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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:97



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22331.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA76-53L0%0.0
11-16Marshall (296.0)CUSAA66-47L0%0.0
11-20Winthrop (210.0)BSthH59-58W100%0.0
11-22Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH87-83W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (21.0)ACCA87-26L0%0.0
11-28Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA74-71L0%0.0
12-1Winthrop (210.0)BSthA68-47L0%0.0
12-6Indiana (61.0)B10A95-49L0%0.0
12-8Miami FL (65.0)ACCA70-39L0%0.0
12-14Kansas St. (100.0)B12A73-53L0%0.0
12-16Tulane (214.0)AmerA75-67L0%0.0
1-3LSU (57.0)SECA75-59L0%0.0
1-10North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA68-47L0%0.0
1-12North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA58-40L0%0.0
1-17Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA87-57L0%0.0
1-19Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA59-50L0%0.0
1-24Hampton (251.0)MEACH68-66W100%0.0
1-26Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH54-70L0%0.0
1-31North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH59-62L0%0.0
2-7Morgan St. (337.0)MEACA67-57L0%0.0
2-9Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA70-73W100%0.0
2-14South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH53-56L0%0.0
2-21Howard (255.0)MEACH48-50L0%0.0
2-23Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH63-52W100%0.0
2-25Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH58-49W100%0.0
2-28South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACA57-68W100%0.0
3-2North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH49-62L0%0.0
3-5Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA64-57L0%0.0
3-9Delaware St. (204.0)MEACN64-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.1626.1624.7924.79-13.19-13.19
Delaware St.MEAC4.134.1345.1645.16-0.40-0.40
South Carolina St.MEAC4.104.1027.5927.59-1.84-1.84
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.104.1074.0774.071.971.97
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.074.0717.8617.86-2.62-2.62
Florida A&MMEAC4.014.013.703.70-3.72-3.72
WinthropBSth3.483.4855.5655.560.390.39
HamptonMEAC2.452.4550.0050.000.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.442.4431.0331.03-0.92-0.92
Coppin St.MEAC2.432.4324.1424.14-1.26-1.26
Norfolk St.MEAC2.372.3756.6756.670.320.32
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.372.3754.8454.840.230.23
HowardMEAC2.362.3642.8642.86-0.34-0.34
Morgan St.MEAC2.312.3120.0020.00-1.39-1.39
Jacksonville St.OVC1.931.9332.1432.14-0.69-0.69
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.891.8959.2659.260.350.35
LouisvilleACC1.891.8974.1974.190.910.91
Miami FLACC1.841.8462.5062.500.460.46
Cleveland St.Horz1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
MarshallCUSA1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
IndianaB101.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
Kansas St.B121.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
LSUSEC1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
TulaneAmer1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
RadfordBSth0.270.2762.0762.070.060.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.230.2368.9768.970.090.09
USC UpstateASun0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
ClemsonACC0.200.2051.6151.610.010.01
MarylandB100.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
VirginiaACC0.190.1990.6290.620.160.16
LongwoodBSth0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.170.1710.3410.34-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.170.1718.7518.75-0.11-0.11
CampbellBSth0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
HoustonAmer0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.170.1768.5768.570.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.150.1521.4321.43-0.08-0.08
LibertyBSth0.150.1514.2914.29-0.10-0.10
MemphisAmer0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
FIUCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
NJITind0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
FordhamA100.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1127.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
IllinoisB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
UCFAmer0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
VCUA100.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02