Kansas St.

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	19.0
Current RPI:	19
Expected SOS:	40
Current SOS:	40
Current Record:	26-7
Expected Record:	26-7
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	48
Expected OOC SOS:	154

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-7	19.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	H	85-52	W	100%
11-12	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	79-55	W	100%
11-18	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	74-55	W	100%
11-21	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	N	66-63	W	100%
11-23	Michigan (20.0)	B10	N	71-57	L	0%
12-2	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	72-53	W	100%
12-8	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	62-65	W	100%
12-15	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	N	68-52	L	0%
12-18	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	78-69	W	100%
12-22	Florida (7.0)	SEC	H	67-61	W	100%
12-29	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	52-44	W	100%
12-31	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	70-50	W	100%
1-5	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	H	73-67	W	100%
1-12	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	64-65	W	100%
1-16	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	54-67	W	100%
1-19	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	69-60	W	100%
1-22	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	55-59	L	0%
1-26	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	A	73-67	L	0%
1-30	Texas (116.0)	B12	H	83-57	W	100%
2-2	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	A	50-52	W	100%
2-5	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	A	59-68	W	100%
2-9	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	79-70	W	100%
2-11	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	83-62	L	0%
2-16	Baylor (71.0)	B12	H	81-61	W	100%
2-18	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	H	71-61	W	100%
2-23	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	69-81	W	100%
2-25	Texas Tech (214.0)	B12	H	75-55	W	100%
3-2	Baylor (71.0)	B12	A	61-64	W	100%
3-5	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	H	79-68	W	100%
3-9	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	76-70	L	0%
3-14	Texas (116.0)	B12	N	66-49	W	100%
3-15	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	N	68-57	W	100%
3-16	Kansas (5.0)	B12	N	70-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Kansas St.	B12	26.50	26.50	78.32	78.32	15.01	15.01
Kansas	B12	5.50	5.50	83.87	83.87	3.73	3.73
Oklahoma St.	B12	5.47	5.47	79.31	79.31	3.21	3.21
Texas	B12	5.45	5.45	55.17	55.17	0.56	0.56
West Virginia	B12	4.08	4.08	43.33	43.33	-0.54	-0.54
Iowa St.	B12	4.07	4.07	67.74	67.74	1.45	1.45
Baylor	B12	4.07	4.07	58.62	58.62	0.70	0.70
Oklahoma	B12	4.04	4.04	68.97	68.97	1.53	1.53
Texas Tech	B12	4.04	4.04	37.93	37.93	-0.98	-0.98
Texas Christian	B12	4.00	4.00	34.48	34.48	-1.24	-1.24
Gonzaga	WCC	1.76	1.76	93.55	93.55	1.53	1.53
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.64	1.64	23.33	23.33	-0.87	-0.87
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.61	1.61	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
South Dakota	Sum	1.59	1.59	29.63	29.63	-0.65	-0.65
Lamar	Slnd	1.56	1.56	10.00	10.00	-1.25	-1.25
North Florida	ASun	1.56	1.56	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Michigan	B10	1.56	1.56	77.42	77.42	0.86	0.86
North Dakota	BSky	1.54	1.54	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	1.52	1.52	59.38	59.38	0.28	0.28
Florida	SEC	1.52	1.52	81.25	81.25	0.95	0.95
George Washington	A10	1.52	1.52	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Texas Southern	SWAC	1.52	1.52	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.22	0.22	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.21	0.21	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.17	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.17	0.17	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
IUPUI	Sum	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Utah	BSky	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Temple	A10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	BW	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00