live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:259.7
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:324
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:280
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1199.50.02%
16-12123.10.11%
15-13141.00.38%
14-14162.01.28%
13-15185.44.04%
12-16207.67.98%
11-17230.914.63%
10-18251.818.86%
9-19271.619.88%
8-20288.216.13%
7-21301.810.41%
6-22312.24.78%
5-23320.71.20%
4-24327.50.29%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Idaho (199.7)BSkyH78-67W100%0.0
11-26Iowa (60.5)B10A70-49L0%0.0
11-30Maine (320.6)AEH61-56W100%0.0
12-2DePaul (200.9)BEA78-67L0%0.0
12-13Eastern Illinois (239.9)OVCA59-55L0%0.0
12-16Mississippi Valley St. (346.8)SWACH71-64W100%0.0
12-19Dartmouth (188.3)IvyA58-55L0%0.0
12-22Notre Dame (51.1)ACCA0-02%-23.9
12-29Hampton (238.3)MEACH0-063%4.0
1-2UC Riverside (252.5)BWH0-061%3.2
1-7Ohio (195.8)MACA0-026%-7.4
1-10Kent St. (135.0)MACH0-041%-2.7
1-14Buffalo (38.9)MACA0-07%-17.4
1-17Eastern Michigan (108.0)MACA0-012%-13.8
1-21Akron (148.3)MACH0-040%-3.0
1-24Miami OH (270.8)MACH0-066%4.8
1-27Bowling Green (95.6)MACA0-011%-14.3
1-31Toledo (91.5)MACH0-029%-6.6
2-4Miami OH (270.8)MACA0-037%-3.8
2-7Bowling Green (95.6)MACH0-031%-5.8
2-10Ball St. (226.7)MACH0-054%1.1
2-14Western Michigan (134.6)MACA0-016%-11.4
2-18Central Michigan (88.8)MACA0-09%-15.8
2-21Eastern Michigan (108.0)MACH0-033%-5.2
2-24Toledo (91.5)MACA0-010%-15.2
2-28Central Michigan (88.8)MACH0-027%-7.3
3-3Western Michigan (134.6)MACH0-040%-2.8
3-6Ball St. (226.7)MACA0-026%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC27.5026.3242.8630.01-3.93-10.52
Ball St.MAC0.364.4625.0035.36-0.18-1.31
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.4275.0065.230.001.35
Central MichiganMAC0.364.4185.7169.680.261.74
ToledoMAC0.004.4063.6460.160.000.89
Western MichiganMAC0.004.3955.5650.720.000.06
Miami OHMAC0.004.3330.0027.22-0.00-1.97
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.3275.0066.320.001.41
BuffaloMAC0.002.6777.7870.480.001.09
OhioMAC0.002.6742.8636.56-0.00-0.72
AkronMAC0.002.6660.0056.320.000.34
Kent St.MAC0.002.6677.7858.600.000.46
MaineAE7.501.8911.1123.20-5.83-1.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC7.141.8533.3340.68-2.38-0.34
DartmouthIvy7.501.8244.4446.23-0.83-0.14
IowaB107.141.8263.6457.811.950.28
HamptonMEAC0.301.8150.0052.250.000.08
DePaulBE7.141.7955.5631.990.79-0.64
IdahoBSky7.141.7942.8655.06-1.020.18
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC7.141.7910.0017.96-5.71-1.14
Notre DameACC0.001.7991.6775.880.000.92
UC RiversideBW0.001.7950.0042.910.00-0.25
NorthwesternB100.320.2863.6442.700.09-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.650.2520.0025.91-0.39-0.12
DaytonA100.000.1980.0069.340.000.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1918.1837.88-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1927.2732.26-0.00-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.360.180.0011.31-0.36-0.14
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1745.4543.17-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW1.160.1687.5067.460.870.06
DrakeMVC0.360.1618.1819.54-0.23-0.10
New HampshireAE0.360.1650.0060.240.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0013.95-0.00-0.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1540.0051.94-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.300.150.0026.25-0.30-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.009.03-0.00-0.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1312.5026.95-0.00-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3645.36-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1340.0046.04-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1336.3650.65-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1354.5557.750.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1320.0044.35-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.360.1241.6743.31-0.06-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1266.6766.950.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.450.1233.3343.26-0.15-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.740.000.02
HartfordAE0.360.1254.5553.240.030.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1233.3346.57-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0028.78-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1240.0047.83-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.120.0010.55-0.00-0.09
North Dakota St.Sum0.300.1250.0054.280.000.01
UMBCAE0.300.1218.1825.24-0.19-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1281.8282.150.000.08
DukeACC0.000.12100.0086.740.000.08
Missouri St.MVC0.360.1033.3337.25-0.12-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.1050.0042.750.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1037.5037.29-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.360.1030.0029.93-0.14-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.890.1070.0059.860.360.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1072.7372.880.000.04
UtahP120.000.1080.0080.490.000.06
MichiganB100.000.0950.0040.340.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.360.0977.7865.410.200.03
CreightonBE0.360.0969.2349.070.14-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.090.0014.49-0.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0918.1830.67-0.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.360.0981.8272.960.230.04
YaleIvy0.000.0966.6763.060.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0950.0046.480.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6735.21-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.360.0950.0050.260.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0940.0053.58-0.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.680.0950.0071.160.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0980.0073.040.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0914.2930.32-0.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.360.0972.7368.580.160.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0981.8263.950.000.03
IPFWSum0.360.0950.0054.440.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.360.090.0034.55-0.36-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.0991.6755.080.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.320.090.0023.75-0.32-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.0975.0057.450.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.360.0960.0038.770.07-0.02
SyracuseACC0.300.0960.0057.780.060.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0960.0038.340.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0930.0038.92-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0990.9188.760.000.07
BradleyMVC0.000.0730.0032.35-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0720.0029.06-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0763.6464.930.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0760.0076.800.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0711.1129.44-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0722.2247.34-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0720.0026.61-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0760.0064.830.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0766.6764.890.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0720.0034.83-0.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0737.5044.53-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.360.0650.0037.510.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0633.3338.71-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.360.0666.6765.780.120.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0034.38-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0637.5041.68-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3637.27-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0618.1822.91-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0666.6769.260.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0675.0063.910.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.450.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6456.310.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0670.0059.740.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.450.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.93-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.006.54-0.00-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.000.0640.0041.10-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0644.4448.17-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.62-0.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.800.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.40-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.450.0637.5031.93-0.11-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0637.5050.46-0.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0640.0054.66-0.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0636.3646.70-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0670.0059.760.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0630.0043.77-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.360.0618.1820.68-0.23-0.04
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0049.390.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0654.5559.550.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0688.8965.680.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0640.0055.83-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.420.000.04
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.050.000.02
Oregon St.P120.680.0670.0051.560.270.00
ElonCAA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.29-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.46-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.060.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0628.5761.90-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0642.8649.26-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0037.24-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0043.870.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0680.0053.820.000.00
IndianaB100.320.0681.8263.040.210.02
Iowa St.B120.300.0690.0065.820.240.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.50-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0680.0068.200.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.010.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.300.0672.7374.520.140.03
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.400.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.01-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0620.0053.25-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0672.7376.010.000.03
Boise St.MWC0.450.0377.7872.900.250.02
CincinnatiAmer0.360.0370.0064.920.140.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0068.830.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0377.7869.870.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.43-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0034.43-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.99-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0344.4449.08-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.280.000.00
Washington St.P120.450.0345.4530.45-0.04-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2914.63-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0316.6733.12-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0316.6736.42-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.65-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.360.0344.4443.16-0.04-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.590.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0363.6464.150.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0337.5035.77-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.360.0380.0067.350.210.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6757.910.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.84-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.360.0360.0061.400.070.01
KansasB120.000.0390.0071.080.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.70-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.360.0344.4455.25-0.040.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.360.0333.3344.93-0.12-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0375.0058.740.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.44-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.0330.0030.65-0.14-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0350.0053.920.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.26-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.2735.54-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0354.5545.090.00-0.00
StanfordP120.360.0366.6758.210.120.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0330.0040.39-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0363.6467.200.000.01
WagnerNEC0.360.0312.5031.01-0.27-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0360.0064.660.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2236.02-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.240.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0322.2236.55-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0354.5548.910.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.75-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6765.440.000.01
USCP120.000.0363.6440.160.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5656.250.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0337.5039.38-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.660.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0362.5041.050.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0084.350.000.02
MarylandB100.000.0391.6772.610.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5551.400.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.320.0344.4437.49-0.04-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0333.3340.88-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0320.0022.49-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.160.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0350.0057.910.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.320.0350.0041.130.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.300.0390.9183.170.240.02
PepperdineWCC0.300.0366.6755.760.100.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0370.0052.280.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.610.00-0.01
TCUB120.320.03100.0068.320.320.01
TexasB120.300.0390.9180.170.240.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.320.0333.3334.44-0.11-0.01
TulaneAmer0.320.0388.8956.070.250.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0089.960.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4537.63-0.00-0.01