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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


West Virginia

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:16.0
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:39
Current SOS:218
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-13.00.16%
29-23.51.73%
28-35.45.66%
27-48.012.63%
26-511.020.01%
25-614.521.75%
24-718.818.10%
23-824.010.91%
22-931.25.88%
21-1039.22.12%
20-1149.40.76%
19-1263.70.21%
18-1375.00.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mount St. Mary's (168.7)NECH87-59W100%0.0
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (315.8)SWACH107-66W100%0.0
11-20New Hampshire (156.1)AEH100-41W100%0.0
11-24Illinois (134.7)B10N89-57W100%0.0
11-25Temple (58.9)AmerN77-81L0%0.0
11-28Manhattan (234.2)MAACH108-61W100%0.0
12-3Virginia (4.7)ACCA0-038%-3.6
12-7Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-0100%40.0
12-10VMI (316.6)SCH0-0100%37.6
12-17UMKC (146.9)WACH0-099%28.3
12-20Radford (250.4)BSthH0-0100%35.5
12-23Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-099%28.0
12-30Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12A0-073%7.5
1-3Texas Tech (68.9)B12A0-071%6.6
1-7TCU (53.5)B12H0-089%14.8
1-10Baylor (11.5)B12H0-076%8.3
1-14Texas (135.5)B12A0-087%13.6
1-18Oklahoma (70.0)B12H0-089%14.6
1-21Kansas St. (99.4)B12A0-080%9.9
1-24Kansas (7.5)B12H0-067%5.1
1-28Texas A&M (42.0)SECH0-086%12.7
1-31Iowa St. (31.7)B12A0-056%1.7
2-4Oklahoma St. (58.3)B12H0-087%13.7
2-8Oklahoma (70.0)B12A0-076%8.4
2-11Kansas St. (99.4)B12H0-091%16.1
2-13Kansas (7.5)B12A0-047%-1.1
2-18Texas Tech (68.9)B12H0-086%12.7
2-20Texas (135.5)B12H0-095%19.7
2-25TCU (53.5)B12A0-076%8.6
2-27Baylor (11.5)B12A0-057%2.1
3-3Iowa St. (31.7)B12H0-074%7.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaB1228.5626.3177.2779.5115.5815.53
Iowa St.B120.524.1271.4371.390.221.76
KansasB120.004.1085.7178.420.002.33
Kansas St.B120.004.0885.7158.730.000.71
TexasB120.004.0850.0038.120.00-0.97
Texas TechB120.004.0885.7166.670.001.36
BaylorB120.004.07100.0077.370.002.23
OklahomaB120.004.0783.3354.360.000.36
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0783.3359.200.000.75
TCUB120.004.07100.0062.490.001.02
VMISC0.001.700.0021.96-0.00-0.95
Western CarolinaSC0.001.6716.6719.63-0.00-1.02
TempleAmer9.721.6766.6762.363.240.41
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC8.331.670.0025.60-8.33-0.81
Mount St. Mary'sNEC8.331.6714.2950.61-5.950.02
UMKCWAC0.001.6671.4358.090.000.27
RadfordBSth0.001.6433.3337.65-0.00-0.41
IllinoisB108.331.6466.6744.132.78-0.19
Northern KentuckyHorz0.601.6450.0053.970.000.13
ManhattanMAAC8.931.6440.0039.47-1.79-0.35
New HampshireAE8.931.6460.0059.691.790.32
Texas A&MSEC0.001.6166.6767.880.000.58
VirginiaACC0.001.61100.0083.260.001.07
AuburnSEC0.000.1983.3355.200.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.520.1983.3362.840.350.05
WoffordSC0.000.170.0033.58-0.00-0.06
The CitadelSC0.000.1740.0027.05-0.00-0.08
MarylandB100.000.1685.7156.490.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1657.1467.020.000.05
MercerSC0.000.1450.0053.050.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1466.6758.420.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.1425.0033.54-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth1.980.1460.0070.500.400.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1420.0048.38-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz1.980.140.0019.51-1.98-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1450.0064.840.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1433.3348.71-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.1485.7180.010.000.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.1342.8644.33-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0042.55-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.520.1371.4366.530.220.04
NorthwesternB100.460.1371.4366.220.200.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1366.6754.380.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1325.0039.28-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1266.6769.810.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
FurmanSC0.000.1220.0049.38-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.1257.1455.810.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1185.7162.920.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.1125.0024.66-0.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
Miami FLACC0.000.1171.4365.740.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1185.7175.950.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0019.30-0.00-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1157.1448.860.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1171.4386.030.000.08
Michigan St.B100.460.1150.0061.590.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1114.2934.56-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0024.25-0.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1185.7180.960.000.07
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1133.3338.76-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC1.190.1185.7162.410.850.03
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
LSUSEC0.000.1171.4349.770.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.1185.7159.740.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1157.1469.300.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.1125.0056.92-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1114.2926.81-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1171.4349.590.00-0.00
IndianaB100.460.1083.3375.060.310.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1016.6729.36-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.100.0037.92-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.100.0039.35-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1016.6732.62-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1028.5750.51-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.1057.1461.940.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0925.0038.72-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0933.3327.13-0.00-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.460.0925.0040.81-0.23-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0980.0055.340.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0950.0051.260.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.690.0825.0053.29-0.350.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0850.0056.260.000.01
LibertyBSth0.460.0840.0050.71-0.090.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0820.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.600.0850.0038.430.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0828.5750.20-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0857.1448.600.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0885.7172.660.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.320.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.0871.4346.010.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0850.0045.920.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.08100.0069.770.000.03
VCUA100.000.0885.7178.150.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.0875.0073.840.000.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0866.6751.460.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.460.08100.0091.060.460.07
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0039.200.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.0887.5078.680.000.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0875.0047.510.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0828.5734.18-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0850.0043.610.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0840.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0842.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.460.0850.0051.820.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.520.0857.1464.940.070.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0660.0058.950.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.690.0671.4356.280.300.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0550.0029.280.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0514.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0550.0071.330.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0550.0047.560.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0550.0066.170.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0557.1447.320.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0525.0030.93-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.600.0571.4350.570.260.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0516.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0540.0057.49-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0571.4366.730.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0562.5043.960.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0585.7155.550.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.600.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.050.0024.19-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.05100.0074.800.000.03
MinnesotaB100.520.0585.7165.670.370.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0083.120.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0533.3364.14-0.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0032.39-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.690.0575.0067.660.350.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0533.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0540.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0571.4359.850.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0583.3361.490.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0583.3362.080.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0520.0034.22-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0514.2929.81-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0070.140.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0583.3357.990.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0520.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0542.8635.68-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0571.4371.570.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0516.6727.03-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0542.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0540.0030.80-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0516.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0585.7169.010.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0047.990.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0542.8638.05-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0533.3326.75-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0560.0052.760.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0566.6732.240.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0575.0059.100.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.0550.0053.560.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0528.5728.46-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3353.85-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0550.0036.820.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.050.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.650.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5056.500.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0333.3341.11-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0075.380.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.460.0366.6770.930.150.01
George MasonA100.520.0357.1442.940.07-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.690.0357.1440.550.10-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.01
La SalleA100.600.0360.0051.780.120.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.600.0383.3358.080.400.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.520.0350.0046.670.00-0.00