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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:166.5
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:250
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-839.00.02%
21-951.40.07%
20-1055.10.34%
19-1171.20.96%
18-1285.32.46%
17-13100.95.04%
16-14119.19.02%
15-15136.912.78%
14-16155.817.17%
13-17174.017.50%
12-18191.614.31%
11-19210.610.27%
10-20228.76.03%
9-21244.72.71%
8-22260.10.87%
7-23274.30.37%
6-24275.30.06%
5-25297.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Jackson St. (317.1)SWACH73-64W100%0.0
11-20UAB (197.0)CUSAA71-73W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (59.1)ACCA0-013%-13.3
11-25Hofstra (145.0)CAAH0-057%2.0
11-29Jacksonville (337.4)ASunH0-092%17.0
12-2Alabama (87.6)SECA0-018%-10.8
12-6Detroit (133.3)HorzA0-028%-7.1
12-15Georgia Southern (224.2)SBH0-073%7.3
12-18Seton Hall (78.6)BEH0-037%-4.0
12-20Florida St. (86.5)ACCN0-023%-8.8
12-23Southeastern Louisiana (266.4)SlndH0-081%10.3
12-28Bowling Green (102.4)MACH0-053%0.9
12-31SMU (33.0)AmerA0-011%-15.0
1-3East Carolina (227.2)AmerH0-070%6.2
1-6Connecticut (16.2)AmerH0-020%-10.1
1-11Tulane (260.2)AmerA0-053%0.8
1-17Tulsa (112.6)AmerH0-048%-0.7
1-22Temple (84.0)AmerA0-022%-9.4
1-25Connecticut (16.2)AmerA0-07%-17.3
1-28SMU (33.0)AmerH0-026%-7.8
1-31Tulsa (112.6)AmerA0-026%-7.9
2-4Temple (84.0)AmerH0-043%-2.2
2-7Cincinnati (48.9)AmerA0-015%-12.2
2-11UCF (194.5)AmerA0-040%-3.0
2-14Memphis (61.3)AmerH0-032%-5.5
2-17Houston (112.5)AmerH0-044%-1.8
2-21East Carolina (227.2)AmerA0-047%-0.9
3-1Houston (112.5)AmerA0-023%-9.0
3-4UCF (194.5)AmerH0-064%4.2
3-7Tulane (260.2)AmerH0-075%7.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer35.4226.33100.0041.8435.42-4.30
UCFAmer0.004.26100.0045.430.00-0.39
TulaneAmer0.004.2050.0033.740.00-1.37
TempleAmer0.004.1866.6760.220.000.85
TulsaAmer0.004.1766.6751.120.000.09
HoustonAmer0.004.15100.0065.680.001.30
ConnecticutAmer0.004.15100.0074.600.002.04
SMUAmer0.004.1433.3366.67-0.001.38
East CarolinaAmer0.004.140.0034.13-0.00-1.31
CincinnatiAmer0.002.62100.0064.170.000.74
MemphisAmer0.002.600.0065.28-0.000.79
Jackson St.SWAC25.001.8450.0036.550.00-0.49
North Carolina St.ACC4.171.80100.0058.224.170.30
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.780.0042.24-0.00-0.28
DetroitHorz0.001.760.0054.83-0.000.17
Florida St.ACC0.001.7550.0055.610.000.20
HofstraCAA0.001.7566.6764.480.000.51
JacksonvilleASun4.171.750.0024.86-4.17-0.88
Georgia SouthernSB0.001.730.0047.73-0.00-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.70100.0062.080.000.41
UABCUSA25.001.690.0045.01-25.00-0.17
AlabamaSEC0.001.67100.0054.990.000.17
Seton HallBE0.001.67100.0057.360.000.25
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.210.0034.26-0.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.180.0032.16-0.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1833.3336.31-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.18100.0084.100.000.12
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.170.0029.61-0.00-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.000.17100.0066.050.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1766.6768.330.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0015.85-0.00-0.12
DukeACC0.000.17100.0086.380.000.12
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.150.0048.57-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.150.0015.68-0.00-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.000.15100.0050.220.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.150.0035.33-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1466.6766.600.000.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.14100.0036.560.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.1450.0041.490.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.1466.6745.850.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.120.0051.04-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.120.0065.86-0.000.04
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0055.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1233.3349.79-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6742.560.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0052.280.000.01
XavierBE0.000.12100.0076.430.000.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.1266.6747.240.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1250.0040.180.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0052.770.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0067.360.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0086.950.000.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.110.0037.20-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1125.0033.23-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1125.0057.21-0.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0038.27-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.11100.0069.720.000.04
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0033.61-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.1133.3344.93-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB6.250.0950.0062.510.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0038.65-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.09100.0043.610.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0016.72-0.00-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0950.0049.490.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0031.91-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.090.0046.41-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0950.0054.170.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0950.0052.540.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.090.0041.53-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0950.0059.230.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.090.0048.03-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0966.6769.310.000.03
MichiganB100.000.09100.0066.870.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0950.0031.730.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0062.680.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0074.210.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0025.67-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0033.17-0.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.08100.0065.850.000.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0850.0060.970.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0031.68-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.080.0038.29-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0038.98-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.080.0038.83-0.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.08100.0055.910.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.080.0043.82-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0073.200.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0866.6751.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0076.260.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.08100.0041.370.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0058.17-0.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
TroySB0.000.060.0046.30-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.95-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0666.6763.580.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0054.180.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.800.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.730.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0027.11-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0067.860.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0041.45-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0054.250.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.640.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.64-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.06100.0057.620.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0045.530.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3338.27-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0650.0054.660.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0043.330.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.060.0036.14-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6757.590.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.060.0041.63-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.630.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.060.0054.04-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.06100.0061.420.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
IndianaB100.000.06100.0063.850.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0086.080.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0059.350.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0072.260.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.31-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.20-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0053.870.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3336.04-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0055.220.000.01
StanfordP120.000.06100.0068.290.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0084.130.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6764.990.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0054.32-0.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0048.390.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0056.150.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0650.0057.440.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0020.87-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0028.82-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6764.270.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3343.51-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.200.000.01
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.28-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3333.43-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.05100.0051.030.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0069.29-0.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0533.3363.09-0.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.050.0043.90-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.050.0062.15-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0041.690.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.05100.0058.280.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.050.0034.27-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0550.0040.300.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.05100.0052.690.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0079.370.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0069.430.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0575.0070.210.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0550.0045.610.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0023.71-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0045.780.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0027.18-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0054.580.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0065.390.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0016.80-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0029.11-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0350.0052.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0077.160.000.02
OregonP120.000.03100.0070.690.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.030.0026.04-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3332.57-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0028.13-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.380.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0025.34-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.03100.0061.270.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0045.03-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.030.0051.62-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0074.770.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.030.0057.16-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0060.570.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0062.660.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0027.74-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.01