Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Texas   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

Texas

Conference:B12
Expected RPI:15.6
Current RPI:19
Expected SOS:34
Current Record:19-4
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:17.11%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC RPI:19
Expected OOC SOS:136


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
30-488.24%4.60.58%
29-585.29%5.93.70%
28-584.85%7.60.84%
27-584.38%8.40.65%
29-682.86%6.20.04%
28-682.35%7.59.63%
27-681.82%9.65.20%
26-681.25%11.33.33%
28-780.00%8.61.07%
27-779.41%9.910.34%
26-778.79%12.79.66%
25-778.12%15.87.86%
27-877.14%12.32.58%
26-876.47%14.06.68%
25-875.76%17.710.86%
24-875.00%21.97.51%
26-974.29%16.92.61%
25-973.53%20.93.66%
24-972.73%26.85.97%
23-971.88%31.72.94%
25-1071.43%22.90.83%
24-1070.59%29.50.72%
23-1069.70%35.11.64%
22-1068.75%42.50.54%
24-1168.57%30.40.08%
23-1167.65%40.00.08%
22-1166.67%42.40.19%
21-1165.62%50.70.14%
21-1263.64%53.50.02%
20-1262.50%63.50.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15UC Irvine (277.7)BWH89-42W100%0.0
11-18Western Carolina (101.6)SCH73-41W100%0.0
11-23Iowa (205.8)B10N85-60W100%0.0
11-24Pittsburgh (28.1)BEN78-62W100%0.0
11-29Rice (289.2)CUSAA77-59W100%0.0
12-3Southern California (82.3)P10H69-50W100%0.0
12-7Long Beach St. (139.6)BWH107-74W100%0.0
12-12Texas St. (255.7)SlndH87-54W100%0.0
12-15Texas Pan American (325.6)GWCH104-42W100%0.0
12-19North Carolina (82.0)ACCN103-90W100%0.0
12-22Michigan St. (25.2)B10H79-68W100%0.0
12-29Gardner Webb (306.0)BSthH95-63W100%0.0
1-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (139.9)SlndH76-70W100%0.0
1-5Arkansas (131.6)SECA96-85W100%0.0
1-9Colorado (138.2)B12H103-86W100%0.0
1-13Iowa St. (114.5)B12A90-83W100%0.0
1-16Texas A&M (26.5)B12H72-67W100%0.0
1-18Kansas St. (7.1)B12A62-71L0%0.0
1-23Connecticut (56.7)BEA74-88L0%0.0
1-27Texas Tech (58.4)B12H95-83W100%0.0
1-30Baylor (24.9)B12H77-80L0%0.0
2-1Oklahoma St. (50.6)B12A72-60W100%0.0
2-6Oklahoma (84.2)B12A71-80L0%0.0
2-8Kansas (1.9)B12H0-048%-0.4
2-13Nebraska (130.3)B12H0-093%15.8
2-17Missouri (37.7)B12A0-043%-2.0
2-20Texas Tech (58.4)B12A0-073%6.7
2-24Oklahoma St. (50.6)B12H0-087%12.3
2-27Texas A&M (26.5)B12A0-057%1.8
3-1Oklahoma (84.2)B12H0-093%15.9
3-6Baylor (24.9)B12A0-049%-0.4