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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:340.0
Current RPI:340
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:343
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-14
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:231



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23340.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC Upstate (208.0)ASunH46-63L0%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA68-55L0%0.0
11-23Bradley (288.0)MVCA58-50L0%0.0
11-25Saint Louis (272.0)A10A57-54L0%0.0
11-28Radford (154.0)BSthN57-65L0%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACN66-63L0%0.0
12-4USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA65-54L0%0.0
12-6Howard (255.0)MEACA54-47L0%0.0
12-8Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA69-58L0%0.0
12-14Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA85-48L0%0.0
12-17Ohio St. (41.0)B10A97-55L0%0.0
12-19Kent St. (94.0)MACA71-57L0%0.0
12-30South Carolina (91.0)SECA91-54L0%0.0
1-3Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH83-70W100%0.0
1-10Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH68-47W100%0.0
1-12South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH50-52L0%0.0
1-17Hampton (251.0)MEACA61-64W100%0.0
1-19Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA74-60L0%0.0
1-24Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH52-67L0%0.0
1-26Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH71-84L0%0.0
1-31Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA59-62W100%0.0
2-4Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA77-61L0%0.0
2-7North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH44-58L0%0.0
2-14Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA57-50L0%0.0
2-16Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA78-56L0%0.0
2-23Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH60-57W100%0.0
2-28Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
3-2Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH67-50W100%0.0
3-5North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACA69-58L0%0.0
3-10South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACN63-54L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.1626.1623.3923.39-13.92-13.92
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.993.9974.0774.071.921.92
Florida A&MMEAC3.973.973.703.70-3.68-3.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.943.9428.5728.57-1.69-1.69
South Carolina St.MEAC3.943.9424.1424.14-2.04-2.04
Savannah St.MEAC3.943.9425.9325.93-1.90-1.90
USC UpstateASun3.483.4860.7160.710.740.74
Delaware St.MEAC2.412.4146.8846.88-0.15-0.15
HamptonMEAC2.382.3850.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC2.332.3320.6920.69-1.36-1.36
Norfolk St.MEAC2.302.3056.6756.670.310.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.302.3054.8454.840.220.22
HowardMEAC2.272.2742.8642.86-0.32-0.32
Morgan St.MEAC2.242.2423.3323.33-1.19-1.19
Northern KentuckyASun1.781.7837.0437.04-0.46-0.46
CharlotteCUSA1.751.7541.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Old DominionCUSA1.741.7476.6776.670.930.93
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.721.7216.1316.13-1.17-1.17
RadfordBSth1.701.7060.7160.710.360.36
BradleyMVC1.691.6922.5822.58-0.93-0.93
Saint LouisA101.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
South CarolinaSEC1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.671.6737.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Kent St.MAC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
Ohio St.B101.671.6768.7568.750.620.62
North FloridaASun0.370.3764.5264.520.110.11
StetsonASun0.340.3421.4321.43-0.19-0.19
JacksonvilleASun0.280.2824.1424.14-0.15-0.15
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.2365.5265.520.070.07
WinthropBSth0.200.2055.1755.170.020.02
LipscombASun0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
FIUCUSA0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
MemphisAmer0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
MarylandB100.140.1481.8281.820.090.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
DuquesneA100.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.140.1430.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
IndianaB100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
RichmondA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
LSUSEC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.110.1174.2974.290.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Penn St.B100.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0827.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00