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Through games of Feb 13, 2016.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:314.6
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:345
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-10
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-13273.52.35%
12-14293.016.34%
11-15311.339.99%
10-16326.934.41%
9-17336.66.90%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Campbell (312.3)BSthH59-57W100%0.0
11-18Arkansas St. (246.5)SBH76-75W100%0.0
11-20Oregon (7.9)P12A77-59L0%0.0
11-23Baylor (32.6)B12A100-61L0%0.0
11-27Jackson St. (223.4)SWACA69-42L0%0.0
11-29South Florida (244.1)AmerA67-57L0%0.0
12-2Georgia Southern (243.5)SBH76-67W100%0.0
12-5Eastern Kentucky (209.3)OVCH71-74L0%0.0
12-16Utah (23.9)P12A99-53L0%0.0
1-2Missouri (210.0)SECA81-50L0%0.0
1-5Florida A&M (348.1)MEACA61-58L0%0.0
1-9North Carolina A&T (335.1)MEACH75-68W100%0.0
1-11North Carolina Central (314.5)MEACH46-69L0%0.0
1-16Maryland Eastern Shore (291.1)MEACH68-61W100%0.0
1-18Delaware St. (348.3)MEACH64-47W100%0.0
1-23Hampton (194.6)MEACA75-52L0%0.0
1-25Norfolk St. (205.2)MEACA92-73L0%0.0
1-30North Carolina A&T (335.1)MEACA63-62L0%0.0
2-2Bethune Cookman (310.6)MEACA62-59L0%0.0
2-6Morgan St. (333.5)MEACH57-49W100%0.0
2-8Coppin St. (321.9)MEACH72-63W100%0.0
2-13South Carolina St. (228.1)MEACA57-60W100%0.0
2-20Howard (309.1)MEACA0-029%-6.0
2-27South Carolina St. (228.1)MEACH0-041%-2.5
2-29North Carolina Central (314.5)MEACA0-023%-8.0
3-3Florida A&M (348.1)MEACH0-079%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC26.1626.1739.7440.12-5.37-5.17
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.954.5230.4332.62-1.94-1.57
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.714.4725.0030.56-1.35-1.74
South Carolina St.MEAC2.914.4752.1752.770.130.25
Florida A&MMEAC2.774.4320.0021.18-1.66-2.55
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.732.7327.2732.04-1.24-0.98
Delaware St.MEAC2.762.6513.6415.10-2.01-1.85
Morgan St.MEAC2.722.6219.0526.23-1.68-1.25
Norfolk St.MEAC2.772.5943.4849.43-0.36-0.03
HamptonMEAC2.762.5857.1459.850.390.51
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.812.5729.1732.50-1.17-0.90
Coppin St.MEAC2.752.5419.0523.96-1.70-1.32
HowardMEAC0.542.5134.7835.27-0.17-0.74
Arkansas St.SB2.512.1240.9139.48-0.46-0.45
OregonP122.512.0975.0073.921.261.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.372.0346.1545.71-0.18-0.17
BaylorB122.422.0269.5764.140.950.57
Jackson St.SWAC2.412.0245.4551.27-0.220.05
UtahP122.412.0269.5767.470.940.71
Georgia SouthernSB2.321.9942.8641.35-0.33-0.34
MissouriSEC2.371.9933.3330.45-0.79-0.78
CampbellBSth2.321.9636.3636.30-0.63-0.54
South FloridaAmer2.271.9216.6717.07-1.52-1.27
Kansas St.B120.280.2356.0054.680.030.02
HoustonAmer0.200.2172.0068.870.090.08
JacksonvilleASun0.200.2145.8346.51-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.140.1940.0039.42-0.03-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.190.1720.8322.68-0.11-0.10
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1724.0027.56-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.1747.8349.74-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.250.1726.0926.58-0.12-0.08
CaliforniaP120.240.1768.0065.640.090.05
ColoradoP120.190.1672.0066.650.080.05
WinthropBSth0.150.1468.1865.870.060.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1442.8641.45-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1419.2321.27-0.06-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.150.1463.6465.350.040.04
AkronMAC0.150.1479.1779.050.090.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1386.9686.020.070.10
Georgia St.SB0.100.1352.3851.410.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1357.1460.240.020.03
South AlabamaSB0.200.1339.1337.90-0.04-0.03
Texas St.SB0.150.1340.0038.79-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1369.5771.830.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1356.0059.610.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1347.8355.29-0.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1314.2917.11-0.10-0.09
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1373.0871.580.090.06
West VirginiaB120.140.1380.0078.490.080.07
Oregon St.P120.140.1360.8757.820.030.02
StanfordP120.190.1350.0046.650.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.140.1365.2262.390.040.03
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1383.3378.690.090.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1118.1825.82-0.07-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1156.0055.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.1150.0051.760.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1173.9172.350.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1158.3358.870.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1137.5038.17-0.02-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.100.1152.0052.860.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1162.5060.760.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1041.6741.41-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.150.1029.1729.25-0.06-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1020.0022.33-0.08-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1083.3382.060.100.07
Miami OHMAC0.100.1033.3331.74-0.03-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1040.0043.15-0.03-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1072.0069.230.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.1062.5059.920.020.02
StetsonASun0.100.1021.7425.66-0.06-0.05
PurdueB100.090.1076.9275.980.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.140.1025.0024.15-0.07-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1013.0418.03-0.07-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1052.0052.460.010.00
SMUAmer0.140.1087.5084.290.110.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1023.0825.64-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1058.3358.450.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1030.4332.19-0.05-0.03
TCUB120.100.1044.0039.06-0.01-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1066.6764.740.030.03
ToledoMAC0.140.1062.5063.370.040.03
MississippiSEC0.100.1064.0061.040.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.140.1062.5059.270.030.02
Texas TechB120.140.1062.5058.360.040.02
UCLAP120.050.1054.1753.010.000.01
USCP120.050.1075.0071.170.020.04
WashingtonP120.090.1060.0059.040.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.1034.7831.61-0.01-0.04
UCFAmer0.140.1047.8343.65-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.1080.0078.720.050.05
FloridaSEC0.090.1064.0062.910.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0960.8757.660.030.01
KentuckySEC0.130.0976.0074.450.070.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0972.0072.950.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0835.0034.88-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0841.6743.11-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0828.0028.34-0.02-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0860.0061.790.010.02
SamfordSC0.050.0838.4640.25-0.01-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0874.0773.100.030.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0726.0926.99-0.02-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0760.0059.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0759.0958.530.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.0741.6744.46-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0750.0051.400.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0722.7322.61-0.05-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0733.3333.43-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0762.5063.540.020.02
High PointBSth0.100.0759.0960.710.020.02
TowsonCAA0.100.0764.0060.170.030.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0754.1750.260.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0765.2264.480.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0778.2675.550.050.04
AmericanPat0.100.0728.0030.05-0.04-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.079.0911.96-0.08-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.0775.0077.280.050.04
DuquesneA100.050.0760.8756.210.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0761.5455.940.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0773.9172.090.020.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0723.8129.48-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0765.2264.150.010.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.0744.0039.90-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0723.0825.88-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.100.0776.0073.090.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0747.8345.05-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0735.0039.98-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0731.8236.20-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.0765.2264.670.030.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0737.5034.54-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0760.8760.120.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0770.8370.190.040.03
DelawareCAA0.090.0624.0024.18-0.05-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0648.0048.31-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0656.0053.620.010.00
BelmontOVC0.040.0665.3865.160.010.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0654.1754.540.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0623.0823.73-0.02-0.03
KansasB120.050.0683.3381.420.030.04
Kent St.MAC0.090.0662.5059.800.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0654.1755.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0623.0823.86-0.05-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0683.3380.440.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0648.0043.71-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0613.6414.63-0.07-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0669.5767.210.030.02
TexasB120.050.0664.0061.080.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0626.0928.44-0.04-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0652.0048.970.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0660.0060.860.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0648.0050.99-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0656.0056.660.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0652.0049.600.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.090.0638.4637.32-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0465.3863.470.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0442.8643.95-0.01-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0450.0050.420.000.00
IowaB100.050.0479.1778.810.030.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0437.5038.73-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0419.0519.66-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0417.3920.09-0.03-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0368.1868.210.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0330.4329.85-0.02-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0345.4545.84-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0338.1036.77-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0336.3638.01-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0343.4842.31-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0338.4641.33-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0320.8319.90-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0380.0077.220.030.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0362.5063.810.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0328.5728.84-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3333.86-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0372.0072.970.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0356.0055.650.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0353.8551.690.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0348.0047.35-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0361.5456.600.010.00
MarylandB100.050.0384.0080.600.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0372.0068.710.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.510.030.02
NebraskaB100.050.0353.8551.650.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0340.0039.62-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.670.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0358.3356.260.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0384.0081.460.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.6250.56-0.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0328.5730.34-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0050.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0338.4640.70-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0362.5061.440.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.2371.010.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0325.0026.16-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0350.0049.580.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0372.0069.300.020.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0350.0053.010.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.560.030.02
Murray St.OVC0.040.0350.0051.470.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0365.3865.340.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0366.6768.770.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0322.2228.35-0.03-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0370.8370.070.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0312.5014.81-0.03-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0373.6876.550.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0354.1755.730.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0379.1779.630.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0343.4844.22-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0370.8373.510.020.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.0873.780.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0357.6958.190.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0372.0070.630.000.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0372.0070.430.020.01
IllinoisB100.050.0344.0043.45-0.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0364.0061.350.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0360.0059.940.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0357.6957.310.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0361.9060.140.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0365.3862.780.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0370.8368.070.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0348.0045.69-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0364.0064.280.000.01
UABCUSA0.050.0380.0078.010.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0388.0084.240.030.02