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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:67
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:35
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-1597.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Mercer (212.0)SCH63-47W100%0.0
11-21Nevada (306.0)MWCN60-68W100%0.0
11-23Gardner Webb (146.0)BSthN85-67W100%0.0
11-24Illinois St. (62.0)MVCN80-84W100%0.0
11-29George Washington (84.0)A10H58-54W100%0.0
12-2Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH78-55W100%0.0
12-6Rutgers (178.0)B10H81-54W100%0.0
12-9Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA77-68L0%0.0
12-14Saint Peter's (233.0)MAACH67-52W100%0.0
12-18South Florida (273.0)AmerA69-89W100%0.0
12-21Georgia (38.0)SECA65-47L0%0.0
12-27Maine (339.0)AEH72-43W100%0.0
12-31St. John's (44.0)BEH78-67W100%0.0
1-3Villanova (3.0)BEH66-61W100%0.0
1-7Xavier (30.0)BEA69-58L0%0.0
1-10Creighton (151.0)BEA67-68W100%0.0
1-13Butler (31.0)BEH75-79L0%0.0
1-22DePaul (197.0)BEH60-64L0%0.0
1-25Butler (31.0)BEA77-57L0%0.0
1-28Marquette (147.0)BEA70-80W100%0.0
1-31Xavier (30.0)BEH90-82W100%0.0
2-3DePaul (197.0)BEA75-62L0%0.0
2-7Marquette (147.0)BEH54-57L0%0.0
2-10Georgetown (25.0)BEH67-86L0%0.0
2-14Providence (22.0)BEA69-62L0%0.0
2-16Villanova (3.0)BEA80-54L0%0.0
2-21St. John's (44.0)BEA85-72L0%0.0
2-28Creighton (151.0)BEH67-66W100%0.0
3-4Providence (22.0)BEH66-79L0%0.0
3-7Georgetown (25.0)BEA73-67L0%0.0
3-11Marquette (147.0)BEN56-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.3326.3349.6249.62-0.20-0.20
MarquetteBE5.685.6837.9337.93-1.37-1.37
VillanovaBE4.254.2596.8896.883.983.98
XavierBE4.234.2362.5062.501.061.06
GeorgetownBE4.214.2165.5265.521.311.31
ButlerBE4.204.2066.6766.671.401.40
CreightonBE4.184.1845.1645.16-0.40-0.40
ProvidenceBE4.174.1764.5264.521.211.21
DePaulBE4.174.1733.3333.33-1.39-1.39
St. John'sBE4.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
Illinois St.MVC1.741.7464.5264.520.510.51
George WashingtonA101.711.7165.6265.620.540.54
Wichita St.MVC1.711.7186.6786.671.261.26
MaineAE1.661.6610.3410.34-1.32-1.32
RutgersB101.661.6632.2632.26-0.59-0.59
GeorgiaSEC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
MercerSC1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.641.6448.4848.48-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
NevadaMWC1.611.6125.0025.00-0.81-0.81
South FloridaAmer1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
NJITind0.230.2356.0056.000.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
WisconsinB100.150.1591.1891.180.130.13
DrakeMVC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
AlbanyAE0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
MinnesotaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.100.10
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
FurmanSC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ColoradoP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
TempleAmer0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.00100.000.100.10
MississippiSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
La SalleA100.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
OhioMAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02