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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:296.3
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:327
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:334
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14179.00.05%
16-15192.80.05%
15-16207.40.31%
14-17227.90.76%
13-18243.62.31%
12-19259.36.11%
11-20273.311.00%
10-21286.917.01%
9-22298.320.15%
8-23308.618.33%
7-24316.713.43%
6-25324.37.01%
5-26330.22.69%
4-27334.70.64%
3-28339.30.12%
2-29343.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida Atlantic (273.2)CUSAH60-59W100%0.0
11-13Morgan St. (319.1)MEACH53-63L0%0.0
11-15Stetson (321.2)ASunA72-75W100%0.0
11-19Indiana (137.3)B10A0-08%-17.1
11-22Howard (252.7)MEACH0-057%2.1
11-24Arkansas St. (221.5)SBH0-043%-2.1
11-26Eastern Michigan (127.9)MACH0-029%-6.7
11-30Elon (159.7)CAAA0-017%-11.4
12-2Appalachian St. (278.0)SBA0-036%-4.3
12-11FIU (322.8)CUSAH0-066%5.0
12-14Bethune Cookman (339.2)MEACH0-077%8.8
12-18Northern Arizona (302.6)BSkyH0-070%6.3
12-21Charlotte (237.7)CUSAH0-042%-2.5
12-28Houston (111.4)AmerH0-017%-11.3
12-31SMU (35.9)AmerA0-02%-25.8
1-3East Carolina (279.3)AmerH0-047%-0.9
1-7Wichita St. (10.9)AmerA0-01%-30.8
1-13Cincinnati (17.4)AmerH0-02%-24.9
1-17East Carolina (279.3)AmerA0-028%-6.9
1-20UCF (73.2)AmerH0-013%-13.5
1-25Tulane (133.8)AmerA0-012%-14.3
1-28Houston (111.4)AmerA0-07%-17.3
1-31Memphis (137.0)AmerH0-023%-8.9
2-4Tulsa (155.3)AmerH0-022%-9.1
2-7Connecticut (68.1)AmerA0-05%-19.8
2-10Temple (53.0)AmerH0-012%-14.1
2-14UCF (73.2)AmerA0-05%-19.5
2-18Tulsa (155.3)AmerA0-010%-15.1
2-24Tulane (133.8)AmerH0-024%-8.3
3-1Memphis (137.0)AmerA0-011%-14.9
3-4SMU (35.9)AmerH0-05%-19.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer38.8926.2658.8224.496.86-13.40
East CarolinaAmer0.004.0033.3332.430.00-1.40
TulaneAmer0.003.97100.0052.160.000.17
MemphisAmer0.003.9550.0048.430.00-0.12
SMUAmer0.003.95100.0074.750.001.95
HoustonAmer0.003.9266.6751.150.000.09
UCFAmer0.003.92100.0059.540.000.75
TulsaAmer0.003.9150.0046.100.00-0.31
Wichita St.Amer0.002.42100.0081.650.001.53
TempleAmer0.002.39100.0055.480.000.26
CincinnatiAmer0.002.39100.0081.790.001.52
ConnecticutAmer0.002.39100.0054.980.000.24
Arkansas St.SB0.001.8233.3341.480.00-0.31
FIUCUSA2.781.790.0024.64-2.78-0.91
CharlotteCUSA0.001.790.0045.180.00-0.17
Florida AtlanticCUSA16.671.780.0033.46-16.67-0.59
HowardMEAC0.001.760.0046.190.00-0.13
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.730.0035.890.00-0.49
StetsonASun16.671.7350.0034.920.00-0.52
IndianaB100.001.7033.3339.460.00-0.36
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.70100.0052.590.000.09
Appalachian St.SB0.001.670.0027.420.00-0.75
Morgan St.MEAC16.671.670.0032.66-16.67-0.58
ElonCAA0.001.6433.3349.690.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.001.610.0024.240.00-0.83
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.250.0022.840.00-0.14
Old DominionCUSA0.000.2175.0072.950.000.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.2033.3345.780.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1850.0036.640.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.170.0025.140.00-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.170.0018.400.00-0.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.170.0021.590.00-0.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1766.6748.280.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.170.0037.050.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.160.0042.810.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1533.3336.410.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1566.6773.200.000.07
UTSACUSA0.000.1533.3338.350.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1433.3353.190.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.140.0034.040.00-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.140.0048.070.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.140.0031.810.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.14100.0078.750.000.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.140.0028.770.00-0.06
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1433.3346.880.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.1433.3339.360.00-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.1450.0065.140.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6749.100.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.120.0045.040.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.120.0036.690.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1250.0066.710.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.120.0051.690.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.120.0029.620.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1166.6740.070.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.11100.0039.920.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0042.850.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.110.0049.250.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1133.3347.670.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1166.6768.790.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.11100.0059.540.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.1133.3335.210.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.110.0044.130.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0044.630.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1133.3333.580.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0033.850.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1150.0050.360.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.11100.0061.320.000.02
MercerSC0.000.1175.0076.250.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.11100.0046.080.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.09100.0063.590.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6768.320.000.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.090.0034.600.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.090.0031.380.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.09100.0071.700.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0051.410.000.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6745.880.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.09100.0055.280.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0933.3346.090.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0933.3346.410.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.09100.0071.560.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.08100.0064.470.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0850.0038.730.00-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.08100.0062.930.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0850.0059.190.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.910.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.080.0047.690.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0833.3338.050.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.080.0032.770.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0833.3360.630.000.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0850.0046.150.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0850.0035.330.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0059.870.000.02
RutgersB100.000.08100.0046.880.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.08100.0066.990.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3345.540.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0666.6748.040.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0633.3333.210.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0050.450.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0666.6765.630.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.06100.0062.240.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.170.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0633.3327.100.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6756.330.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0083.700.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0066.490.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0035.610.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0666.6754.900.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0022.920.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0023.260.00-0.03
PennIvy0.000.0633.3349.350.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0666.6753.390.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.150.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.060.0052.900.000.00
USCP120.000.06100.0073.190.000.03
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0082.960.000.04
DukeACC0.000.05100.0083.580.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0533.3343.810.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0566.6766.970.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0037.120.00-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0566.6742.170.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.05100.0068.200.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0533.3336.170.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.05100.0059.240.000.01
IowaB100.000.05100.0058.250.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0525.0045.730.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0550.0077.820.000.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0550.0043.710.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.05100.0078.160.000.03
AlbanyAE0.000.05100.0072.510.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.050.0030.230.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.050.0038.210.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.05100.0070.960.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0533.3347.970.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.050.0037.060.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
BinghamtonAE2.780.0325.0038.08-1.39-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.030.0040.830.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0375.0048.930.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.780.0333.3329.98-0.93-0.01
West VirginiaB122.780.0366.6771.200.930.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0366.6740.170.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0333.3326.430.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0333.3347.540.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0333.3338.880.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.130.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.030.0026.150.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0036.830.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.030.0030.350.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3346.330.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0050.310.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0333.3350.350.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0068.280.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.030.0047.400.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0325.0050.070.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0056.560.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
PurdueB100.000.03100.0085.360.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0039.640.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01