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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Savannah St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:294.5
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:155
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:211
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11152.00.01%
16-12164.70.09%
15-13177.40.34%
14-14197.31.21%
13-15223.33.72%
12-16245.07.77%
11-17266.213.37%
10-18286.718.28%
9-19304.019.61%
8-20318.616.29%
7-21329.511.40%
6-22337.75.31%
5-23343.91.99%
4-24346.90.55%
3-25349.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Savannah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCA76-53L0%0.0
11-16Marshall (166.9)CUSAA66-47L0%0.0
11-20Winthrop (213.6)BSthH59-58W100%0.0
11-22Cleveland St. (169.8)HorzH87-83W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (12.7)ACCA87-26L0%0.0
11-28Jacksonville St. (285.6)OVCA0-031%-5.9
12-1Winthrop (213.6)BSthA0-016%-12.1
12-6Indiana (88.9)B10A0-02%-24.1
12-8Miami FL (9.4)ACCA0-00%-32.8
12-14Kansas St. (68.1)B12A0-02%-25.2
12-16Tulane (236.1)AmerA0-016%-12.1
1-3LSU (88.5)SECA0-03%-22.4
1-10North Carolina A&T (322.8)MEACA0-039%-3.5
1-12North Carolina Central (188.3)MEACA0-010%-15.1
1-17Maryland Eastern Shore (321.1)MEACA0-039%-3.5
1-19Delaware St. (247.3)MEACA0-022%-9.4
1-24Hampton (273.3)MEACH0-044%-1.8
1-26Norfolk St. (238.1)MEACH0-040%-3.1
1-31North Carolina A&T (322.8)MEACH0-062%3.7
2-7Morgan St. (279.1)MEACA0-022%-9.3
2-9Coppin St. (283.4)MEACA0-034%-5.0
2-14South Carolina St. (285.3)MEACH0-053%0.9
2-21Howard (258.4)MEACH0-044%-1.9
2-23Florida A&M (344.8)MEACH0-074%7.8
2-25Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACH0-066%5.1
2-28South Carolina St. (285.3)MEACA0-030%-6.3
3-2North Carolina Central (188.3)MEACH0-025%-8.0
3-5Florida A&M (344.8)MEACA0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Savannah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Savannah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Savannah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Savannah St.MEAC36.2526.2140.0036.02-7.25-7.33
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.180.0020.18-0.00-2.50
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.180.0025.60-0.00-2.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.160.0063.48-0.001.12
South Carolina St.MEAC0.004.140.0033.97-0.00-1.33
WinthropBSth10.003.6050.0055.600.000.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.5220.0030.70-0.00-0.97
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4214.2928.88-0.00-1.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.420.0026.11-0.00-1.16
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4233.3344.96-0.00-0.24
HowardMEAC0.002.4125.0046.11-0.00-0.19
HamptonMEAC0.002.3920.0044.70-0.00-0.25
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.3925.0046.54-0.00-0.17
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.390.0037.61-0.00-0.59
Jacksonville St.OVC4.582.0125.0030.04-2.29-0.80
Eastern KentuckyOVC10.001.970.0059.33-10.000.37
LouisvilleACC11.671.96100.0078.8111.671.13
Miami FLACC0.001.91100.0080.660.001.17
Cleveland St.Horz10.001.8850.0047.130.00-0.11
MarshallCUSA11.251.8850.0047.990.00-0.08
IndianaB100.001.8180.0056.760.000.25
Kansas St.B120.001.7960.0055.790.000.21
LSUSEC0.001.7960.0054.840.000.17
TulaneAmer0.001.7966.6736.800.00-0.47
RadfordBSth0.000.2333.3352.31-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.2266.6754.040.000.02
ClemsonACC1.670.2260.0052.120.330.01
VirginiaACC0.000.21100.0075.610.000.11
MarylandB100.000.20100.0072.100.000.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.200.0066.25-0.000.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0025.13-0.00-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1860.0068.250.000.07
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1880.0074.570.000.09
East Tennessee St.SC1.670.1766.6757.980.560.03
CampbellBSth0.000.170.0031.79-0.00-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1733.3350.48-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1740.0058.90-0.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.170.0034.82-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1620.0053.43-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1666.6744.670.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.16100.0069.870.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.1666.6760.350.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.150.0032.66-0.00-0.05
Texas TechB120.000.1575.0045.460.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1550.0043.100.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.15100.0074.680.000.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1550.0031.510.00-0.05
High PointBSth0.000.1475.0056.990.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.1425.0029.87-0.00-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.1425.0020.71-0.00-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.000.140.0022.61-0.00-0.08
IUPUISum0.000.1440.0031.23-0.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.13100.0059.140.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0017.79-0.00-0.08
BelmontOVC0.000.1375.0071.930.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1350.0035.490.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.120.0026.74-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1266.6741.550.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1240.0050.32-0.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0024.22-0.00-0.06
NJITind0.000.1220.0028.08-0.00-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1240.0052.47-0.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1240.0047.31-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.12100.0065.710.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1260.0047.180.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0070.280.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.1250.0050.280.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1020.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0028.11-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0055.300.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0966.6763.740.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.09100.0055.960.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0030.030.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0070.310.000.04
TowsonCAA0.000.0980.0058.000.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3333.84-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0067.350.000.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0925.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.090.0051.20-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0049.930.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0048.890.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.000.000.03
BaylorB120.000.09100.0070.500.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0089.550.000.07
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0055.820.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0038.95-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0960.0059.230.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0966.6769.740.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.030.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0925.0040.73-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0071.450.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0980.0067.890.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0980.0067.040.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0043.100.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0067.070.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.71-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0966.6771.550.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0039.52-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0060.560.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0766.6754.260.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0032.36-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3368.48-0.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0032.89-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0045.33-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0066.760.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0064.740.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3340.07-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0047.410.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0020.18-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.95-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.180.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0050.30-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.41-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC1.670.0675.0073.890.830.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0625.0037.50-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0067.55-0.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6739.910.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0620.0029.38-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0675.0050.700.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.780.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0640.0038.29-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0055.470.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.400.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0081.020.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0044.83-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.350.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0666.6750.750.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6760.800.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6756.850.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0055.110.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.120.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0625.0052.70-0.000.00
DukeACC0.000.06100.0084.950.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
MinnesotaB101.250.0666.6759.490.420.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0052.730.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.980.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.400.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6769.270.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0055.20-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3336.17-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0366.6762.900.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.770.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0366.6754.750.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0056.430.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.72-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0066.91-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.160.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0025.530.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.32-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.250.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0030.42-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0018.08-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0070.940.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.91-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.540.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0053.310.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.34-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.550.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0073.990.000.01
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.91-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.02-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0071.500.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.63-0.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.26-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0029.35-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0070.870.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0050.46-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0325.0025.51-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.58-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0380.0058.990.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3336.66-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.41-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0375.0073.980.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0057.240.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0046.74-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.72-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.080.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.460.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0044.79-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.01-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.140.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0078.020.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0054.27-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0084.260.000.02