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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:212.5
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:324
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-556.00.02%
24-676.00.02%
23-789.60.09%
22-8101.80.26%
21-9117.21.13%
20-10132.82.98%
19-11151.36.22%
18-12169.310.61%
17-13188.414.61%
16-14208.017.28%
15-15226.016.78%
14-16244.412.95%
13-17261.38.74%
12-18275.94.83%
11-19290.22.22%
10-20302.40.90%
9-21313.40.29%
8-22321.00.03%
7-23327.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Louis (278.6)A10A64-85W100%0.0
11-15Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH74-80L0%0.0
11-18Alabama (102.9)SECA77-59L0%0.0
11-21Coppin St. (342.9)MEACN77-79W100%0.0
11-23Southern Utah (331.3)BSkyN83-94W100%0.0
11-27Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA79-73L0%0.0
12-3IUPUI (194.4)SumH0-058%2.4
12-6Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-074%7.7
12-10Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH0-064%4.2
12-19Longwood (325.2)BSthH0-091%15.8
12-22Alabama St. (324.9)SWACH0-090%15.5
12-29North Florida (270.2)ASunA0-062%3.7
1-3Kent St. (205.9)MACA0-037%-4.0
1-7Bowling Green (217.3)MACH0-063%3.9
1-10Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-075%8.1
1-14Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-035%-4.7
1-17Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-056%1.9
1-21Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-043%-2.2
1-24Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-026%-7.7
1-28Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-064%4.3
1-31Toledo (153.9)MACH0-056%1.9
2-4Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-055%1.4
2-7Akron (74.5)MACA0-019%-10.6
2-11Ohio (94.7)MACH0-043%-2.3
2-14Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA0-040%-3.1
2-18Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-036%-4.3
2-21Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-045%-1.6
2-25Western Michigan (212.4)MACA0-044%-1.8
2-28Toledo (153.9)MACA0-036%-4.3
3-3Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-060%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC29.0326.2756.6751.093.870.57
Northern IllinoisMAC1.394.1442.8644.93-0.20-0.42
ToledoMAC0.004.1242.8650.11-0.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.004.1266.6756.530.000.54
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.1150.0055.150.000.42
Western MichiganMAC0.004.0916.6735.74-0.00-1.17
BuffaloMAC0.004.0540.0050.59-0.000.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.0333.3343.38-0.00-0.53
AkronMAC0.002.5083.3369.440.000.97
Miami OHMAC0.002.5050.0033.300.00-0.84
OhioMAC0.002.4780.0068.720.000.93
Kent St.MAC0.002.4750.0051.430.000.07
Indiana St.MVC8.331.8720.0044.91-5.00-0.19
IUPUISum0.001.8128.5747.92-0.00-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC8.931.780.0018.87-8.93-1.11
ValparaisoHorz10.381.7883.3373.556.920.84
Southern UtahBSky9.621.750.0024.09-9.62-0.91
BradleyMVC0.001.7250.0029.390.00-0.71
Saint LouisA109.861.7240.0027.64-1.97-0.77
AlabamaSEC9.621.7260.0054.501.920.16
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.7042.8647.15-0.00-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.6714.2935.44-0.00-0.49
LongwoodBSth0.001.6725.0025.25-0.00-0.83
North FloridaASun0.001.6714.2931.48-0.00-0.62
Green BayHorz0.000.2833.3348.71-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.230.0019.51-0.00-0.14
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2233.3340.39-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.2071.4355.750.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.2083.3378.430.000.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1714.2928.66-0.00-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1716.6730.27-0.00-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.170.0013.30-0.00-0.13
St. BonaventureA100.000.1766.6770.740.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1766.6754.420.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1457.1447.220.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1450.0066.170.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1483.3359.600.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1483.3377.170.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1475.0064.960.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1457.1442.940.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1450.0046.670.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1471.4386.030.000.10
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0017.30-0.00-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1442.8637.60-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1220.0048.38-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1233.3348.73-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.1285.7155.550.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0076.650.000.06
IdahoBSky0.000.1240.0050.88-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1242.8634.17-0.00-0.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1283.3355.200.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0050.290.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0024.25-0.00-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1128.5734.18-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1116.6737.09-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1140.0057.49-0.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.690.1150.0043.490.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1185.7173.010.000.05
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.140.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.480.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0928.5730.29-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3336.31-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.690.0925.0038.72-0.35-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0942.8650.32-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.26-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0933.3338.20-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0960.0070.500.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.090.0028.15-0.00-0.04
MaineAE0.000.0916.6725.61-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.0957.1442.660.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0971.4349.770.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0957.1447.320.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.460.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0914.2928.15-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0983.3370.360.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0920.0054.94-0.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0957.1440.590.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3333.15-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB2.050.0928.5739.44-0.88-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.04
NevadaMWC0.000.0975.0070.470.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0916.6727.03-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0842.8661.90-0.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0850.0052.140.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0840.0037.44-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC1.810.0871.4368.660.780.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
DaytonA100.690.0866.6772.440.230.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0640.0050.71-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0064.840.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0058.980.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0625.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0616.6732.62-0.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.520.0657.1440.550.07-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.250.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
OregonP120.600.0671.4366.730.260.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.600.0571.4370.330.260.02
DuquesneA100.000.0537.5034.65-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.0560.0051.780.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.520.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.520.0350.0056.260.000.00
Iowa St.B120.690.0371.4368.970.300.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.690.0316.6734.31-0.46-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0320.0042.63-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.690.0375.0059.100.350.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UNLVMWC0.830.0371.4349.590.36-0.00
UtahP120.520.0375.0061.040.260.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.690.0357.1455.810.100.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02