live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Below are summary statistics for end-of-season RPI Ranks using 10,000 simulations of all future games.

Using the probability of winning for each team and each future game, 10,000 simulated seasons are run, the resulting RPIs are sorted and ranks are assigned. Expected Rank is the mean from these simulations. All 10,000 Ranks are presented for each team in histograms found by clicking on the team name. You can think of the min and max as the best and worst case scenarios for the team.
How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

NEW! Click on a team's name to see the RPI Forecast broken down by different end of season records plus Schedules, Results and Probabilities of Winning


Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
321.0Abilene ChristianSlnd0.0321321321321321321321321321
226.0Air ForceMWC0.0226226226226226226226226226
34.0AkronMAC0.0343434343434343434
73.0AlabamaSEC0.0737373737373737373
332.0Alabama A&MSWAC0.0332332332332332332332332332
265.0Alabama St.SWAC0.0265265265265265265265265265
107.0AlbanyAE0.0107107107107107107107107107
253.0Alcorn St.SWAC0.0253253253253253253253253253
231.0AmericanPat0.0231231231231231231231231231
259.0Appalachian St.SB0.0259259259259259259259259259
26.0ArizonaP120.0262626262626262626
99.0Arizona St.P120.0999999999999999999
133.0ArkansasSEC0.0133133133133133133133133133
42.0Arkansas Little RockSB0.0424242424242424242
311.0Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.0311311311311311311311311311
285.0Arkansas St.SB0.0285285285285285285285285285
214.0ArmyPat0.0214214214214214214214214214
175.0AuburnSEC0.0175175175175175175175175175
184.0Austin PeayOVC0.0184184184184184184184184184
179.0Ball St.MAC0.0179179179179179179179179179
25.0BaylorB120.0252525252525252525
98.0BelmontOVC0.0989898989898989898
288.0Bethune CookmanMEAC0.0288288288288288288288288288
299.0BinghamtonAE0.0299299299299299299299299299
101.0Boise St.MWC0.0101101101101101101101101101
250.0Boston CollegeACC0.0250250250250250250250250250
196.0Boston UniversityPat0.0196196196196196196196196196
200.0Bowling GreenMAC0.0200200200200200200200200200
306.0BradleyMVC0.0306306306306306306306306306
312.0BrownIvy0.0312312312312312312312312312
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
320.0BryantNEC0.0320320320320320320320320320
183.0BucknellPat0.0183183183183183183183183183
90.0BuffaloMAC0.0909090909090909090
57.0ButlerBE0.0575757575757575757
76.0BYUWCC0.0767676767676767676
236.0Cal PolyBW0.0236236236236236236236236236
117.0Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.0117117117117117117117117117
290.0Cal St. FullertonBW0.0290290290290290290290290290
280.0Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.0280280280280280280280280280
16.0CaliforniaP120.0161616161616161616
308.0CampbellBSth0.0308308308308308308308308308
220.0CanisiusMAAC0.0220220220220220220220220220
339.0Central ArkansasSlnd0.0339339339339339339339339339
351.0Central ConnecticutNEC0.0351351351351351351351351351
156.0Central MichiganMAC0.0156156156156156156156156156
298.0Charleston SouthernBSth0.0298298298298298298298298298
234.0CharlotteCUSA0.0234234234234234234234234234
50.0ChattanoogaSC0.0505050505050505050
348.0Chicago St.WAC0.0348348348348348348348348348
48.0CincinnatiAmer0.0484848484848484848
131.0ClemsonACC0.0131131131131131131131131131
278.0Cleveland St.Horz0.0278278278278278278278278278
164.0Coastal CarolinaBSth0.0164164164164164164164164164
241.0ColgatePat0.0241241241241241241241241241
135.0College of CharlestonCAA0.0135135135135135135135135135
35.0ColoradoP120.0353535353535353535
181.0Colorado St.MWC0.0181181181181181181181181181
132.0ColumbiaIvy0.0132132132132132132132132132
32.0ConnecticutAmer0.0323232323232323232
326.0Coppin St.MEAC0.0326326326326326326326326326
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
244.0CornellIvy0.0244244244244244244244244244
100.0CreightonBE0.0100100100100100100100100100
284.0DartmouthIvy0.0284284284284284284284284284
64.0DavidsonA100.0646464646464646464
21.0DaytonA100.0212121212121212121
274.0DelawareCAA0.0274274274274274274274274274
345.0Delaware St.MEAC0.0345345345345345345345345345
188.0DenverSum0.0188188188188188188188188188
198.0DePaulBE0.0198198198198198198198198198
204.0DetroitHorz0.0204204204204204204204204204
325.0DrakeMVC0.0325325325325325325325325325
247.0DrexelCAA0.0247247247247247247247247247
20.0DukeACC0.0202020202020202020
162.0DuquesneA100.0162162162162162162162162162
217.0East CarolinaAmer0.0217217217217217217217217217
85.0East Tennessee St.SC0.0858585858585858585
271.0Eastern IllinoisOVC0.0271271271271271271271271271
211.0Eastern KentuckyOVC0.0211211211211211211211211211
113.0Eastern MichiganMAC0.0113113113113113113113113113
233.0Eastern WashingtonBSky0.0233233233233233233233233233
160.0ElonCAA0.0160160160160160160160160160
93.0EvansvilleMVC0.0939393939393939393
142.0FairfieldMAAC0.0142142142142142142142142142
205.0Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.0205205205205205205205205205
270.0FIUCUSA0.0270270270270270270270270270
55.0FloridaSEC0.0555555555555555555
349.0Florida A&MMEAC0.0349349349349349349349349349
300.0Florida AtlanticCUSA0.0300300300300300300300300300
209.0Florida Gulf CoastASun0.0209209209209209209209209209
82.0Florida St.ACC0.0828282828282828282
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
176.0FordhamA100.0176176176176176176176176176
66.0Fresno St.MWC0.0666666666666666666
167.0FurmanSC0.0167167167167167167167167167
210.0Gardner WebbBSth0.0210210210210210210210210210
201.0George MasonA100.0201201201201201201201201201
68.0George WashingtonA100.0686868686868686868
106.0GeorgetownBE0.0106106106106106106106106106
62.0GeorgiaSEC0.0626262626262626262
243.0Georgia SouthernSB0.0243243243243243243243243243
180.0Georgia St.SB0.0180180180180180180180180180
69.0Georgia TechACC0.0696969696969696969
46.0GonzagaWCC0.0464646464646464646
350.0Grambling St.SWAC0.0350350350350350350350350350
91.0Grand CanyonWAC0.0919191919191919191
112.0Green BayHorz0.0112112112112112112112112112
155.0HamptonMEAC0.0155155155155155155155155155
292.0HartfordAE0.0292292292292292292292292292
193.0HarvardIvy0.0193193193193193193193193193
80.0HawaiiBW0.0808080808080808080
158.0High PointBSth0.0158158158158158158158158158
54.0HofstraCAA0.0545454545454545454
248.0Holy CrossPat0.0248248248248248248248248248
87.0HoustonAmer0.0878787878787878787
224.0Houston BaptistSlnd0.0224224224224224224224224224
328.0HowardMEAC0.0328328328328328328328328328
191.0IdahoBSky0.0191191191191191191191191191
256.0Idaho St.BSky0.0256256256256256256256256256
149.0IllinoisB100.0149149149149149149149149149
346.0Illinois ChicagoHorz0.0346346346346346346346346346
114.0Illinois St.MVC0.0114114114114114114114114114
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
163.0Incarnate WordSlnd0.0163163163163163163163163163
24.0IndianaB100.0242424242424242424
172.0Indiana St.MVC0.0172172172172172172172172172
77.0IonaMAAC0.0777777777777777777
28.0IowaB100.0282828282828282828
23.0Iowa St.B120.0232323232323232323
71.0IPFWSum0.0717171717171717171
189.0IUPUISum0.0189189189189189189189189189
221.0Jackson St.SWAC0.0221221221221221221221221221
289.0JacksonvilleASun0.0289289289289289289289289289
309.0Jacksonville St.OVC0.0309309309309309309309309309
103.0James MadisonCAA0.0103103103103103103103103103
1.0KansasB120.0111111111
92.0Kansas St.B120.0929292929292929292
263.0Kennesaw St.ASun0.0263263263263263263263263263
124.0Kent St.MAC0.0124124124124124124124124124
11.0KentuckySEC0.0111111111111111111
232.0La SalleA100.0232232232232232232232232232
329.0LafayettePat0.0329329329329329329329329329
337.0LamarSlnd0.0337337337337337337337337337
168.0LehighPat0.0168168168168168168168168168
264.0LibertyBSth0.0264264264264264264264264264
269.0LipscombASun0.0269269269269269269269269269
254.0LIU BrooklynNEC0.0254254254254254254254254254
79.0Long Beach St.BW0.0797979797979797979
323.0LongwoodBSth0.0323323323323323323323323323
157.0Louisiana LafayetteSB0.0157157157157157157157157157
95.0Louisiana MonroeSB0.0959595959595959595
122.0Louisiana TechCUSA0.0122122122122122122122122122
17.0LouisvilleACC0.0171717171717171717
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
239.0Loyola ChicagoMVC0.0239239239239239239239239239
223.0Loyola MarymountWCC0.0223223223223223223223223223
255.0Loyola MDPat0.0255255255255255255255255255
94.0LSUSEC0.0949494949494949494
317.0MaineAE0.0317317317317317317317317317
229.0ManhattanMAAC0.0229229229229229229229229229
318.0MaristMAAC0.0318318318318318318318318318
110.0MarquetteBE0.0110110110110110110110110110
128.0MarshallCUSA0.0128128128128128128128128128
14.0MarylandB100.0141414141414141414
307.0Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.0307307307307307307307307307
171.0MassachusettsA100.0171171171171171171171171171
341.0McNeese St.Slnd0.0341341341341341341341341341
139.0MemphisAmer0.0139139139139139139139139139
194.0MercerSC0.0194194194194194194194194194
9.0Miami FLACC0.0999999999
195.0Miami OHMAC0.0195195195195195195195195195
56.0MichiganB100.0565656565656565656
12.0Michigan St.B100.0121212121212121212
78.0Middle TennesseeCUSA0.0787878787878787878
173.0MilwaukeeHorz0.0173173173173173173173173173
257.0MinnesotaB100.0257257257257257257257257257
96.0MississippiSEC0.0969696969696969696
154.0Mississippi St.SEC0.0154154154154154154154154154
330.0Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.0330330330330330330330330330
222.0MissouriSEC0.0222222222222222222222222222
235.0Missouri St.MVC0.0235235235235235235235235235
52.0MonmouthMAAC0.0525252525252525252
145.0MontanaBSky0.0145145145145145145145145145
260.0Montana St.BSky0.0260260260260260260260260260
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
127.0Morehead St.OVC0.0127127127127127127127127127
327.0Morgan St.MEAC0.0327327327327327327327327327
245.0Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.0245245245245245245245245245
169.0Murray St.OVC0.0169169169169169169169169169
216.0NavyPat0.0216216216216216216216216216
165.0NebraskaB100.0165165165165165165165165165
144.0Nebraska OmahaSum0.0144144144144144144144144144
118.0NevadaMWC0.0118118118118118118118118118
177.0New HampshireAE0.0177177177177177177177177177
141.0New MexicoMWC0.0141141141141141141141141141
111.0New Mexico St.WAC0.0111111111111111111111111111
343.0New OrleansSlnd0.0343343343343343343343343343
315.0NiagaraMAAC0.0315315315315315315315315315
313.0Nicholls St.Slnd0.0313313313313313313313313313
207.0NJITASun0.0207207207207207207207207207
225.0Norfolk St.MEAC0.0225225225225225225225225225
5.0North CarolinaACC0.0555555555
340.0North Carolina A&TMEAC0.0340340340340340340340340340
310.0North Carolina CentralMEAC0.0310310310310310310310310310
123.0North Carolina St.ACC0.0123123123123123123123123123
218.0North DakotaBSky0.0218218218218218218218218218
120.0North Dakota St.Sum0.0120120120120120120120120120
161.0North FloridaASun0.0161161161161161161161161161
295.0North TexasCUSA0.0295295295295295295295295295
109.0NortheasternCAA0.0109109109109109109109109109
333.0Northern ArizonaBSky0.0333333333333333333333333333
304.0Northern ColoradoBSky0.0304304304304304304304304304
136.0Northern IllinoisMAC0.0136136136136136136136136136
70.0Northern IowaMVC0.0707070707070707070
296.0Northern KentuckyHorz0.0296296296296296296296296296
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
115.0NorthwesternB100.0115115115115115115115115115
344.0Northwestern St.Slnd0.0344344344344344344344344344
31.0Notre DameACC0.0313131313131313131
116.0OaklandHorz0.0116116116116116116116116116
81.0OhioMAC0.0818181818181818181
74.0Ohio St.B100.0747474747474747474
6.0OklahomaB120.0666666666
170.0Oklahoma St.B120.0170170170170170170170170170
140.0Old DominionCUSA0.0140140140140140140140140140
148.0Oral RobertsSum0.0148148148148148148148148148
2.0OregonP120.0222222222
33.0Oregon St.P120.0333333333333333333
268.0PacificWCC0.0268268268268268268268268268
283.0PennIvy0.0283283283283283283283283283
125.0Penn St.B100.0125125125125125125125125125
129.0PepperdineWCC0.0129129129129129129129129129
53.0PittsburghACC0.0535353535353535353
249.0PortlandWCC0.0249249249249249249249249249
282.0Portland St.BSky0.0282282282282282282282282282
334.0Prairie View A&MSWAC0.0334334334334334334334334334
319.0PresbyterianBSth0.0319319319319319319319319319
39.0PrincetonIvy0.0393939393939393939
40.0ProvidenceBE0.0404040404040404040
15.0PurdueB100.0151515151515151515
297.0QuinnipiacMAAC0.0297297297297297297297297297
192.0RadfordBSth0.0192192192192192192192192192
119.0Rhode IslandA100.0119119119119119119119119119
279.0RiceCUSA0.0279279279279279279279279279
121.0RichmondA100.0121121121121121121121121121
242.0RiderMAAC0.0242242242242242242242242242
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
291.0Robert MorrisNEC0.0291291291291291291291291291
294.0RutgersB100.0294294294294294294294294294
273.0Sacramento St.BSky0.0273273273273273273273273273
258.0Sacred HeartNEC0.0258258258258258258258258258
22.0Saint Joseph'sA100.0222222222222222222
206.0Saint LouisA100.0206206206206206206206206206
38.0Saint Mary'sWCC0.0383838383838383838
208.0Saint Peter'sMAAC0.0208208208208208208208208208
178.0Sam Houston St.Slnd0.0178178178178178178178178178
252.0SamfordSC0.0252252252252252252252252252
302.0San DiegoWCC0.0302302302302302302302302302
41.0San Diego St.MWC0.0414141414141414141
228.0San FranciscoWCC0.0228228228228228228228228228
301.0San Jose St.MWC0.0301301301301301301301301301
251.0Santa ClaraWCC0.0251251251251251251251251251
277.0Savannah St.MEAC0.0277277277277277277277277277
287.0SeattleWAC0.0287287287287287287287287287
19.0Seton HallBE0.0191919191919191919
104.0SienaMAAC0.0104104104104104104104104104
305.0SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.0305305305305305305305305305
13.0SMUAmer0.0131313131313131313
240.0South AlabamaSB0.0240240240240240240240240240
65.0South CarolinaSEC0.0656565656565656565
203.0South Carolina St.MEAC0.0203203203203203203203203203
197.0South DakotaSum0.0197197197197197197197197197
29.0South Dakota St.Sum0.0292929292929292929
230.0South FloridaAmer0.0230230230230230230230230230
342.0Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.0342342342342342342342342342
331.0Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.0331331331331331331331331331
186.0SouthernSWAC0.0186186186186186186186186186
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
138.0Southern IllinoisMVC0.0138138138138138138138138138
314.0Southern MissCUSA0.0314314314314314314314314314
336.0Southern UtahBSky0.0336336336336336336336336336
30.0St. BonaventureA100.0303030303030303030
276.0St. Francis NYNEC0.0276276276276276276276276276
266.0St. Francis PANEC0.0266266266266266266266266266
246.0St. John'sBE0.0246246246246246246246246246
86.0StanfordP120.0868686868686868686
61.0Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.0616161616161616161
303.0StetsonASun0.0303303303303303303303303303
59.0Stony BrookAE0.0595959595959595959
72.0SyracuseACC0.0727272727272727272
174.0TCUB120.0174174174174174174174174174
60.0TempleAmer0.0606060606060606060
143.0TennesseeSEC0.0143143143143143143143143143
213.0Tennessee MartinOVC0.0213213213213213213213213213
152.0Tennessee St.OVC0.0152152152152152152152152152
134.0Tennessee TechOVC0.0134134134134134134134134134
27.0TexasB120.0272727272727272727
18.0Texas A&MSEC0.0181818181818181818
84.0Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.0848484848484848484
190.0Texas SouthernSWAC0.0190190190190190190190190190
238.0Texas St.SB0.0238238238238238238238238238
36.0Texas TechB120.0363636363636363636
322.0The CitadelSC0.0322322322322322322322322322
182.0ToledoMAC0.0182182182182182182182182182
150.0TowsonCAA0.0150150150150150150150150150
293.0TroySB0.0293293293293293293293293293
227.0TulaneAmer0.0227227227227227227227227227
58.0TulsaAmer0.0585858585858585858
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
88.0UABCUSA0.0888888888888888888
281.0UC DavisBW0.0281281281281281281281281281
75.0UC IrvineBW0.0757575757575757575
267.0UC RiversideBW0.0267267267267267267267267267
97.0UC Santa BarbaraBW0.0979797979797979797
219.0UCFAmer0.0219219219219219219219219219
102.0UCLAP120.0102102102102102102102102102
261.0UMass LowellAE0.0261261261261261261261261261
335.0UMBCAE0.0335335335335335335335335335
286.0UMKCWAC0.0286286286286286286286286286
137.0UNC AshevilleBSth0.0137137137137137137137137137
237.0UNC GreensboroSC0.0237237237237237237237237237
45.0UNC WilmingtonCAA0.0454545454545454545
147.0UNLVMWC0.0147147147147147147147147147
51.0USCP120.0515151515151515151
324.0USC UpstateASun0.0324324324324324324324324324
105.0UT ArlingtonSB0.0105105105105105105105105105
338.0UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.0338338338338338338338338338
8.0UtahP120.0888888888
151.0Utah St.MWC0.0151151151151151151151151151
272.0Utah ValleyWAC0.0272272272272272272272272272
215.0UTEPCUSA0.0215215215215215215215215215
347.0UTSACUSA0.0347347347347347347347347347
49.0ValparaisoHorz0.0494949494949494949
63.0VanderbiltSEC0.0636363636363636363
37.0VCUA100.0373737373737373737
126.0VermontAE0.0126126126126126126126126126
4.0VillanovaBE0.0444444444
3.0VirginiaACC0.0333333333
89.0Virginia TechACC0.0898989898989898989
Expected Standard 2.5th10th25th 75th90th97.5th
RankTeamConfDeviation Min%ile%ile%ilemedian%ile%ile%ilemax
316.0VMISC0.0316316316316316316316316316
185.0WagnerNEC0.0185185185185185185185185185
159.0Wake ForestACC0.0159159159159159159159159159
83.0WashingtonP120.0838383838383838383
212.0Washington St.P120.0212212212212212212212212212
108.0Weber St.BSky0.0108108108108108108108108108
10.0West VirginiaB120.0101010101010101010
166.0Western CarolinaSC0.0166166166166166166166166166
262.0Western IllinoisSum0.0262262262262262262262262262
153.0Western KentuckyCUSA0.0153153153153153153153153153
202.0Western MichiganMAC0.0202202202202202202202202202
47.0Wichita St.MVC0.0474747474747474747
67.0William & MaryCAA0.0676767676767676767
130.0WinthropBSth0.0130130130130130130130130130
43.0WisconsinB100.0434343434343434343
199.0WoffordSC0.0199199199199199199199199199
146.0Wright St.Horz0.0146146146146146146146146146
187.0WyomingMWC0.0187187187187187187187187187
7.0XavierBE0.0777777777
44.0YaleIvy0.0444444444444444444
275.0Youngstown St.Horz0.0275275275275275275275275275