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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:24.0
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:59
Current SOS:59
Current Record:26-8
Expected Record:26-8
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:235



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-824.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH87-59W100%0.0
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH107-66W100%0.0
11-20New Hampshire (127.0)AEH100-41W100%0.0
11-24Illinois (62.0)B10N89-57W100%0.0
11-25Temple (137.0)AmerN77-81L0%0.0
11-28Manhattan (263.0)MAACH108-61W100%0.0
12-3Virginia (18.0)ACCA57-66W100%0.0
12-7Western Carolina (271.0)SCN90-37W100%0.0
12-10VMI (329.0)SCH90-55W100%0.0
12-17UMKC (184.0)WACH112-67W100%0.0
12-20Radford (227.0)BSthH84-57W100%0.0
12-23Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH92-61W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A75-92W100%0.0
1-3Texas Tech (124.0)B12A77-76L0%0.0
1-7TCU (67.0)B12H82-70W100%0.0
1-10Baylor (11.0)B12H89-68W100%0.0
1-14Texas (156.0)B12A72-74W100%0.0
1-18Oklahoma (168.0)B12H87-89L0%0.0
1-21Kansas St. (57.0)B12A79-75L0%0.0
1-24Kansas (4.0)B12H85-69W100%0.0
1-28Texas A&M (92.0)SECH81-77W100%0.0
1-31Iowa St. (21.0)B12A72-85W100%0.0
2-4Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12H75-82L0%0.0
2-8Oklahoma (168.0)B12A50-61W100%0.0
2-11Kansas St. (57.0)B12H85-66W100%0.0
2-13Kansas (4.0)B12A84-80L0%0.0
2-18Texas Tech (124.0)B12H83-74W100%0.0
2-20Texas (156.0)B12H77-62W100%0.0
2-25TCU (67.0)B12A60-61W100%0.0
2-27Baylor (11.0)B12A71-62L0%0.0
3-3Iowa St. (21.0)B12H87-76W100%0.0
3-9Texas (156.0)B12N63-53W100%0.0
3-10Kansas St. (57.0)B12N51-50W100%0.0
3-11Iowa St. (21.0)B12N74-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1226.4726.4775.3475.3413.4213.42
Iowa St.B125.375.3773.3373.332.512.51
Kansas St.B125.285.2863.3363.331.411.41
TexasB125.285.2836.6736.67-1.41-1.41
TCUB123.973.9758.0658.060.640.64
KansasB123.883.8890.0090.003.103.10
Texas TechB123.873.8756.6756.670.520.52
BaylorB123.873.8779.3179.312.272.27
Oklahoma St.B123.873.8762.0762.070.930.93
OklahomaB123.853.8534.4834.48-1.19-1.19
VMISC1.541.5414.8114.81-1.09-1.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.541.5422.5822.58-0.84-0.84
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.541.5457.5857.580.230.23
Western CarolinaSC1.521.5224.1424.14-0.79-0.79
TempleAmer1.521.5248.3948.39-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC1.521.5248.2848.28-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth1.501.5041.3841.38-0.26-0.26
Northern KentuckyHorz1.491.4970.9770.970.630.63
IllinoisB101.491.4956.6756.670.200.20
ManhattanMAAC1.491.4932.2632.26-0.53-0.53
New HampshireAE1.491.4960.7160.710.320.32
Texas A&MSEC1.471.4753.3353.330.100.10
VirginiaACC1.471.4770.9770.970.620.62
The CitadelSC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.180.1873.5373.530.090.09
MarylandB100.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
AuburnSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
MichiganB100.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Green BayHorz0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
IowaB100.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
SamfordSC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
MercerSC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
WinthropBSth0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
DetroitHorz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
FurmanSC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
UMBCAE0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.080.08
Kent St.MAC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0736.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
WisconsinB100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
TulsaAmer0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
BucknellPat0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0481.2581.250.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0420.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.040.0451.7251.720.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ElonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00