kennesaw St.ASun4.344.3439.2939.29-0.93-0.93
StetsonASun4.304.3025.9325.93-2.07-2.07
NJITASun4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
USC UpstateASun4.274.2746.1546.15-0.33-0.33
FIUCUSA1.901.9014.2914.29-1.35-1.35
FloridaSEC1.881.8874.1974.190.910.91
AuburnSEC1.861.8654.8454.840.180.18
ArkansasSEC1.801.8072.7372.730.820.82
LSUSEC1.791.7930.0030.00-0.72-0.72
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
Miami FLACC1.741.7464.5264.520.510.51
SyracuseACC1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.731.7321.4321.43-0.99-0.99
Wright St.Horz1.731.7358.6258.620.300.30
North DakotaBSky1.721.7270.3770.370.700.70
ConnecticutAmer1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Ball St.MAC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
AlabamaSEC0.300.3057.5857.580.050.05
MissouriSEC0.260.2625.0025.00-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.200.2055.8855.880.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
BelmontOVC0.190.1977.7877.780.110.11
TennesseeSEC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1867.7467.740.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
HoustonAmer0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
KentuckySEC0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
MississippiSEC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1429.4129.41-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.143.333.33-0.14-0.14
ColgatePat0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
SeattleWAC0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
MercerSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.100.1077.1477.140.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0912.9012.90-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01