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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:296.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:271
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:0-7
Expected Conf Record:1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18219.00.01%
12-19244.60.15%
11-20258.81.22%
10-21271.96.71%
9-22285.722.37%
8-23297.939.73%
7-24308.629.80%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida Atlantic (240.1)CUSAH60-59W100%0.0
11-13Morgan St. (312.1)MEACH53-63L0%0.0
11-15Stetson (305.8)ASunA72-75W100%0.0
11-19Indiana (115.9)B10A70-53L0%0.0
11-22Howard (331.0)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas St. (290.5)SBH72-61W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Michigan (177.4)MACH47-65L0%0.0
11-30Elon (143.0)CAAA79-78L0%0.0
12-2Appalachian St. (266.2)SBA84-61L0%0.0
12-11FIU (287.3)CUSAH53-65L0%0.0
12-14Bethune Cookman (287.3)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
12-18Northern Arizona (316.5)BSkyH70-56W100%0.0
12-21Charlotte (301.3)CUSAH78-76W100%0.0
12-28Houston (41.4)AmerH60-79L0%0.0
12-31SMU (41.4)AmerA79-39L0%0.0
1-3East Carolina (279.3)AmerH65-67L0%0.0
1-7Wichita St. (17.9)AmerA95-57L0%0.0
1-13Cincinnati (11.3)AmerH55-78L0%0.0
1-17East Carolina (279.3)AmerA90-52L0%0.0
1-20UCF (67.3)AmerH69-71L0%0.0
1-25Tulane (107.4)AmerA0-08%-15.7
1-28Houston (41.4)AmerA0-01%-24.5
1-31Memphis (119.3)AmerH0-021%-8.8
2-4Tulsa (129.7)AmerH0-018%-10.3
2-7Connecticut (102.7)AmerA0-07%-16.4
2-10Temple (61.9)AmerH0-012%-13.0
2-14UCF (67.3)AmerA0-04%-20.0
2-18Tulsa (129.7)AmerA0-07%-16.7
2-24Tulane (107.4)AmerH0-020%-9.2
3-1Memphis (119.3)AmerA0-09%-15.2
3-4SMU (41.4)AmerH0-04%-19.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.5226.2327.1720.73-12.10-15.36
East CarolinaAmer5.343.9735.2927.48-1.57-1.79
TulaneAmer0.193.9563.1655.900.050.47
SMUAmer2.703.9268.4268.730.991.47
MemphisAmer0.133.9265.0056.660.040.52
HoustonAmer2.763.8977.7871.121.541.64
TulsaAmer0.263.8955.0050.820.030.06
UCFAmer2.833.8966.6758.220.940.64
Wichita St.Amer2.902.3977.7876.581.611.27
ConnecticutAmer0.262.3652.6345.870.01-0.20
TempleAmer0.262.3652.6350.480.010.02
CincinnatiAmer2.762.3688.8985.042.151.65
Arkansas St.SB2.861.8129.4132.23-1.18-0.64
FIUCUSA2.791.7931.2533.18-1.05-0.60
CharlotteCUSA2.781.7925.0026.58-1.39-0.84
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.791.7840.0039.13-0.56-0.39
HowardMEAC2.791.7611.1128.28-2.17-0.76
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.711.7352.9454.320.160.15
StetsonASun2.711.7235.2938.34-0.80-0.40
IndianaB102.721.7055.5648.980.30-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC2.701.7042.8644.94-0.39-0.17
Appalachian St.SB2.501.6729.4134.90-1.03-0.50
Morgan St.MEAC2.501.6725.0037.30-1.25-0.42
ElonCAA2.571.6450.0049.350.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky2.501.6111.7615.85-1.91-1.10
Coppin St.MEAC0.270.259.5217.94-0.22-0.16
Old DominionCUSA0.230.2078.9576.760.130.11
South AlabamaSB0.210.2050.0045.900.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.140.1744.4446.64-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.170.009.15-0.20-0.14
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1710.0019.62-0.17-0.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.1755.5656.710.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1768.4270.810.050.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.270.1727.7834.50-0.12-0.05
Little RockSB0.070.1722.2225.26-0.04-0.08
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1637.5045.22-0.03-0.02
RiceCUSA0.070.1511.1117.69-0.06-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.290.1557.8966.250.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.290.1433.3334.11-0.10-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.1452.9452.230.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.1425.0028.25-0.14-0.06
UTSACUSA0.150.1441.1839.65-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1415.7920.92-0.10-0.08
UABCUSA0.150.1461.1164.130.030.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.200.1427.7831.67-0.09-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.260.1422.2227.33-0.15-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.140.1466.6765.530.050.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.1426.6729.04-0.09-0.06
DrexelCAA0.130.1430.0030.99-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.160.1231.5835.15-0.06-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.1268.4263.640.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1233.3333.80-0.05-0.04
TowsonCAA0.220.1263.1666.000.060.04
HamptonMEAC0.140.1120.0041.76-0.08-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1147.0641.450.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1118.7536.760.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1143.7554.09-0.020.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1127.7838.130.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.210.1166.6765.620.070.03
NebraskaB100.140.1166.6759.780.050.02
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1168.4254.090.050.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.270.1120.0023.36-0.16-0.06
William & MaryCAA0.130.1164.7159.980.040.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1147.3745.870.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1121.0539.47-0.04-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1152.9455.040.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.1127.7840.97-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.130.1180.0078.980.080.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.1168.4258.990.020.02
LSUSEC0.070.1161.1153.160.010.01
MercerSC0.070.1144.4454.89-0.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.0941.1839.13-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0916.6724.91-0.09-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0952.6355.290.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0972.2274.700.070.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0941.1838.460.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.200.0943.7545.34-0.03-0.01
Texas St.SB0.140.0957.8950.210.020.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.0960.0062.030.030.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0845.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0866.6765.360.050.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.0883.3381.350.090.05
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0847.3748.17-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.140.0863.6457.640.040.01
West VirginiaB120.140.0884.2178.170.100.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.0836.8444.12-0.05-0.01
RadfordBSth0.200.0861.1160.790.040.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0861.1147.260.02-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0880.9576.520.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.0844.4441.15-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.130.0857.8947.140.02-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.140.0850.0053.160.000.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0873.6862.720.030.02
LibertyBSth0.130.0852.9457.320.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.130.0823.5328.21-0.07-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.0845.0045.02-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0868.4264.200.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0885.0083.180.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.070.0877.7869.360.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.0830.0036.48-0.05-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0661.1158.750.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0662.5058.700.020.01
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.360.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.60-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.170.0661.9065.160.040.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0666.6767.690.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1117.96-0.05-0.04
AkronMAC0.150.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.140.0658.8261.440.030.01
Fort WayneSum0.140.0652.6351.700.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.0645.0047.05-0.01-0.00
TroySB0.000.0635.2942.760.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0672.2274.900.030.03
SyracuseACC0.080.0668.4261.270.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0661.1151.900.020.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.0652.3848.520.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0647.3743.040.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.03-0.02-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0657.8959.470.010.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0664.7166.850.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0670.5973.140.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.180.020.01
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.78-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.400.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0538.8935.35-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.130.0589.4785.190.100.04
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0544.4446.10-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.070.0564.7162.780.020.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0512.5025.470.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0545.0049.270.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0545.0041.340.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0538.8944.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0573.6869.610.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0531.5829.060.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0541.1843.41-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0547.3744.270.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.057.6920.09-0.06-0.03
IowaB100.070.0547.6244.03-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0550.0054.850.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0540.0042.570.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0528.5731.27-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0566.6763.200.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0550.0051.480.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0580.0075.050.000.03
Notre DameACC0.130.0563.1661.050.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0530.0032.530.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0570.0060.460.030.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.91-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0547.3742.18-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0550.0046.260.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0589.4777.030.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0594.7490.310.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0570.0068.050.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0578.9576.970.040.03
BryantNEC0.000.059.5217.080.00-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.000.0522.2228.670.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0547.0652.51-0.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0566.6773.240.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.057.1414.82-0.05-0.04
SamfordSC0.000.0527.7832.660.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0530.0031.690.00-0.02
TCUB120.060.0573.6865.590.030.02
UMBCAE0.060.0558.8258.360.010.01
USCP120.060.0571.4368.300.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0344.4442.74-0.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.33-0.05-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.35-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0344.4444.860.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0340.0043.34-0.02-0.00
MaristMAAC0.070.0321.0521.99-0.04-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.420.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0360.0055.160.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0378.9571.810.050.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.070.0352.6346.880.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.070.0340.0047.86-0.01-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.690.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.620.000.00
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.14-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0329.4133.22-0.03-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0360.0060.340.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.500.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.090.020.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.960.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0370.0068.220.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.140.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.460.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0344.4448.91-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.540.020.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.360.030.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0326.3231.52-0.03-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.640.020.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0350.0042.180.00-0.00
BaylorB120.070.0361.1156.090.010.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.210.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.930.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.070.0368.4260.530.020.01
MarylandB100.000.0370.0065.320.000.01
MichiganB100.070.0375.0070.270.030.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
OklahomaB120.070.0377.7867.900.040.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.770.020.00
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.380.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.970.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.71-0.04-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.04-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0051.040.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0320.0032.260.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0327.7840.880.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0365.0063.830.000.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0338.8946.680.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0365.0062.040.020.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.010.00
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02