live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:229.0
Current RPI:229
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:144
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:308



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19229.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH76-63W100%0.0
11-19Evansville (118.0)MVCH50-69L0%0.0
11-22Liberty (347.0)BSthH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern (125.0)B10N46-55L0%0.0
11-26Virginia Tech (228.0)ACCN63-78L0%0.0
11-30Elon (259.0)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-3Dayton (32.0)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-6IPFW (215.0)SumA86-78L0%0.0
12-14Wright St. (264.0)HorzA68-59L0%0.0
12-17Longwood (316.0)BSthH71-60W100%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (41.0)B10A93-55L0%0.0
1-3UMKC (295.0)WACH66-61W100%0.0
1-7Buffalo (28.0)MACH72-79L0%0.0
1-10Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH82-81W100%0.0
1-14Central Michigan (70.0)MACA105-77L0%0.0
1-17Buffalo (28.0)MACA77-68L0%0.0
1-21Western Michigan (119.0)MACH58-69L0%0.0
1-24Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA55-60W100%0.0
1-27Toledo (79.0)MACA70-65L0%0.0
1-31Ball St. (284.0)MACH79-73W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH67-69L0%0.0
2-7Kent St. (94.0)MACA61-60L0%0.0
2-10Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA83-69L0%0.0
2-14Ohio (231.0)MACH77-66W100%0.0
2-18Bowling Green (109.0)MACA56-67W100%0.0
2-21Akron (115.0)MACA52-57W100%0.0
2-24Kent St. (94.0)MACH86-81W100%0.0
2-28Bowling Green (109.0)MACH57-62L0%0.0
3-3Akron (115.0)MACH70-63W100%0.0
3-6Ohio (231.0)MACA95-65L0%0.0
3-9Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA62-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2926.2935.0435.04-7.87-7.87
Eastern MichiganMAC5.605.6055.5655.560.620.62
AkronMAC4.124.1262.5062.501.031.03
Bowling GreenMAC4.124.1267.8667.861.471.47
OhioMAC4.044.0432.1432.14-1.44-1.44
BuffaloMAC4.014.0170.0070.001.611.61
Kent St.MAC3.983.9865.5265.521.241.24
Northern IllinoisMAC3.963.9644.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Western MichiganMAC2.532.5356.6756.670.340.34
ToledoMAC2.522.5259.3859.380.470.47
Central MichiganMAC2.502.5070.3770.371.021.02
Ball St.MAC2.492.4921.4321.43-1.42-1.42
LongwoodBSth1.781.7829.0329.03-0.75-0.75
DaytonA101.751.7575.0075.000.870.87
NorthwesternB101.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Wright St.Horz1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
EvansvilleMVC1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
LibertyBSth1.691.6914.8114.81-1.19-1.19
Ohio St.B101.671.6768.7568.750.620.62
Virginia TechACC1.641.6431.2531.25-0.62-0.62
ElonCAA1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
IPFWSum1.611.6146.1546.15-0.12-0.12
Southern UtahBSky1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
UMKCWAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Youngstown St.Horz0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
OaklandHorz0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
IowaB100.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
MichiganB100.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1670.0070.000.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1523.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Penn St.B100.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
James MadisonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
WisconsinB100.130.1391.1891.180.100.10
Miami FLACC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1183.3383.330.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
NebraskaB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.9190.910.080.08
DrexelCAA0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
South DakotaSum0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
IllinoisB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.070.0774.2974.290.040.04
UMBCAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UtahP120.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RichmondA100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01