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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:45.9
Current RPI:46
Expected SOS:55
Current SOS:69
Current Record:16-6
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:6.35%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:47
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-618.10.34%
23-725.03.98%
22-831.615.50%
21-939.729.37%
20-1050.030.56%
19-1161.316.02%
18-1274.73.84%
17-1389.10.38%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Charleston Southern (151.0)BSthH72-67W100%0.0
11-14Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzH74-61W100%0.0
11-22Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)MEACH92-50W100%0.0
12-1George Washington (196.4)A10H69-56W100%0.0
12-4Virginia Tech (93.2)ACCA61-69W100%0.0
12-8West Virginia (31.4)BEN80-85L0%0.0
12-11North Florida (183.0)ASunH79-68W100%0.0
12-17Alabama (30.4)SECN71-58W100%0.0
12-22Southern Illinois (227.1)MVCN58-83W100%0.0
12-23Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAN78-70W100%0.0
12-25Long Beach St. (39.1)BWN77-60W100%0.0
12-31Howard (313.9)MEACH82-46W100%0.0
1-4Kansas (8.8)B12A67-49L0%0.0
1-7Missouri (11.7)B12H75-59W100%0.0
1-10Baylor (6.8)B12H73-75L0%0.0
1-14Oklahoma (89.8)B12A82-73L0%0.0
1-18Texas (58.4)B12H84-80W100%0.0
1-21Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A58-66W100%0.0
1-25Texas Tech (233.7)B12A47-69W100%0.0
1-28Oklahoma (89.8)B12H60-63L0%0.0
1-31Iowa St. (39.6)B12A72-70L0%0.0
2-4Texas A&M (154.9)B12H64-53W100%0.0
2-7Texas Tech (233.7)B12H0-097%20.7
2-11Texas (58.4)B12A0-037%-3.6
2-13Kansas (8.8)B12H0-038%-3.3
2-18Baylor (6.8)B12A0-029%-6.0
2-21Missouri (11.7)B12A0-023%-7.9
2-25Iowa St. (39.6)B12H0-070%5.7
2-28Texas A&M (154.9)B12A0-069%5.6
3-3Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12H0-084%11.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.2326.3370.8367.1410.939.03
Oklahoma St.B122.944.2947.6243.05-0.14-0.60
KansasB122.944.2777.2778.211.602.41
BaylorB122.844.2490.4883.732.302.86
MissouriB122.784.2295.4590.552.533.42
TexasB122.734.2263.6463.430.741.13
Iowa St.B122.784.2272.7368.671.261.57
OklahomaB124.954.2155.0051.460.500.12
Texas TechB122.784.2133.3327.74-0.93-1.88
Texas A&MB122.784.2155.0048.430.28-0.13
Virginia TechACC2.421.8159.0957.040.440.25
HowardMEAC2.381.7819.0523.04-1.47-0.96
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.371.7521.0520.70-1.37-1.03
AlabamaSEC2.371.7571.4371.481.020.75
West VirginiaBE2.321.7263.6464.010.630.48
North FloridaASun2.371.7247.8348.29-0.10-0.06
Long Beach St.BW2.321.7275.0076.061.160.90
George WashingtonA102.331.7036.3633.19-0.64-0.57
Charleston SouthernBSth2.271.6757.8962.740.360.42
Loyola ChicagoHorz2.271.6720.0022.08-1.36-0.93
Southern IllinoisMVC2.271.6736.3633.21-0.62-0.56
Texas El PasoCUSA2.271.6745.4544.80-0.21-0.17
RiceCUSA0.260.2547.6246.46-0.01-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.210.2018.1821.13-0.13-0.11
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.2078.2672.340.120.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1742.1149.81-0.02-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.210.1535.2939.85-0.06-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1438.1042.78-0.04-0.02
AuburnSEC0.150.1456.5248.810.02-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.1410.0014.93-0.17-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1447.0650.75-0.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1454.1757.200.010.02
PittsburghBE0.160.1460.8758.160.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.200.1480.9577.380.130.08
Oral RobertsSum0.200.1480.7780.750.130.08
LibertyBSth0.110.1227.2727.21-0.05-0.06
StetsonASun0.210.1231.8231.31-0.08-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.210.1282.6180.420.140.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1268.1869.680.060.05
DetroitHorz0.210.1247.8349.03-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.150.1224.0024.86-0.08-0.06
FloridaSEC0.100.1182.6177.630.070.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1156.5254.220.010.01
DePaulBE0.110.1150.0042.830.00-0.02
St. LouisA100.200.1177.2777.670.110.06
DrakeMVC0.100.1152.1750.090.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1162.5061.500.020.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1126.3229.79-0.05-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.150.1169.5765.150.060.03
HoustonCUSA0.200.1147.6244.63-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.1138.1037.86-0.02-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.100.1160.8759.050.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.1186.9683.160.110.07
ClemsonACC0.150.1150.0048.360.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.118.7011.67-0.08-0.08
LipscombASun0.140.1143.4843.82-0.02-0.01
MercerASun0.100.1170.8371.640.040.05
North TexasSB0.100.1150.0050.010.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1155.0054.480.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1135.0040.78-0.03-0.02
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.100.1176.1975.940.050.06
Rhode IslandA100.150.1120.8320.60-0.09-0.06
DukeACC0.100.1186.3683.090.070.07
Notre DameBE0.050.1165.2262.650.020.03
UCLAP120.100.1154.5556.790.010.01
CampbellBSth0.160.0956.0055.650.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0936.3638.48-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0925.0037.58-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0919.0522.37-0.06-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0952.3857.860.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.100.0942.8639.66-0.01-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.160.0941.6740.61-0.03-0.02
CreightonMVC0.050.0987.5085.410.040.06
XavierA100.150.0965.2263.740.050.02
Florida St.ACC0.110.0972.7371.710.050.04
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0985.7178.050.080.05
TulaneCUSA0.110.0961.9058.590.030.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.0046.13-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0816.6723.02-0.07-0.05
St. John'sBE0.100.0843.4840.28-0.01-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0872.7364.430.050.02
LehighPat0.110.0873.9174.910.050.04
NavyPat0.110.089.5213.19-0.09-0.06
Old DominionCAA0.100.0860.0058.290.020.01
Oregon St.P120.100.0863.6463.160.030.02
VirginiaACC0.110.0881.8276.800.070.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.0812.5013.44-0.08-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0817.3924.41-0.07-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0819.0525.52-0.06-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0817.3922.00-0.06-0.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.0857.1460.750.010.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.0875.0076.000.050.04
CincinnatiBE0.150.0869.5765.470.060.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.100.0852.3852.860.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.100.0847.8343.66-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.100.0875.0074.610.050.04
KentuckySEC0.100.0895.8392.570.090.07
Ohio St.B100.100.0886.9685.460.070.06
SyracuseBE0.150.0895.8392.010.140.07
TempleA100.050.0877.2775.060.030.04
Miami FLACC0.100.0865.0060.020.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0870.8364.420.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0856.5250.270.010.00
South FloridaBE0.050.0854.5548.600.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.100.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0672.2271.970.050.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0634.7838.77-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0631.8232.75-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.0640.9143.66-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.068.7013.10-0.05-0.05
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0645.0044.15-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.110.0665.2263.790.030.02
ButlerHorz0.050.0650.0050.800.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.110.0650.0056.760.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0665.0066.700.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0621.0522.46-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.0681.8280.430.070.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0630.0030.06-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0633.3337.25-0.04-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0638.8943.93-0.02-0.01
PacificBW0.050.0635.0037.47-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.060.005.37-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.050.0635.0035.26-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0655.5658.010.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0665.2263.610.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.050.0635.0039.38-0.02-0.01
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0656.5257.720.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0650.0051.530.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.100.064.769.95-0.09-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0647.6248.82-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.100.0640.9134.50-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.0662.5062.060.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.068.708.99-0.04-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.050.0678.2672.660.030.03
BelmontASun0.090.0669.5773.280.040.03
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0647.8347.87-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.050.0650.0049.450.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0660.8760.960.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0650.0048.900.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.050.0615.0015.73-0.04-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0633.3333.88-0.03-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0670.8368.820.020.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.280.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0663.6456.710.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0681.8281.030.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.0669.5768.900.040.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0661.9055.140.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0630.0033.20-0.04-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0628.5726.30-0.04-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0654.5556.090.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0627.7829.58-0.02-0.02
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.290.020.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0657.1449.540.01-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.100.0640.9139.82-0.02-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.100.0680.0078.060.060.03
Washington St.P120.100.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0539.1342.12-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.100.0559.0959.720.020.01
MarylandACC0.100.0559.0950.820.020.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.0560.0059.060.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.050.004.02-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0530.4326.44-0.02-0.03
Boston UniversityAE0.050.0548.0051.88-0.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0528.5734.20-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0576.1976.760.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.050.0536.3639.72-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0554.1749.440.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0572.7366.810.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0550.0058.160.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0537.5041.54-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.0023.75-0.02-0.03
North DakotaGWC0.050.0533.3341.31-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.0031.54-0.02-0.02
RutgersBE0.100.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0547.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0525.0025.13-0.02-0.03
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0522.2227.62-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.050.054.005.26-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0534.7837.24-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0358.3359.980.010.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0368.1867.640.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.039.5211.44-0.05-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0334.7834.61-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0359.0957.930.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0342.8641.13-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0347.8350.65-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0347.6248.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0347.6251.08-0.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0375.0075.780.030.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0342.8643.45-0.01-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0337.5038.52-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0376.1970.730.030.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0355.0057.410.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0347.8348.56-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.035.267.30-0.04-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0326.3229.71-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0334.7834.48-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9142.96-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0317.6527.10-0.03-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0333.3335.97-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.600.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0366.6760.800.020.01
DuquesneA100.000.0359.0956.350.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0340.0040.18-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.050.0377.2773.450.030.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0373.9168.580.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.000.0369.5771.510.000.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
OaklandSum0.050.0348.0050.21-0.000.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
PurdueB100.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0362.5062.490.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0340.9139.56-0.01-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.000.0385.7182.180.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01
AkronMAC0.050.0368.1867.910.020.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0371.4369.050.020.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0379.1775.980.000.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0369.5761.310.020.01
MonmouthNEC0.050.0328.0028.91-0.02-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0360.8759.760.010.01