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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:10.0
Current RPI:10
Expected SOS:13
Current SOS:13
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-810.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH107-61W100%0.0
11-16James Madison (103.0)CAAN86-73W100%0.0
11-20Stetson (303.0)ASunH103-62W100%0.0
11-23Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH97-44W100%0.0
11-26Richmond (121.0)A10N59-67W100%0.0
11-27San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN50-72W100%0.0
12-5Kennesaw St. (263.0)ASunH87-54W100%0.0
12-8Virginia (3.0)ACCN70-54L0%0.0
12-13Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH100-58W100%0.0
12-17Marshall (128.0)CUSAN68-86W100%0.0
12-21Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH84-59W100%0.0
12-30Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA63-88W100%0.0
1-2Kansas St. (92.0)B12A83-87W100%0.0
1-4TCU (174.0)B12A87-95W100%0.0
1-9Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H77-60W100%0.0
1-12Kansas (1.0)B12H74-63W100%0.0
1-16Oklahoma (6.0)B12A70-68L0%0.0
1-20Texas (27.0)B12H49-56L0%0.0
1-23Texas Tech (36.0)B12A76-80W100%0.0
1-26Kansas St. (92.0)B12H70-55W100%0.0
1-30Florida (55.0)SECA88-71L0%0.0
2-2Iowa St. (23.0)B12A76-81W100%0.0
2-6Baylor (25.0)B12H80-69W100%0.0
2-9Kansas (1.0)B12A75-65L0%0.0
2-13TCU (174.0)B12H73-42W100%0.0
2-16Texas (27.0)B12A85-78L0%0.0
2-20Oklahoma (6.0)B12H62-76L0%0.0
2-22Iowa St. (23.0)B12H97-87W100%0.0
2-27Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A56-70W100%0.0
3-2Texas Tech (36.0)B12H90-68W100%0.0
3-5Baylor (25.0)B12A58-69W100%0.0
3-10TCU (174.0)B12N86-66W100%0.0
3-11Oklahoma (6.0)B12N69-67W100%0.0
3-12Kansas (1.0)B12N81-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1226.4726.4776.6276.6214.0914.09
KansasB125.355.3590.0090.004.284.28
TCUB125.285.2840.0040.00-1.06-1.06
OklahomaB125.285.2879.3179.313.093.09
Kansas St.B123.923.9254.8454.840.380.38
BaylorB123.923.9270.0070.001.571.57
Iowa St.B123.903.9070.0070.001.561.56
Texas TechB123.893.8965.5265.521.211.21
Oklahoma St.B123.873.8740.0040.00-0.77-0.77
TexasB123.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
RichmondA101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
StetsonASun1.591.5927.5927.59-0.71-0.71
Virginia TechACC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.541.5441.3841.38-0.27-0.27
MarshallCUSA1.541.5453.1253.120.100.10
FloridaSEC1.541.5456.2556.250.190.19
James MadisonCAA1.541.5466.6766.670.510.51
San Diego St.MWC1.541.5474.1974.190.740.74
Kennesaw St.ASun1.521.5232.1432.14-0.54-0.54
VirginiaACC1.521.5278.1278.120.850.85
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.491.4948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB1.471.4760.0060.000.290.29
Northern KentuckyHorz1.471.4725.9325.93-0.71-0.71
Texas A&MSEC0.230.2376.4776.470.120.12
VanderbiltSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
WashingtonP120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Miami FLACC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.110.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
HarvardIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
LipscombASun0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NJITASun0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1264.2964.290.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
LongwoodBSth0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0756.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0762.8662.860.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.070.0783.3383.330.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0465.5265.520.010.01
DukeACC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01