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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:228.5
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:277
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1077.00.02%
17-1197.70.13%
16-12115.90.64%
15-13131.81.37%
14-14150.93.78%
13-15171.68.06%
12-16194.313.70%
11-17216.718.59%
10-18238.519.95%
9-19257.916.76%
8-20277.29.82%
7-21292.64.92%
6-22305.41.66%
5-23315.40.50%
4-24324.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah (13.1)P12A90-72L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (291.5)SumA71-69L0%0.0
11-24Grambling St. (349.5)SWACH88-46W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCA61-54L0%0.0
12-6Indiana St. (249.9)MVCH70-63W100%0.0
12-13Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA65-62L0%0.0
12-17James Madison (122.0)CAAH52-72L0%0.0
12-20San Diego St. (35.0)MWCA0-08%-16.3
12-28Longwood (317.4)BSthH0-087%13.5
1-3Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACH0-088%13.9
1-7Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACA0-019%-10.4
1-10Central Michigan (92.9)MACH0-036%-4.1
1-14Western Michigan (125.5)MACA0-022%-9.1
1-17Bowling Green (92.5)MACA0-016%-11.8
1-21Ohio (199.6)MACH0-064%4.2
1-24Kent St. (118.1)MACH0-045%-1.5
1-27Akron (148.1)MACA0-022%-8.9
1-31Miami OH (274.9)MACA0-047%-0.8
2-4Buffalo (46.6)MACH0-034%-5.0
2-7Toledo (104.9)MACH0-040%-3.0
2-10Northern Illinois (269.3)MACA0-048%-0.5
2-14Bowling Green (92.5)MACH0-040%-3.0
2-18Kent St. (118.1)MACA0-019%-10.2
2-21Central Michigan (92.9)MACA0-014%-12.9
2-24Western Michigan (125.5)MACH0-049%-0.3
2-28Toledo (104.9)MACA0-016%-11.7
3-3Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACH0-044%-1.7
3-6Northern Illinois (269.3)MACH0-076%8.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC27.7726.3224.0034.41-14.44-8.21
Northern IllinoisMAC0.404.4650.0032.200.00-1.59
ToledoMAC0.004.4460.0058.550.000.76
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.4271.4363.010.001.15
Western MichiganMAC0.004.3962.5054.240.000.37
Central MichiganMAC0.004.3885.7169.960.001.75
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.3275.0067.220.001.49
Kent St.MAC0.004.3271.4360.880.000.94
Miami OHMAC0.002.7030.0027.66-0.00-1.21
BuffaloMAC0.002.6775.0069.210.001.03
OhioMAC0.002.6742.8638.18-0.00-0.63
AkronMAC0.002.6660.0055.830.000.31
LongwoodBSth0.361.9120.0027.07-0.21-0.88
Eastern IllinoisOVC7.141.8825.0036.65-3.57-0.50
Indiana St.MVC7.501.8537.5034.02-1.88-0.59
James MadisonCAA7.141.8566.6759.482.380.35
IUPUISum7.541.8211.1123.79-5.86-0.95
San Diego St.MWC0.401.8270.0072.180.160.81
UtahP127.141.8275.0078.753.571.04
ValparaisoHorz7.141.8177.7868.503.970.67
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.7920.0034.88-0.00-0.54
Grambling St.SWAC7.141.790.009.24-7.14-1.46
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2945.4544.07-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.2530.0031.57-0.00-0.09
DrakeMVC0.710.2520.0019.99-0.43-0.15
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.360.2320.0038.24-0.21-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2233.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1944.4448.88-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.360.1611.1121.08-0.28-0.10
NorthwesternB100.000.1660.0040.620.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.400.1637.5040.20-0.10-0.03
DaytonA100.000.1677.7870.120.000.06
San DiegoWCC0.000.1654.5557.300.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1660.0057.600.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.360.1577.7871.110.200.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1555.5656.400.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0023.71-0.00-0.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0031.74-0.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1310.0018.01-0.00-0.08
BradleyMVC0.000.1333.3332.09-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1344.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1362.5066.700.000.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0014.79-0.00-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.510.13100.0071.820.510.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1318.1821.30-0.00-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.400.1244.4470.08-0.040.05
UC RiversideBW0.400.1242.8643.10-0.06-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4359.920.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0023.15-0.00-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1260.0049.500.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0011.40-0.00-0.09
NortheasternCAA0.000.1266.6757.860.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.1257.1456.900.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1262.5054.970.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0028.26-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.400.100.0033.84-0.40-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.400.1033.3362.92-0.130.03
George WashingtonA100.510.1066.6766.340.170.03
Notre DameACC0.510.1090.9171.890.420.04
Murray St.OVC0.360.1055.5661.790.040.02
Austin PeayOVC0.400.1022.2230.99-0.22-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1022.2237.75-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.710.0942.8655.64-0.100.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0944.4447.53-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0940.0050.32-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0972.7362.590.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.510.0957.1461.670.070.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0940.0050.07-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.0933.3334.28-0.12-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.090.007.84-0.00-0.08
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.820.000.01
KansasB120.400.0988.8969.390.310.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.400.0937.5041.20-0.10-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.400.0987.5085.320.300.07
New MexicoMWC0.360.0970.0058.600.140.02
ArizonaP120.000.09100.0080.590.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.0925.0034.77-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.0960.0036.120.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0950.0053.700.000.01
RadfordBSth0.360.0950.0055.810.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0975.0050.750.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.95-0.00-0.03
OregonP120.000.0966.6758.060.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0966.6751.430.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0925.0037.13-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0937.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0039.44-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0718.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0711.1144.62-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0760.0062.970.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0755.5642.550.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0772.7373.150.000.03
UC DavisBW0.790.0785.7161.020.570.01
Oregon St.P120.510.0777.7855.460.280.01
PurdueB100.870.0672.7363.730.390.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.110.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.480.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5049.83-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1464.620.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0038.180.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.500.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.400.0677.7869.190.220.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.410.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.98-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.40-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.63-0.00-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.81-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.280.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.86-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.240.000.01
BYUWCC0.400.0666.6767.300.130.02
HowardMEAC0.360.0630.0043.91-0.14-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0610.0020.91-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.360.0625.0044.59-0.18-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.410.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0650.0056.340.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.680.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.050.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.02-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4445.59-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.80-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.360.0690.0084.680.290.04
RichmondA100.360.0655.5657.090.040.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.29-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.007.39-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.540.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.750.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.400.0372.7351.560.180.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0355.5638.600.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0318.1846.16-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.360.0371.4363.890.150.01
MissouriSEC0.360.0344.4431.58-0.04-0.01
PortlandWCC0.360.0366.6748.410.12-0.00
BrownIvy0.400.0340.0033.79-0.08-0.01
ButlerBE0.400.0380.0072.550.240.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0390.0066.690.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.85-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.400.0372.7365.930.180.01
IonaMAAC0.400.0366.6772.340.130.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.33-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.400.0355.5659.990.040.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5042.45-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0344.4456.51-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.400.0325.0032.77-0.20-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.91-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.400.0360.0033.870.08-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5634.940.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.87-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0310.0030.45-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5661.390.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.360.0362.5071.290.090.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0314.2930.74-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.430.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0316.6727.56-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5654.950.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0355.5650.970.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02
XavierBE0.360.0380.0070.960.210.01
ColgatePat0.360.0320.0043.08-0.21-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.360.0337.5038.60-0.09-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.360.0350.0058.360.000.00
VirginiaACC0.360.03100.0085.310.360.02