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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:290.9
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:107
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11144.30.03%
16-12164.10.14%
15-13184.60.60%
14-14205.91.97%
13-15225.94.92%
12-16247.59.36%
11-17268.714.80%
10-18287.318.03%
9-19303.918.72%
8-20318.915.00%
7-21330.09.21%
6-22337.94.85%
5-23343.51.84%
4-24347.80.42%
3-25349.40.07%
2-26349.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Kentucky (149.4)OVCA76-53L0%0.0
11-16Marshall (208.0)CUSAA66-47L0%0.0
11-20Winthrop (193.3)BSthH59-58W100%0.0
11-22Cleveland St. (155.1)HorzH0-025%-8.1
11-24Louisville (13.8)ACCA0-01%-30.5
11-28Jacksonville St. (306.2)OVCA0-038%-3.7
12-1Winthrop (193.3)BSthA0-018%-11.0
12-6Indiana (56.6)B10A0-02%-24.1
12-8Miami FL (29.5)ACCA0-02%-25.6
12-14Kansas St. (67.8)B12A0-03%-23.2
12-16Tulane (256.7)AmerA0-021%-9.7
1-3LSU (56.4)SECA0-03%-22.6
1-10North Carolina A&T (330.0)MEACA0-050%-0.1
1-12North Carolina Central (168.2)MEACA0-010%-15.1
1-17Maryland Eastern Shore (323.2)MEACA0-047%-1.0
1-19Delaware St. (253.0)MEACA0-028%-7.1
1-24Hampton (178.6)MEACH0-030%-6.2
1-26Norfolk St. (253.9)MEACH0-047%-0.9
1-31North Carolina A&T (330.0)MEACH0-072%7.1
2-7Morgan St. (272.8)MEACA0-028%-7.2
2-9Coppin St. (287.5)MEACA0-039%-3.4
2-14South Carolina St. (311.9)MEACH0-066%5.0
2-21Howard (318.2)MEACH0-063%3.9
2-23Florida A&M (347.1)MEACH0-081%10.4
2-25Bethune Cookman (294.8)MEACH0-054%1.2
2-28South Carolina St. (311.9)MEACA0-043%-2.2
3-2North Carolina Central (168.2)MEACH0-026%-7.9
3-5Florida A&M (347.1)MEACA0-061%3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC41.6726.2133.3337.82-13.89-6.38
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.190.0018.61-0.00-2.63
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.180.0023.12-0.00-2.25
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.170.0068.50-0.001.54
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.140.0027.44-0.00-1.87
WinthropBSth16.673.60100.0057.2616.670.52
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.530.0047.18-0.00-0.14
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4225.0029.46-0.00-1.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.420.0027.81-0.00-1.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4250.0042.480.00-0.36
HowardMEAC0.002.420.0032.65-0.00-0.84
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.390.0037.12-0.00-0.62
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.390.0044.17-0.00-0.28
HamptonMEAC0.002.390.0063.46-0.000.64
Jacksonville St.OVC4.172.010.0026.37-4.17-0.95
Eastern KentuckyOVC16.671.970.0061.16-16.670.44
LouisvilleACC0.001.97100.0076.880.001.06
Miami FLACC0.001.91100.0067.240.000.66
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8850.0050.820.000.03
MarshallCUSA16.671.88100.0039.7016.67-0.39
IndianaB100.001.81100.0063.430.000.49
Kansas St.B120.001.79100.0058.680.000.31
LSUSEC0.001.79100.0062.250.000.44
TulaneAmer0.001.7950.0033.810.00-0.58
RadfordBSth0.000.2333.3343.60-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.22100.0050.460.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.21100.0066.870.000.07
MarylandB100.000.20100.0067.780.000.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.200.0063.86-0.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0029.61-0.00-0.08
ClemsonACC4.170.1950.0046.570.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.19100.0070.930.000.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.170.0048.48-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0030.64-0.00-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1750.0061.050.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1750.0052.100.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.170.0034.11-0.00-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.16100.0067.660.000.06
Morehead St.OVC0.000.160.0058.61-0.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.160.0037.06-0.00-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.16100.0066.730.000.05
HoustonAmer0.000.16100.0065.680.000.05
Texas TechB120.000.1650.0045.040.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.150.0031.63-0.00-0.06
FIUCUSA0.000.15100.0044.790.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.15100.0043.270.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.15100.0073.880.000.07
High PointBSth0.000.14100.0057.950.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1450.0043.990.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.0032.76-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.140.0017.64-0.00-0.09
IUPUISum0.000.1433.3328.81-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0065.830.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0016.22-0.00-0.09
AuburnSEC0.000.1350.0037.190.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1350.0071.660.000.06
FordhamA100.000.130.0036.83-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1333.3357.17-0.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1366.6757.950.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0035.660.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.1233.3329.88-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0060.930.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0023.67-0.00-0.06
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0067.060.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1233.3350.61-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1266.6747.950.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.12100.0057.350.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3335.35-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0039.93-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0035.31-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0950.0052.080.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.090.0025.25-0.00-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.000.09100.0060.870.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0056.080.000.01
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.330.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0070.520.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0950.0054.530.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0950.0045.250.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0085.280.000.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.090.0034.86-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0950.0068.630.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.090.0066.43-0.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.090.0065.41-0.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0048.49-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0047.69-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0057.150.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0043.860.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0950.0059.620.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0045.740.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.09100.0070.180.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.630.000.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.86-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0053.31-0.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0966.6741.230.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0950.0056.950.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0966.6746.550.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0950.0046.460.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.09100.0061.020.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.970.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0059.250.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0071.690.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.78-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.47-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.05-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.060.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0044.88-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0058.910.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3351.93-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.23-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0068.930.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0069.720.000.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.05-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0055.09-0.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.650.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.060.0051.69-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.90-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.57-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0074.610.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0040.830.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0650.0058.740.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.300.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0031.43-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.300.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.790.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3364.95-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.06100.0048.410.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0034.44-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0049.980.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.020.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.410.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.380.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.350.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6757.250.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.060.0041.28-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0055.290.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.60-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0666.6773.790.000.03
MichiganB100.000.06100.0067.240.000.02
VCUA100.000.06100.0076.230.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.060.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0050.010.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0046.51-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3369.45-0.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0066.390.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0062.330.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0034.150.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0049.85-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.500.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.48-0.00-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0055.200.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0350.0040.820.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.850.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.480.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0063.340.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0046.120.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.890.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3350.49-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0046.350.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0044.770.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0056.850.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.55-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.68-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0061.570.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0045.27-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.23-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.880.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.87-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0042.76-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0038.06-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0038.380.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6748.810.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0067.190.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0034.17-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.030.0057.31-0.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.560.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.480.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.95-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.990.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0049.27-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6753.710.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.030.0051.39-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.720.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.03100.0051.540.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0067.300.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.99-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0062.990.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.320.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0029.910.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.430.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.030.0060.94-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0053.570.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.81-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0063.260.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0064.340.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0028.57-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0350.0059.510.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0072.220.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.35-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0033.91-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0030.65-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.330.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0048.12-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0068.630.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0057.160.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0065.390.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.91-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.780.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.19-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0044.320.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0036.86-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0039.830.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02