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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:209.4
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:300
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-774.00.01%
20-882.60.05%
19-991.80.27%
18-10109.80.96%
17-11126.12.75%
16-12144.96.19%
15-13163.210.34%
14-14183.014.86%
13-15203.417.39%
12-16223.817.17%
11-17243.613.98%
10-18261.59.22%
9-19280.24.26%
8-20294.71.89%
7-21308.20.54%
6-22320.90.10%
4-24332.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH80-78W100%0.0
11-16Idaho (235.9)BSkyH63-49W100%0.0
11-19Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWA84-82L0%0.0
11-23Cal Poly (281.6)BWH64-68L0%0.0
11-25Elon (136.0)CAAH80-85L0%0.0
11-26Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzH92-81W100%0.0
11-30Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA63-52L0%0.0
12-11Minnesota (46.1)B10A0-010%-15.7
12-17FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-055%1.5
12-20South Florida (269.8)AmerA0-058%2.4
1-3Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-056%2.0
1-7Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-056%1.9
1-10Kent St. (205.9)MACA0-037%-4.0
1-14Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-043%-2.2
1-17Miami OH (271.3)MACH0-075%8.1
1-21Ohio (94.7)MACH0-043%-2.2
1-24Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-057%2.2
1-28Toledo (153.9)MACA0-036%-4.2
1-31Akron (74.5)MACH0-036%-4.4
2-4Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACH0-045%-1.5
2-7Buffalo (138.0)MACA0-035%-4.7
2-11Western Michigan (212.4)MACA0-044%-1.8
2-14Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-060%3.1
2-18Toledo (153.9)MACH0-056%1.9
2-21Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-036%-4.3
2-25Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-026%-7.7
2-28Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-064%4.4
3-3Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-040%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC30.4826.3631.0344.83-11.56-2.73
Ball St.MAC1.194.4450.0052.500.000.22
ToledoMAC0.004.4042.8650.12-0.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.004.4066.6756.540.000.58
Western MichiganMAC0.004.3716.6735.75-0.00-1.25
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.3650.0055.150.000.45
Kent St.MAC0.004.3150.0051.750.000.15
Miami OHMAC0.004.3150.0032.920.00-1.47
Indiana St.MVC14.293.6325.0046.57-7.14-0.25
AkronMAC0.002.6583.3370.040.001.06
OhioMAC0.002.6580.0068.720.000.99
Bowling GreenMAC0.002.6433.3343.17-0.00-0.36
BuffaloMAC0.002.6440.0050.40-0.000.02
Cal PolyBW8.331.9120.0033.55-5.00-0.63
ElonCAA8.331.9180.0056.535.000.25
Cal St. NorthridgeBW7.141.850.0041.10-7.14-0.33
Illinois ChicagoHorz8.331.8560.0052.091.670.08
FIUCUSA0.601.8216.6733.28-0.40-0.61
South FloridaAmer0.601.8266.6731.900.20-0.66
IdahoBSky7.141.7950.0052.830.000.10
MinnesotaB100.001.7985.7164.850.000.53
Green BayHorz0.000.2733.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.2471.4355.750.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.220.0019.51-0.00-0.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2116.6730.27-0.00-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2166.6754.420.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2133.3340.39-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.200.0039.35-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.1928.5747.72-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1850.0029.280.00-0.08
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1883.3377.170.000.10
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1885.7174.430.000.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1842.8637.60-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1885.7173.010.000.08
UC DavisBW0.000.1657.1448.410.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1650.0054.690.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1614.2928.66-0.00-0.07
DelawareCAA0.000.1540.0040.65-0.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1583.3359.600.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.1583.3378.430.000.09
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1550.0046.670.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1316.6730.02-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.000.1350.0050.940.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0033.43-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0033.44-0.00-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.1350.0062.460.000.03
StanfordP121.790.1375.0059.100.890.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0023.26-0.00-0.07
UTSACUSA1.190.1228.5728.46-0.51-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1242.8634.17-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0021.30-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0066.170.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.120.0028.15-0.00-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1275.0064.960.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1240.0057.49-0.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1250.0052.140.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.1283.3374.620.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.1225.0043.26-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1271.4386.030.000.09
William & MaryCAA0.000.1240.0055.44-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.22-0.00-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1228.5734.18-0.00-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.1257.1448.240.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1014.2929.81-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1014.2928.15-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1085.7155.550.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.1057.1469.300.000.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.1020.0054.94-0.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0058.980.000.02
Little RockSB0.710.0960.0057.900.140.01
UCLAP120.600.09100.0083.550.600.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3333.15-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.600.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.630.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.600.090.0017.30-0.60-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0950.0043.490.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0920.0034.39-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.30-0.00-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0957.1442.660.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0916.6727.03-0.00-0.04
North FloridaASun0.000.0914.2931.71-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0957.1447.220.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0942.8650.32-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0766.6751.460.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0720.0048.38-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0714.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0733.3348.73-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.710.0714.2937.52-0.51-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0766.6770.140.000.03
VermontAE0.000.0762.5071.630.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.710.0650.0058.600.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.710.0640.0037.44-0.14-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.600.0666.6751.090.200.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3338.76-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Iowa St.B121.190.0671.4368.970.510.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC1.190.0616.6734.31-0.79-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.560.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0657.1442.940.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.600.0371.4358.670.260.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.600.0360.0057.170.120.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.600.0366.6766.100.200.01
Washington St.P120.000.0350.0036.820.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.600.0357.1436.050.09-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0383.3363.610.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0360.0039.610.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.000.0316.6735.65-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0342.8640.94-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0383.3376.370.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.600.0383.3350.740.400.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3332.23-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0371.4356.050.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0385.7168.390.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0312.5048.98-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00