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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:137.1
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:290
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:111
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8118.424.88%
19-9134.140.41%
18-10149.726.28%
17-11165.77.51%
16-12182.80.87%
15-13206.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Illinois (157.5)B10A81-93W100%0.0
11-16UT Rio Grande Valley (340.3)WACH106-84W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (17.8)ACCA89-61L0%0.0
11-24Saint Louis (206.0)A10A70-57L0%0.0
11-27Hartford (313.8)AEA60-81W100%0.0
11-28St. Francis NY (283.8)NECN65-78W100%0.0
12-2LSU (86.5)SECA119-108L0%0.0
12-5Dayton (13.0)A10A86-71L0%0.0
12-14FIU (233.7)CUSAH94-72W100%0.0
12-16Austin Peay (229.3)OVCH80-70W100%0.0
12-19Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH87-70W100%0.0
12-22Arkansas (103.1)SECA97-72L0%0.0
12-30VCU (37.4)A10A80-68L0%0.0
1-2Eastern Michigan (144.1)MACA77-82W100%0.0
1-6Stetson (303.6)ASunA79-97W100%0.0
1-9Jacksonville (243.0)ASunH83-68W100%0.0
1-14Lipscomb (271.7)ASunH95-83W100%0.0
1-16Kennesaw St. (292.4)ASunH93-78W100%0.0
1-21USC Upstate (326.3)ASunA62-78W100%0.0
1-24NJIT (186.2)ASunA80-94W100%0.0
1-30Florida Gulf Coast (217.2)ASunH82-76W100%0.0
2-1Stetson (303.6)ASunH82-86L0%0.0
2-6Florida Gulf Coast (217.2)ASunA81-65L0%0.0
2-11Kennesaw St. (292.4)ASunA0-077%8.1
2-13Lipscomb (271.7)ASunA0-066%4.5
2-18NJIT (186.2)ASunH0-074%7.0
2-20USC Upstate (326.3)ASunH0-095%17.7
2-25Jacksonville (243.0)ASunA0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.3226.3471.7273.4211.4312.34
Kennesaw St.ASun2.814.4522.7324.33-1.53-2.28
LipscombASun2.714.3926.0930.19-1.30-1.74
NJITASun2.714.3956.5258.390.350.74
JacksonvilleASun2.834.3852.3852.530.130.22
StetsonASun4.794.3821.0525.95-2.77-2.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.794.3747.3752.20-0.250.19
USC UpstateASun2.664.3523.8124.90-1.39-2.18
Saint LouisA102.401.9931.8230.09-0.87-0.79
LouisvilleACC2.411.9778.2675.281.361.00
FIUCUSA2.441.9642.8646.91-0.35-0.12
Florida A&MMEAC2.321.9526.3226.13-1.10-0.93
St. Francis NYNEC2.361.9439.1344.87-0.51-0.20
LSUSEC2.271.9160.8757.690.490.29
DaytonA102.271.9086.3681.531.651.20
VCUA102.221.8872.7373.191.010.87
HartfordAE2.311.8726.0927.67-1.11-0.84
ArkansasSEC2.271.8747.8351.44-0.100.05
Austin PeayOVC2.221.8541.6744.38-0.37-0.21
Eastern MichiganMAC2.221.8142.1145.09-0.35-0.18
IllinoisB102.171.7947.8345.58-0.09-0.16
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.171.7915.0016.07-1.52-1.21
Tennessee St.OVC0.340.2968.1865.160.120.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.2731.8236.14-0.08-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.290.2575.0075.330.140.13
FloridaSEC0.240.2266.6766.330.080.07
BelmontOVC0.180.2268.0066.660.070.07
NavyPat0.150.2064.0064.480.040.06
IPFWSum0.240.1970.8368.590.100.07
La SalleA100.250.1919.0520.33-0.15-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1886.9686.650.140.13
RichmondA100.200.1856.5255.730.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1860.8755.970.030.02
KentuckySEC0.180.1875.0072.630.090.08
UMKCWAC0.150.1628.5732.73-0.06-0.06
SamfordSC0.190.1641.6742.61-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.200.1640.9139.26-0.04-0.03
UABCUSA0.140.1682.6179.390.090.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1647.8350.01-0.010.00
IndianaB100.140.1579.1774.060.080.07
AlbanyAE0.140.1576.0076.320.070.08
DuquesneA100.240.1560.8756.360.050.02
St. BonaventureA100.140.1572.7370.400.060.06
George MasonA100.140.1533.3333.70-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.1429.1733.11-0.02-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1341.6739.46-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1340.0038.97-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.150.1331.8230.05-0.06-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1331.8232.69-0.04-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.160.1352.1751.940.010.01
West VirginiaB120.150.1379.1778.060.090.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1365.2260.580.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.1320.0019.76-0.06-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1313.6415.80-0.10-0.09
Miami OHMAC0.150.1234.7833.05-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.140.1269.5764.900.060.04
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.130.090.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.1222.7327.18-0.05-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1265.2264.370.040.03
St. Francis PANEC0.090.1250.0049.490.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.140.1281.8282.620.090.08
UMass LowellAE0.140.1234.7835.64-0.04-0.03
UMBCAE0.090.1224.0026.33-0.05-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.140.1272.0069.150.060.05
YaleIvy0.140.1273.6874.680.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1286.9680.370.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1258.3359.960.030.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.1258.3357.220.010.02
DavidsonA100.140.1261.9058.060.030.02
George WashingtonA100.140.1275.0071.920.070.05
Georgia TechACC0.140.1254.1751.980.010.00
MissouriSEC0.090.1233.3330.27-0.03-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1052.1754.140.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1050.0045.820.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.100.1063.6461.480.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1071.4368.750.070.04
HoustonAmer0.150.1070.8367.980.060.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.104.357.72-0.09-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1082.6181.130.100.06
South DakotaSum0.150.1041.6741.24-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1033.3334.95-0.05-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.1024.0024.17-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1060.0057.640.020.01
BuffaloMAC0.160.0956.5257.000.020.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0958.3358.370.020.02
MarquetteBE0.150.0964.0057.920.040.02
ElonCAA0.100.0952.1750.420.000.00
VermontAE0.100.0952.0054.870.000.01
MercerSC0.090.0969.5769.040.040.04
LafayettePat0.090.0920.8321.68-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.3920.66-0.06-0.05
St. John'sBE0.090.0925.0023.45-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.140.0980.0081.580.090.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0971.4369.430.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0920.8324.09-0.06-0.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0947.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0913.0413.56-0.07-0.07
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.0934.7837.06-0.04-0.02
FordhamA100.090.0952.3850.750.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0983.3381.320.030.06
DukeACC0.090.0975.0071.800.050.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0943.4843.76-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.140.0941.6739.91-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.090.0962.5056.960.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0725.0033.20-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0738.1037.70-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0714.2920.65-0.08-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0766.6767.710.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0765.2268.590.020.03
North DakotaBSky0.100.0747.3749.90-0.01-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0747.6245.00-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0773.9174.700.050.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0730.4332.35-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0726.0929.18-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0760.8757.160.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0747.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0754.5552.540.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0721.7424.20-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0725.0026.87-0.02-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0760.8762.080.000.02
UCFAmer0.100.0750.0044.680.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0727.2731.06-0.02-0.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0765.0063.440.010.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0773.0872.640.050.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.670.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0640.0039.76-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0682.6177.520.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0663.6462.150.030.02
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0656.0056.490.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.220.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.780.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0639.1341.03-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.650.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.040.0645.4549.69-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.63-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0672.2274.680.020.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0630.4331.21-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.310.050.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0650.0052.380.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.820.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0639.1341.11-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0645.4546.21-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0625.0026.40-0.02-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0650.0051.910.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0633.3333.13-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0657.1453.980.010.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.70-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0640.9143.25-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0663.6465.020.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.73-0.04-0.03
IowaB100.090.0682.6180.520.060.04
LibertyBSth0.090.0634.7836.51-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.090.0629.1731.18-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0639.1335.44-0.01-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.220.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.23-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.920.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.820.020.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.540.020.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0683.3378.470.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0435.0034.80-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0440.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.049.0912.25-0.04-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0459.0961.310.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0419.0525.90-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0443.4850.66-0.010.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0414.2924.86-0.04-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.11-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.28-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.72-0.02-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0336.8437.57-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.26-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0358.3358.480.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.990.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.89-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0352.0050.230.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.07-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0328.5727.00-0.02-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.72-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.74-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.080.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0341.6739.62-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.600.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.57-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0336.3636.20-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.860.040.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.930.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.190.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.54-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.22-0.04-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8368.000.020.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.780.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.400.030.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.58-0.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.580.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.960.030.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.280.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.310.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.530.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.560.000.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.300.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.30-0.02-0.01