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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:326.0
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:349
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-10
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:337
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16326.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Houston (54.0)AmerA93-52L0%0.0
11-15Towson (88.0)CAAH72-78L0%0.0
11-19Campbell (246.0)BSthH82-66W100%0.0
11-23Brown (284.0)IvyA81-75L0%0.0
11-26Bowling Green (225.0)MACA90-58L0%0.0
11-28High Point (236.0)BSthH61-62L0%0.0
12-3Rutgers (177.0)B10A72-58L0%0.0
12-6Manhattan (263.0)MAACH85-82W100%0.0
12-10Wagner (244.0)NECH66-68L0%0.0
12-21Penn St. (101.0)B10A96-55L0%0.0
12-26Loyola Marymount (153.0)WCCA70-49L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA82-61L0%0.0
1-4Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH58-56W100%0.0
1-7Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACA63-69W100%0.0
1-10Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA59-62W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH82-53W100%0.0
1-21Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA74-61L0%0.0
1-23South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACA75-77W100%0.0
1-28Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA74-76W100%0.0
1-30Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH77-60W100%0.0
2-4North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH62-68L0%0.0
2-11Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH45-56L0%0.0
2-13Howard (337.0)MEACA70-67L0%0.0
2-18Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH83-75W100%0.0
2-20Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA54-65W100%0.0
2-25Hampton (283.0)MEACH77-70W100%0.0
2-27Coppin St. (336.0)MEACH71-66W100%0.0
3-2Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA67-66L0%0.0
3-9Howard (337.0)MEACN65-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.1326.1345.7445.74-2.23-2.23
HowardMEAC4.124.1220.0020.00-2.47-2.47
Florida A&MMEAC4.054.0519.2319.23-2.49-2.49
Delaware St.MEAC4.034.0325.0025.00-2.02-2.02
Coppin St.MEAC4.034.0325.0025.00-2.01-2.01
Savannah St.MEAC3.973.9740.0040.00-0.79-0.79
Norfolk St.MEAC2.492.4950.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC2.462.4632.1432.14-0.88-0.88
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.452.4527.5927.59-1.10-1.10
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.442.4472.4172.411.091.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.422.4235.4835.48-0.70-0.70
HamptonMEAC2.392.3944.4444.44-0.27-0.27
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.392.393.453.45-2.22-2.22
CampbellBSth1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
High PointBSth1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
Penn St.B101.781.7843.7543.75-0.22-0.22
RutgersB101.781.7841.9441.94-0.29-0.29
Loyola MarymountWCC1.751.7546.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
Bowling GreenMAC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
BrownIvy1.721.7237.0437.04-0.45-0.45
HoustonAmer1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
ManhattanMAAC1.721.7232.2632.26-0.61-0.61
TowsonCAA1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
WagnerNEC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.200.2080.0080.000.120.12
IowaB100.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1810.0010.00-0.14-0.14
RiderMAAC0.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
MarylandB100.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
BYUWCC0.150.1566.6766.670.050.05
LibertyBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.150.1510.7110.71-0.11-0.11
RadfordBSth0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
HarvardIvy0.140.1461.5461.540.030.03
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
MichiganB100.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Central ConnecticutNEC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.090.09
DrexelCAA0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
AmericanPat0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
NorthwesternB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
BryantNEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
PacificWCC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
OregonP120.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01