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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:247.1
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:68
Current SOS:72
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:6-25
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-4
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21199.00.15%
9-22211.41.22%
8-23222.97.70%
7-24236.625.97%
6-25250.441.12%
5-26262.823.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Troy (305.3)SBH77-82L0%0.0
11-16NJIT (192.1)ASunH57-60L0%0.0
11-19George Washington (52.7)A10H67-73L0%0.0
11-21Boston University (199.1)PatH66-78L0%0.0
11-24Albany (97.0)AEH63-61W100%0.0
11-27Kentucky (26.3)SECN63-84L0%0.0
11-29Savannah St. (337.2)MEACH67-57W100%0.0
12-3Delaware (274.5)CAAA67-58L0%0.0
12-5South Carolina (56.3)SECA81-63L0%0.0
12-13North Carolina St. (113.5)ACCH46-65L0%0.0
12-16Jacksonville (250.3)ASunH88-75W100%0.0
12-19UAB (93.6)CUSAH68-79L0%0.0
12-22Seton Hall (53.8)BEA66-49L0%0.0
12-30Houston (99.4)AmerH67-73L0%0.0
1-2SMU (12.3)AmerA72-58L0%0.0
1-6UCF (189.0)AmerA75-64L0%0.0
1-10Cincinnati (42.5)AmerH51-54L0%0.0
1-12Tulane (239.1)AmerH70-81L0%0.0
1-16Memphis (126.0)AmerA71-56L0%0.0
1-20UCF (189.0)AmerH54-64L0%0.0
1-23Houston (99.4)AmerA62-71W100%0.0
1-27Tulane (239.1)AmerA60-73W100%0.0
1-31Temple (91.3)AmerH63-70L0%0.0
2-4Cincinnati (42.5)AmerA88-57L0%0.0
2-7SMU (12.3)AmerH0-05%-17.6
2-14Temple (91.3)AmerA0-011%-13.5
2-16East Carolina (188.4)AmerA0-025%-7.4
2-20Memphis (126.0)AmerH0-021%-8.9
2-25Connecticut (38.7)AmerH0-07%-15.9
3-2East Carolina (188.4)AmerH0-047%-0.8
3-5Tulsa (73.8)AmerA0-07%-15.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.5226.2618.2517.60-16.84-17.02
MemphisAmer2.514.0257.1456.410.360.52
East CarolinaAmer0.504.0045.4540.46-0.05-0.76
TempleAmer2.504.0060.0055.830.500.47
CincinnatiAmer4.594.0071.4371.231.971.70
UCFAmer4.403.9950.0043.260.00-0.54
TulaneAmer4.553.9731.8231.20-1.66-1.49
HoustonAmer4.493.9775.0069.292.251.53
SMUAmer2.653.9690.0084.712.122.75
TulsaAmer0.612.4963.6458.830.170.44
ConnecticutAmer0.612.4672.7371.760.281.07
NJITASun2.271.7550.0052.890.000.10
George WashingtonA102.331.7576.1970.721.220.72
KentuckySEC2.221.7271.4368.680.950.64
South CarolinaSEC2.131.7285.0075.201.490.87
AlbanyAE2.221.6977.2777.601.210.93
Boston UniversityPat2.221.6950.0052.830.000.10
JacksonvilleASun2.131.6750.0049.700.00-0.01
Seton HallBE2.181.6771.4367.550.940.58
DelawareCAA2.131.6719.0520.91-1.32-0.97
TroySB2.181.6715.7921.04-1.49-0.97
UABCUSA2.141.6480.9577.571.320.90
North Carolina St.ACC2.081.6150.0047.650.00-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC2.081.6133.3334.85-0.69-0.49
StetsonASun0.200.2225.0029.75-0.10-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.140.1923.8125.03-0.07-0.10
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1623.8128.31-0.05-0.07
New HampshireAE0.140.1652.6351.510.010.00
MississippiSEC0.240.1663.6456.050.070.02
ButlerBE0.140.1668.1866.490.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.1610.0015.28-0.15-0.11
Southern MissCUSA0.190.1633.3333.64-0.06-0.05
LSUSEC0.190.1663.6459.440.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.180.1686.3680.660.130.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1521.0523.70-0.12-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.1447.6252.96-0.000.01
LipscombASun0.190.1421.7427.64-0.11-0.06
Appalachian St.SB0.190.1427.2730.43-0.09-0.05
MissouriSEC0.200.1436.3630.98-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.140.1486.3685.330.100.10
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1390.0086.120.080.10
UMass LowellAE0.140.1333.3332.88-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1342.8641.75-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1350.0048.260.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.210.1228.5734.73-0.09-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1226.3236.93-0.07-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1245.0049.60-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1222.7324.28-0.05-0.06
North FloridaASun0.090.1268.1869.350.030.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1126.0930.33-0.05-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1110.0014.87-0.12-0.08
UNC GreensboroSC0.200.1130.0033.57-0.08-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.200.1138.1047.51-0.05-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1140.0044.95-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.1168.1867.800.020.04
MassachusettsA100.200.1142.8639.84-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.190.1147.8348.69-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.140.1127.2724.41-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.140.1172.2273.760.060.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.1161.9059.930.010.02
DavidsonA100.150.1157.8955.400.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.1169.5768.670.020.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1175.0071.280.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1165.0068.750.030.04
LafayettePat0.140.1123.8125.26-0.07-0.05
DePaulBE0.140.1136.3634.95-0.04-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1160.0056.080.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.150.1157.1452.310.020.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.114.7614.01-0.16-0.08
XavierBE0.140.1190.9184.430.110.07
MichiganB100.090.1172.7367.980.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.1016.6720.71-0.03-0.06
Ohio St.B100.090.1058.3354.120.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.130.1063.1666.150.040.03
VCUA100.090.1077.2776.780.050.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0945.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.0936.8437.30-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.100.0860.0061.350.020.02
UtahP120.100.0872.7368.550.050.03
MaristMAAC0.140.0819.0521.40-0.09-0.05
NavyPat0.140.0865.2265.230.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0821.0529.16-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0814.2918.63-0.04-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.100.0861.1158.300.020.01
HofstraCAA0.100.0868.1865.420.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.140.0868.1863.250.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.100.0835.0034.93-0.03-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0870.0069.360.040.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.0852.3853.820.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0866.6761.680.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0878.2671.960.050.04
Stony BrookAE0.090.0880.0082.460.050.05
UMBCAE0.140.0820.8325.01-0.08-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0822.7326.19-0.05-0.04
ColgatePat0.090.0842.8643.53-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0840.9139.70-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.090.0854.5556.020.010.01
AuburnSEC0.140.0842.8637.19-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0852.3856.770.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0856.5253.460.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0877.2776.130.000.04
La SalleA100.050.0821.0520.91-0.03-0.05
MaineAE0.050.0836.3635.58-0.01-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.140.0854.5555.990.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0881.8277.440.030.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0836.3642.19-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0875.0072.220.020.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0868.7574.730.050.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0859.0962.730.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.140.0825.0029.91-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.090.0872.7369.920.040.03
Georgia TechACC0.130.0854.5552.750.010.00
IUPUISum0.090.0841.6740.25-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0626.0925.56-0.05-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0665.0064.310.030.02
DetroitHorz0.100.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0654.5553.020.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.065.267.22-0.09-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.920.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.0628.5728.88-0.04-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0641.1840.28-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0663.6457.330.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.0672.7371.670.050.02
BradleyMVC0.090.058.709.77-0.08-0.04
IonaMAAC0.050.0559.0959.680.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.0530.0029.46-0.04-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0534.7841.59-0.03-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0547.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0531.8226.61-0.02-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0531.8232.71-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0533.3331.83-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0572.7366.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0560.8759.050.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0538.1042.99-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0542.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0581.8281.010.060.03
HartfordAE0.050.0526.0926.47-0.02-0.03
LehighPat0.090.0530.0036.08-0.04-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0531.8234.36-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0565.2256.530.030.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0547.8350.56-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.0068.920.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0526.0927.81-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0547.6252.92-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0540.9143.01-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0535.2934.69-0.01-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0538.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0547.3750.51-0.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0552.6347.690.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0545.4537.84-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0515.0015.65-0.07-0.04
VermontAE0.050.0556.5258.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0547.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0576.1979.640.020.03
WisconsinB100.050.0560.8755.900.010.01
WyomingMWC0.090.0540.9140.46-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0054.850.000.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0563.6462.340.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0552.1747.620.00-0.00
RutgersB100.090.0522.7320.68-0.05-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0538.1041.92-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0581.8281.010.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.090.0552.1747.250.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0535.2944.50-0.03-0.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0552.1750.240.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0521.7424.60-0.05-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0555.0048.870.01-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0563.6461.810.000.01
DrakeMVC0.090.0522.7324.85-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0566.6758.760.020.01
George MasonA100.050.0536.3635.33-0.01-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0572.7368.840.040.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0531.8232.92-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.090.0581.8277.490.060.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.0043.19-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0571.4370.600.040.02
NebraskaB100.090.0552.1751.560.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0529.4138.47-0.04-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0590.4884.890.040.04
RichmondA100.050.0552.3853.680.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0525.0029.52-0.05-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0571.4370.810.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0514.2916.31-0.03-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0510.5325.37-0.07-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0566.6762.710.000.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0581.8276.020.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0545.4542.14-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0376.1967.350.030.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0315.7922.51-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0340.0042.53-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0056.540.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.84-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.210.030.02
IPFWSum0.050.0373.9170.210.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0357.1457.940.010.00
SamfordSC0.050.0340.9143.37-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0341.6743.85-0.01-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0316.6724.27-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0333.3332.01-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0336.8441.45-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0347.8344.51-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0354.5555.310.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0342.8651.33-0.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0340.9138.03-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0325.0025.48-0.02-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.035.2610.18-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0360.0057.960.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.950.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0360.0054.590.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0325.0028.19-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.0042.81-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0366.6767.290.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0350.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.97-0.03-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0361.9063.360.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0313.6413.80-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0385.7181.220.030.02
FordhamA100.050.0357.8954.300.010.00
FurmanSC0.000.0354.5553.780.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0357.8961.480.010.01
KansasB120.050.0380.9577.000.030.01
MarylandB100.000.0386.9681.770.000.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0380.9575.640.030.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0368.1863.720.000.01
Penn St.B100.050.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0380.0070.290.030.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0331.8235.16-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0370.0069.070.000.01
TexasB120.000.0368.1861.780.000.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.370.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.5555.190.000.00