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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


South Florida

Conference:BE
Expected RPI:96.1
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:24
Current SOS:33
Current Record:12-10
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.09%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:71



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1137.90.10%
18-1247.60.95%
17-1360.75.32%
16-1475.116.25%
15-1590.428.51%
14-16104.529.34%
13-17118.815.88%
12-18133.53.64%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Vermont (173.1)AEH61-59W100%0.0
11-14Marist (276.6)MAACH81-67W100%0.0
11-19Old Dominion (126.1)CAAN66-68L0%0.0
11-20Penn St. (163.2)B10N53-49L0%0.0
11-23Georgia Southern (228.1)SCH66-46W100%0.0
11-26Florida Atlantic (179.8)SBH68-55W100%0.0
11-30Virginia Commonwealth (77.2)CAAA69-46L0%0.0
12-3Kansas (8.8)B12A70-42L0%0.0
12-11Florida A&M (329.2)MEACH83-59W100%0.0
12-14Auburn (147.6)SECA52-40L0%0.0
12-19Cleveland St. (52.0)HorzH70-55W100%0.0
12-22Southern Mississippi (15.8)CUSAA53-51L0%0.0
12-28Connecticut (27.1)BEH57-60L0%0.0
1-1Rutgers (141.7)BEH67-65W100%0.0
1-5Villanova (98.5)BEA57-74W100%0.0
1-10Notre Dame (66.5)BEA60-49L0%0.0
1-13Seton Hall (53.1)BEH56-55W100%0.0
1-18St. John's (151.1)BEH64-49W100%0.0
1-22DePaul (187.2)BEA59-75W100%0.0
1-24Marquette (15.5)BEA67-47L0%0.0
1-29Providence (146.8)BEH81-78W100%0.0
2-4Georgetown (13.9)BEA75-45L0%0.0
2-8Pittsburgh (74.5)BEH0-048%-0.5
2-11Providence (146.8)BEA0-040%-2.6
2-15Villanova (98.5)BEH0-050%0.0
2-19Pittsburgh (74.5)BEA0-025%-7.2
2-22Syracuse (2.1)BEA0-04%-18.8
2-26Cincinnati (89.8)BEH0-043%-1.9
2-29Louisville (25.3)BEA0-014%-11.9
3-3West Virginia (31.4)BEH0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaBE26.1025.9953.6646.541.91-1.80
ProvidenceBE2.573.8659.0951.680.470.13
PittsburghBE0.303.8260.8757.810.070.60
VillanovaBE2.523.8247.6247.59-0.12-0.18
Seton HallBE2.722.2768.1865.930.990.72
GeorgetownBE2.622.2680.0076.541.571.20
MarquetteBE2.632.2478.2675.181.491.13
CincinnatiBE0.362.2469.5765.750.140.71
LouisvilleBE0.452.2478.2672.200.250.99
SyracuseBE0.402.2495.8391.880.361.88
West VirginiaBE0.352.2465.2265.110.110.68
St. John'sBE2.582.2245.4541.62-0.23-0.37
Notre DameBE2.522.2163.6461.410.690.50
RutgersBE2.532.2152.1748.380.11-0.07
ConnecticutBE2.622.2166.6762.750.870.56
DePaulBE2.522.2152.3844.310.12-0.25
AuburnSEC2.431.7654.5547.050.22-0.10
Florida A&MMEAC2.371.7520.0023.20-1.42-0.94
Virginia CommonwealthCAA2.371.7579.1777.331.380.96
Old DominionCAA2.361.7558.3356.900.390.24
KansasB122.381.7377.2777.671.300.96
VermontAE2.371.7262.5064.570.590.50
Georgia SouthernSC2.321.6942.1142.95-0.37-0.24
Florida AtlanticSB2.321.6938.1041.19-0.55-0.30
MaristMAAC2.321.6936.3634.62-0.63-0.52
Cleveland St.Horz2.271.6785.7183.211.621.11
Penn St.B102.271.6739.1336.62-0.49-0.45
Southern MississippiCUSA2.271.6785.0081.551.591.05
KentuckySEC0.290.1995.8392.570.270.16
MississippiSEC0.250.1763.6456.710.070.02
MissouriB120.200.1691.3087.180.160.12
TowsonCAA0.230.164.005.26-0.21-0.14
MemphisCUSA0.220.1469.5771.510.080.06
Georgia St.CAA0.200.1466.6769.690.070.06
Western KentuckySB0.140.1434.7834.48-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.240.1432.0035.39-0.09-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.1459.0959.720.010.03
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1454.5556.840.010.02
George MasonCAA0.140.1476.0072.500.070.06
FairfieldMAAC0.200.1454.5554.300.020.01
MaineAE0.150.1450.0049.730.00-0.00
Boston UniversityAE0.190.1448.0051.88-0.010.01
New HampshireAE0.190.1435.0038.58-0.06-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.100.1471.4373.350.040.06
AlbanyAE0.050.1360.0060.420.010.03
NortheasternCAA0.230.1347.8348.56-0.01-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.190.1312.5013.44-0.14-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.160.1252.3852.870.010.01
AmericanPat0.160.1265.2263.790.050.03
SienaMAAC0.150.1145.4545.55-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.150.1118.1822.22-0.09-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1110.0014.93-0.04-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.100.1168.1869.100.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1178.2672.340.060.05
Central FloridaCUSA0.150.1171.4366.600.060.04
AkronMAC0.150.1168.1867.910.050.04
RiderMAAC0.100.1137.5038.52-0.02-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1162.5062.490.040.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1156.5257.720.020.02
HartfordAE0.190.1117.3920.97-0.12-0.06
DelawareCAA0.140.1147.8350.65-0.010.00
DetroitHorz0.150.1147.8349.03-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.050.1170.8368.820.020.04
Louisiana St.SEC0.140.1159.0957.280.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.1145.4544.66-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1169.5765.870.060.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.118.7012.13-0.08-0.08
Iowa St.B120.150.1173.9168.430.070.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.140.1113.6416.35-0.10-0.07
NC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1139.1336.10-0.02-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.1162.5061.500.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1145.4540.70-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0958.3359.980.010.02
DavidsonSC0.110.0976.1976.760.060.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.0952.3857.860.010.01
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0934.7833.46-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.0965.2263.610.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.0938.1042.78-0.04-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0921.7424.58-0.06-0.04
HarvardIvy0.150.0890.4887.910.120.06
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.150.0833.3338.38-0.05-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.150.0844.4441.71-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0879.1780.100.060.05
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0868.0069.070.040.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0837.5041.54-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0840.9139.82-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.100.0865.0060.020.030.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0868.1869.680.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.0845.0046.13-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.0869.5765.150.040.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.150.0819.0521.29-0.10-0.05
RadfordBSth0.100.088.7013.10-0.08-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0817.3924.41-0.07-0.04
ButlerHorz0.050.0850.0050.800.000.00
MonmouthNEC0.100.0828.0028.91-0.04-0.03
St. LouisA100.100.0877.2777.670.050.05
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.0835.0039.38-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0841.6740.61-0.01-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.0850.0051.530.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0879.1778.100.030.05
FloridaSEC0.050.0882.6177.630.030.05
Holy CrossPat0.100.0840.9142.05-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.100.0861.9055.140.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0820.8320.60-0.06-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0868.0070.030.020.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0840.9139.56-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.0831.8225.98-0.04-0.04
WagnerNEC0.050.0882.6184.570.030.06
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0845.4541.20-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0890.9183.850.040.05
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0830.4326.44-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.100.088.3310.86-0.08-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.140.0814.2917.17-0.10-0.05
DuquesneA100.050.0859.0956.350.010.01
IndianaB100.140.0875.0075.780.070.04
James MadisonCAA0.140.0840.0040.18-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0872.7368.280.020.03
Long IslandNEC0.140.0870.8371.050.060.03
OklahomaB120.100.0859.0954.700.020.01
RichmondA100.140.0850.0048.490.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0821.7422.76-0.03-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0866.6768.050.030.03
Texas A&MB120.100.0852.3846.150.00-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.050.0845.0044.15-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0875.0073.970.050.04
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0627.2735.02-0.05-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.110.0633.3335.26-0.04-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.069.5211.44-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.060.0659.0957.930.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.0634.7837.24-0.03-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0638.1037.86-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.0647.8343.66-0.00-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.16-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0683.3384.760.030.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0633.3337.25-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0638.8943.93-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.02
DenverSB0.050.0670.8372.230.020.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0647.6246.46-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.100.0645.8346.68-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0617.3919.81-0.06-0.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0677.2773.450.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0669.5768.900.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0637.5038.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0635.2939.85-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0639.1342.12-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0636.3638.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0634.7835.50-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.100.0647.3752.87-0.010.00
WashingtonP120.100.0669.5766.540.040.02
Arizona St.P120.110.0630.4331.43-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.0655.0054.800.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0641.1842.61-0.02-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0643.4843.31-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0616.6723.02-0.04-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0673.9175.000.020.03
ColgatePat0.050.0630.4329.50-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0661.9058.590.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0672.7371.710.050.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0630.0030.06-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
TempleA100.050.0677.2775.060.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0642.8639.66-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.050.054.769.95-0.05-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.050.0571.4369.050.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.0569.5761.310.040.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0550.0058.160.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0526.3229.79-0.05-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.0556.5255.950.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.0519.0524.61-0.06-0.03
YaleIvy0.090.0572.2263.190.040.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.050.0527.2723.80-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.100.0586.3683.090.070.04
FordhamA100.050.0540.9134.50-0.01-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0534.7832.08-0.01-0.02
IowaB100.050.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0572.7366.810.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0554.1757.200.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0526.0928.60-0.05-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0552.3846.680.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0586.9685.460.070.04
PurdueB100.050.0565.2260.580.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
TexasB120.050.0560.8761.370.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0554.5556.790.000.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0051.730.000.00
ElonSC0.060.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0343.4844.25-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0355.0057.410.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0037.58-0.00-0.01
North TexasSB0.000.0350.0050.010.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.70-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0331.8231.31-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
HoustonCUSA0.000.0347.6244.63-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
TulsaCUSA0.000.0360.8759.050.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0335.0035.26-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0350.0056.760.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.050.0357.1453.120.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
MercerASun0.050.0370.8371.640.020.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0368.1867.640.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.05-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.060.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0330.0037.30-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
CornellIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9138.38-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0381.8281.490.030.02
IllinoisB100.050.0372.7364.430.020.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0317.3922.00-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0334.7838.42-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.020.01
MarylandACC0.050.0359.0950.820.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0034.15-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0376.1972.910.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0370.8364.420.000.01
North DakotaGWC0.050.0333.3341.31-0.02-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0330.0031.54-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0381.8277.200.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0340.9143.66-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0369.5768.290.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.034.359.66-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0360.8759.760.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0318.1821.13-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0356.5255.200.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.61-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.000.0365.2263.740.000.01