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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:236.0
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:337
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-7
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:309



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15236.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACN71-59W100%0.0
11-10Old Dominion (318.0)CAAA72-61L0%0.0
11-11Holy Cross (251.0)PatN74-73L0%0.0
11-16South Carolina (222.0)SECA87-71L0%0.0
11-29Liberty (288.0)BSthA62-67W100%0.0
12-1Virginia Military Inst (302.0)BSthA80-81W100%0.0
12-16Illinois St. (117.0)MVCA87-68L0%0.0
12-19Virginia (76.0)ACCA75-57L0%0.0
12-27Loyola Marymount (211.0)WCCA79-62L0%0.0
12-29San Diego (165.0)WCCA66-63L0%0.0
1-5Saint Joseph's (82.0)A10H60-70L0%0.0
1-12South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH76-60W100%0.0
1-14Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH70-78L0%0.0
1-19Hampton (287.0)MEACA78-80W100%0.0
1-21Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACA73-71L0%0.0
1-26North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACA52-55W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina Central (155.0)MEACA69-61L0%0.0
2-2Hampton (287.0)MEACH62-64L0%0.0
2-4Norfolk St. (178.0)MEACH59-64L0%0.0
2-9Coppin St. (313.0)MEACA51-80W100%0.0
2-11Howard (334.0)MEACA51-53W100%0.0
2-16Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACA55-87W100%0.0
2-18Delaware St. (263.0)MEACA52-50L0%0.0
2-23High Point (249.0)BSthA68-75W100%0.0
2-27Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH86-68W100%0.0
3-2Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACH58-45W100%0.0
3-4Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH66-47W100%0.0
3-7Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH78-67W100%0.0
3-11South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACN61-52W100%0.0
3-14Savannah St. (166.0)MEACN61-64W100%0.0
3-15Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACN82-71W100%0.0
3-16North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACN54-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.2326.2358.3358.334.374.37
Delaware St.MEAC3.873.8741.3841.38-0.67-0.67
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.833.8353.1253.120.240.24
Norfolk St.MEAC3.793.7963.3363.331.011.01
Coppin St.MEAC3.793.7924.1424.14-1.96-1.96
Savannah St.MEAC3.783.7855.1755.170.390.39
HamptonMEAC3.773.7744.8344.83-0.39-0.39
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.753.757.697.69-3.18-3.18
South Carolina St.MEAC3.733.7315.3815.38-2.58-2.58
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.362.3638.7138.71-0.53-0.53
HowardMEAC2.332.3321.4321.43-1.33-1.33
Florida A&MMEAC2.252.2521.4321.43-1.29-1.29
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.252.2566.6766.670.750.75
LibertyBSth1.731.7338.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Virginia Military InstBSth1.691.6940.7440.74-0.31-0.31
High PointBSth1.691.6955.5655.560.190.19
Old DominionCAA1.671.6713.7913.79-1.21-1.21
South CarolinaSEC1.621.6241.9441.94-0.26-0.26
Texas San AntonioWAC1.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
Holy CrossPat1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
Saint Joseph'sA101.611.6156.6756.670.220.22
Loyola MarymountWCC1.611.6129.0329.03-0.68-0.68
San DiegoWCC1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
VirginiaACC1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
LongwoodBSth0.260.2619.3519.35-0.16-0.16
CampbellBSth0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
RadfordBSth0.260.2634.4834.48-0.08-0.08
MarylandACC0.210.2164.7164.710.060.06
AmericanPat0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
William & MaryCAA0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.160.1648.0048.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Central FloridaCUSA0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
NavyPat0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.140.1438.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
IowaB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DelawareCAA0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
RichmondA100.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.120.1293.7593.750.110.11
PepperdineWCC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
AlbanyAE0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
OhioMAC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
ColgatePat0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
North FloridaASun0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
South Carolina UpstateASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Seton HallBE0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
LafayettePat0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
DrakeMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0740.7440.74-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
NC GreensboroSC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
SeattleWAC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Utah St.WAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0610.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
LehighPat0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RutgersBE0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.020.0218.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
OregonP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0285.1985.190.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00