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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:248.8
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:286
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1095.40.05%
17-11111.80.20%
16-12128.50.70%
15-13150.41.72%
14-14169.83.75%
13-15193.07.43%
12-16213.412.91%
11-17234.316.36%
10-18253.417.34%
9-19272.415.18%
8-20289.011.53%
7-21303.87.53%
6-22316.13.61%
5-23325.91.25%
4-24335.40.37%
3-25342.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah (51.6)P12A90-72L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (280.1)SumA0-044%-1.7
11-24Grambling St. (341.3)SWACH0-088%13.9
12-3Eastern Illinois (285.2)OVCA0-041%-2.8
12-6Indiana St. (156.4)MVCH0-038%-3.8
12-13Valparaiso (178.6)HorzA0-020%-10.1
12-17James Madison (264.5)CAAH0-060%3.1
12-20San Diego St. (25.6)MWCA0-03%-22.3
12-28Longwood (336.4)BSthH0-086%13.2
1-3Bethune Cookman (294.8)MEACH0-067%5.4
1-7Eastern Michigan (173.1)MACA0-024%-8.4
1-10Central Michigan (225.2)MACH0-058%2.3
1-14Western Michigan (121.6)MACA0-018%-11.0
1-17Bowling Green (98.2)MACA0-015%-12.3
1-21Ohio (126.0)MACH0-038%-3.8
1-24Kent St. (126.6)MACH0-038%-3.8
1-27Akron (84.2)MACA0-012%-14.4
1-31Miami OH (238.8)MACA0-037%-3.8
2-4Buffalo (82.2)MACH0-033%-5.3
2-7Toledo (81.8)MACH0-030%-6.4
2-10Northern Illinois (209.2)MACA0-030%-6.3
2-14Bowling Green (98.2)MACH0-033%-5.1
2-18Kent St. (126.6)MACA0-018%-10.9
2-21Central Michigan (225.2)MACA0-034%-4.9
2-24Western Michigan (121.6)MACH0-037%-3.9
2-28Toledo (81.8)MACA0-013%-13.6
3-3Eastern Michigan (173.1)MACH0-046%-1.2
3-6Northern Illinois (209.2)MACH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC37.5026.360.0034.48-37.50-8.18
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.49100.0045.170.00-0.43
ToledoMAC0.004.4650.0062.150.001.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.45100.0049.320.00-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.004.41100.0055.050.000.45
Central MichiganMAC0.004.40100.0039.790.00-0.90
Kent St.MAC0.004.34100.0057.930.000.69
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.34100.0061.900.001.03
Miami OHMAC0.002.7250.0033.310.00-0.91
BuffaloMAC0.002.7066.6762.000.000.65
OhioMAC0.002.6950.0055.020.000.27
AkronMAC0.002.68100.0069.030.001.02
LongwoodBSth0.001.910.0017.78-0.00-1.23
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.880.0033.11-0.00-0.64
James MadisonCAA0.001.8566.6743.580.00-0.24
Indiana St.MVC0.001.8550.0051.810.000.07
IUPUISum0.001.8233.3327.89-0.00-0.80
UtahP1250.001.820.0062.14-50.000.44
San Diego St.MWC12.501.82100.0079.4212.501.07
ValparaisoHorz0.001.8150.0050.960.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.790.0047.65-0.00-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.790.0021.67-0.00-1.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.300.0036.60-0.00-0.08
OaklandHorz0.000.260.0034.44-0.00-0.08
DrakeMVC0.000.260.0029.13-0.00-0.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2350.0051.650.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.17100.0044.320.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.16100.0056.370.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1650.0053.110.000.01
DaytonA100.000.16100.0072.390.000.07
EvansvilleMVC0.000.16100.0063.340.000.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.150.0058.38-0.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.140.0033.78-0.00-0.05
BradleyMVC0.000.140.0025.25-0.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1333.3350.61-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0045.95-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1333.3334.62-0.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0038.55-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0053.31-0.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0016.22-0.00-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.130.0041.47-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1350.0040.830.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1350.0035.660.00-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0029.01-0.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0056.080.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0028.57-0.00-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.13100.0068.990.000.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.130.0069.58-0.000.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.130.0034.17-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1350.0060.330.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.12100.0063.800.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0026.57-0.00-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0024.25-0.00-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.120.0049.36-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1050.0071.690.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0049.85-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0046.51-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.1066.6749.560.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0062.68-0.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0062.600.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.100.0031.43-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.10100.0071.490.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0044.770.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1066.6761.240.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.10100.0070.180.000.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0036.86-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0033.87-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0063.68-0.000.03
IowaB100.000.0966.6773.790.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.09100.0057.080.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.320.000.06
USCP120.000.0933.3326.65-0.00-0.04
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0061.570.000.02
KansasB120.000.0950.0060.040.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0950.0043.990.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0028.940.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0033.91-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0950.0039.830.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3343.60-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.09100.0064.920.000.03
ElonCAA0.000.0950.0038.380.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0045.250.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3337.88-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.090.0038.06-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0066.43-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0733.3335.35-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.070.0039.66-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0030.220.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.38-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0038.86-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.520.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0750.0071.660.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0065.830.000.02
MichiganB100.000.07100.0067.240.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0066.390.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0044.490.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0061.020.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.680.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.270.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0039.730.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.210.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.060.0051.35-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.060.0022.72-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0051.540.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0067.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0046.460.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0055.290.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.57-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.510.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.580.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.060.0050.29-0.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.86-0.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0019.35-0.00-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0650.0061.050.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.29-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0032.76-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.410.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0052.100.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.060.0032.60-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.060.0054.91-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0032.81-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.64-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0057.950.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.880.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0045.27-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3347.64-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.850.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.060.000.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0650.0035.720.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3351.93-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0076.230.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0061.220.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0633.3357.17-0.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0042.76-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0046.350.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.970.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0027.60-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6753.710.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0049.930.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0054.380.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.06-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.48-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.98-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0051.350.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0057.160.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0060.930.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0350.0058.740.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.550.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0068.930.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0063.690.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.03100.0078.150.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.510.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0023.67-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0030.26-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.990.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.030.0051.39-0.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0048.49-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.10-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0024.28-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.03100.0059.450.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0031.63-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.81-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0045.740.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0060.93-0.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.890.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0039.05-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0070.050.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0038.23-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0058.500.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.86-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.280.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.81-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0029.100.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6755.190.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02