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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:51.0
Current RPI:51
Expected SOS:28
Current SOS:28
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:143



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1251.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH58-60L0%0.0
11-13Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH71-63W100%0.0
11-17Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH71-58W100%0.0
11-21Charlotte (151.0)CUSAN61-68L0%0.0
11-22Georgetown (69.0)BEN90-63L0%0.0
11-24Long Beach St. (166.0)BWN38-52W100%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH87-54W100%0.0
12-5Mississippi (94.0)SECH61-58W100%0.0
12-10South Dakota (255.0)SumH64-62W100%0.0
12-15Troy (285.0)SBH72-43W100%0.0
12-21Gonzaga (20.0)WCCN72-62W100%0.0
12-28Tulane (223.0)CUSAN72-41W100%0.0
12-31George Washington (29.0)A10H72-55W100%0.0
1-4Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12H74-71W100%0.0
1-7TCU (212.0)B12A47-65W100%0.0
1-11Kansas (3.0)B12A86-60L0%0.0
1-14Oklahoma (26.0)B12H72-66W100%0.0
1-18West Virginia (88.0)B12H78-56W100%0.0
1-21Texas (36.0)B12A67-64L0%0.0
1-25Iowa St. (7.0)B12A81-75L0%0.0
1-28Texas Tech (121.0)B12H66-58W100%0.0
2-1West Virginia (88.0)B12A81-71L0%0.0
2-8Texas (36.0)B12H74-57W100%0.0
2-10Kansas (3.0)B12H85-82W100%0.0
2-15Baylor (30.0)B12A87-73L0%0.0
2-19TCU (212.0)B12H65-53W100%0.0
2-22Oklahoma (26.0)B12A86-73L0%0.0
2-25Texas Tech (121.0)B12A56-60W100%0.0
3-1Iowa St. (7.0)B12H80-73W100%0.0
3-3Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A77-61L0%0.0
3-8Baylor (30.0)B12H74-76L0%0.0
3-13Iowa St. (7.0)B12N91-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3826.3859.6859.685.115.11
Iowa St.B125.565.5680.0080.003.343.34
BaylorB124.204.2064.5264.521.221.22
KansasB124.104.1074.1974.191.981.98
Oklahoma St.B124.054.0564.5264.521.181.18
TexasB124.054.0570.9770.971.701.70
Texas TechB124.034.0346.6746.67-0.27-0.27
West VirginiaB124.024.0253.3353.330.270.27
OklahomaB124.004.0073.3373.331.861.86
TCUB123.993.9925.9325.93-1.92-1.92
Long Beach St.BW3.123.1246.4346.43-0.22-0.22
Central ArkansasSlnd1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
Oral RobertsSlnd1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
TroySB1.621.6232.1432.14-0.58-0.58
GonzagaWCC1.611.6184.3884.381.111.11
GeorgetownBE1.611.6153.3353.330.110.11
MississippiSEC1.591.5959.3859.380.300.30
TulaneCUSA1.591.5951.6151.610.050.05
CharlotteCUSA1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
George WashingtonA101.561.5677.4277.420.860.86
Northern ColoradoBSky1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
South DakotaSum1.561.5634.6234.62-0.48-0.48
TulsaCUSA0.260.2663.6463.640.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.240.2453.5753.570.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.2114.8114.81-0.15-0.15
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2078.7978.790.120.12
BYUWCC0.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
George MasonA100.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1693.1093.100.140.14
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
North TexasCUSA0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
AlabamaSEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1441.1841.18-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Louisiana MonroeSB0.120.1234.6234.62-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.120.1236.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
DaytonA100.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
UC DavisBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.100.1022.2222.22-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1017.8617.86-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
PurdueB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
RutgersAmer0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01