West Virginia

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	146.0
Current RPI:	146
Expected SOS:	55
Current SOS:	55
Current Record:	13-19
Expected Record:	13-19
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	112
Expected OOC SOS:	116

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-19	146.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	84-50	L	0%
11-22	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	N	44-87	W	100%
11-23	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	63-60	L	0%
11-25	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	N	77-70	L	0%
11-28	Virginia Military Inst (302.0)	BSth	H	94-69	W	100%
12-5	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	N	69-59	W	100%
12-8	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	H	68-67	W	100%
12-11	Duquesne (229.0)	A10	A	60-56	L	0%
12-15	Michigan (20.0)	B10	N	66-81	L	0%
12-19	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	76-71	W	100%
12-22	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	72-62	W	100%
12-30	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	74-67	W	100%
1-5	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	57-67	L	0%
1-9	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	53-57	W	100%
1-12	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	H	64-65	L	0%
1-16	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	69-67	L	0%
1-19	Purdue (136.0)	B10	A	79-52	L	0%
1-23	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	H	71-50	W	100%
1-26	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	80-66	L	0%
1-28	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	56-61	L	0%
2-2	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	61-77	W	100%
2-4	Texas (116.0)	B12	H	60-58	W	100%
2-9	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	50-63	W	100%
2-13	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	80-60	L	0%
2-16	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	H	66-64	W	100%
2-18	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	71-61	L	0%
2-23	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	57-73	L	0%
2-27	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	62-65	L	0%
3-2	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	91-65	L	0%
3-6	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	83-70	L	0%
3-9	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	74-83	L	0%
3-13	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	N	69-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
West Virginia	B12	26.44	26.44	38.19	38.19	-6.24	-6.24
Oklahoma	B12	5.59	5.59	60.71	60.71	1.20	1.20
Texas Tech	B12	5.56	5.56	35.71	35.71	-1.59	-1.59
Kansas St.	B12	4.20	4.20	77.42	77.42	2.31	2.31
Kansas	B12	4.18	4.18	84.38	84.38	2.88	2.88
Oklahoma St.	B12	4.15	4.15	73.33	73.33	1.94	1.94
Iowa St.	B12	4.13	4.13	64.52	64.52	1.20	1.20
Texas	B12	4.11	4.11	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Baylor	B12	4.08	4.08	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Texas Christian	B12	4.05	4.05	34.48	34.48	-1.26	-1.26
Gonzaga	WCC	1.81	1.81	93.55	93.55	1.58	1.58
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	1.67	1.67	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Michigan	B10	1.66	1.66	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Radford	BSth	1.64	1.64	35.71	35.71	-0.47	-0.47
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.64	1.64	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Purdue	B10	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Marist	MAAC	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.59	1.59	73.33	73.33	0.74	0.74
Davidson	SC	1.59	1.59	77.42	77.42	0.87	0.87
Duquesne	A10	1.56	1.56	24.14	24.14	-0.81	-0.81
Marshall	CUSA	1.56	1.56	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Oakland	Sum	1.56	1.56	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.22	0.22	75.00	75.00	0.11	0.11
Northwestern	B10	0.20	0.20	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.18	0.18	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
College of Charleston	SC	0.15	0.15	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	79.31	79.31	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01