RPI Forecast

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Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Click the link at the top for the simulation results that exclude conference tournament forecasts.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

NEW! Click on a team's name to see the RPI Forecast broken down by different end of season records plus Schedules, Results and Probabilities of Winning

Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
182.5	Air Force	MWC	23.0	66	133	152	167	184	200	210	222	236
45.6	Akron	MAC	18.1	9	17	23	31	44	58	70	85	117
33.5	Alabama	SEC	14.2	4	10	16	23	32	43	53	64	103
329.8	Alabama A&M	SWAC	12.2	243	298	313	325	334	338	341	342	344
297.2	Alabama St.	SWAC	18.3	210	251	274	288	299	310	319	326	339
197.6	Albany	AE	29.1	97	134	158	179	200	218	233	249	284
332.3	Alcorn St.	SWAC	9.7	260	306	319	329	335	339	341	343	344
152.6	American	Pat	24.4	71	103	121	137	153	169	183	201	227
245.3	Appalachian St.	SC	27.5	136	184	209	227	247	266	279	290	309
74.3	Arizona	P12	19.6	26	37	47	60	75	89	99	110	143
245.5	Arizona St.	P12	16.3	153	210	224	235	247	257	265	272	287
71.0	Arkansas	SEC	22.9	8	29	42	55	70	86	102	119	157
188.4	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	25.5	99	134	153	172	191	207	219	233	264
325.4	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	11.8	251	297	308	319	328	334	338	341	344
230.2	Arkansas St.	SB	24.7	114	175	199	215	232	248	260	272	293
289.8	Army	Pat	16.7	169	249	268	281	293	301	308	314	326
157.3	Auburn	SEC	22.8	62	110	127	142	159	174	186	196	211
194.0	Austin Peay	OVC	27.1	97	135	156	176	197	214	226	239	266
221.1	Ball St.	MAC	27.5	104	158	185	205	223	240	254	269	296
10.1	Baylor	B12	5.8	1	2	3	6	9	14	18	24	46
54.3	Belmont	ASun	18.1	23	30	34	40	50	65	81	97	133
253.6	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	27.8	135	190	217	236	257	274	286	298	320
343.4	Binghamton	AE	1.2	327	340	342	343	344	344	344	344	344
184.5	Boise St.	MWC	25.9	63	127	151	169	186	203	216	228	251
253.7	Boston College	ACC	14.6	175	221	234	244	256	265	271	275	284
167.4	Boston University	AE	23.7	90	121	135	150	168	185	197	211	241
156.2	Bowling Green	MAC	28.9	59	95	117	137	158	177	191	207	243
253.9	Bradley	MVC	15.6	162	219	233	244	256	266	272	278	289
41.2	Brigham Young	WCC	13.4	12	19	23	30	42	51	58	67	95
307.0	Brown	Ivy	8.7	262	288	296	302	308	314	317	320	326
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
334.9	Bryant	NEC	4.9	300	322	328	333	336	338	340	341	343
81.4	Bucknell	Pat	14.1	48	59	64	71	80	91	101	112	137
65.4	Buffalo	MAC	24.7	12	23	33	47	64	82	99	117	169
147.9	Butler	Horz	23.4	62	98	117	133	150	165	177	189	221
180.9	Cal Poly	BW	26.5	105	124	144	165	182	199	214	230	269
215.6	Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	18.3	156	181	192	203	215	228	239	253	274
159.8	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	29.8	68	102	120	139	160	182	198	216	253
307.9	Cal St. Northridge	BW	11.3	220	284	294	301	308	316	322	327	336
40.1	California	P12	17.6	7	14	18	25	39	53	64	75	119
166.2	Campbell	BSth	27.6	80	109	129	148	167	186	201	217	254
322.3	Canisius	MAAC	9.1	267	301	310	317	324	329	333	335	340
300.7	Central Arkansas	Slnd	15.6	185	266	281	292	302	312	320	327	336
228.0	Central Connecticut	NEC	31.5	101	150	183	212	234	250	263	275	294
74.9	Central Florida	CUSA	23.3	13	30	45	59	74	91	105	120	153
271.3	Central Michigan	MAC	19.8	143	226	243	259	275	286	293	301	319
138.9	Charleston Southern	BSth	31.4	46	78	97	117	139	161	180	201	250
144.3	Charlotte	A10	21.3	55	100	117	131	145	159	171	184	210
277.7	Chattanooga	SC	23.4	157	219	246	266	283	294	302	311	327
337.0	Chicago St.	GWC	5.7	295	321	329	335	339	341	342	343	344
90.9	Cincinnati	BE	21.7	23	47	62	77	92	106	118	133	168
149.7	Clemson	ACC	26.1	55	100	117	132	149	169	185	200	225
57.5	Cleveland St.	Horz	12.8	27	36	42	48	56	65	74	87	118
107.0	Coastal Carolina	BSth	27.9	30	54	71	88	106	125	143	164	226
294.4	Colgate	Pat	10.9	207	269	281	289	296	302	307	311	317
121.4	College of Charleston	SC	24.2	55	74	88	104	123	139	152	166	203
78.7	Colorado	P12	22.0	9	34	50	65	79	93	106	122	160
42.2	Colorado St.	MWC	15.4	1	14	22	31	42	53	62	73	95
157.1	Columbia	Ivy	19.5	95	121	132	143	157	170	182	197	226
31.9	Connecticut	BE	14.0	1	8	15	22	31	41	51	62	90
202.0	Coppin St.	MEAC	32.2	110	133	155	181	206	224	241	259	292
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
183.3	Cornell	Ivy	25.5	100	133	148	165	185	203	215	232	273
20.8	Creighton	MVC	10.5	2	6	9	13	19	27	36	45	67
321.3	Dartmouth	Ivy	9.1	265	300	309	316	323	328	332	334	339
50.9	Davidson	SC	19.2	16	23	29	36	47	64	79	94	136
83.1	Dayton	A10	20.2	18	40	56	71	84	97	109	120	153
179.7	Delaware	CAA	27.6	74	121	144	162	180	199	214	231	265
271.9	Delaware St.	MEAC	26.9	142	207	234	257	277	291	301	312	329
81.4	Denver	SB	22.6	33	44	51	63	81	98	111	125	168
193.8	DePaul	BE	20.3	106	148	166	182	196	209	218	227	243
179.6	Detroit	Horz	28.0	83	119	142	161	183	200	213	227	257
142.8	Drake	MVC	21.9	57	98	116	129	143	157	170	187	218
69.6	Drexel	CAA	20.6	22	35	42	53	70	84	97	110	141
6.1	Duke	ACC	4.1	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	16	35
86.2	Duquesne	A10	19.3	17	44	61	74	88	99	110	122	146
158.1	East Carolina	CUSA	28.8	46	98	120	139	159	180	196	209	229
186.1	East Tennessee St.	ASun	29.0	81	125	148	166	187	208	223	236	269
295.2	Eastern Illinois	OVC	12.4	208	268	279	288	296	304	310	317	327
207.0	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	27.9	99	145	169	190	210	227	240	254	275
254.0	Eastern Michigan	MAC	20.2	159	208	228	241	256	270	278	285	303
207.6	Eastern Washington	BSky	25.8	106	150	175	192	208	225	240	255	279
223.0	Elon	SC	26.8	103	163	188	208	225	241	257	271	292
160.7	Evansville	MVC	22.6	65	114	132	146	161	176	190	205	228
133.9	Fairfield	MAAC	25.5	51	83	100	117	134	150	167	185	217
324.0	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	7.7	289	306	313	319	325	330	333	335	340
15.6	Florida	SEC	9.3	1	3	6	9	13	21	29	38	73
328.2	Florida A&M	MEAC	9.4	276	305	315	323	330	335	338	340	344
179.0	Florida Atlantic	SB	26.5	84	124	143	161	181	198	213	225	249
205.9	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	26.4	90	149	170	189	209	226	238	250	270
212.8	Florida International	SB	24.1	115	159	181	198	215	230	242	253	283
24.3	Florida St.	ACC	12.4	1	6	10	15	23	32	42	52	85
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
248.4	Fordham	A10	15.9	150	213	227	238	250	261	267	272	281
181.5	Fresno St.	WAC	28.9	75	119	142	163	184	202	216	232	269
224.7	Furman	SC	28.2	114	159	186	210	227	244	259	273	294
267.4	Gardner Webb	BSth	23.5	138	210	236	256	272	284	292	300	317
90.5	George Mason	CAA	23.0	27	45	59	74	92	107	120	132	172
201.7	George Washington	A10	20.4	95	154	174	189	204	217	226	233	247
15.9	Georgetown	BE	9.3	1	3	5	8	15	21	29	38	77
139.5	Georgia	SEC	20.8	54	95	112	126	140	154	166	178	196
224.5	Georgia Southern	SC	30.7	105	156	183	204	228	246	262	275	297
111.2	Georgia St.	CAA	26.7	46	59	73	92	114	130	144	161	202
174.6	Georgia Tech	ACC	20.4	97	136	148	160	175	189	201	213	243
29.1	Gonzaga	WCC	12.6	5	10	13	18	28	38	46	54	99
341.1	Grambling	SWAC	2.7	310	334	338	340	342	343	343	344	344
302.3	Hampton	MEAC	17.8	198	259	281	293	304	315	323	330	338
327.3	Hartford	AE	8.1	275	308	316	323	329	333	336	339	343
45.6	Harvard	Ivy	9.4	23	32	35	39	44	51	58	67	107
184.8	Hawaii	WAC	28.3	71	124	146	166	187	206	220	232	256
279.0	High Point	BSth	18.8	165	232	255	271	282	292	298	305	321
237.2	Hofstra	CAA	21.7	132	189	209	224	239	253	264	274	291
225.7	Holy Cross	Pat	26.5	111	170	191	209	228	244	258	272	292
234.8	Houston	CUSA	25.8	109	178	200	218	237	254	266	276	293
313.0	Houston Baptist	GWC	14.9	218	278	294	305	315	324	330	335	341
312.9	Howard	MEAC	12.4	237	285	297	306	315	322	327	332	338
166.0	Idaho	WAC	28.5	77	108	127	146	168	187	202	218	255
262.4	Idaho St.	BSky	20.7	168	216	234	249	265	278	287	295	306
47.7	Illinois	B10	15.7	6	19	28	37	47	58	68	82	109
289.4	Illinois Chicago	Horz	19.1	142	241	265	280	293	302	310	319	330
109.3	Illinois St.	MVC	23.4	25	60	79	94	110	126	138	152	202
23.1	Indiana	B10	11.1	1	5	10	15	21	30	38	48	72
138.6	Indiana St.	MVC	23.2	44	93	111	124	138	153	169	186	216
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
38.8	Iona	MAAC	13.9	14	20	23	28	36	48	59	70	100
147.8	Iowa	B10	21.7	56	106	120	133	148	163	176	189	208
47.8	Iowa St.	B12	15.5	5	18	27	37	48	58	68	78	107
256.6	IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	23.2	145	209	226	240	259	275	285	296	307
245.4	IUPUI	Sum	22.1	141	195	217	232	248	260	273	283	303
306.8	Jackson St.	SWAC	15.8	214	270	287	298	308	318	325	332	341
287.3	Jacksonville	ASun	12.0	205	258	272	281	289	295	300	305	315
249.6	Jacksonville St.	OVC	26.2	135	187	214	234	254	269	279	288	303
250.0	James Madison	CAA	18.6	163	210	226	238	252	264	272	280	293
9.4	Kansas	B12	6.3	1	2	3	5	8	13	18	25	47
50.3	Kansas St.	B12	16.6	7	18	28	39	51	62	71	81	114
319.0	Kennesaw St.	ASun	7.5	276	302	309	314	320	324	328	331	336
82.5	Kent St.	MAC	25.0	17	36	50	65	82	100	116	132	177
4.3	Kentucky	SEC	3.4	1	1	1	2	3	6	9	14	36
70.5	La Salle	A10	22.3	14	28	40	55	71	87	100	112	138
210.4	Lafayette	Pat	20.6	117	165	184	198	212	224	236	247	267
92.5	Lamar	Slnd	24.3	39	53	61	73	92	110	125	142	177
108.1	Lehigh	Pat	17.6	58	73	84	97	108	120	131	142	179
305.7	Liberty	BSth	12.3	209	279	291	298	306	315	321	326	333
208.5	Lipscomb	ASun	23.0	107	157	176	195	212	224	235	246	266
34.1	Long Beach St.	BW	13.9	11	16	19	23	31	43	54	66	98
116.6	Long Island	NEC	17.9	54	81	94	105	117	128	139	153	187
312.8	Longwood	ind	11.1	252	290	298	305	314	321	327	331	340
159.0	Louisiana Lafayette	SB	25.8	71	105	124	142	161	177	192	204	243
324.5	Louisiana Monroe	SB	5.8	282	310	317	322	326	329	331	333	337
91.1	Louisiana St.	SEC	21.5	17	49	63	77	91	105	119	134	174
208.0	Louisiana Tech	WAC	23.9	91	152	176	194	210	224	236	249	278
28.9	Louisville	BE	13.1	1	7	12	19	28	37	46	57	92
309.5	Loyola Chicago	Horz	11.4	241	284	295	303	311	318	323	328	335
107.8	Loyola Marymount	WCC	17.5	47	73	86	96	108	120	130	143	171
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
80.3	Loyola MD	MAAC	21.2	23	40	52	65	80	96	108	121	155
254.4	Maine	AE	25.8	125	193	219	239	258	274	284	293	312
106.7	Manhattan	MAAC	21.5	49	66	78	91	107	121	134	149	185
277.4	Marist	MAAC	18.7	189	233	250	267	281	291	299	305	318
19.0	Marquette	BE	10.0	1	4	7	11	18	25	32	42	85
62.5	Marshall	CUSA	20.2	12	24	37	48	62	76	89	103	141
122.6	Maryland	ACC	20.5	42	80	95	109	123	137	149	159	182
319.0	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	11.4	242	293	303	312	321	328	332	335	341
81.7	Massachusetts	A10	22.4	16	34	51	67	83	98	109	122	147
220.0	McNeese St.	Slnd	28.3	95	158	183	203	222	239	255	270	296
332.6	MD Baltimore County	AE	6.8	295	316	323	329	334	338	340	342	344
33.9	Memphis	CUSA	11.0	11	17	21	26	32	40	49	60	94
105.1	Mercer	ASun	15.2	62	77	86	94	105	115	125	136	166
68.7	Miami FL	ACC	19.9	9	30	44	56	68	81	95	109	142
209.7	Miami OH	MAC	26.2	95	153	176	193	211	228	242	256	280
32.6	Michigan	B10	13.5	1	10	16	23	32	41	50	63	97
10.3	Michigan St.	B10	6.5	1	2	3	5	9	14	19	26	53
40.2	Middle Tennessee	SB	15.3	16	21	24	27	37	52	63	73	107
75.9	Minnesota	B10	18.3	13	39	53	63	75	89	100	111	131
79.2	Mississippi	SEC	19.8	12	40	54	66	79	93	106	117	140
48.3	Mississippi St.	SEC	16.7	7	18	28	36	48	59	70	83	113
144.1	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	27.4	89	101	110	122	141	164	183	202	257
13.3	Missouri	B12	8.4	1	3	4	7	12	18	25	34	58
243.1	Missouri Kansas City	Sum	19.8	132	201	218	231	245	257	268	276	293
82.5	Missouri St.	MVC	18.0	30	46	58	70	83	95	106	116	148
275.7	Monmouth	NEC	14.8	182	242	256	267	277	287	293	298	306
98.6	Montana	BSky	17.6	52	68	77	86	97	110	121	136	185
263.1	Montana St.	BSky	19.0	163	220	237	252	266	278	285	291	301
186.1	Morehead St.	OVC	28.4	89	127	148	166	189	207	221	234	261
252.1	Morgan St.	MEAC	28.9	150	184	212	235	256	274	286	296	321
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
291.7	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	12.0	195	264	277	285	293	300	305	311	321
26.2	Murray St.	OVC	11.6	6	11	14	18	23	32	43	54	87
316.2	Navy	Pat	8.8	249	296	305	311	318	323	326	330	336
119.6	NC Asheville	BSth	17.3	56	87	98	108	119	131	142	155	184
257.0	NC Greensboro	SC	22.1	143	208	227	243	260	274	284	290	299
210.2	NC Wilmington	CAA	22.5	115	161	180	196	212	226	238	249	263
128.3	Nebraska	B10	19.9	51	87	102	115	129	142	154	165	180
62.2	Nevada	WAC	20.0	17	28	36	47	61	76	89	103	133
14.5	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	6.8	1	5	7	10	13	18	24	31	55
312.8	New Hampshire	AE	12.8	227	284	297	305	314	322	328	334	342
26.0	New Mexico	MWC	13.6	2	6	9	15	25	35	44	57	91
69.2	New Mexico St.	WAC	21.1	24	35	43	52	68	84	98	113	154
208.6	Niagara	MAAC	21.2	119	163	182	196	209	222	235	250	277
315.8	Nicholls St.	Slnd	9.3	260	295	303	310	317	322	327	330	337
291.1	NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	21.9	185	237	262	281	295	306	316	324	338
125.3	Norfolk St.	MEAC	24.0	68	82	92	107	126	142	156	171	205
5.7	North Carolina	ACC	4.4	1	1	1	2	5	8	12	17	36
262.0	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	25.2	144	204	228	247	266	281	291	300	315
222.3	North Carolina Central	MEAC	36.0	123	147	170	200	225	248	268	284	307
66.6	North Carolina St.	ACC	17.4	13	32	44	55	66	78	89	103	135
252.1	North Dakota	GWC	34.8	142	181	204	227	255	280	295	307	334
118.4	North Dakota St.	Sum	26.9	41	65	82	101	119	136	153	172	216
184.9	North Florida	ASun	24.3	83	133	151	169	188	203	214	225	248
197.7	North Texas	SB	30.9	94	130	156	178	200	219	236	252	282
166.3	Northeastern	CAA	24.0	67	116	136	151	167	183	197	210	251
328.9	Northern Arizona	BSky	6.4	290	313	320	325	330	334	336	338	341
254.4	Northern Colorado	BSky	20.3	125	205	227	243	257	269	277	285	298
337.4	Northern Illinois	MAC	4.7	301	325	331	335	339	341	342	343	344
65.5	Northern Iowa	MVC	17.8	12	30	42	53	66	78	88	99	129
75.3	Northwestern	B10	19.2	13	40	51	61	75	89	101	113	135
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
179.9	Northwestern St.	Slnd	28.9	69	119	141	161	182	201	216	231	269
71.6	Notre Dame	BE	19.5	15	33	47	58	71	85	97	110	146
137.7	Oakland	Sum	20.9	62	94	111	124	138	152	165	178	205
60.3	Ohio	MAC	21.1	12	23	33	45	60	74	88	105	142
4.0	Ohio St.	B10	3.4	1	1	1	1	3	5	9	13	34
96.2	Oklahoma	B12	21.0	21	56	70	82	95	111	124	137	167
127.8	Oklahoma St.	B12	20.1	53	88	103	114	127	142	155	167	186
125.4	Old Dominion	CAA	21.7	45	79	96	111	127	141	151	163	202
39.7	Oral Roberts	Sum	15.4	11	17	21	28	38	50	61	73	103
90.8	Oregon	P12	20.3	23	48	64	78	92	105	117	129	159
109.7	Oregon St.	P12	27.0	29	52	73	93	111	128	143	159	186
264.4	Pacific	BW	20.3	147	218	236	252	268	279	287	295	312
173.5	Penn St.	B10	18.3	102	134	149	162	175	187	196	205	220
120.6	Pennsylvania	Ivy	15.6	72	92	101	110	120	131	141	154	186
252.8	Pepperdine	WCC	21.8	151	206	224	238	254	270	280	288	300
79.7	Pittsburgh	BE	20.3	13	41	53	65	80	94	106	119	141
223.7	Portland	WCC	20.1	131	181	196	211	225	238	249	257	271
207.5	Portland St.	BSky	27.6	104	148	171	190	209	226	242	259	287
277.9	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	21.0	178	227	249	267	282	293	301	310	328
251.0	Presbyterian	BSth	22.6	143	199	222	237	253	268	278	287	306
124.3	Princeton	Ivy	18.6	67	90	102	111	123	137	149	164	202
154.8	Providence	BE	23.8	64	105	124	139	156	172	185	198	219
70.2	Purdue	B10	17.3	15	36	48	59	70	82	93	105	131
166.4	Quinnipiac	NEC	29.0	64	103	125	149	170	187	201	214	248
335.2	Radford	BSth	5.0	293	322	329	333	336	339	340	341	344
256.0	Rhode Island	A10	13.6	171	225	238	248	259	266	271	276	289
181.0	Rice	CUSA	25.7	74	126	147	165	182	200	214	226	256
138.9	Richmond	A10	22.4	54	91	110	125	140	154	167	181	204
213.9	Rider	MAAC	22.2	117	166	185	201	216	229	241	253	277
106.7	Robert Morris	NEC	20.1	51	68	79	92	108	121	132	144	175
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
148.0	Rutgers	BE	23.8	42	98	117	133	149	165	178	190	213
305.9	Sacramento St.	BSky	12.2	202	280	292	299	307	314	320	326	335
238.3	Sacred Heart	NEC	22.1	135	182	211	227	241	252	264	275	293
55.3	Saint Joseph's	A10	18.5	8	19	30	42	56	68	78	91	120
285.4	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	17.7	174	241	262	276	288	297	305	313	325
252.5	Samford	SC	21.7	153	204	224	238	255	269	279	286	297
216.5	San Diego	WCC	23.1	116	167	187	202	218	232	246	258	277
30.7	San Diego St.	MWC	14.1	1	7	13	21	29	39	50	62	89
152.5	San Francisco	WCC	24.3	52	104	120	136	154	170	183	197	218
278.9	San Jose St.	WAC	15.5	198	241	258	271	282	290	296	301	313
275.6	Santa Clara	WCC	17.3	159	230	252	268	279	288	293	298	309
198.2	Savannah St.	MEAC	34.8	107	129	148	174	202	224	241	260	297
289.4	Seattle	ind	15.0	222	255	270	281	291	299	307	316	335
59.3	Seton Hall	BE	18.8	6	24	36	46	59	72	85	98	122
224.5	Siena	MAAC	24.3	120	172	194	210	225	240	254	272	298
305.7	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	13.7	207	276	289	298	306	315	322	329	339
197.2	South Alabama	SB	26.5	93	137	163	180	200	216	229	240	280
177.4	South Carolina	SEC	23.7	72	128	145	162	179	195	207	219	245
337.2	South Carolina St.	MEAC	5.3	294	323	331	335	339	341	342	343	344
158.8	South Carolina Upstate	ASun	26.5	71	106	125	141	159	177	194	210	243
281.5	South Dakota	Sum	16.2	158	242	260	273	285	293	299	305	318
47.6	South Dakota St.	Sum	18.7	11	19	24	33	46	60	73	88	122
104.4	South Florida	BE	22.0	24	61	75	90	105	120	133	146	169
237.7	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	29.1	121	173	198	219	240	259	273	285	305
326.7	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	11.1	254	301	311	320	329	335	339	341	344
288.9	Southern	SWAC	21.5	188	235	260	278	292	303	313	322	339
236.9	Southern California	P12	17.5	139	197	214	226	238	250	259	267	275
231.8	Southern Illinois	MVC	21.2	113	187	203	218	234	247	259	267	278
218.7	Southern Methodist	CUSA	23.8	85	166	186	205	221	235	247	259	277
18.6	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	9.9	1	5	7	11	17	24	32	42	67
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
232.9	Southern Utah	Sum	22.6	126	182	203	219	235	249	260	271	284
98.5	St. Bonaventure	A10	24.7	19	46	65	82	101	116	128	144	179
188.3	St. Francis NY	NEC	25.0	99	136	154	172	190	206	220	233	261
305.3	St. Francis PA	NEC	10.0	212	283	292	300	306	312	316	321	328
160.1	St. John's	BE	21.4	69	115	132	146	161	176	187	198	219
28.7	St. Louis	A10	15.5	5	9	11	15	26	40	50	63	96
16.3	St. Mary's	WCC	8.1	2	6	8	10	15	21	28	36	55
279.4	St. Peter's	MAAC	14.6	197	246	260	271	281	290	296	302	318
86.0	Stanford	P12	24.1	21	38	52	69	88	103	116	131	170
234.3	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	31.3	109	165	192	215	237	258	273	285	309
254.8	Stetson	ASun	20.9	132	206	228	242	257	271	280	287	297
136.9	Stony Brook	AE	25.7	75	96	106	117	134	154	172	193	246
3.4	Syracuse	BE	2.9	1	1	1	1	2	5	7	11	26
28.2	Temple	A10	13.0	4	8	12	18	27	37	46	57	83
138.5	Tennessee	SEC	26.2	41	86	107	121	138	156	173	190	217
322.6	Tennessee Martin	OVC	9.4	283	302	309	316	324	330	334	337	341
152.3	Tennessee St.	OVC	27.1	63	98	116	134	152	172	188	202	224
131.5	Tennessee Tech	OVC	24.4	59	87	101	114	131	148	165	180	211
61.2	Texas	B12	19.0	10	24	36	48	62	74	85	97	137
162.5	Texas A&M	B12	26.1	45	113	128	143	163	181	197	211	232
314.6	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	11.1	256	291	300	307	316	323	328	332	339
84.9	Texas Arlington	Slnd	22.7	38	50	57	66	83	101	116	133	185
132.7	Texas Christian	MWC	21.3	44	88	106	119	133	147	160	174	195
179.7	Texas El Paso	CUSA	27.9	75	120	144	161	181	200	215	228	250
307.0	Texas Pan American	GWC	15.9	224	270	286	298	308	319	326	332	342
157.8	Texas San Antonio	Slnd	28.0	82	104	120	138	158	178	194	211	251
229.7	Texas Southern	SWAC	31.6	138	168	186	207	231	254	271	285	312
317.1	Texas St.	Slnd	13.5	205	288	300	309	319	327	333	337	343
243.2	Texas Tech	B12	14.1	172	210	224	235	245	254	259	264	277
330.9	The Citadel	SC	7.0	283	313	321	328	333	336	338	339	342
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
275.2	Toledo	MAC	18.3	172	233	250	265	278	288	295	302	318
305.7	Towson	CAA	7.0	257	290	296	302	307	311	314	317	324
271.9	Troy	SB	22.1	152	221	241	259	275	289	297	303	317
171.5	Tulane	CUSA	33.0	51	102	129	150	172	196	214	231	262
106.0	Tulsa	CUSA	22.0	35	61	77	91	107	121	133	148	181
145.3	UAB	CUSA	22.4	58	98	117	131	145	161	174	186	209
342.3	UC Davis	BW	2.0	323	337	340	342	343	343	344	344	344
259.9	UC Irvine	BW	20.8	133	213	231	247	263	276	284	291	308
258.7	UC Riverside	BW	18.9	160	215	233	247	261	273	281	288	301
137.8	UC Santa Barbara	BW	29.8	57	83	99	116	137	159	178	197	237
106.2	UCLA	P12	25.1	35	55	71	90	108	123	137	154	201
276.1	Utah	P12	9.2	214	252	263	272	279	282	285	288	295
128.6	Utah St.	WAC	28.3	48	71	91	109	129	148	165	184	211
207.4	Utah Valley	GWC	28.7	135	157	170	185	207	228	246	264	302
104.1	Valparaiso	Horz	20.8	39	64	77	90	104	118	131	146	184
36.2	Vanderbilt	SEC	13.2	3	13	20	27	35	45	54	65	95
160.3	Vermont	AE	23.4	96	119	130	143	160	177	192	206	238
103.0	Villanova	BE	23.8	21	56	71	87	104	119	133	148	179
40.5	Virginia	ACC	16.0	5	13	19	29	40	51	61	73	109
69.1	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	20.6	25	35	42	53	68	84	98	110	143
262.6	Virginia Military Inst	BSth	27.4	125	199	225	246	267	283	294	303	317
95.2	Virginia Tech	ACC	20.9	25	53	68	81	95	110	122	135	162
87.4	Wagner	NEC	12.8	46	62	71	78	87	97	104	111	141
180.8	Wake Forest	ACC	18.9	107	138	155	169	183	194	204	212	232
70.3	Washington	P12	20.6	16	30	42	56	71	85	97	109	155
167.4	Washington St.	P12	27.5	50	110	131	150	169	187	201	216	242
78.6	Weber St.	BSky	20.4	26	40	53	64	78	92	105	120	177
35.9	West Virginia	BE	15.2	3	10	16	25	35	46	56	69	105
257.8	Western Carolina	SC	22.5	152	206	227	244	262	275	283	291	307
176.3	Western Illinois	Sum	28.7	71	115	138	157	179	198	211	224	246
Expected			Standard		2.5th	10th	25th		75th	90th	97.5th
Rank	Team	Conf	Deviation	Min	%ile	%ile	%ile	median	%ile	%ile	%ile	max
242.0	Western Kentucky	SB	19.6	143	200	215	230	244	256	265	275	292
181.2	Western Michigan	MAC	26.4	72	124	146	165	183	199	214	228	264
16.5	Wichita St.	MVC	9.2	2	5	7	9	14	22	30	39	71
305.7	William & Mary	CAA	8.4	246	287	295	301	307	312	316	319	326
267.4	Winthrop	BSth	21.1	149	217	238	255	271	283	291	298	313
22.7	Wisconsin	B10	10.0	3	8	10	15	22	29	36	45	67
189.0	Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	33.1	62	118	145	168	191	213	230	249	285
127.1	Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	26.0	49	75	92	109	128	145	160	176	214
163.4	Wofford	SC	29.5	81	108	124	142	163	185	203	220	253
219.7	Wright St.	Horz	22.4	116	168	191	207	222	235	247	257	273
56.9	Wyoming	MWC	19.1	4	20	32	44	57	70	82	96	131
61.0	Xavier	A10	18.4	11	24	36	49	61	74	85	95	116
125.1	Yale	Ivy	20.6	65	88	99	111	124	138	152	169	196
167.2	Youngstown St.	Horz	30.0	64	104	126	147	169	189	204	219	252