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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:270.2
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:28
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11126.30.03%
15-12146.60.10%
14-13167.00.45%
13-14184.61.48%
12-15205.24.67%
11-16226.69.52%
10-17246.315.23%
9-18265.519.82%
8-19283.219.39%
7-20299.214.88%
6-21312.28.68%
5-22323.64.18%
4-23331.81.24%
3-24336.40.26%
2-25342.50.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Auburn (96.0)SECA83-66L0%0.0
11-16Miami FL (45.8)ACCH56-94L0%0.0
11-18LSU (94.2)SECA78-70L0%0.0
11-25North Dakota (231.9)BSkyN76-75W100%0.0
11-26Cal St. Bakersfield (140.8)WACN77-54L0%0.0
11-27Wright St. (152.2)HorzA75-67L0%0.0
12-1Florida (9.6)SECH60-91L0%0.0
12-3Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-01%-28.1
12-10Arkansas (54.3)SECA0-04%-21.4
12-12UT Rio Grande Valley (299.3)WACA0-053%0.9
12-18Connecticut (143.2)AmerA0-011%-14.5
12-21FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-033%-5.4
12-29Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-038%-3.7
1-7Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-026%-7.8
1-12USC Upstate (277.8)ASunA0-044%-1.7
1-14NJIT (192.6)ASunA0-025%-8.2
1-19Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunH0-068%5.6
1-21Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-059%2.7
1-25Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunH0-021%-9.7
1-28Stetson (322.2)ASunA0-053%0.9
1-30Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA0-09%-15.9
2-4Stetson (322.2)ASunH0-072%7.0
2-9NJIT (192.6)ASunH0-043%-2.0
2-11USC Upstate (277.8)ASunH0-065%4.5
2-16Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA0-039%-3.5
2-18Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunA0-048%-0.5
2-23Jacksonville (208.9)ASunH0-045%-1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun29.3626.3515.1533.91-20.46-8.48
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.454.5750.0070.240.001.85
StetsonASun0.004.5428.5727.55-0.00-2.04
JacksonvilleASun0.004.5457.1459.050.000.82
USC UpstateASun0.604.5433.3337.62-0.20-1.12
LipscombASun0.004.5114.2931.68-0.00-1.65
NJITASun0.004.5142.8649.12-0.00-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.5128.5729.40-0.00-1.86
AuburnSEC7.142.0780.0053.714.290.15
FloridaSEC7.652.0785.7174.505.471.01
FIUCUSA0.002.0616.6732.49-0.00-0.72
ArkansasSEC0.002.0083.3361.720.000.47
LSUSEC7.142.0066.6748.042.38-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC8.841.9940.0058.06-1.770.32
Wright St.Horz8.931.9266.6754.172.980.16
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.001.9225.0023.44-0.00-1.02
North DakotaBSky8.251.9250.0055.510.000.21
SyracuseACC0.001.9166.6769.180.000.73
ConnecticutAmer0.001.9133.3336.98-0.00-0.50
Miami FLACC7.591.9166.6764.562.530.56
Ball St.MAC0.001.8550.0051.990.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.000.3566.6756.020.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.2550.0045.920.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.21100.0080.780.000.13
UMKCWAC0.000.2171.4356.050.000.02
IowaB100.000.2042.8644.33-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2016.6731.91-0.00-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.200.0023.46-0.00-0.11
TennesseeSEC0.000.1925.0034.47-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1866.6766.100.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1866.6754.380.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1857.1448.860.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1750.0045.410.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.1783.3361.150.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.1620.0041.31-0.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1642.8637.60-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1620.0034.39-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.450.1640.0061.37-0.090.04
HoustonAmer0.510.1683.3376.370.340.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1571.4343.020.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.15100.0086.250.000.11
MississippiSEC0.000.1571.4346.010.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.1425.0040.37-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1414.2929.81-0.00-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1450.0056.260.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1471.4368.100.000.05
SeattleWAC0.000.1420.0042.63-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1460.0058.950.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1350.0042.710.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0033.54-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0024.32-0.00-0.07
The CitadelSC0.000.1340.0027.05-0.00-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1333.3333.15-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1320.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1383.3370.360.000.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1314.2928.66-0.00-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1366.6751.090.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1350.0047.560.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1385.7180.960.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1375.0047.510.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1366.6732.240.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.1371.4363.570.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.600.1342.8646.78-0.09-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.130.0027.77-0.00-0.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.1350.0051.820.000.00
Georgia St.SB1.110.1360.0067.410.220.04
MercerSC0.450.1350.0053.050.000.01
DukeACC0.000.1287.5078.680.000.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1285.7162.410.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1250.0027.250.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1114.2928.15-0.00-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.000.100.0023.26-0.00-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0061.810.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.1042.8640.94-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1040.0067.95-0.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.1057.1469.300.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1062.5056.500.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1057.1464.940.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1014.2934.56-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1085.7159.740.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1040.0041.65-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1066.6770.930.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1085.7165.670.000.03
PurdueB100.600.1071.4374.450.260.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.430.000.05
UABCUSA0.000.0957.1461.940.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.510.0942.8650.36-0.070.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0971.4350.570.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.920.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0971.4352.370.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0985.7175.950.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0716.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0720.0054.94-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.600.070.0033.44-0.60-0.02
BaylorB120.000.07100.0074.460.000.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0783.3368.880.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0733.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0757.1447.320.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0760.0051.780.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0742.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0061.590.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0728.5750.51-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0750.0042.420.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0766.6769.810.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0720.0034.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0757.1443.680.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
LafayettePat0.000.0733.3331.87-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0783.3358.080.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0771.4366.530.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0049.010.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3336.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0750.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0760.0052.760.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0757.1440.590.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0740.0043.86-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0716.6733.82-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.07100.0069.770.000.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0725.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0780.0055.340.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0650.0052.140.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.510.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.510.0666.6765.810.170.02
Southern MissCUSA0.510.0633.3323.33-0.17-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.510.0650.0046.670.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.510.060.0033.58-0.51-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Texas TechB120.600.0685.7163.780.430.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0683.3351.920.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0466.6751.460.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0440.0050.88-0.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0414.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0450.0062.460.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0440.0057.49-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.600.0485.7170.990.430.01
BYUWCC0.000.0471.4368.660.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.040.0023.47-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.600.0460.0039.610.12-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0333.3353.85-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.510.0371.4368.970.220.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
PennIvy0.510.0340.0057.97-0.100.00
RutgersB100.510.0383.3344.770.34-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.510.0375.0059.100.260.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
VCUA100.510.0385.7178.150.360.02
Western CarolinaSC0.510.0316.6718.96-0.34-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.510.0371.4386.030.220.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.450.03100.0091.060.450.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
Seton HallBE0.450.0371.4354.520.190.00
St. BonaventureA100.450.0366.6770.740.150.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01