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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:302
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:197
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:305



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21302.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Wright St. (115.0)HorzA89-87L0%0.0
11-18Delaware (235.0)CAAH66-68L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH76-70W100%0.0
11-20Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH70-79L0%0.0
11-26Western Illinois (325.0)SumH81-72W100%0.0
11-30Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH78-76W100%0.0
12-3Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA87-71L0%0.0
12-6Missouri (257.0)SECA81-55L0%0.0
12-10IUPUI (218.0)SumH71-68W100%0.0
12-18UCF (68.0)AmerA80-73L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH66-58W100%0.0
1-3Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH69-67W100%0.0
1-7Toledo (155.0)MACA91-76L0%0.0
1-10Ball St. (169.0)MACA85-74L0%0.0
1-14Akron (58.0)MACH70-74L0%0.0
1-17Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA62-58L0%0.0
1-21Central Michigan (216.0)MACA101-92L0%0.0
1-24Buffalo (146.0)MACH75-74W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH57-74L0%0.0
1-31Bowling Green (225.0)MACA83-72L0%0.0
2-4Kent St. (142.0)MACH62-66L0%0.0
2-7Western Michigan (173.0)MACH55-72L0%0.0
2-11Central Michigan (216.0)MACH81-76W100%0.0
2-14Kent St. (142.0)MACA76-72L0%0.0
2-18Buffalo (146.0)MACA71-58L0%0.0
2-21Ohio (117.0)MACH62-79L0%0.0
2-25Bowling Green (225.0)MACH54-70L0%0.0
2-28Akron (58.0)MACA75-79W100%0.0
3-3Ohio (117.0)MACA69-55L0%0.0
3-6Western Michigan (173.0)MACA65-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2526.2524.6024.60-13.33-13.33
Kent St.MAC4.374.3759.3859.380.820.82
AkronMAC4.204.2077.4277.422.302.30
OhioMAC4.184.1860.7160.710.900.90
BuffaloMAC4.134.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC4.124.1244.8344.83-0.43-0.43
Central MichiganMAC4.114.1146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Bowling GreenMAC4.084.0834.4834.48-1.27-1.27
Northern IllinoisMAC4.064.0640.7440.74-0.75-0.75
Ball St.MAC2.622.6261.2961.290.590.59
ToledoMAC2.612.6148.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC2.612.6139.2939.29-0.56-0.56
Fort WayneSum1.851.8555.5655.560.210.21
IUPUISum1.851.8541.3841.38-0.32-0.32
Wright St.Horz1.821.8258.6258.620.310.31
Tennessee TechOVC1.811.8134.4834.48-0.56-0.56
Austin PeayOVC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Northern KentuckyHorz1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
Western IllinoisSum1.781.7824.0024.00-0.93-0.93
DelawareCAA1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
MissouriSEC1.671.6722.5822.58-0.91-0.91
UCFAmer1.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
South DakotaSum0.310.3164.5264.520.090.09
Green BayHorz0.300.3055.1755.170.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.270.2726.6726.67-0.12-0.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
DetroitHorz0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.246.906.90-0.21-0.21
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2229.4129.41-0.09-0.09
OaklandHorz0.220.2273.3373.330.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.2134.3834.38-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.2160.7160.710.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB100.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
BelmontOVC0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01