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Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:281.4
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:251
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:263



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14131.00.01%
15-15162.70.03%
14-16177.40.20%
13-17195.70.98%
12-18215.92.67%
11-19233.86.01%
10-20252.511.81%
9-21269.116.60%
8-22284.319.91%
7-23297.818.82%
6-24309.313.45%
5-25318.16.63%
4-26325.62.49%
3-27332.00.33%
2-28338.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southern Utah (339.7)BSkyH76-63W100%0.0
11-19Evansville (74.1)MVCH50-69L0%0.0
11-22Liberty (332.9)BSthH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern (171.8)B10N46-55L0%0.0
11-26Virginia Tech (224.2)ACCN63-78L0%0.0
11-30Elon (242.1)CAAH0-050%0.1
12-3Dayton (56.0)A10H0-012%-14.2
12-6IPFW (160.5)SumA0-013%-13.3
12-14Wright St. (125.0)HorzA0-012%-14.0
12-17Longwood (331.6)BSthH0-080%9.9
12-22Ohio St. (33.4)B10A0-01%-26.9
1-3UMKC (257.4)WACH0-050%-0.0
1-7Buffalo (70.3)MACH0-022%-9.1
1-10Eastern Michigan (155.5)MACH0-035%-4.6
1-14Central Michigan (164.0)MACA0-017%-11.7
1-17Buffalo (70.3)MACA0-09%-16.3
1-21Western Michigan (124.5)MACH0-029%-6.6
1-24Northern Illinois (202.4)MACA0-021%-9.8
1-27Toledo (100.5)MACA0-08%-16.7
1-31Ball St. (175.6)MACH0-037%-4.0
2-4Northern Illinois (202.4)MACH0-041%-2.6
2-7Kent St. (94.2)MACA0-08%-16.7
2-10Eastern Michigan (155.5)MACA0-016%-11.8
2-14Ohio (134.5)MACH0-032%-5.7
2-18Bowling Green (101.2)MACA0-010%-15.1
2-21Akron (99.4)MACA0-08%-16.7
2-24Kent St. (94.2)MACH0-021%-9.5
2-28Bowling Green (101.2)MACH0-026%-7.9
3-3Akron (99.4)MACH0-021%-9.5
3-6Ohio (134.5)MACA0-014%-12.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC30.3326.2926.0921.41-14.51-15.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.004.18100.0060.100.000.85
OhioMAC0.004.1566.6749.380.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.004.1175.0062.730.001.05
AkronMAC0.004.1060.0064.830.001.22
Eastern MichiganMAC0.004.10100.0050.660.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.004.1075.0064.700.001.20
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.0550.0045.550.00-0.36
Ball St.MAC0.002.5333.3345.50-0.00-0.23
Central MichiganMAC0.002.52100.0053.800.000.19
Western MichiganMAC0.002.5166.6752.820.000.14
ToledoMAC0.002.5040.0059.19-0.000.46
LongwoodBSth0.001.8220.0022.07-0.00-1.02
DaytonA100.001.7975.0070.560.000.74
NorthwesternB1010.001.7980.0037.576.00-0.44
Wright St.Horz0.001.7866.6755.710.000.20
EvansvilleMVC10.001.7666.6767.193.330.60
LibertyBSth11.001.7525.0030.14-5.50-0.70
Ohio St.B100.001.72100.0073.950.000.83
Virginia TechACC11.001.7050.0033.870.00-0.55
ElonCAA0.831.6940.0039.17-0.17-0.37
IPFWSum0.001.6766.6762.010.000.40
Southern UtahBSky10.001.670.0017.05-10.00-1.10
UMKCWAC0.001.6720.0042.02-0.00-0.27
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2750.0040.550.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.2066.6765.830.000.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1816.6731.72-0.00-0.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1816.6726.44-0.00-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1850.0047.310.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.1775.0052.090.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1720.0031.23-0.00-0.06
MichiganB100.000.1775.0066.610.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.1683.3348.410.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1566.6747.140.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1580.0076.610.000.08
DrakeMVC0.000.1525.0024.98-0.00-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1566.6753.550.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1533.3354.73-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.150.0022.89-0.00-0.08
RadfordBSth0.000.1525.0046.64-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.150.0027.64-0.00-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1525.0049.12-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1560.0058.400.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1550.0040.810.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1540.0046.02-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0018.95-0.00-0.09
James MadisonCAA0.000.1480.0046.930.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1475.0072.040.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.14100.0086.460.000.10
IUPUISum0.000.1240.0030.81-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1275.0055.290.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.120.0036.14-0.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1225.0026.31-0.00-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1250.0073.640.000.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1250.0049.570.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1225.0052.61-0.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.120.0028.63-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1233.3353.30-0.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1275.0069.280.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.120.0034.56-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1275.0043.690.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1140.0047.86-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1150.0032.470.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0032.51-0.00-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.11100.0049.260.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1120.0036.68-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.1183.3368.600.000.04
Northern IowaMVC1.830.11100.0077.901.830.06
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0079.800.000.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0050.040.000.00
MaineAE0.000.090.0019.27-0.00-0.06
IdahoBSky0.000.0933.3348.27-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0029.060.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0064.230.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0980.0066.690.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.090.0036.09-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB1.000.0950.0027.510.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0920.0050.03-0.000.00
DelawareCAA1.000.090.0019.74-1.00-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0940.0057.50-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC1.250.0975.0051.040.620.00
Green BayHorz1.250.0975.0077.520.620.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0920.0034.26-0.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0975.0055.980.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC1.000.0916.6739.87-0.67-0.02
North FloridaASun1.830.0940.0052.52-0.370.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0015.65-0.00-0.06
Notre DameACC0.000.0983.3369.220.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0966.6750.220.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0933.3330.11-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0027.68-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0850.0052.730.000.00
UMBCAE0.000.080.0027.57-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.000.08100.0083.600.000.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0820.0038.27-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.08100.0065.110.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0880.0057.110.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0060.810.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0640.0038.45-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0034.53-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0033.69-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0071.650.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0024.87-0.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3351.34-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0052.30-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.06100.0056.970.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0045.290.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0052.85-0.000.00
Kansas St.B121.250.0650.0046.630.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6726.420.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0616.6745.77-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.330.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0625.0044.18-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0024.69-0.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0625.0041.79-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0046.27-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0666.6751.210.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.42-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0640.0053.46-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0660.0068.220.000.02
KansasB120.000.0666.6759.280.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.41-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0071.940.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0044.95-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0680.0057.990.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.900.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.280.000.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.060.0022.97-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.61-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0642.8640.94-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0054.340.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.01-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.070.000.04
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.620.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0650.0044.930.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6749.610.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.18-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.370.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0051.520.000.00
USCP120.000.0650.0028.760.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0540.0038.08-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0580.0073.080.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0540.0038.71-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.05100.0079.150.000.03
MarylandB100.000.05100.0071.860.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0550.0055.290.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0575.0053.300.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0575.0067.420.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0525.0039.50-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0550.0024.520.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0580.0068.140.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0073.600.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.63-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.58-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0051.07-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0333.3345.71-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0333.3331.37-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0049.940.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0030.90-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0062.960.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.250.03100.0057.481.250.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0380.0074.900.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0333.3351.01-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0037.52-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0051.96-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3329.25-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.47-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0325.0033.19-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0042.970.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0020.69-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.530.000.02
UtahP120.000.0375.0073.450.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0340.0048.44-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0062.99-0.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0067.390.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC1.250.030.0023.00-1.25-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.660.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0062.480.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0320.0033.15-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.86-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3335.00-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC1.250.0350.0058.990.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.320.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0036.120.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.750.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0325.0053.31-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.010.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6761.870.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.350.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0064.050.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.260.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.83-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.830.0320.0038.01-0.50-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.82-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0071.480.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0050.770.000.00
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0039.02-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.830.030.0024.09-0.83-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.010.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.000.0314.2931.08-0.71-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3359.02-0.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0065.430.000.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.880.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0325.0034.11-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.030.0028.78-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0042.120.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0325.0036.44-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0366.6751.600.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0069.720.000.01