The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated South Florida page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 8, 2010.

South Florida

Conference:		BE
Expected RPI:		65.1
Current RPI:		52
Expected SOS:		46
Current SOS:		26
Current Record:		15-8
Expected Record:		19-11
Current Conf Record:		5-6
Expected Conf Record:		9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		5-0
Current OOC Record:		10-2
Expected OOC Record:		10-2
Expected OOC RPI:		57
Expected OOC SOS:		198

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-8	33.6	0.34%
21-9	42.2	4.13%
20-10	51.9	18.94%
19-11	61.2	32.31%
18-12	71.2	27.64%
17-13	81.4	13.21%
16-14	92.7	3.16%
15-15	106.1	0.26%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Southern Methodist (198.8)	CUSA	A	67-61	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Virginia (91.1)	ACC	H	66-49	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Davidson (159.4)	SC	N	65-58	W	100%	0.0
11-20	South Carolina (73.2)	SEC	N	66-69	L	0%	0.0
11-22	NC Wilmington (225.2)	CAA	N	74-66	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Kent St. (58.3)	MAC	H	76-54	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Florida Atlantic (201.6)	SB	H	78-58	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Hampton (281.7)	MEAC	H	74-55	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Central Michigan (187.2)	MAC	H	56-59	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Central Florida (193.8)	CUSA	H	69-65	W	100%	0.0
12-19	San Francisco (222.6)	WCC	N	69-49	W	100%	0.0
12-20	San Diego (226.5)	WCC	N	69-60	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Louisville (36.8)	BE	A	52-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Notre Dame (75.1)	BE	H	73-74	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Syracuse (3.0)	BE	A	65-82	L	0%	0.0
1-13	West Virginia (5.3)	BE	H	50-69	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Rutgers (162.0)	BE	H	73-64	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Cincinnati (61.6)	BE	A	70-78	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Providence (97.7)	BE	A	109-105	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Seton Hall (72.8)	BE	H	76-74	W	100%	0.0
1-31	Pittsburgh (26.3)	BE	H	70-61	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Georgetown (8.5)	BE	A	72-64	W	100%	0.0
2-7	Notre Dame (75.1)	BE	A	62-65	L	0%	0.0
2-13	Marquette (53.4)	BE	A	0-0		18%	-10.0
2-16	Cincinnati (61.6)	BE	H	0-0		63%	3.7
2-20	St. John's (100.3)	BE	H	0-0		74%	6.9
2-24	Villanova (4.7)	BE	A	0-0		13%	-12.0
2-27	Providence (97.7)	BE	H	0-0		70%	5.7
3-2	DePaul (180.7)	BE	A	0-0		67%	4.9
3-6	Connecticut (54.0)	BE	H	0-0		57%	2.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Florida.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
South Florida	BE	26.21	26.01	63.11	59.85	6.87	5.12
Notre Dame	BE	4.68	3.89	68.18	60.84	1.70	0.84
Cincinnati	BE	2.64	3.85	59.09	54.56	0.48	0.35
Syracuse	BE	2.60	2.25	95.65	91.03	2.37	1.84
Pittsburgh	BE	2.56	2.25	78.26	73.31	1.45	1.05
Rutgers	BE	2.55	2.22	50.00	44.36	0.00	-0.25
West Virginia	BE	2.50	2.22	81.82	78.75	1.59	1.28
Seton Hall	BE	2.50	2.22	60.00	59.55	0.50	0.42
Louisville	BE	2.46	2.22	63.64	60.75	0.67	0.48
Providence	BE	2.45	3.83	54.55	48.87	0.22	-0.09
Georgetown	BE	2.36	2.22	80.95	76.07	1.46	1.16
Central Florida	CUSA	2.32	1.78	50.00	46.09	0.00	-0.14
Kent St.	MAC	2.27	1.72	72.73	72.76	1.03	0.78
San Diego	WCC	2.27	1.73	34.78	34.61	-0.69	-0.53
Virginia	ACC	2.27	1.72	70.00	59.33	0.91	0.32
San Francisco	WCC	2.26	1.72	33.33	33.56	-0.75	-0.57
Hampton	MEAC	2.23	1.70	36.36	44.77	-0.61	-0.18
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.23	1.70	30.43	32.09	-0.87	-0.61
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.23	1.70	47.37	45.57	-0.12	-0.15
Central Michigan	MAC	2.22	1.69	47.37	50.50	-0.12	0.02
Davidson	SC	2.17	1.67	50.00	52.70	0.00	0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.17	1.67	47.62	49.32	-0.10	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	2.17	1.67	57.14	52.87	0.31	0.10
Connecticut	BE	0.43	2.30	60.87	56.97	0.09	0.32
Villanova	BE	0.38	2.22	91.30	85.27	0.32	1.57
St. John's	BE	0.33	2.22	54.55	50.02	0.03	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.33	2.22	34.78	33.94	-0.10	-0.71
Marquette	BE	0.28	2.25	65.22	65.59	0.09	0.70
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.12	31.82	31.64	-0.07	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.20	0.17	82.61	78.53	0.13	0.10
Miami FL	ACC	0.20	0.14	68.18	62.71	0.07	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.17	66.67	68.15	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.20	81.82	83.61	0.12	0.14
Wofford	SC	0.19	0.14	66.67	67.98	0.06	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.17	47.83	44.40	-0.01	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.09	64.00	62.73	0.04	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.12	77.27	70.95	0.09	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.09	45.45	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.09	17.39	20.02	-0.10	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.09	22.22	27.54	-0.08	-0.04
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.09	47.83	48.93	-0.01	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.14	43.48	47.69	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.14	8.70	10.07	-0.12	-0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.11	85.71	85.58	0.11	0.08
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.09	34.78	32.21	-0.05	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.09	76.19	71.16	0.08	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.11	47.83	46.40	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.11	73.91	72.54	0.07	0.05
Albany	AE	0.15	0.09	23.08	25.74	-0.08	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.17	45.83	47.79	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.08	41.67	42.67	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.12	54.17	56.01	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.11	57.14	61.39	0.02	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.08	56.52	51.91	0.02	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.12	86.96	84.64	0.11	0.08
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.08	42.86	41.51	-0.02	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.11	73.91	67.69	0.07	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.15	27.27	25.31	-0.06	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.15	61.90	65.68	0.03	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.12	33.33	34.27	-0.05	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.11	37.50	39.23	-0.03	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.08	42.86	45.64	-0.02	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.08	64.00	63.77	0.04	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.14	0.08	77.27	77.14	0.08	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	36.84	36.81	-0.03	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.12	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.05
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.09	77.27	75.68	0.06	0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.09	31.82	29.57	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.09	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.09	81.82	72.56	0.07	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	45.72	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.09	55.00	51.98	0.01	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.89	-0.00	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.06	81.82	80.91	0.06	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.09	36.36	37.42	-0.03	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.06	70.59	70.97	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.06	86.36	81.79	0.07	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.84	0.05	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	54.55	56.59	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	84.00	84.05	0.07	0.04
Furman	SC	0.10	0.09	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	56.52	59.88	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.08	27.27	31.42	-0.05	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.10	0.11	79.17	77.60	0.06	0.06
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.12	69.57	70.01	0.04	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.08	52.38	53.77	0.00	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	45.45	46.88	-0.01	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.08	24.00	26.47	-0.05	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.12	66.67	65.51	0.03	0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.06	54.17	58.54	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.09	86.36	81.53	0.07	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	53.85	51.13	0.01	0.00
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	28.57	31.10	-0.04	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	58.33	58.90	0.02	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.11	68.18	66.42	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.10	0.09	30.43	32.38	-0.04	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.11	47.62	45.43	-0.00	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.06	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P10	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.88	0.04	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.15	47.62	50.86	-0.00	0.00
Stanford	P10	0.10	0.06	43.48	43.05	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	21.05	22.44	-0.06	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.11	52.17	48.80	0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.10	0.09	22.73	21.40	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.11	95.65	88.68	0.09	0.08
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.09	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.17	71.43	67.91	0.04	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.14	76.19	73.21	0.05	0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.06	39.13	47.68	-0.02	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.06	72.00	73.57	0.04	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.06	75.00	71.22	0.05	0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	54.55	54.07	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	15.79	22.91	-0.06	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.11	72.00	70.67	0.04	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.05	72.00	73.85	0.04	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	22.73	25.50	-0.05	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.08	68.00	67.16	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.44	0.04	0.05
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.08	27.27	31.07	-0.04	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.08	29.17	29.51	-0.04	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.05	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	21.04	-0.06	-0.05
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	54.55	55.03	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.11	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.08	26.09	26.14	-0.04	-0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.11	68.18	66.69	0.03	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.05	28.57	27.82	-0.04	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.08	62.50	57.77	0.02	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.09	0.05	19.05	24.00	-0.06	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.05	65.22	67.02	0.03	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.05	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.08	43.48	45.29	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	67.92	0.04	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.05	30.43	30.24	-0.04	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.05	61.90	56.09	0.02	0.01
UCLA	P10	0.09	0.05	47.83	43.81	-0.00	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.36	-0.05	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	57.14	59.01	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.09	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	20.74	-0.03	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	58.33	58.25	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.06	32.00	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	29.17	28.88	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	22.73	24.06	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.46	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	ind	0.05	0.03	4.76	9.60	-0.05	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.92	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.27	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	62.50	65.37	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	44.00	43.19	-0.01	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.09	20.00	21.93	-0.03	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.10	0.02	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.03	30.43	32.48	-0.02	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	39.13	41.52	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	47.83	44.79	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	16.67	19.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	12.00	18.83	-0.04	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	39.81	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona St.	P10	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.09	0.01	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.74	0.03	0.01
Brigham Young	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.05	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.83	0.02	0.02
Colorado	B12	0.05	0.03	42.86	40.57	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	59.09	52.86	0.01	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.59	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.11	82.61	82.34	0.03	0.07
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.72	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.06	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.15	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	39.13	35.39	-0.01	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.25	0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.30	-0.02	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	52.17	54.93	0.00	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.66	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	SB	0.05	0.03	22.73	22.86	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.68	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.13	0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	50.00	55.35	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.08	81.82	75.63	0.03	0.04
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	47.62	50.37	-0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.64	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.09	69.57	66.00	0.02	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.08	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	52.17	48.42	0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.08	23.81	27.30	-0.02	-0.04
Bryant	ind	0.05	0.08	0.00	4.21	-0.05	-0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	78.26	71.74	0.03	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.71	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.08	56.00	55.95	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	53.72	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.08	9.52	8.90	-0.04	-0.07
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.17	56.49	0.00	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.55	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	4.17	4.75	-0.04	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	30.43	32.84	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.45	43.33	-0.00	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	30.79	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	73.71	0.02	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	53.81	-0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	52.38	56.28	0.00	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	55.56	56.61	0.01	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	14.29	15.66	-0.03	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.56	-0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	54.22	-0.00	0.00
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.05	0.03	27.78	28.62	-0.02	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.06	52.38	54.78	0.00	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	60.87	57.67	0.01	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	30.71	-0.02	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	39.13	38.66	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.94	-0.00	-0.00
California	P10	0.05	0.03	65.22	68.43	0.01	0.01
Campbell	ASun	0.05	0.03	57.14	58.73	0.01	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	39.17	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	65.22	64.72	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	22.73	26.15	-0.02	-0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.99	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.85	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.60	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.02	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.08	69.57	68.49	0.02	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.20	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.03	87.50	83.52	0.03	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.42	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	51.14	0.01	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.11	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	40.00	42.60	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.79	-0.01	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.17	77.01	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	33.33	36.46	-0.02	-0.01
Washington St.	P10	0.05	0.03	63.64	58.77	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	79.17	77.29	0.03	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	31.58	39.01	-0.00	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.60	0.00	0.00
Centenary	Sum	0.00	0.03	27.27	27.20	-0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	47.83	46.15	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.93	0.00	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.06	73.91	69.55	0.00	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.00	0.03	27.78	26.81	-0.00	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.00	0.05	45.45	44.04	-0.00	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	20.83	23.58	-0.00	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	91.30	88.20	0.00	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.00	0.03	12.50	15.32	-0.00	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.06	39.13	36.58	-0.00	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.03	84.00	81.56	0.00	0.02
South Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	50.00	60.47	0.00	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.03	68.18	68.74	0.00	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	20.00	24.03	-0.00	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.94	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
South Florida	BE	26.21	26.01	63.11	59.85	6.87	5.12
Notre Dame	BE	4.68	3.89	68.18	60.84	1.70	0.84
Cincinnati	BE	2.64	3.85	59.09	54.56	0.48	0.35
Providence	BE	2.45	3.83	54.55	48.87	0.22	-0.09
Connecticut	BE	0.43	2.30	60.87	56.97	0.09	0.32
Pittsburgh	BE	2.56	2.25	78.26	73.31	1.45	1.05
Syracuse	BE	2.60	2.25	95.65	91.03	2.37	1.84
Marquette	BE	0.28	2.25	65.22	65.59	0.09	0.70
Rutgers	BE	2.55	2.22	50.00	44.36	0.00	-0.25
Villanova	BE	0.38	2.22	91.30	85.27	0.32	1.57
West Virginia	BE	2.50	2.22	81.82	78.75	1.59	1.28
DePaul	BE	0.33	2.22	34.78	33.94	-0.10	-0.71
Louisville	BE	2.46	2.22	63.64	60.75	0.67	0.48
St. John's	BE	0.33	2.22	54.55	50.02	0.03	0.00
Georgetown	BE	2.36	2.22	80.95	76.07	1.46	1.16
Seton Hall	BE	2.50	2.22	60.00	59.55	0.50	0.42
Central Florida	CUSA	2.32	1.78	50.00	46.09	0.00	-0.14
San Diego	WCC	2.27	1.73	34.78	34.61	-0.69	-0.53
San Francisco	WCC	2.26	1.72	33.33	33.56	-0.75	-0.57
Kent St.	MAC	2.27	1.72	72.73	72.76	1.03	0.78
Virginia	ACC	2.27	1.72	70.00	59.33	0.91	0.32
Hampton	MEAC	2.23	1.70	36.36	44.77	-0.61	-0.18
NC Wilmington	CAA	2.23	1.70	30.43	32.09	-0.87	-0.61
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.23	1.70	47.37	45.57	-0.12	-0.15
Central Michigan	MAC	2.22	1.69	47.37	50.50	-0.12	0.02
Davidson	SC	2.17	1.67	50.00	52.70	0.00	0.09
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.17	1.67	47.62	49.32	-0.10	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	2.17	1.67	57.14	52.87	0.31	0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.20	81.82	83.61	0.12	0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.17	47.83	44.40	-0.01	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.17	71.43	67.91	0.04	0.06
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.17	45.83	47.79	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.20	0.17	82.61	78.53	0.13	0.10
Northeastern	CAA	0.19	0.17	66.67	68.15	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.15	27.27	25.31	-0.06	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.15	61.90	65.68	0.03	0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.15	47.62	50.86	-0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.20	0.14	68.18	62.71	0.07	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.14	8.70	10.07	-0.12	-0.11
Wofford	SC	0.19	0.14	66.67	67.98	0.06	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.14	43.48	47.69	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.14	76.19	73.21	0.05	0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.12	33.33	34.27	-0.05	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.12	86.96	84.64	0.11	0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.12	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.16	0.12	77.27	70.95	0.09	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.12	54.17	56.01	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.12	69.57	70.01	0.04	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.12	31.82	31.64	-0.07	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.12	66.67	65.51	0.03	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.11	47.62	45.43	-0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.14	0.11	57.14	61.39	0.02	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.11	68.18	66.42	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.11	85.71	85.58	0.11	0.08
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.11	47.83	46.40	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.11	79.17	77.60	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.11	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.11	82.61	82.34	0.03	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.11	52.17	48.80	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.11	73.91	72.54	0.07	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.11	69.57	71.44	0.04	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.14	0.11	73.91	67.69	0.07	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.11	72.00	70.67	0.04	0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.11	68.18	66.69	0.03	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.11	37.50	39.23	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.11	95.65	88.68	0.09	0.08
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.09	64.00	62.73	0.04	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.09	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.09	77.27	75.68	0.06	0.05
American	Pat	0.10	0.09	30.43	32.38	-0.04	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.09	52.38	51.63	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	46.89	-0.00	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.10	0.09	42.86	41.05	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.09	17.39	20.02	-0.10	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.09	36.36	37.42	-0.03	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	36.84	36.81	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.15	0.09	47.83	48.93	-0.01	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	54.55	56.59	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.09	20.00	21.93	-0.03	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.09	31.82	29.57	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.15	0.09	23.08	25.74	-0.08	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.10	0.09	22.73	21.40	-0.05	-0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.15	0.09	34.78	32.21	-0.05	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.09	81.82	72.56	0.07	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.09	69.57	66.00	0.02	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.09	47.62	45.72	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.09	55.00	51.98	0.01	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.09	86.36	81.53	0.07	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.09	45.45	42.64	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.09	22.22	27.54	-0.08	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.09	58.33	54.32	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.15	0.09	76.19	71.16	0.08	0.04
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.08	27.27	31.42	-0.05	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.08	69.57	68.49	0.02	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.08	41.67	42.67	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.08	52.38	53.77	0.00	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.08	18.18	21.04	-0.06	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.08	24.00	26.47	-0.05	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.14	0.08	56.52	51.91	0.02	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.08	56.52	54.14	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.08	23.81	27.30	-0.02	-0.04
Bryant	ind	0.05	0.08	0.00	4.21	-0.05	-0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.08	29.17	29.51	-0.04	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.08	56.00	55.95	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.08	9.52	8.90	-0.04	-0.07
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.08	62.50	57.77	0.02	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.08	54.55	55.03	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	22.73	25.50	-0.05	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.08	81.82	75.63	0.03	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.08	26.09	26.14	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.08	68.00	67.16	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.14	0.08	77.27	77.14	0.08	0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.08	42.86	41.51	-0.02	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.08	42.86	45.64	-0.02	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.08	43.48	45.29	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.08	64.00	63.77	0.04	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.09	0.08	27.27	31.07	-0.04	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	24.00	23.72	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	52.17	54.93	0.00	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.06	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	47.62	50.37	-0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	54.55	54.07	0.01	0.00
Washington	P10	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.88	0.04	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	84.00	84.05	0.07	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.06	55.56	55.84	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	58.33	58.25	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.06	22.73	26.15	-0.02	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.06	32.00	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.06	29.17	28.88	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.06	16.67	19.93	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.10	0.06	70.59	70.97	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.06	86.36	81.79	0.07	0.04
Samford	SC	0.10	0.06	28.57	31.10	-0.04	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.10	0.06	72.73	66.84	0.05	0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.19	-0.04	-0.02
Stanford	P10	0.10	0.06	43.48	43.05	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.06	81.82	80.91	0.06	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.83	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	45.45	46.88	-0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.06	73.91	69.55	0.00	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	56.52	59.88	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.06	39.13	41.52	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.06	72.00	73.57	0.04	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	53.85	51.13	0.01	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	58.33	58.90	0.02	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	21.05	22.44	-0.06	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.06	73.68	75.41	0.02	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.06	39.13	47.68	-0.02	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.06	54.17	58.54	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	15.79	22.91	-0.06	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.71	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.17	56.49	0.00	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	30.43	32.84	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.45	43.33	-0.00	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	23.81	30.79	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.06	53.81	-0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.06	75.00	71.22	0.05	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.06	39.13	36.58	-0.00	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	54.22	-0.00	0.00