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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:279.1
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:330
Current SOS:102
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-8127.00.01%
19-10127.00.03%
18-11157.40.17%
17-12174.50.64%
16-13193.21.97%
15-14213.44.65%
14-15231.88.21%
13-16251.513.69%
12-17270.717.19%
11-18288.317.60%
10-19304.115.22%
9-20316.810.61%
8-21327.85.86%
7-22337.02.78%
6-23341.31.03%
5-24346.70.25%
4-25348.70.06%
3-26350.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Penn St. (130.5)B10A61-48L0%0.0
11-17Towson (153.7)CAAH46-51L0%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (46.3)MVCA73-53L0%0.0
11-22Houston (134.2)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
11-25Elon (220.4)CAAN74-73L0%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (242.4)ACCA0-030%-6.3
12-6Norfolk St. (238.1)MEACA0-035%-4.6
12-8Hampton (273.3)MEACA0-039%-3.3
12-16UC Irvine (103.2)BWH0-024%-8.6
12-18Rider (207.9)MAACA0-029%-6.6
12-20Manhattan (203.0)MAACA0-024%-8.6
12-28Marquette (172.6)BEA0-018%-11.2
12-30UC Riverside (299.6)BWA0-045%-1.6
1-2Cal St. Northridge (201.0)BWA0-027%-7.3
1-6Saint Mary's (42.3)WCCA0-05%-19.8
1-10Delaware St. (247.3)MEACA0-038%-3.7
1-12Maryland Eastern Shore (321.1)MEACH0-078%9.4
1-17Florida A&M (344.8)MEACH0-087%13.4
1-19Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACH0-082%10.8
1-31Howard (258.4)MEACA0-039%-3.4
2-2Coppin St. (283.4)MEACA0-052%0.7
2-7Savannah St. (294.5)MEACH0-078%9.3
2-9South Carolina St. (285.3)MEACH0-071%6.6
2-14Norfolk St. (238.1)MEACH0-058%2.6
2-16Hampton (273.3)MEACH0-063%3.9
2-21North Carolina Central (188.3)MEACA0-022%-9.5
2-23North Carolina A&T (322.8)MEACA0-057%2.2
2-28Coppin St. (283.4)MEACH0-074%7.9
3-6Maryland Eastern Shore (321.1)MEACA0-057%2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC30.7526.110.0043.65-30.75-3.32
Norfolk St.MEAC0.004.0225.0046.55-0.00-0.28
Coppin St.MEAC0.004.020.0026.84-0.00-1.86
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.004.0014.2929.77-0.00-1.62
HamptonMEAC0.004.0020.0044.80-0.00-0.42
HowardMEAC0.002.4225.0045.93-0.00-0.20
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3933.3345.54-0.00-0.21
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.350.0035.96-0.00-0.66
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.002.3320.0031.24-0.60-0.88
Florida A&MMEAC0.002.310.0021.63-0.00-1.31
Savannah St.MEAC0.002.3040.0033.47-0.00-0.76
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.002.300.0026.75-0.00-1.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.002.300.0064.41-0.000.66
TowsonCAA10.001.8875.0056.555.000.25
UC IrvineBW0.001.8733.3366.91-0.000.63
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.8540.0043.86-0.00-0.23
UC RiversideBW0.001.850.0028.40-0.00-0.80
Virginia TechACC1.001.8450.0030.180.00-0.73
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7825.0048.97-0.00-0.04
RiderMAAC0.001.7850.0047.060.00-0.10
ElonCAA10.001.7833.3340.97-3.33-0.32
Saint Mary'sWCC0.001.76100.0070.630.000.72
HoustonAmer10.001.7550.0058.940.000.31
Northern IowaMVC10.001.75100.0073.0610.000.81
Penn St.B1010.001.7580.0046.296.00-0.13
MarquetteBE0.001.7250.0035.990.00-0.48
HofstraCAA0.000.2460.0066.760.000.08
Cal PolyBW0.000.2150.0034.200.00-0.07
HawaiiBW0.000.2166.6754.720.000.02
NJITind0.000.2120.0028.08-0.00-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1825.0033.31-0.00-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1825.0052.70-0.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.180.0057.70-0.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.18100.0042.270.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1875.0047.770.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.18100.0072.230.000.08
MonmouthMAAC1.000.1850.0053.310.000.01
FordhamA100.830.170.0026.74-0.83-0.08
OregonP120.000.1560.0063.180.000.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1520.0050.95-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6754.040.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1540.0052.47-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.15100.0075.610.000.08
William & MaryCAA0.000.1575.0056.430.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.150.0031.98-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.15100.0065.710.000.05
DelawareCAA0.000.150.0018.08-0.00-0.09
IonaMAAC0.000.1575.0073.890.000.07
DrexelCAA0.000.1520.0035.41-0.00-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0060.560.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1233.3326.91-0.00-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.12100.0060.830.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0030.030.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.1266.6766.590.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1266.6754.750.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1266.6762.900.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.12100.0081.280.000.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1266.6747.140.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1266.6755.870.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1240.0033.22-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1233.3329.06-0.00-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1250.0055.650.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1220.0042.26-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.1233.3359.03-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0025.13-0.00-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1233.3340.46-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0074.680.000.06
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0078.020.000.07
IowaB100.000.1260.0064.290.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.1280.0067.890.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1266.6741.550.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.120.0028.76-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.11100.0055.470.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0059.140.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0933.3330.38-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0940.0067.55-0.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0966.6763.740.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.09100.0052.030.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.090.0031.74-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0975.0070.310.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0925.0039.42-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0975.0050.700.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.090.0050.30-0.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0933.3352.31-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.09100.0057.240.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0980.0071.450.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0940.0047.31-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.09100.0044.550.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0966.6738.430.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0072.100.000.04
AkronMAC0.830.0960.0066.000.170.03
CharlotteCUSA2.080.0960.0068.250.420.03
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.400.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0933.3333.84-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun1.000.0925.0048.23-0.50-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.090.0032.66-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0048.890.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.500.000.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0025.530.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC1.000.090.0030.42-1.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0960.0049.930.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0940.0039.52-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0980.0074.570.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0084.260.000.06
RutgersB100.000.0950.0024.400.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0980.0073.820.000.04
NavyPat0.000.0820.0031.41-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0833.3336.66-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0031.23-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0017.79-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0069.870.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.060.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.06100.0070.500.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0055.20-0.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6769.270.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0066.25-0.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0036.220.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0051.400.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0055.820.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0085.190.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0065.620.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.95-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3354.56-0.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0075.900.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0680.0063.110.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.45-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky1.000.060.0044.87-1.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0666.6766.740.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0084.950.000.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.06100.0049.350.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0048.940.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.06100.0087.570.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.98-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0027.00-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0065.470.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0675.0044.920.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0024.22-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0650.0041.110.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0650.0067.350.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0051.850.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0046.130.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0083.950.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0640.0047.10-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.830.0633.3336.17-0.28-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0680.0058.080.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.780.00-0.00
NorthwesternB101.250.06100.0043.951.25-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0052.120.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0650.0050.280.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.000.060.0067.43-1.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0660.0047.180.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.230.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6759.490.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.460.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0044.79-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.980.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.82-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.52-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0051.970.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3345.50-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.250.030.0038.35-1.25-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0050.520.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0325.0031.38-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0057.210.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0320.0026.30-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.190.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0030.040.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.72-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3340.07-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0375.0047.410.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0065.220.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.01-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0366.6772.710.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0055.960.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0316.6731.76-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0024.20-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
HarvardIvy1.670.0366.6774.280.560.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.78-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3353.13-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC1.670.0333.3368.48-0.560.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0366.6739.910.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.20-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3330.02-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.25-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.140.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0043.63-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
AlabamaSEC1.000.0380.0058.990.600.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6751.550.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3337.42-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0029.87-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.79-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.980.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.61-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0045.15-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0070.280.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0380.0067.040.000.01
USCP120.830.0350.0028.900.00-0.01