Ball St.

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	233.0
Current RPI:	233
Expected SOS:	284
Current SOS:	284
Current Record:	14-15
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	8-9
Expected Conf Record:	8-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-6
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	243
Expected OOC SOS:	284

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	233.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	78-51	W	100%
11-16	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	66-61	W	100%
11-20	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	48-68	L	0%
11-25	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	101-53	L	0%
11-28	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	63-69	L	0%
12-1	Butler (22.0)	A10	A	67-53	L	0%
12-8	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	62-51	W	100%
12-15	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	73-80	W	100%
12-18	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	66-56	L	0%
12-23	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	68-77	L	0%
1-2	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	62-61	W	100%
1-9	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	58-60	W	100%
1-12	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	47-61	L	0%
1-16	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	71-64	L	0%
1-19	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	A	71-57	L	0%
1-23	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	H	63-66	L	0%
1-26	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	62-82	W	100%
1-30	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	78-85	L	0%
2-2	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	A	70-59	L	0%
2-6	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	H	42-69	L	0%
2-9	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	H	65-62	W	100%
2-13	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	52-56	W	100%
2-16	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	H	50-56	L	0%
2-23	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	82-85	W	100%
2-27	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	95-90	W	100%
3-2	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	A	72-86	W	100%
3-5	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	85-89	W	100%
3-9	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	H	53-51	W	100%
3-13	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	N	61-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Ball St.	MAC	26.23	26.23	46.98	46.98	-1.58	-1.58
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.28	4.28	41.38	41.38	-0.74	-0.74
Western Michigan	MAC	4.19	4.19	65.52	65.52	1.30	1.30
Central Michigan	MAC	4.16	4.16	32.14	32.14	-1.49	-1.49
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.16	4.16	14.81	14.81	-2.93	-2.93
Toledo	MAC	4.13	4.13	53.85	53.85	0.32	0.32
Buffalo	MAC	4.10	4.10	33.33	33.33	-1.37	-1.37
South Dakota	Sum	3.51	3.51	30.77	30.77	-1.35	-1.35
Ohio	MAC	2.46	2.46	71.88	71.88	1.08	1.08
Miami OH	MAC	2.46	2.46	27.59	27.59	-1.10	-1.10
Kent St.	MAC	2.46	2.46	58.06	58.06	0.40	0.40
Bowling Green	MAC	2.43	2.43	34.48	34.48	-0.75	-0.75
Akron	MAC	2.43	2.43	80.00	80.00	1.46	1.46
IUPUI	Sum	1.93	1.93	10.34	10.34	-1.53	-1.53
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.90	1.90	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Purdue	B10	1.83	1.83	45.16	45.16	-0.18	-0.18
Indiana	B10	1.80	1.80	81.25	81.25	1.13	1.13
Grambling	SWAC	1.78	1.78	0.00	0.00	-1.78	-1.78
Butler	A10	1.78	1.78	75.00	75.00	0.89	0.89
Indiana St.	MVC	1.75	1.75	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Wofford	SC	1.75	1.75	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.33	0.33	78.12	78.12	0.19	0.19
Western Illinois	Sum	0.33	0.33	71.43	71.43	0.14	0.14
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.32	0.32	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.32	0.32	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.29	0.29	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.26	0.26	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.26	0.26	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.24	0.24	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.24	0.24	22.58	22.58	-0.13	-0.13
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.23	0.23	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Iowa	B10	0.23	0.23	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.21	0.21	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Wright St.	Horz	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.14	7.14	7.14	-0.12	-0.12
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01