live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:116.8
Current RPI:56
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:108
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:136



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-520.00.04%
24-628.60.09%
23-732.60.28%
22-841.60.94%
21-953.92.63%
20-1066.26.08%
19-1179.49.81%
18-1293.614.58%
17-13109.017.40%
16-14124.817.25%
15-15141.113.55%
14-16157.88.96%
13-17176.14.92%
12-18194.72.22%
11-19210.40.87%
10-20227.80.28%
9-21252.10.07%
8-22260.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Jackson St. (284.9)SWACH73-64W100%0.0
11-20UAB (199.9)CUSAA71-73W100%0.0
11-23North Carolina St. (34.5)ACCA68-65L0%0.0
11-25Hofstra (100.2)CAAH71-70W100%0.0
11-29Jacksonville (324.1)ASunH0-094%18.8
12-2Alabama (69.6)SECA0-023%-8.7
12-6Detroit (111.7)HorzA0-036%-4.3
12-15Georgia Southern (196.3)SBH0-079%9.8
12-18Seton Hall (45.4)BEH0-039%-3.3
12-20Florida St. (165.5)ACCN0-051%0.4
12-23Southeastern Louisiana (292.0)SlndH0-090%15.5
12-28Bowling Green (101.2)MACH0-061%3.5
12-31SMU (45.7)AmerA0-019%-10.7
1-3East Carolina (229.7)AmerH0-079%9.6
1-6Connecticut (31.3)AmerH0-035%-4.8
1-11Tulane (232.8)AmerA0-058%2.4
1-17Tulsa (100.1)AmerH0-055%1.4
1-22Temple (136.8)AmerA0-043%-2.3
1-25Connecticut (31.3)AmerA0-016%-11.9
1-28SMU (45.7)AmerH0-038%-3.5
1-31Tulsa (100.1)AmerA0-031%-5.8
2-4Temple (136.8)AmerH0-066%4.9
2-7Cincinnati (70.6)AmerA0-029%-6.7
2-11UCF (232.8)AmerA0-059%2.9
2-14Memphis (58.1)AmerH0-040%-3.1
2-17Houston (141.4)AmerH0-062%3.8
2-21East Carolina (229.7)AmerA0-058%2.5
3-1Houston (141.4)AmerA0-039%-3.4
3-4UCF (232.8)AmerH0-080%10.1
3-7Tulane (232.8)AmerH0-079%9.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer30.3126.3181.2553.7618.951.98
UCFAmer0.004.2466.6740.760.00-0.78
TulaneAmer0.004.1866.6740.460.00-0.80
TempleAmer0.004.1760.0050.640.000.05
TulsaAmer0.004.1660.0055.350.000.44
HoustonAmer0.004.1366.6761.170.000.92
ConnecticutAmer0.004.1375.0068.610.001.54
East CarolinaAmer0.004.1325.0035.67-0.00-1.18
SMUAmer0.004.1350.0064.850.001.23
CincinnatiAmer0.002.61100.0060.730.000.56
MemphisAmer0.002.5850.0069.010.000.98
Jackson St.SWAC15.311.8425.0045.00-7.66-0.18
North Carolina St.ACC15.001.80100.0064.2815.000.52
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.7820.0035.49-0.00-0.52
DetroitHorz0.001.7660.0058.200.000.29
Florida St.ACC0.001.7540.0038.38-0.00-0.41
HofstraCAA13.751.7575.0070.506.880.72
JacksonvilleASun3.751.750.0026.31-3.75-0.83
Georgia SouthernSB0.001.7350.0052.220.000.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.001.70100.0062.520.000.42
UABCUSA13.751.6933.3341.95-4.58-0.27
AlabamaSEC0.001.6780.0057.800.000.26
Seton HallBE0.001.67100.0064.260.000.48
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.210.0038.94-0.00-0.05
StetsonASun0.000.180.0030.90-0.00-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1720.0031.23-0.00-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.170.0030.94-0.00-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.17100.0084.900.000.12
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0015.65-0.00-0.12
North CarolinaACC0.000.1775.0067.420.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1780.0071.830.000.07
DukeACC0.000.16100.0083.600.000.11
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1550.0027.510.00-0.07
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1525.0051.72-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1566.6751.210.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.14100.0045.580.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1450.0036.120.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1450.0064.920.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.140.0030.79-0.00-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.000.1466.6751.600.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.1480.0057.990.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1266.6750.220.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.1175.0077.520.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1140.0038.45-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.1140.0052.52-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1166.6750.870.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0088.520.000.09
Oklahoma St.B120.000.11100.0061.400.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.1160.0037.550.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.11100.0060.970.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.11100.0058.520.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1116.6731.72-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1180.0046.930.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0035.41-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0040.80-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1166.6747.140.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.11100.0077.810.000.06
NortheasternCAA0.000.1180.0066.690.000.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1140.0053.46-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.11100.0077.100.000.06
ClemsonACC0.000.1160.0050.770.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.110.0019.74-0.00-0.07
Louisiana MonroeSB1.560.0933.3357.92-0.520.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.090.0039.18-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0950.0042.970.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.63-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.47-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6749.610.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0925.0049.12-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.42-0.00-0.06
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0925.0052.61-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0966.6756.860.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.610.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0975.0071.150.000.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0079.750.000.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.090.0024.09-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0052.660.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0925.0036.41-0.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0975.0064.910.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.0880.0062.960.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0850.0040.810.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.080.0032.51-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.080.0042.16-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0875.0064.980.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.64-0.00-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.08100.0066.690.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.08100.0069.720.000.03
La SalleA100.000.08100.0056.620.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.080.0049.14-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.08100.0079.800.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0860.0057.880.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0073.600.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0036.000.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.83-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.690.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.630.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0043.61-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.190.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.13-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.180.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6761.870.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3330.11-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0675.0066.110.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.060.0045.69-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0640.0026.51-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0047.220.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.50-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6751.430.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0041.79-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.71-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0640.0060.24-0.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0057.50-0.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0064.230.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0055.990.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0633.3359.02-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0044.18-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0072.490.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0680.0074.900.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.00-0.00-0.03
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.440.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4357.180.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.110.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0650.0049.570.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.150.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.87-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0633.3367.86-0.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.44-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.60-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0650.0032.470.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0056.00-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0028.63-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.290.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.210.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.580.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0650.0040.550.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.26-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0024.98-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.110.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0068.13-0.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.31-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.61-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0071.480.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0022.25-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6726.420.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0061.350.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0660.0056.970.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.070.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0650.0037.010.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0046.27-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0036.91-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.85-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0048.64-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0051.520.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.970.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0080.270.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.260.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0053.810.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0575.0053.300.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.050.0066.35-0.000.02
Stony BrookAE1.250.0550.0065.760.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0550.0044.110.00-0.01
WagnerNEC1.250.050.0045.08-1.25-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.050.0062.99-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0033.69-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0566.6759.500.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.08-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0566.6753.550.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0525.0039.67-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0520.0036.68-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0540.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.05100.0049.260.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.050.0020.69-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0566.6759.280.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0079.150.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0583.3369.220.000.02
PennIvy0.000.050.0023.29-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0560.0039.490.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0580.0068.140.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0575.0051.700.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0575.0056.120.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.110.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0054.940.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0325.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.95-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.420.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0038.820.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3329.25-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.510.000.00
WisconsinB101.560.03100.0086.461.560.02
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.110.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.060.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2931.08-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.350.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0036.09-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.280.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0062.480.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.27-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0333.3354.15-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.41-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.66-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.39-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.520.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0041.72-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.310.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.530.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0046.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3350.63-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0380.0063.410.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.080.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0048.44-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3353.30-0.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0048.57-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0325.0048.11-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.600.000.01
RichmondA101.250.0350.0064.050.000.01
St. BonaventureA101.250.0375.0052.090.620.00
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.78-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.430.000.01