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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:223
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14166.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH55-58L0%0.0
11-14North Florida (230.0)ASunH54-47W100%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (328.0)SWACA54-59W100%0.0
11-18Central Florida (103.0)CUSAA53-50L0%0.0
11-20Florida (7.0)SECA58-40L0%0.0
11-24Western Illinois (122.0)SumH39-38W100%0.0
11-26Robert Morris (132.0)NECH61-52W100%0.0
12-1Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH45-55L0%0.0
12-12Ohio St. (10.0)B10A85-45L0%0.0
12-15Marquette (13.0)BEA71-51L0%0.0
12-19Marshall (208.0)CUSAA64-48L0%0.0
1-2Western Illinois (122.0)SumA39-35L0%0.0
1-4St. Louis (15.0)A10A67-59L0%0.0
1-12Coppin St. (313.0)MEACA48-56W100%0.0
1-14Morgan St. (236.0)MEACA70-78W100%0.0
1-19Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH57-55W100%0.0
1-21Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH43-40W100%0.0
1-26South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACA49-64W100%0.0
2-2Howard (334.0)MEACA42-52W100%0.0
2-7Hampton (287.0)MEACH68-71L0%0.0
2-9South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH50-46W100%0.0
2-14Florida A&M (331.0)MEACA65-67W100%0.0
2-16North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACH44-36W100%0.0
2-18North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH56-49W100%0.0
2-23Campbell (289.0)BSthA63-69W100%0.0
2-25Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACA72-58L0%0.0
3-2North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACA51-47L0%0.0
3-4North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACA59-57L0%0.0
3-7Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACH71-54W100%0.0
3-11Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACN59-44W100%0.0
3-14Morgan St. (236.0)MEACN61-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.2526.2559.1259.124.794.79
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.054.0553.1253.120.250.25
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.983.9836.6736.67-1.06-1.06
Florida A&MMEAC3.943.9422.2222.22-2.19-2.19
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.913.9169.2369.231.501.50
Morgan St.MEAC3.903.9053.3353.330.260.26
South Carolina St.MEAC3.853.8515.3815.38-2.67-2.67
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.723.727.697.69-3.15-3.15
Western IllinoisSum3.233.2373.0873.081.491.49
Coppin St.MEAC2.282.2823.3323.33-1.21-1.21
Norfolk St.MEAC2.222.2264.5264.520.650.65
HowardMEAC2.202.2021.4321.43-1.26-1.26
HamptonMEAC2.182.1843.3343.33-0.29-0.29
Central FloridaCUSA1.871.8760.7160.710.400.40
North FloridaASun1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
FloridaSEC1.721.7278.1278.120.970.97
MarquetteBE1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
MarshallCUSA1.691.6936.6736.67-0.45-0.45
Middle TennesseeSB1.691.6984.3884.381.161.16
Alabama St.SWAC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
CampbellBSth1.681.6837.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Robert MorrisNEC1.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
Ohio St.B101.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
St. LouisA101.611.6181.2581.251.011.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.800.8041.9441.94-0.13-0.13
South DakotaSum0.230.2328.5728.57-0.10-0.10
StetsonASun0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Florida InternationalSB0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
South FloridaBE0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.160.1648.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
East CarolinaCUSA0.160.1653.8553.850.010.01
PittsburghBE0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
AlbanyAE0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1428.0028.00-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
WinthropBSth0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
MemphisCUSA0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
TulaneCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
RadfordBSth0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Seton HallBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.120.1213.3313.33-0.08-0.08
MarylandACC0.120.1264.7164.710.030.03
OaklandSum0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1110.0010.00-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
HoustonCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
WagnerNEC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MissouriSEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ButlerA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ConnecticutBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCAA0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
KentuckySEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.070.0738.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
GramblingSWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Chicago St.GWC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New Orleansind0.050.0518.1818.18-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseBE0.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
George WashingtonA100.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Long IslandNEC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00