The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated South Florida page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 11, 2010.

South Florida

Conference:		BE
Expected RPI:		70.1
Current RPI:		70
Expected SOS:		61
Current SOS:		57
Current Record:		20-12
Expected Record:		20-12
Current Conf Record:		10-10
Expected Conf Record:		10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		8-0
Current OOC Record:		10-2
Expected OOC Record:		10-2
Expected OOC RPI:		71
Expected OOC SOS:		234

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record		Expected RPI		Probability
20-12		70.1		100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Southern Methodist (210.1)	CUSA	A	67-61	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Virginia (125.0)	ACC	H	66-49	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Davidson (180.2)	SC	N	65-58	W	100%	0.0
11-20	South Carolina (92.3)	SEC	N	66-69	L	0%	0.0
11-22	NC Wilmington (237.1)	CAA	N	74-66	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Kent St. (49.5)	MAC	H	76-54	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Florida Atlantic (215.8)	SB	H	78-58	W	100%	0.0
12-2	Hampton (279.2)	MEAC	H	74-55	W	100%	0.0
12-13	Central Michigan (194.9)	MAC	H	56-59	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Central Florida (189.8)	CUSA	H	69-65	W	100%	0.0
12-19	San Francisco (206.7)	WCC	N	69-49	W	100%	0.0
12-20	San Diego (230.2)	WCC	N	69-60	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Louisville (38.4)	BE	A	52-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Notre Dame (46.8)	BE	H	73-74	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Syracuse (4.6)	BE	A	65-82	L	0%	0.0
1-13	West Virginia (4.1)	BE	H	50-69	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Rutgers (160.0)	BE	H	73-64	W	100%	0.0
1-20	Cincinnati (61.5)	BE	A	70-78	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Providence (139.3)	BE	A	109-105	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Seton Hall (59.8)	BE	H	76-74	W	100%	0.0
1-31	Pittsburgh (15.3)	BE	H	70-61	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Georgetown (8.4)	BE	A	72-64	W	100%	0.0
2-7	Notre Dame (46.8)	BE	A	62-65	L	0%	0.0
2-13	Marquette (45.6)	BE	A	52-63	L	0%	0.0
2-16	Cincinnati (61.5)	BE	H	65-57	W	100%	0.0
2-20	St. John's (82.3)	BE	H	58-74	L	0%	0.0
2-24	Villanova (12.6)	BE	A	49-74	L	0%	0.0
2-27	Providence (139.3)	BE	H	99-93	W	100%	0.0
3-2	DePaul (212.1)	BE	A	63-59	W	100%	0.0
3-6	Connecticut (62.6)	BE	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
3-9	DePaul (212.1)	BE	N	58-49	W	100%	0.0
3-10	Georgetown (8.4)	BE	N	49-69	L	0%	0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Florida.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
South Florida	BE	26.05	26.04	60.56	60.56	5.50	5.50
Cincinnati	BE	3.72	3.71	54.84	54.84	0.36	0.36
Notre Dame	BE	3.72	3.74	67.74	66.37	1.32	1.22
Georgetown	BE	3.67	3.69	72.41	71.82	1.64	1.61
DePaul	BE	3.64	3.64	27.59	27.59	-1.63	-1.63
Providence	BE	3.64	3.64	41.38	41.38	-0.63	-0.63
Marquette	BE	2.21	2.25	67.74	67.04	0.78	0.77
Syracuse	BE	2.21	2.20	87.10	87.10	1.64	1.63
Rutgers	BE	2.20	2.20	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Seton Hall	BE	2.20	2.20	63.33	63.33	0.59	0.59
Connecticut	BE	2.20	2.19	54.84	54.84	0.21	0.21
St. John's	BE	2.18	2.17	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Pittsburgh	BE	2.18	2.17	77.42	77.42	1.19	1.19
Villanova	BE	2.15	2.15	76.67	76.67	1.15	1.14
West Virginia	BE	2.15	2.19	80.00	79.88	1.29	1.31
Louisville	BE	2.15	2.15	61.29	61.29	0.49	0.48
Central Florida	CUSA	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
San Diego	WCC	1.62	1.62	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Kent St.	MAC	1.61	1.61	73.33	73.33	0.75	0.75
San Francisco	WCC	1.61	1.61	37.04	37.04	-0.42	-0.42
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.61	1.61	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	51.72	50.14	0.06	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	1.59	1.59	46.67	46.00	-0.11	-0.13
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.59	1.59	30.00	30.00	-0.64	-0.64
Central Michigan	MAC	1.59	1.59	46.43	46.43	-0.11	-0.11
Davidson	SC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.56	1.56	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
South Carolina	SEC	1.56	1.56	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Portland	WCC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	75.86	75.54	0.08	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	75.86	75.97	0.08	0.08
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.00	59.43	0.03	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.36	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.15	83.87	84.24	0.08	0.10
Temple	A10	0.13	0.12	83.87	84.00	0.08	0.08
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.42	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	83.33	82.83	0.07	0.07
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	68.75	67.65	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.67	45.83	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	36.67	35.81	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	86.21	86.21	0.07	0.07
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	53.66	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.00	68.99	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.21	0.04	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	77.42	76.92	0.06	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.13	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	93.55	93.22	0.09	0.09
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.33	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P10	0.08	0.08	70.97	71.33	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.58	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.08	0.08	87.50	87.50	0.06	0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	73.33	72.98	0.04	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.05	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.07	56.25	55.27	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.07	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	26.48	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.07	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	ind	0.08	0.07	31.82	31.82	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.42	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	ind	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	74.07	74.07	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	48.28	47.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	86.67	86.62	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	57.14	56.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	73.33	71.50	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	76.67	75.56	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.05	45.16	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.42	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	47.42	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	18.52	18.52	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.00	55.71	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	87.50	87.50	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.80	0.03	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	24.00	24.00	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.01	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.07	73.53	73.54	0.02	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	46.67	45.68	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	47.06	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	18.52	18.52	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	61.06	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	46.15	46.15	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	65.52	64.59	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	49.68	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P10	0.05	0.05	45.16	44.05	-0.00	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	MWC	0.03	0.03	87.50	86.60	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	B12	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
New Orleans	SB	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	55.56	55.56	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.63	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.48	36.21	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	ind	0.03	0.03	12.00	12.72	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	63.33	62.38	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.69	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.78	34.78	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	80.00	78.82	0.02	0.01
Boise St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	63.56	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	90.62	89.55	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.02	77.42	77.62	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.59	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.41	71.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.02	51.85	52.74	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.03	0.02	32.00	33.43	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.02	0.02	61.29	60.55	0.01	0.01
California	P10	0.02	0.02	70.97	71.58	0.01	0.01
Centenary	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	23.08	22.57	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	GWC	0.02	0.02	64.00	64.74	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	18.52	18.52	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.82	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
South Florida	BE	26.05	26.04	60.56	60.56	5.50	5.50
Notre Dame	BE	3.72	3.74	67.74	66.37	1.32	1.22
Cincinnati	BE	3.72	3.71	54.84	54.84	0.36	0.36
Georgetown	BE	3.67	3.69	72.41	71.82	1.64	1.61
DePaul	BE	3.64	3.64	27.59	27.59	-1.63	-1.63
Providence	BE	3.64	3.64	41.38	41.38	-0.63	-0.63
Marquette	BE	2.21	2.25	67.74	67.04	0.78	0.77
Syracuse	BE	2.21	2.20	87.10	87.10	1.64	1.63
Rutgers	BE	2.20	2.20	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Seton Hall	BE	2.20	2.20	63.33	63.33	0.59	0.59
West Virginia	BE	2.15	2.19	80.00	79.88	1.29	1.31
Connecticut	BE	2.20	2.19	54.84	54.84	0.21	0.21
St. John's	BE	2.18	2.17	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Pittsburgh	BE	2.18	2.17	77.42	77.42	1.19	1.19
Louisville	BE	2.15	2.15	61.29	61.29	0.49	0.48
Villanova	BE	2.15	2.15	76.67	76.67	1.15	1.14
Central Florida	CUSA	1.69	1.69	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
San Diego	WCC	1.62	1.62	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Kent St.	MAC	1.61	1.61	73.33	73.33	0.75	0.75
San Francisco	WCC	1.61	1.61	37.04	37.04	-0.42	-0.42
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.61	1.61	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Virginia	ACC	1.61	1.61	51.72	50.14	0.06	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	1.59	1.59	46.43	46.43	-0.11	-0.11
Hampton	MEAC	1.59	1.59	46.67	46.00	-0.11	-0.13
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.59	1.59	30.00	30.00	-0.64	-0.64
Davidson	SC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	1.56	1.56	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
South Carolina	SEC	1.56	1.56	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
Gonzaga	WCC	0.18	0.18	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.15	0.15	75.86	75.54	0.08	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.15	0.15	75.86	75.97	0.08	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.13	0.15	83.87	84.24	0.08	0.10
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.00	59.43	0.03	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.36	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.13	0.12	83.87	84.00	0.08	0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.42	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	83.33	82.83	0.07	0.07
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.10	0.10	68.75	67.65	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	46.67	45.83	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	36.67	35.81	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	86.21	86.21	0.07	0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	53.66	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.21	0.04	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	77.42	76.92	0.06	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.13	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.00	68.99	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	93.55	93.22	0.09	0.09
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.33	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.58	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	73.33	72.98	0.04	0.04
Washington	P10	0.08	0.08	70.97	71.33	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.08	0.08	87.50	87.50	0.06	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	26.48	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.42	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.05	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	ind	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Columbia	Ivy	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.08	0.07	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.08	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.07	56.25	55.27	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.07	21.88	21.88	-0.04	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	ind	0.08	0.07	31.82	31.82	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	74.07	74.07	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.07	73.53	73.54	0.02	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	48.28	47.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	57.14	56.84	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	76.67	75.56	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	86.67	86.62	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	73.33	71.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	47.42	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	87.50	87.50	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.80	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.05	45.16	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	24.00	24.00	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.42	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	18.52	18.52	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.00	55.71	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00