live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:77.0
Current RPI:124
Expected SOS:65
Current SOS:289
Current Record:7-1
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-511.70.03%
25-618.90.12%
24-723.60.60%
23-829.01.71%
22-935.84.68%
21-1044.88.99%
20-1154.914.05%
19-1266.617.99%
18-1379.718.33%
17-1494.215.10%
16-15109.610.43%
15-16125.05.19%
14-17141.91.83%
13-18161.80.68%
12-19175.40.21%
11-20192.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Western Illinois (337.0)SumH82-55W100%0.0
11-15Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumH81-68W100%0.0
11-20Hampton (315.2)MEACH89-67W100%0.0
11-22Robert Morris (241.7)NECH61-40W100%0.0
11-25Boston College (233.9)ACCN54-72W100%0.0
11-26Maryland (85.4)B10N69-68L0%0.0
11-30Green Bay (148.5)HorzH80-61W100%0.0
12-3Saint Louis (286.9)A10A53-84W100%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH0-099%30.0
12-10Washington St. (225.1)P12N0-089%14.8
12-17Colorado St. (95.8)MWCN0-073%7.3
12-21Gardner Webb (192.4)BSthH0-094%18.6
12-30Texas (118.9)B12H0-074%7.7
1-3Kansas (7.6)B12A0-016%-12.2
1-7Oklahoma (79.1)B12H0-064%4.3
1-10Texas Tech (70.7)B12A0-037%-4.0
1-14Baylor (8.1)B12H0-038%-3.6
1-18Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12A0-037%-4.0
1-21West Virginia (11.6)B12H0-022%-9.1
1-24Iowa St. (32.0)B12A0-022%-9.4
1-28Tennessee (130.0)SECA0-062%3.7
2-1TCU (45.1)B12H0-059%2.7
2-4Baylor (8.1)B12A0-020%-9.9
2-6Kansas (7.6)B12H0-031%-5.9
2-11West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-010%-15.4
2-15Iowa St. (32.0)B12H0-040%-3.2
2-18Texas (118.9)B12A0-055%1.4
2-22Oklahoma St. (58.4)B12H0-058%2.3
2-25Oklahoma (79.1)B12A0-044%-1.9
3-1TCU (45.1)B12A0-038%-3.6
3-4Texas Tech (70.7)B12H0-058%2.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1228.4926.3284.3856.8819.593.62
Iowa St.B120.004.1071.4367.970.001.47
Oklahoma St.B120.394.1071.4354.420.170.36
KansasB120.004.0887.5075.810.002.10
TexasB120.004.0857.1438.890.00-0.91
Texas TechB120.004.0887.5062.680.001.03
West VirginiaB120.004.0885.7183.640.002.74
BaylorB120.004.07100.0077.010.002.20
OklahomaB120.004.0771.4348.510.00-0.12
TCUB120.004.07100.0062.410.001.01
Nebraska OmahaSum6.251.7350.0057.130.000.25
Western IllinoisSum6.251.670.0017.37-6.25-1.09
HamptonMEAC6.601.6716.6744.31-4.40-0.19
MarylandB106.251.6785.7157.934.460.26
Gardner WebbBSth0.001.6433.3353.81-0.000.13
Robert MorrisNEC6.701.6425.0043.10-3.35-0.23
Boston CollegeACC6.251.6166.6730.782.08-0.62
Colorado St.MWC0.001.6171.4361.730.000.38
Green BayHorz6.251.6150.0053.800.000.12
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.001.6114.2932.34-0.00-0.57
Saint LouisA106.251.6133.3324.58-2.08-0.82
TennesseeSEC0.001.6140.0041.24-0.00-0.28
Washington St.P120.001.6142.8629.62-0.00-0.66
Oral RobertsSum0.000.230.0022.31-0.00-0.13
AuburnSEC0.000.2185.7157.450.000.03
RichmondA101.630.1950.0048.210.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.1657.1452.370.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.1677.7876.040.000.08
UNLVMWC0.000.1662.5043.800.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1675.0086.710.000.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1650.0066.300.000.05
UMKCWAC0.450.1662.5052.330.110.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1657.1452.030.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0025.23-0.00-0.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.1611.1148.19-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.450.1437.5037.74-0.11-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.1475.0062.620.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.1385.7166.190.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.130.0038.27-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.1242.8645.01-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.1271.4370.210.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5051.64-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1257.1458.940.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1250.0046.020.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1225.0039.59-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.110.0018.64-0.00-0.07
WinthropBSth0.000.1150.0071.070.000.05
CampbellBSth0.000.1142.8639.20-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.390.1175.0049.180.20-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1120.0021.80-0.00-0.06
RadfordBSth0.000.1128.5734.28-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1157.1467.260.000.04
OregonP120.000.1175.0072.250.000.05
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.890.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1157.1453.990.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1166.6758.060.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1142.8650.06-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1112.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.110.0023.69-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.58-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.1140.0058.82-0.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1150.0046.240.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1187.5081.960.000.07
IllinoisB100.000.1162.5050.710.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.1187.5082.800.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.450.1057.1451.790.060.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1025.0043.41-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1050.0059.920.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.1087.5078.510.000.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.970.0957.1450.080.140.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0928.5732.62-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6744.34-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0833.3327.06-0.00-0.04
USCP120.450.08100.0076.680.450.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.080.0034.47-0.45-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0850.0041.490.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE1.280.0828.5738.15-0.55-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0866.6766.860.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0866.6740.030.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0875.0059.790.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0885.7177.150.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.0842.8638.17-0.05-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.080.0034.27-0.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0840.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6739.20-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.450.0875.0071.470.220.03
VMISC0.000.080.0016.78-0.00-0.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0887.5075.240.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.390.0855.5647.890.04-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.08100.0091.920.000.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0850.0046.410.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0871.4354.860.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.590.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0875.0066.100.000.03
VCUA100.000.0875.0073.060.000.04
George MasonA100.000.0862.5046.900.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.490.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.170.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.460.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0066.170.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
TowsonCAA1.180.0842.8653.19-0.170.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0825.0029.54-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0871.4363.170.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0888.8978.400.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0844.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0842.8637.34-0.06-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0837.5033.74-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.910.0614.2931.35-0.65-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.520.0620.0022.75-0.31-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.450.0628.5733.77-0.19-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0037.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.450.0650.0056.740.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.450.0671.4356.250.190.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0628.5731.44-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0660.0069.120.000.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0086.690.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0662.5051.790.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0525.0022.93-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0550.0041.990.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0540.0054.54-0.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.050.0013.46-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0575.0066.370.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0542.8627.96-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0512.5030.39-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.360.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0533.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.050.0019.67-0.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0557.1471.940.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.760.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0542.8650.11-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0575.0055.500.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0587.5068.020.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0048.030.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0533.3352.84-0.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0520.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.040.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.05100.0078.850.000.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0575.0061.490.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0550.0030.350.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0512.5023.93-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0550.0038.050.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.050.0034.81-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.0587.5070.890.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0585.7145.370.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0557.1436.010.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0525.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0533.3332.92-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.490.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0550.0050.840.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.78-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.050.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0512.5029.15-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0557.1454.360.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0566.6755.540.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0571.4355.820.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0516.6729.81-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0525.0034.40-0.00-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0557.1458.840.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0533.3330.44-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0077.380.000.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0537.5052.01-0.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0571.4370.390.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0514.2926.74-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3339.94-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0571.4366.700.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0575.0064.920.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0562.5067.390.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.990.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0533.3354.47-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0575.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0528.5723.12-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.520.0342.8630.92-0.07-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.520.0342.8638.63-0.07-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0377.7849.900.25-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
RiderMAAC0.450.0350.0048.810.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.450.0333.3346.01-0.15-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.030.0033.85-0.45-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.450.0328.5741.52-0.19-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.450.0350.0061.240.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0375.0070.180.000.01
PacificWCC0.450.0342.8646.14-0.06-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.450.0337.5047.91-0.11-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6757.300.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0312.5033.04-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0357.1450.420.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.450.0342.8647.11-0.06-0.00
BucknellPat0.350.0366.6766.340.120.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.450.0362.5066.900.110.01
DartmouthIvy0.450.030.0020.55-0.45-0.02
DePaulBE0.350.0366.6735.430.12-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0371.4359.880.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.350.0342.8666.67-0.050.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
PennIvy0.350.0333.3356.57-0.120.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0056.590.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.450.0362.5056.520.110.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.450.030.0024.64-0.45-0.01