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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Nevada

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:171.0
Current RPI:171
Expected SOS:51
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:185


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
11-1936.67%171.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nevada.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UC Irvine (125.0)BWA78-64L0%0.0
11-16Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)BWH80-77W100%0.0
11-17Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH71-69W100%0.0
11-18Southern Utah (314.0)BSkyH79-61W100%0.0
11-24Marshall (208.0)CUSAA89-82L0%0.0
11-28UC Davis (234.0)BWH84-83W100%0.0
11-30Drake (143.0)MVCH66-76L0%0.0
12-4Pacific (97.0)BWA78-72L0%0.0
12-8Washington (88.0)P12A73-76W100%0.0
12-11Cal Poly (164.0)BWH69-56W100%0.0
12-15San Francisco (167.0)WCCH59-51W100%0.0
12-28Yale (198.0)IvyH85-75W100%0.0
12-31Oregon (48.0)P12A56-43L0%0.0
1-9Air Force (80.0)MWCA78-65L0%0.0
1-12Wyoming (75.0)MWCH48-59L0%0.0
1-19Fresno St. (135.0)MWCA61-68W100%0.0
1-23San Diego St. (30.0)MWCH57-78L0%0.0
1-26Boise St. (45.0)MWCH75-59W100%0.0
1-29Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)MWCA66-54L0%0.0
2-2New Mexico (2.0)MWCA75-62L0%0.0
2-6Colorado St. (18.0)MWCH69-73L0%0.0
2-9Air Force (80.0)MWCH74-69W100%0.0
2-13Wyoming (75.0)MWCA68-48L0%0.0
2-19Fresno St. (135.0)MWCH64-69L0%0.0
2-23San Diego St. (30.0)MWCA88-75L0%0.0
2-27Boise St. (45.0)MWCA73-47L0%0.0
3-2Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)MWCH63-80L0%0.0
3-6New Mexico (2.0)MWCH62-75L0%0.0
3-9Colorado St. (18.0)MWCA77-66L0%0.0
3-12Wyoming (75.0)MWCN85-81L0%0.0