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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:271.0
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:331
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC Record:1-7
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:75



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16271.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9New Mexico (12.0)MWCA88-52L0%0.0
11-17Western Michigan (66.0)MACA73-69L0%0.0
11-19Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA82-68L0%0.0
11-25Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH69-76L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA65-66W100%0.0
12-14Ohio (87.0)MACA72-47L0%0.0
12-21Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA68-47L0%0.0
12-29UAB (152.0)CUSAA69-57L0%0.0
1-4Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA61-68W100%0.0
1-6Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA58-70W100%0.0
1-11Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACH64-72L0%0.0
1-13Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH68-59W100%0.0
1-18Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA67-58L0%0.0
1-25Southern (171.0)SWACA66-52L0%0.0
1-27Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA70-64L0%0.0
2-1Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH63-62W100%0.0
2-3Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH67-55W100%0.0
2-8Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACA64-61L0%0.0
2-10Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA82-91W100%0.0
2-15Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH68-65W100%0.0
2-22Southern (171.0)SWACH62-70L0%0.0
2-24Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH56-64L0%0.0
3-1Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA65-72W100%0.0
3-3Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA79-58L0%0.0
3-6Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH72-59W100%0.0
3-8Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH80-63W100%0.0
3-13Arkansas Pine Bluff (264.0)SWACN50-69W100%0.0
3-14Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACN49-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.6126.6146.7746.77-1.72-1.72
Prairie View A&MSWAC6.616.6130.0030.00-2.64-2.64
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC6.386.3834.6234.62-1.96-1.96
Texas SouthernSWAC4.884.8856.6756.670.650.65
Alabama St.SWAC4.804.8057.6957.690.740.74
Grambling St.SWAC4.794.7916.0016.00-3.26-3.26
Alcorn St.SWAC4.754.7526.9226.92-2.19-2.19
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.744.7422.2222.22-2.63-2.63
SouthernSWAC4.744.7451.8551.850.180.18
Jackson St.SWAC4.734.7337.9337.93-1.14-1.14
Jacksonville St.OVC2.032.0325.0025.00-1.02-1.02
Western MichiganMAC1.951.9570.0070.000.780.78
Tennessee St.OVC1.931.9314.2914.29-1.38-1.38
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.911.9170.0070.000.760.76
Missouri St.MVC1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
OhioMAC1.841.8465.6265.620.580.58
New MexicoMWC1.821.8281.2581.251.141.14
UABCUSA1.811.8153.5753.570.130.13
Texas A&MSEC0.260.2653.1253.120.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1973.5373.530.090.09
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1768.9768.970.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
MarquetteBE0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
ToledoMAC0.140.1481.2581.250.090.09
AkronMAC0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
HamptonMEAC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
FIUCUSA0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Oregon St.P120.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0980.6580.650.050.05
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00