Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

The results on this page include CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED WEEKLY

For the daily updated  Troy   page without conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2010.

Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:109.6
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:173
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Record:15-6
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:204
Expected OOC SOS:111


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
17-1258.62%109.6100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-20Florida (54.2)SECA58-80L0%0.0
11-24UAB (45.3)CUSAA59-77L0%0.0
11-28Valparaiso (185.4)HorzN80-64W100%0.0
11-29Georgia Southern (288.0)SCA77-80L0%0.0
12-4Auburn (156.5)SECA81-77W100%0.0
12-12Marshall (67.3)CUSAA70-99L0%0.0
12-14Houston (126.1)CUSAA85-93L0%0.0
12-17New Orleans (323.2)SBH78-76W100%0.0
12-28Marshall (67.3)CUSAH75-78L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (273.3)SBA83-82W100%0.0
1-2Denver (164.4)SBH64-46W100%0.0
1-7Florida Atlantic (216.4)SBA69-83L0%0.0
1-9Florida International (296.0)SBA84-68W100%0.0
1-14North Texas (103.0)SBH72-75L0%0.0
1-16South Alabama (209.4)SBA67-69L0%0.0
1-21Western Kentucky (133.5)SBH77-69W100%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (245.4)SBA54-69L0%0.0
1-28Louisiana Monroe (273.3)SBH75-56W100%0.0
1-30South Alabama (209.4)SBH73-66W100%0.0
2-4Middle Tennessee (178.3)SBA70-67W100%0.0
2-6Western Kentucky (133.5)SBA69-87L0%0.0
2-13Florida International (296.0)SBH81-78W100%0.0
2-18Middle Tennessee (178.3)SBH66-62W100%0.0
2-20Florida Atlantic (216.4)SBH86-80W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas Little Rock (300.2)SBA76-73W100%0.0
2-27Arkansas St. (200.9)SBA64-57W100%0.0
3-7South Alabama (209.4)SBN67-55W100%0.0
3-8Western Kentucky (133.5)SBN54-48W100%0.0
3-9North Texas (103.0)SBN63-66L0%0.0