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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:284.0
Current RPI:284
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:106
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-3
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:238



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23284.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah (20.0)P12A90-72L0%0.0
11-22IUPUI (260.0)SumA71-69L0%0.0
11-24Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH88-46W100%0.0
12-3Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA61-54L0%0.0
12-6Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH70-63W100%0.0
12-13Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA65-62L0%0.0
12-17James Madison (148.0)CAAH52-72L0%0.0
12-20San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA70-57L0%0.0
12-28Longwood (316.0)BSthH69-64W100%0.0
1-3Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH51-48W100%0.0
1-7Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA59-60W100%0.0
1-10Central Michigan (70.0)MACH83-65W100%0.0
1-14Western Michigan (119.0)MACA95-93L0%0.0
1-17Bowling Green (109.0)MACA58-46L0%0.0
1-21Ohio (231.0)MACH73-82L0%0.0
1-24Kent St. (94.0)MACH52-63L0%0.0
1-27Akron (115.0)MACA59-47L0%0.0
1-31Miami OH (229.0)MACA79-73L0%0.0
2-4Buffalo (28.0)MACH78-82L0%0.0
2-7Toledo (79.0)MACH61-72L0%0.0
2-10Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA75-63L0%0.0
2-14Bowling Green (109.0)MACH65-79L0%0.0
2-18Kent St. (94.0)MACA58-53L0%0.0
2-21Central Michigan (70.0)MACA83-60L0%0.0
2-24Western Michigan (119.0)MACH48-53L0%0.0
2-28Toledo (79.0)MACA70-59L0%0.0
3-3Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH60-67L0%0.0
3-6Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH67-71L0%0.0
3-9Bowling Green (109.0)MACA88-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3326.3317.3217.32-17.21-17.21
Bowling GreenMAC5.905.9062.9662.961.531.53
Eastern MichiganMAC4.414.4157.1457.140.630.63
ToledoMAC4.374.3758.0658.060.700.70
Northern IllinoisMAC4.324.3240.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Central MichiganMAC4.284.2873.0873.081.981.98
Western MichiganMAC4.274.2755.1755.170.440.44
Kent St.MAC4.204.2062.0762.071.011.01
AkronMAC2.772.7757.5857.580.420.42
BuffaloMAC2.662.6670.9770.971.121.12
Miami OHMAC2.662.6636.6736.67-0.71-0.71
OhioMAC2.632.6331.0331.03-1.00-1.00
LongwoodBSth1.841.8429.0329.03-0.77-0.77
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
James MadisonCAA1.781.7858.0658.060.290.29
IUPUISum1.751.7530.0030.00-0.70-0.70
San Diego St.MWC1.751.7575.0075.000.880.88
ValparaisoHorz1.751.7582.7682.761.151.15
UtahP121.751.7573.3373.330.820.82
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.720.000.00-1.72-1.72
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
DrakeMVC0.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
OaklandHorz0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.2128.5728.57-0.09-0.09
DetroitHorz0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.170.1731.0331.03-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.150.1510.0010.00-0.12-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.0070.000.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.08-0.08
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1275.8675.860.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
UNLVMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
DePaulBE0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
George WashingtonA100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Green BayHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.1087.100.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USCP120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00