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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Lamar

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:92.5
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:220
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:30.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:49
Expected OOC SOS:43


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
24-875.00%53.94.88%
23-971.88%64.917.26%
22-970.97%90.24.34%
21-970.00%105.11.53%
22-1068.75%78.619.49%
21-1067.74%100.710.88%
20-1066.67%115.94.49%
21-1165.62%91.711.10%
20-1164.52%111.58.61%
19-1163.33%127.35.30%
20-1262.50%103.32.92%
19-1261.29%121.13.83%
18-1260.00%140.92.91%
19-1359.38%117.50.46%
18-1358.06%133.90.95%
17-1356.67%154.90.80%
18-1456.25%135.20.04%
17-1454.84%146.90.08%
16-1453.33%170.60.11%
17-1553.12%151.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Lamar.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas St. (230.2)SBH65-62W100%0.0
11-13Louisville (28.9)BEA68-48L0%0.0
11-15Ohio (60.3)MACA85-78L0%0.0
11-19Charlotte (144.3)A10H72-54W100%0.0
11-22Tennessee Martin (322.6)OVCA69-80W100%0.0
11-25Tennessee Tech (131.5)OVCA65-85W100%0.0
11-30Texas Christian (132.7)MWCA77-72L0%0.0
12-3Louisiana Lafayette (159.0)SBH80-63W100%0.0
12-5Texas Pan American (307.0)GWCH60-49W100%0.0
12-17Rice (181.0)CUSAA81-87W100%0.0
12-20Ohio St. (4.0)B10A70-50L0%0.0
12-28Kentucky (4.3)SECA86-64L0%0.0
1-4Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.6)SlndA58-74W100%0.0
1-7Central Arkansas (300.7)SlndH103-67W100%0.0
1-11McNeese St. (220.0)SlndA57-54L0%0.0
1-14Texas Arlington (84.9)SlndH82-91L0%0.0
1-21Central Arkansas (300.7)SlndA78-92W100%0.0
1-25Northwestern St. (179.9)SlndA74-62L0%0.0
1-28Nicholls St. (315.8)SlndH80-56W100%0.0
2-1Southeastern Louisiana (326.7)SlndA59-83W100%0.0
2-4Texas San Antonio (157.8)SlndH80-66W100%0.0
2-8Northwestern St. (179.9)SlndH0-085%11.6
2-11Nicholls St. (315.8)SlndA0-095%17.7
2-15Southeastern Louisiana (326.7)SlndH0-097%20.9
2-18George Mason (90.5)CAAA0-038%-3.4
2-22Stephen F. Austin (234.3)SlndH0-081%9.7
2-25Sam Houston St. (285.4)SlndA0-081%9.5
2-29Texas St. (317.1)SlndA0-082%10.0
3-3McNeese St. (220.0)SlndH0-090%14.2