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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:53
Expected SOS:67
Current SOS:101
Current Record:15-5
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:143
Expected OOC SOS:326



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-513.50.02%
25-620.00.20%
24-725.01.66%
23-833.55.26%
22-941.713.51%
21-1050.623.18%
20-1160.125.11%
19-1271.318.87%
18-1384.69.05%
17-14100.02.69%
16-15118.40.42%
15-16128.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10American (314.5)PatH83-45W100%0.0
11-14UMKC (261.9)WACH72-51W100%0.0
11-17UC Irvine (175.4)BWH71-49W100%0.0
11-20Northern Arizona (316.2)BSkyH80-58W100%0.0
11-23Arizona St. (31.6)P12N90-92L0%0.0
11-24George Washington (199.0)A10N67-59W100%0.0
11-29Oral Roberts (219.5)SumH77-68W100%0.0
12-3Vanderbilt (140.3)SECA79-84W100%0.0
12-5USC Upstate (335.3)ASunH86-49W100%0.0
12-9Tulsa (127.8)AmerH54-61L0%0.0
12-16Southeast Missouri St. (242.9)OVCH89-71W100%0.0
12-20Washington St. (171.8)P12A65-68W100%0.0
12-29Iowa St. (112.4)B12A75-91W100%0.0
1-1West Virginia (18.9)B12H69-77L0%0.0
1-6Texas Tech (26.2)B12A74-58L0%0.0
1-10Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12H86-82W100%0.0
1-13Kansas (6.0)B12A73-72L0%0.0
1-16Oklahoma (22.3)B12H87-69W100%0.0
1-20TCU (23.4)B12H73-68W100%0.0
1-22Baylor (68.8)B12A83-90W100%0.0
1-27Georgia (68.0)SECH0-075%7.4
1-29Kansas (6.0)B12H0-034%-4.5
2-3West Virginia (18.9)B12A0-020%-9.4
2-7Texas (43.7)B12A0-038%-3.4
2-10Texas Tech (26.2)B12H0-048%-0.4
2-14Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12A0-049%-0.2
2-17Iowa St. (112.4)B12H0-078%8.5
2-21Texas (43.7)B12H0-061%3.0
2-24Oklahoma (22.3)B12A0-031%-5.4
2-27TCU (23.4)B12A0-032%-5.2
3-3Baylor (68.8)B12H0-059%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3026.3171.5962.1711.366.40
Oklahoma St.B122.964.1372.2256.011.310.50
West VirginiaB122.964.1078.9575.071.712.05
KansasB122.894.1083.3379.551.932.42
TCUB122.904.0978.9570.161.681.65
Iowa St.B122.894.0961.1148.730.64-0.10
TexasB120.524.0765.0059.140.160.74
Texas TechB122.834.0777.7871.471.571.75
BaylorB122.894.0761.1155.620.640.46
OklahomaB122.884.0782.3570.431.871.66
Arizona St.P122.761.7777.7875.331.540.90
TulsaAmer2.691.7552.6351.720.140.06
VanderbiltSEC2.571.7238.8936.76-0.57-0.45
Oral RobertsSum2.631.6931.5833.79-0.97-0.55
UMKCWAC2.641.6722.2225.68-1.46-0.81
GeorgiaSEC0.071.6766.6756.950.020.23
USC UpstateASun2.571.6711.7618.70-1.96-1.04
UC IrvineBW2.641.6731.5841.32-0.97-0.29
Northern ArizonaBSky2.631.6711.7615.84-2.01-1.14
AmericanPat2.561.6626.3226.96-1.21-0.77
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.571.6444.4445.05-0.29-0.16
Washington St.P122.501.6450.0042.860.00-0.23
George WashingtonA102.501.6147.3744.94-0.13-0.16
Wichita St.Amer0.330.2478.9577.380.190.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2225.0028.02-0.13-0.10
Texas A&MSEC0.130.2168.4263.970.050.06
ArkansasSEC0.130.1968.4264.160.050.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.260.1820.0040.93-0.16-0.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1873.6868.040.060.07
South DakotaSum0.260.1773.6872.400.120.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.260.1772.2272.970.110.08
OregonP120.140.1665.0063.810.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.1673.6871.600.030.07
StanfordP120.200.1655.0050.330.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.1672.2268.930.030.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.1668.4259.020.020.03
MissouriSEC0.130.1666.6763.150.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.190.1442.8635.22-0.03-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1445.0045.03-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1344.4446.01-0.02-0.01
USCP120.200.1371.4368.300.090.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.1317.6527.34-0.13-0.06
WashingtonP120.130.1370.0061.460.050.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1335.2940.46-0.04-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.1361.1151.910.010.01
NevadaMWC0.190.1385.7182.120.140.08
DenverSum0.190.1233.3336.47-0.06-0.03
MontanaBSky0.190.1170.5973.150.080.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.1116.6724.90-0.04-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.1152.9459.380.000.02
NJITASun0.130.1138.8942.58-0.03-0.02
IdahoBSky0.200.1164.7166.850.060.04
Idaho St.BSky0.200.1143.7540.91-0.03-0.02
ArizonaP120.140.1180.0078.940.080.06
CaliforniaP120.130.1136.8431.11-0.03-0.04
ColoradoP120.130.1160.0053.720.030.01
Oregon St.P120.070.1157.8950.860.010.00
UtahP120.130.1163.1659.720.030.02
TempleAmer0.130.1152.6351.740.010.00
XavierBE0.190.1185.7180.060.140.06
New HampshireAE0.130.1133.3340.10-0.04-0.02
BelmontOVC0.190.1171.4374.670.080.05
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1140.0043.34-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.1161.1153.190.010.01
NorthwesternB100.140.1155.0050.370.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.117.1414.82-0.06-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1131.5836.43-0.05-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.1052.6345.860.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.130.1040.0030.88-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.060.1060.0059.710.010.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.0957.8966.270.020.03
JacksonvilleASun0.140.0933.3333.76-0.05-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.0929.4133.20-0.06-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0883.3384.250.040.06
SeattleWAC0.130.0857.8954.500.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0826.3231.48-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.140.0875.0070.720.070.03
Montana St.BSky0.140.0850.0047.650.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.0852.9452.670.010.00
OaklandHorz0.130.0861.9065.150.030.02
PepperdineWCC0.130.0810.5318.34-0.10-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.130.0817.6519.29-0.08-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.0815.0020.28-0.09-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.070.0835.0026.13-0.02-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0856.2556.820.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.130.0845.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0890.4888.970.100.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0858.8262.830.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.087.6923.24-0.06-0.04
UC DavisBW0.130.0858.8262.450.020.02
UCLAP120.130.0865.0062.050.040.02
UTSACUSA0.130.0841.1839.66-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0852.6355.280.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0857.8953.220.010.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0889.4776.990.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0872.2258.880.030.01
SMUAmer0.060.0870.0070.610.030.03
UCFAmer0.060.0868.4260.830.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.130.0873.6869.660.060.03
FordhamA100.060.0831.5829.03-0.02-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.085.8819.39-0.12-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.0833.3340.35-0.04-0.02
Seton HallBE0.130.0875.0067.910.070.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0866.6768.750.020.03
VirginiaACC0.130.0894.7486.110.110.06
Fort WayneSum0.060.0652.6351.680.000.00
MinnesotaB100.130.0663.6457.610.040.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
StetsonASun0.070.0633.3336.93-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0670.0068.210.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.060.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.220.030.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.030.020.02
Penn St.B100.130.0661.9055.820.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0652.6358.610.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.130.0650.0050.860.000.00
ArmyPat0.060.0661.1160.440.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0650.0053.280.000.00
BucknellPat0.060.0661.9068.000.010.02
ColgatePat0.060.0650.0051.030.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0631.5832.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.060.0630.0032.58-0.03-0.02
LafayettePat0.060.0622.2227.46-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0638.8944.74-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0622.2228.66-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0623.5328.71-0.03-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.070.0670.5975.960.030.03
NavyPat0.060.0660.0055.160.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.0647.0654.68-0.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.75-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.77-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.430.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0568.4260.530.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.130.0525.0043.18-0.07-0.01
HowardMEAC0.130.0510.5326.29-0.10-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0547.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0531.5836.23-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0561.1158.710.020.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0578.9576.980.040.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0523.5328.20-0.03-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0552.6347.380.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0542.1132.46-0.01-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0568.7564.010.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0547.3746.09-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0547.6243.94-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.130.0565.0058.540.040.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0545.0047.06-0.01-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0544.4446.66-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0541.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0544.4450.08-0.010.00
PortlandWCC0.070.0527.7827.26-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0543.7549.11-0.01-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0531.5840.82-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0563.1657.870.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0517.6523.840.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0570.5969.630.030.02
WisconsinB100.070.0550.0046.270.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.130.0565.0065.330.040.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.130.0550.0051.640.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0565.0054.600.020.00
ButlerBE0.000.0566.6763.070.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0523.5325.63-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.059.5217.86-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0558.8261.440.010.01
DukeACC0.000.0589.4785.240.000.04
DuquesneA100.060.0570.0058.090.030.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0510.0019.620.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0537.5037.67-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0545.0041.29-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0580.9583.260.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0526.6729.12-0.03-0.02
MaineAE0.070.0510.5314.83-0.05-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0521.99-0.04-0.03
MichiganB100.000.0576.1970.800.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.26-0.07-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0563.6459.480.020.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0545.0048.57-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0511.1117.68-0.05-0.03
RichmondA100.060.0531.5834.35-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0550.0045.850.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0568.4261.280.020.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0566.6767.670.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0564.7160.010.020.01
WoffordSC0.070.0568.7563.660.020.01
YaleIvy0.060.0541.1847.61-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0358.8249.740.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0347.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0325.0031.44-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0322.2225.19-0.03-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0370.0068.290.030.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0373.6865.250.030.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0362.5058.710.020.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.390.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.08-0.06-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.200.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.350.020.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.690.020.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0365.0057.890.020.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0342.1144.98-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.780.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0358.8257.130.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0358.8263.210.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0316.6724.440.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.530.020.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.96-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0355.0052.480.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.01
VMISC0.060.0325.0024.14-0.03-0.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0364.7164.560.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.500.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.039.5217.120.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.550.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0378.9573.000.040.01
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.82-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0350.0054.900.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.15-0.04-0.02
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0325.0039.91-0.03-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0350.0048.730.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.070.0333.3334.10-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0352.9452.250.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0337.5046.70-0.02-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0377.7870.410.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0372.2274.730.030.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0352.9460.230.000.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.880.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0383.3381.450.040.02