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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:158.9
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:179
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-684.00.01%
21-782.50.26%
20-894.21.33%
19-9108.15.20%
18-10123.512.31%
17-11138.918.42%
16-12155.422.55%
15-13173.519.19%
14-14192.811.59%
13-15212.66.03%
12-16234.12.19%
11-17252.30.73%
10-18271.30.16%
9-19285.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Carolina (43.8)SECA81-56L0%0.0
11-20Northwestern (163.9)B10A69-67L0%0.0
11-22Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCA66-49L0%0.0
11-25Liberty (322.3)BSthN77-57W100%0.0
11-26Elon (192.4)CAAN72-65W100%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACA56-63W100%0.0
12-6Purdue (60.3)B10A70-73W100%0.0
12-15Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCH80-82L0%0.0
12-17Florida St. (207.5)ACCA93-77L0%0.0
12-19Florida A&M (348.9)MEACA0-093%17.3
12-22Iowa (50.4)B10A0-010%-15.4
12-29Tennessee Tech (202.0)OVCA0-047%-0.8
12-31Austin Peay (300.3)OVCA0-064%4.1
1-2Alabama (83.6)SECA0-020%-10.1
1-10Jacksonville (336.7)ASunA0-083%11.4
1-14Florida Gulf Coast (90.8)ASunH0-049%-0.2
1-17Stetson (314.4)ASunA0-070%6.3
1-22Northern Kentucky (269.6)ASunA0-065%4.4
1-24Lipscomb (239.9)ASunA0-052%0.7
1-29Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunH0-092%16.4
1-31USC Upstate (179.5)ASunH0-065%4.5
2-6Jacksonville (336.7)ASunH0-096%20.1
2-12USC Upstate (179.5)ASunA0-036%-4.3
2-14Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunA0-074%7.7
2-19Lipscomb (239.9)ASunH0-079%9.4
2-21Northern Kentucky (269.6)ASunH0-087%13.2
2-25Florida Gulf Coast (90.8)ASunA0-022%-8.9
2-28Stetson (314.4)ASunH0-090%15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun27.7526.4155.8165.003.237.92
LipscombASun0.354.4825.0043.32-0.17-0.60
StetsonASun0.004.4810.0028.03-0.00-1.97
JacksonvilleASun0.284.4210.0019.21-0.22-2.72
Kennesaw St.ASun0.004.4036.3634.91-0.00-1.33
USC UpstateASun0.004.3960.0065.820.001.39
Northern KentuckyASun0.004.3925.0033.89-0.00-1.41
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.004.3675.0072.340.001.95
Tennessee TechOVC5.563.7042.8647.56-0.79-0.18
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.110.0012.55-0.00-1.58
NorthwesternB106.182.0055.5638.640.69-0.45
Austin PeayOVC0.001.9922.2230.78-0.00-0.76
Bethune CookmanMEAC5.561.9822.2235.30-3.09-0.58
AlabamaSEC0.351.9166.6753.770.120.14
IowaB100.001.9072.7361.660.000.44
ElonCAA5.831.8842.8649.58-0.83-0.02
Florida St.ACC5.561.8544.4435.43-0.62-0.54
South CarolinaSEC5.561.8557.1462.990.790.48
Northern IowaMVC5.831.8488.8977.304.541.01
PurdueB105.561.8480.0065.863.330.58
LibertyBSth5.561.7928.5736.11-2.38-0.50
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.350.0023.15-0.00-0.19
BelmontOVC0.000.3060.0062.970.000.08
FIUCUSA0.000.2944.4451.04-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.290.0016.85-0.00-0.19
ChattanoogaSC0.350.2644.4451.58-0.040.01
IllinoisB100.000.2472.7365.930.000.08
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2318.1846.16-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.2262.5066.700.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2255.5638.600.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.2250.0039.340.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.2190.9188.390.000.16
NebraskaB100.280.2166.6743.780.09-0.03
UCFAmer0.560.1955.5634.940.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.600.1944.4431.58-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.250.1975.0060.400.130.04
SamfordSC0.250.1933.3331.58-0.08-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.350.1650.0052.710.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1642.8655.64-0.000.02
IPFWSum0.250.1657.1456.900.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.1640.0050.32-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.970.1618.1835.99-0.62-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.000.1650.0046.150.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1560.0064.930.000.05
MarylandB100.000.1590.9167.660.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1477.7864.730.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1490.0084.680.000.10
IdahoBSky0.000.1337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1337.5064.43-0.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1322.2241.92-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1345.4544.07-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1333.3338.99-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1355.5661.790.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0023.71-0.00-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1344.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.690.1311.1144.04-0.54-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1337.5050.40-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1377.7878.540.000.07
Georgia TechACC0.280.1277.7851.350.150.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1266.6752.340.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1244.4470.08-0.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1244.4444.78-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.280.1266.6751.430.090.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.1281.8264.110.160.03
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0094.790.000.11
Virginia TechACC0.620.1255.5638.130.07-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.1266.6745.670.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.1266.6757.800.000.02
IndianaB100.000.1280.0057.630.000.02
MichiganB100.000.1255.5642.550.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1272.7373.150.000.05
RutgersB100.000.1260.0035.070.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.1027.2737.85-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.350.1025.0029.59-0.17-0.04
TexasB120.000.1090.0081.860.000.06
MaristMAAC0.000.1010.0018.61-0.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1036.3664.92-0.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1028.5757.26-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.350.1014.2945.19-0.25-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1077.7873.370.000.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1062.5054.970.000.01
XavierBE0.000.1080.0070.960.000.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.280.0942.8649.98-0.04-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0920.0026.57-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.280.0960.0055.630.060.01
DelawareCAA0.350.090.007.39-0.35-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.350.0950.0053.700.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0937.5034.19-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.970.0930.0028.50-0.39-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0970.0052.610.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0937.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0918.1828.02-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0920.0029.81-0.17-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3332.85-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0960.0049.500.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.960.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.510.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0028.26-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.280.0980.0072.550.170.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0955.5656.400.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.280.0966.6757.860.090.01
UMBCAE0.000.0910.0020.91-0.00-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0944.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0977.7865.390.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0988.8963.800.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0987.5085.320.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.0990.9153.850.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0766.6758.240.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0736.3638.88-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0044.59-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0757.1470.590.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0787.5077.020.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6777.030.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6762.620.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0078.480.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0766.6772.340.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0755.5659.990.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0742.8638.11-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.008.63-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0055.810.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0750.0053.850.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0760.0059.420.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0790.0066.940.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0728.5747.31-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0760.0057.600.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.890.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0618.1844.62-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.350.0687.5054.790.260.01
USCP120.350.0660.0036.120.07-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.280.0666.6777.690.090.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.690.0660.0064.610.140.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0640.0046.73-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.0636.3644.53-0.08-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.91-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.790.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4361.370.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.750.000.01
BrownIvy0.280.0640.0033.79-0.06-0.02
Arizona St.P120.280.0660.0053.820.060.00
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
DukeACC0.350.06100.0087.140.350.04
The CitadelSC0.280.0616.6730.84-0.19-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0019.99-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.520.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.630.000.02
Notre DameACC0.280.0690.9171.890.230.03
High PointBSth0.000.0362.5056.410.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.350.0322.2240.44-0.19-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.46-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.350.0360.0056.560.070.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.350.0390.0073.870.280.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0322.2230.85-0.15-0.01
CornellIvy0.350.0355.5648.240.04-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.350.0325.0038.92-0.17-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.280.0344.4456.51-0.030.00
Oklahoma St.B120.350.0388.8963.660.270.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.300.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.280.0350.0054.230.000.00
George MasonA100.280.0325.0025.93-0.14-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.280.0325.0032.77-0.14-0.01
RichmondA100.280.0355.5657.090.030.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.280.000.00
VCUA100.280.0370.0071.420.110.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0320.0041.46-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.250.0333.3345.50-0.08-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.250.0366.6767.300.080.01
Central MichiganMAC0.280.0385.7170.350.200.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.250.030.008.88-0.25-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.280.0320.0039.70-0.17-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.30-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.250.0320.0026.33-0.15-0.01
Kansas St.B120.250.0360.0037.220.05-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.280.0322.2237.50-0.15-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.280.0310.0018.01-0.22-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.430.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7353.260.130.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00