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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:141.2
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:192
Current Record:12-8
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:346



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-878.20.53%
18-993.34.69%
17-10111.816.69%
16-11132.529.93%
15-12152.929.14%
14-13172.114.81%
13-14191.23.76%
12-15209.30.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWH83-71W100%0.0
11-14South Dakota (191.9)SumH72-65W100%0.0
11-15Wright St. (157.6)HorzH65-59W100%0.0
11-28Idaho (219.4)BSkyA59-66W100%0.0
12-2Chicago St. (344.1)WACH80-58W100%0.0
12-4Missouri (221.1)SECA78-71L0%0.0
12-16Ohio St. (90.1)B10A67-54L0%0.0
12-19FIU (233.6)CUSAH78-75W100%0.0
12-29Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzA65-70W100%0.0
1-6Ohio (98.1)MACH80-69W100%0.0
1-9Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACH80-63W100%0.0
1-12Toledo (139.5)MACA66-71W100%0.0
1-16Western Michigan (217.6)MACA83-69L0%0.0
1-19Central Michigan (144.1)MACH75-70W100%0.0
1-22Toledo (139.5)MACH58-49W100%0.0
1-26Akron (33.3)MACA76-66L0%0.0
1-30Miami OH (216.8)MACA72-59L0%0.0
2-2Buffalo (92.4)MACH78-90L0%0.0
2-6Ohio (98.1)MACA80-69L0%0.0
2-9Kent St. (107.4)MACA75-74L0%0.0
2-13Akron (33.3)MACH0-038%-3.3
2-16Bowling Green (198.6)MACH0-074%7.0
2-20Ball St. (166.1)MACA0-041%-2.6
2-23Central Michigan (144.1)MACA0-034%-4.3
2-27Western Michigan (217.6)MACH0-070%5.6
3-1Eastern Michigan (144.0)MACA0-034%-4.6
3-4Ball St. (166.1)MACH0-065%4.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC26.3426.3163.1658.626.934.54
Ball St.MAC0.784.6060.8757.900.170.73
Central MichiganMAC3.014.5650.0050.620.000.06
ToledoMAC5.444.5466.6766.471.811.49
Western MichiganMAC3.004.5328.5730.29-1.29-1.79
Eastern MichiganMAC2.954.5242.1144.26-0.47-0.52
AkronMAC3.074.4781.8281.151.952.78
OhioMAC5.394.4665.0062.271.621.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.732.7750.0046.550.00-0.19
Miami OHMAC3.002.7731.8230.79-1.09-1.06
Kent St.MAC3.122.7463.6459.230.850.51
BuffaloMAC3.122.7454.5555.510.280.30
Wright St.Horz2.732.0559.0959.040.500.37
South DakotaSum2.611.9243.4842.70-0.34-0.28
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.611.9230.0029.61-1.04-0.78
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.551.925.267.49-2.29-1.63
Chicago St.WAC2.501.914.558.00-2.27-1.61
FIUCUSA2.501.8542.8646.92-0.36-0.11
IdahoBSky2.501.8557.1456.910.360.26
MissouriSEC2.501.8531.8228.01-0.91-0.81
Ohio St.B102.501.8558.3354.020.420.15
Cleveland St.Horz0.510.3821.7422.74-0.29-0.21
OaklandHorz0.340.3068.0067.980.120.11
DetroitHorz0.340.2947.6245.85-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.390.2954.5556.020.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.2630.4332.36-0.11-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.2359.0959.630.050.04
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2381.8283.040.150.15
Northern KentuckyHorz0.230.1933.3335.06-0.08-0.06
IllinoisB100.320.1945.8344.13-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1852.1754.170.010.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.1656.5256.320.030.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.270.1666.6767.700.090.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.220.1647.6252.05-0.010.01
IPFWSum0.220.1670.8368.550.090.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.280.1643.4842.66-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.220.1650.0051.210.000.00
IUPUISum0.110.1640.0039.81-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1382.6181.120.070.08
DePaulBE0.170.1333.3334.01-0.06-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1327.7829.16-0.08-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1314.2920.67-0.08-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.230.1345.8341.65-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.170.1350.0046.740.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.060.1380.0081.600.040.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1342.8650.39-0.020.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1371.4369.410.070.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1231.8236.14-0.06-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.220.1229.1733.12-0.09-0.04
NorthwesternB100.210.1264.0062.060.060.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1250.0053.100.000.01
North FloridaASun0.120.1065.2267.130.040.03
VermontAE0.120.1052.0054.860.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1025.0024.33-0.06-0.05
UC DavisBW0.120.1040.0036.76-0.02-0.03
UMKCWAC0.110.1028.5732.73-0.05-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.1065.0069.240.020.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1045.4546.24-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.120.1031.5837.70-0.04-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.120.1031.8229.12-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1052.3854.080.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1070.8369.490.050.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.1047.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1039.1341.10-0.03-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1042.1145.67-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.160.0926.0927.79-0.07-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0956.5257.280.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0922.7327.22-0.06-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.0950.0054.200.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.170.0971.4368.940.070.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.0924.0025.67-0.09-0.05
MercerSC0.110.0969.5769.020.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0956.5259.860.010.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0923.8126.56-0.06-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0927.7834.43-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.170.0925.0022.73-0.08-0.05
XavierBE0.160.0987.5081.810.120.06
LipscombASun0.110.0925.0029.30-0.05-0.04
KentuckySEC0.160.0975.0072.610.080.04
LouisvilleACC0.060.0779.1776.070.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.120.0754.5550.110.010.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0720.8323.21-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.060.0766.6769.490.020.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0730.0034.55-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0735.0032.27-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0784.2181.660.000.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0736.3638.92-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.120.0745.4551.34-0.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0717.6529.05-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0765.2268.600.020.02
SeattleWAC0.110.0747.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0745.4554.14-0.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0772.7371.650.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0714.2915.46-0.04-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0733.3334.95-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0771.4369.830.030.03
UCFAmer0.120.0750.0044.860.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.01
USCP120.120.0678.2673.050.070.03
Iowa St.B120.110.0673.9170.050.050.03
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.790.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.110.0669.5764.890.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0663.6462.150.010.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.04-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.14-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0628.5726.98-0.02-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.870.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0615.0015.34-0.08-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0672.2275.580.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0666.6762.650.040.02
TulsaAmer0.110.0665.2261.470.030.01
UABCUSA0.060.0682.6179.370.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.1973.420.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0652.1751.920.000.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.05
BinghamtonAE0.110.0620.8324.09-0.06-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.110.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.0656.5262.790.010.02
Kansas St.B120.110.0660.8758.300.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0671.4368.760.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0636.8442.89-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0612.5012.90-0.00-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0640.9143.54-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0652.0050.250.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0652.1751.910.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0622.7324.97-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.910.040.05
GeorgiaSEC0.110.0659.0955.300.020.01
MarylandB100.100.0687.5083.700.080.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.930.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.37-0.03-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.110.040.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2677.860.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0354.1750.940.010.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0328.5733.36-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.050.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.89-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0356.5253.270.010.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0390.4886.910.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0334.7840.91-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0372.0071.540.000.01
ElonCAA0.060.0352.1750.420.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.68-0.02-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.090.010.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0357.8962.320.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.67-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0341.6742.60-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0313.6415.77-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0323.8127.67-0.03-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0347.8350.19-0.000.00
TroySB0.060.0323.8126.71-0.03-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0324.0026.33-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3631.98-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.040.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.34-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.030.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0321.7424.19-0.03-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.280.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.630.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.910.040.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.110.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.540.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.460.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.650.020.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.970.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.44-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.250.010.00
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.350.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.22-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0373.9172.480.020.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.320.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.09-0.03-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.040.030.01
IowaB100.000.0382.6180.550.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0365.2260.260.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.820.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0369.5766.220.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.78-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0354.1751.880.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0380.0077.930.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.68-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0368.1871.320.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.030.02
VMISC0.050.0315.0016.72-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0360.8755.830.010.00
WoffordSC0.050.0343.4846.22-0.01-0.00