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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Troy

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:260.0
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:207
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Tourney Record:0-0
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:218
Expected OOC SOS:198


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
9-1833.33%260.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Troy.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas Tech (241.0)B12A90-85L0%0.0
11-19East Tennessee St. (179.0)ASunA81-71L0%0.0
11-22UAB (112.0)CUSAA71-59L0%0.0
11-26Southern Utah (232.0)SumA76-80W100%0.0
11-29East Tennessee St. (179.0)ASunH79-71W100%0.0
12-3Miami OH (247.0)MACH73-60W100%0.0
12-10Mississippi St. (75.0)SECA106-68L0%0.0
12-15Belmont (58.0)ASunA78-55L0%0.0
12-20Southern Utah (232.0)SumH80-72W100%0.0
12-22Texas San Antonio (196.0)SlndH70-76L0%0.0
12-29Denver (94.0)SBA79-62L0%0.0
12-31North Texas (200.0)SBA87-65L0%0.0
1-5Middle Tennessee (56.0)SBH53-63L0%0.0
1-7Western Kentucky (189.0)SBA65-67W100%0.0
1-14South Alabama (169.0)SBH60-75L0%0.0
1-19Florida Atlantic (207.0)SBH67-88L0%0.0
1-21Louisiana Monroe (317.0)SBH91-63W100%0.0
1-26Middle Tennessee (56.0)SBA71-58L0%0.0
1-29South Alabama (169.0)SBA68-66L0%0.0
2-2Florida International (251.0)SBH50-63L0%0.0
2-4Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)SBH78-83L0%0.0
2-11Western Kentucky (189.0)SBH83-77W100%0.0
2-16Arkansas St. (222.0)SBA83-59L0%0.0
2-18Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBH62-74L0%0.0
2-23Florida International (251.0)SBA70-75W100%0.0
2-25Florida Atlantic (207.0)SBA82-83W100%0.0
3-3South Alabama (169.0)SBN87-81L0%0.0