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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Ball St.

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:168.9
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:225
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:6-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:329



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9108.80.25%
20-10124.62.61%
19-11139.911.57%
18-12155.624.50%
17-13171.229.78%
16-14186.621.73%
15-15202.58.21%
14-16219.21.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Ball St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Bradley (307.7)MVCA54-53L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Illinois (264.7)OVCH73-56W100%0.0
11-20Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCA89-81L0%0.0
11-21Longwood (320.7)BSthN67-78W100%0.0
11-22South Carolina St. (209.0)MEACN72-60W100%0.0
11-28Valparaiso (36.2)HorzH69-66W100%0.0
12-1IUPUI (185.0)SumH61-58W100%0.0
12-5New Orleans (318.1)SlndH66-52W100%0.0
12-12Pepperdine (109.4)WCCH63-72L0%0.0
12-22Indiana St. (159.2)MVCA73-61L0%0.0
12-29Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACH63-62W100%0.0
12-31Chicago St. (344.4)WACH73-48W100%0.0
1-6Toledo (140.7)MACH87-69W100%0.0
1-9Ohio (96.0)MACA79-73L0%0.0
1-12Western Michigan (218.8)MACA64-74W100%0.0
1-16Miami OH (219.2)MACH48-46W100%0.0
1-19Kent St. (106.9)MACH68-76L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Michigan (146.4)MACA87-88W100%0.0
1-26Buffalo (91.4)MACA76-64L0%0.0
1-30Akron (32.0)MACH64-73L0%0.0
2-2Bowling Green (202.1)MACA64-72W100%0.0
2-6Western Michigan (218.8)MACH75-71W100%0.0
2-9Ohio (96.0)MACH69-72L0%0.0
2-13Central Michigan (142.9)MACA0-031%-5.2
2-16Miami OH (219.2)MACA0-055%1.5
2-20Northern Illinois (140.7)MACH0-059%2.5
2-23Toledo (140.7)MACA0-023%-8.0
2-27Eastern Michigan (146.4)MACH0-055%1.3
3-1Central Michigan (142.9)MACH0-055%1.4
3-4Northern Illinois (140.7)MACA0-035%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Ball St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Ball St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Ball St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Ball St.MAC26.3026.2857.4355.043.912.65
Northern IllinoisMAC0.684.1460.0058.030.140.66
ToledoMAC2.664.1263.6463.770.721.14
Western MichiganMAC4.794.0935.0035.10-1.44-1.22
Central MichiganMAC0.544.0947.6248.84-0.03-0.10
Eastern MichiganMAC2.564.0842.1145.06-0.40-0.40
Miami OHMAC2.704.0836.3633.79-0.74-1.32
OhioMAC4.694.0360.0058.620.940.69
AkronMAC2.662.5181.8280.491.701.53
Bowling GreenMAC2.722.5052.3847.400.13-0.13
Kent St.MAC2.722.4863.6459.240.740.46
BuffaloMAC2.622.4754.5555.580.240.28
Indiana St.MVC2.351.8147.8347.68-0.10-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC2.361.8154.5556.140.210.22
Chicago St.WAC2.221.764.558.00-2.02-1.48
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.321.7648.0047.58-0.09-0.09
BradleyMVC2.281.768.338.92-1.90-1.44
IUPUISum2.271.7540.0039.83-0.45-0.36
ValparaisoHorz2.271.7386.3685.991.651.24
LongwoodBSth2.261.7222.7325.51-1.23-0.84
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.261.7240.9142.63-0.41-0.25
New OrleansSlnd2.271.7227.7833.70-1.01-0.56
Alabama A&MSWAC2.171.6738.8944.59-0.48-0.18
PepperdineWCC2.171.6756.5259.450.280.32
Cleveland St.Horz0.340.2521.7422.75-0.19-0.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.270.2245.8343.78-0.02-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.2124.0024.16-0.10-0.11
OaklandHorz0.200.2065.3865.510.060.06
DetroitHorz0.200.2045.4543.87-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.140.2054.1753.810.010.02
Green BayHorz0.240.2056.5257.700.030.03
IPFWSum0.240.2070.8368.660.100.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.1850.0054.180.000.01
DrakeMVC0.230.1720.8323.28-0.13-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.240.1730.4332.26-0.09-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.220.1737.5037.41-0.06-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.190.1547.8350.89-0.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.200.1513.0415.26-0.14-0.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1558.3358.580.020.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1545.4546.08-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1514.2920.64-0.14-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.230.1531.5832.04-0.08-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.190.1572.0073.080.080.07
BelmontOVC0.180.1468.0066.640.070.05
MarshallCUSA0.240.1450.0051.110.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.190.1431.8235.12-0.07-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1468.1865.170.070.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1431.8236.11-0.05-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1465.2264.340.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1429.1733.11-0.08-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1473.0872.610.080.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1222.2231.22-0.06-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.1245.4554.18-0.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.1224.0025.68-0.11-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.129.5210.67-0.08-0.09
BYUWCC0.090.1268.0070.260.030.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.1282.6181.130.030.07
South DakotaSum0.040.1244.0043.56-0.01-0.02
LibertyBSth0.150.1234.7836.53-0.04-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.1260.8762.470.010.03
San DiegoWCC0.190.1230.4328.20-0.07-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1243.4850.64-0.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.190.1272.7370.410.090.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.1156.0054.080.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.1148.0048.60-0.01-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1156.0055.450.020.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1173.9176.700.060.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0928.5733.30-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.150.0960.8756.270.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0931.8230.08-0.02-0.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0960.0055.560.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.0972.2275.600.070.05
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0940.0042.85-0.03-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.0950.0046.770.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0916.6719.49-0.06-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0950.0050.500.000.00
VermontAE0.100.0952.0054.860.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0936.3638.97-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0938.1037.67-0.01-0.02
DePaulBE0.150.0933.3334.02-0.05-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.150.0947.8348.57-0.01-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.130.0952.1753.440.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0950.0052.870.000.00
TulsaAmer0.140.0966.6764.700.050.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0977.2773.930.080.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0826.0927.89-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.090.0828.0030.49-0.04-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0625.0029.89-0.06-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0615.0018.13-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0620.0022.25-0.07-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0618.1821.11-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0617.6526.67-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.069.0917.14-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0614.2924.90-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.9065.330.010.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.1972.370.030.03
TulaneAmer0.110.0636.0034.84-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0660.0062.250.020.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0664.0062.090.030.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0639.1342.98-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0656.5255.340.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0679.1775.990.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0680.0081.560.030.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0633.3330.28-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0662.5064.120.010.02
Saint LouisA100.100.0634.7832.39-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0666.6767.670.030.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0631.8232.08-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.26-0.08-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0643.4845.21-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0679.1777.510.050.03
High PointBSth0.050.0657.1459.870.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0641.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.75-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.600.010.02
PacificWCC0.050.0623.8125.99-0.02-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0638.4638.04-0.02-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0623.8125.49-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0652.1754.100.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0681.8281.780.060.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0652.1749.150.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0633.3332.04-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0647.6245.02-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.75-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0662.5063.450.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.44-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6769.750.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0668.1867.110.000.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0666.6763.780.030.02
UMBCAE0.100.0623.0825.87-0.05-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0627.2727.80-0.04-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0670.8367.970.040.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0664.0057.890.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0666.6763.300.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.0672.0071.320.040.02
MercerSC0.100.0666.6767.110.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.63-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0658.3359.970.020.01
ButlerBE0.090.0670.8369.000.040.02
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.8760.670.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0645.0048.13-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0686.9682.160.030.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0625.0024.93-0.05-0.03
DenverSum0.080.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0668.1867.730.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0660.8759.830.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0641.6742.39-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.86-0.02-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0673.9174.640.040.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0614.2914.91-0.06-0.04
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.650.00-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.850.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0335.0034.83-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0352.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.27-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0357.1457.670.010.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.900.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.240.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.68-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.49-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.63-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.280.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
MaineAE0.050.0332.0031.16-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.710.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.400.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.570.020.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.770.020.01
OregonP120.050.0379.1777.200.030.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0363.6458.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.250.010.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.040.0379.1778.290.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0052.940.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0324.0026.44-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0360.8760.440.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0364.0062.070.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.840.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0355.0053.670.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.610.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.25-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0358.3359.310.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0362.5058.940.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
PurdueB100.040.0380.0077.910.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
Seton HallBE0.040.0370.8368.080.020.01
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
South AlabamaSB0.040.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0352.1751.830.000.00
TCUB120.040.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.730.010.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0368.1871.350.020.01
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.850.040.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.460.030.02
West VirginiaB120.040.0379.1778.100.020.02