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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:336.0
Current RPI:336
Expected SOS:334
Current SOS:334
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-14
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:296
Expected OOC SOS:221



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23336.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Utah Valley (144.0)WACA78-71L0%0.0
11-15Rhode Island (155.0)A10A72-59L0%0.0
11-24Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA78-71L0%0.0
11-26Mississippi (94.0)SECA84-50L0%0.0
11-29Longwood (337.0)BSthN78-85W100%0.0
11-30Monmouth (292.0)MAACA76-61L0%0.0
12-5Wright St. (173.0)HorzH62-59W100%0.0
12-7Radford (240.0)BSthA72-52L0%0.0
12-14East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA84-71L0%0.0
12-18Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA84-73L0%0.0
12-21Saint Louis (27.0)A10A79-57L0%0.0
12-28Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH63-66L0%0.0
1-4Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA88-72L0%0.0
1-11Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA67-70W100%0.0
1-13Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA76-66L0%0.0
1-18NJIT (308.0)indH88-82W100%0.0
1-20Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH66-55W100%0.0
1-22North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACA84-44L0%0.0
1-25Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH68-67W100%0.0
1-27Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH54-70L0%0.0
2-1Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA67-60L0%0.0
2-3Howard (323.0)MEACA68-60L0%0.0
2-8Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH84-78W100%0.0
2-10Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH71-72L0%0.0
2-15Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA73-48L0%0.0
2-17South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA75-70L0%0.0
2-22North Carolina Central (99.0)MEACH55-73L0%0.0
3-1Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH67-71L0%0.0
3-3South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH62-60W100%0.0
3-6Hampton (204.0)MEACA89-71L0%0.0
3-11Howard (323.0)MEACN53-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.1626.1624.7924.79-13.19-13.19
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.993.9982.7682.762.622.62
Savannah St.MEAC3.883.8832.1432.14-1.39-1.39
Florida A&MMEAC3.873.8739.2939.29-0.83-0.83
South Carolina St.MEAC3.873.8723.0823.08-2.08-2.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.853.8514.2914.29-2.75-2.75
HowardMEAC3.743.7413.7913.79-2.71-2.71
Delaware St.MEAC2.292.2925.9325.93-1.10-1.10
Morgan St.MEAC2.262.2650.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC2.232.2358.6258.620.380.38
Coppin St.MEAC2.212.2133.3333.33-0.74-0.74
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.162.1614.8114.81-1.52-1.52
NJITind1.771.7737.5037.50-0.44-0.44
RadfordBSth1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
LongwoodBSth1.691.6914.8114.81-1.19-1.19
Georgia TechACC1.691.6946.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Georgia SouthernSC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.45-0.45
CharlotteCUSA1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
East CarolinaCUSA1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
Rhode IslandA101.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Saint LouisA101.641.6480.0080.000.980.98
MississippiSEC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
MonmouthMAAC1.611.6132.2632.26-0.57-0.57
Utah ValleyWAC1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
Wright St.Horz1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Norfolk St.MEAC0.780.7853.3353.330.050.05
CampbellBSth0.270.2732.1432.14-0.10-0.10
Old DominionCUSA0.240.2448.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
LibertyBSth0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
FIUCUSA0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
VMIBSth0.160.1655.5655.560.020.02
High PointBSth0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
UABCUSA0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1146.1546.15-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
George WashingtonA100.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.060.06
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
WoffordSC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01