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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:195.0
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:90
Current SOS:90
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-2
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:101



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20195.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Xavier (7.0)BEA81-72L0%0.0
11-20Lipscomb (269.0)ASunH70-68W100%0.0
11-21Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH69-75L0%0.0
11-22Northeastern (109.0)CAAH67-61W100%0.0
11-24IPFW (71.0)SumH53-57L0%0.0
11-28UCF (219.0)AmerH64-63W100%0.0
12-5IUPUI (189.0)SumA78-64L0%0.0
12-13Wright St. (146.0)HorzH72-67W100%0.0
12-15Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH64-53W100%0.0
12-18Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA77-64L0%0.0
12-22Dayton (21.0)A10A64-63L0%0.0
1-2South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH67-71L0%0.0
1-6Bowling Green (200.0)MACA73-62L0%0.0
1-9Toledo (182.0)MACH76-84L0%0.0
1-12Kent St. (124.0)MACA76-68L0%0.0
1-16Ball St. (179.0)MACA48-46L0%0.0
1-19Buffalo (90.0)MACH60-77L0%0.0
1-23Akron (34.0)MACA75-46L0%0.0
1-26Central Michigan (156.0)MACH51-68L0%0.0
1-30Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH72-59W100%0.0
2-2Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA94-69L0%0.0
2-6Bowling Green (200.0)MACH55-51W100%0.0
2-9Western Michigan (202.0)MACA44-45W100%0.0
2-13Toledo (182.0)MACA93-48L0%0.0
2-16Ball St. (179.0)MACH56-73L0%0.0
2-20Ohio (81.0)MACA76-64L0%0.0
2-23Akron (34.0)MACH77-64W100%0.0
2-27Kent St. (124.0)MACH74-65W100%0.0
3-1Buffalo (90.0)MACA59-67W100%0.0
3-4Ohio (81.0)MACH65-67L0%0.0
3-7Ball St. (179.0)MACA47-49W100%0.0
3-10Buffalo (90.0)MACN94-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.3426.3433.8033.80-8.53-8.53
BuffaloMAC5.495.4956.6756.670.730.73
Ball St.MAC5.375.3757.1457.140.770.77
AkronMAC4.054.0577.4277.422.222.22
OhioMAC4.024.0262.0762.070.970.97
Bowling GreenMAC4.004.0043.3343.33-0.53-0.53
Kent St.MAC3.893.8958.6258.620.670.67
ToledoMAC3.863.8648.2848.28-0.13-0.13
Eastern MichiganMAC2.462.4646.4346.43-0.18-0.18
Northern IllinoisMAC2.442.4460.7160.710.520.52
Western MichiganMAC2.422.4237.9337.93-0.58-0.58
Central MichiganMAC2.392.3946.4346.43-0.17-0.17
IUPUISum1.691.6936.6736.67-0.45-0.45
LipscombASun1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
South Carolina St.MEAC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Wright St.Horz1.661.6662.5062.500.420.42
Jackson St.SWAC1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
IPFWSum1.641.6470.0070.000.660.66
NortheasternCAA1.641.6454.8454.840.160.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.641.6420.0020.00-0.98-0.98
Tennessee TechOVC1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
XavierBE1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
UCFAmer1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
DaytonA101.591.5977.4277.420.870.87
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2923.3323.33-0.16-0.16
DetroitHorz0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
St. BonaventureA100.200.2073.3373.330.090.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
OaklandHorz0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
StetsonASun0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
VermontAE0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1262.8662.860.030.03
DelawareCAA0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.10-0.10
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1022.8622.86-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1011.1111.11-0.08-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
NJITASun0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1029.1729.17-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
DePaulBE0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TowsonCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
OregonP120.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
USCP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01