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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:350.3
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:351
Current Record:1-15
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-19
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20340.50.04%
8-21343.60.21%
7-22345.61.22%
6-23348.15.67%
5-24349.414.07%
4-25350.324.50%
3-26350.829.73%
2-27350.918.72%
1-28351.05.83%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Missouri St. (161.4)MVCA96-62L0%0.0
11-13Missouri (255.5)SECA99-44L0%0.0
11-17Tennessee Tech (279.8)OVCA95-61L0%0.0
11-21Southern Miss (331.1)CUSAA63-55L0%0.0
11-26Murray St. (193.9)OVCA91-54L0%0.0
11-29UAB (126.4)CUSAA75-45L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee Tech (279.8)OVCH74-79L0%0.0
12-10Troy (196.5)SBA88-59L0%0.0
12-14Georgia St. (129.8)SBA94-79L0%0.0
12-22Bowling Green (257.3)MACA74-61L0%0.0
12-29Western Michigan (209.5)MACA80-50L0%0.0
1-2Jackson St. (291.3)SWACH51-63L0%0.0
1-4Grambling St. (343.3)SWACH67-69L0%0.0
1-7Mississippi Valley St. (325.8)SWACA76-79W100%0.0
1-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.3)SWACA81-65L0%0.0
1-14Alabama St. (338.3)SWACH55-57L0%0.0
1-21Southern (266.0)SWACH0-015%-11.4
1-23Alcorn St. (307.0)SWACH0-027%-6.9
1-28Prairie View A&M (294.1)SWACA0-012%-13.2
1-30Texas Southern (110.9)SWACA0-02%-24.0
2-4Mississippi Valley St. (325.8)SWACH0-040%-2.9
2-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.3)SWACH0-044%-1.6
2-11Alabama St. (338.3)SWACA0-019%-9.7
2-18Southern (266.0)SWACA0-06%-17.6
2-20Alcorn St. (307.0)SWACA0-012%-13.1
2-25Prairie View A&M (294.1)SWACH0-027%-7.0
2-27Texas Southern (110.9)SWACH0-05%-17.8
3-2Jackson St. (291.3)SWACA0-09%-14.8
3-4Grambling St. (343.3)SWACA0-027%-6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.6326.4610.2913.89-21.15-19.11
SouthernSWAC0.634.4937.5048.27-0.16-0.16
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.404.4412.5020.70-2.55-2.60
Alabama St.SWAC3.594.4313.3323.27-2.63-2.37
Jackson St.SWAC3.324.4326.6741.61-1.55-0.74
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.314.4111.7622.47-2.53-2.43
Texas SouthernSWAC0.204.4150.0064.220.001.25
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.204.4117.6532.08-0.13-1.58
Grambling St.SWAC3.224.4020.0025.16-1.93-2.18
Alcorn St.SWAC0.374.3921.4332.87-0.21-1.50
Tennessee TechOVC6.343.5423.5328.40-3.35-1.53
UABCUSA3.311.9058.8263.090.580.50
TroySB3.411.8743.7546.34-0.43-0.14
Southern MissCUSA3.221.8120.0019.44-1.93-1.11
Murray St.OVC3.381.8147.0654.13-0.200.15
Bowling GreenMAC3.211.7831.2532.90-1.20-0.61
Georgia St.SB3.221.7850.0054.360.000.16
Western MichiganMAC3.121.7526.6734.63-1.46-0.54
MissouriSEC3.121.7225.0023.38-1.56-0.92
Missouri St.MVC3.121.7261.1158.210.690.28
Louisiana TechCUSA0.290.3464.7169.700.090.13
OhioMAC0.260.2466.6767.550.090.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.430.2452.6352.920.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.350.2437.5034.55-0.09-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.2158.8261.440.060.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.360.2141.1846.18-0.06-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.260.2156.2551.810.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.280.2047.0648.10-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.160.1961.1147.020.04-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.260.1844.4443.57-0.03-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1831.5832.58-0.07-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1861.1163.070.040.05
BaylorB120.100.1894.1280.880.090.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.330.1831.5835.67-0.12-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.1857.8957.540.010.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.1847.3745.06-0.01-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.190.1864.7156.100.060.02
DrakeMVC0.180.1729.4127.72-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.200.1525.0028.40-0.10-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.180.1555.5660.070.020.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.1583.3383.150.190.10
South AlabamaSB0.290.1543.7541.41-0.04-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1575.0074.470.000.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1535.2941.48-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1543.7538.29-0.01-0.03
LipscombASun0.420.1544.4450.48-0.050.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1562.5062.710.030.04
RiceCUSA0.090.1558.8264.790.020.04
Little RockSB0.090.1556.2551.110.010.00
Texas St.SB0.090.1553.3345.980.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1452.6347.720.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1468.7570.270.030.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.1261.1159.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1252.9455.050.010.01
TulaneAmer0.190.1222.2220.60-0.11-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1262.5063.260.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.1222.2223.82-0.14-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1222.2227.15-0.09-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.200.1218.7524.05-0.12-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.200.1262.5060.090.050.02
AuburnSEC0.280.1266.6755.390.090.01
HawaiiBW0.280.1243.7546.21-0.04-0.01
AkronMAC0.190.1283.3376.940.130.06
ToledoMAC0.190.1252.9452.870.010.01
LSUSEC0.190.1252.9438.780.01-0.03
Michigan St.B100.250.1263.1657.700.070.02
TCUB120.100.1276.4763.630.050.03
SeattleWAC0.180.1140.0037.08-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.090.1063.1660.550.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.0970.5958.250.080.01
Old DominionCUSA0.200.0961.1162.280.040.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0928.5731.47-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0943.7543.71-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.180.0973.6867.200.090.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.0960.0072.810.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.180.0925.0029.15-0.09-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.200.0958.8264.380.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0964.7165.930.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0911.7621.45-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0920.0026.44-0.05-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.170.0977.7878.460.090.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0961.1155.030.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.0953.3356.530.010.01
FurmanSC0.250.0952.9458.360.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0960.0053.460.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.160.0947.0648.42-0.01-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0937.5044.96-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.180.0952.6348.070.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0988.8987.310.070.06
James MadisonCAA0.100.0926.3229.57-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.090.0889.4784.510.070.06
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0888.8986.560.070.06
CaliforniaP120.000.0768.4264.450.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0752.9450.600.000.00
DuquesneA100.100.0647.3741.47-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.0647.3741.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0612.5019.98-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0647.0641.67-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.060.0014.44-0.10-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.0663.1658.020.030.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0665.0055.280.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0625.0031.85-0.05-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3333.28-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.100.0682.3576.300.060.03
Western CarolinaSC0.100.0623.5321.80-0.05-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.190.0661.1156.230.040.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0643.7543.70-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.180.0616.6723.07-0.12-0.03
Green BayHorz0.180.0652.9450.950.010.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.0640.0051.38-0.040.00
UMKCWAC0.180.0638.8939.92-0.04-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0637.5037.69-0.02-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.0627.7832.97-0.04-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0616.6720.43-0.07-0.04
OaklandHorz0.190.0672.2274.630.080.03
AlabamaSEC0.090.0664.7157.700.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0677.7870.290.050.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0636.8433.55-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.170.0616.6718.29-0.12-0.04
DenverSum0.090.0657.8955.950.010.01
DePaulBE0.160.0642.1130.39-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0658.8254.690.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0664.7156.510.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0668.4268.060.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.160.0633.3335.90-0.05-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0677.7862.260.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0646.6747.34-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0657.8958.030.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0635.2939.22-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0652.9450.580.010.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0616.6713.65-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.090.0640.0045.18-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0652.9451.020.000.00
USCP120.170.0680.0071.930.100.03
UtahP120.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0678.9582.980.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0683.3381.320.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0617.6529.60-0.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.090.0664.7166.910.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.06100.0097.320.090.05
IndianaB100.090.0668.4264.610.030.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0664.7161.830.030.01
La SalleA100.000.0668.7564.060.000.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0647.0651.38-0.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0684.2179.280.000.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0678.9569.160.050.02
UMass LowellAE0.090.0640.0040.47-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0683.3380.700.060.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.0389.4779.540.080.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0363.1660.390.030.01
NJITASun0.100.0338.8942.49-0.02-0.00
PurdueB100.100.0378.9576.890.060.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0331.5833.41-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.100.0362.5063.120.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0321.0528.89-0.06-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0326.3232.63-0.05-0.01
UCLAP120.100.0395.0089.690.090.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0388.8986.040.080.02
VillanovaBE0.100.0394.7489.270.090.02
WashingtonP120.100.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0341.1837.57-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.090.0320.0024.53-0.06-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0352.9453.560.010.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7874.930.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0364.7158.520.030.00
IllinoisB100.090.0361.1153.360.020.00
KansasB120.090.0394.4481.800.080.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0388.8987.510.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0337.5044.55-0.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0318.7535.73-0.06-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0364.7162.600.020.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0325.0034.04-0.05-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0322.2229.94-0.05-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0346.6738.45-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0382.3574.990.000.01
South DakotaSum0.090.0355.0054.820.010.00
South FloridaAmer0.090.0335.2928.97-0.03-0.01
TexasB120.090.0338.8935.38-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0377.7877.270.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0344.4442.60-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0364.7157.710.030.00
XavierBE0.090.0372.2267.680.040.01