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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:327.0
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:314
Current SOS:314
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22327.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Virginia (3.0)ACCA86-48L0%0.0
11-16Towson (150.0)CAAA69-61L0%0.0
11-18Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAA79-48L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (308.0)BSthA54-59W100%0.0
11-28High Point (158.0)BSthA82-72L0%0.0
12-2Wagner (185.0)NECA62-61L0%0.0
12-6Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA87-66L0%0.0
12-20Manhattan (229.0)MAACH66-78L0%0.0
12-23Rider (242.0)MAACH49-71L0%0.0
12-28UC Riverside (267.0)BWH72-81L0%0.0
12-31Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA80-68L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA88-74L0%0.0
1-6Hampton (155.0)MEACH80-83L0%0.0
1-9Delaware St. (345.0)MEACH63-58W100%0.0
1-11Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA69-65L0%0.0
1-16Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA72-65L0%0.0
1-18Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA62-50L0%0.0
1-30Howard (328.0)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
2-1Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH83-43W100%0.0
2-6Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA57-49L0%0.0
2-8South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA82-78L0%0.0
2-13Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA79-73L0%0.0
2-15Hampton (155.0)MEACA87-79L0%0.0
2-20North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH59-73L0%0.0
2-22North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH72-51W100%0.0
2-24Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH89-72W100%0.0
2-27Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA72-74W100%0.0
3-3Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH71-80L0%0.0
3-8Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACN58-65W100%0.0
3-9Hampton (155.0)MEACN83-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.2726.2726.9826.98-12.09-12.09
HamptonMEAC5.585.5862.9662.961.451.45
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.535.5325.0025.00-2.76-2.76
Norfolk St.MEAC4.054.0548.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Coppin St.MEAC3.973.9725.9325.93-1.91-1.91
South Carolina St.MEAC2.502.5053.3353.330.170.17
Delaware St.MEAC2.472.4717.2417.24-1.62-1.62
HowardMEAC2.442.4434.4834.48-0.76-0.76
Savannah St.MEAC2.422.4246.4346.43-0.17-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.332.3332.1432.14-0.83-0.83
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.312.3133.3333.33-0.77-0.77
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.282.2837.9337.93-0.55-0.55
Florida A&MMEAC2.252.2519.2319.23-1.38-1.38
Old DominionCUSA1.831.8361.7661.760.430.43
UC RiversideBW1.781.7836.6736.67-0.48-0.48
RiderMAAC1.751.7537.5037.50-0.44-0.44
CampbellBSth1.731.7334.6234.62-0.53-0.53
TowsonCAA1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.721.7225.9325.93-0.83-0.83
CincinnatiAmer1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
ManhattanMAAC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
High PointBSth1.701.7062.9662.960.440.44
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.691.6971.4371.430.730.73
WagnerNEC1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
VirginiaACC1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
William & MaryCAA0.250.2562.0762.070.060.06
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
WinthropBSth0.200.2068.9768.970.080.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
AmericanPat0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.180.1823.3323.33-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1710.7110.71-0.13-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Kansas St.B120.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
SMUAmer0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1257.6957.690.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
PittsburghACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02