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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:339.8
Current RPI:335
Expected SOS:338
Current SOS:265
Current Record:0-7
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:339
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-13238.00.01%
13-14267.80.04%
12-15279.60.36%
11-16299.71.39%
10-17313.93.84%
9-18325.48.56%
8-19334.515.36%
7-20340.820.30%
6-21345.021.05%
5-22347.615.37%
4-23349.28.68%
3-24350.03.91%
2-25350.51.05%
1-26350.40.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Iowa St. (31.7)B12A113-71L0%0.0
11-13Iowa (164.3)B10A116-84L0%0.0
11-19Memphis (120.6)AmerA99-86L0%0.0
11-25St. Francis NY (314.7)NECN97-91L0%0.0
11-26Grambling St. (333.4)SWACN110-104L0%0.0
11-28San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA100-67L0%0.0
12-1Georgia Southern (167.0)SBH75-94L0%0.0
12-3Oregon (50.4)P12A0-00%-30.9
12-11Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-010%-15.2
12-19William & Mary (121.0)CAAA0-04%-20.8
12-29East Tennessee St. (73.8)SCA0-01%-27.7
1-4Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACH0-059%2.6
1-7Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-024%-8.6
1-9Hampton (332.8)MEACA0-029%-6.7
1-14Florida A&M (346.2)MEACH0-064%4.2
1-16South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACA0-036%-4.4
1-21Morgan St. (332.1)MEACH0-050%-0.1
1-23Delaware St. (289.6)MEACH0-046%-1.3
1-28Howard (291.2)MEACA0-021%-9.8
1-30Maryland Eastern Shore (291.5)MEACA0-023%-9.0
2-4Hampton (332.8)MEACH0-048%-0.6
2-6Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH0-042%-2.5
2-18Morgan St. (332.1)MEACA0-030%-6.3
2-20Coppin St. (342.9)MEACH0-069%6.0
2-25North Carolina A&T (339.0)MEACA0-038%-3.8
2-27North Carolina Central (154.4)MEACA0-05%-19.3
3-2South Carolina St. (304.2)MEACH0-056%1.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC29.1226.150.0025.26-29.12-12.94
HamptonMEAC0.004.370.0031.99-0.00-1.57
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.340.0036.13-0.00-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.330.0025.65-0.00-2.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.004.2716.6735.31-0.00-1.25
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.590.0017.76-0.00-1.67
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.5516.6735.71-0.00-0.73
Florida A&MMEAC0.602.540.0022.97-0.60-1.38
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.5216.6731.56-0.00-0.93
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.512.520.0022.96-0.51-1.36
HowardMEAC0.002.490.0036.80-0.00-0.66
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.480.0032.64-0.00-0.86
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.4866.6774.620.001.22
IowaB107.651.9433.3342.48-2.55-0.29
William & MaryCAA0.001.9240.0053.89-0.000.15
OregonP120.001.9171.4365.600.000.60
Oregon St.P120.001.9128.5721.48-0.00-1.09
Georgia SouthernSB7.141.8940.0043.46-1.43-0.25
Grambling St.SWAC7.141.8816.6731.74-4.76-0.69
Iowa St.B127.141.8866.6767.902.380.67
MemphisAmer7.651.8883.3358.405.100.32
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.8583.3380.040.001.11
San Diego St.MWC7.141.8566.6774.022.380.89
St. Francis NYNEC7.141.850.0026.93-7.14-0.85
East CarolinaAmer0.510.2375.0047.510.26-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1757.1459.480.000.03
CaliforniaP120.890.1683.3363.610.600.04
UtahP120.000.1675.0061.040.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1350.0054.490.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1320.0036.00-0.00-0.04
FurmanSC0.000.1320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1333.3343.64-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.1357.1455.810.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1360.0039.610.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1385.7155.890.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1325.0039.28-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.510.130.0042.55-0.51-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1328.5739.44-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.1328.5730.29-0.22-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1371.4343.020.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1320.0032.60-0.00-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.1342.8638.05-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.000.1333.3353.85-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1366.6732.240.00-0.05
HoustonAmer0.000.1383.3376.370.000.07
PurdueB100.000.1371.4374.450.000.06
RutgersB100.000.1383.3344.770.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1383.3374.620.000.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.510.1212.5048.98-0.38-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.130.1225.0024.28-1.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.000.1271.4359.850.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1275.0059.100.000.02
UCLAP120.000.12100.0083.550.000.08
USCP120.000.12100.0075.380.000.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0042.710.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1083.3361.490.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1071.4386.030.000.07
ClemsonACC0.000.1066.6753.460.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.1040.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1020.0048.38-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.1057.1440.550.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.1050.0047.990.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1083.3377.170.000.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1060.0070.500.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1014.2934.56-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1066.6754.420.000.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1050.0052.140.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.1025.0056.92-0.000.01
Miami FLACC0.510.1071.4365.740.220.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1075.0070.470.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.1071.4349.590.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1071.4371.570.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.10100.0080.780.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1016.6718.96-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1057.1467.020.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.1028.5728.26-0.00-0.04
BrownIvy0.600.1050.0042.420.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1033.3338.19-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.100.0024.77-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1016.6732.62-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1057.1448.860.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1057.1436.050.00-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.1083.3357.990.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.1062.5043.960.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1066.6761.340.000.02
MercerSC0.600.1050.0053.050.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1066.6758.420.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.510.0940.0027.05-0.10-0.04
ProvidenceBE1.620.0971.4356.280.690.01
VirginiaACC1.620.09100.0082.551.620.06
BaylorB120.000.09100.0074.460.000.05
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.0983.3351.920.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0933.3338.76-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0039.200.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0762.5056.500.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0742.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0742.8647.69-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.070.0028.15-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0771.4358.670.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0757.1448.240.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.95-0.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0757.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0089.040.000.05
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0740.0037.44-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0716.6733.82-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0766.6766.100.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0750.0053.560.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.890.0728.5727.50-0.38-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0750.0056.430.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0056.260.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0766.6765.810.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0013.30-0.00-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.39-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0775.0067.660.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.07100.0075.690.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0716.6743.29-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0742.8646.78-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0733.3340.39-0.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0740.0067.95-0.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3345.60-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0716.6727.03-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0750.0058.980.000.01
GonzagaWCC1.400.07100.0091.061.400.05
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.510.060.0020.01-0.51-0.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
AkronMAC0.600.0683.3369.840.400.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0666.6769.810.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC1.190.0671.4350.570.510.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.430.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.510.0633.3333.15-0.17-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Notre DameACC0.510.06100.0075.010.510.03
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.03
ArmyPat0.000.0633.3345.58-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0640.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0640.0043.86-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.510.0685.7180.960.360.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0333.3327.13-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.510.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0316.6733.69-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0357.1447.320.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0041.93-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.600.0333.3336.31-0.20-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.510.0333.3346.81-0.17-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Seton HallBE0.510.0371.4354.520.220.00
UABCUSA0.000.0357.1461.940.000.01