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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:329.4
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:302
Current SOS:196
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:6-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-13
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:329
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13204.00.01%
14-14205.00.01%
13-15228.70.09%
12-16249.20.46%
11-17271.21.56%
10-18288.14.36%
9-19305.89.06%
8-20319.314.24%
7-21330.118.60%
6-22337.519.46%
5-23343.016.63%
4-24346.39.70%
3-25348.54.08%
2-26349.71.47%
1-27350.20.25%
0-28351.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC Upstate (258.4)ASunH46-63L0%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (274.7)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
11-23Bradley (283.9)MVCA0-019%-10.3
11-25Saint Louis (79.5)A10A0-02%-24.0
11-28Radford (225.4)BSthN0-023%-9.1
12-4USC Upstate (258.4)ASunA0-016%-11.9
12-6Howard (311.0)MEACA0-026%-7.7
12-8Maryland Eastern Shore (323.5)MEACA0-035%-4.5
12-14Old Dominion (71.0)CUSAA0-02%-24.5
12-17Ohio St. (32.4)B10A0-00%-31.8
12-19Kent St. (90.3)MACA0-04%-21.5
12-30South Carolina (81.1)SECA0-01%-26.2
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (298.9)WACH0-043%-2.2
1-10Savannah St. (275.2)MEACH0-046%-1.3
1-12South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACH0-049%-0.3
1-17Hampton (201.2)MEACA0-010%-15.2
1-19Norfolk St. (225.2)MEACA0-013%-13.5
1-24Delaware St. (249.0)MEACH0-037%-3.9
1-26Coppin St. (265.1)MEACH0-045%-1.4
1-31Savannah St. (275.2)MEACA0-024%-8.5
2-4Charlotte (63.4)CUSAA0-02%-24.2
2-7North Carolina Central (171.3)MEACH0-017%-11.5
2-14Florida A&M (348.5)MEACA0-052%0.6
2-16Bethune Cookman (296.7)MEACA0-021%-9.6
2-23Morgan St. (274.9)MEACH0-039%-3.5
2-28Florida A&M (348.5)MEACH0-074%7.8
3-2Bethune Cookman (296.7)MEACH0-042%-2.4
3-5North Carolina Central (171.3)MEACA0-06%-18.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC35.4226.210.0024.51-35.42-13.36
Florida A&MMEAC6.254.280.0015.21-6.25-2.98
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.004.200.0067.61-0.001.48
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.180.0044.79-0.00-0.44
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.1833.3333.80-0.00-1.36
USC UpstateASun25.003.73100.0046.8825.00-0.23
HamptonMEAC0.002.4533.3358.22-0.000.40
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.450.0031.21-0.00-0.92
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.4225.0027.89-0.00-1.07
HowardMEAC0.002.420.0032.68-0.00-0.84
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.3933.3342.83-0.00-0.34
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.390.0036.59-0.00-0.64
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.390.0046.79-0.00-0.15
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.390.0030.83-0.00-0.92
Northern KentuckyASun25.001.920.0035.90-25.00-0.54
CharlotteCUSA0.001.88100.0069.080.000.72
Old DominionCUSA0.001.88100.0076.390.000.99
RadfordBSth0.001.8233.3343.61-0.00-0.23
South CarolinaSEC0.001.8250.0053.610.000.13
BradleyMVC0.001.790.0023.30-0.00-0.95
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.790.0032.72-0.00-0.62
Kent St.MAC0.001.79100.0066.840.000.60
Ohio St.B100.001.79100.0072.720.000.81
Saint LouisA100.001.79100.0064.940.000.53
StetsonASun0.000.380.0032.16-0.00-0.14
North FloridaASun0.000.350.0049.10-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.320.0024.25-0.00-0.17
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.230.0027.11-0.00-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.000.2266.6751.090.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0071.730.000.09
LipscombASun0.000.200.0041.45-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1950.0056.600.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.19100.0043.610.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1950.0049.560.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.17100.0063.680.000.05
North TexasCUSA0.000.15100.0046.320.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1350.0059.030.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0036.560.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1350.0049.490.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.13100.0045.610.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1350.0062.660.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.13100.0063.380.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.1366.6756.820.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.13100.0058.330.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.13100.0073.200.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1333.3365.68-0.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1333.3351.38-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0029.380.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1250.0035.880.00-0.04
FordhamA100.000.120.0034.73-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.1233.3328.81-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1266.6745.850.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1250.0031.730.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1250.0043.330.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.12100.0074.770.000.06
DuquesneA100.000.120.0051.78-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.120.0038.12-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.12100.0063.850.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1275.0045.210.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1033.3330.78-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0066.050.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.100.0065.36-0.000.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.100.0062.16-0.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.1040.0041.64-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.10100.0052.690.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.10100.0063.410.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6757.590.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1066.6755.230.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0950.0052.540.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0933.3363.82-0.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0074.210.000.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0950.0051.340.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0038.29-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0068.990.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.09100.0048.390.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.09100.0084.100.000.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6747.240.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.09100.0041.370.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.090.0032.86-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0966.6763.580.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0933.3344.93-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0925.0022.09-0.00-0.05
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0030.14-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.630.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.09100.0079.370.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.09100.0053.060.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0950.0033.640.00-0.03
IowaB100.000.0950.0067.840.000.03
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.07100.0064.850.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.810.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.070.0048.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0733.3335.37-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0015.85-0.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0038.57-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.07100.0058.280.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6766.420.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0041.040.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0750.0021.230.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.240.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0650.0054.170.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0666.6763.800.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0054.580.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0057.620.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.24-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0027.72-0.00-0.03
TulaneAmer0.000.0650.0033.930.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0650.0044.430.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0650.0045.610.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0033.61-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0050.900.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.690.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3349.18-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0062.910.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0027.23-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
NebraskaB104.170.06100.0051.034.170.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.710.00-0.01
WisconsinB104.170.06100.0081.114.170.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0625.0057.21-0.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.060.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.40-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.060.0028.13-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0058.420.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.33-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6769.310.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.770.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.54-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0666.6748.270.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0056.150.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6777.370.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0050.390.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.570.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0333.3358.87-0.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6764.270.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.23-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3357.87-0.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0075.400.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.440.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0032.99-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0058.17-0.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.50-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0069.430.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0051.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0051.300.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.84-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0040.180.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6754.260.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3344.98-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.030.0057.16-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3347.78-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.030.0025.28-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.360.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0070.600.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0035.17-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0366.6760.730.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0350.0057.440.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0055.45-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.22-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0051.62-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0067.360.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.030.0036.43-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.300.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0063.730.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0036.850.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0333.3331.34-0.00-0.01