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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:59.9
Current RPI:40
Expected SOS:20
Current SOS:7
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-920.70.34%
21-1026.03.04%
20-1135.811.32%
19-1249.024.17%
18-1361.429.74%
17-1473.621.08%
16-1587.78.47%
15-16103.51.68%
14-17120.90.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland Eastern Shore (267.6)MEACH80-53W100%0.0
11-16Columbia (125.6)IvyH81-71W100%0.0
11-20South Dakota (191.2)SumH93-72W100%0.0
11-23Missouri (218.4)SECN66-42W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina (10.8)ACCN80-70L0%0.0
11-29South Carolina St. (210.4)MEACH68-66W100%0.0
12-4Georgia (78.3)SECA66-68W100%0.0
12-9Coppin St. (321.3)MEACH83-58W100%0.0
12-12Texas A&M (21.6)SECA78-68L0%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (181.2)MWCH61-56W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota (209.6)BSkyH63-49W100%0.0
12-29Saint Louis (200.1)A10H75-47W100%0.0
1-2West Virginia (8.7)B12H83-87L0%0.0
1-5Texas (26.7)B12A60-57L0%0.0
1-9Oklahoma (3.9)B12A86-76L0%0.0
1-12Texas Tech (65.9)B12H83-70W100%0.0
1-16Iowa St. (17.3)B12H63-76L0%0.0
1-20Baylor (30.1)B12A79-72L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (139.1)B12H89-73W100%0.0
1-26West Virginia (8.7)B12A70-55L0%0.0
1-30Mississippi (111.4)SECH69-64W100%0.0
2-3Kansas (6.0)B12A77-59L0%0.0
2-6Oklahoma (3.9)B12H80-69W100%0.0
2-10Baylor (30.1)B12H0-053%0.9
2-13Oklahoma St. (139.1)B12A0-048%-0.6
2-17TCU (174.7)B12A0-068%5.0
2-20Kansas (6.0)B12H0-035%-4.3
2-22Texas (26.7)B12H0-054%1.0
2-27Iowa St. (17.3)B12A0-025%-7.4
3-2TCU (174.7)B12H0-086%11.7
3-5Texas Tech (65.9)B12A0-045%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3226.3156.4754.963.412.61
Iowa St.B122.814.1372.7368.851.281.56
TexasB122.664.1268.1861.910.970.98
BaylorB122.754.1271.4366.021.181.32
Oklahoma St.B122.664.0750.0045.630.00-0.36
TCUB120.584.0743.4838.19-0.08-0.96
West VirginiaB124.744.0780.9578.142.932.29
KansasB122.614.0780.9577.201.612.21
OklahomaB124.734.0790.0084.393.792.80
Texas TechB122.664.0761.9054.940.630.40
Texas A&MSEC2.421.8877.2777.321.321.03
MissouriSEC2.421.8036.3631.37-0.66-0.67
GeorgiaSEC2.411.8065.0058.710.720.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.381.7631.8236.36-0.86-0.48
MississippiSEC2.271.7568.1860.980.830.38
Coppin St.MEAC2.321.7215.7923.25-1.59-0.92
South Carolina St.MEAC2.281.7052.3855.270.110.18
North CarolinaACC2.221.6681.8277.981.410.93
ColumbiaIvy2.221.6470.0067.540.890.58
Colorado St.MWC2.171.6155.0052.220.220.07
North DakotaBSky2.171.6150.0051.970.000.06
Saint LouisA102.171.6138.1034.62-0.52-0.50
South DakotaSum2.171.6143.4842.71-0.28-0.24
VanderbiltSEC0.240.2956.5260.000.030.06
FloridaSEC0.290.2665.2266.090.090.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.239.5213.52-0.08-0.17
AuburnSEC0.190.2140.9136.61-0.04-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.240.2152.1755.930.010.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.2140.9140.65-0.03-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.2035.0035.98-0.04-0.06
LSUSEC0.250.1965.2260.270.070.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1820.8323.63-0.11-0.10
HowardMEAC0.150.1738.1040.73-0.04-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.1731.8236.14-0.09-0.05
HarvardIvy0.200.1635.0038.52-0.06-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.250.1672.7372.030.110.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.1677.2776.860.050.09
South CarolinaSEC0.190.1686.3679.150.140.09
KentuckySEC0.140.1673.9171.550.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.100.1647.8346.88-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.090.1665.2261.070.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1520.0026.74-0.06-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1428.5726.96-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1463.6462.140.040.03
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1454.1755.080.020.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1326.0927.82-0.07-0.06
RichmondA100.140.1354.5554.490.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1347.8350.15-0.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1345.4551.35-0.010.00
George MasonA100.140.1334.7834.15-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.190.1354.1749.270.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1240.9149.27-0.02-0.00
MontanaBSky0.110.1257.8962.290.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.1152.0050.250.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1139.1341.12-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1112.5012.85-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.150.1165.2259.750.050.02
LongwoodBSth0.150.1122.7324.97-0.08-0.05
WoffordSC0.190.1140.9145.38-0.04-0.01
HawaiiBW0.150.1184.2181.670.100.07
IllinoisB100.140.1145.8344.11-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.1159.0953.030.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.119.0917.09-0.04-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0952.3854.010.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.150.0957.1459.470.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.0929.1733.15-0.06-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0847.6252.07-0.010.00
CreightonBE0.150.0862.5059.780.040.02
WisconsinB100.160.0860.8755.840.030.01
UNLVMWC0.100.0850.0055.200.000.01
IowaB100.100.0882.6180.580.070.05
DuquesneA100.150.0863.6456.430.040.01
St. BonaventureA100.100.0871.4368.970.040.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0882.6178.890.060.05
FairfieldMAAC0.150.0854.1754.130.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.0856.5256.310.020.01
High PointBSth0.100.0855.0057.480.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.0883.3383.020.060.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0831.5831.80-0.02-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.100.0886.3685.030.070.06
ColoradoP120.100.0869.5765.330.040.02
NorthwesternB100.150.0866.6763.420.050.02
UMKCWAC0.090.0828.5732.71-0.04-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0842.8639.19-0.01-0.02
MemphisAmer0.150.0860.8760.770.030.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0818.7526.45-0.06-0.04
UCLAP120.100.0856.5253.240.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0856.5256.610.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0826.0929.20-0.05-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.090.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0815.0027.26-0.03-0.04
SyracuseACC0.090.0866.6762.560.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0875.0071.500.050.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0882.6178.050.060.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0654.5554.930.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.110.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.110.0665.0069.270.030.02
AkronMAC0.100.0681.8280.030.070.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.58-0.06-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0642.1145.73-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0655.0052.290.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0625.0033.21-0.05-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.47-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0663.6462.530.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0631.5831.05-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.100.0642.1140.16-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0631.5831.79-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.800.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.570.040.02
IUPUISum0.050.0640.0039.79-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.010.01
OaklandHorz0.100.0668.0067.970.040.02
PennIvy0.000.0638.8937.66-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0672.2274.710.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0628.0030.73-0.05-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0625.0022.76-0.05-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0645.0046.77-0.01-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0627.7829.14-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.50-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0673.6874.650.020.03
ClemsonACC0.100.0560.8760.240.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.100.0552.1751.590.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0587.5083.690.070.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0563.1658.790.020.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0576.1968.220.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.0573.9169.830.050.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.0522.7323.25-0.05-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0590.4886.880.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0521.0527.82-0.06-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0586.3682.380.040.03
Holy CrossPat0.050.0539.1338.34-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.0556.2556.100.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0547.6252.67-0.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.7837.15-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.0517.6529.24-0.06-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0565.2268.610.020.02
OregonP120.050.0582.6179.210.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0561.9056.420.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0545.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0570.5975.550.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0545.4554.11-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0572.7371.620.020.02
UtahP120.050.0569.5767.480.020.02
VCUA100.050.0573.9173.900.020.03
VillanovaBE0.100.0586.9686.370.070.04
Washington St.P120.100.0536.3632.00-0.03-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.0560.0057.960.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0582.6177.740.060.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0540.9139.36-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0530.4326.50-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.054.357.73-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0570.8370.840.020.02
ColgatePat0.000.0545.4546.10-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0573.9172.480.020.02
DukeACC0.000.0573.9170.040.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0552.6350.220.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0554.1750.930.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0570.8369.500.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0521.7423.40-0.05-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0542.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0550.0051.170.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0569.5766.220.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0539.1337.74-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0533.3335.09-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0539.1341.32-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0590.9186.130.000.04
StanfordP120.050.0550.0046.610.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0523.8127.69-0.05-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0565.2261.450.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0566.6770.540.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.6413.62-0.03-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0352.3847.040.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.880.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.44-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0310.0013.13-0.05-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0331.5837.72-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0315.0015.35-0.04-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0330.4332.35-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0363.6459.240.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0363.6460.940.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0343.4842.01-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
AmericanPat0.050.0330.4331.89-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.140.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0321.7423.32-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0361.9059.660.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0354.1752.340.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8641.97-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0359.0959.640.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.70-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.8763.000.000.01
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.250.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0356.5262.780.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.41-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0352.1751.940.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0338.8945.66-0.01-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.420.030.01
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.960.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.45-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0350.0052.350.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0372.0070.510.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.330.030.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0357.8956.100.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.810.030.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.710.020.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8276.740.000.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.03-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.840.010.01
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.67-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.34-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.160.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0328.5731.89-0.02-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02