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Through games of Feb 24, 2017.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:305.4
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:220
Current Record:8-18
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18253.60.31%
10-19273.77.38%
9-20303.250.12%
8-21313.942.19%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Wright St. (122.0)HorzA89-87L0%0.0
11-18Delaware (248.9)CAAH66-68L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (280.4)OVCH76-70W100%0.0
11-20Northern Kentucky (112.0)HorzH70-79L0%0.0
11-26Western Illinois (319.4)SumH81-72W100%0.0
11-30Grambling St. (331.7)SWACH78-76W100%0.0
12-3Fort Wayne (177.7)SumA87-71L0%0.0
12-6Missouri (251.1)SECA81-55L0%0.0
12-10IUPUI (223.0)SumH71-68W100%0.0
12-18UCF (91.6)AmerA80-73L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee Tech (256.7)OVCH66-58W100%0.0
1-3Northern Illinois (218.7)MACH69-67W100%0.0
1-7Toledo (153.3)MACA91-76L0%0.0
1-10Ball St. (185.0)MACA85-74L0%0.0
1-14Akron (53.5)MACH70-74L0%0.0
1-17Northern Illinois (218.7)MACA62-58L0%0.0
1-21Central Michigan (203.4)MACA101-92L0%0.0
1-24Buffalo (143.0)MACH75-74W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Michigan (176.4)MACH57-74L0%0.0
1-31Bowling Green (222.2)MACA83-72L0%0.0
2-4Kent St. (187.8)MACH62-66L0%0.0
2-7Western Michigan (188.2)MACH55-72L0%0.0
2-11Central Michigan (203.4)MACH81-76W100%0.0
2-14Kent St. (187.8)MACA76-72L0%0.0
2-18Buffalo (143.0)MACA71-58L0%0.0
2-21Ohio (102.1)MACH62-79L0%0.0
2-25Bowling Green (222.2)MACH0-052%0.5
2-28Akron (53.5)MACA0-08%-15.1
3-3Ohio (102.1)MACA0-07%-15.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2326.2722.6422.64-14.35-14.37
Kent St.MAC4.584.3052.0051.850.180.16
BuffaloMAC4.534.2948.0048.57-0.18-0.12
AkronMAC2.664.2777.7875.941.482.22
OhioMAC2.614.2366.6766.450.871.39
Central MichiganMAC4.574.2152.0049.980.18-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC2.584.2138.4637.79-0.59-1.03
Northern IllinoisMAC4.494.1547.8347.20-0.20-0.23
ToledoMAC2.762.6348.1549.66-0.10-0.02
Ball St.MAC2.692.5861.5459.950.620.51
Eastern MichiganMAC2.612.5734.7837.60-0.79-0.64
Western MichiganMAC2.582.5540.0041.69-0.52-0.42
IUPUISum2.151.9242.3142.63-0.33-0.28
Fort WayneSum2.111.9256.0056.900.250.26
Austin PeayOVC2.101.8830.7730.47-0.81-0.73
Tennessee TechOVC2.071.8737.0437.24-0.54-0.48
Wright St.Horz2.101.8759.2659.730.390.36
Western IllinoisSum2.031.8526.0925.85-0.97-0.89
Northern KentuckyHorz2.061.8462.9662.140.530.45
DelawareCAA1.991.7833.3332.56-0.66-0.62
Grambling St.SWAC1.991.7839.1341.64-0.43-0.30
MissouriSEC1.921.7223.0823.20-1.04-0.92
UCFAmer1.921.7262.9662.580.500.43
Green BayHorz0.350.3255.5656.580.040.04
South DakotaSum0.300.3164.2963.760.080.09
DetroitHorz0.280.2725.0024.68-0.14-0.14
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.2725.0026.70-0.14-0.12
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.244.005.35-0.20-0.21
Nebraska OmahaSum0.270.2351.8551.810.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2246.1546.97-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2124.1424.00-0.11-0.11
OaklandHorz0.210.2175.0075.170.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.210.2032.1431.92-0.07-0.07
DenverSum0.230.1957.1456.680.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.1965.3864.790.070.06
Oral RobertsSum0.230.1921.4321.43-0.13-0.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1942.8643.32-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1842.8642.33-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.180.1844.4444.54-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1642.8644.04-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.150.1548.0047.16-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1535.7135.66-0.05-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1514.2918.11-0.11-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1532.1433.01-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1525.9325.24-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1579.3178.670.080.08
IllinoisB100.180.1555.5655.030.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1551.8553.540.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1425.9326.04-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1214.8115.42-0.10-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1246.4346.32-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.110.1253.5754.770.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.1275.0071.890.070.05
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1246.1546.92-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1222.2224.26-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.140.1257.1457.140.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1282.1482.160.090.08
NortheasternCAA0.140.1251.7250.580.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.140.1250.0050.280.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1242.8643.65-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.1189.2987.810.050.09
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1130.0030.54-0.06-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.140.1162.9663.430.040.03
CreightonBE0.110.1177.7875.390.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.110.0911.5411.61-0.09-0.07
Georgia TechACC0.070.0955.5652.760.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0963.3362.800.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0958.3359.280.010.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0960.7160.450.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0928.0028.90-0.03-0.04
BelmontOVC0.100.0980.0079.920.060.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0950.0049.420.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.0957.6956.380.020.01
AmericanPat0.070.0925.0025.07-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.110.0953.5750.740.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.110.0927.5928.31-0.05-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0946.4343.88-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.110.0944.4443.90-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.0972.4172.930.050.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0946.1546.91-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.110.0959.2657.880.020.01
XavierBE0.110.0964.2964.300.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0830.7733.73-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0682.1481.640.050.04
IndianaB100.070.0653.5752.880.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0652.1749.970.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.040.0634.4836.16-0.01-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.080.0628.0030.82-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0641.6741.96-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0615.3815.92-0.05-0.04
IdahoBSky0.080.0650.0051.340.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0637.5042.40-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0675.0073.550.040.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0630.7734.72-0.03-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0659.2662.740.010.02
SMUAmer0.070.0685.7185.560.050.04
StetsonASun0.070.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0611.5412.95-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.070.0627.5927.07-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.070.0644.8345.02-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0662.0761.420.020.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0634.4834.78-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0675.0077.130.030.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0651.8552.290.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0689.6688.770.060.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0657.1457.070.010.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0660.7159.640.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0656.6756.420.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0650.0049.260.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0662.9661.410.020.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0670.3769.140.030.02
Little RockSB0.070.0644.0043.40-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0617.2417.48-0.05-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0664.2962.790.020.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0660.7159.880.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0651.8550.690.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0646.1546.04-0.01-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0644.0045.05-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0678.5778.290.040.03
NJITASun0.070.0632.1432.14-0.03-0.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0613.7913.43-0.05-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.070.0628.5728.29-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0640.0040.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0650.0046.840.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.070.0648.2850.62-0.000.00
TexasB120.070.0635.7134.82-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0651.8551.680.000.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0618.5218.47-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0648.1548.19-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.040.0646.1546.47-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0658.3359.070.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0634.6233.54-0.01-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0657.6955.370.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.06100.0099.870.030.06
MercerSC0.030.0640.7440.79-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0685.1985.440.050.04
RadfordBSth0.030.0640.7440.82-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0651.8554.460.000.00
Kansas St.B120.040.0360.7159.900.010.01
PurdueB100.040.0382.1480.800.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.040.0351.8551.860.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0339.2940.09-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0375.0074.380.020.02
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0382.7682.940.030.02
DaytonA100.040.0381.4880.730.020.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0319.2321.45-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0320.0021.72-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0370.3770.850.020.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0362.9661.410.010.01
MichiganB100.040.0364.2963.110.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.37-0.04-0.03
NorthwesternB100.040.0371.4368.340.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0360.7160.840.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0333.3334.36-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0326.9226.40-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.620.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0364.0064.920.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0370.8371.960.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.0327.5928.23-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.9327.42-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0365.3867.150.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0364.2964.510.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0059.410.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0353.8554.870.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0326.6726.21-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0360.7158.900.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0363.6465.040.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0048.670.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.9661.770.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0348.2848.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.040.0389.2988.410.030.02
UTEPCUSA0.040.0342.3143.40-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.54-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0378.5777.800.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0356.5258.980.000.01
ArizonaP120.040.0389.6688.290.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0320.0022.20-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.040.0351.8551.260.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0353.5752.610.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0355.5656.820.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.770.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.040.0315.3815.99-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.040.0333.3331.77-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0346.4346.16-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.5036.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0327.2728.62-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0350.0051.610.000.00
Saint LouisA100.040.0332.1431.01-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0341.6739.81-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0370.3770.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0353.5751.910.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0348.1548.29-0.00-0.00