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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:345
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-10
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:277
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15277.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Campbell (308.0)BSthH59-57W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH76-75W100%0.0
11-20Oregon (2.0)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-23Baylor (25.0)B12A100-61L0%0.0
11-27Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA69-42L0%0.0
11-29South Florida (230.0)AmerA67-57L0%0.0
12-2Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH76-67W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH71-74L0%0.0
12-16Utah (8.0)P12A99-53L0%0.0
1-2Missouri (222.0)SECA81-50L0%0.0
1-5Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA61-58L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH75-68W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH46-69L0%0.0
1-16Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH68-61W100%0.0
1-18Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH64-47W100%0.0
1-23Hampton (155.0)MEACA75-52L0%0.0
1-25Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA92-73L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA63-62L0%0.0
2-2Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA62-59L0%0.0
2-6Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH57-49W100%0.0
2-8Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH72-63W100%0.0
2-13South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA57-60W100%0.0
2-20Howard (328.0)MEACA56-66W100%0.0
2-27South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH76-64W100%0.0
2-29North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA61-44L0%0.0
3-3Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH52-40W100%0.0
3-7Delaware St. (345.0)MEACN63-58W100%0.0
3-10Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACN50-57W100%0.0
3-11Hampton (155.0)MEACN89-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.2426.2449.5449.54-0.24-0.24
South Carolina St.MEAC4.234.2358.6258.620.730.73
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.184.1839.2939.29-0.89-0.89
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.174.1729.6329.63-1.70-1.70
HamptonMEAC4.174.1764.2964.291.191.19
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.154.1531.0331.03-1.58-1.58
Delaware St.MEAC4.144.1417.8617.86-2.66-2.66
Florida A&MMEAC4.114.1120.0020.00-2.46-2.46
Coppin St.MEAC2.532.5325.0025.00-1.26-1.26
Norfolk St.MEAC2.512.5146.6746.67-0.17-0.17
Morgan St.MEAC2.512.5127.5927.59-1.12-1.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.472.4730.0030.00-0.99-0.99
HowardMEAC2.452.4534.4834.48-0.76-0.76
Arkansas St.SB1.891.8932.1432.14-0.68-0.68
OregonP121.891.8981.2581.251.181.18
UtahP121.861.8675.0075.000.930.93
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
BaylorB121.811.8164.5264.520.520.52
Jackson St.SWAC1.811.8151.6151.610.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
MissouriSEC1.781.7830.0030.00-0.71-0.71
CampbellBSth1.751.7534.6234.62-0.54-0.54
South FloridaAmer1.721.7221.8821.88-0.97-0.97
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2042.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.180.1829.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
HoustonAmer0.180.1870.9770.970.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
ColoradoP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
TempleAmer0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
CaliforniaP120.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
WinthropBSth0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1422.8622.86-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
The CitadelSC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Georgia St.SB0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP120.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USCP120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
WashingtonP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01