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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Florida

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:189.0
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:215
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16189.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Florida (1.0)SECA77-69L0%0.0
11-11Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA70-72W100%0.0
11-13Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAA77-70L0%0.0
11-16Southern (171.0)SWACH78-87L0%0.0
11-18Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH66-63W100%0.0
11-26Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA61-65W100%0.0
11-29Ohio St. (24.0)B10A99-64L0%0.0
12-4Alabama (124.0)SECA76-48L0%0.0
12-7Indiana (102.0)B10A89-68L0%0.0
12-17Michigan St. (18.0)B10A78-48L0%0.0
12-21Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH68-64W100%0.0
12-30Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH85-60W100%0.0
1-1Mercer (81.0)ASunH89-83W100%0.0
1-4Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA73-78W100%0.0
1-6Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA70-64L0%0.0
1-9Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH75-79L0%0.0
1-11Stetson (333.0)ASunH74-60W100%0.0
1-17Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH86-82W100%0.0
1-23East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA99-93L0%0.0
1-25USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA71-60L0%0.0
1-30Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH67-66W100%0.0
2-1Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH58-60L0%0.0
2-6Stetson (333.0)ASunA52-54W100%0.0
2-8Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA73-46L0%0.0
2-14Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA74-79W100%0.0
2-20USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH70-81L0%0.0
2-22East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH85-88L0%0.0
2-27Mercer (81.0)ASunA76-79W100%0.0
3-1Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA77-87W100%0.0
3-4USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA80-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North FloridaASun26.4726.4750.7250.720.380.38
USC UpstateASun5.945.9450.0050.000.000.00
MercerASun4.464.4679.3179.312.622.62
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.434.4360.0060.000.890.89
East Tennessee St.ASun4.384.3850.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun4.354.3524.1424.14-2.25-2.25
JacksonvilleASun4.344.3438.4638.46-1.00-1.00
LipscombASun4.324.3248.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Kennesaw St.ASun4.294.2914.8114.81-3.02-3.02
Northern KentuckyASun4.274.2728.5728.57-1.83-1.83
Savannah St.MEAC3.413.4139.2939.29-0.73-0.73
FloridaSEC1.921.9293.9493.941.691.69
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.831.8317.2417.24-1.20-1.20
IndianaB101.801.8051.6151.610.060.06
Michigan St.B101.771.7775.7675.760.910.91
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.751.7570.0070.000.700.70
Arkansas Little RockSB1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
SouthernSWAC1.751.7553.5753.570.120.12
Ohio St.B101.741.7472.7372.730.790.79
AlabamaSEC1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Florida A&MMEAC0.330.3340.0040.00-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.2825.0025.00-0.14-0.14
FIUCUSA0.220.2246.4346.43-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
SamfordSC0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
KentuckySEC0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
PurdueB100.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
MichiganB100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1783.8783.870.110.11
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
MississippiSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1641.1841.18-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
BelmontOVC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00