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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:309.0
Current RPI:309
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:106
Current Record:3-25
Expected Record:3-25
Current Conf Record:2-17
Expected Conf Record:2-17
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-5
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:147



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
3-25309.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA82-73L0%0.0
11-18Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH87-83W100%0.0
11-23Butler (150.0)BEH58-59L0%0.0
11-27Utah (80.0)P12A88-69L0%0.0
11-30Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA78-55L0%0.0
12-4Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH50-69L0%0.0
12-17Marquette (92.0)BEA91-53L0%0.0
12-21Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA66-58L0%0.0
12-30James Madison (233.0)CAAA73-68L0%0.0
1-8Akron (93.0)MACH68-72L0%0.0
1-11Kent St. (213.0)MACA86-74L0%0.0
1-15Ohio (87.0)MACA71-51L0%0.0
1-18Miami OH (161.0)MACH52-64L0%0.0
1-23Buffalo (106.0)MACH71-68W100%0.0
1-26Western Michigan (66.0)MACA62-53L0%0.0
1-29Akron (93.0)MACA73-46L0%0.0
2-1Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH65-67L0%0.0
2-5Buffalo (106.0)MACA69-48L0%0.0
2-8Toledo (38.0)MACH73-80L0%0.0
2-12Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH62-73L0%0.0
2-15Bowling Green (194.0)MACH64-66L0%0.0
2-19Central Michigan (294.0)MACA101-95L0%0.0
2-23Toledo (38.0)MACA85-74L0%0.0
2-26Western Michigan (66.0)MACH81-88L0%0.0
3-1Central Michigan (294.0)MACH74-71W100%0.0
3-4Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA72-58L0%0.0
3-8Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA70-56L0%0.0
3-10Ohio (87.0)MACA76-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.2726.277.507.50-22.33-22.33
Eastern MichiganMAC4.654.6553.3353.330.310.31
ToledoMAC4.524.5280.0080.002.712.71
Northern IllinoisMAC4.504.5041.3841.38-0.78-0.78
OhioMAC4.504.5064.5264.521.311.31
Western MichiganMAC4.494.4968.9768.971.701.70
AkronMAC4.474.4761.2961.291.011.01
Central MichiganMAC4.404.4025.9325.93-2.12-2.12
BuffaloMAC4.364.3665.3865.381.341.34
Miami OHMAC2.762.7641.3841.38-0.48-0.48
Kent St.MAC2.712.7146.6746.67-0.18-0.18
Bowling GreenMAC2.702.7033.3333.33-0.90-0.90
Cleveland St.Horz2.042.0462.0762.070.490.49
ValparaisoHorz1.931.9348.2848.28-0.07-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC1.901.9038.7138.71-0.43-0.43
James MadisonCAA1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
Indiana St.MVC1.871.8766.6766.670.620.62
MarquetteBE1.851.8551.6151.610.060.06
ButlerBE1.841.8441.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.791.7955.1755.170.180.18
UtahP121.791.7962.0762.070.430.43
DetroitHorz0.340.3436.6736.67-0.09-0.09
OaklandHorz0.290.2935.4835.48-0.08-0.08
EvansvilleMVC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.2161.7661.760.050.05
XavierBE0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.08-0.08
MassachusettsA100.200.2075.0075.000.100.10
Northern IowaMVC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.170.1777.7877.780.100.10
Seton HallBE0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
DrexelCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.14100.00100.000.140.14
Murray St.OVC0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
Arizona St.P120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
IUPUISum0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
St. John'sBE0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
VillanovaBE0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
WashingtonP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02