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Tweet Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Expected RPI:293.0
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:192
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Record:4-16
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:229
Expected OOC SOS:202


Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Florida (230.0)AmerA77-82W100%0.0
11-19UAB (88.0)CUSAH63-79L0%0.0
11-23Samford (252.0)SCN79-83L0%0.0
11-24Idaho (191.0)BSkyN69-63L0%0.0
11-25North Texas (295.0)CUSAA74-86W100%0.0
12-1Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH69-59W100%0.0
12-5Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH71-80L0%0.0
12-10Seton Hall (19.0)BEA78-69L0%0.0
12-22Mississippi (96.0)SECA83-80L0%0.0
12-30Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH81-84L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH61-67L0%0.0
1-7Georgia St. (180.0)SBA72-68L0%0.0
1-9Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA93-88L0%0.0
1-14UT Arlington (105.0)SBH63-90L0%0.0
1-16Texas St. (238.0)SBH66-57W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA85-74L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA88-65L0%0.0
1-26South Alabama (240.0)SBH58-66L0%0.0
1-28Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
2-4Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA72-49L0%0.0
2-6Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA70-71W100%0.0
2-11Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH71-77L0%0.0
2-13Georgia St. (180.0)SBH54-53W100%0.0
2-16South Alabama (240.0)SBA54-61W100%0.0
2-20Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA78-74L0%0.0
2-25Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH63-73L0%0.0
2-27Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH51-66L0%0.0
3-3Texas St. (238.0)SBA78-57L0%0.0
3-5UT Arlington (105.0)SBA90-55L0%0.0