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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.

UAB

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:145.3
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:50
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Tourney Record:1-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.77%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:53


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Note that for results with very small probabilities, the estimate of the RPI is less precise.

Final RecordW-L pctg.Expected RPIProbability
19-1457.58%58.00.01%
17-1454.84%77.00.01%
18-1554.55%61.80.04%
16-1453.33%98.00.02%
17-1553.12%76.90.14%
16-1551.61%94.50.24%
17-1651.52%77.40.21%
16-1650.00%93.20.61%
15-1550.00%110.00.44%
16-1748.48%88.40.83%
15-1648.39%111.31.56%
15-1746.88%105.51.79%
14-1646.67%124.42.24%
15-1845.45%100.21.00%
14-1745.16%122.45.96%
14-1843.75%117.42.37%
13-1743.33%137.87.22%
14-1942.42%110.90.88%
13-1841.94%132.211.13%
13-1940.62%127.92.26%
12-1840.00%150.713.96%
13-2039.39%124.30.36%
12-1938.71%143.912.75%
12-2037.50%141.01.19%
11-1936.67%164.915.15%
12-2136.36%138.70.10%
11-2035.48%158.85.76%
11-2134.38%152.60.26%
10-2033.33%178.48.49%
10-2132.26%172.71.02%
9-2130.00%191.21.99%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UAB.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Creighton (20.8)MVCH60-70L0%0.0
11-20Murray St. (26.2)OVCH55-62L0%0.0
11-22Troy (271.9)SBH71-59W100%0.0
11-25Wichita St. (16.5)MVCA68-46L0%0.0
11-27Tennessee Martin (322.6)OVCH54-59L0%0.0
11-30South Alabama (197.2)SBA55-47L0%0.0
12-3Kent St. (82.5)MACA57-48L0%0.0
12-7Middle Tennessee (40.2)SBH66-56W100%0.0
12-20Virginia Commonwealth (69.1)CAAA68-49L0%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (287.3)ASunH70-65W100%0.0
12-28George Washington (201.7)A10A49-56W100%0.0
12-31Alabama A&M (329.8)SWACH92-58W100%0.0
1-3Florida (15.6)SECA79-61L0%0.0
1-7Memphis (33.9)CUSAH59-62L0%0.0
1-11Marshall (62.5)CUSAH59-61L0%0.0
1-14Southern Mississippi (18.6)CUSAA59-55L0%0.0
1-18Rice (181.0)CUSAA60-61W100%0.0
1-21Central Florida (74.9)CUSAH41-48L0%0.0
1-25Marshall (62.5)CUSAA49-56W100%0.0
1-28East Carolina (158.1)CUSAH66-73L0%0.0
2-1Houston (234.8)CUSAH80-69W100%0.0
2-4Texas El Paso (179.7)CUSAA60-61W100%0.0
2-8Southern Mississippi (18.6)CUSAH0-033%-4.8
2-11Memphis (33.9)CUSAA0-09%-14.6
2-15Southern Methodist (218.7)CUSAA0-050%0.1
2-18Tulane (171.5)CUSAH0-056%1.7
2-25East Carolina (158.1)CUSAA0-033%-4.8
2-29Tulsa (106.0)CUSAH0-047%-0.7
3-3Central Florida (74.9)CUSAA0-026%-7.1