North Carolina A&T

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	289.0
Current RPI:	289
Expected SOS:	285
Current SOS:	285
Current Record:	9-20
Expected Record:	9-20
Current Conf Record:	7-10
Expected Conf Record:	7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-10
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	261
Expected OOC SOS:	71

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-20	289.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	97-65	L	0%
11-14	Iowa (130.0)	B10	A	95-79	L	0%
11-17	Campbell (206.0)	BSth	A	94-66	L	0%
11-19	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	87-70	W	100%
11-28	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	H	87-65	W	100%
12-3	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	A	65-46	L	0%
12-10	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	86-65	L	0%
12-13	Central Florida (54.0)	CUSA	A	77-65	L	0%
12-15	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	A	84-45	L	0%
12-18	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	N	65-57	L	0%
12-21	Akron (55.0)	MAC	A	79-52	L	0%
12-23	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	A	82-66	L	0%
12-28	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	71-67	L	0%
1-7	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	56-59	L	0%
1-9	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	85-82	W	100%
1-14	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	A	65-70	W	100%
1-21	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	A	61-62	W	100%
1-23	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	A	92-93	W	100%
1-28	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	H	91-66	W	100%
1-30	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	H	41-56	L	0%
2-4	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	A	92-79	L	0%
2-6	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	A	87-77	L	0%
2-11	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	85-55	W	100%
2-13	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	H	59-66	L	0%
2-18	North Carolina Central (233.0)	MEAC	H	66-71	L	0%
2-25	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	75-79	W	100%
2-27	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	A	62-50	L	0%
3-1	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	H	65-72	L	0%
3-6	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	N	50-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	26.18	26.18	33.86	33.86	-8.45	-8.45
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	4.30	4.30	45.16	45.16	-0.42	-0.42
Florida A&M	MEAC	4.20	4.20	24.14	24.14	-2.17	-2.17
South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.16	4.16	11.11	11.11	-3.24	-3.24
North Carolina Central	MEAC	4.16	4.16	42.31	42.31	-0.64	-0.64
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.08	4.08	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
Howard	MEAC	4.01	4.01	28.57	28.57	-1.72	-1.72
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.42	2.42	74.19	74.19	1.17	1.17
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.37	2.37	21.43	21.43	-1.35	-1.35
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.33	2.33	40.00	40.00	-0.47	-0.47
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.33	2.33	46.15	46.15	-0.18	-0.18
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.29	2.29	32.14	32.14	-0.82	-0.82
Creighton	MVC	1.90	1.90	84.38	84.38	1.30	1.30
Akron	MAC	1.86	1.86	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Ohio	MAC	1.83	1.83	78.12	78.12	1.03	1.03
Iowa	B10	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	1.81	1.81	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	1.81	1.81	65.52	65.52	0.56	0.56
Chicago St.	GWC	1.80	1.80	11.11	11.11	-1.40	-1.40
Evansville	MVC	1.80	1.80	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	WAC	1.78	1.78	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
St. Mary's	WCC	1.78	1.78	82.76	82.76	1.16	1.16
Houston	CUSA	1.75	1.75	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
NC Greensboro	SC	1.72	1.72	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Hampton	MEAC	0.81	0.81	36.36	36.36	-0.22	-0.22
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.26	0.26	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Indiana	B10	0.26	0.26	75.76	75.76	0.13	0.13
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.25	0.25	25.93	25.93	-0.12	-0.12
Illinois St.	MVC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.20	0.20	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.19	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.15	0.15	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	83.87	83.87	0.10	0.10
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	64.29	64.29	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	21.88	21.88	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.09	0.09	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	3.12	3.12	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	78.57	78.57	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01