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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:243.4
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:137
Current Record:6-13
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-2
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:49



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13150.00.02%
14-14164.30.24%
13-15185.91.99%
12-16205.28.25%
11-17223.220.14%
10-18240.728.76%
9-19258.225.14%
8-20275.511.74%
7-21292.63.42%
6-22307.60.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Michigan St. (21.2)B10A98-66L0%0.0
11-11Michigan (38.7)B10A86-66L0%0.0
11-13VCU (128.6)A10A95-85L0%0.0
11-16Florida (25.9)SECA108-68L0%0.0
11-18Mount St. Mary's (257.2)NECN84-81L0%0.0
11-19Wofford (119.5)SCA86-83L0%0.0
11-25Miami FL (28.3)ACCA86-65L0%0.0
11-29Eastern Michigan (177.4)MACH84-81W100%0.0
12-11Florida A&M (340.4)MEACA89-101W100%0.0
12-13FIU (287.3)CUSAH87-85W100%0.0
12-16Missouri (44.8)SECA85-51L0%0.0
12-19Ball St. (114.8)MACA79-65L0%0.0
12-22LSU (103.4)SECA104-52L0%0.0
12-30Mississippi St. (111.1)SECA109-81L0%0.0
1-6Jacksonville (300.2)ASunH86-90L0%0.0
1-11Lipscomb (132.8)ASunH102-96W100%0.0
1-13Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunH85-78W100%0.0
1-18NJIT (274.8)ASunA91-59L0%0.0
1-20USC Upstate (336.2)ASunA80-100W100%0.0
1-24Florida Gulf Coast (149.7)ASunH0-023%-8.2
1-27Stetson (305.8)ASunA0-043%-1.9
1-29Florida Gulf Coast (149.7)ASunA0-09%-14.6
2-3Stetson (305.8)ASunH0-066%4.5
2-8Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA0-045%-1.4
2-10Lipscomb (132.8)ASunA0-019%-9.9
2-15USC Upstate (336.2)ASunH0-074%7.3
2-17NJIT (274.8)ASunH0-055%1.4
2-22Jacksonville (300.2)ASunA0-050%-0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.3926.3536.6239.47-7.06-5.55
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.374.4057.8964.900.061.31
StetsonASun0.374.4033.3336.23-0.12-1.21
JacksonvilleASun2.994.4029.4130.50-1.23-1.71
Kennesaw St.ASun2.784.3717.6524.70-1.80-2.21
NJITASun2.784.3735.2940.22-0.82-0.85
USC UpstateASun2.784.3711.7618.38-2.12-2.76
LipscombASun2.784.3656.2560.910.350.95
MichiganB102.911.9473.6869.251.380.75
Mississippi St.SEC2.771.9370.5957.521.140.29
FIUCUSA2.631.9237.5036.88-0.66-0.50
LSUSEC2.701.9058.8251.550.480.06
MissouriSEC2.701.9064.7161.940.790.45
Ball St.MAC2.791.8858.8257.330.490.28
FloridaSEC2.781.8872.2270.601.230.77
Florida A&MMEAC2.861.8810.5320.28-2.25-1.11
Eastern MichiganMAC2.701.8550.0048.780.00-0.04
Michigan St.B102.701.8284.2182.611.851.18
VCUA102.701.8257.8958.350.430.30
Miami FLACC2.701.8175.0067.951.350.65
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.631.7938.8943.00-0.58-0.25
WoffordSC2.631.7966.6762.270.880.44
AlabamaSEC0.220.2868.4258.990.080.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.2650.0052.440.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.220.2466.6755.930.070.03
South CarolinaSEC0.230.2461.1151.900.050.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.2358.8249.760.03-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.220.2136.8435.55-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.230.2052.9452.620.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.290.1941.1843.41-0.05-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1972.2274.700.070.09
TennesseeSEC0.150.1972.2268.920.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.290.1868.4264.200.110.05
MississippiSEC0.140.1852.6345.860.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.220.1868.4263.980.080.05
KentuckySEC0.140.1873.6867.950.070.06
NavyPat0.150.1660.0055.160.030.02
SamfordSC0.230.1627.7832.66-0.10-0.06
MercerSC0.140.1644.4454.89-0.020.02
WagnerNEC0.220.1664.7164.540.060.05
PurdueB100.140.1690.4888.380.120.12
TexasB120.270.1663.1657.620.070.02
Central MichiganMAC0.230.1662.5058.700.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.220.1573.6869.610.100.06
Green BayHorz0.210.1525.0027.94-0.11-0.07
MinnesotaB100.150.1563.6457.640.040.02
RutgersB100.200.1557.8947.140.03-0.01
Notre DameACC0.280.1563.1661.050.070.03
BelmontOVC0.150.1471.4374.650.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1335.2940.48-0.04-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1357.8953.190.020.01
CampbellBSth0.070.1343.7545.34-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.170.1335.0026.14-0.05-0.06
DenverSum0.070.1333.3336.47-0.02-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.150.1372.2274.900.060.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1323.5332.62-0.08-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1340.0042.57-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.1337.5037.68-0.02-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.150.1347.0641.45-0.01-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.1341.1839.13-0.02-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1366.6767.690.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1352.9452.230.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.1333.3335.19-0.02-0.04
NebraskaB100.130.1266.6759.780.040.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1244.4450.31-0.020.00
IndianaB100.220.1257.8950.680.030.00
North CarolinaACC0.210.1280.0075.050.130.06
AuburnSEC0.070.1289.4777.030.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.290.1280.0078.860.170.07
DaytonA100.210.1247.3750.95-0.010.00
IllinoisB100.140.1247.3744.27-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.130.1270.0065.320.050.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1045.0047.05-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.1050.0045.900.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.160.1078.9571.810.090.04
UABCUSA0.150.1061.1164.130.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1050.0055.650.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.140.1068.4254.090.050.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1070.0068.220.060.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.1068.4257.770.030.01
UCFAmer0.070.1068.4260.880.030.02
West VirginiaB120.150.1084.2178.170.100.05
DuquesneA100.070.0970.0058.100.030.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0955.5656.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.240.0961.9065.160.060.03
Seton HallBE0.140.0975.0067.890.070.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0927.7831.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.230.0947.0648.44-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0944.4444.860.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.090.0947.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0978.9576.760.080.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.0983.3381.410.000.06
VMISC0.150.0925.0024.17-0.07-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.230.0940.0043.34-0.05-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0941.1838.46-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.150.0910.5327.31-0.12-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.230.0952.6343.120.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.150.0940.0030.87-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.210.0968.4260.530.080.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0929.4139.62-0.06-0.02
IowaB100.070.0947.6244.03-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0955.0050.370.000.00
Ohio St.B100.130.0980.9576.520.080.05
DukeACC0.210.0989.4785.190.170.06
George WashingtonA100.140.0945.0043.49-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0950.0046.260.00-0.01
FordhamA100.130.0931.5829.06-0.05-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0723.5328.70-0.04-0.03
BrownIvy0.070.0750.0045.130.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0766.6763.070.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0720.0028.72-0.04-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0750.0051.040.000.00
CreightonBE0.070.0775.0070.690.040.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0730.0030.99-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0731.5832.72-0.03-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0738.8944.14-0.02-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0752.6351.700.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0766.6765.360.020.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0757.8959.470.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0763.1666.880.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0773.6862.720.030.02
LafayettePat0.070.0722.2227.51-0.04-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0721.0521.990.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0711.1115.30-0.06-0.05
SeattleWAC0.070.0757.8954.500.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0736.8432.790.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0729.4130.67-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.070.0721.0524.71-0.04-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0770.0061.440.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.070.0768.4269.240.030.03
YaleIvy0.070.0741.1847.51-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0677.7879.160.000.04
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.500.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3745.870.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.640.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0630.0032.530.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0611.1117.690.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.0630.0031.690.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.40-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0668.7567.640.030.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0638.8935.350.00-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0678.9577.360.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.4261.270.030.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0652.3848.520.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0657.1460.400.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0630.0033.49-0.03-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0652.9459.250.000.01
BryantNEC0.070.069.5217.08-0.06-0.04
CaliforniaP120.150.0636.8431.12-0.04-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.0625.0028.25-0.07-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.069.5217.94-0.11-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0668.4255.060.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0626.3231.52-0.07-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0668.4257.780.000.01
BucknellPat0.140.0661.9068.010.030.02
CincinnatiAmer0.140.0689.4785.520.110.04
ClemsonACC0.150.0684.2173.210.100.03
La SalleA100.140.0640.0042.72-0.03-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0661.9055.770.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.0638.8946.68-0.03-0.00
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.4485.440.060.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.15-0.07-0.05
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.350.00-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.35-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0627.7834.50-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0327.7831.12-0.04-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0327.7838.13-0.04-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.080.0352.6346.880.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0337.5046.63-0.02-0.00
High PointBSth0.080.0340.0047.86-0.02-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0352.6355.290.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0368.4263.640.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0333.3334.11-0.03-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0368.4270.810.000.01
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
LehighPat0.070.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.67-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.05-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0312.5025.47-0.05-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.160.000.00
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0368.7563.960.030.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0361.1147.260.02-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.84-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.26-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0377.7869.360.000.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0383.3384.230.050.02
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.900.040.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.830.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.10-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.89-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.040.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0344.4441.150.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0333.3337.22-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0361.1156.090.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.440.000.01
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.035.8819.37-0.06-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0377.7871.650.040.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.930.030.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0329.4138.15-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7536.760.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.090.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0350.0051.650.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.910.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.700.000.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.280.030.01
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.01