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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:273.0
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:107
Current SOS:107
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23273.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH73-64W100%0.0
11-20UAB (130.0)CUSAA71-73W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA68-65L0%0.0
11-25Hofstra (174.0)CAAH71-70W100%0.0
11-29Jacksonville (338.0)ASunH79-65W100%0.0
12-2Alabama (85.0)SECA82-71L0%0.0
12-6Detroit (205.0)HorzA67-57L0%0.0
12-15Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH63-68L0%0.0
12-18Seton Hall (97.0)BEH69-89L0%0.0
12-20Florida St. (110.0)ACCN62-75L0%0.0
12-23Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH78-63W100%0.0
12-28Bowling Green (109.0)MACH70-79L0%0.0
12-31SMU (12.0)AmerA83-49L0%0.0
1-3East Carolina (219.0)AmerH58-50W100%0.0
1-6Connecticut (77.0)AmerH44-58L0%0.0
1-11Tulane (214.0)AmerA56-51L0%0.0
1-17Tulsa (45.0)AmerH58-75L0%0.0
1-22Temple (34.0)AmerA73-48L0%0.0
1-25Connecticut (77.0)AmerA66-53L0%0.0
1-28SMU (12.0)AmerH52-63L0%0.0
1-31Tulsa (45.0)AmerA78-71L0%0.0
2-4Temple (34.0)AmerH48-61L0%0.0
2-7Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA63-58L0%0.0
2-11UCF (257.0)AmerA73-62L0%0.0
2-14Memphis (83.0)AmerH48-75L0%0.0
2-17Houston (239.0)AmerH69-67W100%0.0
2-21East Carolina (219.0)AmerA73-60L0%0.0
3-1Houston (239.0)AmerA72-55L0%0.0
3-4UCF (257.0)AmerH74-45W100%0.0
3-7Tulane (214.0)AmerH63-67L0%0.0
3-12Connecticut (77.0)AmerA69-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.3026.3020.7420.74-15.39-15.39
ConnecticutAmer5.695.6954.8454.840.550.55
SMUAmer4.164.1680.0080.002.502.50
TulsaAmer4.134.1368.9768.971.571.57
UCFAmer4.124.1237.0437.04-1.07-1.07
TempleAmer4.104.1067.7467.741.451.45
East CarolinaAmer4.094.0937.9337.93-0.99-0.99
TulaneAmer4.094.0942.8642.86-0.58-0.58
HoustonAmer4.084.0840.0040.00-0.82-0.82
CincinnatiAmer2.582.5867.7467.740.910.91
MemphisAmer2.532.5354.8454.840.250.25
Jackson St.SWAC1.771.7735.4835.48-0.51-0.51
North Carolina St.ACC1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
DetroitHorz1.701.7040.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Florida St.ACC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA1.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
JacksonvilleASun1.691.6925.0025.00-0.84-0.84
Georgia SouthernSB1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Bowling GreenMAC1.641.6465.5265.520.510.51
UABCUSA1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
AlabamaSEC1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
Seton HallBE1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.190.1987.8887.880.150.15
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
StetsonASun0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1518.7518.75-0.10-0.10
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
North CarolinaACC0.150.1568.5768.570.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.150.1516.1316.13-0.10-0.10
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
TowsonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.100.1093.9493.940.090.09
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1094.1294.120.090.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1064.7164.710.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
DaytonA100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DelawareCAA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0858.3358.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BryantNEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
TexasB120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
YaleIvy0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02