Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Click the link at the top for the simulation results that exclude conference tournament forecasts.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

NEW! Click on a team's name to see the RPI Forecast broken down by different end of season records plus Schedules, Results and Probabilities of Winning

Through games of Mar 11, 2010.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
244.6	Air Force	MWC	1.4	239	241	243	244	245	246	246	246	246
89.7	Akron	MAC	6.6	75	78	80	83	91	96	97	98	100
96.5	Alabama	SEC	5.7	69	78	89	97	98	99	101	102	104
330.8	Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.5	328	330	330	331	331	331	331	331	332
270.0	Alabama St.	SWAC	8.3	247	250	255	263	274	275	277	278	279
301.0	Albany	AE	0.9	300	300	300	300	301	302	302	303	305
345.8	Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.6	344	344	345	346	346	346	346	347	347
294.5	American	Pat	0.6	292	293	294	294	295	295	295	295	296
99.5	Appalachian St.	SC	1.3	96	97	98	99	99	100	101	102	104
94.2	Arizona	P10	1.3	90	92	93	93	94	95	96	97	99
63.4	Arizona St.	P10	1.1	59	61	62	63	63	64	65	65	67
158.6	Arkansas	SEC	1.6	153	156	157	157	159	160	161	162	166
299.1	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.3	298	299	299	299	299	299	300	300	301
190.0	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	6.4	177	180	182	184	192	196	198	200	203
202.1	Arkansas St.	SB	1.0	199	200	201	201	202	203	203	204	206
248.1	Army	Pat	1.0	247	247	247	247	248	249	250	250	251
154.8	Auburn	SEC	1.1	151	153	153	154	155	156	156	157	159
163.8	Austin Peay	OVC	1.3	159	161	162	163	164	165	165	166	169
218.3	Ball St.	MAC	2.0	212	215	215	217	218	220	221	222	224
7.6	Baylor	B12	1.5	2	5	6	6	8	9	10	10	12
136.3	Belmont	ASun	1.7	130	133	134	135	136	137	138	140	143
258.7	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.4	253	255	257	258	259	260	260	261	262
227.6	Binghamton	AE	1.0	225	226	226	227	228	228	229	229	231
204.2	Boise St.	WAC	1.1	200	202	203	203	204	205	206	206	208
122.3	Boston College	ACC	2.1	115	118	119	121	122	124	125	126	128
137.7	Boston University	AE	9.2	118	124	125	126	144	145	146	147	151
188.8	Bowling Green	MAC	1.3	186	187	187	188	189	190	190	191	193
104.0	Bradley	MVC	1.2	100	102	103	103	104	105	105	106	108
19.4	Brigham Young	MWC	4.2	10	12	14	15	21	23	24	25	27
256.6	Brown	Ivy	1.1	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	258	261
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
344.8	Bryant	ind	0.5	344	344	344	344	345	345	345	346	346
258.8	Bucknell	Pat	0.8	255	258	258	258	259	259	260	261	262
108.4	Buffalo	MAC	1.6	103	105	106	107	108	109	110	112	115
12.9	Butler	Horz	1.5	10	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	19
255.7	Cal Poly	BW	1.2	253	254	254	255	256	257	257	258	260
316.9	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.3	316	316	316	317	317	317	317	317	318
207.7	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.5	202	205	206	207	208	209	210	210	212
252.0	Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.5	250	251	251	252	252	252	253	253	255
19.6	California	P10	3.1	11	14	16	17	19	22	24	25	28
181.8	Campbell	ASun	1.1	177	179	181	181	182	183	183	184	185
204.8	Canisius	MAAC	1.0	201	203	204	204	205	205	206	207	209
313.6	Centenary	Sum	0.9	311	312	312	313	314	314	315	315	316
320.1	Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.8	319	319	319	320	320	321	321	322	322
309.3	Central Connecticut	NEC	0.4	307	309	309	309	309	310	310	310	310
190.0	Central Florida	CUSA	1.0	186	187	189	190	190	191	191	191	193
194.8	Central Michigan	MAC	0.9	192	193	194	194	195	195	196	196	199
284.7	Charleston Southern	BSth	1.0	281	283	283	284	285	285	286	286	287
77.0	Charlotte	A10	1.2	74	75	76	76	77	78	79	80	83
238.1	Chattanooga	SC	1.0	232	236	237	238	238	239	239	240	240
344.4	Chicago St.	GWC	0.6	344	344	344	344	344	345	345	346	346
61.8	Cincinnati	BE	1.1	57	60	61	61	62	63	63	64	67
34.3	Clemson	ACC	1.2	30	32	33	34	34	35	36	37	39
166.4	Cleveland St.	Horz	1.3	160	164	165	166	166	167	168	170	172
137.2	Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.4	133	135	136	136	137	138	139	140	144
290.3	Colgate	Pat	0.5	289	289	290	290	290	291	291	291	292
91.1	College of Charleston	SC	1.0	88	90	90	90	91	92	92	93	96
119.6	Colorado	B12	1.9	114	116	117	118	119	121	122	124	128
121.8	Colorado St.	MWC	2.2	113	118	119	120	122	123	125	126	128
251.2	Columbia	Ivy	0.4	250	251	251	251	251	251	252	252	253
62.6	Connecticut	BE	1.0	58	61	61	62	62	63	64	65	67
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
337.5	Coppin St.	MEAC	0.6	337	337	337	337	337	338	338	339	340
48.6	Cornell	Ivy	1.7	43	46	47	47	49	50	51	52	54
113.8	Creighton	MVC	1.2	109	111	112	113	114	115	115	116	119
335.2	Dartmouth	Ivy	0.4	335	335	335	335	335	335	336	336	337
179.7	Davidson	SC	1.1	177	178	178	179	180	180	181	182	185
49.6	Dayton	A10	6.8	26	32	39	47	53	54	55	56	58
237.6	Delaware	CAA	1.6	231	234	236	237	238	239	239	240	241
206.0	Delaware St.	MEAC	9.3	186	187	192	198	212	214	215	216	219
164.3	Denver	SB	1.0	161	163	163	164	164	165	166	166	168
211.2	DePaul	BE	1.0	208	209	210	211	211	212	212	213	215
167.7	Detroit	Horz	1.1	163	166	166	167	168	168	169	170	172
181.6	Drake	MVC	1.7	177	178	179	180	182	183	183	184	185
148.7	Drexel	CAA	1.8	142	145	146	147	149	150	151	152	153
2.6	Duke	ACC	0.9	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	5	6
110.5	Duquesne	A10	1.5	103	107	108	110	111	112	112	113	115
229.5	East Carolina	CUSA	1.0	225	228	228	229	229	230	231	231	233
122.0	East Tennessee St.	ASun	2.0	116	119	120	121	122	123	125	126	128
169.2	Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.1	164	167	168	169	169	170	171	171	173
154.1	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.0	151	152	153	153	154	155	155	156	158
202.8	Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.0	200	201	202	202	203	203	204	205	207
277.4	Eastern Washington	BSky	1.2	273	274	276	277	278	278	279	279	281
269.7	Elon	SC	0.8	269	269	269	269	270	270	271	271	273
248.4	Evansville	MVC	1.1	247	247	247	247	249	249	250	250	250
79.8	Fairfield	MAAC	1.4	75	77	78	79	80	81	82	82	84
271.3	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.1	269	270	270	271	271	272	273	274	276
51.3	Florida	SEC	6.0	31	35	42	50	54	55	57	58	60
319.4	Florida A&M	MEAC	0.7	317	319	319	319	319	320	320	321	322
216.0	Florida Atlantic	SB	1.2	212	214	215	215	216	217	218	219	222
320.9	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.8	318	319	320	320	321	321	322	322	322
296.0	Florida International	SB	0.1	295	296	296	296	296	296	296	296	297
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
34.2	Florida St.	ACC	5.9	20	23	26	29	36	39	41	43	45
304.7	Fordham	A10	1.8	299	300	302	304	305	306	307	307	308
186.8	Fresno St.	WAC	4.5	155	175	186	187	188	189	190	191	193
280.2	Furman	SC	1.2	277	279	279	279	280	281	282	283	285
318.0	Gardner Webb	BSth	0.1	317	318	318	318	318	318	318	318	319
158.2	George Mason	CAA	1.1	154	156	157	157	158	159	160	160	162
148.1	George Washington	A10	1.9	143	145	146	147	148	150	151	151	153
9.1	Georgetown	BE	1.8	6	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	14
100.0	Georgia	SEC	6.2	65	82	94	99	102	103	105	107	110
288.4	Georgia Southern	SC	0.7	286	287	288	288	289	289	289	289	290
248.6	Georgia St.	CAA	1.1	247	247	247	248	249	249	250	250	251
41.2	Georgia Tech	ACC	5.2	20	26	32	40	43	44	45	46	50
36.7	Gonzaga	WCC	1.4	32	34	35	36	37	38	38	39	42
339.5	Grambling	SWAC	1.3	331	337	338	339	339	340	341	341	341
278.9	Hampton	MEAC	9.2	254	258	260	282	283	284	285	286	286
303.8	Hartford	AE	1.3	299	301	302	303	304	305	306	306	308
98.7	Harvard	Ivy	1.4	96	96	97	98	99	100	101	102	104
253.1	Hawaii	WAC	0.4	252	252	253	253	253	253	254	254	255
254.6	High Point	BSth	0.9	252	253	254	254	254	255	256	257	259
146.0	Hofstra	CAA	1.5	142	143	144	145	146	147	148	149	152
274.1	Holy Cross	Pat	1.7	269	270	272	273	274	275	276	277	279
139.0	Houston	CUSA	13.8	109	113	117	133	136	154	156	157	160
329.9	Houston Baptist	GWC	3.8	319	320	328	328	328	333	334	334	336
329.3	Howard	MEAC	0.7	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	330	331
173.0	Idaho	WAC	0.9	168	171	172	173	173	173	174	175	176
303.7	Idaho St.	BSky	1.4	300	301	302	303	304	305	306	306	308
77.8	Illinois	B10	4.6	52	65	73	76	78	82	83	84	86
290.7	Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.6	288	290	290	290	291	291	291	291	293
74.4	Illinois St.	MVC	0.9	72	73	73	74	74	75	75	76	78
221.3	Indiana	B10	1.5	214	218	219	220	222	222	223	223	225
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
88.0	Indiana St.	MVC	0.9	85	87	87	87	88	89	89	90	92
87.6	Iona	MAAC	1.4	83	85	86	87	88	88	89	90	93
210.4	Iowa	B10	1.1	204	209	209	210	210	211	212	213	214
124.0	Iowa St.	B12	1.9	116	120	121	123	124	125	126	127	131
224.0	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.9	222	222	223	223	224	225	225	226	227
86.4	IUPUI	Sum	1.2	83	84	85	86	86	87	88	89	91
197.1	Jackson St.	SWAC	1.4	192	195	195	196	197	198	199	200	202
142.1	Jacksonville	ASun	1.7	135	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	147
297.8	Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.4	297	297	297	298	298	298	298	298	299
242.7	James Madison	CAA	1.4	239	240	241	242	243	244	245	245	246
1.0	Kansas	B12	0.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
6.5	Kansas St.	B12	1.5	2	3	4	6	6	8	8	9	11
284.7	Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.2	279	282	283	284	285	286	286	286	286
48.6	Kent St.	MAC	1.8	43	45	46	47	49	50	51	52	54
3.3	Kentucky	SEC	1.1	2	2	2	2	3	4	5	6	6
174.7	La Salle	A10	0.9	171	173	174	174	175	175	176	176	178
208.2	Lafayette	Pat	6.1	193	195	196	208	211	212	213	215	218
292.6	Lamar	Slnd	0.6	291	292	292	292	293	293	293	294	295
151.7	Lehigh	Pat	6.8	139	144	145	147	150	152	165	169	175
231.6	Liberty	BSth	0.9	228	230	230	231	232	232	233	233	235
206.9	Lipscomb	ASun	1.3	203	205	205	206	207	208	209	209	211
120.5	Long Beach St.	BW	11.2	96	99	101	112	127	129	130	131	134
240.5	Long Island	NEC	0.9	239	239	240	240	240	241	242	243	245
284.6	Longwood	ind	1.6	279	280	282	284	285	286	286	287	288
243.3	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.3	241	241	242	242	243	244	245	246	246
272.7	Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.1	269	270	271	272	273	273	274	275	276
223.8	Louisiana St.	SEC	1.0	221	222	223	223	224	224	225	226	227
75.9	Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.0	73	74	75	75	76	77	77	78	79
38.3	Louisville	BE	1.2	34	36	37	38	38	39	40	41	43
213.1	Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.8	210	212	212	213	213	214	214	214	216
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
174.8	Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.8	172	173	174	174	175	175	176	176	178
217.6	Loyola MD	MAAC	1.6	214	215	215	216	218	219	220	221	223
152.7	Maine	AE	0.8	149	151	152	152	153	153	154	154	156
225.4	Manhattan	MAAC	0.9	222	224	224	225	225	226	226	227	228
334.1	Marist	MAAC	0.5	333	333	334	334	334	334	335	335	336
44.6	Marquette	BE	6.3	30	33	34	40	47	50	51	52	55
66.6	Marshall	CUSA	0.8	64	65	66	66	67	67	68	68	70
17.9	Maryland	ACC	4.9	7	8	10	13	20	22	23	24	27
307.3	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.9	303	305	306	307	307	308	308	308	310
173.8	Massachusetts	A10	5.8	112	156	173	175	176	176	176	177	178
314.8	McNeese St.	Slnd	0.5	312	314	314	315	315	315	315	315	316
332.7	MD Baltimore County	AE	0.6	332	332	332	332	333	333	333	334	335
57.9	Memphis	CUSA	1.3	53	56	56	57	58	59	60	60	62
219.8	Mercer	ASun	1.6	214	216	218	219	220	221	222	223	224
104.5	Miami FL	ACC	8.0	74	86	96	97	109	111	112	113	116
135.0	Miami OH	MAC	14.3	103	106	108	127	143	145	147	150	154
130.0	Michigan	B10	8.8	85	104	113	131	133	134	136	137	140
24.7	Michigan St.	B10	4.2	10	14	19	22	25	28	29	31	33
180.1	Middle Tennessee	SB	2.0	176	177	178	178	180	182	183	184	185
72.6	Minnesota	B10	7.9	49	53	61	69	76	79	80	82	85
55.9	Mississippi	SEC	6.5	33	38	46	52	59	60	61	62	64
67.3	Mississippi St.	SEC	7.4	44	50	55	65	71	73	74	75	77
325.6	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.9	323	324	325	325	325	326	327	327	328
45.7	Missouri	B12	1.5	41	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	51
282.0	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.2	278	279	280	282	282	283	283	284	286
89.6	Missouri St.	MVC	0.8	85	88	89	89	90	90	91	91	93
288.4	Monmouth	NEC	0.7	287	287	288	288	288	289	289	290	291
95.8	Montana	BSky	1.1	93	94	94	95	96	96	97	98	100
200.8	Montana St.	BSky	1.0	197	199	200	200	201	201	202	203	205
84.2	Morehead St.	OVC	1.0	83	83	83	83	84	85	86	86	89
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
104.0	Morgan St.	MEAC	6.7	94	96	97	99	101	111	114	116	119
172.1	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.7	168	170	171	172	172	172	173	173	175
55.8	Murray St.	OVC	1.1	52	54	54	55	56	56	57	58	60
264.7	Navy	Pat	1.2	262	263	263	264	265	265	266	267	268
217.9	NC Asheville	BSth	1.5	214	215	216	217	218	219	220	221	223
249.0	NC Greensboro	SC	1.2	247	247	247	248	249	250	250	251	251
236.9	NC Wilmington	CAA	1.0	232	235	236	236	237	238	238	239	240
147.8	Nebraska	B12	2.1	140	144	145	146	148	149	151	151	154
58.0	Nevada	WAC	5.9	45	48	50	53	58	60	68	69	72
45.3	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	7.4	29	32	34	38	50	51	52	53	55
242.3	New Hampshire	AE	1.5	239	240	241	241	242	243	244	245	246
9.3	New Mexico	MWC	1.8	6	6	7	8	9	11	12	13	15
67.6	New Mexico St.	WAC	4.2	49	58	60	67	69	70	71	72	75
323.4	New Orleans	SB	0.6	322	323	323	323	323	324	324	324	325
130.2	Niagara	MAAC	1.3	126	127	128	129	130	131	132	133	135
277.3	Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.3	270	274	275	277	278	278	279	279	281
339.4	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.1	333	334	337	337	341	341	341	341	341
265.7	Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.5	261	262	263	265	266	267	267	268	269
92.7	North Carolina	ACC	1.4	89	91	91	92	93	94	95	96	98
301.8	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.7	297	299	300	301	302	303	304	305	308
347.0	North Carolina Central	ind	0.2	345	346	347	347	347	347	347	347	347
99.3	North Carolina St.	ACC	5.7	72	82	92	99	102	103	104	105	107
340.0	North Dakota	GWC	0.5	339	339	339	340	340	340	341	341	341
268.3	North Dakota St.	Sum	0.7	266	267	268	268	268	269	269	270	270
234.0	North Florida	ASun	1.3	229	232	232	233	234	235	236	236	238
101.9	North Texas	SB	1.3	97	99	100	101	102	103	103	104	106
72.9	Northeastern	CAA	1.0	69	71	72	72	73	74	74	75	77
199.0	Northern Arizona	BSky	1.1	195	197	198	198	199	200	200	201	203
117.4	Northern Colorado	BSky	1.3	113	115	116	117	117	118	119	120	123
264.3	Northern Illinois	MAC	1.9	261	261	261	263	265	266	267	268	269
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
18.7	Northern Iowa	MVC	1.5	14	16	17	18	19	20	21	21	23
112.7	Northwestern	B10	5.3	77	95	105	113	114	115	116	117	120
313.0	Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.8	312	312	312	312	313	314	314	315	315
46.7	Notre Dame	BE	4.7	30	33	41	45	48	50	51	52	55
52.8	Oakland	Sum	1.2	49	50	51	52	53	54	54	55	57
106.4	Ohio	MAC	8.6	92	93	95	97	107	115	116	118	121
28.4	Ohio St.	B10	5.5	16	19	21	24	29	32	36	39	42
118.4	Oklahoma	B12	1.6	112	115	116	117	118	119	120	121	125
29.8	Oklahoma St.	B12	1.5	24	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
26.6	Old Dominion	CAA	1.2	23	24	25	26	27	27	28	29	31
124.8	Oral Roberts	Sum	1.7	117	121	123	124	125	126	127	127	130
139.0	Oregon	P10	1.7	134	136	137	138	139	140	141	142	145
184.9	Oregon St.	P10	0.8	183	184	184	184	185	185	186	186	187
116.1	Pacific	BW	11.6	100	102	103	105	115	129	131	132	135
194.0	Penn St.	B10	0.8	191	193	193	193	194	194	195	196	197
301.1	Pennsylvania	Ivy	1.2	299	299	300	300	301	302	303	304	306
305.3	Pepperdine	WCC	1.4	299	302	303	305	306	306	307	308	309
16.5	Pittsburgh	BE	1.5	12	14	15	16	16	17	18	19	22
79.3	Portland	WCC	1.5	75	77	77	78	79	80	81	82	84
221.7	Portland St.	BSky	1.0	218	220	220	221	222	222	223	223	225
274.4	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.4	269	271	273	273	274	275	276	277	279
329.0	Presbyterian	BSth	0.7	328	328	328	328	329	329	330	330	331
133.1	Princeton	Ivy	1.4	131	131	131	132	133	134	135	136	139
139.8	Providence	BE	1.9	134	136	137	139	140	141	142	144	147
13.2	Purdue	B10	4.4	7	7	7	9	13	17	19	21	24
148.3	Quinnipiac	NEC	1.7	142	145	146	147	148	150	150	151	154
170.3	Radford	BSth	1.3	166	168	169	170	170	171	172	173	174
40.7	Rhode Island	A10	5.6	23	26	33	39	41	46	47	48	51
311.0	Rice	CUSA	0.0	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	311	312
26.3	Richmond	A10	3.8	16	19	21	24	27	28	31	34	37
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
141.6	Rider	MAAC	1.9	135	138	139	140	142	143	144	145	148
130.4	Robert Morris	NEC	1.6	126	127	128	129	131	132	132	133	135
159.9	Rutgers	BE	1.3	155	157	158	159	160	161	161	162	164
297.2	Sacramento St.	BSky	0.4	296	297	297	297	297	297	298	298	299
262.8	Sacred Heart	NEC	1.6	261	261	261	261	263	264	265	266	268
181.2	Saint Joseph's	A10	1.9	177	178	179	180	181	183	183	184	186
73.7	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.8	67	68	69	70	71	79	81	82	85
262.5	Samford	SC	1.1	261	261	261	262	262	263	264	265	267
230.3	San Diego	WCC	1.0	225	228	229	230	230	231	232	232	234
29.7	San Diego St.	MWC	4.5	18	21	24	26	32	34	35	36	38
207.2	San Francisco	WCC	1.5	203	204	205	206	207	208	209	210	212
177.2	San Jose St.	WAC	0.6	174	176	177	177	177	177	178	178	181
235.1	Santa Clara	WCC	2.0	229	232	233	234	235	236	238	239	240
316.1	Savannah St.	ind	0.3	314	316	316	316	316	316	317	317	317
191.7	Seattle	ind	0.6	191	191	191	191	192	192	192	193	194
59.7	Seton Hall	BE	1.1	56	58	58	59	60	60	61	62	64
31.5	Siena	MAAC	1.2	27	29	30	31	31	32	33	34	35
321.8	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.8	319	320	321	322	322	322	323	323	325
208.3	South Alabama	SB	1.3	204	206	206	207	208	209	210	211	212
93.0	South Carolina	SEC	1.1	90	91	92	92	93	94	94	95	97
231.5	South Carolina St.	MEAC	8.8	209	211	222	226	231	239	240	241	243
307.2	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.0	302	305	306	307	307	308	308	308	309
220.6	South Dakota	GWC	6.5	213	214	215	215	218	227	232	234	237
233.7	South Dakota St.	Sum	1.4	229	231	232	233	234	235	236	236	238
70.0	South Florida	BE	1.4	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	75
312.6	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.8	312	312	312	312	312	313	314	314	315
192.9	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.8	191	192	192	192	193	193	194	195	196
342.8	Southern	SWAC	0.4	342	342	342	343	343	343	343	343	343
112.0	Southern California	P10	1.4	106	109	110	111	112	113	114	114	117
170.0	Southern Illinois	MVC	1.6	163	167	168	169	170	171	172	172	174
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
207.5	Southern Methodist	CUSA	8.4	186	190	195	198	213	213	214	215	216
105.7	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.2	102	103	104	105	106	106	107	108	110
326.6	Southern Utah	Sum	0.8	324	325	325	326	327	327	327	328	328
152.8	St. Bonaventure	A10	8.6	99	119	140	155	156	156	157	157	159
294.5	St. Francis NY	NEC	0.5	292	294	294	294	294	295	295	295	295
287.2	St. Francis PA	NEC	0.5	285	286	287	287	287	287	288	288	289
82.5	St. John's	BE	0.9	78	81	81	82	82	83	84	84	86
81.0	St. Louis	A10	6.6	54	66	74	76	85	86	87	87	90
36.2	St. Mary's	WCC	1.3	31	34	35	35	36	37	38	39	42
179.3	St. Peter's	MAAC	1.4	177	177	178	178	179	180	181	182	184
160.8	Stanford	P10	7.9	117	133	151	162	164	165	165	166	168
144.0	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	11.0	124	127	128	129	151	152	152	153	155
326.0	Stetson	ASun	0.9	323	324	325	325	326	327	327	328	328
142.3	Stony Brook	AE	1.6	135	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	147
4.5	Syracuse	BE	0.8	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
16.3	Temple	A10	4.7	8	9	10	11	18	20	22	23	26
15.4	Tennessee	SEC	5.0	7	7	8	11	15	20	22	23	25
338.5	Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.6	337	338	338	338	338	339	339	340	341
259.8	Tennessee St.	OVC	0.8	257	258	259	259	260	260	261	261	262
196.8	Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.0	194	195	196	196	197	197	198	199	201
28.8	Texas	B12	1.4	23	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	34
13.8	Texas A&M	B12	2.8	6	7	10	13	14	16	17	18	20
167.8	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.6	161	165	166	167	168	169	170	171	173
234.4	Texas Arlington	Slnd	1.7	228	231	232	233	235	236	236	237	239
188.8	Texas Christian	MWC	1.1	186	187	187	188	189	190	190	191	192
35.2	Texas El Paso	CUSA	4.8	25	28	30	31	33	40	41	43	46
335.0	Texas Pan American	GWC	2.5	325	328	332	336	336	336	336	337	338
187.2	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	1.4	184	186	186	186	187	188	189	190	193
224.0	Texas Southern	SWAC	6.4	212	215	216	218	226	228	230	238	240
243.8	Texas St.	Slnd	2.0	238	240	241	242	244	245	246	246	246
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
71.0	Texas Tech	B12	1.3	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	73	76
199.4	The Citadel	SC	1.4	194	196	198	199	199	200	201	202	204
323.9	Toledo	MAC	0.7	322	323	323	323	324	324	325	325	327
263.6	Towson	CAA	1.6	261	261	261	262	264	265	266	266	268
109.8	Troy	SB	1.3	104	107	108	109	110	111	111	112	115
280.5	Tulane	CUSA	1.2	276	279	279	280	280	281	282	283	285
63.2	Tulsa	CUSA	4.7	51	53	54	64	65	66	67	67	69
44.6	UAB	CUSA	1.4	41	42	43	44	45	45	46	47	49
240.3	UC Davis	BW	8.0	214	220	228	233	245	246	246	246	246
276.2	UC Irvine	BW	0.9	273	275	275	276	276	277	277	278	279
255.8	UC Riverside	BW	0.9	254	254	255	255	256	256	257	257	259
105.2	UC Santa Barbara	BW	8.9	89	90	91	96	106	114	117	118	122
137.1	UCLA	P10	6.5	101	115	134	137	139	140	141	143	147
157.9	Utah	MWC	1.2	153	156	156	157	158	159	159	160	163
28.3	Utah St.	WAC	4.3	22	24	24	25	26	32	34	38	42
342.2	Utah Valley	GWC	0.4	342	342	342	342	342	342	343	343	343
185.0	Valparaiso	Horz	0.8	183	184	184	185	185	186	186	186	188
21.1	Vanderbilt	SEC	4.5	8	11	13	19	23	24	25	28	32
123.3	Vermont	AE	9.0	112	114	115	116	117	134	136	137	139
13.5	Villanova	BE	1.5	10	11	12	13	13	15	15	17	19
126.2	Virginia	ACC	4.8	83	109	125	126	127	128	129	130	133
64.7	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.9	62	63	64	64	65	65	66	67	68
309.7	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.5	305	309	309	309	310	310	310	310	310
50.2	Virginia Tech	ACC	4.9	30	36	46	47	50	55	56	57	59
331.5	Wagner	NEC	0.8	328	330	330	331	332	332	332	333	334
40.3	Wake Forest	ACC	1.3	34	38	39	39	40	41	42	43	45
48.2	Washington	P10	6.0	37	39	40	42	49	54	56	57	60
162.4	Washington St.	P10	0.8	159	161	161	162	162	163	163	164	165
85.3	Weber St.	BSky	1.4	83	83	84	84	85	86	87	88	92
4.1	West Virginia	BE	1.1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	6	6
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
122.0	Western Carolina	SC	1.5	118	119	120	121	122	123	124	125	128
280.6	Western Illinois	Sum	1.0	279	279	279	280	281	281	282	283	284
134.2	Western Kentucky	SB	1.2	131	132	133	133	134	135	136	137	140
141.5	Western Michigan	MAC	13.3	111	114	116	136	150	151	152	153	155
42.8	Wichita St.	MVC	1.3	40	40	41	42	43	44	45	45	48
57.7	William & Mary	CAA	1.1	53	56	56	57	58	58	59	60	62
292.4	Winston Salem St.	ind	0.5	290	292	292	292	292	293	293	293	294
160.7	Winthrop	BSth	0.9	157	159	160	160	161	161	162	162	164
15.1	Wisconsin	B10	5.3	7	7	8	9	17	20	21	23	26
107.4	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.3	103	105	106	107	107	108	109	110	112
129.2	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	1.4	125	127	127	128	129	130	131	132	134
68.5	Wofford	SC	1.1	65	67	67	68	68	69	70	71	73
80.4	Wright St.	Horz	1.4	75	78	79	79	80	81	82	83	85
227.4	Wyoming	MWC	1.1	225	225	226	227	227	228	229	229	231
18.6	Xavier	A10	5.7	8	9	10	12	21	23	25	26	28
267.4	Yale	Ivy	0.8	264	266	267	267	267	268	268	269	270
271.1	Youngstown St.	Horz	1.2	269	269	270	270	271	272	273	273	276