Savannah St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	214.3
Current RPI:	224
Expected SOS:	331
Current SOS:	324
Current Record:	11-10
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	7-2
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	20.79%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-4
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	257
Expected OOC SOS:	231

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	172.5	6.00%
18-11	192.0	22.90%
17-12	210.4	32.73%
16-13	229.1	24.98%
15-14	248.6	10.24%
14-15	266.4	2.69%
13-16	281.1	0.42%
12-17	291.3	0.03%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Georgetown (13.9)	BE	A	83-54	L	0%	0.0
11-14	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	62-57	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Jacksonville (285.8)	ASun	H	73-70	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Indiana (20.6)	B10	A	94-65	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	57-42	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Chattanooga (285.8)	SC	A	65-63	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	N	66-72	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Hampton (307.2)	MEAC	A	49-65	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Norfolk St. (131.7)	MEAC	A	60-58	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Georgia Tech (164.1)	ACC	H	45-65	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	66-33	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	H	45-41	W	100%	0.0
1-3	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	A	83-66	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	72-60	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Morgan St. (264.2)	MEAC	H	57-55	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	A	58-69	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	A	68-62	L	0%	0.0
1-21	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	H	83-53	W	100%	0.0
1-23	Stetson (255.4)	ASun	H	75-45	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Howard (313.9)	MEAC	H	71-50	W	100%	0.0
2-4	South Carolina St. (337.8)	MEAC	A	60-73	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		84%	10.9
2-11	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	A	0-0		40%	-2.7
2-13	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	A	0-0		61%	3.0
2-18	Florida A&M (329.2)	MEAC	H	0-0		91%	14.8
2-20	Bethune Cookman (260.5)	MEAC	H	0-0		77%	8.0
2-25	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	H	0-0		64%	4.0
2-27	North Carolina A&T (266.3)	MEAC	H	0-0		81%	9.7
3-1	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	A	0-0		79%	8.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Savannah St.	MEAC	26.26	26.19	58.02	61.52	4.21	6.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	2.77	4.22	35.00	41.38	-0.83	-0.73
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.77	4.19	20.00	23.75	-1.66	-2.20
South Carolina St.	MEAC	5.26	4.16	11.11	16.08	-4.09	-2.82
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.35	4.12	38.89	43.61	-0.08	-0.53
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.35	4.10	33.33	37.89	-0.12	-0.99
Howard	MEAC	2.83	2.34	19.05	23.04	-1.75	-1.26
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.83	2.27	44.44	51.89	-0.31	0.09
Hampton	MEAC	2.91	2.26	38.10	39.81	-0.69	-0.46
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.78	2.25	26.32	38.97	-1.32	-0.50
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.22	2.25	20.00	19.93	-0.13	-1.35
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.85	2.25	66.67	68.59	0.95	0.84
Stetson	ASun	2.69	1.99	33.33	32.47	-0.90	-0.70
Indiana	B10	2.69	1.97	73.91	74.97	1.29	0.98
North Florida	ASun	2.65	1.97	43.48	44.84	-0.35	-0.20
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.77	1.93	36.36	40.16	-0.76	-0.38
Jacksonville	ASun	2.54	1.90	18.18	22.78	-1.62	-1.04
Butler	Horz	2.54	1.81	47.83	49.11	-0.11	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	2.53	1.81	23.81	32.61	-1.33	-0.63
Georgia Tech	ACC	2.44	1.79	36.36	40.13	-0.66	-0.35
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	1.78	18.18	21.32	-0.04	-1.02
Georgetown	BE	2.44	1.75	80.00	76.54	1.46	0.93
Wisconsin	B10	2.43	1.75	73.91	73.11	1.16	0.81
Arkansas	SEC	2.38	1.72	68.18	63.99	0.87	0.48
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.38	1.72	27.27	29.63	-1.08	-0.70
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.27	0.71	35.29	39.85	-0.08	-0.14
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.43	0.33	8.70	11.67	-0.36	-0.25
Mercer	ASun	0.32	0.24	70.83	71.64	0.13	0.10
Longwood	ind	0.23	0.21	30.00	27.84	-0.09	-0.09
Marquette	BE	0.32	0.21	79.17	75.98	0.19	0.11
Lipscomb	ASun	0.31	0.21	43.48	43.82	-0.04	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.21	0.21	54.55	56.09	0.02	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.21	0.21	56.52	48.81	0.03	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.26	0.18	69.57	73.28	0.10	0.08
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.18	52.38	52.86	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.21	0.18	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.26	0.17	68.18	69.10	0.10	0.07
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.17	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.15	34.78	33.46	-0.03	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.15	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.15	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.15	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.22	0.15	65.22	63.79	0.07	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.21	0.15	65.22	60.58	0.06	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.14	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.20	0.14	86.96	85.46	0.15	0.10
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.13	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.00	0.13	82.61	84.57	0.00	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.23	0.12	59.09	54.70	0.04	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.12	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.12	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.12	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.12	0.12	57.14	53.12	0.02	0.01
Providence	BE	0.11	0.12	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.16	0.12	34.78	37.24	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.12	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.12	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.18	0.12	90.91	83.85	0.14	0.08
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.12	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.12	55.00	60.33	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.12	90.91	87.74	0.05	0.09
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.21	0.12	56.52	55.95	0.03	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.12	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.12	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.12	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.16	0.12	82.61	77.63	0.10	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.20	0.11	72.73	66.81	0.09	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.11	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.10	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.17	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.04	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.17	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.06	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.18	0.09	60.87	58.16	0.04	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.11	0.09	33.33	35.26	-0.04	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.09	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.09	9.52	13.19	-0.09	-0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.16	0.09	72.73	71.71	0.07	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.09	27.27	27.21	-0.05	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.16	0.09	70.83	71.05	0.07	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.16	0.09	34.78	34.61	-0.05	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.16	0.09	59.09	57.93	0.03	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.09	31.82	32.75	-0.06	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.04	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.09	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.09	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.09	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.09	95.83	92.57	0.14	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.15	0.09	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.09	35.00	39.38	-0.04	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.15	0.09	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.08	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.16	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.03	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.00	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.00	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.07	35.00	40.78	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.06	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.06	4.76	9.95	-0.00	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.00	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.06	0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.06	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.01	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.06	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.08	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.06	72.22	71.97	0.05	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.06	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.64	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.06	13.64	16.35	-0.08	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.06	68.00	70.03	0.04	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.06	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.06	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.00	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.00	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.06	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.03	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.00	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.00	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.00	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.00	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.00	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.00	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.00	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.00	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.00	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.03	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.03	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.00	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.00	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.00	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.00	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.02	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01