live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:53.8
Current RPI:43
Expected SOS:72
Current SOS:74
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:266



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-621.50.74%
23-727.95.79%
22-837.317.75%
21-948.628.51%
20-1060.127.10%
19-1171.814.73%
18-1284.14.47%
17-1397.90.87%
16-14106.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Dartmouth (290.3)IvyH84-67W100%0.0
11-15Wagner (197.3)NECH69-59W100%0.0
11-19Long Beach St. (102.2)BWN77-80L0%0.0
11-20Bradley (313.9)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi (129.0)SECN75-63W100%0.0
11-28Georgia (81.2)SECH69-62W100%0.0
12-2George Washington (52.7)A10A72-64L0%0.0
12-5Rutgers (278.5)B10A55-84W100%0.0
12-10Troy (305.3)SBH78-69W100%0.0
12-13Saint Peter's (228.5)MAACH72-46W100%0.0
12-19Wichita St. (30.2)MVCH80-76W100%0.0
12-22South Florida (247.1)AmerH66-49W100%0.0
12-30Marquette (119.7)BEA63-83W100%0.0
1-2DePaul (165.2)BEH78-74W100%0.0
1-6Villanova (4.4)BEA72-63L0%0.0
1-9Creighton (92.8)BEH67-82L0%0.0
1-16Providence (41.1)BEA72-81W100%0.0
1-20Villanova (4.4)BEH71-72L0%0.0
1-23Xavier (7.6)BEA84-76L0%0.0
1-27St. John's (224.9)BEH79-60W100%0.0
1-30Creighton (92.8)BEA65-75W100%0.0
2-3Marquette (119.7)BEH79-62W100%0.0
2-6Georgetown (68.9)BEH0-069%5.3
2-10Butler (54.2)BEH0-052%0.7
2-17Georgetown (68.9)BEA0-045%-1.4
2-21St. John's (224.9)BEA0-084%10.6
2-25Providence (41.1)BEH0-066%4.4
2-28Xavier (7.6)BEH0-043%-1.9
3-2Butler (54.2)BEA0-029%-5.9
3-5DePaul (165.2)BEA0-071%6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.4526.3270.8366.8811.028.88
St. John'sBE2.934.2628.5725.56-1.26-2.08
CreightonBE4.964.2461.9059.681.180.82
DePaulBE2.674.2338.1036.43-0.64-1.15
GeorgetownBE0.664.2156.5254.170.090.35
MarquetteBE4.904.2171.4360.432.100.88
ProvidenceBE2.734.2181.8275.741.742.17
VillanovaBE4.994.2185.0084.323.502.89
ButlerBE0.614.2068.1867.020.221.43
XavierBE2.734.2090.4884.862.212.93
George WashingtonA102.481.8176.1970.721.300.75
RutgersB102.471.8023.8121.40-1.30-1.03
MississippiSEC2.441.7866.6757.920.810.28
BradleyMVC2.431.759.0910.11-1.99-1.40
South FloridaAmer2.381.7221.7420.78-1.35-1.01
WagnerNEC2.321.7265.0065.710.700.54
Wichita St.MVC2.371.7280.0082.591.421.12
GeorgiaSEC2.321.7263.1658.080.610.28
TroySB2.371.7221.0524.61-1.37-0.87
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.321.6940.0043.47-0.46-0.22
DartmouthIvy2.271.6735.2933.24-0.67-0.56
Long Beach St.BW2.271.6740.0049.59-0.45-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.260.2285.7176.030.190.12
BrownIvy0.100.2033.3331.83-0.03-0.07
BryantNEC0.170.2026.0927.58-0.08-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.200.1973.9173.090.090.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.260.1752.3853.820.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1779.1780.770.090.11
DrakeMVC0.160.1722.7324.85-0.08-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.050.1754.5555.310.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1740.9138.03-0.03-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.210.1773.9176.040.100.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.1740.9139.22-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1742.8637.19-0.01-0.04
MissouriSEC0.220.1736.3630.98-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.050.1661.9058.420.010.03
IUPUISum0.200.1641.6740.25-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.250.1652.1751.560.010.01
MassachusettsA100.250.1642.8639.84-0.04-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.210.1434.7841.59-0.07-0.02
RiderMAAC0.210.1441.6743.51-0.04-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.160.1457.1452.310.020.01
StanfordP120.220.1452.6347.690.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1450.0048.260.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.260.1481.8276.020.160.07
IndianaB100.200.1482.6177.370.130.08
NJITASun0.150.1452.1754.520.010.01
WisconsinB100.150.1460.8755.900.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.170.1252.1752.980.010.01
HarvardIvy0.180.1236.8441.45-0.05-0.02
PennIvy0.170.1235.2934.69-0.05-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1225.0025.48-0.05-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1252.1754.140.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1275.0073.480.080.05
Illinois St.MVC0.050.1252.1747.620.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.170.1126.0926.47-0.08-0.05
MaineAE0.220.1136.3635.58-0.06-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.170.1190.0086.120.130.08
IowaB100.200.1181.8279.900.130.07
FloridaSEC0.110.1168.1867.800.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.1159.0962.730.010.03
George MasonA100.160.1136.3635.33-0.04-0.03
ArizonaP120.150.1178.2677.230.090.06
Penn St.B100.100.1147.8343.63-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.210.1163.6459.440.060.02
Chicago St.WAC0.150.114.557.91-0.14-0.09
IllinoisB100.100.1147.8344.51-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1182.6181.380.070.07
SyracuseACC0.050.1166.6762.710.020.03
DelawareCAA0.200.1122.7323.64-0.11-0.06
Arizona St.P120.200.1152.1750.240.010.00
OklahomaB120.200.1190.4884.890.160.08
CornellIvy0.120.0944.4441.14-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0970.5974.500.020.04
CanisiusMAAC0.120.0941.6743.85-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.0950.0050.860.000.00
MaristMAAC0.170.0919.0521.40-0.11-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.0925.0029.52-0.06-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.0913.6413.80-0.08-0.06
USCP120.110.0978.2673.130.060.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0965.0068.750.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0836.8437.30-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.0861.1158.300.020.01
MichiganB100.100.0872.7367.980.050.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0866.6763.480.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0882.6178.230.030.05
Wake ForestACC0.100.0845.4542.14-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0872.7369.920.020.03
Georgia TechACC0.160.0854.5552.750.010.00
KentuckySEC0.100.0872.7369.690.050.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0842.8641.75-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.160.0830.0029.46-0.06-0.03
DaytonA100.100.0885.7181.220.070.05
FordhamA100.100.0857.8954.300.020.01
MarylandB100.050.0886.9681.770.040.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0872.7372.440.000.04
La SalleA100.100.0821.0520.91-0.06-0.05
MemphisAmer0.100.0859.0958.550.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0854.5555.990.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0881.8277.440.070.04
UCFAmer0.150.0855.0047.170.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.0064.310.020.02
YaleIvy0.000.0672.2273.760.000.03
IonaMAAC0.110.0659.0959.680.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0641.6746.85-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0638.1037.53-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.0631.8235.16-0.04-0.02
SienaMAAC0.110.0666.6767.290.040.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.110.0633.3332.88-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0627.2730.43-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0631.5836.16-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0630.0028.61-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0683.3380.130.040.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0657.8961.920.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0650.0045.730.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0635.0034.93-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.1840.28-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0636.8434.20-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0647.8343.92-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0640.0049.74-0.02-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.8432.84-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.110.0623.8125.26-0.06-0.03
Saint LouisA100.110.0638.1033.38-0.03-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0663.6459.950.010.01
ClemsonACC0.110.0663.6462.340.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0054.850.000.01
Kansas St.B120.110.0659.0955.550.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0681.8281.010.040.03
UABCUSA0.100.0681.8278.320.070.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0668.1863.250.020.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.267.22-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0653.3355.180.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0680.9575.640.000.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0628.5728.88-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0626.0927.81-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0638.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0630.0032.46-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0658.3354.120.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0618.1822.83-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0615.7916.39-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.0635.0031.39-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0620.8325.01-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.000.0616.6718.97-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0635.0036.57-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0654.5555.190.000.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0563.6457.330.030.01
AkronMAC0.100.0581.8279.750.070.03
BelmontOVC0.100.0569.5770.030.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0531.8226.61-0.02-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0536.3642.19-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.0515.7922.51-0.07-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0557.8955.400.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0566.6758.760.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0545.4541.98-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0557.1457.930.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.0516.6720.71-0.07-0.03
HoustonAmer0.090.0572.7368.010.040.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0550.0056.540.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0527.2732.84-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0526.3227.34-0.05-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0552.3853.620.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0552.3853.680.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0525.0022.58-0.05-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0590.4885.550.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.0525.0029.75-0.05-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0547.6257.27-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0533.3332.41-0.03-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0563.6465.480.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0575.0071.280.000.02
UTSACUSA0.100.0514.2913.97-0.07-0.04
VCUA100.000.0577.2776.780.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.0527.7829.23-0.04-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0365.0067.510.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0319.0522.35-0.04-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0352.6351.510.000.00
VermontAE0.060.0356.5258.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0345.0043.19-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0357.8956.110.010.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
UtahP120.050.0372.7368.550.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0376.1967.350.030.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0385.7184.560.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0350.0048.750.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0357.1457.940.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.210.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.210.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.100.010.00
SamfordSC0.060.0340.9143.37-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0333.3333.64-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0365.0063.370.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0361.9058.190.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0366.6766.030.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0316.6724.27-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0344.4446.94-0.01-0.00
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.9175.010.020.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0352.1754.400.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0375.0072.220.030.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0318.7526.09-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0370.0069.070.000.01