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Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:95.6
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:15
Current SOS:40
Current Record:12-9
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:163



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1133.50.02%
19-1239.90.28%
18-1348.31.34%
17-1460.15.78%
16-1573.414.34%
15-1688.226.18%
14-17102.829.49%
13-18118.117.96%
12-19134.74.60%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern Utah (317.5)BSkyH98-68W100%0.0
11-17UMKC (288.2)WACH83-73W100%0.0
11-21Long Beach St. (80.8)BWA69-60L0%0.0
11-24Purdue (82.3)B10N88-79W100%0.0
11-25Arizona (5.4)P12N72-68L0%0.0
11-26Pittsburgh (108.6)ACCN70-47L0%0.0
12-2Nebraska Omaha (294.6)SumH84-66W100%0.0
12-6Tennessee (86.9)SECA65-64L0%0.0
12-9Bradley (280.2)MVCH50-47W100%0.0
12-14Savannah St. (326.5)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
12-20Texas A&M (54.2)SECN71-64W100%0.0
12-28Texas Southern (151.1)SWACH56-58L0%0.0
12-31Georgia (32.0)SECH46-50L0%0.0
1-3Oklahoma St. (38.6)B12A61-47L0%0.0
1-7TCU (115.2)B12H58-53W100%0.0
1-10Oklahoma (23.9)B12A63-66W100%0.0
1-14Texas Tech (194.4)B12H58-51W100%0.0
1-17Baylor (18.7)B12H63-61W100%0.0
1-20Iowa St. (25.2)B12A77-71L0%0.0
1-24Oklahoma St. (38.6)B12H63-53W100%0.0
1-27West Virginia (19.0)B12H59-65L0%0.0
1-31Kansas (3.7)B12A0-012%-12.9
2-4Texas Tech (194.4)B12A0-058%2.1
2-7Texas (25.7)B12H0-029%-6.0
2-11West Virginia (19.0)B12A0-012%-12.8
2-14Oklahoma (23.9)B12H0-025%-7.4
2-18TCU (115.2)B12A0-025%-7.5
2-21Baylor (18.7)B12A0-014%-12.1
2-23Kansas (3.7)B12H0-029%-6.0
2-28Iowa St. (25.2)B12H0-035%-4.2
3-7Texas (25.7)B12A0-012%-12.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.4126.3150.5742.560.30-3.91
BaylorB122.874.1377.7871.211.591.75
KansasB120.494.1085.0077.400.342.25
TCUB122.684.1073.6861.201.270.92
TexasB120.494.1070.0066.510.191.35
Iowa St.B122.754.1077.7868.481.531.52
Texas TechB122.754.0855.0041.370.27-0.70
West VirginiaB122.684.0884.2174.571.832.00
OklahomaB122.754.0768.4268.261.011.49
Oklahoma St.B125.004.0770.5961.752.060.96
TennesseeSEC2.501.7461.1152.600.560.09
Texas A&MSEC2.511.7277.7867.571.390.60
UMKCWAC2.511.7033.3339.78-0.84-0.35
Texas SouthernSWAC2.511.6942.1155.59-0.400.19
GeorgiaSEC2.381.6772.2265.331.060.51
BradleyMVC2.441.6630.0028.68-0.98-0.71
Long Beach St.BW2.381.6638.8950.29-0.530.01
Nebraska OmahaSum2.441.6438.8941.31-0.54-0.29
ArizonaP122.381.6190.0087.551.901.21
PittsburghACC2.381.6157.8950.480.380.02
PurdueB102.381.6165.0060.720.710.35
Savannah St.MEAC2.381.6117.6526.18-1.54-0.77
Southern UtahBSky2.381.6125.0028.89-1.19-0.68
South CarolinaSEC0.310.3050.0051.200.000.01
MissouriSEC0.490.3033.3330.18-0.16-0.12
LSUSEC0.310.2780.0070.790.180.11
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.360.2721.0533.09-0.21-0.09
VanderbiltSEC0.240.2152.6353.030.010.01
AuburnSEC0.180.2147.3738.48-0.01-0.05
KentuckySEC0.060.21100.0098.450.060.21
FloridaSEC0.120.1955.0055.300.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.190.1663.1658.860.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.250.1680.0072.660.150.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.250.1642.1135.02-0.04-0.05
MississippiSEC0.120.1665.0063.100.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.180.1631.5844.71-0.07-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1610.0015.23-0.15-0.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1428.5732.18-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.240.1465.0061.600.070.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.1457.1462.500.040.03
MarylandB100.240.1485.7177.600.170.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1450.0061.990.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.180.1357.8958.350.030.02
IndianaB100.240.1371.4366.440.100.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1328.5736.59-0.08-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.1340.0048.18-0.04-0.00
IowaB100.120.1365.0063.250.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.240.1359.0956.180.040.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.130.006.63-0.18-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1147.3749.55-0.01-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.130.1135.2941.48-0.04-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1135.2938.37-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.1161.1160.430.010.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.180.1122.2240.77-0.10-0.02
TulsaAmer0.180.1178.9573.600.110.05
LouisvilleACC0.190.1185.0078.450.130.06
North TexasCUSA0.180.1135.2933.17-0.05-0.04
Oregon St.P120.180.1168.4260.540.070.02
DrakeMVC0.120.1120.0021.30-0.07-0.06
UNLVMWC0.130.1155.0055.350.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.180.1152.9457.350.010.02
UCLAP120.120.1155.0052.200.010.00
WashingtonP120.120.1170.0063.190.050.03
George MasonA100.120.1129.4131.81-0.05-0.04
IllinoisB100.120.1161.9060.270.030.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1121.4339.73-0.07-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.5834.35-0.04-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.1147.0654.30-0.000.01
OaklandHorz0.180.1140.0043.68-0.04-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.1016.6721.96-0.04-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1047.3742.62-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.1055.0045.900.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.1061.1160.440.010.02
LafayettePat0.060.1057.8959.760.010.02
Michigan St.B100.060.1065.0063.410.020.03
StanfordP120.060.1075.0071.410.030.04
UtahP120.060.1083.3383.740.040.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0033.04-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0943.7552.25-0.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.0966.6768.890.060.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.0815.0023.69-0.09-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.130.085.5611.57-0.11-0.06
SeattleWAC0.130.0847.0649.50-0.01-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0827.7828.10-0.03-0.04
IPFWSum0.060.0835.2938.10-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.120.0838.1040.98-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.0826.3229.12-0.09-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0845.0044.02-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.120.0838.8937.23-0.03-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.0816.6723.31-0.08-0.04
UTSACUSA0.130.0843.7543.15-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.120.0871.4370.620.050.03
MercerSC0.190.0847.3751.58-0.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0882.3584.880.080.06
SamfordSC0.180.0836.3636.07-0.05-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.0825.0028.08-0.06-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0863.1657.290.020.01
LamarSlnd0.120.0837.5037.57-0.03-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.0890.0087.320.090.06
Arizona St.P120.120.0852.3853.760.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0828.5733.02-0.05-0.03
ColoradoP120.120.0852.6351.140.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.180.0895.0094.600.160.07
MinnesotaB100.120.0857.1454.370.020.01
New OrleansSlnd0.120.0823.0835.92-0.07-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.180.0875.0075.760.090.04
SyracuseACC0.060.0866.6758.780.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.085.2610.49-0.11-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0861.1159.740.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.120.0845.0037.54-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.060.0847.3738.08-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0645.0047.69-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.0652.9458.930.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.004.63-0.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0616.6723.18-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0672.2277.810.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0642.1147.16-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0664.7161.630.020.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0645.0047.79-0.01-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0631.2527.83-0.02-0.03
WinthropBSth0.130.0647.0651.86-0.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.130.0631.5830.47-0.05-0.02
MarquetteBE0.130.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.130.0623.5325.33-0.07-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0626.3236.50-0.03-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0647.3750.37-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.0657.8956.260.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0570.5973.610.020.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0570.0066.060.030.02
NebraskaB100.060.0560.0049.340.01-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.0533.3335.62-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.0542.1145.58-0.02-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0535.0034.45-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0550.0050.450.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0533.3331.74-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0545.4540.73-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0575.0069.810.030.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0563.1666.660.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0560.0060.080.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0590.4885.060.050.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0538.1036.84-0.03-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0575.0066.630.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0538.8936.54-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0590.0088.070.050.04
XavierBE0.130.0566.6765.800.040.02
BYUWCC0.120.0565.0067.660.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.120.0550.0046.850.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0525.0031.57-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0564.2967.500.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0552.3845.690.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0542.1137.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0523.5328.46-0.03-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.0550.0052.160.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0570.0065.320.000.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0540.0037.06-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0525.0037.83-0.03-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0573.6866.800.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0541.1842.82-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0536.8432.80-0.01-0.02
MichiganB100.110.0560.0052.380.020.00
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0552.3854.030.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0538.8943.44-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0590.9185.840.050.04
Ohio St.B100.000.0576.1976.580.000.03
OregonP120.110.0565.0058.730.030.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0563.1663.990.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0572.2268.860.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0525.0028.06-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0561.9062.460.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0547.6238.09-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0550.0055.540.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0566.6763.830.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0543.7545.80-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.060.0531.5837.72-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0573.6873.930.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0321.0530.50-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0368.4269.340.030.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.030.003.43-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0350.0053.490.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.0310.5319.81-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0344.4449.87-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0340.0038.72-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0341.1844.41-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5043.72-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0335.0031.76-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0354.5556.900.010.00
MontanaBSky0.070.0350.0053.220.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0316.6719.89-0.05-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0027.27-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0360.0052.530.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0357.8962.550.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0358.3365.200.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0361.1162.910.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0373.3372.260.030.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0363.1662.030.020.01
DaytonA100.060.0384.2179.480.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0358.8259.230.010.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0342.8642.74-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0350.0050.690.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0315.7918.45-0.04-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0365.0063.010.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0350.0054.890.000.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0344.4437.23-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0370.5975.630.030.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0347.3741.05-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0370.0063.300.030.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0363.1658.150.020.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0361.9066.000.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0352.9447.000.00-0.00
TroySB0.060.0331.2531.44-0.02-0.01
VCUA100.060.0385.0082.100.040.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0361.1156.280.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0344.4443.32-0.01-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0049.220.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0360.0052.320.010.00
DukeACC0.060.0385.0081.750.040.02
DuquesneA100.060.0327.7826.35-0.03-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0361.1166.610.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.060.0341.1842.32-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0347.3747.26-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0347.3749.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0315.7923.11-0.04-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.9576.520.000.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0352.6360.390.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0350.0043.540.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0366.6754.150.020.00
SMUAmer0.060.0380.0077.750.040.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0361.1156.090.010.00
USCP120.000.0347.3740.18-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0363.1668.500.010.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0094.050.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.8638.96-0.00-0.01