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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:279.0
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:238
Current Record:12-21
Expected Record:12-21
Current Conf Record:7-15
Expected Conf Record:7-15
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-8
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:319


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
12-2136.36%279.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Mississippi St. (232.0)SECH56-53W100%0.0
11-12Texas A&M (102.0)SECA83-65L0%0.0
11-18Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACN46-70L0%0.0
11-19Chattanooga (292.0)SCA61-68W100%0.0
11-20Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)OVCN56-59W100%0.0
11-25Alabama St. (328.0)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
11-27UAB (144.0)CUSAH55-75L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBA58-56L0%0.0
12-1Western Kentucky (150.0)SBH71-75L0%0.0
12-8Utah Valley (297.0)GWCH82-86L0%0.0
12-13Alabama St. (328.0)SWACA74-68L0%0.0
12-15Georgia St. (209.0)CAAH57-56W100%0.0
12-19Utah Valley (297.0)GWCA67-64L0%0.0
12-27Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBH54-61L0%0.0
1-3North Texas (247.0)SBA76-59L0%0.0
1-5Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBH67-64W100%0.0
1-10Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBH64-55W100%0.0
1-17Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBA80-59L0%0.0
1-19Florida International (111.0)SBA61-55L0%0.0
1-24Arkansas St. (163.0)SBH74-67W100%0.0
1-26Louisiana Monroe (305.0)SBA64-71W100%0.0
1-31Western Kentucky (150.0)SBA65-61L0%0.0
2-2Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)SBH71-52W100%0.0
2-7South Alabama (154.0)SBA65-62L0%0.0
2-9Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBA93-41L0%0.0
2-14Florida International (111.0)SBH69-61W100%0.0
2-16North Texas (247.0)SBH61-63L0%0.0
2-21Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)SBA76-66L0%0.0
2-23Arkansas St. (163.0)SBA58-50L0%0.0
2-28Middle Tennessee (28.0)SBH56-66L0%0.0
3-2South Alabama (154.0)SBH49-53L0%0.0
3-8Florida Atlantic (218.0)SBN79-81W100%0.0
3-9Arkansas St. (163.0)SBN68-63L0%0.0