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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:133.6
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:8
Current SOS:204
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:162



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1231.00.01%
18-1342.40.13%
17-1454.40.52%
16-1565.21.36%
15-1680.14.05%
14-1796.09.20%
13-18111.415.30%
12-19127.220.21%
11-20142.820.75%
10-21159.416.69%
9-22175.98.38%
8-23191.22.89%
7-24207.50.47%
6-25223.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern Utah (316.6)BSkyH98-68W100%0.0
11-17UMKC (269.1)WACH83-73W100%0.0
11-21Long Beach St. (90.0)BWA69-60L0%0.0
11-24Purdue (59.6)B10N88-79W100%0.0
11-25Arizona (16.2)P12N72-68L0%0.0
11-26Pittsburgh (115.4)ACCN70-47L0%0.0
12-2Nebraska Omaha (200.9)SumH84-66W100%0.0
12-6Tennessee (131.7)SECA65-64L0%0.0
12-9Bradley (270.9)MVCH50-47W100%0.0
12-14Savannah St. (320.9)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
12-20Texas A&M (58.9)SECN0-031%-5.9
12-28Texas Southern (226.1)SWACH0-087%13.1
12-31Georgia (55.7)SECH0-043%-2.1
1-3Oklahoma St. (31.8)B12A0-013%-13.1
1-7TCU (71.6)B12H0-042%-2.4
1-10Oklahoma (19.0)B12A0-09%-16.1
1-14Texas Tech (89.8)B12H0-050%0.1
1-17Baylor (10.6)B12H0-024%-8.5
1-20Iowa St. (35.1)B12A0-013%-13.2
1-24Oklahoma St. (31.8)B12H0-036%-4.3
1-27West Virginia (26.8)B12H0-032%-5.4
1-31Kansas (7.5)B12A0-010%-15.3
2-4Texas Tech (89.8)B12A0-023%-8.6
2-7Texas (5.2)B12H0-014%-12.6
2-11West Virginia (26.8)B12A0-012%-14.1
2-14Oklahoma (19.0)B12H0-027%-7.4
2-18TCU (71.6)B12A0-017%-11.1
2-21Baylor (10.6)B12A0-07%-17.3
2-23Kansas (7.5)B12H0-029%-6.5
2-28Iowa St. (35.1)B12H0-035%-4.4
3-7Texas (5.2)B12A0-03%-21.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1227.7726.3155.5631.423.09-9.78
BaylorB120.004.1390.0073.200.001.92
TCUB120.284.11100.0066.000.281.31
KansasB120.314.1188.8968.780.241.54
TexasB120.004.1190.0081.110.002.55
Iowa St.B120.284.1088.8963.310.221.09
West VirginiaB120.004.0890.0065.980.001.30
OklahomaB120.004.0877.7866.250.001.32
Texas TechB120.004.0888.8955.200.000.42
Oklahoma St.B120.004.0788.8962.330.001.00
TennesseeSEC5.001.7442.8644.31-0.71-0.20
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7277.7865.220.000.52
UMKCWAC5.281.7025.0043.65-2.64-0.22
Texas SouthernSWAC0.311.6911.1146.01-0.24-0.14
GeorgiaSEC0.001.6762.5059.540.000.32
BradleyMVC5.001.6637.5033.17-1.25-0.56
Long Beach St.BW5.001.6633.3348.26-1.67-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum5.281.6450.0057.380.000.24
ArizonaP125.001.61100.0080.205.000.97
PittsburghACC5.001.6162.5050.681.250.02
PurdueB105.001.6180.0065.813.000.51
Savannah St.MEAC5.001.6120.0029.02-3.00-0.68
Southern UtahBSky5.001.6120.0028.15-3.00-0.70
South CarolinaSEC0.000.3062.5064.360.000.09
MissouriSEC0.730.3044.4431.65-0.08-0.11
LSUSEC0.000.2777.7862.380.000.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.270.0039.62-0.00-0.06
AuburnSEC0.000.2144.4435.62-0.00-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.230.2175.0060.600.110.05
KentuckySEC0.000.21100.0094.670.000.19
FloridaSEC0.000.1960.0064.870.000.06
AlabamaSEC0.000.1666.6755.660.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1677.7871.830.000.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1650.0039.320.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1666.6752.510.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.160.0034.38-0.00-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.1610.0018.04-0.00-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1471.4359.600.000.03
MemphisAmer0.280.1455.5660.050.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1420.0038.33-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1450.0056.370.000.02
MarylandB100.000.1490.9167.700.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1436.3664.92-0.000.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0037.61-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.510.1380.0057.470.300.02
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.590.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.540.1381.8264.060.340.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.130.008.81-0.23-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.000.1128.5742.24-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.640.1133.3340.60-0.21-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1144.4444.76-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.1120.0029.28-0.00-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1155.5656.480.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.1120.0020.14-0.00-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1137.5040.12-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1142.8636.42-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1111.1143.93-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0056.680.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1175.0050.770.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.230.11100.0085.210.230.08
Oregon St.P120.000.1175.0049.720.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.230.1137.5046.91-0.06-0.01
UCLAP120.250.1172.7357.410.110.02
WashingtonP120.250.11100.0072.030.250.05
George MasonA100.000.1125.0025.95-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.1172.7365.950.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1125.0048.84-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1137.5064.54-0.000.03
OaklandHorz0.230.1130.0032.16-0.09-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0028.64-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1066.6741.940.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1090.0066.470.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1057.1456.210.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.1075.0069.390.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1072.7373.120.000.05
StanfordP120.000.1075.0058.750.000.02
UtahP120.000.1077.7879.670.000.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0032.64-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.0928.5756.75-0.120.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.090.0023.23-0.28-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.0957.1454.700.040.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.0012.02-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.280.0837.5046.46-0.07-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0837.5041.33-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.230.0857.1456.730.030.01
IUPUISum0.230.0820.0026.18-0.14-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0833.3332.85-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0833.3334.56-0.09-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.280.0857.1461.280.040.02
UTSACUSA0.420.0842.8637.04-0.06-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.230.0825.0038.24-0.11-0.02
ButlerBE0.310.0880.0072.470.190.04
MercerSC0.000.0837.5041.84-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.250.0866.6777.710.080.04
SamfordSC0.780.0833.3331.37-0.26-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.280.0855.5654.760.030.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.0820.0028.69-0.14-0.03
HawaiiBW0.280.0866.6754.090.090.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0814.2934.33-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0890.9188.430.000.06
Arizona St.P120.000.0860.0054.270.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0850.0044.640.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0866.6757.580.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.0890.0091.070.180.06
MinnesotaB100.000.0877.7864.890.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0038.50-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.760.0870.0072.770.300.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0866.6757.600.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.080.0016.94-0.00-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.0855.5638.100.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0840.0029.07-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0616.6733.24-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.48-0.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0657.1447.960.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8641.92-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.640.0642.8655.67-0.090.01
Miami OHMAC0.420.0630.0028.35-0.17-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0650.0053.980.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.28-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.22-0.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.79-0.00-0.02
WinthropBSth0.450.0628.5747.18-0.19-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6776.500.000.03
MarquetteBE0.590.0655.5647.640.07-0.00
NevadaMWC0.530.0612.5024.75-0.40-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.64-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0070.220.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.37-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.900.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4444.99-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.120.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.650.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.210.000.04
Miami FLACC0.230.0590.0075.760.180.03
NebraskaB100.280.0566.6743.830.09-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0550.0049.770.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0545.4544.47-0.03-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0542.8638.02-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0536.3638.88-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0572.7351.600.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0530.0029.48-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0562.5071.700.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0533.3327.49-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0585.7161.530.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0542.8643.73-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.500.0580.0071.020.300.02
BYUWCC0.480.0566.6767.780.160.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0577.7851.090.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0032.05-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0533.3363.36-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0550.0037.400.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0525.0029.26-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.230.0537.5050.07-0.060.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0566.6759.320.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0510.0041.11-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0571.4361.390.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0525.0042.50-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.230.0555.5642.690.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0544.4456.70-0.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0525.0033.13-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0590.9171.750.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0590.0084.620.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0550.0055.940.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0562.5073.580.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0516.6725.04-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.0545.4552.00-0.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0062.870.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0560.0053.790.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0550.0050.360.000.00
VMISC0.000.0533.3338.88-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0577.7876.160.000.03
OregonP120.000.0566.6759.200.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0560.0034.930.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.420.0375.0068.510.210.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.40-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0325.0027.83-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.02-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.280.030.0017.71-0.28-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.0337.5048.87-0.06-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.70-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.88-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.16-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0044.01-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.0355.5638.460.03-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6744.37-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.19-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.230.0387.5054.920.170.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0342.8638.50-0.04-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0350.0061.650.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.280.0385.7170.330.200.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0318.1821.69-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0330.0039.75-0.11-0.01
Saint LouisA100.280.0360.0034.010.06-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.0325.0028.71-0.14-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.580.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0344.4451.18-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.890.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4364.070.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.820.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.440.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.090.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.310.0350.0041.530.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8963.530.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.520.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5055.05-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3340.58-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.310.0370.0071.520.120.01
Western MichiganMAC0.250.0362.5055.120.060.00
Arkansas St.SB0.230.0333.3345.72-0.08-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
DuquesneA100.280.0328.5731.25-0.12-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1452.640.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.280.0322.2237.72-0.15-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0337.5038.03-0.06-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.280.0314.2931.11-0.20-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.470.000.01
North FloridaASun0.230.0344.4456.92-0.030.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.460.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0071.340.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.280.0375.0064.990.140.01
USCP120.000.0360.0037.230.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.280.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01