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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:232.0
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:136
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20232.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH72-62W100%0.0
11-12Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH91-65W100%0.0
11-15Bowling Green (194.0)MACA61-75W100%0.0
11-22Stetson (333.0)ASunH72-63W100%0.0
11-25Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H67-93L0%0.0
11-30Detroit (230.0)HorzH60-65L0%0.0
12-4George Mason (164.0)A10A66-68W100%0.0
12-7Alabama (124.0)SECH66-64W100%0.0
12-17Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH68-66W100%0.0
12-19Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH73-70W100%0.0
12-22Mississippi St. (245.0)SECN71-66L0%0.0
12-23Santa Clara (210.0)WCCN66-65L0%0.0
12-28Bradley (265.0)MVCA57-61W100%0.0
12-31Memphis (37.0)AmerH73-88L0%0.0
1-4Houston (143.0)AmerH58-67L0%0.0
1-9Temple (175.0)AmerA75-82W100%0.0
1-15SMU (53.0)AmerA71-54L0%0.0
1-18Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH54-61L0%0.0
1-22Louisville (19.0)AmerH47-86L0%0.0
1-26Memphis (37.0)AmerA80-58L0%0.0
1-28SMU (53.0)AmerH78-71W100%0.0
2-2Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA50-45L0%0.0
2-5UCF (220.0)AmerA78-79W100%0.0
2-8Rutgers (192.0)AmerH69-79L0%0.0
2-12Connecticut (22.0)AmerA83-40L0%0.0
2-15UCF (220.0)AmerH74-75L0%0.0
2-18Louisville (19.0)AmerA80-54L0%0.0
2-26Connecticut (22.0)AmerH56-61L0%0.0
3-1Rutgers (192.0)AmerA74-73L0%0.0
3-4Houston (143.0)AmerA78-69L0%0.0
3-8Temple (175.0)AmerH65-66L0%0.0
3-12Rutgers (192.0)AmerN72-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.3326.3334.5734.57-8.13-8.13
RutgersAmer5.545.5427.5927.59-2.48-2.48
ConnecticutAmer4.134.1375.0075.002.062.06
LouisvilleAmer4.134.1384.3884.382.842.84
UCFAmer4.094.0937.0437.04-1.06-1.06
CincinnatiAmer4.064.0680.6580.652.492.49
HoustonAmer4.054.0548.3948.39-0.13-0.13
MemphisAmer4.044.0468.9768.971.531.53
TempleAmer4.004.0027.5927.59-1.80-1.80
SMUAmer4.004.0073.3373.331.871.87
Florida A&MMEAC1.761.7641.3841.38-0.30-0.30
StetsonASun1.741.7423.3323.33-0.93-0.93
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.721.7217.2417.24-1.13-1.13
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
Oklahoma St.B121.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
DetroitHorz1.661.6634.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6440.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Bowling GreenMAC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
AlabamaSEC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
BradleyMVC1.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
George MasonA101.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Santa ClaraWCC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Tennessee TechOVC1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1713.7913.79-0.12-0.12
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1583.8783.870.100.10
North FloridaASun0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
FIUCUSA0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.130.1381.2581.250.080.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Rhode IslandA100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.120.1270.3770.370.050.05
LSUSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
LipscombASun0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.120.1251.8551.850.000.00
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
HofstraCAA0.090.0930.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
StanfordP120.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
KansasB120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.053.703.70-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00