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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Seton Hall

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:53.1
Current RPI:32
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:11
Current Record:15-8
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.93%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:18
Expected OOC SOS:106



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-825.31.88%
21-933.111.10%
20-1042.325.38%
19-1153.431.45%
18-1265.820.77%
17-1379.57.78%
16-1492.71.50%
15-15105.90.13%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Seton Hall.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12St. Francis NY (188.7)NECH75-71W100%0.0
11-17Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAN69-54W100%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (49.2)A10N78-70W100%0.0
11-20Northwestern (66.2)B10N73-80L0%0.0
11-22Yale (117.5)IvyH73-62W100%0.0
11-26St. Peter's (280.4)MAACH63-54W100%0.0
12-2Auburn (147.6)SECH81-59W100%0.0
12-6NJ Inst of Technology (294.9)GWCH78-48W100%0.0
12-10Wake Forest (171.6)ACCH68-54W100%0.0
12-18Mercer (98.0)ASunH80-77W100%0.0
12-21Dayton (77.1)A10A64-69W100%0.0
12-23Longwood (311.5)indA61-87W100%0.0
12-28Syracuse (2.1)BEA75-49L0%0.0
12-30West Virginia (31.4)BEH67-48W100%0.0
1-3Connecticut (27.1)BEH75-63W100%0.0
1-7Providence (146.8)BEA57-66W100%0.0
1-10DePaul (187.2)BEH94-73W100%0.0
1-13South Florida (96.1)BEA56-55L0%0.0
1-18Villanova (98.5)BEA84-76L0%0.0
1-25Notre Dame (66.5)BEH42-55L0%0.0
1-28Louisville (25.3)BEH51-60L0%0.0
1-31Marquette (15.5)BEA66-59L0%0.0
2-4Connecticut (27.1)BEA69-46L0%0.0
2-8Rutgers (141.7)BEA0-051%0.4
2-12Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH0-064%4.0
2-14St. John's (151.1)BEH0-082%10.1
2-18Cincinnati (89.8)BEA0-035%-4.2
2-21Georgetown (13.9)BEH0-038%-3.4
2-25Rutgers (141.7)BEH0-074%7.1
3-3DePaul (187.2)BEA0-067%4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Seton Hall's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Seton Hall's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Seton Hall.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Seton HallBE26.2226.0064.2162.217.456.35
RutgersBE0.493.8650.0047.480.00-0.19
ConnecticutBE4.543.8270.0064.991.821.15
DePaulBE2.373.8252.3844.720.11-0.40
St. John'sBE0.532.2743.4841.02-0.07-0.41
Notre DameBE2.562.2763.6461.410.700.52
South FloridaBE2.602.2752.3846.830.12-0.14
GeorgetownBE0.452.2480.9577.950.281.25
LouisvilleBE2.412.2477.2771.741.320.97
SyracuseBE2.512.2495.6591.742.291.87
VillanovaBE2.552.2442.8644.22-0.36-0.26
West VirginiaBE2.372.2468.1867.350.860.78
MarquetteBE2.512.2278.2675.181.421.12
ProvidenceBE2.412.2259.0951.950.440.09
CincinnatiBE0.342.2169.5765.490.130.69
PittsburghBE0.332.2160.8758.900.070.39
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC2.281.8435.2939.97-0.67-0.37
Longwoodind2.231.7331.5828.92-0.82-0.73
St. Francis NYNEC2.231.7359.0957.940.410.27
Wake ForestACC2.281.7350.0045.160.00-0.17
Saint Joseph'sA102.271.7265.2264.570.690.50
DaytonA102.271.7263.6463.060.620.45
AuburnSEC2.221.6959.0950.490.400.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.221.6983.3380.661.481.04
YaleIvy2.221.6976.4765.721.180.53
MercerASun2.171.6773.9174.111.040.80
NorthwesternB102.171.6760.0053.600.430.12
St. Peter'sMAAC2.171.6722.7325.43-1.19-0.82
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.300.208.7012.13-0.25-0.15
RichmondA100.140.1950.0048.490.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.160.1819.0524.61-0.10-0.09
DartmouthIvy0.160.1814.2917.17-0.12-0.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.150.1744.0045.89-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.200.1769.5761.310.080.04
FairfieldMAAC0.240.1754.5554.300.020.01
MississippiSEC0.190.1763.6456.710.050.02
Georgia TechACC0.190.1639.1342.12-0.04-0.03
Louisiana St.SEC0.140.1659.0957.280.030.02
BrownIvy0.270.1527.2723.80-0.12-0.08
Chicago St.GWC0.110.154.769.95-0.10-0.12
HarvardIvy0.200.1590.4887.910.170.11
PennsylvaniaIvy0.160.1554.5556.840.010.02
FloridaSEC0.110.1482.6177.630.070.08
AlabamaSEC0.090.1468.1869.100.030.05
WagnerNEC0.190.1482.6184.570.130.10
MonmouthNEC0.100.1428.0028.91-0.04-0.06
ArmyPat0.220.1240.9141.72-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1255.0054.800.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.110.1270.8371.050.040.05
PrincetonIvy0.060.1247.3752.87-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1268.0069.070.060.04
MassachusettsA100.110.1173.9168.580.050.04
BryantNEC0.200.118.3310.86-0.17-0.09
Holy CrossPat0.210.1140.9142.05-0.04-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.150.1120.8320.60-0.09-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1168.1869.680.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1169.5765.870.080.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1169.5765.150.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.190.1172.7371.710.090.05
Penn St.B100.150.1141.6738.67-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1117.3924.41-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1150.0058.160.000.02
St. LouisA100.140.1177.2777.670.080.06
TennesseeSEC0.150.1145.4544.66-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.140.1170.8368.820.060.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1139.1336.10-0.03-0.03
TempleA100.140.1177.2775.060.080.05
DuquesneA100.090.1159.0956.350.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1145.4541.20-0.01-0.02
XavierA100.090.1165.2263.740.030.03
FordhamA100.090.1140.9134.50-0.02-0.03
George WashingtonA100.090.1134.7832.08-0.03-0.04
Miami FLACC0.050.1165.0060.020.010.02
Western KentuckySB0.180.1134.7834.48-0.05-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.060.1033.3341.31-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.110.0956.5257.150.010.01
ColgatePat0.150.0930.4329.50-0.06-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0910.0014.93-0.04-0.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.0945.4545.70-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.150.0917.3919.81-0.10-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0950.0048.900.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.050.0969.5771.510.020.04
HamptonMEAC0.050.0836.3638.48-0.01-0.02
AmericanPat0.090.0865.2263.790.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.0826.0928.60-0.07-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0868.0070.030.030.03
Arizona St.P120.100.0830.4331.43-0.04-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.140.0840.0041.30-0.03-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.088.7011.67-0.08-0.06
Loyola MDMAAC0.090.0877.2773.450.050.04
MaristMAAC0.100.0834.7833.43-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0837.5041.54-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.140.0854.5556.090.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.0831.8225.98-0.04-0.04
AlbanyAE0.090.0860.0060.420.020.02
HofstraCAA0.130.0832.0035.39-0.05-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0821.7422.76-0.05-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0830.4326.44-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.0842.1149.81-0.02-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0886.3683.090.030.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.0819.0522.37-0.09-0.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0879.1780.100.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0817.3922.00-0.06-0.05
MaineAE0.150.0850.0049.730.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0878.2672.340.050.04
MissouriB120.140.0891.3087.180.120.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.0870.8364.420.060.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0837.5038.52-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.140.0860.8759.050.030.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0856.5257.720.010.01
Old DominionCAA0.090.0860.0058.290.020.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0866.6768.050.020.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0895.8392.570.090.07
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0871.4373.350.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0859.0959.720.020.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.000.0813.6416.35-0.00-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0812.5013.44-0.07-0.06
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.060.0747.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0725.0028.52-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0754.5557.690.010.01
CornellIvy0.000.0636.8441.45-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.110.0643.4842.95-0.01-0.01
Seattleind0.000.0623.5333.28-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0617.3920.97-0.04-0.03
VermontAE0.110.0660.0062.490.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0627.2735.02-0.05-0.02
NavyPat0.100.069.5213.19-0.08-0.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.800.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0618.1822.22-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.490.030.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0678.2678.390.030.03
IUPUISum0.050.0634.7835.50-0.01-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.040.0634.7833.46-0.01-0.02
BelmontASun0.050.0669.5773.280.020.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0668.4266.450.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0650.0056.760.000.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0671.4366.600.040.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0652.3852.860.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0672.7364.430.020.02
IowaB100.000.0654.1749.440.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0643.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0619.0521.29-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0672.7366.810.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.100.0668.1867.640.040.02
NebraskaB100.100.0652.3846.680.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.065.267.30-0.04-0.05
Ohio St.B100.050.0686.9685.460.040.04
PurdueB100.050.0665.2260.580.020.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0645.4545.55-0.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0631.8231.31-0.03-0.02
BaylorB120.100.0590.9183.850.080.04
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
CharlotteA100.050.0550.0049.450.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.100.0587.5085.410.070.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0547.8350.65-0.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0575.0075.780.020.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0571.4369.050.040.02
LehighPat0.050.0573.9174.910.020.03
MarylandACC0.090.0559.0950.820.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0034.15-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0526.3229.79-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0540.9139.56-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0560.0059.060.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0556.5255.200.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.0575.0073.970.050.03
AkronMAC0.090.0568.1867.910.030.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0547.8349.03-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.090.0579.1778.100.050.03
George MasonCAA0.000.0576.0072.500.000.02
Georgia St.CAA0.090.0566.6769.690.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0562.5062.060.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0547.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0562.5061.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.040.054.005.26-0.04-0.05
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0375.0076.000.030.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0334.7835.20-0.02-0.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0335.0040.78-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0352.3857.860.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0336.3639.72-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0334.7838.77-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.75-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0330.0030.06-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.9683.160.030.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0338.8943.93-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0328.5726.30-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.050.0376.1975.940.020.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.31-0.01-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.13-0.02-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0352.6348.410.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0359.0957.930.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0037.30-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0316.6723.02-0.03-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0366.6768.550.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.33-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.000.020.01
ButlerHorz0.050.0350.0050.800.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0335.2939.85-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9168.430.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0334.7838.42-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.040.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0372.7368.280.020.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.230.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0354.1757.200.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0325.0037.58-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0335.0038.58-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0381.8277.200.030.01
OklahomaB120.000.0359.0954.700.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0345.4540.70-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.750.030.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0340.9143.66-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.038.7013.10-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.034.359.66-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas A&MB120.000.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0361.9058.590.010.00
UABCUSA0.040.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0354.5556.790.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0369.5766.540.020.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0335.0039.38-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0341.6740.61-0.00-0.01