Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Gonzaga   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Gonzaga

Conference:WCC
Expected RPI:33.4
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:118
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:14-2
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:12-3
Expected OOC RPI:40
Expected OOC SOS:56


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
27-487.10%22.820.13%
26-583.87%29.836.87%
25-583.33%36.62.91%
26-681.25%34.60.44%
25-680.65%37.521.50%
24-680.00%44.68.14%
25-778.12%42.90.55%
24-777.42%45.54.89%
23-776.67%52.13.32%
24-875.00%51.20.17%
23-874.19%57.30.65%
22-873.33%62.90.35%
23-971.88%58.00.04%
22-970.97%69.50.02%
21-970.00%83.00.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Gonzaga.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi Valley St. (319.0)SWACH92-74W100%0.0
11-17Michigan St. (25.2)B10A71-75L0%0.0
11-20IUPU Fort Wayne (241.4)SumH90-55W100%0.0
11-23Colorado (138.2)B12N76-72W100%0.0
11-24Wisconsin (13.0)B10N74-61W100%0.0
11-25Cincinnati (60.3)BEN61-59W100%0.0
12-2Washington St. (114.2)P10H74-69W100%0.0
12-5Wake Forest (28.0)ACCH75-77L0%0.0
12-12Davidson (157.9)SCN103-91W100%0.0
12-19Duke (3.6)ACCN41-76L0%0.0
12-28Eastern Washington (288.7)BSkyH94-52W100%0.0
12-31Oklahoma (84.2)B12H83-69W100%0.0
1-2Illinois (78.6)B10N85-83W100%0.0
1-9Portland (82.2)WCCA81-78W100%0.0
1-14St. Mary's (38.5)WCCA89-82W100%0.0
1-16San Diego (227.5)WCCA68-50W100%0.0
1-21Pepperdine (285.5)WCCH91-84W100%0.0
1-23Loyola Marymount (209.2)WCCH85-69W100%0.0
1-28Santa Clara (224.8)WCCA71-64W100%0.0
1-30San Francisco (224.6)WCCA77-81L0%0.0
2-4Portland (82.2)WCCH76-49W100%0.0
2-6Memphis (62.6)CUSAA66-58W100%0.0
2-11St. Mary's (38.5)WCCH0-063%3.5
2-13San Diego (227.5)WCCH0-096%18.5
2-18Loyola Marymount (209.2)WCCA0-082%9.8
2-20Pepperdine (285.5)WCCA0-091%14.9
2-25Santa Clara (224.8)WCCH0-097%21.2
2-27San Francisco (224.6)WCCH0-097%20.7
3-2Cal St. Bakersfield (322.2)indH0-099%26.1