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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:241.0
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:249
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:273
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH80-78W100%0.0
11-16Idaho (209.0)BSkyH63-49W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA84-82L0%0.0
11-23Cal Poly (297.0)BWH64-68L0%0.0
11-25Elon (161.0)CAAH80-85L0%0.0
11-26Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH92-81W100%0.0
11-30Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA63-52L0%0.0
12-11Minnesota (20.0)B10A77-57L0%0.0
12-17FIU (338.0)CUSAA53-60W100%0.0
12-20South Florida (316.0)AmerA48-59W100%0.0
1-3Miami OH (302.0)MACA69-67L0%0.0
1-7Central Michigan (216.0)MACH87-83W100%0.0
1-10Kent St. (142.0)MACA70-74W100%0.0
1-14Bowling Green (225.0)MACA52-69W100%0.0
1-17Miami OH (302.0)MACH62-58W100%0.0
1-21Ohio (117.0)MACH69-78L0%0.0
1-24Kent St. (142.0)MACH66-73L0%0.0
1-28Toledo (155.0)MACA72-74W100%0.0
1-31Akron (58.0)MACH73-76L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH81-69W100%0.0
2-7Buffalo (146.0)MACA65-45L0%0.0
2-11Western Michigan (173.0)MACA76-67L0%0.0
2-14Ball St. (169.0)MACH72-81L0%0.0
2-18Toledo (155.0)MACH80-88L0%0.0
2-21Central Michigan (216.0)MACA66-89W100%0.0
2-25Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA84-68L0%0.0
2-28Western Michigan (173.0)MACH56-70L0%0.0
3-3Ball St. (169.0)MACA87-82L0%0.0
3-6Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA72-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC26.3826.3841.9641.96-4.24-4.24
Eastern MichiganMAC5.915.9138.4638.46-1.36-1.36
Ball St.MAC4.384.3860.0060.000.880.88
Western MichiganMAC4.344.3444.8344.83-0.45-0.45
ToledoMAC4.324.3250.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC4.314.3150.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC4.294.2962.5062.501.071.07
Miami OHMAC4.204.2028.5728.57-1.80-1.80
Indiana St.MVC3.503.5032.1432.14-1.25-1.25
AkronMAC2.762.7675.0075.001.381.38
OhioMAC2.672.6762.0762.070.640.64
Bowling GreenMAC2.582.5840.0040.00-0.52-0.52
BuffaloMAC2.582.5848.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Cal PolyBW1.841.8428.5728.57-0.79-0.79
ElonCAA1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.781.7843.3343.33-0.24-0.24
FIUCUSA1.751.7517.8617.86-1.13-1.13
South FloridaAmer1.751.7524.1424.14-0.91-0.91
IdahoBSky1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
MinnesotaB101.721.7271.8871.880.750.75
Green BayHorz0.280.2855.1755.170.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
Wright St.Horz0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.210.2140.6240.62-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
UC DavisBW0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.1784.3884.380.110.11
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
DelawareCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
HawaiiBW0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.120.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1218.5218.52-0.08-0.08
StanfordP120.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
UTSACUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1129.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Little RockSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
UCLAP120.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0944.4444.44-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00