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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:9.2
Current RPI:9
Expected SOS:16
Current SOS:17
Current Record:19-5
Expected Record:24-7
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:110



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-54.110.40%
25-66.531.12%
24-79.433.11%
23-812.918.60%
22-917.75.91%
21-1023.00.76%
20-1131.80.08%
19-1243.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northern Kentucky (246.7)HorzH107-61W100%0.0
11-16James Madison (78.2)CAAN86-73W100%0.0
11-20Stetson (304.2)ASunH103-62W100%0.0
11-23Bethune Cookman (300.8)MEACH97-44W100%0.0
11-26Richmond (104.8)A10N59-67W100%0.0
11-27San Diego St. (52.7)MWCN50-72W100%0.0
12-5Kennesaw St. (282.6)ASunH87-54W100%0.0
12-8Virginia (5.7)ACCN70-54L0%0.0
12-13Louisiana Monroe (159.7)SBH100-58W100%0.0
12-17Marshall (125.5)CUSAN68-86W100%0.0
12-21Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCH84-59W100%0.0
12-30Virginia Tech (130.4)ACCA63-88W100%0.0
1-2Kansas St. (70.4)B12A83-87W100%0.0
1-4TCU (167.7)B12A87-95W100%0.0
1-9Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12H77-60W100%0.0
1-12Kansas (4.0)B12H74-63W100%0.0
1-16Oklahoma (3.0)B12A70-68L0%0.0
1-20Texas (28.7)B12H49-56L0%0.0
1-23Texas Tech (57.1)B12A76-80W100%0.0
1-26Kansas St. (70.4)B12H70-55W100%0.0
1-30Florida (23.5)SECA88-71L0%0.0
2-2Iowa St. (21.1)B12A76-81W100%0.0
2-6Baylor (25.5)B12H80-69W100%0.0
2-9Kansas (4.0)B12A75-65L0%0.0
2-13TCU (167.7)B12H0-096%19.6
2-16Texas (28.7)B12A0-059%2.5
2-20Oklahoma (3.0)B12H0-065%4.0
2-22Iowa St. (21.1)B12H0-077%7.9
2-27Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A0-077%8.1
3-2Texas Tech (57.1)B12H0-089%13.2
3-5Baylor (25.5)B12A0-059%2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1226.2426.3180.1978.7215.8415.11
Iowa St.B122.664.1073.9171.831.271.79
Oklahoma St.B122.664.1047.8344.42-0.12-0.46
KansasB124.654.1085.7181.293.322.56
Texas TechB122.664.1063.6458.860.720.73
Kansas St.B124.614.0763.6460.181.260.83
TCUB122.624.0747.8341.95-0.11-0.66
TexasB122.624.0765.2261.640.800.95
BaylorB122.664.0777.2771.861.451.78
OklahomaB122.664.0786.3683.681.932.74
RichmondA102.311.7859.0957.740.420.28
StetsonASun2.221.7523.8128.42-1.16-0.76
Virginia TechACC2.211.7254.1750.540.180.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.181.7033.3337.42-0.73-0.43
MarshallCUSA2.211.6952.1752.850.100.10
FloridaSEC2.171.6965.2265.200.660.51
James MadisonCAA2.221.6975.0073.791.110.80
Kennesaw St.ASun2.131.6726.0927.36-1.02-0.76
San Diego St.MWC2.171.6772.7372.590.990.75
VirginiaACC2.171.6682.6177.721.410.92
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.131.6452.0051.020.090.03
Louisiana MonroeSB2.081.6147.6250.81-0.100.03
Northern KentuckyHorz2.081.6133.3336.47-0.69-0.44
Texas A&MSEC0.260.2475.0075.350.130.12
VanderbiltSEC0.220.2158.3359.970.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.1950.0050.500.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1824.0025.68-0.09-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.230.1747.8348.57-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.170.1633.3333.62-0.06-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.220.1614.2920.63-0.16-0.09
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1647.8351.93-0.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.180.1659.0955.160.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.170.1683.3378.390.110.09
WashingtonP120.130.1662.5060.140.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1450.0052.880.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1468.1865.190.060.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1429.1733.08-0.06-0.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.190.1486.3684.240.130.09
LSUSEC0.130.1362.5059.070.030.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1352.1754.140.010.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1325.0027.25-0.07-0.06
KentuckySEC0.170.1375.0072.620.090.06
Miami FLACC0.090.1382.6177.600.060.07
LipscombASun0.090.1228.0030.50-0.04-0.05
NJITASun0.180.1256.0055.640.020.01
North FloridaASun0.180.1262.5064.110.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1221.7422.42-0.08-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1152.1753.440.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.1140.9138.83-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1183.3383.710.090.07
LouisvilleACC0.130.1179.1776.000.070.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1138.1037.68-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1125.0028.14-0.07-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1154.5552.530.020.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1168.1871.340.030.05
HarvardIvy0.140.1138.1039.12-0.03-0.02
HawaiiBW0.090.1185.0083.450.060.07
LongwoodBSth0.130.1121.7424.59-0.07-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.119.0917.13-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.1173.9174.640.040.05
TowsonCAA0.090.1162.5057.720.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1141.6739.90-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.170.1062.5058.940.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.1050.0048.120.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.140.0965.3865.500.040.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.090.0942.8641.32-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0841.6739.50-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0825.0025.09-0.05-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.0839.1341.06-0.03-0.01
FIUCUSA0.130.0839.1342.98-0.03-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0868.0066.640.030.03
ElonCAA0.130.0850.0050.080.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0870.8366.750.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0883.3382.090.090.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.040.0825.0033.24-0.02-0.03
WyomingMWC0.090.0843.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0817.6526.60-0.06-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0845.0049.16-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.090.0870.8368.530.040.03
CaliforniaP120.130.0866.6764.780.040.02
SamfordSC0.090.0840.0041.68-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0875.0071.980.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0841.6742.39-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0877.2773.930.040.04
VillanovaBE0.090.0887.5086.850.070.06
William & MaryCAA0.090.0868.1867.120.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.089.0912.25-0.07-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0856.0054.080.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0829.1733.75-0.06-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0850.0052.940.000.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.410.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0824.0024.16-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.130.0880.0081.550.080.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0843.4843.76-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0812.0011.95-0.07-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.090.0866.6763.330.030.02
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0856.0055.450.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0858.3363.160.010.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0872.7367.600.040.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0856.0055.750.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0883.3381.270.090.05
Saint LouisA100.130.0834.7832.39-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0845.4546.07-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0839.1335.44-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0833.3330.27-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.090.0883.3379.820.060.05
UTSACUSA0.090.0813.0412.96-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.78-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.88-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0656.5257.690.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.069.5210.67-0.04-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
Wright St.Horz0.050.0654.1753.810.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.24-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
The CitadelSC0.090.0630.4329.49-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0660.8762.070.020.01
UCFAmer0.090.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0613.0415.26-0.06-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.050.0660.8760.430.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0663.6461.560.020.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0655.0053.660.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.290.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0660.0062.260.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0658.3360.710.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.85-0.02-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0636.3636.29-0.01-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0640.0038.87-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0622.7324.37-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.050.0652.1755.080.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0647.6249.27-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.040.0560.8755.980.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0519.0525.89-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.0582.6181.130.060.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0523.8129.52-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0560.8758.910.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.0062.070.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.9058.180.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0525.0024.91-0.02-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0513.0416.41-0.06-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0552.3850.690.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0557.1459.870.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0566.6766.780.030.02
Holy CrossPat0.090.0541.6739.59-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0555.5652.480.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0054.220.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.090.0533.3335.19-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0522.2231.13-0.03-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0558.3359.310.010.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0560.0062.700.020.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0565.2268.610.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0548.0048.59-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0527.2726.46-0.04-0.03
OregonP120.050.0579.1777.220.030.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0563.6458.770.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0572.2275.710.020.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0565.2264.330.010.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.18-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.090.0569.5770.020.040.02
UCLAP120.090.0554.1752.980.010.00
VCUA100.050.0570.8371.030.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0534.7831.64-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5056.990.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0529.1726.68-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.040.0575.0071.810.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0526.0927.89-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.1751.980.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0550.0048.970.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0570.8367.910.040.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0552.1754.090.000.00
SyracuseACC0.090.0568.0064.070.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0535.0034.87-0.01-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0554.1754.420.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0537.5042.32-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.054.357.71-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0572.0071.570.020.02
ColgatePat0.040.0543.4844.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.040.0570.8365.570.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0568.1865.570.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0570.8370.130.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0550.0049.890.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.040.0545.8344.06-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.040.0579.1778.890.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0568.1867.730.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0537.5037.41-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0545.0048.15-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0560.8759.830.010.01
SMUAmer0.040.0586.9682.930.030.03
South DakotaSum0.090.0544.0043.56-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0514.2924.87-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.040.0547.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0576.1972.410.020.02
TulsaAmer0.040.0566.6764.730.010.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0528.5732.73-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.650.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.010.00
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02
Arizona St.P120.040.0356.0053.630.010.00
IndianaB100.040.0380.0075.690.030.01
IUPUISum0.040.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0366.6767.110.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0343.4837.80-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0330.0030.54-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.49-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0370.8367.980.020.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.95-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.710.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.1455.350.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0318.1821.06-0.03-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0330.4328.20-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0340.0042.85-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0360.8757.170.010.00
DaytonA100.000.0387.5083.730.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.270.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
LehighPat0.040.0339.1342.83-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0345.4543.17-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.42-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.040.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0360.0055.570.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0323.8125.48-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0316.6719.49-0.03-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0314.2914.92-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.390.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0328.5733.29-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.040.0330.0029.17-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.510.000.01
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.680.030.02
NavyPat0.040.0364.0064.470.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.090.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0365.2263.630.010.01
PurdueB100.040.0380.0077.900.030.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0327.2728.15-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.9680.430.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0330.0031.76-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0354.1754.210.000.00
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.840.000.00
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02