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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Morgan St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:321.4
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:4-15
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:308
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15251.50.02%
12-16265.70.57%
11-17283.13.92%
10-18299.412.46%
9-19314.123.43%
8-20326.227.57%
7-21334.420.94%
6-22340.88.60%
5-23345.22.27%
4-24347.80.21%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Virginia (8.1)ACCA86-48L0%0.0
11-16Towson (167.0)CAAA69-61L0%0.0
11-18Old Dominion (145.4)CUSAA79-48L0%0.0
11-21Campbell (326.3)BSthA54-59W100%0.0
11-28High Point (176.6)BSthA82-72L0%0.0
12-2Wagner (197.3)NECA62-61L0%0.0
12-6Cincinnati (42.5)AmerA87-66L0%0.0
12-20Manhattan (221.2)MAACH66-78L0%0.0
12-23Rider (218.6)MAACH49-71L0%0.0
12-28UC Riverside (249.1)BWH72-81L0%0.0
12-31Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACA80-68L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (274.5)BWA88-74L0%0.0
1-6Hampton (195.3)MEACH80-83L0%0.0
1-9Delaware St. (346.8)MEACH63-58W100%0.0
1-11Maryland Eastern Shore (278.8)MEACA69-65L0%0.0
1-16Florida A&M (348.4)MEACA72-65L0%0.0
1-18Bethune Cookman (307.9)MEACA62-50L0%0.0
1-30Howard (280.3)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
2-1Coppin St. (321.9)MEACH83-43W100%0.0
2-6Savannah St. (337.2)MEACA0-055%1.4
2-8South Carolina St. (217.8)MEACA0-027%-6.5
2-13Norfolk St. (221.1)MEACA0-020%-9.3
2-15Hampton (195.3)MEACA0-025%-7.4
2-20North Carolina Central (310.3)MEACH0-058%2.2
2-22North Carolina A&T (340.4)MEACH0-074%7.1
2-24Norfolk St. (221.1)MEACH0-040%-2.6
2-27Coppin St. (321.9)MEACA0-053%0.8
3-3Maryland Eastern Shore (278.8)MEACH0-064%3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morgan St.MEAC26.2026.1520.7830.32-15.31-10.29
Norfolk St.MEAC0.384.2538.1045.85-0.09-0.35
HamptonMEAC2.834.1557.8959.260.450.77
Coppin St.MEAC3.014.1416.6722.43-2.01-2.28
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.894.1123.8130.22-1.51-1.63
Delaware St.MEAC2.812.5610.5315.41-2.22-1.77
HowardMEAC2.892.4942.1144.10-0.46-0.29
Savannah St.MEAC0.392.4331.5833.05-0.14-0.83
South Carolina St.MEAC0.392.4347.6252.24-0.020.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.332.4126.0930.50-0.16-0.94
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.962.4025.0032.40-1.48-0.85
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.332.3326.3236.73-0.15-0.62
Florida A&MMEAC2.832.3016.6720.52-1.89-1.36
Old DominionCUSA2.761.9452.3860.680.130.41
UC RiversideBW2.891.9145.4541.98-0.26-0.31
RiderMAAC2.761.8839.1341.63-0.60-0.32
CampbellBSth2.701.8531.5831.59-1.00-0.68
TowsonCAA2.701.8561.9055.810.640.22
CincinnatiAmer2.631.8572.7372.191.200.82
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.751.8526.3225.97-1.30-0.89
ManhattanMAAC2.691.8442.1141.08-0.42-0.33
High PointBSth2.701.8255.5659.940.300.36
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.691.8263.1666.210.710.59
WagnerNEC2.691.8160.0062.000.540.44
VirginiaACC2.631.7980.9575.191.630.90
William & MaryCAA0.380.2570.0069.360.150.10
FairfieldMAAC0.300.2152.1752.980.010.01
WinthropBSth0.200.2065.0063.370.060.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.260.2081.8281.010.170.12
UC IrvineBW0.120.1872.7371.670.060.08
NiagaraMAAC0.250.1825.0025.48-0.12-0.09
LongwoodBSth0.200.1719.0522.35-0.12-0.09
RadfordBSth0.200.1752.3853.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1750.0046.870.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1725.0029.29-0.09-0.07
Kansas St.B120.130.1659.0955.550.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.165.2610.18-0.12-0.13
San FranciscoWCC0.260.1652.3848.890.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.190.1631.8232.71-0.07-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.120.1670.5974.500.050.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1638.1037.53-0.03-0.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1683.3380.130.080.09
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1579.1780.770.070.09
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1542.8651.33-0.030.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.1457.8957.330.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.1442.8647.27-0.03-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1426.3227.34-0.06-0.06
AkronMAC0.130.1381.8279.750.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1361.9059.930.040.03
HoustonAmer0.130.1372.7368.010.060.05
UTEPCUSA0.070.1350.0050.040.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1365.0064.310.060.04
St. Francis PANEC0.120.1347.6249.35-0.01-0.00
George MasonA100.250.1236.3635.33-0.07-0.04
UMBCAE0.190.1220.8325.01-0.11-0.06
SMUAmer0.120.1290.4885.550.100.09
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.5836.16-0.05-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1236.8432.84-0.05-0.04
UC DavisBW0.120.1236.8434.20-0.03-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.1240.0049.74-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1236.3642.19-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.190.1241.6743.85-0.03-0.01
IonaMAAC0.180.1259.0959.680.030.02
SienaMAAC0.190.1266.6767.290.060.04
MaristMAAC0.120.1219.0521.40-0.07-0.07
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1245.4541.98-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.140.1031.8232.92-0.05-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1063.6465.480.040.03
FordhamA100.140.1057.8954.300.020.01
CaliforniaP120.130.1063.6461.810.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1047.6247.86-0.01-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.1050.0050.860.000.00
Iowa St.B120.130.1072.7368.840.060.04
DrexelCAA0.190.1014.2918.63-0.13-0.06
MissouriSEC0.060.1036.3630.98-0.02-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1075.0071.280.060.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1034.7841.59-0.06-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.0952.3853.820.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.0931.8235.16-0.07-0.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0963.6462.340.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.0925.0029.52-0.06-0.04
DelawareCAA0.190.0922.7323.64-0.10-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.060.0947.8350.56-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.110.0920.8320.11-0.07-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0930.0032.46-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.060.0960.0057.960.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0980.0070.290.040.04
PurdueB100.130.0982.6178.230.080.05
MarylandB100.110.0986.9681.770.080.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0981.8277.440.080.05
MemphisAmer0.120.0959.0958.550.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.0938.1041.92-0.03-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0952.1747.250.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.180.0961.9058.420.040.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0925.0028.19-0.03-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.074.557.91-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.070.0760.8759.050.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0738.8943.22-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.130.0757.1457.940.020.01
IowaB100.070.0781.8279.900.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0763.6468.210.020.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0745.0042.81-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.130.0730.0034.84-0.05-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0715.0015.65-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0735.0035.36-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.130.0733.3339.27-0.04-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0785.0085.230.090.05
South DakotaSum0.130.0739.1339.48-0.03-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0727.2730.43-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.070.0772.7366.970.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0740.0044.95-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0710.0015.28-0.05-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.0733.3333.55-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.130.0760.0057.290.030.01
The CitadelSC0.130.0735.0031.39-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.070.0772.7368.550.030.02
FIUCUSA0.130.0642.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0610.5325.37-0.10-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0630.0033.57-0.03-0.02
BryantNEC0.060.0626.0927.58-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.6413.80-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0641.6746.85-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0072.220.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.130.0625.0029.91-0.06-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.0640.9140.96-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1452.310.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0636.3634.95-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0654.5553.020.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0673.9176.040.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0656.5253.460.010.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0668.1865.420.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0654.5555.310.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0669.5768.670.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0682.6181.380.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0647.8348.69-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0685.7176.030.000.03
StetsonASun0.060.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.060.0638.1043.35-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.120.068.709.77-0.10-0.05
LamarSlnd0.120.0633.3332.69-0.04-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0657.1457.560.010.01
West VirginiaB120.120.0681.8278.720.080.03
La SalleA100.110.0621.0520.91-0.07-0.03
NebraskaB100.120.0652.1751.560.010.00
RichmondA100.120.0652.3853.680.010.00
UCFAmer0.060.0655.0047.170.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0681.8277.490.040.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0680.9575.640.040.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.1457.510.010.01
George WashingtonA100.120.0677.2771.670.060.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.0655.5650.840.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0672.7372.440.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0630.0029.46-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.0654.5555.990.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0663.6459.950.020.01
VCUA100.120.0677.2776.780.060.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0433.3334.18-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0422.7324.28-0.04-0.02
North FloridaASun0.070.0468.1869.350.030.01
SamfordSC0.070.0440.9143.37-0.01-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0475.0073.480.030.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0352.1750.240.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0345.0041.83-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0376.1967.350.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0333.3332.01-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0357.1457.930.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0338.1042.99-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0360.0056.080.010.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0336.8437.30-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0350.0056.540.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.8641.75-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0317.3921.76-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0381.8278.210.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0318.1822.83-0.04-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0363.1666.150.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0361.9054.010.020.00
VMISC0.070.0316.6718.97-0.04-0.02
WyomingMWC0.070.0340.9140.46-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.9058.190.000.01
BucknellPat0.070.0352.3856.770.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0350.0050.510.000.00
CornellIvy0.070.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0366.6758.760.000.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0336.8441.45-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0342.1142.70-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0336.3635.58-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0342.8639.84-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0328.5728.88-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0366.6760.120.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0359.0958.100.010.01
RutgersB100.070.0322.7320.68-0.04-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0372.7368.630.030.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0370.0069.070.000.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0327.2724.41-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0347.6257.27-0.000.00
UCLAP120.070.0356.5253.350.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0333.3332.88-0.02-0.01
USCP120.070.0378.2673.130.040.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0354.5555.190.010.00
BrownIvy0.060.0333.3331.83-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0331.8234.36-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0372.7367.980.030.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0363.6456.050.020.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0335.2934.69-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0347.3750.51-0.000.00
TCUB120.070.0345.4537.84-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0345.4547.97-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0352.1748.790.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0372.7369.920.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0368.1867.800.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0368.1863.250.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.5552.750.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0316.6720.71-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0366.6761.680.000.01
LehighPat0.060.0330.0036.08-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0386.3680.660.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0361.9060.410.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0368.1863.720.020.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0366.6767.310.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0352.3857.440.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0323.8125.03-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0386.3685.330.040.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4542.14-0.01-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
ButlerBE0.060.0368.1866.490.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.37-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0361.1158.300.010.00
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0370.0068.920.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0333.3333.64-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0381.8278.320.040.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0314.2913.97-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.060.0390.9184.430.050.02