The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated Ball St. page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

Ball St.

Conference:		MAC
Expected RPI:		210.1
Current RPI:		192
Expected SOS:		235
Current SOS:		186
Current Record:		11-10
Expected Record:		14-14
Current Conf Record:		6-4
Expected Conf Record:		9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		7-5
Current OOC Record:		5-6
Expected OOC Record:		6-6
Expected OOC RPI:		236
Expected OOC SOS:		250

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-10	150.8	0.15%
17-11	166.8	2.19%
16-12	183.6	14.28%
15-13	200.4	31.49%
14-14	218.1	32.45%
13-15	234.6	15.90%
12-16	248.1	3.33%
11-17	261.1	0.20%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Valparaiso (167.6)	Horz	H	88-78	W	100%	0.0
11-21	SIU Edwardsville (329.0)	OVC	H	57-47	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Temple (24.9)	A10	A	46-66	L	0%	0.0
11-28	UC Davis (285.3)	BW	H	58-60	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Butler (17.9)	Horz	H	38-59	L	0%	0.0
12-9	Indiana St. (91.9)	MVC	A	68-63	W	100%	0.0
12-12	Tennessee Tech (202.4)	OVC	A	81-86	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Purdue (14.9)	B10	N	49-69	L	0%	0.0
12-21	North Carolina Central (345.5)	ind	H	59-45	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Maryland Eastern Shore (313.8)	MEAC	H	56-47	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Dayton (32.1)	A10	A	35-59	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Northern Illinois (250.0)	MAC	H	48-62	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Central Michigan (186.3)	MAC	A	38-53	L	0%	0.0
1-17	Toledo (323.0)	MAC	H	71-43	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Western Michigan (121.6)	MAC	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Eastern Michigan (213.6)	MAC	A	53-57	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Miami OH (135.6)	MAC	H	65-59	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Buffalo (134.2)	MAC	A	75-69	W	100%	0.0
1-31	Ohio (147.7)	MAC	A	67-66	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Bowling Green (197.1)	MAC	H	64-59	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Akron (113.3)	MAC	H	70-75	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Kent St. (57.5)	MAC	A	0-0		9%	-14.3
2-13	Northern Illinois (250.0)	MAC	A	0-0		44%	-1.6
2-17	Central Michigan (186.3)	MAC	H	0-0		55%	1.4
2-20	Tennessee Martin (335.4)	OVC	H	0-0		91%	14.5
2-24	Eastern Michigan (213.6)	MAC	H	0-0		61%	3.0
2-27	Toledo (323.0)	MAC	A	0-0		69%	5.4
3-4	Western Michigan (121.6)	MAC	A	0-0		16%	-10.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Ball St..

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Ball St.	MAC	26.14	26.18	48.39	49.41	-0.84	-0.31
Toledo	MAC	2.93	4.32	9.09	9.71	-2.40	-3.48
Miami OH	MAC	2.93	2.46	45.45	49.32	-0.27	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.92	4.31	33.33	34.37	-0.97	-1.35
Akron	MAC	2.87	2.44	68.18	64.83	1.05	0.72
Western Michigan	MAC	2.87	4.28	57.14	57.70	0.41	0.66
Bowling Green	MAC	2.87	2.46	50.00	47.38	0.00	-0.13
Buffalo	MAC	2.87	2.43	57.89	54.00	0.45	0.19
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.87	4.28	45.00	45.04	-0.29	-0.42
Central Michigan	MAC	2.82	4.28	47.37	50.75	-0.15	0.06
Ohio	MAC	2.76	2.40	52.38	52.72	0.13	0.13
Purdue	B10	2.61	1.95	85.71	81.17	1.86	1.21
Temple	A10	2.60	2.00	78.26	76.82	1.47	1.07
Valparaiso	Horz	2.59	2.00	42.86	44.98	-0.37	-0.20
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.49	1.95	28.57	30.41	-1.07	-0.76
Butler	Horz	2.44	1.85	82.61	83.36	1.59	1.23
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.44	1.85	9.09	9.93	-1.99	-1.48
Dayton	A10	2.43	1.84	71.43	70.94	1.04	0.77
Indiana St.	MVC	2.43	1.85	59.09	56.41	0.44	0.24
North Carolina Central	ind	2.38	1.82	5.00	10.17	-2.14	-1.45
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.38	1.85	42.86	41.96	-0.34	-0.30
UC Davis	BW	2.38	1.79	31.58	30.73	-0.88	-0.69
Kent St.	MAC	0.55	2.40	69.57	69.59	0.22	0.94
Wright St.	Horz	0.42	0.34	62.50	65.32	0.11	0.10
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.42	0.25	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.38	0.34	56.52	58.43	0.05	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.32	0.34	22.73	22.57	-0.18	-0.19
Xavier	A10	0.32	0.21	69.57	71.43	0.12	0.09
Evansville	MVC	0.31	0.22	22.73	22.60	-0.17	-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.27	0.32	27.27	25.82	-0.12	-0.15
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.27	0.22	60.87	57.71	0.06	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.22	0.12	22.73	23.47	-0.12	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.22	0.19	66.67	63.46	0.07	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.23	86.96	85.47	0.16	0.17
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.21	0.31	47.62	49.08	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.21	0.22	66.67	59.01	0.07	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.21	0.18	63.64	64.66	0.06	0.05
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.21	0.22	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.13	44.00	45.15	-0.02	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.17	0.19	20.00	20.57	-0.10	-0.11
Savannah St.	ind	0.17	0.10	30.00	31.19	-0.07	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.17	0.13	33.33	30.82	-0.06	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.19	66.67	64.62	0.05	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.16	0.16	65.22	64.71	0.05	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.09	9.52	8.87	-0.13	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.15	75.00	73.72	0.08	0.07
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.19	28.57	27.72	-0.07	-0.08
Austin Peay	OVC	0.16	0.19	52.17	55.04	0.01	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.19	68.18	67.88	0.06	0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.12	69.57	67.93	0.06	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.16	0.12	39.13	36.57	-0.03	-0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.16	0.16	42.86	45.31	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.16	0.10	52.17	56.48	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.12	91.30	88.21	0.13	0.09
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.12	86.36	81.50	0.11	0.07
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.13	44.00	43.20	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.06	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.06	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.07	35.00	30.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.09	39.13	43.30	-0.02	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.11	0.10	29.41	29.63	-0.05	-0.04
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.07	24.00	23.74	-0.06	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.07	42.86	44.37	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.10	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.06	59.09	52.85	0.02	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.06	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.09	68.00	67.20	0.04	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.09	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.07	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.10	66.67	69.41	0.04	0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.09	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.26	20.00	24.04	-0.06	-0.13
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.06	78.26	78.92	0.06	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	81.82	72.57	0.07	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.12	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.09	25.00	26.64	-0.05	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.06	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.10	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.15	79.17	76.61	0.06	0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.06	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.06	87.50	83.52	0.08	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	15.79	27.84	-0.07	-0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	1.88	5.00	8.57	-0.10	-1.56
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.18	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.06	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	95.65	91.32	0.09	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.09	34.78	32.23	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.06	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.09	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.01
South Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.07	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.16	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.30	0.06	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.36	0.05	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	5.15	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	57.14	59.04	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.10	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.98	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P10	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	68.18	68.10	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.01	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	45.83	48.87	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.09	65.22	62.18	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P10	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	33.33	36.45	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	27.27	31.08	-0.03	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	20.00	21.94	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.09	28.57	31.03	-0.02	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.03	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.12	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.03	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.15	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.70	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.06	21.05	24.96	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	11.11	20.93	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.11	-0.04	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.13	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.24	-0.02	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.03	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.13	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.74	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	66.09	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.54	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.80	0.02	0.03
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.09	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	51.13	0.01	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	73.91	70.80	0.03	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	66.67	64.02	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	70.59	72.98	0.02	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P10	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	40.00	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.38	-0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	77.27	70.93	0.03	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.09	77.27	77.12	0.03	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	76.19	71.14	0.03	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	86.36	82.20	0.04	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.06	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.07	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
Colorado	B12	0.05	0.03	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.06	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.65	88.67	0.05	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	82.61	75.26	0.03	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.04	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	30.43	30.27	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.88	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.09	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	31.82	31.64	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	75.00	71.23	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	82.61	78.56	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P10	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	45.45	45.95	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	73.91	69.49	0.00	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.03
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.00	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	58.33	58.93	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	47.37	52.55	-0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.51	0.00	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.00	0.01

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Ball St.	MAC	26.14	26.18	48.39	49.41	-0.84	-0.31
Toledo	MAC	2.93	4.32	9.09	9.71	-2.40	-3.48
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.92	4.31	33.33	34.37	-0.97	-1.35
Western Michigan	MAC	2.87	4.28	57.14	57.70	0.41	0.66
Central Michigan	MAC	2.82	4.28	47.37	50.75	-0.15	0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.87	4.28	45.00	45.04	-0.29	-0.42
Miami OH	MAC	2.93	2.46	45.45	49.32	-0.27	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	2.87	2.46	50.00	47.38	0.00	-0.13
Akron	MAC	2.87	2.44	68.18	64.83	1.05	0.72
Buffalo	MAC	2.87	2.43	57.89	54.00	0.45	0.19
Kent St.	MAC	0.55	2.40	69.57	69.59	0.22	0.94
Ohio	MAC	2.76	2.40	52.38	52.72	0.13	0.13
Temple	A10	2.60	2.00	78.26	76.82	1.47	1.07
Valparaiso	Horz	2.59	2.00	42.86	44.98	-0.37	-0.20
Purdue	B10	2.61	1.95	85.71	81.17	1.86	1.21
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.49	1.95	28.57	30.41	-1.07	-0.76
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	1.88	5.00	8.57	-0.10	-1.56
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.38	1.85	42.86	41.96	-0.34	-0.30
Butler	Horz	2.44	1.85	82.61	83.36	1.59	1.23
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.44	1.85	9.09	9.93	-1.99	-1.48
Indiana St.	MVC	2.43	1.85	59.09	56.41	0.44	0.24
Dayton	A10	2.43	1.84	71.43	70.94	1.04	0.77
North Carolina Central	ind	2.38	1.82	5.00	10.17	-2.14	-1.45
UC Davis	BW	2.38	1.79	31.58	30.73	-0.88	-0.69
Detroit	Horz	0.38	0.34	56.52	58.43	0.05	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.32	0.34	22.73	22.57	-0.18	-0.19
Wright St.	Horz	0.42	0.34	62.50	65.32	0.11	0.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.27	0.32	27.27	25.82	-0.12	-0.15
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.21	0.31	47.62	49.08	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.26	20.00	24.04	-0.06	-0.13
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.42	0.25	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.21	0.23	86.96	85.47	0.16	0.17
Evansville	MVC	0.31	0.22	22.73	22.60	-0.17	-0.12
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.21	0.22	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.21	0.22	66.67	59.01	0.07	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.27	0.22	60.87	57.71	0.06	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.32	0.21	69.57	71.43	0.12	0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.16	0.19	68.18	67.88	0.06	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.22	0.19	66.67	63.46	0.07	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.16	0.19	52.17	55.04	0.01	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.17	0.19	20.00	20.57	-0.10	-0.11
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.19	66.67	64.62	0.05	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.19	28.57	27.72	-0.07	-0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.18	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.21	0.18	63.64	64.66	0.06	0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.16	0.16	42.86	45.31	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.16	0.16	65.22	64.71	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.16	54.55	54.05	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.15	75.00	73.72	0.08	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.15	79.17	76.61	0.06	0.08
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.13	15.79	27.84	-0.07	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.13	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.13	44.00	45.15	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.17	0.13	33.33	30.82	-0.06	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.13	44.00	43.20	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.22	0.12	22.73	23.47	-0.12	-0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.12	52.17	50.21	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.16	0.12	91.30	88.21	0.13	0.09
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.12	69.57	67.93	0.06	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.12	61.90	56.12	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.16	0.12	86.36	81.50	0.11	0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.16	0.12	39.13	36.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.16	0.10	52.17	56.48	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	ind	0.17	0.10	30.00	31.19	-0.07	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.10	45.00	48.63	-0.01	-0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.10	43.48	39.98	-0.01	-0.02
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.11	0.10	29.41	29.63	-0.05	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.10	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.10	66.67	69.41	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.09	40.91	34.84	-0.02	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.09	39.13	43.30	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.09	28.57	31.03	-0.02	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.09	65.22	62.18	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.09	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.09	68.00	67.20	0.04	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.09	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.09	66.67	68.11	0.02	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.09	77.27	77.12	0.03	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.09	9.52	8.87	-0.13	-0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.09	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.09	60.87	55.54	0.02	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.09	25.00	26.64	-0.05	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.09	34.78	32.23	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.09	47.83	46.36	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.07	42.86	44.37	-0.02	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.07	23.81	29.40	-0.00	-0.03
South Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.07	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.07	35.00	30.59	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.07	24.00	23.74	-0.06	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.07	56.52	51.96	0.01	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.07	80.95	82.07	0.03	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.06	21.05	24.96	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.06	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.06	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	5.15	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.06	36.36	36.06	-0.03	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	38.45	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	42.86	45.66	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	68.18	68.10	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.98	0.02	0.03
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.06	45.83	48.87	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	36.36	40.08	-0.02	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	33.33	36.45	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.12	0.06	60.00	59.64	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	81.82	72.57	0.07	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.06	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.06	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.06	59.09	52.85	0.02	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	55.00	60.15	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.62	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.06	26.09	31.05	-0.03	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	70.59	72.98	0.02	0.03
Southern California	P10	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	79.17	77.30	0.06	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.06	95.65	91.32	0.09	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.06	65.22	67.00	0.03	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	11.11	20.93	-0.04	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.06	85.71	85.57	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.94	-0.03	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.04	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.80	0.02	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.06	87.50	83.52	0.08	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	73.91	70.80	0.03	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.06	66.67	64.02	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	82.61	78.56	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.06	78.26	78.92	0.06	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.06	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.06	54.55	55.07	0.00	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.06	77.27	73.36	0.05	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	31.82	31.64	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	75.00	71.23	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	83.33	81.25	0.03	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.06	40.00	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.06	90.91	82.52	0.08	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.03	27.27	31.08	-0.03	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	20.00	21.94	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	29.17	28.85	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	68.18	62.73	0.02	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.03	45.00	43.95	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	43.53	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.03	30.00	31.79	-0.02	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	57.14	59.04	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	73.91	69.49	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.03	56.52	59.89	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.03	42.86	41.51	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.00	0.03	73.91	70.60	0.00	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.00	0.03	58.33	58.93	0.00	0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	45.45	45.95	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.98	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.11	-0.04	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	69.99	0.02	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P10	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	30.43	29.01	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.03	19.05	20.55	-0.03	-0.02
Stanford	P10	0.06	0.03	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.38	-0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	39.13	35.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.03	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	55.99	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	46.80	-0.02	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.70	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.88	0.02	0.01
Colorado	B12	0.05	0.03	42.86	40.56	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	47.62	50.81	-0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	62.50	57.74	0.01	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.13	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.24	-0.02	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	81.82	79.60	0.03	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.65	88.67	0.05	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.73	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.74	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	82.61	75.26	0.03	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	66.09	0.02	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.54	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.00	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.84	-0.03	-0.01
Nebraska	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.01	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	26.51	-0.03	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	51.13	0.01	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	12.50	15.31	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.94	56.30	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	30.43	30.27	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	81.82	75.66	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.02	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	47.37	52.55	-0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	77.27	70.93	0.03	0.01
UCLA	P10	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.79	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	76.19	71.14	0.03	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	86.36	82.20	0.04	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.51	0.00	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	66.67	67.94	0.00	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	16.67	19.94	-0.03	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	49.24	0.00	-0.00

BY CURRENT HELP INDEX: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
Purdue	B10	2.61	1.95	85.71	81.17	1.86	1.21
Butler	Horz	2.44	1.85	82.61	83.36	1.59	1.23
Temple	A10	2.60	2.00	78.26	76.82	1.47	1.07
Akron	MAC	2.87	2.44	68.18	64.83	1.05	0.72
Dayton	A10	2.43	1.84	71.43	70.94	1.04	0.77
Buffalo	MAC	2.87	2.43	57.89	54.00	0.45	0.19
Indiana St.	MVC	2.43	1.85	59.09	56.41	0.44	0.24