Northern Illinois

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	337.4
Current RPI:	334
Expected SOS:	251
Current SOS:	203
Current Record:	1-18
Expected Record:	2-25
Current Conf Record:	1-8
Expected Conf Record:	2-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-12
Current OOC Record:	0-10
Expected OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC RPI:	341
Expected OOC SOS:	291

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-20	302.5	0.02%
6-21	307.0	0.02%
5-22	317.8	0.78%
4-23	327.4	4.79%
3-24	333.7	19.76%
2-25	338.0	39.63%
1-26	340.8	34.99%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Purdue (65.0)	B10	A	96-34	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	57-59	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Iowa (139.5)	B10	A	88-55	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Eastern Illinois (293.4)	OVC	H	55-67	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	71-57	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	A	58-47	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	62-55	L	0%	0.0
12-14	DePaul (187.2)	BE	H	52-75	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	H	49-62	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	48-59	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	H	40-47	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	A	77-68	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	H	74-66	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	A	71-41	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	H	65-75	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	90-56	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Buffalo (70.7)	MAC	H	59-74	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	H	58-67	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Bowling Green (155.1)	MAC	A	65-40	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	H	0-0		14%	-12.0
2-11	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	0-0		0%	-28.1
2-15	Western Michigan (174.1)	MAC	H	0-0		14%	-11.8
2-18	SIU Edwardsville (304.4)	OVC	A	0-0		22%	-8.2
2-22	Eastern Michigan (246.9)	MAC	A	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-26	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	A	0-0		9%	-14.7
2-29	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	H	0-0		21%	-8.7
3-2	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	A	0-0		3%	-20.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Illinois	MAC	26.16	26.19	3.23	6.08	-24.47	-23.00
Western Michigan	MAC	3.24	4.50	38.10	39.39	-0.77	-0.96
Eastern Michigan	MAC	3.14	4.47	38.10	34.45	-0.75	-1.39
Ball St.	MAC	3.01	4.47	52.63	54.27	0.16	0.38
Central Michigan	MAC	3.13	4.44	30.00	33.36	-1.25	-1.48
Toledo	MAC	3.08	4.44	35.00	37.21	-0.92	-1.14
Akron	MAC	0.56	2.53	68.18	66.82	0.20	0.85
Bowling Green	MAC	3.06	2.52	45.00	47.00	-0.31	-0.15
Ohio	MAC	3.01	2.49	80.95	76.41	1.87	1.32
Kent St.	MAC	3.01	2.49	70.00	67.95	1.20	0.89
Miami OH	MAC	0.50	2.49	30.00	32.21	-0.20	-0.89
Buffalo	MAC	3.00	2.49	66.67	65.16	1.00	0.75
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.93	2.20	26.32	27.37	-1.39	-1.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.93	2.08	54.55	56.22	0.27	0.26
Valparaiso	Horz	2.87	2.05	63.64	62.31	0.78	0.50
Purdue	B10	2.86	2.04	63.64	59.27	0.78	0.38
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	2.02	26.32	27.71	-0.09	-0.90
Southern Illinois	MVC	2.69	2.02	31.82	29.64	-0.98	-0.82
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.63	1.96	30.00	31.95	-1.05	-0.71
Iowa	B10	2.81	1.94	52.17	47.76	0.12	-0.09
DePaul	BE	2.69	1.88	47.62	40.86	-0.13	-0.34
Boise St.	MWC	2.69	1.88	40.00	38.95	-0.54	-0.42
Utah Valley	GWC	2.63	1.85	52.38	56.06	0.13	0.22
Chicago St.	GWC	0.36	0.33	4.76	9.95	-0.33	-0.26
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.37	0.33	19.05	21.29	-0.23	-0.19
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.44	0.33	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.43	0.32	41.67	40.61	-0.07	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.31	0.32	81.82	80.43	0.19	0.20
Detroit	Horz	0.43	0.32	47.83	49.03	-0.02	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.36	0.29	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.37	0.29	77.27	75.06	0.20	0.14
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.27	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.29	0.26	35.00	39.38	-0.09	-0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.31	0.26	34.78	35.50	-0.09	-0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.29	0.22	76.19	72.91	0.15	0.10
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.20	4.35	9.66	-0.17	-0.16
Indiana St.	MVC	0.25	0.20	56.52	54.22	0.03	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.23	0.19	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.29	0.18	69.57	61.31	0.11	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.18	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.17	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.18	0.16	19.05	24.61	-0.11	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.16	31.82	42.13	-0.07	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.24	0.16	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.23	0.16	62.50	61.50	0.06	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.18	0.16	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.15	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.15	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.14	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.13	76.19	70.73	0.10	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.13	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.13	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.13	72.73	64.43	0.03	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.12	86.96	85.46	0.08	0.09
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.08	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.06	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.12	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.11	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.00	0.11	60.87	59.76	0.00	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.11	100.00	94.55	0.13	0.09
Austin Peay	OVC	0.13	0.10	33.33	35.97	-0.04	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.10	25.00	28.52	-0.06	-0.04
Maine	AE	0.19	0.10	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.10	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.10	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.10	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.10	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.10	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.09	87.50	85.41	0.08	0.07
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.09	73.91	68.43	0.06	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.09	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.12	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.09	95.83	92.01	0.11	0.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.17	0.09	35.00	35.31	-0.05	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.07	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.09	72.73	66.81	0.05	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.07	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	41.31	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.12	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.06	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.13	0.07	21.74	24.58	-0.07	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.07	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.07	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.06	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.07	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.00	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.04	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.07	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.00	0.04	65.00	66.70	0.00	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.00	0.04	43.48	43.82	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.03	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.05	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.03	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.07	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.03	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.02	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.00	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.00	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.04	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.03	70.83	72.23	0.03	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.03	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Troy	SB	0.00	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.00	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.04	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.00	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.03	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.03	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.04	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.00	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01