live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Nevada

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:62.2
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:141
Current Record:17-4
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:8-1
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Conf Tourney Record:2-1
Probability of Auto Bid:26.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:10-4
Expected OOC RPI:84
Expected OOC SOS:153


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-487.10%23.60.67%
26-583.87%30.34.43%
25-583.33%48.00.78%
24-582.76%57.60.42%
25-680.65%38.111.98%
24-680.00%55.64.97%
23-679.31%67.41.80%
24-777.42%47.316.07%
23-776.67%64.710.47%
22-775.86%77.04.35%
23-874.19%57.411.00%
22-873.33%75.010.47%
21-872.41%87.55.42%
22-970.97%68.64.85%
21-970.00%85.54.82%
20-968.97%98.83.56%
21-1067.74%81.70.96%
20-1066.67%97.61.30%
19-1065.52%110.11.30%
20-1164.52%93.60.08%
19-1163.33%109.70.14%
18-1162.07%125.20.13%
19-1261.29%105.50.02%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Missouri St. (82.5)MVCH46-68L0%0.0
11-14Nevada Las Vegas (14.5)MWCA71-67L0%0.0
11-17Pacific (264.4)BWH78-54W100%0.0
11-20Prairie View A&M (277.9)SWACH60-47W100%0.0
11-22Longwood (312.8)indH80-78W100%0.0
11-25Brigham Young (41.2)WCCN55-76L0%0.0
11-26Bradley (253.9)MVCN64-59W100%0.0
12-2Washington (70.3)P12H76-73W100%0.0
12-7Arizona St. (245.5)P12A61-69W100%0.0
12-10Montana (98.6)BSkyA64-70W100%0.0
12-17UC Riverside (258.7)BWH71-47W100%0.0
12-22Portland (223.7)WCCH78-60W100%0.0
1-5Idaho (166.0)WACA55-73W100%0.0
1-7Utah St. (128.6)WACA71-78W100%0.0
1-12San Jose St. (278.9)WACH81-57W100%0.0
1-14Hawaii (184.8)WACH77-74W100%0.0
1-21Fresno St. (181.5)WACH74-61W100%0.0
1-26New Mexico St. (69.2)WACA60-68W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACA63-65W100%0.0
2-2Utah St. (128.6)WACH53-52W100%0.0
2-4Idaho (166.0)WACH68-72L0%0.0
2-9Hawaii (184.8)WACA0-057%2.1
2-11San Jose St. (278.9)WACA0-078%8.6
2-14Cal St. Bakersfield (215.6)indH0-089%13.4
2-18Iona (38.8)MAACA0-023%-8.2
2-25Fresno St. (181.5)WACA0-052%0.5
3-1New Mexico St. (69.2)WACH0-055%1.3
3-3Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACH0-086%11.8