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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:88.0
Current RPI:88
Expected SOS:50
Current SOS:50
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:214



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1588.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH77-62W100%0.0
11-12Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA87-82L0%0.0
11-17Duquesne (187.0)A10H96-83W100%0.0
11-21Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH101-68W100%0.0
11-23Presbyterian (349.0)BSthH88-55W100%0.0
11-26Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAN60-78W100%0.0
11-27Wisconsin (6.0)B10N63-70L0%0.0
12-2Loyola MD (274.0)PatH96-47W100%0.0
12-5Missouri (49.0)SECA80-71L0%0.0
12-10Gonzaga (20.0)WCCH76-80L0%0.0
12-14Marshall (276.0)CUSAN64-74W100%0.0
12-22Purdue (145.0)B10H70-73L0%0.0
12-29William & Mary (119.0)CAAN82-45W100%0.0
1-4TCU (212.0)B12A69-74W100%0.0
1-6Texas Tech (121.0)B12A86-89W100%0.0
1-11Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H72-73L0%0.0
1-13Texas (36.0)B12H69-80L0%0.0
1-18Kansas St. (51.0)B12A78-56L0%0.0
1-22Texas Tech (121.0)B12H87-81W100%0.0
1-25Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A81-75L0%0.0
1-28Baylor (30.0)B12A64-66W100%0.0
2-1Kansas St. (51.0)B12H81-71W100%0.0
2-5Oklahoma (26.0)B12H91-86W100%0.0
2-8Kansas (3.0)B12A83-69L0%0.0
2-10Iowa St. (7.0)B12H102-77W100%0.0
2-15Texas (36.0)B12A88-71L0%0.0
2-22Baylor (30.0)B12H75-88L0%0.0
2-26Iowa St. (7.0)B12A83-66L0%0.0
3-1TCU (212.0)B12H81-59W100%0.0
3-5Oklahoma (26.0)B12A72-62L0%0.0
3-8Kansas (3.0)B12H92-86W100%0.0
3-13Texas (36.0)B12N66-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1226.3226.3250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB125.515.5166.6766.671.841.84
BaylorB124.174.1767.7467.741.481.48
Iowa St.B124.104.1080.6580.652.512.51
Oklahoma St.B124.074.0761.2961.290.920.92
KansasB124.054.0574.1974.191.961.96
Texas TechB124.024.0246.6746.67-0.27-0.27
Kansas St.B124.024.0263.3363.331.071.07
OklahomaB124.004.0073.3373.331.861.86
TCUB123.993.9925.9325.93-1.92-1.92
Old DominionCUSA1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB101.661.6645.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
PresbyterianBSth1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
MarshallCUSA1.641.6430.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Georgia SouthernSC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
GonzagaWCC1.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
WisconsinB101.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
Loyola MDPat1.591.5935.7135.71-0.45-0.45
William & MaryCAA1.591.5963.3363.330.420.42
DuquesneA101.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
MissouriSEC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Virginia TechACC1.561.5626.6726.67-0.73-0.73
Michigan St.B100.240.2476.4776.470.130.13
BYUWCC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
TulsaCUSA0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
George MasonA100.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
Oral RobertsSlnd0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
ColoradoP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Miami FLACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
FurmanSC0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1214.8114.81-0.08-0.08
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
MinnesotaB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
FloridaSEC0.120.1294.1294.120.100.10
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1024.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1093.1093.100.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
UMBCAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ButlerBE0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01