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Through games of Jan 31, 2015.


Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:261.9
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:176
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15176.00.02%
14-16190.10.33%
13-17208.91.95%
12-18225.57.18%
11-19242.318.06%
10-20258.728.18%
9-21274.426.69%
8-22288.214.41%
7-23299.33.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Southern Utah (322.1)BSkyH76-63W100%0.0
11-19Evansville (93.4)MVCH50-69L0%0.0
11-22Liberty (346.6)BSthH63-52W100%0.0
11-25Northwestern (159.3)B10N46-55L0%0.0
11-26Virginia Tech (212.1)ACCN63-78L0%0.0
11-30Elon (259.2)CAAH68-70L0%0.0
12-3Dayton (41.8)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-6IPFW (237.3)SumA86-78L0%0.0
12-14Wright St. (176.3)HorzA68-59L0%0.0
12-17Longwood (321.4)BSthH71-60W100%0.0
12-22Ohio St. (23.9)B10A93-55L0%0.0
1-3UMKC (286.3)WACH66-61W100%0.0
1-7Buffalo (38.8)MACH72-79L0%0.0
1-10Eastern Michigan (139.8)MACH82-81W100%0.0
1-14Central Michigan (82.5)MACA105-77L0%0.0
1-17Buffalo (38.8)MACA77-68L0%0.0
1-21Western Michigan (130.8)MACH58-69L0%0.0
1-24Northern Illinois (238.2)MACA55-60W100%0.0
1-27Toledo (88.1)MACA70-65L0%0.0
1-31Ball St. (222.4)MACH79-73W100%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (238.2)MACH0-054%1.1
2-7Kent St. (98.8)MACA0-014%-12.0
2-10Eastern Michigan (139.8)MACA0-013%-12.6
2-14Ohio (213.9)MACH0-056%1.6
2-18Bowling Green (83.2)MACA0-010%-14.0
2-21Akron (96.4)MACA0-012%-12.8
2-24Kent St. (98.8)MACH0-032%-5.2
2-28Bowling Green (83.2)MACH0-026%-7.2
3-3Akron (96.4)MACH0-029%-6.0
3-6Ohio (213.9)MACA0-031%-5.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.4126.2728.4127.36-11.40-11.89
Bowling GreenMAC0.404.1772.2267.650.181.47
OhioMAC0.534.1536.8433.90-0.14-1.34
BuffaloMAC5.284.0966.6765.871.761.30
Eastern MichiganMAC2.904.0862.5059.280.730.76
Kent St.MAC0.484.0870.0063.830.191.13
AkronMAC0.414.0870.0065.230.161.24
Northern IllinoisMAC2.764.0341.1837.96-0.49-0.97
Ball St.MAC2.782.5135.2934.92-0.82-0.76
Western MichiganMAC3.012.5155.5654.140.330.21
Central MichiganMAC2.892.5073.3370.971.351.05
ToledoMAC2.712.4960.0058.840.540.44
LongwoodBSth2.711.8225.0027.11-1.35-0.83
DaytonA102.571.7978.9576.571.490.95
NorthwesternB102.761.7845.0040.09-0.28-0.35
Wright St.Horz2.621.7842.1144.66-0.41-0.19
EvansvilleMVC2.561.7570.0065.221.030.53
LibertyBSth2.621.7511.1115.49-2.04-1.21
Ohio St.B102.621.7276.1976.711.370.92
Virginia TechACC2.571.7040.0034.64-0.51-0.52
ElonCAA2.561.6940.0039.69-0.51-0.35
IPFWSum2.501.6738.8942.10-0.56-0.26
Southern UtahBSky2.501.6723.5326.48-1.32-0.78
UMKCWAC2.501.6735.0039.84-0.75-0.34
Youngstown St.Horz0.330.2733.3333.58-0.11-0.09
IowaB100.240.2061.9062.540.060.05
OaklandHorz0.260.1840.0043.84-0.05-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.1863.1661.830.020.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1731.8237.46-0.05-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1714.2917.22-0.09-0.11
MichiganB100.190.1760.0052.430.040.01
St. BonaventureA100.190.1757.8953.420.030.01
Penn St.B100.060.1663.6453.800.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.250.1555.5654.030.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.1568.1870.090.090.06
PresbyterianBSth0.240.1515.7915.85-0.17-0.10
RadfordBSth0.180.1565.0065.260.060.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1510.0019.57-0.11-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1552.3855.840.010.02
DetroitHorz0.180.1540.9140.80-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1555.0053.850.010.01
BelmontOVC0.180.1566.6764.950.060.04
DrakeMVC0.130.1523.8124.55-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.260.1547.6248.94-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1410.0014.17-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1423.5329.22-0.10-0.06
James MadisonCAA0.250.1456.5256.700.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1455.0056.280.020.02
Michigan St.B100.130.1466.6764.960.040.04
WisconsinB100.180.1490.4888.270.150.10
IUPUISum0.190.1236.3638.81-0.05-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.200.1280.9579.380.120.07
DartmouthIvy0.190.1244.4446.70-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.070.1235.2930.55-0.02-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.130.1261.1163.600.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1235.0035.67-0.04-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1244.4448.67-0.01-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.190.1215.0019.64-0.13-0.07
WinthropBSth0.130.1244.4450.36-0.010.00
CampbellBSth0.120.1225.0031.87-0.06-0.04
DePaulBE0.070.1247.8342.09-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.250.1247.6244.77-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.1172.7368.500.030.04
Georgia TechACC0.190.1147.6245.06-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.180.1135.0034.77-0.06-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.1136.3635.61-0.02-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1126.3228.59-0.00-0.05
PurdueB100.130.1163.6460.040.030.02
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1448.260.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1190.9187.360.150.08
Miami FLACC0.000.1170.0065.890.000.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.0935.0037.17-0.04-0.02
MaineAE0.150.099.0911.67-0.12-0.07
BradleyMVC0.140.0927.2726.92-0.06-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0961.9062.150.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.0957.1454.710.020.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0935.2943.62-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.130.0923.8124.22-0.07-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0952.6353.920.000.01
Green BayHorz0.120.0975.0075.520.060.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.0933.3332.33-0.04-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.0936.8436.89-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.180.0973.6870.440.090.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.0919.0526.06-0.11-0.04
North FloridaASun0.180.0952.3857.760.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.0914.2918.51-0.09-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.0945.0049.35-0.02-0.00
Notre DameACC0.130.0986.9682.950.100.06
NortheasternCAA0.130.0965.2265.290.040.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0842.1138.99-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0835.0037.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.180.0860.0063.450.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0827.2727.43-0.03-0.04
UMBCAE0.060.0814.2917.14-0.04-0.06
DukeACC0.120.0885.7184.620.090.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0819.0525.57-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.0850.0053.730.000.01
IllinoisB100.120.0863.6460.730.030.02
IndianaB100.110.0872.7366.680.050.03
DenverSum0.070.0640.9144.93-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0650.0051.680.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0636.8437.56-0.04-0.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0640.9142.86-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0638.1038.64-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0615.0021.32-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0627.7832.64-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0650.0054.030.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0650.0046.310.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0668.4264.160.030.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0628.5731.94-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0640.0039.51-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0642.1137.78-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0636.8442.01-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4266.670.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.0626.6741.31-0.06-0.01
Kansas St.B120.130.0654.5546.520.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.120.0665.0066.400.040.02
George MasonA100.060.0631.5830.42-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0615.7921.13-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0630.0038.13-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0626.0929.52-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0665.0068.010.000.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.8764.330.010.02
MissouriSEC0.120.0630.0028.64-0.05-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0652.3861.790.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.0650.0047.830.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0644.4447.73-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.120.0645.4543.46-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0685.7185.840.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.060.0663.1667.030.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.130.0613.6417.18-0.09-0.04
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0050.410.000.00
CornellIvy0.130.0647.3747.37-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.060.0631.5828.68-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0623.5324.33-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.000.0685.7177.830.000.03
KentuckySEC0.130.06100.0098.420.130.05
La SalleA100.060.0657.1455.610.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0620.0024.85-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0652.3853.270.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.0615.0019.83-0.09-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0640.0035.39-0.01-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0652.6353.480.000.00
USCP120.000.0645.0038.92-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.0655.0054.480.010.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0666.6769.240.000.02
YaleIvy0.000.0668.4268.150.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0545.0040.95-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.060.0580.9579.010.040.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0552.3845.640.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.120.0585.7180.350.080.03
MarylandB100.120.0581.8276.540.070.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0559.0955.340.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.120.0577.2774.970.060.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.0535.0039.94-0.04-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0543.4836.37-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0566.6758.780.020.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0595.0091.130.050.04
Cal PolyBW0.070.0344.4448.13-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0319.0518.75-0.04-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0321.0524.70-0.04-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0326.3229.40-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0344.4443.51-0.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0359.0962.480.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0325.0031.77-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0368.4269.350.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0331.5831.34-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.6360.480.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0372.2273.710.000.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0344.4445.13-0.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.030.005.54-0.07-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0054.040.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0315.0017.85-0.05-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0376.1976.490.040.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0331.8234.59-0.03-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0357.1455.960.010.00
UtahP120.070.0378.9580.300.040.02
UTSACUSA0.070.0344.4443.28-0.01-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0342.8645.64-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0360.0065.370.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0342.8649.26-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0337.5041.05-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0340.0037.61-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0361.5465.360.010.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0380.0070.910.040.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0347.6253.91-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0314.2916.72-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0380.9581.980.040.02
New HampshireAE0.070.0355.0056.480.010.00
PacificWCC0.070.0335.0030.78-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0339.1337.63-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0336.3640.39-0.02-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.070.030.001.43-0.07-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0357.8960.230.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0338.1040.95-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0376.1971.460.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0335.0040.48-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0357.8959.320.010.01
DavidsonA100.060.0372.2273.480.030.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0357.1455.890.010.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0366.6764.710.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0373.6869.970.000.01
RichmondA100.060.0357.1460.410.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0345.0042.78-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0375.0066.870.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0340.0039.46-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0336.8435.82-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0350.0050.450.000.00
ButlerBE0.060.0372.7371.820.030.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0361.9054.070.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0340.9145.99-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0335.7133.63-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0347.6243.52-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0356.5257.100.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0336.3643.14-0.02-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0360.8757.630.000.00
OregonP120.060.0366.6761.490.020.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0361.9055.030.010.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0336.3640.54-0.02-0.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0327.7831.47-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0338.1039.08-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.060.0330.0034.92-0.02-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0345.4539.76-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0385.7175.730.040.01