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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:93
Current SOS:93
Current Record:17-17
Expected Record:17-17
Current Conf Record:8-13
Expected Conf Record:8-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:207
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-17128.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Niagara (302.0)MAACH83-72W100%0.0
11-13Kent St. (213.0)MACH78-76W100%0.0
11-16Mercer (81.0)ASunA77-74L0%0.0
11-18Monmouth (292.0)MAACH82-66W100%0.0
11-22Oklahoma (26.0)B12N85-86L0%0.0
11-23Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCN68-67W100%0.0
12-1Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH54-58L0%0.0
12-5LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH92-81W100%0.0
12-8Rutgers (192.0)AmerA71-77W100%0.0
12-10NJIT (308.0)indH71-55W100%0.0
12-14Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH80-83L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyH92-70W100%0.0
12-27Lafayette (258.0)PatH90-58W100%0.0
12-31Providence (40.0)BEA80-81W100%0.0
1-4Creighton (10.0)BEH66-79L0%0.0
1-8Villanova (5.0)BEH67-83L0%0.0
1-11Marquette (92.0)BEA67-66L0%0.0
1-18Georgetown (69.0)BEA57-67W100%0.0
1-23St. John's (67.0)BEA77-76L0%0.0
1-25DePaul (154.0)BEH86-69W100%0.0
1-29Butler (150.0)BEH57-64L0%0.0
2-1Xavier (47.0)BEA60-68W100%0.0
2-7Villanova (5.0)BEA70-53L0%0.0
2-11Marquette (92.0)BEH66-77L0%0.0
2-13St. John's (67.0)BEH67-68L0%0.0
2-20Georgetown (69.0)BEH82-67W100%0.0
2-23Creighton (10.0)BEA72-71L0%0.0
2-25DePaul (154.0)BEA65-60L0%0.0
2-28Providence (40.0)BEH69-74L0%0.0
3-3Xavier (47.0)BEH71-62W100%0.0
3-8Butler (150.0)BEA71-54L0%0.0
3-12Butler (150.0)BEN51-50W100%0.0
3-13Villanova (5.0)BEN63-64W100%0.0
3-14Providence (40.0)BEN80-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.4926.4945.6345.63-2.32-2.32
ProvidenceBE5.345.3467.7467.741.891.89
VillanovaBE5.265.2689.6689.664.174.17
ButlerBE5.265.2640.7440.74-0.97-0.97
CreightonBE3.973.9777.4277.422.182.18
DePaulBE3.913.9135.4835.48-1.13-1.13
XavierBE3.903.9066.6766.671.301.30
St. John'sBE3.903.9060.0060.000.780.78
MarquetteBE3.863.8650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE3.853.8558.6258.620.660.66
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
MonmouthMAAC1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
NJITind1.591.5937.5037.50-0.40-0.40
NiagaraMAAC1.591.5921.8821.88-0.89-0.89
LIU BrooklynNEC1.571.5732.1432.14-0.56-0.56
LafayettePat1.571.5734.4834.48-0.49-0.49
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.541.5428.5728.57-0.66-0.66
Kent St.MAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.501.5046.4346.43-0.11-0.11
RutgersAmer1.501.5035.4835.48-0.43-0.43
OklahomaB121.491.4970.9770.970.630.63
MercerASun1.491.4973.3373.330.700.70
Virginia TechACC1.471.4730.0030.00-0.59-0.59
RiderMAAC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.230.2321.8821.88-0.13-0.13
MaristMAAC0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
PennIvy0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
KansasB120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.150.1570.5970.590.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
IowaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
SyracuseACC0.140.1484.3884.380.100.10
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.140.1451.8551.850.010.01
Arizona St.P120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
La SalleA100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
BucknellPat0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.110.1169.7069.700.050.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ArmyPat0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
ColgatePat0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
VCUA100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
BuffaloMAC0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.030.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0480.6580.650.030.03
UMKCWAC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.04100.00100.000.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VMIBSth0.020.0255.5655.560.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00