North Carolina A&T

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	213.0
Current RPI:	213
Expected SOS:	323
Current SOS:	323
Current Record:	18-16
Expected Record:	18-16
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-7
Current OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC Record:	6-8
Expected OOC RPI:	197
Expected OOC SOS:	249

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-16	213.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	55-64	L	0%
11-16	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	56-44	L	0%
11-18	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	93-39	L	0%
11-20	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	86-57	L	0%
11-23	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	N	85-60	W	100%
11-24	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	N	54-50	L	0%
11-28	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	79-90	W	100%
12-1	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	62-66	L	0%
12-13	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	71-76	W	100%
12-16	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	77-66	L	0%
12-19	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	78-67	W	100%
12-28	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	85-74	L	0%
12-30	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	60-52	L	0%
1-2	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	81-77	W	100%
1-5	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	65-71	W	100%
1-12	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	72-60	L	0%
1-14	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	A	40-68	W	100%
1-19	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	61-37	W	100%
1-26	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	52-55	L	0%
1-28	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	63-62	W	100%
2-2	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	A	44-46	W	100%
2-4	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	A	53-44	L	0%
2-9	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	65-55	W	100%
2-11	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	64-56	W	100%
2-16	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	72-70	L	0%
2-18	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	56-49	L	0%
2-23	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	A	51-47	L	0%
3-2	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	H	58-35	W	100%
3-4	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	59-57	W	100%
3-7	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	A	55-48	L	0%
3-12	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	N	65-54	W	100%
3-13	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	N	42-55	W	100%
3-15	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	N	78-84	W	100%
3-16	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	N	54-57	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	26.39	26.39	57.53	57.53	3.98	3.98
North Carolina Central	MEAC	5.10	5.10	68.00	68.00	1.84	1.84
Florida A&M	MEAC	5.05	5.05	23.08	23.08	-2.72	-2.72
South Carolina St.	MEAC	3.71	3.71	11.54	11.54	-2.85	-2.85
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	3.69	3.69	36.67	36.67	-0.98	-0.98
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.69	3.69	55.17	55.17	0.38	0.38
Morgan St.	MEAC	3.61	3.61	53.33	53.33	0.24	0.24
Delaware St.	MEAC	3.51	3.51	41.38	41.38	-0.60	-0.60
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.12	2.12	7.41	7.41	-1.81	-1.81
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.10	2.10	64.52	64.52	0.61	0.61
Howard	MEAC	2.08	2.08	21.43	21.43	-1.19	-1.19
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.03	2.03	23.33	23.33	-1.08	-1.08
Utah Valley	GWC	1.74	1.74	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.70	1.70	73.33	73.33	0.79	0.79
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	1.65	1.65	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Texas Tech	B12	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
Cincinnati	BE	1.59	1.59	65.62	65.62	0.50	0.50
Iowa St.	B12	1.56	1.56	65.62	65.62	0.49	0.49
Seton Hall	BE	1.55	1.55	43.75	43.75	-0.19	-0.19
Radford	BSth	1.54	1.54	35.71	35.71	-0.44	-0.44
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.52	1.52	36.00	36.00	-0.43	-0.43
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.52	1.52	56.00	56.00	0.18	0.18
Georgia Southern	SC	1.50	1.50	40.00	40.00	-0.30	-0.30
NC Greensboro	SC	1.49	1.49	25.00	25.00	-0.75	-0.75
Wright St.	Horz	1.49	1.49	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
Hampton	MEAC	0.73	0.73	45.16	45.16	-0.07	-0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.22	0.22	19.35	19.35	-0.14	-0.14
Central Florida	CUSA	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.19	0.19	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.19	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Pittsburgh	BE	0.19	0.19	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Liberty	BSth	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Winthrop	BSth	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	10.00	10.00	-0.10	-0.10
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.10	0.10	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Elon	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	B12	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.04	0.04	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00