Northern Illinois

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	333.0
Current RPI:	333
Expected SOS:	267
Current SOS:	267
Current Record:	4-25
Expected Record:	4-25
Current Conf Record:	3-14
Expected Conf Record:	3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-14
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	343
Expected OOC SOS:	301

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-25	333.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	77-64	L	0%
11-13	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	69-46	L	0%
11-24	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	46-53	L	0%
11-27	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	46-58	L	0%
12-1	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	60-43	L	0%
12-5	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	65-54	W	100%
12-7	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	80-73	L	0%
12-16	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	69-64	L	0%
12-19	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	75-48	L	0%
12-22	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	67-57	L	0%
12-29	Massachusetts (57.0)	A10	H	59-64	L	0%
1-9	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	A	61-72	W	100%
1-12	Akron (43.0)	MAC	H	53-68	L	0%
1-16	Ohio (67.0)	MAC	A	81-63	L	0%
1-19	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	H	34-71	L	0%
1-23	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	A	61-74	W	100%
1-26	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	42-25	L	0%
1-30	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	67-65	W	100%
2-2	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	64-69	L	0%
2-6	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	41-57	L	0%
2-9	Buffalo (215.0)	MAC	A	59-54	L	0%
2-13	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	H	52-56	L	0%
2-16	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	66-58	L	0%
2-23	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	47-59	L	0%
2-27	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	H	41-53	L	0%
3-2	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	H	50-69	L	0%
3-5	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	A	70-46	L	0%
3-9	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	53-51	L	0%
3-11	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	45-44	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Illinois	MAC	26.23	26.23	14.39	14.39	-18.68	-18.68
Eastern Michigan	MAC	5.97	5.97	35.71	35.71	-1.71	-1.71
Western Michigan	MAC	4.28	4.28	58.62	58.62	0.74	0.74
Toledo	MAC	4.21	4.21	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	4.16	4.16	32.14	32.14	-1.49	-1.49
Ball St.	MAC	4.16	4.16	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Miami OH	MAC	2.51	2.51	27.59	27.59	-1.12	-1.12
Buffalo	MAC	2.49	2.49	35.48	35.48	-0.72	-0.72
Ohio	MAC	2.43	2.43	71.88	71.88	1.06	1.06
Kent St.	MAC	2.43	2.43	61.29	61.29	0.55	0.55
Akron	MAC	2.37	2.37	80.00	80.00	1.42	1.42
Bowling Green	MAC	2.34	2.34	34.48	34.48	-0.73	-0.73
Illinois Chicago	Horz	2.07	2.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	2.06	2.06	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.94	1.94	17.24	17.24	-1.27	-1.27
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.94	1.94	33.33	33.33	-0.65	-0.65
Valparaiso	Horz	1.92	1.92	77.42	77.42	1.05	1.05
Massachusetts	A10	1.89	1.89	64.52	64.52	0.55	0.55
DePaul	BE	1.78	1.78	32.26	32.26	-0.63	-0.63
Dayton	A10	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.78	1.78	29.17	29.17	-0.74	-0.74
Washington	P12	1.75	1.75	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Seattle	WAC	1.75	1.75	21.43	21.43	-1.00	-1.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.72	1.72	32.14	32.14	-0.62	-0.62
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.46	0.46	37.93	37.93	-0.11	-0.11
Wright St.	Horz	0.39	0.39	62.50	62.50	0.10	0.10
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.37	0.37	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.34	0.34	60.00	60.00	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.31	0.31	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.29	0.29	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.26	0.26	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.25	0.25	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.21	0.21	71.43	71.43	0.09	0.09
IUPUI	Sum	0.20	0.20	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
Michigan	B10	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
Murray St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Temple	A10	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Texas St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Denver	WAC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.09	-0.09
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.08	0.08	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01