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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:275.5
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:99
Current Record:6-21
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:255
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-21271.249.62%
6-22279.850.38%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah (13.0)P12A90-72L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (255.1)SumA71-69L0%0.0
11-24Grambling St. (350.9)SWACH88-46W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Illinois (165.7)OVCA61-54L0%0.0
12-6Indiana St. (177.0)MVCH70-63W100%0.0
12-13Valparaiso (65.0)HorzA65-62L0%0.0
12-17James Madison (136.6)CAAH52-72L0%0.0
12-20San Diego St. (26.3)MWCA70-57L0%0.0
12-28Longwood (325.8)BSthH69-64W100%0.0
1-3Bethune Cookman (342.6)MEACH51-48W100%0.0
1-7Eastern Michigan (162.2)MACA59-60W100%0.0
1-10Central Michigan (71.2)MACH83-65W100%0.0
1-14Western Michigan (115.7)MACA95-93L0%0.0
1-17Bowling Green (91.6)MACA58-46L0%0.0
1-21Ohio (236.2)MACH73-82L0%0.0
1-24Kent St. (91.5)MACH52-63L0%0.0
1-27Akron (136.4)MACA59-47L0%0.0
1-31Miami OH (219.2)MACA79-73L0%0.0
2-4Buffalo (35.1)MACH78-82L0%0.0
2-7Toledo (74.4)MACH61-72L0%0.0
2-10Northern Illinois (192.3)MACA75-63L0%0.0
2-14Bowling Green (91.6)MACH65-79L0%0.0
2-18Kent St. (91.5)MACA58-53L0%0.0
2-21Central Michigan (71.2)MACA83-60L0%0.0
2-24Western Michigan (115.7)MACH48-53L0%0.0
2-28Toledo (74.4)MACA70-59L0%0.0
3-3Eastern Michigan (162.2)MACH60-67L0%0.0
3-6Northern Illinois (192.3)MACH0-050%-0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3026.3118.8019.26-16.41-16.18
Northern IllinoisMAC2.794.4542.3142.31-0.43-0.68
ToledoMAC4.484.4260.7160.450.960.93
Eastern MichiganMAC4.474.4154.1753.870.370.34
Western MichiganMAC4.444.3953.8553.480.340.30
Central MichiganMAC4.434.3778.2677.342.502.39
Kent St.MAC4.444.3162.9662.921.151.11
Bowling GreenMAC4.404.3168.0066.351.581.41
Miami OHMAC2.722.6939.2939.52-0.58-0.56
OhioMAC2.732.6629.6330.49-1.11-1.04
BuffaloMAC2.692.6667.8668.100.960.96
AkronMAC2.682.6557.1456.490.380.34
LongwoodBSth1.981.9127.5927.59-0.89-0.86
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.921.8851.8551.850.070.07
Indiana St.MVC1.921.8550.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA1.921.8560.0060.000.380.37
IUPUISum1.881.8231.0331.03-0.71-0.69
San Diego St.MWC1.891.8275.0075.780.940.94
UtahP121.881.8276.9278.071.011.02
ValparaisoHorz1.881.8181.4881.481.181.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.851.7929.6330.99-0.75-0.68
Grambling St.SWAC1.851.790.000.77-1.85-1.76
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.2927.5927.59-0.14-0.13
OaklandHorz0.270.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.260.2527.5927.59-0.12-0.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.2335.4836.32-0.07-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.2253.5753.570.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1928.0029.85-0.08-0.08
DetroitHorz0.200.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.140.1610.0010.00-0.11-0.13
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1638.4638.46-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.170.1650.0048.760.00-0.00
DaytonA100.170.1679.3178.690.100.09
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.170.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.160.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1562.0762.070.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1566.6766.670.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1320.0020.58-0.07-0.08
BradleyMVC0.140.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1350.0050.330.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1322.2222.87-0.08-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1337.5039.77-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.100.1353.5752.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1259.2659.260.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1246.1544.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1276.9277.700.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1218.5217.90-0.08-0.08
IPFWSum0.130.1250.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1257.1457.140.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1225.0024.21-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1267.8667.860.050.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.1264.5264.520.040.03
SouthernSWAC0.110.1044.4443.51-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.1060.8761.600.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1015.3814.76-0.08-0.07
Notre DameACC0.070.1083.3383.560.050.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.100.1085.7185.710.070.07
George WashingtonA100.100.0963.3363.730.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0921.4321.43-0.06-0.05
DePaulBE0.070.0940.0039.63-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0942.8642.76-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0946.1547.13-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0962.9662.960.030.02
IowaB100.070.0966.6767.370.020.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.100.0951.7252.550.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0989.6689.660.080.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.0948.2848.71-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.100.0989.6689.950.080.07
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0942.8645.04-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.090.000.13-0.10-0.09
USCP120.100.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.02
KansasB120.100.0980.0078.510.060.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.0923.0823.57-0.05-0.05
UNLVMWC0.100.0951.7253.220.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
OregonP120.100.0973.3373.330.040.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0734.4836.60-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0742.8645.17-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0758.6260.320.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0746.4347.82-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0766.6766.280.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0663.3363.340.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0675.0075.000.030.03
IdahoBSky0.030.0644.0044.89-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0627.5928.43-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.070.0680.0079.440.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0661.5458.930.020.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0664.2964.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0670.0070.120.030.02
ColoradoP120.070.0646.4346.74-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.063.574.55-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.0762.070.020.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.0090.000.050.05
PacificWCC0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0628.5728.70-0.01-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0661.2961.290.020.01
Washington St.P120.030.0642.8641.43-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0672.4172.410.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0657.1458.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0639.2940.13-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0657.1457.240.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0642.8642.02-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0675.0075.640.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.7681.940.040.04
DenverSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0646.4345.05-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0625.9325.08-0.02-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.8669.260.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.4370.300.030.02
YaleIvy0.060.0670.3768.760.030.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.3372.570.030.03
RichmondA100.060.0660.0061.150.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0638.4639.08-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0690.0088.620.050.04
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0653.5754.710.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0672.4172.060.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
TCUB120.040.0356.6756.090.010.00
CreightonBE0.030.0343.3342.97-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0327.5927.73-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0337.0437.15-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.89-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0370.0069.320.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0358.6255.600.010.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0342.8643.44-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.3362.470.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.730.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0358.6256.740.010.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0324.1423.68-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0344.8344.45-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0322.2222.12-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0325.9327.43-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.970.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.87-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0324.1423.74-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0344.4444.55-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0367.8668.280.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.900.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.030.0333.3331.64-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.3363.690.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0350.0050.800.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0049.040.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0360.0059.680.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0325.9327.35-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.24-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0330.7731.71-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0355.5655.060.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0360.7160.060.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.08-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0389.6688.010.030.02
XavierBE0.030.0360.0060.260.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0340.7440.36-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.350.030.03