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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:319.2
Current RPI:330
Expected SOS:349
Current SOS:344
Current Record:6-10
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:4-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-10
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10237.70.03%
17-11255.50.45%
16-12271.52.21%
15-13287.97.57%
14-14303.715.86%
13-15316.623.29%
12-16327.023.01%
11-17334.716.02%
10-18339.88.01%
9-19343.22.95%
8-20345.70.51%
7-21347.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Houston (57.5)AmerA93-52L0%0.0
11-15Towson (127.0)CAAH72-78L0%0.0
11-19Campbell (272.5)BSthH82-66W100%0.0
11-23Brown (268.5)IvyA81-75L0%0.0
11-26Bowling Green (257.3)MACA90-58L0%0.0
11-28High Point (253.8)BSthH61-62L0%0.0
12-3Rutgers (172.2)B10A72-58L0%0.0
12-6Manhattan (240.1)MAACH85-82W100%0.0
12-10Wagner (259.6)NECH66-68L0%0.0
12-21Penn St. (89.2)B10A96-55L0%0.0
12-26Loyola Marymount (173.3)WCCA70-49L0%0.0
12-29Cal St. Northridge (262.6)BWA82-61L0%0.0
1-4Norfolk St. (311.5)MEACH58-56W100%0.0
1-7Bethune Cookman (346.3)MEACA63-69W100%0.0
1-10Florida A&M (348.3)MEACA59-62W100%0.0
1-16North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACH82-53W100%0.0
1-21Savannah St. (325.9)MEACA0-049%-0.2
1-23South Carolina St. (302.4)MEACA0-044%-1.6
1-28Coppin St. (327.7)MEACA0-059%2.5
1-30Florida A&M (348.3)MEACH0-079%8.9
2-4North Carolina Central (193.4)MEACH0-021%-9.0
2-11Delaware St. (322.0)MEACH0-069%5.5
2-13Howard (324.7)MEACA0-040%-2.8
2-18Savannah St. (325.9)MEACH0-071%6.0
2-20Delaware St. (322.0)MEACA0-048%-0.7
2-25Hampton (307.5)MEACH0-056%1.7
2-27Coppin St. (327.7)MEACH0-078%8.7
3-2Maryland Eastern Shore (302.8)MEACA0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.4626.1438.2445.46-6.23-2.37
Delaware St.MEAC0.194.1617.6528.71-0.12-1.77
Florida A&MMEAC3.224.1513.3320.74-2.36-2.43
Coppin St.MEAC0.294.1322.2225.16-0.16-2.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.294.1225.0031.20-0.15-1.55
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.222.4613.3325.28-2.36-1.22
HowardMEAC0.102.4312.5027.36-0.07-1.10
Norfolk St.MEAC3.222.4320.0037.10-1.93-0.63
HamptonMEAC0.092.4326.6740.01-0.04-0.49
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.122.430.0014.96-3.12-1.70
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.102.4260.0072.560.021.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.092.4012.5032.65-0.07-0.83
South Carolina St.MEAC0.102.3914.2928.18-0.07-1.04
CampbellBSth3.221.8546.6744.23-0.21-0.21
High PointBSth3.221.8533.3340.05-1.07-0.37
Penn St.B103.211.8555.5648.140.36-0.07
RutgersB103.211.8452.9440.930.19-0.33
Bowling GreenMAC3.221.8231.2532.90-1.21-0.62
Loyola MarymountWCC3.221.8243.7542.26-0.40-0.28
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.221.8233.3342.08-1.07-0.29
BrownIvy3.121.7943.7540.79-0.39-0.33
HoustonAmer3.121.7966.6766.961.040.61
ManhattanMAAC3.121.7936.8437.52-0.82-0.45
TowsonCAA3.121.7950.0053.040.000.11
WagnerNEC3.121.7933.3345.60-1.04-0.16
East CarolinaAmer0.270.2247.3741.50-0.01-0.04
IowaB100.090.2255.0049.300.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.2041.1849.23-0.03-0.00
WinthropBSth0.270.2075.0075.420.140.10
St. Francis NYNEC0.170.1915.7920.51-0.12-0.11
JacksonvilleASun0.290.1652.9450.590.020.00
LibertyBSth0.280.1647.0651.38-0.020.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.1646.6747.54-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.270.1657.8952.960.040.01
St. John'sBE0.280.1645.0038.54-0.03-0.04
WisconsinB100.180.1583.3381.320.120.10
NiagaraMAAC0.350.1526.3227.72-0.17-0.07
AkronMAC0.090.1583.3376.940.060.08
CincinnatiAmer0.350.1588.8986.560.270.11
HofstraCAA0.160.1542.1143.49-0.03-0.02
IndianaB100.170.1568.4264.610.060.04
MarylandB100.080.1588.8973.830.060.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1320.0030.55-0.06-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1362.5060.090.020.03
LongwoodBSth0.200.1325.0023.83-0.10-0.07
PresbyterianBSth0.200.1312.5013.05-0.15-0.10
RadfordBSth0.000.1341.1844.82-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1361.1169.300.020.05
SamfordSC0.290.1364.7160.050.090.03
StetsonASun0.200.1329.4130.28-0.08-0.05
ClemsonACC0.100.1361.1159.230.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1335.0039.76-0.05-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.290.1327.7832.97-0.13-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.1311.1116.28-0.21-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.280.1335.2928.97-0.08-0.05
HawaiiBW0.100.1343.7546.21-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1340.0050.05-0.020.00
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1375.0074.450.090.06
Stony BrookAE0.260.1355.5654.430.030.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.1341.1846.85-0.05-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.1373.6867.200.040.04
BYUWCC0.090.1370.0068.710.040.05
ConnecticutAmer0.270.1235.2941.77-0.08-0.02
HarvardIvy0.080.1258.3361.560.010.03
DrexelCAA0.180.1233.3333.71-0.06-0.04
UCFAmer0.180.1277.7867.020.100.04
UMBCAE0.080.1262.5058.830.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.1264.7156.100.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1237.5044.96-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.1233.3330.90-0.03-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.1280.0077.810.000.07
PurdueB100.100.1278.9576.890.060.06
MichiganB100.080.1263.1658.150.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.1088.8987.310.070.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1063.1660.780.030.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.200.1040.0040.81-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.090.1060.0066.110.020.03
BryantNEC0.190.1021.0533.56-0.11-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.1025.0029.54-0.05-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1052.9455.050.010.01
PortlandWCC0.190.1047.0640.46-0.01-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.190.1050.0043.680.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.0927.7830.73-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0943.7543.71-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0946.1546.15-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.090.0936.8435.66-0.02-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0920.0024.53-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.0988.8986.040.140.07
GeorgetownBE0.000.0952.6348.210.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0963.1658.020.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.090.0925.0029.15-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.180.0947.0649.89-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0952.6348.070.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0961.1163.070.020.02
MaristMAAC0.170.0931.5829.24-0.06-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.170.0942.1141.75-0.03-0.01
George MasonA100.250.0964.7156.510.070.01
NorthwesternB100.170.0978.9569.160.100.03
IllinoisB100.000.0961.1153.360.000.01
IonaMAAC0.160.0960.0063.140.030.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0978.9570.150.050.04
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0752.9451.020.010.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0778.9582.980.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.100.0741.1837.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0737.5037.69-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0770.5973.700.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0764.7161.830.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0726.3236.97-0.05-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0755.5656.000.010.01
OregonP120.000.0788.8983.420.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0716.6713.65-0.00-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0758.8264.380.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0737.5051.21-0.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0735.2944.13-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.100.0752.9454.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0752.6360.240.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0721.4330.89-0.06-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0713.3327.07-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.200.0744.4442.60-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0723.5321.80-0.05-0.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0718.7527.05-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0770.5960.550.040.01
Boise St.MWC0.190.0662.5063.120.050.02
ProvidenceBE0.190.0665.0055.280.060.01
MassachusettsA100.190.0663.1660.390.050.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.0664.7162.600.060.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.0670.5964.080.080.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0677.7862.530.050.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4323.06-0.00-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.06100.0097.320.090.06
PennIvy0.090.0642.8647.98-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.090.0622.2221.17-0.05-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0663.1660.550.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0647.3745.83-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.090.0660.0065.720.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.190.0644.4443.57-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.080.0652.9438.780.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.0660.0053.460.040.00
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0652.9450.600.010.00
BucknellPat0.180.0670.0071.890.070.03
ColgatePat0.180.0621.0527.27-0.10-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.0631.5832.58-0.06-0.02
NevadaMWC0.170.0684.2178.680.120.04
Rhode IslandA100.170.0664.7167.120.050.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0635.2937.32-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0662.5062.710.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0028.40-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3340.46-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0658.8264.790.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
UtahP120.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0677.7877.270.000.03
AlbanyAE0.170.0652.6358.980.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0647.3734.50-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0661.1162.280.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.170.0661.1147.020.04-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0673.6869.690.040.02
ElonCAA0.080.0650.0051.340.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0626.3229.57-0.04-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0647.0648.10-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0637.5034.55-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0663.1659.530.020.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6767.550.000.02
South DakotaSum0.170.0655.0054.820.020.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0652.9452.870.010.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0622.2220.60-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0658.8251.180.010.00
DetroitHorz0.170.0616.6723.07-0.11-0.03
FordhamA100.160.0638.8935.26-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.170.0663.1657.700.040.01
NebraskaB100.000.0647.0641.67-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0650.0053.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0660.0061.270.020.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0655.5656.750.010.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0640.0045.18-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0452.9458.360.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0450.0051.660.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0482.3574.990.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0457.8952.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0328.5731.47-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0377.7862.260.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0361.1157.870.000.01
ButlerBE0.100.0384.2178.340.070.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0312.5022.04-0.07-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0331.2545.45-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0361.1159.670.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0355.5660.070.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5733.61-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0370.5958.250.040.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0329.4125.93-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.100.0344.4446.61-0.01-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.0357.8958.030.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0352.9450.580.010.00
StanfordP120.100.0355.5648.060.01-0.00
The CitadelSC0.100.0333.3328.99-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0395.0089.690.090.03
UMass LowellAE0.100.0340.0040.47-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.100.0352.9451.300.010.00
VMISC0.100.0313.3315.24-0.07-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0326.3232.63-0.05-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0323.0830.70-0.05-0.01
MaineAE0.090.0320.0020.95-0.06-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0388.2484.520.070.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0340.0038.59-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0338.8942.49-0.02-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.090.0357.1457.210.010.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0311.7618.03-0.07-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0357.8957.540.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0368.7570.270.030.01
IUPUISum0.000.0338.8943.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0352.6352.920.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0364.7169.700.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0366.6761.530.000.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0384.2176.540.060.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0327.7824.32-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0318.7524.05-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0373.6870.630.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0347.3745.06-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.036.2511.88-0.08-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0377.7870.290.050.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0356.2551.810.000.00
DePaulBE0.090.0342.1130.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0353.3356.530.010.00
Green BayHorz0.090.0352.9450.950.010.00
HartfordAE0.090.0330.0028.54-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0347.0646.22-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.090.0350.0055.770.000.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0372.2274.630.040.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0317.6535.33-0.05-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0346.6738.45-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0366.6758.230.030.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0338.8939.92-0.02-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0333.3333.28-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.080.0375.0077.360.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0331.2536.88-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.080.0377.7873.860.050.01
DuquesneA100.080.0347.3741.47-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0389.4779.540.060.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0363.1651.610.020.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0383.3380.700.050.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0361.1156.230.020.00