live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Jan 27, 2015.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:325.7
Current RPI:327
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:309
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17275.00.01%
12-18284.00.60%
11-19298.93.61%
10-20311.011.96%
9-21320.423.27%
8-22328.128.10%
7-23334.521.29%
6-24339.69.09%
5-25343.61.89%
4-26346.20.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Penn St. (118.2)B10A61-48L0%0.0
11-17Towson (275.2)CAAH46-51L0%0.0
11-20Northern Iowa (21.7)MVCA73-53L0%0.0
11-22Houston (265.9)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
11-25Elon (247.1)CAAN74-73L0%0.0
11-26Liberty (344.6)BSthN50-51W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Tech (206.0)ACCA83-63L0%0.0
12-6Norfolk St. (140.8)MEACA85-65L0%0.0
12-8Hampton (298.8)MEACA62-58L0%0.0
12-16UC Irvine (114.7)BWH63-62W100%0.0
12-18Rider (156.4)MAACA62-48L0%0.0
12-20Manhattan (235.9)MAACA73-69L0%0.0
12-28Marquette (119.2)BEA81-53L0%0.0
12-30UC Riverside (262.8)BWA68-63L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (271.5)BWA78-62L0%0.0
1-6Saint Mary's (50.6)WCCA78-52L0%0.0
1-10Delaware St. (212.8)MEACA69-73W100%0.0
1-12Maryland Eastern Shore (189.3)MEACH53-78L0%0.0
1-17Florida A&M (350.7)MEACH75-65W100%0.0
1-19Bethune Cookman (338.2)MEACH58-65L0%0.0
1-31Howard (262.8)MEACA0-024%-7.6
2-2Coppin St. (319.3)MEACA0-042%-2.1
2-7Savannah St. (327.1)MEACH0-077%8.2
2-9South Carolina St. (302.6)MEACH0-067%4.9
2-14Norfolk St. (140.8)MEACH0-023%-8.1
2-16Hampton (298.8)MEACH0-052%0.7
2-21North Carolina Central (111.1)MEACA0-05%-17.9
2-23North Carolina A&T (332.0)MEACA0-043%-2.1
2-28Coppin St. (319.3)MEACH0-066%4.7
3-6Maryland Eastern Shore (189.3)MEACA0-015%-11.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.2926.0922.5028.84-14.46-11.04
Norfolk St.MEAC2.633.8855.0060.580.260.82
Coppin St.MEAC0.313.8810.5317.90-0.25-2.49
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.693.8652.3854.420.130.34
HamptonMEAC2.633.8536.8436.15-0.69-1.07
HowardMEAC0.202.3341.1843.22-0.03-0.32
Delaware St.MEAC2.502.3047.0651.61-0.150.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.442.2728.5732.27-0.19-0.80
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.742.2516.6728.01-1.83-0.99
Florida A&MMEAC2.682.220.004.77-2.68-2.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.252.2215.0022.52-0.17-1.22
Savannah St.MEAC0.252.2216.6725.31-0.17-1.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.252.2172.2277.160.111.20
TowsonCAA2.701.8136.8435.51-0.71-0.53
UC IrvineBW2.701.8156.2559.510.340.34
Virginia TechACC2.761.8142.1135.44-0.44-0.53
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.571.7921.0525.60-1.49-0.87
UC RiversideBW2.571.7835.2934.17-0.76-0.56
RiderMAAC2.571.7260.0061.150.510.38
ElonCAA2.631.7244.4442.15-0.29-0.27
ManhattanMAAC2.561.7244.4445.31-0.28-0.16
Saint Mary'sWCC2.571.7077.7873.031.430.78
HoustonAmer2.501.7033.3333.22-0.83-0.57
LibertyBSth2.561.6912.5018.25-1.92-1.08
Northern IowaMVC2.561.6989.4784.022.021.15
Penn St.B102.561.6963.1650.290.670.01
MarquetteBE2.501.6750.0044.770.00-0.17
HofstraCAA0.130.2366.6770.420.040.09
Cal PolyBW0.200.2050.0050.400.000.00
HawaiiBW0.270.2063.1657.240.070.03
NJITind0.120.2052.3854.480.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1842.1147.22-0.03-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1733.3331.75-0.05-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1742.1151.96-0.020.01
UC DavisBW0.130.1775.0066.580.070.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1747.0654.41-0.010.02
DelawareCAA0.270.1721.0522.40-0.16-0.10
NortheasternCAA0.190.1766.6767.010.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.190.1757.1458.280.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.1747.6250.23-0.010.00
FordhamA100.190.1725.0024.53-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.250.1752.3854.020.010.01
RadfordBSth0.140.1561.1161.500.030.03
OregonP120.210.1568.4259.940.080.03
North FloridaASun0.330.1452.6360.400.020.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1455.5654.880.020.01
IllinoisB100.060.1461.9060.520.010.03
USC UpstateASun0.130.1461.1162.860.030.04
William & MaryCAA0.130.1458.8262.360.020.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.1428.5733.14-0.03-0.05
IonaMAAC0.190.1471.4374.820.080.07
MaristMAAC0.190.1410.0013.98-0.15-0.10
VirginiaACC0.120.14100.0093.910.120.12
DrexelCAA0.190.1427.7829.47-0.08-0.06
WinthropBSth0.070.1243.7548.06-0.01-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.1268.7569.230.030.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.210.1225.0025.36-0.10-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1252.9459.040.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.1255.0060.930.020.03
DenverSum0.130.1245.0047.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.1257.8956.250.020.01
CreightonBE0.130.1242.8638.54-0.02-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.190.1243.7542.91-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.1275.0069.890.030.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.115.2610.56-0.11-0.09
BradleyMVC0.140.1130.0031.26-0.05-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.1173.6870.420.000.05
IowaB100.130.1165.0063.250.040.03
UMBCAE0.120.1115.0020.01-0.08-0.07
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1157.8962.600.020.03
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1130.0029.57-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.1147.3749.71-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1115.7923.08-0.09-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.130.1157.8956.850.020.02
SienaMAAC0.060.1142.1138.12-0.01-0.03
SyracuseACC0.130.1166.6758.640.040.02
DuquesneA100.120.1129.4127.47-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.070.1176.1976.820.030.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1158.8257.840.030.02
VillanovaBE0.060.1190.0084.460.050.08
CampbellBSth0.140.0926.3233.54-0.07-0.03
PacificWCC0.140.0938.8934.79-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.140.0916.6717.51-0.09-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.0950.0061.980.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.130.0945.0046.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0940.0041.95-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0910.0015.25-0.05-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0961.1160.510.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.0947.3750.39-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.0941.1838.34-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.200.0931.5830.50-0.07-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0973.6872.820.030.04
MemphisAmer0.130.0963.1661.500.030.02
AkronMAC0.060.0968.4263.800.020.02
MichiganB100.060.0960.0052.320.010.00
Notre DameACC0.060.0990.4884.130.050.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.0947.3741.10-0.01-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0935.2932.47-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.130.0911.7619.38-0.10-0.05
St. John'sBE0.130.0966.6760.540.040.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0960.0052.570.010.00
MarylandB100.000.0885.7177.510.000.05
LouisvilleACC0.130.0884.2177.810.090.05
Appalachian St.SB0.130.0844.4440.93-0.01-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.130.0842.1151.49-0.020.00
TempleAmer0.130.0865.0062.230.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.130.0835.2931.67-0.04-0.03
UCFAmer0.130.0844.4441.08-0.01-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.0814.2915.33-0.13-0.06
NorthwesternB100.130.0850.0043.500.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.190.0870.0065.430.080.03
Florida St.ACC0.130.0850.0044.140.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0878.9579.440.030.05
RutgersB100.190.0847.6238.01-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.130.0847.3742.86-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.190.0865.0063.270.060.02
NavyPat0.120.0831.5832.87-0.04-0.03
VCUA100.120.0885.0082.330.080.05
WisconsinB100.130.0890.0087.170.100.06
BucknellPat0.120.0850.0050.930.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0656.2555.440.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0621.0526.17-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0637.5045.86-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0638.1040.92-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0665.0067.630.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0656.2557.180.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0695.0094.580.060.05
PortlandWCC0.070.0652.6349.030.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0664.7161.610.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0626.3236.44-0.03-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0680.9576.320.040.03
ArizonaP120.140.0690.0087.200.110.04
Boise St.MWC0.130.0668.4269.390.050.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.140.0638.4633.55-0.03-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.130.0650.0047.490.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0652.6355.770.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0675.0075.760.070.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6721.95-0.04-0.03
AmericanPat0.060.0655.0056.700.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0673.6869.040.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0638.8942.63-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0673.6866.290.030.02
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0621.0521.30-0.07-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0661.1160.470.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0645.0057.04-0.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0652.6352.790.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.0647.0648.19-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0675.0068.280.030.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0616.6723.20-0.04-0.03
Arizona St.P120.130.0650.0052.240.000.00
George MasonA100.130.0629.4131.64-0.05-0.02
Texas TechB120.070.0655.0041.240.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0657.8948.620.01-0.00
DukeACC0.070.0689.4783.700.050.04
PennIvy0.130.0633.3334.01-0.04-0.02
PittsburghACC0.130.0660.0051.930.030.00
The CitadelSC0.130.0629.4131.64-0.05-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0645.0040.37-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0671.4370.480.000.02
DePaulBE0.070.0652.3843.990.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0615.7917.73-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0657.8959.570.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.0043.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0661.1158.480.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0633.3334.80-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.130.0625.0032.95-0.06-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0675.0065.100.030.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0668.4260.970.000.01
SMUAmer0.070.0678.9577.480.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.0631.5832.19-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.0037.55-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0682.3584.900.080.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0678.9573.560.040.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0689.4787.830.000.04
XavierBE0.070.0666.6765.790.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.0525.0031.42-0.06-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0540.0042.42-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0560.0056.680.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0561.1156.100.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0550.0055.570.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0358.8259.110.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.8956.170.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0323.5328.53-0.04-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0350.0051.870.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0372.2269.040.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0325.0037.83-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0350.0053.450.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0342.1138.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0378.9577.890.040.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0335.0031.73-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0357.1446.810.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0378.9569.070.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0322.2226.62-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0355.0052.120.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0361.1159.790.020.01
UtahP120.070.0383.3383.650.050.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0380.0072.610.040.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0335.2936.05-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.035.0012.05-0.06-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0343.7540.86-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0342.8642.72-0.01-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0371.4369.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0325.0025.67-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0373.6866.810.000.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0352.6353.110.000.00
MercerSC0.070.0347.3751.58-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0333.3330.12-0.02-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0335.2933.21-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0343.7552.28-0.010.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0338.8943.41-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0370.5968.940.030.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0344.4437.39-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0352.9453.050.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0323.5327.88-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0316.6722.20-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0373.6865.190.000.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0378.9573.820.040.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0363.1658.880.020.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0333.3335.67-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0328.5736.58-0.03-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0333.3334.35-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0364.2965.370.020.01
La SalleA100.060.0355.0053.300.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0316.6719.91-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0378.9580.820.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0338.8940.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0326.6730.22-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0336.3636.09-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0347.0649.60-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0365.0068.180.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0363.1654.270.020.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0352.9447.020.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0327.7828.15-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0042.940.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0350.0050.960.000.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0376.1969.610.030.01
HartfordAE0.060.0352.6350.830.000.00
KansasB120.060.0384.2176.020.040.01
LehighPat0.060.0350.0052.030.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0360.0049.470.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0361.9060.120.000.01
PurdueB100.060.0360.0056.870.010.00
USCP120.060.0347.3740.06-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.060.0331.5837.63-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0327.7832.09-0.03-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0385.0075.980.040.01