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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

Idaho

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:177
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:9.67%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:231
Expected OOC SOS:274


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
20-1164.52%85.30.14%
19-1261.29%101.41.62%
18-1260.00%125.20.81%
17-1258.62%143.90.89%
18-1358.06%115.55.10%
17-1356.67%138.44.32%
16-1355.17%158.25.36%
17-1454.84%129.57.00%
16-1453.33%151.48.67%
15-1451.72%172.812.81%
16-1551.61%144.55.91%
15-1550.00%165.79.14%
15-1648.39%161.02.69%
14-1548.28%188.915.39%
14-1646.67%180.65.33%
14-1745.16%176.30.76%
13-1644.83%204.48.67%
13-1743.33%197.31.44%
13-1841.94%188.00.13%
12-1741.38%218.63.08%
12-1840.00%214.60.19%
12-1938.71%204.00.02%
11-1837.93%231.10.47%
11-1936.67%225.00.01%
10-1934.48%242.00.04%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Long Beach St. (34.1)BWA69-61L0%0.0
11-17Montana (98.6)BSkyA57-52L0%0.0
11-26Montana St. (263.1)BSkyH76-67W100%0.0
11-30Eastern Washington (207.6)BSkyH66-73L0%0.0
12-3UC Davis (342.3)BWA74-94W100%0.0
12-7Washington St. (167.4)P12H64-66L0%0.0
12-9Oregon St. (109.7)P12A60-74W100%0.0
12-11Seattle (289.4)indA62-73W100%0.0
12-17Cal St. Bakersfield (215.6)indH72-44W100%0.0
12-20Wright St. (219.7)HorzA80-78L0%0.0
12-22Wisconsin Green Bay (189.0)HorzA63-61L0%0.0
12-31Boise St. (184.5)MWCN76-73L0%0.0
1-5Nevada (62.2)WACH55-73L0%0.0
1-7Fresno St. (181.5)WACH63-59W100%0.0
1-12Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACA88-90W100%0.0
1-14New Mexico St. (69.2)WACA80-68L0%0.0
1-21Utah St. (128.6)WACH57-54W100%0.0
1-26San Jose St. (278.9)WACH74-66W100%0.0
1-28Hawaii (184.8)WACH70-76L0%0.0
2-2Fresno St. (181.5)WACA65-55L0%0.0
2-4Nevada (62.2)WACA68-72W100%0.0
2-7Seattle (289.4)indH0-083%10.3
2-9New Mexico St. (69.2)WACH0-044%-1.8
2-11Louisiana Tech (208.0)WACH0-079%8.7
2-18Portland St. (207.5)BSkyH0-077%8.1
2-24Utah St. (128.6)WACA0-033%-4.9
3-1Hawaii (184.8)WACA0-046%-1.0
3-3San Jose St. (278.9)WACA0-069%5.5