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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:19.0
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:42
Current Record:25-8
Expected Record:25-8
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:65
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-819.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Dartmouth (284.0)IvyH84-67W100%0.0
11-15Wagner (185.0)NECH69-59W100%0.0
11-19Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN77-80L0%0.0
11-20Bradley (306.0)MVCN59-67W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi (96.0)SECN75-63W100%0.0
11-28Georgia (62.0)SECH69-62W100%0.0
12-2George Washington (68.0)A10A72-64L0%0.0
12-5Rutgers (294.0)B10A55-84W100%0.0
12-10Troy (293.0)SBH78-69W100%0.0
12-13Saint Peter's (208.0)MAACH72-46W100%0.0
12-19Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH80-76W100%0.0
12-22South Florida (230.0)AmerH66-49W100%0.0
12-30Marquette (110.0)BEA63-83W100%0.0
1-2DePaul (198.0)BEH78-74W100%0.0
1-6Villanova (4.0)BEA72-63L0%0.0
1-9Creighton (100.0)BEH67-82L0%0.0
1-16Providence (40.0)BEA72-81W100%0.0
1-20Villanova (4.0)BEH71-72L0%0.0
1-23Xavier (7.0)BEA84-76L0%0.0
1-27St. John's (246.0)BEH79-60W100%0.0
1-30Creighton (100.0)BEA65-75W100%0.0
2-3Marquette (110.0)BEH79-62W100%0.0
2-6Georgetown (106.0)BEH69-61W100%0.0
2-10Butler (57.0)BEH75-81L0%0.0
2-17Georgetown (106.0)BEA64-72W100%0.0
2-21St. John's (246.0)BEA61-62W100%0.0
2-25Providence (40.0)BEH70-52W100%0.0
2-28Xavier (7.0)BEH90-81W100%0.0
3-2Butler (57.0)BEA85-78L0%0.0
3-5DePaul (198.0)BEA66-80W100%0.0
3-10Creighton (100.0)BEN81-73W100%0.0
3-11Xavier (7.0)BEN83-87W100%0.0
3-12Villanova (4.0)BEN67-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.4926.4974.8374.8313.1613.16
VillanovaBE5.495.4987.1087.104.074.07
XavierBE5.445.4489.6689.664.314.31
CreightonBE5.415.4158.6258.620.930.93
MarquetteBE4.044.0464.5264.521.171.17
GeorgetownBE4.044.0448.3948.39-0.13-0.13
ProvidenceBE4.044.0474.1974.191.961.96
St. John'sBE4.014.0124.1424.14-2.08-2.08
DePaulBE3.993.9931.0331.03-1.51-1.51
ButlerBE3.963.9665.5265.521.231.23
RutgersB101.661.6620.0020.00-0.99-0.99
George WashingtonA101.641.6468.7568.750.610.61
MississippiSEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
BradleyMVC1.591.5913.3313.33-1.16-1.16
South FloridaAmer1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
WagnerNEC1.561.5670.0070.000.630.63
Wichita St.MVC1.561.5676.6776.670.830.83
GeorgiaSEC1.561.5661.2961.290.350.35
TroySB1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.541.5448.2848.28-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
Long Beach St.BW1.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2245.1645.16-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.220.2274.1974.190.100.10
NebraskaB100.210.2147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
TempleAmer0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
BrownIvy0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
BryantNEC0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
IUPUISum0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
IndianaB100.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
StanfordP120.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1472.7372.730.070.07
VirginiaACC0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
OklahomaB120.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1239.3939.39-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
DelawareCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
HarvardIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1087.1087.100.080.08
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.09-0.09
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
SyracuseACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
George MasonA100.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FordhamA100.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0729.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
YaleIvy0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01