live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:16
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:58
Current Record:4-0
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:4-0
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:122



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-21.50.04%
27-33.00.15%
26-44.70.64%
25-57.22.29%
24-69.74.32%
23-713.88.98%
22-819.112.97%
21-925.416.95%
20-1033.817.83%
19-1143.314.58%
18-1254.110.38%
17-1368.36.40%
16-1480.52.79%
15-1599.51.14%
14-16114.90.37%
13-17135.90.13%
12-18165.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Monmouth (147.4)MAACH64-54W100%0.0
11-16Lafayette (123.8)PatH83-56W100%0.0
11-20George Mason (227.3)A10N91-65W100%0.0
11-21Boston College (154.6)ACCN70-66W100%0.0
11-26VMI (274.1)SCN0-094%18.7
11-29College of Charleston (127.4)CAAH0-082%11.2
12-4LSU (62.1)SECH0-070%6.2
12-7Northern Kentucky (256.4)ASunA0-088%14.1
12-14Marshall (144.4)CUSAN0-079%9.8
12-20North Carolina St. (57.0)ACCN0-055%1.4
12-22Wofford (73.7)SCH0-078%9.1
12-30Virginia Tech (232.6)ACCH0-092%17.1
1-3TCU (157.5)B12A0-061%3.3
1-5Texas Tech (160.3)B12A0-065%4.8
1-10Iowa St. (60.5)B12H0-065%4.6
1-13Oklahoma (61.4)B12H0-065%4.6
1-17Texas (6.6)B12A0-018%-10.8
1-24TCU (157.5)B12H0-081%10.5
1-27Kansas St. (89.4)B12A0-048%-0.5
1-31Texas Tech (160.3)B12H0-084%12.0
2-3Oklahoma (61.4)B12A0-042%-2.5
2-7Baylor (29.5)B12H0-058%2.4
2-11Kansas St. (89.4)B12H0-071%6.7
2-14Iowa St. (60.5)B12A0-041%-2.6
2-16Kansas (24.4)B12H0-058%2.5
2-21Oklahoma St. (84.3)B12A0-050%0.1
2-24Texas (6.6)B12H0-038%-3.6
2-28Baylor (29.5)B12A0-034%-4.8
3-3Kansas (24.4)B12A0-035%-4.6
3-7Oklahoma St. (84.3)B12H0-073%7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1231.7726.37100.0065.8531.778.36
Texas TechB120.004.2866.6748.450.00-0.13
KansasB120.004.2850.0062.420.001.06
OklahomaB120.004.2750.0059.000.000.77
TexasB120.004.25100.0082.430.002.76
TCUB120.004.25100.0056.360.000.54
BaylorB120.004.25100.0070.440.001.74
Iowa St.B120.004.25100.0062.940.001.10
Kansas St.B120.004.2566.6755.280.000.45
Oklahoma St.B120.004.24100.0053.690.000.31
WoffordSC0.001.7675.0077.020.000.95
Virginia TechACC0.001.7566.6734.050.00-0.56
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.75100.0059.650.000.34
VMISC0.001.7533.3340.55-0.00-0.33
LSUSEC0.001.7575.0061.590.000.41
George MasonA1012.501.7333.3320.68-4.17-1.01
LafayettePat12.501.72100.0066.6512.500.57
Boston CollegeACC12.501.7266.6742.964.17-0.24
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.6925.0057.72-0.000.26
MarshallCUSA0.001.6766.6752.290.000.08
MonmouthMAAC12.501.67100.0060.1712.500.34
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.6733.3342.10-0.00-0.26
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2350.0054.290.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.230.0039.15-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.000.210.0028.08-0.00-0.09
FurmanSC0.000.2033.3325.18-0.00-0.10
Texas A&MSEC0.000.2066.6765.320.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.17100.0073.530.000.08
ChattanoogaSC0.000.150.0046.61-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1566.6749.590.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.14100.0045.790.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0044.91-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.1450.0042.680.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1475.0068.160.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.14100.0085.630.000.10
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0075.720.000.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1250.0052.290.000.01
MercerSC0.000.1250.0052.260.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.1225.0031.88-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0032.70-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.120.0034.07-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.12100.0064.500.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.120.0066.25-0.000.04
LipscombASun0.000.120.0042.80-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1250.0031.980.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0053.00-0.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.12100.0080.090.000.07
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0038.72-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0037.22-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1133.3355.40-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1150.0041.720.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.110.0034.55-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.110.0027.82-0.00-0.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1166.6767.200.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0018.48-0.00-0.07
IonaMAAC0.000.1166.6766.670.000.04
DukeACC0.000.11100.0086.130.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.11100.0078.630.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.11100.0074.620.000.06
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6750.790.000.00
IowaB100.000.1150.0065.570.000.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1133.3353.79-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.1166.6751.290.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.1133.3346.79-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1166.6740.400.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1166.6755.980.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1150.0051.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.11100.0073.290.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1150.0041.630.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0066.100.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6776.510.000.05
NavyPat0.000.090.0032.62-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0950.0045.600.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0053.040.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.090.0048.20-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0056.240.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0966.6748.790.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0966.6767.450.000.03
MassachusettsA101.560.0975.0060.410.780.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.09100.0058.780.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0073.660.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.09100.0070.030.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6758.190.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0047.840.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.08100.0060.550.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0850.0037.430.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0866.6744.970.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0833.3357.45-0.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.08100.0053.080.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0833.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0032.69-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0825.0031.12-0.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0833.3327.11-0.00-0.04
StanfordP120.000.0875.0071.090.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0866.6762.810.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0875.0053.860.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.08100.0076.190.000.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0047.120.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.06100.0051.050.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0650.0054.620.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3359.57-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0625.0035.71-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0633.3341.16-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.850.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0063.360.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0049.460.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy3.120.0625.0040.91-1.56-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0062.510.000.01
VCUA100.000.06100.0073.570.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.540.000.01
LehighPat0.000.060.0036.87-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC3.120.0675.0059.531.560.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0062.070.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0057.63-0.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0034.03-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0666.6746.620.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0633.3345.85-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0032.48-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.17-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.09-0.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0053.210.000.00
UtahP120.000.0666.6769.700.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0633.3341.77-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.06100.0043.160.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
PennIvy1.560.060.0025.60-1.56-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0045.12-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0675.0071.100.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.890.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0625.0033.97-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0029.55-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.060.0032.23-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0033.08-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6768.980.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0666.6746.540.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.860.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0033.75-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0028.50-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0031.92-0.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0575.0069.830.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0566.6756.650.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0533.3324.07-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0044.810.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0566.6763.960.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.050.0028.32-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3359.64-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3343.68-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0566.6748.850.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0575.0057.060.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0042.120.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3364.19-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.890.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy1.560.0340.0040.58-0.31-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.640.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0350.0038.370.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC1.560.0325.0041.91-0.78-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.890.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6758.650.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0034.71-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.960.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0018.23-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE1.560.030.0041.97-1.56-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.670.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.74-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.41-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.350.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.080.030.0037.13-2.08-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0063.040.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC2.080.030.0035.36-2.08-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3336.99-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0056.24-0.000.00