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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Kansas St.

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:100.0
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:18
Current SOS:18
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:186
Expected OOC SOS:155



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17100.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH98-68W100%0.0
11-17UMKC (295.0)WACH83-73W100%0.0
11-21Long Beach St. (111.0)BWA69-60L0%0.0
11-24Purdue (55.0)B10N88-79W100%0.0
11-25Arizona (5.0)P12N72-68L0%0.0
11-26Pittsburgh (76.0)ACCN70-47L0%0.0
12-2Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH84-66W100%0.0
12-6Tennessee (96.0)SECA65-64L0%0.0
12-9Bradley (288.0)MVCH50-47W100%0.0
12-14Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH73-53W100%0.0
12-20Texas A&M (67.0)SECH71-64W100%0.0
12-28Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH56-58L0%0.0
12-31Georgia (38.0)SECH46-50L0%0.0
1-3Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12A61-47L0%0.0
1-7TCU (131.0)B12H58-53W100%0.0
1-10Oklahoma (18.0)B12A63-66W100%0.0
1-14Texas Tech (183.0)B12H58-51W100%0.0
1-17Baylor (10.0)B12H63-61W100%0.0
1-20Iowa St. (9.0)B12A77-71L0%0.0
1-24Oklahoma St. (49.0)B12H63-53W100%0.0
1-27West Virginia (24.0)B12H59-65L0%0.0
1-31Kansas (2.0)B12A68-57L0%0.0
2-4Texas Tech (183.0)B12A64-47L0%0.0
2-7Texas (42.0)B12H57-61L0%0.0
2-11West Virginia (24.0)B12A76-72L0%0.0
2-14Oklahoma (18.0)B12H59-56W100%0.0
2-18TCU (131.0)B12A69-55L0%0.0
2-21Baylor (10.0)B12A69-42L0%0.0
2-23Kansas (2.0)B12H70-63W100%0.0
2-28Iowa St. (9.0)B12H70-69W100%0.0
3-7Texas (42.0)B12A62-49L0%0.0
3-11TCU (131.0)B12N65-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kansas St.B1226.3126.3141.1341.13-4.67-4.67
TCUB125.535.5353.3353.330.370.37
KansasB124.144.1478.1278.122.332.33
Iowa St.B124.124.1277.4277.422.262.26
BaylorB124.094.0973.3373.331.911.91
TexasB124.074.0758.0658.060.660.66
OklahomaB124.044.0473.3373.331.891.89
West VirginiaB123.993.9970.0070.001.601.60
Texas TechB123.993.9940.0040.00-0.80-0.80
Oklahoma St.B123.993.9957.1457.140.570.57
TennesseeSEC1.681.6848.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Texas A&MSEC1.661.6666.6766.670.550.55
UMKCWAC1.641.6440.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6463.6463.640.450.45
BradleyMVC1.631.6325.8125.81-0.79-0.79
GeorgiaSEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Nebraska OmahaSum1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
ArizonaP121.561.5690.9190.911.281.28
PittsburghACC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
PurdueB101.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5625.0025.00-0.78-0.78
Southern UtahBSky1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
South CarolinaSEC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.290.2943.7543.75-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.270.2725.8125.81-0.13-0.13
LSUSEC0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
AuburnSEC0.220.2241.1841.18-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.220.2258.0658.060.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
KentuckySEC0.190.19100.00100.000.190.19
MississippiSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1618.7518.75-0.10-0.10
AlabamaSEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
MarylandB100.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
IndianaB100.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
DrakeMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
HawaiiBW0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UNLVMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
OaklandHorz0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
UtahP120.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0727.2727.27-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
SyracuseACC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0790.9190.910.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
FurmanSC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
LipscombASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
TroySB0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01