North Florida

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	230.0
Current RPI:	230
Expected SOS:	221
Current SOS:	221
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-7
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	144
Expected OOC SOS:	75

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	230.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	81-66	L	0%
11-14	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	54-47	L	0%
11-18	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	74-55	L	0%
11-21	Florida St. (85.0)	ACC	A	75-67	L	0%
11-27	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	65-71	W	100%
11-29	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	72-47	W	100%
12-1	Minnesota (34.0)	B10	A	87-59	L	0%
12-8	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	89-47	L	0%
12-17	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	83-55	L	0%
12-19	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	74-64	L	0%
12-22	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	N	70-80	W	100%
12-23	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	N	74-46	W	100%
12-31	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	84-70	W	100%
1-2	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	52-65	L	0%
1-5	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	74-90	W	100%
1-7	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	75-73	L	0%
1-10	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	47-66	L	0%
1-12	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	81-72	W	100%
1-18	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	68-77	L	0%
1-24	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	63-57	L	0%
1-26	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	89-75	L	0%
1-31	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	75-89	L	0%
2-2	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	64-59	W	100%
2-7	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	52-60	W	100%
2-9	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	64-44	L	0%
2-15	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	70-68	L	0%
2-21	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	H	77-64	W	100%
2-23	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	77-53	W	100%
2-28	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	72-45	L	0%
3-2	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	78-85	W	100%
3-6	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	N	73-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Florida	ASun	26.40	26.40	42.75	42.75	-3.83	-3.83
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	5.81	5.81	65.52	65.52	1.80	1.80
Mercer	ASun	4.35	4.35	63.33	63.33	1.16	1.16
Stetson	ASun	4.31	4.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.26	4.26	44.83	44.83	-0.44	-0.44
Lipscomb	ASun	4.20	4.20	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
East Tennessee St.	ASun	4.19	4.19	27.59	27.59	-1.88	-1.88
Jacksonville	ASun	4.18	4.18	35.71	35.71	-1.20	-1.20
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.18	4.18	10.71	10.71	-3.29	-3.29
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.12	4.12	36.00	36.00	-1.15	-1.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.80	1.80	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.77	1.77	21.43	21.43	-1.01	-1.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Memphis	CUSA	1.69	1.69	87.88	87.88	1.28	1.28
Pittsburgh	BE	1.69	1.69	74.19	74.19	0.82	0.82
Florida St.	ACC	1.69	1.69	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Colorado St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	73.33	73.33	0.78	0.78
Portland	WCC	1.67	1.67	27.59	27.59	-0.75	-0.75
Georgia Southern	SC	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Kansas St.	B12	1.66	1.66	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Minnesota	B10	1.66	1.66	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.27	0.27	14.29	14.29	-0.19	-0.19
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.24	0.24	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.23	0.23	81.82	81.82	0.15	0.15
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.21	0.21	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.18	0.18	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.18	0.18	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.16	0.16	67.86	67.86	0.06	0.06
Furman	SC	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00