North Florida

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	175.5
Current RPI:	163
Expected SOS:	177
Current SOS:	153
Current Record:	12-13
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.58%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	122
Expected OOC SOS:	82

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	132.0	1.73%
16-14	146.7	11.74%
15-15	165.0	32.46%
14-16	183.5	36.81%
13-17	201.1	15.96%
12-18	217.5	1.29%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Alabama (26.8)	SEC	A	64-44	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Savannah St. (210.3)	MEAC	H	62-57	W	100%	0.0
11-17	Florida (16.3)	SEC	A	91-55	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Miami FL (52.4)	ACC	A	75-62	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	85-50	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Wright St. (217.6)	Horz	H	69-52	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Jackson St. (313.5)	SWAC	H	69-60	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Bethune Cookman (264.7)	MEAC	H	61-56	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Jacksonville (281.4)	ASun	H	80-58	W	100%	0.0
12-11	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	A	79-68	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Auburn (149.8)	SEC	A	84-71	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Virginia Tech (93.0)	ACC	A	84-55	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Florida A&M (324.7)	MEAC	A	63-90	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Belmont (70.8)	ASun	H	53-83	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Lipscomb (209.0)	ASun	H	82-61	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Florida Gulf Coast (214.0)	ASun	A	81-88	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Stetson (263.4)	ASun	A	68-64	L	0%	0.0
1-14	South Carolina Upstate (156.6)	ASun	H	62-69	L	0%	0.0
1-16	East Tennessee St. (197.9)	ASun	H	63-64	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Mercer (96.4)	ASun	A	69-58	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	A	68-76	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Lipscomb (209.0)	ASun	A	59-71	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Belmont (70.8)	ASun	A	83-69	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Stetson (263.4)	ASun	H	99-96	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Florida Gulf Coast (214.0)	ASun	H	68-62	W	100%	0.0
2-11	East Tennessee St. (197.9)	ASun	A	0-0		31%	-5.5
2-13	South Carolina Upstate (156.6)	ASun	A	0-0		33%	-4.9
2-18	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	H	0-0		91%	14.4
2-20	Mercer (96.4)	ASun	H	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-24	Jacksonville (281.4)	ASun	A	0-0		54%	1.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Florida	ASun	26.43	26.37	50.49	50.88	0.26	0.46
Jacksonville	ASun	3.04	4.37	21.74	23.68	-1.72	-2.30
Stetson	ASun	4.77	4.36	28.57	28.00	-2.04	-1.92
Kennesaw St.	ASun	2.82	4.29	8.70	11.35	-2.33	-3.31
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.68	4.28	54.55	54.81	0.24	0.41
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.64	4.28	52.38	51.01	0.22	0.09
East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.68	4.28	47.62	49.53	-0.13	-0.04
Belmont	ASun	4.60	4.26	68.18	71.86	1.67	1.86
Mercer	ASun	2.78	4.26	70.83	71.43	1.16	1.82
Lipscomb	ASun	4.59	4.25	47.62	47.14	-0.22	-0.24
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.31	1.93	38.10	42.42	-0.55	-0.29
Florida	SEC	2.26	1.92	78.26	75.84	1.28	0.99
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.22	1.90	57.14	60.48	0.32	0.40
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.26	1.87	23.81	25.55	-1.19	-0.91
Auburn	SEC	2.18	1.86	52.17	46.16	0.09	-0.14
Alabama	SEC	2.13	1.83	68.18	69.13	0.77	0.70
Ohio St.	B10	2.17	1.81	86.96	84.92	1.61	1.26
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.09	1.78	54.55	53.73	0.19	0.13
Miami FL	ACC	2.09	1.75	65.00	62.20	0.63	0.43
Wright St.	Horz	2.13	1.75	43.48	41.86	-0.28	-0.28
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.12	1.75	19.05	24.18	-1.32	-0.90
Kansas St.	B12	2.09	1.72	72.73	67.32	0.95	0.60
Florida St.	ACC	0.26	0.28	72.73	71.57	0.12	0.12
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.22	0.23	14.29	16.80	-0.16	-0.15
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.27	0.23	60.87	59.85	0.06	0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.22	69.57	65.18	0.07	0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.22	0.20	39.13	42.16	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.25	0.19	40.91	39.60	-0.05	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.17	0.17	28.57	30.17	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.18	0.17	31.82	34.86	-0.07	-0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.18	0.17	42.11	45.89	-0.03	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.22	0.17	60.87	53.44	0.05	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.18	0.17	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.26	0.17	69.57	71.58	0.10	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.17	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.25	0.17	32.00	35.39	-0.09	-0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.17	0.17	63.64	56.68	0.05	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.13	0.17	91.67	87.92	0.10	0.13
Duke	ACC	0.22	0.16	82.61	79.93	0.14	0.10
Georgia	SEC	0.17	0.16	45.45	41.17	-0.02	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.15	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.22	0.15	55.00	60.35	0.02	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.14	0.14	47.83	45.51	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.22	0.14	75.00	75.73	0.11	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.14	19.05	24.60	-0.08	-0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.14	27.27	35.05	-0.06	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.13	0.14	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.07
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.14	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.13	0.14	78.26	72.28	0.07	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.17	0.14	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.13	0.12	40.00	40.17	-0.03	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.12	35.00	40.74	-0.04	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.12	38.10	40.84	-0.03	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.12	21.74	25.63	-0.05	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.12	19.05	19.39	-0.08	-0.07
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.11	34.78	38.43	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.11	69.57	70.42	0.03	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.17	0.11	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.11	90.91	83.90	0.11	0.08
Furman	SC	0.08	0.11	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.11	70.83	66.50	0.05	0.04
Samford	SC	0.08	0.11	33.33	35.20	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.11	90.91	87.78	0.11	0.09
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.11	4.35	9.74	-0.08	-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.13	0.11	17.39	20.75	-0.09	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.11	30.43	26.42	-0.04	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.11	69.57	61.84	0.05	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.11	59.09	59.78	0.03	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.17	0.11	83.33	84.76	0.11	0.08
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.11	30.00	34.18	-0.07	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.11	96.00	93.53	0.12	0.10
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.11	69.57	65.88	0.05	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.09	71.43	66.55	0.06	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.09	38.10	37.80	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.09	34.78	37.18	-0.01	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.09	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.09	34.78	38.74	-0.04	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.09	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	26.81	-0.06	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	20.83	25.85	-0.05	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.08	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.08	86.96	83.30	0.07	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.08	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.13	0.08	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.08	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.13	0.08	62.50	60.78	0.03	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.08	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.08	18.18	19.91	-0.08	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	81.82	77.18	0.05	0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.08	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.08	78.26	78.42	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.08	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.12	0.08	65.22	63.55	0.04	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.05	0.03
Maine	AE	0.09	0.06	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.09	0.06	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	38.89	41.49	-0.02	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	33.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	21.05	24.33	-0.05	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	14.29	14.31	-0.03	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.04	0.06	80.00	76.67	0.02	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	100.00	94.58	0.09	0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.04	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.06	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.64	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.06	22.22	27.56	-0.02	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.04	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.01	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.04	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.06	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.04	0.06	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.06	82.61	81.41	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.04	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.09	0.06	71.43	73.45	0.04	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.04	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.04	0.06	9.52	13.17	-0.03	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.04	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.04	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.06	73.91	75.47	0.02	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.06	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Texas	B12	0.04	0.06	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.06	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.06	4.00	5.27	-0.08	-0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.04	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.04	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.04	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.05	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.05	77.27	73.50	0.00	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.05	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.04	0.05	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.05	95.83	92.00	0.08	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.27	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.04	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.04	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.04	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.04	0.03	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.04	0.03	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.19	-0.00	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.04	0.03	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.04	0.03	80.00	78.08	0.03	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.04	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.11	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.04	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.04	0.03	28.00	28.87	-0.02	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.04	0.03	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.04	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.04	0.03	40.00	39.70	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.04	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.04	0.03	45.00	44.18	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.04	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01