- Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog

Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:268.0
Current RPI:268
Expected SOS:116
Current Record:6-20
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:77


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Pacific.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Arizona (26.0)P12A79-61L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH76-77L0%0.0
11-21Nevada (118.0)MWCH82-85L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN70-63L0%0.0
11-29Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA79-71L0%0.0
12-4UC Irvine (75.0)BWH67-70L0%0.0
12-12Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA71-52L0%0.0
12-15Green Bay (112.0)HorzA93-88L0%0.0
12-21Santa Clara (251.0)WCCH73-72W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (228.0)WCCA89-76L0%0.0
12-31San Diego (302.0)WCCH77-75W100%0.0
1-2BYU (76.0)WCCH67-81L0%0.0
1-7Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA81-76L0%0.0
1-9Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCA58-60W100%0.0
1-14Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA78-62L0%0.0
1-21Portland (249.0)WCCH70-61W100%0.0
1-23Gonzaga (46.0)WCCH61-71L0%0.0
1-30Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCH65-68L0%0.0
2-4San Diego (302.0)WCCA54-43L0%0.0
2-6BYU (76.0)WCCA72-77W100%0.0
2-11Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH72-77L0%0.0
2-13Pepperdine (129.0)WCCH63-65L0%0.0
2-18Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA90-68L0%0.0
2-20Portland (249.0)WCCA80-67L0%0.0
2-25San Francisco (228.0)WCCH79-70W100%0.0
2-27Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA69-65L0%0.0