Ball St.

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	222.5
Current RPI:	235
Expected SOS:	326
Current SOS:	332
Current Record:	11-9
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.33%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-4
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	218
Expected OOC SOS:	340

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-9	170.8	1.19%
18-10	188.7	9.89%
17-11	206.4	25.82%
16-12	223.4	32.00%
15-13	241.3	21.40%
14-14	258.8	7.77%
13-15	273.5	1.72%
12-16	285.5	0.20%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Arizona (75.8)	P12	A	73-63	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Indiana St. (133.0)	MVC	A	57-50	L	0%	0.0
11-23	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	H	69-62	W	100%	0.0
11-29	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	64-53	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	A	48-71	W	100%	0.0
12-6	SIU Edwardsville (304.4)	OVC	A	55-76	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	58-55	W	100%	0.0
12-19	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	66-57	L	0%	0.0
12-23	Morehead St. (187.8)	OVC	A	62-54	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Chicago St. (335.8)	GWC	H	86-58	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	H	70-55	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	78-69	W	100%	0.0
1-10	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	A	68-70	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	48-51	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	A	52-73	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	A	65-75	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Akron (49.0)	MAC	H	58-70	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	59-55	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	A	73-57	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	H	53-59	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	H	0-0		52%	0.6
2-11	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	0-0		22%	-8.4
2-15	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	H	0-0		77%	7.9
2-18	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	H	0-0		73%	6.5
2-22	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	A	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-25	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	A	0-0		66%	4.4
2-29	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	H	0-0		79%	8.6
3-2	Northern Illinois (337.4)	MAC	H	0-0		97%	20.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Ball St.	MAC	26.27	26.24	57.61	58.23	4.00	4.32
Eastern Michigan	MAC	3.09	4.35	38.10	36.32	-0.74	-1.19
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.86	4.31	5.56	7.75	-2.54	-3.64
Western Michigan	MAC	2.86	4.29	42.86	44.00	-0.41	-0.51
Toledo	MAC	2.98	4.28	40.00	42.96	-0.60	-0.60
Central Michigan	MAC	2.85	4.25	30.00	35.94	-1.14	-1.20
IUPUI	Sum	5.11	3.66	33.33	34.42	-1.70	-1.14
Akron	MAC	2.92	2.44	66.67	66.80	0.97	0.82
Ohio	MAC	2.92	2.44	80.95	76.41	1.81	1.29
Bowling Green	MAC	0.48	2.44	47.62	48.86	-0.02	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.54	2.44	71.43	68.74	0.23	0.91
Miami OH	MAC	2.85	2.40	26.32	31.71	-1.35	-0.88
Buffalo	MAC	2.86	2.40	66.67	65.16	0.95	0.73
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.30	2.04	34.78	32.23	-0.09	-0.73
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.61	2.01	27.78	30.94	-1.16	-0.77
Morehead St.	OVC	2.62	1.95	42.86	45.03	-0.37	-0.19
Chicago St.	GWC	2.56	1.91	5.00	10.31	-2.30	-1.52
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.67	1.91	33.33	43.58	-0.89	-0.24
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.68	1.88	4.55	10.00	-2.44	-1.51
Indiana St.	MVC	2.50	1.88	54.55	52.59	0.23	0.10
Butler	Horz	2.50	1.82	52.17	52.56	0.11	0.09
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.56	1.82	20.00	23.20	-1.53	-0.97
Arizona	P12	2.50	1.79	65.22	67.51	0.76	0.63
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.29	0.31	30.00	30.06	-0.12	-0.12
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.30	0.29	33.33	34.47	-0.10	-0.09
Valparaiso	Horz	0.34	0.28	65.22	63.61	0.10	0.08
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.39	0.28	56.52	57.72	0.05	0.04
Temple	A10	0.24	0.25	77.27	75.06	0.13	0.12
Oakland	Sum	0.38	0.24	48.00	50.21	-0.02	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.24	0.22	62.50	62.06	0.06	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.29	0.22	56.52	53.10	0.04	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.22	73.91	75.49	0.08	0.11
Purdue	B10	0.23	0.21	65.22	60.58	0.07	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.24	0.20	34.78	38.42	-0.07	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.24	0.20	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.18	0.19	33.33	35.97	-0.06	-0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.27	0.19	35.00	35.31	-0.08	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.22	0.18	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.23	0.18	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.28	0.18	41.67	40.61	-0.05	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.17	0.18	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.18	61.90	63.52	0.03	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.17	0.18	81.82	80.43	0.11	0.11
Detroit	Horz	0.22	0.18	47.83	49.03	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.18	0.17	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.30	0.17	60.87	59.76	0.07	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.23	0.16	33.33	37.25	-0.08	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.16	87.50	85.41	0.09	0.11
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.16	82.61	80.42	0.11	0.09
South Dakota	Sum	0.17	0.16	26.32	28.83	-0.08	-0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.17	0.15	19.05	21.29	-0.11	-0.09
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.15	62.50	61.50	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.15	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.09
Louisville	BE	0.27	0.15	78.26	72.66	0.15	0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.16	0.15	35.00	39.38	-0.05	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.17	0.15	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.15	66.67	62.65	0.06	0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.23	0.13	100.00	94.55	0.23	0.12
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.13	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.22	0.12	34.78	35.20	-0.07	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.11	0.12	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.22	0.12	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.12	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.12	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.12	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.12	81.82	81.49	0.10	0.07
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.10	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.10	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.10	42.86	41.13	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.10	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.09	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.09	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.09	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.09	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.09	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.09	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.09	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.07	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.12	0.07	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.04	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.03	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.00	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.00	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.07	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.08	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.05	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.06	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.04	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.06	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.00	0.03	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.05	0.02
Providence	BE	0.06	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.03	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.05	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.00	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.00	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.00	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.06	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.03	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01