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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:15.9
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:38
Current SOS:50
Current Record:16-3
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:39
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-34.50.74%
27-46.25.03%
26-58.314.81%
25-611.323.36%
24-715.425.44%
23-820.817.78%
22-928.28.78%
21-1036.63.27%
20-1145.90.69%
19-1254.10.08%
18-1371.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Texas A&M (29.2)SECN65-88L0%0.0
11-15American (307.4)PatH98-64W100%0.0
11-18Morgan St. (312.1)MEACH111-48W100%0.0
11-20Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH91-62W100%0.0
11-23Marist (318.3)MAACN78-84W100%0.0
11-24UCF (67.3)AmerN45-83W100%0.0
11-26Missouri (44.8)SECN83-79W100%0.0
11-30NJIT (274.8)ASunH102-69W100%0.0
12-5Virginia (4.4)ACCH68-61W100%0.0
12-9Pittsburgh (188.7)ACCA60-69W100%0.0
12-20Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH77-38W100%0.0
12-23Fordham (280.6)A10H86-69W100%0.0
12-29Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12A79-85W100%0.0
1-1Kansas St. (67.2)B12A69-77W100%0.0
1-6Oklahoma (22.4)B12H89-76W100%0.0
1-9Baylor (58.5)B12H57-54W100%0.0
1-13Texas Tech (25.9)B12A72-71L0%0.0
1-15Kansas (5.9)B12H66-71L0%0.0
1-20Texas (46.5)B12H86-51W100%0.0
1-22TCU (28.3)B12A0-056%1.6
1-27Kentucky (20.8)SECH0-075%7.6
1-31Iowa St. (106.2)B12A0-077%8.4
2-3Kansas St. (67.2)B12H0-082%10.1
2-5Oklahoma (22.4)B12A0-054%1.1
2-10Oklahoma St. (94.8)B12H0-087%12.7
2-12TCU (28.3)B12H0-076%8.0
2-17Kansas (5.9)B12A0-035%-4.4
2-20Baylor (58.5)B12A0-058%2.2
2-24Iowa St. (106.2)B12H0-091%14.8
2-26Texas Tech (25.9)B12H0-071%6.0
3-3Texas (46.5)B12A0-062%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1226.3326.3081.4877.0816.5814.24
KansasB122.914.1283.3379.541.942.43
Oklahoma St.B123.124.1272.2257.381.390.61
Kansas St.B122.984.1077.7866.421.661.35
Iowa St.B120.494.0961.1149.500.11-0.04
TCUB120.434.0773.6867.780.201.45
TexasB122.914.0766.6760.270.970.84
Texas TechB122.994.0777.7872.301.661.81
BaylorB122.914.0764.7158.590.860.70
OklahomaB122.914.0782.3571.111.881.72
MissouriSEC2.841.8270.5965.381.170.56
Texas A&MSEC2.771.8266.6762.780.920.47
KentuckySEC0.141.7773.6869.380.070.69
PittsburghACC2.701.6942.1131.90-0.43-0.61
Coppin St.MEAC2.711.6710.0018.54-2.17-1.05
AmericanPat2.701.6627.7829.14-1.20-0.69
Morgan St.MEAC2.691.6631.2541.14-1.01-0.29
Long Beach St.BW2.701.6442.1144.83-0.43-0.17
UCFAmer2.701.6472.2262.981.200.43
VirginiaACC2.631.64100.0088.392.631.26
FordhamA102.631.6133.3330.06-0.88-0.64
MaristMAAC2.631.6122.2222.75-1.46-0.88
NJITASun2.631.6141.1844.24-0.46-0.19
Savannah St.MEAC0.420.2427.7834.50-0.19-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.210.2468.4258.990.080.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.2468.4264.200.050.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.2436.8435.55-0.04-0.07
Wichita St.Amer0.220.2178.9577.360.120.12
TulsaAmer0.140.1855.0053.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.280.1610.0019.62-0.22-0.10
FloridaSEC0.140.1673.6871.550.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.140.1672.2268.920.060.06
MississippiSEC0.070.1652.6345.860.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1625.0028.02-0.07-0.07
SyracuseACC0.210.1668.4261.270.080.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1621.0544.26-0.08-0.02
NavyPat0.280.1460.0055.160.060.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1415.7920.92-0.10-0.08
LehighPat0.280.1438.8944.75-0.06-0.01
NebraskaB100.270.1366.6759.780.090.03
VCUA100.210.1360.0059.690.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.1373.6869.610.070.05
LouisvilleACC0.070.1377.7869.360.040.05
DukeACC0.200.1389.4785.190.160.09
GeorgiaSEC0.070.1366.6755.930.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.1361.1151.900.020.00
StetsonASun0.210.1133.3336.92-0.07-0.03
ColgatePat0.210.1150.0051.040.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.110.009.15-0.07-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.1116.6724.91-0.05-0.06
LipscombASun0.070.1152.9459.360.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.140.1111.1117.96-0.11-0.07
ManhattanMAAC0.220.1147.3748.17-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.1142.1144.97-0.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.210.1161.1160.530.050.02
George WashingtonA100.150.1145.0043.49-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.1120.0041.76-0.04-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.1127.7831.67-0.03-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.1112.5025.47-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.140.1155.0050.370.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.117.1414.82-0.12-0.07
SMUAmer0.070.1170.0070.630.030.04
UC IrvineBW0.140.1130.0039.93-0.05-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.1170.5969.610.060.04
Georgia TechACC0.200.1152.6343.120.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1172.2258.940.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.140.1168.4257.780.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.140.1068.4255.060.050.01
LSUSEC0.070.1061.1153.160.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.200.1010.5318.34-0.16-0.07
Arizona St.P120.140.1078.9576.130.080.05
NevadaMWC0.070.1085.7182.070.050.07
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1030.0032.53-0.06-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1035.2940.48-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.150.0931.5835.15-0.05-0.03
LafayettePat0.140.0922.2227.51-0.08-0.04
WagnerNEC0.220.0864.7164.540.060.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0810.5327.31-0.05-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0817.6519.33-0.09-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.0835.0026.14-0.04-0.04
RutgersB100.210.0857.8947.140.03-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0850.0052.440.000.00
Seton HallBE0.140.0875.0067.890.070.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0842.8635.25-0.01-0.02
DavidsonA100.140.0858.8261.440.030.02
Oregon St.P120.200.0857.8950.810.030.00
SouthernSWAC0.140.0827.7840.97-0.06-0.01
WisconsinB100.150.0850.0046.260.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.140.0829.4138.15-0.06-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.0889.4785.520.100.06
ConnecticutAmer0.130.0852.6347.390.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.140.0870.0058.100.050.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0827.7840.88-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.140.0865.0063.830.040.02
USCP120.140.0871.4368.300.060.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0889.4777.030.000.04
Austin PeayOVC0.140.0844.4445.98-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.140.0810.5314.86-0.11-0.06
Miami FLACC0.070.0876.4769.020.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0866.6768.700.020.03
StanfordP120.140.0855.0050.370.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0864.7159.980.020.02
Penn St.B100.200.0861.9055.770.050.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.0845.0045.02-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0657.8966.250.010.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.80-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.140.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0645.0041.35-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0663.1666.880.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.0640.0042.57-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.140.0629.4130.67-0.06-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.140.0672.2274.900.060.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0618.7536.76-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.0655.5656.710.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.0643.7554.09-0.020.00
TowsonCAA0.140.0663.1666.000.040.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0650.0053.160.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0661.9068.010.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0626.3230.430.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0622.2228.67-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0533.3337.220.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0561.1158.750.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0578.9576.970.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0523.5328.210.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0556.2556.810.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0560.0060.340.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.070.0575.0070.690.040.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0538.8944.14-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0568.7563.960.020.02
IowaB100.000.0547.6244.030.00-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0540.0042.72-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0565.0058.490.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.0547.0641.45-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0545.0047.050.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0557.1453.220.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.64-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0541.1839.130.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0547.0652.510.000.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0527.7827.30-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0531.5830.00-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0583.3381.410.050.03
RiderMAAC0.070.0565.0065.370.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0550.0051.650.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0544.4448.910.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0543.7549.10-0.01-0.00
SienaMAAC0.140.0530.0031.69-0.06-0.02
St. John'sBE0.140.0547.3742.18-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0552.6351.730.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.057.6923.28-0.06-0.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0563.1657.900.020.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0558.8262.450.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0517.6523.89-0.04-0.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0541.1839.65-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.070.0585.7180.080.050.03
ArizonaP120.140.0580.0078.980.080.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0584.2173.210.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0542.1132.48-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0577.7879.160.040.03
HarvardIvy0.070.0537.5046.63-0.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0580.0075.050.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0568.4257.770.030.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0563.1661.050.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0544.4441.150.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0552.9452.620.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0571.4374.650.000.03
ButlerBE0.070.0566.6763.070.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.68-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0580.9583.260.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.055.8819.37-0.06-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0526.6729.040.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0552.6355.290.000.01
MichiganB100.070.0575.0070.270.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.65-0.07-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0545.0048.560.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0511.1115.30-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0561.9065.160.020.02
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.69-0.05-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.900.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0573.6872.360.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0572.2272.970.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0542.1143.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0557.8953.190.000.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.690.020.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0521.0524.71-0.04-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0570.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0550.0042.180.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.620.030.01
YaleIvy0.000.0541.1847.510.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.080.0344.4442.74-0.01-0.00
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0323.5332.62-0.04-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0370.0071.230.030.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0352.9459.250.000.01
VMISC0.070.0325.0024.17-0.03-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.950.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0385.0083.180.050.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0370.5975.930.030.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0347.3746.910.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0318.7518.40-0.04-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.640.030.01
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0352.3848.520.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0352.6351.700.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.060.0368.4254.090.020.00
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.1145.970.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0328.5731.27-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0370.5973.140.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
OhioMAC0.060.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0539.47-0.04-0.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.040.000.01
UMBCAE0.060.0358.8258.360.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0373.6877.120.000.01