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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:269.8
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:318
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12130.00.01%
16-13149.70.11%
15-14170.50.20%
14-15186.30.99%
13-16209.02.96%
12-17227.17.32%
11-18245.213.67%
10-19262.118.92%
9-20277.322.48%
8-21290.918.81%
7-22302.79.79%
6-23312.93.89%
5-24320.10.78%
4-25331.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida A&M (346.2)MEACH84-73W100%0.0
11-17Elon (136.0)CAAH61-74L0%0.0
11-19Rider (212.4)MAACH70-65W100%0.0
11-22Florida Atlantic (257.4)CUSAA78-62L0%0.0
11-28Kennesaw St. (308.6)ASunH71-69W100%0.0
12-1Troy (265.2)SBA74-80W100%0.0
12-3George Washington (176.1)A10A0-019%-10.6
12-12Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACH0-084%11.8
12-17South Carolina (17.4)SECH0-05%-20.0
12-20Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-042%-2.4
12-22Delaware (225.1)CAAH0-051%0.4
12-28East Carolina (187.7)AmerA0-020%-9.9
12-31Houston (42.7)AmerH0-08%-16.7
1-7SMU (50.9)AmerA0-03%-22.0
1-11Tulane (269.7)AmerH0-053%1.1
1-14Memphis (120.6)AmerA0-010%-15.6
1-17UCF (51.0)AmerA0-04%-21.3
1-21Tulsa (186.7)AmerH0-040%-3.0
1-25Connecticut (143.2)AmerH0-028%-7.0
1-29Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA0-01%-26.1
2-2Memphis (120.6)AmerH0-022%-9.4
2-5Temple (58.9)AmerA0-06%-18.2
2-8Connecticut (143.2)AmerA0-014%-13.2
2-11East Carolina (187.7)AmerH0-038%-3.8
2-15Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH0-05%-19.9
2-18Tulane (269.7)AmerA0-033%-5.1
2-23Tulsa (186.7)AmerA0-022%-9.2
3-2UCF (51.0)AmerH0-010%-15.1
3-5Temple (58.9)AmerH0-016%-12.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer29.2126.3061.5427.436.74-11.87
UCFAmer0.004.3483.3373.310.002.02
TempleAmer0.004.3071.4361.820.001.02
East CarolinaAmer0.694.2975.0045.900.35-0.35
MemphisAmer0.004.2885.7158.040.000.69
CincinnatiAmer0.004.2685.7179.860.002.54
TulaneAmer0.004.2514.2924.69-0.00-2.15
ConnecticutAmer0.004.2433.3335.76-0.00-1.21
TulsaAmer0.004.2460.0036.920.00-1.11
HoustonAmer0.002.6483.3375.840.001.36
SMUAmer0.002.6457.1468.390.000.97
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.601.8816.6732.49-0.40-0.66
Florida A&MMEAC8.931.870.0024.36-8.93-0.96
George WashingtonA100.001.8457.1442.920.00-0.26
Kennesaw St.ASun9.031.8133.3331.41-3.01-0.67
ElonCAA8.331.8180.0056.535.000.24
DelawareCAA0.001.7840.0040.36-0.00-0.34
South CarolinaSEC0.001.78100.0080.280.001.08
RiderMAAC8.331.7560.0049.591.67-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.691.7542.8644.82-0.10-0.18
Florida AtlanticCUSA8.331.720.0031.86-8.33-0.63
TroySB8.331.7240.0033.38-1.67-0.57
StetsonASun0.690.2428.5728.26-0.30-0.10
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.2362.5056.500.000.03
Texas St.SB0.830.2150.0043.310.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.2083.3358.080.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.180.0034.23-0.00-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1857.1448.240.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.690.1857.1461.940.100.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.180.0024.32-0.00-0.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1783.3377.170.000.09
FIUCUSA0.690.1516.6733.69-0.46-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1516.6736.35-0.00-0.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1557.1440.550.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1550.0033.010.00-0.05
DrexelCAA0.000.1542.8636.82-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.690.150.0034.18-0.69-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0020.01-0.00-0.08
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1471.4371.570.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1257.1459.480.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1216.6737.09-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0038.26-0.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.1260.0057.900.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1214.2931.71-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1283.3356.560.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1225.0030.93-0.00-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.120.0028.15-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0054.490.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.1240.0055.44-0.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1266.6775.370.000.06
SamfordSC0.000.1257.1455.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.120.0024.19-0.00-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.690.1266.6751.090.230.00
LipscombASun0.000.1214.2933.07-0.00-0.04
NJITASun0.000.1242.8650.32-0.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1171.4343.020.00-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1160.0051.780.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.1183.3351.920.000.00
PennIvy0.000.1140.0057.97-0.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0083.120.000.07
Rhode IslandA100.000.1171.4370.330.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1133.3338.19-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.22-0.00-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0950.0071.330.000.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.77-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.690.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0950.0056.430.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0925.0056.92-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0933.3323.33-0.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0950.0055.850.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0950.0047.560.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.25-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0928.5733.92-0.00-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0966.6770.140.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.690.0950.0042.710.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0983.3359.600.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
WagnerNEC0.690.0933.3353.85-0.230.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0933.3343.64-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.600.0942.8644.33-0.09-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0950.0053.050.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0960.0070.140.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0942.8635.68-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0960.0052.760.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0933.3364.14-0.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6754.380.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0857.1442.940.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0825.0024.28-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0850.0060.380.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0885.7162.410.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0862.5043.960.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0850.0046.780.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0828.5750.51-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0685.7173.010.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.830.0675.0054.320.420.01
HawaiiBW1.530.0650.0050.940.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0671.4386.030.000.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.600.0614.2934.56-0.43-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.690.0633.3335.92-0.23-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.690.0650.0050.290.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0650.0053.530.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.390.0650.0043.490.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.410.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3345.60-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.320.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.060.0043.04-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0042.420.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0683.3368.880.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.690.0683.3362.080.460.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0620.0034.22-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.690.0657.1443.680.10-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.830.0357.1440.590.12-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0366.6769.810.200.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
UMBCAE0.600.0380.0055.340.360.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0328.5739.44-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0350.0052.140.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.690.0383.3350.740.460.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0360.0048.590.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0357.1447.220.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.690.0312.5022.55-0.52-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.44-0.00-0.01