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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:185.0
Current RPI:185
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:136
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16185.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Idaho (267.0)BSkyH78-67W100%0.0
11-26Iowa (43.0)B10A70-49L0%0.0
11-30Maine (339.0)AEH61-56W100%0.0
12-2DePaul (197.0)BEA78-67L0%0.0
12-13Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA59-55L0%0.0
12-16Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH71-64W100%0.0
12-19Dartmouth (186.0)IvyA58-55L0%0.0
12-22Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA91-66L0%0.0
12-29Hampton (251.0)MEACH83-51W100%0.0
1-2UC Riverside (234.0)BWH72-67W100%0.0
1-7Ohio (231.0)MACA60-70W100%0.0
1-10Kent St. (94.0)MACH65-67L0%0.0
1-14Buffalo (28.0)MACA82-63L0%0.0
1-17Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA54-46L0%0.0
1-21Akron (115.0)MACH64-61W100%0.0
1-24Miami OH (229.0)MACH55-60L0%0.0
1-27Bowling Green (109.0)MACA56-46L0%0.0
1-31Toledo (79.0)MACH69-80L0%0.0
2-4Miami OH (229.0)MACA67-69W100%0.0
2-7Bowling Green (109.0)MACH65-69L0%0.0
2-10Ball St. (284.0)MACH75-63W100%0.0
2-14Western Michigan (119.0)MACA69-65L0%0.0
2-18Central Michigan (70.0)MACA68-66L0%0.0
2-21Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH65-73L0%0.0
2-25Toledo (79.0)MACA82-84W100%0.0
2-28Central Michigan (70.0)MACH73-55W100%0.0
3-3Western Michigan (119.0)MACH65-63W100%0.0
3-6Ball St. (284.0)MACA67-71W100%0.0
3-9Akron (115.0)MACA76-52L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC26.2726.2744.7244.72-2.78-2.78
Eastern MichiganMAC4.404.4053.5753.570.310.31
ToledoMAC4.364.3661.2961.290.980.98
AkronMAC4.354.3559.3859.380.810.81
Ball St.MAC4.324.3222.2222.22-2.40-2.40
Western MichiganMAC4.314.3158.6258.620.740.74
Central MichiganMAC4.314.3173.0873.081.991.99
Bowling GreenMAC4.294.2964.2964.291.231.23
Miami OHMAC4.234.2337.9337.93-1.02-1.02
BuffaloMAC2.682.6870.9770.971.121.12
OhioMAC2.652.6534.4834.48-0.82-0.82
Kent St.MAC2.612.6163.3363.330.700.70
MaineAE1.821.8210.3410.34-1.44-1.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy1.751.7548.1548.15-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE1.751.7535.4835.48-0.51-0.51
HamptonMEAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB101.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
IdahoBSky1.721.7240.7440.74-0.32-0.32
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.721.7219.3519.35-1.06-1.06
Notre DameACC1.721.7284.8584.851.201.20
UC RiversideBW1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
NorthwesternB100.250.2546.8846.88-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.230.2328.1228.12-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1538.4638.46-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
DrakeMVC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Penn St.B100.140.1452.9452.940.010.01
UMBCAE0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.110.1156.0056.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
YaleIvy0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
CornellIvy0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
BryantNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00