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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:217.5
Current RPI:218
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:104
Current Record:8-15
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:104



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15138.50.02%
14-16151.80.12%
13-17168.41.36%
12-18184.57.42%
11-19200.520.46%
10-20216.633.21%
9-21232.427.96%
8-22247.49.44%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Xavier (9.6)BEA81-72L0%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (271.7)ASunH70-68W100%0.0
11-21Florida Atlantic (280.3)CUSAH69-75L0%0.0
11-22Northeastern (148.8)CAAH67-61W100%0.0
11-24IPFW (81.4)SumH53-57L0%0.0
11-28UCF (196.9)AmerH64-63W100%0.0
12-5IUPUI (178.2)SumA78-64L0%0.0
12-13Wright St. (157.3)HorzH72-67W100%0.0
12-15Jackson St. (216.7)SWACH64-53W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee Tech (108.4)OVCA77-64L0%0.0
12-22Dayton (13.0)A10A64-63L0%0.0
1-2South Carolina St. (207.1)MEACH67-71L0%0.0
1-6Bowling Green (198.5)MACA73-62L0%0.0
1-9Toledo (139.4)MACH76-84L0%0.0
1-12Kent St. (107.9)MACA76-68L0%0.0
1-16Ball St. (168.1)MACA48-46L0%0.0
1-19Buffalo (91.9)MACH60-77L0%0.0
1-23Akron (33.2)MACA75-46L0%0.0
1-26Central Michigan (143.8)MACH51-68L0%0.0
1-30Northern Illinois (140.6)MACH72-59W100%0.0
2-2Eastern Michigan (144.1)MACA94-69L0%0.0
2-6Bowling Green (198.5)MACH55-51W100%0.0
2-9Western Michigan (218.0)MACA44-45W100%0.0
2-13Toledo (139.4)MACA0-012%-12.8
2-16Ball St. (168.1)MACH0-045%-1.5
2-20Ohio (95.8)MACA0-017%-10.2
2-23Akron (33.2)MACH0-021%-8.9
2-27Kent St. (107.9)MACH0-043%-2.0
3-1Buffalo (91.9)MACA0-017%-10.4
3-4Ohio (95.8)MACH0-037%-3.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2126.2528.8727.37-11.08-11.88
AkronMAC2.774.1481.8280.521.762.52
OhioMAC0.644.1363.6460.650.170.88
BuffaloMAC2.674.1054.5554.530.240.37
Bowling GreenMAC4.794.1050.0045.510.00-0.37
Ball St.MAC2.714.0859.0955.690.490.46
Kent St.MAC2.624.0863.6459.300.720.76
ToledoMAC2.674.0259.0959.800.480.79
Western MichiganMAC2.762.5233.3333.86-0.92-0.81
Northern IllinoisMAC2.612.4963.1659.850.690.49
Central MichiganMAC2.722.4645.0047.47-0.27-0.12
Eastern MichiganMAC2.722.4636.8441.24-0.71-0.43
LipscombASun2.361.8126.0930.33-1.13-0.71
Wright St.Horz2.371.7859.0959.050.430.32
IUPUISum2.271.7837.5037.69-0.57-0.44
South Carolina St.MEAC2.271.7850.0052.440.000.09
Jackson St.SWAC2.221.7652.3856.120.110.21
NortheasternCAA2.321.7547.8348.24-0.10-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.311.7519.0524.58-1.43-0.89
IPFWSum2.271.7569.5767.470.890.61
Tennessee TechOVC2.271.7263.6463.000.620.45
XavierBE2.271.7286.9681.231.681.08
UCFAmer2.221.7052.3846.270.11-0.13
DaytonA102.221.6986.3681.531.611.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.3421.7422.74-0.16-0.18
DetroitHorz0.390.2647.6245.85-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.240.2330.4332.35-0.09-0.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.2031.8236.14-0.07-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.140.2072.7370.400.060.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.2029.1733.11-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1852.0050.230.010.00
South DakotaSum0.240.1741.6741.24-0.04-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1747.6252.03-0.010.01
Green BayHorz0.190.1754.5556.010.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.140.1568.1865.160.050.04
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1450.0049.850.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.150.1468.0067.990.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1458.3358.480.020.02
DenverSum0.180.1454.1751.780.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.1450.0051.190.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1481.8283.030.090.09
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1433.3335.05-0.05-0.04
BelmontOVC0.140.1268.0066.660.050.04
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1240.0042.85-0.04-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.125.007.22-0.14-0.10
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1214.2920.65-0.11-0.07
North FloridaASun0.150.1265.2267.120.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1213.6415.80-0.14-0.08
East CarolinaAmer0.200.1241.6739.46-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1259.0959.650.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.1124.0025.67-0.03-0.06
StetsonASun0.140.1123.8127.73-0.07-0.05
TulsaAmer0.050.1166.6764.730.020.03
VermontAE0.150.1152.0054.870.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.140.1150.0053.000.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1172.0071.540.090.05
William & MaryCAA0.190.1171.4369.840.080.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1136.8442.89-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1171.4369.430.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1127.7834.45-0.06-0.04
NJITASun0.140.1154.1755.260.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1163.6462.150.040.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1139.1341.11-0.03-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1173.9174.700.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1127.7829.16-0.06-0.05
MarquetteBE0.180.1164.0057.920.050.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1144.0045.35-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.140.1121.7423.32-0.08-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.1145.8343.68-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.090.1187.5086.870.070.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0924.0024.17-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.100.0940.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0920.0022.26-0.06-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0938.1037.70-0.01-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.140.0986.9686.650.100.06
Michigan St.B100.150.0980.0081.580.090.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0943.4850.66-0.010.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.4554.16-0.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.094.357.72-0.09-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.1341.03-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.0950.0046.760.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0945.4546.21-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0969.5764.900.020.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0963.6460.930.030.02
DuquesneA100.140.0960.8756.360.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0922.7324.97-0.05-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0921.7423.40-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.090.0958.3359.360.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0823.8126.56-0.05-0.04
DePaulBE0.140.0833.3334.01-0.05-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.230.030.02
James MadisonCAA0.090.0870.8369.490.040.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0856.5262.820.010.02
SMUAmer0.100.0886.9682.900.070.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.0876.1973.410.070.04
ButlerBE0.090.0870.8368.990.040.03
CreightonBE0.090.0864.0062.040.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0850.0049.600.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0883.3381.320.030.05
VCUA100.050.0873.9174.060.020.04
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.380.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.540.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.0631.8230.15-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0645.4549.69-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0647.8350.01-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.069.0912.25-0.08-0.04
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.93-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0629.1733.74-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.090.0682.6180.520.060.04
MissouriSEC0.100.0633.3330.27-0.03-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.35-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0640.0040.34-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.580.020.03
DrakeMVC0.100.0620.8323.19-0.06-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.11-0.03-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0670.8367.980.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.750.040.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.0647.3749.90-0.01-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.0019.76-0.06-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.0661.9065.310.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0631.5832.01-0.04-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0663.6459.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.92-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.390.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.0645.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.100.0624.0026.33-0.05-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.06-0.04-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.25-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0652.1751.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.14-0.04-0.04
DavidsonA100.100.0661.9058.060.020.01
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.70-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.100.0675.0071.920.050.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0657.8956.090.010.01
MassachusettsA100.100.0640.9139.26-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0658.3359.960.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0660.8755.970.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.0620.8324.09-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.0011.96-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0613.6418.18-0.00-0.04
DukeACC0.050.0675.0071.800.020.02
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.840.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8368.000.020.02
La SalleA100.090.0619.0520.33-0.06-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.20-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0650.0049.050.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0672.0069.150.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0658.3357.220.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0634.7832.42-0.01-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0623.8122.82-0.02-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.100.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0673.0872.640.020.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.45-0.05-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.41-0.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.81-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.370.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.970.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.590.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.490.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0325.0025.09-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.310.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.20-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.230.020.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.23-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.480.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0334.7840.89-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.630.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0334.7836.51-0.02-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.040.020.01
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.480.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3333.07-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.250.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.680.020.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0328.5729.66-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.13-0.02-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.21-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.370.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.04-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0372.2275.620.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.660.020.01
UtahP120.050.0370.8368.500.020.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0339.1335.44-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0356.0056.490.010.00
FordhamA100.050.0352.3850.750.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0354.1754.080.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
PurdueB100.040.0380.0077.960.030.02
RichmondA100.000.0356.5255.730.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.32-0.03-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.620.030.02
USCP120.050.0378.2673.050.030.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.91-0.01-0.01