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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:33.4
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:127
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-22.80.14%
26-34.80.59%
25-47.72.11%
24-510.95.55%
23-615.410.28%
22-721.216.13%
21-827.618.86%
20-935.918.00%
19-1045.313.81%
18-1157.08.14%
17-1270.83.92%
16-1386.21.64%
15-14100.30.60%
14-15121.20.18%
13-16143.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Texas A&M (19.6)SECN65-88L0%0.0
11-15American (295.7)PatH98-64W100%0.0
11-18Morgan St. (319.1)MEACH111-48W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (152.8)BWH0-097%21.9
11-23Marist (316.7)MAACN0-099%30.0
11-30NJIT (312.5)ASunH0-0100%32.5
12-5Virginia (15.8)ACCH0-064%4.4
12-9Pittsburgh (181.6)ACCA0-088%14.3
12-20Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH0-0100%39.1
12-23Fordham (245.6)A10H0-098%25.5
12-29Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12A0-057%2.2
1-1Kansas St. (67.2)B12A0-057%2.3
1-6Oklahoma (39.9)B12H0-071%6.7
1-9Baylor (41.9)B12H0-071%6.8
1-13Texas Tech (67.9)B12A0-058%2.3
1-15Kansas (4.9)B12H0-048%-0.6
1-20Texas (42.7)B12H0-072%6.8
1-22TCU (44.2)B12A0-058%2.4
1-27Kentucky (15.3)SECH0-066%5.0
1-31Iowa St. (151.6)B12A0-079%9.8
2-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-075%8.3
2-5Oklahoma (39.9)B12A0-052%0.7
2-10Oklahoma St. (64.7)B12H0-075%8.2
2-12TCU (44.2)B12H0-076%8.4
2-17Kansas (4.9)B12A0-029%-6.6
2-20Baylor (41.9)B12A0-053%0.8
2-24Iowa St. (151.6)B12H0-091%15.8
2-26Texas Tech (67.9)B12H0-076%8.3
3-3Texas (42.7)B12A0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1234.7226.3854.5568.663.169.84
KansasB120.004.44100.0084.390.003.06
Kansas St.B122.784.41100.0065.022.781.33
Oklahoma St.B120.004.41100.0061.390.001.01
TCUB120.004.38100.0063.160.001.15
Texas TechB120.004.38100.0064.720.001.29
BaylorB120.004.38100.0062.820.001.12
Iowa St.B120.004.3850.0040.480.00-0.83
TexasB120.004.38100.0065.750.001.38
OklahomaB120.004.38100.0061.760.001.03
Texas A&MSEC16.671.89100.0070.0116.670.76
KentuckySEC0.001.8475.0073.100.000.85
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.790.0023.600.00-0.94
AmericanPat16.671.780.0031.43-16.67-0.66
Morgan St.MEAC16.671.7850.0036.500.00-0.48
PittsburghACC0.001.7533.3335.350.00-0.51
VirginiaACC0.001.75100.0075.510.000.89
FordhamA100.001.7233.3337.360.00-0.44
Long Beach St.BW0.001.7250.0052.840.000.10
MaristMAAC0.001.720.0024.720.00-0.87
NJITASun0.001.7233.3334.480.00-0.54
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.270.0025.140.00-0.13
VanderbiltSEC0.000.2366.6749.990.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.21100.0061.320.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.20100.0071.180.000.09
MissouriSEC0.000.2066.6757.890.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.180.0018.400.00-0.11
Wichita St.Amer0.000.18100.0082.290.000.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.170.0035.760.00-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.1750.0048.690.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.17100.0062.240.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0050.360.000.00
LehighPat0.000.1566.6751.580.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.150.0028.770.00-0.06
NavyPat0.000.1550.0052.870.000.01
VCUA100.000.1566.6766.590.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0066.990.000.05
Florida St.ACC0.000.14100.0068.200.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.14100.0080.230.000.09
TennesseeSEC0.000.14100.0048.350.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.12100.0055.280.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.1250.0050.310.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.1233.3349.220.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.120.0031.380.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.120.0039.010.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0022.920.00-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.120.0021.590.00-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.000.1233.3353.300.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.170.1233.3350.22-1.390.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0037.120.00-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1225.0047.800.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.120.0048.070.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.120.0031.910.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.120.0057.520.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.12100.0053.790.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1275.0061.940.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1275.0045.290.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0046.410.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.11100.0078.910.000.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0023.260.00-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.11100.0053.240.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1175.0058.930.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.11100.0062.760.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.1033.3333.620.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.090.0040.830.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0950.0053.620.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.090.0021.970.00-0.05
USCP120.000.09100.0073.190.000.04
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0966.6759.740.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0067.950.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.090.0048.110.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.09100.0038.710.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0966.6766.970.000.03
RutgersB100.000.09100.0046.880.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0035.450.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0034.040.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0029.880.00-0.04
DavidsonA100.000.09100.0070.080.000.04
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.580.000.06
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0074.500.000.04
StanfordP120.000.0975.0049.860.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.090.0013.450.00-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0035.330.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.06100.0039.270.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0036.690.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0042.730.00-0.01
WagnerNEC2.780.0666.6749.940.93-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0035.130.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0666.6757.400.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0045.730.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0066.710.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0666.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0028.720.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.060.0047.690.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.060.0061.460.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.06100.0048.790.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.060.0038.210.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0061.710.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0044.630.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0078.160.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0073.730.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0625.0035.000.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0036.830.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0675.0071.560.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0675.0051.210.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0650.0050.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.060.0024.440.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0633.3336.410.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0666.6759.540.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0633.3345.780.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0036.490.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3335.210.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0625.0054.930.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3354.200.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0051.080.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.06100.0060.400.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6740.070.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0666.6761.500.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE2.780.0325.0038.08-1.39-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.030.0044.950.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0066.530.000.01
South FloridaAmer2.780.0366.6728.760.93-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0350.0060.060.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0050.870.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0350.0060.130.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.850.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
RichmondA100.000.030.0030.280.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0366.6753.390.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.03100.0054.140.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0350.0060.430.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.01