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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:161.0
Current RPI:161
Expected SOS:123
Current SOS:123
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:167
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17161.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA74-62L0%0.0
11-12Arizona St. (44.0)P12A90-54L0%0.0
11-20Xavier (47.0)BEA77-51L0%0.0
12-3IPFW (115.0)SumH94-87W100%0.0
12-7Evansville (214.0)MVCA78-65L0%0.0
12-15Wright St. (173.0)HorzH59-56W100%0.0
12-18UMKC (248.0)WACA69-55L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA64-79W100%0.0
12-29Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH67-65W100%0.0
1-4Massachusetts (23.0)A10A73-65L0%0.0
1-8Central Michigan (294.0)MACA70-77W100%0.0
1-11Western Michigan (66.0)MACH77-78L0%0.0
1-15Akron (93.0)MACA59-52L0%0.0
1-18Ball St. (309.0)MACA52-64W100%0.0
1-22Central Michigan (294.0)MACH86-80W100%0.0
1-25Bowling Green (194.0)MACA65-70W100%0.0
1-29Toledo (38.0)MACH70-83L0%0.0
2-1Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH65-61W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA53-41L0%0.0
2-8Ohio (87.0)MACA82-75L0%0.0
2-12Buffalo (106.0)MACH62-75L0%0.0
2-15Western Michigan (66.0)MACA68-57L0%0.0
2-19Kent St. (213.0)MACH63-75L0%0.0
2-23Bowling Green (194.0)MACH55-52W100%0.0
2-26Akron (93.0)MACH65-61W100%0.0
3-1Buffalo (106.0)MACA78-55L0%0.0
3-4Kent St. (213.0)MACA61-73W100%0.0
3-8Ohio (87.0)MACH76-82L0%0.0
3-10Kent St. (213.0)MACH71-64W100%0.0
3-12Ohio (87.0)MACN63-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.4026.4044.7044.70-2.80-2.80
OhioMAC5.925.9263.3363.331.581.58
Kent St.MAC5.785.7850.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC4.284.2864.5264.521.241.24
Bowling GreenMAC4.244.2437.9337.93-1.02-1.02
Western MichiganMAC4.174.1768.9768.971.581.58
BuffaloMAC4.164.1661.5461.540.960.96
Central MichiganMAC4.094.0929.6329.63-1.66-1.66
Eastern MichiganMAC2.672.6758.0658.060.430.43
Northern IllinoisMAC2.622.6243.3343.33-0.35-0.35
ToledoMAC2.582.5880.6580.651.581.58
Ball St.MAC2.582.5811.1111.11-2.01-2.01
EvansvilleMVC1.821.8236.6736.67-0.49-0.49
MassachusettsA101.801.8074.1974.190.870.87
Southern IllinoisMVC1.751.7541.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Wright St.Horz1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
XavierBE1.751.7561.2961.290.390.39
IPFWSum1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
Tennessee St.OVC1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
UMKCWAC1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Arizona St.P121.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Notre DameACC1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2963.3363.330.080.08
OaklandHorz0.230.2335.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
BradleyMVC0.220.2237.5037.50-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.160.16100.00100.000.160.16
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.2121.21-0.08-0.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.080.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
ButlerBE0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.060.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Oregon St.P120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
RichmondA100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01