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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:179.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:226
Current SOS:226
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:345



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13179.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bradley (306.0)MVCA54-53L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH73-56W100%0.0
11-20Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA89-81L0%0.0
11-21Longwood (323.0)BSthN67-78W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACN72-60W100%0.0
11-28Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH69-66W100%0.0
12-1IUPUI (189.0)SumH61-58W100%0.0
12-5New Orleans (343.0)SlndH66-52W100%0.0
12-12Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH63-72L0%0.0
12-22Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA73-61L0%0.0
12-29Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH63-62W100%0.0
12-31Chicago St. (348.0)WACH73-48W100%0.0
1-6Toledo (182.0)MACH87-69W100%0.0
1-9Ohio (81.0)MACA79-73L0%0.0
1-12Western Michigan (202.0)MACA64-74W100%0.0
1-16Miami OH (195.0)MACH48-46W100%0.0
1-19Kent St. (124.0)MACH68-76L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA87-88W100%0.0
1-26Buffalo (90.0)MACA76-64L0%0.0
1-30Akron (34.0)MACH64-73L0%0.0
2-2Bowling Green (200.0)MACA64-72W100%0.0
2-6Western Michigan (202.0)MACH75-71W100%0.0
2-9Ohio (81.0)MACH69-72L0%0.0
2-13Central Michigan (156.0)MACA63-75W100%0.0
2-16Miami OH (195.0)MACA56-73W100%0.0
2-19Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH63-59W100%0.0
2-23Toledo (182.0)MACA77-67L0%0.0
2-27Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH115-79W100%0.0
3-1Central Michigan (156.0)MACH57-65L0%0.0
3-4Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA80-69L0%0.0
3-7Miami OH (195.0)MACH47-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3026.3055.3255.322.802.80
Miami OHMAC5.545.5437.9337.93-1.34-1.34
Northern IllinoisMAC4.104.1059.2659.260.760.76
ToledoMAC4.054.0551.7251.720.140.14
Eastern MichiganMAC4.014.0151.8551.850.150.15
Western MichiganMAC4.004.0039.2939.29-0.86-0.86
OhioMAC3.993.9962.0762.070.960.96
Central MichiganMAC3.963.9648.1548.15-0.15-0.15
BuffaloMAC2.552.5556.2556.250.320.32
Bowling GreenMAC2.542.5445.1645.16-0.25-0.25
AkronMAC2.532.5375.0075.001.271.27
Kent St.MAC2.422.4256.6756.670.320.32
South Carolina St.MEAC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
Indiana St.MVC1.751.7543.3343.33-0.23-0.23
IUPUISum1.711.7140.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Chicago St.WAC1.701.703.573.57-1.57-1.57
BradleyMVC1.691.6910.0010.00-1.36-1.36
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
ValparaisoHorz1.671.6782.7682.761.091.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.671.6740.7440.74-0.31-0.31
LongwoodBSth1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
New OrleansSlnd1.661.6626.9226.92-0.77-0.77
Alabama A&MSWAC1.611.6137.0437.04-0.42-0.42
PepperdineWCC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Green BayHorz0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
Wright St.Horz0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
IPFWSum0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
OaklandHorz0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
DetroitHorz0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1660.7160.710.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.160.1620.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1411.1111.11-0.11-0.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1424.2424.24-0.07-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1429.1729.17-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
BelmontOVC0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
South DakotaSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0882.1482.140.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
VermontAE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0620.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02