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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:64
Current Record:15-18
Expected Record:15-18
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-18138.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH75-36W100%0.0
11-12Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH78-65W100%0.0
11-17Washington (88.0)P12N84-73L0%0.0
11-18Rhode Island (201.0)A10N60-55W100%0.0
11-21Maine (267.0)AEH76-49W100%0.0
11-25St. Peter's (290.0)MAACH76-61W100%0.0
11-29Louisiana St. (86.0)SECA72-67L0%0.0
12-4NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)GWCH68-59W100%0.0
12-8Wake Forest (170.0)ACCA67-71W100%0.0
12-16North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH77-66W100%0.0
12-19Longwood (332.0)BSthH79-61W100%0.0
12-22Long Island (179.0)NECA58-89W100%0.0
12-28Stony Brook (81.0)AEH60-59W100%0.0
1-2DePaul (204.0)BEA72-73W100%0.0
1-5Notre Dame (35.0)BEA93-74L0%0.0
1-9Louisville (3.0)BEH58-73L0%0.0
1-13Providence (91.0)BEH55-67L0%0.0
1-16Marquette (13.0)BEA69-62L0%0.0
1-23South Florida (156.0)BEH55-47W100%0.0
1-27St. John's (96.0)BEA71-67L0%0.0
1-30Georgetown (11.0)BEA74-52L0%0.0
2-2Cincinnati (50.0)BEH59-65L0%0.0
2-4Pittsburgh (44.0)BEA56-46L0%0.0
2-10Connecticut (49.0)BEH67-78L0%0.0
2-12Rutgers (109.0)BEA57-55L0%0.0
2-16Syracuse (14.0)BEH65-76L0%0.0
2-19Marquette (13.0)BEH46-67L0%0.0
2-23Louisville (3.0)BEA79-61L0%0.0
2-25Villanova (52.0)BEH66-65W100%0.0
3-5Providence (91.0)BEA76-66L0%0.0
3-8Rutgers (109.0)BEH51-56L0%0.0
3-12South Florida (156.0)BEN46-42W100%0.0
3-13Syracuse (14.0)BEN75-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.0826.0841.5041.50-4.44-4.44
SyracuseBE3.693.6972.7372.731.681.68
LouisvilleBE3.693.6984.3884.382.542.54
ProvidenceBE3.633.6351.7251.720.130.13
MarquetteBE3.603.6072.4172.411.611.61
RutgersBE3.603.6044.8344.83-0.37-0.37
South FloridaBE3.603.6041.3841.38-0.62-0.62
VillanovaBE2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
Notre DameBE2.222.2272.7372.731.011.01
GeorgetownBE2.222.2280.0080.001.331.33
CincinnatiBE2.182.1865.6265.620.680.68
ConnecticutBE2.182.1865.5265.520.680.68
St. John'sBE2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghBE2.132.1374.1974.191.031.03
DePaulBE2.112.1135.4835.48-0.61-0.61
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC1.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Stony BrookAE1.591.5979.3179.310.930.93
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.591.5954.5554.550.140.14
Rhode IslandA101.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
St. Peter'sMAAC1.591.5931.0331.03-0.60-0.60
Missouri Kansas CitySum1.581.5823.3323.33-0.84-0.84
MaineAE1.571.5735.7135.71-0.45-0.45
Louisiana St.SEC1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
LongwoodBSth1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
Long IslandNEC1.541.5462.5062.500.390.39
Wake ForestACC1.541.5443.3343.33-0.21-0.21
WashingtonP121.541.5453.1253.120.100.10
AlbanyAE0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
Boston UniversityAE0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
ColgatePat0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.177.147.14-0.14-0.14
Houston BaptistGWC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
VermontAE0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
IonaMAAC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MonmouthNEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
RiderMAAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
BrownIvy0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
QuinnipiacNEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
WagnerNEC0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
MaristMAAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
MissouriSEC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
TempleA100.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
DetroitHorz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
SienaMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LafayettePat0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
ButlerA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
George MasonCAA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
XavierA100.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
High PointBSth0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
College of CharlestonSC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Washington St.P120.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
New Orleansind0.060.0618.1818.18-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.040.0456.2556.250.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
MemphisCUSA0.040.0488.2488.240.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
SamfordSC0.040.0432.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0428.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0456.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia St.CAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0242.3142.31-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
NebraskaB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0270.3770.370.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0253.8553.850.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UtahP120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0257.6957.690.000.00
Texas TechB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01