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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:80.0
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:234
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:102
Expected OOC SOS:255


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Hawaii.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH87-76W100%0.0
11-15Coastal Carolina (164.0)BSthH74-63W100%0.0
11-16Nevada (118.0)MWCH76-75W100%0.0
11-22Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH99-74W100%0.0
11-28Texas Tech (36.0)B12A82-74L0%0.0
12-2Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH75-47W100%0.0
12-22Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH68-52W100%0.0
12-23Oklahoma (6.0)B12H81-84L0%0.0
12-25Auburn (175.0)SECH79-67W100%0.0
12-29Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH77-48W100%0.0
1-2Howard (328.0)MEACH94-59W100%0.0
1-6Cal Poly (236.0)BWH86-73W100%0.0
1-9UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH65-57W100%0.0
1-14UC Riverside (267.0)BWA71-80W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA79-86W100%0.0
1-23UC Davis (281.0)BWH78-62W100%0.0
1-30Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH64-78L0%0.0
2-4UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA64-76W100%0.0
2-6Cal Poly (236.0)BWA60-75W100%0.0
2-11UC Irvine (75.0)BWH74-52W100%0.0
2-13Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH76-59W100%0.0
2-18Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA63-69W100%0.0
2-20UC Irvine (75.0)BWA71-75W100%0.0
2-25UC Riverside (267.0)BWH71-77L0%0.0
2-27Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH89-78W100%0.0
3-3UC Davis (281.0)BWA65-67W100%0.0
3-5Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA74-72L0%0.0
3-10Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWN75-44W100%0.0
3-11UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWN88-76W100%0.0
3-12Long Beach St. (79.0)BWN64-60W100%0.0