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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:273.0
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:286
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:318
Expected OOC SOS:73



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19273.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA88-55L0%0.0
11-9Robert Morris (129.0)NECA86-66L0%0.0
11-18North Florida (189.0)ASunA66-63L0%0.0
11-21Lamar (344.0)SlndN66-75L0%0.0
11-22Grand Canyon (203.0)WACN72-71L0%0.0
11-23Utah (80.0)P12A71-57L0%0.0
11-26North Florida (189.0)ASunH61-65L0%0.0
12-10Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA55-50L0%0.0
12-12Arkansas (77.0)SECA72-43L0%0.0
12-19Miami FL (110.0)ACCH51-68L0%0.0
12-29Florida (1.0)SECA76-34L0%0.0
1-3Baylor (30.0)B12A80-50L0%0.0
1-6Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACH66-42W100%0.0
1-11Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA53-75W100%0.0
1-13Howard (323.0)MEACA54-56W100%0.0
1-18Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH70-60W100%0.0
1-20Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH79-68W100%0.0
1-25Hampton (204.0)MEACH71-80L0%0.0
1-27Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH49-56L0%0.0
2-1Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA40-50W100%0.0
2-3Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA54-51L0%0.0
2-10Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA79-59L0%0.0
2-15North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH73-48W100%0.0
2-17North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH62-76L0%0.0
2-22South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA65-75W100%0.0
3-1North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA67-71W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA64-57L0%0.0
3-6South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH69-50W100%0.0
3-10South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACN61-47W100%0.0
3-13Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN57-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.3426.3439.8639.86-5.34-5.34
South Carolina St.MEAC5.615.6128.0028.00-2.47-2.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.124.1282.7682.762.702.70
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.094.0917.8617.86-2.63-2.63
Florida A&MMEAC4.034.0339.2939.29-0.86-0.86
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.014.0127.5927.59-1.80-1.80
Norfolk St.MEAC3.953.9550.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun3.413.4142.8642.86-0.49-0.49
HowardMEAC2.332.3320.0020.00-1.40-1.40
Coppin St.MEAC2.312.3136.6736.67-0.62-0.62
HamptonMEAC2.312.3158.6258.620.400.40
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.312.3118.5218.52-1.45-1.45
Delaware St.MEAC2.282.2822.2222.22-1.27-1.27
FloridaSEC1.751.7593.9493.941.541.54
Miami FLACC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
UtahP121.731.7362.0762.070.420.42
LamarSlnd1.731.737.417.41-1.47-1.47
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7244.0044.00-0.21-0.21
PittsburghACC1.721.7272.7372.730.780.78
ArkansasSEC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
BaylorB121.671.6765.6265.620.520.52
Northern IowaMVC1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC1.671.6760.6160.610.350.35
Morgan St.MEAC0.810.8148.3948.39-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.280.2835.7135.71-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
NJITind0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.220.2241.1841.18-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.190.1982.3582.350.120.12
AlabamaSEC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
KentuckySEC0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
Georgia SouthernSC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
SeattleWAC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
MichiganB100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
NebraskaB100.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
CampbellBSth0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01