Miami OH

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	247.0
Current RPI:	247
Expected SOS:	98
Current SOS:	98
Current Record:	8-21
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-7
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	251
Expected OOC SOS:	56

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	247.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Dayton (81.0)	A10	H	72-67	W	100%
11-18	Xavier (41.0)	A10	A	66-60	L	0%
11-26	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	A	64-57	L	0%
11-29	Cincinnati (44.0)	BE	A	56-47	L	0%
12-3	Troy (260.0)	SB	A	73-60	L	0%
12-10	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	H	49-51	L	0%
12-17	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	66-61	W	100%
12-20	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	75-77	L	0%
12-22	Ohio St. (7.0)	B10	A	69-40	L	0%
12-29	William & Mary (299.0)	CAA	H	73-69	W	100%
1-2	Vanderbilt (18.0)	SEC	A	69-62	L	0%
1-7	Akron (55.0)	MAC	H	60-65	L	0%
1-11	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	A	71-67	L	0%
1-14	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	H	52-51	W	100%
1-18	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	H	57-65	L	0%
1-21	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	A	69-65	L	0%
1-25	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	H	61-63	L	0%
1-28	Western Michigan (205.0)	MAC	A	73-64	L	0%
2-1	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	62-57	W	100%
2-4	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	A	53-59	W	100%
2-8	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	A	62-59	L	0%
2-11	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	H	69-50	W	100%
2-15	Akron (55.0)	MAC	A	74-59	L	0%
2-19	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	H	61-68	L	0%
2-21	Kent St. (106.0)	MAC	H	62-60	W	100%
2-25	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	84-74	L	0%
2-29	Bowling Green (158.0)	MAC	A	56-51	L	0%
3-3	Ohio (47.0)	MAC	H	54-63	L	0%
3-5	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	60-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Miami OH	MAC	26.14	26.14	23.53	23.53	-13.84	-13.84
Ohio	MAC	4.30	4.30	77.42	77.42	2.36	2.36
Akron	MAC	4.21	4.21	63.33	63.33	1.12	1.12
Kent St.	MAC	4.17	4.17	65.52	65.52	1.30	1.30
Buffalo	MAC	4.16	4.16	65.38	65.38	1.28	1.28
Bowling Green	MAC	4.12	4.12	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
Toledo	MAC	4.09	4.09	46.67	46.67	-0.27	-0.27
Central Michigan	MAC	2.51	2.51	33.33	33.33	-0.84	-0.84
Western Michigan	MAC	2.46	2.46	37.50	37.50	-0.61	-0.61
Northern Illinois	MAC	2.39	2.39	10.71	10.71	-1.88	-1.88
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.37	2.37	43.33	43.33	-0.32	-0.32
Ball St.	MAC	2.36	2.36	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	1.86	1.86	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Xavier	A10	1.86	1.86	62.50	62.50	0.46	0.46
Wright St.	Horz	1.85	1.85	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.81	1.81	58.62	58.62	0.31	0.31
Belmont	ASun	1.78	1.78	81.25	81.25	1.12	1.12
Cincinnati	BE	1.78	1.78	69.70	69.70	0.70	0.70
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.75	1.75	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Ohio St.	B10	1.75	1.75	78.79	78.79	1.01	1.01
Troy	SB	1.75	1.75	30.77	30.77	-0.67	-0.67
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.75	1.75	69.70	69.70	0.69	0.69
Evansville	MVC	1.72	1.72	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	1.72	1.72	16.67	16.67	-1.15	-1.15
Temple	A10	0.28	0.28	77.42	77.42	0.15	0.15
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.25	0.25	25.00	25.00	-0.13	-0.13
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Morehead St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.23	0.23	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Valparaiso	Horz	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.20	0.20	6.90	6.90	-0.17	-0.17
Detroit	Horz	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.19	0.19	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	96.43	96.43	0.16	0.16
Arkansas St.	SB	0.17	0.17	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Butler	Horz	0.17	0.17	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
St. Louis	A10	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	21.88	21.88	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	94.12	94.12	0.07	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00