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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:225.0
Current RPI:225
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:250
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-5
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:59



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16225.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Ohio St. (24.0)B10A89-50L0%0.0
11-12Towson (95.0)CAAA95-75L0%0.0
11-14San Diego (156.0)WCCH61-68L0%0.0
11-20Ohio (87.0)MACH62-65L0%0.0
11-22La Salle (98.0)A10N78-59L0%0.0
11-23Vanderbilt (120.0)SECN66-75L0%0.0
11-25Marist (250.0)MAACN74-67W100%0.0
11-29Maryland (78.0)ACCA89-62L0%0.0
12-7Howard (323.0)MEACH87-58W100%0.0
12-18High Point (172.0)BSthH85-74W100%0.0
12-27Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA86-80L0%0.0
12-29Oregon (28.0)P12A97-76L0%0.0
1-2UC Irvine (111.0)BWA75-63L0%0.0
1-11South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH73-56W100%0.0
1-18Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA70-87W100%0.0
1-20Hampton (204.0)MEACA71-80W100%0.0
1-25North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA68-67L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA53-52L0%0.0
2-1Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH77-64W100%0.0
2-3Hampton (204.0)MEACH94-92W100%0.0
2-8Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH53-64L0%0.0
2-10Coppin St. (261.0)MEACA77-82W100%0.0
2-17Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA72-88W100%0.0
2-19Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH78-69W100%0.0
2-24Delaware St. (329.0)MEACA59-56L0%0.0
3-1Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH65-61W100%0.0
3-3Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH73-78L0%0.0
3-6Howard (323.0)MEACA66-68W100%0.0
3-13Florida A&M (295.0)MEACN81-68W100%0.0
3-14Coppin St. (261.0)MEACN79-64W100%0.0
3-15North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACN71-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.3026.3050.3550.350.190.19
Coppin St.MEAC5.555.5539.2939.29-1.19-1.19
HamptonMEAC3.973.9764.2964.291.141.14
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.953.9582.7682.762.592.59
Norfolk St.MEAC3.953.9553.5753.570.280.28
HowardMEAC3.933.9320.6920.69-2.30-2.30
Delaware St.MEAC3.893.8923.0823.08-2.10-2.10
Florida A&MMEAC3.853.8539.2939.29-0.82-0.82
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.392.3918.5218.52-1.51-1.51
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.262.2617.2417.24-1.48-1.48
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.262.2623.3323.33-1.20-1.20
South Carolina St.MEAC2.202.2025.9325.93-1.06-1.06
MarylandACC1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
UC IrvineBW1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Ohio St.B101.661.6672.7372.730.760.76
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.661.6643.7543.75-0.21-0.21
MaristMAAC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
OregonP121.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
OhioMAC1.641.6465.6265.620.510.51
High PointBSth1.611.6151.8551.850.060.06
La SalleA101.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
San DiegoWCC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
VanderbiltSEC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC0.780.7836.6736.67-0.21-0.21
Oregon St.P120.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
NJITind0.220.2236.0036.00-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
DelawareCAA0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
ToledoMAC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
AkronMAC0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
HawaiiBW0.180.1862.0762.070.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
WinthropBSth0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
RadfordBSth0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
CaliforniaP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
USCP120.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Miami FLACC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
AmericanPat0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
WagnerNEC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00