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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


West Virginia

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:31.4
Current RPI:30
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:5
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:5.46%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:20
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-812.82.51%
22-917.812.89%
21-1024.326.47%
20-1131.829.31%
19-1240.618.97%
18-1351.47.73%
17-1464.11.92%
16-1577.20.19%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oral Roberts (43.6)SumH78-71W100%0.0
11-15Kent St. (84.8)MACH60-70L0%0.0
11-17Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACH97-62W100%0.0
11-22Morehead St. (187.8)OVCN83-48W100%0.0
11-28Akron (49.0)MACH77-56W100%0.0
12-3Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA75-62L0%0.0
12-8Kansas St. (45.9)B12N80-85W100%0.0
12-10Miami FL (64.4)ACCH77-66W100%0.0
12-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)SlndH84-64W100%0.0
12-19Tennessee Tech (136.1)OVCH72-53W100%0.0
12-22Missouri St. (82.4)MVCN70-68W100%0.0
12-23Baylor (6.8)B12N81-83L0%0.0
12-28Villanova (98.5)BEH83-69W100%0.0
12-30Seton Hall (53.1)BEA67-48L0%0.0
1-4Rutgers (141.7)BEA64-85W100%0.0
1-7Georgetown (13.9)BEH74-62W100%0.0
1-9Connecticut (27.1)BEA64-57L0%0.0
1-14Rutgers (141.7)BEH84-60W100%0.0
1-18Marshall (61.3)CUSAN62-78W100%0.0
1-21Cincinnati (89.8)BEH77-74W100%0.0
1-25St. John's (151.1)BEA78-62L0%0.0
1-28Syracuse (2.1)BEA63-61L0%0.0
1-30Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH66-72L0%0.0
2-5Providence (146.8)BEA0-069%5.5
2-8Notre Dame (66.5)BEH0-073%6.7
2-11Louisville (25.3)BEH0-061%3.0
2-16Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA0-053%0.9
2-22Notre Dame (66.5)BEA0-050%-0.0
2-24Marquette (15.5)BEH0-055%1.4
2-28DePaul (187.2)BEH0-092%15.3
3-3South Florida (96.1)BEA0-067%4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
West VirginiaBE26.2125.9962.6463.546.627.04
RutgersBE4.603.7654.5550.040.420.00
Notre DameBE0.383.7365.2264.320.111.07
PittsburghBE2.413.7059.0957.110.440.53
CincinnatiBE2.602.1772.7367.661.180.77
SyracuseBE2.462.1795.6591.742.251.81
LouisvilleBE0.332.1778.2673.770.191.03
Seton HallBE2.372.1763.6462.480.650.54
ConnecticutBE2.512.1766.6762.750.840.55
South FloridaBE0.342.1754.5549.140.03-0.04
MarquetteBE0.342.1479.1777.010.201.16
ProvidenceBE0.372.1456.5250.930.050.04
St. John'sBE2.422.1440.9138.29-0.44-0.50
DePaulBE0.432.1450.0044.030.00-0.26
VillanovaBE2.362.1447.6247.67-0.11-0.10
GeorgetownBE2.462.1485.0080.251.721.29
AkronMAC2.321.7571.4370.251.000.71
Kent St.MAC2.331.7370.0067.950.930.62
Morehead St.OVC2.321.7047.6248.73-0.11-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC2.331.7063.6461.970.630.41
Miami FLACC2.311.6968.4262.170.850.41
BaylorB122.271.6990.4883.291.841.13
MarshallCUSA2.321.6961.9061.850.550.40
Kansas St.B122.221.6776.1970.631.160.69
Mississippi St.SEC2.271.6777.2771.411.240.71
Oral RobertsSum2.221.6784.0083.441.511.11
Missouri St.MVC2.271.6756.5259.170.300.31
Alcorn St.SWAC2.231.6417.6523.95-1.44-0.85
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.221.6419.0521.86-1.37-0.92
Texas A&MB120.350.2252.3846.150.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.290.2145.4540.70-0.03-0.04
Texas TechB120.190.1931.8225.98-0.07-0.09
MissouriB120.150.1991.3087.180.120.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.1734.7838.42-0.07-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1717.3924.41-0.13-0.09
MemphisCUSA0.210.1769.5771.510.080.07
KansasB120.150.1678.2678.390.090.09
OhioMAC0.150.1681.8277.200.100.09
OklahomaB120.240.1659.0954.700.040.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1450.0051.730.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.1450.0058.160.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1447.6248.82-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.150.1430.0034.15-0.06-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.230.1362.5062.060.060.03
Iowa St.B120.050.1373.9168.430.020.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1363.6456.710.030.02
DetroitHorz0.140.1347.8349.03-0.01-0.00
Louisiana St.SEC0.140.1359.0957.280.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1230.0037.30-0.06-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1226.3229.71-0.07-0.05
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1185.7182.180.080.07
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1133.3335.97-0.05-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1170.8364.420.060.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.114.359.66-0.13-0.09
BuffaloMAC0.100.1168.4266.450.040.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.150.1176.1975.940.080.06
AlabamaSEC0.150.1168.1869.100.050.04
DuquesneA100.140.1159.0956.350.030.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.190.1133.3338.38-0.06-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.1159.0950.820.010.00
TexasB120.100.1160.8761.370.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.1134.7835.50-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1155.0054.480.020.01
AuburnSEC0.090.1156.5248.810.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.1126.3229.79-0.02-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1071.4373.350.040.05
TennesseeSEC0.140.1045.4544.66-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.1014.2917.17-0.06-0.07
FloridaSEC0.180.1082.6177.630.120.06
GeorgiaSEC0.050.1045.4541.20-0.00-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.1044.0045.89-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.0919.0525.52-0.11-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.0935.0040.78-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.0931.8242.13-0.04-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0945.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0933.3334.47-0.02-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.09100.0094.550.100.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0956.5253.100.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.160.0861.9058.590.040.01
South AlabamaSB0.160.0852.3852.870.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.100.0855.0057.410.010.01
UABCUSA0.150.0840.9139.82-0.03-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0858.3359.980.010.02
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0845.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.0838.1042.78-0.03-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.088.7011.67-0.12-0.06
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0871.4366.600.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0872.7371.710.020.04
LamarSlnd0.100.0861.9067.230.020.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0830.4326.44-0.02-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.085.267.30-0.05-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0828.5734.20-0.04-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0881.8280.430.060.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0868.1869.680.020.03
PrincetonIvy0.140.0847.3752.87-0.010.00
South DakotaSum0.130.0826.3228.83-0.06-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0837.5038.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0840.9138.38-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0836.3639.72-0.03-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.150.0850.0052.930.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.090.0856.5255.200.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0834.7832.06-0.03-0.03
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0880.0078.060.060.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0819.0522.37-0.03-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0862.5061.500.020.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.090.0857.1460.750.010.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.0869.5765.150.040.02
La SalleA100.100.0870.8368.820.040.03
MaineAE0.050.0850.0049.730.00-0.00
MonmouthNEC0.140.0828.0028.91-0.06-0.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.0854.5556.840.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0810.0014.93-0.08-0.06
WagnerNEC0.100.0882.6184.570.060.05
AlbanyAE0.090.0860.0060.420.020.02
BryantNEC0.000.088.3310.86-0.00-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.040.0881.8281.490.030.05
KentuckySEC0.050.0895.8392.570.040.07
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.140.0813.6416.35-0.10-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0869.5765.870.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0617.6527.10-0.04-0.03
GramblingSWAC0.060.0615.0015.73-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0647.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.100.0635.0039.29-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.100.0631.8232.75-0.04-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.110.0634.7833.46-0.03-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.0665.2263.790.030.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0618.1822.22-0.06-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0652.3857.860.000.01
BelmontASun0.100.0669.5773.280.040.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.000.0644.4441.71-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0686.9683.160.040.04
BucknellPat0.090.0573.9175.000.050.03
HoustonCUSA0.050.0547.6244.63-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.0545.8346.68-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.0547.6246.46-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0521.7424.58-0.06-0.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.100.0543.4843.31-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.100.0538.1040.81-0.02-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.090.0560.8759.050.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0547.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0540.9142.96-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0586.3683.090.030.04
Southern MethodistCUSA0.040.0538.1037.86-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0524.0024.86-0.02-0.03
CreightonMVC0.090.0587.5085.410.070.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0552.1750.090.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0556.5254.220.010.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0519.0521.29-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.0561.9055.140.020.01
Old DominionCAA0.000.0560.0058.290.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0562.5062.490.020.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.090.0590.9187.740.080.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0547.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0522.2227.62-0.03-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0582.6180.420.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0543.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.054.769.95-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0554.5554.300.000.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0534.7832.08-0.03-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.9142.05-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0556.5255.950.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0519.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0556.5257.720.000.01
ArizonaP120.090.0566.6768.550.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0535.2939.85-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.058.7012.13-0.00-0.04
FordhamA100.090.0540.9134.50-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.090.0536.3638.48-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0575.0075.780.000.03
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.040.0535.0035.31-0.01-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0534.7835.20-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0561.9063.520.020.01
OaklandSum0.080.0548.0050.21-0.000.00
RichmondA100.090.0550.0048.490.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0537.5038.52-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0568.0070.030.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0540.9139.56-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0573.9175.490.040.03
Southern UtahSum0.040.0545.4544.30-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0521.7422.76-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.090.0566.6768.050.030.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0545.0044.15-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0552.6348.410.00-0.00
XavierA100.090.0565.2263.740.030.01
NebraskaB100.060.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0333.3333.82-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0372.2271.970.000.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0352.3852.860.000.00
LipscombASun0.050.0343.4843.82-0.01-0.00
CharlotteA100.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0339.1342.12-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.030.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0339.1336.10-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0330.4331.43-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0348.0051.88-0.000.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0056.760.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0327.7829.87-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0355.0060.330.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.800.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
DenverSB0.050.0370.8372.230.020.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.000.0340.0041.30-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0334.7833.43-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0383.3384.760.030.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0369.5761.310.000.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0381.8281.030.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0341.6738.67-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0385.7178.050.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.58-0.02-0.01
St. LouisA100.050.0377.2777.670.030.01
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.060.030.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
VermontAE0.000.0360.0062.490.000.01
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.0327.2723.80-0.00-0.01
ButlerHorz0.000.0350.0050.800.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.040.0333.3337.16-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0317.3922.00-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0326.0928.60-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0335.0038.58-0.00-0.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.010.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.54-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0340.9143.66-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0320.8320.60-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
TroySB0.050.0328.5730.17-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0354.5556.790.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0369.5766.540.000.01
Western KentuckySB0.000.0334.7834.48-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.44-0.04-0.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0334.7834.61-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.970.000.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.000.0335.0039.38-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.61-0.01-0.00