live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:153
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:213
Expected OOC SOS:131


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22258.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9North Carolina St. (33.0)ACCA97-59L0%0.0
11-13Grambling (347.0)SWACH80-54W100%0.0
11-18Louisville (3.0)BEA80-39L0%0.0
11-21William & Mary (271.0)CAAA59-72W100%0.0
11-24James Madison (182.0)CAAH76-58W100%0.0
12-1IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumA57-56L0%0.0
12-5Evansville (106.0)MVCA94-68L0%0.0
12-8Dayton (114.0)A10A83-61L0%0.0
12-19Wright St. (129.0)HorzA67-59L0%0.0
12-22Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzH82-70W100%0.0
1-2Massachusetts (57.0)A10H69-70L0%0.0
1-9Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH61-72L0%0.0
1-12Buffalo (215.0)MACA57-58W100%0.0
1-16Bowling Green (274.0)MACH63-60W100%0.0
1-19Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACA65-58L0%0.0
1-23Ohio (67.0)MACH62-74L0%0.0
1-26Ball St. (233.0)MACH62-82L0%0.0
1-30Western Michigan (128.0)MACH68-72L0%0.0
2-2Central Michigan (268.0)MACA61-70W100%0.0
2-6Toledo (193.0)MACA65-64L0%0.0
2-9Akron (43.0)MACH50-54L0%0.0
2-13Kent St. (131.0)MACA87-70L0%0.0
2-16Buffalo (215.0)MACH71-79L0%0.0
2-23Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA74-68L0%0.0
2-27Bowling Green (274.0)MACA52-44L0%0.0
3-2Kent St. (131.0)MACH58-78L0%0.0
3-5Akron (43.0)MACA72-58L0%0.0
3-9Ohio (67.0)MACA58-54L0%0.0
3-11Bowling Green (274.0)MACA52-63W100%0.0
3-13Eastern Michigan (239.0)MACN58-47L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.2426.2428.5728.57-11.24-11.24
Bowling GreenMAC5.675.6737.0437.04-1.47-1.47
BuffaloMAC4.144.1436.6736.67-1.11-1.11
OhioMAC4.124.1270.9770.971.731.73
Kent St.MAC4.114.1156.6756.670.550.55
AkronMAC4.114.1179.3179.312.412.41
Eastern MichiganMAC4.044.0437.9337.93-0.98-0.98
Northern IllinoisMAC2.432.4310.7110.71-1.91-1.91
Western MichiganMAC2.422.4260.0060.000.480.48
Ball St.MAC2.372.3746.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Central MichiganMAC2.372.3734.4834.48-0.74-0.74
ToledoMAC2.322.3251.8551.850.090.09
Wright St.Horz1.861.8661.2961.290.420.42
MassachusettsA101.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.831.8353.3353.330.120.12
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.801.8043.3343.33-0.24-0.24
EvansvilleMVC1.801.8053.3353.330.120.12
James MadisonCAA1.751.7560.6160.610.370.37
William & MaryCAA1.741.7442.8642.86-0.25-0.25
DaytonA101.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
Southern IllinoisMVC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
North Carolina St.ACC1.721.7269.7069.700.680.68
GramblingSWAC1.701.700.000.00-1.70-1.70
LouisvilleBE1.671.6784.8584.851.161.16
Cleveland St.Horz0.430.4337.9337.93-0.10-0.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.300.3060.0060.000.060.06
TempleA100.270.2771.8871.880.120.12
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
OaklandSum0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.190.1929.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1954.5554.550.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
St. BonaventureA100.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.170.1713.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
BradleyMVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
CreightonMVC0.160.1679.4179.410.100.10
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
South FloridaBE0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
RichmondA100.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
New Orleansind0.140.1418.1818.18-0.09-0.09
SamfordSC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
MichiganB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
XavierA100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Notre DameBE0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
SyracuseBE0.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
HofstraCAA0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
George MasonCAA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
TowsonCAA0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Michigan St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
St. LouisA100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Virginia CommonwealthA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
YaleIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.087.147.14-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
MemphisCUSA0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
WinthropBSth0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0628.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0385.1985.190.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas St.WAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PacificBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.020.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0273.5373.530.010.01