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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:203.2
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:95
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-763.50.08%
20-883.90.40%
19-996.40.93%
18-10113.32.22%
17-11131.64.89%
16-12149.38.58%
15-13168.613.46%
14-14189.017.20%
13-15210.117.51%
12-16231.914.03%
11-17252.910.12%
10-18272.95.78%
9-19290.83.14%
8-20305.31.24%
7-21317.80.33%
6-22324.80.05%
5-23334.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Idaho (219.7)BSkyH78-67W100%0.0
11-26Iowa (43.7)B10A70-49L0%0.0
11-30Maine (326.8)AEH0-089%15.0
12-2DePaul (222.3)BEA0-042%-2.5
12-13Eastern Illinois (263.1)OVCA0-049%-0.3
12-16Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACH0-096%20.4
12-19Dartmouth (273.0)IvyA0-053%0.9
12-22Notre Dame (62.8)ACCA0-06%-19.1
12-29Hampton (268.8)MEACH0-073%7.5
1-2UC Riverside (313.5)BWH0-082%11.2
1-7Ohio (130.1)MACA0-028%-6.8
1-10Kent St. (92.1)MACH0-039%-3.3
1-14Buffalo (66.7)MACA0-020%-10.2
1-17Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACA0-032%-5.5
1-21Akron (98.1)MACH0-039%-3.4
1-24Miami OH (284.8)MACH0-079%9.9
1-27Bowling Green (110.3)MACA0-025%-8.2
1-31Toledo (97.1)MACH0-039%-3.4
2-4Miami OH (284.8)MACA0-059%2.7
2-7Bowling Green (110.3)MACH0-047%-1.0
2-10Ball St. (177.2)MACH0-058%2.3
2-14Western Michigan (149.2)MACA0-031%-6.1
2-18Central Michigan (161.4)MACA0-032%-5.5
2-21Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACH0-055%1.6
2-24Toledo (97.1)MACA0-019%-10.6
2-28Central Michigan (161.4)MACH0-055%1.6
3-3Western Michigan (149.2)MACH0-054%1.1
3-6Ball St. (177.2)MACA0-034%-4.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC31.2526.3350.0047.320.00-1.41
Ball St.MAC0.004.4733.3345.93-0.00-0.36
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.43100.0052.240.000.20
Central MichiganMAC0.004.42100.0055.300.000.47
ToledoMAC0.004.4140.0059.72-0.000.86
Western MichiganMAC0.004.3950.0047.290.00-0.24
Miami OHMAC0.004.3440.0026.41-0.00-2.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.33100.0059.670.000.84
BuffaloMAC0.002.6875.0064.030.000.75
OhioMAC0.002.6766.6751.540.000.08
AkronMAC0.002.6760.0066.870.000.90
Kent St.MAC0.002.6675.0066.420.000.87
MaineAE0.001.890.0020.18-0.00-1.13
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.850.0035.27-0.00-0.54
DartmouthIvy0.001.820.0036.26-0.00-0.50
IowaB1025.001.8260.0064.065.000.51
HamptonMEAC2.081.8116.6746.02-1.39-0.14
DePaulBE0.001.7966.6724.330.00-0.92
IdahoBSky25.001.7950.0050.740.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.790.0015.84-0.00-1.22
Notre DameACC0.001.7983.3368.270.000.65
UC RiversideBW0.001.790.0024.06-0.00-0.93
NorthwesternB100.000.2883.3338.760.00-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.000.2520.0022.33-0.00-0.14
OaklandHorz0.000.1916.6726.26-0.00-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1916.6732.00-0.00-0.07
DaytonA100.000.1975.0071.300.000.08
Chicago St.WAC0.000.180.0018.96-0.00-0.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1750.0040.660.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.17100.0052.620.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1625.0023.91-0.00-0.09
New HampshireAE0.000.1633.3346.25-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1625.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0028.02-0.00-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.150.0033.90-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.0020.98-0.00-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.140.0033.42-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1340.0054.55-0.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1325.0043.27-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1340.0046.34-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.130.0047.66-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.1220.0030.12-0.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1280.0074.350.000.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1225.0039.34-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0032.17-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0048.990.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.1280.0051.710.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1220.0050.32-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1260.0059.160.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.120.0023.09-0.00-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum2.080.1250.0047.410.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.120.0027.48-0.00-0.05
Ohio St.B100.000.12100.0074.590.000.06
DukeACC0.000.12100.0083.320.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1033.3348.21-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1060.0040.420.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0057.180.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0045.170.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0061.500.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0025.08-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum4.170.1033.3354.85-1.390.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1083.3384.390.000.07
UtahP120.000.1075.0073.700.000.05
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.060.000.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0067.79-0.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0052.070.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0920.0031.24-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0975.0056.110.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0980.0070.930.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.0942.8641.73-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6739.60-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0960.0041.750.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0950.0064.890.000.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0975.0069.010.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0016.54-0.00-0.06
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0071.410.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0063.120.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0966.6762.480.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.340.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.09100.0065.930.000.03
SyracuseACC2.080.0980.0067.951.250.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0940.0038.03-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0960.0035.980.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3347.83-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0087.590.000.07
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0720.0039.02-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0031.400.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0733.3367.57-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0780.0067.100.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3332.18-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0760.0050.240.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0766.6741.200.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0780.0075.550.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0725.0031.20-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0780.0074.820.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0023.57-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0733.3351.33-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0020.51-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.00-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0725.0052.78-0.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0028.400.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0675.0069.240.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3334.34-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0640.0037.90-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3337.74-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0065.610.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6773.130.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0671.4356.020.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0640.0030.22-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0680.0046.880.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.060.0023.53-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3366.19-0.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3364.43-0.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0640.0045.07-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0026.73-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.340.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0620.0031.46-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0039.990.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.85-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0028.59-0.00-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.730.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0650.0042.750.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0620.0043.38-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.56-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0041.21-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0042.43-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0680.0056.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0078.880.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0036.05-0.00-0.02
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3335.76-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0050.620.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0675.0044.850.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0055.020.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0052.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0680.0074.090.000.03
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.290.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.400.000.02
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.390.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0062.000.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0057.070.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.530.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC4.170.0380.0063.472.500.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0072.320.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3351.25-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.90-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.000.0325.0022.65-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0030.50-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0023.72-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.280.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0054.380.000.00
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6751.540.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.590.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.460.000.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0044.60-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0056.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0340.0047.94-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0044.93-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0052.810.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0036.57-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0045.460.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3330.24-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0052.250.000.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0058.380.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0053.140.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0333.3338.66-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.97-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.310.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.830.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0036.14-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0340.0051.36-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
PepperdineWCC2.080.0366.6754.980.690.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.450.00-0.01
TexasB122.080.03100.0079.052.080.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.440.000.00