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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:337.0
Current RPI:337
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:325
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-14
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:320
Expected OOC SOS:243



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24337.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Penn St. (108.0)B10A61-48L0%0.0
11-17Towson (281.0)CAAH46-51L0%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA73-53L0%0.0
11-22Houston (239.0)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
11-25Elon (259.0)CAAN74-73L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (347.0)BSthN50-51W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCA83-63L0%0.0
12-6Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA85-65L0%0.0
12-8Hampton (251.0)MEACA62-58L0%0.0
12-16UC Irvine (88.0)BWH63-62W100%0.0
12-18Rider (140.0)MAACA62-48L0%0.0
12-20Manhattan (168.0)MAACA73-69L0%0.0
12-28Marquette (147.0)BEA81-53L0%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (234.0)BWA68-63L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA78-62L0%0.0
1-6Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA78-52L0%0.0
1-10Delaware St. (204.0)MEACA69-73W100%0.0
1-12Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH53-78L0%0.0
1-17Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH75-65W100%0.0
1-19Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH58-65L0%0.0
1-31Howard (255.0)MEACA64-48L0%0.0
2-2Coppin St. (311.0)MEACA80-67L0%0.0
2-7Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH67-57W100%0.0
2-9South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH55-43W100%0.0
2-14Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH73-70W100%0.0
2-16Hampton (251.0)MEACH65-93L0%0.0
2-21North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA74-59L0%0.0
2-23North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA60-57L0%0.0
2-28Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH77-88L0%0.0
3-5Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA89-76L0%0.0
3-9Hampton (251.0)MEACN91-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.1126.1121.9521.95-14.65-14.65
HamptonMEAC5.445.4443.3343.33-0.73-0.73
Norfolk St.MEAC3.873.8758.6258.620.670.67
Coppin St.MEAC3.803.8017.8617.86-2.44-2.44
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.803.8053.3353.330.250.25
Delaware St.MEAC2.392.3950.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC2.282.2842.8642.86-0.33-0.33
South Carolina St.MEAC2.272.2730.0030.00-0.91-0.91
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.222.2227.5927.59-0.99-0.99
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.222.2275.0075.001.111.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.172.1720.6920.69-1.27-1.27
Savannah St.MEAC2.162.1625.0025.00-1.08-1.08
Florida A&MMEAC2.142.147.147.14-1.83-1.83
UC IrvineBW1.781.7863.3363.330.470.47
TowsonCAA1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
UC RiversideBW1.741.7439.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Virginia TechACC1.741.7431.2531.25-0.65-0.65
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
ElonCAA1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
ManhattanMAAC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
RiderMAAC1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
HoustonAmer1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Saint Mary'sWCC1.641.6467.8667.860.590.59
LibertyBSth1.641.6414.8114.81-1.15-1.15
Northern IowaMVC1.641.6490.6290.621.331.33
Penn St.B101.641.6451.5251.520.050.05
MarquetteBE1.611.6138.7138.71-0.36-0.36
HawaiiBW0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
HofstraCAA0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.200.2056.0056.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.190.1940.7440.74-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.190.1979.3179.310.110.11
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
DelawareCAA0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
FordhamA100.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
IllinoisB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
IonaMAAC0.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
IowaB100.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
RadfordBSth0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
North FloridaASun0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1327.2727.27-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
DrexelCAA0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.130.1390.6290.620.100.10
BradleyMVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.130.1394.1294.120.110.11
SyracuseACC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
UMBCAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.08-0.08
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
PacificWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
NavyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.070.0791.1891.180.060.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01