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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:217.0
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:174
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:245
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17217.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH66-68L0%0.0
11-15James Madison (233.0)CAAH55-60L0%0.0
11-16San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH60-59W100%0.0
11-17Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH69-82L0%0.0
11-30Nebraska (48.0)B10A63-58L0%0.0
12-5Dartmouth (266.0)IvyH64-57W100%0.0
12-14Massachusetts (23.0)A10A80-54L0%0.0
12-18Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA49-55W100%0.0
12-22UC Riverside (319.0)BWA64-71W100%0.0
12-31Iowa St. (7.0)B12A99-63L0%0.0
1-3Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH65-51W100%0.0
1-8Buffalo (106.0)MACA67-46L0%0.0
1-12Bowling Green (194.0)MACA36-45W100%0.0
1-15Kent St. (213.0)MACH64-73L0%0.0
1-18Ohio (87.0)MACH46-65L0%0.0
1-22Toledo (38.0)MACA77-68L0%0.0
1-25Buffalo (106.0)MACH67-75L0%0.0
1-29Kent St. (213.0)MACA49-50W100%0.0
2-1Ball St. (309.0)MACA65-67W100%0.0
2-4Miami OH (161.0)MACH53-41W100%0.0
2-9Western Michigan (66.0)MACH71-74L0%0.0
2-12Central Michigan (294.0)MACH88-63W100%0.0
2-15Akron (93.0)MACA62-54L0%0.0
2-20Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH61-59W100%0.0
2-23Central Michigan (294.0)MACA70-67L0%0.0
2-26Toledo (38.0)MACH74-66W100%0.0
3-1Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA56-52L0%0.0
3-4Western Michigan (66.0)MACA61-56L0%0.0
3-8Ball St. (309.0)MACH70-56W100%0.0
3-10Bowling Green (194.0)MACH54-51W100%0.0
3-12Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACN53-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC26.3526.3543.3643.36-3.50-3.50
Eastern MichiganMAC5.775.7755.1755.170.600.60
ToledoMAC4.154.1583.3383.332.772.77
Central MichiganMAC4.094.0925.9325.93-1.97-1.97
Western MichiganMAC4.074.0768.9768.971.541.54
Ball St.MAC4.064.0611.5411.54-3.13-3.13
Bowling GreenMAC4.014.0137.9337.93-0.97-0.97
BuffaloMAC4.014.0161.5461.540.930.93
Kent St.MAC3.973.9748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
AkronMAC2.592.5962.5062.500.650.65
OhioMAC2.572.5765.6265.620.800.80
Miami OHMAC2.532.5344.8344.83-0.26-0.26
MassachusettsA101.771.7774.1974.190.850.85
James MadisonCAA1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
MilwaukeeHorz1.691.6959.3859.380.320.32
San Jose St.MWC1.661.6617.8617.86-1.07-1.07
NebraskaB101.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.641.6417.2417.24-1.07-1.07
Iowa St.B121.641.6478.1278.120.920.92
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.641.6430.0030.00-0.65-0.65
DartmouthIvy1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Nebraska OmahaSum1.611.6146.1546.15-0.12-0.12
UC RiversideBW1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.3163.3363.330.080.08
DetroitHorz0.300.3036.6736.67-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
BradleyMVC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Green BayHorz0.150.1577.7877.780.080.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
CornellIvy0.110.113.703.70-0.11-0.11
PrincetonIvy0.110.1170.3770.370.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00