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Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:25.5
Current RPI:34
Expected SOS:9
Current SOS:113
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-34.50.02%
27-44.30.25%
26-56.10.89%
25-68.42.74%
24-711.46.91%
23-814.411.43%
22-918.217.22%
21-1022.819.08%
20-1128.517.31%
19-1235.912.67%
18-1344.77.06%
17-1455.62.96%
16-1567.51.02%
15-1681.20.34%
14-1793.90.08%
13-18109.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Monmouth (174.6)MAACH64-54W100%0.0
11-16Lafayette (88.4)PatH83-56W100%0.0
11-20George Mason (224.4)A10N91-65W100%0.0
11-21Boston College (156.7)ACCN70-66W100%0.0
11-23Connecticut (78.4)AmerN78-68W100%0.0
11-26VMI (268.5)SCN103-72W100%0.0
11-29College of Charleston (176.7)CAAH86-57W100%0.0
12-4LSU (74.2)SECH73-74L0%0.0
12-7Northern Kentucky (269.6)ASunA42-67W100%0.0
12-14Marshall (215.1)CUSAN69-66W100%0.0
12-20North Carolina St. (45.3)ACCN0-057%2.1
12-22Wofford (55.5)SCH0-079%9.5
12-30Virginia Tech (216.1)ACCH0-094%18.5
1-3TCU (65.6)B12A0-045%-1.6
1-5Texas Tech (134.6)B12A0-069%5.8
1-10Iowa St. (34.6)B12H0-068%5.6
1-13Oklahoma (18.8)B12H0-059%2.5
1-17Texas (5.5)B12A0-016%-11.5
1-24TCU (65.6)B12H0-073%7.4
1-27Kansas St. (131.3)B12A0-067%5.3
1-31Texas Tech (134.6)B12H0-089%14.7
2-3Oklahoma (18.8)B12A0-029%-6.4
2-7Baylor (9.7)B12H0-053%0.9
2-11Kansas St. (131.3)B12H0-089%14.3
2-14Iowa St. (34.6)B12A0-039%-3.4
2-16Kansas (7.7)B12H0-062%3.5
2-21Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12A0-039%-3.4
2-24Texas (5.5)B12H0-041%-2.6
2-28Baylor (9.7)B12A0-025%-8.0
3-3Kansas (7.7)B12A0-032%-5.4
3-7Oklahoma St. (30.6)B12H0-068%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1227.9726.3185.4265.8119.818.32
KansasB120.004.1188.8971.070.001.73
TexasB120.364.1190.0082.520.292.67
OklahomaB120.004.1077.7868.880.001.55
Texas TechB120.284.1087.5049.810.21-0.02
Kansas St.B120.004.0860.0039.390.00-0.87
TCUB120.004.08100.0069.260.001.57
BaylorB120.004.0888.8976.080.002.13
Iowa St.B120.004.0888.8965.970.001.30
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0788.8965.430.001.26
WoffordSC0.001.7075.0079.290.001.00
Virginia TechACC0.001.7055.5639.330.00-0.36
VMISC5.001.6937.5040.34-1.25-0.33
College of CharlestonCAA5.671.6955.5647.050.63-0.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.6980.0064.220.000.48
George MasonA105.251.6928.5726.86-2.25-0.78
LSUSEC5.001.6975.0060.672.500.36
ConnecticutAmer5.251.6966.6757.931.750.27
Boston CollegeACC5.001.6675.0043.302.50-0.22
LafayettePat5.001.6685.7172.343.570.74
MarshallCUSA5.001.6128.5740.33-2.14-0.31
MonmouthMAAC5.001.6150.0058.510.000.27
Northern KentuckyASun5.001.6128.5734.59-2.14-0.50
South CarolinaSEC0.310.2262.5064.900.080.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.220.0038.78-0.00-0.05
The CitadelSC0.530.2016.6729.59-0.35-0.08
FurmanSC0.250.1925.0029.22-0.13-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.250.1877.7866.040.140.06
TennesseeSEC0.000.1857.1445.530.00-0.02
MarylandB100.560.1790.9167.920.450.06
MemphisAmer0.000.1650.0059.030.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1655.5657.230.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.1690.0075.840.000.08
PittsburghACC0.000.1662.5053.840.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.310.1544.4450.93-0.030.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1442.8636.73-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1444.4431.46-0.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.520.000.10
McNeese St.Slnd0.280.1325.0049.05-0.14-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.1366.6757.080.000.02
ClemsonACC0.280.1366.6745.880.09-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1360.0064.780.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0086.080.000.09
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0094.460.000.12
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1271.4364.440.000.03
MercerSC0.280.1237.5041.09-0.07-0.02
SamfordSC0.280.1233.3331.09-0.09-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1222.2238.58-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1222.2245.74-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.1125.0042.82-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.1133.3326.81-0.00-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.590.1187.5080.890.440.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1111.1143.47-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.830.1110.0018.60-0.67-0.07
IonaMAAC0.280.1166.6772.270.090.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.110.0035.83-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0034.13-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.310.11100.0085.390.310.08
StanfordP120.000.1171.4361.160.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.310.1118.1827.73-0.20-0.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1137.5032.05-0.00-0.04
IowaB100.000.1172.7362.660.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1110.0018.39-0.00-0.07
Notre DameACC0.000.1190.9171.250.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.1160.0054.040.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1111.1145.10-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1122.2242.30-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.1044.4433.13-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.1070.0071.650.000.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1050.0037.860.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1033.3332.65-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1040.0050.27-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1066.6751.450.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.1045.4551.71-0.000.00
ArmyPat0.280.0977.7869.100.150.03
NavyPat0.280.0920.0021.16-0.17-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0013.85-0.00-0.06
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
WisconsinB100.310.0890.9188.300.260.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0844.4444.49-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.0840.0058.50-0.060.01
CharlotteCUSA0.250.0855.5665.940.030.03
DavidsonA100.000.0887.5076.910.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0850.0056.190.000.01
DaytonA100.630.0877.7869.570.350.03
MassachusettsA100.560.0860.0055.070.110.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0844.4440.58-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.310.0825.0037.01-0.16-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0862.5072.760.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6725.01-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.0842.8635.74-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0857.1456.250.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6755.560.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0877.7871.340.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0875.0065.380.000.02
SMUAmer0.280.0866.6770.530.090.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.0822.2236.43-0.14-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0850.0048.280.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0875.0060.540.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.280.0828.5742.20-0.12-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0877.7851.200.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0862.5059.380.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0877.7877.550.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0857.1447.630.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0872.7363.400.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0054.960.000.01
TowsonCAA0.280.0866.6751.390.090.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0070.980.000.03
IdahoBSky0.310.0637.5049.62-0.08-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0061.230.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0611.1129.36-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6765.150.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.310.0620.0047.17-0.19-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.090.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0633.3342.09-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.16-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0042.53-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0657.1452.850.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0642.8651.80-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.620.0627.2737.98-0.28-0.01
YaleIvy0.670.0670.0064.560.270.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0650.0054.480.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0051.980.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0675.0050.490.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0655.5631.620.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.110.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0049.220.00-0.00
PennIvy0.310.0537.5032.38-0.08-0.02
WagnerNEC0.310.0514.2933.61-0.22-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.590.0566.6758.510.200.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0550.0046.750.00-0.00
FordhamA100.280.0528.5727.72-0.12-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0570.0066.510.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0590.0079.360.250.03
Penn St.B100.310.0590.9154.340.260.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.050.009.06-0.00-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.0550.0074.020.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0550.0032.740.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0533.3338.27-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0557.1459.520.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0511.1130.96-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.0580.0072.430.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.370.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0520.0020.57-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0537.5037.27-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0530.0028.54-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0571.4372.840.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0570.0066.410.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2932.21-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0566.6754.790.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0542.8638.69-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0540.0065.07-0.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0550.0056.650.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0530.0031.51-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0544.4444.67-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0562.5078.030.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0587.5054.670.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.470.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.05100.0070.570.000.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.0522.2230.95-0.15-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.62-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0080.930.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0590.0065.960.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0550.0061.890.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.21-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0525.0037.29-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0537.5048.77-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.530.0542.8656.16-0.080.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.740.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0011.08-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0566.6753.260.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4360.170.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0570.0070.960.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0537.5051.76-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0039.09-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0514.2932.16-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0555.5656.150.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0575.0061.240.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0537.5046.01-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0536.3647.60-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5051.38-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0516.6727.17-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0542.8655.87-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0017.65-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0560.0047.810.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0537.5064.38-0.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0571.4350.790.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0555.5655.850.000.01
UtahP120.000.0577.7880.520.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.86-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.310.0366.6776.390.100.02
NebraskaB100.310.0366.6742.930.10-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.310.030.0022.93-0.31-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0371.4367.660.130.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0355.5655.960.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.310.0328.5741.09-0.13-0.01
NJITind0.000.0336.3641.92-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.0333.3343.11-0.10-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.310.0350.0057.760.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.480.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0320.0033.83-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0337.5048.43-0.08-0.00
CornellIvy0.310.0355.5648.540.03-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0333.3338.84-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0355.5639.260.03-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.920.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.45-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5639.850.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0320.0040.86-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.650.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.150.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0355.5653.100.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.280.030.0011.93-0.28-0.02
BryantNEC0.360.0328.5746.92-0.15-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0362.5064.640.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.360.030.0014.53-0.36-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7173.700.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3358.570.000.00
MaineAE0.280.0311.1121.00-0.22-0.02
New HampshireAE0.280.0357.1464.630.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7352.480.130.00
UCFAmer0.000.0350.0030.140.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
USCP120.000.0360.0037.100.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.02-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0342.8633.13-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0320.0033.87-0.17-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0375.0067.800.000.01
CampbellBSth0.250.0314.2944.11-0.18-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0310.0040.34-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5732.96-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.42-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.390.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0325.0047.42-0.00-0.00