live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:21
Current SOS:21
Current Record:17-16
Expected Record:17-16
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-12
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1692.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH80-53W100%0.0
11-16Columbia (132.0)IvyH81-71W100%0.0
11-20South Dakota (197.0)SumH93-72W100%0.0
11-23Missouri (222.0)SECN66-42W100%0.0
11-24North Carolina (5.0)ACCN80-70L0%0.0
11-29South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH68-66W100%0.0
12-4Georgia (62.0)SECA66-68W100%0.0
12-9Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH83-58W100%0.0
12-12Texas A&M (18.0)SECA78-68L0%0.0
12-19Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH61-56W100%0.0
12-22North Dakota (218.0)BSkyH63-49W100%0.0
12-29Saint Louis (206.0)A10H75-47W100%0.0
1-2West Virginia (10.0)B12H83-87L0%0.0
1-5Texas (27.0)B12A60-57L0%0.0
1-9Oklahoma (6.0)B12A86-76L0%0.0
1-12Texas Tech (36.0)B12H83-70W100%0.0
1-16Iowa St. (23.0)B12H63-76L0%0.0
1-20Baylor (25.0)B12A79-72L0%0.0
1-23Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H89-73W100%0.0
1-26West Virginia (10.0)B12A70-55L0%0.0
1-30Mississippi (96.0)SECH69-64W100%0.0
2-3Kansas (1.0)B12A77-59L0%0.0
2-6Oklahoma (6.0)B12H80-69W100%0.0
2-10Baylor (25.0)B12H72-82L0%0.0
2-13Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A58-55L0%0.0
2-16TCU (174.0)B12A49-63W100%0.0
2-20Kansas (1.0)B12H63-72L0%0.0
2-22Texas (27.0)B12H70-71L0%0.0
2-27Iowa St. (23.0)B12A80-61L0%0.0
3-2TCU (174.0)B12H79-54W100%0.0
3-5Texas Tech (36.0)B12A80-71L0%0.0
3-9Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12H75-71W100%0.0
3-10Kansas (1.0)B12N85-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3926.3945.8645.86-2.18-2.18
KansasB125.445.4486.6786.673.993.99
Oklahoma St.B125.345.3437.9337.93-1.29-1.29
West VirginiaB124.044.0475.0075.002.022.02
BaylorB124.044.0463.3363.331.081.08
TCUB123.973.9738.7138.71-0.90-0.90
Iowa St.B123.973.9763.3363.331.061.06
TexasB123.963.9660.0060.000.790.79
OklahomaB123.963.9680.0080.002.382.38
Texas TechB123.923.9262.0762.070.950.95
Texas A&MSEC1.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
GeorgiaSEC1.681.6861.2961.290.380.38
MissouriSEC1.681.6833.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.641.6430.0030.00-0.66-0.66
Coppin St.MEAC1.641.6425.0025.00-0.82-0.82
MississippiSEC1.631.6364.5264.520.470.47
South Carolina St.MEAC1.621.6256.6756.670.220.22
North CarolinaACC1.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
ColumbiaIvy1.541.5467.8667.860.550.55
Colorado St.MWC1.521.5251.6151.610.050.05
North DakotaBSky1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA101.521.5235.4835.48-0.44-0.44
South DakotaSum1.521.5241.3841.38-0.26-0.26
VanderbiltSEC0.280.2859.3859.380.050.05
FloridaSEC0.280.2857.5857.580.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC0.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Delaware St.MEAC0.200.2016.6716.67-0.13-0.13
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1924.2424.24-0.10-0.10
ArkansasSEC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
George MasonA100.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
HowardMEAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
MinnesotaB100.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
WashingtonP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1444.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
TowsonCAA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
BradleyMVC0.100.1012.9012.90-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0764.2964.290.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
ColoradoP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.040.0421.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.040.0469.7069.700.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0431.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.040.0451.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
StetsonASun0.040.0426.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
PortlandWCC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0235.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01