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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:334.7
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:347
Current SOS:336
Current Record:7-17
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:4-6
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17303.50.94%
12-18317.08.05%
11-19328.022.83%
10-20336.134.30%
9-21341.724.02%
8-22345.68.86%
7-23348.20.99%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Purdue (17.0)B10A81-40L0%0.0
11-16Florida (23.8)SECA104-54L0%0.0
11-21Buffalo (86.0)MACN68-86L0%0.0
11-22Niagara (308.0)MAACN72-73L0%0.0
11-24Virginia Tech (127.6)ACCA90-60L0%0.0
11-28North Dakota St. (114.7)SumA77-56L0%0.0
11-30Northern Kentucky (246.1)HorzH74-63W100%0.0
12-2UNC Greensboro (265.4)SCH77-68W100%0.0
12-5Howard (290.3)MEACH66-63W100%0.0
12-7Maryland Eastern Shore (267.6)MEACH80-74W100%0.0
12-13East Carolina (185.6)AmerA71-60L0%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (344.6)SWACH61-47W100%0.0
12-21Toledo (147.0)MACA95-62L0%0.0
12-30Kent St. (113.5)MACH60-61L0%0.0
1-5USC Upstate (325.9)ASunA78-68L0%0.0
1-9Savannah St. (333.7)MEACA75-68L0%0.0
1-11South Carolina St. (210.4)MEACA92-85L0%0.0
1-16Hampton (201.5)MEACH62-79L0%0.0
1-18Norfolk St. (212.3)MEACH68-75L0%0.0
1-25Delaware St. (348.0)MEACA57-55L0%0.0
1-27Coppin St. (321.3)MEACA73-68L0%0.0
1-30Savannah St. (333.7)MEACH63-62W100%0.0
2-3Charlotte (237.2)CUSAH72-92L0%0.0
2-6North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACA63-67W100%0.0
2-13Florida A&M (348.6)MEACH0-080%9.0
2-15Bethune Cookman (302.6)MEACH0-051%0.4
2-22Morgan St. (329.8)MEACA0-028%-6.3
2-27Florida A&M (348.6)MEACA0-059%2.3
2-29Bethune Cookman (302.6)MEACA0-028%-6.2
3-3North Carolina Central (322.0)MEACH0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.2626.1426.0431.14-12.58-9.86
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.493.9531.8234.36-0.18-1.24
Savannah St.MEAC4.413.9233.3334.81-1.47-1.19
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.483.9226.3233.83-1.17-1.27
Florida A&MMEAC0.353.8821.0522.93-0.20-2.10
South Carolina St.MEAC2.472.3347.6251.57-0.120.07
Norfolk St.MEAC2.492.2838.1047.46-0.59-0.12
Delaware St.MEAC2.382.255.0010.43-2.15-1.78
Morgan St.MEAC0.352.2520.0025.08-0.21-1.12
HamptonMEAC2.432.2455.0057.910.240.36
HowardMEAC2.372.2140.0042.24-0.47-0.34
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.442.1831.8236.36-0.89-0.59
Coppin St.MEAC2.322.1810.5319.25-1.83-1.34
ToledoMAC2.231.8457.1458.690.320.32
East CarolinaAmer2.281.7940.9140.08-0.41-0.35
BuffaloMAC2.181.7857.1457.460.310.27
Kent St.MAC2.181.7561.9058.040.520.28
PurdueB102.181.7278.2675.771.230.89
Northern KentuckyHorz2.181.7235.0036.44-0.65-0.47
Grambling St.SWAC2.171.7216.6720.80-1.45-1.00
Virginia TechACC2.141.7052.1747.580.09-0.08
CharlotteCUSA2.131.6931.8238.95-0.77-0.37
FloridaSEC2.131.6963.6464.960.580.51
USC UpstateASun2.131.6919.0520.30-1.32-1.01
NiagaraMAAC2.081.6720.8322.05-1.22-0.93
North Dakota St.Sum2.081.6761.9060.740.500.36
UNC GreensboroSC2.081.6730.0033.08-0.83-0.56
JacksonvilleASun0.190.2750.0049.860.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.190.2681.8280.030.120.16
Old DominionCUSA0.370.2556.5262.780.050.06
StetsonASun0.090.2023.8127.69-0.05-0.09
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.2036.8441.44-0.05-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.190.2031.8230.48-0.07-0.08
The CitadelSC0.140.1733.3331.31-0.05-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.1730.4332.35-0.09-0.06
OhioMAC0.190.1761.9059.430.050.03
HoustonAmer0.100.1669.5766.510.040.05
West VirginiaB120.140.1482.6179.550.090.08
UCFAmer0.140.1452.3845.700.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.190.1463.6459.240.050.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1450.0051.170.000.00
MichiganB100.190.1469.5766.220.070.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1452.3847.040.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1433.3335.48-0.05-0.04
PittsburghACC0.180.1476.1968.220.090.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.220.1482.6178.890.150.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.1336.8438.39-0.01-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1321.7423.40-0.05-0.07
North FloridaASun0.050.1365.2267.140.010.04
SamfordSC0.050.1339.1341.32-0.01-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.1352.0050.250.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1347.6252.67-0.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1316.6720.13-0.07-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.160.1365.0066.790.050.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1259.0959.440.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.1252.1751.940.000.00
ClemsonACC0.140.1260.8760.240.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1271.4368.710.070.05
CampbellBSth0.150.1228.5729.65-0.06-0.05
MissouriSEC0.150.1234.7830.36-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.190.1262.5062.450.050.03
MarshallCUSA0.100.1250.0051.170.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.140.1238.1037.44-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.1220.0019.66-0.06-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1221.7422.74-0.08-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1282.6181.140.060.07
Iowa St.B120.190.1273.9170.060.090.05
SMUAmer0.140.1190.9186.130.120.08
CincinnatiAmer0.050.1170.8370.840.020.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1163.1658.790.040.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1144.0045.31-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.180.1154.1757.520.010.02
Miami FLACC0.090.1181.8276.740.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0940.9143.53-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.0940.0039.00-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0972.0070.510.020.04
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0942.8639.19-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0940.9145.30-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.150.0969.5767.480.060.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.4554.11-0.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0947.8348.91-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0940.9140.65-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.140.0960.8758.470.030.02
DetroitHorz0.100.0947.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.150.0954.5556.000.010.01
NJITASun0.090.0954.1755.250.010.01
OaklandHorz0.150.0968.0067.970.050.03
IPFWSum0.140.0970.8368.570.060.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0930.0035.77-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0920.8323.63-0.06-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0947.6252.07-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.090.0940.9145.38-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.150.0958.3354.160.020.01
FurmanSC0.090.0952.1753.310.000.01
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0039.79-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.090.0915.7917.42-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.140.0982.6180.580.090.05
UABCUSA0.140.0882.6179.420.090.05
MemphisAmer0.100.0860.8760.770.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.140.0871.4368.970.060.03
BrownIvy0.040.0831.5831.05-0.02-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0854.5554.490.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0842.8641.97-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.040.0840.0042.11-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0882.6178.050.030.05
Wake ForestACC0.090.0843.4840.61-0.01-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0854.1754.130.010.01
MarylandB100.090.0887.5083.690.070.06
Michigan St.B100.090.0883.3383.020.060.05
NebraskaB100.090.0854.1751.810.010.00
TempleAmer0.140.0863.6459.840.040.02
MaristMAAC0.090.0822.7324.73-0.05-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0856.5260.000.010.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0731.5831.80-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0715.0027.26-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.100.0672.7366.500.050.02
OregonP120.100.0682.6179.210.070.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.23-0.04-0.05
LipscombASun0.090.0625.0029.27-0.05-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0659.0959.640.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.09-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.040.030.04
WinthropBSth0.100.0665.0063.440.030.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0654.5550.110.010.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.0671.4369.840.040.02
AmericanPat0.090.0630.4331.89-0.04-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.13-0.08-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.0672.2274.710.040.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0686.3685.030.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.800.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.480.000.01
MercerSC0.050.0672.7370.750.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0656.5256.310.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0639.1341.12-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0641.6741.24-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.860.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0628.5731.36-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.100.0665.2262.880.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0642.8646.34-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.210.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.090.0624.0026.41-0.05-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0626.0929.20-0.05-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0678.2678.050.050.03
Montana St.BSky0.090.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0645.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0647.8350.15-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0663.6460.940.030.01
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
IllinoisB100.090.0645.8344.11-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0682.6178.690.060.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.090.0650.0051.270.000.00
RutgersB100.090.0621.7420.35-0.05-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0631.5831.98-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.100.0621.7423.32-0.05-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0659.0953.030.010.00
GeorgetownBE0.090.0654.1752.340.010.00
LamarSlnd0.090.0631.5831.96-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.150.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0643.4842.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.090.0573.9170.040.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0571.4369.420.040.02
Penn St.B100.090.0550.0046.740.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0522.7327.19-0.05-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0569.5764.890.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0561.9056.690.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0560.8760.730.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0573.9171.550.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0565.2260.270.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0565.2259.020.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0579.1780.760.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3332.99-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.040.0566.6763.420.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0528.5729.72-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0538.1041.93-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0564.0064.120.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0566.6762.560.030.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0533.3332.34-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0565.2261.450.030.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0545.4546.30-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.040.0560.8755.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.780.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.290.010.00
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.410.000.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.260.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.02-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.620.020.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0366.6767.690.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5728.54-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.16-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.430.010.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.670.030.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.13-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0314.2915.46-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.77-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0363.6465.030.000.01
DePaulBE0.050.0334.7834.45-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.240.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0361.9059.660.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.66-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0343.4837.22-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.620.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0321.7424.67-0.03-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.76-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.900.020.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0375.0075.850.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0330.4326.50-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.040.0369.5767.230.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0352.1751.590.000.00
HartfordAE0.040.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0356.2556.100.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0379.1774.020.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0325.0024.36-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.500.020.01
LehighPat0.040.0333.3337.25-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0382.6177.740.030.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0326.0927.82-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0360.8763.000.010.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0369.5765.850.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
St. John'sBE0.040.0326.0923.72-0.02-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.400.020.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0313.6413.62-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0365.2261.070.010.01