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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:169.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12169.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Louis (238.0)A10A64-85W100%0.0
11-15Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH74-80L0%0.0
11-18Alabama (78.0)SECA77-59L0%0.0
11-21Coppin St. (336.0)MEACN77-79W100%0.0
11-23Southern Utah (341.0)BSkyN83-94W100%0.0
11-27Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA79-73L0%0.0
12-3IUPUI (218.0)SumH62-73L0%0.0
12-6Bradley (220.0)MVCH80-63W100%0.0
12-10Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH91-86W100%0.0
12-19Longwood (343.0)BSthH61-45W100%0.0
12-22Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH73-48W100%0.0
12-29North Florida (217.0)ASunA68-73W100%0.0
1-3Kent St. (142.0)MACA100-90L0%0.0
1-7Bowling Green (225.0)MACH71-76L0%0.0
1-10Miami OH (302.0)MACH85-74W100%0.0
1-14Buffalo (146.0)MACA77-92W100%0.0
1-17Central Michigan (216.0)MACH98-83W100%0.0
1-21Bowling Green (225.0)MACA79-74L0%0.0
1-24Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA80-88W100%0.0
1-28Western Michigan (173.0)MACH84-78W100%0.0
1-31Toledo (155.0)MACH81-80W100%0.0
2-3Buffalo (146.0)MACH69-96L0%0.0
2-7Akron (58.0)MACA65-63L0%0.0
2-10Ohio (117.0)MACH77-79L0%0.0
2-14Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA72-81W100%0.0
2-18Central Michigan (216.0)MACA100-109W100%0.0
2-21Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH79-72W100%0.0
2-25Western Michigan (173.0)MACA80-55L0%0.0
2-28Toledo (155.0)MACA74-82W100%0.0
3-3Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH87-82W100%0.0
3-9Western Michigan (173.0)MACN66-63W100%0.0
3-10Akron (58.0)MACN74-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3326.3361.8461.846.246.24
Western MichiganMAC5.435.4350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC4.014.0144.4444.44-0.45-0.45
AkronMAC4.004.0074.1974.191.931.93
ToledoMAC3.973.9753.3353.330.260.26
Northern IllinoisMAC3.973.9744.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Central MichiganMAC3.923.9250.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC3.863.8650.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC3.863.8634.4834.48-1.20-1.20
Kent St.MAC2.532.5360.6160.610.540.54
Miami OHMAC2.452.4531.0331.03-0.93-0.93
OhioMAC2.452.4562.0762.070.590.59
Indiana St.MVC1.741.7431.0331.03-0.66-0.66
IUPUISum1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Coppin St.MEAC1.691.6924.1424.14-0.87-0.87
ValparaisoHorz1.661.6673.3373.330.780.78
Southern UtahBSky1.641.6413.3313.33-1.20-1.20
BradleyMVC1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
AlabamaSEC1.611.6156.2556.250.200.20
Saint LouisA101.611.6137.5037.50-0.40-0.40
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.591.5935.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Alabama St.SWAC1.561.5624.1424.14-0.81-0.81
LongwoodBSth1.561.5614.8114.81-1.10-1.10
North FloridaASun1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Green BayHorz0.250.2555.1755.170.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
OaklandHorz0.200.2073.3373.330.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.186.906.90-0.15-0.15
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1584.3884.380.100.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1029.4129.41-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
MaineAE0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
DuquesneA100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02