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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:219.2
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:129
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.12%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:321
Expected OOC SOS:299



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17212.046.04%
12-18225.553.96%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southern Utah (302.8)BSkyH76-63W100%0.0
11-19Evansville (107.7)MVCH50-69L0%0.0
11-22Liberty (347.1)BSthH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern (112.9)B10N46-55L0%0.0
11-26Virginia Tech (229.2)ACCN63-78L0%0.0
11-30Elon (262.8)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-3Dayton (28.9)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-6IPFW (209.4)SumA86-78L0%0.0
12-14Wright St. (264.2)HorzA68-59L0%0.0
12-17Longwood (325.8)BSthH71-60W100%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (34.2)B10A93-55L0%0.0
1-3UMKC (279.6)WACH66-61W100%0.0
1-7Buffalo (35.1)MACH72-79L0%0.0
1-10Eastern Michigan (162.2)MACH82-81W100%0.0
1-14Central Michigan (71.2)MACA105-77L0%0.0
1-17Buffalo (35.1)MACA77-68L0%0.0
1-21Western Michigan (115.7)MACH58-69L0%0.0
1-24Northern Illinois (192.3)MACA55-60W100%0.0
1-27Toledo (74.4)MACA70-65L0%0.0
1-31Ball St. (275.5)MACH79-73W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (192.3)MACH67-69L0%0.0
2-7Kent St. (91.5)MACA61-60L0%0.0
2-10Eastern Michigan (162.2)MACA83-69L0%0.0
2-14Ohio (236.2)MACH77-66W100%0.0
2-18Bowling Green (91.6)MACA56-67W100%0.0
2-21Akron (136.4)MACA52-57W100%0.0
2-24Kent St. (91.5)MACH86-81W100%0.0
2-28Bowling Green (91.6)MACH57-62L0%0.0
3-3Akron (136.4)MACH70-63W100%0.0
3-6Ohio (236.2)MACA0-046%-1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2626.2736.6437.72-7.02-6.45
Bowling GreenMAC4.224.1772.0070.191.861.68
OhioMAC2.604.1533.3333.33-0.87-1.38
BuffaloMAC4.134.0966.6766.961.381.39
Kent St.MAC4.134.0866.6766.491.381.35
Eastern MichiganMAC4.164.0854.1753.870.350.32
AkronMAC4.134.0862.9662.081.070.99
Northern IllinoisMAC4.144.0344.0044.24-0.50-0.47
Ball St.MAC2.532.5123.0824.07-1.36-1.30
Western MichiganMAC2.562.5155.5655.140.280.26
Central MichiganMAC2.532.5075.0074.251.261.21
ToledoMAC2.502.4962.0761.770.600.59
LongwoodBSth1.881.8227.5927.59-0.84-0.81
DaytonA101.851.7978.5777.961.061.00
NorthwesternB101.851.7848.2847.05-0.06-0.11
Wright St.Horz1.851.7828.5728.57-0.79-0.76
EvansvilleMVC1.781.7560.7160.710.380.38
LibertyBSth1.811.7514.8114.81-1.27-1.23
Ohio St.B101.781.7272.4171.660.800.75
Virginia TechACC1.751.7031.0330.85-0.67-0.65
ElonCAA1.751.6939.2939.29-0.38-0.36
IPFWSum1.721.6748.0048.00-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky1.721.6732.0032.88-0.62-0.57
UMKCWAC1.721.6740.7441.56-0.32-0.28
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.2627.5927.59-0.13-0.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.10
IowaB100.180.1966.6767.370.060.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.190.1866.6766.670.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1735.4836.32-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.190.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.180.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
MichiganB100.180.1746.4347.82-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.150.1757.1458.000.020.03
Penn St.B100.170.1650.0049.040.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1567.8667.860.060.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1522.2222.87-0.09-0.08
DrakeMVC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1550.0050.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1457.1457.140.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1418.5217.90-0.10-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1453.5753.570.010.01
DetroitHorz0.150.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1461.5461.540.030.03
BelmontOVC0.120.1464.2964.290.030.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1428.0029.85-0.07-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1457.1457.140.020.02
Michigan St.B100.150.1466.6766.280.050.05
RadfordBSth0.150.1464.2964.290.040.04
James MadisonCAA0.150.1461.2961.290.030.03
WisconsinB100.120.1489.6688.010.090.10
IUPUISum0.130.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1224.0024.00-0.07-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.130.1246.1547.13-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1282.1482.140.080.08
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.090.1240.0039.63-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1265.3865.380.040.04
WinthropBSth0.120.1253.8553.850.010.01
CampbellBSth0.120.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.120.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.120.1139.2939.29-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.090.1163.3363.730.020.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.1123.0823.57-0.05-0.06
PurdueB100.120.1163.3363.340.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.1144.8344.45-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1190.0090.000.090.09
Miami FLACC0.090.1163.3363.690.020.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.100.0910.0010.00-0.08-0.07
BradleyMVC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0953.5753.570.010.01
IdahoBSky0.100.0944.0044.89-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0930.7731.10-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0920.0020.58-0.06-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0953.5754.710.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0983.3383.560.060.06
Green BayHorz0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0924.1423.68-0.05-0.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
High PointBSth0.090.0870.3770.370.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0837.0437.15-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0842.8642.02-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0855.1755.170.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.090.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.090.0890.0088.620.070.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0825.0024.21-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0854.8454.840.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0863.3362.470.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0863.3362.750.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0653.5753.570.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0638.4638.46-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.76-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0615.3816.33-0.05-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.070.0622.2222.12-0.04-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0646.1547.43-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0650.0049.000.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0668.0066.550.010.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0627.5928.43-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0646.1544.67-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0640.0040.12-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0661.5458.930.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0637.5039.77-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0650.0048.800.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0615.3814.76-0.02-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0637.0437.87-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0667.8667.860.010.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0627.5927.73-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0664.2965.480.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.0047.71-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0689.6689.660.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0628.5727.75-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.060.0644.4444.55-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.060.0637.0436.25-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0629.6329.22-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0680.0078.510.040.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.0099.900.060.06
La SalleA100.030.0650.0049.650.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0633.3331.64-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0650.0050.800.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.4833.48-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0648.1548.24-0.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.5655.060.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.8669.260.020.02
YaleIvy0.060.0670.3768.760.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0537.9338.79-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0572.4172.060.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0550.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0576.6775.470.030.03
MarylandB100.060.0583.3382.790.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0557.1456.730.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0570.0069.450.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0533.3332.69-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0560.0059.110.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0596.5595.350.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.19-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0328.5729.92-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0375.0075.640.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0369.2369.550.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.74-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.030.0357.6958.440.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.45-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0346.1547.66-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0328.5728.70-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.7253.220.000.00
UtahP120.030.0377.7878.830.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0344.0045.86-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0360.8761.600.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.33-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0344.8346.90-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0340.7440.32-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0324.0024.96-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0346.4345.05-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0359.0960.710.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0372.4172.040.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.04-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0385.7185.710.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.13-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0379.3178.180.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0360.7160.320.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.9276.660.020.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0356.6755.630.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0366.6766.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.3770.990.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0360.0061.150.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.8343.74-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.89-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0370.0069.320.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.660.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0331.8231.52-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0337.9339.05-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.730.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.240.010.01
OregonP120.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0360.0059.680.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0343.3343.11-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0373.3373.200.010.01