live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:276.6
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:193
Current Record:5-16
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Probability of Auto Bid:5.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:233
Expected OOC SOS:85



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16237.53.16%
11-17254.715.35%
10-18270.531.37%
9-19283.928.71%
8-20294.616.04%
7-21304.24.63%
6-22314.20.72%
5-23331.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Xavier (57.8)A10A74-63L0%0.0
11-14Murray St. (30.8)OVCH69-80L0%0.0
11-20Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)MWCA92-55L0%0.0
11-22Southern California (233.2)P12A65-62L0%0.0
11-25Cal Poly (194.2)BWN61-62L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee St. (156.7)OVCN69-64L0%0.0
12-3Ohio (65.3)MACA61-53L0%0.0
12-14MD Baltimore County (335.5)AEA60-73W100%0.0
12-21Loyola Marymount (109.2)WCCH69-45W100%0.0
12-28Saint Joseph's (50.7)A10A81-50L0%0.0
1-3San Francisco (154.3)WCCA87-74L0%0.0
1-7South Carolina St. (336.5)MEACA68-73W100%0.0
1-9Savannah St. (210.3)MEACA57-55L0%0.0
1-14Norfolk St. (130.0)MEACH89-90L0%0.0
1-16Hampton (310.6)MEACH68-56W100%0.0
1-21North Carolina A&T (272.6)MEACH61-62L0%0.0
1-23North Carolina Central (229.3)MEACH71-64W100%0.0
1-28Norfolk St. (130.0)MEACA76-59L0%0.0
1-30Hampton (310.6)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
2-4Coppin St. (215.7)MEACH86-88L0%0.0
2-6Howard (301.0)MEACH46-54L0%0.0
2-11Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACH0-088%12.6
2-13Delaware St. (273.1)MEACH0-067%4.7
2-18Liberty (310.4)BSthH0-076%7.6
2-22Coppin St. (215.7)MEACA0-031%-5.2
2-25Maryland Eastern Shore (319.8)MEACA0-071%6.0
2-27Delaware St. (273.1)MEACA0-043%-1.8
3-1Florida A&M (324.7)MEACA0-067%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.3426.2124.2135.18-13.58-7.77
HamptonMEAC5.214.2633.3336.26-1.74-1.17
Norfolk St.MEAC5.154.2666.6768.231.721.55
Delaware St.MEAC0.434.2438.8941.20-0.09-0.75
Coppin St.MEAC3.124.2338.8946.87-0.69-0.26
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.384.2319.0519.29-0.23-2.60
HowardMEAC2.982.5318.1822.88-1.90-1.38
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.612.3728.5732.44-1.12-0.83
South Carolina St.MEAC2.812.3415.0017.42-1.97-1.52
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.552.3344.4447.73-0.28-0.11
Savannah St.MEAC2.822.3352.3856.900.130.32
Florida A&MMEAC0.342.3322.7324.32-0.19-1.20
Tennessee St.OVC2.381.9254.5551.320.220.05
Saint Joseph'sA102.501.8960.8761.170.540.42
San FranciscoWCC2.551.8854.5552.050.230.08
Murray St.OVC2.431.88100.0094.362.431.67
Loyola MarymountWCC2.481.8561.9059.830.590.36
Southern CaliforniaP122.491.8521.7422.58-1.41-1.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC2.481.8581.8280.791.581.14
LibertyBSth0.101.8527.2727.44-0.05-0.83
Cal PolyBW2.481.8447.6255.21-0.120.19
OhioMAC2.441.8280.9576.391.510.96
XavierA102.431.8163.6462.440.660.45
MD Baltimore CountyAE2.381.7913.6414.99-1.73-1.25
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.340.6836.3640.96-0.09-0.12
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.330.2950.0051.750.000.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.210.2290.9187.780.180.17
AmericanPat0.260.2165.2263.790.080.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.170.2034.7838.74-0.05-0.04
CharlotteA100.230.1950.0049.460.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.1934.7832.05-0.02-0.07
Longwoodind0.220.1828.5725.79-0.09-0.09
RichmondA100.150.1850.0048.480.00-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.220.1627.2726.96-0.10-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.164.359.74-0.25-0.13
Georgia TechACC0.100.1639.1342.16-0.02-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.1647.8350.66-0.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.160.1681.8281.500.100.10
PortlandWCC0.210.1621.7421.75-0.12-0.09
William & MaryCAA0.160.1612.5013.42-0.12-0.11
St. LouisA100.160.1577.2777.700.090.08
Texas ChristianMWC0.200.1557.1449.570.03-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1332.0035.39-0.06-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1360.8759.850.020.03
IndianaB100.160.1375.0075.730.080.07
Morehead St.OVC0.210.1345.4547.09-0.02-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.160.1375.0076.020.080.07
PepperdineWCC0.210.1331.8233.75-0.08-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.110.1333.3333.82-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1328.5726.31-0.05-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1345.4541.17-0.01-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.1326.3229.64-0.10-0.05
NavyPat0.100.139.5213.17-0.08-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.050.1247.3742.13-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.110.1268.1867.980.040.04
HawaiiWAC0.210.1257.1453.020.030.01
WyomingMWC0.050.1276.1970.710.030.05
MarquetteBE0.210.1280.0076.670.120.07
DaytonA100.160.1260.8760.960.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1230.0034.18-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.200.1240.9134.45-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.120.1056.5253.940.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.1070.8364.530.030.03
WagnerNEC0.060.1082.6184.580.040.07
Loyola MDMAAC0.110.1078.2674.290.060.05
TowsonCAA0.110.104.005.27-0.11-0.09
IllinoisB100.110.1069.5761.840.040.02
PurdueB100.110.1062.5060.780.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1033.3334.54-0.06-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1047.6247.19-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1034.7838.43-0.03-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.1057.6958.270.010.02
Kansas St.B120.050.1073.9168.410.020.04
LehighPat0.000.1073.9174.940.000.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1047.6246.51-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.1081.8276.800.040.05
Western KentuckySB0.160.1034.7834.46-0.05-0.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0945.0044.18-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.000.0968.1867.720.000.03
PacificBW0.110.0935.0037.55-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.160.0956.5255.970.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.160.0940.9139.60-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.0947.6248.81-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.100.0931.8232.81-0.04-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.160.0947.8347.88-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.160.0971.4373.450.070.04
ToledoMAC0.100.0938.1040.84-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0955.5658.020.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.100.0950.0053.830.000.01
DrexelCAA0.150.0979.1778.050.090.05
UC RiversideBW0.100.0942.8639.66-0.01-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0921.0522.46-0.06-0.05
RutgersBE0.160.0950.0046.870.00-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0954.5556.780.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.0968.0070.060.060.04
New MexicoMWC0.100.0981.8281.020.060.05
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0985.7178.110.070.05
CaliforniaP120.100.0975.0074.620.050.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0973.9168.650.020.03
TempleA100.050.0977.2775.070.030.04
ConnecticutBE0.060.0765.2262.350.020.02
Notre DameBE0.000.0765.2262.670.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0637.5038.36-0.03-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.110.0669.5771.580.040.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0655.0060.350.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0668.4268.620.000.02
Georgia St.CAA0.060.0666.6769.710.020.03
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0631.8232.98-0.04-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0642.8643.52-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.0683.3384.760.070.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0613.6416.23-0.08-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0642.8645.93-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0640.9143.65-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.068.7013.12-0.00-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.000.0661.9058.610.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0634.7834.75-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.110.0669.5764.490.040.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.0680.9577.450.070.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0652.1758.490.000.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0648.0048.07-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.100.0640.0039.70-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0630.4329.57-0.02-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.420.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0628.5734.11-0.05-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.068.3310.90-0.09-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.100.0686.9683.300.080.04
AlbanyAE0.100.0657.6958.540.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.060.004.04-0.05-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.0665.0066.710.030.02
HartfordAE0.100.0620.8322.81-0.06-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.070.030.01
Long IslandNEC0.100.0670.8371.060.040.03
MaineAE0.100.0647.6248.01-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0633.3337.75-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0668.1868.980.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.060.005.31-0.05-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.050.0661.5463.840.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.0656.5255.220.010.01
CreightonMVC0.100.0684.0082.620.070.04
HarvardIvy0.100.0690.4887.910.080.05
KansasB120.100.0678.2678.420.060.03
Oregon St.P120.100.0663.6463.170.030.02
ButlerHorz0.110.0650.0050.810.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0617.3919.76-0.03-0.04
WisconsinB100.110.0675.0074.010.050.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.0654.5556.800.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0642.8641.08-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0668.4266.510.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.100.0640.0040.17-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0671.4369.050.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0644.0045.88-0.01-0.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.100.0654.5557.710.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0666.6760.840.020.01
DuquesneA100.100.0659.0956.380.020.01
La SalleA100.100.0670.8368.830.040.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0620.8320.61-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0660.0059.090.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0666.6768.550.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.40-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.330.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0669.5766.590.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.060.0344.4441.65-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0343.4843.89-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0335.0040.74-0.02-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.060.0385.7182.220.040.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0344.4448.16-0.01-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0340.9139.81-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0316.6726.81-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0354.1747.950.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0390.9183.900.050.02
BelmontASun0.050.0370.8373.740.020.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.550.020.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.039.0912.82-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0355.0054.810.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.12-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0347.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.570.020.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9142.03-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.58-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.410.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.760.000.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0371.4373.990.020.02
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.38-0.02-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0339.1336.12-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0369.5769.000.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCAA0.050.0360.0058.300.010.01
PittsburghBE0.060.0362.5059.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0347.3752.90-0.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0352.0048.780.00-0.00
Seattleind0.050.0322.2232.99-0.03-0.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.540.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0347.6248.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MB120.000.0350.0045.200.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0365.2263.550.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0334.7837.27-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.180.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0345.4545.69-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0327.2735.05-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0347.8342.19-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.WAC0.050.0339.1344.46-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0320.8323.61-0.03-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.61-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0336.0040.36-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.40-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0330.0033.22-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.24-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0317.3920.75-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.77-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0369.5765.370.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0333.3332.18-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
LouisvilleBE0.050.0379.1774.200.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.780.010.01
NevadaWAC0.050.0380.9576.420.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.29-0.05-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0362.5061.430.010.01
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.28-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0380.7780.770.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0334.7832.10-0.02-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.27-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.880.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.97-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.500.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.47-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.690.020.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.140.030.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0370.8362.750.020.01
NebraskaB100.050.0350.0044.980.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.63-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.650.020.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
UtahP120.050.0318.1815.00-0.03-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00