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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:115.9
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:153
Current Record:11-7
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:3-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:83
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-747.80.06%
22-853.10.67%
21-962.82.96%
20-1074.58.88%
19-1189.117.09%
18-12106.723.41%
17-13126.422.19%
16-14146.415.00%
15-15166.67.04%
14-16186.22.05%
13-17201.70.53%
12-18218.50.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Dayton (111.7)A10A78-77L0%0.0
11-15Oklahoma (22.3)B12A108-69L0%0.0
11-17Stony Brook (197.0)AEH87-76W100%0.0
11-19Oregon (68.5)P12A95-71L0%0.0
11-22Bucknell (86.6)PatA87-83L0%0.0
11-25Indiana St. (140.4)MVCA85-93W100%0.0
12-2IUPUI (300.5)HorzH83-64W100%0.0
12-5Notre Dame (57.8)ACCA77-80W100%0.0
12-9Valparaiso (151.6)MVCH71-70W100%0.0
12-19North Florida (242.2)ASunH79-65W100%0.0
12-22Jackson St. (293.7)SWACH70-54W100%0.0
12-29Florida A&M (340.5)MEACH75-54W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Michigan (177.4)MACH72-62W100%0.0
1-6Buffalo (33.7)MACH63-83L0%0.0
1-9Ohio (173.2)MACA68-75W100%0.0
1-13Western Michigan (164.0)MACA73-58L0%0.0
1-16Central Michigan (146.9)MACH82-76W100%0.0
1-20Miami OH (185.3)MACA71-53L0%0.0
1-23Kent St. (186.0)MACA0-046%-1.1
1-27Akron (214.2)MACH0-072%6.5
1-30Toledo (71.5)MACA0-027%-6.9
2-3Eastern Michigan (177.4)MACA0-042%-2.2
2-6Bowling Green (189.0)MACH0-074%7.2
2-10Kent St. (186.0)MACH0-068%5.3
2-13Akron (214.2)MACA0-050%0.1
2-17Toledo (71.5)MACH0-048%-0.5
2-20Northern Illinois (225.4)MACH0-076%7.7
2-23Western Michigan (164.0)MACH0-063%3.8
2-27Central Michigan (146.9)MACA0-040%-2.8
3-2Northern Illinois (225.4)MACA0-055%1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3826.2664.2960.517.545.52
ToledoMAC0.404.1566.6768.030.131.50
Central MichiganMAC3.034.1466.6760.921.010.90
Eastern MichiganMAC3.024.1150.0048.430.00-0.13
Northern IllinoisMAC0.254.0941.1839.46-0.04-0.86
Western MichiganMAC2.944.0950.0051.060.000.09
Kent St.MAC0.414.0644.4445.05-0.05-0.40
AkronMAC0.324.0547.0645.38-0.02-0.37
OhioMAC3.112.5350.0050.160.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.342.4758.8250.590.060.03
Miami OHMAC2.942.4743.7539.29-0.37-0.53
BuffaloMAC2.942.4770.5974.081.211.19
Jackson St.SWAC2.861.7841.1844.91-0.51-0.18
ValparaisoMVC2.851.7850.0050.510.000.02
North FloridaASun2.941.7633.3336.45-0.98-0.48
DaytonA102.861.7544.4449.25-0.32-0.03
Indiana St.MVC2.931.7547.0647.73-0.17-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC2.851.7010.5320.27-2.25-1.01
BucknellPat2.851.7060.0066.940.570.57
OregonP122.851.6963.1662.600.750.43
OklahomaB122.851.6976.4766.931.510.57
Stony BrookAE2.841.6938.8946.80-0.63-0.11
IUPUIHorz2.781.6729.4130.97-1.14-0.63
Notre DameACC2.781.6766.6763.100.930.44
OaklandHorz0.270.3061.9065.150.060.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.2920.0023.33-0.10-0.15
Green BayHorz0.300.2025.0027.93-0.15-0.09
Wright St.Horz0.160.2068.4269.260.060.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1845.0047.06-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.160.1721.0525.99-0.09-0.08
SyracuseACC0.240.1768.4261.280.090.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1778.9574.200.090.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0010.260.00-0.14
BradleyMVC0.150.1565.0057.890.050.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.1552.6347.500.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1555.0052.480.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.150.140.003.06-0.15-0.13
MarshallCUSA0.080.1468.4263.610.030.04
PennIvy0.070.1464.7162.690.020.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1417.6534.76-0.05-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1420.0040.93-0.09-0.03
USCP120.150.1471.4368.300.060.05
IndianaB100.240.1260.0052.880.050.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.1242.1145.98-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.240.1236.8432.75-0.06-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.1221.0523.52-0.04-0.06
DrakeMVC0.150.1255.0048.980.02-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1247.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.220.1270.0068.290.090.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1244.4450.08-0.020.00
HowardMEAC0.160.1210.5326.29-0.13-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.1131.5836.23-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.160.1161.1151.910.040.00
MarylandB100.300.1166.6763.130.100.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.230.1125.0039.91-0.11-0.02
AlbanyAE0.070.1171.4370.250.030.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1157.8946.220.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.1147.3746.93-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.210.1160.0059.710.040.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1152.9455.030.010.01
KansasB120.000.1184.2179.760.000.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1150.0051.640.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.1157.8950.860.010.00
MichiganB100.160.0976.1970.800.080.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.8966.270.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0911.1118.00-0.06-0.06
NJITASun0.150.0938.8942.58-0.03-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.0957.8953.220.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0978.9576.770.090.05
Michigan St.B100.220.0985.7183.760.160.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0942.1144.98-0.04-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.0910.0016.77-0.13-0.06
Fort WayneSum0.080.0952.6351.680.000.00
HartfordAE0.150.0950.0045.930.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0958.8261.440.000.02
Washington St.P120.080.0847.3741.43-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.140.0877.7870.410.080.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.0872.2258.880.100.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.0815.7922.64-0.10-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.150.0831.5840.82-0.05-0.02
VermontAE0.140.0875.0077.870.070.05
St. BonaventureA100.230.0866.6768.750.080.03
DePaulBE0.220.0842.1134.30-0.04-0.03
FordhamA100.150.0831.5829.03-0.06-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.089.5217.86-0.18-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.220.0852.6343.040.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.140.0876.1972.570.070.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0863.1663.210.020.02
TexasB120.070.0865.0058.600.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0627.7831.08-0.04-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0640.0043.34-0.02-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0666.6773.220.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0635.0026.13-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.150.0690.4888.390.120.05
Western IllinoisSum0.160.0642.8635.22-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0623.5328.20-0.05-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0629.4133.20-0.04-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.76-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.90-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.380.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0650.0047.650.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0643.7549.11-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0637.5033.77-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3336.930.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0621.0524.76-0.05-0.03
MissouriSEC0.150.0666.6763.150.050.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0668.4270.820.060.02
AuburnSEC0.150.0689.4776.990.120.03
LSUSEC0.150.0661.1153.190.030.00
North TexasCUSA0.150.0644.4446.66-0.02-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0617.6527.34-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3339.890.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.93-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.570.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.670.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0636.8444.03-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.080.0664.7166.850.020.02
IowaB100.000.0647.6243.940.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.0640.0042.51-0.03-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0610.5314.83-0.06-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0650.0050.860.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.530.000.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0633.3340.10-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0652.9460.230.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0626.3231.480.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0655.0053.330.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0633.3333.870.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0655.5655.550.000.01
ClemsonACC0.150.0684.2173.180.110.03
HofstraCAA0.150.0657.8959.500.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0625.0028.02-0.08-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.0655.0050.370.020.00
ConnecticutAmer0.140.0652.6347.380.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.0020.28-0.05-0.03
MercerSC0.150.0644.4454.87-0.020.01
BaylorB120.000.0657.8953.280.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0665.0054.600.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3333.230.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.150.0647.3743.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0670.0058.090.030.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0675.0065.320.040.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.350.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.150.0668.4254.040.060.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0683.3381.450.050.03
TCUB120.150.0675.0067.830.080.02
Texas TechB120.080.0678.9571.750.040.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0680.0076.040.050.03
Wichita St.Amer0.150.0678.9577.380.090.03
XavierBE0.000.0685.7180.060.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.0568.4264.160.050.02
La SalleA100.070.0540.0042.69-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.140.0531.5834.35-0.05-0.02
AmericanPat0.070.0525.0026.03-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0580.0078.940.040.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0578.9576.160.040.03
ArmyPat0.070.0561.1160.440.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0550.0052.500.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0550.0053.280.000.00
ColgatePat0.070.0550.0051.030.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.050.008.42-0.07-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.070.0530.0032.58-0.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.070.0522.2227.46-0.04-0.02
LehighPat0.070.0538.8944.74-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0522.2228.66-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0533.3340.35-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0560.0055.160.000.01
UCLAP120.070.0565.0062.050.020.01
WashingtonP120.000.0570.0061.460.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0329.4133.93-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0380.9583.260.050.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0323.5328.71-0.04-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0335.2935.54-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.660.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0352.9452.670.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
BrownIvy0.070.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0347.0647.410.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0320.0032.24-0.04-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0330.0030.970.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.130.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0326.6729.12-0.04-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0352.6355.280.000.00
Ohio St.B100.080.0381.8276.870.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0370.0060.470.030.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.650.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.67-0.03-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0311.7612.800.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0373.6872.400.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.870.020.00
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.84-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.31-0.04-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0368.4259.020.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.170.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.550.060.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.34-0.04-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.240.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.660.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0345.0041.290.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.490.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0366.6765.550.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0370.0068.210.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.820.040.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0357.1453.040.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.037.1414.82-0.07-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0340.0030.880.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0327.7827.26-0.03-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0390.4888.970.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0372.2272.970.030.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.21-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.970.030.01
UABCUSA0.080.0361.1164.150.020.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0341.1839.66-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.7486.110.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0370.0060.400.000.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.560.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.980.040.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0336.8431.110.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.720.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.31-0.01-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.450.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.220.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0043.180.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0327.7841.03-0.03-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.960.030.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5657.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0347.0654.680.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0331.5836.430.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0328.5729.93-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0326.3230.450.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0355.0050.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.870.040.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
UtahP120.070.0363.1659.720.020.01