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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:279.0
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:333
Current Record:11-16
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:10-6
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:291
Expected OOC SOS:130



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-16279.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Iowa St. (21.0)B12A113-71L0%0.0
11-13Iowa (81.0)B10A116-84L0%0.0
11-19Memphis (120.0)AmerA99-86L0%0.0
11-25St. Francis NY (348.0)NECN97-91L0%0.0
11-26Grambling St. (317.0)SWACN110-104L0%0.0
11-28San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA100-67L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH75-94L0%0.0
12-3Oregon (9.0)P12A128-59L0%0.0
12-11Oregon St. (280.0)P12A90-93W100%0.0
12-19William & Mary (110.0)CAAA112-85L0%0.0
12-29East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA92-71L0%0.0
1-4Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH104-91W100%0.0
1-9Hampton (283.0)MEACA84-80L0%0.0
1-11Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA80-76L0%0.0
1-14Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH93-88W100%0.0
1-16South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA82-86W100%0.0
1-21Morgan St. (326.0)MEACH74-61W100%0.0
1-23Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH94-79W100%0.0
1-28Howard (337.0)MEACA70-73W100%0.0
1-30Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA82-87W100%0.0
2-4Hampton (283.0)MEACH89-92L0%0.0
2-6Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH87-92L0%0.0
2-18Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA83-75L0%0.0
2-20Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH83-84L0%0.0
2-25North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA91-110W100%0.0
2-27North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACA73-74W100%0.0
3-2South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH95-88W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.0826.0845.6045.60-2.29-2.29
Norfolk St.MEAC4.434.4344.8344.83-0.46-0.46
South Carolina St.MEAC4.394.3933.3333.33-1.46-1.46
HamptonMEAC4.354.3538.4638.46-1.00-1.00
Morgan St.MEAC4.264.2644.4444.44-0.47-0.47
HowardMEAC2.602.6025.8125.81-1.26-1.26
Coppin St.MEAC2.572.5720.6920.69-1.51-1.51
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.572.5738.7138.71-0.58-0.58
Florida A&MMEAC2.572.5718.5218.52-1.62-1.62
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.562.5675.8675.861.321.32
Delaware St.MEAC2.542.5427.5927.59-1.14-1.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.532.5327.5927.59-1.14-1.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.502.503.453.45-2.33-2.33
IowaB101.941.9454.8454.840.190.19
William & MaryCAA1.921.9250.0050.000.000.00
OregonP121.911.9184.3884.381.311.31
Oregon St.P121.911.9113.3313.33-1.40-1.40
Georgia SouthernSB1.881.8851.7251.720.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC1.881.8841.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Iowa St.B121.881.8868.7568.750.710.71
MemphisAmer1.881.8858.0658.060.300.30
East Tennessee St.SC1.851.8577.4277.421.021.02
San Diego St.MWC1.851.8554.8454.840.180.18
St. Francis NYNEC1.851.856.906.90-1.60-1.60
East CarolinaAmer0.220.2245.4545.45-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.200.2063.6463.640.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
UCFAmer0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.090.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
FurmanSC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
HoustonAmer0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
TulsaAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
USCP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Arizona St.P120.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
ElonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
NevadaMWC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
PrincetonIvy0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.050.05
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
BucknellPat0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00