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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:67
Current Record:8-25
Expected Record:8-25
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:267
Expected OOC SOS:64



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-25230.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Troy (293.0)SBH77-82L0%0.0
11-16NJIT (207.0)ASunH57-60L0%0.0
11-19George Washington (68.0)A10H67-73L0%0.0
11-21Boston University (196.0)PatH66-78L0%0.0
11-24Albany (107.0)AEH63-61W100%0.0
11-27Kentucky (11.0)SECN63-84L0%0.0
11-29Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH67-57W100%0.0
12-3Delaware (274.0)CAAA67-58L0%0.0
12-5South Carolina (65.0)SECA81-63L0%0.0
12-13North Carolina St. (123.0)ACCH46-65L0%0.0
12-16Jacksonville (289.0)ASunH88-75W100%0.0
12-19UAB (88.0)CUSAH68-79L0%0.0
12-22Seton Hall (19.0)BEA66-49L0%0.0
12-30Houston (87.0)AmerH67-73L0%0.0
1-2SMU (13.0)AmerA72-58L0%0.0
1-6UCF (219.0)AmerA75-64L0%0.0
1-10Cincinnati (48.0)AmerH51-54L0%0.0
1-12Tulane (227.0)AmerH70-81L0%0.0
1-16Memphis (139.0)AmerA71-56L0%0.0
1-20UCF (219.0)AmerH54-64L0%0.0
1-23Houston (87.0)AmerA62-71W100%0.0
1-27Tulane (227.0)AmerA60-73W100%0.0
1-31Temple (60.0)AmerH63-70L0%0.0
2-4Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA88-57L0%0.0
2-7SMU (13.0)AmerH58-92L0%0.0
2-14Temple (60.0)AmerA77-65L0%0.0
2-16East Carolina (217.0)AmerA52-69W100%0.0
2-20Memphis (139.0)AmerH80-71W100%0.0
2-25Connecticut (32.0)AmerH51-81L0%0.0
3-2East Carolina (217.0)AmerH39-52L0%0.0
3-5Tulsa (58.0)AmerA84-74L0%0.0
3-10East Carolina (217.0)AmerN66-71W100%0.0
3-11Temple (60.0)AmerN79-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.3626.3621.9721.97-14.78-14.78
TempleAmer5.315.3162.0762.071.281.28
East CarolinaAmer5.285.2837.9337.93-1.28-1.28
MemphisAmer3.933.9356.2556.250.490.49
TulaneAmer3.923.9234.3834.38-1.22-1.22
UCFAmer3.853.8535.7135.71-1.10-1.10
CincinnatiAmer3.843.8466.6766.671.281.28
HoustonAmer3.813.8172.4172.411.711.71
SMUAmer3.763.7682.1482.142.422.42
ConnecticutAmer2.512.5169.7069.700.990.99
TulsaAmer2.442.4463.3363.330.650.65
NJITASun1.641.6451.7251.720.060.06
George WashingtonA101.641.6468.7568.750.610.61
KentuckySEC1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
South CarolinaSEC1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
AlbanyAE1.591.5976.6776.670.850.85
Boston UniversityPat1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
DelawareCAA1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
JacksonvilleASun1.571.5744.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Seton HallBE1.561.5675.0075.000.780.78
TroySB1.561.5621.4321.43-0.89-0.89
UABCUSA1.541.5480.0080.000.920.92
North Carolina St.ACC1.521.5246.8846.88-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
USC UpstateASun0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
VillanovaBE0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
ButlerBE0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
LipscombASun0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1587.1087.100.110.11
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
New HampshireAE0.150.1558.6258.620.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
UMass LowellAE0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
LafayettePat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
DavidsonA100.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1042.4242.42-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
UMBCAE0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
AmericanPat0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0728.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ArmyPat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
BucknellPat0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.040.0454.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0425.9325.93-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.040.0478.1278.120.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.040.0411.1111.11-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00