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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:76.8
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:36
Current SOS:175
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:90
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-619.00.02%
23-717.20.18%
22-822.00.62%
21-928.01.48%
20-1035.94.46%
19-1144.28.56%
18-1254.613.86%
17-1366.217.79%
16-1479.519.25%
15-1593.315.30%
14-16107.79.89%
13-17123.85.52%
12-18140.82.20%
11-19153.90.66%
10-20173.80.17%
9-21208.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fairleigh Dickinson (267.1)NECH91-70W100%0.0
11-13Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH82-58W100%0.0
11-17Iowa (164.3)B10A83-91W100%0.0
11-24Florida (9.6)SECN81-76L0%0.0
11-25Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACN90-79W100%0.0
11-27Stanford (54.1)P12N52-66L0%0.0
12-1Columbia (253.3)IvyH95-71W100%0.0
12-6Hawaii (274.4)BWN0-086%13.1
12-7California (68.2)P12N0-051%0.2
12-12South Carolina (17.4)SECN0-030%-6.4
12-17Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-092%17.1
12-23Rutgers (182.4)B10H0-084%11.9
12-28Creighton (25.4)BEA0-021%-9.6
1-1Marquette (60.1)BEH0-048%-0.6
1-7DePaul (206.1)BEH0-087%13.5
1-11Marquette (60.1)BEA0-029%-6.8
1-14Providence (75.1)BEA0-042%-2.4
1-16Villanova (7.4)BEA0-012%-14.1
1-22St. John's (167.9)BEH0-077%9.0
1-25Butler (14.7)BEH0-037%-4.0
2-1Xavier (11.9)BEA0-019%-10.5
2-4Georgetown (104.0)BEA0-043%-2.2
2-8Providence (75.1)BEH0-062%3.8
2-11St. John's (167.9)BEA0-059%2.8
2-15Creighton (25.4)BEH0-039%-3.4
2-18Villanova (7.4)BEH0-026%-7.9
2-22Xavier (11.9)BEH0-036%-4.3
2-25DePaul (206.1)BEA0-073%7.3
2-28Georgetown (104.0)BEH0-063%4.0
3-4Butler (14.7)BEA0-020%-10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE28.9426.3367.7452.0310.271.07
DePaulBE0.004.2380.0037.100.00-1.09
GeorgetownBE0.004.2150.0047.580.00-0.20
ProvidenceBE0.004.2171.4356.860.000.58
St. John'sBE0.004.2128.5734.07-0.00-1.34
VillanovaBE0.004.21100.0083.260.002.80
XavierBE0.004.21100.0074.950.002.10
ButlerBE0.004.20100.0075.990.002.19
CreightonBE0.004.20100.0077.130.002.28
MarquetteBE0.004.2071.4363.190.001.11
RutgersB100.001.8383.3345.750.00-0.16
Central ConnecticutNEC7.141.7550.0038.990.00-0.39
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC7.141.7525.0035.48-3.57-0.51
CaliforniaP120.001.7283.3364.100.000.49
FloridaSEC7.141.7285.7174.505.100.84
IowaB107.141.7250.0045.810.00-0.14
StanfordP127.141.7271.4357.643.060.26
South CarolinaSEC0.001.72100.0081.140.001.07
QuinnipiacMAAC7.651.7020.0035.49-4.59-0.49
ColumbiaIvy7.741.6950.0044.170.00-0.20
DelawareCAA0.001.6740.0041.82-0.00-0.27
HawaiiBW0.001.6750.0052.430.000.08
WisconsinB100.000.2575.0073.840.000.12
UtahP120.000.2275.0061.040.000.05
NorthwesternB100.000.1971.4366.220.000.06
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1957.1448.860.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.1750.0042.420.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1725.0039.28-0.00-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1740.0043.86-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1783.3357.990.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1716.6729.36-0.00-0.07
WagnerNEC0.000.1733.3353.85-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.1785.7170.990.000.07
Arizona St.P120.000.1757.1436.050.00-0.05
ColoradoP120.000.1771.4359.850.000.03
OregonP120.000.1771.4366.730.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1666.6754.380.000.01
VermontAE0.600.1662.5071.630.150.07
MarylandB100.000.1685.7156.490.000.02
VirginiaACC0.510.16100.0082.550.510.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.450.1516.6743.29-0.30-0.02
PennIvy0.710.1540.0057.97-0.140.02
MaineAE0.710.1416.6725.61-0.48-0.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1416.6736.35-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.140.0038.26-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.710.1457.1443.680.10-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1485.7180.960.000.09
Ohio St.B100.000.1485.7172.660.000.06
MichiganB100.000.1471.4366.530.000.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1471.4346.010.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.1450.0043.610.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1460.0051.780.000.00
Penn St.B100.000.1462.5043.960.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1471.4374.450.000.07
SyracuseACC0.000.1466.6770.140.000.05
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1340.0057.49-0.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0063.95-0.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.1233.3364.14-0.000.03
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5750.20-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1212.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1242.8638.05-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.890.1271.4365.740.380.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.05
DrexelCAA0.000.1142.8636.82-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1128.5723.76-0.00-0.06
Indiana St.MVC1.040.1133.3346.81-0.35-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.1150.0036.820.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1162.5056.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.1183.3358.030.000.02
IndianaB100.000.1183.3375.060.000.06
BuffaloMAC0.000.1140.0050.91-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.1171.4363.570.000.03
MemphisAmer0.510.1185.7159.740.360.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1150.0061.590.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1185.7165.670.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1150.0045.920.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1171.4352.370.000.01
HarvardIvy0.450.090.0043.04-0.45-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0933.3335.92-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0957.1448.410.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.690.000.01
HofstraCAA0.510.0957.1440.550.07-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0957.1440.590.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0054.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.510.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.710.0960.0052.760.140.00
HartfordAE0.710.0812.5022.55-0.54-0.05
MaristMAAC0.000.0842.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.600.0871.4371.570.260.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0816.6727.03-0.00-0.04
WyomingMWC0.000.0860.0048.590.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.710.0842.8640.94-0.10-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0871.4343.020.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0825.0034.47-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.0883.3362.840.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0866.6753.460.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.0857.1442.660.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.08100.0086.250.000.06
Notre DameACC0.510.08100.0075.010.510.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0023.47-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat1.220.0633.3345.58-0.41-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.510.0616.6733.82-0.34-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0660.0039.610.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0642.8647.69-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0633.3340.49-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0685.7155.550.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0650.0038.430.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0566.6756.020.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0583.3355.200.000.01
GonzagaWCC1.040.05100.0091.061.040.04
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.770.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0566.6766.100.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0516.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0585.7168.390.000.02
BaylorB120.000.05100.0074.460.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0516.6731.91-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.050.0018.22-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0566.6751.460.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0528.5734.18-0.00-0.02
LafayettePat0.000.0533.3331.87-0.00-0.02
LehighPat0.000.0533.3367.01-0.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0583.3358.080.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0550.0057.480.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0550.0061.810.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0583.3356.560.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0566.6765.810.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0571.4370.330.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0514.2926.81-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0583.3374.620.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0566.6758.420.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0533.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0585.7178.150.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0516.6736.45-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.510.0320.0041.31-0.31-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.710.0314.2933.07-0.51-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.450.0383.3361.490.300.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.450.03100.0089.040.450.02
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0325.0040.81-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.450.0320.0054.94-0.270.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
BelmontOVC0.450.0340.0061.37-0.090.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.450.0350.0071.330.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.0328.5730.29-0.22-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
MercerSC0.450.0350.0053.050.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.450.0314.2931.71-0.32-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0383.3351.920.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.510.030.0024.19-0.51-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.450.0366.6770.740.150.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.510.0325.0024.28-0.26-0.01