live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Alabama A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:351.0
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:348
Current Record:2-27
Expected Record:2-27
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-22
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:351
Expected OOC SOS:332



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
2-27351.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA96-62L0%0.0
11-13Missouri (257.0)SECA99-44L0%0.0
11-17Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA95-61L0%0.0
11-21Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA63-55L0%0.0
11-26Murray St. (230.0)OVCA91-54L0%0.0
11-29UAB (201.0)CUSAA75-45L0%0.0
12-3Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH74-79L0%0.0
12-10Troy (147.0)SBA88-59L0%0.0
12-14Georgia St. (104.0)SBA94-79L0%0.0
12-22Bowling Green (225.0)MACA74-61L0%0.0
12-29Western Michigan (173.0)MACA80-50L0%0.0
1-2Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH51-63L0%0.0
1-4Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH67-69L0%0.0
1-7Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA76-79W100%0.0
1-9Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA81-65L0%0.0
1-14Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH55-57L0%0.0
1-21Southern (320.0)SWACH52-53L0%0.0
1-23Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH70-81L0%0.0
1-28Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA70-65L0%0.0
1-30Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA92-47L0%0.0
2-4Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH66-68L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH49-65L0%0.0
2-11Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA97-89L0%0.0
2-18Southern (320.0)SWACA77-64L0%0.0
2-20Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA74-59L0%0.0
2-25Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH87-74W100%0.0
2-27Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH64-74L0%0.0
3-2Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA72-64L0%0.0
3-4Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA78-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Alabama A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Alabama A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Alabama A&MSWAC26.3826.387.877.87-22.23-22.23
SouthernSWAC4.554.5539.2939.29-0.98-0.98
Texas SouthernSWAC4.544.5465.6265.621.421.42
Alcorn St.SWAC4.514.5148.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Grambling St.SWAC4.464.4639.2939.29-0.96-0.96
Jackson St.SWAC4.434.4337.0437.04-1.15-1.15
Alabama St.SWAC4.434.4317.8617.86-2.85-2.85
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.424.4220.0020.00-2.65-2.65
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.414.4134.4834.48-1.37-1.37
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.384.3814.2914.29-3.13-3.13
Tennessee TechOVC3.563.5628.5728.57-1.53-1.53
TroySB1.891.8957.5857.580.290.29
UABCUSA1.891.8948.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Murray St.OVC1.871.8743.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Southern MissCUSA1.811.8121.4321.43-1.03-1.03
Georgia St.SB1.801.8058.6258.620.310.31
Bowling GreenMAC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Western MichiganMAC1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
MissouriSEC1.721.7222.5822.58-0.95-0.95
Missouri St.MVC1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.340.3467.7467.740.120.12
Miami OHMAC0.250.2530.0030.00-0.10-0.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
OhioMAC0.230.2363.3363.330.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.200.2053.5753.570.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2061.2961.290.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.190.1961.7661.760.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1768.9768.970.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
DrakeMVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Texas St.SB0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
UTSACUSA0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
ToledoMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Little RockSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
SeattleWAC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00