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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:38.0
Current RPI:23
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:110
Current Record:9-1
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:28
Expected OOC SOS:179



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-35.00.05%
26-47.90.27%
25-510.71.08%
24-614.03.31%
23-718.27.48%
22-822.213.10%
21-928.218.85%
20-1035.820.30%
19-1145.815.61%
18-1257.710.87%
17-1372.46.15%
16-1486.82.20%
15-15104.50.57%
14-16124.00.12%
13-17138.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Mercer (243.7)SCH63-47W100%0.0
11-21Nevada (283.3)MWCN60-68W100%0.0
11-23Gardner Webb (166.3)BSthN85-67W100%0.0
11-24Illinois St. (83.8)MVCN80-84W100%0.0
11-29George Washington (76.4)A10H58-54W100%0.0
12-2Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECH78-55W100%0.0
12-6Rutgers (172.3)B10H81-54W100%0.0
12-9Wichita St. (19.1)MVCA77-68L0%0.0
12-14Saint Peter's (222.9)MAACH67-52W100%0.0
12-18South Florida (193.8)AmerA69-89W100%0.0
12-21Georgia (54.3)SECA0-039%-3.3
12-27Maine (323.2)AEH0-099%26.7
12-31St. John's (41.5)BEH0-065%4.5
1-3Villanova (14.8)BEH0-047%-1.0
1-7Xavier (27.1)BEA0-028%-6.9
1-10Creighton (113.1)BEA0-055%1.5
1-13Butler (36.1)BEH0-056%1.8
1-22DePaul (197.3)BEH0-090%15.2
1-25Butler (36.1)BEA0-029%-6.6
1-28Marquette (100.7)BEA0-053%0.9
1-31Xavier (27.1)BEH0-055%1.4
2-3DePaul (197.3)BEA0-072%6.9
2-7Marquette (100.7)BEH0-079%9.3
2-10Georgetown (47.0)BEH0-065%4.5
2-14Providence (64.0)BEA0-044%-1.7
2-16Villanova (14.8)BEA0-021%-9.4
2-21St. John's (41.5)BEA0-037%-3.9
2-28Creighton (113.1)BEH0-080%9.9
3-4Providence (64.0)BEH0-071%6.6
3-7Georgetown (47.0)BEA0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE27.6926.3392.5067.9823.549.47
ButlerBE0.004.3072.7368.670.001.61
DePaulBE0.534.2760.0035.300.11-1.25
GeorgetownBE0.004.2670.0059.980.000.85
ProvidenceBE0.004.2275.0058.440.000.71
VillanovaBE0.004.22100.0084.130.002.88
XavierBE0.004.2272.7368.200.001.53
CreightonBE0.004.2275.0053.500.000.29
MarquetteBE0.004.2160.0050.040.000.00
St. John'sBE0.004.2188.8966.330.001.38
Illinois St.MVC5.001.7966.6763.801.670.49
George WashingtonA105.231.7575.0067.832.610.62
Wichita St.MVC5.001.7285.7184.923.571.20
RutgersB105.511.7260.0033.671.10-0.56
MaineAE0.001.7211.1121.50-0.00-0.98
GeorgiaSEC0.001.7062.5058.980.000.30
MercerSC5.001.6950.0045.590.00-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC5.231.6940.0049.78-1.05-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth5.001.6742.8652.24-0.710.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.001.6737.5042.67-1.25-0.24
NevadaMWC5.001.6712.5026.43-3.75-0.79
South FloridaAmer5.001.6744.4442.75-0.56-0.24
NJITind0.000.2241.6743.68-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.280.1936.3650.71-0.080.00
DrakeMVC0.000.1818.1819.46-0.00-0.11
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1730.0029.75-0.00-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.230.1737.5039.65-0.06-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.1755.5646.290.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.1681.8263.330.000.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.1430.0043.15-0.09-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1433.3345.04-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.560.1466.6754.130.190.01
TulsaAmer0.310.1460.0056.620.060.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.140.0011.24-0.00-0.11
VCUA100.250.1472.7375.740.110.07
WisconsinB100.000.1490.9188.840.000.11
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1440.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.1433.3355.24-0.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.250.1466.6764.770.080.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1233.3334.04-0.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1277.7872.060.000.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1275.0058.760.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1233.3337.22-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1290.9183.090.000.08
RadfordBSth0.000.1255.5658.650.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1254.5544.930.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1130.0039.59-0.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1140.0055.01-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.110.0011.59-0.00-0.09
LehighPat0.000.1144.4454.06-0.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.1188.8955.860.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1180.0067.830.000.04
La SalleA100.230.1154.5552.730.020.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1150.0039.790.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0096.290.000.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1170.0052.600.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.230.1112.5029.51-0.17-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1162.5058.080.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.1160.0058.120.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1163.6456.430.000.01
MichiganB100.000.1150.0040.450.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.1170.0062.710.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.280.0920.0025.85-0.17-0.04
FurmanSC0.310.0922.2231.81-0.17-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.560.0990.0082.310.450.06
Colorado St.MWC0.280.09100.0078.210.280.05
Utah St.MWC0.250.0954.5548.260.02-0.00
ClemsonACC0.820.0960.0043.890.16-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.280.0954.5564.070.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8633.27-0.00-0.03
UMBCAE0.280.0918.1825.30-0.18-0.04
VMISC0.280.0933.3338.93-0.09-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0912.5030.56-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.0944.4455.37-0.030.01
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6758.000.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0963.6465.220.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0866.6759.370.000.02
HartfordAE0.230.0850.0050.620.000.00
New HampshireAE0.230.0850.0060.410.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0855.5660.980.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.230.0855.5665.210.030.03
FordhamA100.000.0828.5727.11-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.510.0854.5559.560.050.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0880.0053.260.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0890.9190.540.000.07
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.600.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.280.0840.0036.66-0.06-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0833.3328.79-0.09-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.280.0833.3328.13-0.09-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.0838.4644.61-0.06-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0854.5552.490.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.250.0860.0065.120.050.02
Notre DameACC0.280.0891.6777.120.230.04
Penn St.B100.280.0891.6755.310.230.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0844.4450.60-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0866.6773.310.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0860.0043.160.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0866.6767.300.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0881.8282.250.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.230.0866.6758.210.080.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0870.0064.680.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.250.0854.5541.980.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0840.0032.26-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.230.0840.0033.80-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0875.0065.140.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.230.0830.0038.01-0.09-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0850.0058.370.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6744.720.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0863.6442.810.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.51-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.520.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2944.44-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.27-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.590.06100.0082.630.590.04
Saint LouisA100.310.0660.0033.270.06-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0627.2729.17-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0672.7372.580.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
DetroitHorz0.560.0640.0048.02-0.11-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.560.0610.0018.05-0.45-0.04
LSUSEC0.310.0680.0063.910.190.02
MemphisAmer0.310.0660.0062.070.060.01
PacificWCC0.560.0655.5638.270.06-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.530.0637.5044.33-0.13-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5745.89-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0620.0027.29-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.280.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.06-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.86-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0630.0031.48-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.700.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3330.28-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.320.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.30-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2932.16-0.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0660.0047.170.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0650.0050.490.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0620.0040.93-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0677.7875.550.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0670.0061.320.000.01
UABCUSA0.500.0630.0036.69-0.20-0.02
VirginiaACC0.510.06100.0086.080.510.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.43-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.070.000.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.090.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0033.40-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.710.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0666.6766.010.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0563.6464.880.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.230.0555.5662.150.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.050.0017.69-0.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.050.008.56-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0540.0043.04-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0540.0037.64-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0577.7870.160.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0560.0069.200.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0527.2728.86-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.059.0916.15-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0590.9168.230.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0581.8266.010.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0550.0047.880.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0520.0022.16-0.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0572.7374.850.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0550.0071.260.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0542.8636.81-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0536.3648.28-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0537.5032.63-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0550.0053.250.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0554.5557.570.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0533.3349.54-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0527.2738.30-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0566.6778.020.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0533.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0560.0071.280.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0566.6761.820.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.310.0345.4545.10-0.03-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.39-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.40-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.310.0333.3361.74-0.100.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.008.60-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.310.0380.0080.520.190.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0377.7872.890.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.280.0337.5041.94-0.07-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.0336.3637.85-0.08-0.01
CaliforniaP120.280.0390.9169.030.230.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.53-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0372.7362.220.000.01
AmericanPat0.280.0363.6463.240.080.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0318.1830.76-0.18-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.530.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.280.030.009.06-0.28-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.190.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.280.0316.6726.98-0.19-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.280.0337.5063.95-0.070.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0381.8273.180.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.280.0345.4537.60-0.03-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.0345.4543.23-0.02-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.200.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0366.6762.580.080.01
HofstraCAA0.250.0370.0076.180.100.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.0316.6743.20-0.17-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0363.6440.190.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.0375.0061.480.130.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.74-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3339.85-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.230.0330.0041.69-0.09-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0366.6759.420.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.230.0333.3341.02-0.08-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.230.030.0015.00-0.23-0.02